SHEEP SECTOR
Review & Outlook
Declan Fennell
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
Friday 11 January
Wk ending 30 Dec
Irish Sheep Meat Production
2011 v’s 2012
TOTAL 2,171,242
2011
HOGGETS
LAMBS
EWES
& RAMS
[263,516]
[1,631,752]
275,974
+
68k
+
160k
HOGGETS
LAMBS
[331,015]
[1,791,981]
2012
Source: DAFFM
+
32K
EWES
& RAMS
308,287
TOTAL 2,431,283
+12% Increase | + 260k head | 20.28kg Av Carcass Wt | + 5,300 tonnes
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Wk ending 30 Dec
Irish Sheep Meat Production
2011 v’s 2012
TOTAL 2,171,242
2011
HOGGETS
LAMBS
EWES
& RAMS
[263,516]
[1,631,752]
275,974
+
68k
+
160k
HOGGETS
LAMBS
[331,015]
[1,791,981]
+
32K
EWES
& RAMS
2012
Source: DAFFM
308,287
TOTAL 2,431,283
How did 2012 finish?
Growing
the success of Irish 2.43m
food & horticulture
Slaughtering:
head
Production: 53,300t
Irish Sheep Prices
Period: 2009 - 2012
650
2011
478c
600
(Cent per KG)
550
500
2012
2010
462c
439c
450
400
2009
374c
350
300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Period: May – July
1. Price Stability
Transition from Hogget to New Season Lamb
700
2010
2012
2011
650
Ireland
600
Great Britain
550
500
Cent/KG
154
c/kg
450
74
42
c/kg
400
c/kg
350
300
May
June
July
May
June
July
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
May
June
July
Period 17 July – 22 December
2. Markets coped well with the additional supplies
23 consecutive weeks where the weekly kill was >55,000
2012
Throughput
+ 18%
2011
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Period: October - December
3. Producer Prices Slipped in Q4
600
2010
2011
2012
550
Ireland
Great Britain
40
c/kg
500
30
c/kg
Cent/KG
450
400
14
c/kg
350
Oct
Nov
Dec
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Period: October - December
3. Producer Prices Slipped in Q4
600
2010
2011
2012
550
Ireland
Great Britain
40
c/kg
500
30
c/kg
Cent/KG
450
400
14
c/kg
350
Oct
Nov
Dec
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Market Performance
Period: January – December 2012
SWEDEN
2,424t (+17%)
UK
11,318t
(+4%)
Netherlands
1,365t (+76%)
BELGIUM
2,129t (+35%)
GERMANY
2,508t (+29%)
Export Market
Volumes up 12%
Value up 7%
FRANCE
18,995t (+6%)
Hong Kong
680t
(+350%)
Source’: Bord Bia estimates based on CSO/GTIS
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Great Britain
Production:
- Inclement weather
- Output back by 8% (700,000 head/24,000 tonnes)
- Expected to lift in hogget numbers in Q1 2013
Market:
- Exports have eased in part to reduced supplies and pound
appreciating against euro
- Overall vol exports back 6% (France -12%)
- Exports to non EU markets growing (Hong Kong +250%)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
New Zealand
…….. production in recovery after a period of decline
‘000tonne cwe
410
390
LAMB PRODUCTION
370
WHY the decline?
350
Shift towards dairy
&
adverse weather ‘10
330
310
LAMB EXPORTS
290
270
250
2009
2010
2011
2012
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013
New Zealand Sheep Exports Grew by <1%
Period: January – October 2012
UK [+2%]
53,000t
Fr [-13%]
13,500t
DE [-6%]
US [-16%]
17,212t
15,9000t
China [+54%]
58,200t
Saudi [+15%]
16,500t
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Over NZ$1billion of New Zealand sheep meat products
exported to China in 2011
China in numbers
- # 1 market by volume
- 4th largest market by value
NZ$
- 2016 duty free access
achieved for NZ trade
Source: BLNZ New [NZ$]
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
• UK
• De
• US
• China
534m
275m
256m
247m
- 2016 duty free access achieved for NZ
Period: September – December
Global Sheep Meat Prices Easing
600
2010
2011
2012
550
500
Ireland
Great Britain
New Zealand
450
Cent/KG
400
350
300
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
2012
2013
NZ$ 6.37/kg
NZ$ 4.88/kg
Source: NZ Ministry for Primary Industries
15
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Markets
Carry over of hoggets | Production +6% | 50% exports FR
Production - 8% | poor domestic demand | targeting France
Breeding flock -5% | Lacaune lambs Spring ’13 | Import requirement +
Production + 3-5% | Shipping costs | Weather
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
| Market Priorities?
Irish Production Outlook 2013 ... 2-3% growth
7
6.4
Number of Sheep (Millions)
6
5
4
5.25
5.15
4.7
3.5
Total Flock
3
2.5
2.5
2.67
2
1
0
2005
2010
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2012
2013(e)
Breeding Flock
Irish Production Outlook 2013 ... 2-3% growth
7
Number of Sheep (Millions)
6
5
4
3
6.4
Challenges
Opportunities 5.25
5.15
- Input Costs
- 4.7
Domestic Consumption
- 3.5
Schmallenberg
- High Potential Markets
- Global Prices
2.5
2.5
2.67
- Market Access
2
1
0
2005
Easter 31 March | Ramadan 9 July | EID 15 October
2010
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2012
2013(e)
Total Flock
Breeding Flock