Beef Markets Outlook Mark Zieg January 2013
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Beef Markets Outlook January 2013 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture AIDAN COTTER Growing the success CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA of Irish28food & horticulture JANUARY 2009 Mark Zieg Irish Beef Markets Export Volumes by Destination (2012) Scandinavia 40,000 Exports 444,000 UK 231,000 Holland 36,000 Germany 15,000 France 46,000 Spain 11,000 Italy 41,000 Ireland Export Statistics Year To Date: January – October 2012 % Change Partner Country 2012/2011 World - 15.00 United Kingdom - 12.69 France - 10.74 Netherlands - 17.07 Italy - 16.41 Sweden - 3.08 Spain - 7.55 Germany - 1.43 Denmark - 14.77 Belgium - 12.98 Poland - 33.09 Portugal - 36.06 Ghana 84.05 Czech Republic - 36.67 Russia - 82.01 Switzerland - 16.18 Source: Eurostat Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture EU Consumption determined by Economic Situation 1600 Consumption: -1.2% in 2012 1400 1200 1000 800 2011 2012 600 400 200 0 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Source: EU Forecasting Group Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Consumption Outlook 2013 1600 Consumption: -1.2% in 2012 => -0.6% in 2013 1400 1200 1000 2011 800 2012 2013 600 400 200 0 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Source: EU Forecasting Group Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture EU Consumption Outlook Moderating 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 0.8% drop in EU consumption forecast : 2012-2020 6000 5500 5000 2009 2010 2011 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture 2012 2015 2020 Import & Export Developments in Main Markets Imports ‘000 t cwe 450 400 350 300 250 2011 200 2012 150 100 50 0 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark 600 500 400 2011 300 2012 200 100 0 France Italy UK Germany Spain Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark Import & Export Outlook Imports ‘000 t cwe 450 400 350 300 250 2011 200 2012 150 2013 100 50 0 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark 600 500 400 2011 300 2012 2013 200 100 0 France Italy UK Germany Spain Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Netherlands Sweden Belgium Denmark EU Trade Balance to 2012 ‘000 cwe 700 600 500 400 Imports Exports 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture 2010 2011 2012 EU-27 Imports of beef products ‘000 cwe Origins -45kt Brazil Uruguay -15kt 2008 tonnes 2009 % tonnes 2010 % tonnes 2011 % tonnes Jan-Sep 12 % 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791 38.2% 125 708 38.9% % to Jan-Sep 11 91 442 40.0% - 0.4% 79 144 18.4% 66 156 17.5% 51 217 15.9% 39 473 17.3% - 3.7% Argentina -30kt 92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4% 79 487 21.0% 62 517 19.4% 38 830 17.0% - 19.0% Australia 12 957 3.3% 16 937 3.9% 13 628 3.6% 18 017 5.6% 15 353 6.7% + 19.8% 6 547 1.7% 9 609 2.2% 15 290 4.0% 22 914 7.1% 15 106 6.6% - 0.4% New Zealand 12 455 3.2% 15 783 3.7% 13 669 3.6% 15 387 4.8% 12 787 5.6% + 1.2% Namibia 10 348 2.6% 12 457 2.9% 13 571 3.6% 8 975 2.8% 7 374 3.2% - 0.3% Switzerland 2 919 0.7% 4 394 1.0% 4 450 1.2% 5 662 1.8% 3 438 1.5% - 18.5% Chile 2 550 0.6% 3 158 0.7% 2 441 0.6% 2 253 0.7% 1 340 0.6% - 1.3% Serbia 1 784 0.5% 990 0.2% 1 127 0.3% 785 0.2% 427 0.2% - 27.2% 10 395 2.6% 11 452 2.7% 15 763 4.2% 980 0.3% 474 0.2% - 91.6% USA Botswana 66 402 16.8% tonnes Compared EXTRA EU 25/27395 063 % change 431 182 378 954 322 849 228 480 + 9% - 12% - 15% - 5.8% Source: Comext Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture EU-27 Exports of beef and live animals ‘000 cwe Destinations 2008 tonnes Turkey 204 Russia 2009 % 0.1% 102 347 35.1% Lebanon 5 619 1.9% Croatia 19 917 Sw itzerland 25 968 Algeria Other Destinations % change 571 % tonnes 2011 % tonnes Jan-Sep 12 % tonnes % Compared to Jan-Sep 11 0.2% 70 370 14.5% 166 737 26.2% 85 919 21.9% - 34.7% 50 881 20.4% 135 762 28.0% 138 635 21.8% 70 032 17.9% - 30.0% 3.1% 33 774 7.0% 22 568 3.6% 18 490 4.7% - 5.9% 6.8% 25 126 10.1% 23 159 4.8% 24 969 3.9% 17 336 4.4% - 7.3% 8.9% 19 072 7.7% 22 340 4.6% 26 431 4.2% 14 225 3.6% - 30.5% 6 681 2.7% 125 591 50.4% 16 151 168 757 3.3% 1.1% 11 399 2.9% 170 775 43.6% - 23.1% - 3.9% 1 689 0.6% 126 887 43.5% EXTRA EU 25/27 291 601 tonnes 2010 7 838 17 970 2.8% 237 927 37.5% 249 165 485 166 635 236 391 924 - 15% + 95% + 31% - 18.1% Source: Comext Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture EU Trade Balance Forecast 2020 ‘000 cwe 700 Import Levels to grow toward 400,000t 600 Exports slipping back to appprox.100,000t 500 400 Imports Exports 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture 2011 2012 2015 2020 World Beef Production 2009 - 2012 Overall decrease 425,000 tonnes / -0.2% 12000 10000 8000 2009 6000 2012 4000 2000 0 Argentina Brazil Uruguay Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture United States Australia World Beef Production Outlook Total beef production to increase 1% 2012 - 2020 12000 10000 8000 2009 2012 6000 2015 2020 4000 2000 0 Argentina Brazil Uruguay Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture United States Australia Global Beef Exports have Declined Overall decrease 352,000 tonnes / -0.7% 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 2009 1000 2012 800 600 400 200 0 Argentina Brazil Uruguay Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture United States Australia Global Exports to 2020 Growth of 2.7% 1,2m tonnes in global exports: 2012 - 2020 2500 2000 2009 1500 2012 2015 1000 2020 500 0 Argentina Brazil Uruguay Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture United States Australia Global beef Consumption and Imports ‘000 tonnes (cwe) Consumption 80,000.00 75,000.00 70,000.00 Growth of >10m tonnes in global Consumption: 2012 - 2021 65,000.00 60,000.00 2012 ‘000 tonnes (cwe) 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Imports Growth of 1,6m tonnes in global Imports: 2012 - 2021 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source OECD-FAO Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Summary – Beef Markets Outlook • Irish exports constrained in 2012 by supplies and price competition in some markets • EU consumption down 1.2% in 2012 - set to decline 0.8% by 2020 • Domestic production declines to create opportunities in Fr, It, UK & NL • Global beef exports declined by 350 tonnes in the last 3 years but likely to increase again by 2020 • Strongest international Import growth will be focussed on emerging and developing markets Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Thank You Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
