Status and futures in the fishmeal
industry
By Gunn Strandheim
Irish Pelagic Seminar
Killybegs, Ireland
11th of November - 2011
Global fishmeal production
Subject.
• Resource situation in the fishmeal industry
• Current global fishmeal production
• Global fishmeal/fishoil usage
• Future demand for fishmeal/oil
• Prices and price drivers
• Vegetable substitutes
Catch of main pelagic species for
fishmeal & oil production
(Peruvian anchovy, Jurel, sardines)
1000 tonnes
14.000
Fishing in Peru and Chile
12.000
Chile
10.000
Peru
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
Catch of main pelagic species for fishmeal & oil
production in Europe
Fishing of Blue Whiting, Sandeel, Sprat, Capelin
1000 tonnes
6.000
5.000
Faeroe
Other EU
4.000
Norway
Iceland
Denmark
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
Raw material from direct landings to the
fishmeal industry in Norway
1000 tonnes
900
Others
Capelin
Blue Whiting
800
700
Sandeel
Herring
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
Price development for species used for fishmeal
and oil production.
NOK/kg
Price development pelagic species delivered to fishmeal
production in Norway
Source: NSSL
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Jan - Oct Jan - Oct
10
11
Estimated volumes of cuttings from the herring
fillet industry in Norway
1000 tonnes
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011E
Estimate of global fishmeal By - product production in 2008
Estimate of global fishmeal By - product production in 2008
Producing
country
Thailand
Japan
Chile
USA
Mexico
Iceland
Russia
Denmark
Canada
Norway
Total
Others
Total World
Fishmeal
production
468
203
673
216
106
141
71
161
31
135
2.205
2.612
4.817
Share %
By-product
60 %
90 %
14 %
25 %
50 %
32 %
50 %
20 %
100 %
22 %
By- product
production
281
183
94
54
53
45
36
32
31
30
838
390
1.228
15 %
25 %
source:IFFO
World fishmeal production
historical development
World fishmeal production
8.000
7.000
6.000
1000 tonnes
5.000
60 %
Others
Chile
50 %
Peru
Share Peru & Chile
4.000
40 %
30 %
3.000
20 %
2.000
10 %
1.000
0
0%
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
World fishmeal production by country
World fishmeal production by country
7.000
Others
Norway
Chile
6.000
USA
Iceland
Peru
UK/Ireland
Denmark
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 E
2011 E
World fishoil production
Production of fishoil world wide 1980 - 2011 E
1.800
1.600
1000 tonnes
1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
400
200
0
Percentage of fishmeal usage per market 2000
3%
9%
35 %
29 %
24 %
Aquaculture
Poultry
Pigs
Ruminants
Other
Percentage of fishmeal usage per market 2009
4%
25 %
Aquaculture
Poultry
Pigs
8%
63 %
Other
Percentage of fishoil usage per market 2009
6%
13 %
Aquaculture
Direct human cons.
Other
81 %
Percentage of fishoil usage in aquaculture 2009
1%
0%
3% 3%
6%
19 %
Crustaceans
Marine fish
Salmon & Trout
Eels
Cyprinids
Tilapias
Other
68 %
200
0
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Estimated growth in aquaculture
production 2010 – 2030 (4,5% a year)
Mill tonnes
250
Aquaculture
Catch
150
100
50
0
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Estimated growth in aquaculture
production 2010 – 2030 (2% a year)
Mill tonnes
200
180
Aquaculture
160
Catch
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Factors affecting the fishmeal
market and the prices.
• General economic situation (financial crisis etc.)
• Commodity market
• Prices on substitutes (soyameal, rapemeal etc)
• Supply situation
World largest fishmeal importers
Fishmeal import in main markets
1000 tonnes
3.000
Japan
2.500
EU
China
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
World largest fishmeal exporters
1000 tonnes
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
USA
Ireland
Norway
Chile
UK
Iceland
Peru
Faeroe Island
Denmark
Fishmeal prices – the big picture
Development Fishmeal prices, CIF Hamburg
Jan 1991 - Sep 2011
USD/tonnes
2.100
EL Nino
1.900
1.700
1.500
1.300
1.100
900
700
500
300
EL Nino
Development in import price – China
Average import price fishmeal to China
2.000
1.800
1.600
USD/tonne
1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
2009
400
2010
2011
200
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Fishmeal and Soyameal Jan 03 - Sep 11
7
Fishmeal price
6
Soyameal price
5
Ratio FM/SBM
4
3
2
1
0
Ratio
USD/tonne
Fishmeal price versus soyameal
price
100
sep.11
jun.11
mar.11
des.10
sep.10
jun.10
mar.10
des.09
sep.09
jun.09
mar.09
des.08
USD/tonne
500
sep.08
jun.08
mar.08
des.07
sep.07
jun.07
mar.07
des.06
sep.06
Price development wheat
Wheat
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
sep.11
jun.11
mar.11
des.10
sep.10
jun.10
mar.10
des.09
sep.09
jun.09
mar.09
des.08
sep.08
USD/tonne
jun.08
mar.08
des.07
sep.07
jun.07
mar.07
des.06
sep.06
Price development maize
Maize (corn)
350
300
250
200
150
aug. 11
jun. 11
apr. 11
feb. 11
des. 10
okt. 10
aug. 10
jun. 10
apr. 10
feb. 10
des. 09
okt. 09
aug. 09
jun. 09
apr. 09
feb. 09
des. 08
okt. 08
aug. 08
jun. 08
apr. 08
feb. 08
des. 07
okt. 07
aug. 07
jun. 07
apr. 07
feb. 07
des. 06
okt. 06
aug. 06
jun. 06
apr. 06
feb. 06
des. 05
okt. 05
aug. 05
jun. 05
apr. 05
feb. 05
des. 04
okt. 04
aug. 04
jun. 04
apr. 04
feb. 04
des. 03
okt. 03
aug. 03
jun. 03
apr. 03
feb. 03
dec 02
700
-200
500
-400
900
0
1900
Production less exports IFFO-6 - accumulated last 12 months
Price Hamburg
1000
2100
1200
1700
600
1500
400
1300
200
1100
Price (USD/Tonne)
800
Quantity (1000 tonnes)
Change in fishmeal inventories IFFO-6 countries
Fishmeal - production and exports versus price Dec 02 - Sep 11
Fishmeal inventories in China
Fishmeal stock - end of month
250
1000 tonnes
200
150
100
2009
50
2010
2011
0
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Summary
• Increased competition for raw material for
fishmeal and fishoil production.
• Increased focus on cuttings from the industry
• Stable or slightly declining world fishmeal
production
• Future use of fishmeal will be limited to
aquaculture
• The fishmeal price will be less dependent of
prices of substitutes.
• Continued high prices with ups and downs in
short cycles.
Thank you very much!!!