Market Prospects for Sheepmeat
January 2010
Presentation Outline
•
Irish Sheep Industry
– Numbers
– Exports
– Prices
•
Main EU markets
•
Global Supply & Markets
- Conclusions
Irish Sheep numbers
Total & Breeding flock (million head), in June.
8
Total Flock
7.5
Breeding flock
7
6
5
5.1
4.13
4
3.7
3.5
3.2
3
2.9
2.7
2007
2008
4.8
2.5
2
1
0
2000
2004
2005
2006
2009
Sheep supplies at meat export plants
Annual sheep throughput at meat
export plants, ‘000 head
•
Annual throughput fell by over 6% to
2.42 million head
•
Average carcass weight 2009
19.4kg (-1% vs 2008)
•
In 2010, throughput expected to fall
by 4% to 2.32 million head.
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Live exports
Irish live sheep exports, 08 versus 09 YTD
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Live exports have risen by a third to 88,800 head YTD
2008
Jan-Dec 31st
2009
Jan-Dec 8th
Export Markets
Sheepmeat exports, 2009
Exports
Other,
- 40,500 tonnes (-3%)
Germany, 4%
12%
- €166m (-1%)
Sweden, 4%
- Boneless exports >35%
Italy, 5%
- France 21,000 tonnes
- UK 10,000 tonnes
- Improved demand for light lamb
UK, 25%
- In 2010,exports to fall below 40,000 tonnes
France, 50%
Irish Producer Prices
Average price: €3.74/kg (+1.1.%)
450.0
400.0
350.0
300.0
J
F
M
A
M
2008 c/kg
J
J
A
S
O
N
2009 c/kg
French price: €5.80/kg (+3%)
Great Britain price: €4.02/kg (+8%)
Northern Ireland Price: €383.9/kg (+4%)
D
Irish Market
• Irish Market
- Accounts for 30% of output
- Retail volumes back 9% (Nov 2008/09)
- Tighter consumer spending as resulted in
lower penetration, frequency & purchasing
volumes
- The food service also difficult
EU-27 Supplies / Consumption
EU-27 Supply Balance 09/10
•
EU Supplies and Consumption, ‘000 Tonnes
Production 2009 - 0.97m tonnes
- 2010 forecast – down 2%
1,500
•
1,000
Consumption 2009 – 1.23m tonnes
- 2010 forecast – down more than 2%
•
500
Imports 2009 - 0.266m tonnes
- 2010 forecast – a slight increase
0
2006
2007
2008
Production
2009
Consumption
UK Supplies
'000 head
16,000
'000 cwe
330
Breeding Flock & Net Production
320
15,000
310
296,000
300
14,000
290
280
13,000
270
12,000
260
2007
2008
2009(f)
2010(f)
Breeding Flock(Dec)
Net Production
2011(f)
French Sheep Meat supply balance
‘000 tonnes
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 f
6,649
6,463
6,273
5,972
5,570
Production (‘000 tns)
129
126
118
109
114
Imports (‘000 tns)
145
135
135
138
134
Consumption
262
250
243
237
238
Breeding Flock (‘000hd)
New Zealand
Production
500
NZ Sheepmeat Production
('000 tns cwe)
446
450
-
Export lamb supplies down 17% in
2008/09.
412
398
400
350
-
-
Export lamb supplies to increase by
over 4% in 2009/2010
Retention of breeding hoggets/
better lambing percentages
- Total sheepmeat exports for the first
10 months of 2009 fell by 15% to
315,000 tonnes
300
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 (f)
New Zealand Monthly Export Lamb
Slaughter '000 head
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
-
Shipments to the EU have fallen by
6% to 156,200, for first 10 months.
1,500
1,000
500
-
The EU still accounts for 50% of
exports
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2003-08 ann av
2008/09
Conclusions
•
Further decline in Irish availability
•
Lower EU production predicted
– French production likely to increase
– UK production likely to fall
•
Global supply -Greater volumes of chilled lamb entering the EU market
•
Exchange rates likely to remain important considering the weakness in
Sterling and the NZD last year.
•
Tighter supplies to offset drop in consumption