W&SWiiJ HD28 .MA 14 ALFRED P. WORKING PAPER SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT DIFFUSION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OUTSOURCING: INFLUENCE SOURCES AND THE KODAK EFFECT Lawrence Loh and N. Venkatraman Working 'King Paper No. 3476-92BPS c October 1992 345 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02139 DIFFUSION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OUTSOURCING: INFLUENCE SOURCES AND THE KODAK EFFECT Lawrence Loh and N. Venkatraman Working Paper No. 3476-92BPS October 1992 NI.I.T. NOV LIBRAh I 1992 Diffvsion of Information Technology Outsourcing: Influence Sources and the Kodak Effect Lawrence Loh Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50 Memorial Drive E52-509 Cambridge 02139 (617) 253-3857 MA N. Venkatraman Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50 Memorial Drive E52-537 Cambridge 02139 MA (617) 253-5044 Version: September 15, 1992 Forthcoming in Information Systems Research Submitted: January 9, 1991; Accepted: October 3, 1992 Acknowledgements. This research was supported by the consortium on Managing Information Technology in the Next Era (MITNE) of the Center for Information Systems Research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and IBM's Advanced Business Institute. thank two associate editors and three journal reviewers for comments on earlier versions of the manuscript. We Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing: Influence Sources and the Kodak Effect Abstract The governance infrastructure is of an organizational information technology (IT) steadily shifting away from pure hierarchical mechanisms toward hybrid and partnership modes In particular, IT outsourcing has recently emerged and market that involve external vendors. as a significant administrative innovation in an organization's IT strategy. This paper seeks to explore the sources of influence in the adoption of this innovation. For this purpose, comprehensive sample of outsourcing contracts in the U.S. we generated a using an electronic bibliometric search process. Using diffusion modeling, our empirical analysis that the adoption of IT outsourcing imitative behavior) than Subsequently, we is motivated more by internal influence (or by external influence amongst the user organizations. considered the widely-publicized Eastman Kodak's outsourcing decision as a critical event to assess whether this internal influence pronounced show shows in the post-Koda^ r that internal influence is gime than dominant in the in the is more pre-Kodak regime. Our results post-Kodak regime but not in the pre- Kodak regime. Implications and directions for future research are discussed. Keywords: Diffusion models; information technology governance; information technology outsourcing; information technology strategy. Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Introduction In recent years, the has shifted beyond its governance of information technology traditional hierarchical locus towards a (IT) infrastructure hybrid mode involving external organizations. The newer approaches include joint ownership of IT networks (e.g., in an industry-wide electronic data interchange), co-development of applications software (e.g., in a multi-company consortium) as well as several other types of partnerships between users and vendors. Within such a spectrum, focus on one governance outsourcing of all mode that has become prominent we in recent years: or significant components of the user's IT infrastructure. In simple terms, this involves the transfer of property or decision rights in varying degrees over the IT infrastructure by a user organization to an external organization such as a technology vendor or a systems integrator. The trend toward IT outsourcing Dearden (1987), who argued is proffered in a prognostic that the IT organization is "withering away" as end- users gain greater control of their computing environments and more importantly, as external software specialists increasingly take charge of corporate development. Indeed, this shift in IT governance multi-billion dollar outsourcing market. Group estimated billion, A to reach all in IT sectors. vendor. 3 is On Inc. a similar vein, two other separately forecasted that the rapidly evolving. market encompasses organizations Many types of outsourcing totaled $33 outsourcing would be about 17% for 5 years after 1990. 2 The IT outsourcing business side, the currently characterized by a $49 billion in 1994. ! In consulting organizations: G2 Research and Input, annual growth rate systems leading IT consulting firm, The Yankee that outsourcing revenues for and are expected is commentary by On the in the for-profit demand and (i.e., user) not-for-profit users in these different sectors are simultaneously served by the the supply (i.e., vendor) side, the industry is same dominated by the top five vendors: Anderson Consulting, Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC), Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), Electronic Data Systems Corp. (EDS), and International Business Machine Corp. Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing (IBM). All these IT suppliers provide a full range of outsourcing services across multiple industries and sectors. 4 '5 With the increasing significance this innovative administrative practice of IT outsourcing as a viable strategic option, is being viewed with considerable attention within the professional community. Against this backdrop and the high potential profits in the marketplace, 6 there has manage been an aggressive push by the vendors to the IT infrastructure of the users. For instance, Martin Marietta Information Systems Group ran an advertisement with the caption: "You don't plant for your electricity ... Why own a data center for own a power your information systems?" 7 and Information Week — two leading industry publications Further, Computerworld have devoted extensive coverage of the outsourcing phenomenon. As a Merrill Lynch outsourcing analyst put rolling downhill. This current year among it, this industry is "a huge, burgeoning snowball not a market that's burning out is the leading outsourcers will be intensified scramble for differentiation, jockeying in values." 8 a curious In this light, anomaly The centers, hopes will build it IBM agreement, and 300 Kodak workers to cut costs as impact of ..hr fierce competition, an ranks and staggering deal has been contended that "outsourcing suddenly went from interest in IT outsourcing escalated to this marked by exploding... the to a veritable craze." 9 agreement under which According it -- it's much as this large contract when IBM announced "an unusual and operate a data center for work done by four Kodak "will take over the will become IBM employees." 50% by turning Eastman Kodak." 10 In addition, the operation over to IBM." "Kodak ... The involving two prominent companies had been profound: IT outsourcing suddenly became a serious strategic choice for firms, and the "consideration of outsourcing" emerged as one of the top ten issues for success (or survival) in the 1990s. 11 Within the research community, IT governance as an important component of IT strategy is in conceptual beginning to be recognized frameworks (Henderson Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing and Venkatraman, 1992) and analytical models (Richmond, Seidmann and Whinston, 1992; Whang, 1992). Empirical studies on IT governance adopting sectional b). approach are beginning a cross- appear recently (Loh and Venkatraman, 1992a, to This paper adds to the empirical stream by adopting a longitudinal approach to explore the sources of influence underlying the diffusion process of IT outsourcing as an administrative innovation. used by Mahajan, Sharma, and We apply the analytical models of diffusion as Bettis (1988) in the case of M-form organizational structure but with a significant methodological (multidivisional) improvement through our more powerful nonlinear estimation and specification Specifically, we: April 1988 to (a) sample of 60 outsourcing decisions identify a August 1990 using an tests. in the U.S. from electronic bibliometric search; (b) adopt nonlinear estimation methods and specification tests to examine the sources of influence — internal, external, of outsourcing; and differential that could explain the diffusion pattern the prominent Kodak outsourcing decision as a 'critical- (c) treat event' in delineating and mixed — two regimes — "pre-Kodak" and "post-Kodak ' to assess the impacts of the influence sources within each of the regimes. TJieoretical Perspectives IT Outsourcing as an Administrative Innovation In general terms, outsourcing falls within a class of decisions in an organization. manufacturing of parts It in the "make-versus-buy" has been studied in several settings such automobile industry (e.g., Walker and Weber, the sales function in the electronic industry (Anderson, 1985); of equipment, components, and Weitz, We and supplies across a broad as: the 1984); and the distribution set of industrial firms (John 1988). define IT outsourcing as the significant contribution by external vendors of the physical and/or human resources associated with the components of the IT infrastructure entire or specific in the user organization. 12 This definition consistent with recent discussions of IT outsourcing by researchers and is practitioners. Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing For instance, Elam (1988) suggested the possible use of three forms of cooperative arrangement (i.e., full-equity ownership, partial ownership, and no ownership) involving external vendors that can be used for the joint development of corporate information systems. Further, a leading FT periodical described outsourcing as the "turning over, or sharing, responsibility for all or part of an organization's information technology function with a third party." 13 We how argue that FT outsourcing represents firms govern or manage a fundamental point of departure their FT infrastructure, an administrative innovation (Teece, 1980; Mahajan and hence could be viewed et. al., and Koh (1992) defined an administrative innovation 1988). in as Venkatraman, Loh, as "involving significant changes in the routines (or behavioral repertoires) used by the organization to deal with (a) its tasks of internal arrangements and external alignments." This definition reflects the critical notion of first-time adoption Zaltman, Duncan, and Holbeck, 1984); (b) by an organization (Rogers, the changes in the routines 1983; and procedures of organization and management involving substantial set-up costs and organizational disruptions (Nelson and Winter, 1982); and (c) a comprehensive view of administrative tasks as organization-environment coalignment (Thompson, 1967; Snow and Miles, Table 1 1983). summarizes our arguments supporting the treatment of FT outsourcing as an administrative innovation. the mode of governance -- First, it represents a significant shift in from the traditional locus of control and coordination within the hierarchy (combined with relatively standardized market transactions with vendors) towards newer modes that could be characterized as hybrids (Williamson, 1991) or partnerships (Kanter, 1989; Powell, 1990). As Markus (1984: pp. 125-127) articulated: 'In the early days of computing, in-house development was the only alternative available to those organizations that wished to explore the commercial potential of computers.... most companies with sizeable internal development efforts usually run most of their applications on internally owned and Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Table 1 IT Outsourcing as an Administrative Innovation Key Component of the Definition of Administrative Innovation Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing operated computers." A good example of a recent outsourcing contract involving a fundamental reorganization of the IT function outsourced a major part of its is General Dynamics Corp. that has IT infrastructure (with 2600 employees and a data center of over 1000 MIPS) to the Computer Sciences Corp. mode of governance is its In fact, such a shift in associated with profound transformations in the strategic and operational mechanisms within -14 that are necessary for current mission or scope. It is an organization .... view consistent with Evan's (1966: p. 51) administrative innovation as "the implementation of an idea for a pertaining to to position itself new of policy the allocation of resources, structuring of tasks, authority, of rewards." Second, IT outsourcing represents significant changes the user organizations. Kanter (1989: p. 141) in the internal processes of argued that multi-organizational partnerships alter "internal roles, relationships, and power dynamics for the organizations entering into them." This perspective applies well to IT outsourcing in many left cases. behind to As a leading IT periodical observed, "Information mind may suddenly the shop after parts of their operations have been outsourced out of water: They're forced to learn almost an entirely feel like fish different set of job systems executives skills.... A large bulk of the responsibility IS overseeing outsourcing contracts is managers take on in monitoring the outsourcing vendor's work." 15 This clearly calls for a principal adjustment in the nature and degree of internal routines. For example, a large oil with just five managers within have the responsibility for and mining company its for changes mechanisms -- ensuring that their department develops an internal IT by virtue of in internal processes for joint and operations left IT organization. 16 These managers, however, role that supports the firm's business strategy. that IT outsourcing was that has outsourced its Beyond this specific case, radical shift in the locus of we argue governance involving redefinitions of liaison roles, -- calls new decision-making in areas such as development, maintenance of the IT infrastructure, allocation of critical resources given possible Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing divergence in goals, and redistribution of authority as well as criteria for performance appraisal. Third, IT outsourcing constitutes a significant change in the organizational away from an routines used to deal with the external environment. Specifically, a shift arms-length approach for dealing with the IT marketplace (with multiple competing bids and price-dominated short-term contracts) towards a "quasi-firm" mode (with longer-term alliances involving a few selected partners) requires increased mutual understanding, enhanced goal compatibility and recognition of complementary skills and requirements. For instance, National Car Rental System, the operational National and management EDS planned its IT infrastructure to EDS. 17 to jointly initially installed at National Inc. As part has outsourced of this alliance, develop applications and systems that would be but could subsequently be marketed to other car rental companies. This implies that the routines for dealing with the external partner are different from the traditional user-vendor relationship as development and changes (beyond merely renting outsourcing may involves joint- business scope of National Car Rental System in the cars). it As Kirkpatrick new form point toward a (1991: p. 112) noted, "Ultimately, of corporate interdependence with implications that extend beyond the computer room." A Diffusion-of-Innovation Perspective The diffusion of an innovation communicated through system" (Rogers, 1983: the process by certain channels over time p. 5). this (any idea, object, or practice that of individuals which the innovation among the members "is of a social Extant research in this area (see for instance, Mahajan and Peterson, 1985) describes community is process using four is critical perceived to be new); the and/or organizations innovation), the channels of communication (the elements: the innovation social system (the that are potential adopters of the means by which information is transmitted to or within the social system); and time (the rate or speed by which members of the social system adopt the innovation). This perspective has been Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing adopted to 10 understand the pattern of diffusion of a wide range of innovations technological and administrative innovations (see Mahajan, Muller, and Bass, 1990 for a recent review pertaining to the case of marketing). In the context of IT innovations, the diffusion approach has been used in studies such for modern software practices, Brancheau and Wetherbe (1990) for as: Zmud (1983) spreadsheet software, Gurbaxani (1990) for BITNET, and Nilakanta and Scamell (1990) for database design tools and techniques This paper is where the relevant concerned with IT outsourcing as an administrative innovation social system is the set of organizations leveraging IT infrastructures to achieve their mission. Specifically, our referent encompasses the computer-using organizations that might consider the adoption of IT outsourcing. Channels of communication in IT outsourcing take horizontal channel (namely: another -- for how the members community two forms: of a social system interact with example, through direct interpersonal contacts or indirect observations within the IT user community) and vertical channel (namely: members one of a social system interact with the outside agents -- for how the example, through promotional efforts by the IT vendors, results of research studies or summaries of state-of-the-art practices from other countries). Rogers and Agarwala-Rogers (1976: p. 7) related organizational decision making: "an organization is communication an elaborate to set of interconnected communication channels designed to import, sort, and analyze information from the environment and export processed messages back to the environment. Communication provides a means for making and executing decisions, obtaining feedback, and correcting organizational objectives and procedures as the situation demands" Communication can also be facilitated within the context of a professional network comprising corporate executives across different organizations (Blair, Roberts, communication is and McKechnie, 1985; Mueller, 1986). Thus an integral aspect of the diffusion model. The inter-temporal Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 11 pattern of outsourcing contract announcements represents the time element of the diffusion of IT outsourcing. Influence Sources in the Diffusion of IT Outsourcing two In diffusion models, there are external — — an innovation by members of that drive the adoption of In addition, these basic types of influence two can be aggregated to constitute what is internal and a social system. termed as mixed influence. Internal influence. This perspective purports that diffusion takes place solely through channels of communication within a specific community or social system. The diffusion rate can be represented as: ^^- = qN(t)[m-N(t)] dt where N(t) is (1) the cumulative number of adoptions at time period and coefficient of internal influence (q>0), the social system. A plot of N(t) with The internal-influence model model (Mahajan and Peterson, increase in the the number t is of adoption is the potential results in a standard q number is the of adopters in S-shaped curve. structurally equivalent to the imitation 1985: p. 17). As evident in the equation, the rate of depends on the extent community have already adopted for diffusion is m t, in which the members of the innovation. In other words, the impetus an emulation of prior adopters by potential adopters. In our study, imitation in the adoption of IT outsourcing have hitherto maintained may take place their IT function inhouse, make when organizations, that their sourcing choice based on other organizations that have already outsourced. The internal-influence model has received empirical support from well-cited studies such as Griliches (1957) and Mansfield (1961). In the former study, Griliches analyzed the diffusion of hybrid seed corn amongst farmers in crop-reporting areas within the U.S. In the latter study, Mansfield examined the diffusion of several industrial innovations such as pallet loaders, diesel locomotives, and continuous Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing mining machines among more firms. In a 12 recent work, investigated the comparative diffusion pattern of mechanisms (specifically, joint ventures that the internal-influence The authors argued the innovation model that this which is is and M-form structures) verified conceptually due to the relative ease of imitability of and communication are instrumental factors: in the diffusion of (i.e., unique Within social complexity. Brancheau and Wetherbe (1990) proposed that internal amongst was -- it in the case of joint ventures. brought about by the absence of three is et al. (1992) two corporate governance more appropriate historical conditions, causal ambiguity, of Venkatraman IS research, interpersonal) channels spreadsheet software later adopters. External influence. This perspective specifies that diffusion is driven only by information from a communication source external to the social system. Thus, the rate of diffusion at time t is dependent only on the potential number of adopters present in the social system at time t without attributing any diffusion between ^rior adopters and potential adopters. Formally, this to interaction model can be written as: _= dN(t) m/*m r p[ m-N(t)] (2) where p is the coefficient of external influence (p>0). Plotting N(t) with curve that increases at a decreasing rate. In the specific t results in a context of our study, external influence on the potential adopters of IT outsourcing can emanate from efforts by vendors (e.g., EDS and or trade periodicals IBM), consulting firms (e.g., (e.g., The Yankee Group and Input, Inc.) Computerworld and Information Week). The external-influence model has been empirically supported by Coleman, Katz, and Menzel (1966) where the diffusion of a new drug amongst being studied in four midwestern communities. The model when members innovation is of a social system are isolated or when is physicians is especially appropriate information on the not obtained through interpersonal (or interorganizational) communication but has its origins from outside the system (Mahajan and Peterson, Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 1985). Venkatraman et al. (1992) inherent in the diffus on of ; 13 established that external-influence M-form structures, arguably due external information channels can facilitate the diffusion of practices (or new system development methodologies) and is to the imperfect Zmud imitability of the innovation. Within the IS literature, model (1983) verified that modern software this is contingent on organizational factors such as size, professionalism, task complexity, and context. Brancheau and Wetherbe (1990) argued that early adopters are more external channels of communication (i.e., mass media) in the likely to rely on adoption of spreadsheet software. Nilakanta and Scamell (1990) found limited support for the influence of external information sources diffusion of database design tools Nidumolu, Ramiller, and Ward, and communication channels and techniques (see also 1991). In a recent review, Swanson, in the Fuller, Gurbaxani, King, Kraemer, McFarlan, Raman, and Yap (1990) highlighted that several external institutions (e.g., governments, international agencies, and educational institutions) are critical in shaping the international diffusion of IT. Mixed influence. This perspective influence models ^p internal- and external- and can be represented by the following equation: = [p+qN(t)][m-N(t)] The cumulative distribution of the mixed-influence generalized logistic curve the subsumes both the model gives whose S-shape depends on the coefficients p most general form and widely used because the assumptions external- or the internal-influence rise to a and q. It is of either the models are seldom met unequivocally. The mixed-influence model has been successfully applied in the work of Bass (1969) where the sales of several electric appliances are being forecasted. In the IT arena, Gurbaxani (1990) discovered more that the diffusion of specifically, a logistic curve. of coverage The impetus BITNET followed for its diffusion by the media and the early adoption by highly universities. was a S-curve, or a combination visible research Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Based on the above discussion, we 14 seek to assess the influence type that captures the pattern of diffusion of IT outsourcing. Research Question 1: Wliat Our first research question is: source of influence best characterizes the diffusion of IT outsourcing? Kodak's Outsourcing as a Critical Event In July 1989, its Kodak announced a unique contract under which data center operations to three IBM.™ it outsourced This involved a transfer of four data centers and hundred IT personnel within the IT function of Kodak to IBM. 19 We will argue that this specific case constitutes a critical event in the overall pattern of diffusion of outsourcing. In particular, differ before The and we seek to test whether the types of underlying influence after this critical event. possibility that one single adoption can drive the diffusion of innovations has been documented in the management literature. Rogers and Kincaid (1981) argued cogently that adoption by an opinion leader can have a profound effect on subsequent adoptions. This is because opinion leaders have connections to multiple and diverse sources of relevant information; in addition, they usually occupy boundary-spanning and central positions within the network of potential adopters. In general, such personnel serves to reduce the incidence of uncertainty inherent in the process of adoption by providing information access, sources of reliability, and symbols of legitimacy to potential adopters. In the IT context, MIS opinion training of users leaders can facilitate the promotion of (McLeod and Fuerst, 1982) as well as foster new applications and MIS infusion (Kwon, 1990). The most appropriate example case of BITNET (Gurbaxani, 1990). the City University of New of a critical adoption driving diffusion BITNET was is the established through a link between York and Yale University. Subscription to the network was based on the operating philosophy that a new adopter has to provide a line to the nearest network node. In the formative stages, BITNET was confined to institutions ^ Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing in the U.S. east coast. As Gurbaxani BITXET was evolution of "A (1990: p. 74) noted, 15 significant event in the the adoption by the University of California at Berkeley. who This greatly lowered the access costs to other western universities subsequently joined the network." We build on Gurbaxani (1990) by considering a critical event and develop two regimes to see the differential types of influence on the diffusion pattern. Specifically, we consider Kodak's decision as a critical event for the following reasons: One, this represented a higher level of visibility for the administrative due practice than prior user-vendor relationships to the companies and the magnitude of the contract ($500 have provided a major impetus for managers evaluate outsourcing as a governance option. prominence of the two Two, million). this to in other organizations to seriously As Kirkpatrick (1991: p. 103) noted, No company 'The move startled computer managers across corporate America. Kodak's size and prominence had ever turned over Indeed, this decision sparked a greater level seems .>f its computers interest in this an outsider..." to mode of of IT governance: "For the majority of organizations, however, the idea became thinkable only when large and visible corporations such as Eastman Kodak Co.... began to publicize their plans to divest and openly discuss the cost benefits of outsourcing." 20 A leading outsourcing consultant attributed the current interest in outsourcing to the Kodak decision: that Kodak is doing "The Kodak contract was this sends a message that other single decision seems to have as really the it is OK watershed event. The to go much impact during fact to outsourcing." 21 No the time period that we considered in this paper. We critical use the terms "Kodak effect" to signify the importance of the Kodak event in driving the diffusion pattern of IT outsourcing. Specifically, examine whether the post-Kodak regime exhibits than the pre-Kodak regime. For this purpose, 1988 to July 1989-- as the first we diffusion regime, we a different pattern of influence consider the time period and the time period -- -- April August 1989 to Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing August 1990— as the 16 second diffusion regime. Our second research question is: 2: What source of influence best characterizes the diffusion of IT outsourcing before and after the Kodak-IBM contract? Research Question Methods Sample We generated a sample of outsourcing contracts by an electronic search of two CD-ROM databases - Newspaper Abstracts Ondisc and produced by University Microfilms Business Dateline Ondisc International (UMI). The first seven major daily newspapers, while the second provides the -- contains indexes of full text of articles of nearly 180 regional magazines, daily newspapers, and wire services. We performed comprehensive search of these information sources starting from January 1985 a (as constrained by the databases) and identified a total of 60 outsourcing contracts spanning the time period April 1988 to management outsourcing and systems 1990. 22 August We included both integration outsourcing, facilities which are two major modes of IT outsourcing practiced currently and are consistent with our Appendix A provides a detailed breakdown of the contracts. The average size of the contracts is $191.1 million (with a standard deviation of $589.9 earlier definition. million), while the average duration of the contracts deviation of 5.0 years). Figure 1 shows a time-plot of is 5.6 years (with a 'ihe standard outsourcing adoption. Analytical Framework Mahajan et al. (1988) developed the imitation hypothesis in the case of and used M-form a linear analogue approach to structure. This subject to econometric limitations such as multicollinearity standard errors for the crucial parameters we adopt inferential (p, q, approach is, test however, and non-availability and m) of equations (1) to (3). nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimation of the three models. The procedures are based on a special class of model specification tests developed by Davidson and MacKinnon (1981) for the case of a non-nested of Hence, I I I Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 17 Figure 1 Diffusion Pattern of IT Outsourcing A 60 t 50 - 40 •- 30 - 20 - 10 - d o P t i o n Number i >—r;~I^T-> -^ <*":-N -- < 1988 1988 1988 1989 1989 1989 1989 Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct 1 — 1 1990 Jan — 1 I 1— I —I— 1990 1990 Apr Jul Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 18 nonlinear alternative hypothesis. For testing the linear null hypothesis and a we apply nonlinear alternative hypothesis, and alternative hypotheses, we apply the as the conventional F-test P-test. inappropriate is the J-test; and for testing nonlinear null These specialized when tests are the alternative hypothesis nested with respect to the null hypothesis. Under such circumstances, simply constrain a portion of the hypothetical functional form a schematic representation of the analytical A The null hypothesis. follows a white-noise or that the difference necessary to we is non- cannot be zero. Figure 2 is framework. stringent null hypothesis is that the diffusion pattern random walk process (Mahajan between the numbers of adopters at t et al, 1988). and (t-1) is This specifies random, implying that the rate of diffusion will be driven by the error term only. The mathematical form of the null hypothesis posits that the first differences in the noncumulative adoption time-series are random: where mean x(t) is (e(t) is x(t) =x(t-l) the number + e(t) (4 ) of adopters at time uncorrected with e(t-k) for all t, and the residuals nonzero k). e(t) Equation have a zerc (4) specifies that the adoption time-series will proceed by a sequence of unconnected steps, starting each time from the value previous period. in the The internal-influence model. Solving equation for estimation, we ^ 1+ where mo represents -m^ ex P ^ mt) ( the number (5) of adopters in the initial period. we obtain the following functional form: x(t) =m + (m-mo) mQ , . exp (-qmt) (m-m 1 + mQ , The external-influence model. From equation m [l-exp(-pt)] Using a discrete 1 1 1 N(t) = obtain the functional form have: N(t) = formulation, (1) to ) 1V exp (-qm(t-l)) (2) earlier, . . . (6) we get: (7) Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 19 Figure 2 Analytical Framework Specification of c Start White-Noise Model as Null Hypothesis I Specification of Individual Influence Models as Alternative Hypotheses i Nonlinear Estimation of Individual Influence Models i Testing of Influence Models against White-Noise Model uisng J-Test I Are Two or More Influence Models Significant? i No Yes Finer Specification of Influence Models as Null and Alternative Hypotheses I Comparison of Influence Models using P-Test Stop "^ Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 20 This results in the following functional form for estimation: m [exp(-p(t-D) = x(t) exp(-pt)] - An NLS The mixed-influence model. influence this (8) estimation method model has been used by Srinivasan and Mason (1986) nonlinear estimation procedure performed better than (OLS) and maximum likelihood estimation for the its mixed- who showed that ordinary least squares (MLE) counterparts. Accordingly, we use the following functional form: l-exp(-(p+q) l-exp(-(p+q)t) m = x(t) 1 +^ exp (-(p+q)t) 1 -3 exp (t-1)) (-(p+q)(t-l)) (9) Test of alternative models against the null white-noise model. In the null hypothesis, we have As reasoned outsourcing. model is linear, Accordingly, x(t) = model specified a white-noise usual F-test earlier, the we employ inapplicable. Since our null the J-test as derived by Davidson we estimate the regression: (1- a) f(t) is for the diffusion of IT + a g<t)+ and MacKinnon u(t) ( where f(t)=x(t-l)+e(t) is the null white-noise model, g(t) an appropriate alternative model based on some constant, and u(t) is a distributed with zero the estimation influence random mean and error a which is 10) the predicted value under likelihood estimation, (10) enable us to test the alternative the conventional asymptotic one-tailed t-test for the Testing the influence models against one another. Here, both the null alternative hypotheses nonlinear. 1981). This is The P-test is = similar to the J-test, except that (1-oc) f(t) + a g(t) + F B + and the thus used (Davidson and we now estimate the following function: x(t) is normally and independently null hypothesis that a=0. MacKinnon, a constant variance. The econometric properties of and inference using equation model by applying maximum is (1981). u(t) ai) Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing where F is a and f(t) row g(t) are the 21 appropriate null and alternative models respectively and vector containing the derivatives of f with respect to B (the parameters of 0, evaluated at B. Evaluating the two research questions. using the analytical framework (Figure If first research question 2) for the entire diffusion estimation of the three influence models assess the relative The is performed, and the adequacy of an influence model two or more influence models turn out directly tested is regime. Nonlinear J-test is used to vis-a-vis the white-noise we perform significant, model. the P-test that allow us to directly compare the individual models. The second research question is appraised using the analytical framework in the two regimes (pre-Kodak and postKodak). The specification tests do not permit a direct verification of the spanning across two different regimes. Our approach is based on the standard econometric technique of testing structural change by breaking up a into separate regimes using 1984). The research question and/or of the P-test results within dominant type some conceptually conceived is models time series full cutoff points (Johnston, then evaluated by comparing the separate J-test each of the regimes and interpreting the results in terms of influence in the two regimes. Results Research Question Table 2 three models. (a) 1: Influence Sources in the Diffusion of IT Outsourcing summarizes the parameter estimates and the model The estimated values for m fit for the range from 149 to 206, which are in line with predicted numbers of outsourcing adoption by a leading consulting firm. 23 We note that amongst the three influence models, the internal-influence model has the best absolute fit. Table 2 (b) presents the results of comparisons of the alternative specifications with the white-noise the results the J-test, (p <.01). comparing all model using the J-test, while Table 2 (c) shows different alternative specifications using the P-tests. Based three specifications are significantly superior to the white-noise However, based on the P-test, the internal-influence model emerges on model as Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing providing the better (p <.01). It is models. model We to the data when tested against the external-influence model interesting to note that the internal-influence able to reject the not able to reject either the internal- or the external-influence is believe this specification that gives other hand, being is model model but not the mixed-influence model. Further, the mixed- external-influence influence fit 22 the it more due is to the power parsimony of internal-influence model to reject the external-influence fully specified, the mixed-influence model model; on the is difficult to be rejected. To ensure robustness we of the results, carried out the same analyses with data aggregated at a quarterly level. These findings are summarized in Appendix B where we can observe generally consistent data. Most interestingly, the null white-noise influence we see that the external-influence model under model under the models of influence: internal and influences. Given is the J-test, but can now model cannot even reject be rejected by the mixed- P-test. The mixed-influence model our primary concern monthly results as those obtained using is an additive combination of the two basic external. While this is included for completeness, with the distinction between the two basic models of that the mixed-influence model surprising that the internal-influence model per se is is more fully specified, unable to reject the it is not mixed- influence model outright in our results. Nevertheless, between internal and external influences, our results strongly support the dominance of internal influence in the diffusion of IT outsourcing. Research Question 2: Kodak's Outsourcing as a Critical Event Tables 3 and 4 summarize the results for the pre- and post-Kodak regimes respectively. The patterns in the parameter estimation and model with those obtained earlier under the models are statistically significant full when fit correspond regime. In the pre-Kodak regime, tested against the white-noise all three model using Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Table 2 Diffusion Results for IT Outsourcing in the Full Regime 2(a) Parameter 23 Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing the J-test (p <.05). However, using the 24 P-test, no one model emerges superior to another. In the post-Kodak regime, statistically statistically significant internal-influence under the model J-test (p <.05). three all However, using the rejects the external-influence model as being models are P-test, the (p <.05). The results pertaining to the mixed-influence model are similar to those discussed earlier under the full regime. Our critical event is management outsourcing a facilities we Kodak and IBM. Thus, to ensure robustness of the results, question using only the subsample composed of for the pre- and post-Kodak regimes. The can see that the patterns of with those based on the Our statistical facilities results are management agreements summarized inference under the J- is that while all regime that is is is and in Appendix C. We P-tests are consistent the models provide adequate data in the pre-Kodak regime, the external-influence model The implication evaluate this research full dataset. overall conclusion model wlwm compared contract between to the internal-influence that the Kodak event seems model to the clearly an inferior is in the to distinguish fit post-Kodak regime. between an antecedent not dominated by any single influence and a consequent regime that characterized by internal influence (vis-a-vis external influence). Thus, contend that there is a Kodak effect underlying this we unique observed pattern of IT outsourcing diffusion. Discussion Diffusion of IT Outsourcing: Imitation as an Explanation Our model is analyses and results of this study suggest that the internal-influence a better explanatory mechanism of the diffusion pattern of IT outsourcing than the external-influence model. Further decomposition of the time period into pre- and post-Kodak regimes indicates that the critical Kodak event significantly differentiates the pattern of influences in the diffusion of IT outsourcing influence dominates in the post-Kodak regime, but not before. - internal Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Table 3 Results Diffusion for IT Outsourcing 3(a) Parameter in the Pre-Kodak Regime Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Table 4 Diffusion Results for IT Outsourcing in Post-Kodak Regime 4(a) Parameter 26 Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing Mahajan and Peterson perspective adopting it is 27 (1985: p. 18) noted that the internal-influence "most appropriate when an innovation places social system disadvantage in business)" .... members Our .... socially visible, at a 'disadvantage' (e.g., a (emphasis added). Mahajan imitative behavior in the adoption of innovation perspective. is M-form structure within the diffusion-of- analyses are consistent with those of Mahajan et Our imitative behavior explanation is more pronounced in the post-Kodak isomorphism presented by DiMaggio and Powell isomorphic phenomenon arises from "the major factors that organizations organizations" (Aldrich, 1979: is directly p. 265). a basic organization-theoretic must take argument: into account are other The tendency for organizations to model through explicit interaction or an external change agent. The compelling legitimization. is best examined As DiMaggio and Powell in the context of organizational '1983: pp. 151-152) articulated: organizational technologies are poorly understood, [and] when (1983). Essentially, often a response to uncertainty. Such organizational models can diffuse logic of imitative behavior the environment creates symbolic uncertainty, model themselves more regime than the theory of imitative behavior, our results are in line with the notion of institutional or visibility since the pre-Kodak regime. From others al. results strongly support Mahajan and Peterson's discussion of the role of social this competitive et al. (1988) tested the (1988) but with significant methodological enhancements. in the and not when ... "When goals are ambiguous, organizations tend to after similar organizations in their field that they perceive to be legitimate or successful." Nelson and Winter (1982: p. 123) discussed imitation as an organizational routine and noted: "envious firms, then attempt to duplicate [the] imperfectly observed success." It is important to recognize that although the performance effects of specific administrative innovations are never perfectly known, imitation nevertheless could occur (see Burt, 1987 and Scott, 1987 for elaborations of this Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 28 argument), possibly as an insurance against being locked-out of access to new resources or when others sources of competitive advantage in the marketplace. the above set of arguments contends that organizations summary, In new mimic the underlying administrative processes are complex, especially under conditions of environmental uncertainty. The management of IT infrastructure has been made particularly complex given the uncertainties associated with the proliferation of competing standards, fluctuations introduction of new obsolescence (e.g., cost-performance trends, in systemic functionalities as well as risk of technological Keen, 1988, 1990; Strassmann, 1991). Beyond uncertainties within the technological environment, the role of IT in the business operations has changed from an administrative support strategic Such advantage a shift in the marketplace role (e.g., towards providing new sources of McFarlan, 1984; Scott Morton, 1991). could compel organizations to mimic seemingly successful administrative practices adopted by others within the social system. While imitative behavior adoption may appear to as an underlying determinant for innovation be non-rational, our position broad sense, isomorphic behavior termed is linked to what is that Accordingly, rationality is need not be DiMaggio and Powell as "collective rationality." Further, Fulk, Schmitz, developed the concept of rationality it in the context of subjective, retrospective, ^. and (1983) Steinfield (1990) social influence and attributable model. to influence through information provided by others. However, the rational argument advanced Farrell in the economics and Saloner, It is choice that literature on the adoption so. In a is best of standards (see for instance, 1985). then possible that a firm adopts FT outsourcing as a deliberate strategic is based on a sound and rationally-conceived economic analysis. A recent event study of stock market reactions to IT outsourcing established a positive impact on the market value of the user firms adopting and Venkatraman, 1992b). The implication is this governance mechanism (Loh that corporate performance is Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing enhanced through such 29 efficient choice of IT governance mechanisms which is consistent with organizational economics (Williamson, 1991). Our paper has added to the administrative innovation (such proposing a set of arguments growing as: literature M-form on the diffusion of structure and joint venture) by outsourcing as an for the consideration of IT administrative innovation. Further, from a methodological point of view, contributed by developing and using more powerful we have analytical estimation techniques than those traditionally used. In terms of IT research, this paper constitutes an attempt to empirically assess the diffusion pattern of a significant current administrative innovation within the IT domain and complements and the study conducted by Gurbaxani (1990) in the area of diffusion of an important technical innovation. Limitations and Extensions Contract Our size. results are based on outsourcing contracts that are sufficiently large to merit reporting in professional trade periodicals biased to the extent that smaller outsourcing decisions might be professional in community of IS may have Time-period. is we we do was Our due to their lower visibility, underlying imitative behavior in the not think that the exclusion of the smaller bibliometric search located before April 1988. the trade periodicals may have changed of IT outsourcing contracts. Further, had outsourced to the adversely affected our results and interpretations. the starting date of the databases) and definition believe that critical catalysts diffusion of IT outsourcing. Thus, contracts made known managers through information sources not covered our bibliometric search. However, smaller contracts are not and may be it was performed from January 1985 (which no coverage Our of IT outsourcing that met our results are limited to the extent that their criteria has been their IT operations historically and emphasis known in the reporting that several organizations from the 1960s. As Markus (1984) uncovered, such usage of external vendors was confined to time-sharing or Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 30 processing services involving service bureaus, limited use of integrated computer systems and application software involving systems houses, and some management involving facilities professional services firms (see also Phister, 1979 for additional perspectives on the history of computing and information systems). These forms of vendor participation facilities management had been are, however not widespread largely confined within hospitals institutions. Further, these contracts were not usually reported -- for instance, and educational in the media as they are normally operational agreements related to the routinal conduct of the business (e.g., custom programming and item processing). The contemporary form coverage, constitutes a more fundamental infrastructure strategy in the organization. use of outsourcing is in line from the extant media of outsourcing, as evident reconstitution of the overall IT To some extent, we believe this current with the evolutionary importance attached to the organizational information infrastructure. Thus, we are comfortable in the time frame selected for our analysis. More importantly, even if we include the few organizations that have outsourced before our starting point, the actual diffusion curve would be more S-shaped; make the internal-influence Had we uncovered pattern ex post, a the in other words, the direction of the bias would model more pronounced than we may have found. dominance of an external-influence more rigorous examination of this bias model in the diffusion would be an important extension of this paper. Specification diffusion to the models and estimation of models. that phenomenon is We specified and estimated a class of consistent with our conceptual level of analysis pertaining as well as the current state-of-the-art in estimation procedures. Within the substantive domain of information technology, our model specification represents an improvement over prior work (e.g., Gurbaxani, 1990). As the analytical progress using the diffusion perspective gains momentum within IT research, investigators should assess whether the theoretical arguments could be Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 31 framed within other forms of diffusion models such (e.g., Chow, 1967; Dodson and Muller, 1978) where as we dynamic diffusion models can relax the assumption of a constant adoption population. Expanding be to the scope of the model. A useful direction for future research expand the scope of the constructs considered. For assumed a models population with homogeneous mixing, where the likelihood of communication between any pair analytical point of view, it is of prior and potential adopters (Strang, 1991). support. For instance, However, it may be IT outsourcing within the is equal. From an possible to relax this assumption and incorporate the effects of social structure into the diffusion method instance, our would this modeling using an event-history should be based on corresponding theoretical possible to develop arguments that the diffusion of US economy is channeled by structural characteristics of the social relations that link the adopters. Then, it may be appropriate to use the degree of interlocking directorates between the user organizations and the technology vendors /systems integrators as well as membership in common professional bodies and associations. Such an approach could build from the Burt (1987) who work considered the effects of cohesion and structural equivalence in the well-cited diffusion of medical innovation discussed in Complementing a cross-sectional Coleman model of IT outsourcing. et al. (1966). Our study constitutes a longitudinal approach in explaining the incidence of IT outsourcing. This complements a cross-sectional approach used by Loh and Venkatraman (1992a) where the authors empirically examined the level level of IT outsourcing using firm- determinants derived from two contexts: business cost structure, business performance, financial leverage, IT cost structure, and FT performance. Our study suggests that the institutional context at the social system level delineating a of more comprehensive model may add value in that can be empirically verified. Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 32 Conclusion It is the clear that IT outsourcing US economy today. is an innovative governance mechanism within Our paper sought to the pattern of diffusion of this governance support for the internal-influence model; the much-publicized with an enthusiastic sectional understand the sources of influence mode. this We provide strong empirical model was more pronounced Kodak-IBM outsourcing contract than before. call for further We conclude work on IT outsourcing — both along and longitudinal perspectives. after cross- in Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 33 References Aldrich, H., Organizations and Environments , Englewood Prentice-Hall, E., "The Salesperson as Outside Agent or Employee: Analysis," Marketing Science, 4 (1985), 234-253. Anderson, Bass, F.M, "A New Product (1969), 215-227. Growth Model for Consumer A Cliffs, NJ, 1979. Transaction Cost Durables.," Management Science, 15 Blair, R., K.H. Roberts, and P. 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X CO x - JS c c — re re re c c c c o r* lc <vi ^ c o r~, if, f, — £2 — — l/". iri £ r*l .— Or t-. f re re c c tl c x r" ; ^ -Z f. " *£ r. tN ; ir, c-^ i/-. re re ~^ c c 2 £ < Cm 22_22222222_22_ ______________ ______ 2_222 — _ _ _ _ LT. c U c U </. E if. cj E O IT. ~. E O U x.=c 5 Z 5 o 5- = W>* K B 3 c E a P-o. E e c "re E t re o O - o UU 'E — c c v. Ci c C ss s to >> sj C. qQ 6C c o re a re 3 .£ °-5 c C 3 3 5 CI a: U _= c c 3 c, c 3 " c u CCO = — 3 3 > -> > a. ovJ o _ u 2C: < o Hi t: u a..o 5 E2 *2 Ey E E £ U 3 c — 6£ E E Ci E d-u*. _ r ci c eui 'X rcS2o---:E t/5 Is 3 5 E o c ? Cl U u-, •tf P c o tr. c >-> a. E c c N 'E 6C 5 < I/) > f- 5 i Q U c _^ Si <o n >, -' *3 g c- M 2 S * I* Ct •{- C C ' .= tu 3 3 in Cl. IB ZC %9 .E — u Si -. — QC C U c u. 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U. - WZ E fc Z 60 c C c « s- o C y = o n 3 <£ E S I 5 - (A c % I U a: c & IT U E c 01 o "C -if. l£ DH 2- C - _ - o c- _ < <.<£ -J c A 'E 6C ^ — — a — < >-,— IT. -</, re sc 5 c ^ *^ Q ^ ^ ^ = \r.\r.u. y. - - Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 39 Appendix B Diffusion Tests in the Full Regime using Quarterly Data We further aggregated at examine our Research Question 1 using the diffusion data the quarterly level. Table Bl presents the inferential results of testing an influence model against (a) the white-noise another influence model using the P-test. The model using the J-test; and (b) J-test indicates that the internal- and mixed-influence models reject the white-noise model (p <.05 and p<.01 respectively), while the external-influence the data than the white-noise model. model is unable to provide a better However, based on the model is influence model (p<.05). This set of results establishes the robustness of those by the internal-influence model (p<.10) and the mixed- obtained using monthly data as discussed earlier in the text. Table Bl: Inference Results for the Full Regime using Quarterly Data Alternative Hypothesis to P-test, the external- influence rejected fit Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 40 Appendix C Diffusion of Facilities Management Outsourcing in the Pre- and Post-Kodak Regimes We assess the robustness of our results pertaining to Research Question 2 analyzing the diffusion pattern using only contracts. This a facilities is to account for the fact that management agreement, and facilities our by management outsourcing critical event (i.e., Kodak contract) the influences in the social system is may only operate via this specific type of outsourcing. Our results (see Tables CI and C2) supporting the dominance of the internal-influence model over the externalinfluence model replicate those based on the full sample discussed Table CI: Inference Results for Facilities in the Alternative Hypothesis Management Pre-Kodak Regime in the text. Diffusion Diffusion of Information Technology Outsourcing 41 NOTES 1 2 Network World, February 17, 1992: pp. 1, 31-36 See Computerworld, December 25, 1989/January 1, 1990: p. 8 and Information Week, October 7, 1991: p. 44. 3 The breakdown follows: of industry outsourcing revenue for the year 1990 35% commercial; 38% federal; 20% international; 7% amongst the various sectors government is as state/local (Computerworld, May 20, 1991: p. 141). ^Network World, February 17, 1992: pp. 1, 31-36. 5 Kirkpatrick (1991: 6 p. 104) reported that the 1990 revenue and market share for the five biggest outsourcing vendors are as follows: (1) EDS ($6110m, 20.7%); (2) IBM ($3900m, 13.2%); (3) Anderson Consulting ($1880m, 6.4%); (4) DEC ($1800m, 6.1%); (5) CSC ($1500m, 5.1%). The gross margin in the business has been estimated to be as high as 25-30% (Kirkpatrick , 1991: p. 104). 7 Computerworld, June 4, 1990: p. 80 ° Computerworld, January 13, 1992: ' Computerworld, June 11, 1990: p. 1 p. 8 10 Wa// Street Journal, July 26,.1989: p. 3 11 Computerworld, December 25, 1989/January 1, 1990: pp. 14-15 not include the case where the IT infrastructure is transferred to a whollysubsidiary as the mode of governance is still "hierarchical" as opposed to "market." 12 In our definition, owned we do ^Computerworld, April 16, 1990: p. 77 ^Computerworld, September 30, 1991: p. 1 ^Computerworld September 16, 1991: p. 113 1 , 16 Computerworld, November 11, 1991; p. 70 17 Computerworld, January 14, 1991: p. 10 ^Wall Street Journal, July 26, 1989: p. 3. At the same time, Kodak also outsourced as microcomputer systems operations to Businessland. 19 See Harvard Business School cases, "Eastman Kodak Co.: Managing Information Systems Through Strategic Alliances," 1-192-030 and "Digital Equipment Corporation: The Kodak Outsourcing Agreement," N9-191-039 for background details. 10 Computerworld, January 8, 1990: p. 67 21 Interview with Howard Anderson, the managing director of The Yankee Croup reported in Computerworld, January 8, 1990: p. 76. ^First, we conducted an exploratory search to discern the patterns of reporting for outsourcing contracts in the databases. Next, we generated our sample using a generalized search procedure which avoided any bias to any vendor or user. We used the following search commands to draw out all the contracts in the databases: term(contract) AND (computer OR system OR information) AND xxx, where we respectively used outsourcing, facilities management, systems integration, time-sharing, network management, systems management, information management, and data processing management for xxx. Throughout this procedure, we are confident that the sample is adequately comprehensive for the results to be generalizable. ^Network World, July 2, 1990: pp. 1, 47 2799 5 Date Due 05 199a *tf MAY 2 31P5 • ste*. »g 2o MAR. 1 tiff 1M6 MAY 11 ^fc nz 1 1JJ95 4 }9% 1 - Lib-26-67 MIT 3 TOflO LIBRARIES 00711414 2