Luiz Pinto, Matthias Sigrist, Daniel Packard Decrease SIM portfolio by 43 basis points to come in line with S&P 500 Reallocate funds within the Telecommunication SIM Sector S&P 500 Sector S&P 500 9.11% 11.94% 12.35% 14.66% 12.65% 10.09% 19.04% 3.39% 3.09% 3.68% Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrial Information Technology Materials Telecommunications Utilities SIM Portfolio Difference 7.51% -1.60% 12.23% 0.29% 12.80% 0.45% 6.59% -8.07% 13.13% 0.48% 11.97% 1.88% 21.97% 2.92% 4.52% 1.13% 3.51% 0.43% 3.19% -0.49% 3% 3% 4% Consumer Discretionary 9% 19% Consumer Staples 12% Energy 12% Financials Health Care Industrial 10% Information Technology 15% 13% Materials Telecommunications Utilities SIM Portfolio 5% 4% 3% Consumer Discretionary 8% Consumer Staples 12% Energy 23% 13% 12% 7% 13% Financials Health Care Industrial Information Technology Materials Sell AT&T (219 basis points) Buy Verizon (117 basis points) Increase stake in NII Holdings (59 basis points to 200 points) Total Sector Holdings – 317 basis points (43 basis point decrease) Largest US-based telecom company. ◦ 2008 Revenues: $124 Billion Two major business lines: Wireless: Cell Phones, data and voice services. ◦ Acquisitions of BellSouth and Cingular ◦ Limited to the Domestic Market Wireline: Landline communication, Internet, TV, ◦ Cable and satellite internet provider ◦ IT products and IT communications to businesses ◦ TV Competitors: Time Warner, Verizon, Comcast, Directv Wireless Currently experiencing high growth. ◦ Revenues: Increased 12% from 2007 to 2008 ◦ Customers: Increased 9% 49% of total sales/ 78% Total Profit Wireline Revenues are slightly decreasing. ◦ 1.7% from 2007 to 2008 ◦ Customers shifted from Wireline to Wireless ◦ FiOS product sales increasing Wireless I-phone main revenue growth driver 3G Network ◦ Exclusive contract with Apple expected to run out in 2010 ◦ Verizon’s Droid brings heavy competition ◦ Bad network reputation ◦ Under heavy criticism ◦ Sold Made fun of by Verizon Wireline Landline ◦ According to AT&T: customers simply switch to wireless TV and Internet ◦ Increased competition ◦ Not main focus of management Current Stock Price: $27.10 Dividend Yield: 6.10% Market Cap: $ 160 Billion Beta: 0.65 Price in line w/Industry Undervalued vs. S&P 500 Relative to Industry P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 Low 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.1 Median 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.2 Current 1.0 0.8 1.6 1.1 Relative to S&P 500 P/Trailing E P/B P/S P/CF High 1.1 1.7 2.2 0.9 Low 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.4 Median 0.8 0.8 1.4 0.6 Current 0.5 0.7 1.5 0.4 Stock Price (Nov. 25): $27.10 Target Price Calculation: ◦ Discount Rate: 10% ◦ Terminal FCF Growth: 3% ◦ Revenue Growth: Around 2.8 - 3% Discounted Cash Flow: $32.77 Price forward/E: $25.43 Dividend Discount: $23.32 Final Target Price: $30 (60% DCF, 40% P/E) ◦ Assuming a conservative outlook. ◦ Potential upside: 10.7% Analyst: Matthias Sigrist 10/20/2009 Year Revenue Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Growth = 2009E 123,008 2010E 126,452 20,203 21,497 % Growth EBT EBT Margin Interest Interest % of Sales Taxes Tax Rate Net Income 2.8% 16.4% % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA Shares Outstanding Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.0% 2.8% 22,049 16.5% 2013E 137,373 2.8% 22,667 16.5% 2014E 141,220 2.8% 23,301 16.5% 2015E 145,174 2.8% 23,954 16.5% 2016E 149,529 3.0% 23,925 16.0% 2017E 154,015 3.0% 24,642 16.0% 2018E 158,636 3.0% 25,382 16.0% - - - - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6,970 34.5% 13,233 7,416 34.5% 14,080 6.4% 19,661 16.0% 3,961 3.2% $ 20,296 16.5% 16,560 % Growth NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 2.8% $ 22,099 2012E 133,632 - % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort 17.0% 2011E 129,992 Normal 10.0% 3.0% 20,232 11.6 14.6 5.4 6.4 5,900 5,923 34.5% 14,475 2.8% $ 20,799 16.0% 16.0% 162 166 0.1% 21,497 17.0% 12,978 -21.6% 93,400 99,924 193,324 10.79% 7,624 0.1% 22,099 17.0% 13,341 2.8% 48% 52% 100% 10.9 13.7 5.1 6.1 7,607 34.5% 14,442 -0.2% 21,381 16.0% 2,539 1.9% 23,386 17.5% 14,977 12.3% 7,820 34.5% 14,847 2.8% 21,980 16.0% 2,473 1.8% 24,040 17.5% 15,259 1.9% 8,039 34.5% 15,262 2.8% 22,595 16.0% 2,542 1.8% 24,713 17.5% 15,686 2.8% 8,264 34.5% 15,690 2.8% 23,228 16.0% 2,613 1.8% 25,405 17.5% 16,125 2.8% Normal Current Price $ 26.02 Implied equity value/share $ 32.77 Upside/(Downside) to DCF 25.9% 10.6 13.4 5.0 5.9 8,254 34.5% 15,671 -0.1% 23,925 16.0% 2,692 1.8% 26,168 17.5% 16,119 0.0% 8,502 34.5% 16,141 3.0% 24,642 16.0% 2,772 1.8% 26,953 17.5% 16,603 3.0% 8,757 34.5% 16,625 3.0% 25,382 16.0% 2,855 1.8% 27,761 17.5% 17,101 3.0% Terminal Value Free Cash Yield 2019E 163,395 3.0% 26,143 16.0% 0.0% 9,019 34.5% 17,124 3.0% 26,143 16.0% 2,941 1.8% 28,594 17.5% 17,614 3.0% 259,177 6.80% Terminal P/E 15.1 Terminal EV/EBITDA 6.1 $ 32.77 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 3.0% $ $ 37.69 $ 34.95 $ 32.58 $ $ 39.52 $ 36.46 $ 33.84 $ $ 41.69 $ 38.22 $ 35.28 $ 3.5% $ 44.30 $ 40.30 $ 36.98 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 4.0% 4.5% $ 36.11 $ 33.64 $ 31.48 10.0% 29.57 30.51 31.56 32.77 $ $ $ $ $ 34.16 $ $ 47.48 $ 42.80 $ 38.97 $ 35.78 $ $ 51.46 $ 45.86 $ 41.37 $ 37.70 $ 10.5% 27.88 28.68 29.57 30.58 $ $ $ $ 31.74 $ 33.08 $ 34.64 $ 11.0% 26.37 27.05 27.82 28.67 $ $ $ $ 11.5% 25.01 25.60 26.26 26.99 29.65 $ 30.76 $ 32.04 $ 27.81 28.75 29.81 Second largest US-based telecom company. ◦ 2008 Revenues: $98 Billion Two major business lines: Wireless: Cell Phones, data and voice services. ◦ Joint Venture with British operator, Vodafone ◦ Limited to the Domestic Market Wireline/Business: Recently merged. ◦ Cable Internet provider ◦ IT products and IT communications to businesses ◦ Recently expanded to the International Market Wireless Currently experiencing high growth. ◦ Revenues: Increased 12% from 2007 to 2008 ◦ Customers: Increased 9% 49% of total sales/ 78% Total Profit Wireline Revenues are slightly decreasing. ◦ 1.7% from 2007 to 2008 ◦ Customers shifted from Wireline to Wireless ◦ FiOS product sales increasing Wireless 4G Technology Motorola Droid ◦ Recently launched. Competitor to AT&T’s iPhone ◦ Sold 100,000 units in the first weekend ◦ Expected to have a positive impact on earnings Wireline Fios Technology ◦ Fiber optic communications network, with TV, cable, and phone ◦ Launched in 2007, is now being expanded all across the country International Operations ◦ Recently started with the acquisition of MCI ◦ High capacity for growth ◦ Focused on Business Customers Current Stock Price: $31.78 Dividend Yield: 6.20% Market Cap: $ 90.20 Billion Relative to Industry Beta: 0.65 Price in line w/Industry Undervalued vs. S&P 500 High Low Median Current P/Trailing E 1.2 .71 .90 1.1 P/Forward E 1.2 .71 .91 .99 P/B 2.4 .7 1.3 1.1 P/S 1.2 .6 .9 .8 P/CF 1.1 .7 .9 .9 Stock Price on 10/1: $28.80 Current Stock Price: $31.78 Target Price Calculation: ◦ Discount Rate: 10% ◦ Terminal FCF Growth: 4% ◦ Revenue Growth: Around 3.5% Discounted Cash Flow: $35.78 Multiples: From $36 to $42 Final Target Price: $36 ◦ Assuming a conservative outlook. ◦ Potential upside: 13% Analyst: Luiz Pinto 10/20/2010 Year Revenue Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Growth = 2009E 103,970 % Growth EBT EBT Margin Interest Interest % of Sales Taxes Tax Rate Net Income % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow 107,260 3.2% 10,433 10.0% 10,975 10.2% 2011E 110,586 3.1% 11,525 10.4% 3.2% 12,097 10.6% 118,119 3.5% 12,757 10.8% 2014E 122,253 3.5% 13,448 11.0% 2015E 126,532 2016E 130,961 3.5% 13,919 3.5% 14,406 11.0% 11.0% 2017E 135,544 3.5% 14,910 11.0% 2018E 140,966 4.0% 15,506 11.0% 2019E 146,605 4.0% 16,126 11.0% - - - - - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3,547 34.0% 6,886 3,732 34.0% 7,244 5.2% 15,596 15.0% 2,469 2.4% 17,400 16.7% 7,550 16,089 3,918 34.0% 7,606 5.0% 16,588 15.0% 15.0% 79 80 0.1% 0.1% 17,500 16.0% 5,911 -21.7% 17,694 16.0% 6,580 11.3% NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield Normal 45,373 56,432 101,805 9.21% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA Normal Aggressive Conservative 11.9 11.9 11.9 14.8 15.9 13.8 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.1 4.4 3.8 Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF 114,125 2013E 0.0% % Growth Shares Outstanding 2012E - % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort 2010E Normal Aggressive Conservative 10.0% 9.0% 11.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 45% 55% 100% Aggressive 47,489 61,828 109,317 2845 Normal Aggressive Conservative $ 28.80 $ 28.80 $ 28.80 $ 35.78 $ 38.42 $ 33.37 24.2% 33.4% 15.9% 4,113 34.0% 7,984 5.0% 17,119 15.0% 1,027 0.9% 18,260 16.0% 7,870 19.6% 4,337 34.0% 8,420 5.5% 17,245 4,572 34.0% 8,876 5.4% 17,849 4,732 4,898 34.0% 9,186 34.0% 9,508 3.5% 17,714 3.5% 18,334 5,069 34.0% 9,841 3.5% 18,976 5,272 34.0% 10,234 4.0% 19,735 5,483 34.0% 10,643 4.0% 20,525 14.6% 14.6% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% 945 978 633 655 678 705 733 0.8% 18,899 16.0% 7,711 -2.0% Conservative 43% 43,398 57% 51,549 100% 94,947 0.8% 19,560 16.0% 8,142 5.6% 43% 57% 100% 0.5% 20,245 0.5% 20,954 16.0% 7,288 16.0% 7,543 -10.5% 3.5% Terminal Value Free Cash Yield 0.5% 21,687 16.0% 7,807 3.5% 0.5% 22,555 16.0% 8,120 4.0% 0.5% 23,457 16.0% 8,444 4.0% Normal Aggressive Conservative 146370 221666 108722 5.77% 3.81% 7.77% Terminal P/E 13.8 20.8 10.2 Terminal EV/EBITDA 4.1 6.2 3.1 Free Cash Flow Growth VZ Terminal Discount Rate $ 35.78 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 3.0% $ 38.22 $ 35.29 $ 32.79 $ 30.61 $ 28.71 $ 27.03 $ 25.54 3.5% $ 40.29 $ 36.97 $ 34.17 $ 31.77 $ 29.68 $ 27.85 $ 26.24 4.0% $ 42.77 $ 38.96 $ 35.78 $ 33.09 $ 30.78 $ 28.78 $ 27.03 4.5% $ 45.81 $ 41.35 $ 37.69 $ 34.64 $ 32.06 $ 29.84 $ 27.92 5.0% $ 49.60 $ 44.26 $ 39.98 $ 36.47 $ 33.55 $ 31.07 $ 28.94 5.5% $ 54.48 $ 47.90 $ 42.78 $ 38.67 $ 35.31 $ 32.50 $ 30.12 6.0% $ 60.99 $ 52.59 $ 46.27 $ 41.36 $ 37.42 $ 34.19 $ 31.49 6.5% $ 70.10 $ 58.83 $ 50.77 $ 44.71 $ 39.99 $ 36.21 $ 33.11 Comaprison Current Ratio Debt to Equity Ratio Average Collection Period Times Interest Coverage EPS Dividend/Share Working Capital CF operation Net Cash Flow CF Operation/Share Net CF/Share Cash/Share AT&T 0.5 1.8 47 6.9 $ 2.17 $ 1.61 $ (19,734) $ 33,656 $ (178) $ 5.68 $ (0.03) $ 0.30 Verizon 1.0 1.6 44 6.1 $ 2.23 $ 1.78 $ 169 $ 26,620 $ 8,629 $ 9.34 $ 3.03 $ 3.43 Latin American Wireless Company ◦ 2008 Revenues: $4.2 Billion Offers four types of services: Nextel Direct Connect Wireless Data Solutions and Mobile Internet Access Handsets Revenue By Region International Roaming Services 0% 13% 6% Nextel Mexico 50% Nextel Brazil Nextel Argentina 31% Nextel Peru Corporate and other Core Earnings By Region 3% -12% Nextel Mexico 11% 50% Nextel Brazil Nextel Argentina 24% Nextel Peru Corporate and other Performance Drivers ARPU CPGA Churn Rate (%) FX Rate Fluctuation Operating Revenues Operating Income ARPU 2009 2008 46 59 268 318 1.93 1.87 Actual Normalized -3.0% 17.0% -9.0% 30.0% -22.0% -5.0% Ratios Profitability ROA ROIC Liquidity Current Ratio Leverage Debt To Assets Debt To Equity Allowance to AR 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 7.25% 8.63% 6.96% 8.08% 8.93% 10.79% 6.67% 8.20% 3.78% 5.02% 2.69 3.17 2.12 2.62 1.69 0.65 1.85 0.60 1.51 0.59 1.45 0.69 2.23 0.72 2.53 5.78% 4.41% 5.07% 5.03% 4.82% RATIO Earning Power Asset Turnover Pretax ROE Pretax ROA Liquidity Quick Ratio Current Ratio Avg Days Collect Inventory Turnover Times Interest Earned Margins Gross Margin Operating Margin Earnings After Taxes NIHD 2008 0.81 26.5% 10.0% AMX 2008 0.79 52.6% 18.3% TI 2008 0.34 10.9% 3.3% MICC AVERAGE 2008 2008 0.71 0.6625 39.9% 32.5% 12.3% 11.0% 2.19 2.69 38 12.1 4.2 0.51 0.77 55 4.6 9.9 0.78 0.8 103 36.6 1.5 0.55 0.78 30 12.7 5 1.0075 1.26 56.5 16.5 5.15 60.5% 18.0% 8.6% 57.8% 27.6% 17.2% 54.0% 14.8% 7.4% 78.3% 25.4% 9.2% 62.7% 21.5% 10.6% 500 400 300 NIHD 200 TI 100 AMX MICC 0 -100 -200 Wireless Spectrum Acquisition 3G Network Economic Upturn Reduced cost per customer Current Stock Price: $30.95 Dividend Yield: N/A Market Cap: $ 4.8 Billion Valuation Measure P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF Sector -33% -11% -19% -33% -36% Beta: 2.23 Industry Undervalue Undervalued vs. S&P 500 S&P Wireless Integrated NIHD 500 -33% 209% -34% -28% -16% NM -18% -58% 14% -33% -22% -71% -18% -59% -33% -64% -20% -60% -29% -55% Stock Price (Nov. 23): $30.95 Target Price Calculation: ◦ Discount Rate: 10.5% ◦ Terminal FCF Growth: 5% ◦ Revenue Growth: Around 4.5 to 5% Discounted Cash Flow: Price forward/E: $41.67 $41.67 Final Target Price: $41.67 (100% DCF) ◦ Assuming a conservative outlook. ◦ Potential upside: 34.6% Absolute Valuation P/Forward E P/S P/B P/EBITDA P/CF High 34.3 109.6 16.9 213.98 36.5 Low 6.7 0.5 1.2 1.48 2.8 Median 19.2 3.8 8 13.42 15.1 Current 13.8 1.6 2.3 4.84 6.8 Target Multiple 18.2 2.2 3.8 8.1 11.2 Target Value $2.29 $25.76 $14.10 $6.70 $4.77 Target Price 41.67 56.67 53.58 54.27 53.42 NII Holdings Inc. Analyst: Daniel Packard 11/23/2009 Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Growth = Year 2009E Revenue 4,302,000 % Growth 542,394 EBT Margin 12.6% Interest Interest % of Sales Taxes 5,573,000 11.0% 607,625 703,198 12.1% 12.6% % of Sales 12.1% 6.5% 972,448 12.1% 8,518,968 6.0% 1,030,795 12.1% 8,944,917 5.0% 1,082,335 12.1% 9,392,163 5.0% 1,136,452 12.1% - - - - - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 176,211 203,927 29.0% 29.0% 431,414 499,271 15.7% 456,911 512,716 213,157 29.0% 521,866 4.5% 516,338 230,209 29.0% 563,616 8.0% 557,646 247,475 29.0% 605,887 7.5% 599,469 264,798 29.0% 648,299 7.0% 641,432 282,010 29.0% 690,438 6.5% 642,941 298,931 29.0% 731,865 6.0% 681,517 313,877 29.0% 768,458 5.0% 715,593 329,571 29.0% 806,881 5.0% 751,373 8.9% 9.1% 9.2% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% (52,263) (89,875) (57,854) (30,373) (19,682) (21,158) (22,639) (24,110) (25,557) (26,835) (28,176) -1.8% -1.0% 1,054,410 1,003,140 20.0% 21.0% 18.0% (147,397) (255,960) (49,007) 73.7% -80.9% 2009E 13.5 18.2 7.8 9.7 -0.5% 911,186 15.0% 96,646 -297.2% Debt 2011E Cash 10.3 Cash/share 13.9 5.9 7.4 2010E 12.0 16.1 6.8 8.5 166,927.0 166,927.0 166,927.0 Normal Aggressive Conservative $ 30.95 $ 30.95 $ 30.95 $ 913,097 8,036,763 0.0% Normal Aggressive Conservative 1,478,918 1,537,294 1,422,889 5,477,424 7,038,589 4,409,057 6,956,342 8,575,883 5,831,945 -2.85% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 12.1% 7.0% - % Growth NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 853,362 7,546,256 2019E 0.0% -1.2% Free Cash Flow 12.1% 7.5% 2018E - 860,400 Capex % of sales 793,825 7,052,576 2017E 0.0% 382,878 Subtract Cap Ex 12.1% 8.0% 2016E - 12.8% Plus/(minus) Changes WC 735,023 6,560,536 2015E 0.0% 382,388 % of Sales 9.0% 2014E - % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort 6,074,570 2013E 0.0% 29.5% Net Income Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF 5,021,000 2012E - 160,006 Tax Rate Current Price 2011E 16.7% EBT Shares Outstanding 2010E Normal Aggressive Conservative 10.5% 10.0% 11.0% 5.0% 5.5% 4.5% 41.67 34.6% $ 51.38 66.0% $ 34.94 12.9% -0.3% 984,080 15.0% 117,499 21.6% Normal 21% 79% 100% 3,301,233 1,243,251 7.45 -0.3% 916,835 13.0% 267,363 127.5% -0.3% 830,088 11.0% 437,004 63.4% Terminal Value Free Cash Yield -0.3% 723,309 9.0% 585,960 34.1% Normal 14,866,171 -0.3% 681,517 8.0% 706,308 20.5% Aggressive 18,256,288 -0.3% 715,593 8.0% 741,623 5.0% Conservative 12,519,168 5.24% 4.27% 6.22% Terminal P/E 18.4 22.6 15.5 Terminal EV/EBITDA 9.0 10.8 7.7 -0.3% 751,373 8.0% 778,704 5.0% $ 41.67 4.0% $ 4.5% $ 5.0% $ 5.5% $ 6.0% $ 9.0% 50.94 $ 55.71 $ 9.5% 45.17 $ 48.92 $ 10.0% 40.38 $ 43.38 $ 10.5% 36.36 $ 38.80 $ 61.68 69.35 79.58 53.50 59.22 66.58 46.98 51.38 56.87 $ 41.67 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 45.13 49.35 $ $ 11.0% 32.93 $ 34.94 $ 11.5% 29.98 $ 31.65 $ 12.0% 27.42 28.82 37.28 40.04 43.35 33.57 35.82 38.47 30.42 32.27 34.43 $ $ $ $ $ $ Below is a brief summary of NII Holdings BUY rating: ◦ NII’s discounted cash flows and valuation analysis - 34% undervalued. ◦ NII’s return on assets and sustained capital expenditures despite economic slowdown. ◦ Acquire additional telecom spectrum in selective emerging markets. ◦ NII has successfully differentiated themselves. ◦ NII’s cyclical nature indicates growth as domestic and international economic conditions improve. Risks related to this recommendation include: ◦ Reduced demand for services resulting from economic downturn causing reduced discretionary spending. ◦ Increased levels of competition among the other wireless providers. ◦ Increased levels of voluntary and involuntary customer turnover. ◦ Available spectrum limitations and government regulation. Below is a summary of Verizon Communications BUY rating: ◦ According to the DCF and the multiples valuation, there is a conservative upside of 13%. Might be higher. ◦ High growth in the wireless sector, with the highest level of network coverage in the country. ◦ Now has a comparable product to the iPhone, the Droid, expected to boost sales. ◦ Has a chance of leading in new 4G technology, increasing its value. ◦ Has recently expanded to international markets, reducing its exposure to the American market. Risks related to this recommendation include: ◦ Shrinking Wireline segment might affect the long-term profitability of the company. ◦ Droid sales can hurt stock price, if below expectations. ◦ Capital intensive nature. Demands a huge continuous investment. Sell AT&T (219 basis points) Buy Verizon (117 basis points) Increase stake in NII Holdings (59 basis points to 200 points) Total Sector Holdings – 317 basis points (42 basis point decrease)