Consumer Staples Company Presentation Des Dudaney Erica Elsasser Neil Hertenstein Mun Yi Se Tho May 18th, 2010 Table of Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P & G Analysis Recommendation Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Recommendation Sell 67 BP of Pepsi Sell 40 BP of P&G Hold Philip Morris & Wal-Mart Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Sector Summary SIM Portfolio Sector S&P 500 Weight SIM Weight +/- Consumer Discretionary 10.55% 10.44% -0.11% Consumer Staples 10.91% 11.71% 0.80% Energy 11.18% 9.76% -1.43% Financials 16.47% 11.41% -5.07% Health Care 11.55% 14.63% 3.07% Industrials 10.76% 13.10% 2.34% Information Technology 18.91% 20.18% 1.27% Materials 3.45% 1.64% -1.82% Telecommunication 2.73% 3.70% 0.98% Utilities 3.48% 2.10% -1.38% * Weights as of 4/30/2010 Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations CS Sector Recap Decrease weight of Consumer Staples by 107 basis points Provides a 27 bp underweighting Defensive sector and lower returns in economic growth Allows more cyclical sectors to experience higher gains Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Sector Holdings Current Holdings Recommended Holdings SIM – 11.71% SIM – 10.64% PepsiCo………………2.90% Wal-Mart Stores Inc…2.78% Philip Morris Int’l……..2.96% Procter & Gamble……3.07% PepsiCo……………….2.23% Wal-Mart Stores Inc….2.78% Philip Morris Int’l……...2.96% Procter & Gamble…….2.67% * Weights as of 4/30/2010 Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Target Prices Company Current Price Target Price Dividend Upside Potential Philip Morris $46.25 $57 4.9% 28.1% Procter & Gamble $63.38 $72 3.1% 16.7% Wal-Mart $52.73 $62 2.3% 17.6% PepsiCo $66.75 $74 2.7% 13.6% Prices as of 5/13/2010 5/28/2016 Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations 8 Target Prices of Sector Stocks in S&P Company AVP ADM DF TSN PM WMT WAG CVS KO TAP SVU SJM CCE COST KR CAG PG EL PEP KFT Price $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 28.10 27.12 9.74 17.61 46.21 52.69 35.65 35.76 53.35 42.78 13.65 58.16 26.35 58.25 22.10 24.42 63.39 61.52 66.70 30.59 Consensus $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 37.69 35.75 12.11 21.73 56.32 62.61 41.64 41.71 61.80 49.25 15.62 66.55 29.90 65.18 24.68 27.25 70.21 68.06 73.43 33.65 Sector Summary Upside 34.13% 31.82% 24.33% 23.40% 21.88% 18.83% 16.80% 16.64% 15.84% 15.12% 14.43% 14.43% 13.47% 11.90% 11.67% 11.59% 10.76% 10.63% 10.09% 10.00% Company Comparison LO MO SWY CL SYY MJN GIS MKC KMB K RAI DPS CLX HNZ CPB HRL BFB WFMI STZ HSY SLE $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ PepsiCo Analysis 80.22 21.71 23.62 83.66 30.26 51.01 73.75 39.55 62.15 55.51 54.08 38.00 64.85 46.65 35.58 41.37 57.34 40.66 17.79 47.96 14.86 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 88.00 23.44 25.36 89.75 32.43 54.63 78.69 42.18 66.08 58.65 57.06 40.00 68.17 49.03 36.50 42.27 58.56 41.51 18.10 47.32 13.94 P&G Analysis 9.70% 7.97% 7.37% 7.28% 7.17% 7.10% 6.70% 6.65% 6.32% 5.66% 5.51% 5.26% 5.12% 5.10% 2.59% 2.18% 2.13% 2.09% 1.74% -1.33% -6.19% Recommendations Company Information Philip Morris - Hold Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is the leading international tobacco company. Spin-off from Altria(MO) in 2008. PM owns seven of the world’s top 15 brands Brand portfolio includes Marlboro, the number one cigarette brand worldwide. Products sold in approximately 160 countries. As of 2008, the company held an estimated 15.6% share of the total international cigarette market outside of the U.S. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Wal-Mart Stores - Hold Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates various formats of retail stores and restaurants, including combination discount and grocery stores, supercenters, Sam’s Clubs, hypermarkets, cash-ncarry stores, department stores, and general merchandise stores Attractive Valuation Big move to online – sales, ad campaign etc. Improved merchandising capabilities, capital efficiency, inventory management Very non-cyclical Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations PepsiCo PepsiCo, Inc., founded in 1898, manufactures, markets, and sells numerous foods, snacks, and carbonated and noncarbonated beverages worldwide. Market capitalization of $106.55 billion. PepsiCo owns hundreds of brands around the world, but the most recognizable include: Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Procter & Gamble The Procter & Gamble Company (P&G), founded in 1837, engages in the manufacture and sale of consumer goods worldwide. The company operates in 3 global business units: Beauty Health and Well-Being Household Care Products are sold in over 180 countries worldwide Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations PepsiCo Analysis 03/01/2004 •EPS is expected to increase, but remain significantly lower than before. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis 09/01/2012 06/01/2012 03/01/2012 12/01/2011 09/01/2011 06/01/2011 03/01/2011 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 06/01/2004 EPS Growth % 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 11.23 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Recommendations 12/01/2000 •ROE has been on a slight upward trend, but is expected to decrease. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 2.50 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 06/01/2004 03/01/2004 12/01/2003 09/01/2003 06/01/2003 03/01/2003 12/01/2002 09/01/2002 06/01/2002 03/01/2002 12/01/2001 09/01/2001 06/01/2001 03/01/2001 ROE Relative to S&P 500 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.52 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 •EBITDA Margin is expected to decrease. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 1.20 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 06/01/2004 03/01/2004 12/01/2003 09/01/2003 06/01/2003 03/01/2003 12/01/2002 09/01/2002 06/01/2002 03/01/2002 12/01/2001 09/01/2001 06/01/2001 03/01/2001 12/01/2000 EBITDA Relative to S&P 500 1.60 1.40 1.15 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 •Net profit margin is lower than Coca-Cola’s. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 0.60 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 06/01/2004 03/01/2004 12/01/2003 09/01/2003 06/01/2003 03/01/2003 12/01/2002 09/01/2002 06/01/2002 03/01/2002 12/01/2001 09/01/2001 06/01/2001 03/01/2001 12/01/2000 Profit Margin Relative to KO 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.59 0.40 0.20 0.00 Recommendations PEPSICO Sector Summary 06/01/2004 03/01/2004 12/01/2003 09/01/2003 06/01/2003 03/01/2003 12/01/2002 09/01/2002 06/01/2002 03/01/2002 12/01/2001 09/01/2001 06/01/2001 03/01/2001 12/01/2000 (PEP) Growth Company Comparison 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 PEPSICO 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 (PEP) Cash Flow Per Share PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 Cash Flow per share 14% 6.00 12% 4.80 5.00 10% 4.00 8% 3.00 6% 4% 2.00 2% 1.00 1% 0% 0.00 Recommendations Technical Analysis Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Discounted Cash Flow Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Sensitivity Analysis Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Target Price Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations PepsiCo Recommendation Benefits • Recommendation: Sell 67 bps Current Price: 66.75 Target Price: 74.00 Implied Upside: 13.6% Global leadership in the snack business – Expand snack business in developing and emerging markets • Taking advantage of the coincidence of consumption in snacks and beverages • Purchase of PBG and PAS bottlers • Focus on health and wellness – Expand the “Good for You” portfolio – Continue to make core snacks healthier through innovations in heart-healthy oil, sodium reduction and the additions of whole grains, nuts and seeds. Risks Sector Summary Company Comparison • Failure to realize US bottler integration/synergies • Currency Volatility – 48% of PepsiCo revenue is from operations outside the US. Largest operations are in North America (US, Canada, Mexico) and UK PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Procter & Gamble Analysis -5.00 Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis 12/01/2011 09/01/2011 06/01/2011 03/01/2011 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 06/01/2004 03/01/2004 EPS Growth % 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -10.00 -15.00 •EPS growth is expected to remain negative. Recommendations -10% -60% 06/01/2000 09/01/2000 12/01/2000 03/01/2001 06/01/2001 09/01/2001 12/01/2001 03/01/2002 06/01/2002 09/01/2002 12/01/2002 03/01/2003 06/01/2003 09/01/2003 12/01/2003 03/01/2004 06/01/2004 09/01/2004 12/01/2004 03/01/2005 06/01/2005 09/01/2005 12/01/2005 03/01/2006 06/01/2006 09/01/2006 12/01/2006 03/01/2007 06/01/2007 09/01/2007 12/01/2007 03/01/2008 06/01/2008 09/01/2008 12/01/2008 03/01/2009 06/01/2009 09/01/2009 12/01/2009 03/01/2010 06/01/2010 09/01/2010 12/01/2010 ROE % 50% 45.00 40% 40.00 30% 35.00 20% 10% 14% -20% -50% PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG) Growth Sector Summary Company Comparison PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG) Return on Equity PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis 30.00 0% 25.00 20.00 15.00 -30% -40% 10.00 5.00 0.00 •ROE is at low levels of the decade. Recommendations •EBITDA margin is below JNJ. Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations 12/01/2010 09/01/2010 0.85 06/01/2010 03/01/2010 12/01/2009 09/01/2009 06/01/2009 03/01/2009 12/01/2008 09/01/2008 06/01/2008 03/01/2008 12/01/2007 09/01/2007 06/01/2007 03/01/2007 12/01/2006 09/01/2006 06/01/2006 03/01/2006 12/01/2005 09/01/2005 06/01/2005 03/01/2005 12/01/2004 09/01/2004 06/01/2004 03/01/2004 12/01/2003 09/01/2003 06/01/2003 03/01/2003 12/01/2002 09/01/2002 06/01/2002 03/01/2002 12/01/2001 09/01/2001 06/01/2001 03/01/2001 12/01/2000 09/01/2000 06/01/2000 EBITA Margin Relative to JNJ 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.86 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 -10.00% 06/01/2000 09/01/2000 12/01/2000 03/01/2001 06/01/2001 09/01/2001 12/01/2001 03/01/2002 06/01/2002 09/01/2002 12/01/2002 03/01/2003 06/01/2003 09/01/2003 12/01/2003 03/01/2004 06/01/2004 09/01/2004 12/01/2004 03/01/2005 06/01/2005 09/01/2005 12/01/2005 03/01/2006 06/01/2006 09/01/2006 12/01/2006 03/01/2007 06/01/2007 09/01/2007 12/01/2007 03/01/2008 06/01/2008 09/01/2008 12/01/2008 03/01/2009 06/01/2009 09/01/2009 12/01/2009 03/01/2010 06/01/2010 09/01/2010 12/01/2010 Net Profit Margin % 50.00% 18.00 40.00% 15.43 16.00 14.00 30.00% 12.00 20.00% 10.00 10.00% 8.00 8.00% 6.00 0.00% -20.00% •Net Profit Margin has low growth rate and is expected to remain so. PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG) Growth Sector Summary PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG) Net Profit Margin Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis Linear (PROCTER & GAMBLE (PG) Growth) P&G Analysis Recommendations 4.00 2.00 0.00 Technical Analysis Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Absolute Valuation Valuation High P/Forward E 23.9 P/S 22.2 P/B 9.3 P/EBITDA 3.1 P/CF 18.4 Sector Summary Low 11.1 12.6 2.3 1.8 9 Company Comparison M edian 20.7 18.8 3.1 2.6 16.7 PepsiCo Analysis Current 15.2 16.8 2.7 2.4 12.1 P&G Analysis Recommendations Relative Valuation to S&P 500 Relative to S&P 500 P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 1.5 1.3 3.2 3.2 1.4 Sector Summary Low 0.75 1 1 2.1 1 Company Comparison M edian 1.3 1.1 1.3 2.8 1.2 PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Current 0.81 1.1 1.2 2.8 1 Recommendations Relative Valuation to Industry Relative to Industry P/Trailing E P/Forward E P/B P/S P/CF High 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Sector Summary Low 0.83 0.96 0.3 0.9 0.9 Company Comparison M edian 1 1 0.8 1.1 1 PepsiCo Analysis Current 0.99 1.1 0.8 1.1 1 P&G Analysis Recommendations Price Target 72.162 78.6 66.025 P/CF 1 P/EBITDA 70.41 P/B 65.975 P/S 79.8 65 70 Sector Summary 75 Company Comparison P/Forward E 80 PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Discounted Cash Flow Model Terminal Discount Rate = Terminal FCF Growth = Year Revenue 2010E 77,798 2011E 79,138 1.7% 5.8% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 15,395 14,764 15,324 17,146 17,969 18,814 19,661 20,526 21,388 22,265 23,155 % Growth Earnings Before Taxes Earnings Margin Taxes Tax Rate Earnings from Discontinued Interest % of Sales Net Income % of Sales Plus/(minus) Changes WC % of Sales Subtract Cap Ex Capex % of sales Free Cash Flow Shares Outstanding Current Price Implied equity value/share Upside/(Downside) to DCF 2018E 109,681 2019E 2020E 114,178 118,745 18.7% 18.3% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 19.5% 4,291 4,715 4,942 5,174 5,407 5,645 5,882 6,123 6,368 27.0% 27.5% 28.0% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,759 1,843 1,930 2,016 2,105 2,194 2,284 2,375 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 13,436 13,239 12,704 14,190 14,871 15,570 16,270 16,986 17,700 18,425 19,162 -1.5% -4.0% 11.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3,112 3,166 3,350 3,517 3,686 3,859 4,033 4,210 4,387 4,567 4,750 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% (2,179) (108) (373) (879) (922) (965) (1,008) (1,053) (1,097) (1,142) (1,187) -2.8% -0.1% -0.4% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% -1.0% 3,112 3,166 3,350 3,517 3,686 3,859 4,033 4,210 4,387 4,567 4,750 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 11,257 13,130 12,331 13,310 13,949 14,605 15,262 15,934 16,603 17,284 17,975 16.6% -6.1% 7.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% Terminal Value 339,891 15.0 17.0 11.0 12.5 $ $ 2015E 2016E 2017E 96,482 100,824 105,260 4,060 91,612 137,151 228,763 5.59% Current P/E Projected P/E Current EV/EBITDA Projected EV/EBITDA 2014E 92,151 19.8% % Growth NPV of Cash Flows NPV of terminal value Projected Equity Value Free Cash Flow Yield 2013E 87,930 4,157 % Growth Add Depreciation/Amort 2012E 83,743 9.5% 4.0% 40% 60% 100% Free Cash Yield 15.2 17.3 11.4 12.9 15.9 18.0 10.9 12.4 Terminal P/E 17.7 Terminal EV/EBITDA 12.3 3,179 63.38 71.97 13.6% Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis 5.29% P&G Analysis Recommendations Sensitivity Analysis Discount Rate Growth Rate Target Price Upside 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 4.50 74.46 76.21 79.19 81.93 84.98 71.18 73.20 75.41 77.84 80.52 68.19 70.00 71.97 74.14 76.52 63.43 67.06 68.83 70.77 72.89 17.48% 20.24% 24.94% 29.27% 34.08% 12.31% 15.49% 18.98% 22.81% 27.04% 7.59% 10.44% 13.55% 16.98% 20.73% 0.08% 5.81% 8.60% 11.66% 15.00% Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Procter & Gamble Recommendation Recommendation: Sell 40 bps 3.07% 3.10% 3.00% Current Price: Target Price: $63.38 $72.00 Ratios DCF $72.16 $71.97 Implied Upside: 13.6% Dividend yield: 3.1% Implied Upside w/ Dividend: 16.7% 2.90% 2.80% 2.67% 2.70% 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% Old Weight Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis New Weight P&G Analysis Recommendations Procter & Gamble Risks and Benefits Risks Benefits • International initiative • Currency Volatility • Product Expansion • Pampers Lawsuit • Product leadership • Changes in consumer spending • Increased Advertising • Lower upside relative to other consumer staple companies • Very defensive • Consistent dividends Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Recommendations Stock Recommendation Sell 107 bp Sell 67 bp of Pepsi Sell 40 bp of Procter & Gamble Limited potential upside in both stocks Hold Wal-Mart and Philip Morris due to high upside Sale of 107 bp in our sector will allow other sectors to utilize it to gain better returns for the portfolio Risks Sale of 107 bp will leave the portfolio less defensive should the economy decline again Sector Summary Company Comparison PepsiCo Analysis P&G Analysis Recommendations Questions?