ECONOMIC REPORT of the HUDSON VALLEY Third Quarter 2010 MARIST COLLEGE Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601 Edited by Leslie Bates December 2010 This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau The support of research assistant Haley Hart and student research assistant Serena Bubenheim is acknowledged and appreciated. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors. Economic Report of the Hudson Valley The increase in employment and labor force participation witnessed in the 2nd quarter of 2010 continued into the 3rd quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, employment and labor force participation advanced 1.12% and 1.36%, respectively. Because labor force participation grew by more than the increase in the number of jobs, the unemployment rate advanced .08% from 7.23% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 7.31% in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Year-to-date, the number of jobs held by Hudson Valley residents has increased by 51,968 and the number of persons willing and able to work advanced by 4,687. As has been the case throughout the economic downturn, residents in the Putnam-RocklandWestchester metropolitan statistical area (MSA) (lower Hudson Valley) experienced a lower rate of joblessness in the 3rd quarter of 2010 when compared to residents in the upper Hudson Valley. Employment within the Hudson Valley continues to fall. Between the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010, non-farm employment in the Hudson Valley fell (400) from 919,300 jobs in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 918,900 in the 3rd quarter. The decline is explained by an 8,200 reduction in government-sector employment and a 7,800 increase in private-sector employment. Employment in the manufacturing sector advanced (300). As of the 3rd quarter, employment in the goods-producing industries accounted for 10.44% of total non-farm employment – up from 10.09% in the 2nd quarter of 2009; service-providing employment fell from 89.89% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 89.57% in the 3rd quarter. Over the same period, employment in the government sector as a share of total non-farm employment fell from 19.88% to 19.00%. Year-over-year, government- and service-sector employment as a share of total non-farm employment advanced; goodsproducing as a share of non-farm employment fell. Since the end of the previous business cycle in December of 2007, the job count in the Hudson Valley region has declined 6.34% compared to a nationwide decline of 5.51%. On average, the region has fared better than the overall economy (in the relative job loss) in the manufacturing, and professional and business services sectors. Both sectors pay aboveaverage weekly wages and are important employers in the Hudson Valley region. In contrast, the relative job loss in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector and the leisure and hospitality sector exceeded the relative job loss in the national economy. Of particular importance is the strong interdependence between unskilled and semi-skilled workers and the leisure and hospitality sector. Unskilled and semi-skilled workers are particularly vulnerable to economic downturns and are the least able to retrain and relocate. As a direct consequence, the greater the concentration of leisure and hospitality jobs the greater the need for social services to lessen the impact of economic downturns. Region-wide, during the 2nd quarter 2010, Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the non-farm sector advanced relative to the 2nd quarter of 2009. The largest year-over-year advances occurred in the northernmost counties of Greene and Columbia at 6.98% and 6.65%, respectively. Columbia County experienced a 16.46% year-over-year advance in the AWW paid in the government sector. Within the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA, Rockland County experienced an above-average increase in the AWW paid in the goods-producing industries and the largest percentage increase in government AWW at 4.15%. Over the balance of the region, the year-over-year increase in the AWW in the Page 1 of 10 nonfarm sector ranged from a low of 1.04% in Sullivan County to a high of 2.33% in Dutchess County. As is typically the case, the highest AWW in the non-farm sector was paid in Westchester County ($1,166), followed by Rockland($954) and Dutchess($922).The highest AWW in the goods-producing industries was paid in Dutchess County ($1,565), followed by Westchester ($1,481) and Rockland ($1,316).The highest AWW in the service-providing industries was paid in Westchester ($1,066), Rockland ($822), and Putnam ($744).The AWW in the government sector was the highest in the three counties that populate the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA. In the 3rd quarter of 2010 the number of persons who received food stamp benefits advanced from one out of every 12.3 in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to one out of every 11.9 persons in the 3rd quarter. However, while the absolute number of persons who received food stamp benefits increased, the rate of increase is falling. The number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) – which includes Family Assistance (FA) and Safety Net Assistance (SNA) – increased during the 3rd quarter: from 34,050 persons in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 34,450 persons in the 3rd quarter of 2010.Yearover-year, the number of monthly TA recipients advanced 9.20%.Over the same time period, the monthly expenditure for TA advanced $.94 million, from $13.14 million per month in the 3rd quarter of 2009 to $14.08 million per month in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Quarter-over-quarter, the monthly per-person SNA and FA benefit fell from $523 and $391 in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to $465.78 and $358.45 in the 3rd quarter. Safety Net Assistance is the more costly of the two programs at 53.30% of total TA expenditures; FA serves the largest number of persons. The median selling price of an existing single-family home continues to improve, but on average remains well below the peak evaluations recorded prior to the mortgage crisis. The two exceptions are Greene and Westchester counties. As of the 3rd quarter, Greene County reached a new peak evaluation at $270,500, albeit on weak sales volume. In Westchester County, in the 3rd quarter, the median selling price at $718,333 was relatively small, 1.60% below the peak median selling price recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2007. Across the region, 3rd quarter sales of existing single-family homes (3,010) fell 16.00% relative to the 2nd quarter of 2010 (3,587). Year-over-year, existing home sales declined 17.35%. Over the same one-year period, existing home sales in New York State and the U.S. fell 25.38% and 21.44%, respectively. Foreclosure activity continues to negatively impact the housing market. During the 3rd quarter of 2010, lenders filed 1,426 pre-foreclosure notices, 594 homes were auctioned, and bank-owned properties (REO) increased by 256. During the months of October and November of 2010, total foreclosure activity declined in every county except Rockland and Orange. Weak home sales in concert with excess inventory remain a negative for residential construction. In the 3rd quarter of 2010, 287 single-family construction permits were issued in the Hudson Valley, unchanged relative to the 2nd quarter. During the same three-month period, 21 multiple-family construction permits were issued, down from 50 in the 2nd quarter. Within the region, Rockland County issued the most multi-family permits (6), followed by Orange (5). As of the 3rd quarter, the largest construction project in the region is a $15.36 million, 30 building/376-unit complex in Newburgh. Permits for this project were issued in the 1st quarter of 2010. In summation, employment is improving as is the willingness of persons to enter the labor force. However, job growth within the region remains weak. As a direct Page 2 of 10 consequence, more and more workers will need to look outside the region for gainful employment. The question is how will this disjoint between the willingness to work and the availability of jobs impact the regional economy? On the one hand, commuter income is a net economic gain allowing small businesses to flourish. On the other, travel costs and time can negatively impact the quality of life and thereby the strength of the community. Further, while jobs are available, the decline in housing values and the overall uncertainty in the housing market has severely limited the mobility of the labor force. This is one of the many reasons for the lack of clear progress on the job front and a contributing factor to the anemic activity in the residential housing sector. Finally, while retail sales activity (as witnessed by sales tax collections) in the region has begun to improve, sustainable improvement will not occur until income maintenance payments are substituted by gainful employment. Page 3 of 10 Hudson Valley Labor Force The increase in employment and labor force participation witnessed in the 2nd quarter of 2010 continued into the 3rd quarter. Quarter-over-quarter, employment and labor force participation advanced 1.12% and 1.36%, respectively. Because labor force participation grew by more than the increase in the number of jobs, the unemployment rate advanced .08% from 7.23% in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 7.31% in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Year-to-date, the job count in the Hudson Valley has increased by 51,968 and the number of persons willing and able to work has increased by 4,687. Relative to the nearterm peak reached in the 3rd quarter of 2008, the job count is down (48,231) from 1,170,000 in the 3rd quarter of 2008 to 1,121,769 in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Over the same two-year period, labor force participation fell 25,111, from 1,234,000 during the 3rd quarter of 2008 to 1,208,889 in the 3rd quarter of 2010.As has been the case throughout the economic downturn, residents in the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester metropolitan statistical area (MSA) (lower Hudson Valley) experienced a lower rate of joblessness in the 3rd quarter of 2010 when compared to residents in the upper Hudson Valley. Non-Farm Employment by Place of Work1 Since the end of the previous business cycle in December of 2007, the job count in the Hudson Valley region has declined 6.34% compared to a nationwide decline of 5.51%. Within the region, the total job count has declined 7.38% in the Rockland-WestchesterPutnam, NY MSA, 5.50% in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh Middletown, NY MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties) and 4.67% in Ulster County. As a percent of total nonfarm jobs lost, the region fared better than the overall economy in the manufacturing, and professional and business services sectors. In contrast, the relative job loss in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector and the leisure and hospitality sector exceeded the relative job loss in the national economy. Of particular importance is the strong interdependence between unskilled and semi-skilled workers and the leisure and hospitality sector. Between the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010, non-farm employment in the Hudson Valley fell (400) from 919,300 jobs in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 918,900 in the 3rd quarter. The decline is % of Non-Farm explained by Employment in Job Loss Since an 8,200 Sector December of 2007 December 2007 % of Total Job Loss Job numbers in Hudson Hudson Hudson reduction in 1000’s U.S. Valley U.S. Valley U.S. Valley governmentManufacturing 9.99% 6.21% -2,018.7 -9.4 26.54% 15.11% sector Trade, Transportation, employment and Utilities 19.85% 20.51% -2,607.7 -25.2 34.28% 40.51% and a 7,800 Information 2.20% 2.31% -318.0 -2.9 4.18% 4.71% increase in Financial Activities 5.97% 5.28% -614.7 -4.5 8.08% 7.23% Professional and privateBusiness Services 13.13% 10.68% -1,279.3 -7.8 16.82% 12.54% sector Leisure and employment. Hospitality 9.60% 7.70% 403.3 9.6 -5.30% -15.43% 1 Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers, and the military. Place of Work Series. Page 4 of 10 Employment in the manufacturing sector advanced (300). As of the 3rd quarter, employment in the goods-producing industries accounted for 10.44% of total non-farm employment – up from 10.09% in the 2nd quarter of 2009; service-providing employment fell from 89.89% Composition of Non-Farm Employment in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 89.57% PrivateServiceGoodsDate Gov. Sector Providing Producing Manu. in the 3rd quarter. Over the same Hudson Valley Dec-07 18.60% 81.40% 87.81% 12.19% 6.28% period, Q3.2009 18.82% 79.27% 88.41% 11.74% 5.89% employment in Q2.2010 19.88% 80.12% 89.89% 10.09% 5.57% the government Q3.2010 19.00% 80.97% 89.57% 10.44% 5.60% sector as a share NYS Dec-07 17.16% 84.22% 89.76% 10.24% 6.15% of total non-farm Q3.2009 17.65% 82.35% 90.43% 9.57% 5.53% employment fell from 19.88% to Q2.2010 17.90% 82.10% 90.92% 9.08% 5.37% 19.00%. YearQ3.2010 17.05% 82.92% 90.54% 9.46% 5.47% over-year, U.S. Dec-07 16.37% 83.78% 84.23% 15.77% 9.92% government and Q3.2009 16.64% 82.73% 85.69% 14.31% 9.04% service-sector Q2.2010 17.45% 82.55% 86.21% 13.79% 8.94% employment as a Q3.2010 16.53% 82.86% 85.88% 14.12% 9.02% share of total non-farm employment advanced; goods-producing as a share of non-farm employment fell. Within the region, the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh -Middletown, NY MSA had the largest concentration of manufacturing employment at 7.40% of total non-farm employment; as of the 3rd quarter of 2010, the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA had the largest job count at 26,500. Quarter-over-quarter, non-farm employment in the RocklandWestchester-Putnam, NY MSA advanced .18%, from 548,400 jobs in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 549,400 jobs in the 3rd quarter. Employment in the private sector advanced (3,500). Of this total, 1,700 jobs were in the service-providing sector and 1,800 were in the goods-producing sector. Employment increased in the leisure and hospitality sector (4,200) and the professional and business services sector (1,400). Employment in the private education sector and the trade, transportation, and utilities sector declined, 2,700 and 1,100, respectively. During the 3rd quarter, the job count in the information sector reached a new near-term low at 13,700. Non-farm employment in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties) fell 1.01%, from 247,900 jobs in the 2rd quarter of 2010 to 245,400 in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Employment in the government sector fell 3,900; the private sector added 1,500 jobs: 800 jobs were in the service-providing sector. The largest increase in job count occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector (1,500); the largest reduction in job count occurred in the private education service sector (1,400). During the 3rd quarter, employment in the transportation and warehousing sector, the finance and insurance sector, and the education service sector reached near-term lows. Since December of 2007 (the peak of the previous business cycle) the private and public job count in the education sector has declined by 5,700. Non-farm employment in the Kingston, NY MSA (Ulster County) fell 1.13% from 62,000 jobs in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 61,300 jobs in the 3rd quarter of 2010. During the period, employment in the government sector fell by 1,200; the job count in the public Page 5 of 10 education sector fell by 1,400. The private sector added 500 jobs. Quarter-over-quarter, employment advanced 4.28% in Sullivan County, advanced .49% in Columbia County, and fell 2.72% in Greene County. Second Quarter 2010 Average Weekly Wages2 Region-wide, in the 2nd quarter 2010, Average Weekly Wage (AWW) in the nonfarm sector advanced relative to the 2nd quarter of 2009. The largest year-over-year advances occurred in the northernmost counties of Greene and Columbia at 6.98% and 6.65%, respectively. Columbia County experienced a 16.46% yearover-year advance in the AWW paid in the government sector; Greene County experienced an 11.07% increase in the AWW paid in the service-providing sector. In the southern counties of Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam, the AWW paid in the non-farm sector advanced 3.73%, 4.39%, and 2.21%, respectively. Westchester and Rockland experienced above-average increases in the AWW paid in the goodsproducing industries. Within the Rockland-WestchesterPutnam, NY MSA, Rockland County witnessed the largest increase in government AWW at 4.15%. The year-over-year increase in the government AWW paid in Westchester and Putnam counties was 1.43% and 1.11%, respectively: 2 Average Weekly Wages Non-farm GoodsProducing ServiceProviding Government Columbia 2008.Q2 $647.81 $780.08 $591.89 $716.62 2009.Q2 $656.64 $795.33 $593.23 $755.02 2010.Q2 $700.31 $801.59 $609.75 $879.28 2008.Q2 $886.22 $1,483.58 $668.55 $1,074.05 2009.Q2 $900.95 $1,560.05 $687.00 $1,077.64 2010.Q2 $921.97 $1,565.48 $704.75 $1,152.32 2008.Q2 $672.23 $862.29 $491.67 $910.02 2009.Q2 $673.61 $874.34 $497.65 $893.92 2010.Q2 $720.61 $935.88 $552.72 $938.56 2008.Q2 $755.00 $831.88 $638.02 $1,079.64 2009.Q2 $779.31 $844.23 $654.42 $1,130.35 2010.Q2 $791.48 $858.71 $662.26 $1,159.25 2008.Q2 $872.77 $986.71 $713.07 $1,314.48 2009.Q2 $889.34 $967.50 $722.34 $1,374.17 2010.Q2 $908.95 $977.01 $744.06 $1,389.45 2008.Q2 $917.81 $1,239.47 $785.28 $1,117.53 2009.Q2 $914.00 $1,229.89 $784.22 $1,118.90 2010.Q2 $954.13 $1,316.16 $821.81 $1,165.28 $684.25 $646.37 $570.38 $981.13 Dutchess Greene Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan 2008.Q2 2009.Q2 $682.09 $634.20 $565.27 $988.67 2010.Q2 $689.15 $623.00 $567.35 $1,010.83 2008.Q2 $710.66 $827.42 $565.99 $1,030.84 2009.Q2 $718.96 $799.97 $571.57 $1,053.73 2010.Q2 $732.27 $795.66 $578.69 $1,087.45 2008.Q2 $1,141.63 $1,456.33 $1,052.45 $1,348.66 2009.Q2 $1,124.07 $1,353.36 $1,027.31 $1,427.04 2010.Q2 $1,165.95 $1,480.97 $1,065.61 $1,447.42 Ulster Westchester Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request to the New York State Department of Labor. Page 6 of 10 low relative to the region. Over the balance of the region, the year-over-year increase in the AWW in the non-farm sector ranged from a low of 1.04% in Sullivan County to a high of 2.33% in Dutchess County. As is typically the case, the highest AWW in the non-farm sector was paid in Westchester County ($1,166), followed by Rockland($954) and Dutchess($922).The highest AWW in the goods-producing industries was paid in Dutchess County ($1,565), followed by Westchester ($1,481) and Rockland($1,316).The highest AWW in the service-providing industries was paid in Westchester ($1,066), Rockland ($822), and Putnam ($744).The AWW in the government sector was the highest in the three counties that populate the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA. Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance) As of the 3nd quarter of 2010, approximately one out of every 11.9 persons in the Hudson Valley was receiving food stamp benefits – up from 12.3 in the 2nd quarter of 2010. There was a significant decline in the rate of increase. In the 3rd quarter of 2010, 202,077 residents of the Hudson Valley were receiving monthly food stamp benefits compared to 194,655 persons in the 2nd quarter of 2010 and 186,900 persons in the 1st quarter of 2010. The quarter-over-quarter rate of increase declined to 3.81% from 4.15% between the 2nd and 1st quarters of 2010. Relative to the 3rd quarter of 2009, the number of monthly food stamp recipients has increased 20.47%. Statewide, 2.88 million persons ( one out of every 6.80 persons) received food stamp benefits during the third quarter of 2010; 61% of all food stamp recipients were residents of NYC. The number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly Temporary Assistance (TA) – which includes Family Assistance (FA)3 and Safety Net Assistance (SNA)4 – increased from 34,050 persons in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to 34,450 persons in the 3rd quarter of 2010.Year-over-year, the number of monthly TA recipients advanced 9.20%. Over the same time period, the monthly expenditure for TA advanced $.94 million, from $13.14 million per month in the 3rd quarter of 2009 to $14.08 million per month in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Quarter-over-quarter, the monthly per-person SNA and FA benefit fell from $523 and $391 in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to $465.78 and $358.45 in the 3rd quarter. Safety Net Assistance is the more costly of the two programs at 53.30% of total TA expenditures; FA serves the largest number of persons. 3 As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include (care for) a minor child. 4 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years. Page 7 of 10 Home Sales, Prices, and Building Permits Home prices show improvement. Sales volume remains weak. The median selling price of an existing single-family home continues to improve, but on average remains well below the peak evaluations recorded prior to the mortgage crisis. The two exceptions are Greene and Westchester counties. As of the 3rd quarter, Greene County reached a County Peak Peak 3rd Qt % new peak evaluation at Date Median Median Change $270,500, albeit on weak Price Price sales volume. In Columbia 2007.Q1 $256,750 $196,333 -23.53% Westchester County, the Dutchess 2006.Q3 $360,000 $278,333 -22.69% 3rd quarter, median Greene 2010.Q3 $270,500 $270,500 0.00% selling price at $718,333 Orange 2007.Q3 $330,000 $267,083 -19.07% was relatively small, Putnam 2006.Q2 $435,777 $330,000 -24.27% 1.60% below the peak Rockland 2005.Q3 $529,950 $424,333 -19.93% median selling price rd Sullivan 2007.Q2 $187,500 $130,817 -30.23% recorded in the 3 quarter of 2007. Across Ulster 2007.Q3 $265,000 $221,167 -16.54% the region, 3rd quarter Westchester 2007.Q3 $730,000 $718,333 -1.60% sales of existing singlefamily homes (3,010) fell 16.00% relative to the 2nd quarter of 2010 (3,587). Year-over-year, existing home sales declined 17.35%. Over the same one-year period, existing home sales in New York State and the U.S. fell 25.38% and 21.44%, respectively. Foreclosure activity continues to negatively impact the housing market albeit at a slower rate. In the 3rd quarter of 2010, lenders filed 1,426 pre-foreclosure notices, 594 homes were auctioned, and bankowned properties (REO) increased by 256. During the months of October and November of 2010, foreclosure activity declined in every county except Rockland and Orange. In the 3rd quarter of 2010, 287 single-family construction permits were issued in the Hudson Valley, unchanged relative to the 2nd quarter. The total construction cost is estimated at $70.97 million or $247,295 per permit. Orange County issued the most single-family construction permits (112) followed by Westchester (45) and Dutchess (36). In the 3rd quarter, 21 multiple-family construction permits were issued compared to 50 in the 2nd quarter. Rockland County issued the most multi-family permits (6) followed by Orange (5). As of the 3rd quarter, the largest construction project in the region is a $15.36 Page 8 of 10 million, 30 building/376-unit complex in Newburgh. Permits for this project were issued in the 1st quarter of 2010. Multi-Family Construction Permits January - September 2010: Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Town/Village Number of Buildings Number of Units Value of Construction Permit Average Construction Cost per Unit Orange Kiryas Joel Village 5 23 $2,353,010 $102,305 Montgomery Town 1 2 $338,722 $169,361 Montgomery Village 6 30 $1,531,248 $51,042 New Windsor Town 3 29 $3,207,725 $110,611 32 388 $16,766,846 $43,214 1 15 $2,250,000 $150,000 48 487 $26,447,551 $54,307 Newburgh Town Wallkill Town Putnam Patterson Town 1 5 $304,167 $60,833 Philipstown Town 1 2 $400,000 $200,000 2 7 $704,167 $100,595 Clarkstown Town 7 86 $5,720,000 $66,512 Kaser Village New Hempstead Village 1 9 $1,050,417 $116,713 2 4 $760,000 $190,000 New Square Village 2 6 $985,000 $164,167 Spring Valley Village 2 20 $1,780,000 $89,000 Stony Point Town 1 2 $225,000 $112,500 15 127 $10,520,417 $82,838 Rockland Sullivan Fallsburg Town 10 20 $820,976 $41,049 10 20 $820,976 $41,049 Kingston Town 1 4 $426,764 $106,691 Lloyd Town 2 43 $2,200,000 $51,163 Wawarsing Town 1 45 $600,000 $13,333 4 92 $3,226,764 $35,074 Bedford Town 1 4 $718,200 $179,550 Greenburgh Town 2 8 $1,480,000 $185,000 Ulster Westchester Mount Vernon 1 2 $143,574 $71,787 Port Chester 1 2 $200,000 $100,000 Somers Town 2 73 $9,000,000 $123,288 White Plains 2 4 $400,000 $100,000 Yonkers 5 81 $12,450,157 $153,706 14 174 $24,391,931 $140,184 Page 9 of 10 Regional and National Inflation Core inflation advances 1.40% in the 3rd quarter of 2010 12-Month Quarterto- Quarter Percentage Change New York-Northern NJ-Long Island 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 U.S. City Average 2010 Q3 2010 Q2 2010 Q1 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 Core 1.40% 1.26% 1.35% 1.58% 1.40% 0.82% 1.03% 1.34% 1.74% 1.51% All Items 11.91% 12.39% 2.11% 1.37% -0.86% 1.08% 1.39% 2.36% 1.44% -1.63% Food Rent Primary Residence 1.29% 0.75% -0.10% -0.16% 0.80% 1.11% 0.69% -0.12% -0.59% 0.37% 2.56% 1.32% 1.54% 2.06% 3.13% 0.07% -0.02% 0.31% 0.94% 1.97% Owner's Equivalent Rent 0.38% 0.25% 0.80% 1.10% 2.00% -0.18% -0.23% 0.23% 0.90% 1.57% Household Energy -0.23% 4.45% 0.13% -3.79% 13.66% 2.46% 1.68% -2.35% -6.24% -12.27% 29.98% 12.63% 33.63% 42.96% 12.38% -36.64% Gasoline 2.72% 23.01% 45.70% 17.17% Medical 2.72% 2.93% 2.10% 1.52% 0.46% 3.27% 3.50% 3.61% 3.47% 3.33% Services 1.12% 1.39% 1.06% 1.31% 1.13% 0.83% 0.84% 0.61% 0.90% 0.70% Sales Tax Collection An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales tax collection. In the 3rd quarter of 2010, total sales tax collection advanced 4.81% from $296.8 million in the 3rd quarter of 2009 to $311.1 million in the 3rd quarter of 2010. The largest quarter-over-quarter increase occurred in Dutchess County (12.62%) followed by Columbia (6.16%) and Orange (5.52%). Sales tax collection declined 1.40% in Sullivan County and .53% in Rockland County. Region-wide, sales tax collection increased .83% between the 2nd quarter of 2010 and the 3rd quarter of 2010. Quarterly Sales Tax Collection 2010.Q3 2009.Q3 2008.Q3 2007.Q3 2006.Q3 Columbia $8,161,269 $7,687,494 $8,841,393 $8,073,877 $7,524,383 Dutchess $40,314,043 $35,797,119 $41,583,570 $39,410,874 $38,411,271 Greene $6,766,534 $6,544,795 $7,864,924 $7,336,834 $7,310,998 Orange $57,224,096 $54,232,791 $59,777,665 $56,859,224 $55,947,753 Putnam $12,496,269 $12,086,192 $13,702,969 $11,788,835 $11,352,970 Rockland $41,450,315 $41,670,303 $44,473,849 $43,194,708 $40,033,679 Sullivan $9,495,109 $9,629,777 $11,251,801 $10,263,866 $9,448,145 Ulster $25,467,067 $24,427,327 $27,008,397 $25,898,073 $26,137,599 Westchester $109,761,933 $104,774,825 $118,979,962 $115,248,658 $113,135,478 Hudson Valley $311,136,635 $296,850,623 $333,484,530 $318,074,949 $309,302,276 Ω Page 10 of 10