ECONOMIC REPORT
of the
HUDSON VALLEY
First Quarter 2012
MARIST COLLEGE
Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi
Bureau of Economic Research
School of Management
Poughkeepsie, New York 12601
Edited by Leslie Bates
June 2012
This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at
http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau
The support of research assistant Sam English
is acknowledged and appreciated.
While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College
cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.
Hudson Valley
Summary
In recent months, economic activity in the U.S. economy has begun to slow as has the
rate of job creation. Current projections place 2012 GDP growth between 1.9 and 2.4 percent—a
.5 percent downward revision—with the national unemployment rate remaining above 7.00
percent well into 2014. The European debt crisis weights heavily on the U.S. financial system
and is a significant threat to the free flow of household and business credit.
Across the region, the job count has advanced in each of the last seven quarters, year over
year. As of the first quarter, the job count at 888,533 was 2.40 percent above the inter-recession
trough—first quarter of 2010 at 867,733—but remained 4.00 percent below the peak—third
quarter of 2008 at 925,467. Overall, the region has recaptured 35 percent (20,800) of all jobs lost
because of the recession. The sectors that have rebounded the fastest are trade, transportation
and utilities (8,700), education and health services (7,567), professional and business services
(7,333), leisure and hospitality (2,667), financial activities (1,900) and natural resources, mining
and construction (167). Two significant developments are the loss of jobs in the information
sector (3,467 since the peak/1,367 since the trough) and the continued movement away from
manufacturing employment. As of the first quarter of 2012, the job count in the manufacturing
sector had fallen 16.62 percent (9,333) below peak and 4.39 percent (2,467) below the trough.
This stands in stark contrast to the national trend; nationwide, manufacturing employment has
risen 4.90 percent (554,000 jobs) above the trough (February of 2010), recapturing 27.00
percent of all jobs (2.03 million) lost since the pre-recession peak (August 2007).
Year over year, labor force participation was unchanged at 1,140,000. In the upper
Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster counties—the labor force posted a yearover-year increase (1,600) from 437,700 participants in the first quarter of 2011 to 439,300 in the
first quarter of 2012, while the labor force in the lower Hudson Valley—Putnam, Rockland and
Westchester—fell (1,600) from 676,300 to 674,700. Over the same 12-month period, labor force
participation in New York State was little changed, rising (3,300) from 9,479,700 in the first
quarter of 2011 to 9,483,000 in the first quarter of 2012; participation in the national (civilian)
labor force posted a moderate increase at 0.90 percent (1,378,300), from 153.31 million to 154.66
million.
Regional employment changed little, falling five tenths of one percent (533) from
1,029,033 in the first quarter of 2011 to 1,028,500 in the first quarter of 2012. Employment
decreased in the lower Hudson Valley (1,800) from 628,333 to 626,533 as employment in the
upper Hudson Valley increased (1,366) from 400,667 to 402,033. Because the number of persons
in the regional labor force remained constant at the same time as employment fell, the regional
unemployment rate posted a slight year-over-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, from 7.60
percent to 7.67 percent. Within the region, the unemployment rate advanced 0.04 percentage
points in the lower Hudson Valley and 0.03 percentage points in the upper Hudson Valley. Over
the same period, employment in New York State fell (38,833) from 8,667,833 to 8,629,000; the
unemployment rate increased from 8.57 percent to 9.00 percent, on average. Nationwide,
employment advanced 1.70 percent (2.36 million), from 139.55 million in the first quarter of 2011
to 141.91 million in the first quarter of 2012; the unemployment rate fell from 9.00 percent to 8.27
percent, on average. As of May 2012, the unemployment rate was 7.60 percent in the Hudson
Valley, 8.15 percent in the upper Hudson Valley, 7.00 percent in the lower Hudson Valley and 8.6
percent in New York State. Nationwide, the May unemployment rate was 8.20 percent.
As of the fourth quarter of 2011—most current numbers—the average weekly privatesector wage, valued in current dollars, in Westchester County at $1,265 ranked second highest in
the state; New York County (Manhattan) ranked the highest at $2,011. Rockland County at $969
ranked fifth, Dutchess County at $942 ranked eighth and Putnam County at $912 ranked 11th.
Orange ($734), Ulster ($670) and Sullivan ($644) counties ranked 27th, 44th and 52nd, respectively.
Region-wide, the average weekly private-sector wage fell 3.50 percent year over year, from $1,204
in the fourth quarter of 2010 to $1,168 in the fourth quarter of 2011. Statewide, the average weekly
private-sector wage fell 1.75 percent, from $1,249 to $1,227. Overall, of the 62 counties in New
York State, only 11 counties posted a year-over-year increase greater than one percent, while 45
counties experienced negative wage growth.
Throughout the region, the average weekly wage in the public sector was greater than the
average weekly wage paid in the private sector, with the ratio of private to public wages ranging
from a low of 66.77 percent (66.77 cents per dollar) in Sullivan County to a high of 93.67 percent
(93.67 cents per dollar) in Westchester County; region-wide, the ratio of private to public was
89.53 percent (89.53 cents per dollar). As of the fourth quarter, 68 percent of all private-sector jobs
(68 out of every 100) located in the Hudson Valley region paid average weekly wages less than the
average weekly wage paid by the public sector. Current data supports a continuation if not a
strengthening of this trend.
Preliminary annual wage and employment data for 2012 compiled by the New York State
Department of Labor reports a year-over-year increase in the average annual private-sector wage
of 1.50 percent, from $51,753 in 2010—$995 per week—to $52,530 in 2011—$1,010 per week—
while the average annual public-sector wage increased 2.00 percent, from $60,489—$1,163 per
week—to $61,707—$1,187 per week. The average annual private-sector wage paid in the highwage industries1, defined as the top-quintile, advanced 2.00 percent, from $97,278 in 2010—$1,871
per week—to $99,255 in 2011—$1,909 per week. In the low-wage industries2, defined as the
bottom quintile, the average annual wage rose 1.65 percent, from $27,085—$521 per week—to
$27,532—$530 per week. On average, 19.50 percent of all private-sector jobs were in high-wage
industries, 32.46 percent of all private-sector jobs were in low-wage industries and for every $1.00
earned in a high-wage job, $.28 was earned in a low-wage job.
1
Management of Companies and Enterprises, $174,198, Utilities, $113,604, Finance and Insurance, $109,936, Professional and Technical
Services $85,552, Manufacturing, $82,386
Other Services, $30,334, Retail Trade, $28,830, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, $27,805, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and
Hunting, $ 27,369, Accommodation and Food Services, $23,326
2
Dependence on Temporary Assistance Benefits (TA) and food stamps continues to grow.
As of the first quarter, Sullivan County was the most dependent on social assistance with one out
of every 33.61 persons receiving TA benefits and one out of every 6.17 persons receiving food-stamp
benefits. Residents of Dutchess, Rockland and Westchester counties were the least dependent on
TA benefits at one out of every 106.16 persons, one out of every 91.75 persons and one out of every
67.06 persons, respectively. Putnam County was the least dependent on food-stamp benefits at
one out of every 43.09 persons, followed by Dutchess County at one out of every 12.84 persons and
Westchester County at one out of every 12.48 persons. In New York State, one out of every 6.35
persons received food-stamp benefits in the first quarter of 2012.
Housing values remain well below the peak valuations witnessed during the housing
boom—with multiple year-over-year declines the norm. According to a recent Federal Reserve
study, the median net worth of a family in the U.S. fell 39 percent, from $126,000 in 2007 to
$77,300 in 2010. Three-quarters of that decline was due to falling housing values.
The persistent uncertainty in the market for existing homes continues to dampen the
demand for new housing. For the first three months of 2012, the demand for single-family
construction permits fell 6.88 percent, from 160 construction permits with an average cost of
$555,513 per permit during the first quarter of 2011 to 149 construction permits with an average
cost of $257,714 per permit during the first quarter of 2012.Year over year, total construction costs
in the first quarter fell $50.48 million, from $88.88 million in 2011 to $38.40 million in 2012.
Similarly, the demand for multifamily permits posted a year-over-year decrease, from 34
multifamily permits with 370 units during the first quarter of 2011 to 17 multifamily permits with
96 units during the first quarter of 2012. Year over year, the total budgeted construction cost in
the first quarter plummeted 81.04 percent ($34.02 million), from $41.97 million in 2011 to $7.96
million in 2012. The average cost per unit fell 26.93 percent ($30,555), from $113,443 per unit in
2011 to $82,888 in 2012.
Hudson Valley Labor Force
Year over year, labor force is unchanged;
employment posts a slight decline
Employment
Labor Force
Year over year, labor force participation in the Hudson Valley region was unchanged at
1,140,000 participants. In the upper Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster
counties—labor force
Employment and Labor Force Participation in the Hudson Valley:
Data: NYS Department of Labor
participation increased
1,140,000
1,200,000
(1,600) from 437,700
Labor Force
1,120,000
1,180,000
participants in the first
Employment
1,100,000
1,160,000
quarter of 2011 to 439,300
1,080,000
1,140,000
in the first quarter of 2012
1,060,000
1,120,000
while labor force
1,040,000
1,100,000
participation in the lower
Hudson Valley—Putnam,
1,020,000
1,080,000
Rockland and
1,000,000
1,060,000
Westchester—fell (1,600)
from 676,300 to 674,700.
As of the first quarter, 59
percent (674,700) of the total regional labor force (1,140,000) resided in the lower Hudson
Valley; 41 percent (439,300) in the upper Hudson Valley. Over the same 12-month period, labor
force participation in New York State was little changed, rising (3,300) from 9,479,700 in the
first quarter of 2011 to
Employment and Labor Force Participation
9,483,000 in the first
Data: NYS Department of Labor
20000
quarter of 2012;
10000
participation in the
0
national (civilian) labor
-10000
force posted a moderate
Year-Over-Year Change in
increase at 0.90 percent
-20000
Employment
(1,378,300), from 153.31
-30000
million to 154.68 million.
-40000
Year-Over-Year Change in
the Labor Force
Year over year,
-50000
regional employment fell
-60000
by five tenth of one
percent (533), falling from
1,029,033 in the first quarter of 2011 to 1,028,500 in the first quarter of 2012. Employment
decreased in the lower Hudson Valley (1,800) from 628,333 to 626,533 while employment in the
upper Hudson Valley increased (1,367) from 400,667 to 402,0331. Because the number of persons
2012-03
2011-11
2011-07
2011-03
2010-11
2010-07
2010-03
2009-11
2009-07
2009-03
2008-11
2008-07
2012‐03
2011‐11
2011‐07
2011‐03
2010‐11
2010‐07
2010‐03
2009‐11
2009‐07
2009‐03
2008‐11
2008‐07
1
Numbers do not add up to total labor force and total employment due to rounding.
1|Page
in the regional labor force remained constant at the same time as employment fell, the regional
unemployment rate posted a slight year-over-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, from 7.60
percent to 7.67 percent.
Within the region, the unemployment rate advanced 0.04 percentage points in the lower
Hudson Valley and 0.03 percentage points in the upper Hudson Valley. Over the same period,
employment in New York State fell (38,833) from 8,667,833 to 8,629,000; the unemployment rate
increased from 8.57 percent to 9.00 percent, on average. Nationwide, employment advanced 1.70
percent (2.36 million), from 139.55 million in the first quarter of 2011 to 141.91 million in the first
quarter of 2012; the unemployment rate fell from 9.00 percent to 8.27 percent, on average.
As of May 2012, the unemployment rate was 7.60 percent in the Hudson Valley, 8.15
percent in the upper Hudson Valley, 7.00 percent in the lower Hudson Valley and 8.6 percent in
New York State. Nationwide, the May unemployment rate was 8.20 percent.
Hudson Valley
Periods
Change in
Labor Force
Change in
Employment
-13,000
-3,000
Dec 11-Jan 12
1,300
1,800
Jan 12-Feb 12
4,000
-1,900
Feb 12-Mar 12
6,900
5,400
Mar 12-April 12
4,300
10,300
April 12-May 12
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor
NYS
Change
in
Unemp.
Rate
0.9
0.1
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
Change in
Labor Force
-23,100
54,400
-1,200
-29,700
71,100
Change in
Employment
-126,500
44,500
44,500
30,800
13,000
Change
in
Unemp.
Rate
1.10
0.10
-0.50
-0.60
0.50
Region-wide, employment and labor force participation peaked in July of 2008—11
months after the start of the Great Recession—at 1,128,500 and 1,189,500, respectively, and
reached post-recession lows in February of 2011 at 1,026,000 and 1,112,000.2 From peak to trough,
regional employment contracted 9.08 percent (102,500) and the labor force contracted 6.52
percent (77,500). As of May 2012, employment in the region was 7.60 percent (85,700) below
peak; labor force participation was 5.10 percent (60,500) below peak. Statewide, employment
peaked in July of 2008 at 9,262,100 while labor force participation peaked one year later (July of
2009) at 9,816,800. As of May 2012, statewide employment was 5.90 percent (544,800) below
peak; labor force participation was 2.80 percent (274,800) below peak.
2
Revised numbers
2|Page
Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work3
Year over year, employers in the Hudson Valley added 11,867 jobs.
Employment in the private sector increased 12,500.
Public-sector employment fell 633.
Over the 12-month period ending in the first quarter of 2012, the regional job count
advanced 1.35 percent, from
Change in Employment 2011.1 to 2012.1 876,667 in the first quarter of
Data: NYS Department of Labor CES series
2011 to 888,533 in the first
‐2000
0
2000
4000
6000
quarter of 2012; the privateResources, Mining and Construction
133
sector job count increased 1.76
Manufacturing
‐1233
percent from 710,733 to 723,233
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
4000
while the job count in the
‐700
Information
public sector fell 0.38 percent,
Financial Activities
1600
from 165,933 to 165,300. As of
Professional and Business Services
4667
Education and Health Services
the first quarter, one out of
4867
Leisure and Hospitality
‐1100
every 5.38 jobs in the Hudson
Other Services
267
Valley was in the public sector
Government
‐633
compared to one out of every
5.28 in the first quarter of 2011.
Year over year, the
private-sector job count advanced in education and health services (4,867), professional and
business services (4,667), trade, transportation and utilities (4,000), financial activities (1,600)
and natural resources, mining and construction (133). Employment fell in leisure and hospitality
(1,100) and continued to decline in manufacturing (1,233) and information (700). Public-sector
employment fell (633).
Within the Hudson Valley, the total job count advanced in the Rockland-WestchesterPutnam, NY, MSA, the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange
counties), and the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), and fell slightly in Sullivan County.
In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the overall job count advanced
(5,600) from 548,100 in the first quarter of 2011 to 553,700 in the first quarter of 2012. For the
period, the private-sector job count advanced (6,067); the job count in the public sector fell
(467). Job gains were recorded in the professional and business services sector (3,800), the
education and health services sector (3,067), the financial activities sector (1,467), the trade,
transportation and utilities sector (1,167) and the natural resources, mining and construction
sector (433). Over the same period, the private-sector job count declined in the leisure and
hospitality sector (2,467), the manufacturing sector (933), and the information sector (500). The
job count declined (267) in the local government sector; however, local education added (966)
3
Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the military.
Place of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.
3|Page
jobs. In the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA, the overall job count gained
(4,600) to 249,333 in the first quarter of 2012 from 244,733 in the first quarter of 2011. For the
period, the private-sector job count rose (4,233) while the job count in the public sector also
climbed (367). Job gains were recorded in the trade,
transportation and utilities sector (1,933), the
education and health services sector (1,333), the
The regional job count peaked in the
professional and business services sector (867), the
third quarter of 2008 at 925,467 and
leisure and hospitality sector (533) and the financial
reached a post-recession low in the first
activities sector (100). The job count declined in the
quarter of 2010 at 867,733. From peak
natural resources, mining and construction sector
to trough, the private-sector job count
(267), the information sector (200), and the
fell 58,800 while the public sector
manufacturing sector (200). Local government and
added 1,067 jobs. As of the first
local education gained 633 and 567 jobs, respectively.
quarter, the region had recaptured 35
In the Kingston, NY, MSA, the overall job-count
percent (20,767) of all jobs lost since
rose (1,766) to 61,133 in the first quarter of 2012 from
the peak and had risen 2.39 percent
59,367 in the first quarter of 2011. For the period, the
above the trough.
private-sector job count advanced (2,100). However,
the public-sector job count retreated (333). Job gains
were recorded in the trade, transportation and
utilities sector (900), the leisure and hospitality sector (833), the education and health services
sector (367), the natural resources, mining and construction sector (67), and the financial
activities sector (33). The job count remained constant in the professional and business services
sector and the information sector, but declined in the manufacturing sector (100). The job count
fell in both the local government and local education sectors as they each lost 300 jobs. In
Sullivan County the overall job count declined (100). Of this total, the public sector shed (200)
jobs; the private sector added (100) jobs.
The regional job count peaked in the third quarter of 2008 at 925,467 and reached a postrecession low in the first quarter of 2010 at 867,733. From peak to trough, the private-sector job
count fell 58,800 while the public sector added 1,067 jobs. As of the first quarter, the region had
recaptured 35 percent (20,767) of all jobs lost since the peak and had risen 2.39 percent above
the trough. The sectors that have rebounded the fastest are trade, transportation and utilities
(8,733), education and health services (7,700), professional and business services (7,167), leisure
and hospitality (2,800), financial activities (1,867) and natural resources, mining and
construction (100). The only sector to record a net job gain relative to peak is the health and
education sector at 17,667. Two significant developments are the loss of jobs in the information
sector (3,467 since the peak/1,367 since the trough) and the continued movement away from
manufacturing employment. As of the first quarter of 2012, the job count in the manufacturing
sector had fallen 16.62 percent (9,333) below peak and 4.39 percent (2,467) below the trough.
This stands in stark contrast to the national trend: nationwide, manufacturing employment has
risen 4.90 percent (554,000 jobs) above the trough (February of 2010), recapturing 27.00
percent of all jobs (2.03 million) lost since the pre-recession peak (August 2007).
4|Page
Fourth-Quarter 2011 Average Weekly Wages4
Year over year, private-sector wages fall, reversing most
of the year-over-year gains witnessed in the third quarter
As of the fourth quarter, the average weekly wage (AWW) in the private sector—valued
in current dollars—in Westchester
Average Weekly Wage
County at $1,265 ranked second
Yr/Yr
Yr/Yr
Private as
Private
Public
highest in the state; New York County
Change
Change
a % of
Sector
Sector
Private
Public
Public
(Manhattan) ranked the highest at
County/ Region
Dutchess
$2,011. Rockland County at $969
$919
$1,042
2.80%
8.20%
88.20%
2009.Q4
ranked fifth, Dutchess County at $942
$945
$1,074
2.83%
3.07%
87.99%
2010.Q4
ranked eighth and Putnam County at
$942
$1,008
-0.31%
-6.17%
93.48%
2011.Q4
$912 ranked 11th. Orange ($734), Ulster
Orange
$737
$1,029
2.57%
2.90%
71.65%
2009.Q4
($670) and Sullivan ($644) counties
th
th
th
$745
$1,095
0.98%
6.41%
67.99%
2010.Q4
ranked 27 , 44 and 52 , respectively.
$734
$1,084
-1.43%
-1.04%
67.72%
2011.Q4
Region-wide, the average weekly
Putnam
private-sector wage fell 3.50 percent
$926
$1,217
2.71%
9.34%
76.13%
2009.Q4
year over year from $1,204 in the fourth 2010.Q4
$938
$1,243
1.26%
2.11%
75.50%
$912
$1,205
-2.75%
-3.06%
75.75%
2011.Q4
quarter of 2010 to $1,168 in the fourth
Rockland
quarter of 2011.Within the region,
$966
$1,066
-3.45%
4.51%
90.58%
2009.Q4
Sullivan, Westchester and Rockland
$1,008
$1,159
4.37%
8.72%
86.94%
2010.Q4
counties posted the largest year-over$969
$1,087
-3.82%
-6.18%
89.13%
2011.Q4
year percentage loss at 5.52 percent,
Sullivan
4.46 percent and 3.82 percent,
$663
$950
5.55%
5.32%
69.79%
2009.Q4
$680
$991
2.54%
4.32%
68.60%
2010.Q4
respectively. Dutchess County
$644
$965
-5.22%
-2.62%
66.77%
2011.Q4
witnessed the smallest decline at .31
Ulster
5
percent, year over year . Statewide, the
$665
$1,009
2.82%
4.56%
65.94%
2009.Q4
average weekly private-sector wage fell 2010.Q4
$687
$1,024
3.31%
1.48%
67.13%
1.75 percent, from $1,249 to $1,227.
$670
$977
-2.47%
-4.61%
68.64%
2011.Q4
Overall, of the 62 counties in New York Westchester
$1,292
$1,339
4.61%
7.29%
96.50%
2009.Q4
State, only 11 counties posted a year$1,324
$1,376
2.46%
2.77%
96.21%
2010.Q4
over-year increase greater than one
$1,265
$1,350
-4.46%
-1.87%
93.67%
2011.Q4
percent, while 45 counties experienced Hudson Valley
negative wage growth.
$1,055
$1,159
2.79%
6.10%
91.03%
2009.Q4
$1,083
$1,204
2.65%
3.89%
89.94%
2010.Q4
The AWW in the public sector
$1,045
$1,168
-3.50%
-3.05%
89.53%
2011.Q4
fell throughout the Hudson Valley
region, with Rockland County
recording the largest year-over-year loss at 6.18 percent, followed by Dutchess (6.17 percent) and
Ulster (4.61 percent). Throughout the region, the AWW paid in the private sector was less than
the AWW paid in the public sector, with the ratio of private to public wages ranging from a low
of 66.77 percent (66.77 cents per dollar) in Sullivan County to a high of 93.67 percent (93.67 cents
Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request to the New York State Department of Labor.
In the third quarter of 2011, the entire region posted year-over-year increases in the average weekly private-sector wage. Sullivan, Ulster and
Rockland counties recorded the largest year-over-year increases at 8.48 percent, 6.17 percent and 5.76 percent, respectively.
4
5
5|Page
per dollar) in Westchester County; region-wide, the ratio of private to public was 89.53 percent
(89.53 cents per dollar). Over the most recent three-year period, the private to public ratio has
improved in Dutchess, Rockland and Ulster, has worsened in Westchester and Sullivan and was
little changed in both Orange and Putnam. Region-wide, the ratio deteriorated, falling from 91.03
percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 89.53 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. As of the fourth
quarter, 68 percent of all private-sector jobs (68 out of every 100) located in the Hudson Valley
region paid an AWW less than the AWW paid by the public sector. Current data supports a
continuation if not a strengthening of this trend6.
Preliminary annual wage and employment data for 2012 compiled by the New York
State Department of Labor indicates a year-over-year increase in the average annual private-sector
wage of 1.50 percent, from $51,753 in 2010—$995 per week—to $52,530 in 2011—$1010 per
week—while the average annual public-sector wage increased 2.00 percent, from $60,489—$1,163
per week—to $61,707—$1,187 per week. The average annual private-sector wage paid in the highwage industries7, defined as the top quintile, advanced 2.00 percent, from $97,278 in 2010—$1,871
per week—to $99,255 in 2011—$1,909 per week. In the low-wage industries8, defined as the
bottom quintile, the average annual wage rose 1.65 percent from $27,085—$521 per week—to
$27,532—$530 per week. On average, 19.50 percent of all private-sector jobs were in high-wage
industries, 32.46 percent of all private-sector jobs were in low-wage industries and for every $1.00
earned in a high-wage job, $.28 was earned in a low-wage job.
Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance)
Quarter over quarter,
social assistance increases
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly
food-stamp benefits advanced 1.15 percent (2,534), from 220,007 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to
222,541 in the first quarter of 2012. Almost every county in the region experienced an increase in
the number of food-stamp recipients, with Rockland County experiencing the largest-level
increase at 1,026, followed by Sullivan (809), Dutchess (470), Ulster (279), Westchester (250)
and Putnam (157). Orange County, in contrast, saw a decrease in the number of food-stamp
recipients (456). The largest percentage increase occurred in Putnam County at 7.26 percent,
followed by Sullivan County at 6.94 percent. In New York State, the number of food-stamp
recipients posted a .27 percent (8,186) quarter-over-quarter increase.
Food-stamp expenditures decreased 0.22 percent, from $31.54 million per month in the
fourth quarter to $31.47 million per month in the first quarter. The average monthly benefit
decreased from $143.37 per recipient to $141.43 per recipient.
6
See Special Report Income and Employment in the Hudson Valley 2010, June 2012
http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau/pdfs/incomeandemployment2010.pdf
7
Management of Companies and Enterprises, $174,198, Utilities, $113,604, Finance and Insurance, $109,936, Professional and Technical
Services $85,552, Manufacturing, $82,386
8
Other Services, $30,334, Retail Trade, $28,830, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation, $27,805, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and
Hunting, $27,369, Accommodation and Food Services, $23,326
6|Page
Quarter-over-Quarter Change
Number of Monthly Recipients
By County, Sullivan was the most dependent on food-stamp benefits at one out of every
6.17 persons, followed by
Change in the Average Number of Monthly
Rockland, Orange and Ulster
Food-Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data
counties at one out of every 7.38
250,000
12000
persons, one out of every 8.37
10000
200,000
persons and one out of every
8000
8.89 persons, respectively.
150,000
6000
Putnam County was the least
4000
dependent, at one out of every
100,000
43.09 persons, followed by
2000
50,000
Dutchess County at one out of
0
every 12.84 persons and
-2000
0
Westchester County at one out
of every 12.48 persons. In New
York State, one out of every
6.35 persons received food-stamp benefits in the first quarter of 2012.
Across the Hudson Valley, the number of residents who received monthly Temporary
Assistance (TA) benefits—which includes Family Assistance (FA)9 and Safety Net Assistance
(SNA)10—decreased from 34,064 in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 33,896 in the first quarter of
2012. Within the region, the number of TA recipients
increased in Sullivan (124) and Orange (52) and
decreased in Westchester (166), Dutchess (139),
As of the fourth quarter of 2011:
Rockland (24), Ulster (9) and Putnam (6). The largest
one out of every 10.3 persons in the
percentage change occurred in Sullivan County with a
Hudson Valley received foodgrowth of 5.73 percent. Over the same three-month
stamp benefits, one out of every
period, total TA expenditures grew at 3.54 percent over
67.4 received temporary
the $13.98 million per month in the fourth quarter to
assistance benefits and one out of
$14.47 million per month in the first. The average
every 23.5 received home energy
monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $490.50
assistance. and $374.45, respectively, up from $458.00 and $370.00
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
in the fourth quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County
is the most dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out
of every 33.61 persons, followed by Ulster and Orange counties at one out of every 49.52 persons
and one out of every 51.45 persons, respectively. Putnam County is the least dependent at one
out of every 707.07 persons, followed by Dutchess, Rockland and Westchester counties at one
out of every 106.16 persons, one out of every 91.75 persons and one out of every 67.06 persons,
respectively. Year over year, TA recipients increased 2.20 percent from 33,167 persons per month
in the first quarter of 2011 to 33,896 persons in the first quarter of 2012. Over the same one-year
period, the monthly expenditure for TA increased 2.14 percent, from $14.17 million per month to
$14.47 million per month.
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received home energy
assistance11 increased 23.24 percent, from 78,776 persons per month in the fourth quarter of 2011
9
As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include
(care for) a minor child.
10
Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.
11
The Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) is a federally funded program that assists low-income households in paying for the cost of home
heating and the repair and replacement of home heating equipment.
7|Page
to 97,084 persons in the first quarter. The average benefit paid in the first quarter was $199.31
per recipient per month, up from $45.52 per recipient per month in the fourth quarter. Within
the region, the number of home energy recipients increased in each county, including Ulster
(5,100), Orange (4,143), Sullivan (3,172), Dutchess (3,002), Rockland (1,441), Westchester (986)
and Putnam (464). The largest percentage decrease occurred in Sullivan County at negative
69.75 percent. Over the same three-month period, home energy expenditures increased 79.86
percent, from $10.76 million per month in the fourth quarter to $19.35 million per month in the
first quarter of 2012.
Home Sales, Prices and Building Permits
Home prices continue to decline while
sales volume posts a year-over-year decrease.
Year over year, the median selling price of an existing single-family home increased in
Orange (2.25 percent) and Sullivan (.92 percent) counties and declined in Dutchess (6.37
percent), Putnam (20.49 percent), Rockland (4.24 percent), Ulster (21.11 percent) and
Westchester (8.55 percent) counties. Regional sales volume fell 3.40 percent, from 2,088 units
sold in the first quarter of 2011 to 2,017 units sold in the first quarter of 2012. Putnam County
recorded the largest
County
Peak
Peak Median
1st Qt Median
%
decline in sales
Date
Price
Price
Change
Dutchess
2006.Q3
$360,000
$235,000
-34.72%
activity at 19.42
Orange
2007.Q3
$330,000
$250,000
-24.24%
percent (27 units),
Putnam
2006.Q2
$435,777
$277,500
-36.32%
followed by Ulster
Rockland
2005.Q3
$529,950
$372,500
-29.71%
County at 9.00
Sullivan
2007.Q2
$187,500
$110,000
-41.33%
percent ( 16 units),
Ulster
2007.Q3
$265,000
$156,600
-40.91%
Westchester
2007.Q3
$730,000
$505,500
-30.75%
Dutchess County at
6.91 percent (30 units) and Orange County at 2.67 percent ( 9 units). Sales volume increased
6.38 percent in Sullivan County (3 units) and 1.39 percent in Westchester County (10 units)
and was little changed in Rockland County at negative .86 percent (2 units). Statewide, the
median selling price of an existing single-family home declined 4.40 percent, from $224,900 in
the first quarter of 2011 to $215,000 in the first quarter of 2012, while sales volume moved up
3.71 percent (515 units), from 13,893 in the first quarter of 2011 to 14,408 in the first quarter of
2012.
Year-over-Year Change in the Median Selling Price
of a Single-Family Home:
Overall,
Data Source NYSAR
current
First
Quarter
Dutchess
Orange
Putnam Rockland Sullivan
Ulster
Westchester
housing
-$23,500
$8,140
$24,000
-$10,000
$1,000
$1,750
-$5,000
2007
values
$4,250 -$10,000 -$12,500 -$25,000 -$15,050 -$17,400
-$12,500
2008
remain
-$49,250
-$44,550
-$44,050
-$47,500
-$30,950
-$39,790
-$88,500
2009
well below
-$30,000
-$6,050 -$32,450 -$17,500
-$9,000 $24,440
$65,000
2010
the peak
$1,000
-$9,900 $39,000
-$1,000
-$1,000 -$16,500
-$46,250
2011
valuations
-$16,000
$5,500 -$71,500 -$16,500
$1,000 -$41,900
-$47,250
2012
witnessed
during the
housing boom—with multiple year-over-year declines the norm.
8|Page
The persistent uncertainty in the market for single-family homes in concert with tight
credit and prolonged
Single-Family Housing Permits:
weak economic growth
U.S. Census Bureau: *Preliminary Numbers
continues to place
January-March 2012*
January-March 2011
pressure on the demand
Permits Construction Costs Permits Construction Costs
Area
for new housing. For the
17
$4,881,204
21
$6,132,652
Dutchess
first three months of 2012, Orange
45
$7,425,302
59
$11,170,715
11
$3,184,392
17
$5,016,594
Putnam
the demand for single13
$5,172,100
10
$2,580,680
Rockland
family construction
13
$1,591,543
12
$1,451,459
Sullivan
permits fell 6.88 percent,
23
$3,858,098
7
$1,550,517
Ulster
from 160 construction
27
$12,286,684
34
$60,979,393
Westchester
permits with an average
149
$38,399,323
160
$88,882,010
Hudson Valley
cost of $555,513 per
permit during the first quarter of 2011 to 149 construction permits with an average cost of
$257,714 per permit during the first quarter of 2012.
Year over year, total construction costs in the first quarter fell $50.48 million, from
$88.88 million in 2011 to $38.40 million in 2012. For the period, Orange County issued the
largest number of single-family permits at 45, followed by Westchester and Ulster counties at
27 and 23, respectively. Putnam County issued the fewest at 11. The largest year-over-year
declines in the first quarter occurred in Orange and Westchester counties at 14 and 7,
respectively.
Multifamily Construction Permits
January–March 2012:
Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Preliminary Numbers
County
Town/Village
Number of
Buildings
Number of
Units
Value of
Construction Permit
Average Construction
Cost per Unit
Dutchess/Orange
Kiryas Joel Village
Montgomery Village
Newburgh Town
3
2
3
8
20
10
33
63
$2,271,428
$510,416
$1,415,120
$4,196,964
$113,571
$51,042
$42,882
$66,618
Ramapo Town
Spring Valley Village
1
1
2
3
2
5
$276,283
$300,000
$576,283
$92,094
$150,000
$115,257
Fallsburg Town
2
2
4
4
$162,666
$162,666
$40,667
$40,667
Plattekill Town
Shawangunk Town
1
1
2
2
2
4
$85,000
$250,000
$335,000
$42,500
$125,000
$83,750
Eastchester Town
Port Chester Village
Somers Town
1
1
1
3
10
2
8
20
$1,500,000
$200,000
$986,301
$2,686,301
$150,000
$100,000
$123,288
$134,315
Total
Rockland
Total
Sullivan
Total
Ulster
Total
Westchester
Total
9|Page
Similarly, the demand for multifamily permits posted a year-over-year decrease, from 34
multifamily permits with 370 units during the first quarter of 2011 to 17 multifamily permits
with 96 units during the first quarter of 2012. Year over year, the total budgeted construction
cost in the first quarter plummeted 81.04 percent ($34.02 million), from $41.97 million in 2011
to $7.96 million in 2012. The average cost per unit fell 26.93 percent ($30,555), from $113,443
per unit in 2011 to $82,888 in 2012.
Sales-Tax Collection
An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales-tax
collection. Year over year, total sales-tax collection increased 4.58 percent, from $288.1 million in
the first quarter of 2011 to $301.3 million in the first quarter of 2012. The largest year-over-year
dollar increase occurred in Westchester County at $6.89 million (6.29 percent), followed by
Orange and Ulster counties at $4.44 million and $1.23 million, respectively.
Quarterly Sales-Tax Collection
2012.Q1 2011.Q1
2010.Q1
2009.Q1
2008.Q1 2007.Q1
Dutchess
$39,768,149
$39,954,403
$33,237,422
$34,133,431
$34,761,227
$35,412,351
Orange
$58,870,621
$54,429,832
$51,822,130
$52,442,111
$53,429,206
$50,788,201
Putnam
$12,214,802
$11,261,667
$10,639,164
$10,740,232
$12,212,491
$9,776,773
Rockland
$42,034,814
$42,469,069
$39,637,960
$41,073,424
$44,647,633
$38,990,075
Sullivan
$7,485,811
$7,189,369
$6,934,099
$7,587,668
$7,897,302
$6,810,755
Ulster
$24,442,956
$23,216,744
$22,423,983
$22,305,160
$23,751,832
$23,285,987
Westchester
$116,463,697
$109,573,303
$106,834,560
$104,718,131
$118,490,760
$111,123,998
Hudson Valley
$301,280,852
$288,094,387
$271,529,318
$273,000,157
$295,190,451
$276,188,140
Ω
10 | P a g e