ECONOMIC REPORT
of the
HUDSON VALLEY
Second Quarter 2013
MARIST COLLEGE
Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi
Marist Bureau of Economic Research
School of Management
Poughkeepsie, New York 12601
Edited by Leslie Bates
October 2013
This report is available on the Marist Bureau of Economic Research homepage at
http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau
The support of student research assistant Kristen Sandberg
is acknowledged and appreciated.
While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College
cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors.
Hudson Valley Summary
Second Quarter 2013
Year over year, there was little change in either labor force participation or employment,
although because employment advanced while the labor force contracted, the unemployment rate
fell 1.01 percentage points relative to the same period last year. Overall, labor force participation
contracted 0.41 percent (-4,567) from 1,127,333 participants in the second quarter of 2012 to
1,122,767 in the second quarter of the current year while employment posted a slight increase,
advancing 0.68 percent (7,133) from 1,042,167 to 1,049,300. As of the second quarter, the
unemployment rate was 6.54 percent compared to 7.55 percent one year earlier.
Regionwide, employment and labor force participation peaked in July of 2008—seven months
after the start of the Great Recession—at 1,128,600 and 1,189,600, respectively. Employment
reached a post-recession low in February of 2012 at 1,024,400 while the labor force bottomed out a
year later (March of 2013) at 1,109,100. From peak to trough, employment contracted 9.23 percent
(104,200) and labor force participation fell 6.77 percent (80,500). As of August 2013, the region has
recaptured 45.71 percent (36,800) of the labor force lost to the recession and 44.53 percent
(46,400) of the employment. Overall, employment and labor force growth remain weak and whereas
month-to-month improvements are evident, sustained employment and labor force growth remain a
significant regional as well as statewide challenge.
The regional job count is beginning to recover, with improvements in the private sector
compensating for the continuing contraction in the public sector. Year over year, the region added
6,000 jobs; the job count in the private sector increased (9,333) from 742,600 to 751,633 while
employment in the public sector fell (-3,000) from 162, 733 to 159,700. As of the second quarter
2013, one out of every 5.71 jobs in the Hudson Valley was in the public sector compared to one out
of every 5.56 one year earlier.
Year over year, trade, transportation and utilities added the most jobs at 4,133 followed by
leisure and hospitality (2,867), education and health (2,600), professional and business services
(1,867) and other services (967). The job count continued to decline in the information sector (1,467), manufacturing (-800) and natural resources, mining and construction and financial activities
at -567 each. Within the Hudson Valley, the total job count advanced (2,900) in the RocklandWestchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, (2,433) in the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA
(Dutchess and Orange counties), and (833) in the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County). The total job
count in Sullivan County fell (-167).
Since the inter-recession peak, private sector job growth has been sporadic and uneven. On the
one hand, the job count in education and health services has shown consistent growth—up 13,267,
from 177,333 jobs in the second quarter of 2008 to 190,600 as of the second quarter of 2013. On the
other hand, the job count in both the manufacturing sector and the information sector continues to
contract: relative to the peak, witnessed in the second quarter of 2008, the job count in the
manufacturing and information sectors is down 9,733 (17.25 percent) and 4,066 (18.80 percent),
respectively. In contrast, leisure and hospitality, other services, professional and business services
and trade, transportation and utilities have created
Regionwide, the job count in the
more jobs since the trough (47,967) than were lost to
private sector reached an interthe recession (34,667). Collectively these four sectors
recession
peak in the second quarter
accounted for 58.56 percent of all jobs lost as a result of
of 2008 at 756,433 and a postthe recession and as of the second quarter, 88.17
recession low in the first quarter of
percent of all jobs recovered. Job growth in the
2010 at 697,233. From peak to
remaining sectors—natural, resources, mining and
trough, the private sector job count
construction and financial activities—remains below its
fell 59,200 (7.83 percent).
inter-recession peak.
Since the onset of the Great Recession in
December of 2007, the number of food stamp recipients in the Hudson Valley has witnessed
significant growth (3.33 percent per quarter), rising from one out of every 21.6 persons at the start of
the recession to one out of every 9.7 persons in the current period. Over the period, monthly perperson benefits also increased, rising 33.89 percent while regional food costs rose 17.24 percent.
Statewide, the number of food stamp recipients has grown 2.71 percent per quarter, rising from one
out of every 10.5 persons to one out of every 6.2 persons in the current quarter. Monthly per-person
benefits increased 27.73 percent.
Year over year, food stamp dependency advanced 5.58 percent (12,538) from 224,854 in the
second quarter of 2012 to 237,392 in the current quarter. Over the period, food stamp expenditures
advanced 5.23 percent ($1.65 million per month) while the average monthly benefit remained
relatively constant at $140.00 per person per month. As was the case in previous quarters, Sullivan
County was the most dependent on food stamp benefits at one out of every 5.6 persons, followed by
Rockland, Orange and Ulster counties at one out of every 6.9 per persons, one out of every 7.9 per
persons and one out of every 8.4 persons, respectively. In New York State, one out of every 6.2
persons received food stamp benefits in the second quarter of 2013.
Year over year, the number of Temporary Assistance (TA) recipients posted a slight decrease
(0.43 percent) while TA expenditures advanced 5.92 percent. Sullivan County continues to be the
most dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 36.0 persons, followed by Ulster and
Orange counties at one out of every 44.2 persons and one out of every 52.6 persons, respectively.
Regionwide, one out of every 69 residents received TA benefits.
Housing prices have begun to recover, with every county in the region reporting secondquarter median selling prices above their post-recession lows (trough).Westchester County posted
the highest relative increase at 28.59 percent ($144,500) above the trough followed by Ulster
County at 26.77 percent ($46,250) above the trough and Putnam County at 11.35 percent
($31,500) above the trough. In all cases, the median selling price remains well below the peak
evaluations witnessed during the housing boom.
The demand for both single- and multifamily construction permits improved, posting a yearover-year increase of 30.49 percent and 45.8 percent, respectively. Total construction costs
advanced $90.73 million from $158.06 million in the first six months of 2012 to $248.79 million in
the first six months of the current year.
Lastly, regional sales tax collection continues to improve rising 5.14 percent from $306.88
million in the second quarter of 2012 to $322.65 million in the second quarter of 2013.
Hudson Valley Labor Force
Labor Force
Employment
Year over year, labor force participation in the Hudson Valley Region fell 0.41 percent
(-4,566) from
Employment and Labor Force Participation
1,127,333
Data: New York State Department of Labor
participants in the
1200000
1140000
second quarter of
2012 to 1,122,767 in
1180000
1120000
the second quarter
1160000
1100000
of 2013. In the
1140000
1080000
Lower Hudson
1120000
1060000
Valley—Putnam,
Rockland and
1100000
1040000
Westchester
1080000
1020000
counties—labor
1060000
1000000
force participation
fell 0.36 percent (2,500) from 686,767
to 684,267 while in the Upper Hudson Valley—Dutchess, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster counties—
labor force participation fell 0.49 percent (-2,166) from 440,633 to 438,467. Over the same period,
labor force participation in New York State declined 0.13 percent (-12,767) from 9,586,767 to
9,574,000, while
Employment and Labor Force Participation
participation in the
Data: New York State Department of Labor
30,000
national (civilian)
20,000
labor force posted a
10,000
moderate year0
over-year increase
-10,000
of 0.46% (710,000),
Year-Over-Year
-20,000
rising from 154.87
Change in
-30,000
Employment
million to 155.58
Year-Over-Year
-40,000
million.
Change in the
Labor Force
-50,000
Regional
employment
-60,000
showed little
improvement,
increasing less than
seven tenths of one percent (7,133) from 1,042,167 jobs in the second quarter of 2012 to 1,049,300
in the current quarter. Employment advanced in the Lower Hudson Valley (4,000) from 638,633 to
642,633 while in the Upper Hudson Valley employment increased (3,134) from 403,533 to 406,667.
Over the same 12-month period, employment in New York State advanced (82,434), from 8,781,333
in the second quarter of 2012 to 8,863,767 in the second quarter of 2013. Nationwide, employment
rose 1.14 percent (1.62 million) from 142.23 million to 143.85 million.
2013-07
2013-04
2013-01
2012-10
2012-07
2012-04
2012-01
2011-10
2011-07
2011-04
2011-01
2010-10
2010-07
2010-04
2010-01
2009-10
2009-07
2009-04
2009-01
2008-10
2008-07
2013-07
2013-04
2013-01
2012-10
2012-07
2012-04
2012-01
2011-10
2011-07
2011-04
2011-01
2010-10
2010-07
2010-04
2010-01
2009-10
2009-07
2009-04
2009-01
2008-10
2008-07
Page 1 of 14
Because employment increased at a faster rate than the labor force, the regional
unemployment rate posted a year-over-year decrease of 1.01 percentage points, from 7.55 percent
in the second quarter of 2012 to 6.54 percent in the second quarter of 2013. The unemployment rate
in the Lower Hudson Valley decreased 1.17 percentage points, from 8.42 percent to 7.25 percent,
while in the Upper Hudson Valley the unemployment rate decreased 0.93 percentage points, from
7.01 percent to 6.08 percent. Statewide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.05 percent to 7.21
percent; nationwide, the unemployment rate fell from 8.17 percent to 7.57 percent
Regionwide, employment and labor force participation peaked in July of 2008—seven months
after the start of the Great Recession—at 1,128,600 and 1,189,600, respectively. Employment
reached a post-recession low in February of 2012 at 1,024,400 while the labor force bottomed out a
year later (March of 2013) at 1,109,100. From peak to trough, employment contracted 9.23 percent
(104,200) and labor force participation fell 6.77 percent (80,500). As of August 2013, the region has
recaptured 45.71 percent (36,800) of the labor force lost to the recession and 44.53 percent
(46,400) of the employment. Within the region, the Lower Hudson Valley has recaptured 53.93
percent (28,100) of its labor force and 58.62 percent (34,000) of all jobs lost, while the Upper
Hudson Valley has recaptured 31.12 percent (8,900) and 33.59 percent (13,200), respectively.
Overall, employment and labor force growth remain weak and whereas month-to-month
improvements are evident, sustained employment and labor force growth remain a significant
regional as well as statewide challenge.
Recession
Labor
Force Loss
Hudson Valley
Recession
Employ.
Loss
Labor
Force
Recovered
Employ.
Recovered
Labor
Force
Recapture
Rate
Employ.
Recapture Rate
80,500
104,200
36,800
46,400
45.71%
44.53%
Lower Hudson Valley
52,100
58,000
28,100
34,000
53.93%
58.62%
Upper Hudson Valley
28,600
39,300
8,900
13,200
31.12%
33.59%
6,400
9,800
2,300
4,000
35.94%
40.82%
12,500
16,300
2,900
4,100
23.20%
25.15%
Dutchess County
Orange County
Putnam County
4,600
5,600
2,200
2,700
47.83%
48.21%
10,000
12,300
10,400
11,200
104.00%
91.06%
Sullivan County
5,100
6,100
3,200
3,700
62.75%
60.66%
Ulster County
5,600
8,900
1,000
2,400
17.86%
26.97%
41,300
51,200
19,200
23,500
46.49%
45.90%
35,900
50,900
19,500
28,000
54.32%
55.01%
88,100
123,500
74,200
93,600
84.22%
75.79%
352,500
620,100
283,700
368,200
80.48%
59.38%
Rockland County
Westchester County
Capital Region
Long Island Region
New York State
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor; author calculations
Note: Not all counties peaked and troughed at the same time; as a result, a sum of the individual counties will not equal
the regional total.
Page 2 of 14
Nonfarm Employment by Place of Work1
Quarter over Quarter, the Private Sector Added 6,000 Jobs
while Public Sector Employment Continued to Contract (-3,033).
Over the 12-month period ending in the second quarter of 2013, the regional job count
increased less than seven tenths of one percent (6,000), from 905,333 in the second quarter of 2012
to 911,333 in the second quarter of 2013.Year over year, the job count in the private sector increased
1.22 percent (9,033) from 742,600 to 751,633 while the job count in the public sector continued to
decline, falling 1.86
Change in Hudson Valley Job Count: 2012.2-2013.2
percent
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor
(-3,033), from
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
-567
162,733 to 159,700.
The majority of the
Manufacturing
-800
loss occurred in the
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
4,133
local government
Information
-1,467
sector at 1,933 jobs. As
Financial Activities
-567
of the second quarter
Professional and Business Services
1,867
2013, one out of every
Education and Health Services
2,600
5.71 jobs in the
Hudson Valley was in
Leisure and Hospitality
2,867
the public sector
Other Services
967
compared to one out
Government
-3,033
of every 5.56 one year
Federal Government
-933
earlier.
State Government
-167
Year over year,
Local Government
trade, transportation
-1,933
and utilities added the
-967
Local Government Education
most jobs at 4,133
Total Nonfarm
6,000
followed by leisure
9,033
Total Private
and hospitality
(2,867), education and
health (2,600), professional and business services (1,867) and other services (967). The job count
continued to decline in the information sector (-1,467), manufacturing (-800) and natural resources,
mining and construction and financial activities at -567 each.
Within the Hudson Valley, the total job count advanced (2,900) in the Rockland-WestchesterPutnam, NY, MSA, (2,433) the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange
counties) and (833) the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County). The total job count in Sullivan County fell
(-167).
1
Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the military. Place
of Work Series. The employment figures in this section are three-month averages.
Page 3 of 14
In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA, the overall job count advanced (2,900) from
568,067 in the second quarter of 2012 to 570,967 in the second quarter of 2013. For the period, the
private sector job count advanced 4,100 from 476,000 to 480,100, while the job count in the public
sector declined 1,200 from 92,067 to 90,867. Year over year, trade, transportation and utilities added
the most jobs at 2,567 followed by professional and business services and educational and health at
1,600 each, other services at 667 and leisure and hospitality at 267. Financial activities lost 300 jobs
over the year while the job count continued to decline in information (-1,200), manufacturing (-700)
and natural resources, mining and construction (-400).
In the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY, MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties), the
overall job count advanced (2,433) from 250,867 in the second quarter of 2012 to 253,300 in the
second quarter of 2013. For the period, the private sector job count advanced (3,834) to 205,367 in
the second quarter of 2013 from 201,533 in the second quarter of 2012 while the job count in the
public sector continued to decline, falling 1,400 from 49,333 to 47,933. Year over year, leisure and
hospitality added the most jobs (1,900), followed by trade, transportation and utilities (1,133),
education and health services (900), professional and business services (400), manufacturing (133)
and other services (100). The job count declined in financial activities (-333), natural resources,
mining and construction (-233) and information (-167).
In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), the overall job count increased 833, from 60,667 in
the second quarter of 2012 to 61,500 in the second quarter of 2013. For the period, the private
sector job count advanced 1,267 while the public sector shed an additional 433. Year over year, the
leisure and hospitality sector added the most jobs at 867 followed by trade, transportation and
utilities at 533, education and health services at 133 and other services at 33. The job count fell in
manufacturing and information at -100 each, and also fell in natural resources, mining and
construction (-67) and professional and business services (-33). The job count advanced 33 in the
state government sector, fell -467 in the local government sector and was unchanged in the federal
government sector. In Sullivan County the overall job count declined (-167). Private sector
employment fell -167; employment in the public sector
was unchanged.
Since the inter-recession peak, private sector job
growth has been sporadic and uneven. On the one hand,
Regionwide, the job count in
the job count in education and health services has shown
the private sector reached an
consistent growth—up 13,267, from 177,333 jobs in the
inter-recession peak in the
second quarter of 2008 at
second quarter of 2008 to 190,600 as of the second
756,433 and a post-recession
quarter of 2013. On the other hand, the job count in both
low in the first quarter of 2010
the manufacturing sector and the information sector
at 697,233. From peak to
continues to contract: relative to the peak witnessed in
trough the private sector job
the second quarter of 2008, the job count in the
count fell 59,200 (7.83
manufacturing and information sectors is down 9,733
percent).
(17.25 percent) and 4,066 (18.80 percent), respectively.
In contrast, leisure and hospitality, other services,
professional and business services and trade,
transportation and utilities have created more jobs since the trough (47,967) than were lost to the
recession (34,667). Collectively these four sectors accounted for 58.56 percent of all jobs lost as a
Page 4 of 14
result of the recession and as of the second quarter, 88.17 percent of all jobs recovered. Job growth in
the remaining sectors—natural, resources, mining and construction and financial activities—remains
well below its inter-recession peak.
Hudson Valley Region:
Change in the Private Sector Job Count
Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations
Recession
Jobs Lost
Natural Resources, Mining and Construction
Recovery
Jobs
Gained
Share
Recovered
Share of
all Jobs
Lost
Share of
all Jobs
Recovered
(16,500)
3,867
23.43%
27.87%
7.11%
(7,133)
(2,600)
-36.45%
12.05%
-4.78%
(12,833)
13,733
107.01%
21.68%
25.25%
Information
(2,333)
(1,733)
-74.27%
3.94%
-3.19%
Financial Activities
(5,067)
133
2.63%
8.56%
0.24%
(10,767)
12,167
113.00%
18.19%
22.37%
6,500
6,767
MN**
-10.98%
12.44%
Leisure and Hospitality
(9,033)
18,000
199.26%
15.26%
33.09%
Other Services
(2,033)
4,067
200.00%
3.43%
7.48%
(59,200)
54,400
91.89%
100.00%
100.00%
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services *
Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful
In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA (Lower Hudson Valley region) the private
sector job count peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 485,767 and reached a post-recession low in
the first quarter of 2010 at 445,500. As of the second quarter of 2013, 85.93 percent (34,600) of the
Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY, MSA:
Change in the Private Sector Job Count
Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations
Recession
Jobs Lost
Natural Resources, Mining and
Construction
Recovery
Jobs
Gained
Share
Recovered
Share of
all Jobs
Lost
Share of all
Jobs
Recovered
(11,867)
3,167
26.69%
29.47%
9.15%
Manufacturing
(3,300)
(2,467)
-74.75%
8.20%
-7.13%
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
(8,467)
8,133
96.06%
21.03%
23.51%
Information
(1,700)
(1,333)
-78.43%
4.22%
-3.85%
Financial Activities
(4,033)
733
18.18%
10.02%
2.12%
Professional and Business Services
(8,933)
9,533
106.72%
22.19%
27.55%
3,633
3,933
NM**
-9.02%
11.37%
Leisure and Hospitality
(4,433)
10,333
233.08%
11.01%
29.87%
Other Services
(1,167)
2,567
220.00%
2.90%
7.42%
(40,267)
34,600
85.93%
100.00%
100.00%
Education and Health Services *
Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful
Page 5 of 14
40,267 jobs lost to the recession have been recaptured: the second highest recovery rate in the
region.
Overall, leisure and hospitality, other services, and professional and business services have
created more jobs since the trough than were lost to the recession. The largest recapture rate
occurred in leisure and hospitality at 233.08 percent (10,333 jobs recovered compared to 4,433 jobs
lost), followed by other services at 220.00 percent (2,567 jobs recovered compared to 1,167 jobs
lost) and professional and business services at 106.72 percent (9,533 jobs recovered compared to
8,933 jobs lost). In contrast, the job count in trade, transportation and utilities, natural resources,
mining and construction and financial activities remains below the inter-recession peak at a
recapture rate of 96.06 percent, 26.69 percent and 18.18 percent, respectively. The job count in both
manufacturing and information continues to decline. As of the second quarter, the job count in
manufacturing was down 5,767 jobs relative to peak and 2,467 jobs relative to the trough while in the
information sector, the job count was down 3,033 relative to peak and 1,333 relative to the trough. As
is the case throughout the region, the job count in education and health services continues to expand,
rising from 112,933 in the second quarter of 2008 to 120,500 in the current quarter, an overall gain
of 7,567 jobs.
In the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties), the private
sector job count peaked in the third quarter of 2008 at 202,833 and reached a post-recession trough
in the first quarter of 2010 at 189,800. As of the second quarter of 2013, the MSA has recaptured
119.44 percent (15,567) of the (13,033) jobs lost to the recession: the highest recovery rate in the
region.
Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown MSA:
Change in the Private Sector Job Count
Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations
Recession
Job Loss
Natural Resources, Mining
and Construction
Recovery
Job Gain
Share
Recovered
Share of all
Jobs Lost
Share of all Jobs
Recovered
(3,633)
567
15.60%
27.88%
3.64%
(3,067)
133
4.35%
23.53%
0.86%
(3,067)
4,967
161.96%
23.53%
31.91%
Information
(567)
-400
-70.59%
4.35%
-2.57%
Financial Activities
Professional and Business
Services
Education and Health
Services *
(700)
-300
-42.86%
5.37%
-1.93%
(1,000)
2,167
216.67%
7.67%
13.92%
3,300
2,200
NM**
-25.32%
14.13%
Leisure and Hospitality
(3,733)
5,200
139.29%
28.64%
33.40%
(567)
1,033
182.35%
4.35%
6.64%
(13,033)
15,567
119.44%
100.00%
100.00%
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and
Utilities
Other Services
Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful
Page 6 of 14
Overall, professional and business services, other services, trade, transportation and utilities
and leisure and hospitality have created more jobs (13,367) since the trough than were lost to the
recession (8,367). Natural resources and mining has recaptured 15.60 percent (567 jobs) of the
3,633 jobs lost while manufacturing has recaptured 4.35 percent (133 jobs) of the 3,067 jobs lost to
the recession. The job count in both information and financial activities continues to contract, falling
below the inter-recession trough. As is the case throughout the region, the job count in education and
health services continues to expand, rising from 47,367 in the second quarter of 2008 to 52,867 in the
current quarter.
In the Kingston, NY, MSA (Ulster County), the private sector job count peaked in the second
quarter of 2008 at 48,033 and reached a post-recession trough in the first quarter of 2011 at 43,867.
As of the second quarter of 2013, 68.80 percent (2,867) of the 4,167 private sector jobs lost to the
recession have been recovered: the lowest recovery rate in the region. Leisure and hospitality is the
only sector that has created more jobs since the trough (1,767) than were lost to the recession
(1,167). The job count in professional and business services, natural resources, mining and
construction and trade, transportation and utilities remains below the inter-recession peak at 35.29
percent (200 jobs recovered compared to 567 jobs lost), 37.04 percent (333 jobs recovered
compared to 900 jobs lost) and 90.00 percent ( 900 jobs recovered compared to 1,000 jobs lost),
respectively. As is the case throughout the region, the job count in both manufacturing and financial
services continues to contract while in education and health the job count was 51.43 percent above
the trough and 8.18 percent above the inter-recession peak.
Kingston NY, MSA (Ulster County):
Change in the Private Sector Job Count
Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations
Recession
Job Loss
Natural Resources, Mining
and Construction
Recovery
Job Gain
Share
Recovered
Share of all
Jobs Lost
Share of all Jobs
Recovered
(900)
333
37.04%
8.00%
11.63%
(400)
(467)
-116.67%
-11.20%
-16.28%
(1,000)
900
90.00%
21.60%
31.39%
Information
(167)
167
100.00%
4.00%
5.81%
Financial Activities
Professional and Business
Services
Education and Health
Services*
(367)
(133)
-36.36%
-3.20%
-4.65%
(567)
200
35.29%
4.80%
6.98%
400
67
NM**
1.60%
2.33%
(1,167)
1,767
151.43%
42.40%
61.62%
0
33
NM
0.80%
1.16%
(4,167)
2,867
68.80%
68.80%
100.00%
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and
Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Total Private
* No cyclical job loss ** Not Meaningful
Page 7 of 14
In Sullivan County, the private sector job count peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at
20,033 and reached a post-recession trough in the first quarter of 2010 at 18,000. As of the second
quarter of 2013, 70.50 percent (1,433) of the 2,033 private sector jobs lost to the recession have
been recovered: the second lowest recovery rate in the region.
Sullivan County
Change in the Private Sector Job Count
Since the Recession Low
Data Source: New York State Department of Labor: CES Series, Author calculations
Recession
Job Loss
Natural Resources, Mining
and Construction
Recovery
Job Gain
Share
Recovered
Share of all
Jobs Lost
Share of all Jobs
Recovered
(333)
0
0
16.40%
0.00%
(100)
0
0
4.92%
0.00%
(367)
0
0
18.04%
0.00%
0
0
0
0.00%
0.00%
Financial Activities
Professional and Business
Services
Education and Health
Services
(267)
33
1.64%
13.13%
2.33%
(300)
200
9.84%
14.76%
13.96%
300
333
16.40%
-14.76%
23.26%
Leisure and Hospitality
(800)
567
27.87%
39.35%
39.54%
Other Services
(167)
300
14.76%
8.21%
20.94%
(2,033)
1,433
70.50%
100.00%
100.02%
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and
Utilities
Information
Total Private
Page 8 of 14
Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits
(Social Assistance)
Since the onset of the Great Recession in December of 2007, the number of food stamp
recipients has grown on average 3.33 percent per quarter compared to 2.54 percent per
quarter in New York State and 2.71 percent per quarter nationwide.
Quarter-over-Quarter Change
Number of Monthly Recipients
The number of Hudson Valley residents who are dependent on food stamp benefits continues
to advance, rising 1.72 percent (4,018) from 233,374 in the first quarter of 2013 to 237,392 in the
second quarter compared to a 0.59 percent (18,599) increase statewide and a 1.04 percent (2,313)
increase over the same period last year. Year over year, food stamp dependency advanced 5.58
percent
Change in the Average Number of Monthly
Food Stamp Recipients: Quarterly Data
(12,538),
250,000
12,000
Data Source: OTDA NY
increasing from
10,000
one out of every
200,000
10.3 residents in
8,000
the second
150,000
6,000
quarter of 2012
to one out of
4,000
100,000
every 9.7 in the
2,000
second quarter
50,000
0
of 2013.
Statewide, food
0
-2,000
stamp
dependency
Number of Monthly Recipients
Quarter-over-Quarter Change
posted a yearover-year advance of 3.35 percent (103,175), from one out of every 6.35 residents to one out of every
6.15 residents.
Overall, every county in the region recorded a quarter-over-quarter increase in the number of
Food Stamp Recipients: Data Source OTDA NY
food stamp recipients with
Change 2013.2 over 2013.1 Change 2013.2 over 2012.2
Orange County experiencing the
378 1.54%
1,049
4.40%
Dutchess
largest- level increase at 1,606
1,606 3.52%
2,354
5.24%
Orange
followed by Westchester (785),
118 4.54%
328
13.72%
Putnam
777 1.71%
2,864
6.61%
Rockland (777), Dutchess (378)
Rockland
117
0.86%
1,123
8.93%
Sullivan
and Ulster (237). Sullivan and
237 1.11%
810
3.89%
Ulster
Putnam counties posted the
785 0.98%
4,010
5.21%
Westchester
smallest increases at 117 and
4,018 1.72%
12,538
5.58%
Hudson Valley
118, respectively. Putnam
7,058 0.38%
49,383
2.71%
New York City
18,599 0.59%
103,175
3.35%
New York State
County witnessed the largest
percentage change at 4.54 percent, followed by Orange County at 3.52 percent. Over the three-month
period, food stamp expenditures increased 1.34 percent, from $32.83 million per month in the first
quarter to $33.27 per month in the second quarter. Year over year, food stamp expenditures
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Page 9 of 14
advanced 5.23 percent ($1.65 million per month). The average
monthly benefit remained relatively constant at $140.00 per
person per month for the first and second quarters of 2013.
As of the second quarter of
As was the case in the previous quarter, Sullivan County
2013, one out of 9.7 persons
was the most dependent on food stamp benefits at one out of
in the Hudson Valley
every 5.6 persons, followed by Rockland, Orange and Ulster
received food stamp
counties at one out of every 6.9 per persons, one out of every 7.9
benefits, one out of every 69
per persons and one out of every 8.4 persons, respectively.
received temporary
Putnam County was the least dependent at one out of every 36.6
assistance benefits .
persons, followed by Dutchess County at one out of every 12.0
persons and Westchester County at one out of every 11.9
persons. In New York State, one out of every 6.2 persons
received food stamp benefits in the second quarter of 2013.
Quarter over quarter, the number of Hudson Valley residents who received monthly
Temporary Assistance (TA) benefits—which includes Family Assistance (FA)2 and Safety Net
Assistance (SNA)3—was little changed, falling (0.30 percent) from 33,471 in the first quarter of
2013 to 33,370 in the second quarter. Year over year, the number of TA recipients posted a similar
decline, falling .43 percent.
Temporary Assistance Recipients: Data Source OTDA NY
Between the first and
Change 2013.2 over 2013.1 Change 2013.2 over 2012.2
second quarters the number
-109
-3.88%
-281
-9.46%
Dutchess
of monthly TA recipients
85
1.21%
-180
-2.46%
Orange
increased in four of the
13
7.68%
34
23.20%
Putnam
seven counties. Recipients
-60
-1.76%
86
2.63%
Rockland
increased in Westchester
-149
-6.52%
-237
-10.02%
Sullivan
(101), Orange (85), Ulster
18
0.43%
439
11.94%
Ulster
(18) and Putnam (13) and
101
0.74%
-6
-0.04%
Westchester
fell in Sullivan (-149),
-0.30%
-145
-0.43%
Hudson Valley
-101
Dutchess (-109) and
-1,705
-0.48%
7,980
2.29%
New York City
Rockland (-60). Over the
360
0.06%
14,955
2.62%
New York State
same three-month period
total TA expenditures rose 4.42 percent from $14.00 million per month to $14.60 million per month.
The average monthly per-person SNA and FA benefits were $488.00 and $392.00,
respectively, up from $478.00 and $366.00 in the first quarter. Within the region, Sullivan County is
the most dependent on monthly TA benefits at one out of every 36.0 persons, followed by Ulster and
Orange counties at one out of every 44.2 persons and one out of every 52.6 persons, respectively.
Putnam County is the least dependent at one out of every 546.3 persons, followed by Dutchess,
Rockland and Westchester counties at one out of every 110.5 persons, one out of every 94.5 persons
and one out of every 70.0 persons, respectively.
Year over year, TA recipients decreased 0.43 percent from 33,515 persons per month in the
second quarter of 2012 to 33,370 persons in the second quarter of 2013. Over the same one-year
As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must
include (care for) a minor child.
3 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years.
2
Page 10 of 14
period, the monthly expenditure for TA increased 5.92 percent from $13.79 million per month to
$14.61 million per month.
Home Sales, Single and Multifamily
Building Permits
Year over year, the median selling price of a single-family home advanced in every county in
the region, with the exception of Dutchess County which witnessed a year-over-year decline of 3.67
percent. Ulster County posted the highest year-over-year increase at 8.42 percent followed by
Rockland and Westchester counties at 5.87 percent and 5.01 percent, respectively.
2009Q2
2010Q2
2011Q2
2012Q2
2013Q2
% Change
2012.2 to
2013.2
Dutchess
Total Closed Sales
390
484
335
377
439
16.45%
Average Selling Price
297,905
301,513
307,832
298,492
290,520
-2.67%
Median Selling Price
Orange
256,500
260,000
251,000
245,000
236,000
-3.67%
433
578
396
423
535
26.48%
Average Selling Price in Quarter
283,996
264,340
256,042
258,066
258,470
0.16%
Median Selling Price in Quarter
Putnam
269,900
249,950
241,250
235,000
240,000
2.13%
131
184
125
160
181
13.13%
Average Selling Price in Quarter
346,637
338,742
404,976
357,919
342,252
-4.38%
Median Selling Price in Quarter
Rockland
325,000
306,750
320,000
299,500
309,000
3.17%
235
387
262
294
318
8.16%
Average Selling Price in Quarter
441,909
446,273
446,653
429,752
406,711
-5.36%
Median Selling Price in Quarter
Sullivan
415,000
415,000
385,000
375,000
397,000
5.87%
Total Closed Sales in Quarter
Total Closed Sales in Quarter
Total Closed Sales in Quarter
Total Closed Sales in Quarter
131
131
129
121
142
17.36%
Average Selling Price in Quarter
157854
144,121
171,033
133,978
150,224
12.13%
Median Selling Price in Quarter
Ulster
150000
135,000
128,000
117,000
119,000
1.71%
218
319
202
275
286
4.00%
Average Selling Price in Quarter
239,688
231,402
263,905
227,006
266,757
17.51%
Median Selling Price
Westchester
215,000
210,000
190,000
202,000
219,000
8.42%
705
1,200
988
1,156
1,433
23.96%
Average Selling Price in Quarter
756,524
814,922
855,685
851,498
857,346
0.69%
Median Selling Price in Quarter
565,000
605,500
621,250
619,000
650,000
5.01%
Total Closed Sales
Total Closed Sales in Quarter
Page 11 of 14
Year over year, the median selling price of a single-family home advanced in every county in
the region, with the exception of Dutchess County which witnessed a year-over-year decline of 3.67
percent. Ulster County posted the highest year-over-year increase at 8.42 percent followed by
Rockland and Westchester counties at 5.87 percent and 5.01 percent, respectively. Median home
prices advanced 3.17 percent in Putnam County, 2.13 percent in Orange County and 1.71 percent in
Sullivan County. Sales volume rose across the region with Orange and Westchester counties posting
the highest year-over-year increases at 26.48 percent and 23.96 percent, respectively.
Regionwide, second-quarter median selling prices exceeded their post-recession lows
(trough). Westchester County reported the highest relative price increase at 28.59 percent
($144,500) above the trough followed by Ulster County at 26.77 percent ($46,250) above the
trough and Putnam County at 11.35 percent ($31,500) above the trough. In all cases, the median
selling price remains well below the peak evaluations witnessed during the housing boom.
Median Housing Values Peak/Trough/2013.2
Numbers in 1000’s
Trough
Median
Price
Dollar
Change
Peak and
Trough
Percent
Change
Peak
and
Trough
Median
Price
2013.2
Dollar
Change
2013.2
and Peak
Percent
Change
2013.2
and
Peak
Dollar
Change
2013.2
and
Trough
Percent
Change
2013.2
and
Peak
2011.4
$230.00
($122.00)
-34.66%
$236.00
($116.00)
-32.95%
$6.00
2.61%
$330.00
2012.4
$234.00
($96.00)
-29.09%
$240.00
($90.00)
-27.27%
$6.00
2.56%
2006.2
$437.14
2012.1
$277.50
($159.64)
-36.52%
$309.00
($128.14)
-29.31%
$31.50
11.35%
Rockland
2007.3
$517.00
2011.4
$370.00
($147.00)
-28.43%
$397.00
($120.00)
-23.21%
$27.00
7.30%
Sullivan
2007.2
$202.50
2012.1
$110.00
($92.50)
-45.68%
$119.00
($83.50)
-41.23%
$9.00
8.18%
Ulster
2007.3
$265.00
2012.1
$172.75
($92.25)
-34.81%
$219.00
($46.00)
-17.36%
$46.25
26.77%
Westchester
2007.3
$729.00
2012.1
$505.50
($223.50)
-30.66%
$650.00
($79.00)
-10.84%
$144.50
28.59%
County
Year
Quarter
Peak
Price
Peak
Median
Price
Year
Quarter
Trough
Price
Dutchess
2006.3
$352.00
Orange
2007.3
Putnam
Year over year, the demand for single-family construction permits rose 30.49 percent, from
423 construction permits with an average cost of $271,283 per permit during the second quarter of
Quarter over Quarter, Single-Family Housing Permits:
U.S. Census Bureau: *Preliminary Numbers
January-June 2013*
Area
Permits
Total
Construction
Costs
January-June 2012
Average Construction
Cost per Permit
Permits
Total
Construction
Costs
Average Construction
Cost per Permit
46
$13,027,948
$283,216
51
$15,621,040
$306,295
Orange
167
$33,141,169
$198,450
142
$27,413,732
$193,054
Putnam
29
$8,522,041
$293,863
20
$5,396,885
$269,844
Rockland
41
$13,534,226
$330,103
29
$10,171,266
$350,733
Sullivan
61
$10,304,726
$168,930
49
$9,094,883
$185,610
Ulster
34
$8,727,187
$256,682
42
$6,952,333
$165,532
Westchester
106
$62,478,014
$589,415
90
$40,102,399
$445,582
Hudson Valley
484
$149,735,311
$309,370
423
$114,752,538
$271,283
Dutchess
2012 to 484 construction permits with an average cost of $309,370 per permit during the second
Page 12 of 14
quarter of the current year. Total construction costs for single-family homes advanced $34.99 million,
from $114.75 million in 2012 to $149.74 million in 2013.
For the period, Orange County issued the largest number of single-family permits at 167,
followed by Westchester and Sullivan counties at 106 and 61, respectively. Putnam County issued
the least at 29.
Year over year, the number of multifamily permits increased from 48 multifamily buildings
with 377 units in the first six months of 2012 to 70 multifamily buildings with 753 units during the
first six months of 2013. Total budgeted construction cost more than doubled ($55.74 million),
increasing from $43.31 million in 2012 to $99.05 million in 2013. The average cost per unit
increased 14.50 percent ($16,651) from $114,892 per unit in 2012 to $131,544 in 2013.
Multifamily Construction Permits January—June 2013*
Orange County
Kiryas Joel village
Maybrook village
Montgomery village
New Windsor town
Kiryas Joel village
Minisink town
Putnam County
Brewster village
Carmel town
Rockland County
New Square village
Ramapo town
New Square village
Ramapo town
Ramapo town
Spring Valley village
Ulster County
Saugerties village
Westchester County
North Castle town
Yorktown town
Briarcliff Manor village
Mount Vernon
Port Chester village
Yonkers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau: Preliminary Numbers
Buildings Units
Total Construction Cost
Average Cost per Unit
8
3
9
8
2
1
31
108
26
57
123
6
2
322
$12,738,554
$2,674,286
$3,051,327
$12,486,198
$940,800
$200,000
$32,091,165
$117,950
$102,857
$53,532
$101,514
$156,800
$100,000
$99,662
3
2
5
28
7
35
$3,421,857
$2,115,725
$5,537,582
$122,209
$302,246
$158,217
2
11
1
2
1
11
84
3
7
2
$1,600,000
$8,177,148
$600,000
$710,448
$223,102
$145,455
$97,347
$200,000
$101,493
$111,551
3
6
$1,060,000
20
113
$12,370,698
$176,667
$109,475
1
4
$300,000
$75,000
6
2
1
1
1
2
13
147
121
3
2
2
4
279
$24,134,329
$23,000,000
$600,000
$143,574
$200,000
$675,000
$48,752,903
$164,179
$190,083
$200,000
$71,787
$100,000
$168,750
$174,742
$99,052,348
$131,544
Hudson Valley Total
70
753
*Counties not included posted no multifamily permits for January–June 2013
Page 13 of 14
Sales Tax Collection
An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales tax
collection. Year over year, total sales tax collection increased 5.14 percent, from $306.88 million in
the second quarter of 2012 to $322.65 million in the second quarter of 2013. The largest year-overyear dollar increase occurred in Westchester County at $7.47 million (6.58 percent), followed by
Rockland and Orange counties at $5.05 million (12.03 percent) and $1.18 million (1.84 percent),
respectively. Sales tax collection also increased in Ulster County at $892,321 (3.54 percent),
Dutchess County at $794,038 (1.95 percent) and Putnam County at $406,725 (3.17 percent). Sales
tax collection declined -0.27 percent ($22,831) in Sullivan County.
Sales Tax Collection: Source New York State Department of Finance
Dollar amounts in $1,000,000
2013.Q2
2012.Q2
2011.Q2
2010.Q2
2009.Q2
2008.Q2
2007.Q2
Dutchess
$414.18
$406.24
$387.44
$394.77
$339.57
$375.00
$396.93
Orange
$654.69
$642.88
$595.36
$564.06
$535.52
$567.24
$555.73
Putnam
$132.44
$128.37
$123.33
$118.56
$113.71
$131.57
$116.68
Rockland
$470.10
$419.63
$423.06
$414.68
$413.79
$399.18
$429.07
$82.96
$83.18
$79.20
$84.88
$89.19
$88.95
$86.91
$261.06
$252.14
$237.20
$242.01
$221.75
$244.21
$222.37
Westchester
$1,211.11
$1,136.37
$1,134.18
$1,129.96
$1,012.54
$1,169.58
$1,176.04
Hudson Valley
$3,226.53
$3,068.82
$2,979.76
$2,948.94
$2,726.05
$2,975.73
$2,983.74
Sullivan
Ulster
$18,000,000
year-over-year dollar change
14.00%
year-over-year percentage change
$16,000,000
12.00%
12.03%
$14,000,000
10.00%
$12,000,000
8.00%
0.19%
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
6.00%
5.14%
$6,000,000
1.95%
$2,000,000
4.00%
3.54%
3.17%
$4,000,000
1.84%
2.00%
-0.27%
0.00%
$$(2,000,000)
Dutchess
Orange
Putnam
Rockland
Sullivan
Page 14 of 14
Ulster
Westchester
Hudson
Valley
-2.00%