Business Understanding the Big Picture A Note on Advertising Advertising on the Internet • If you have user traffic, advertisers will pay • Primary source of revenue for many free to use services – Google – FaceBook How to Make Money on the Internet • Step 1: Generate traffic • Step 2: Take cash from advertisers • Step 3: Profit • Simple enough Twitter: > 300 million active users (over 1 billion accounts) LinkedIn: about 400 million profiles *These numbers don’t add up since interest income and expense are not reported on Google Finance. Full details here: https://investor.twitterinc.com/results.cfm http://investors.linkedin.com/results.cfm Selected Tech Valuations (11/1/2015) Company Market Cap Apple $666.25B Google $497.94B Microsoft $420.48B Facebook $287.31B LinkedIn $31.57B Twitter $19.25B Types of Businesses Types of Businesses • • • • Sole Proprietorship Partnership LLC (Limited-Liability Corporation) Corporation Sole Proprietorship • Just start doing business • The business takes your name – Can file a DBA (Doing Business As) to use a different name • Business income and expenses are filed annually on your personal taxes • You can lose your house! – You are the business – If the business is in trouble, you are in trouble – Your personal assets are fair game for lawsuits and debt collectors Partnership • Similar to a sole proprietorship • Must file a business name and any other state forms • Good idea to have a partnership agreement • Can lose your houses! LLC • The business is its own legal entity – Your house is safe • • • • Owners claim income on their personal taxes Can have single or multiple owners Great for R&D phase ideas Forming an LLC – Choose a name that contains LLC – File the Articles of Organization (Simple form) – Pay fees • Operating Agreement – Defines equity percentages, profit sharing, responsibilities, exit strategy, conflict resolution, etc. – Not required by all states – Highly recommended even if not required Corporations • S-Corporation – – – – Similar to an LLC with shareholders Income is claimed on shareholders personal taxes Limited to 100 shareholders Limited to 1 type of stock (everyone votes) • C-Corporation – More structure and regulations – Easier to have share holders and investors • Can go public – The business is taxed separately • Leads to double taxation • Business income is taxed, then payments to shareholders is taxed as personal income Finance Stock Price • Great realization of supply and demand • Liquid marketplace – For heavily traded (high volume) stocks at least • Stock price – The last price a share of that stock sold for • Market Capitalization – Stock price * Number of shares – This is the valuation of a company – Difficult to value private companies Investing Choices • Stocks – Buy low, sell high • Stock Options – Purchase the option to buy or sell a stock at specific price until a set date – Commonly used as an employee benefit – Only costs the employer if the company is doing well • Bonds – Loan your money to an organization at a fixed interest rate – Banks don’t have to give huge loans – Crowd-sourced loans Choosing an investment • Risk vs. Reward – Riskier investments have higher potential Return On Investment (ROI) • Safest investment is in Treasury bills, notes, and bonds (T-Bills) – – – – – Loan your money to the US government Very low interest rates Unlikely to lose your investment National debt The US government decided that it can get a higher ROI by investing cash into the country that the interest they will have to pay • Maybe that’s optimistic, but I’d take those low interest loans Present Value of Money • The value of money is time sensitive • $100 today ≠ $100 in 1 year • At 3% interest – $100 today = $103 in 1 year (100*1.03) – $97.09 today =$100 in 1 year (100/1.03) • $100,000 in five years? – $100,000/((1+interest)^5) – $86,260 present value @ 3% interest – $78,353 present value@ 5% interest Who Want to be a Millionaire? • Yes, the trivia show • Winning $1M – Receive $250,000 after the show airs (30 days) – 20 annual payments of $37,500 – http://millionairetv.dadt.com/official-rules/ • Present value of the $1M prize – $863,179 @ 2% – $714,964 @ 3% – $562,555 @ 5% • For prizes with a lump sum option – Present value is awarded – Who chooses the interest rate? Return on Investment (ROI) • ROI = (revenue – expenses) / expenses; • Example – Invest $10,000 – Returns $12,000 – ROI = 20% Expected ROI • Estimate the probability and magnitude of success for an investment • Possible ROI – – – – 20% chance of no return 30% chance of $100,000 return 40% chance of $200,000 return 10% chance of $1,000,000 return • Expected ROI = 0.2*0 + 0.3*100,000 + 0.4*200,000 + 0.1*1,000,000 • Expected ROI = $210,000 Bringing It All Together Estimated Project returns Revenue 25% 25% 50% 1 year $100 $500 $2000 2 years $500 $5000 $500 3 years $2000 $1000 $0 Present Value $2276 $1469 $2358 • Present Value of Expected Revenue – .25*2276 + .25*1469 + .5*2358 – $3217 • If the project cost $3000 – ROI = 217/3000 = 7.2% Choosing between projects • Estimate the ROI of all possible projects – Market Analysis (Estimate Revenue) – Timeline (Present Value of Revenue) – Feasibility • Choose the project with the highest ROI – Must also consider your risk tolerance – Be mindful of cash flow • Project cost $1M for a guaranteed $200M return in 40 years may not be feasible in terms of cash flow even though it’s 2740% ROI @ 5% interest • Managers need to choose which projects survive based on analyses like this • VC’s and investors do this across organizations VC’s and Angel Investors • Convince them that you are their highest and safest ROI option • The riskier your startup, the higher the potential payoff has to be • 50% chance you’ll succeed – You need to double their investment for them to break even – Even more once PV is computed • Ultimately up to them how to invest – It’s their money after all Finance Summary • Higher risk – Lower expected return • Longer wait for return – Lower present value of return • Significant number of parameters to estimate </business>