The University of Georgia Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences The Feasibility of Operating an Individual Quick Freeze Vegetable Processing Facility in Tift County, Georgia Kent Wolfe, Christopher Ferland, William Hurst and John McKissick FR-02-13 May 2006 The Feasibility of Operating an Individual Quick Freeze Vegetable Processing Facility in Tift County, Georgia Purpose This study examines the economic feasibility of operating an Individual Quick Freeze (IQF) line in Tift County area. This vegetable processing line will provide producers with a means of adding value to their produce and assist them in capturing a higher percentage of the farm-to-retail price spread. In addition, by chopping and freezing the vegetables, the producers have the opportunity to create a market for their #2 (cull) vegetables. By processing and freezing these vegetables, the farmers can hold their product during periods of over supply and sell products during periods of undersupply and obtain a better price for their product. Producers operating in the fresh market do not have this luxury as they are dealing with perishable products making them “price takers.” The fresh market is also susceptible to periods of excess supply leaving producers with a surplus of fresh produce and depressed prices. The fresh market demands producers grade their products and only supply high quality produce resulting in a supply of #2s or cull vegetables for which there is not a ready-made market. The result is that many producers leave their #2s or culls to rot in the field. The frozen vegetable market may offer an attractive opportunity to generate revenue from both culls and excess #1s. An IQF line could assist producers in addressing this quality problem by allowing them to be highly selective in choosing produce for the fresh market and still maintain a market for cull products. Producers may be able to expand acreage and/or cultivation practices to fully satisfy the fresh market, while also satisfying the frozen market. This study will also examine the relevant economic issues surrounding IQF vegetables including bell peppers, carrots, English peas, lima beans, snap beans, southern peas, sweet corn, yellow squash, and zucchini. The economic analysis compares the projected cost of operating an IQF line with current market prices for various frozen vegetables. Individual Quick Freeze Vegetable Market According to a Food Institute Report (2001), the frozen vegetable market is a $2.9 billion industry with mixed vegetables accounting for one third of the segment ($975 million). The frozen vegetable industry has struggled of late (1999-2000) with negative growth in sales and volume. However, these numbers may not truly reflect the industry, as meal-starter frozen vegetables are included in frozen vegetable data. Meal-starter vegetable products are down while other frozen vegetable sales have grown. Frozen vegetable consumption data compiled by the Economic Research Service, USDA, indicates per capita consumption rose at a rate of 48% between 1970 and 2000. In the last five years, consumption has been flat. However, in 2000, approximately 84.1 pounds of frozen vegetables were consumed per capita. The major vegetables consumed 2 were lima beans, snap beans, broccoli, carrots, sweet corn, green beans, and potatoes. Georgia grows all of these vegetables and has the potential for entering into the frozen market with #2 vegetables. Table 1. Changes in Per Capita Consumption and Georgia Market Potential, Selected Vegetables Frozen Produce Broccoli Sweet Corn Carrot Snap Beans Green Peas Cauliflower Spinach Lima Beans Asparagus Per Capita1 Consumption of Frozen Produce Percent Change (1970-1999) 116% 83% 73% 43% 8% -27% -30% -37% -92% Georgia Market Potential2 (Farm weight-lbs.) 17,596,629.9 86,656,564.7 20,399,888.7 16,449,438.4 17,052,150.2 2,983,292.9 4,203,578.7 3,676,705.5 201,019.8 1 Source: NASS. Data for 1982-83 estimated by ERS. All product-weight data in this table has been converted to a fresh-weight basis using a factor of 1.92. 2 Based on 2000 Georgia Census and USDA per capita Consumption Estimates Table 1 indicates the percent change in per captia vegetable consumption from 1970 to 1999. Due to a surge in fresh produce consumption, The United States Department of Agriculture’s cold storage report indicates a storage decline on most vegetables. There has been a 26% increase in per capita fresh produce consumption since 1973. Vegetables are being packaged and sold at a quicker pace, requiring less long-term storage. One can estimate from this study that either demand was stronger in the past or supplies are lower. Either scenario is positive for starting a quick-freeze operation. With the recent decline in cold storage, the amount stored is significantly higher in the spring with gradual reductions occurring by fall. This appears to emulate the production season of many of the frozen crops. Therefore, enough storage to hold the frozen crops until marketed is included in the project. 3 Table 2. United States Commercially Packed Vegetables in Pounds. Commercially Packed Vegetables, 1000's Pounds Vegetable Butterbeans Black-eyed Peas Baby Lima Beans Miscellaneous Vegetables Corn-on-Cob Carrots Green and Red Peppers 1996 1997 1998 4,577 22,901 85,053 36,715 383,840 397,967 44,858 5,170 25,363 97,598 46,363 464,942 409,044 40,746 7,298 27,684 101,757 42,849 435,271 388,094 42,599 % Change from 96 to 98 59% 21% 20% 17% 13% -2% -5% Table 2 indicates the trend of vegetables with potential for further processing at the facility being investigated. One can see a slight downward trend for carrots and peppers but moderate to strong upward trends for the other vegetables. These numbers represent packaged vegetables throughout the country. There are four primary markets for frozen vegetables: retail, food service, processed foods, and home meal replacement. The retail market generally purchases vegetables from brokers or contracts with independently owned and operated farms. Getting into the retail market takes consistency in quantity and quality. This may be one of the more difficult markets for the Tift County group to enter without the use of a broker. Kroger, Publix, and other large supermarkets demand quality, quantity, and ontime delivery. Buyers such as these cannot operate efficiently if weather, disease, or insects affect delivery of merchandise. An IQF plant relying on production from a relatively small area runs a higher risk of encountering such problems. Being centrally located in Tift, or even the surrounding area, may place such buyers at undo risk. Brokers exist throughout the food chain with numerous contacts to spread these risks among several production area. The food service market (hotels, hospitals, schools, and prisons) purchases large quantities of vegetables from assorted buyers. The Small Farm to School Initiative is currently pushing a project to purchase more of the foods consumed in the schools and jails from small farmers in Georgia. This may be a more feasible opportunity for some of the growers in the Tift County group. A third significant market is the use of vegetables as an ingredient in processed foods. This is especially true of onions, peppers, and other vegetables used in relishes, sauces, and dressings. Numerous brokers have commented on the need for frozen bell peppers. A fourth market for IQF vegetables is in the increasingly popular “Home Meal Replacement” category. As the number of dual income households rises, Americans find less time to prepare traditional home-cooked meals. Takeout meals are on the rise. 4 Increasingly chefs and restauranteurs are preparing complete carry-home meals for consumers. Frozen vegetable supermarket sales have increased steadily over the past six years. A major factor has been the increase in frozen French fries sold to Japan. The food service industry is expected to increase frozen foods used for a number of reasons: labor costs, year-around availability, consistency, reduced prep-time, portion control, high quality, ease of storage, price stability, and low cost. Technological changes have increased frozen food quality to the point that consumers now have a hard time distinguishing products in prepared (microwavable) meals made with frozen produce and products made with fresh produce. Table 3. Supermarket Sales of Selected Frozen Vegetables in the United States, 2000. Volume Vegetable (Millions) 251.4 Mixed 115.9 Corn 107.4 Peas 97.9 Beans 92.7 Broccoli 55.8 Spinach 16.5 Carrots 6.1 Squash/Zucchini 4.9 Onions Source: American Frozen Food Institute Sales (Millions) $ 384.00 $ 145.90 $ 142.80 $ 135.90 $ 126.60 $ 76.20 $ 21.00 $ 7.10 $ 7.10 Estimated Price/Lb. $ 1.53 $ 1.26 $ 1.33 $ 1.39 $ 1.37 $ 1.37 $ 1.27 $ 1.16 $ 1.45 Estimated Processor Price $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 0.76 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.64 0.58 0.72 Table 3 indicates the volume (pounds sold) and price received for selected vegetable crops. Sales were divided by volume to determine the estimated price per pound. To determine the processor price it was assumed that the retailer mark-up on the wholesale price was 20% and the wholesaler mark-up on the farm or processor price was 20%. A discount formula was used to estimate what price the processor or farmer owning the processing equipment would get for frozen products. According to the American Frozen Food Institute (2000), most frozen vegetables have increased in consumption over the past five years. Mixed vegetables have increased dramatically, but encompass a wide array of vegetables. Anything from peas and carrots to Mexicali corn and even certain seasoned potato tots are in the mixed vegetable group. 5 Table 4. Frozen Vegetable Volume From 1994-1998 Vegetable 1994 Corn-on-Cob NA Carrots NA Baby Lima Beans 95,695 Miscellaneous Vegetables 38,575 Green and Red Peppers 42,787 Black-eye Peas 33,427 Butterbeans 7,491 Source: American Frozen Food Institute 1995 414,662 418,816 101,295 41,004 54,155 29,352 7,664 1996 383,840 397,967 85,053 36,715 44,858 22,901 4,577 1997 464,942 409,044 97,598 46,363 40,746 25,363 5,170 1998 435,271 388,094 101,757 42,849 42,599 27,684 7,298 General wholesalers and distributors are not the target market for IQF frozen produce. After contacting wholesalers and distributors operating in Georgia, it was determined that brokers or wholesalers servicing the ingredient or individual markets are more likely to be interested in IQF produce. Additional research into these groups is needed to gain an understanding of the market. One reason for targeting the food service sector rather than the retail market is the reduced expense in marketing. The time and money needed to establish a brand name for frozen vegetables in the retail market is cost prohibitive. The food service or wholesale market will purchase frozen vegetables without brand name recognition. Production and packing of frozen vegetables has grown annually due to improved technology. Assisting this growth is the American desire for ready-made meals and quick meals. These two factors have contributed to marked changes in the vegetable market. According to The Food Institute, demand for canned vegetables has declined while demand for frozen vegetables has increased. Table 5. 2001 Average Frozen Vegetable Trading Prices Frozen Vegetable Bell Peppers Carrots, diced Carrots, sliced Collards, chopped English Peas Lima Beans Snap Beans Southern Peas Sweet Corn, cut Sweet Corn, coblet Yellow Squash Zucchini *F.O.B. West Coast Source: Food Marketing Institute Packaging 12/3-lb bags 12/3-lb bags 12/3-lb bags 12/3-lb bags 12/2.5-lb bags 12/2.5-lb bags 12/2.5-lb bags 12/2.5-lb bags 12/2.5-lb bags 48/1-lb bags 12/3-lb bags 12/3-lb bags $/LB* .45-.53 .36-.40 .39-.43 0.45 0.50 .80-.85 .45-.49 0.66 .44-.49 10.75 0.63 0.63 6 Table 5 is based on information supplied by food ingredient brokers and The Food Market Institute on the various frozen vegetables. Prices would be cheaper when sold in bulk bins, bigger bags, and on the east coast. However, it is interesting to note the vegetables seen as traditional southern vegetables have higher prices per pound than other vegetables. Lima beans, yellow squash, zucchini, southern peas, and collards, were all significantly higher per pound and are easily produced in Georgia. One explanation is that the majority of the frozen vegetable market exists around the west coast of the United States and southern vegetables are typically not grown in that region. Georgia and Tift County Production Agriculture in Georgia is changing and many farmers have begun to grow more vegetables. This has follwed Georgia’s population changes of 26.4% between the 1990 and 2000. The population boom was primarily in urban areas and thus creating a higher demand for vegetables in the metro areas. Table 6 indicates the market potential in Georgia. Table 6. Georgia Frozen Vegetable Market Potential Georgia Frozen1 Market Potential (Farm Weight- lbs.) Conversion units from farm weight pounds to Container units Georgia Frozen Market Potential (Container Units) 2.5 20,466,132.50 1 sacks = 48 pounds 426,377 Sacks 10.6 86,776,401.80 42 lbs= Wbd. Crate (441/2 dozen) 2,066,104 wbd.crates 2.0 16,372,906.00 30 lbs. = Bu. Crate or Hamper 545,763 Bushel Crates 0.4 3,274,581.20 30 lbs. = Bu. Crate or Hamper 109,152 Hampers Spinach 0.5 4,093,226.50 25 lbs. = 1 carton 163,729 cartons Blueberries 0.42 3,438,310.26 Pounds 3,438,310 lbs Strawberries 1.23 10,069,337.19 Pounds 10,069,337 lbs Frozen Produce Carrots Frozen Per Capita Consumption (Farm Weight- lbs.) Sweet Corn Snap Beans Lima Beans 1 Based on the 2000 population estimate of 8,186,453 Georgians The proposed quick freeze operation will be located in Tift County. Tift County and neighboring Irwin and Turner Counties are located in a concentrated vegetable area growing bell peppers, carrots, collards, English peas, lima beans, snap beans, southern peas, sweet corn, yellow squash, and zucchini. An estimate of the acreage was obtained for these crops from the 2001 Farm Gate Value Report from the Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development at The University of Georgia. 7 The following figures indicate the individual location acreage for those vegetables with further processing potential through the IQF line. Bell Pepper Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $750,000 $750,001 - $2,000,000 $2,000,001 - $5,000,000 $5,000,001 - $10,000,000 Blueberry Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $500,000 $500,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 + 8 Collard Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $150,000 $150,000 - $750,000 $750,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 + Eggplant Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $350,000 $350,000 - $900,000 $900,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 - $3,500,000 9 Lima Bean Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $20,000 $20,000 - $130,000 $130,000 - $400,000 $400,000 - $1,200,000 Okra Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $30,000 $30,000 - $75,000 $75,000 - $150,000 $150,000 - $1,000,000 10 Onion Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $500,000 $500,000 - $5,000,000 $5,000,000 - $20,000,000 $20,000,000 + Southern Peas Production, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $30,000 $30,000 - $100,000 $100,000 - $300,000 $300,000 + 11 Yellow Squash Production Value, Georgia 2001 Farm Gate Value $0 $1 - $300,000 $300,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $2,000,000 $2,000,000 + Competition A number of firms exist throughout the state providing quick-freeze processing. The nearest firm to the proposed location is Southern Frozen Foods in Montezuma. This firm has changed hands many times in the past years. Table 7 indicates all the firms listed by SIC currently quick freezing vegetables in Georgia. It is believed some of these firms may not be in direct competition with the proposed facility, such as Coke and Flowers. Both of these firms do not process and freeze vegetables in large quantities, but do process other food materials which are classified under the same SIC code such as bread, biscuits, and beverages. Fresh Frozen Foods also does not freeze their own merchandise but repacks previously frozen vegetables into consumer-ready bags and containers. Table 7. Firms with SIC Coded Relevant to Processing Vegetables in Georgia. Coca-Cola Co. 1 Coca Cola Plz., NW. Atlanta GA 30313-2499 Flanders Provision Co. 1104 Gilmore St. Waycross GA 31501-1307 Flowers Industries Inc. 1919 Flowers Cir. Thomasville GA 31757-1137 Fresh Frozen Food 1814 Washington St. Jefferson GA 30549-2668 Schwan's Sales 5 Dean Dr., NE. Cartersville GA 30121-5170 Southern Frozen Foods 321 Plant St. Montezuma GA 31063-2500 404-676-2121 912-283-5191 229-226-9110 706-367-9851 770-382-2432 478-472-8101 Sea Pac is another frozen vegetable processor in the state who’s SIC is different. This firm creates items such as frozen corn sticks, sweet potatoes fries, breaded vegetables, and ready to cook items. In addition to the above list, many of the poultry facilities with quick freeze units will provide custom freezing of vegetables. For example, Claxton Cold storage is mainly a poultry freezing and cold storage operation, but will custom freeze vegetables during their slow periods. It has been identified that six 12 of these operations exist throughout Georgia, concentrated mainly in North Georgia (see Appendix for list of companies processing vegetables in Georgia). Individual Quick Freeze Cost This section explores the components necessary for operating a quick freeze line in Bainbridge, Georgia. The Baylor Group, (Food Plant Supply Division) provided the quick freeze equipment prices (see Appendix). All prices are for new equipment FOB and do not include sales tax. Sales tax is added to the projected cost in the capital cost section. The equipment was based on a daily maximum rate of 20,000 pounds of vegetable material to be frozen. All components supplied can be used for any vegetable except corn. To freeze corn, a shucker and a segmentor will need to be added. The cost data and other numbers were supplied by various private groups and the following units within the University of Georgia: Department of Food Science, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, and Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics. The Baylor Group provided the maximum volume for different vegetables that can be frozen per hour for the equipment component based upon each vegetable’s heat and water. An oscillating conveyor is used with the quick freeze process to reduce the amount of water remaining on the vegetables after blanching and/or washing. Not all vegetables must be blanched; however, it was recommended, if the equipment was present. The process involved in the IQF line begins by washing, then tip-tailing or peeling the vegetables. Workers will then sort through and remove the badly blemished or rotting vegetables. An automatic elevator then dumps the vegetables onto the conveyor used in the IQF line, which vibrates ensuring the vegetable do not freeze into one lump sum. The end product is dumped into pallet-sized boxes and stored. The average capacity was 2,713 pounds per hour; ranging from the highest rate for peas at 3,200 pounds per hour down to the lowest rate corn coblets (5” cobs) at 2,240 pounds per hour. The best combination of vegetables based on the market and cost structure the Tift group produces is carrots and peppers. 13 Table 8. Required Freeze Time for Various Vegetable Products Product 3/8" Sliced Carrots 5" Corn Coblets Cut Corn Cut Squash Diced Potatoes Sliced Green Peppers Lima Beans Melon Balls Melon Cubes Peas Sliced Squash Snap Beans Source: The Baylor Group, 2001 Nominal U.S. Lbs./Hour 2,656 2,240 2,880 2,800 3,090 2,880 2,760 2,000 2,448 3,200 2,700 2,900 Table 8 indicates the maximum capacity per hour or each vegetable. The Baylor Group provided the capacities based on average heat and water contents per pound of vegetable. To establish the variable cost per pound the capacities were used for individually on an annual basis. Thus, the researcher calculates the viable cost by assuming only peppers would be frozen for an entire year, producing the annualized cost per pound. This was done for each vegetable. Capital Cost The capital cost estimates include all equipment considered necessary to run the IQF operation. These costs include the equipment for preparation, freezing, and short term vegetable storage. To reduce labor costs, an automatic stainless steel hopper and oscillating conveyor were added to traditional quick-freeze equipment. These pieces of equipment will reduce labor needs and improve the products in preparation for freezing by removing any excess water on the produce. Also included are the building, freezer, and working capital costs. These costs came from a number of sources and can be found in the works cited page of this study. Working capital is included in the capital costs. Working capital changes with the levels of production and are resources used to support a business until it begins to generate its own support, generally in the form of profits. Most working capital comes in the form of start-up, short-term loans. Enough capital is needed to cover expenses incurred by the business during the start-up phases and slow sales periods to remain in production. Working capital to cover two months of operation with no income produced, including payment to producers for raw products, and any debt payment that may be incurred is assumed. Table 9 indicates the total capital cost needed for each level of production. 14 Table 9. Capital Cost for 2,713 Pounds/Hr IQF Line Cost Category Cost Building $1,718,000 Plant Equipment $889,252 Working Capital $1,251,678 Total $3,858,929 Total capital required to operate the facility will fluctuate by +/- $200,000 depending on the vegetable utilized. The working capital above uses the green pepper scenario, where peppers cost $.26 a pound. The squash and zucchini working capital costs will total $1,400,976, while the onions will be $1,255,320. Capital cost is the total estimated capital raised by the cooperative through equity and/or debt financing. Fixed Costs Total fixed costs are expenditures which will not change with production levels or time. Stated another way, costs remain the same if 1 ton or 1,000 tons are produced. Fixed costs are flat and consistent with the same costs occurring each period, whereas other costs are related to the level of output. Included in fixed cost are interest, depreciation, taxes and insurance, and administrative costs. Economic depreciation is used to cover physical deterioration and function obsolescence of equipment and/or regulations. Annualized cost of the internal capital and return on investment is built into the economic analysis. If helpful, depreciation can be thought of as the annual average principal debt payment occurring if a loan is structured for the entire capital costs for the anticipated useful life of the facility. Return on invested capital can be thought of as the average annual interest payment for a loan capitalized over the anticipated useful life of the facility. Fixed costs are equivalent for all scenarios since each uses the same equipment. Salaried employees are considered “fixed” for this analysis since their costs are not easily changed with production levels. Administrative employees include: a manager, salesperson, bookkeeper, and a secretary. The manager, food scientist, and salesperson receive annual salaries of $75,000(2) and $50,000, respectively, with the potential for commissions. These people are responsible for scheduling delivery of raw and finished products, ordering input supplies, and creating contacts for direct sales, and ensure food safety. The administrative employees receive benefits. A part-time bookkeeper, with an estimated salary of $7,500 is included in administrative costs. Table 10 indicates total fixed costs, each scenario will have the same fixed cost. 15 Table 10. Fixed Cost for 2,713 Pounds/Hr IQF Line Cost Category Administrative Costs & Benefits Taxes and Insurance Depreciation-Building Depreciation – Plant Equipment Interest on Investment-Building and Start-Up Costs Interest on Investment - Plant Equipment Total Fixed Cost Cost $176,225 $26,073 $101,280 $127,036 $85,900 $44,463 $560,976 Direct Vegetable Costs Direct vegetable costs are payments to producers to obtain their raw product. These costs are derived from the Georgia County Farmgate Value Report published by the Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development. All prices were converted from their Farmgate units into pounds. The shrink column in Table 11 refers to the percentage lost when preparing vegetables for blanching and the IQF line. Table 11. Direct Costs Per Pound for Select Frozen Vegetables. $/Lb Vegetable 3/8" Sliced Carrots 5" Corn Cobs Cut Corn Cut Squash/Zucchini Diced Potatoes Green Slice Peppers Lima Beans Melon Balls Melon Cubes Peas Sliced Squash/Zucchini Snap Beans Direct Cost $0.14 $0.14 $0.14 $0.26 $0.00 $0.23 $0.28 $0.00 $0.00 $0.35 $0.26 $0.40 $/Unit Farmgate Price $7.00 $5.15 $5.15 $7.75 $5.60 $7.00 $15.00 N/A N/A $10.00 $7.75 $12.00 Farmgate Units 48lb 1 carton (42lbs) 2 carton (42lbs) 3/4 bu crate (30lbs) 50 lbs 1 1/9 bu (30lbs) 1 bu (30lbs) N/A N/A 1 bu (28lbs) 3/4 bu crate (30lbs) 1 bu (30lbs) Shrink 35% 50% 67% 50% N/A 32% 60% N/A N/A 50% 50% 50% Table 11 exhibits the cost the farm receives per pound of vegetable from the field. Included in the direct cost is a transportation fee of $.05 per pound of vegetable. Direct Labor Labor cost to run the IQF line for 300 days totaled $342,106. The break down costs is shown in Table 12. The operation will be open 6 days a week for 8 hours per day, 50 weeks per year. The hourly wage rate was $12. 16 Table 12. Labor Cost for IQF Line Shift Super (1) Fork Lift Drivers (1) Laborers (10) Payroll Taxes Total $24,960 $24,960 $240,000 $52,186 $342,106 Variable Costs/Other Direct Costs Variable costs associated with this project include labor, utilities, insurance, repairs, rental agreements, disposal, and operating costs. Operating costs include: boxes, cleaning supplies, and bags. The utility cost estimates provided by Georgia Power and The Baylor Group differed slightly for each product, but the total estimate cost was $140,000, the largest component of the variable cost. To establish variable cost per pound of product, maximum capacity per product was determined annually. At full capacity, variable costs was calculated annually then divided by the maximum pounds. The quotient was the variable price per pound of product. A short-term storage cost is included in the variable cost. Each vegetable’s variable cost differs because of varying heat and water contents and processing times per pound. Table 13. Total Variable Cost Per Vegetable Vegetable Cut Squash/Zucchini Green Slice Peppers Sliced Squash/Zucchini Onions Other Direct $.10 $.10 $.10 $.10 Total Variable Cost $0.59 $0.52 $0.59 $0.52 The total variable cost column includes payment to the producer for unprocessed vegetable. These variable cost figures where then used in an optimization model to determine the most profitable combination of vegetables. Linear Programming Results Linear programming is a mathematical technique that finds maximums of linear functions in variable subject to constraints. In the case of this project the researcher wanted to maximize profit by these constraints, pounds available, seasonality of crops, and returns over variable cost. The frozen vegetable sales prices are 2001 average prices from the Food Marketing Institute. As mentioned earlier a short-term storage cost is included in the variable cost, while freezer cost is included in the fixed cost category. Table 14 indicates the results of the analysis. Due to similar seasons among many of the vegetables, the quick freeze operation could run approximately 300 days if controlled atmosphere were 17 utilized. The first or most profitable crop or most profitable to be processed according to this linear programming model would be the carrots in squash, then zucchini, and finally green peppers. These vegetables were chosen based on the constraints of pounds available, the seasonality of these vegetables and returns over variable costs. Table 14. Optimum Through Pat, Tift IQF Line Vegetable Current Yields Lbs w/ Shrink Lbs/ Hour Lbs/ Day Total Lbs VC/ Lb Price/ LB Return Days Profit Full Acres GP 4,071,600 2,768,688 2,800 22,400 - $0.52 $0.53 $0.01 0 $0 0 Yellow Squash 21,210,000 10,605,000 2,880 23,040 2,764,800 $0.59 $0.63 $0.04 120 $110,592 61 Zucchini 8,749,200 4,374,600 2,880 23,040 2,764,800 $0.59 $0.63 $0.04 120 $110,592 70 Onion 11,500,000 6,325,000 2,730 21,840 $0.52 $0.47 ($0.05) 0 $0 0 Total 45,530,800 24,073,288 $221,184 131 5,529,600 The pounds used above already have the shrink factor incorporated into them per product. Some vegetables are tipped and tailed while others do not need modification. Table 14 indicates that a combination of yellow squash and zucchini creates a profit maximizing results. A return of $221,184 over the direct vegetable and variable cost is produced by quick freezing the squash and zucchini combination. However, referring to Table 14, fixed costs are $560,976. Subtracting the return over variable costs from the fixed cost yields the profit/loss figure. So, $221,184 - $560,976 = $(339,792), the facility has a loss of $229,792 annually. The acreage column in Table 14 represents how many fully dedicated acres would be needed to supply the pounds used in the model. The cooperative would not necessarily dedicate this acreage but would need the total yield of this number of acres. So, if the fresh market squash price decreased the cooperative may choose to remove a portion of each producers squash from the fresh market and place it into the IQF facility. As long as the pounds needed are met it does not matter how many acres are used. Profit versus Change in Direct Cost (Farmgate Values) Graphs 1 reveals how profit is affected by a change in the direct purchase price of the raw vegetables. The vegetable prices are from the Farmgate Value Report. Graph 1 is used for both squash and zucchini since they have the same price per pound. 18 Graph 1. Profit Versus Direct Costs, Squash and Zucchini $100,000 $0 $19,632 ($52,253) ($100,000) ($124,138) ($196,022) Profit/Loss ($200,000) ($267,907) ($300,000) ($339,792) ($400,000) ($411,677) ($483,562) ($500,000) ($555,446) ($600,000) ($627,331) ($700,000) ($699,216) ($800,000) $0.20 $0.21 $0.22 $0.23 $0.25 $0.26 $0.27 $0.29 $0.30 $0.31 $0.33 Price Per Pound Graph 1 illustrates that if the facility can purchase squash or zucchini at $.20 per pound or at a 25% decrease in the current price a profit of $19,632 can be obtained. This news is significant, since the raw product prices’ used are for fresh quality vegetable, if cull vegetables can be obtained trimmed and accepted by the market it would be easier to create a profit. Frozen vegetable brokers mention they want vegetable free of blemishes, uniform in size, and consistent in color. If the culls can meet these standards then can be used. Re-packing Facility A re-packing phase may be added to increase profitability. A re-packing phase uses equipment not included in this report such as an automatic dump and scale with baggers. This equipment will bag frozen vegetables and mixes of vegetables into smaller retail sized units, 1 and 2 pound bags as seen in the frozen food section of large retailers. Many IQF facilities in the United States also offer this service. Since the Tift area has a large quantity of vegetables available, it seems natural to offer repacking close to the area of production and freezing. According to The Baylor Group (2001), repacking facilities for large retailers often pay $.07 per pound to repackage frozen vegetables with their private label. The potential to save retailers money and time by having the product already available, lowering transportation cost, and dealing with fewer intermediaries indicates the value of investigating a repacking enterprise. In addition to existing packing equipment, an additional hopper would be needed. Many hoppers can handle 1 or 2 vegetable products. The largest vegetable blend contains 8 varieties; therefore, approximately 3-5 additional hoppers would need to be added. At $52,000 each, additional cost ranges from $156,000-$260,000. 19 Conclusion A quick freeze processing line in the Tift County area appears to be profitable only when using cull vegetables or the cooperative purchases vegetables around $.20 per pound. Entrance into the market will take time. Barriers of entry facing the IQF line are: high up front costs, and a tightly controlled market by a few large firms. These limitations need to be addressed by the cooperative prior to investment into equipment. The market presently appears to be able to absorb more frozen vegetables than is currently supplied. This situation, according to one broker interviewed, should continue. The biggest obstacle to this processing plant is establishing a reputation for providing a high quality product on a consistent basis. This may become a problem if the cooperative has limited #1’s or high quality #2’s available for freezing. When the fresh market price tumbles, more vegetables will be frozen. However, when prices increase dramatically, the supply of inputs to the processing plant will diminish. Squash and zucchini must be of high quality, free of serious blemishes, and uniform in size and color. 20 Works Cited American Food Institute, May 21, 2000. www.affi.com Economic Research Service, USDA. www.ers.usda.gov “Farm Gate Value Report 2000,” Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development, The University of Georgia. www.agecon.uga.edu/~caed USDA, Frozen Cold Storage Report, June 2001. Doug Horn, Vandern Farms, May 2001. Hal Baylor, The Baylor Group, Food Plant Supply Division. 210-340-1541. Claxton Cold Storage, 912-739-3271. The Center for Agribusiness & Economic Development The Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development is a unit of the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences of the University of Georgia, combining the missions of research and extension. The Center has among its objectives: To provide feasibility and other short term studies for current or potential Georgia agribusiness firms and/or emerging food and fiber industries. To provide agricultural, natural resource, and demographic data for private and public decision makers. To find out more, visit our Web site at: http://www.caed.uga.edu Or contact: John McKissick, Director Center for Agribusiness and Economic Development Lumpkin House The University of Georgia Athens, Georgia 30602-7509 Phone (706)542-0760 caed@agecon.uga.edu The University of Georgia and Fort Valley State University, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture and counties of the state cooperating. The Cooperative Extension Service offers educational programs, assistance and materials to all people without regard to race, color, national origin, age, sex or disability. An equal opportunity/affirmative action organization committed to a diverse work force. FR-02-13 October 2002 Issued in furtherance of Cooperation Extension Acts of May 8 and June 30, 1914, the University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture cooperating. J. Scott Angle, Dean and Director