Development Actions and the Rising
Incidence of Disasters
International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC)
Davos, Switzerland, August 25-29, 2008
Workshop on Monitoring and Evaluation of Disaster Risk Reduction
Silke Heuser, Evaluator
Floods and storms are increasing
Disaster Occurrence by Type 1972-2005 Global
200
180
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Wind Storm
Slides
Pest Infestation
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
94
19
96
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
82
19
84
19
80
19
76
Flood
Drought
Volcano
19
78
19
74
0
19
72
No. of Events
160
Earthquake
Wild Fires
Wave / Surge
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium"
1
Most Bank-financed infrastructure at risk
► 60 percent of Bank investments in infrastructure, rural
development, and environment are at risk to flooding and 23
percent are at risk to tropical storms
Table 1. Bank Investments at Risk to Floods and Storms
Number of borrowers at
risk, with active
portfolios in vulnerable
sectors
Percent of
vulnerable sector
portfolios
at risk
Amount of Bank
lending vulnerable
(US $billions)
84
28
60
23
36.0
7.3
Floods
Tropical Storms
Source: IEG and World Bank data.
% of Projects
The most common Bank response to
storms and floods is road reconstruction
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
45%
42%
t
l
or
tro
sp
on
n
a
C
r
od
s/T
ad
Flo
Ro
31%
30%
29%
11%
me
uip
Eq
nt
v
/En
ic.
r
Ag
e
nm
iro
nt
S
te r
Wa
p./
up
ra
we
Se
ge
/S
ing
us
o
H
lte
he
r
yS
erg
n
E
10%
ply
up
2
How much are roads at risk from flooding?
►Since 1955, the Bank financed construction of 1,270
kilometers of highways and feeder roads in
Honduras (seven transportation projects)
►By 1998, there were approximately 10,000
kilometers of roads in the country
►In 1998, Hurricane Mitch destroyed 6,000
kilometers of roads (60 percent)—almost five times
what the Bank had helped to build
►In addition, more than 163 bridges were damaged or
destroyed
Roads may increase disaster risk
►When a road is built in a forested area, deforestation
and erosion are not far behind
►Large-scale paving of surfaces significantly reduces
infiltration
►Natural storage of water in the ground is reduced by
improved drainage
►Bridges may constrict the flow of water, especially
when designers are unaware of peak rainy season
flows
3
IEG mapped Bank-financed port projects approved
between 1983 and 2006
IEG superimposed port projects on hazard risk maps
y WB-funded port projects
◎ 100 km area around port
project
■■■ Layers of risk
4
There is little planning for S&F risks
►44 percent of Country Assistance Strategies worldwide
did not mention natural disasters
►Compared to the Bank’s entire active lending portfolio,
projects at risk to floods represent 38 percent of
current Bank lending, and projects at risk to tropical
storms represent 8 percent. And both disaster types are
on the rise
►Infrastructure-based strategies to protect from flooding
may exacerbate the problem
5
Population as a driver
► Today’s population is three times larger than it was at the beginning of the
20th century
► Global population grew in the past 20 years at an average rate of 1.4%; Africa
and Asia at a much higher rate
Source: Global Environmental Outlook 4, United nations Environmental Programme
Urbanizing watersheds and the coast
►Increasingly urbanized settlements result in
environmental degradation and disrupt
watershed dynamics
►“Greenfield” sites become urbanized with
streets and walkways which aggravates
flooding
►Of the 25 megacities, 14 are on the coast and
7 are within a few hours’ drive, increasing
human and economic losses from tropical
storms
6
Development actions that increase
vulnerability
► Settlement density and siting (megacities, coastal areas)
► Over asphalting (reduces infiltration and groundwater
storage)
► Land use changes − may lead to soil degradation, erosion,
and runoff
► Failure to finance and conduct maintenance of infrastructure
► Bridges and embankments may constrict flow of water
► Hardening of the coast line (sea walls and embankments)
► The poor often deplete natural resources in their quest for
food, fuel, and shelter
Development actions that reduce
vulnerability to floods and storms
►Land use planning and zoning: Placement of
infrastructure to reduce exposure
►Building codes: A 10-15 percent increase in cost can
usually make a building safe from all but the most
extreme earthquakes and storms
►Flood warning technology
►Restoration of natural protection (restoring
wetlands, replanting mangroves)
7