Planning in a Cascading Hydro System
with Significant Wind Penetration
Federal Columbia River Hydro
 Over 20,000 MW Nameplate of Federal
hydroelectric generation
 Average Annual Runoff 132 maf (million
acre feet)
2
Grand Coulee
 6,765 MW Nameplate
 Irrigates over 600,000
acres
 9.3 maf storage
3
The Hydroelectric System
4
Power = f(Water)
5
Hydro System Storage
6
Modeling Runoff
 Long-term LOLP reliability modeling
 Within Year Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction (ESP)
 2 to 3 week energy optimization based on
weather forecasted loads and streamflows
 Next day Heavy Load Hour (HLH)
optimization
7
Northwest Wind Power Generation
 Around 4700 MW connected to the federal
transmission system
 Wind output in the BPA balancing authority
has exceeded hydro generation and
supplied up to 87% of the BA load
8
Shepherds Flat
 845 MW
Nameplate
 338 GE 2.5
MW
Turbines
9
The Wind Fleet
10
Wind SCE and Balancing Reserves
11
Operational Challenges
 Balancing Reserves
 Fish Operations
 Oversupply
12
Reliability Concerns
BPA Balancing Authority Area Load & Total Wind
Generation
Jan. 5-25, 2009
10000
9000
8000
7000
5000
4000
BPA TOTAL WIND GENERATION
3000
2000
BPA BALANCING AUTHORITY AREA LOAD
1000
Date/Time (5-min increments)
1/25/09
1/24/09
1/23/09
1/22/09
1/21/09
1/20/09
1/19/09
1/18/09
1/17/09
1/16/09
1/15/09
1/14/09
1/13/09
1/12/09
1/11/09
1/10/09
1/9/09
1/8/09
1/7/09
1/6/09
0
1/5/09
MW
6000
13
Seasonal Uncertainty
14
Ramping Capability
15
Load Coincidence
16
Planning Challenges
 Monthly and Annual Energy Variability
 Capacity Value of Wind
 System Flexibility
17
Lessons Learned
 When planning for wind
• Verify if each hour has the same expectation
• Verify if each season or month has the same
expectation
• Beware of independence
• Model the underlying system flexibility needs
for ramping and reserves
18
Public Data
 BPA Wind Fleet Forecast and Actual
 BPA and OSU Anemometer Data
 BPA Control Area Load Actual
 Regional Load
 Intertie Transmission Ratings and Usage
19
For More Information
 BPA wind initiatives
• http://www.bpa.gov/Projects/Initiatives/Wind/Pa
ges/default.aspx
 Northwest Power and Conservation
Council Wind Integration Forum
• http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/Wind/Default.
asp
20
Thank you for your attention.
bkkujala@bpa.gov (prior to Feb 22nd) OR
BKujala@NWCouncil.org (after Feb 22nd)
http://www.linkedin.com/in/kujala
21
Appendix
READING BIBLIOGRAPHY
Reserves and Wind Power
 Sequential Monte Carlo and Historical Data
• A. M. L. L. da Silva, W. S. Sales, L. A. da Fonseca Manso, and R.
Billinton, “Long-Term Probabilistic Evaluation of Operating Reserve
Requirements With Renewable Sources,” Power Systems, IEEE
Transactions on, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 106 –116, Feb. 2010.
• Y. V. Makarov, C. Loutan, J. Ma, and P. de Mello, “Operational Impacts of
Wind Generation on California Power Systems,” Power Systems, IEEE
Transactions on, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 1039 –1050, May 2009.
 Incorporating Reserves into Cleared Markets
• M. A. Ortega-Vazquez and D. S. Kirschen, “Estimating the Spinning
Reserve Requirements in Systems With Significant Wind Power
Generation Penetration,” Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 24,
no. 1, pp. 114 –124, Feb. 2009.
23
Reliability and Wind Power
 Hydro Coordination
• L. V. L. Abreu, M. E. Khodayar, M. Shahidehpour, and L. Wu, “RiskConstrained Coordination of Cascaded Hydro Units With Variable Wind
Power Generation,” Sustainable Energy, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 3, no.
3, pp. 359 –368, Jul. 2012.
• R. Karki, P. Hu, and R. Billinton, “Reliability Evaluation Considering Wind
and Hydro Power Coordination,” Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on,
vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 685–693, May 2010.
 Capacity Value
• A. Keane, M. Milligan, C. J. Dent, B. Hasche, C. D’Annunzio, K. Dragoon,
H. Holttinen, N. Samaan, L. Söder, and M. O’Malley, “Capacity Value of
Wind Power,” Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 26, no. 2, pp.
564–572, May 2011.
24
System Flexibility
 Metrics
• E. Lannoye, D. Flynn, and M. O’Malley, “Evaluation of Power System
Flexibility,” Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 922
–931, May 2012.
25