National Round Table on The Environment and the Economy Market Failures and The Optimal Use of Brownfield Redevelopment Policy Instruments National Brownfields Redevelopment Strategy Canadian Economics Association 37th Annual Meeting Dr. Dan Hara 1066 Somerset St. West, Suite 406, Ottawa, Ontario, K1Y 4T3, 613-233-9509 hara@haraassociates.com Hara Associates Reference: 1435 January 14, 2003 Abstract for Canadian Economics Association 37th Annual Meeting Brownfields (underdeveloped contaminated urban land) are a significant environmental and growth challenge for Canadian cities. Brownfield policy literature is dominated by analysis of the United States in the liability context created by U.S. Superfund legislation. This paper, sponsored by the National Round Table on Environment and the Economy (NRTEE), analyzes the effectiveness of policy options in the Canadian context. In addition, the paper updates the most recent quantitative estimate of public benefits to Canada for channelling urban development into existing brownfields rather than greenfields. Potential benefits appear significantly larger than previously estimated. In the main paper, market failures affecting brownfield development are reviewed and analyzed for their inter-relationships. Available quantitative estimates of the size of externalities generated by the market failures are reviewed. Policy options for government intervention are assessed for their effectiveness in addressing market failures, and ranked in groups recognizing the interdependence of some possibilities. The analysis is supported by a review of available literature on brownfield policy practice in the United States and Canada. A distinction is made between marginally unprofitable brownfields (Tier II), and highly contaminated land (Tier III). The resulting strategy is compared to the current approach in the United States. Appendix C to the paper updates the public benefits to brownfield redevelopment estimated by De Sousa (2002) for the Greater Toronto Area, and provides a rough projection to the national level. Resulting national public benefits for brownfield redevelopment are estimated as high as $7 billion annually. The paper and the Appendices are supporting documents to the NRTEE’s National Brownfields Redevelopment Strategy. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 BACKGROUND 1.1 1.2 1.3 BROWNFIELDS AND GREENFIELDS .............................................................................................. 2 MARKET FAILURE & THE ROLES OF GOVERNMENT AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR ................. 2 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS OF BROWNFIELD REDEVELOPMENT.............................. 2 2 MARKET FAILURES & THE POTENTIAL FOR SELF-FINANCING 5 3 SOURCES OF MARKET FAILURE 7 3.1 3.2 3.3 UNDER-VALUATION: HOW BIG ARE COMMERCIAL BENEFITS TO THIRD PARTIES?............. 7 UNDER-VALUATION: SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS ........................................... 10 MARKET OVERESTIMATION OF COSTS OF BROWNFIELD REDEVELOPMENT ..................... 11 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.3.4 3.3.5 3.3.6 3.3.7 3.3.8 3.3.9 2 CIVIL RISK ........................................................................................................................ 11 REGULATORY RISK ........................................................................................................... 13 INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES ............................................................................................. 14 INSURANCE MARKET FAILURE ........................................................................................... 14 LACK OF ACCESS TO CAPITAL ........................................................................................... 16 REGULATORY DELAYS ...................................................................................................... 16 STIGMA AND RISK PERCEPTION ......................................................................................... 17 INDUSTRY-WIDE ECONOMIES OF SCALE IN INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT .......................... 17 TAX SYSTEM IMPEDIMENTS ............................................................................................... 17 4 KEY FEATURES OF AN EFFECTIVE BROWNFIELDS STRATEGY 18 5 RANKING EFFECTIVENESS OF INDIVIDUAL POLICY INSTRUMENTS 20 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 TAX REFORM/INCENTIVES ........................................................................................................... 20 DIRECT FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE................................................................................................. 23 CAPITAL MARKET INTERVENTIONS ............................................................................................ 25 CIVIL LAW REFORM ....................................................................................................................... 27 REGULATION .................................................................................................................................. 31 INFORMATION................................................................................................................................. 34 INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................................. 35 DIRECT REDEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................... 37 6 RANKING POLICY INSTRUMENTS BY GROUP 37 7 SITUATING THE NRTEE STRATEGY 39 Appendix A: Bibliography Appendix B: Consolidated Table: Effectiveness of Commonly Used Policy Instruments for Brownfield Redevelopment Appendix C: Note on Rough Estimate of National Public Benefits for Canadian Brownfield Redevelopment Executive Summary This study is undertaken in support of National Round Table on Environment and the Economy (NRTEE’s) development of a National Brownfield Redevelopment Strategy. The study provides a qualitative social benefit-cost analysis of the effectiveness of alternative policy instruments for brownfield redevelopment. General characteristics of an effective brownfield development strategy are identified, and policy instruments are ranked in groups in order of likely effectiveness. Ranking by group recognizes the interactive impact of some policy interventions. The analysis is supported by a review of available literature on brownfield policy practice in the United States and Canada. A bibliography is provided in Appendix A. The analysis: • • • • • Identifies the principal market failures causing poor rates of brownfield redevelopment by the Canadian private sector. Identifies key characteristics of an effective brownfields strategy to correct or compensate for those market failures. Establishes a generic set of the most common policy instruments used to address brownfield redevelopment. Rates individual policy instruments high, medium, or low according to their effectiveness in addressing specific market failures. Provided a ranking of effective policy instruments by group. Relevant Market Failures Markets, the free exchange of goods and services, do not always work well. When they fail, or are imperfect, actions that increase the collective national wealth may not take place. This is the case for brownfields. There are a number of significant market failures that prevent redevelopment of land, even when the redevelopment would create enough wealth and income to more than pay the cost. Markets fail when a developer or landowner lack important information, or when decisions have impacts on those who are not parties to the transaction. In the latter case, redevelopers and landowners will naturally act efficiently in their own commercial interests. When there are additional social interests or third-party interests to be taken into account, it is a role of governments to find cost-effective means of introducing these considerations into the private sector decision-making process. The study divides market failures restricting brownfield redevelopment into those that cause private developers to: • Undervalue Commercial Benefits. Market failures that cause undervaluing of the income generating benefits of redevelopment to all affected parties. These include: o Third-party wealth and income impacts. o Infrastructure cost savings. Hara Associates ii o Transportation cost savings. o Municipal services cost saving. • Overvalue Costs. Market failures that cause potential developers to assess higher project costs than the true cost to society. These include: o Tax system impediments. o Regulatory Risk. o Civil Risk. o Information Asymmetries. o Insurance Market Failure. o Lack of Access to Capital. o Regulatory Delays. o Stigma and Risk Perception. o Economies of Scale in Institutional Development • Exclude Social and Environmental Benefits. Private markets typically fail to capture collective benefits such as environmental benefits, improved neighbourhoods, preserved wetlands and greenfields, and health impacts not effectively recoverable through court action. The first two categories are found to be particularly important to Brownfield redevelopment strategy, as they define Tier 2 brownfields – those for which redevelopment is most feasible and likely to attract private interest. If these market failures can be corrected, then private developers will see them as profitable and development may proceed. Equivalently, if the market failures cannot be corrected directly, but can be offset through financial incentives, then the development will generate sufficient wealth and income in the tax base to repay the incentives to the public budget. Key Findings There are a variety of policy instruments available to address these market failures. Appendix B provides a list of the most commonly used, and summarizes findings on the relevant market failures addressed and effectiveness of the tool. The instruments selected by NRTEE brownfields strategy are indicated in the table by recommendation number. Study findings also included these conclusions on the desirable characteristics of an effective brownfields redevelopment strategy: • Strategic measures should address both risk and financial incentives. While a great deal of discussion has occurred around the market failures stemming from uncontrolled risks faced by developers, correcting this alone would not achieve full realization of the benefits available from redevelopment of Tier II land. The value of 3rd party wealth creation would still not be included in the decisions of private sector redevelopers. Available literature, suggests that the magnitude of these benefits is significant. To introduce this factor into private decision-making, some form of financial incentives is needed. • Project-by-project assessments required. To effectively deliver financial incentives, whether as low interest loans or outright grants, a strategy will require components that Hara Associates iii assess the need for incentives on a project-by-project basis. The alternatives, such as broad rules-based tax credits have two drawbacks if used exclusively: their effectiveness will be diluted by transfers to Tier I lands as well as Tier II; and there is a risk of transferring the entire social benefit of redevelopment to the redeveloper, at the expense and administrative cost borne by the tax-payer. Consistent with the second point, redevelopment of Tier 2 lands will range from brownfields that are marginally unprofitable to those that require significant assistance to motivate the private sector to take an interest. An effective strategy will utilize broad systemic measures to nudge the former into redevelopment and apply increasingly focused incentives to the latter through project-by-project assessment. From this perspective, the study ranks effective intervention tools in the following groups. Broad Systemic Measures The following tools were found to be effective individually, and provide the highest yield with minimal impact on the public purse. They are focused on correcting market failures leading to developers over-valuing costs or requiring excessive rates of project return due to undiversifiable risks: • • • • • Deductible remediation expenses (qualified by simple limits and eligibility rules). Mortgage insurance for brownfield redevelopment (market making by the CMHC) Lender liability limits Time limits on civil liability Proportionate allocation of civil liability (as opposed to joint and several liability) Project-by-Project Measures Redevelopments that are net-wealth creating, but further from break-even as perceived by the private sector, will require more additional incentive with greater implications for the public purse. To limit these expenditures to Tier 2 land, and on an as-needed basis, implementation would have to be on a project-by-project basis. Ideally this would take place within a framework of co-operation among different levels of government to avoid duplication. Depending on the private sector viability of the project, required assistance might range from providing some assurance limiting future risk of clean-up orders (at the low end), to loans and grants (at the high end of assistance). Measures found to be effective in this group include: • • • • • • Certificates of Compliance & Associated Public Insurance Remediation loans Project loans (e.g. revolving funds etc.) Abatements Tax forgiveness Grants Measures Increasing Leverage Once the most substantive sources of market failure are addressed, there are additional policy tools that increase the effectiveness of other interventions at reasonable cost. This includes better Hara Associates iv information to consumers, practitioners, and redevelopers, and measures to standardize and develop institutions supporting brownfield redevelopment. Tools identified as effective in this group are: • • • • • • Standards of Practice (in regulation and professional practice) Deed registration Land pre-qualification Public information. Technology dissemination. Training & capacity building. The above sets may be implemented as groups. Jointly they are found to offer the highest level of effective intervention for the redevelopment of brownfields by correcting market failures and harnessing the efficiencies of the private sector. Hara Associates Market Failures & Optimal Use of Brownfields Redevelopment Instruments In December 2001, the Federal Budget Speech included these words: Across Canada, as in most countries, contaminated land lies unused and unproductive. Such sites, known as brownfields, may have the potential for rejuvenation, bringing both health and economic benefits to local communities. Therefore, responding to the Government, the NRTEE has agreed to develop a National Brownfield Redevelopment Strategy in order to ensure that Canada is a global leader in remediation. This study is undertaken in support of National Round Table on Environment and the Economy (NRTEE’s) development of a National Brownfield Redevelopment Strategy. The study provides a qualitative social benefit-cost analysis of the effectiveness of alternative policy instruments for brownfield redevelopment. General characteristics of an effective brownfield development strategy are identified, and policy instruments are ranked in groups in order of likely effectiveness. Ranking by group recognizes the interactive impact of some policy interventions. The analysis is supported by a review of available literature on brownfield policy practice in the United States and Canada. A bibliography is provided in Appendix A. The analysis: • • • • • Identifies the principal market failures causing poor rates of brownfield redevelopment by the Canadian private sector. Identifies key characteristics of an effective brownfields strategy to correct or compensate for those market failures. Establishes a generic set of the most common policy instruments used to address brownfield redevelopment. Rates individual policy instruments high, medium, or low according to their effectiveness in addressing specific market failures. Provided a ranking of effective policy instruments by group. The analysis also incorporates discussion of two specific issues: • • The relative effectiveness and/or complementarity of regulatory/legislative measures to address liability issues, versus the use of financial incentives. The distinction between removing impediments in the tax system and the creation of new tax incentives. Hara Associates 2 1 1.1 BACKGROUND Brownfields and Greenfields “Brownfields” may be defined as abandoned, vacant, derelict or under-utilized commercial land or industrial properties where past actions have resulted in actual or perceived contamination. They range from small former sites of gasoline service stations to large parcels of land previously used in manufacturing or processing. Left as they are, brownfields can harm the local economy and pose a threat to human health and environmental quality. The term “brownfield” is related to an opposite term: “greenfield”. Private sector real estate developers often face the choice of locating their projects in “greenfields” at a city’s periphery, such as farmland and wetlands, or in “brownfields” closer to the heart of Canada’s cities. For a variety of reasons discussed in this paper, profit-maximizing private developers are more likely to choose greenfields, leaving cities with a volume of unutilized or underutilized land in their midst. This introduces a public policy problem, since there are collective economic and social benefits to brownfield redevelopment. 1.2 Market Failure & the Roles of Government and the Private Sector This paper applies a social benefit/cost perspective to brownfield redevelopment. Competitive markets are assumed to offer advantages to society through the efficient coordination of the economy. Within this framework, the self-interest of private sector agents is a virtue motivating the coordination of the economy. It is a role of government to ensure a framework that harnesses and directs self-interest to the common good. When the incentives experienced by participants in the market place do not reflect all of the relevant costs and benefits to society as a whole, it can be shown that markets will not produce the result that maximize the common good. This is termed market failure. Governments may correct market failure through improvements to the institutional framework within which markets operate, or through offsetting financial incentives or disincentives. In the case of brownfields, there are a variety of third party and collective benefits to brownfield redevelopment. Since these are not captured by private sector self-interest, there is less redevelopment of brownfields than would be optimal for the common good. This paper reviews methods available to public authorities to improve the situation, while still making use of the efficiencies of decentralized market coordination of self-interested private sector agents. 1.3 Economic and Social Benefits of Brownfield Redevelopment Brownfield redevelopment offers a number of collective economic, social, and environmental benefits.1 Economic benefits include: 1 In reality it is difficult to draw a distinction between economic, social and environmental benefits. Social benefit/cost analysis, as practiced by economists, recognizes all things of value to humans as a benefit. In more common language, economic benefits may be defined as those benefits that generate additional resources, or resource savings, that may be in turn be devoted to serving other human needs. However, most social and environmental benefits also fit this definition in the long run. For example, reduced juvenile crime rates from urban redevelopment have long-term impacts on business overheads and costs of administering the justice system for Hara Associates 3 • • • • • • Increased wealth generated by cities Infrastructure cost savings. Reduced transportation costs Increased competitiveness Competitiveness spin-offs in remediation Increased jobs, income, and taxes resulting from remediation activity Social benefits include: • • Reduced illness and death Urban-renewal social benefits Environmental benefits include: • • • Preserved greenfields and wetlands Reduced pollution. Reduced greenhouse gases (GHGs) and global warming (as required by the Kyoto Accord) Each of these benefits is discussed briefly below. Where possible, quantitative indications of the size of potential benefits are provided in italics. There are few quantitative estimates of the value of brownfield redevelopment over greenfields, but the literature that does exist suggests relative benefits may be substantial. Increased Wealth Generated by Cities Cities are the engines of Canadian economic activity and growth. Each achieves its role through unique location advantages plus the shared characteristic of all cities: compactness. Compactness means that economic agents are closer to one another, realizing lower transaction costs and forming more complex working relationships. Brownfields reduce the compactness of cities, in the worst cases forming areas that are simply bypassed by the city and its infrastructure. Like most important factors governing economic development, the impact of brownfields and compactness in general is not easily quantified. However, there are clear lower-bound estimates that imply the minimum impact of redevelopment is high. For example, a portion of the increased productivity of a city is captured in rising property values. Estimates from one recent U.S. study2 suggest that as brownfields are redeveloped, surrounding properties within as much as a 1.5 mile radius may rise in value by an average of 10%.3 Since the surrounding land area may greatly exceed the land area of the actual brownfield, this represents a significant adults. Reduced global warming has similarly clear economic impacts. Preservation of species has an impact on the stock of bio-diversity accessible to emerging bioscience-based industries. 2 Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. and Laura O. Taylor (2002). Assessing the Impacts of Environmental Contamination on Commercial and Industrial Properties. UC San Diego Division of Social Sciences Working Paper. (Sponsored by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 3 More precisely, commercial and industrial properties near brownfields averaged 10% lower property value after controlling for other location factors. Commercial and industrial properties are a more conservative measure of reduced value of use, since they are not subject to the same magnitude of stigma effects as residential properties. Hara Associates 4 incremental impact. For the study in question, property value differentials for the 44 sites sampled amounted to $1 billion (US). Infrastructure Cost Savings Brownfield redevelopment channels new city growth into existing spaces, away from greenfields at the periphery. Brownfield developments make more effective use of existing infrastructure. Greenfield development requires new infrastructure to service it, including roads, water, power, and waste disposal. A recent comparison of hypothetical brownfield and greenfield development for the Greater Toronto Area found that using brownfields instead of greenfields for commercial development yielded annual savings of an estimated $18 thousand per hectare in infrastructure costs alone.4 Reduced Transportation Costs Channelling growth into brownfields instead of greenfields also means people and goods travel less. In addition to direct reduction in transportation costs for those affected, less road congestion reduces transportation costs for everyone in the city. For residential brownfield redevelopment, annual transportation cost savings have been estimated as high as $66,000 per hectare redeveloped. Increased Competitiveness The effects of increased private sector productivity through compact land-use; reduced tax burden to support infrastructure; and the improved business climate from better neighbourhoods and reduced congestion; all combine to increase the competitiveness of Canadian cities seeking development opportunities in the continental and world economy. Competitiveness Spin-offs in Remediation Remediation of land is an inevitable necessity in the long run. Canada faces the choice of importing professional services and specialized goods, or developing the expertise domestically and, perhaps, becoming a net exporter of brownfield redevelopment techniques and technologies. Early action on brownfield redevelopment will contribute to the development of Canadian expertise, as well as lowering costs of assessment and remediation as Canadian practice improves with increased volume. Increased Jobs, Income, & Taxes from Remediation Activity Remediation of brownfields also yields immediate economic benefits in jobs, income and taxes. A study commissioned in 2002 by NRTEE5 concluded that brownfield redevelopment has a high multiplier effect – the degree to which initial dollars spent are re-spent within Canada. The high degree of re-spending with Canada is because remediation is labour intensive (including skilled labour) and intensive in Canadian produced goods and services. 4 5 De Sousa, Christopher (2002) Regional Analytics Inc. (2002) Hara Associates 5 Reduced Illness and Death Contaminated land represents a health risk to people on surrounding lands. Toxic chemicals or other pollutants may contaminate water and air, resulting in illness or death. While it is the responsibility of provincial governments to address known toxic sites other than those that fall under federal jurisdiction, not all sites are known. There is a disincentive for private landowners to fully document past land use or to assess contaminants, since such information triggers requirements to act. In addition, the cause-and-effect relationship between human health and contaminants is not always clear. Elements that may be considered at safe levels in one year may be found to be more dangerous as scientific understanding continues to advance. A further complication is that human health impacts are not necessarily proportionate to levels of exposure. Sometimes lower doses have worse impacts. Causation may also be indirect, where contaminants reduce resistance to disease or to cancer. Redeveloping brownfield results in fuller assessment of the risks of contaminants. Remediation places contaminants under greater control. The result is reduced risk of human illness and death. Over many brownfields and many people, the reduced risk manifests in real savings of lives and health of individuals. Urban Renewal Social Benefits Not coincidentally, brownfields are often located in economically depressed neighbourhoods. Such neighbourhoods experience a variety of social ills, including higher crime rates, poorer health, higher unemployment, higher school dropout rates, etc. Brownfield redevelopment is also about the economic redevelopment of neighbourhoods, which in turn reduces the incidence of these social ills. Improved Air Quality and Reduced GHG Emissions (Kyoto Benefits) Channelling growth into brownfields instead of greenfields means results in more compact cities, lower transportation demands, and consequent lower auto emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. For example, it has been estimated6, again for the Greater Toronto Area, that the average kilometres by car for a suburban is more two and a half times that of an urban resident in a former brownfield, due to higher commuter distances and lower use of public transit. Average savings in fuel-based emissions is greater than this ratio, since fewer kilometres means lower congestion and increase fuel efficiency for other travellers, especially at peak commuter time periods. 2 MARKET FAILURES & THE POTENTIAL FOR SELF-FINANCING Markets, the free exchange of goods and services, do not always work well. When they fail, or are imperfect, actions that increase the collective national wealth may not take place. This is the case with brownfields. There are a number of significant market failures that prevent redevelopment of land, even when the redevelopment would create enough wealth and income to more than cover the costs associated with that redevelopment. 6 De Sousa, Christopher. (2002) Hara Associates 6 Text Box 2.1 Self-Financing - Tier 1 and 2 Brownfields Relationship to Source of Market Failure The figure below illustrates* the roles of market failures in defining Tier 1 and 2 brownfields, and the implications for potential selffinancing of redevelopment. The horizontal axis represents hectares of brownfield ranked in order of increasing cost of remediation per hectare. The increasing cost is shown by solid line rising from left to right, “Cost to Developer”. A second solid line, “Commercial Benefits to Developers” represents the decreasing $ return on land to developers as successively less attractive properties are developed. The two solid lines meet at Point A. All land to the left of Point A will be developed by the private sector under current circumstances since benefits to the private decision maker exceed costs – this is Tier 1. However, the costs perceived by the developer are higher than necessary due to a variety of market failures, such as the inability to diversify environmental risks. The true cost is represented by a lower dotted line “Cost Without Market Failures”. Similarly, the developer does not account for additional income generated to third parties, such as neighboring landowners, by brownfield redevelopment. This too is a form of market failure. From a government and social perspective, this additional productivity represents an income stream that could repay the cost of brownfield redevelopment. Accounting for this additional income raises benefits to the dotted line “Commercial Benefits to All Parties. The two dotted lines meet at point B. Land between points A and B would generate commercial benefits to all parties more than sufficient to offset development costs, but will not be developed by the private sector without correcting or compensating for the market failures. These are Tier 2 brownfields. Beyond Tier 2 there are additional brownfields that, if redeveloped, t would also generate net social benefits, however they do not offer the potential to be self-financing. The additional benefits, such as improved human health or preserved wetlands, are of value to society individually and collectively but do not represent recoverable income streams that can be used for financing. This is Tier 3, represented by Point C on the figure. $/Hectare Cost to Developer C Cost Without Market Failures Combined Commercial and Social Benefits B A Commercial Benefits All Parties Commercial Benefits To Developer Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Brownfield Hectares Potentially Self-financing (* A two dimensional diagram requires simplifying assumptions because land characteristics vary in many ways. The same propositions as illustrated may be demonstrated mathematically.) Hara Associates 7 Market failures restricting brownfield redevelopment may be broadly divided in those that cause private developers to: • • • Undervalue Commercial Benefits. Market failures that cause undervaluing of the income-generating benefits of redevelopment to all affected parties. Overvalue Costs. Market failures that cause potential developers to assess higher project costs than the true cost to society of the resources used. For example, the current structure of civil and statutory liability for environmental risks (discussed further below) can lead to over-estimated costs. Exclude Social and Environmental Benefits. Private markets typically fail to capture collective benefits such as environmental benefits, improved neighbourhoods, and health impacts not effectively recoverable through court action.7 The first two categories above are particularly important to a brownfield redevelopment strategy, as they define Tier 2 brownfields – those for which redevelopment is most feasible and likely to attract private interest. If these market failures can be corrected, then private developers will see the redevelopment of these brownfields as profitable and development may proceed. Equivalently, if the market failures cannot be corrected directly, but can be offset through financial incentives, then the development will generate sufficient wealth and income in the tax base to repay to the public budget the cost of those incentives. Text Box 2.1 illustrates this point. 3 SOURCES OF MARKET FAILURE Markets fail when a developer or landowner lacks important information, or when decisions have impacts on those who are not parties to the transaction. This section addresses the most commonly cited market failures, according to the three categories defined above. 3.1 Under-valuation: How Big are Commercial Benefits to Third Parties? When developers redevelop a brownfield, they receive the direct commercial value of the development they have created. This value, along with risk and cost, governs the decision as to whether to proceed with a brownfield redevelopment project or, where the choice is available, to develop a greenfield instead. Not included in such private sector decisions are the benefits generated to others which cannot be captured commercially by the developer or other participants in the project. These benefits may be termed third party benefits.8 The third party benefits include increased income to the third parties – which we will term commercial benefits. Third party commercial benefits are all the “economic” benefits discussed in Section 1.2. They range from the increased wealth generated by cities through greater compactness to the immediate savings to the public purse from more effective use of existing infrastructure. Because private participants in brownfield redevelopment do not capture these benefits, there are brownfields whose redevelopment would increase net income and wealth of a city, but that are not redeveloped because the redeveloper’s balance sheet, adjusted for risk, anticipates a loss for the project. Thus, without intervention, the market fails to achieve the optimal redevelopment of brownfields. 7 8 The market will take into consideration the risk of successful court actions. Third party in this context refers to someone outside the transactions of a buyer(s), and seller(s). Hara Associates 8 The size of these benefits is an important question for the suggestion that there are significant Tier 2 brownfield sites that could be redeveloped on a self-financed basis. How much wealth generation opportunity is being overlooked in current brownfield use, a little or a lot? Although there is little quantitative data on these third-party benefits, available studies suggest their size is significant. The literature focuses on the impact of brownfields on surrounding property values. Although the potential for increased property value captures only part of the potential increased wealth and income generation, it does serve as a useful lower-bound estimate and provides an indication of the order of magnitude of third party commercial benefits to brownfield redevelopment. Evidence on magnitude begins with the larger literature on impacts of any property improvement on surrounding property values. For example, a recent study of the city of Cleveland found for each dollar invested in the development of a new home, housing within 150 feet increases in value by 6.1 cents.9 In the reverse case, a study of Chicago found that abandoned residential properties reduced the values of surrounding homes by 10% to 20%.10 The literature on brownfield property values may be divided into impacts on commercial property11 and impacts on residential property. In both cases the majority of literature focuses on the value of brownfields themselves, and the recovery in property value after remediation. However, there are also estimates of impacts on neighbouring property values. Estimates for the impact on commercial properties are the most useful, as the issue is less clouded by discussion of whether residential homebuyers’ perception of risk and the resulting stigma effects on price are rational or long lasting. Impact on Commercial Property Values The majority of available estimates suggest there is a significant impact by brownfields on neighbouring property values and that a significant portion of this value is recoverable upon redevelopment or remediation of the brownfield. For example: • In a recent U.S. study Ihlanfeldt & Taylor found that as brownfields are redeveloped, surrounding commercial properties within as much as a 1.5 mile radius may rise in value by an average of 10%.12 Estimated impact over 44 sites amounted to US$ 1 billion.13 • Guntermann (1995) found that open solid waste land-fills depressed surrounding commercial property values by as much as 45%, but that value was recovered when the land-fills were closed (in addition to limiting future risks, closure typically included remediation and control measures such water and methane containment systems). 9 Ding et al (2000) via De Sousa (2002), pg. 270. Persky & Wiewel (1996) via De Sousa (2002) pg. 270. 11 Including industrial uses. 12 More precisely, commercial and industrial properties near brownfields averaged 10% lower property value after controlling for other location factors. 13 Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. and Laura O. Taylor (2002), sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 10 Hara Associates 9 • De Sousa (2002) reports case studies where the redevelopment of one parcel of brownfield land led to increases in the property values of neighbouring brownfield parcels of over 50%.14 Impact on Residential Property Values The impact of brownfields on residential property values is typically estimated to be larger than for commercial land. However, there is a significant debate in the literature on how much of this represents stigma rather than real risk or lost value of use (see for example McClusky & Rausser 1999a, Meyer & Reaves 1998). This debate in turn affects the question of whether remediation can restore value, since pure stigma effects may perpetuate lower values if perceived risk is decoupled from actual risk. Regardless of these distinctions, it is clear that the impact of brownfields on surrounding property values is quite real. Some recent estimates: • Jenkins-Smith et al. (2002), in a case study in Corpus Christi, Texas, found homes within 1.609 km of a lead smelter, where real estate agents were required to disclose the possible presence of lead, zinc and cadmium contamination and clean-up requirements in the neighbourhood, lost an average of 30.5% of their value. • Bond (2000), in a case study of the Swan River, Perth, Australia, found that stigma effects in post-remediated residential sites causes a decrease of approximately 30% in the sale price of houses. • Dale et al. (1999), in a case study in the Dallas area, found that prices do eventually rebound from stigma depression, though more slowly the closer to a contaminated site and the poorer the neighbourhood. • Ketkar (1992), in a study of 64 municipalities in New Jersey, found that the clean-up of one hazardous waste site in a municipality has the effect of increasing property values by $1500 US on average. He further estimated that the cost of clean-up of 129 hazardous waste sites would be $931 million, but that the resultant increased property values would be $12.4 billion. The implied benefit-cost ratio exceeds 13 to one. Impact on Infrastructure and Transportation In addition to the broader wealth-creating impacts of brownfield redevelopment, there are the more immediate impacts of reduced municipal infrastructure costs and transportation costs. There is little quantitative literature in this area specifically related to brownfields. However, the following are derived from a benefit/cost study of the city of Toronto (De Sousa (2002). De Sousa integrated available quantitative estimates on transportation and infrastructure costs from a variety of sources and applied them in a Canadian brownfields context. Net benefits were assessed for two hypothetical cases: a commercial brownfield development and a residential brownfield development. In each case, benefits are measured against the alternative case of placing the same development in a suburban greenfield. Estimated benefits included: 14 Page 270. Hara Associates 10 • Infrastructure: For a commercial development it was estimated that using brownfields instead of greenfields yielded annual savings of an estimated $18 thousand per hectare in municipal infrastructure costs. • Transportation. For residential brownfield redevelopment, annual transportation cost savings were estimated as high as $66,000 per hectare redeveloped. This includes the impact of lower road congestion reducing transportation costs for all commuters. De Sousa also allowed for a limited set of health benefits and impacts on surrounding property values. Health benefits were not quantified but were assumed to be at least equal to remediation and assessment costs.15 Neighbouring property value impacts were assumed to be a 5% increase on an area of land equivalent to the redeveloped property.16 Resulting estimated benefits of brownfield redevelopment for the Greater Toronto Area (relative to the same development in greenfields), were $21 million to $32 million annually for industrial redevelopment, and as $16 to $23 million annually for residential redevelopment. These are in addition to whatever benefits may be assessed from the projects themselves (as opposed to their location). Capitalizing using a conservative 10% real rate of interest17 would make the equivalent one-time gains from $210 to $320 million, and from $160 million to $230 million for commercial and residential properties respectively. Other Income Generating Third Party Benefits These include the remaining benefits discussed in Section 1.3: increased competitiveness, competitiveness spin-offs in remediation, and increased jobs, income, and taxes from remediation activity. Quantitative impact on net income for third parties within Canada is not available at this time. However, the absence of quantitative estimates should not be taken to mean their values are not significant. 3.2 Under-valuation: Social and Environmental Benefits The private participants in brownfield redevelopment decisions will also not fully account for the non-commercial collective benefits, since their own individual portions of those benefits may be small. These are the social and environmental benefits discussed earlier in Section 1.3, ranging from health benefits to people neighbouring brownfields, to the value of wetlands and species preservation from reduced use of greenfields. Again, quantitative estimates of social and environmental benefits of brownfield redevelopment benefits are not available, but they remain significant benefits which Canadian society values collectively. 15 In other words, it was assumed that environmental regulations requiring clean-up themselves passed a test of reason where the cost of clean-up was less than the value of expected health benefits. 16 As noted above, actual property value impacts have been found to be greater than 5%. 17 The real rate of interest is interest after inflation. The estimate of 10% is a real social rate of return recommended by the Treasury Board Secretariat of the Government of Canada as a central value for benefit/cost analysis. The estimate is conservative since more recent literature suggests a lower percentage (more favourable in this case) social rate of return for Canada. Hara Associates 11 3.3 Market Overestimation of Costs of Brownfield Redevelopment One of the efficiencies of a market economy is that, when it works well, private sector perceptions of cost and the actual cost of resources to society are close to the same. In the case of brownfields, there are several inter-related market failures that result in private sector redevelopers perceiving and/or experiencing higher costs than are true and/or necessary.18 Those market failures are reviewed here under the following headings: • • • • • • • • Civil Risk Regulatory Risk Information Asymmetries Insurance Market Failure Lack of Access to Capital Regulatory delay Economies of Scale in Institutional Development Tax System Impediments Solving or mitigating these sources of market failure will increase rate of redevelopment for Tier 2 brownfields, with consequent economic, social, and environment benefits. 3.3.1 Civil Risk Distinguishing Real Costs from Market Failure Redevelopment of brownfields involves risks of future liability from the contaminants in the land resulting from past use. Although remediation can be undertaken to control contaminants or reduce them to acceptable levels – this does not end the risk. Levels of control that are acceptable now may be found to be not acceptable in the future. Elements in the soil that are not considered toxic now may be found to be toxic in the future. Damage to the health of others, and to the loss of use or enjoyment of surrounding land may give rise to future claims for damages. These considerations represent real costs and are not market failures in themselves. On average, these risks will materialize in the future for some redeveloped brownfields in actual claims. In conditions of uncertainty, redevelopers will consider the expected value of such risks for any brownfield. This expected value is part of the real cost of redeveloping brownfield land, and will be incorporated in the price the redeveloper is willing to offer for the brownfield land. On the other hand, owning undeveloped brownfield land also involves these risks for the current landowner. The risks to the current landowner may be higher since the contaminants have not received the remediation that would come with redevelopment. Thus the price the current landowner is willing to accept to sell or convert from current use is also lower to reflect the financial implications of this ongoing risk.19 Through the interaction of the landowner and 18 “Experiencing higher costs” is meant in the broadest sense, including the cost of equity capital. Higher perceived project risks, for example, may cause redevelopers to place a higher price on the availability of their own capital to projects: they will require higher expected rates of return before undertaking a project. 19 Other considerations include the ongoing cost of policing and monitoring, especially in the case of urban land that is unused. Hara Associates 12 potential buyers, the market will take into account the relative benefit of remediation against any increased risk that would result from increased utilization of the land after remediation and redevelopment. While far from perfect – since it relies on an effective and accessible legal system for processing damage claims - this market process is capturing a real cost. The cost may represent a barrier to redevelopment of brownfields, but that barrier is a real cost that should be considered by society in any redevelopment decision. The fact that it is considered is not in itself a market failure, but a market efficiency. Civil Liability & Market Failure However, there are features of current Canadian civil law that may cause the expected value of civil risk to be double counted (or more) in redevelopment decisions: • • • Liability is joint and several. All parties involved in a successful claim are jointly responsible for settlement. If one cannot pay, the others must, regardless of the size of their actual role. Any one party may potentially be required to bear the whole cost of a claim. A contractor who did only one part of the job of remediation may become wholly liable for the claim. A bank that came into possession of a property through loan default may also become wholly liable for the claim. Class of defendants is extensive. Anyone related to the redevelopment project can be sued – the seller of the land, the developer, the banker, consultant, and building authorities may all be subject to liabilities. In combination with joint and several liability, this means that a small contractor who did only one part of job of remediation may become liable for the whole of a claim. No effective time limit to claims. Although there is a time limit to civil claims, the clock does not start ticking until the damage motivating the claim is discovered or discoverable. Since the post-remediation risks include the risk of new discoveries of health risks, or future discoveries of a causal relationship of a problem to the contaminants of the brownfield, the effective liability goes on forever. The net effect is that anyone who becomes involved with a brownfield redevelopment is potentially and endlessly liable for future claims arising from the effects of contaminants on the property, even after remediation. This liability cannot be escaped through the sale of the land or the project, since the joint and several provisions extend through the chain of those involved back to the original participants. In the naïve case, each party (the landowner, the redeveloper, the remediation firms etc.) would count the full value of the expected claim as their own – leading to double-counting the cost as the returns of the project would have to cover the expected liability one time for each participants. In reality there are private contractual mechanisms to overcome this problem when the numbers of parties involved are small, and the time scale limited. For example, a landowner may sell the land and include assumption of the cost of claims as a condition of sale. Parties involved in redevelopment may also contract among themselves to apportion shares of responsibility for paying future claims. The contractual arrangements to overcome these problems rely on the parties knowing each other, and having confidence in the capital depth of each party to bear their share of the liability. Hara Associates 13 If the numbers of parties involved are too large, the contracting costs and knowledge requirements become infeasible. If the time frame is too long, the risk that the financial position of parties may change becomes too great. In the case of brownfields, private contractual arrangements are very limited in their ability to mitigate the problem. Because there is no time limit to claims, and claims may be pursued back through the chain of title, any complete arrangement must involve all parties in both the present and future, and all parties must receive assurance that the parties allocated shares of liability will remain sufficiently solvent in perpetuity. This is clearly not feasible. Thus, while contractual mechanisms can address a portion of the issues created by joint and several liability, it is inevitable that the parties involved will collectively over count the expected value of future claims. This will manifest itself partly in the lower prices any future user or buyer of a completed brownfield redevelopment will be willing to pay. Alternative private mechanisms for coping with this issue – such as insurance – are also problematic and are discussed further below. 3.3.2 Regulatory Risk Brownfield redevelopment will usually include an environmental assessment to identify contaminants, and then remediation to meet the requirements of federal and provincial environment laws and regulations. Developers would prefer that after completing this phase, at whatever cost, the matter of compliance would be settled. It is not. Developers, and later owners of the site, must account for the ongoing risk of new expenses to meet regulatory requirements. These requirements may occur because of • • • the discovery of new contaminants on the land not identified in the original assessment; or the introduction of changes to regulations, perhaps in response to new scientific discoveries or a shift in public policy; or a shift in the interpretation of regulations by government agencies responsible for enforcement. Since environmental laws typically follow the same principle of joint and several liability, regulatory risk parallels civil risk in its unending time frame and multiple parties. As a result, the same problem of over counting the cost of the risk occurs, resulting in a net overestimation of costs of redevelopment, and sub-optimal brownfield redevelopment. The impact of regulatory risk on expected costs of redevelopers is arguably greater than civil risk. In the case of civil risk, there are the twin deterrents of the cost of pursuing a claim by the damaged parties, and the burden of proof of causality between the contaminants and damaged experienced. Governments are not deterred by the cost of court actions (they can be relentless), need only prove that contamination exists (rather than proving causation), and can include the right to issue peremptory orders in their regulatory powers under the environmental legislation. A key example of the unintended chill that government regulation can put on brownfield remediation and redevelopment is the U.S. federal government’s Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), better known as the Superfund. Enacted Hara Associates 14 in 1980, CERCLA was designed to ensure that the worst contaminated U.S. sites were cleaned up, and to avoid endless delay such as that which occurred in previous national environmental scandals, such as Love Canal. CERCLA empowered the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to respond directly to release of hazardous substances, including contaminated sites, and to recover the costs afterwards from those deemed liable (including the principle of joint and several liability). Further, the financing was provided to make the EPA’s Superfund actions credible and vigorous. A separate trust fund was established, funded by an earmarked tax on the chemical and petroleum industries. While CERCLA’s immediate intention was to fund and ensure the clean-up of seriously contaminated sites (e.g. Tier 3 sites in the context of this paper), it is also widely felt that the increased regulatory risk deterred potential developers from redeveloping more feasible sites (e.g. Tier 2 sites). While data is lacking on U.S. performance on Tier 2 sites (sites not identified by the EPA as being on the national priority list), much of the recent innovation in U.S. EPA brownfields programs are an attempt to respond to this perceived failure. 3.3.3 Information Asymmetries When buyers know more than sellers about environmental risks of land, problems of adverse selection are introduced. Similar to the market for used cars, some exchanges of land that should take place do not because buyers cannot fully trust sellers and lower their offering prices accordingly.20 The problem is compounded by unwillingness of sellers to permit their land to be environmentally assessed. Discovery of contamination may trigger regulatory requirements for costly clean-up, without assurance that the buyer would remain interested. 3.3.4 Insurance Market Failure Another efficiency of markets is the ability to diversify risk. When a single individual or group must bear the entire risk of a project, the rate of return the individuals require to undertake the project increases the greater the size of the risk relative to their net worth. Individuals require a personal risk premium to persuade them to risk large portions of their own wealth on a single project. When individuals are able to share the risk through the market place, such as through the purchase of insurance, then the required rate of return will be lower, reflecting only the risk inherent in the project itself.21 20 Because buyers know that sellers may know more about the history of past use of a parcel of land, they assume that the best parcels of land will be held out of the market and developed by the owners themselves. This means that the average risk associated with brownfields offered for sale may be expected to be higher than the average risk for all brownfield properties. Knowing this, potential buyers/redevelopers offer lower prices for land than they would otherwise. This behaviour is reinforced by sellers who, knowing that prices are lower than they could be, will withhold better quality land from the market until they can develop it themselves or find a more knowledgeable buyer. This delays brownfield redevelopment, and may result in brownfields being redeveloped for uses that are less wealth-creating than the ones that would occur with full sharing of information. 21 More precisely, the minimum expected rate of return will be the risk-free rate of return plus a “market-risk” premium based on the covariance of project returns with overall market returns (sometimes termed the beta coefficient in investment literature). Hara Associates 15 22 In the case of brownfields, the ability to diversify risk through insurance is limited. Insurance products are available in Canada, but at a high cost and with important limits to coverage. Insurance products are available in these categories: • • • Clean-up Cost Caps. Cover costs of remediation in excess of specified levels for a project. Pollution Insurance. Typically covers post-remediation civil and regulatory risk. Secured Creditor Policies. Covers creditors for above risks, particularly when the creditor assumes control of the property as a result of default. These products provide some opportunity for relief from civil and regulatory risk, but offer coverage for only fixed time periods. As discussed above, the time period of risk exposure is infinite for all parties involved, including those who have sold or exited from the project. For reasons also discussed above, the number of potential persons needing coverage is large and grows over time, making the sharing of one policy among all parties contractually expensive and perhaps infeasible. The high costs result from the other market failures above. Regulatory risk in particular imposes a government-created risk that must be incorporated into the insurance premium. The large number of potential parties to litigation also imposes high transaction costs in the event of claims. There are also these exacerbating factors:23 • • • Adverse Selection. A well-known phenomenon in insurance markets is that once insurance becomes expensive, the lower-risk potential buyers drop out of the insurance pool, raising the cost of coverage further for the remainder. In the worst case, the market for a particular insurance can collapse entirely as more people drop out at higher and higher prices. Lack of Scale at the Industry Level. The nature of the risk to be insured varies not only by project, but also by jurisdiction. The environment assessment and regulatory regimes vary by province, and may lack standardized procedures within given regimes. As a result, most pollution insurance policies must be hand-written for each project – raising the costs of the insurance considerably. Standardized insurance forms for these products are not available, nor is there sufficient common cases within given jurisdictions for insurance companies to define experience pools from which to statistically assess risk. The fixed cost of drafting policies also makes them infeasible for smaller projects, such as the redevelopment of former gas station locations. The higher costs contribute further to the adverse selection problem. In the absence of other problems, and with greater standardization of government regulatory regimes, it is likely that the scale of brownfield insurance markets would increase and the cost of insurance would drop accordingly. Government failure as an insurance buyer. A further contributor to the lack of scale in brownfield insurance is the low participation rate by municipal and regional governments as brownfield insurance buyers. Local and regional governments often 22 The ability to diversity risk through ownership is also limited. The real-estate development industry in general involves a highly diverse product, as the specifics of each development project vary substantially. As a result, the information costs for diversification of projects through the stock market tend to be too high except for very large projects, and ownership of development firms tends to be concentrated. 23 For a full discussion of insurance issues in the U.S. context see Meyer, various years, in the bibliography of this paper. Hara Associates 16 become the residual holders of brownfields as their original owners abandon them, or as they are acquired through default on taxes. However, governments tend towards selfinsurance, and/or locate their insurance purchasing decisions in branches separate from the economic development branches that address brownfield management issues.24 A further consideration, not discussed in the literature, is the form in which insurance takes place. The insurance products listed above represent one form of coverage. However, our society also deals with insurance through professional insurance of engineers, architects, etc. Each bridge that is built has unique features, but insurance costs are not a significant barrier to bridge building as there is a well-functioning insurance market for professional engineering and architecture firms. 3.3.5 Lack of Access to Capital A further consequence of civil risk and regulatory risk is lack of access to capital to fund brownfield redevelopment projects. Lenders are reluctant to involve themselves in projects that may create these ongoing liabilities for them in perpetuity, especially as they can acquire only limited insurance to cover themselves. The usual step in acquiring financing for real estate, the mortgage of the land, is also problematic. The value brownfields as collateral is limited. Banks will be reluctant to take possession in the event of default since even temporary ownership will expose them fully to the civil and regulatory liabilities from the contaminated land. When capital cannot be borrowed, it must be provided in equity form. Even where potential investors command the required resources themselves, the higher level of financial commitment means a greater proportion of the investors’ wealth is at stake, and a greater rate of return will be required of the project before it will be considered attractive.25 This in turn means fewer brownfields redeveloped than would be the case if capital markets were more accessible. Lack of access to capital is particularly difficult during the initial stages of a brownfield development, before the environmental assessment is complete and the level of risks better understood. 3.3.6 Regulatory Delays Governments themselves create additional risks to investors through undue delay in regulatory processes. Where environmental regulation is slow and cumbersome, the necessary environmental assessments may take years, tying up developer resources and initiative and increasing the cost of the redevelopment. This problem also extends to government programs to help redevelop brownfields. For example, the U.S. EPA recently instituted attractive special tax provisions allowing expensing of clean-up costs for qualifying sites over a three year period. Out of an estimated 30,000 qualifying sites, only a couple of dozen applied. Process delays, including linking with qualifying provisions of other government programs, were one reason suggested for the low uptake.26 U.S. State 24 See Meyer & Yount (1999) for discussion of public authority participation in brownfield insurance markets. See also discussion of diversification in the discussion of insurance market failure. 26 U.S. House of Representatives. (2000) The Reality Behind the Rhetoric: The Failures of EPA’s Brownfields Initiative 25 Hara Associates 17 brownfield programs also appear to receive higher investor interest when processes include legislated time limits.27 3.3.7 Stigma and Risk Perception The ability of developers to turn their projects over to final users may be limited by an exaggerated public perception of risk associated with remediated brownfields. Residential redevelopments may be particularly vulnerable.28 3.3.8 Industry-Wide Economies of Scale in Institutional Development The decision of each developer over potential projects does not take into account the collective impact of increased brownfield development by everyone on costs of remediation to the industry as a whole. Remediation becomes cheaper as the volume of projects collectively carried out by redevelopers increases. Ideally, higher industry volume leads to the development of professions and specialist firms who lower costs. In turn, the existence of new professions improves the ability to provide standardized environmental insurance products, permitting even lower costs through the diversification of risk. The burden of insurance may also shift from specialized brownfield insurance products to more general forms of professional insurance, such as that carried by engineers and architects. Further economies of scale may be realized where governments standardize their environmental assessment and regulatory regimes to permit more common approaches to assessment and more standardized insurance products. 3.3.9 Tax System Impediments An impediment may be defined as a feature of the tax system that is causing inefficient behaviour, in this case with respect to brownfield redevelopment. Correcting it involves structural change to the system and may not necessarily involve reduced tax revenue or expenditure. Deductibility of Remediation Expenses A key example is the treatment of remediation expenses. Owners of Canadian brownfields may treat remediation expenses as a cost, tax deductible in the year incurred. However, redevelopers of brownfields must capitalize the expense as part of their improvements to the land, and then spread the deduction of the expense over many years. The same expenditure receives two different treatments depending on who carries it out. This dual treatment is not unusual in the tax system since it reflects the different nature of the business of land owning versus land developing. However, in the case of brownfields it has special impact. Since the landowner receives the more favourable tax the onus is on them to undertake remediation of contaminants on the land. However, such remediation must be preceded by environmental assessment to identify the contaminants. Landowners are unlikely to undertake such assessments in the absence of a sealed deal on redevelopment, since, as noted 27 28 ICF Consulting and E.P. Systems Group (1999) See discussion of stigma and impact on property values in Section 3.1 of this paper. Hara Associates 18 above, the confirmation of contaminants could trigger regulatory requirements for clean-up. Thus, the landowners cannot be expected to undertake the expense – shifting the burden to the redeveloper. However, the redeveloper faces a market failure in access to capital (discussed above), particularly in the early remediation phases of a project. The forced deferral of tax deduction to future years compounds the impact of capital market failure by cutting into cash available in the early phases. The result is a further disincentive to undertake brownfield redevelopment. Federal and Provincial Liens Brownfields are more likely than other sites to be abandoned by their owners or surrendered to the municipalities through default on taxes. Municipalities then seek buyers for the land. However, federal and provincial liens on the brownfield land survive bankruptcy and tax sale. Any new owner must pay them. For some brownfield sites this will mean that a new owner/redeveloper cannot be found, leaving the lien unpaid and the land un-restored. For these cases, perpetuating the lien is inefficient, since it blocks redevelopment while not generating any revenue recovery for the government. 4 KEY FEATURES OF AN EFFECTIVE BROWNFIELDS STRATEGY The preceding analysis permits identification of two key features of an effective brownfields redevelopment strategy. 29 • Strategic measures should address both risk and financial incentives. While a variety of significant market failures have occurred as result of the current frameworks for civil and regulatory risk, correcting these alone would not achieve full realization of the benefits available from redevelopment of Tier 2 land. The value of third party wealth creation would still not be included in the decisions of private sector redevelopers. Available literature suggests that the magnitude of these benefits is significant. Impact on neighbouring property values captures only part of this wealth creation, yet it has been estimated by various studies as on the order of 10% for commercial property and 30% for residential. One study estimated the ratio of property value benefits to remediation costs as in excess of 13 to one.29 To introduce this factor into private decision-making, some form of financial incentives is needed. Text box 4.1 illustrates this point. • Project-by-project assessments required. To effectively deliver financial incentives, whether as low-interest loans or outright grants, a strategy will require components that assess the need for incentives on a project-by-project basis. The alternatives, such as broad rules-based tax credits have two drawbacks if used exclusively: o Dilution by Tier 1 lands. It is difficult to establish simple rules that will automatically distinguish between Tier 1 lands and Tier 2 lands. Tier 1 lands would be developed with or without assistance, so financial assistance for them increases the cost to the public purse without adding any additional brownfield redevelopment. o Excessive redistribution. It can be shown that, in general, a fixed subsidy applied to all brownfields that is big enough to make redevelopment of all See Section 3.1 of this document. Hara Associates 19 Tier 2 land profitable to the private sector, will also tend to be at least as large as the net additional wealth available to society from Tier 2 land. Thus, a blanket subsidy under a fixed rule is either too small to achieve the desired result, or risks transferring all the benefits to developers, while saddling the public with both the cost of the subsidy and the cost of administering the program. In brief, transfers to Tier 1 lands as well as Tier 2 will dilute the effectiveness fixed rules; and there is a risk of transferring the entire social benefit of redevelopment to the redeveloper, at the expense and administrative cost borne by the taxpayer. Text Box 4.1: Need for Instruments to Address both Cost and Benefits Related Market Failures Building on Text Box 2.1, the figure below shows that addressing cost-related market failures alone is not enough to realize all the opportunities represented by Tier 2. At best, resolving risk issues and other costbased market failures would lower developer costs to the dotted line, “Costs without Market Failure”. Private sector developers would then expand development of brownfields to point D only. The addition of financial incentives to reflect positive impacts on third parties could raise perceived benefits as high as the dotted line “Commercial Benefits – All Parties”. Combined with the earlier measures addressing risk, the point where costs exceeded benefits for developers would be defined by point B. Point B represents full development of brownfields whose income generation impacts exceeds costs (Tier 2). $/Hectare Cost to Developer C Cost Without Market Failures Combined Commercial and Social Benefits B A Commercial Benefits All Parties Risk Controls Alone Risk Control & Incentives Tier 2 Commercial Benefits To Developer Brownfield Hectares Hara Associates 20 5 RANKING EFFECTIVENESS OF INDIVIDUAL POLICY INSTRUMENTS Policy instruments available to serve a brownfield redevelopment strategy may be divided into these broad categories:30 • • • • • • • • Tax Reform/Incentives. Direct Financial Assistance. Capital Market Interventions. Civil Law Reform. Regulation. Information. Institutional Development. Direct Redevelopment by Government. Within each of these categories there are many variations. This section discusses the common variations, identifies the most relevant market failures they address, and ranks their individual effectiveness as High, Medium or Low. Where relevant, results of a preliminary review of available literature on Canadian and U.S. experience are reported. Findings are summarized in a table at the end of each sub-section. The instruments recommended in the NRTEE brownfields strategy are indicated in the Policy Instrument column by recommendation number. A consolidated table is provided in Appendix B. Effectiveness is rated on a qualified basis for the best-case application. For example, if applied indiscriminately, many instruments would result in giving public support to Tier 1 lands, land which would have been redeveloped with or without government intervention. Thus, effectiveness ratings for some instruments are qualified for the case where there is effective project-by-project screening to focus on Tier 2 lands, and that project assessments operate on the philosophy of providing only what is needed to make a project viable and attractive for redevelopment. 5.1 Tax Reform/Incentives Features of the tax system that are impediments to brownfield development may be corrected or modified. Additionally, financial incentives such as tax credits may be delivered through the tax system. Two impediments in the Canadian tax system were identified in Section 3 of this paper, deductible remediation expenses and tax liens. 30 The focus is on intervention approaches, rather than on methods of financing those interventions. Not within the scope of this paper is the variety of innovative methods of raising funds to support brownfield redevelopment strategies. These range from simply accessing available economic development funds for urban areas to more elaborate approaches. For example, tax-increment financing is an approach where incremental property tax revenues generated by redevelopment are pledged to support a bond issue or other financial instrument. Hara Associates 21 Allowing Deductibility of Remediation Expenses Redevelopers would be allowed to deduct remediation expenses in the year they are incurred, addressing the impediment discussed in Section 3 of this paper. This is potentially highly costeffective since it only involves deferring tax revenue rather than reducing it.31 However, there is a need for controls to avoid abuse – for example, one would not want every excavation by a developer to be treated as remediation soil removal. U.S. experience suggests that eligibility rules need to be simple for this program to work. As noted in Section 3.3.6 above, the U.S. EPA experienced a low uptake of its program for threeyear expensing of clean-up costs, partly due to procedural delays. Possible simple rules could include the requirement eligible costs be associated with an environmental assessment, or a limit on the percentage of total redevelopment expenses that may be deducted with respect to a given property. Tax forgiveness Historical taxes owing on lands, such as federal liens, may be forgiven. In appropriate cases, such forgiveness costs nothing, since the lien is not collectable if no one is willing to take ownership of the land. The disadvantage is that this cannot be applied effectively on a rules basis – it must be incorporated into a project-by-project assessment. Tax credits Beyond the removal of impediments, the tax system may be used as a delivery mechanism for the financial incentives needed to fully realize Tier 2 redevelopment opportunities (see Section 4). An advantage of delivering assistance through the tax system is that it enables a rules-based approach that creates an entitlement that redevelopers can count on, without concern over bureaucratic approval processes or delays. For example, a tax credit on remediation expenses might reduce taxes payable by an amount equal to that spent on brownfield remediation. The disadvantage of a rules-based approach like a tax-credit is the difficulty in constructing a rule that discriminates between Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 brownfields. Canada’s previous history on tax credits, such as the former Research & Development tax credit, indicates how the cost of a program may get out of hand by being applied to too wide a set of claimants. Tax credits are used by a number of U.S. states.32 Massachusetts has a five percent state investment tax credit. The program is not specific to brownfields, but covers designated areas heavy in brownfields. Ohio gives the lesser of ten percent of clean-up costs or $500K. Ohio’s program is also limited by area and requires participation in the state’s Voluntary Cleanup Program – effectively screening on a project-by-project basis. 31 32 There is still some cost since it increases government financing requirements. IFC Consulting (1999). Hara Associates 22 Pre-qualification of Land One potential remedy would be to establish a national registry of land pre-qualified for eligibility as Tier 2 brownfield land (the process would have to exclude Tier 1 and Tier 3). A pre-qualified list of land would restrict the risks of excessive tax credits. It would also allow drawing a distinction between historical pollution (occurring from land-use prior to environmental legislation) and on-going pollution. Historically polluted land for which there has been little interest in redeveloping could be treated separately, also avoiding undermining the principle of polluter-pays. This approach would also permit improved targeting and effectiveness of other policy instruments. The qualification of land could also be limited in quantity, permitting a regional balance in eligible land according to provincial allocations within the federal tax system. With pre-qualified land, or a similar rules-based restrictive mechanism, the effectiveness of tax credits would be high. Without a fixed base, established in advance by clear rules, effectiveness would be low. The major U.S. example of pre-qualified land is the EPA’s National Priority List of land for clean-up under the Superfund. However, this list targets the worst-case polluted land (Tier 3) and is opposite in intent to identification of Tier 2 lands. Landowners would prefer not to be on the National Priority List, even though it offers eligibility for some federal assistance, due to the aggressive/punitive consequences of the Superfund legislation. Quebec’s Revi-Sols program has been relatively successful in achieving a quick start in enrolled brownfields project. Part of this success has been credited to the advance identification of brownfield land by the City of Montreal: "The rapid pace at which the funds were used in Montreal is explained partly by the fact that the city was ready and had made the effort to characterize several of the properties it owned, which allowed it to submit applications right at the start of the program".33 Tax Abatements Available tax abatement instruments include abatements of property taxes, development charges, planning fees, etc. Tax abatements are typically a municipal level tool to influence land development. These have the potential to be highly effective if applied selectively on a projectby-project basis Abatements and forgiveness of various forms are widely used by U.S. states on a project-byproject basis as part of their Voluntary Cleanup Programs.34 Wisconsin, for example, removes tax arrears from brownfield sites so as to make them more commercially attractive.35 33 M. Beaulieu (2002) See the EPA’s Voluntary Cleanup Programs web-site at http://www.epa.gov/superfund/states/stsi/vol.htm 35 Bartsch, Charles (2001). “Brownfields Financing Basics: Making the Numbers Add Up.” Presented at the Brownfields 2001 Conference, Chicago, IL, September 24, 2001. (Deck) Washington: Northeast Midwest Institute. 34 Hara Associates 23 Table 5.1: Effectiveness of Tax Reforms/Incentives Policy Instrument Deductible Remediation Expenses. (NRTEE Rec 1.1) Allows redevelopers to deduct remediation costs as a current expense, rather than capitalizing as part of redevelopment costs. The tax benefit is moved to the year the expense is made, rather than spread over future years. Tax Credits. Providing $ through tax reductions matching expenditures on remediation of brownfields. Abatements. Includes abatements of property taxes, development charges, planning fees, etc. Tax Forgiveness. (NRTEE Rec 1.2) Historical taxes owing on lands, such as federal liens, may be forgiven. 5.2 Most Relevant Market Failures Tax system impediments Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields High - when combined with simple rules to limit abuse – such as a percentage cap on share of expenses, or professional certification of requirements. Third party wealth impacts Low-Medium. If unrestricted, credits could go to Tier 1 sites High. If restricted to land pre-qualified as Tier 2, and for historical pollution only. High. If applied on a project specific as-needed basis. Infrastructure, transportation, and municipal services cost savings. Tax system impediments High. If applied on a project specific as-needed basis. Liens may be worthless if land not redeveloped. Application limited to where liens exist. Direct Financial Assistance Grants or equivalent financial support may be delivered directly, usually on a project-by-project basis. As discussed in Section 4, the project-by-project approach is important to avoid diluting the impact of funds with Tier 1 or Tier 3 land, and to provide only sufficient funds to make the redevelopment project attractive. Grants for Remediation Grants may be given to assist site assessment and remediation. One advantage of this instrument is that it targets grant money at early stages of a project, where access to capital is the most restricted. It also lowers the initial barriers for private redevelopers to carry out feasibility assessments, and limits assistance to activities that should likely be required in any event. The assessment phase alone reduces information asymmetries, so that the status of the land is shared and known. Combined with remediation, the result is to help level the playing field between greenfields and brownfields for municipal growth. Québec’s Revi-Sol program shares cost of site assessment and remediation of bona-fide redevelopment projects. It has had strong participation within the province. U.S. experience suggests that grants for remediation may not be very attractive for brownfield owners unless linked with broader programs. EPA Assessment Grants support inventorying, assessment, and planning, and clean-up related to brownfield sites. Since its inception, the EPA’s Brownfields Program claims it has contributed over $280 million in pilots and grants. However, U.S. Office of the Inspector General found in 2000 that most of the funds transferred or committed to local programs had either not be been spent or been spent on activities other Hara Associates 24 than remediation. “In the (program’s) limited history, four pilots have issued five loans and only one clean-up has been completed.”36 Grants are also used by many states, but only as small adjuncts to other programs. Overall, within the scale of U.S. resourcing, grants are not a significant part of state programs (ICF Consulting, 1999). Grants for Redevelopment Projects Grants may also be given to assist redevelopment projects more broadly. Here, the project-byproject screening is very important in order to screen out Tier 1 and Tier 3 brownfields. Without such screening, there is the risk that public funds could be unwittingly provided to Tier 1 brownfields, the ones that would have been redeveloped anyways. This risk is great since the definition of brownfield is potentially quite loose. Virtually all urban land has been polluted to some degree by prior use. A useful threshold for grant awards is to consider the direct infrastructure savings generated for the municipality by the use of brownfields over greenfields (See Section 3.1). The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s Brownfield Economic Development Initiative (BEDI) grants are more flexible than EPA grants. They can be used for all phases from clean-up to construction, including redevelopment of petroleum sites. $25 million in grants was available for fiscal year 2001.37 BEDI grants have been used successfully in Camden, NJ, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, Syracuse, New York, and Lorain, Ohio.38 Table 5.2: Effectiveness of Direct Financial Assistance Policy Instrument Grants -Assessment/Clean-up. (NRTEE Rec 1.5) Money given to support site assessment and remediation. Grants – Project Support. (NRTEE Rec 1.5) Money given directly to support a project either through grants, free services, etc. Most Relevant Market Failures Information asymmetry Capital market failures Third party wealth impacts Third party wealth impacts Infrastructure, transportation, and municipal services cost savings 36 Office of the Auditor General (2000), pg. ii. Spergel (2001) 38 Bartsch (2002) 37 Hara Associates Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields High. If applied on a project-specific basis. Levels playing field with greenfields and delivers funds at early stage where external capital less available. Medium. If applied on project specific as-needed basis. Potential for excessive funding, and inadvertent funding of Tier1 or Tier 3. 25 5.3 Capital Market Interventions Capital market imperfections can be addressed directly through revolving loan funds and other instruments; or indirectly through provision of services such as loan insurance, or other forms of liability insurance. Assumption of Liability One way of correcting capital market failure is to attack it at its root: the joint and several liability for civil claims and regulatory orders (See Section 3.3). Private contractual mechanisms exist to bypass this problem, but face difficulties such as the need to rely on solvency of parties over time. If government takes on the liability through a contacting process, either through the sale of land or by acting as insurer, then lenders may feel this problem is addressed. While elegant in concept, this policy instrument has high risks in execution. Governments are typically not experienced in administration of these kinds of risks, even when they reinsure with private insurance companies.39 There is the risk that providing these guarantees will initially be regarded as “free”, until the mounting liability becomes noted by credit markets and the cost of borrowing begins to rise. Remediation & Project Loans Another way of addressing capital market failure is for government to lend money. Remediation loans are the most limited and targeted approach – money is lent for the purposes of assessment and remediation. This delivers capital to a project at early stages, where market access to capital is the most problematic. As with remediation grants, an issue in program design is ensuring a reasonable uptake rate by eligible parties through simple and quick processing, and linking with a broader package of assessment and assistance. Loans may also be provided for redevelopment projects as a whole. In this event there is a stronger requirement to screen projects to target Tier 2 brownfields. However, the consequences of poor screening are of less concern than with grants, as long as projects are screened for solvency so that there is a reasonable expectation of loans being repaid. Under the Brownfields Cleanup Revolving Loan Fund (BCRLF), the U.S. EPA offers loans in partnership with state and local agencies. These cover clean-up costs exceeding the appraised value on which the borrower's primary financing is based.40 Similar programs are offered by Delaware, New Jersey, Minnesota, Ohio and other jurisdictions, often linked to broader regional economic development programs. Loan Guarantees A more indirect method of solving capital market access is to provide loan guarantees. 39 Meyer & Yount (1999) See the EPA Brownfields http://www.epa.gov/swerosps/bf/rlflst.htm 40 Cleanup Revolving Hara Associates Loan Fund Pilots web-site at 26 Depending on the specific provision for co-insurance, this can place responsibility for discriminating between high and low risk projects on the banks and other lending institutions, who may be more efficient at this than government. The effectiveness of loan guarantees rests on the efficiency of government administrators in acting as loan officers, or designing appropriate co-insurance structures to ensure that the actual lenders do not lose their incentives for discriminating properly between the commercial risks of alternative projects. As with the assumption of liability, governments do not typically have the invested institutional skills to be good managers of risk. A possible exception for Canada is the government-owned Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), discussed below under mortgage insurance. The U.S. Small Business Administration 7(a) Loan Guarantee Program provides guarantees of up to $1 million for environmental clean-up projects. Numerous states, including Florida and Oregon, also offer loan guarantees to help promote brownfield redevelopment, but on a limited basis. The Oregon program is limited to clean-up costs.41 The Florida program is more general, but guarantees only 10% of the loan.42 Mortgage Insurance Mortgage insurance is a specific form of loan guarantee that may be offered to real estate projects for a fee. It is a common financial instrument available from the private financial sector that allows lenders to spread some of their risk, especially on larger projects. The relevant property is pledged as collateral. If the loan defaults, the insurer pays the lender and may take over the pledged property to try to recover the cost. In the case of brownfields, the offering of mortgage insurance would remove much of the concern that lenders have over civil and regulatory risk, since the risk would be transferred to the insurer. However, for these same reasons, private mortgage insurers are reluctant to insure brownfield projects. A potential role for government is to step into the place of private mortgage insurers. The drawbacks to brownfield mortgage insurance by government are the same as for other mortgage guarantees discussed above. The chief challenge is having the necessary institutional skills. Beyond the EPA clean-up loans, in the literature reviewed by this study there was no evidence available to suggest that public mortgage insurance is used as a brownfield intervention tool in the United States. Canada however, has the federally owned CMHC, whose main activities include mortgage insurance in both residential and commercial markets. The CMHC is uniquely situated to correct capital market imperfections in lending to brownfields. A major disincentive for lenders is the “regulatory risk”, the risk of retroactive future clean-up requirements by government. Lenders will experience this risk if they acquire the property through default on the mortgage. Mortgage insurers can take this risk off the lenders’ hands, but then face the same problem themselves. As a government agency itself, the CMHC can take a more risk-neutral approach to assessing 41 See the State of Oregon Loan Guarantee web-site at http://www.econ.state.or.us/businessfinance/loanguar.htm State of Florida (2002). See also http://www.dep.state.fl.us/waste/quick_topics/publications/wc/brownfields/Incentives/loanproc.pdf 42 Hara Associates 27 mortgage re-insurance, since it is would effectively be taking back into government a risk created by government. While CMHC mortgage insurance is intended to be self-financing, the ultimate backing of government places it in a better position to acquire this kind of risk, and to offer mortgage re-insurance at rates reflective of greater risk-neutrality.43 Lender liability limits Another approach to breaking the link between civil and regulatory risk and capital market failure is to remove or reduce the liability of lenders. As discussed in Section 3.3, the joint and several provisions of current liability law in Canada render a lender vulnerable to being entirely responsible for claims on a project, especially if they acquire an ownership role in property through default on a loan. The legal structure might therefore be altered so that lenders, especially those who assume control of land after mortgage defaults, are protected from regulatory and/or civil liability from pollution and clean-up requirements. Such provisions can be effective in increasing the willingness of lenders to finance brownfield redevelopment projects. However, the question of limiting regulatory risk should be considered separately from limitations on risk for civil claims. Alteration to the common law provisions for civil liability may have significant consequences in the strategic behaviour of others that can even lead to increased pollution (see discussion under civil law reform below). Limitations on civil claims are also potentially redistribute income significantly from potential claimants (such as people suffering long term illnesses from environmental poisoning) and the parties that would otherwise be held liable. U.S. federal and state programs often offer lenders relief from regulatory clean-up requirements. For example U.S. EPA’s CERCLA (Superfund) limits liability of “innocent landowners” such as lenders who take possession of collateral. However, U.S. programs typically do not address civil liability that may be borne by such lenders. The Canadian federal government is currently considering similar forms of lender protection for lenders to nuclear power generation facilities in order to overcome similar lender concerns about joint and several liability for environmental clean-up. These issues have arisen partly out of provincial efforts to privatize electrical power generation. 5.4 Civil Law Reform Civil law may be modified to address liability concerns that generate market failure in insurance and capital markets. The implications of any alteration to the rules of liability established by common law should be considered carefully, since this is a fundamental framework within which the private sector operates. U.S. federal and state programs commonly have provisions to address regulatory risk, but are silent on civil law and liability. Thus, time limits, proportionate liability, and transferability provisions in U.S. legislation are intended to reduce the disincentive effects that strong 43 Speaking pragmatically, the CMHC is as vulnerable as any other mortgage insurer to regulatory risk on specific projects. However, in the event of systematic and arbitrary regulatory action across projects, the CMHC has avenues for intra-government and inter-government representation that differ from private companies. Hara Associates 28 Table 5.3: Effectiveness of Capital Market Interventions Policy Instrument Assumption of Liability. Through individual project agreements, Governments can assume the liability for future civil and regulatory risk once given remediation requirements are met. Remediation Loans. Loans may be for assessment and remediation (NRTEE Rec 1.4). Most Relevant Market Failures Regulatory & civil risk Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure. Lack of access to capital Project Loans. (NRTEE Rec 1.4) Through devices such as revolving funds, low interest loans may be provided. Funds “revolve,” by using loan repayments (principal and interest) to provide new loans. Loan Guarantees. As an alternative to direct lending – a portion or all of loans to projects may be guaranteed. Lack of access to capital Mortgage Insurance. (NRTEE Rec 1.3) A specific form of loan guarantee where the loan is secured by the land being redeveloped. Lack of access to capital. Insurance market failure. Lender liability limits. Lenders, especially those who assume control of land after mortgage defaults, are protected from regulatory and/or civil liability from pollution and clean-up requirements. (NRTEE Recs 2.2, 2.3) Lack of access to capital. Regulatory & civil risk. Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure. Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields Low. Public institutions do not manage this form of accumulated risk well. As the accumulated risk mounts, public cost of borrowing is affected. High. If applied on a project specific, as-needed basis, and in combination with other measures. Access to capital is delivered early in project where market failure is greatest. However, administrative costs can be a significant deterrent to applicants if a stand-alone program. High. If applied on project-specific, as-needed basis. The subsidized interest rates provide modest financial support, while overcoming a key market failure. Medium. As with assumption of liability, public bodies do not manage this form of accumulated risk well. If a high % of a loan is guaranteed, then one is effectively making the loan directly with weakened due diligence. If a low % of loan is guaranteed, then the impact on the project is weak. High. In Canada, there is a market making institution in the form of the CMHC that has the ability to manage portfolio risk, and ensure appropriate degrees of coinsurance and precaution by primary lenders. High. Removes a major barrier for mortgage lenders, who might otherwise find themselves full bearers of civil and regulatory risk in the event of loan default – removing the value of land as collateral. regulatory laws, such as CERCLA (Superfund) have on the desire for redevelopers and lenders to involve themselves with brownfields. Time limits A time limit may be placed on how long someone may be held liable after publicly approved remediation has taken place. This allows closure of risk at least in terms of time. The quantity of claims and the double-counting aspects of joint and several liability are not addressed by fixing time limits. To carry this out effectively requires the establishment of a framework for registering public notice on particular parcels of land. The key measure here is alteration or exemption from the common law governing “discoverability”. To achieve a time limit, the clock must start ticking at some point whether a claimant has had reasonable opportunity to discover the damage or not. Hara Associates 29 As discussed in Section 3.3, a significant cause of market failure for brownfields is the infinite period under which claims may be made for historic pollution. Without a time limit to risk, new parties are reluctant to become involved with brownfield projects and it is difficult to arrange insurance. Proportionate Liability Liability can be limited to a party’s role with respect to the source of pollution. In the current regime a minor player may bear the whole cost of a claim. The potential effectiveness of proportionate liability is high. It allows new parties, such as redevelopers to enter picture accountable only for their own actions, not historical acts of others. It makes risks more knowable and controllable, as each party becomes responsible only for their own actions. In this context, the lack of time limit on liability would be less of a concern for brownfield redevelopers. Transferability of Liability Parties may pay others to take on the full liability for future claims. For example, a landowner may pay a redeveloper or a specialist firm in land remediation to assume full risk. This is possible under private contract law at present. Legislation would make the difference that, if the receiving party met certain conditions of financial depth, law would protect the transfer of liability. Subsequently, if the party acquiring liability were unable to pay a claim, the original holder of the liability would still be free from obligation to pay. This instrument is potentially very effective in promoting given brownfields. Present owners of unremediated brownfields receive a large incentive to pursue sale and redevelopment since it would free them from the ongoing risk of brownfield ownership. The cost of this measure is borne by future claimants (health claims, wrongful death, loss of property use) who may find that the limited class of defendants unable to meet the claims made. The effectiveness of this instrument varies depending on whether it is being considered as a general reform to civil law, or a government program administered by exception. General Reform to Civil Law. A disadvantage of transferability as a general reform is the significant risks of strategic behaviour by private sector agents that could lead to greater pollution and an increased number of brownfields. Some examples of possible strategic impacts: • Strategy by Current Owner. A land owning polluter can escape liability by capitalizing a shell company sufficient to do clean-up to current standards and meet other tests of solvency, and then transfer the land and future liability entirely to that company. In short, the cost of pollution is reduced to the cost of current clean-up. This leaves unanswered the unknown future risks from contaminants and clean-up methods that science has not yet revealed, but we know on average they are there. This means that future civil claims may not be covered, and there may be insufficient resources among liable parties to meet future regulatory clean-up orders. While “regulatory risk” of retroactive clean-up orders represents a barrier to brownfield development, it also represents real costs of pollution that will emerge in the future as the consequences of our actions manifest themselves. The longer-term impact of allowing binding transfer of liability is that polluting and Hara Associates 30 cleaning-up may become more financially attractive and feasible then pollution prevention – thus perpetuating the bad habits of the past. Requiring financial depth on the part of anyone receiving transfer of liability is not a feasible solution. The point of risk is that the large claims will only fall on some people. Making everyone carry financial depth to answer a large potential civil claims and regulatory orders would replicate the financial barriers that the policy is trying to remove. • Strategic Response by Market System. The same strategy as noted above can occur without any participant having deliberate bad intentions. Following the enabling of binding transferability of liability, entrepreneurs may arise who will create companies to accept these liabilities for a fee. These companies may meet desirable financial requirements at the time of transfer, but have their status change later on. This can happen systematically since holding companies may change hands and it is typical of entrepreneurs to sell such companies once the transactions are complete. If financial assets are sitting idle, they will likely be trimmed over time or transferred to other uses and companies. • Higher Environmental Risk-Taking. By making the consequences of contamination easier to handle for present owners of land, the balance between cost and risk in the management of manufacturing processes is altered, increasing the likelihood that manufacturers under financial pressure may run greater risks in the environmental management of their processes, with the aggregate impact of less pollution prevention, and more-clean-up when risks are realized in some cases. A relevant example of the second point above is the recent Canadian experience regulating PCBs. By their nature, PCB’s are found in containers such as electrical transformers, fluorescent light ballasts etc. This makes liability for them literally transferable from one owner to another since they can be physically transported. Once PCB’s were regulated as a toxic substance, owners of PCB items were required to store them until provision could be made for disposal (a long-term issue not yet resolved). There arose companies whose business was to assume control of the PCBs and store them. Later, some of these companies fell upon hard times (to put the story in the best light) and did not adequately protect the storage sites. One result was one of Canada’s largest environmental disasters: in 1988 a poorly maintained PCB warehouse in St. Basil le Grande, Québec (south of Montreal), caught fire, releasing toxic smoke from 1,300 M.T. of PCB’s, displacing 3,500 people, and leaving an expensive clean-up challenge that was assumed by the Québec Ministry of the Environment. The above examples represent some of the potential systemic responses to shifts in the civil liability regime. Given the lack of other jurisdictional experience in this area, it is likely that consultation with stakeholders in the broader legal community and regulatory community should be undertaken before implementing such changes. Transferability as a Government Program. A different case can be made where the transfer of liability is conditional on the land being certified a brownfield, and confirmation of completed remediation and redevelopment plans. Government screening and validation limit the negative consequences of the above private sector responses. Negative consequences could further be reduced by limiting eligibility to land whose contamination originated prior to a set date (related to the enactment of environmental laws), and/or requiring financial provisions to ensure new Hara Associates 31 parties had reasonable means to answer any future damage claims arising from the historical contamination. The net effect of such provisions would be to make transferability of liability an exception for the cases in question, rather than a general change in regime. Table 5.4: Effectiveness of Civil Law Reform Policy Instrument Time limits. (NRTEE Rec 2.3) A time limit may be placed on how long someone may be held liable after publicly approved remediation has taken place. This allows closure of risk at least in terms of time. Proportionate Liability. Liability can be limited to a party’s role with respect to the source of pollution. In the current regime a minor player may bear the whole cost of a claim. (NRTEE Rec 2.3, 2.4) Transferability. (NRTEE Rec 2.1) Parties may pay others to take on the full liability for future claims. For example, a landowner may pay a redeveloper or a specialist firm in land remediation to assume full risk. 5.5 Most Relevant Market Failures Insurance market failure Civil risk Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure Civil risk Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure Civil risk Lack of access to capital Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields Medium. With assistance of land registry and public notice process. Shifts burden onto claimants after time limit. Places time horizon on risk but leaves quantity of claim open for all parties. High. Allows new parties, such as redevelopers to enter picture accountable only for their own actions, not historical acts of others. Makes risks more knowable and controllable. Low. (when a general change to civil law) Potentially very effective in promoting given brownfields, but opens the way for strategic behaviour that makes future pollution and clean-up more attractive than pollution prevention. Medium to High. (When administered by exception as a government program). Potentially very effective in motivating brownfield redevelopment but may require unique government program costs that might not be shared with other policy tools. Regulation Given the existence of an environmental regulatory framework already, common approaches range from providing relief to risk of future regulatory clean-up requirements, to allowing flexible clean-up standards based on restrictions of future land use. Force Majeure Force Majeure is the aggressive public pursuit of compulsory site assessments and subsequent clean-ups through the Canadian federal and provincial regulatory framework. The disadvantage of this approach is that it increases the market failures stemming from regulatory risk by increasing the size of that risk, putting a chill on anyone considering involving themselves voluntarily in redevelopment of a brownfield. Another disadvantage is that it requires substantial funding, since the holders of land may not have sufficient funds to carry out the needed remediation after assessments are complete. This is especially true if governments feel compelled to undertake remediation on an urgent basis and then seek recovery of costs afterwards. The force majeure approach is exemplified by the U.S. federal approach through the Superfund, financed through a tax on the petroleum and chemical industries fed into a trust fund. However, the focus of the Superfund is on the most polluted land (Tier 3). The chill on development of Hara Associates 32 less polluted lands (Tier 2) makes it counter-productive in using the efficiencies of market forces to redevelop brownfields. The more recent U.S. promotion of State Voluntary Cleanup programs, and other incentive and liability-limiting programs reflect efforts to counteract the chilling effect on brownfield redevelopment generated by the Superfund. Certificates of Compliance Certificates of Compliance are issued as part of Government approval of remediation efforts, usually accompanied with a commitment not to take further regulatory or administrative action except under specific circumstances. These certificates are effective in reducing regulatory risk ex-post of meeting current regulatory requirements. Although civil risk remains, the larger perceived risk by redevelopers is from government, which has unlimited funds to pursue cases. A disadvantage of this policy instrument is that it leaves unanswered the question of who will pay for future clean-up if it is later determined this is needed. As discussed in Section 3.1, such events will occur, since our understanding of the impact of pollutants continues to increase, and given the political trend towards greater environmental responsibility. This disadvantage is mitigated by leaving civil risk untouched. If there is future harm to human health or other landuses, then the possibility of civil court action may still motivate further clean-up. This covers the worst cases for health claims, but does not address the loss of coverage for larger social and environmental impacts of pollutants (for example, suits on behalf of endangered species can only take place within a narrow legislative base, where such laws exist). One possible answer to this is a compulsory insurance fund (discussed below). In the U.S., “comfort letters” are usually issued in conjunction with Voluntary Cleanup Programs (VCPs), which indicate that the EPA is satisfied with the level of clean-up undertaken. State programs may also undertake more explicit protection, such as a "no further action" letter or "certificate of completion". However, these state commitments do not affect the EPA's authority. The EPA’s agreements with states typically include language similar to the following: “Although nothing in this MOA constitutes a release from liability under applicable Federal law, generally EPA does not anticipate taking removal or remedial action at sites involved in this Voluntary Cleanup Program unless EPA determines that there may be an imminent and substantial endangerment to public health, welfare, or the environment.”44 Flexible Standards In exchange for restrictions on future land use, sites are allowed to meet remediation standards appropriate to intended land use. For example, future industrial sites may not be required to meet the same standards as for a residential development. Flexible standards may include on-site stabilization of contaminants and on-going control measures that must be monitored. 44 United States EPA (1996). “Memorandum: Approaches for Regional Relations with State Interim Voluntary Cleanup Programs”. November 14, 1996. See http://www.epa.gov/swerosps/bf/pdf/vcp.pdf Hara Associates 33 Flexible standards make redevelopment feasible where it would not otherwise be, but may create ongoing institutional requirements for monitoring of containment procedures etc. Government may also have an ongoing cost of monitoring or auditing such arrangements. Flexible standards are a common feature of U.S. state programs. For example, in the Voluntary Clean-Up Programs of Massachusetts, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, 85% of sites were mitigated to levels other than “background’ or “residential”.45 Public Insurance Funds Public insurance funds are a complement to measures limiting regulatory risk, particularly the issue of certificates of compliance. A compulsory fund is established to pay for clean-ups required after owners/redevelopers are released from responsibility. These Funds are financed by premiums from the people released. A challenge is to set premiums at a realistic level, discriminating appropriately for more and less risky projects. The scheme may apply to regulatory risk and clean-up only, or to civil liability. If extended to civil liability there are potential disadvantages in removing incentives for responsible precautionary behaviour by the insured. The literature review did not identify an example of this type of fund. Table 5.5: Effectiveness of Regulation Policy Instrument Force Majeure. Aggressive public pursuit of site assessments and subsequent clean-ups as required by the regulatory framework. Certificates of Compliance. (NRTEE Rec 2.2, 2.6) Government approval of remediation efforts, usually accompanied with a commitment not to take further regulatory or administrative action except under specific circumstances. Flexible Standards (Site-Specific Assessment). In exchange for restrictions on future land use, allows sites to meet remediation standards appropriate to the land use. May include on-site stabilization of contaminants and ongoing control measures that must be monitored. (NRTEE Rec 2.5) Public Insurance Funds. (NRTEE Rec 2.4) A complement to measures limiting regulatory risk. A compulsory fund to pay for clean-ups required after owners/redevelopers released from responsibility. Financed from premiums from same. 45 Most Relevant Market Failures All cost related market failures. Regulatory Risk Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields Low. This is a Tier 3 strategy, not Tier 2. It requires significant funding since the costs of forced clean-ups may not be fully recoverable from the liable parties. The approach has a chilling effect on any involvement of redevelopers for Tier 2 land since it increases perceived regulatory risk. High. It relieves redevelopers of further regulatory risk. After meeting requirements, they are “done”. Although civil risk remains, the larger perceived risk is from government, which has the funds and instruments to pursue cases. All cost related market failures Medium. With land registry to implement ongoing use restrictions. Makes redevelopment feasible where otherwise not, but creates ongoing institutional requirements for monitoring of containment procedures etc. Regulatory Risk High. If risk controlled through project-by-project screening. A needed complement to certificates of compliance in order to ensure a source of financing clean-ups as new pollutants or toxic effects are discovered. IFC Consulting (1999) Hara Associates 34 5.6 Information Information programs take a variety of forms, ranging from ensuring awareness of the most costeffective technologies; to increasing public understanding of the value of redevelopment; to ensuring that government actors themselves are fully aware and able to make use of available policy instruments. Since systematic lack of information is at the root of some market failures, information programs can be useful policy instruments on their own account. Public Information This is information on social value and safety of brownfield redevelopment delivered to public. This form of information can have an impact on these market failures: • • Stigma and Risk Perception. Public over-estimation of risk associated with remediated land artificially lowers the value at which redeveloped brownfields can be leased or sold. Education can lead to more realistic assessments, and establish positive associations with land recycling and environmental values. Regulatory Delays. Public perception also affects the risk of regulatory delay through zoning hearings and other public processes. Positive associations with environmental values and realistic appreciation of risk can affect the number and form of interventions by public stakeholders. Because real estate development is inevitably a local issue, a constructive context of public understanding and support is important. While all U.S. programs have a public information component, there does not appear to have been thus far a deliberate intent by governments to pursue this as a separate strategic element. Technology Dissemination Lack of knowledge of the most cost-effective remediation practices and brownfield approaches can mean overestimated costs and reduced brownfield development. This is another form of the market failure due to information asymmetries. Such market failure is known to be common when dealing with new technologies, where some are aware and others not.46 The EPA funds pilot projects to facilitate the demonstration of assessment and remediation technologies. In addition, the EPA has a Technology Innovation Office devoted to the facilitation of environmental technology and remediation process demonstration.47 The Office has funded research papers that discuss technical mechanisms to modernize site characterization and cleanup. In addition, the EPA Brownfields Technology Support Centre offers a range of informational and financing services to brownfield redevelopers.48 46 It is difficult to charge a fee for knowledge equal to its value, since the customer cannot appreciate the value without first receiving the full knowledge. 47 See the EPA Technology Innovation Office web-site at http://www.epa.gov/swertio1/ 48 See the Brownfields Technology Support Center at http://www.brownfieldstsc.org/ Hara Associates 35 Training/Capacity Building There are also programs devoted to ensuring public authorities and private sector actors share full and common understanding of the policy instruments and methods available for brownfield redevelopment. These programs leverage the effectiveness of other policy interventions. In addition, they can have a direct impact on some forms of market failure. For example, it has been suggested that a significant contributor to poor markets for environmental risk insurance products is the lack of knowledge by municipal officials responsible for land and risk management (See Section 3.3). In the U.S. a variety of other information services are supported by the EPA and state services, including a number of GIS-based web sites offering brownfield location data and related demographics.49 Table 5.6: Effectiveness of Information Programs Policy Instrument Public information. (NRTEE Rec 3.3) Information on social value and safety of brownfield redevelopment delivered to public. Technology Dissemination. (NRTEE Rec 3.2) Information on most costeffective practices shared among key actors and/or demonstrated in pilot projects Training/Capacity Building. (NRTEE Rec 3.1) Ensuring public and private sector actors share full and common understanding of the policy instruments and methods available for brownfield redevelopment. 5.7 Most Relevant Market Failures Regulatory delays Stigma & risk perception Information asymmetries Regulatory delay Information asymmetries Insurance market failures Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields High. Positive public support can reduce delay in municipal approval processes and increase acceptance of redeveloped sites to live and work in. High. Awareness of feasibility of best practices increases likelihood that redevelopers will at least assess potential projects. High. For example, it has been suggested that a significant contributor to poor markets for environmental risk insurance products is the lack of knowledge by municipal officials responsible for land and risk management. Institutional Development Costs of redevelopment can be lowered through standardized assessment techniques; the promotion of professions and professional practices related to remediation; land registries to support limitations of land use and restrictions or covenants affecting liabilities; etc. This class of policy instrument reflects a response to the available economies of scales that can be unlocked through better institutional frameworks (see economies of scale discussion, Section 3.3). Standards of Practice This form of institutional development involves the development of standards of practice for site assessment and remediation, ideally integrated with regulatory processes and requirements. In addition to reducing regulatory delay, standardized practices also permit the construction of 49 See for example New Jersey’s “i-MapNJ Brownfields” GIS page at map/brownfields/ Hara Associates http://njgeodata4.state.nj.us/i- 36 larger pools of land for insurance purposes, allowing the development of more standardized insurance instruments and lowering the cost of insurance. As practices continue to grow, new professions can emerge and professional practice insurance can take a greater role in meeting brownfield insurance needs. On the side of professional practice, there is current investment in voluntary codes of practice in both the U.S. and Canada. For example, the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) has published Standard Guide for Process of Sustainable Brownfields Redevelopment as well as Standard Practice for Environmental Assessments.50 Similarly, the Canadian Standards Association has published guides on environmental site assessment.51 At present U.S. regulatory practices vary between states, reflecting the diversified nature of EPA programs undertaken in partnership with states. Deed Registration Deed registration is a public system of registering environmental remediation history and related land-use restrictions. This institution is necessary for applying other policy instruments. For example, if there are flexible remediation standards related to restrictions on future land-use, then those restrictions need to be registered in a way that is accessible to future land-owners and purchasers. Another example would be time limits on civil liability for remediated lands. If time limits are applied to lands on a project-by-project basis, then the specific dates and conditions also need to be publicly recorded. Land Pre-Qualification Eligible land for special programs is identified and pre-qualified for assistance before a redeveloper or particular proposal is put forward. An investment in pre-selecting and approving eligible Tier 2 brownfields offers increased effectiveness to other tools. Tax provisions can be restricted to qualified land (see discussion of pre-qualified land and tax credits, Section 5.1 above). Investors can experience a shorter project incubation period with less risk of regulatory delay. Insurers can tailor products to a known pool of land. If the list is limited to historicallycontaminated land only, then special concessions in liability can be made which might otherwise provoke bad behaviour by future polluters if adopted as a general rule. 50 American Society for Testing and Materials (2002). E1984-98 Standard Guide for Process of Sustainable Brownfields Redevelopment. Available for purchase from http://www.astm.org/; American Society for Testing and Materials (2002). E1527-00 Standard Practice for Environmental Site Assessments: Phase 1 Environmental Site Assessment Process. Available for purchase from http://www.astm.org/ 51 Canadian Standards Association (n.d.) Z768 Phase I Environmental Site Assessment. Available for purchase from http://www.csa.ca/; Canadian Standards Association (n.d.) Z769 Phase II Environmental Site Assessment. Available for purchase from http://www.csa.ca/. Hara Associates 37 Table 5.7: Effectiveness of Institutional Development Policy Instrument Standards of Practice. (NRTEE Rec 2.5) Development of standards of practice for site assessment and remediation, ideally integrated with regulatory processes and requirements. Deed registration. A public system of registering environmental remediation history and related land-use restrictions. Land pre-qualification. Programs to prequalify land as eligible for other brownfield redevelopment initiatives. 5.8 Most Relevant Market Failures Regulatory delays Economies of scale Insurance market failures. Regulatory Delays Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields High. In association with use of other policy instruments. Regulatory delays Economies of scale Insurance market failures High. Reduces regulatory delay in processing project proposals and also provides a means to more effectively focus other policy instruments on Tier 2 land. High. As a complement to other policy instruments such as flexible standards of remediation. Direct Redevelopment Government, government agency, or private charity, may assume ownership of the land and undertake its remediation and preparation for resale or development. Private land banks may also be established for this purpose, paralleling the structure of charitable organizations for the preservation of wetlands and rainforests. This approach ties up considerable funds and public initiative for work that could be encouraged on a private basis with greater flexibility by redevelopers. It is antithetical to attempts to utilize the efficiency of markets characterizing a focus on Tier 2 brownfield redevelopment. A U.S. example of government use of this policy instrument is the City of Minneapolis. Minneapolis maintains a Light Industry Land Acquisition Program, spending $5 million per year to acquire, clean-up, and redevelop contaminated industrial sites for re-sale to the private sector. Table 5.8: Effectiveness of Direct Redevelopment Policy Instrument Land reclamation banks. Agencies may be created either publicly or privately to hold brownfields, remediated them, and return them to market. Most Relevant Market Failures All cost related market failures. Effectiveness for Redevelopment of Tier 2 Brownfields Low. This ties up considerable funds and public initiative for work that could be encouraged on a private basis with greater flexibility by redevelopers. A consolidated table of the effectiveness of policy instruments is provided in Appendix B. 6 RANKING POLICY INSTRUMENTS BY GROUP The preceding text assessed the effectiveness of policy instruments on an individual basis. However, the action of these instruments is interdependent and, in some cases, redundant. The design of an effective strategy involves selecting a complementary package of the most effective. Hara Associates 38 As a start, Section 4.0 established two key features of an effective strategy: • • Strategic measures should address both risk and financial incentives in order to fully capture the wealth creation potential of Tier 2 brownfields. Project-by-project assessment is necessary to implement financial incentives, in order to avoid giving money unnecessarily to Tier 1 brownfields, and to ensure that financial assistance shares the benefits between the public and the redeveloper, rather than transferring it all to redevelopers at the taxpayer’s expense. Consistent with the second point, redevelopment of Tier 2 lands will range from brownfields that are marginally unprofitable to those that require significant assistance to motivate the private sector to take an interest. An effective strategy will utilize broad systemic measures to nudge the former into redevelopment and apply increasingly focussed incentives to the latter. From this perspective, effective intervention tools can be ranked in the following groups. Broad Systemic Measures The following tools were found to be effective individually, and provide the highest yield with minimal impact on the public purse. They are focused on correcting market failures leading to developers over-valuing costs or requiring excessive rates of project return due to undiversifiable risks: • • • • • Deductible remediation expenses (qualified by simple limits and eligibility rules). Mortgage insurance for brownfield redevelopment (market making by the CMHC) Lender liability limits Time limits on civil liability Proportionate allocation of civil liability (as opposed to joint and several liability) Project-by-Project Measures Redevelopments that are net-wealth creating, but further from break-even as perceived by the private sector, will require more additional incentive with greater implications for the public purse. To limit these expenditures to Tier 2 land, and on an as-needed basis, implementation would have to be on a project-by-project basis. Ideally this would take place within a framework of co-operation among different levels of government to avoid duplication. Depending on the private sector viability of the project, required assistance might range from providing some assurance limiting future risk of clean-up orders (at the low end), to loans and grants (at the high end of assistance). Measures found to be effective in this group include: • • • • • • Certificates of Compliance & Associated Public Insurance Remediation loans Project loans (e.g. revolving funds etc.) Abatements Tax forgiveness Grants Hara Associates 39 Measures Increasing Leverage Once the most substantive sources of market failure are addressed, there are additional policy tools that increase the effectiveness of other interventions at reasonable cost. This includes better information to consumers, practitioners, and redevelopers, and measures to standardize and develop institutions supporting brownfield redevelopment. Tools identified as effective in this group are: • • • • • • Standards of Practice (in regulation and professional practice) Deed registration Land pre-qualification Public information. Technology dissemination. Training & capacity building. The above sets may be implemented as groups. Jointly they offer the highest level of effective intervention for the redevelopment of brownfields by correcting market failures and harnessing the efficiencies of the private sector. 7 SITUATING THE NRTEE STRATEGY The National Round Table on Environment and the Economy (NRTEE’s) development of a National Brownfield Redevelopment Strategy incorporates the results of consultation among Canadian stakeholders. The experience of stakeholders represents an independent source of wisdom that the analysis in this paper, and other research papers, is intended to serve and complement. NRTEE’s selection of recommendations through the consultation process embodies most of the characteristics suggested by this analysis of market failures. There are measures addressing the market failures emerging from uncontrolled civil and regulatory risk, and measures to deliver financial incentives where required. Systemic delivery of financial incentives is mild (e.g. deductibility of remediation of expenses), with the use of grants and loans reserved for qualifiedlands selected in a context of intergovernmental cooperation. Leverage of the programs is increased through the use of information tools directed at the needs of different stakeholders, and needed institution building. Appendix B of this paper cross-references the generic instruments analysed here with the NRTEE recommendation numbers. There are three aspects of the NRTEE strategy that are uniquely Canadian: • A focus on Tier II lands, rather than Tier III. The United States’ approach is dominated by the EPA’s Superfund – a force majeure approach forcing the clean-up of the worst sites. The U.S. has experienced drawbacks to this approach, particularly increased reluctance of redevelopers and lenders to involve themselves voluntarily with brownfields. The NRTEE strategy is to focus on the most recoverable lands, Tier 2, with positive measures addressing market failures. Hara Associates 40 • • Use of Mortgage Insurance. The central role of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) in market making for real-estate insurance products provides a unique asset for addressing brownfield redevelopment. Focus on Civil Liability. The NRTEE strategy includes significant measures directly addressing the barriers to redevelopment caused by the current civil liability regime. This is not a part of U.S. experience, whose recent state and federal efforts have been focussed on ameliorating the high regulatory risk perceptions created through strong environmental laws such as the Superfund. There is one element of the NRTEE strategy for which this study has raised caution. The proposed transferability of civil liability was found to open risks of strategic behaviour leading to a preference for pollution and clean-up over pollution prevention, and of un-funded civil liability claims. However, the degree of risk is difficult to assess since there is an absence of international experience in this kind of change to civil liability for brownfields. The risks may be addressed during broader consultation with the legal community and other stakeholders during the implementation phases of the Strategy. 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(2001) “A GIS-based decision support system for brownfield redevelopment” Landscape and Urban Planning, (58/2002): 7-23 U.K. Government (2001). “Finance Act www.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts2001/10009-ao.htm. 2001; Chapter 9, Part 2.” U.S. EPA (1996). “Memorandum: Approaches for Regional Relations with State Interim Voluntary Clean-up Programs.” U.S. EPA (1998). “Section 9. Tools for Financing Brownfield Redevelopment.” In Environmental Finance Program: A Guidebook of Financial Tools. Document downloaded from www.epa.gov/efinpage/guidbk98/gbk9.htm U.S. EPA (1998). Handbook of Tools for Managing Federal Superfund Liability Risks at Brownfields and Other Sites. November 1998. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Publication Number EPA 330-B-98-001 U.S. EPA (2002). “International Brownfields Case Study: Emscher Park, Germany.” EPA WebSite http://www.epa.gov/international/urban/brownfields/index.html U.S. EPA (2002). “International Brownfields Case Study: National Groundwork Trust, Birmingham, England.” EPA WebSite http://www.epa.gov/international/urban/brownfields/index.html U.S. EPA (2002). “International Brownfields Case Study: Waterfront Regeneration Trust, Toronto.” EPA WebSite http://www.epa.gov/international/urban/brownfields/index.html U.S. EPA (2002). “International Brownfields Case Study: Westergasfabriek, Amsterdam, Netherlands.” EPA WebSite http://www.epa.gov/international/urban/brownfields/index.html U.S. House of Representatives. (2000) The Reality Behing the Rhetoric: The failures of EPA’s Brownfields Initiative http://com-notes.house.gov/brown/brown.htm Hara Associates Appendix A - 10 U.S. Mayor (2002) “ Major Provisions of H.R. 2869 – The Small Business Liability Relief and Brownfields Revitalisation Act.” U.S. Mayor January 14, 2002 Walters, Jonathan (2002). “A Lesson in Brown.” Governing (May 2002): 12. Weber, Bruce R. (2001). “A Beginning Best Practice Valuation Model: A Presentation for the International Real Estate Society.” Presentation Deck. http://www.marketforesight.com/AcrobatResearch/part6.pdf Weber, Bruce R. (2002). “A Beginning Best Practice Brownfield Valuation Model.” The Appraisal Journal (January 2002): 60-75. Wernstedt, K.; Hersh, R. (1998) “Urban Land Use and Superfund Clearnups” Journal of Urban Affairs (20/4) 459-474 Wright, James G. (1997). Risks and rewards of brownfield redevelopment. Cambridge, MA : Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. Yount Kristen R. (n.d.). Unpublished paper. “Government Involvement with Brownfield Insurance Programs.” Yount, K.R. & Meyer, P.B. (1994) “Bankers, Developers, and New Investment in Brownfield Sites: Environmental Concerns and the Social Psychology of Risk” Economic Development Quarterly (8/4) 338-344 Yount, K.R. (1999) “Environmental Insurance Products Available for Brownfields Redevelopment, 1999.” Northern Kentucky University, Highland Heights, KY Yount, K.R. with help of Meyer, P.B. (1999) “Environmental Insurance Products Available for Brownfields Redevelopment, 1999”, Northern Kentucky University, Highland Heights, KY Yount, Kristen R. (2001). “Limiting Liability with Insurance.” Presented at the First Annual Statewide Brownfields Conference, March 27, 2001. Hara Associates APPENDIX B – SUMMARY TABLE Effectiveness of Commonly Used Policy Instruments for Brownfield Redevelopment Policy Instrument Tax Reforms/Incentives Deductible Remediation Expenses. (NRTEE Rec 1.1) Allows redevelopers to deduct remediation costs as a current expense, rather than capitalizing as part of redevelopment costs. The tax benefit is in the year the expense is made, rather than spread over future years. Tax Credits. Providing $ through tax reductions matching expenditures on remediation of brownfields. Abatements. Includes abatements of property taxes, development charges, planning fees, etc. Tax Forgiveness. (NRTEE Rec 1.2) Historical taxes owing on lands, such as federal liens, may be forgiven. Direct Financial Assistance Grants -Assessment/Cleanup. (NRTEE Rec 1.5) Money given to support site assessment and remediation. Grants – Project Support. (NRTEE Rec 1.5) Money given directly to support a project either through grants, free services, etc. Capital Market Interventions Assumption of Liability. Through individual project agreements, Governments can assume the liability for future civil and regulatory risk once given remediation requirements are met. Remediation Loans. (NRTEE Rec 1.4) Loans may be for assessment and remediation. Project Loans. (NRTEE Rec 1.4) Through devices such as revolving funds, low interest loans may be provided. Funds “revolve,” by using loan repayments (principal and interest) to provide new loans. Loan Guarantees. As an alternative to direct lending – a portion or all of loans to projects may be guaranteed. Most Relevant Market Failures EFFECTIVENESS FOR REDEVELOPMENT Tax system impediments High - when combined with simple rules to limit abuse – such as %cap on share of expenses, or professional certification of requirements. Third party wealth impacts Infrastructure, transportation, and municipal services cost savings. Tax system impediments Low-Medium. If unrestricted, credits could go to Tier 1 sites High. If restricted to land pre-qualified as Tier 2, and for historical pollution only. High. If applied on a project specific as-needed basis. High. If applied on a project specific as-needed basis. Liens may be worthless if land not redeveloped. Application limited to where liens exist. Information asymmetry Capital market failures Third party wealth impacts Third party wealth impacts Infrastructure, transportation, and municipal services cost savings High. If applied on a project specific basis. Levels playing field with greenfields and delivers funds at early stage where external capital less available. Regulatory & civil risk Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure. Lack of access to capital Low. Public institutions do not manage this form of accumulated risk well. As the accumulated risk mounts, public cost of borrowing is affected. Lack of access to capital Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure. Hara Associates Medium. If applied on project specific as-needed basis. Potential for excessive funding, and funding of Tier1 or Tier 3. High. If applied on a project specific, as needed basis, and in combination with other measures. Access to capital is delivered early in project where market failure is greatest. However, administrative costs can be a significant deterrent to applicants if a stand-alone program. High. If applied on project specific, as needed basis. The subsidized interest rates provide modest financial support, while overcoming a key market failure. Medium. As with assumption of liability, public bodies do not manage this form of accumulated risk well. If a high % of a loan is guaranteed, then one is effectively making the loan directly with weakened due diligence. If a low % of loan is guaranteed, then Appendix B - 2 Policy Instrument Most Relevant Market Failures Mortgage Insurance. (NRTEE Rec 1.3) A specific form of loan guarantee where the loan is secured by the land being redeveloped. Lack of access to capital. Insurance market failure. Lender liability limits. (NRTEE Recs 2.2, 2.3) Lenders, especially those who assume control of land after mortgage defaults, are protected from regulatory and/or civil liability for pollution and clean-up. Civil Law Reform Time limits. (NRTEE Rec 2.3) A time limit may be placed on how long someone may be held liable after publicly approved remediation has taken place. This allows closure of risk at least in terms of time. Proportionate Liability. (NRTEE Rec 2.3, 2.4) Liability can be limited to a party’s role with respect to the source of pollution. In the current regime a minor player may bear the whole cost of a claim. Transferability. (NRTEE Rec 2.1) Parties may pay others to take on the full liability for future claims. For example, a landowner may pay a redeveloper or a specialist firm in land remediation to assume full risk. Lack of access to capital. Regulatory & civil risk. Regulation Force Majeure. Aggressive public pursuit of site assessments and subsequent clean-ups as required by the regulatory framework. Certificates of Compliance. (NRTEE Rec 2.2, 2.6) Government approval of remediation efforts, usually accompanied with a commitment not to take further regulatory or administrative action except under specific circumstances. Flexible Standards (Site-Specific Assessment). In exchange for restrictions on future land use, allows sites to meet remediation standards appropriate to the land use. May include on-site stabilization of contaminants and ongoing control measures that must be monitored. (NRTEE Rec 2.5) Public Insurance Funds. (NRTEE Rec 2.4) A complement to measures limiting regulatory risk. A compulsory fund to pay for clean-ups required after owners/redevelopers released EFFECTIVENESS FOR REDEVELOPMENT the impact on the project is weak. High. In Canada, there is a market making institution in the form of the CMHC that has the ability to manage portfolio risk, and ensure appropriate degrees of coinsurance and precaution by primary lenders. High. Removes a major barrier for mortgage lenders, who might otherwise find themselves full bearers of civil and regulatory risk in the event of loan default – removing the value of land as collateral. Insurance market failure Civil risk Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure Civil risk Lack of access to capital Insurance market failure Civil risk Lack of access to capital Medium. With assistance of land registry and public notice process. Shifts burden onto claimants after time limit. Places time horizon on risk but leaves quantity of claim open for all parties. All cost related market failures. Low. This is a Tier 3 strategy, not Tier 2. It requires significant funding since the costs of forced cleanups may not be fully recoverable from the liable parties. The approach has a chilling effect on any involvement of redevelopers for Tier 2 land since it increases perceived regulatory risk. High. It relieves redevelopers of further regulatory risk. After meeting requirements, they are “done”. Although civil risk remains, the larger perceived risk is from government, which has the funds and instruments to pursue cases. Regulatory Risk High. Allows new parties, such as redevelopers to enter picture accountable only for their own actions, not historical acts of others. Makes risks more knowable and controllable. Low. (when a general change to civil law) Potentially very effective in promoting given brownfields, but opens the way for strategic behaviour that makes future pollution and clean-up more attractive than pollution prevention. Medium to High. (When administered by exception as a government program). Potentially very effective in motivating brownfield redevelopment but may require unique government program costs that might not be shared with other policy tools. All cost related market failures Medium. With land registry to implement ongoing use restrictions. Makes redevelopment feasible where otherwise not, but creates ongoing institutional requirements for monitoring of containment procedures etc. Regulatory Risk High. If risk controlled through project-by-project screening. A needed complement to certificates of compliance in order to ensure a source of financing clean-ups as new pollutants or toxic effects are Hara Associates Appendix B - 3 Policy Instrument from responsibility. Financed from premiums from same. Information Public information. (NRTEE Rec 3.3) Information on social value and safety of brownfield redevelopment delivered to public. Technology Dissemination. (NRTEE Rec 3.2) Information on most costeffective practices shared among key actors and/or demonstrated in pilot projects Training/Capacity Building. (NRTEE Rec 3.1) Ensuring public and private sector actors share full and common understanding of the policy instruments and methods available for brownfield redevelopment. Institutional Development Standards of Practice. (NRTEE Rec 2.5) Development of standards of practice for site assessment and remediation, ideally integrated with regulatory processes and requirements. Deed registration. A public system of registering environmental remediation history and related land-use restrictions. Land pre-qualification. Programs to prequalify land as eligible for other brownfield redevelopment initiatives. Direct Redevelopment Land reclamation banks. Agencies may be created either publicly or privately to hold brownfields, remediated them, and return them to market. Most Relevant Market Failures EFFECTIVENESS FOR REDEVELOPMENT discovered. Regulatory delays Stigma & risk perception High. Positive public support can reduce delay in municipal approval processes and increase acceptance of redeveloped sites to live and work in. Information asymmetries High. Awareness of feasibility of best practices increases likelihood that redevelopers will at least assess potential projects. Regulatory delay Information asymmetries Insurance market failures High. For example, it has been suggested that a significant contributor to poor markets for environmental risk insurance products is the lack of knowledge by municipal officials responsible for land and risk management. Regulatory delays Economies of scale Insurance market failures. Regulatory Delays High. In association with use of other policy instruments. Common and integrated standards of practice. Regulatory delays Economies of scale Insurance market failures High. Reduces regulatory delay in processing project proposals and also provides a means to more effectively focus other policy instruments on Tier 2 land. All cost related market failures. Low. This ties up considerable funds and public initiative for work that could be encouraged on a private basis with greater flexibility by redevelopers. Hara Associates High. As a complement to other policy instruments such as flexible standards of remediation. APPENDIX C: NOTE ON ROUGH ESTIMATE OF NATIONAL PUBLIC BENEFITS FOR CANADIAN BROWNFIELD REDEVELOPMENT January 15, 2003 This note is intended to develop a rough order-of-magnitude estimate of the national public benefits for directing future urban growth into the redevelopment of brownfields within Canada’s cities, instead of greenfields on city peripheries. Public benefits are those benefits generated for Canadians in addition to any direct commercial benefits realized by the developers and users of the land. For a full discussion of why there are additional benefits to those realized by private sector agents, please see Market Failures and the Optimal Use of Brownfield Redevelopment Policy Instruments, Hara Associates, 2003.52 This estimate was developed using references close at hand as a result of the 2003 work. It is intended as a rough estimate for working purposes only. Comments on how the accuracy of the estimate can be improved are offered at the end of this note. 1 ESTIMATION METHOD There is very little published work quantifying the benefits and costs of brownfield redevelopment. For Canada, there is only one substantive article published recently by Chris De Sousa, Measuring the public costs and benefits of brownfield versus greenfield development in the Greater Toronto Area. 53 To obtain an estimate of the national benefits to Canada, this note: • • Updates the De Sousa estimates for Toronto to reflect recent work on the impact of brownfield redevelopment on the productivity and wealth generation capability of cities. Projects the revised Toronto estimates to a national level based on Census information for Canadian metropolitan areas. Hara Associates would like to express appreciation to Dr. De Sousa for providing background information and copies of reference materials relevant to the original article. 2 2.1 UPDATING DE SOUSA ESTIMATES FOR TORONTO The De Sousa (2002) Estimates De Sousa (2002) integrated available quantitative estimates on benefits and costs from a variety of sources and applied them in a Canadian brownfields context. Net public benefits were assessed for two hypothetical cases: a commercial brownfield development and a residential brownfield development. In each case, benefits are measured against the alternative case of placing the same number of residents or employees in a typical suburban greenfield project.. 52 Undertaken as a background study to the National Brownfields Redevelopment Strategy by the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE), Ottawa, Canada. 53 Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 2002, volume 29, pages 251-280. Hara Associates Appendix C - 2 Only public benefits and costs were considered, with the intention of “helping policymakers better assess the feasibility of brownfield redevelopment vis-à-vis greenfield”.54 Table 1 below summarizes the De Sousa (2002) estimates in terms of net benefit per hectare of brownfield redeveloped. Benefits were calculated on an annualized basis, rather than net present value over time. Where there was a one-time benefit, as in development charges, the result was converted to an annualized basis using a 5% rate of interest (e.g. for every $100 one-time benefit, an annualized $5 was assessed). For brownfields redeveloped for an average industrial case, the net public benefits were an estimated $100,703 per year per hectare. For residential redevelopment the benefits were an estimated $74,124. Table 1: Annualized Net Public Benefits Per Brownfield Hectare Redeveloped (De Sousa (2002)) Benefit Item Net Brownfield Benefits Industrial Residential Case ($/ha) Case ($/ha) Tax Revenues $48,019 Development Charges (Annualized) $18,134 Transportation Externalities $19,170 Agricultural Land Preservation $3,756 Reduced Health Risks $6,487 Air pollution $0 Jobs $0 Neighborhood Improvement Annual Net Benefit Per Hectare $5,138 $100,703 Definitions/Assumptions Change in property tax revenue net of ($15,785) incremental costs to municipality of providing services. Net of incremental capital costs to $1,348 municipality – annualized at 5% interest rate. Congestion, airborne emissions, accidents, etc. by passenger car, truck, $66,619 and rail. Emissions valued at control costs. At least equal to gross farm receipts $5,329 annually from greenfield space saved. Valued at cost of remediation of the $10,811 brownfield land. Emissions by plant or residential $557 housing. $0 No net jobs. Increased property tax revenue only, $5,246 based on 5% increase in value on land area equal to brownfield. $74,124 Note that the estimates reported in Table 1 are relative to equivalent greenfield sites as per average case studies developed by De Sousa. Thus, there is a net property tax loss for the residential brownfield (minus $15,785 annually), since the net property tax revenue (e.g. Toronto property tax revenues, net of costs to serve the development), was higher for the equivalent greenfield residential development. To project from per hectare benefits to the whole of the Greater Toronto Area, De Sousa (2002) constructed two scenarios for the estimated 350 hectares of brownfield land in the area:55 54 Ibid. – abstract, page 251. Hara Associates Appendix C - 3 • • Low: 60% of brownfield land was net developable, the other 40% being required for parks, roads, sidewalks etc. High: 90% of brownfield land was net developable. Table 2 provides the resulting annualized public benefits for brownfield redevelopment over greenfields for the whole of the Greater Toronto Area. Table 2: Original Estimates for Annualized Brownfield Public Benefits in Toronto (De Sousa (2002)) Estimate Low High 2.2 All Commercial $21,147,613 $31,721,419 All Residential $15,566,094 $23,349,140 Updating Impact on Property Values and Productivity Cities are the engines of Canadian economic activity and growth. Each achieves its role through unique location advantages plus the shared characteristic of all cities: compactness. Compactness means that economic agents are closer to one another, realizing lower transaction costs and forming more complex working relationships. Infilling brownfields increases the compactness of cities, improving productivity. The most easily observed impact is increased value of land surrounding a redeveloped brownfield. De Sousa (2002) assumed that a neighboring area of land equal to the brownfield area would increase in value by 5% (Neighborhood Improvement in Table 1). Current literature suggests the impact on property value is significantly greater, not only in proportion but in geographic reach. The estimate was revised to assume that land-area in a 2.42 kilometer56 radius surrounding redeveloped brownfields increased in value by 10%. This assumption is based on empirical work by Ihlanfeldt, Keith R. and Laura O. Taylor (2002), Assessing the Impacts of Environmental Contamination on Commercial and Industrial Properties.57 They estimated a net impact of one billion $U.S. in property value neighboring 44 brownfield sites. The 10% impact is a conservative assumption based on commercial property, since residential property values have typically been estimated as being impacted at 30% of value (see discussion in Section 3 of Hara Associates (2003)). To account for the increased land area affected, it was necessary to make some assumptions about the distribution of the 350 hectares of land. If the land were distributed in many small parcels, it would affect a larger total area, since each parcel may account for at minimum a circle of neighboring land of radius (adjusted for any overlap). Hemson (1998), the source document 55 The 350-hectare estimate was drawn from tables appended to Hemson Consulting (1998) Retaining Employment Lands – Morningside Heights – A report to the City of Toronto Economic Development, Tourism & Culture. 56 1.5 miles in the original estimate. 57 UC San Diego Division of Social Sciences Working Paper. (Sponsored by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) Hara Associates Appendix C - 4 cited by De Sousa, included a map of sites with approximately 22 distinct sites or agglomerations of brownfield sites, for an average site size of 15.9 hectares. The most conservative assumption for shape of the average parcel of brownfield land is that of a circle, with radius of 225 meters.58 Surrounding land would be the area of a circle of 2,645 meters (2420 meters plus 225 meters), less the area of the brownfield itself at radius 225 meters. The result is 2,180 hectares of surrounding land impacted for every 15.9 hectares of brownfield in the Toronto area, or 137 hectares experiencing a 10% increase in property value for every hectare of brownfield developed. Since De-Sousa conservatively assumed a one for one ratio, the original De-Sousa estimate for property tax flows must be multiplied by 137 to better account for the volume of surrounding land affected by remediating brownfield land. In addition to increasing the volume of land, two other adjustments must be made: • • Higher Estimated % Impact. The original value must also be doubled to reflect an assumed impact of 10% on property value rather than 5%. Counting benefits to owners of neighboring lands. The De Sousa estimate counted only increased property tax as a public benefit. It is more correct to also count as a public benefit the increased income stream to the owner of neighboring properties, since that too is part of the additional wealth created for society when a brownfield is redeveloped.59 There is insufficient data within the De Sousa article to calculate this impact. However, it is reasonable to assume that property tax does not take more than half of the revenue generated to landowners from property. Therefore, we may conservatively double the tax revenue to arrive at collective benefit. The joint adjustment of significantly greater surrounding area affected, a 10% impact on property value instead of 5%, and including benefits to the surrounding land owners themselves, means that the original De Sousa estimate for “neighborhood improvement” should be increased by a factor of 548 times (137 × 2 × 2). Thus, the original estimate of $5,318 annually for this item under a commercial redevelopment becomes $2.8 million annually. While this may seem a large adjustment, it reflects the importance of brownfields on the compactness and consequent more effective land use that is core to the value-generator that is a city. The amount cited reflects gains not to the redeveloped brownfield, but to the larger surrounding area that it impacts. 2.3 Including Productivity Increases for Non-Property Factors of Production The preceding section included the impact of brownfield development on third-party property holders. However, the property holder’s gain represents only a part share of the total productivity gain. Other factors of production have their own scarcity within a city, and share in the increased earnings. A precise estimate would require substantial information on land use, factor incomes, and price sensitivities of supply and demand. In the absence of this information, it is conservative to assume that land, one factor of production, does not capture more than half the value of the increase in productivity. Thus the gains to other factors are assumed to be at 58 Assuming a more reasonable square shape results in a higher estimate of land area affected. Although unrealistic, a circle provides the most conservative result. 59 In economic terms, benefits to neighboring landowners are an externality, since they are often not part of (external to) the private sector participants in the development decision for the brownfield. Hara Associates Appendix C - 5 least equal to the combined returns to landowners and property tax from brownfield redevelopment. To account for this an additional line was added to the benefit/cost ledger, with a net benefit equal to the net benefit entered on the “neighbourhood improvement” line. 2.4 Other adjustments to the estimates Two other adjustments were made to the original De Sousa (2002) estimates: • Annualizing Development Charge gains. These represent one-time gains that had been annualized at an interest rate of 5%. In principal, for public policy decisionmaking, the conversion between annualized and one-time (net present value) numbers should be performed using the social discount rate (the opportunity cost of capital to society averaged across asset types and adjusted for tax distortions). In place of the 5% used in the original article, a 10% social discount rate was used. 10% is the central value estimate for the social discount rate still endorsed by Treasury Board Secretariat of the Canadian federal public service. The 10% estimate is significantly out-dated. More recent academic estimates for Canada have tended to place the rate lower, but likely above 5%. • Value of life in Crash Cost Savings. The De-Sousa calculation of traffic externalities includes specific estimates of kilometres of passenger automotive vehicle travel saved from brownfield redevelopment over greenfield. The value per kilometre for reduced accidents shown in the article does not appear to include the value of lives saved from reduced traffic accidents. The article reports accident savings as one tenth of one cent per kilometre. In contrast, a value of eight cents per kilometre is suggested, based on a value per accident fatality avoided of $3.9 million60, and a fatality rate in the U.S. of 13.4 deaths per billion miles travelled. In the case of a residential development, this increases the savings per hectare from transportation externalities from $66,619 to $118,168 annually, as a result of the reduced travel by occupants of more urban residential developments. A lower but similar adjustment is made for commercial developments (see Table 3 below). Revised Estimates for Toronto Table 3 below re-estimates the net public benefits per hectare reported in Table 1. Resulting High and Low Estimates for the City of Toronto are provided in Table 4, using the same land utilization assumptions as De Sousa (2002). The revised net gains from diverting growth to brownfields from greenfields ranges from between $1.2 billion and $1.8 billion annually for the greater Toronto Area. 60 Central estimate for value of statistical life of average Canadian under age 65, in 1996 dollars, by Air Quality Valuation Model Version 3.0 - Report #2 Methodology - 1999, Stratus Consulting for Health Canada & Environment Canada. Hara Associates Appendix C - 6 Table 3: Annualized Net Public Benefits Per Brownfield Hectare Redeveloped (Updated & Revised) Benefit Item Tax Revenues Development Charges (Annualized) Transportation Externalities Net Brownfield Benefits Industrial Residential Changes in Definitions/Assumptions Case ($/ha) Case ($/ha) $48,019 ($15,785) No change. Annualized at 10% social discount rate $36,268 $2,696 instead of 5%. Added value of lives saved from $34,035 $118,868 reduced accident fatalities @ 8 cents per kilometer. Agricultural Land Preservation $3,756 Reduced Health Risks $6,487 Air pollution Jobs Neighborhood Improvement Productivity Increases to Non-property Factors of Production. Annual Net Benefit Per Hectare $0 $0 $2,816,665 $5,329 No change. Valued at cost of remediation of the brownfield land. $557 No change. $0 No change. 10% increase on property within 1.5 miles (2.42 kilometers) and inclusion of $2,875,871 benefit to third-party neighboring property owners. $10,811 $2,816,665 $2,875,871 $5,761,896 $5,874,218 New. At least equal to property value gain. Table 4: Annualized Brownfield Public Benefits in Toronto (Updated and Revised) Estimate Low High 3 All Commercial $1,209,998,071 $1,814,997,107 All Residential $1,233,585,821 $1,850,378,732 PROJECTING FROM TORONTO TO NATIONAL LEVEL There is very little information on brownfield inventories for Canada as a whole. The federal government maintains a partial inventory of known contaminated sites, but the definition for these is different from urban brownfields. Thus projection from Toronto to the Nation can only be on the roughest basis. Tables 5 and 6 provide two alternatives based on the 2001 census. They are by population and by surface area for Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs). Total population for CMAs is approximately 3.8 times that of the Greater Toronto Area by itself, or 11.1 times the land area. Population was chosen as the most conservative and more appropriate method between the two options. Land area of cities is set arbitrarily by government regulation. Hara Associates Appendix C - 7 Table 5: Greater Toronto Area – 2001 Census CMA City of Toronto Regional Municipality of Durham Regional Municipality of Halton Regional Municipality of Peel Regional Municipality of York Greater Toronto Area Population in 2001 2,481,494 506,901 375,229 988,948 729,254 5,081,826 Land Area (square km) 629.91 2,523.48 967.04 1,241.99 1,761.64 7124.06 Table 6: 27 Census Metropolitan Areas – 2001 Census CMA Edmonton Calgary Vancouver Victoria Abbotsford Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg Thunder Bay Greater Sudbury Ottawa-Hull Toronto Kingston Oshawa Hamilton St. Catharines-Niagara Kitchener London Windsor Chicoutimi-Jonquiere Quebec Sherbrooke Trois-Rivieres Montreal Halifax Saint John St. John's TOTAL Ratio to GTA Population in 2001 937,845 951,395 1,986,965 311,902 147,370 225,927 192,800 671,274 121,986 155,601 1,063,664 4,682,897 146,838 296,298 662,401 377,009 414,284 432,451 307,877 154,938 682,757 153,811 137,507 3,426,350 359,183 122,678 172,918 19,296,926 3.8 Hara Associates Land Area (square km) 9,418.62 5,083.00 2,878.52 695.34 625.94 5,192.22 3,407.84 4,151.48 2,548.16 3,536.10 5,318.36 5,902.74 1,906.82 903.23 1,371.76 1,406.42 826.98 2,333.37 1,022.53 1,753.67 3,154.35 1,108.16 880.47 4,047.35 5,495.54 3,359.61 804.63 79,133 11.1 Appendix C - 8 Table 7 reports the resulting projection of Table 4 to Canadian CMA’s as a whole, based on population. National benefits of brownfield development are estimated to be between $4.6 and $7.0 billion annually. On a capitalized basis, using the previously discussed 10% social discount rate, net benefits are between $46.0 billion and $70.3 billion. Table 7: Annualized Brownfield Public Benefits for Canada ($ Billions) Estimate Low High All Commercial $4.6 $6.9 All Residential $4.7 $7.0 Table 8: Net Present Value of Brownfield Public Benefits for Canada ($ Billions) Estimate Low High 4 All Commercial $46.0 $69.0 All Residential $46.9 $70.3 METHODS FOR IMPROVING ESTIMATES As noted in the introduction, the above estimates may be considered order-of-magnitude working numbers only. Although larger than the De Sousa estimates, they are based on conservative assumptions for a wider set of benefits. In particular, the scope of impact on values of surrounding properties has been expanded to reflect recent research and theoretical expectations. The accuracy of estimates could be improved in many ways, including the following: • • • • Better treatment of property value and productivity impacts. The De Sousa calculations might be reviewed in more depth to resolve some property tax issues. For example, the current calculation method appears to rely heavily on differences in property tax rates between the suburban municipalities and downtown Toronto. Would impacts disappear under equalized tax rates under the amalgamated municipality? Potential improvements to methodology would focus on differences in property values between periphery and downtown developments. Adjust data to common year. Dollar values are drawn from years 1995 to 1999. Standardizing to the year 2002 dollars (e.g. adjusting for inflation) would provide more current estimates. More accurate relationship between property values, tax rates, and factor shares of rents. There are a variety of economic literatures that may provide better quantitative relationships than the arbitrary ratios assumed here. Valuing human life and health. The valuation of health risks at remediation costs is probably too conservative. Cost based valuation is usually predicated on the assumption that there is an alternative policy of pollution control that could achieve a similar Hara Associates Appendix C - 9 • reduction. This makes sense for air pollution from transportation – which goes to a common pool. However, the health gains from the remediation of land only occur when the land is remediated, and thus should be valued on their actual basis using the wellestablished practices for valuing changes to risk of mortality and morbidity. Value of life and health may also enter into the calculation of other per kilometre transportation costs. The original sources for these values were not reviewed for this note, but could be reviewed in the future. Valuing Greenfields Saved. The public may put a higher value on saved wetlands then is captured by gross receipts to farmland. There may be contingent valuation studies, which place reasonable bounds on the environmental values of individuals. Hara Associates