.
A seasonal SIR metapopulation model to
control plague in prairie dog colonies
Professor Amy Ekanayake
Western Illinois University
Abstract: In this talk, deterministic and stochastic SIR epidemic models with vector species will be introduced to evaluate black-tailed prairie dog population dynamics, and possible control methods, in the presence of the sylvatic plague
in colonies interconnected through dispersal. There are many
factors that govern plague dynamics among prairie dog populations. These include: host factors, such as the spatial distribution of colonies and dispersal between them, population
density, susceptibility, food abundance, and the effect of seasonal changes; and vector factors, such as the specific flea
species present, transmission potential, population density,
and survival rates. Also there are many stochastic factors that
influence epizootics, such as weather fluctuations and climate
change. The SIR model incorporates each of these factors to
evaluate their importance in an epizootic. We further evaluate the effects of control of the vector population and control
by immunization on plague eradication.
DEPARTMENT
of
MATHEMATICS
Thursday,
October 16, 2014
3:45 p.m.
Morgan Hall 204
Refreshments
will be served at 3:30
p.m.