Predicting the impact
‘Although the next influenza pandemic in the
UK may cause considerable illness and
death, great uncertainty is associated with
any estimate of the pandemic’s potential
impact.’ UK Pandemic Influenza contingency Plan 2005
Expected scale and severity
Global
High-income
countries
UK
Expected
deaths
Expected
hospitalisations
2-50 million
6.4-28.1 million
280,000 650,000
1.5-5.2 million
Minimum of
50,000
Minimum of
80,000
Pandemic flu effect on the UK
ƒ Impossible to predict when it will begin
ƒ Difficult to predict impact with any accuracy
ƒ Estimates of scale of illness, death rates
and those most likely to have severe illness
are uncertain
ƒ Will also depend on the availability and
effectiveness of antiviral drugs and
vaccines
Impact on health services
ƒ Likely to place great pressure on health
and social services
– Increased numbers of patients
requiring treatment
– Depletion of the workforce due to
illness and other disruption
Impact on business
ƒ 25% of the UK workforce will take 5-8
working days off over a three-month
period
ƒ Estimates suggest that during the peak
absenteeism will double in the private
sector and increase by two-thirds in the
public sector
Impact on schools and services
ƒ Likely to spread rapidly in schools and
other closed communities
ƒ Impact on all services including police,
fire, the military, fuel supply, food
production, distribution and transport,
prisons, education and business
Pandemic waves (1)
Past experience teaches us that following
the emergence of a new pandemic virus:
ƒ more than one wave of influenza is likely
ƒ the gaps between the waves may be
weeks or months
ƒ a subsequent wave could be worse than
the first
Pandemic waves (2)
ƒ The 1918/19 A/H1N1 pandemic occurred
in three distinct waves: early spring 1918,
autumn 1918 and winter 1919
ƒ The second wave was the largest and
had the highest case fatality
Pandemic waves (3)
ƒ In 1957/58 the second wave was very
small in comparison to the first
ƒ In contrast, the 1968/69 A/H3N2
pandemic, the second wave in 1969/70
was more severe than the epidemic
wave in the winter of 1968/69
Year
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
700
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
1981/82
1980/81
1979/80
1978/79
1977/78
1976/77
900
1975/76
1974/75
1973/74
800
1972/73
1971/72
1970/71
1969/70
1968/69
1967/68
1966/67
Rate per 100 000 population
Seasonal and pandemic influenza:
Weekly GP consultations for
influenza-like illness
RCGP Index for Influenza & Influenza-like Illness, 1966 and 2003
(Year marked at start of season i.e. Week 40 (October))
1300
1969/70
1200
1100
1000
1975/76
1972/73
1967/68
1989/90
600
500
400
300
200
100
0