ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FAA / EUROCONTROL Cooperative R&D
Action Plan 9
“System Wide Modeling in Fast-time Simulation”
Current and Future Capabilities
1st Annual Workshop – NAS-Wide Simulation in Support of NextGen
Dec. 10th – George Mason University
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Introduction
• Research Objective
• Approach
• Scope
• Findings
• Questionnaire Sections
• Existing Capabilities
• Gaps in Capabilities
• Conclusions
• Needs
• Industry Participation
• Integration Issues
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
INTRODUCTION
• Action Plan 9 (AP9) – Air Traffic Modeling of Operational Concepts
• Research Objectives:
• Determine modeling capabilities of existing system wide tools
• Determine the availability of capabilities required for future system wide
concepts
• Approach:
• TIM: Madrid, Spain, Nov. 16-17, 2006
• Interviews with model developers and subject matter experts
• Responses from 15 organizations and 28 subject matter experts
• 18 fast-time system wide modeling tools
• Document the research and the conclusions
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
SCOPE
• System wide is equivalent to:
- Runway-to Runway operations (US)
- Gate-to-Gate operations (Europe)
• Focus
- System operations as opposed to economic, financial or political
attributes of the ATM system, and
- System wide modeling capabilities that
- Capture propagation of a problem throughout the system
- Support modeling of future operations, technologies and concepts.
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
INTERVIEW: QUESTIONNAIRE SECTIONS
• General Modeling Information
• Airspace
• Flight Schedule & Trajectories
• Separation – Tactical Control
• Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
• Airports
• Aircraft
• Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)
• Environment
• Infrastructure
• Human Performance
• Software – Architecture and Programming
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES
• General Modeling Information
• Discrete event, continuous time, agent-based, and analytical tools
• Stochastic processes or working toward stochastic elements
• Capacity, delay, and efficiency primary focus
- Airspace
- Most considered sectors as resources others more detailed
- Sector capacity typically modeled using MAP values
• Flight Schedules and Trajectories
- Traffic defined by:
- schedules
- filed flight plans
- as-flown trajectories
- great circle routes
- 4D trajectories: pre-processing vs. run-time adjustments
- Some considered uncertainty in 4D positions
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Separation – Tactical Control (varied in models)
• Conflict detection and resolution
• Capacity-demand imbalances
• Flight re-routing
•Traffic Flow Management:
- Departure Time Management (mostly European tools)
- Ground Delay and Ground Stop Programs
- In-trail restrictions, metering and sequencing (limited)
- Re-routing around severe weather cells (limited)
• Airports
- High-level vs. detailed capabilities
- Departure sequencing and delay
• Aircraft
- Varying levels of fidelity of aircraft performance characteristics modeling
- Aircraft performance as a function of on-board equipage
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Collaborative Decision Making
• AOC’s/Pilots
• Flight slot swapping (pre-processing)
• Environmental Concerns
- Only via post-processing
• Infrastructure
- Failure rates via impact on capacity limitations
• Human Performance
- Controller workload: task allocation and time-on-task
• Software – Architecture and Programming
- Maturity of the tools
- Validation and verification
- Integration of new capabilities
- Connectivity between tools
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES
• Objective sector capacity evaluation as a function of:
- Human performance
- Traffic complexity
- Separation standards
- Weather
• Ability to distinguish operational and procedural differences across
- Domains and airspace segments (en route, terminal, approach/departure, etc.)
- Different categories of flights (IFR vs. VFR, equipage based performance, etc.)
- Different categories of airspace (PBA)
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Propagation of impacts from one restriction to another (including CDM)
• Conflict detection and resolution
• Capacity-demand imbalances (MAP’s, in-trail restrictions, LOA’s, etc.)
• Flight re-routing (SUA’s, congestion, weather, etc.)
• Propagation of impacts from one resource to another
- Both from ground to air, and air to air resource
- Supporting infrastructure and its requirements
- System errors, update rates, failures and outages
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• Incorporation of stochastic processes and behaviors
- Uncertainty in aircraft 4D position
- Non-compliance with the expected user behavior (e.g. 4D contract and TMI)
•Future concepts of interest (examples)
- Dynamic Sectorization
- Multi Sector Planner
- Trajectory Based Operations
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)
• Standardized performance measures and indicators to facilitate repeatability
and cross-comparison of the outcomes
• Optimization capabilities, including both individual trajectory and flow or
system wide optimized solutions
• Environmental considerations, restrictions, and trade-offs
• Other considerations
- Sensitivity analysis
- Validation and verification
- Difficulty of integration of new capabilities and disconnectivity between tools
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS
• Providing Insights vs. Predictions of Future
• Required level of detail
• Flexibility
• Industry Participation Needed
• Aircraft performance chars. (manufacturers, air carriers, etc.)
- 4D trajectory building
- Fuel burn
• CDM
- Airline goals
- Re-routing negotiations
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
CONCLUSIONS
• Balance between too much and too little detail is important
• Flexibility is crucial
- Desired level of fidelity as a function of modeling objective
- Do not focus on generating outcomes and data-drilling capabilities
- Focus on providing novel analytical capabilities while ensuring consistency
• Plug-and-play capabilities
- Flexible modeling environment
- Harmonious modeling components
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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation
Contact Information
Albert Schwartz, FAA
albert.schwartz@faa.gov
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