FAA System-Wide
Modeling
Uses and Shortfalls
Presented to: GMU System-Wide Modeling
Workshop
By: Joseph Post, ATO NextGen & Ops Planning
Date: 10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
Overview
• Uses of System-Wide Models
• NextGen Overview
• Modeling Shortcomings
– ATM Domain
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If we can’t model
the current system,
how can we model
this thing?
NextGen
Airport
Terminal
En Route
Oceanic
Flow Control
Airline Operations Center (AOC)
– Model Use
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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NAS Strategy
Simulator
AwSim/AERALIB
ATO
NASPAC
Modeling
Suite
SIMMOD
RDSIM/ADSIM
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Uses of System-Wide Models
Requirements Analysis
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Development
Performance Assessment
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)
• Portfolio optimization
The Challenge: To select an optimum portfolio of
aviation investments so as to maximize
the overall economic return, subject to
a budget constraint.
W  PV SConsumer  S Producer  CGov  CEnv noise, CO2 , NOX ,
Consumer
Surplus
Environmental
Costs
Producer
Surplus
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Government
Costs
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Uses of System-Wide Models (cont.)
System-wide performance assessment
Expectations
Model
Target
S
Demand

“The
Performance
Loop”
System
Performance
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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NextGen Implementation Plan
7 Solution Sets
Increase collaborative ATM
Increase flexibility in the terminal environment
Increase arrivals/departures at high-density airports
Initiate trajectory-based operations
Reduce weather impacts
Improve safety, security, and environmental performance
Transform facilities
Air Traffic
Operations
43 Mid-Term Capabilities
NextGen
Aircraft &
Operator
Requirements
Airport
Development
Capital Programs
ADS-B
SWIM
DataComm
NNEW
NAS Voice Switch
Aircraft
Roadmap
ERAM
TFM-M
TMA
WAAS
LAAS
2 Solution Sets
35 OEP airports
15 metropolitan areas
FY
09
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Federal Aviation
Administration
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TBO
Initiate Trajectory Based Operations
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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HiDensity Solution Set
Increase Arrival/Departures at High Density Airports
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Flex Terminal
Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Area
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Collaborative ATM
Improve Collaborative ATM
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Weather
Reduce Weather Impact
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Airport Modeling Shortfalls
• Simplistic airport capacity
– Single airport configuration
• Convection weather
– Airport closure
• Departure release
• Surface congestion
– Taxiways
– Gates
– De-icing
• Tail number tracking
– Delay propagation
• Passenger tracking
Coupled
– Connections
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
13
Terminal Modeling Shortfalls
• Simplistic terminal airspace
– Airport coupling
– Terminal capacity
• Aircraft trajectories
– Route of flight
– STARs
– DPs
• Convection weather
– Re-routing/arrival gate closure
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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En Route Modeling Shortfalls
• Static sector capacity
– Monitor Alert Parameter (MAP)
• Static sector definition
• Response to sector overload
– Re-routing
• Metering
– Time-based metering
– Miles-In-Trail (MIT)
• Convective weather
– Dynamic sector capacity
– Tactical re-routes
• Continuous Descent Approaches (CDAs)/
Tailored Arrivals
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Oceanic Modeling Shortfalls
• Oceanic airspace!
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Flow Control Modeling Shortfalls
• Ground stops/ground delays
– Airport constraints (GDPs)
– Airspace constraints (AFPs)
• Strategic re-routes
– Severe Weather Avoidance Program (SWAP)
– Canadian Off-load
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
17
AOC Modeling Shortfalls
• Cancellations
• Ground Delay Program (GDP) response
• Re-routes
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Model Use Shortfalls
• Ease of Set-up
• Monte Carlo replication
– Demand
• Flight schedules
• OD pairs
• Equipment
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Aircraft performance
Routings
Capacities/airport configurations
TFM
etc.
• Visualization
• Validation
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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Questions?
FAA System-Wide Modeling
10 December 2008
Federal Aviation
Administration
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