Des Moines Business Record 05-26-07 Des Moines suffers from suburbs' retail growth By Sarah Bzdega sarahbzdega@bpcdm.com John Peterson, director of the Ankeny Community Planning and Building Department, points out Briarwood Center, a new neighborhood retail area. Photo by Duane Tinkey Des Moines officials call it the doughnut effect. Total retail sales in Greater Des Moines have risen steadily over the past few years, but sales growth has shifted away from the capital city to the surrounding suburbs. Although the Dallas County side of West Des Moines, where Jordan Creek Town Center is located, had the largest increase in retail sales from 2004 to 2006, Ankeny and Altoona also experienced significant gains, a sign that retail growth is balanced around Des Moines. And it appears that much of this money is coming from outside Central Iowa. "Any growth to the metropolitan area, almost all of it comes at the expense of other parts of the state," said Iowa State University economist Dave Swenson, who with economist Liesl Eathington prepared the report "Recent Trade Shifts in the Des Moines/West Des Moines Metropolitan Region." "With regard to net new trade capacity, we believe [retail development] is bringing sales into this region that otherwise weren't coming here," Swenson said. "We think Altoona and Ankeny are creating as much if not more net new sales to the region as Jordan Creek, so it's a complicated and diverse story." The study looked at changes in retail sales in a five-county area (Polk, Dallas, Warren, Madison and Guthrie counties) from fiscal year 2004, ended March 31 of that year, before Jordan Creek Town Center was constructed, to fiscal year 2006, a year after the mall was completed. The big picture Adjusted for inflation, real total retail and service sales in the five-county area increased 5.5 percent from fiscal 2004 to fiscal 2006. This growth exceeded the statewide sales gain of 1 percent as well as the area's 3.6 percent gain in population, suggesting that a major part of the sales growth came from residents outside the metropolitan region. The portion of West Des Moines in Dallas County had the largest influx of sales with an increase of more than 500 percent in real sales, or $310.8 million, in two years. Almost all of this growth came from residents of other communities inside and outside the five-county area, the report said. During the same period, Des Moines had the largest decrease in total retail sales, with $193.6 million less in sales in 2006 than in 2004, $143.7 million of which was estimated to be the net value of retail and service trade shifts elsewhere. "Retail is always going to follow population patterns," Swenson said, "and what has happened in Polk County, primarily over the last 30 years, is mostly a persistent shift west." However, Swenson said a more surprising discovery was the amount of retail growth in other areas of Greater Des Moines, particularly in the northeast suburbs of Ankeny and Altoona. Ankeny's retail sales rose 17 percent, or $74.6 million, and Altoona's sales jumped 46.7 percent, or $104 million, reflecting population growth east of Des Moines. A shift in retail trade affects not only the amount of sales tax that local governments and school districts collect, but also job opportunities. "Retail rarely creates new jobs," Swenson said, adding that new stores tend to be larger and more efficient than older ones, meaning retailers need fewer workers. Moving northeast Though West Des Moines has captured a large portion of the retail shift in Greater Des Moines, the combined retail sales growth of Ankeny and Altoona suggests that regional development is balanced. "Our goal is to try to make sure the north and east side of the metro grow so that we're balanced around the central city of Des Moines," said John Peterson, director of the Ankeny Community Planning and Building Department. In less than a decade, Ankeny's Delaware Avenue has become a major retail corridor with the development of several big-box retailers and strip centers housing smaller businesses. Now, Peterson said, his city is also seeing the emergence of smaller commercial centers in growing neighborhoods, which provide basic services to nearby residents. The ISU study suggests that most of Ankeny's retail growth resulted from its huge population increase since 2000, with 83 percent of its retail sales gain attributed to population and income growth. However, Peterson believes Ankeny is becoming more of a destination shopping area with a diverse mix of businesses, including a compact commercial center along Interstate 35 and other services remaining within the city. Nearly all of Ankeny's constructed retail space is occupied, he said. City officials believe this rate of growth won't taper off any time soon. "I would expect that the growth would continue with the number of people interested in moving to Ankeny. ... The rooftops are going to drive even more retail growth," said Tim Moerman, Ankeny's economic development director. Already Ankeny is expanding its retail corridor along Delaware south of Oralabor Road. Mills Fleet Farm, a Minnesota-based retail chain similar to Tractor Supply Co., is going through the city approval process to build a 273,200-square-foot store on Southeast Delaware Avenue, which Peterson said "is bigger than any other existing big-box store we have in town." A strip center is being built nearby, with Old Chicago Restaurant as the anchor tenant. In addition, the 1,000-acre Prairie Trail development will create a retail and office hub around a town center and Crosswinds Business Park will provide 800 acres for development east of the Corporate Woods interchange. Peterson sees the Jordan Creek development as a possible benefit to Ankeny in the future. "I think it's complementary almost, to the extent that in time, Ankeny may see some of those Jordan Creek businesses look over here for their second store," he said. Altoona also expects to continue its fast-paced growth, especially in its western commercial district by the U.S. Highway 65 bypass. But unlike Ankeny, most of Altoona's retail sales growth is from people outside the city. According to ISU's study, 14 percent of Altoona's $104 million retail sales growth was attributable to local income and population growth. "We've known eastern Polk County has been largely underserved," said John Shaw, the city's community development director, "so with the commercial growth Altoona has had, it has put a focus on the eastern Polk area." In addition to focusing on the western commercial development, Altoona has updated its First Avenue interchange with Interstate 80, which Shaw said has spurred commercial development in that area. The core Since Jordan Creek was built, and spinoff development began around the mall, several Des Moines retailers have moved to West Des Moines, including Berardi Bros. Custom Tailors and Schaffer's Bridal and Formal Wear. Josephs Jewelers opened a store in the western suburb in addition to its downtown location and has had better success there than at its Des Moines store. Younkers closed its flagship 141,000-square-foot department store downtown and Merle Hay and Southridge malls have experienced some turnover. These are signs of a shifting core. "We knew that Jordan Creek would have this effect, particularly on the malls," said Matthew Anderson, an economic development coordinator for the city of Des Moines. Still, city officials believe there is an opportunity to capitalize on needs that shopping centers don't fulfill to continue to attract shoppers to Des Moines. This includes focusing on specialty shopping areas in neighborhoods such as Ingersoll Avenue, Beaverdale and the East Village. "We may not be able to compete on quantity," Anderson said, "but [could on] quality of retail." Architect Erin Olson-Douglas, who is nearing completion of a one-year study on downtown Des Moines, said that the fact that retail sales in the five-county area grew faster than its population is good. "Now how do we complement the good things that they have done at Jordan Creek in West Des Moines, Altoona and Ankeny?" she said. "They've sort of sucked away from some things we had in Des Moines, and I think Des Moines, specifically downtown, can do some things different to help balance this out." Olson-Douglas believes that downtown could support pedestrian retail centers, such as in the East Village, especially now that housing developments have brought more residents downtown and Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway and Interstate 235 reconstruction have created greater visibility for downtown. As retail development develops outward, it could begin to affect suburbs close to Des Moines as well. Already the portion of West Des Moines in Polk County has suffered, with a $22 million decrease in retail sales for the two-year period. Based on population increase and income growth, it should have had a $22.3 million increase. Cities farther from Des Moines also have experienced a fall in retail sales, including Perry, which had $16.1 million less in sales in 2006 than in 2004. "The good news is it's spread around the center," Olson-Douglas said. "We just don't want to be the doughnut."