Des Moines Register
03-29-07
Huge jump in corn planting expected
New USDA survey could show most acreage in Iowa since '81
By PHILIP BRASHER
REGISTER WASHINGTON BUREAU
Washington, D.C. - Not since 1981, when President Reagan ended the Soviet
grain embargo, have Iowa farmers planted close to the record 14.4 million acres
of corn they seeded that year.
But that record could fall this year. The best indication will come when the U.S.
Department of Agriculture releases on Friday its widely anticipated survey of
farmers' 2007 planting intentions.
Analysts are expecting the report to project historic increases in corn acreage
both in Iowa and nationally because of soaring grain prices. Everyone from
livestock farms to ethanol producers to food processors also will be watching the
report because of the importance of farmers' plans to the price of commodities.
"I've had just a ton of people over the noon hour asking me what this report is
going to say," said Tim Recker, an Arlington farmer who is president-elect of the
Iowa Corn Growers Association.
"Don't underestimate the Iowa farmer for being able to overproduce. The market
is telling him to plant corn. He's going to plant corn."
Nationally, analysts are estimating that corn acreage will increase by about 10
percent or more to levels not seen since the 1940s. In Iowa, ground zero for the
nation's booming grain ethanol industry, the increase could even be larger.
Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities Inc., an investment and analysis firm
based in West Des Moines, expects Iowa farmers to plant 15 percent more corn
this year, which would just break the 1981 record. In 2006, farmers planted 12.6
million acres to corn in Iowa and 78.3 million nationwide.
"We're focused on more growth in ethanol in Iowa than in some of the other
areas," Roose said.
Chad Hart, an economist who follows commodity markets at Iowa State
University, also is looking for farmers to plant more corn.
"Everything we've been hearing, given that they are still staring at the $4 (per
bushel) corn price, is if they can get the seed, and the weather cooperates,
they're putting in more corn."
The increased corn acreage means farmers will be devoting less land to
soybeans. Recker, like many Iowa growers, has typically split his acreage
between corn and soybeans. This year, he expects to plant nearly 1,000 of his
1,500 acres in corn.
This reason is simple: In his area, corn could earn roughly $30 to $50 more per
acre, after expenses, than soybeans this year.
Farmers aren't likely to change their planting intentions because of Friday's
USDA report unless it causes corn prices to drop significantly, Recker said.
Poor weather this spring could cause farmers to rethink their plans if it delays
planting.
One of the state's most high-profile farm families also is following the trend. Sen.
Charles Grassley, R-Ia., said this week that his son, Robin, who operates the
family farm near New Hartford, plans to seed 60 percent of their acreage to corn.
What optimism there was in agriculture after the end of the Soviet grain embargo
in 1981 was short-lived, as U.S. farmers struggled to regain that market and land
values collapsed in the heartland.
This time, farmers are betting that the ethanol-driven demand for corn will keep
prices relatively high.
Recker, who started farming in 1985, said there is a new enthusiasm in
agriculture.
"We have a demand-driven market that we've never had before," he said.
Reporter Philip Brasher can be reached at (202) 906-8138 or
pbrasher@dmreg.com