Des Moines Register
06-21-06
As D.M. slims, suburbs swell
Officials in capital dispute census data, saying minorities are undercounted
BY JANE NORMAN AND JASON CLAYWORTH
REGISTER STAFF WRITERS
Des Moines faces the question of whether a city's population must grow in order
for the city to remain vibrant, as new census estimates issued today show the
capital continuing to lose residents while its suburbs flourish.
City leaders contend that the census estimates undercount members of minority
groups who tend to live in Des Moines rather than in the suburbs. "When the
information is treated as gospel, that seems like a bit of a stretch," said City
Manager Rick Clark.
Des Moines lost 2.3 percent of its population between 2000 and 2005, the
census says, going from a population estimate of 198,733 to 194,163.
Des Moines resident Samuel McGruder has watched many of his friends move
from the city.
"A lot of people who come from out of town don't stay long," McGruder said. "I
don't know why. I'm very comfortable here."
A lot of people are comfortable and happy in Des Moines. A recent poll of more
than 1,200 residents taken for the city showed that eight of 10 said they were
pleased overall with the quality of city services.
Yet the suburbs are more of a draw all the time. Ankeny's growth spurt took it
from 27,264 in 2000 to 36,681 in 2005, a 34 percent increase. John Peterson,
director of community planning and building in Ankeny, said it's not just families
moving into Ankeny — it's larger families whose children are filling seats in
schools.
"I think Ankeny's attractive to young families," he said, because it's easier for
parents to commute to either Des Moines or Ames. While signs are that
construction has slowed, the city still anticipates 900 to 1,000 building starts this
year in a mix of single-family homes, townhomes and condos.
Dave Swenson, a scientist in the department of economics at Iowa State
University who studies demographics, took a look at the list of city estimates
and found that 12 of the 20 fastest-growing cities in Iowa were in the Des Moines
area.
He was particularly struck by the increase in Ankeny, a town of some size even
in 2000. "They're whomping on West Des Moines now," he said.
Suburbs ringing Des Moines on all sides are gaining, Swenson said. "People
think all the growth is in West Des Moines, and that's so wrong."
In Waukee, a 70 percent increase in population took the town from 5,395 in 2000
to 9,213 in 2005. Altoona grew from 10,361 to 12,938, a nearly 25 percent
increase.
While it remains by far the largest city in Iowa, Des Moines has slipped from the
list of the nation's 100 largest cities, coming in at No. 106 just behind Huntington
Beach, Calif., and ahead of Grand Rapids, Mich.
Rankings of growth rates put Des Moines (with a 2.3 percent decline) at No. 220
of the 254 cities with populations of more than 100,000. Cities experiencing a
similar rate of loss from 2000 to 2005 included Richmond, Va., Sunnyvale, Calif.,
Lakewood, Colo., Baltimore and Minneapolis.
Becky Peterson and her family moved from Des Moines' Beaverdale
neighborhood to Woodward in January. A big factor in the move: crime. The
Petersons experienced three burglaries in three years, once to their car, once to
their garage and once to their home.
Crime statistics from police departments in the metro area show that burglaries
are more than twice as common in Des Moines as in West Des Moines, based
upon population and incident numbers. Des Moines had 2,631 burglaries last
year.
"We were already kind of looking, but that kind of pushed us to get out," Peterson
said.
Estimates distrusted
Clark, the Des Moines city manager, believes that the census numbers are
inaccurate and that people unfairly judge the city based on estimates.
"The experience we've had over the years is that estimates are off from the
actual counts," Clark said.
In 1996, census officials estimated that Des Moines had 193,422 residents. The
actual count in 2000 turned out to be 198,682, a difference of more than 5,000
people. (The 198,733 number used by the census for its estimates base for 2000
reflects modifications and updates from the actual count.)
City leaders believe that Des Moines' minority population has grown since the
last census and that minority residents often are undercounted by census takers.
The estimates are based in part on building permits, mobile home shipments and
housing unit loss, as well as the history of housing occupancy as found in the
2000 census.
Song Chen, a professor of statistics at Iowa State University, is leading a threeyear, federally financed project to examine the accuracy of census statistics. The
National Science Foundation has given Chen and two other faculty members a
$280,416 grant to find ways to ensure that everyone is counted.
Chen said that, indeed, minorities often are undercounted and that there are
portions of Des Moines with large numbers of minority residents. In addition,
young people between the ages of 17 and 24 tend to be undercounted because
they are transient, he said. Renters also are often undercounted.
However, Chen said, the annual estimates are "much more reliable" than they
were 10 years ago and the quality of the estimates is higher. "That doesn't say
we can take it religiously," he said, "but it's a lot better than before."
The next decennial census, in which the Census Bureau actually counts the
number of people in the country and which affects how much federal money
states and localities receive, will be conducted in 2010. Congressional aides said
that the estimates generally don't have a bearing on federal allocations. Experts
have said Iowa probably will lose a congressional seat in 2010 because it is not
gaining people as rapidly as other states.
A city's challenges
Like many aging cities in the United States, Des Moines city leaders face
challenges that are different from newer suburban areas, which helps explain
why taxes are higher. City leaders, for example, point out that they have greater
needs for street and sewer repairs, particularly on systems that are more than
100 years old. The city also must deal with hundreds of homes every year that
have deteriorated or been abandoned, a challenge that the suburbs don't deal
with as frequently.
Yet another challenge for the city is the amount of property that is not taxed.
About $1.5 billion worth of property in Polk County is shielded from the tax
collector. Most is in Des Moines, where roughly 40 percent of all property, for
various reasons, is untaxed. The value of that property has grown by more than
$197 million over the past five years. The amount of property that is untaxed
leaves a larger burden on families and businesses.
City leaders have recognized these challenges and have, on numerous
occasions in the past five years, proposed solutions. One, for example, was to
create a special fee for police and fire protection that would be paid by every
property owner, even churches, hospitals and other nonprofits. So far, that
attempt has not gained ground with Iowa lawmakers.
The city has also increased fees on gas and electric bills, which are paid by
virtually every energy user in the city. The increased fees, which generate more
than $13 million a year, are used to pay for extra police and firefighters as well as
to plug holes in the budget and increase library hours.
The fee, however, was challenged by a Des Moines resident who said the fee is
an illegal tax. Just this week the city cut more than $8 million in spending in
response to an Iowa Supreme Court ruling that said the city cannot charge more
than what it costs to regulate utilities. The cuts will mean less fire equipment and
street and road improvements that city leaders say are critical to Des Moines'
future.
Des Moines City Councilman Chris Coleman said that city leaders have not given
up hope. City and business leaders have invested more than $1.5 billion in
downtown development in the past decade, including a new $32.3 million library
that opened this year, hundreds of new apartments or condo units and a $61.9
million Science Center of Iowa building that opened in 2005.
"I think those things are going to pay off in a big way," Coleman said. Obviously,
many of these things we read about are still being constructed. I feel confident
that we're on the right track."
In Urbandale, population increased from 29,074 in 2000 to 34,696 in 2005, an
increase of more than 19 percent. Greg Robinson, superintendent of schools,
said the new Webster Elementary School will open in August at 128th Street and
Aurora Avenue. "We built it deliberately a little early because all around there we
have housing developments," Robinson said. A 32-room addition to Urbandale
High School will be completed by January.
Des Moines City Councilwoman Christine Hensley said the city's population
figures would have been much worse if leaders had not worked so aggressively
to improve downtown and other neighborhood areas. Hensley is worried that the
level of development could stagnate in future years, which is the wrong direction
for the city, she said.
"My biggest fear is that I don't want us to sit back at this time and say, 'Look at
what a good job we've done' and lose the momentum we've built."