Challenging Success: Can College Degree Completion Be Increased as States Cut Budgets?
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Challenging Success: Can College Degree Completion Be Increased as States Cut Budgets? KEY FINDINGS Just 4 of 51 respondents indicate a long-term plan exists to fund the operating budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees/certificates. Just 3 of 51 respondents indicate a long-term plan exists to fund the capital budgets needed to increase numbers of adults with college degrees/certificates. Access and capacity strains are present in 24 states, most of which have growing minority populations. 39 of 51 respondents disagree that community colleges’ transfer efforts are adequately rewarded in their states’ funding systems. While a large majority (35) said performance funding models are/ have been implemented, a 2:1 margin believe graduation rate increases will be difficult to achieve due to budget cuts. 16 report de facto enrollment caps were implemented at community colleges. Just 6 respondents agreed their public flagship and just 7 that their public regional universities had raised admission standards to limit transfer—but these include 3 of the 5 largest states. We thank the generous support of By Stephen G. Katsinas, The University of Alabama Mark M. D’Amico, University of North Carolina at Charlotte and Janice N. Friedel, Iowa State University Are We Deluding Ourselves? With deep cuts in state operating budgets, can the higher education community and policymakers realistically expect our nation’s public access colleges to increase graduation rates? Table 1 shows that a large majority of state community college leaders disagree that long-term plans exist in their states to finance operating and capital budgets needed to expand college degree and certificate completion. Just 4 agree—and 39 disagree—that funding and incentive systems in their states adequately reward community college efforts to increase transfer to the baccalaureate, even as they acknowledge policies to incent performance are under consideration or have been implemented in their states. Taken together, when asked “In light of state funding cuts, achieving increases in graduation rates will be difficult,” 24 agree or strongly agree, 16 are neutral or don’t know, and 11 strongly disagree or disagree. Thus, for those expressing an opinion, by a better than 2:1 margin state community college leaders believe it will be difficult to raise graduating rates in light of state budget cuts. About this study This report assesses college degree completion issues from the unique perspective of state-level policymakers responsible for coordination, supervision, and management of community colleges. Since 2003, the Education Policy Center has documented these issues in our Access and Funding in Public Higher Education reports. The community college is a portal of entry into U.S. higher education for millions of academically-talented Table 1 No Long-Term Plans and Funding Cuts Will Increasing College Degree Completion Difficult In my state... A long-term plan exists to finance the operating budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees and certificates. Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/Don't Know Disagree 4 11 26 8 A long-term plan The funding and exists to finance the incentive systems capital budgets adequately reward needed to increase community college the number of adults efforts to increase with college degrees transfer toward the and certificates. baccalaureate degree. 1 3 3 8 8 31 26 9 13 Policies to incentivize improved performance (e.g. funding models based on credits and/or degrees completed) are under consideration/ have been implemented. 11 24 5 8 3 Strongly Disagree Source: 2011 Surv ey of Access and Finance Issues, Education Policy Center, The Univ ersity of Alabama DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 In light of state funding cuts, achieving increases in graduation rates will be difficult. 6 18 16 10 1 minority and low income students. They serve more traditional aged first generation students than do other sectors, and large numbers of adult students. With capped enrollments at elite private and public flagship universities in many large states, to increase graduation rates requires expanding community college transfer to public access regional and flagship universities. The broad knowledge of National Council of State Directors of Community Colleges members of policy and practice across all education sectors, thus provides a useful perspective of just where college degree completion and related access and funding issues stands today. The impending deep cuts in summer Pell Grants next year by the federal government, at the same time state budgets are being cut, raises the question: Can college degree completion reasonably be expanded as tuition is predicted to rise to compensate for state cuts for public access college budgets? Challenging Success presents selected results of the 2011 Survey of Access and Finance, conducted from July 5 to August 24, 2011.3 We thank our advisory panel for survey input, the American Public University System for support, and all 51 NCSDCC members for participating again this year.4 Responsibility for errors is ours alone.5 The Context: Key Findings from Squeeze Play Our prior report, Squeeze Play, to which all 51 NCSDCC members responded, found students and families are squeezed as tuition is predicted to rise by twice the inflation rate, while 29 states predict flat-funding or cuts in state-student aid programs. Most report cuts in operating budgets for flagship universities, regional universities, and community colleges. High unemployment has exhausted available WIA and other workforce training funds in 21 states, constricting the ability of community colleges to serve workers in need of retraining. Squeeze Play also found that to prepare workers for good jobs, funds are needed to expand high demand programs tied to high wage jobs in allied health, engineering, and IT at community colleges. This cannot happen if states reduce operating budgets for community colleges, regional and flagship universities. The deep recession has increased pressure for colleges to offer or expand “quick” job training in non-credit areas in most states. Squeeze Play concluded DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 access threats are acute in large states with fast-growing minority populations. Predicted operating budget cuts come as enrollments are predicted to rise at community colleges in 2 of 3 states, and facilities construction and renovation was found to be a major need in 48 states. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, state coordination of public higher education was strongly recommended as good public policy by higher education experts such as A.J.P. Brumbach (1963). A major perceived benefit to state policy-makers was the more effective use of scarce public resources through the development and execution of effective long-term plans. This was needed to provide access to the bulge of the children of the World War II G.I.s, the so-called “baby boomers,” who were approaching traditional college-going ages of 18-24 years old between 1965 and 1973. The planning process would begin by developing statewide goals and objectives—such as providing geographic and programmatic access to all citizens of the state—and then developing long-range plans to finance operating and capital budgets needed to sustain those state goals. Yet this planning has been made much more difficult in light of the long-term increases in enrollment in an era of declining state support. Nearly fifty years later, the nation is in the midst of another boom of traditional aged students approaching higher education. Between 2009 and 2012, one million additional Americans will reach traditional college-going age of between 18 to 24 years old. To this are added three million additional young adults ages 25 to 34. Much of this growth has been in America’s minority populations. For example, in Illinois in 1980, African Americans and Hispanics comprised 13.8 and 5.6 percent, respectively of the total population. In 2010, Illinois had grown by 1.4 million people. And of this much larger total, Hispanics and African Americans comprised 16 and 15 percent, respectively. Without the existence of long-term plans to finance the operating and capital budgets, the question begs: Will there be seats at the table of public higher education for them? 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 2 Table 2 No Long-Term Plans and Funding Cuts Make Increasing College Degree Completion Difficult In my state... A long-term plan exists to finance the operating budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees and certificates. A long-term plan exists to finance the capital budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees and certificates. Alabama Neutral/Don't know Disagree Alaska Neutral/Don't know Disagree Arizona Agree Agree Arkansas Neutral/Don't know Disagree California Disagree Disagree Colorado Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Connecticut Disagree Disagree Delaw are Disagree Disagree Florida Disagree Disagree Georgia-TCS Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Georgia-UGS Disagree Disagree Haw ai'i Agree Neutral/Don't know Idaho Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Illinois Disagree Disagree Indiana Neutral/Don't know Disagree Iow a Neutral/Don't know Disagree Kansas Disagree Disagree Kentucky Disagree Disagree Louisiana Disagree Disagree Maine Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Mary land Agree Agree Massachusetts Disagree Disagree Michigan Disagree Strongly Disagree Minnesota Disagree Disagree Mississippi Disagree Disagree Missouri Disagree Disagree Montana Disagree Neutral/Don't know Nebraska Disagree Disagree Nev ada Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree New Hampshire Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know New Jersey Neutral/Don't know Agree New Mex ico Disagree Disagree New York Disagree Disagree North Carolina Neutral/Don't know Strongly Disagree North Dakota Disagree Disagree Ohio Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Oklahoma Agree Strongly Disagree Oregon Disagree Disagree Pennsylvania Disagree Disagree Rhode Island Disagree Disagree South Carolina Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree South Dakota Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Tennessee Disagree Disagree Texas Disagree Disagree Utah Disagree Disagree Vermont Disagree Disagree Virginia Disagree Disagree Washington Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree West Virginia Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Wisconsin Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Wy oming Disagree Disagree Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/Don't Know Disagree Strongly Disagree 4 11 26 8 3 8 31 9 The funding and Policies to incentivize incentive systems improved performance adequately reward (e.g. funding models community college based on credits efforts to increase and/or degrees transfer toward the completed) are under baccalaureate consideration/have degree. been implemented. In light of state funding cuts, achieving increases in graduation rates will be difficult. Strongly Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Agree Agree Strongly Agree Agree Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Agree Strongly Agree Agree Strongly Agree Strongly Agree Disagree Agree Agree Agree Strongly Disagree Agree Agree Strongly Disagree Agree Strongly Agree Agree Agree Disagree Agree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Agree Strongly Agree Strongly Agree Strongly Agree Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Agree Strongly Agree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Agree Agree Agree Strongly Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Disagree Neutral/Don't know Agree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Agree Neutral/Don't know Agree Agree Agree Neutral/Don't know Agree Agree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Agree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Agree Agree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Agree Agree Agree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Agree Agree Strongly Agree Strongly Agree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Disagree 1 3 8 26 13 11 24 5 8 3 6 18 16 10 1 As States Cope with Budget Cuts, Plans to Expand College Degree Completion Are Wanting Considering these many factors, planning to finance access and expand avenues to student success is critical. Respondents in our prior report, Squeeze Play, said that funding for higher cost/high technology oriented programs was a major need. We report here that few respondents indicate long-term plans exist in their states to fund either the operating and capital budget increases needed to increase the numbers of adults with college degrees and certificates. Just 4 respondentsArizona, Hawai’i, Maryland, and Oklahoma-agree that long-term plans exist in their states to finance operating budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees and certificates. Not one respondent strongly agreed, while 34 are in disagreement. Source: 2011 Surv ey of Access and Finance Issues, Education Policy Center, The Univ ersity of Alabama DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 3 TABLE 3 Capacity Concerns Lead Public Institutions to Ration Opportunities Community colleges have limited the number of class sections resulting in a de facto enrollment cap at all or some institutions in my state. Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaw are Florida Georgia-TCS Georgia-UGS Haw ai'i Idaho Illinois Indiana Iow a Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Mary land Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nev ada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mex ico New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wy oming Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/Don't Know Disagree Strongly Disagree To significantly increase Due to inability to meet the demand of growing transfer numbers, some or all of my state’s... numbers of successful community college ...public flagship ...public regional transfers who obtain universities have universities have baccalaureate degrees raised admissions raised admissions requires expanding my standards to limit standards to limit state’s public universities. transfer. transfer Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Agree Strongly Agree Agree Strongly Agree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Agree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Agree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Strongly Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Agree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Agree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Agree Disagree Agree Strongly Agree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Agree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Strongly Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Neutral/Don't know Agree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Agree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Strongly Agree Disagree Agree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Disagree Agree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree Disagree Neutral/Don't know Agree Strongly Disagree Neutral/Don't know Disagree 7 9 10 17 8 2 10 6 25 8 1 5 9 27 9 1 6 11 25 8 Source: 2011 Surv ey of Access and Finance Issues, Education Policy Center, The Univ ersity of Alabama DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 4 A important related long-term capacity issue is the adequacy of the physical infrastructure. In our September 2011 report, 48 respondents said facilities funding was a major need. Yet respondents from just 3 states—Arizona, Maryland, and New Jersey— indicate long-term plans exist in their states to finance the capital budgets needed to increase college degree and certificate completion. In contrast, 40 disagree. Taken together, the lack of long-term plans for operating and capital budgets means public access colleges may not have the funding they need to provide postsecondary opportunities. flagship universities raised admission standards to limit transfer. Just 7 respondents were in agreement, as compared to 33 in disagreement, that their regional universities raised admissions standards to limit transfer. These results are tempered, however, by the fact that three of the nation’s five largest states—California, Florida, and New York agreed with both. How large states are coping with capacity pressures is discussed below in further detail. Capacity Is Strained in Large, Fast-Growing States Table 4 on the page following summarizes only the 24 states that indicated capacity strains in one of the four Rationing Opportunity at Public Access Colleges items presented in Table 3. The four columns to the Capacity issues in public access sectors are real and right show the changes in total population and Hispanic have led to potential limiting of access to postsecondary population between the 2000 and 2010 Census, both opportunities. When asked to respond to the item numerically and on a percentage basis. “Community colleges have limited the number of class Among the respondents from the 16 states agreement sections resulting in a de facto enrollment cap at all or with the item “Community colleges have limited the some institutions in my state,” two in five or 16 are in number of class sections resulting in a de facto enrollagreement, 10 are neutral or do not know, and 25 are in ment cap at all or some institutions in my state,” eight disagreement. Among the 16 in agreement are some of saw population increases of under 10 percent between our nation’s fastest-growing states—Arizona, Arkansas, 2000 and 2010, while three states--Arizona, Nevada, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana, and Utah, saw increases above 20 percent in just ten Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Nevada, North years. Further, the far right two columns show that the Carolina, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin. percentage increase in the Hispanic population was very When asked, “To significantly increase the numbers large and substantial—often, in excess of 50 percent. of successful community college transfers who obtain The second column lists the 12 respondents indicating baccalaureate degrees requires expanding my state’s their public universities would need expansion to signifpublic universities,” 12 are in agreement, 6 are neutral or icantly increase numbers of community college transfers do not know, and 33 are in disagreement. Thus, by a obtaining baccalaureate degrees. Among these 12, the margin of more 2 of 3, respondents disagree that their population change between 2000 and 2010 ranges widepublic universities need expansion to increase transfer ly, with Nevada’s high increase of 35 percent. Signifiopportunities for community college students. But the cantly, even in states with smaller percentage population respondents from the 12 states in agreement with this increases, Hispanics increased by at least double-digits. statement include 4 of the nation’s 5 largest: California, And in our nation’s largest states, small percentage Florida, Illinois, and New York. The eight other states increases can mask large numerical population increases. were Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, South Carolina, For example, New York’s grew by 2.1 percent between South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, and Washington. 2000 and 2010, which translated into an additional The right two columns of Table 4 ask if, due to an 400,000 people. The Empire State’s Hispanic populainability to meet the demand of growing transfer tion still grew by 19.2% over the decade, which means numbers, some or all public flagship universities and an additional 549,339 New Yorkers of Hispanic origin. regional universities have raised admissions standards to This pattern of Hispanics constituting a substantial perlimit transfer. Just 6 respondents were in agreement, as centage, if not a clear majority, of population growth compared to 36 in disagreement, that their public was repeated in nearly all 24 of these states. DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 5 TABLE 4 States Indicating Access Capacity Strains and Population Growth from 2000 to 2010 Respondents Indicating "Agree" or "Strongly Agree"... To significantly increase Community colleges numbers of successful have limited the community college number of class transfers who obtain sections resulting in a baccalaureate degrees de facto enrollment requires expanding my cap at all or some state’s public institutions in my state. universities. Due to inability to meet the demand of growing transfer numbers, admissions CHANGE, 2000 to 2010 in... standards have been raised to limit transfers at TOTAL HISPANIC some or all of my state’s Population Population public... Growth Growth flagship regional universities universities Number % Number % Arizona 1 1,261,385 24.6 599,532 46.3 242,518 9.1 99,184 114.2 2 Arkansas 3,382,308 10.0 3,047,163 27.8 3 California California California California 727,935 16.9 303,086 41.2 4 Colorado 168,532 4.9 158,764 49.6 5 Connecticut 2,818,932 17.6 1,541,091 57.4 6 Florida Florida Florida 411,339 3.3 497,316 32.5 7 Illinois Illinois 64,396 1.4 84,822 78.7 8 Louisiana 53,438 4.2 7,575 80.9 9 Maine Maine Maryland 477,066 9.0 242,716 106.5 10 Maryland Maryland 198,532 3.1 198,925 46.4 11 Massachusetts -54,804 -0.6 112,481 34.7 12 Michigan 122,639 4.3 41,912 105.9 13 Mississippi 702,294 35.1 322,531 81.9 14 Nevada Nevada Nevada 377,544 4.5 437,953 39.2 15 New Jersey 401,645 2.1 549,339 19.2 16 New York New York New York 1,486,170 18.5 421,157 111.1 17 North Carolina 409,675 12.0 174,748 63.5 18 Oregon 613,352 15.3 140,606 147.9 19 South Carolina 59,336 7.9 11,216 102.9 20 South Dakota 530,716 23.8 156,781 77.8 21 Utah Utah 922,509 13.0 302,285 91.7 22 Virginia 830,419 14.1 314,281 71.2 23 Washington Washington Washington Washington 323,311 6.0 143,135 74.2 24 Wisconsin Total 16 12 6 7 Note: The largest states are bolded and italicized. Sources: (1) 2011 Survey of Access and Finance Issues, Education Policy Center, The University of Alabama. (2) Data on Total Population Growth and Hispanic Population Growth: Ennis, S.R., Rios-Vargas, M., and Albert, N.P. (2011). The Hispanic Population, 2010. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau. May. Table 2 DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 With impending Pell Grant cuts at the federal level, tuition rising at more than double the inflation rate and statefunded student aid stagnating in most states, students and their families are being squeezed. And the significant reductions in state operating budgets challenge the public higher education access institutions committed to serving them. 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 6 Table 6 Hispanic Population Growth and Long-Term Plans for Financing in Large States Increase in To increase the number of adults with In light of state funding Hispanics, college degrees and certificates, a longcuts, achieving 2000 to 2010 term plan exists in my state to finance.. increases in graduation Number % operating budgets capital budgets rates will be difficult. State California 3,047,163 28 Disagree Disagree Neutral/DN Florida 1,541,091 57 Disagree Disagree Neutral/DN Georgia-TCS Neutral/DN Neutral/DN Neutral/DN 418,462 96 Georgia-UGS Disagree Disagree Neutral/DN Illinois 497,316 33 Disagree Disagree Agree New York 549,339 19 Disagree Disagree Agree North Carolina 421,157 111 Neutral/DN Strongly Disagree Agree Ohio 137,551 63 Neutral/DN Neutral/DN Neutral/DN Pennsylvania 325,572 86 Disagree Disagree Agree Texas 2,791,255 42 Disagree Disagree Strongly Disagree Respondents were asked if, due to an inability to meet growing transfer numbers, admissions standards to limit transfer have been raised at some or all of the public flagship and regional universities in 6 and 7 states, respectively. In all of these states, the Hispanic population grew substantially. Table 6 presents the Hispanic population increases from 2000 to 2010, juxtaposed with three other survey items: the existence of long-term plans to finance the operating and capital budgets needed to increase the numbers of adults with college degrees and certificates, and perceptions as to the difficulty of achieving graduation in light of state budget cuts. Because of Georgia’s dual system of community and technical colleges with its Technical College System and its University of Georgia community colleges, 10 responses are presented. Table 6 shows that in each state, the Hispanic population growth, numerically and on a percentage basis, was substantial. Not one respondent indicated that a long-term plan exists in their state to finance the operating budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees and certificates: 7 of 10 disagreed, with the other 3 neutral. And not one respondent indicated that a long-term plan exists in their state to finance the capital budgets needed to increase the number of adults with college degrees and certificates: 7 disagreed, 1 strongly disagreed, and the other 2 neutral/did not know. When asked if, in light of state funding cuts, achieving increases in graduation rates would be difficult, just 1 respondent, Texas, strongly disagreed; 4 agreed, and 5 were neutral. DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 Are Plans in Place to Finance the Demographic Change Already Here? Taken together, these data call into basic question states’ ability and commitment to expand system capacity to serve the numbers of adults seeking college degrees and certificates. That our current boom is comprised of large numbers of non-white students makes this conclusion more troubling. This study did not analyze the statewide plans of the fifty states to assess whether or not those plans had the goal of expanding access to postsecondary education beyond high school. Nor did this study analyze those plans to see if they had formally stated the goal of extending higher education access to all of the citizens in their states. Demographic changes similar to what was described above in Illinois are clearly observed in most of the states that indicated capacity strains at their public access institutions. Tight state finances threaten access, especially in many or nation’s fastest-growing states. The end of federal ARRA stimulus funds will likely intensify competition for scarce state dollars. The state budget cuts and lifting of ARRA provisions that forced states to maintain current efforts and limit tuition increases end in this fiscal year. It is therefore significant that not one large state reports that long-term plans exist to finance the operating and capital budgets to increase numbers of adults with college degrees and certificates. In light of state budget cuts, we conclude that financing college access and completion to serve the demographic change already here will be challenging. 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 7 REFERENCES 1. Palmer, J.C. (Editor). Grapevine. Distribution of states, by size of the state tax appropriations for higher education, FY08 (Table 6). Retrieved April 16, 2008 from www.grapevine.ilstu.edu/tables/pdf/Table6_08.pdf (Note--a list of states with and without local revenues is at http://uaedpolicy.weebly.com/ uploads/6/1/7/1/6171842/2010state_directors_survey.pdf) 2. The National Council of State Directors of Community Colleges is one of more than 30 affiliated councils of the American Association of Community Colleges. This report was written independently of both organizations; neither the NCSDCC nor the AACC formally endorsed this report. 3. Responses were received from all 51 NCSDCC members or their designees, representing every state. Puerto Rico, also an NCSDCC member, was not surveyed. Responses from Arizona, Maryland, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania came from their state community college associations. Georgia's responses come from both the University System of Georgia (GA-USG) which coordinates community colleges, and the Technical College System of Georgia (GA-TCS) which coordinates technical colleges across the Peach State. New York's response was from the State University of New York system, and not the City University of New York system. 4. The Advisory Panel for the 2011 National Survey of Finance and Access in Public Higher Education include Marilyn J. Amey, Michigan State University; Anthony P. Carnevale, Georgetown University; Brent D. Cejda, University of Nebraska-Lincoln; Marc Cutright, University of North Texas; Pamela Eddy, College of William & Mary; Linda Serra Hagedorn, Iowa State University; Arthur M. Hauptman, Cary A. Israel, President, Collin College District (TX); Daniel J. Hurley, American Association of State Colleges and Universities; R. Frank Mensel, Education Policy Center, The University of Alabama; Michael T. Miller, University of Arkansas at Fayetteville; James C. Palmer, Illinois State University; Hilary Pennington and Sidney Hacker, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; James O. Rose, Wyoming Community College Commission; Terrance A. Tollefson, East Tennessee State University; Holly Zanville, Lumina Foundation for Education; Eboni Zamani-Gallaher, Eastern Michigan University. 5. The authors thank Education Policy Center Fellow Delphine Harris and EPC Research Associate J. Lucas Adair for their assistance with the survey. 6. Respondents could choose whether or not to respond to individual survey questions; thus, the number of responses received for different survey items varies, as do the totals on the data tables presented. Numerical data for last year and predictions for next year for operating budgets, tuition, and state-student aid are estimates. Other survey items are scaled (strongly agree-agree-neutral/don't know/not sure-disagree-strongly disagree), and are perceptions, not actual measures. 7. Only former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford publicly opposed federal stimulus funds for this purpose. 8. Katsinas, S.G., & Freidel, J.N. (2010). Uncertain recovery: Access and finance issues in public higher education. The 2010 survey of the National Council of State Directors of Community Colleges. Tuscaloosa, Alabama: The University of Alabama. Accessed September 4, 2011 at http://uaedpolicy.weebly.com/ uploads/6/1/7/1/6171842/2010_directors_survey.pdf 9. The 2011 preliminary forecast for the Higher Education Price Index, as of July 19, 2011, is 2.3%. Accessed August 29, 2011 at http://www.commonfund.org/ CommonfundInstitute/HEPI/HEPI%20Documents/HEPI_2011_Table.pdf 10. Katsinas, S.G., & Kinkead, J.C. (2011), Enrollment trends at public access institutions. forthcoming. 11. Respondents from 15 of 17 states report tuition increased last year at their public HBCUs by an average of 11%. Space does not permit listing here.. 12. The 12 states in disagreement that their state's community colleges currently have capacity to meet current and project numbers of high school graduates are Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Louisiana, Nevada, North Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. The 12 states disagreeing that their state's community colleges have capacity to meet current and projected numbers of older students returning to college are Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Missouri, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. 13. American Jobs Act. Accessed September 10, 2011 at http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/09/08/fact-sheet-american-jobs-act 14. National Association of State Budget Officers. (2010) State expenditure report. December. Accessed September 5, 2011 at http://nasbo.org/LinkClick.aspx? fileticket=w7RqO74llEw%3d&tabid=38 15. Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger argued state investments in public higher education should never fall below that of corrections. 16. Bureau of Labor Statistics (August 31, 2011). Accessed September 6, 2011 at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. THE EDUCATION POLICY CENTER AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA The College of Education’s Education Policy Center seeks to inform and improve education policy-making and practice, and our understanding of the roles education plays in a free and equitable society, through a coordinated program of research, topical and historical analyses of education-related issues, and services for education practitioners and policy-makers in Alabama and the nation. On-Going Center Projects Include: Annual Surveys of Access and Finance Issues can be found at http://uaedpolicy.weebly.com/cc-directors-surveys.html The Alabama College Transfer Advising Corps (2007-2011) is one of 10 $1 million national demonstration programs funded by the Jack Kent Cooke Foundation. In partnership with the UA Office of Academic Affairs, the Alabama Community College System, and 13 partner colleges, over 24,000 students attending community colleges in high poverty areas received transfer counseling services. The University of Alabama Superintendent’s Academy is a partnership with Alabama State Department of Education to create a more diverse, competent, and prepared applicant pool ready to assume district-/system-wide leadership positions. The Carnegie Basic Classification of Associate’s Colleges was published in 2006 and updated in 2011. The federal government cannot tell how many community colleges exist, because data are collected by units of accreditation and not districts. The Carnegie Basic codes are embedded in all US Department of Education data bases. EPC Director Steve Katsinas, Senior Fellow Vincent Lacey, and David Hardy of the College of Education are Consulting Scholars to the Carnegie Foundation with this project. Wayne J. Urban's book, More Than Science or Sputnik, the National Defense Education Act (2010), provides a comprehensive re-examination of the NDEA. Urban is now working on a biography of former Harvard University President James Bryant Conant. Director: Stephen G. Katsinas, Ph.D. Associate Director: Wayne J. Urban, Ph.D. Director, The University of Alabama Superintendent's Academy: Richard L. Rice, Jr., Ph.D., J.D., C.P.A Research Fellow and Project Coordinator, Alabama College Transfer Advising Corps: Jessica Griffin Research Associates: J. Lucas Adair, Matthew DeMonBrun, Rebecca Midkiff Senior Fellows: Mary Allen Jolley, Vincent Lacey, Frank Mensel, Pat Moeck, David Murphy, Robert Pedersen, James "Skip" Dotherow. Research Fellows: A. Delphine Harris, Michael A. Kennamer, John Clinton Kinkead, Kristie R. Rankin, Melissa P. Tarrant Box 870231, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0231 Telephone: 205-348-2470 - FAX: 205-348-3828 http://uaedpolicy.weebly.com/cc-directors-surveys.htm DRAFT, EMBARGOED UNTIL NOVEMBER 18, 2011 2011 Survey • Education Policy Center 8
