VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS:
VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-94
by
Stuart Newstead
Max Cameron
Michael Skalova
Report No. 92
June 1996
MONASH UNIVERSITY ACCIDENT RESEARCH
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
Report No.
92
CENTRE
ISBN
073260672
Report Date
June 1996
1
Pages
18
Title and sub-title:
Vehicle Crashworthiness Ratings: Victoria and NSW Crashes During 1987-94
Author(s)
Newstead, S.V., Cameron, M.H.
Skalova, M.
Type of Report
& Period
Covered
Summary Report, 1992-94
Sponsoring Organisations - This project was funded through the Centre's baseline research
program, for which grants have been received from;
Department of Justice,
Royal Automobile Club of Victoria Ltd.,
Transport Accident Commission,
VIC ROADS
and by a grant from the New South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority and the NRMA.
Abstract:
Crashworthiness is the relative safety of vehicles in preventing severe injury in crashes.
Crashworthiness ratings for 1982-94 model vehicles were developed based on data on crashes in
Victoria and New South Wales during 1987-94. Crashworthiness was measured by a combination
of injury severity (of injured drivers) and injury risk (of drivers involved in crashes). Injury
severity was based on 63,000 drivers injured in crashes in the two States. Injury risk was based on
289,000 drivers involved in crashes in New South Wales where a vehicle was towed away. The
ratings were adjusted for the driver sex and age, the speed limit at the crash location, and the
number of vehicles involved, factors which were found to be strongly related to injury risk and/or
severity. They estimate the risk of a driver being killed or admitted to hospital when involved in a
tow-away crash, to a degree of accuracy represented by the confidence limits of the rating in each
case. The estimates and their associated confidence limits were sufficiently sensitive that they were
able to identify 36 models of passenger cars, four-wheel drive vehicles, passenger vans and light
commercial vehicles which have superior or inferior crashworthiness characteristics compared with
the average vehicle. However the results are based on a number of assumptions and warrant a
number of qualifications which should be noted.
Key Words: (IRRD except when marked*)
Injury, Vehicle Occupant, Collision, Passenger Car Unit, Passive Safety System, Statistics
Disclaimer:
This Report is produced for the purposes of providing information concerning the safety of
vehicles involved in crashes. It is based upon information provided to the Monash University
Accident Research Centre by VIe ROADS, the Transport Accident Commission, the New
South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority, and NRMA Ltd. Any republication of the findings
of the Report whether by way of summary or reproduction of the tables or otherwise is
prohibited unless prior written consent is obtained from the Monash University Accident
Research Centre and any conditions attached to that consent are satisfied.
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC) commenced a project to develop
crashworthiness ratings (the relative safety of vehicles in preventing severe injury in
crashes) and produced rating scores for 1982-90 model vehicles which were published and
widely distributed during 1992. An updated set of crashworthiness ratings for 1982-92
model vehicles was produced and published by MUARC during 1994.
This report describes the development of further updated crashworthiness ratings for 198294 model vehicles based on crash data from Victoria and New South Wales.
Crashworthiness was measured by a combination of injury severity (of injured drivers) and
injury risk (of drivers involved in crashes). Injury severity was based on 63,000 drivers
injured in crashes in the two States during 1987-94. Injury risk was based on 289,000
drivers involved in crashes in New South Wales where a vehicle was towed away.
The crashworthiness ratings were adjusted for the driver sex and age, the speed limit at the
crash location, and the number of vehicles involved, factors which were found to be
strongly related to injury risk and/or severity. These adjustments were made with the aim of
measuring the effects of vehicle factors alone, uncontaminated by other factors available in
the data which affected crash severity and injury susceptibility.
The rating scores estimate the risk of a driver being killed or admitted to hospital when
involved in a tow-away crash, to a degree of accuracy represented by the confidence limits
of the rating in each case. The estimates and their associated confidence limits were
sufficiently sensitive that they were able to identify 36 models of passenger cars, four-wheel
drive vehicles, passenger vans and light commercial vehicles which have superior or inferior
crashworthiness characteristics compared with the average vehicle.
It is concluded that the additional crash data has enabled the crashworthiness ratings to be
obtained for a larger range of car models than previously. The new data set has been able to
produce more up-to-date and reliable estimates of the crashworthiness of individual car
models than those published previously. However the results and conclusions are based on
a number of assumptions and warrant a number of qualifications which should be noted.
3
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
A project as large and complex as this could not have been carried out without the help and support of a
number of people. The authors particularly wish to acknowledge:
•
Professor Peter Vulcan and Dr Brian Fildes of the Monash University
(MUARC) for their constructive advice throughout the project
Accident
Research
Centre
•
Mr David Attwood of the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) for the provision ofTAC claims data
•
Mr David Farrow ofVicRoads
crash reports
•
Mr David Anderson, Mr Bob Gardner and Dr Gray Scott of VicRoads Road Safety Department for their
continuing support for the project
•
Mr Michael Griffiths of the New South Wales Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) for his support for the
project and the release of data from NSW Police crash reports
•
Mr Jack Haley of NRMA for his support for the project and for providing procedures to determine the
models of vehicles crashing in NSW and Victoria
•
Ms Maria Pappas of NRMA who developed and applied the procedures to determine the models of
vehicles recorded on NSW and Victoria Police crash reports
•
Mr Michael Adams of the NSW RTA who prepared and provided data files from NSW Police crash
reports
•
Mr Michael Case, Mr Richard Stolinski and Mr Matthew Dickie of the RACV, for their support in the
project, for the provision of logic to determine the models of vehicles from information obtained from the
Victorian vehicle register by the TAC, and for advice on substantive changes in designs of specific
models over the years
•
Mr David Kenny of MUARC for updating and refming the RACV logic to determine the models of
vehicles recorded in TAC claims records
•
Ms Cheryl Hamill, formerly of VicRoads, and Mr Foong Chee Wai and Mr Terry Mach, formerly of
MUARC, for developing and implementing the procedures for merging TAC claims records and
Victorian Police crash report data
•
Dr Caroline Finch and Mr Tri Minh Le, both of MUARC, for the development of the analysis methods in
earlier years which formed the basis of the methods used in this report.
•
Dr Alan Miller, formerly of the CSIRO Division of Mathematics and Statistics for suggesting analysis
methods used in this report to improve the sensitivity of the results and to determine the confidence limits
of the estimates.
•
Officers of the Victorian and NSW Police Forces and of the Transport Accident Commission
diligently recorded the information on crashes and injuries which formed the basis of this report.
Business Services Division for the provision of data from Victorian Police
4
who
VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS:
VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-92
CONTENTS
Page No.
1. INTRODUCTION
1
1.1 BACKGROUND
1.2 PROJECT AIMS
1
2
,
2. CRASH DATA
2.1
2.2
2.3
VICTORIAN
2
COMBINED
2
3
4
CRASHES
NEW SOUTH WALES
CRASHES
DATA FROM THE Two
STATES
3. MODELS OF VEHICLES
4
4. ANALySIS
5
4.1 OVERVIEW
OF THE ANALYSIS
5
METHODS
4.1.1 The Logistic Model
4.1.2 Logistic Confidence Limits for the Vehicle Models
4.2 LOGISTIC MODELS FOR EACH COMPONENT
4.2.1 Obtaining the Covariate Models
4.2.2 Assessing Car Model Differences
4.2.3 Assessing Market Group Averages
4.3 COMBINING THE INJURY RISK AND INJURY
4.4 INDIVIDUAL CAR MODELS
4.5 MARKET
4.6
TRENDS
7
7
8
SEVERITY COMPONENTS
9
9
10
11
GROUP ANALYSES
IN THE RATING CRITERIA
6
6
DURING
1987-92
11
4.6.1 Trends in Driver Injury Rate in NSW
4.6.2 Trends in Driver Injury Severity in Victoria and NSW Combined.
4.6.3 Trends in the Combined Rate
12
12
12
5. RESULTS
13
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
13
14
14
15
INJURY RISK
INJURY SEVERITY
CRASHWORTHINESS
COMPARISONS
RATINGS
WITH THE ALL MODEL AVERAGE
RATING
6. CON CL U SI 0 NS
7. ASSUMPTIONS
16
AND QUALIFICA TIONS
17
7.1
ASSUMPTIONS
17
7 .2
QUALIFICATIONS
17
REFERENCES
18
5
APPENDICES
APPENDIX 1.
Makes and models of cars involved in Victorian and NSW crashes during
1987-94
APPENDIX 2.
APPENDIX 3.
Logistic regression estimates of injury risk by model and market group
Logistic regression estimates of injury severity by model and market
group
Crashworthiness ratings of 1982-94 models of cars involved in crashes
during 1987-94
APPENDIX 4.
6
VEHICLE CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS:
VICTORIA AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-94
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Background
In 1990, the NSW Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) and the NRMA set out on a joint
project to develop a 'car safety rating' system based on Police records of crash and injury
involvement. The objective was to use vehicle crash records and injury data to develop
ratings for the relative safety of vehicles. The NRMA and RTA entered into discussions
with the CSIRO to conduct the necessary analysis, and by early 1991 had produced some
relative ranking of vehicles.
During the same year, the Victorian Parliamentary Social Development Committee (SDC)
in its report on its inquiry into vehicle occupant protection recommended ways should be
investigated for Victorian consumers to give high priority to motor vehicle occupant
protection in the vehicles they purchase (SDC 1990).
In the second half of 1990, the Monash University Accident Research Centre (MUARC)
commenced a project to develop consumer advice on vehicle safety performance from mass
accident data. The development of crashworthiness ratings (the relative safety of vehicles in
preventing severe injuries in crashes) was given priority in the project because of their
potential to find significant differences between makes and models.
In mid 1991, the NSW and Victorian groups became aware of each others activities and,
following discussions, agreed to proceed jointly rather than have two competing vehicle
safety rating systems, one based on Victorian data and the other on NSW data. Later, the
NSW RTA and NRMA agreed that MUARC should undertake the analysis of the joint
NSWNictorian data sets. The NSW RTA and NRMA perform preliminary work on the
NSW data base to, as far as possible, provide a clean set of data with accurately inscribed
models for each vehicle. The data is then handed over to MUARC for analysis.
Crashworthiness ratings rate the relative safety of vehicles by examining injury outcomes to
drivers in real crashes. The crashworthiness rating of a vehicle is a measure of the risk of
serious injury to a driver of that vehicle when it is involved in a crash. This risk is estimated
from large numbers of records of injury to drivers of that vehicle type involved in real
crashes on the road.
In 1994, MUARC produced vehicle crashworthiness ratings based on crash data from
Victoria and New South Wales during 1987-92 (Cameron et aI, 1994a,b). These ratings
updated an earlier MUARC set produced by Cameron et al (1992). Crashworthiness was
measured in two components:
1.
2.
Rate of injury for drivers involved in tow-away crashes (injury risk)
Rate of serious injury (death or hospital admission) for injured drivers (injury
severity).
The crashworthiness rating was formed by multiplying these two rates together; it then
measured the risk of serious injury for drivers involved in crashes.
Measuring
crashworthiness in this way was first developed by Folksam Insurance who publish the
well-known Swedish ratings (Gustafsson et aI1989).
The results of these ratings are summarised in Cameron et al (1994a) with a full technical
description of the analysis methods appearing in Cameron et al (1994b). These ratings use
an analysis method which was developed to maximise the reliability and sensitivity of the
results from the available data. In addition to the speed zone and driver sex, the method of
analysis adjusts for the effects of driver age and the number of vehicles involved, to produce
results with all those factors taken into account.
The 1994 crashworthiness ratings covered 87 individual models of sedans, station wagons,
four wheel drives, passenger vans and light commercial vehicles and were given as
estimates of risk of severe injury for each model along with 95% confidence limits on each
estimate. These rating figures were widely distributed in the form of a "Driver Protection
Ratings" brochure.
1.2
Project Aims
The aim of this project was to update the previously published crashworthiness ratings of
Cameron et a1 (1994a,b) by inclusion of additional crash data from the years 1993 and 1994.
The updated ratings cover the drivers of cars, station wagons, four-wheel drive vehicles,
passenger vans, and light commercial vehicles manufactured during 1982-94 and crashing
in Victoria or NSW during 1987-94. Some enhancements to the statistical methods used for
analysis have also been employed.
2.
CRASH DATA
Data from Victoria and NSW used to produce the crashworthiness ratings of Cameron et al
(1994a,b) covering vehicles manufactured over the period 1982-92 and crashing during the
years 1987-92 was again used here. In addition, data for 1993 and 1994 for both states was
obtained and integrated bringing the total period of crash data covered to 1987-94 for
vehicles manufactures in the years 1982-94.
2.1
Victorian Crashes
Detailed injury data have been collected by the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) and
its predecessor, the Motor Accidents Board, as part of their responsibilities to provide road
transport injury compensation.
For each claimant, a description of the injuries was
recorded, as well as whether the person was admitted to hospital. Some details of the
occupied vehicle (but not its model) were obtained by TAC from the VIC ROADS
registration system. When the TAC was established in 1987, it introduced a requirement
that the crashes resulting in an injury claim should be reported to the Police, and started
adding Police accident numbers (if and when available) to the claims records.
2
dl types
road of
TAC injury claims from all types of road users who were involved in crashes in the period
1987 to 1992 had been merged with Police crash reports for the previous crashworthiness
ratings (Cameron et aI1994a,b). The Police reports were for all persons involved in crashes,
no matter whether the Police officer recorded the person as injured or uninjured (this
procedure was followed because it was possible for an injury claim to be made in
circumstances where injury was not apparent at the time of the crash). Crashes are reported
to the Police in Victoria if a person is killed or injured, if property is damaged but names
and addresses are not exchanged, or if a possible breach of the Road Traffic Regulations has
occurred (Green 1990).
The levels of matching ofTAC claims with persons recorded on Police reports for each year
during 1987-92, achieved by Cameron et al (1994b) for the last crashworthiness ratings, are
shown in Table 1. To update the ratings, files on the TAC claims during 1993 and 1994
were obtained. These were merged with the Police reports on crashes in Victoria during
1993 and 1994, achieving the match rates also shown in Table 1. The methods of matching
for the 1993-94 data were the same as used previously and are detailed in Cameron et al
(1994b).
Table 1:
TAC claims for injury compensation from crashes during 1987-94
Year
67.8
56.7
58.6(%)
65.4
61.6
68.1
66.3
70.7
TAC
matched
claims
with
TAC
Match
claims
rate
25,399
19,633
19,251
13,118
13,886
17,494
28,427
30,892
18,590
19,538
19,341
12,774
11,927
12,618
17,509
16,672
Police
reports
1987
users)
The merged files of TAC claims with Police reports for 1993-94 were added to the earlier
data on crashes during 1987-92, which then represented 115,998 TAC claims for injury
during 1987-94. The resulting file covered 20,814 injured drivers of 1982-94 model cars
who had accepted TAC claims. The information on these drivers was combined with data
on drivers injured in NSW (see Section 2.3) to produce the updated crashworthiness ratings.
2.2
New South Wales Crashes
NRMA supplied files covering 305,263 light passenger vehicles involved in Police reported
crashes during 1987-94 which resulted in death or injury or a vehicle being towed away.
NRMA had added the model and year of manufacture to these vehicles after matching with
the NSW vehicle register via registration number and vehicle make. The files supplied
covered only vehicles manufactured during 1982-94, but covered four-wheel drive vehicles,
passenger vans, and light commercial vehicles as well as cars and station wagons. The
method of assembly of this data is given in Cameron et al (1994b).
3
The vehicle files (which also contained driver age and sex) were merged with files supplied
by NSW RTA covering details of the person casualties (killed and injured persons) and the
reported crashes for the same years. Each vehicle/driver matched uniquely with the
corresponding crash information, but only injured drivers could match with persons in the
casualty files. A driver who did not match was considered to be uninjured. Out of the
305,263 drivers involved in tow-away crashes, 43,105 were injured.
The presence of uninjured drivers in the merged data file meant that it was suitable for
measuring the risk of driver injury (in cars sufficiently damaged to require towing). This
contrasted with the Victorian data file, which could not be used to measure injury risk
directly because not all uninjured drivers were included.
2.3
Combined Data from the Two States
When the data on the injured drivers was combined for analysis, it covered 63,919 drivers of
1982-94 model vehicles who were injured in crashes in Victoria or NSW during 1987-94.
This information was used to assess the injury severity of the injured drivers of the different
makes and models.
The information on the 305,263 drivers involved in tow-away crashes in NSW was used to
assess the injury rate of drivers of the different makes and models.
3.
MODELS OF VEHICLES
NRMA located the crashed vehicles in NSW vehicle registration records after matching by
registration number and vehicle make. NRMA decoded the Vehicle Identification Number
(VIN) or chassis number obtained from the register to determine the models of light
passenger vehicles. The decoding identified some light truck and unusual commercial
models which were not considered further. Of the vehicles manufactured during 1982-94,
all but 4.1 % had their model identified. Further details are given by Pappas (1993).
The Victorian vehicle register provided the make and year of manufacture of the crashed
vehicle but not the model. Models were initially derived for cars manufactured during
1982-88 using logic developed and supplied by the Royal Automobile Club of Victoria
(RACV) based on the make, year and power-mass units. Power-mass units (PMU) are the
sum of RAC horsepower units (PU) and the vehicle mass in units of 50 Kg (MU). Refined
logic was developed by MUARC based on make, year, PMU, PU, MU and body type, and
extended to cover 1989-93 models. The MUARC logic was applied to the combined
Victorian data in conjunction with the RACV logic to derive passenger car models for the
model years 1982-93.
For vehicles crashing in 1994, where available, the Victorian vehicle register provided the
VIN of each crashed vehicle along with the information described above. VINs are recorded
on the Victorian vehicle register for most vehicles from 1989 year of manufacture onwards.
Where a VIN was available for a vehicle appearing in the 1994 crash data, NRMA decoded
the model information from the VIN using the methods of Pappas (1993). Where the VIN
4
was not available, the RACV and MUARC logic, described above, was used to obtain
model details.
RACV provided advice on the particular models which had experienced substantial changes
in design (and hence potential crashworthiness) during model years 1982-94 and in which
years the design was relatively constant. This resulted in certain models being split into
ranges of years of manufacture. Where the new model was introduced near the beginning or
end of a year (up to two months either way), this process was relatively straightforward
(accepting a small mis-classification in some circumstances); however when the model
changed near the middle of the year, the model for that year was kept separate and
potentially treated as a "mixed" model (eg. the Daihatsu Charade 1987 models).
Advice had previously been provided by VicRoads regarding models (sometimes only for
specific years) which were essentially the same design or construction, though registered as
having different manufacturers, which could be combined with each other.
This
information was used in the analysis to combine some models, otherwise one or both
members of each such pair of models would have been excluded and a crashworthiness
rating figure would not have been produced (Section 4.2).
As in previous crashworthiness ratings, models were excluded with fewer than 20 injured
drivers and/or fewer than 100 involved drivers appearing in the crash data. These selection
criteria were used to ensure stability in fitting the logistic regression models along with
suitably small confidence limits on the estimated crashworthiness ratings.
For the purpose of publication, the models were also categorised in market groups as
follows:
Large
Medium
Small
Sports
Luxury
•
Passenger cars and station wagons:
•
Four-wheel drive vehicles
•
•
Passenger vans
Commercial vehicles (less than 3000 Kg GVM)
4.
ANALYSIS
4.1
Overview of the Analysis Methods
The crashworthiness rating (C) is a measure of the risk of serious injury to a driver of a car
when it is involved in a crash. It is defined to be the product of two probabilities (Cameron
et aI, 1992):
i)
the probability that a driver involved in a crash is injured (injury risk), denoted by R;
and
5
ii)
the probability that an injured driver is hospitalised or killed (injury severity),
denoted by S.
That is
C=RxS.
Measuring crashworthiness in this way was first developed by Folksam Insurance who
publish the well-known Swedish ratings (Gustafsson et aI, 1989).
In the present report, each of the two components of the crashworthiness rating were
obtained by logistic regression modelling techniques.
Such techniques are able to
simultaneously adjust for the effect of a number of factors (such as driver age and sex,
number of vehicles involved, etc.) on probabilities such as the injury risk and injury
severity.
4.1.1
The Logistic Model
The logistic model of a probability, P, is of the form:
That is, the log of the odds ratio is expressed as a linear function of k associated variables,
Xi' i = 1,... , k. Estimates of the parameter coefficients of the logit function, ie the ~i can be
obtained by maximum likelihood estimation (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989). The extension
of this model to include interaction terms is straightforward.
The expected value of the logit function can be calculated from the estimated coefficients
and the mean level of each factor:
4.1.2
Logistic Confidence Limits for the Vehicle Models
Whilst it is possible to calculate the variance of i(x), in the context of crashworthiness
ratings we are only interested in the component of variance due to one factor in i(x) with
the variance due to the other factors in the model being of no interest. In practice, the
component of variance due to the factor representing the vehicle model is of interest, whilst
the variance due to the remaining factors such as driver age and sex is common to all
vehicle models and hence of no interest.
To isolate the component of variance in the logistic model due to only one factor, say factor
Xi' the remaining factors were fixed at a predetermined level (their mean value). The
variance of i(x), considering all factors apart from Xi to be fixed, is then given by
6
In the logistic models of injury risk or injury severity, Xi was a [0,1] indicator function of
either a particular vehicle model or market group, depending on the analysis being
performed. Hence the variance function given above equalled the variance of the coefficient
A 95% confidence interval for the logit function with respect to component Xi is given by
Point estimates and confidence limits in the logistic space were transformed into probability
estimates using the inverse logistic transform given by
4.2
Logistic Models for Each Component
4.2.1
Obtaining the Covariate Models
Before adjusted crashworthiness ratings could be obtained it was necessary to consider
logistic models of each of the crashworthiness components separately to identify possible
factors, other than vehicle design, that might have influenced the crash outcomes. A
stepwise procedure was used to identify which factors had an important influence. This was
done without considering the type of car in the model as the aim was to determine which
other factors were most likely to have an influence across a broad spectrum of crashes.
Furthermore, the car model variable had to be excluded from the logistic modelling process
at this stage because of analysis convergence problems when the car model was competing
against the other factors in the stepwise procedure.
Logistic models were obtained separately for injury risk and injury severity because it was
likely that the various factors would have different levels of influence on these two
probabilities.
The factors considered during this stage of the analysis for both injury risk and injury
severity were
•
••
sex:
nveh:
age:
speedzone:
driver sex (male, female)
driver age (s25 years; 26-59 years; ~60 years)
speed limit at the crash location (s75 km/h; ~80 km/h)
the number of vehicles involved (one vehicle; ~1 vehicle)
These variables were chosen for consideration because they were part of both the Victorian
and New South Wales databases. Other variables were only available from one source and
7
their inclusion would have drastically reduced the number of cases that could have been
included in the analysis.
All data was analysed using the LR procedure of the BMDP statistical package (BMDP,
1988). Estimates of the coefficients of the logit function, 13j1i=1, ... ,k, together with their
associated standard errors, were obtained by maximum likelihood estimation.
In the
modelling process, design variables for the various factors were chosen in such a way that
the estimated coefficients represented deviations of each of the variable levels from the
mean (ie. the BMDP LR marginal method for forming design variables was used).
For both injury risk and injury severity, a stepwise procedure was used to identify which
factors and their interactions made a significant contribution to these probabilities. All
possible first order interactions were considered. A hierarchal structure was imposed so that
if an interaction between two variables was included in the model then the corresponding
main effects would also be included. The resultant logistic regression models were referred
to as the "covariate" models or equations.
The average value of the injury risk or injury severity, and estimated 95% confidence
intervals, were obtained directly from the "covariate" models by substituting mean values of
each of the factors and their interactions into the regression equations.
4.2.2
Assessing Car Model Differences
Injury risk and injury severity for individual cars were estimated after adding a variable
representing car model to the respective logistic "covariate" models. The car model variable
was forced into the logistic equation and individual car model coefficients were computed to
represent deviations of that car from the average. As mentioned earlier, this was to avoid
non-convergence problems in the analysis when car model was allowed to compete with the
other factors in the stepwise selection process.
It was important to ensure that the logistic model adequately described the data and did not
yield individual car model coefficients that were imprecise or unstable. For this reason,
individual car models with small frequencies were pooled with similar car models, if
appropriate (see Section 4.4) or they were excluded from the analysis. Car models were
excluded if, after pooling models, either:
i)
ii)
there were less than 100 involved drivers; or
there were less than 20 injured drivers.
After exclusion, the regression analyses were performed on 109 individual car models (or
pooled similar models). The variable representing car model was therefore categorical with
109 nominal levels. The choice of the design for the logistic model allowed the injury risk
and injury severity estimates for each individual car model to be compared with the overall
(average) rating for all cars.
For each car model, a 95% confidence interval for the logit functions of injury risk and
injury severity was obtained after first adjusting for the average value of the "covariate"
model and then allowing for the deviation from average for that particular car model.
8
Estimates of injury risk and injury severity were obtained by de-transforming the logit
functions as described in Section 4.1.2. A 95% confidence interval was determined after
adjusting for the average values of the significant factors and their interactions.
The
precision of the estimates of injury risk and injury severity is measured by the width of these
95% confidence intervals.
4.2.3
Assessing Market Group Averages
A similar approach to that for individual car models was used to assess car market group
averages. A variable with 8 levels representing the different market groups (large, medium,
small, luxury, sports, 4-wheel drive, passenger vans and commercial vehicles with GVM .:S
3000 Kg) was added to each of the "covariate" models of Section 4.2.1. Deviations of each
market group, from the average, was also assessed. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals
for the estimates of both injury severity and injury risk were also obtained for each of the
market groups.
4.3
Combining the Injury Risk and Injury Severity Components
The final combined ratings of vehicle crashworthiness are given by:
Crashworthiness Rating = Injury risk x Injury severity.
For a given model of car, j, the crashworthiness rating,
C=RxS
J
J
Cj,
was therefore calculated as:
J
where
Rj
Sj
denotes the injury risk for car model j
denotes the injury severity for car model j
Noting the form of the logistic inverse transformation in section 4.1.2 above, we have
where a.i and p .i are the values of the logistic regression function f(X) for injury risk and
injury severity respectively for vehicle model}.
Taking the natural log of the crashworthiness rating and using asymptotic statistical theory,
the asymptotic variance of the log of the crashworthiness rating is
9
where the variances of
aj
and P j are as given in section 4.1.2 and the estimates of
aj
and
P j are considered independent.
The 95% confidence interval for the natural log of the crashworthiness rating is then
The 95% confidence limit for the crashworthiness rating is obtained by taking the exponent
of the confidence limit of the logged crashworthiness rating shown above.
Because each of the two estimated crashworthiness components have been adjusted for the
effect of other factors by logistic regression prior to their incorporation into the combined
ratings, the resultant crashworthiness rating is also adjusted for the influence of these
factors. It should be noted that the confidence interval for the combined rate reflects the
variability in the car model only and not the variability in the other factors included in the
logistic models.
The same procedure was used to obtain crashworthiness ratings of each distinct market
group.
4.4
Individual Car Models
Injury risk and injury severity for individual cars was estimated after adding the car model
to the logistic model described in Section 4.1.
In order to ensure that the logistic model adequately described the data and did not yield
crashworthiness estimates which were imprecise, individual car models with small
frequencies were pooled with similar models (Table 2) or excluded from the analysis. The
car models which were excluded from the analyses are indicated in Appendix 1.
10
Table 2:
Pooled Models of Cars
Laser 82-89
Telstar 83-87
Telstar 88-91
Telstar 92-94
Falcon EA
FalconED
Corsair 89-92
Commodore VR
Commodore VN- VP
Nova 89-93
Astra 84-86
Astra 87
Astra 88-89
Barina 85-88
Barina 89-93
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
with
Apollo JK/JL
Apollo JM
Ford Maverick 88-94
Suzuki Scurry 85-87
Suzuki Sierra 82-94
Nissan XFN Utility
4.5
Mazda 323 82-88
Mazda 62683-86
Mazda 62688-91
Mazda 626 92-94
Falcon EB Series 1
Falcon EB Series 2
Pintara 89-92
Lexcen 93-94
Lexcen 89-92
Corolla 89-93
PulsarN ector 82-86
PulsarNector 87
PulsarN ector 88-90
Suzuki Swift 85-88
Suzuki Swift 89-94
Camry SV21
CamryXVlO
Nissan Patrol 82-94
Holden Carry 85-90
Holden Drover 85-87
Ford Falcon Utility
Market Group Analyses
In addition to the individual car model analyses, logistic regression analyses were performed
based on broad market groups as defined in Section 3. The market group analyses provided
reference ratings for models in each group.
4.6
Trends in the Rating Criteria During 1987-94
In both Victoria and New South Wales there have been major increases in road safety
during the 1990's and this may have produced a general reduction in the risk of serious
injury in crashes as well as reductions in the number of crashes occurring. There was
therefore some concern that there may have been a bias in the crashworthiness ratings which
would have tended to produce a more favourable score for the most recent model cars. This
was because the later model cars (post-1987) have crashed during the later years in 1987-94.
If so, the crashworthiness rating of the later model cars would tend to be lower, irrespective
of design improvements, than would be expected if the general improvements in road safety
had not occurred.
This concern led to a need to investigate whether there were in fact, general reductions in
the risk of driver injury in NSW, and/or driver injury severity in Victoria and NSW, and
whether these changes if present needed to be taken into account in the crashworthiness
ratings of specific years of the same models.
11
4.6.1
Trends in Driver Injury Rate in NSW
The file of drivers involved in crashes in NSW used to measure the driver injury rate, the
first component of the crashworthiness rating, was analysed by the year in which the crash
occurred to assess any trends. There was no evidence of a consistent trend over the period
(Table 3).
The generally increasing number of drivers during each year was due to the increasing pool
of 1982-94 manufactured vehicles on the road (and hence involved in crashes) during the
period 1987 to 1994, off-set by the general reduction in crash involvement.
Table 3: Numbers of drivers of light passenger vehicles manufactured in 1982-94 and
involved in tow-away crashes in NSW during each of the years 1987-94.
4249
33049
Total injured
Total involved
12.9
Injury Rate (%)
4.6.2
4814
32673
14.7
5307
36896
14.4
5573
40208
5410
39200
13.9
13.8
5678
39579
14.3
5843
40859
14.3
6135
42433
14.5
Trends in Driver Injury Severity in Victoria and NSW Combined
The file of drivers injured in crashes in the two States combined was used to assess the trend
in driver injury severity, the second component of the crashworthiness rating. Again there
was no evidence of a consistent trend over the period (Table 4).
Table 4: Numbers of drivers of light passenger vehicles manufactured in 1982-94 and
injured in crashes in Victoria and NSW during each of the years 1987-94.
Total killed or
admitted to hospital
Total injured
Injury Severity (%)
4.6.3
1380
6165
1499
7126
1664
8047
1644
7697
1735
7724
1772
8215
2008
8401
2221
9344
22.4
21.0
20.7
21.4
22.5
21.6
23.9
23.8
Trends in the Combined Rate
The driver injury rate (Table 3) and driver injury severity (Table 4), for each crash year
during 1987-94, were multiplied to form a Combined Rate. The Combined Rate measures
essentially the same risk (ie. of death or hospital admission for drivers involved in tow-away
crashes) as the crashworthiness rating. However it should be noted that it has not been
adjusted for the effect of various factors (eg. driver age and sex, speed zone of the crash,
etc.) in the same way as the rating scores.
As with each of its components, there was no evidence of a consistent trend in the
Combined Rate over the period (Table 5).
12
Table 5: Combined Rate for drivers of light passenger vehicles manufactured in 1982-94
and involved in tow-away crashes during each of the years 1987-94.
Injury Rate (%)
Injury Severity (%)
Combined Rate (%)
12.9
22.4
2.89
14.7
21.0
3.09
14.4
13.9
20.7
21.4
2.98
2.97
13.8
22.5
3.11
14.3
21.6
3.08
14.3
23.9
3.38
14.5
23.8
3.45
It was concluded that there was no evidence of trends in the crashworthiness rating criteria
over the crash years considered and hence there was no need to take account in the analysis
of the fact that later model cars have crashed in the later years.
5.
RESULTS
5.1
Injury Risk
Injury risk was estimated from the data on 305,263 drivers involved in tow-away crashes in
NSW (as described in Section 2.2). This data set is referred to as the "involved drivers".
Because of missing values in one or more of the covariates driver sex and age, speedzone
and number of vehicles involved in crash amongst the 305,263 involved drivers, the final
file used for analysis consisted of the 288,612 drivers for which all the covariate data was
complete. The "covariate" model for injury risk was determined from the variables
described in Section 4.2.1.
All of driver sex and age, speedzone and number of vehicles, along with first order
interactions between speedzone and number of vehicles, sex and number of vehicles, age
and sex, speedzone and age and speedzone and sex and second order interactions between
sex, speedzone and number of vehicles and sex, speedzone and age were significantly
associated with injury risk and were included in the logistic model. No other interaction
term significantly improved the fit of the logistic model.
The overall (average) injury risk for involved drivers in tow-away crashes in NSW, after
adjusting for differences in the factors in the "covariate" model given above, was 12.80 per
100 drivers. In other words, the probability that a driver involved in a tow-away crash in
NSW was injured was 12.8%, after adjusting for other significant factors.
Appendix 2 gives the estimates of injury risk derived by logistic regression for 109
individual car models, or sets of car models. Injury risk ranged from 6.19% for the Peugeot
505 to 26.59% for the Subaru Sherpa/Fiori.
An estimate of the variability in the injury risk estimates was calculated from the width of
the corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Individual confidence interval widths ranged
from 0.86% (Falcon X series Sedan) to 11.21% for the Honda City. The small variability
for the Falcon X series Sedan is not surprising since there were more cars of this model than
any other in the data set and precision is known to improve with increasing sample size.
The estimated injury risk for each market group is also given in Appendix 2. The luxury
vehicles had the lowest injury risk (11.17%) and the passenger van market group had the
highest (16.36%).
13
5.2
Injury Severity
The data on "injured drivers" covered 63,919 drivers of 1982-94 model vehicles who were
injured in crashes in Victoria or NSW during 1987-94 (as described in Section 2.3). Because
of missing values in one or more of the covariates amongst the 63,919 injured drivers, the
final file used for analysis consisted of the 62,725 drivers for which all the covariate data
was complete. The "covariate" model for injury severity was determined from the variables
described in Section 4.2.1.
The analysis identified a number of important factors - driver sex, driver age, speedzone and
number of vehicles in crash. In addition, significant first order interactions were found
between sex and age, speedzone and number of vehicles in crash, speedzone and age and
age and number of vehicles in crash. No other variable or interaction term significantly
improved the fit of the logistic model.
The overall (average) injury severity for injured drivers, after adjusting for differences in the
associated factors, was 20.21 per 100 drivers. In other words, the probability that a driver
injured in a crash was severely injured was 20.21 %, after adjusting for other significant
factors.
Appendix 3 gives the estimates of injury severity derived by logistic regression for 109
individual car models, or sets of combined models. Injury severity ranged from 11.92% for
the Volvo 700 series to 31.42% for the Toyota Supra.
An estimate of the variability in the estimates of injury severity was calculated from the
width of the corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Individual confidence interval widths
ranged from 2.76% (Falcon X series) to 30.19% for the Toyota Supra.
The estimated injury severity for each market group is also given in Appendix 3. As was
the case for injury risk, the luxury vehicles performed best with respect to injury severity (ie
they had the lowest injury severity - 19.29%). The passenger van market group had the
highest injury severity (21.41 %).
5.3
Crashworthiness Ratings
The crashworthiness ratings for each car model and market group were obtained by
multiplying the individual injury risk and injury severity estimates. Because each of the two
components have been adjusted for the confounding factors, the resultant crashworthiness
rating is also adjusted for the influence of them.
Crashworthiness ratings were able to be obtained for the "average" car as well as for each
individual model and market group after adjusting for the confounding factors.
Appendix 4 gives the crashworthiness ratings and the associated 95% confidence intervals
for each of the 109 car models included in the analyses. Each rating is expressed as a
percentage, representing the number of drivers killed or admitted to hospital per 100 drivers
involved in a tow-away crash. Overall ratings for the market groups are also given. The
14
table indicates the overall ranking of the crashworthiness ratings from 1 (lowest or best
crashworthiness rating) to 109 (highest or worst crashworthiness rating).
Each crashworthiness rating is an estimate of the true risk of a driver being killed or
admitted to hospital in a tow-away crash, and as such each estimate has a level of
uncertainty about it. This uncertainty is indicated by the confidence limits in Appendix 4.
There is 95% probability that the confidence interval will cover the true risk of serious
injury (death or hospital admission) to the driver of the particular model of vehicle.
The ratings in Appendix 4 exclude those models where:
•
the width of the confidence interval exceeded 7, or
•
the ratio of the confidence interval width to the rating score exceeded 1.6 (this criterion
was also necessary because smaller confidence intervals tended to occur for the lower
rating scores, but the confidence intervals were relatively wide in proportionate terms).
This exclusion criterion is more stringent than that used by Cameron et al (1994a,b)
reflecting the greater accuracy afforded in the current ratings as a result of larger
quantities of data.
5.4
Comparisons with the All Model Average Rating
The confidence limits can be used to judge whether the true risk of death or hospitalisation
for a driver of a specific model car involved in a tow-away crash is really different from the
overall average for all models, ie. 2.59 per 100 involved drivers. An upper limit below the
average is indicative of superior crashworthiness, whereas a lower limit above the average
suggests inferior crashworthiness. Other models also have crashworthiness ratings at the
low or high end of the scale, but their confidence limits overlap the all model average.
Although such models may also have superior or inferior crashworthiness characteristics,
the data base did not contain sufficient numbers of these models for the data to represent
scientific evidence that this is the case.
Thirteen models had ratings representing evidence of superior crashworthiness because their
upper confidence limits were less than the average rating. Five of these were large cars and
a further five were luxury models. Two were classified as medium cars. The remaining
model was a large four-wheel-drive vehicle. The specific models were (in order of
estimated risk of serious driver injury in a crash, from lowest to highest):
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mitsubishi Magna TR/TS and Verada KR/KS (1991-94 years of manufacture)
Volvo 700 Series (1984-92)
Toyota Cressida (1989-93)
Honda Accord (1986-90)
Peugeot 505 (1982-90)
Subaru Liberty (1989-94)
Volvo 200 Series (1982-92)
Ford Maverick / Nissan Patrol (1988-94)
Toyota CrownlCressida (1982-85)
Ford Falcon EAlEB Series I (1988-March 1992)
15
• Ford Falcon X-Series (1982-88)
• Mitsubishi Magna (1985-90)
• Holden Commodore VNNP (1987-93) / Toyota Lexcen (1989-92).
Twenty three models had ratings representing evidence of inferior crashworthiness
because their lower confidence limits were greater than the average rating. Thirteen were
small cars, four were light commercial vehicles, two were families of passenger vans, two
were medium cars, one was a small four-wheel-drive vehicle, and the remaining model was
a sports car. The specific models were (in order of estimated risk of serious driver injury in
a crash, from highest to lowest):
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
6.
Subaru Sherpa/Fiori (1982-92)
Suzuki Mighty Boy (1985-88)
Daihatsu Handivan (1982-90)
Honda City (1983-86)
Holden Scurry (1985-86) / Suzuki Carry (1982-90)
Toyota Supra (1982-90)
Daihatsu Charade (1982-86)
Subaru Brumby (1982-92)
Suzuki Hatch (1982-85)
Mazda 121 (1987-90) / Ford Festiva (1991-93)
Nissan Gazelle (1984-88)
Holden Barina (1985-88) / Suzuki Swift (1985-88)
Hyundai Excel (1982-89)
Mitsubishi passenger vans (1982-94)
Honda Civic (1984-87)
Daihatsu Charade (1988-92)
Nissan passenger vans (1982-92)
Holden Astra (1984-86) / Nissan PulsarN ector (1982-86)
Suzuki Sierra (1982-94) / Holden Drover (1985-87)
Toyota Hiace/Liteace (1982-94)
Mitsubishi Colt (1982-90)
Holden Camira (1982-89)
Mazda 323 (1982-88) / Ford Laser/Meteor (1982-89).
CONCLUSIONS
Additional crash data has enabled the crashworthiness ratings to be obtained for a larger
range of car models than previously. The new data set has been able to produce more up-todate and reliable estimates of the crashworthiness of individual car models than those
published previously.
The rating scores estimate the risk of a driver being killed or admitted to hospital when
involved in a tow-away crash, to a degree of accuracy represented by the confidence limits
of the rating in each case. The estimates and their associated confidence limits are
sufficiently sensitive that they are able to identify 36 models of passenger cars, four-wheel
drive vehicles, passenger vans and light commercial vehicles which have superior or inferior
crashworthiness characteristics compared with the average vehicle.
16
7.
ASSUMPTIONS AND QUALIFICATIONS
The results and conclusions presented in this report are based on a number of assumptions
and warrant a number of qualifications which the reader should note. These are listed in the
following sections.
7.1
Assumptions
It has been assumed that:
•
TAC claims records and NSW Police crash reports accurately recorded driver injury,
hospitalisation and death.
•
There was no bias in the merging of TAC claims and Victorian Police crash reports
related to the model of car and factors affecting the severity of the crash.
•
Crashed vehicle registration numbers were recorded accurately on Police crash reports
and that they correctly identified the crashed vehicles in the Victorian and NSW vehicle
registers.
•
The adjustments for driver sex, age, speed zone and the number of vehicles involved
removed the influences of the main factors available in the data which affected crash
severity and injury susceptibility.
•
7.2
The form of the logistic models used to relate injury risk and injury severity with the
available factors influencing these outcomes (including the car models) was correct.
Qualifications
The results and conclusions warrant at least the following qualifications:
•
Only driver crash involvements and injuries have been considered.
occupying the same model cars may have had different injury outcomes.
•
Some models with the same name through the 1982-94 years of manufacture may have
varied substantially in their construction and mass. Although there should be few such
models in these updated results, the rating score calculated for these models may give a
misleading impression and should be interpreted with caution.
•
Other factors not collected in the data (eg. crash speed) may differ between the models
and may affect the results. However, earlier analysis has suggested that the different
rating scores are predominantly due to vehicle factors alone (Cameron et alI992).
17
Passengers
REFERENCES
BMDP Inc. (1988), BMDP statistical software manual. ChiefEd: WJ Dixon. University of
California Press, Berkeley.
CAMERON, M.H., FINCH, C.F., and LE, T. (1994a), "Vehicle Crashworthiness Ratings:
Victoria and NSW Crashes During 1987-92 - Summary Report". Report No. 55, Monash
University Accident Research Centre,
CAMERON, M.H., FINCH, C.F., and LE, T. (1994b), "Vehicle Crashworthiness Ratings:
Victoria and NSW Crashes During 1987-92 - Technical Report". Report No. 58, Monash
University Accident Research Centre.
CAMERON, M.H., MACH, T., and NEIGER, D. (1992), "Vehicle Crashworthiness
Ratings: Victoria 1983-90 and NSW 1989-90 Crashes - Summary Report". Report No. 28,
Monash University Accident Research Centre.
GREEN, P. (1990), "Victorian Road Accident Database: Frequency Tables for Accident
Data Fields: 1988". Accident Studies Section, VIC ROADS.
GUSTAFSSON, H., HAGG, A., KRAFFT, M., KULLGREN, A., MALMSTEDT, B.,
NYGREN, A., and TINGVALL, C. (1989), "Folksam Car Model Safety Rating 1989-90".
Folksam, Stockholm.
HOSMER, D.W., and LEMESHOW, S. (1989), "Applied Logistic Regression".
New York.
Wiley,
PAPP AS, M. (1993), "NSW Vehicle Occupant Protection Ratings Documentation".
to NRMA Ltd. and Road Safety Bureau, Roads and Traffic Authority, NSW.
Report
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE
Protection". Parliament of Victoria.
(1990),
18
"Inquiry
into Vehicle
Occupant
APPENDIX 1
MAKES AND MODELS OF CARS INVOLVED IN
VICTORIAN AND NSW CRASHES DURING 1987-94
•• 0
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•
APPENDIX 2
LOGISTIC REGRESSION ESTIMATES OF
INJURY RISK BY MODEL AND MARKET GROUP
APPENDIX'xLS--PR(RISK)
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
Magna TRlTS
I
I
13.69
14.20
13.56
12.32
11.04
16.34
4.02
11.01
10.38
10.29
17.66
12.83
22.53
9.68
8.84
6.02
9.38
20.17
18.05
10.89
11.25
10.26
8.76
12.70
10.89
10.10
10.08
12.20
7.96
16.54
5.51
11.09
10.67
11.67
11.52
0.86
11.63
13.14
2.85
11.98
3.36
9.66
8.07
11.52
22.44
3.45
4.39
14.34
11.56
5.58
1.29
12.92
7.65
11.00
19.50
6.59
3.36
12.91
11.30
8.33
6.83
9.44
7.28
10.91
10.12
14.77
3.30
3.88
25.84
21.36
30.86
9.50
21.63
32.10
10.47
9.87
7.41
13.03
11.55
5.62
1.47
10.05
12.60
10.55
14.12
3.58
16.17
15.72
17.37
14.55
13.25
16.95
2.40
9.19
10.56
11.71
9.51
2.19
11.71
11.24
12.21
0.97
13.69
1.71
12.15
15.19
4.87
4.28
13.14
3.46
4.64
18.93
5.24
12.63
2.53
Ford 26.52
7.53
11.32
15.94
9.19
10.79
ED Series I
Falcon EB
I
88-Mar92
Apr92-94
Lexcen
Rodeo
VH-VL
85-90
X
Series
VR
4Runner/Hilux
Falcon
Maverick
Drover
Sierra
Navara
HiaceILiteace
Lexcen
Patrol82-87
UTE
Shuttle
Commodore
VNNP
Delta
82-90
84-94
EB
Series
WB
Series
Landcruiser
Patrol88-94
720UTE
85-87
86-94
EA
XFNUTE
Panel
Van 11
82-94
Vitara88-94
82-85
93-94
85-86
89-92
882-88
82-92
2-87
Verada
KRlKS
88-90
87-93
91-94
90-94
82-89
88-94
85-88
Magna
Skyline
Carry
Rocky
F70175/80
CamryXV
10
Brumby
ApolloJM
Scurry
Mighty
Boy
Pajero
APPENDIX.XLS-PR(R1SK)
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
I
13.68
13.22
10.75
12.41
14.12
1.71
12.99
10.84
4.32
15.24
10.83
10.17
11.12
12.04
12.74
11.32
10.52
9.63
13.50
14.31
14.34
6.20
8.32
13.47
11.21
11.55
11.10
4.90
10.63
9.10
8.80
5.55
7.66
15.48
16.00
11.83
14.66
9.44
10.36
10.14
10.00
9.20
6.61
14.02
7.11
8.02
13.09
12.34
13.91
1.56
6.51
14.23
2.40
21.00
12.25
11.40
12.79
12.80
15.30
3.16
4.77
1.49
6.16
7.98
10.28
4.79
9.01
4.12
11.85
11.83
8.41
7.12
10.02
10.22
15.19
9.92
18.15
14.02
15.72
2.80
6.94
4.00
4.17
1.72
10.77
12.38
12.28
9.43
11.49
2.85
2.69
3.27
6.35
7.37
5.61
7.79
5.23
10.49
10.26
4.94
5.03
8.44
6.56
10.81
21.27
16.34
4.25
1.68
11.57
10.34
12.92
2.58
9.27
7.17
12.40
11.89
14.23
12.66
7.60
4.38
7.13
6.05
4.72
6.42
7.54
5.56
10.16
17.25
13.14
1.74
13.69
3.47
12.05
5.70
5.12
4.60
Mercedes
10.06
8.80Benz 10.74
Bluebird
Corona
505
626IMX6
Camira
Gazelle
Fairlane
Z
Telstar
6261MX6
929
Stanza
3Range
Series
5Prairie
900
82-86
Nimbus
1800ILeone
6-88
3-86
300
882-94
2-83
2-85
N&
Corsair
Pintara
200
Crown/Cressida
Series
Cressida
82-89
84-86
& LTD
LTD FD
Accord
700
100
83-94
6-90
84-91
3-87
82-94
88-92
982-85
2-94
84-88
8-91
86-88
89-93
82-87
88-91
83-86
84-92
82-93
89-92
82-92
89-91
9-92
92-94
89-94
Liberty
Carnry
Jaguar
CarnrySV21
Sigma/Scorpion
Apollo
JK/JL
Rover
6.52
4.22
APPENDIX.XLS--PR(R1SK) BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
12.80
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
I
I
Toyota15.98
15.12
15.21
12.37
16.24
9.33
6.90
20.28
22.26
18.44
3.82
22.17
17.93
19.08
21.81
14.02
16.85
21.54
4.69
8.69
13.31
11.50
16.13
6.69
16.72
14.88
14.23
14.58
14.24
12.50
12.33
12.21
14.45
3.70
4.82
2.11
13.94
13.03
11.58
9.44
26.29
26.59
21.90
31.14
31.56
9.24
9.39
24.98
20.13
26.30
15.09
22.70
28.47
11.21
6.65
12.49
12.01
11.47
10.90
13.25
2.35
17.91
17.63
15.40
21.72
7.49
17.40
11.76
13.55
10.56
9.77
15.40
18.83
17.25
3.90
2.70
18.74
3.86
10.75
17.15
16.54
4.34
15.62
14.66
15.82
1.16
1.98
14.12
13.66
14.06
12.77
15.19
2.17
5.06
13.10
14.70
12.66
10.34
13.47
16.75
16.03
2.56
7.31
14.62
13.14
16.24
3.10
14.18
11.41
13.58
20.72
5.32
4.36
16.79
18.93
16.65
4.05
14.55
1.78
17.95
3.72
16.44
6.11
17.45
6.05
Barina
Hatch82-85
Handivan
Gemini
RB
323
121 87-90
Corolla
91-94
Laser
Lancer
Barina
Pu1sarN
Civic
ector
Charade
Festiva
Pulsar92-94
85-88
82-90
82-92
83-86
82-86
PulsarN
Aslra
Civic
82-94
Cordia
91-93
Swift
LaserlMeteor
Excel90-94
82-84
88-91
Excel
86-87
Nova
Colt
89-94
82-89
84-87
89-93
86-88
982-88
88-92
1-93
82-83
84-86
886-93
3-89
90-93
Sherpa/Fiori
City
Applause
Passenger
Vans
Tarago
APPENDIX.XLS-PR(RISK)
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
I
ToyOI' 9.69
9.22
10.34
12.66
12.41
10.56
6.79
10.19
17.15
6.90
4.00
7.93
13.82
11.78
22.53
18.25
7.91
13.10
IOM
10.85
9.56
16.65
4.87
12.04
13.69
14.23
14.55
4.04
16.46
10.75
12.76
13.00
15.72
6.61
7.29
16.85
12.80
33 89-94
83-92
RX7
Celic.86-89
Prelnde
Celic.82-85
Celic.90-93
82-90
882-85
6-88
84-91
C.pri
Supra
Integr.
APPENDIX 3
LOGISTIC REGRESSION ESTIMATES OF
INJURY SEVERITY BY MODEL AND MARKET GROUP
APPENDIJCXLS-PR(SEVERE)
BY MKT GRP
CWR fur NSW - VIC (87-94)
Falcon ED
EB Series I
Magna TR/TS
I
I
Holden22.03
20.19
20.25
20.37
20.14
14.55
14.89
20.90
14.42
8.08
17.95
14.83
20.34
20.08
18.28
21.48
18.72
2.76
23.16
18.82
4.35
9.24
31.04
21.14
20.76
16.86
10.40
15.24
8.57
18.57
16.34
17.48
17.54
11.42
25.90
10.73
14.48
16.82
10.52
20.53
9.05
10.02
19.43
20.88
13.08
31.68
18.60
17.17
10.29
23.16
24.49
28.59
16.96
26.32
27.00
38.39
13.91
14.59
16.02
21.46
22.62
18.40
13.37
13.88
27.27
24.77
17.80
11.41
14.95
17.82
14.01
29.85
13.00
22.86
16.85
5.04
25.17
23.96
16.77
13.18
16.39
33.63
21.17
17.23
7.99
25.76
17.68
4.83
16.43
21.71
17.80
26.18
8.38
20.51
23.90
6.43
29.10
20.04
20.87
22.41
2.98
25.20
16.60
13.34
8.25
8.70
26.73
28.71
11.78
14.71
33.29
18.47
22.56
14.83
4.28
28.84
12.41
22.10
12.86
I
Lexcen
Rodeo
VNIVP
Lexcen
X
Series
Drover
Hiace/Liteace
XFNVTE
Navara
Delta
Shuttle
Panel
Van II 18.61
82-88
9-92
5-90
VH-VL
4Runner/Hilux
Landcruiser
Commodore
720VTE
82-85
VR
Patrol82-87
86-94
Maverick
Vitara88-94
EB
Series
Falcon
VTE
87-93
93-94
84-94
85-86
82-90
VeradaKRIKS
Sierra82-94
85-87
88-90
WB
Patrol88-94
Series
EA
882-94
2-87
90-94
82-89
88-94
85-88
82-92
91-94
CamryXV
10
Carry
Magna
Rocky
F70/75/80
Skyline
Brumby
ApolloJM
Scurry
Mighty
Boy
Pajero
88-Mar92
Apr92-94
APPENDIX.XLS-PR(SEVERE)
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIe (87-94)
I
I
Volvo21.60
21.22
19.02
13.65
10.29
24.85
28.90
18.69
23.61
17.46
9.68
34.83
11.22
20.16
21.36
19.56
12.58
17.55
18.18
12.09
34.94
38.30
22.85
25.54
23.20
19.54
12.48
17.34
30.35
13.01
22.62
17.92
27.84
10.90
17.11
16.66
21.02
13.21
21.93
19.23
19.14
IU8
25.90
12.25
14.54
33.07
34.07
16.61
23.14
24.42
17.43
17.45
16.94
13.27
30.84
12.75
9.45
38.01
14.57
9.10
6.84
21.74
23.44
19.51
17.75
22.26
21.79
4.08
4.25
17.65
32.15
8.82
22.17
28.20
29.23
16.74
11.08
13.11
8.10
10.27
17.30
17.55
18.90
18.44
15.88
11.06
41.84
22.41
9.72
27.00
26.59
16.10
9.93
16.92
27.14
10.21
20.96
31.68
17.27
25.20
7.93
20.55
20.23
11.92
22.26
18.30
22.56
18.03
23.01
6.00
16.25
4.72
4.54
26.56
41.32
15.66
24.92
25.66
5.68
29.98
18.40
23.39
24.20
28.46
20.15
19.00
17.35
9.85
21.33
3.57
23.32
20.53
23.76
12.43
IU8
28.84
29.10
24.73
18.04
19.12
6.53
18.46
505
Gazelle
100
Prairie
3900
929
Pintara
Corona
Corsair
Fairlane
N
300
Series
200
84-88
5Accord
Series
84-86
Telstar
Camira
Crown/Cressida
Z&
6-88
626/MX6
Stanza
& LTD
LTD FD
700
Bluebird
82-92
2-85
83-94
Cressida
Nimbus
1800ILeone
82-94
89-94
83-86
82-85
882-90
988-92
84-91
2-83
2-94
89-92
82-87
82-86
9-91
82-94
82-93
92-94
89-93
82-89
3-87
86-88
9-92
6-90
88-91
84-92
8-91
Camry
CamrySV21
ApolloJK/JL
Jaguar
Range
Rover
Liberty
Sigma/Seorpion
APPENDlX.XLS-PR(SEVERE)
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
I
21.38
Toyota21.72
I
17.43
29.98
9.41
20.57
34.62
12.21
21.25
26.59
16.69
24.34
16.87
20.63
13.02
22.82
25.16
14.73
19.83
20.37
17.17
31.68
19.60
8.82
18.06
21.09
17.58
14.42
28.11
22.41
21.66
14.12
31.79
17.67
9.90
33.74
16.87
27.38
27.62
19.15
43.10
16.13
37.52
26.97
18.37
21.63
16.83
10.57
21.86
20.34
21.01
18.72
14.75
24.77
17.70
25.34
12.65
18.06
6.63
7.07
23.23
26.94
25.49
23.61
21.95
16.85
36.10
22.86
25.48
32.61
14.79
18.97
12.08
5.70
20.44
23.01
25.06
4.95
17.32
18.47
26.04
6.88
8.72
22.05
22.30
20.73
19.86
18.47
27.40
17.48
27.27
15.39
21.33
11.88
2.86
18.07
19.00
19.65
15.70
13.76
17.37
22.10
20.69
4.73
5.00
13.23
21.64
8.41
19.17
19.61
12.54
28.20
15.65
11.63
31.08
17.13
14.23
10.66
5.11
7.48
13.73
34.07
20.35
9.93
25.63
11.86
17.03
20.21
Laser
Excel
Civic
Charade
323
Festiva
Laser/Meteor
Civic
121 91-94
91-93
84-87
Handivan
82-89
82-92
87-90
PulsarN
ector
Lancer
GeminiRB
Astea
Nova
Pulsar92-94
Excel90-94
Corolla
Swift
Gemini
Hatch82-85
82-90
83-86
82-86
86-88
82-94
Cordia
88-92
84-86
82-88
82-83
86-93
Barina
Colt
90-93
883-89
88-91
2-88
86-87
85-88
82-84
89-93
89-94
Sherpa/Fiori
City
Applause
Passenger
Vans
Tarago
APPENDIX.xLS--PR(SEVERE)
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
Honda22.61
I
16.43
28.24
18.26
44.07
27.64
25.93
16.48
31.42
48.45
26.81
14.42
40.97
15.01
20.02
14.51
23.47
12.87
32.26
36.61
23.74
15.78
15.04
16.90
10.34
10.19
21.64
30.19
44.38
29.97
25.97
27.00
12.49
26.46
11.45
16.12
20.21
RX7
89-94
Celica86-89
33
Prelnde
Celica90-93
Celica82-85
82-85
82-90
883-92
6-88
84-91
Capn
Snpra
Integra
APPENDIX 4
CRASHWORTHINESS RATINGS OF
1982-94 MODELS OF CARS INVOLVED IN
CRASHES DURING 1987-94
,
~A'"
,,-
-
APPENDIX.XLS--CWR
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
2.59
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
Ford
Nissan
Maverick
Patrol
88-94
88-94
1.70
15
1.13
2.56
1.43
0.84
Toyota
Landcruiser
90-94
1.97
21
1.18
3.29
2.11
1.07
Nissan
Patrol
82-87
2.16
27
1.34
3.47
2.12
0.99
Milsnbishi
Pajero
82-94
2.29
34
1.65
3.17
1.53
0.67
Toyota
Landcruiser
82-89
2.56
53
2.05
3.19
1.15
0.45
Toyota
4RuuuerIHilux
82-94
2.60
56
2.25
3.00
0.75
0.29
Suzuki
Vitara
88-94
2.69
62
1.60
4.50
2.90
1.08
Daibalsn
Rocky F70175/80
84-94
3.03
80
1.76
5.21
3.44
1.14
Holden
Suzuki
Drover
Sierra
85-87
82-94
3.38
87
2.61
4.39
1.78
0.53
Ford
Falcon Panel Van
82-94
1.81
18
1.26
2.60
1.35
0.74
Ford
Nissan
Falcon UTE
XFNUTE
82-94
88-90
2.19
29
1.75
2.74
0.99
0.45
Nissan
Navara
86-94
2.34
36
1.66
3.30
1.64
0.70
Daibalsn
Delta
82-94
2.38
39
1.50
3.77
2.26
0.95
Holden
WB Series
82-85
2.43
41
1.72
3.44
1.72
0.71
Holden
Rodeo
82-94
2.55
3.55
1.71
0.67
Nissan
720UTE
82-85
2.73
3.89
1.98
0.72
Holden
Shnttle
82-87
2.92
5.58
4.05
1.39
Toyota
Hiace/Liteace
82-94
3.22
3.84
1.13
0.35
Snbaru
Brumby
82-92
5.02
6.62
2.81
0.56
Holden
Suzuki
Scurry
85-86
82-90
5.34
8.48
5.11
0.96
Carry
Suzuki
Mighty Boy
85-88
6.19
9.28
5.15
0.83
Mitsnbishi
Verada KR/KS
91-94
91-94
1.10
1.79
1.12
1.02
MaguaTR/TS
ApolloJM
CamryXV 10
93-94
93-94
1.47
2.82
2.05
1.39
Toyota
Holden
Commodore VR
2.84
1.91
1.18
Lexcen
93-94
93-94
1.62
Toyota
Ford
Falcon EA
Falcon EB Series I
88-Mar92
2.01
2.32
0.58
0.29
Ford
Falcon EB Series II
Falcon ED
Apr92-94
2.02
2.83
1.39
0.68
Holden
Ford
Falcon X Series
82-88
2.23
2.41
0.35
0.16
Milsnbishi
Magna
85-90
2.24
2.53
0.54
0.24
Holden
Commodore VNIVP
2.57
0.54
0.24
Lexcen
87-93
89-92
2.28
Toyota
Holden
Commodore VH-VL
82-88
2.44
2.65
0.40
0.16
Nissan
Skyline
82-90
2.52
3.17
1.16
0.46
••
, Rankings
are based
on serious
injury rate specified
to a higher
precision
than
shown
here
APPENDIX.xLS-.(;WR
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIe (87-94)
2.59
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
Volvo
700 Series
84-92
1.10
Toyota
Cressida
89-93
Honda
Accord
BMW
2.24
1.70
1.54
1.10
2.22
1.67
1.52
86-90
1.31
2.20
1.42
1.08
5 Series
82-94
1.31
2.61
1.95
1.48
Toyota
CrownlCressida
86-88
1.38
2.86
2.20
1.60
Mercedes Benz
300 Series
82-93
1.53
2.63
1.74
1.14
Volvo
200 Series
82-92
1.60
2.30
1.18
0.74
Range Rover
Range Rover
82-93
1.61
2.77
1.84
1.14
Ford
Fairlane N & LTD D
89-94
1.65
2.71
1.71
1.04
Toyota
CrownlCressida
82-85
1.72
2.51
1.32
0.77
SAAB
900
82-93
1.76
3.31
2.38
1.36
Mercedes Benz
100 Series
83-94
1.90
3.87
2.94
1.55
Mercedes Benz
200 Series
82-94
2.05
3.60
2.44
1.19
Honda
Accord
82-85
2.36
3.35
1.70
0.72
Ford
Fairlane Z & LTD F
82-87
2.42
3.02
1.07
0.44
Jagnar
Jagnar
82-94
2.44
4.40
3.04
1.24
BMW
3 Series
82-94
2.47
3.39
1.60
0.65
Mazda
929
82-94
2.62
3.51
1.54
0.59
Peugeot
505
82-90
1.32
2.55
1.86
1.41
Subaru
Liberty
89-94
1.48
2.50
1.62
1.10
Ford
Mazda
Telstar
626IMX6
88-91
88-91
2.14
2.80
1.17
0.55
Ford
Mazda
Telstar
6261MX6
92-94
92-94
2.15
3.83
2.63
1.22
Ford
Nissan
Corsair
Pintara
89-91
89-92
2.33
3.05
1.28
0.55
Mitsubishi
Nimbus
84-91
2.37
4.30
3.00
1.27
Toyota
Corona
82-87
2.44
2.77
0.63
0.26
Subaru
1800ILeone
82-94
2.45
2.98
0.96
0.39
Nissan
Pintara
86-88
2.51
3.28
1.36
0.54
Mitsubishi
Sigma/Scorpion
82-85
2.56
2.89
0.63
0.24
Nissan
Stanza
82-83
2.64
4.55
3.02
Holden
Apollo JK/JL
CamrySV21
89-92
88-92
2.69
3.B
0.80
Toyota
Nissan
Bluebird
82-86
2.72
3.10
0.71
Ford
Mazda
Telstar
6261MX6
83-87
83-86
2.89
3.25
0.68
Holden
Camira
82-89
3.02
3.36
0.65
Toyota
Canny
83-86
3.17
4.65
2.50
Nissan
Prairie
84-86
3.70
6.95
4.97
Nissan
Gazelle
84-88
4.40
6.47
3.48
2
0.54
APPENDIX'xLS-CWR
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW· VIC (87-94)
ALL MODEL
2.59
AVERAGE
83-89
3.13
83
2.48
3.94
1.45
0.46
Vans
82-92
3.63
92
2.77
4.76
2.00
0.55
Vans
82-94
3.78
96
3.17
4.51
1.34
0.35
Applause
89-94
2.16
28
1.13
4.13
3.00
1.39
Holden
Nova
89-93
2.52
49
2.08
3.06
0.99
0.39
Toyota
Corolla
90-93
Toyota
Corolla
82-84
2.54
51
2.17
2.98
0.81
0.32
Holden
GeminiRB
86-87
2.64
58
1.52
4.58
3.06
1.16
Hyundai
Excel
90-94
2.65
3.80
1.95
0.74
Honda
Civic
82-83
2.70
4.44
2.80
1.04
Mazda
323
90-93
2.72
4.30
2.59
0.95
Holden
Barina
89-93
2.72
3.57
1.49
0.55
Suzuki
Swift
89-94
2.73
3.25
0.96
0.35
Toyota
Tarago
Nissan
Passenger
Mitsubishi
Passenger
Daihatsu
88-92
Holden
Astra
Nissan
PulsarN
Honda
Civic
88-91
2.73
3.90
1.99
0.73
Toyota
Corolla
86-88
2.79
3.21
0.78
0.28
Nissan
Pulsar
92-94
2.82
4.85
3.21
1.14
Holden
Gemini
82-84
2.92
3.44
0.97
0.33
Mitsubishi
Lancer
86-93
2.95
4.09
1.95
0.66
Mitsubishi
Cordia
82-88
2.96
4.21
2.12
0.72
Ford
Laser/Meteor
82-89
3.02
3.28
0.50
0.16
Mazda
323
82-88
Mitsubishi
Colt
82-90
3.07
3.52
0.85
0.28
3.15
4.18
1.81
0.57
3.45
3.93
0.90
0.26
Ford
Laser
ector
88-91
91-93
84-86
Holden
Astra
Nissan
PulsarN
Mazda
121
91-94
3.45
5.41
3.20
0.93
Daihatsu
Charade
88-92
3.69
4.75
1.89
0.51
Honda
Civic
84-87
3.74
4.86
1.97
0.53
Hyundai
Excel
82-89
3.81
5.02
2.13
0.56
Holden
Barina
85-88
4.28
5.23
1.74
0.41
Suzuki
Swift
85-88
Ford
Festiva
91-93
4.83
7.19
3.95
0.82
Mazda
121
87-90
Suzuki
Hatch
82-85
4.90
6.79
3.26
0.67
Daihatsu
Charade
82-86
5.14
6.48
2.41
0.47
Honda
City
83-86
5.56
9.81
6.67
1.20
Daihatsu
Handivan
82-90
5.69
8.87
5.21
0.91
Subaru
Sherpa/Fiori
82-92
6.47
9.57
5.19
0.80
ector
82-86
Rankings
are based
on serious
injury rate specified
to a higher
precision
than
shown
here
APPENDIX.xLS-CWR
BY MKT GRP
CWR for NSW - VIC (87-94)
2.59
ALL MODEL AVERAGE
Honda
2.00
91
90
2.60
1.28
30
19
2.20
1.81
1.99
4.451.24
3.58
2.09
1.58
1.33
3.671.27
1.77
47
55
72
82
0.71
2.48
2.88
3.07
2.86
104
1.23
5.17
1.20
.76
0.85
63.731.44
.43
1.75
32.471.12
2.430.79
4.52
.06
.52
.25
6.481.25
91.54
6.40
.34
254.40
.74
33
Celica90-93
883-92
6-88
RX7
82-85
89-94
Celica86-89
Celica82-85
Prelude
84-91
Integra
Capri 82-90
Supra
Rankings
are based
on serious
injury rate specified
to a higher
precision
than
shown
here