Outlook and Policy
Considerations for AZ
Field Crops
by
Russell Tronstad
University of Arizona, Dept. of
Agricultural and Resource Economics
Risk Management Agency
Arizona Crop Acres, 1990-2012
1,400
Thousand Acres
Annual
% Change
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Total
-0.9%
Other Crops
Citrus
0.9%
-3.1%
Vegetables
2.4%
Feed Grains
0.7%
Wheat
-2.1%
Alfalfa/Hay
1.2%
Pima Cotton
-7.9%
Upland
Cotton
-3.1%
2010
Source: Arizona Agricultural Statistics, various years
1
Arizona Cash Receipts, 1990-2010
4.0
Annual
% Change
Billion 2010 Dollars
Total
0.2%
Govt. Payments -0.1%
Other Livestock -0.8%
3.5
3.0
Dairy Products
2.7%
2.5
Cattle & Calves -1.3%
2.0
1.5
1.0
Other Crops
Citrus
3.0%
-7.2%
Other Veg.
& Melons
2.7%
Lettuce
0.5
Wheat
Hay
Cotton
0.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
6.7%
-0.6%
-0.6%
-6.4%
Source: Arizona Agricultural Statistics, various years
Note: Revenues are deflated by the Consumer Price Index for all goods, 1982-84=100
US Grain Production, 1988-2012
20.0
Annual
% Change
Billion Bushels
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
Total
2.4%
Soybeans
Sorghum
Barley
2.2%
-3.4%
-1.1%
Wheat
1.0%
Corn
3.2%
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: NASS/USDA, various years
2
Selected US Crop Values, 90-11
160.0
Annual
% Change
2012 Billion Dollars
140.0
Total
Hay
Cotton
2.5%
-0.3%
-0.9%
120.0
Soybeans
3.1%
Sorghum
Barley
-2.3%
-3.0%
80.0
Wheat
1.0%
60.0
Corn
3.2%
100.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: NASS/USDA, various years
US Corn Supply & Price, 88-13
3
US Corn Utilization, 1988-2013
Utilization of US Corn Production
4
World Corn Ending Stocks, 88-12
World Stocks-to-Use Ratios
35%
World Stocks-to-Use Ratios
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2002/03
Wheat
2004/05
Coarse Grains
2006/07
2008/09
2010/11
2012/13
Crop Year
5
Cotton Supply & Utilization
Global Cotton Stocks & Price
6
US All Hay Supply & Use, 88-13
US Hay Stocks & Production
7
Per Acre AZ Crop Revenues, 00-13
$2,500
$/Acre (2012 dollars)
$2,000
Wheat Durum
Cotton Upland
Corn For Grain
Cotton Amer. Pima
Barley
Hay Alfalfa (Dry)
Sorghum For Grain
$1,500
$1,000
$500
Forecast
$0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Crop Year
Index of AZ Crop Revenues, 00-13
300% 2000 = 100%
Wheat Durum
250%
Cotton Upland
Corn For Grain
Cotton Amer. Pima
Barley
Hay Alfalfa (Dry)
Sorghum For Grain
200%
150%
100%
Forecast
50%
0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Crop Year
8
Policy Considerations
•
•
•
•
•
Ethanol Tax Credit / Blend Wall
FARRM (Federal Ag. Reform and
Risk Mgmt. Act of 2012
Repeal Direct & Counter Cyclical
Payments
Farm Risk Mgmt. Election
SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition
Assistance Program)
FARRM $ Changes
9
Risk Mgmt. Election -- 2 options
• One time election: crop & farm
• Price Loss Coverage (multi-yr
price declines)
+ complement crop insurance
+ modern ylds. & cost of prod. index
• Revenue Loss Coverage
+ county wide losses
+ yield plugs & cost of prod. for price
10