Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Biological Control journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ybcon Population genetics of the predatory lady beetle Hippodamia convergens Arun Sethuraman a,b,⇑, Fredric J. Janzen b, John Obrycki c a Center for Computational Genetics and Genomics, Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19102, United States Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50010, United States c Department of Entomology, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY 40546, United States b h i g h l i g h t s g r a p h i c a l a b s t r a c t Variation at 7 microsatellite loci was determined in 117 adults from 11 populations of Hippodamia convergens. Detected the presence of genetic population structure (at least K = 2 subpopulations). Population demography was explained using a source-sink model. Determined a steep and recent population size decline in Eastern populations. a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 5 September 2014 Accepted 17 January 2015 Available online 29 January 2015 Keywords: Augmentative release Population structure Source-sink model Bayesian MCMC Microsatellite Demography a b s t r a c t Quantifying non-target effects of augmentative releases on populations of conspecifics is key to understanding the long-term impacts of augmentation biological control. Potential deleterious (and advantageous) allelic variation carried over to augmented populations from ‘source’ populations could shape adaptive evolutionary trajectories. Variation at seven microsatellite loci was determined in 117 adults from 11 populations (2 populations from California, 1 from Arizona, 1 from South America, and 7 from regions east of the Rocky Mountains in the United States [hereafter, Eastern]) of the widely distributed predatory lady beetle, Hippodamia convergens Guerin (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae). Our study was designed to examine possible introgression of genes from adult H. convergens that are mass-collected in California annually and released in eastern North America for augmentative biological control. The average observed heterozygosity was 0.44 and all loci were polymorphic (mean = 20.57 alleles/locus). The number of genetically distinct subpopulations of H. convergens was estimated to be at least two. Our analyses indicate that Californian multilocus genotypes are admixed within Eastern populations of H. convergens. We also determined the sizes of California populations to be larger than all sampled Eastern populations, suggesting recent declines in the latter. Additional study of the population demography of H. convergens and its local ecological adaptations is required to determine if these augmentative releases are causing large-scale non-target effects. Ó 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction ⇑ Corresponding author at: Center for Computational Genetics and Genomics, Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA 19102, United States. E-mail addresses: arun@temple.edu (A. Sethuraman), fjanzen@iastate.edu (F.J. Janzen), john.obrycki@uky.edu (J. Obrycki). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocontrol.2015.01.002 1049-9644/Ó 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. An understanding of population-level differences in widely-distributed species transported or manipulated by humans may be critical to our understanding of the consequences of these activities. Repeated releases of organisms in a new environment may result in population mixing and hybridization, e.g., the commercial 2 A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 use of bumblebees for pollination (Kraus et al., 2011), frogs for medicinal purposes (Zhang et al., 2013), and releases of non-native frogs in Europe (Holsbeek et al., 2009). Similarly, human-assisted movement and release of insect parasitoids and predators for suppression of insect pests, which represents one of the major practices of biological control (O’Neil and Obrycki, 2009), has associated risks that may affect non-target organisms. Potential non-target effects of importation biological control, which attempts to permanently establish exotic species to reduce populations of introduced pests, have received considerable attention (e.g., Howarth, 1991; Follett et al., 2000; Louda et al., 2003). For example, the effects of two introduced species of predatory Coccinellidae, Coccinella septempunctata and Harmonia axyridis, on native North American species have been the focus of numerous studies during the past four decades (e.g., review by Obrycki et al., 2000; Brown, 2003; Harmon et al., 2007; Moser and Obrycki, 2009; Kajita et al., 2012). In contrast, relatively few studies have focused on the potential non-target effects of augmentative releases (review by Van Lenteren et al., 2003; Bjornson, 2008; Michaud et al., 2012), in which repeated releases of a natural enemy are made without the expectation of permanent establishment in the environment. The genetic consequences of augmentative biological control are seldom studied, owing to unpredictability in population-level dynamics with other species (interspecific competition) and genetic incompatibilities between populations of the same species (intraspecific interactions). Study of genetic population structure and population demography allows us to make predictions about (a) compatibility, (b) survival of the species, and (c) invasivity (or the propensity of an invasive species to adapt to a new environment). Predatory coccinellids are some of the most abundant species in agroecosystems (Honek et al., 2012), yet the basic population genetics of many of these beneficial species is poorly known (Sloggett et al., 2012). During the first half of the 20th century, genetic studies of variation in elytral patterns of coccinellids were conducted (e.g., Dobzhansky, 1933; Komai, 1956). More recently, a series of studies evaluated variation in allozymes in selected species of North American lady beetles and compared levels of genetic variation with introduced species (Krafsur et al., 2005). In Hippodamia convergens, heterozygosity averaged over 27 loci in adults from Iowa was 21%, a level similar to several other North American species (Krafsur et al., 2005). Based on variation in 18 microsatellite markers, Lombaert et al. (2010) proposed a series of geographical movements to explain the recent rapid increase in the distribution of H. axyridis. Using 37 polymorphic microsatellite markers to genotype offspring, Haddrill et al. (2008) documented high rates of multiple mating by female Adalia bipunctata collected at two field sites. In a recent study, based on genetic variation in mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome oxidase I), Kajita et al. (2012) concluded that the current North American distribution of C. septempunctata is a result of multiple human releases of this species and local expansion from release sites. Augmentative releases of the predatory lady beetle, H. convergens (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), represent a unique example of augmentative biological control that allows examination of several potential non-target effects of these releases (Michaud et al., 2012). Adult H. convergens are collected from overwintering sites in the western USA, stored at low temperatures, and sold for release throughout the USA (commercial sources listed in White and Johnson (2010). These releases may be appropriate for pest suppression (particularly aphids and whiteflies) in the western USA (e.g., Dreistadt and Flint, 1996; Flint and Dreistadt, 2005; Hagler and Naranjo, 2004; Hagler, 2009), but releases may create several non-target issues for Eastern populations of H. convergens. For example, previous studies have documented the presence of pathogens and parasitoids in field-collected adult H. convergens in the western USA that are then released in the eastern USA (e.g., Lipa and Steinhaus, 1959; O’Neil et al., 1998; Bjornson, 2008). H. convergens is widely distributed in North America and various aspects of seasonal biology, ecology and predator–prey interactions of selected geographic populations have been studied (e.g., Hagen, 1962; Michaud and Qureshi, 2006; Phoofolo et al., 2008; Hagler, 2009). In this study, we examined the population structure of H. convergens using microsatellite markers. Based on our findings, we address questions about the potential effects of augmentative releases of H. convergens from the western USA on the genetics of Eastern (east of the Rocky Mountains) populations of this species. Of particular interest in this context are three important questions: (1) What is the population structure of H. convergens across the Americas, and is there a signal of admixture from the California populations that have been released annually into Eastern populations? (2) What is the ancient population demography of sampled beetle populations – do they fit a model of panmixia (which would be expected in the absence of population structure) or more of a source-sink model (which would be expected in the presence of structure with signs of admixture)? (3) Are there genetic signatures of recent population size decline in any sampled populations of H. convergens? 2. Materials and methods 2.1. Field work – H. convergens populations H. convergens were obtained with various methods. Adults were purchased from suppliers in California and Arizona (Table 1). While exact sampling information was not available for these purchased samples, we assume that they were sampled from the same geographical location for all further analyses. Adults from Arkansas were collected from roadside vegetation in 1994 and stored in alcohol at 20 °C. Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma collections were made using sweep nets in alfalfa fields and roadside vegetation. The California-A population was from an overwintering site in the Angeles National Forest. Adults from Georgia were collected from two cotton fields in different counties. The beetles from Chile in South America were collected from agricultural fields near Santiago. 2.2. Genotyping A total of 117 individuals from 11 sampling locales were genotyped at 7 microsatellite loci (Hcv7, Hcv17, Hcv15, HcvT19, Hcv4, Hcv13, Hcv30 - see Table 2) (A’Hara et al., 2012) on an Applied Biosystems 3730 DNA Analyzer at Iowa State University using the ROX (FAM/HEX dye sets. Prior to genotyping, genomic DNA was extracted from each beetle with Qiagen DNeasy Blood and Tissue Kits, following the extraction protocol for insect tissues. PCR amplification of microsatellite loci was performed in 12.5 ll reactions, comprising 7.65 ll of dH2O, 1.25 ll of 10x PCR buffer (containing 25 lM of MgCl2), 0.12 ll of dNTPs, 0.2 ll of forward primer (labeled with FAM/HEX), 0.2 ll of reverse primer, 0.08 ll of Taq DNA polymerase, 0.5 ll of Q-solution, and 2.5 ll of extracted DNA. Both negative and positive controls were performed in each set of PCRs, and genotyped. 1.5 ll of PCR product was used in each genotyping reaction. Genotypes were then analyzed using GeneMapper v.1.0 (Applied Biosystems). Indeterminate allele sizes or failed PCRs and genotyping reactions were recorded as missing alleles – 46 out of 819 genotypes were missing (6%). All individuals used in this study contained information for at least 3 out of 7 genotyped loci. 3 A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 Table 1 Sampling locales, GPS coordinates, collection information for H. convergens individuals. Population Location Longitude-Latitude Collector(s) Collection Dates Number of Individuals Arkansas Arizona California CaliforniaA Georgia Roadside vegetation Purchased Arbico Purchased Rincon-Vitova Mt Baldy Village, CA Coffee Cty and Tift Cty cotton fields 33.72°N, 94.40°W Tim Kring Chris Wheeler John Ruberson 12 16 18 9 18 Iowa Kansas-Lawrence Kansas-Manhattan Alfalfa fields in central Iowa Roadside Vegetation Kansas State University alfalfa fields University of Kentucky North Farm Norman-Oklahoma 34.24°N 117.66°W 31.24°N 83.00°W 31. 30°N 83.33°W 41.73°N 93.60°W 38.97°N 95.24°W 39.19°N 96.59°W 1993-June 2011-May 2011-May 2011-Oct 2011-Aug Laura Jesse & JJO JJO Jim Nechols & JJO 2011-May 2011-May 2011-May 11 9 8 Jake Hillard Yukie Kajita & Eric O’Neal Audrey Grez 2011-May 2011-Jun 5 8 2011-Nov 3 Kentucky Oklahoma South AmericaChile Santiago-Chile 38.03°N 84.49°W 35.22°N 97.44°W -33.45°N 70.67°S Table 2 Primer sequences, names, modifications and size ranges as estimated from both our study, and that of A’Hara et al. (2012). Sequence Primer Repeat 50 Mod Allele size ACCACTTATGTCTTGCAAACCC AGTAGGTATTGGGGCACCTG AGTTAGAAAAGAAAGACCTTTTGCC ATGGGTGAGGTTCCTCGTG AGGAGATGTCAAAAGGATAAATTGG CCAAATGTTTGATAGGATTTCTTCG CACTGATAAGCCAATAACTAAACTTGA TTCCTGGTGTCGTAATCGTG AATAGGTCCAGTTCGCCAGA CAGCCTGTGCTACCTCTCC TCTTTCTTGTTAGCTCTTCTTCGG TGTTTATTCTGCTGTTGTGTCTG GACGATTGTGCGAGCCAG TGGAGTTGAAATAGATGTATGAAAAT Hcv4F Hcv7F Hcv13F Hcv15F Hcv17F HcvT19F Hcv30F Hcv4R Hcv7R Hcv13R Hcv15R Hcv17R HcvT19R Hcv30R Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Trinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Dinucleotide Trinucleotide Dinucleotide FAM FAM FAM FAM FAM FAM FAM 134–161 170–221 154–178 148–227 123–136 210–232 152–227 Table 3 P values from X2 tests of Hardy–Weinberg Equilibrium across all loci and populations. P values correspond to the probability that an observed chi-squared statistic is as high as or higher than one observed under the null hypothesis of H0 of HWE. Values shown in red indicate violation of HWE. Arkansas Arizona California CaliforniaA Georgia Iowa KansasL KansasM Kentucky Oklahoma SouthAmerica Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv15 HcvT19 Hcv4 Hcv13 Hcv30 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.02 0.36 0.09 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.21 0.11 0.08 NA 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.01 0.15 0.10 1.00 0.01 1.00 0.00 0.51 0.19 NA 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.35 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 2.3. Genetic diversity analysis All populations and loci were tested for deviations from Hardy– Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) prior to further analyses, using X2 tests with the ADEGENET R package (Jombart and Ahmed, 2011). Analyses of polymorphism levels, and expected and observed heterozygosities, were performed in GDA v.1.1 (Weir et al., 1996; Lewis et al., 2001). X2 tests of genotypic disequilibrium were employed to test for independence of loci using Genepop v.4.3.2 (Raymond and Rousset, 1995; Rousset, 2008). 1000 bootstrap replicates were used to construct 95% confidence intervals of F statistics (f or FIS or genetic differentiation among individuals within populations, F = FIT or genetic differentiation in individuals in the total population, and h = FST or genetic differentiation within populations, relative to the total population), using GDA v.1.1 (Weir et al., 1996; Lewis et al., 2001). 2.4. Detection of population structure To detect population structure and the presence of introgression between the California populations (hereafter denoted as Western populations) and the Eastern (all other populations except California) populations, we conducted two sets of analyses. The first approach was to use methods to infer population structure under both the mixture and the admixture models (Pritchard et al., 2000). The mixture model assumes that each individual’s multilocus genotype is derived entirely from one ancestral subpopulation, while the admixture model assumes that each allele at a locus can be derived from a different ancestral subpopulation. We assumed a subpopulation structure comprising K = 1 to 12 ancestral subpopulations and ran 100 different initializations (replicates) of MULTICLUST v.1.0 (Sethuraman et al., 2013) under both the mixture and admixture models. MULTICLUST implements an Expectation–Maximization algorithm for maximum likelihoodbased estimation of subpopulation allele frequencies and mixture/admixture proportions (under a model with specified number of ancestral subpopulations, here denoted by K). We used information criteria (AIC) from MULTICLUST to infer the ‘true’ number of ancestral subpopulations. We also performed the same analyses using STRUCTURE v.2.3.4 (Pritchard et al., 2000; Falush et al., 2007), with 100,000 iterations of burn-in for the MCMC, and 100,000 iterations of MCMC after 4 A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 burn-in. Five replicate runs of STRUCTURE were performed by varying the number of subpopulations (K) between 1 and 11. The ‘true’ number of ancestral subpopulations was then inferred using the method of Evanno et al. (2005) with STRUCTURE HARVESTER (Earl and et al., 2012). 2.5. Estimation of migration The second approach was to infer migration rates (M) and effective population sizes (Ne) under an island model using MIGRATE v.3.6.4 (Beerli and Felsenstein, 2001; Beerli, 2008). Under this model, sampled populations of a constant Ne continue to exchange genes at a constant migration rate (M) individuals per generation, backwards in time, until all genes have coalesced to a common ancestor. The aim of this analysis was to infer migration (if any) between sampled populations of H. convergens, and determine Ne at each sampled locale. Our goal for the MIGRATE analyses was twofold: (a) to determine rates of augmentation as a measure of migration out of the ‘‘source’’ (here, California populations), and (b) to determine the relative distribution of ancestral population sizes, and detect discrepancies between the Western and Eastern populations (if any). To do this, we ran 5 replicates of MIGRATE, reflecting a source-sink model of population demography, assuming that there is no migration between all the sampled populations, except for augmentation (emigration) out of the California source populations (California and California-A). We only assumed bidirectional migration between the two source populations in the model. MIGRATE is a Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based method that estimates the posterior density distribution of demographic parameters (here, Ne and M) by sampling genealogies. We assumed a Brownian model of microsatellite evolution considering the high levels of polymorphism deduced (see Table 4). To ensure good mixing of the MCMC, we utilized 1 106 burn-in iterations, followed by 5 105 iterations of MCMC. 4 chains were heated to improve mixing of the MCMC (Metropolis Coupling), with temperatures of chains ranging from 1 to 100,000 as recommended by Beerli (2008). Runs of MIGRATE were distributed among 8 CPUs (1 CPU monitors the progress of the run, 7 CPUs, one for each locus). We monitored acceptance rates of genealogies (and other parameter updates), effective sample sizes (ESS), and autocorrelations between parameters throughout the run. We performed 5 replicate runs in order to ensure parameter estimates were unchanging across runs. All computational analyses were performed on the Temple University HPC (Owlsnest). We also ran 2 replicates of the full model (island model, with bidirectional migration between all sampled populations) for comparison with the source-sink model. All other computational parameters were held the same across replicate runs. Priors on migration rates and population sizes were adjusted to be uniform between 0 and 2000 for migration, and 0 and 100 for population Table 4 Total allelic information (i.e. number of individuals with complete diploid genotypes at a locus) (n), polymorphism per locus (P), average number of alleles per locus (A) and polymorphic locus (Ap), expected proportion of heterozygotes (He), observed proportion of heterozygotes (Ho), and inbreeding coefficient (f). All values are reported across 11 tested populations. Locus n P A Ap He Ho f Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv15 HcvT19 Hcv4 Hcv13 Hcv30 All 111 105 103 96 105 111 111 106 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 30 11 25 20 15 16 27 20.57 30 11 25 20 15 16 27 20.57 0.926 0.760 0.924 0.802 0.520 0.874 0.872 0.811 0.550 0.514 0.398 0.417 0.305 0.324 0.532 0.434 0.408 0.325 0.570 0.482 0.415 0.629 0.392 0.466 size after multiple runs. Metropolis Coupling was invoked in the MCMC runs by using a total of 100 short chains and 20 long chains to explore the posterior density surface more efficiently. Since the source-sink model is nested within the full model, we determined the better model by comparing the marginal posterior density of parameters given the data (proportional to the likelihood) from both models. MIGRATE estimates Ne and M under the island model, assuming that M is constant through evolutionary time. To test for the presence or absence of recent migration (only migration rates estimated until the first coalescent event backwards in time) between sampled populations (particularly in the Eastern locales), we used the program BayesAss v.1.3 (Wilson and Rannala, 2003) to perform MCMC-based inference of recent migration. BayesAss was run using a full model as above, with 3,000,000 iterations of MCMC with 999,999 iterations discarded as burn-in. We performed three separate runs of BayesAss with the same parameters to ensure unchanging posterior densities and parameter estimates across runs. Convergence of MCMC in both MIGRATE and BayesAss runs was assessed by using the program Tracer (Rambaut et al., 2003), which plots the log-probability of data given parameters across an MCMC run. 2.6. Population size change To test for signatures of population size change (increase or decline) in sampled populations, we used the Bayesian MCMC program MSVAR v.1.3 (Beaumont, 1999; Girod et al., 2011). MSVAR uses standard assumptions of the coalescent to estimate the posterior density distribution of Ne backwards in coalescent time under a model of panmixia (assuming that all chromosomes, here loci were sampled from the same panmictic population, as our full model above). Using an exponential growth or decline model for population size, we ran 2 108 iterations of MCMC to ensure convergence before inference. We used a conservative estimate of generation time of 1 year per generation (Hagen, 1962), standard microsatellite mutation rate of 5 104 mutations per generation (as used by Lombaert et al. (2011) in another coccinellid, H. axyridis), 50 years since the start of a population decline or expansion (used the tinv prior used by Lombaert et al. (2011), to coincide with the time of invasion of H. axyridis), and prior ancestral and current population sizes of 10,000. Convergence of MCMC was adjudged as above by plotting the log likelihood across the run, and ensuring no discernible pattern throughout the run. Three separate runs of MSVAR were performed, using the (1) Western populations, (2) Eastern populations, and (3) all populations. 3. Results 3.1. Genetic diversity An average of 10 individuals were tested per population (ranging from 3–16; Table 5). All populations contained polymorphic loci, with an average observed heterozygosity of 0.44 (0.308 in Arkansas – 0.599 in CaliforniaA). All loci were polymorphic, with an average of 20.57 alleles per locus. The average observed heterozygosity across all loci was 0.434 (0.305 – 0.550; Table 4). Most loci were at HWE in all populations at a significance level of p = 0.05. The Hcv17 locus showed the most deviation from HWE in several populations (Arkansas, Arizona, California, CaliforniaA, KansasM, Kentucky, and Oklahoma). Similarly, Hcv4 showed considerable deviation from HWE in the Arizona, California, CaliforniaA, KansasM, Kentucky, Georgia, and South American populations. CaliforniaA population seemed to be deviating from HWE at 4 out of 7 loci tested (see Table 3). Tests showed that none 5 A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 Table 5 Average number of sampled individuals per population (n), polymorphism per locus (P), average number of alleles per locus (A) and polymorphic locus (Ap), expected proportion of heterozygotes (He), observed proportion of heterozygotes (Ho), and inbreeding coefficient (f). All values are reported across 7 tested loci. ID Population n P A Ap He Ho f 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Arkansas Arizona California CaliforniaA Georgia Iowa KansasL KansasM Kentucky Oklahoma SouthAmerica Mean 11.143 13.857 16.000 7.429 16.286 10.429 8.429 7.714 4.429 7.714 2.571 9.636 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.857 1.000 0.987 6.000 8.286 9.143 5.286 10.000 6.857 6.714 6.571 4.286 4.714 3.000 6.442 6.000 8.286 9.143 5.286 10.000 6.857 6.714 6.571 4.286 5.333 3.000 6.498 0.727 0.793 0.798 0.721 0.802 0.720 0.807 0.815 0.755 0.656 0.786 0.762 0.308 0.509 0.536 0.600 0.449 0.332 0.349 0.367 0.317 0.390 0.690 0.441 0.587 0.367 0.336 0.178 0.448 0.552 0.585 0.567 0.623 0.422 0.176 0.450 of the loci were linked (see Table 7), and that indeed the loci used in the following analyses were independent. When compared across all 7 tested loci by population, the genetic differentiation in individuals within populations (FIS) was estimated to be 0.45 (95% c.i. of 0.366–0.530), which indicates high levels of within-population genetic diversity. Bootstrap confidence intervals (95%) constructed around estimates of population differentiation (using a priori population structure as defined by the locations of sampling) show high levels of population differentiation within individuals relative to the total population (FIT = 0.468140; 95% c.i. of 0.394–0.545), and low levels of between-population differentiation (FST = 0.039108; 95% c.i. of 0.029–0.046) – see Table 6. 3.2. Population structure MULTICLUST determined the ‘true’ number of subpopulations in the data under both the admixture and mixture models to be K = 2 (Fig. 1). Analysis of admixture and mixture plots indicates several interesting patterns. Largely, the sampled localities of Arkansas, Arizona, California, KansasM, Kentucky, Georgia, and Oklahoma seem to cluster together as one distinct subpopulation. The Iowa, CaliforniaA, KansasL and South America (Chile) localities formed a separate cluster, but also indicated admixture with the first group (see Fig. 2). Replicate runs of STRUCTURE, and determining the most likely number of subpopulations using the method of Evanno et al. (2005), were inconclusive under the admixture model owing to low standard deviations in likelihood between replicate runs. But the mixture model suggested the ‘true’ number of subpopulations to be K = 3 (Fig. 1). This addition of a subpopulation (compared to K = 2 by MULTICLUST) provides further distinction in patterns of mixed ancestry between sampled populations (see Fig. 2). Particularly, individuals in Iowa, Georgia, KansasL, and Kentucky show signs of mixed ancestry with individuals in Arkansas, Arizona, and California. The South American population also seems to be admixed with the California populations. 3.3. Estimation of migration Comparison of the marginal posterior densities (proportional to the data likelihood) under the full (panmixia) and the source-sink Table 6 F statistics, and bootstrap confidence intervals constructed using 1000 replicates using GDA. For estimation of FST, we assumed that there were a total of 11 subpopulations, a priori assumed to be the locations of sampling. Value/bound FIS FIT FST Mean Upper Lower 0.446 0.530 0.367 0.468 0.546 0.395 0.039 0.047 0.029 Table 7 X2 tests of genotypic linkage disequilibrium across all pairs of loci, under the null hypothesis H0 that genotypes at one locus are independent of genotypes at another locus. Locus 1 Locus 2 X2 df P-Value Hcv7 Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv15 Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv15 HcvT19 Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv15 HcvT19 Hcv4 Hcv7 Hcv17 Hcv15 HcvT19 Hcv4 Hcv13 Hcv17 Hcv15 Hcv15 HcvT19 HcvT19 HcvT19 Hcv4 Hcv4 Hcv4 Hcv4 Hcv13 Hcv13 Hcv13 Hcv13 Hcv13 Hcv30 Hcv30 Hcv30 Hcv30 Hcv30 Hcv30 10.96 0 12.96 9.27 8.24 6.00 2.76 8.93 12.69 3.99 18.45 14.01 8.84 6.41 14.23 14.53 1.038 9.48 8.04 12.20 3.12 12 8 14 10 16 14 14 18 16 16 14 20 16 18 18 10 16 12 14 10 14 0.53 1 0.53 0.51 0.94 0.97 1 0.96 0.70 1 0.19 0.83 0.92 0.99 0.71 0.15 1 0.66 0.89 0.27 1 models (see Methods) showed that the latter had a greater likelihood (Bezier Ln Probability = 152752.12 under source-sink versus Bezier Ln Probability = 289624.59 under the full model). Using the source-sink model of population demography, MIGRATE revealed considerable differences in Ne between the ‘‘source’’, or the Californian populations, versus the ‘‘sink’’, or all other populations (see Table 9). Population size estimates at the California and CaliforniaA populations were several fold larger than the other populations (Ne > 8860 individuals). All other populations of H. convergens in the eastern USA had smaller Ne (60–3400 individuals). The Oklahoma population was the smallest, with an Ne of 60 individuals (0–6260; 95% c.i.). M (migration rate) estimates under the source-sink model revealed interesting patterns of ancient and contemporary gene flow between sampled populations. Of note are the large emigration rates from the California localities into the Chile, KansasL, Kentucky, and Arkansas localities. All other M estimates were comparatively lower (especially in comparison with the other California population), indicating that the CaliforniaA locality is a central source for all other sampled sites. Bidirectional migration was negligible between the two California localities (see Table 8). Analysis of contemporary M using BayesAss, on the other hand revealed no substantial immigration or emigration between any of the sampled populations (see Table 10). Mean M estimates did however show a relatively higher immigration from all Eastern 6 A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 Fig. 1. (L) AIC estimates from runs of MULTICLUST from K = 1–10. Least AIC determines the ‘true’ subpopulation structure under both admixture and mixture models. (R) DK estimates using the method of Evanno et al. (2005) to pick the most likely number of subpopulations in 5 replicate runs of STRUCTURE v.2.3.4 under the mixture model. Admixture model runs were not amenable to be used under the same method owing to low standard deviations between replicate runs. Fig. 2. Admixture/mixture proportion plots from all populations. Each distinct subpopulation is represented by a color. Under the mixture model, each individual’s multilocus genotype is entirely derived from a subpopulation. Under the admixture model, an allele can be derived from one of K subpopulations. K = 2 was determined by replicate runs of MULTICLUST v.1.0 under both the mixture (Left) and admixture (Center) models, while replicate runs of STRUCTURE v.2.3.4 estimated K = 3 under the mixture model (Right). populations (except KansasM) into the Georgia population, but the 95% confidence interval still included a net M of 0.0, indicative of no substantial migration. Mean estimates of parameters (and confidence intervals) were consistent through the three replicate runs. MCMC trace plots of the logarithmic probability of the data given estimated parameters also showed oscillation around a mean value, with no definitive pattern, indicative of convergence of MCMC. 3.4. Population size change MSVAR analyses using the Western and Eastern populations detected Ne decline in both groups of populations (29-fold in Western, mean Current Ne = 48966.61 (variance = 1.50), mean Ancestral Ne = 1402813.705 (variance = 1.31), 12-fold in Eastern, mean Current Ne = 13901.77 (variance = 1.59), mean Ancestral Ne = 173087.62 (variance = 1.30)). Across all populations, MSVAR determined that the current overall population size under the panmictic model has declined considerably (16-fold, mean Current Ne = 19054.61 (variance = 1.29), mean Ancestral Ne = 316227.8 (variance = 1.27)) over approximately the last 4.41 (variance = 0.157) years, across all loci (Tables 11 and 12). Mutation rate across all loci was determined to be 3 104 sites per generation, on similar scales as the assumed microsatellite mutation rate per generation, across loci. 4. Discussion Augmentative release of biological control organisms (often from one, or more source populations) presents a unique opportu- 7 South America Oklahoma Kentucky KansasM KansasL Iowa Georgia CaliforniaA California SouthAmerica 0.013(0.0000– 0.0383) 0.011(0.0000– 0.0325) 0.0118(0.0000– 0.0346) 0.015(0.0000– 0.0443) 0.0126(0.0000– 0.0363) 0.0144(0.0000– 0.0415) 0.016(0.0000– 0.0455) 0.0163(0.0000– 0.0477) 0.1087(0.0000– 0.0555) 0.0151(0.0000– 0.0437) 0.705(0.6667– 0.7682) 0.0128(0.0000– 0.0365) 0.0111(0.0000– 0.0333) 0.0114(0.0000– 0.0339) 0.015(0.0000– 0.0437) 0.0124(0.0000– 0.0366) 0.0142(0.0000– 0.0409) 0.016(0.0000– 0.0455) 0.0159(0.0000– 0.0449) 0.0187(0.0000– 0.0544) 0.6861(0.6667– 0.7224) 0.0242(0.0000– 0.0725) Oklahoma Kentucky 0.0128(0.0000– 0.0369) 0.011(0.0000– 0.0324) 0.0117(0.0000– 0.0347) 0.0151(0.0000– 0.044) 0.0123(0.0000– 0.0362) 0.0141(0.0000– 0.0414) 0.0163(0.0000– 0.0471) 0.0163(0.0000– 0.0459) 0.6942(0.6667– 0.7435) 0.0146(0.0000– 0.0424) 0.0233(0.0000– 0.0706) 0.0139(0.0000– 0.0405) 0.0108(0.0000– 0.0315) 0.0117(0.0000– 0.035) 0.0149(0.0000– 0.044) 0.0127(0.0000– 0.0371) 0.0142(0.0000– 0.0417) 0.0166(0.0000– 0.0389) 0.6919(0.6667– 0.7381) 0.0197(0.0000– 0.0581) 0.0151(0.0000– 0.0452) 0.0234(0.0000– 0.0706) KansasM KansasL Iowa 0.013(0.0000– 0.038) 0.011(0.0000– 0.0319) 0.0116(0.0000– 0.0327) 0.0152(0.0000– 0.0447) 0.0121(0.0000– 0.0352) 0.0142(0.0000– 0.0414) 0.693(0.6667– 0.7367) 0.0162(0.0000– 0.0471) 0.0189(0.0000– 0.0542) 0.0146(0.0000– 0.0437) 0.024(0.0000– 0.0713) Arkansas nity for studying the dynamics of genetic admixture. H. convergens, has been used widely in augmentation biological control across the Americas, particularly as predators of aphids and whiteflies. However, the population genetic effects of augmentative releases of H. convergens from source populations in California on other native populations of the beetle have yet to be characterized. Our analysis of structure among sampled locations strongly indicates the presence of ancestral admixture between at least 2 genetically divergent subpopulations. Consistent with that conclusion of ancestral admixture, no recent migration is discernible between sampled populations, as indicated by the BayesAss analyses. Estimation of ancestral migration rates between sampled populations using MIGRATE indicates greater support (Bezier ln probability of 10 scales larger) for a source-sink model of population demography, at least historically, rather than panmixia. Correspondingly, our analyses show that California multilocus genotypes are indeed admixed into Eastern populations, supporting the hypothesis of non-target effects of augmentation programs that utilize commercially distributed H. convergens from California. Estimated population sizes were considerably larger in the California (source) H. convergens populations, compared to all Eastern 0.0284(0.0000– 0.0898) 0.0471(0.0000– 0.1552) 0.017(0.0000– 0.0522) 0.0149(0.0000– 0.0446) 0.0232(0.0000– 0.0709) 0.7326(0.6667– 0.8591) 0.0572(0.0000– 0.1804) 0.0469(0.0000– 0.157) 0.0593(0.0000– 0.1843) 0.0704(0.0000– 0.2201) 0.0275(0.0000– 0.0822) 2200(0–5460) 3260(0–6540) 10740(7060–14260) 8860(5200–12540) 3000(0–6140) 740(0–4660) 2200(0–5740) 2740(0–6000) 2860(0–6260) 60(0–6260) 3400(0–6660) Georgia Ne (h/4u), 95% c.i. 1.10(0.00–2.73) 1.63(0.00–3.27) 5.37(3.53–7.13) 4.43(2.60–6.27) 1.50(0.00–3.07) 0.37(0.00–2.33) 1.10(0.00–2.87) 1.37(0.00–3.00) 1.43(0.00–3.13) 0.03(0.00–3.13) 1.70(0.00–3.33) 0.13(0.0000– 0.2407) 0.1155(0.0000– 0.2477) 0.09(0.0000– 0.2502) 0.0739(0.0000– 0.2263) 0.7957(0.6667– 0.9021) 0.1295(0.0000– 0.2399) 0.1087(0.0000– 0.2115) 0.1008(0.0000– 0.2134) 0.0899(0.0000– 0.1952) 0.1233(0.0000– 0.232) 0.0588(0.0000– 0.1581) h (mode, 95% c.i.) Arizona Arkansas California CaliforniaA Georgia Iowa Kansas-L Kansas-M Kentucky Oklahoma South America CaliforniaA Population 0.0618(0.0000– 0.1977) 0.0459(0.0000– 0.154) 0.075(0.0000– 0.2363) 0.7339(0.6667– 0.869) 0.0695(0.0000– 0.2194) 0.0221(0.0000– 0.0668) 0.026(0.0000– 0.0794) 0.036(0.0000– 0.1244) 0.0208(0.0000– 0.0607) 0.0153(0.0000– 0.044) 0.0384(0.0000– 0.1239) Table 9 Population size estimates from fitting a source-sink model to the data using MIGRATE 3.6.4. Parameters estimated are mutation scaled population sizes h = 4Neu. Also shown are 95% confidence intervals around the mode (maximum likelihood in the posterior density distribution of estimated parameter given the data). Mean Ne estimate is across 5 replicate runs of MIGRATE. California 40.337 800.8679 3211.1 75.18 73.8481 1252.995 159 93.4879 205.4721 613.8 1426.337 167.14 537.9579 559.6019 2813.282 1.1799 27.6201 692.461 3172.2 0.0167(0.0000– 0.0483) 0.044(0.0000– 0.1539) 0.736(0.6667– 0.8767) 0.0725(0.0000– 0.2243) 0.0242(0.0000– 0.0758) 0.0155(0.0000– 0.0455) 0.0171(0.0000– 0.0515) 0.0263(0.0000– 0.0903) 0.02(0.0000– 0.0569) 0.016(0.0000– 0.0462) 0.0247(0.0000– 0.0745) Number 1.1 1.63 1.63 5.37 4.43 1.5 1.5 0.37 0.37 1.1 1.1 1.37 1.37 1.43 1.43 0.03 0.03 1.7 1.7 Arkansas h (0.00–70.67) (112.00–838.67) (1272.00–2000.00) (0.00–46.67) (0.00–56.00) (586.67–1052.00) (32.00–234.67) (78.67–358.67) (425.33–873.33) (286.67–1264.00) (689.33–1794.67) (0.00–325.33) (124.00–1132.00) (212.00–1712.00) (1012.00–2000.00) (0.00–110.67) (697.33–1945.33) (118.67–770.66) (625.33–2000.00) 0.014(0.0000– 0.0413) 0.6821(0.6667– 0.7129) 0.0122(0.0000– 0.0367) 0.015(0.0000– 0.0443) 0.0129(0.0000– 0.0371) 0.0153(0.0000– 0.0445) 0.0174(0.0000– 0.05) 0.0177(0.0000– 0.0529) 0.0203(0.0000– 0.059) 0.0147(0.0000– 0.0427) 0.0248(0.0000– 0.0759) 95% c.i. 36.67 491.33 1970.00 14.00 16.67 835.33 106.00 252.67 555.33 558.00 1296.67 122.00 392.67 391.33 1967.33 39.33 920.67 407.33 1866.00 0.6837(0.6667– 0.7149) 0.0104(0.0000– 0.0302) 0.0116(0.0000– 0.0337) 0.0146(0.0000– 0.0427) 0.0124(0.0000– 0.0363) 0.014(0.0000– 0.0405) 0.0157(0.0000– 0.0478) 0.0156(0.0000– 0.0445) 0.0185(0.0000– 0.055) 0.0149(0.0000– 0.0427) 0.0259(0.0000– 0.0765) Mode M4->1 M3->2 M4->2 M4->3 M3->4 M3->5 M4->5 M3->6 M4->6 M3->7 M4->7 M3->8 M4->8 M3->9 M4->9 M3->10 M4->10 M3->11 M4->11 Arizona Parameter Arizona Table 8 Migration rate estimates from fitting a source-sink model to the data using MIGRATE 3.6.4. Parameters estimated are bidirectional migration rates (scaled by a standard microsatellite mutation rate of 5 104 mutations per site per generation). Number of immigrants is calculated as hM, where h are the mutation scaled population sizes. Also shown are 95% confidence intervals. The first column indicates which migration parameter as Mfrom->to. Population ID’s are the same as in Table 5. The second column indicates mode of the posterior density distribution of migration rates M. Table 10 Mean pairwise contemporary migration rate (in fraction of population that are immigrants/emigrants) as estimated by BayesAss v.3.0.3. 95% confidence intervals are shown in parentheses. Means and confidence intervals were computed over three replicate runs of BayesAss with different random number seeds. A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 8 A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 Table 11 Estimates of population sizes (ancestral and current) under a panmictic model across 7 polymorphic microsatellite loci using MSVAR v.1.3. Locus Mutations TMRCA log10 (N0) log10 (N1) log10 (l) log likelihood 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1504 1443 1517 1509 1431 1345 1525 3.05E+01 6.74E+01 2.92E+01 6.66E+01 6.53E+01 3.22E+01 4.73E+01 4.40 4.17 4.43 4.18 4.20 4.39 4.24 5.54 5.42 5.37 5.52 5.53 5.48 5.51 3.50 3.46 3.47 3.54 3.57 3.52 3.44 1346.27 651.50 1536.17 451.31 324.93 1029.43 995.29 Table 12 Estimates of population sizes, and time since population decline across 7 polymorphic microsatellite loci using MSVAR v.1.3. Also shown are variances across loci in parentheses. The full model (analysis using all populations) is shown by the row labeled ‘‘All’’. Population log10 Ncurrent log10 Nancestral log10 T log likelihood Time (years) Eastern Western All 4.14(0.20) 4.69(0.18) 4.28(0.11) 5.24(0.11) 6.15(0.12) 5.50(0.11) 3.42(0.21) 3.989(0.27) 3.51(0.04) 3464.64 7391.32 6334.91 3.91(0.22) 5.45(0.64) 4.41(0.16) populations. The South American beetles (as well as some of the larger Eastern populations) seem to be most closely related to the CaliforniaA population, and have a size comparable to all the other sampled populations. Also, if the entire sampled population were considered to be panmictic, a very recent and drastic population decline has occurred in all sampled populations (across loci). While the MSVAR analyses strongly indicate a population decline (Ncurrent/Nancestral = 0.06), the method has lower precision in estimating demographic parameters under very recent population size changes (Girod et al., 2011). MSVAR also assumes that alleles are sampled from a panmictic population (K = 1), which is not entirely true in our sampled locations, as indicated by the MULTICLUST and STRUCTURE analyses (which show the presence of at least K = 2 ancestral subpopulations). We also utilized a generation time of 1 generation per year (based on the univoltine source populations from California – Hagen (1962) in estimating population size decline. We acknowledge that this estimate is conservative. Several native populations, particularly in our Eastern sampling locales are multivoltine (Hagen, 1962). Correspondingly, our estimate of time since population size decline may be biased. We hence treat the detection of population decline with MSVAR as circumstantial, and any inferences from it only augmenting what has already been observed in ecological studies of some eastern H. convergens populations (Smith and Gardiner, 2013). We acknowledge that the sample sizes in this study are relatively small, compared to the expected total population size, but several points support their validity in our study. First, levels of polymorphism were high – all loci were polymorphic (P = 1, across all sampled individuals), with an average of >20 alleles/locus. For such highly polymorphic loci, lower sample sizes should not affect estimates of heterozygosity, allele frequencies, and subsequent statistics (Hale et al., 2012). Moreover, estimated levels of inbreeding (FIS = 0.446) and population structure (K P 2 subpopulations) are high. Thus, each sampled location should have lower heterozygosity on average if a Wahlund Effect holds true (sense Table 3, despite HWE). As long as polymorphic loci are homozygous, the sample should be representative of a population regardless of the number of sampled individuals. Furthermore, our analyses of structure, polymorphism, heterozygosity, and disequlibrium assume no populations labels, being computed across individuals in the total sample, and thus should be unaffected by local sample sizes. Finally, the coalescent analyses used (e.g., MSVAR) do not require many individuals to permit demographic inferences (Pluzhnikov and Donnelly, 1996). Pervasive inbreeding was implicated by microsatellite analysis, indicating that most genetic variation is explained by variation among individuals within sampled locations. Also, the low heterozygosity in any individual relative to the total population (either as a result of non-random mating, inbreeding, or drift), and relatively lower levels of differentiation combined with declining population sizes (16-fold), indicates large effects of genetic drift, perhaps due to founder effects. This outcome is of particular concern for the long-term evolutionary adaptability of the species, considering resource competition and intra-guild predation by other invasive predatory Coccinellidae across North America. Reduced populations of H. convergens in selected regions of eastern North America correlate with increased densities of introduced Eurasian species, specifically C. septempunctata and H. axyridis (Smith and Gardiner, 2013). Our analyses provide evidence that Eastern populations of H. convergens have been affected by augmentative released from the west, although no detectible migration is ongoing between the sampled populations. In light of no apparent reproductive barriers between populations from Iowa and California (Gomez et al., 1998; Obrycki et al., 2001), we hypothesize that continual admixture has not affected the rate of evolution of reproductive barriers. However, questions remain as to the rates at which beetles from California mate with local beetles, whether eastern and western populations express genetic differences related to local environmental adaptations, and whether the crosses have deleterious consequences for Eastern populations. Reduced population sizes and inbreeding could lead to parallel effects in bacterial symbionts and pathogens, with further potential consequences for this species. Many species of lady beetles contain maternally-inherited bacterial symbionts that alter sex ratios by killing developing male eggs (Majerus, 2006). The presence of these bacteria can compromise the use of mitochondrial DNA for population genetic studies (Hurst and Jiggins, 2005). However, no male-killing bacteria have been reported from H. convergens (Majerus, 2006; Weeks et al., 2003). Still, (Majerus and Majerus, 2012) predicted their occurrence or invasion based on H. convergens’ oviposition behavior of laying eggs in clusters, the risk of first instar starvation, and sibling egg cannibalism by neonates. Augmentative releases of overwintering adult H. convergens collected from the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California have been conducted for over a century (see description of practices in Hagen (1962)). Although many releases initially targeted pest species in California and Arizona agricultural systems (Hagen, 1962; Dreistadt and Flint, 1996; Flint and Dreistadt, 2005; Hagler and A. Sethuraman et al. / Biological Control 84 (2015) 1–10 Naranjo, 2004; Hagler, 2009), over the past 50 years, H. convergens from California have been widely released east of the Rocky Mountains. These beetles can be infected with pathogenic misrosporidia and parasitized by the braconid wasp Dinocampus coccinellae, which may parasitize other species of Coccinellidae (Lipa and Steinhaus, 1959; O’Neil et al., 1998; Saito and Bjornson, 2006; Bjornson, 2008; Ceryngier et al., 2012). Nonetheless, evidence is lacking that quantifies any effects of these potential mortality factors on Eastern populations of H. convergens. Further characterization of intra-specific variation in selected traits of H. convergens is needed to assess the potential effects of releases of California beetles on local H. convergens populations. For example, studies of geographic variation in H. convergens populations from Arizona, Cuzco (Peru), New York, and Oregon examined the thermal requirements for development (Butler and Dickerson, 1972; Escalante, 1972; Obrycki and Tauber, 1982; Miller, 1992). Consistency in developmental thresholds across geographically separated populations in North America has been reported by Miller (1992). However, earlier studies noted differences in thermal responses between populations from Arizona and New York (Butler and Dickerson, 1972; Obrycki and Tauber, 1982). Analysis of the genetics of thermal regulation in tandem with the population structure and admixture of this species are thus warranted to understand the genetic consequences of localized adaptation in these predatory beetles. Several larger practical and conceptual questions are raised by this study. How does human-mediated movement of organisms (and subsequent genetic admixture into native conspecifics, as indicated by this study) for commercial purposes affect the longterm adaptability of species to local environments? What are the benefits and non-target genetic effects of augmented releases of H. convergens on local populations of cohabiting species? Particularly, can predator–prey demographics between competing species explain large scale population size declines as detected by this study? What other factors (genetic and ecological) affect the demographics of augmented species, having determined pervasive inbreeding and population size decline? Addressing these and other questions will require a closer look at species occupying similar habitats in which H. convergens are released. A combined analysis of population demography (using genetic information) and ecological information (including habitat and prey use, and parasitoids, records of augmentation) could shed more light on the large-scale impacts of augmentative biological control programs that involve geographic displacement of individuals. Author contributions JJO and FJ designed the study. Genotyping was performed by AS and JJO. AS analyzed the data, and AS, FJ, and JJO wrote the manuscript. Acknowledgments This research was supported by a USDA-NIFA sabbatical grant (2011-67014-30194) to JJO. We thank Andy Michel and Mary Gardiner, Department of Entomology, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center, Wooster, Ohio for sharing their microsatellite markers.We thank Morgan Becker, Audra Loy, Chelsea Sawyers, Leighfonda Allen, Daniela Flores, other members of the Janzen Lab at Iowa State University, and Lalitha Sethuraman for assistance with genotyping. We are very grateful to all the collectors of H. convergens listed in Table 1. We thank Dr. Ric Bessin, Department of Entomology, University of Kentucky, for the image of H. convergens. All analyses were performed on the Temple HPC 9 (Owlsnest) which was supported in part by the NSF major research instrumentation grant number CNS-09-58854. References A’Hara, S., Amouroux, P., Argo, E.E., Avand-Faghih, A., Barat, A., Barbieri, L., Bert, T.M., Blatrix, R., Blin, A., Bouktila, D., 2012. 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