Dave Osthus
dosthus@lanl.gov
EDUCATION
Iowa State University, Ames, IA
Ph.D., Statistics, Summer, 2015
Advisor: Petruţa Caragea
Thesis: Applications of and extensions to state-space models
Iowa State University, Ames, IA
M.S., Statistics, May 2011
Advisor: Alicia Carriquiry
G.P.A. 3.88/4.0
Luther College, Decorah, IA
B.A., Mathematics/Statistics and Religion, May 2008
G.P.A. 3.91/4.0 (summa cum laude)
Member Phi Beta Kappa, Pi Mu Epsilon
EMPLOYMENT Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
HISTORY
• Postdoctoral Researcher (Summer 2015 - present)
– Uncertainty quantification for reduced order models
– Probabilistic forecasting of infectious diseases
Iowa State University
• Center for Survey Statistics and Methodology, Ames, IA
– Research Assistant (2010 - 2014)
– Measurement error modeling of usual, daily energy expenditure in collaboration with the Department of Kinesiology at ISU
• Department of Human Services, Des Moines, IA
– Research Assistant (2009 - 2010)
– Provided statistical analysis and data visualization for the annual Medicaid
for Employed People with Disabilities survey
Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM
• Graduate Research Assistant (Summer 2013, Summer 2014, Spring 2015)
– Developed a novel, dynamic forecasting model for electron flux in the Van
Allen radiation belt in collaboration with the Space Science and Applications
group (Summer 2013)
– Developed a non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space model and worked on uncertainty quantification problems for disease outbreak forecasting in collaboration with the Mathematical and Computational Epidemiology group
(Summer 2014, Spring 2015)
Best Buy, Richfield, MN
• Demand Forecast Analyst (2008 - 2009)
– Designed, developed, and tested regression based promotional forecasting
software
– Provided statistical consultation for Best Buy Express
AWARDS
Iowa State University
• Second place in the 2013 ASA Data Expo; “A Tale of Four Cities” with Karsten
Maurer and Adam Loy
• Los Alamos Statistical Sciences Conference Grant for participation in the Conference on Data Analysis, 2014
• Jebe Fellowship: 2009 - 2013
• GlaxoSmithKline Industrial Scholarship: 2009
Luther College
• Robert S. Jacobsen Scholarship
• Dean’s List Fall 2004 - Spring 2008
PUBLICATIONS A. Loy, K. Maurer, D. Osthus. A Tale of Four Cities: Exploring the Soul of Biloxi,
Detroit, Milledgeville, and State College. Computational Statistics; accepted pending
revisions
D. Osthus, P. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. Morley, G. Reeves, B. Weaver. Towards better
empirical forecasting of radiation belt electrons and limitations on physical interpretation of predictive models. Space Weather.
Welk, G.J., Kim, Y., Stanfill, B., Osthus, D., Calabro, A.M., Nusser, S., Carriquiry,
A. Validity of 24 Hour Physical Activity Recall: Physical Activity Measurement Survey. Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise
J. Crowley, B. Curley, D. Osthus, (2010) What is JEOPARDY!?: A graphical exploration from 1984-2009 Chance 23 (4): 6-14.
PUBLICATIONS D. Osthus, P. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. Morley, G. Reeves, B. Weaver. Multiscale Dynamic Linear Models. under review
IN
PREPARATION
D. Osthus, K. Hickmann, P. Caragea, D. Higdon, S. Del Valle. Forecasting Seasonal Influenza with a State-space SIR Model. submit
W. A. Fuller and D. Osthus. Properties of measures of usual daily energy expenditure. submit
D. Osthus, N. Beyler, B. Stanfill, S. Nusser, W. Fuller, A. Carriquiry, G. Welk.
Estimating the distributions of usual daily energy expenditure as a function of individual characteristics. in preparation
PRESENTATIONS
Estimating the Distribution of Usual Daily Energy Expenditure, Iowa State University
Survey Working Group - Ames, IA, February, 2014
Electron Flux, Solar Wind Speed, Sunspots, and Dynamic Linear Models, Statistical
Sciences Seminar Series, Los Alamos National Laboratory - Los Alamos, NM, July,
2013
Methodological Overview and Assessment of the Physical Activity Measurement Survey
(PAMS) Project, Iowa State University Survey Working Group - Ames, IA, October,
2012
Estimating the Probability of Compliance with Physical Activity Guidelines from a
Bayesian Perspective, Revisited, Iowa State University Survey Working Group - Ames,
IA, March, 2012
A Bayesian Approach to Model Daily Physical Activity, Iowa State University Survey Working Group - Ames, IA, October, 2011
A Genetic Algorithm Approach to Optimize Planning of Food Fortification Programs,
Joint Statistical Meetings - Miami, FL, August, 2011
Modeling Physical Activity Data, Iowa State University Survey Working Group - Ames,
IA, March, 2011
A Genetic Algorithm Approach to Optimize Planning of Food Fortification, Iowa State
University Master’s Defense - Ames, IA, March, 2011
Making a Good Questionnaire, Iowa State University Survey Working Group - Ames,
IA, November, 2010
POSTER PRESENTATIONS
Electron Flux, Solar Wind Speed, Sunspots, and Dynamic Linear Models, Conference
on Data Analysis, Santa Fe, NM, March, 2014
Electron Flux, Solar Wind Speed, Sunspots, and Dynamic Linear Models, ASA Iowa
Chapter Meeting, Ames, IA, November, 2013
A Tale of Four Cities, Joint Statistical Meetings - Montreal, Canada, August, 2013
Intake Monitoring Assessment and Planning Program, Conference on Statistical Practice - New Orleans, February, 2013
Selecting the ”Best” Food Fortification Plan, 8th International Conference on Diet and
Activity Methods - Rome, Italy, May, 2012
WORKSHOPS
Using IMAPP (Intake Monitoring Assessment and Planning Program) to assess nutrient intake and plan intakes for groups, 16th Congress of the Latin American Nutrition
Society - Havana, Cuba, November, 2012
GRADUATE
COURSES
Statistical Methods 1 & 2
Introduction to Statistical Computing
Theory of Linear Models
Design of Experiments
Exploratory Methods and Data Mining
Advanced Statistical Methods
Spatial Statistics
Time Series
Reliability (audit)
Probability and Statistics 1 & 2
Multivariate Statistical Methods
Methods of Counts and Proportions
Theory and Application of Survey Sampling
Bayesian Statistics
Advanced Probability Theory
Advanced Theory of Statistical Inference
Advanced Bayesian Methods
SERVICE
Honors and Awards Committee Member, STAT-ers
Safety Committee Member, STAT-ers
Diversity Committee Member, STAT-ers
Recycling Committee Member, STAT-ers
Fall
Fall
Fall
Fall
2012
2011
2010
2009
TECHNICAL
SKILLS
Statistical Software: R (significant experience)
JMP, SAS, and Python (some experience)
Computer Applications: TEX, LATEX, , knitr, Microsoft Office
Operating Systems: Apple OS X, Microsoft Windows
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Spring
Spring
Spring
Spring
2013
2012
2011
2010