-
1
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A STMULATION MODEL OF TOWN, EXPENDTTURES
by DAVLD LAPIDES
Submitted in Partial -Fulfillment
of the Requirements for the
Degree of Bachelor of Science'
at the
MASSACRUSETTS INSTETUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
June, 1971
Signature of Author ..................... . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . .
Department of Urban Stude and Planning,
May 14, 1971
Certified by. ........... o........ 4......6.....*.....
Thesis Supervisor
Accepted by ......
6..
-....
..
Chairman, Departmental Committee on Theses
Rotch
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- 2 -
ABSTRACT
The work for this thesis involved modeling local government revenue
collection and expenditures given certain population characteristics-specifically age structure and gross population density.
The technique
employed in the model was similar to traditional simulation techniques.
Stocks were calculated as linear functions of flows.
But the flows were
derived through programmed responses to endogenous events.
if the property tax rate rises "too rapidly",
As an example,
public service expenditures
are cut by two percent. The method produced reasonable descriptions of
town expenditures.
The most important result of the model was its
depicting the lessening importance of education on a town's budget as
the town reaches its maximum population.
- 3 -
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author is indebted to Mr. Anthony Yezer who suggested many of
sectors that were investigated during the development of this model.
Mr. Yezer also guided the author through some of the intricasies of
modeling urban systems.
The computer time necessary for the implementation
and validation of the model was provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston.
- 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
.2
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
3
. . . . .
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES
INTRODUCTION . . . . . . .
Basic Assumptions . . .
Treatment of Time . . .
. .7
10
. . 12
.
.
.
13
13
16
17
18
20
21
21
22
25
26
THE MODEL . . . . . ... . . . . . . . .
Demographic Sector . . . . . . . .
Residential Property . . . . . . .
Commercial and Industrial Property
Local Government Expenditures . . .
Education . . . . ....... . .
Other Public Service Expenditures .
Non-Service Expenditures . . . . .
State and Federal Grants-in-Aid . .
Debt Financing . . . . . . . . . .
Local Revenue Sources . . . . . . .
BASIC MODEL BEHAVIOR
. . . . .
ALTERNATE FORMS OF THE MODEL .
Constant Birth Rate Run . ....
Skyrocketing Expenditures Run
Municipal Income Tax Run . . . .
Reversed Highway Multiplier Run .
Incoming Industry Run . . . . . .
CONCLUSION
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
APPENDICES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Appendix A: An Analysis of 40 Cities
Appendix B: Multiplier Functions . .
Appendix C: Running the Model . . .
Appendix D: Other Model Runs . . . .
Appendix E: Model Listing . . . . .
BIBLIOGRAPHY
.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
33
33
37
40
40
46
.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
.
and
. .
. .
. .
. .
Towns in Massachusetts
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
51
62
66
67
74
96
F
- 5 LLST OF TABLES. AND FIGURES
MAJOR MODEL COMPONENTS
14
ELEMENTS OF THE STATE AID FORMULA........
22
BASIC MODEL RUN*
.
.
. . . . . .
31
. . .
34
SELECTED POPULATION BREAKDOWNS
35
. . . .
CONSTANT BIRTH RATE RUN*
INCREASING PUBLIC EXPENDITURES RUN* . . . . . .
38
COMPARISON OF TAX BURDENS IN YEAR 5 . . . . . .
41
MUNICIPAL INCOME TAX RUN*............
. . . . . . . . . . . 42
REVERSED HIGHWAY MULTIPLIER RUN*
. . . . . . .
INCOMING INDUSTRY RUN*
.
...
.
. . . 44
47
. &
EXPENDITURES PROFILE OF 40 MASSACHUSETTS CITIES AND TOWNS
52
.
53
ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR ARLINGTON
MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OUTPUT** . . .
Public Services per Capita . . . . . . . .
Protection per Capita . . . . . . . . . . .
Highways per Capita...
..........
Education per Capita . . . . . . . . . . .
MULTIPLIER FUNCTIONS
Protection Multiplier . . . . . .. ....
Health Services Multiplier
Water.and Sanitation Multiplier....--.
Public Administration Multiplier . . . .
Highway Multiplier
Miscellaneous Expenditure Multiplier . .
Education Multiplier . . . . . . . . . .
, . ...
.
Recreation:Multiplier.
Density :(Migration) Multiplier . . . . .
.
.
.
.
MASS.
. . .
54
54
56
.
. . . . 60
. ..
. . .
- - .
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.
. . .
.
.
.
. .
. . .
..
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.
.
.
.
63
63
63
63
64
64
64
65
65
65
Model run output consists of two pages; the first is a tabulation of
the major endogenous variables and the second is a plot of some of them.
*
Regression output consists of two pages per equation; the first contains the estimated coefficients and several relevant statistics and the
second contains a tabulation of both the actual and estimated values of
the dependent variable for each observation. This tabulation is in the
same order as the EXPENDITURES PROFILE found on page 52.
**
OTHER MODEL RUNS* . . . . . . . . . . ..
---..
Lengthened. Debt Amortization Period Run . .........
--.-.-.-... -.-
EnlargedIndustrial Tax Base Run ... ... . . . . . . . . . ..
............
. .
.
Departing Industry Ron
*
68
. .68
..
70
72
The note on page 5 concerning model run output applies here, also.
- 7 INTRODUCTION
During the last decade, there have been numerous attempts to model
the behavior of urban regions.
These models have dealt with specific
localities, or not, depending upon the model builders undertaking the
project and their respective sponsors.
multivariate regression analysis,
models.
The techniques have included
linear programming and simulation
All of these techniques have become feasible with the advent
of modern high speed computers with their high level programming languages.
Quite frequently, these and other methods-are combined in the development
of theories of regional behavior.
For example, regression analysis is
well suited for fitting parameter values because it produces measures of
statistical relationships between several different real world events.
These parameters can then be used in simulation models
The point has been made numerous times that the computer has provided
the social scientist with his first "laboratory" with which he could
formulate experiments in a controlled environment and t-est their consequences.
"Bad" experiments could be disposed of without wrecking havoc
on the real world.
the real world.
These experiments are, however, one step removed from
They differ from the traditional concept of "experiments".
Whereas the physicist or the biologist is able to study the real world
through physical measurements, the model builder must work with symbolic
analogues of that world.
This is a more difficult'problem. The model builder
For an introduction to the subject of model building, see Lowry [71 and
Kilbridge [6]. Lowry [8], Forrester [4] and Hamilton [5] discuss specific
urban models.
NOTE: The numbers enclosed in brackets "[.1" are keyed to specific refences
to background material. See page 96.
- 8 -
must make additional specific assumptions. about his choisce of symbols.
Not only is he susceptible to error in making these assumptions, but the
results of his experiments are highly biased by them.
Simulation is perhaps more vulnerable to errors in assumptions than
other modeling techniques.
It needn't be.
But in practice, this method
is used to generate soluti6ns to problems of sufficient complexity to
stymie analytical solution.
Errors become difficult to detect.
The
method consists of dynamically interconnecting a closed system of stocks
and flows in such a way that the current value of either is completely
determined by the current value of the other plus, perhaps, an external
condition.
(Stocks, or levels, may be thought of as an accumulation of
similar items over time; e.g., single-family homes in a town or gallons
of water in a tank.
time; e.g.,
Flows, or rates, describe the change in stocks over
demolitions per year, gallons per minute.)
The interconnections
between the two types of variables must include at least one feedback loop
so-that after one round (iteration) of calculations,
the solution gene-
rator is able to start anew using the latest state of the system.
The
number of iterations is determined by the model builder, as is the time
span an iteration represents.
The time span used depends on how quickly
the system variables react to change.
By observing the changes in value
of important system variables (which can be either stocks or flows), the
model builder is able to test a hypothesis.
No matter which techniques he chooses to employ, the model builder
must draw a boundary around his model (the principle of closure).
can not possibly include all variables of interest in his model.
the cost of doing so would be prohibitive.
He
For one,
More importantly, significant
results may be lost in the ensuing clatter.
The model builder must decide
which variables are important to the problem at hand, and which are not.
He can then limit his model to include only those relationships which
affect these important variables.
the model (endogenous
variabes),
Their values will be determined within
whie theI
valU
Lies Iohr
f the
wib
Because
supplied from outside the model boundaries (exogenous variables).
simulation models require that the stocks and flows determine each other,
the technique requires perfect and complete information about the state
of the system be available in the linkages between them.
The modeling technique employed for this analysis can at best be
described as quasi-simulation.
While stocks are calculated in the manner
of traditional simulation models, the flows which determine them vary
according to strictly (and exogenously) prescribed responses to endogenous
events.
This is an attempt to model a community using concepts such as
"a large tax increase".
Some parts of the model do not react until certain
threshold values are reached,
react.
and then they may either under-react or overThis
Other parts change independently of the rest of the model.
formulation springs from the author's doubts in the existence of complete
closure in the real world.
Governments are the creatures of imperfect
beings--people--and suffer, like them, from the lack of complete information.
They can not, therefore, reach an optimal level of performance.
They can
only reach some satisfactory level as measured by their citizenry.
The analysis also rests on the bureaucratic nature of large organizations in general and governments in particular.
itself in the real world as follows:
This behavior manifests
The first is the principle of inertia--
the organization will steer along the same course until it sees the shoals
-
10
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under its bow; this principle will then hold for any new course the organization takes.
The other is the ability of organizations to spend a larger
sum each year for the same task.
Given the above, this thesis describes the author's attempt to model
The major
the public expenditures of an established medium-sized town.
endogenous variables which affect these expenditures are all related to
the town's population--its size, density or age breakdown.
The town is
a bedroom community located near a large metropolis and is surrounded by
other communities.
Its citizens may work or shop in them, but the model
does not include these interactions.
behavior of the model community.
It is concerned only with the internal
The study was based on the spending
patterns of towns in the Greater Boston area; however, no specific town
was chosen for detailed study.
For the sake of easy reading, the model.
community will be called "Arlmont".
BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
The author made several simplifying assumptions about the nature of
Arlmont and the world it exists in. Some are more important than others.
The first two assumptions limit the scope of the analysis to Arlmont, and
the final two exclude certain exogenous phenomena which can greatly affect
a town in the real world.
With the exception of the seventh (which has
been discussed), the others exist only to simplify the model.
They could
be either relaxed or eliminated in a future version of the model.
1.) All activity of interest occurs within the municipal
boundaries of Arimont.
2.) No public facilities or services are provided for nonresidents.
3.) The amount of land in Arlmont is fixed for the duration of
th-e model.
4.1 There are only three types of land in Arlmont--residential,
commercial and industrial.
5.) Government services are labor intensive.
measured by dollar inputs.
Their quality is
6.) Community expenditure rates vary with density and other
measures of population.
7.)
Community expenditure decisions are bureaucratic in nature.
8.)
There are costs imposed by exogenous forces.
9.) The population of Arlmont is evenly divided between males
and females at each age level.
10.)
The birth rate is uniformally declining through time.
11.)
Labor force pa-rtici'pation is limited to one person per family.
12.)
There are no private schools in or near Arlmont.
13.)
Public welfare assistance is provided by an outside agency.
14.) There are no major technological breakthroughs during the
model period.
15.) No wars, depressions or natural disasters occur during the
model period which affect Arlmont.
A more interesting topic concerns assumptions that were not made;
1.)
Property is assessed at fair market value; and
2.) The parameters and exogenous variables used in this model
are correct.
Few communities in this country assess real property at full market value,
even when they are legally required to do so.
Different types of property
are taxed not only at different effective rates, but by different methods.
There is no need for a model builder to knowingly construct his model with
non-realistic formulations if realism imposes no great costs.
present case, the price exacted is nil.
In the
The model taxes property as a
-'12
function of the past or present income of the owner, or as a function of
the income it produces.
of parameter values, it
Because the model was stable for a wide range
is impossible to define the "correct" values.
The model needs only their general form and approximate value.
TREATMENT OF TIME
In the model, time is measured in years, one year per model iteration.
Most events of interest in the model occur on an annual basis, or are
reported on one.
The terms:"year" and "iteration" will be used inter-
changeably in this thesis.
The length of the simulation is fifty years.
-
13
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THE MODEL
The model is divided into two sectors: the private sector and the
The private sector is characterized by an initial
government sector.
age breakdown and an income distribution which is dependent on age.
private sector generates demands for specific public services.
The
Some of
- these demands are made by the entire community, others by only segments
of it. These demands may be modified by different endogenous community
characteristics.
for services.
and human).
The government sector attempts to meet these demands
In this attempt, it must tax its residents (both corporate
These taxes are borne differentially across the age spectrum.
In the following pages, the different subsectors of the model will be
analyzed.
DEMOGRAPHIC SECTOR
The population of Arlmont is divided into thirteen distinct age
groups
.
At the start of each iteration, the respective death rates are
applied to the population of each age cohort.
These death rates are
based on an abridged life table for the United States3 . Although the
author recognized that the death rates for individual cohorts will
change in the future, he made no attempt to include such changes in the
model.
A fixed percentage of the survivors in a cohort were aged, each
iteration, into the next older cohort.
This percentage depended solely
on the length in years of a particular cohort.
For example, one-sixth
2 The age cohorts are 0-4 years, 5-12, 13-18, 19-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39,
40-44, 45-49, 50-59, 60-64 and 65 and over.
3 Derived from Bogue [1], Table 16.3, p. 553.
- 14 FIGURE 1
MAJOR MODEL .CQP
-
15 -
of the population between 19 and 24 years old were aged into the 25 to 29
years old cohort.
4
This technique may mask the actual aging sequence .
The method assumes that each cohort has a uniform age structure.
If the
micro-breakdown of the population shows either a trough or bump for a
particular age span, the model's aging technique will smooth it as it
shifts the fixed percentage of the cohort obt at the start of an iteration.
Early runs of the model employed larger age spans and -suffered from this
problem.
The breakdown used appears to be the best compromise between
strict realism and economic use of computer running time.
Table
does exhibit the effect.
page
New inhabitants are created within the model by one of two methods-they are either born to presently existing female inhabitants of Arlmont
who are of childbearing age, or they move to the town from other communities.
The birth rates are based on age specific birth rates 5 . These
are modified by an exogenously supplied family participation rate for
each cohort and a uniformally declining birth rate.
Migration coefficients are initially identical for each age cohort.
They are modified differentially by events as the model iterates through
time.
The younger cohorts have a greater propensity to react to changing
conditions than the older cohorts.
The oldest cohort--people who are 65
or older--is non-responsive to all but the most intense forces.
under the age of 19 migrate only with their parents.
Children
The migration
coefficients are increased by rising levels of public services and new
4 Hamilton [5] discusses the problem. See pages 140-141.
5 Derived from Bogue [1], Table 18.8, p. 684.
- 16
employment opportunities.
-
Rapidly increasing taxes and departing industries
MigrationVais also
either stem the tide of immigrants or create emigrants.'
affected by gross population density.
High taxes, by themselves, do not cause emigration from Arlmont
because, presumably, those who could not afford to pay them would never
settle in the town.
If they had been living in the town for some years
before the taxes had risen to their present levels, they would have left
during the period of tax increases.
this situation is imperfect.
tax rate to last year's.
The model's technique for handling
The model calculates the ratio of this year's
If the ratio is greater than some threshold
value (five percent was used) then both the migration coefficients and
the town budget are affected.
Thus the model could experience several
successive tax increases whose computed ratios were just under the threshold with no other effects on the community.
This weakness could have
-been avoided if a moving average of successive tax rates was employed in
the model.
At the same time, the model should display differential
reactions depending upon the severity of the tax increase.
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
There is no explicit housing sector in the model.
In its place,
-there is a multiplier function which affects immigration.
takes on values between 1.0 and -1.2 as density increases.
in the manner of a zoning ordinance.
This multiplier
It performs
It is neutral towards emigration
which is a consequence of other sectors of the model.
But it acts as a
damper on further immigration as the amount of vacant land in Arlmont is
reduced.
And like other factors which affect migration in the model, it
affects the young more than it does the old.
-
17
-
Residential property values in Arlmont are a function of the past or
present income of the residents.
pletely passed on to the tenants.
Property taxes on rental units are comFor most of the adult population,
property valuation is slightly greater than twice a family's current
annual income 6 . For the two eldest age groups, this housing-value-toincome (HVI) ratio is allowed to rise.
These two age groups contain
people with few major financial obligations, but who are about to leave
the labor force, if they have not already done so.
Thus the current
income for members of the two 'gronps is declining.
If the family units
continue living in their old homes, there is no reason why they should
experience a drop'in value along with their residents' income.
Nor is
there any reason why newly acquired housing should reflect the same HVI
ratio of the bulk of the population.
(This is not to say that the HVI
ratio for these groups will be higher than for other age groups, only
that they will not be the same.)
The HVI ratio
for the youngest adult
age group is lower than the. norm.
COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PROPERTY
Every town would prefer to hive an industrial or commercial complex
within its corporate limits thah just outside of it. Either complex
could provide jobs to residents with the same ease.
But given the nature
of the American federal system, the town would be unable to levy taxes
against the complex located just overthe town line.
a bedroom community.
Arlmont is primarily
The combined tax load carried by commercial and
6 In Appendix E of Netzer [10], there is a discussion and analysis
of
housing value to income, though not to age.
industrial properties is approximately 25% for the length of the basic
model run.
The analysis makes no assumptions concerning the nature of
either type of enterprise.
It is sufficient that the two exist.
For tax purposes, these two sectors are treated differently.
cial property is assumed to be rental property.
Commer-
Its value is calculated
by capitalizing the annual rents.c-:Because the model does not distinguish
between specific pieces of property, the average rental for all commercial
property rises by one percent each year.
This differs from the real
world where rents for specific properties may remain constant for several
years.
This method acts like a time average over all commercial property.
The amount of tax revenue to raised from industrial property is calculated
as a function of residential Jvaluation for that iteration of the model.
The coeficient of the function may change if industrial usage of land
is in a state of flux.
(This change is accomplished exogenously.)
LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
Three basic assumptions w4ere made in the INTRODUCTION about the
public services provided by the local government of Arlmont.
was that public servicesaare"abor-intensive.
The first
The nature of the tasks
7
are such that productivity for given dollar inputs iscnot like:y to rise..
The second was that public service expenditures are correlated with
8
specific endogenous variables, especially density . Superimposed over
these two assumptions is one of bureaucratic expenditure functions--"Let's
spend the same amount as last year, plus five percent.".
7 Bradford, et.al. [2] discuss measures pft-broductiity for public services.
8 Break [3] p. 172. Other important variables were median income and per
capita intergovernmental transfer payments. Correlations were positive for
all catagories investigated except highways. For corroboration, see APPENDIX A.
of this thesis.
19 Because the purpose of this analysis was to model an existing community rather than either a new one or a rapidly expanding one, it was a
simple matter to initialize the various expenditure rates.
One needed
only to define some expenditure level per some unit of interest for the
particularpublic service under examination.
The unit of interest usually
depends on the prime benefactor of the expenditure.
For most expenditures,
this rate will be a function of total population, but it
needn't be; e.g.,
"per pupil" and "per street mile" are quite reasonable measures of school
and street maintainence expenditures respectively.
These initial rates
are allowed to rise whenever the budget process produces a surplus.
Most of the expenditures studied were found to vary with the density
Although there are economies of scale in servicing a
of the community.
dense population, these do not seem to completely outweigh the additional
services which are required by dense populations.
As an example, fire
-departments can serve a larger population within a given distance from
a 'firehouse as density increases.
But the cost of equipment to reach
fires in multistorey buildings is more expensive.
Now add the consideration
that, because fires are potentially more dangerous in dense environments,
a community may want more firehouses per capita.
Needless to say, the most important determinant of local expenditures
is local wealth.
State and federal grant-in-aid programs may have the
intention of "equalizing" the tax burdens of different communities, but
for various reasons rarely do.
State programs usually guarantee some
minimum non-negative amount in aid for each community in the state, thus
partj_': negating any
equaliuing
features in the aid formulas.
Any program
which requires matching grants benefits the wealthier communities as they
are better able to take advantage of such programs.
The most striking
-
20 -
feature of the tax structure is that affluent communities are able to
support superior services with only modest tax rates.
Poorer communities
must exact much higher tax-rates on their property owners in order to
provide a lower level of services.
(Because of importdnce of labor costs
in determining a given level of services, this level is considered herein
to be equivalent to the dollar inputs.)
In the pages that follow, the
individual expenditure catagories will be examined.
EDUCATION
In the case of education, density deed not appear to be one of the
major determinants of the expenditure level
9
.
From the analysis described
in APPENDIX A, it appears that the youthfulness of the adult population
might be an important factor influencing the:'school budget.
Based on
this, the model contains a multiplier function whose value depends on
the percentage of Arlmont's population which is between the ages of 25
and 45.
This age group is likely to have the most interest in a large
school budget.
In addition to this mbltiplier function, the model assumes that all
children between the ages 5 and 18 attend the public school system with
negligible truancy.
In many comniunities in Massachusetts, this assumption
is not valid because the Catholic Church runs an extensive low-tuition
parochial school system. . This has the dual effects pf lowering the
incentive of a town's population to support the public school system and
it
lowers Its average daily attendance.
The&"bread and butter" state
9 Weiss [11] discusses in much detail school financing in New England.
10 In 1969, there were 1,070,000 public school students and 290,000
non-public school students in Massachusetts. League of Women Voters [13],
Table I, Appendix I.
- 21 school aid program uses this as a measure of school system size because
it more accurately reflects the school system's load on the local taxpayers.
The model essentially ignores this measure by defining the
average daily attendance to be equal to the number of school age children
in Arlmont.
An interesting problem, which was not investigated in the
course of this analysis, would to have modeled the effects on Arlmont of
a parochial school's closing.
OTHER PUBLIC SERVICE EXPENDITURES
The other catagories of government expenditures are not well developed
in the model.
Each of their respective functions contains a multiplier
which depends on an endogenous variable in the model.
Recreation is
allowed to vary with the percentage of young adults in Arlmont,s.as was
education.
Highway expenditures decline as density increases, but the
other expenditure catagories all increase with density.
are approximations ofl real world:phenomena.
The multipliers
APPENDIX A contains the
results of some regression equations which support the shapes of these
multipliers.
The multipliers themselves are depicted in APPENDIX B.
As will be shown below, the model is insensitive to the exact form the
multipliers take.
.NON-SERVICE EXPENDITURES
There are two final catagories of local government expenditures in
the model--debt service and mandated expenses.
Debt service will be
discussed along with the other aspects of government debt financing.
Mandated expenditures are those expenditures local governments must make
because they exist.
- 22 The main components of this catagory are employee
withholding taxes, insurance and pensions.
depends upon community size and wealth.
The size of the expenditures
This relationship is intuitive
because larger communities employ more people and have more buildings
and vehicles, while wealthier ones can pay larger salaries to current
employees and larger pensions to retired ones.
the size of the catagory.
All of these increase
Once a level of expenditures has been reached,
there is little a local government can do to lower it, other than firing
most of its employees.
insurance premiums.
Even then, it must continue paying pensions and
Recognizing this, the model permits Arlmont to make
only fractional cuts in mandated expenditures when population size might
indicate lower expenditures.
STATE AND FEDERAL GRANTS-IN-AID
The state grant-in-aid formula used in the model generates specific
grants in two of the three areas where states are most active:
and highways".
(The third area is.public welfare.
the state handles all welfate expenditures directly.)
much less complicated than the ones they are based on
education
But in this analysis,
These formulas are
12
.
rt
is possible
for a community to raise its aid percentage for educational grants, and
therefore its actual grant, by maintaining relatively low assessment-tovalue ratios.
The model and the real world place constraint on the aid
formula which prevents communitys'fdoing this by having a maximum aid
percentage.
The minimum aid percentage guarantees that each community
11 Maxwell [9] pp 73-79.
12 The formulas are derived from the League of Women Voters [13] and the
First National Bank of Boston [14].
- 23 -
TABLE 1
ELEMENTS OF THE STATE ALD FORMULA
EDUCATIONAL SECTOR
1.) AID % = 1.00
-
0.65 x LOCAL VALUATION / PUPIL
STATE AVG. VAL. / PUPIL
2.) If AID %
If AID %
3.) AIDt
=
0.15, then AID % = 0.15
0.75, then AID % = 0.75
(AID %) x ((0.9 x EXP t) - AIDett-*
AID % is the "aid percentage"
AIDe is the amount of aid for education for iteration t
t
EXP is the local estimated expenditure for education
t
HIGHWAY SECTOR
ADh
h
1.) IADh
AID = (0.25) x ((0.4 x EXPt) -AIDt)
h
is the amount of.aid for streets and highways
t
EXP is the local estimated expenditure for streets and highways
AID
FOUNDATION AID
= RSTA x TPOPt
t
f.
AID is a flat foundation grant for each community in the state
t
TPOPt is the community's current population
1.) AID
RSTA is the per capita rate for this grant
TOTAL OF STATE GRANTS-IN-AID
1.) TOTALt 1 =,AIDe,
:AIIt.'AD
+AID,
+AID
t
- 24 in the state will receive at least some non-negative amount in aid.
This
(The parts of the state
constraint is also drawn from the real world.
grant-in-aid formula aregiven in Table
One part of the aid.f6rmula used in Massachusetts that was not incorporated in the model would affect the final part of the aid (for education)
formula.
The model applies the aid percentage to a portion of the estiThis portion is called
mated school expenditures for that iteration.
"reimbursable expenditures".
It is calculated by first subtracting from
the school budget those items that are covered by other grant-in-aid
programs, or are not available for any state aid, and then subtracting
from this,. the previous year's state grant.
The remainder is used to
calculate this year's grant. The model makes no assumptions about what
specific parts of the school budget will be disallowed.
assumes ten percent of the total will be.
Rather, it
Nothing prevents a community,
in the model, from continually spending larger amounts on education and
having the state pick up a percentage of the tab.
runs, this in fact is what occurs.
In one of the model
The Massachusetts formula attempts
to prevent this by setting a minimum and maximum limit on the amount of
state aid per pupil a school system may receive.
State aid for'.highways and streets is based on a percentage of
Arlmont's expected expenditures minus the previous year's state grant.
The formula should explicitly take into account the town's population
and density.
Instead it
implicityly recognizes them, as they determine
the estimated local expenditures in the model.
state aid is a flat per-capita grant.
The final component of
The size of this last grant's
rate is increased by one percent each iteration.
- 25 Federal grants-in-aid play a relatively minor role in the model.
This is caused by the model's hiding federal dollars, which have been
channeTed through the state government, within the state aid figures.
After examining several town budgets, the author felt that direct federal
aid to medium-sized communities is limited at the present.
DEBT FINANCING
The bonding capacity of municipalities in the United States is
generally limited by statute '.
The most common limitation is to make
bonding capacity a percentage of the community's assessed property
valuation.
Needless to say, a community can raise its debt limit by
raising property assessments.
In the model, Arlmont- is constrained from
borrowing more than five percent of its total property valuation.
This
limit was never reached in any of the model runs in the course of this
.study.
Rather than authorizing a large bond issue every several years to
finance capital improvements, the town's policy:'is to issue a small issue
each year.
financed.
The model makes no assumptions about the nature of the projects
The size of the bond issue is a function of population which
is modified each iteration by a random number generator.
Arlmont is
especially fortunate to be located in an area where long term interest
rates are fixed for the entire modeling period at four percent.
For most
of the modelzruns, the amortization period for all bond issues is twenty
years.
Because of these twin assumptions--constant interest rates and
constant bond lifes--debt service calculation is very simple.
13 Maxwell [9] p. 194.
If the
26 -
-
interest rate is I and the total value of outstanding bonds is Pt (including
this year's issue), then the total interest payment for the year is I x Pt
and the principal payment is 1 / P.
The total debt service expenditure
for the year is just the sum of these two amounts.
Because of large
increases in both programming overhead and computer running time for the
model, it did not seem justified to remove the constraint1
of constant
interest rates and constant amortization periods.
The model also permitted short term borrowing (for one year) at a
higher interest rate than for long term borrowing.
only if the community had reached its debt limit.
behavior if Massachusetts is a guide.
But this was permitted
This is not realistic
It is quite common for many cities
and towns to borrow substantial amounts in anticipation of tax receipts
for the coming fiscal year.
LOCAL REVENUE SOURCES
After taking into account all funds:Arlmont has received from its
bond issues and from grant-in-aid programs, the town has two forms of
raising the money it needs--user charges and property taxes.
The first
of these is a catchall for the many different types of fees that may be
levied against specific residents.
Some of the components of this catagory
are business and professional licenses, motor vehicle excise taxes, and
water and sewer charges.
These fees play only a small part in the budget
of Arlmont, but they play an important role in the workings of the model.
The remaining amount of revenue must be raised .through the property
tax.
The tax rate is calculated simply by dividing the amount to be
raised by the town's total valuation.
T
As was mentioned earlier in this
- 27 thesis (see DEMOGRAPHIC SECTOR), it is possible for the tax rate to rise
"too rapidly".
When it does, the model reacts by cutting all public
service expenditures by two percent and recalculating the tax rate f6'
this lower level of expenditures.
The
aipdnditore
rates, themselves,
are unaffected until the model must cut expenditures in two successive..
iterations.
Then,tthey'too"are.cut. The rationale for this behavior is
as follows:
First remember that this is,a model of a bureaucratic budget
process. The town departments will consider the first budget
reduction to be only a temporary cutback. But after a second
cutback in their request in the succ6eding year, the departments
will slowly re-order their habits to reflect their smaller budgets.
After the model is able to pass through an iteration without having to
cut expenditures, the system relaxes and waits until the next large tax
increase comes along.
If nothing else were to happen, Arlmont would have a balanced budget
at the end of every iteration.
To add attouch6flrealisni to the model,
there must be some mechanism through which one or both sides of the
financial statement can be juggles to produce either a budget surplus
or deficit.
The mechanism used in the model was a random number generator
applied to the user charges amount after the tax rate had been computed.
If a surplus resulted, the model adds the amount to its cash balance
and finishes up the iteration.
This includes increasing the different
public service expenditure rates and making a small increase in the migration
rates.
"Small" deficits are subtracted from the cash balance and the
iteration is completed without increasing either the expenditure rates or
the migration rates.
(Small is defined as being less than three-quarters
of the town's cash balance for the current iteration.)
- 28
-
This leaves only the problem of h'andling "large" deficits.
The
model goes through a lengthy series, of calculations in which it attempts
to borrow the amount needed to cover the deficit with long term bonds.
If the town's debt limit is reached in doing so, the town must borrow
the remaining portion (over the debt limit) for a year only and pay short
term interest rates.
The method was not satisfactory to the author.
But as it was not crucial to this analysis, no time was spent in improving
it. None of the computer runs.of the model used this section.
-
29 -
BASIC MODEL BEHAVIOR
The model's behavior can be explained by two independent processes
which, together, act to reduce the importance of educati'on in the town's
budget.
The first of these is the model's decliniingbirth rate.
should be obvious that (ceteris paribu')
rt
with a declining.birth rate, a
given number of adults will produce fewer children in model year 50 than
in year 1. As a result, the under-five-years-old age group reaches its
maximum size in year 45 of the simulation; but as a percentage of the
whole population, this age group reaches its peak around year 25.
And
twenty-five years.out in the model, a secondary effect comes into play-there are fewer adults
ni
the prime child-bearing age groups.
Added to this is the out-migraiion which is caused by A tightening
housing market.
This effect is generated in the model by the migration
multiplier's going negative.
As has been discussed, the youngest families
are the ones most affected by this.
current homes.
Older families can retain their
But it's the younger families that have pre-school age
and school age children.
The previously mentioned secondary affect also
applies here.
These two factors reduce the relative size of the school age population
and thus the importance--of the school budget which is a function of it.
The school budget is influenced by the prpportion of young adults in the
community.
But this proportion is diminishing through time.
As the
following computer print-outs show, education becomes a smaller percentage
of public expenditures.
Although the expenditure per school age child is
increasing, the total expenditure per capita is not increasing, as rapidly
as it is for other expenditures.
- 30 Education is still the most important part of the town's, budget and
thus it has a major influence on the property tax rate.
But because it
is of diminishing importance as time goes on, the property tax rate is
able to remain relatively stable for the last half of the simulation.
Increasing property values (as measured by their assessed values) are
able to keep pace with the demands for increased public expenditures
during this period.
If education was not a relatively declining expense,
the tax rates would continue to rise.
When the population begins to
level off during the final ten years of the simulation, the tax rate
declines.
DATE -VERSION
5/ 9/71
3
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOL0Y
BASIC
5
10
15
20
1
PAGE --
MODEL RUN
MnDIFICATTON
25
30
35
40
4
45
50
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATION -EXPENoITURES
PROTECTION SERVICES
HI69.AY EXPENDITURES
WATER AND SANTTATION
RECREATION AND PARKS
HOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUbLIC AUPINISTRATION
OTHER EXPENDITURES
TOTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
MANnATED COSTS
DEBT SERVICE
TOTAL EXPFNDITURES
8152.6
2328.4
1627.6
953,8
4227.2
20237.5
3055.5
837.7
24130*7.
9207.9
2725.7
1795.2
1642.0
618.9
1192.0
1116.6
4986.9
?3285.2
3405.6
909.7
27600.5
18342.9
2686.9
21031.8
667.4
2157.7
287.5
24144.4
21123.4
2972.5
24095.9
631 *
2540.1
352.8
27620.0
1402.6
550..
995.4
10696,7
11834.2
3334.4
3910.6
2031.2
2008.7
730,4
1496.8
1365.9
6155,6
27825s5
2184.2
2355,8
3918.8
971.8
32716.1
816.5
1790.4
1581.7
7232.6
.31710.0
4270.7
1037.0
37017.7
13859.3
4919.6
2479.5
2963.6
959.9
?264.8
1919.9
8990.8
38377.4
4933.5
1105.8
44416.8
15078,2
5713,4
2633.2
3441,8
1045.8
2678.7
2165,3
10342.5
43098.9
5326.1
1187.1
49612.1
34764.9
4176.3
38941.3
804,5
3975,3
716.3
44437,3
38837.6
4612.9
43450.5
17078.0
6818.0
2936.2
4107.2
1185.7
3217.7
2510.2
12259.3
50132.4
6018.4
1273.2
57424,0
18611.7
7746.5
3180.3
4666.6
1298 .0
3671.8
2834,1
13866.1
55875.2
6582.9
1325.0
63783,1
19993.3
8570.3
3414.1
5116.4
1404.2
4048.1
3111.9
15314.2
60972.1
7119.6
1416.7
69508.5
20849.3
9117.8
3573.0
54 04,5
1476.7
4292,0
3297,4
16281.5
64292.2
7483,9
1463.0
73239,2
REVENUES
PROPERTY
TAXES
USER CHARGES
TOTAL LOCAL REVENUES
BORROWINGS
STATE GRANTS
FEDTRAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVENUES
.IET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
CLIM SURPLUS OR
DEFICIT
13.7
538.2
19.5
566.8
278714.4
56177.5
41807.?
376699.1
48,7
309152.4
62013.3
46372.9
417536.5
50.6
18P35.0
?0876.9
_9307.6
9527.4
10108,2
10768.7
51.4
5.1
87.4
393.6
33.8
54.0
5.4
86.8
431.2
33,4
9.9
25.3
56.6
7732.0
?8264.1
25344.7
3314*7
28659.4
654.8
2913.0
444,2
32731.4
28666.5
3716.3
32382.8
720.1
3361.2
564.9
37029,1
876.8
4382.9
891.9
49602.2
4951.9
1078.4
57424.8
11.3
564.3
20.6
614.7
559.5
69287,7
5?366.7
397685.4
77805.0
59652,8
454175.1
87271.2
516184.5
97079.8
470765,
53.8
535143.2
53,6
68126,3
609572.6
77427.7
69069?.0
57.0
23538.3
10797.4
127'0.9
26757.2
11522.5
15234.6
61.3
6.1
83.9
517.0
32.0
10.6
27.3
57.5
8724.9
31898.0
15.3
620.7
45422,0
5072.9
, 50494.8
R99.7
-9,9
.8
647,8
50817,7
9,492. 8
55518,2
5881.9
838.0
61400.?
961.2
5631 0.5
5363.9
1269.0
5685.4
63781,4
69505.0
-1.8
646.4
1458.2
58510.3
6260,6
64770.9
942,9
5891
.2
1645.2
73250,2
-3.5
673.4
PROPERTY VALUATION
RESIDFNTIAL
COHmERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
USED
UNUSED
COMMUNITY DESCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DFNSITY
DEPFNOENCY RATIO
PUBLIC SERVICES / CAPITA
EDUCATION AS % OF EXPEND
PROTECTION AS I OF EXPhD
STATE AIU % FOR EDUCAT'N
PROPERTY TAX AS I OF REV
VALUATION PER CAPITA
VALUATION PER'PUPIL
9.6
23.0
56.2
7 32&, 7
27015.0
349111.5
57,4
5.7
85.3
484.7
32.7
10.2
26,2
57.4
8200,4
30058.A
648267.7
115385.5
710267.5
123593,4
775491.8
85744
.3
106540.1
940401.0
56.2
580782.6
106514.1
87042.4
773839.1
58,7
59.3
59.0
11A323.8
1023057.4
57,2
30478.6
12286.9
18191.7
34534.6
13189.7
21344.9
38692.0
14147.1
24544.9
42872.2
47020.1
15741.4
31278.6
51152.9
16255.9
34897.0
65.5
6.5
82.5
586.3
31.2
11.1
28.4
58.3
931?.3
33876.3
69,3
6.9
80.9
622.1
30.4
11.5
29.0
72.3
7.2
79.5
693,1
29.7
11.9
29.2
59.3
10699.4
38829.5
74.5
58.5
9969,3
36150.7
06790,2
14722,4
?8149.8-
7.5
78.2
749.5
?o.2
12.1
29.1
60.0
4115?.1
41932.7
76.0
7.6
77.1
802.5
28.8
12.3
28.6
60.3
12377.9
45443.6
131241 .
8
76.8
7.7
76.3
837,6
28.5
12.4
28.1
60.5
13328.0
49343,6
DATE -VERSION
5/ 9/71
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
BASIC MODEL RUN
3
P
= TOTAL- POPULATION
Tm PROPERTY TAX RATE
R
E
a TOTAL REVENUES
a TOTAL FXPENnITURES
AS % OF EXPENDITURES
I FOR EDUCATION
S = EDUCATION
a PROPERTY TAX AS % OF REVENUE
X= PUBLI C SERVICES PER CAPITA
A a STAT E AID
* = COINCIDENT POINTS
L
100. +
4-
-------
90
4-------4
I
I
I
I
80
PAGE -MODIFICATION
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ThXES Ais
OF REVEN
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4
+
*
*
-
-
-
-
-
*
-
-
-
+
-
-
-.
I
-
+ -
.-
- .
-
-
- .
-*
-
- - - - - + -
-
-
*
-
+
PO PURTIcqN
I PERCENT
E
K~XP E~4
RRI~tE
PER CRIP-iAbA.
s kr
AL t!X P ENb TuQRn.
I#Lk KESA RE4VENUE
PERCENT
AI
l'
I
STATE 0
.-----.-.-----.-.-----F-- .
20n
-
II
I
I
ToT
Tfi
-
4
I
I
----
P
Cfi,
OF E
PE~T1.RES
I
II
C
Ar
...
---
4
/
I
I
I
.
II
I
.1
.
I
I
I
I
I
I
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4
I
I
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I
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I
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I
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I
04-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------0
2
4
6
8 10
12
14
16
18
20
2?
24 26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40. 42
44
I.
46
48
50
2
4
-
33
-
ALTERNATE FORMS. Of THE MODEL
Besides the basic model, the author worked with several alternate
constructs of it. The purpose of this exercise was to study the model's
behavior in different environments and to test its stability.
construct was changed for any particular run.
model was insensitive to these changes.
Only one
With two-exceptions, the
One of the exceptions negated
a basic construct of the model and the other introduced changes-of'catastrophic effect into the model.
(Computer print outs follow the description
of each of these runs.)
CONSTANT BIRTH RATE RUN
The basic model contained a birth. rate multiplier which declined
from 1.0 to 0.9 uniformally over the model period.
This run held the
.birth rate constant in an attemp to study the dynamics of the demographic
sector of the model.
As Table
shows, children will make up a larger
percentage of the population, but the number of people of childbearing
age increases hardly at all.
(Note the smoothing effect described in
the DEMOGRAPHIC SECTOR shows up in year 20 of the table.)
The model's
density multiplier is still in operation and is trying to limit population
growth.
It is unable to directly affect those residents under the age
of 19, so it works on the older age groups.
At first, the density multi-
plier is only slowing down immigration, but near the end of both the
BASIC MODEL RUN and the CONSTANT BIRTH RATE RUN it is negative.
This
causes emigration to occur with most of the migrants coming from the
youngest adult age cohorts.
At this point, the CONSTANT BIRTH RATE RUN
begins to behave like the BASIC MODEL RUN except that it has a higher
percentage of schoolage children.
- 34 TABLE 2
SELECTED;POPULATION BREAKDOWNS:
DECLLNLNG BIRTH RATE AND CONSTANT BIRTH RATE
YEAR
1
TOTAL
POPULATION
0 - 4 YRS
25 - 29 YRS
60 - 64 YRS
1
50.01
50.0
5.6 (11.1)
5.6 (11.1)
3.1 (6.1)
3.1 (6.1)
2.0 (4.0)
2.0 (4.0)
5
51.4
51.4
5.2 (10.2)
5.3 (10.2)
3.3 (6.5)
3.3 (6.5)
1.7 (3.3)
1.7 (3.3)
10
54.0
54.1
5.5 (10.3)
5.6 (10.4)
4.0 (7.4)
4.0 (7.4)
1.5 (2.8)
1.5 (2.8)
15
57.4
57.6
6.1 (10.6)
6.2 (10.8)
4.6 (8.1)
4.6 (8.0).
1.5 (2.5)
1.5 (2.5)
20
61.3
61.8
&.7 (10.8)
6.9 (11.1)
5.1 (8.4)
5.2 (8.3)
1.4 (2.3)
1.4' (2.3)
25
65.5
66.2
7.1 (10.9):
7.4 (11.3)
5.5 (8.5)
5.6 (8.4)
1.4 (2.2)
1.4 (2.1)
30
69.3
70.3
7.5 (10.8)
7.9 (11.3)
5.9 (8.5)
5.9 (8.4)
1.4 (2.1)
1.4 (2.1)
35
72.3
73.6
7.7 (10.7)
8.2 (11.2)
6.1 (8.4)
6.1 (8.4)
1.5 (2.1)
1.5 (2.0)
40
74.5
76.1
7.8 (10.5)
8.5 (11.1)
6.3 (8.4)
6.3 (8.3)
1.6 (2.1)
1.6 (2.1)
45
76.0
77.8
7.9 (1'0.4)
8.61
-1.1)
6.4 (8.4)
6.5 (8.3)
1.7 (2.2)
1.7 (2.1)
50
76.8
78.9
7.8 (10.2)
8.7 (11.0)
6.5 (8.4)
6.6 (8.3)
1.8 (2.3)
1.7 (2.2)
The top line is from the BASIC MODEL RUN which contains a declining
birth rate. The bottom line is from the CONSTANT BIRTH RATE RUN. The
numbers enclosed in parintheses "(.)" are percentages of the total
population.
DATE --
VERSION
5/ 9/71
3
MASSACHUSETTS
5
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATInN EXPENDITURES
PROTECTION SERVICES
hIGHWAY EXPENDITURES
, ATER AND SANITATION
RECREATION AND PARKS
hOSPITALS AND HEALTH
.PUbLIC ADMINISTRATION
OTMrR EXPENDITURES
TOTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
MANDATED COSTS
DEBT SERVICE
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER CHARGES
TOTAL LOCAL REVENUES
BORPO INGS
STATE GRANTS
FEDERAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVENUES
10
8153,7
2330.2
1628.
1403.7
550.0
9224.1
99603
1197.1
1120.5
5005.5
73347.1
3411.5
910.1
27668.7
954. 5
4230.7
20247.2
3056.6
837.7
24141,6
2735.2
1797.7
1647.7
619.3
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
CONSTANT BIRTH
RATE
15
20
10755.5
3361.4
2043.4
202409
731.5
1511.4
1376.9
6208.9
28014.0
3934,7
972.9
32921.5
14104.8
5043.A
2195.8
2395.2
818.8
1827.0
1601.7
7343.6
32122,5
4301.4
2499.0
35361.5
39719.0
4222.0
4678,0
39583.5
813.,3
44397.0
889.2
4143.6
4632.7
278712.9
56196.9
41806.9
376718.7
48,7
309138.1
62121.0
46370.7
417629.8
50.7
34906506
69567.4
52362.8
471015.9
54'. 1
397701.7
78363.0
59655.3
535720.0
54.1
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
USED
UNUSED
18835.9
9308.1
95.27.9
20881.5
10111.9
10769.6
23550.8
10809.5
12741.3
26786.0
11550.7
15235.3
COMMUNITY DESCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DFNSITY
DEPrNPENCY RATIO
PUcILIC SEovICES / CAPTTA
EDC4TION AS I OF EXPFND
PRUTECTION AS I OF EXPND
STATE AID I FOR EDUCAT'N
PROPERTY TAX AS I UF REV
VALUATION PER CAPITA
VALUATION PER PUPIL
-51.4
5.1
87.5
393.7
33.8
9.7
23.1
56.2
7324*3
27009.8
5.4
431.6
33.3
9.9
25.4
56.6
7720.3
7206.5
12716.6
51801.4
6123.9
1285.2
59210,4
28979.5
3743,0
32722,5
725.3
11.4
564.3
87.1
10653.4
44251 .
25486.3
3328,1
28814.4
657.5
3016.9
448.0
32936.8
15.4
621.0
54.1
1957.1
920004
39154.5
17593.4
5401.3
1195.1
50847,8
19.5
566.8
PROPERTY VALUATION
RESIDENTIAL
COMvERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
964,1
2346.9
57.6
'5.8
86.0
4b6.0
32.7
10.2
26.7
5703
8171.8
29874.3
345304
573,6.
37474.8
6,1.8
6.2
85.2
520.0
31,9
-10.6
28,2
57,4
8672,1
31517.2
4987.4
733.0
45273.4
20.8
615.2
35
15444..8
5898.3
2659.0
3553.2
1051.2
2771.5
2219.9
1110.7.
45252,6
13.7
538.2
NET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
CUM SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
354.1
27688.2
3038.4
30
1039,6
37463.4
21170.8
2977.7
632.2
2553.3
25
11964.5
3976,1
18351.0
2689.9
21040.9
667.7
2159.0
287.7
24155,3
74148.5
PAGE -MODIFICATION
RUN
910.8
50837.7
-10.0
559.2
7090.8
2971.0
4771.6
1193.1
3354.9
2609.9
46700.0
-5161.7
51861.7
915.4
5315.4
1118.6
59211.2
.8
648,9
454315.6
88224,4
68147.3
516047,1
98449.4
77407.1
579747.8
610687.4
691903.5
57.4
775090.3
60,3
57.9
30534.4
12340.8
18193.5
34595.2
13279.0
21316.2
66.2
6.6
8403
591.7
31.2
7003
7.0
83.4
629.8
.11.1
29.7
58.1
9?28.5
33240.2
30.4
11.6
30.9
.5
3
9847.9
35199.5
108380.3
86962.2
38754.5
14280.1
24474.4
73.6
7.4
82.6
703.9
29.7.
12.0
31.7
59.0
10532.2
37489.4
40
I
4
45
50
19315.0
81 7. 7
3220.5
4834.2
13l7.7
3827.3
2941.5
14485.8
58039.8
6721.1
1341.0
66101.9
20920.6
9031.5
3461.3
5302.2
1416.4
4232.0
3249.4
16113.
63726.5
7293.9
1438,1
72458.5
22006.3
9680.5
3628.9
5630.0
1491.5
4516,0
3465.4
17255.9
67674.4
7693.8
1489,4
76857,7
r2451.2
56r08.11
85%.6
585905
132507
66100.1
57579.8
6025.9
63605.7
984.8
6330.3
1534.2
72455.0
61023.6
6436.3
67459,8
969,4
6696.?
1743.6
76869,0
1.8
647.6
-3.6
675.1
5805903
6441?.6
11 78n7.4
06619.3
850555,3
61.1
479q7.8
14899.6
78028.2
76,1
7.6
82.0
747.6
29.2
17.3
37.1
59.5
11230.2
40113.1
708291.8
126618,9
106243.8
941154.
61.7
77,510.9
134923.2
1 158 76.6
1023310.7
59,6
47057.7
15979.3
31078.4
51165,5
16548.8
34616.7
77.
7.8
81.6
818.7
28.9
12.5
32.4
59.8
12091.8
43040.6
78.9
7.9
81.5
857.6
28.6
12.6
32.6
59.9
17967.5
46246.5
DATE -VERSION
5/
3
9/71
MASSACHUSETTS
PAGE
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
CONSTANT
RIRTH
R v TOTAL REVE0UFS
POPULATION
E = TOTAL EXPENDITURES
T = PROPERTY TAY RATE
S x EDUCATION as I OF EXPENDITURES
L " PROPERTY TAX AS % OF REVENUE
A a STATE AID S FOR EDUCATION
= PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
* a COINCIDENT POINTS
.-.-.-..-.-.--.-.-..-.-.--.-.----.---..-.----.------.----.----
90 + - -
- - - -
80 + -
- - .
-
4
-+.*-
-
-
-4+-
-
-
-.
*
-
-
+
-.
-
- - - + - - -.
-- -
60 +
I
E
6
A P&(RC&NTF
OF INEuJ-NUa
- - - -
IDh
40
- -
&AObI-
I
I
kaE
A
30
I
A
4
fIst
ITt~
US
.
. .I
20*
I
I
I
+4
2
-
...........
2
0
4
6
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
10 + - - - - - -
0
2
4
-36= 1OTAL
P
100*
--
mnDIFICATION
RATE RUN
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
4-
40
--
42
w-
44
-
46
-
-
48
4
50
-4
A simple. statistic to measure which describes th-is result is the
14
dependency ratio 1 . It is defined as the ratio of the number of people
who are 18 years old or younger or 65 or'older to the number of people
between these ages.
Thus it is a rough measure of the productive segment
of the population. (Note that it does not measure labor force participation
rates.)
The CONSTANT BIRTR RATE RUN has a substantially higher depen-
dency ratio with only a slightly large population.
This run has fewer
taxpayers for the same amount of taxable land. (The. value of this property
has changed only slightly.
Therefore, the tax rate has increased somewhat
to that of the BASIC MODEL RUN.
An additional related effect is a higher
state school aid percentage which is caused by the lower valuation per
schoolage child.
This in turn produces a larger state grant-in-aid.
SKYROCKETING EXPENDITURES RUN
This run was an attempt to study "What if" expenditures began to
rapidly increase without proportionate increases either in assessed
property valuations or grants-in-aid.
the cause of the phenomenum.
No assumptions were made as to
But because the state does pick up a
pdrcentage of the school budget without limits, the results of this run
are not conclusive.
As the property taxes begin to rise in order to
-finance these expenditures, the restraints discussed earlier attempt to
limit the expenditures.
These restraints are only partially successful.
The demographic sector is more interesting.
migration slows and becomes out migration.
As taxes begin to rise, in
In the BASIC MODEL RUN, the
14 Bogue [1] discusses this demographic measure and its utility, pp.
154-156.
-DATE -VtRSION
5/ 9/171:
3
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TFCHNOLOGY
INCREASING PUBLIC EXPENDITURES RUN
5
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATIMN EXPENDITURES
PROTECTION SERVICES
HIGHAAY EXPENDITURES
WATER AI.D SANITATION
RECRF.ATION AND PARKS
HOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
OTHFR FXPENDITURES
TOTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
MANOATEI COSTS
DEBT SEPVICE
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER CHARGES
TOTAL LOCAL REVENUES
BORROWINGS
STATE GRANTS
FEDFRAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVENUES
NET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
CUM-SURPLiS DR DEFICIT
PROPERTY VALUATION
RESTDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL PRUPERTY VALUAITON
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
USED
.UNUSED
COMMUNITY DFSCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DENSITY
DEPFNDECY RATIO
PUBLIC SERVICES / CAPITA
EDUCATION AS 2 OF EXPEND
PROTECTIUN AS % OF EXPND
STATE AI % FOR EDUCAT'N
PROPERTY TAX AS I OF REV
VALUATION PER CAPITA
VALUATION PER PUPIL
8152.6
2328.4
1627.6
1402.6
550.0
995.4
953.8
4227.2
70237.5
3055.5
837.7
24130.7
18342.9
2688.9
21031.98
667.4
2157.7
287.5
24144.4
13,7
538.2
10
.15
10323.0 -
15'072.6
2999.5
1902.4
1773.3
655.8
1287.3
1205.9
5284.5
?5431.8
3405.6
971.8
29747.1
41160.8
23329.2
2972.5
32899.3
3314.7
'6001.7
36214.0
631.1
2780.9
352.8
29766.6
654.8
3863.1
444.2
41176.2
19.5
566,8
15.3
620*7
11.3
564.3
349111.5
692o7.7
397685.4
309152.4
41807.2
46372.9
48.7
2530.1
869.1
1865.3
1720.5
7324.9
36270.2
3918.8
17656.5
5466.8
2675.5
3083,7
1000,2
2348.9
2070.5
8859.6
43161.7
4270.7
1037.0
48469,5
909.7
278714.4
56177.5
376699,1
4443.4
2424.2
20
62013.3
417538.5
55.2
52366.7
470765.9
69.9
38948,5
3716.3
42664.9
720.1
4530.9
564*9
48480.8
77805.0
59652.8
535143.2
72,8
25
25989.7
8328.1
3410.8
4524.6
1320,4
3488.3
2931.1
12367.4
62360.4
4933.5
1105.8
68399.8
56181.9
4176.3
60358.2
804.5
6541 .3
716.3
68420.3
PAGE --
1
MODIFICATION
30
35
40
45
29938.7
10146.1
42A20.?
.55135.8
14A62.1
3728.7
5460.8
1480.8
A468.9
19?30.7
5516 . 5
9691.8
4250.0
5954,4
4682.2
3435.5
14645.2
73085.8
5326.1
1187.1
79599.0
7600.5
1885.3
2251.5
7625.9
70307.6
24560.5
6460.1
11925.9
2657.0
9435.8
19493.5
24051.8
101567.1
6018.4
179390.2
6587.9
1273.2
108858.8
7252.5
28977.1
161576.6
7119,6
1325.0
117298.1
170113.n
65717.9
4612.9
70330.9
876.8
91374,6
7489,4
891.9
10434.0
79589,1
4
5072.9
96447.4
899.7
1078.4
108859.5
5886,1
116574.7
5497.8
172067.5
838.0
13121.9
1269.0
137296.4
1416.7
145865.0
5881.9
151747.0
961.2
15943.1
1458.?
170109.5
50
8?197,1
28754.0
7164,3
13604.7
2960.9
10804.4
8300,7
32646.3
186432.3
7483.9
1463,0
195379.3
168335,6
6260.6
174596.3
942.9
18205.9
1645.2
195390,3
1.8
-3.5
11.0
647.8
646.4
673.4
704.6
580 282.6
645267.7
710267.5
1 15385
123593".
775491,8
92.2
516184.5
97079.8
77427.7
690692.0
95.1
20.6
614.7
454175.1
87271.?
68126,3
609572.6
*9.9
559.5
514 1
87042. a
5
06790.2? 106540.1
773839.1! 857443.3
940401,0
136.0
118.1
155.1
131?,1
1
116323.8
1 023057.4
164.5
18835.0
9307.6
9527,4
20876.9
10106.2
10768.7
23538.3
10797.4
12740.9
26757.2
11522.5
15234.6
30478.6
12286.9
18191.7
34534.6
13189.7
21344.9
38692.0
14147.1
24544.9
82872.2
1472?.4
?8149.8
51.4
5.1
87.4
393.6
33.8
54.0
5.4
86.8
470.9
34.7
57.4
5.7
85.3
631.8
36.6
61.3
6,1
83.9
703.7
36,4
65.5
6.5
8?.5
952.7
38.0
69.3
6.9
80.9
1054.9
37.6
72.3
7.2
79.5
1404.3
39.2
74.5
7.5
78.2
9,6
10.1
10.8
11.3
12.2
12.7
13.5
14,0
14.4
23.0
56.2
7326.7
27015.0
14.7
25.3
57.3
7732.0
?8264.1
26.2
59,3
8200.4
30058.6
27.3
59.7
8724.9
31898.0
28.4
61.?
9312.3
33876,3
29.0
61.7
9960,3
36150.7
29.2
62.9
10699.4
38829.5
29.1
63.9
11502.1
41932.7
28.6
64.8
12377.9
45443.6
.28.1
65.3
13328.0
49343.6
1735.7
00.2
47020.1
15741.4
31278.6
76.0
7.6'
77.1
2126,7
41.3
51152.9
16255:9
34897.0
76,8
7.7
76.3
7428,8
42.1
DATE
--
VrRSION
MASSACHUSFTTS
PAGE -MODIFICATION
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
INCREASING PUBLIC EXPENDITURES RUN
5/ 9/71
3
-
-
R a TOTAL REVENUES
P x TOTAL POPULATION
T a PROPERTY TAX RATE
E = TOTAL EXPENDITUPFS
S = EDUCATION AS % OF EXPENDITURES
L a PROPERTY TAX AS t OF REVENUE.
A 2 STATE AID % FOR FDUCATION
X x PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
* a COINCIDENT POINTS
.7
to00
I
I
I
I
I
I
-
90
V
PeI\J~Tl.LR&s
I
I
I
E~ER cf~P.iTiV'
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
-
80
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
70
L LL
60 +
I ES-bEMTrAL PROP--ray
TAAES A3 A IPE RC.rNT
OF REVEJue
50
L
)T
EXPEtJ~NI'.*RES
40
PRCEWl-T 6F E:XPFPbliuRS
3D
2n
I
10
.-.. 4
-
-.-
-.-
-..-
-
-
-
-
--.
-.
-
-..
-
-
-
. -
--...
4-
-
-
-
.-
-
-
I.
I
0*
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2?
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
2
4
- 4,0 density multiplier function had performed this task in order to limit
population growth.
Precisely the same segments of the population are
affected by the rising taxes.
Thus, for this particular set of conditions,
the micro-structure of the population is unchanged.
MUNICIPAL INCOME TAX RUN
The purpose of this run was to investigate alternative forms of
revenue collection.
The method used was a four percent tax on all incomes.
(Note that in the listing of the model in APPENDIX E, the rate is two
percent.
But this rate is applied to a population that is twice the
size of the labor force.)
The affect was to equalize the tax burdens
across age groups, but at a higher rate.
In the BASIC MODEL RUN, the
younger residents of Arlmont had received a tax break. The income tax
is applied equally to everyone.
Thus it tends to equalize the tax load.
In reducing the amount
But the income tax is a tax on residents only.
of revenue that must be raised- through the property tax, it reduces the
tax load on commercial and industrial property.
slightly higher portion of
ell
taxesilevied.
Thus residents pay a
The model is not sensitive
to this shifted tax load and so other parts of the model's output is
unchanged.
REVERSED HIGHWAY MULTIPLIER RUN
In an early version of the model, the highway multiplier had a
positive slope.
After further research and analysis, the author discovered
that highway expenditures was inversely related'to density.
versions of the model contained this corrected multiplier.
Later
The purpose
of this run was to observe the model's behavior with a positively sloping
-41
-
TABLE 3
.COMeARLSQN OF TAX BURDENS, IN YEAR 5:
PROPERTY TAX ONLY AND COMBINATION OF THE PROPERTY TAX AND A MUNICIPAL
INCOME TAX
19 - 24 YRS
40 - 44 YRS
60 - 64 YRS
$6900
8490
9020
$13130
18680
20540
ANNUAL INCOME
PROPERTY VALUATION
PROPERTY TAXES
TAX RATE1
TAX PAID
TAX AS A %
INCOME
INCOME TAXES
TAX RATE 3
TAX PAID
$48.72 '35.3
460.
$635.
9.2% 6.7
4%
__--
$2670'
737.
TOTAL TAX PAID $635.
9.2% 10.7
TOTAL TAX AS A
% OF INCOME
48.7
910.
11.4
__
35.3
659.
8.2
4
48.7
1000.
11.7
35.3
709.
8.5
4
__
--
340.
--
361.
910.
11.4
999.
12.5
1000.
11.7
1070.
12.6
TAXES PAID ON ALL RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY,
AS A % OF TOTAL TOWN REVENUE
56.2% 40.7
TOTAL TAXES PAID BY RESIDENTS AS A %
OF TOTAL TOWN REVENUE
56.2% 57.6
Per thousand dollars assessed valuation.
2 Left-hand number is from the BASIC MODEL RUN and the right-hand
number
RUN.
TAX
is from the MUNICIPAL INCOME
3 Percent of total income.
DATE -VERSION
5/ 9/71
3
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
MUNICIPAL INCOME TAX RUN
5
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATION EXPENDITURES
PRUTFCTION SERVICES
HIGs4.AY EXPFNDITURES
AND SANITATION
REC;EATION AND PARKS
hOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUSLIC ADMINISTRATIrN
OTHFR EXPENDITURES
TOTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
HANOATED COSTS
DEBT SERVICE
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
AATrR
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER CHARGES
LOCAL INCCHE TAXES
TOTAL LOCAL REVEtUES
ORPOWIN(S
STATE GRANTS
FEDFRAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVENUES
NET SURPLuS OR DEFICIT
CUM SURPLUS DR DEFICIT
PROPERTY VALUATION
RESIDENTIAL
COMuFRCTAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
USED
UNUSED
COMMUNITY DFSCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DrNSITY
DEPrNDENCY RATIO
PUBLIr SERVICES / CAPITA
EDUCATION AS % OF EXPFND
PROTECTION AS % OF EXPND
STATE AID % FOn EDUCAT'N
PRUPERTY TAX AS Z OF REV
VALUATION PFR CAPITA
VALUATION PER PUPIL
10
8152.6
9207.9
2328.4
2725.7
1795,2
164?.0
1627.6
1402,6
550.0
995.4
953.8
4227.2
20237,5
3055.5
837,7
24130,7
13284,6
2688.9
505e . 3
21031.8
667.4
2157.7
287,5
24144,4
13.7
538.2
618.9
1192.0
1116.6
4986.9
23285.2
3405,6
909.7
27600.5
15
10696,7
3334.4
2037.2
2008.7
730.4
-1496.8
1365.9
6155.6
27825.5
3918.8
971,8
32716.1
15495.7
2972.5
5627.7
18975.7
74095,9
28659.4
654.8
2973.0
444.2
32731.4
631.
2540.1
352.8
77620.0
3314.7
6369.0
19.5
566.8
15.3
620.7
27871a,4
309152.4
56177.5
62013.3
46372.9
417538.5
37,1
349111.5
69287.7
52366.7
470765;9
40.3
41807.2
376699.1
35.3
18835.0
9307,6
9527,4
51.4
5.1
87.4
393.6
33.8
9.6
23.0
40.7
7326o7
27015.0
?0876,9
10108,2
10768,7
54.0
5.4
86.8
431,2
33,4
9,9
25.3
41,5
7732.0
28264,1
23538.3
10797.4
12740.9
57.4
5.7
85.3
484,7
32,7
10.2
26.2
43.0
8200.4
30058.6
?0
11834.2
3910.6
2184.2
2355.8
816.5
1794,4
1581 * 7
7232.6
31710.0
4270.7
1037.0
37017.7
21400.4
3716.3
7266,0
32382.8
720.1
3361.*2564.9
37029,1
11.3
564.3
397685.4
77805,0
59652.8
535143.2
40.0
26757.2
11522.5
15234.6
.61-3
6.1
- 83,9
517,0
32,0
10.6
27.3
42.9
8724.9
31898.0
25
30
13859.3
4919.6
2479,5
2963.6
959.9
2284.8
1919.9
8990.8
38377.4
4933,5
1105.8
44416,8
15078,2
5713,4
2633.2
3441.8
1045.8
2678.7
2165.3
1034?.5
43098.9
5326.1
1187.1
49612.1
26457.4
4176.3
8307,5
38941.3
804.5
3975,3
716.3
44437.3
29388.0
20.6
614.7
-9.9
559.5
454175, I
87271.2
68126.3
609572,6
43.4
17078.0
45
1 8611.7a
19993.3
7746.5
8570.3
3180,3
3414.1
5116.4
1404.2
4048.1
50
7119.6
1416,7
69508.5
39907.5
42508.9
44310.6
5492.8
11820.2
5881.9
13009.4
56310.5
6260.6
14199.7
61400.2
64770,9
038.0
5363.9
1269.0
A3781,4
961.?
5685.a
1458.2
69505.0
942.9
5891.2
1645.2
73250,2
.8
647,8
-1.8
646.4
-3.5
673.4
516184.5
580282.6
645?67.7
710267.5
97079.8
77427.7
690692.
106514.1
115385,5
96790. 2
123593.4
106540.1
940401.0
4612.9
9449.5
43450,5
87A.8',
438.9
891.9
49602.2
42.5
34534.6
13180.7
21344.9
44,4
9312.3
33876.3
40
63783.1
1?286.9
'18191.7
28.4
35
4
20849,3
9117.8
3573.0
5404.5
1476,7
4292.0
3297s4
16281.5
64292.2
7483.9
1463,0
73239.2
30478.6
65.5
6.5
82,5
586.3
31,2
11.1
1
PAGE --
MnDIFICATION
69,3
6.9
80.9
622.1
30.4
11.5
29.0
403
9969.3
36150.7
6818 . 0
2936,2
4107.2
1185.7
3217.7
25-30.2
12259.3
50132.4
6018.4
1273.2
57424.0
34793.9
5072.9
10626.1
50494.8
R99.7
4951.9
1078.4
57424,8
4666.6
1298.0
3671.8
13866.1
3111.5
15314.2
55875.2
60972.1
2834,1
6582.9
1325.0
-
11.0
704,6
775491.8
131241.8
116323,8
1023057.4
43,3
87042.4
773839,1
45,0
057443.3
45.5
38692,0
14147.1
24544.9
4287?2
147?2.4.
?A149,8
47020.1
15741.4
31278.6
51152.9
16255.9
34897.0
72.3
7.2
79.5
693.1
29.7
11,9
29.2
45.4
10699.4
38829.5
74.5
7.5
7.?
749.5
29.2
12.1
29.1
76.0
7.6
77.1
802.5
28.8
12.3
28.6
46.2
12377.9
45443.6
76.8
7.7
76.3
837,6
~28.5
12.4
28.1
45.9
13328.0
49343.6
46.0
1150?, 1
0193?.7
45.2
9
-'-~!
~flk.E
S
DATE --
VERSION
PAGE -MODIFICATION
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
5/ 9/71
3
INCOME
MUNICIPAL
-
T
z TOTAL REVENUES
x TOTAL FXPENDITUPES
S = EDUCATION AS T OF EXPENDITURES
A = STATE AID I FOR EDUCATION
= PUBLIC SERVICES PEP CAPITA
. : COINCIDENT POINTS
R
E
.P v TOTAL POPULATION
a PROPERTY TAX RATE
L a PROPERTY TAX AS T OF REVENUE
X
TAX RUN
%II-
----------
I
I
I
I
90*-
-
-----
--
-4+
** *
80*-
- -
- +.
---
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
*
-
+
-
-
+
I
-.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
-
-----
I
I
I.
I
-
-
-.
- - - - -+----+
- - - -------
4+
I
-...-..-...-..-...-..-...-..-...
+..-...
-1t ?UL 6 TIXC)N
70*-
-
604--
40o 4+
-4e
- - - I.
Is
errE
10
---
~
I
'PRczw~
1
&Wr-row
aFO~R
I
4---
. .I
I
0
- - +
--
2
4
6
8
10
12-
1-
16
18
202-2-2-2-
12
14
16
18
20
2?
------------------------------------------4
IV
0
24
26
28
30
2---
32
34
6
38
-0
36
38
40
----
42
-
44
46
- 4
50
48
2
4
DATE -VEeSIN
PASSACHUSETTS
5/12/71
3
INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
REVERSED HIGH4AY MULTIPLIER RUN
5
.10
15
20
25
PAGE
--
mnDIFICATION
30
35
40
1
4
45
50
EXPENDITURES
EDUCA.TION EXPENIflTURES
PROTECTIUN SERVICES
HIG-.AY EXPFNnI1URES
hATI% AMU SANITATIDN
HECkEATION AND PARKS
HOSPITALS
AND
rEALIH
rUbLIC AUMINISTRATION
OTMr. EXFENDITQRLS
TOTAL PUbLIC SERVICES
MAN%4TED CUSTS
DEbT SERH ICE
TOTAL EXPFEtDITLRES
8152.6
2328.4
1646, 1
1402.6
550.0
995.4
953.8
4227.2
20256. I
3055.5
837.7
24149.2
9207,9
2725.7
1853.6
1642.0
618.9
1192,0
1116.6
4936.9
73343.6
3405.6
909.7
27658.9
333.44
2161.6
2008,7
730..
1496.A
13t5.9
6155.6
27949.9
3918.8
971.8
-32840.5
11834.2
3910.6
2391.6
2355.8
816.5
1794.4
1581.7
7232.6
31917,5
4270,7
1037.0
37225.2
13A59. 3
4919.6
15078.2
5713.4
3073.3
17078.0
2530.2
12259.3
5070A.2
6018.4
1273.2
57999.9
64475,7
45951.3
51456.4
2678.7
2165.3
10342.5
43539.0
5326.1
1187.1
50052.2
35065.2
4176.3
39241. 5
3924?.2
4612.9
43855.1
5072.9
51024.1
3441 .8
1045.8
18611.7
7746.5
3872.8
4666.6
1298.0
3671.8
2834.1
13866.1
56567.7
6582,9
1325.0
6818.0
2806.4
2963.6
959,9
2284.8
1919.9
8990.8
3R704.2
4933,5
1105.8
44743.6
3512.1
4107,2
1185.7
3217.7
19993,3
8570.3
4223.4
5116.4
1404.2
4048.1
3111.5
15314.2
61781.4
7119.6
1416.7
70317.7
20849.3
9117.8
4463.1
5404.5
1476.7
4292.0
3297.4
16281.5
65182.3
7483.9
1463,0
74129.2
56262.6
5881.9
62144,5
961.2
5750.3
1458.2
70314,3
59329.1
6260.6
65589.8
942,9
5962.4
1645.2
74140.2
-3.5
673,4
11.0
.704.6
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USED CHARGES
TOTAL
LOCAL
REVENUES
BORPOINGS
STATF
GRANTS
FEOFmAL GRANTS
TOTAL 1EVFNUES
NET Sl!PPLU1S OR OEFICIT
COM S'"PLIJS
OR OEFICIT
PPUPLRTY VALUATIOYN
RFSI! ENTIAL
COM'ERCIAL
INOUSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RITE (PER THU4JSAND)
6ONDING CAPACITY
AVAILIALE
*USE 0
UNUSE-7
CONMUNITY UFSCRIPTION
TOTAL Pl'$LA 1l0N
GRUSS DFNSITY
UEFr\'ENCY RATI',
P'IiLlr SFRVICFS / CAPITA
EDUCATION AS % OF EXPFND
PROTFr TON1l AS I OF EXPND
STATE ifu 1 FOR E0UCAT'N
PRUPFWY TAX AS A UF REV
VALUATI11 FER CAPITA
VALUAT -IN PFR' P'TL
-
18359.9
268K.9
25458.9
3314.7
28773.6
654.8
2963.2
?87.5
21177.0
2972.5
?4149.5
-631,1
2545.0
.352.8
24162,9
?7678.4
32855.8
21048.7
667.4
2159,3
13.7
538.2
278714.4
56177.5
19.5
566.8
444.2
516184.5
54.1
609572.6
57.5
2353'.3
10797.4
12740.9
26757,2
11522,5
15234.6
57.4
5.4
5.7
65.3
406.9.
32.6
10.2
26.2
57.5
So.6
7732.0
2264,1
559.5
454175.1
87271.2
68126.3
54 . 0
-. 99
56000.6
397685.4
77805.0
59652.8
535143.2
53.9
51.4
5.1
87.4
394,')
33.8
25,3
50042.3
349111.5
?087A.9
10108.2
10768.7
9.6
899.7
4998.4
1078.4
20.6
614.7
18835.0
9
307.6
9527.4
23,0
56.2
7326.7
27015.0
876.8
4418.4
891.9
11.3
564,3
41807.2
376A99,1
48.7
86.8
804.5
4001.8
716,3
44764,2
15.3
620.7
309152.4
62013.3
46372.9
417535,5
5u.7
432.3
33.3
28857.1
3716.3
32573.4
720.1
3378.1
564.9
37236.5
692d7.7
52366.7
470765.9
.8200.4
3005 .6.
61.3
6.1
83.9
520,.4
31.8
10.5
27.3
57.6
8724.9
31898,0
-9.9
.8
647.8
8
6
5492.8
56947.2
838.0
5419.7
1269.0
64473.9
-1.8
646.4
690692.0
56.8
56Q? 2.
106514.1
87042.4
773839.1
59.4
857443.3
60.0
30478.6
12286.9
18191.7
3a534.6
131891.7
21344.9
38692.0
14147.1
24544.9
4287?.2
14722.4
28149.8
65.5
6.5
82,5
591.3
31.0
11.0
28.4
58.4
9312.3
33876.3
69.3
6.9
80.9
628.4
30.1
11.4
?9.0
58,6
9969.3
36150,7
72.3
7.2
79.5
701.1
29.4
11.8
29,2
59,4
10699.4
36829.5
97079.8
774?7.7
645267.7
115385.5
96790.2
74.5
7.5
78.2
758.8
?8.9
12.0
29.1
60.1
11502.1
4193?.7
710267.5
123593.4
106540.1
940401.0
59.8
775491.8
131241.8
116323,8
1023057.4
58.0
47020.1
15741.4
31278.6
51152.9~
16255.9
34897.0
76.0
7,6
77.1
813.2
28.4
12.2
28.6
60.4
12377.9
45443.6
76.8
7.7
76.3
849.2
28.1
12.3
28.1
60,7
13328.0
49343,6
-t
DATE
--
VEtSION
PAGE -MODIFICATION
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTF OF TECHNOLOGY
REVERSED HIGHWAY MULTIPLIER RUN
5/12/11
3
P=TOTAL
R = TOTAL REVENIUES
E = TOTAL FXPENPITURES
S=
FUCATION AS T OF FXPENDITURES
A = STATE AID % FnFt EDUCATION
X= PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
*
= COINCIDENT POINTS
100-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------T
L
POPULATION
TAX RATE
TAY AS %
=PROPERTY
=PROPERTY
OF RFVENUF
-----
a
.
4
.
.
a
----------------
I
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
4
a
a
a
a
I
.1
I
I
-4
-4
.
a
a
804
2
4
-
---------------
REITbEA&5f PP-U APE-RgT
60
4
6F
EEILL
A1
- ..
.
-------------
-
-
4
-
-
-
It
S-rf hTE
20iX
10
4
-
. . ..
-
t p a~
- tjbr
a
-
-
.
-
a~
..I-
C \TI
a\
4=
-------
a
at
-
--
-
- -
- - - - - - -
- - - - - -
aE
a,
's' 4
30.
-- - - -
-
Ihl'
. . .
.
-
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
I
I
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
?2 24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46 48 50
--a
-
46
As. the print outs show, the result is a one percent increase
multiplier.
in a budget of $73 million in year 50.
the tax rate.
This causes a s.igh-t increase in
It might have been larger, but the state picks up part of
the tab for highway expenditures.
The only other observable effects were
the decreases in the percentage share that other expenditure groups had
in the budget.
INCOMING INDUSTRY RUN
The model does not contain an explicit industrial sector.
a proxy in the form of industrial property values.
It uses
If this overall
value increases proportionately with respect to other land uses, the
model assumes that a new industry .mustahave entered Arlmont.
The new
industry, together with the people who entered with it, will demand
additional public services.
it can.
The model provides these services as best
The model adjusts rapidly to the new situation.
The main long
term effects are the lowered property tax7rates and the smaller percentage
of the total town revenue pr6ided by residential property.
The state
aid percentage for education drops immediately with the increased assessed
valuation.
A variation on this run might be to 'have exempted the new
industry from taxes for ten years but satisfied its demands for services.
This is the final alternate model that will be discussed in this
thesis.
A few more were attempted, but they either produced little new
information, or had errors in formulation.
thesis as APPENDIX D.
They are included in the
DATE -VERSION
MASSACHUSETTS
5/ 9/71
INSTITUTE OF TECHNLOGY
INCOMING INDUSTRY RUN
3
5
10
15
20
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATION EXPENDITURES
PROTECTION SERVICES
HIGH"AY EXPENDITURES
NATFR AND SANITATION
RECREATION AND PARKS
HOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUBLIC ADHINISTRATION
OTHER EXPENDITURES
TOTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
MANDATED COSTS
DEBT SERVICE
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
8152.6
2328.0
1627.6
1402.6
550.0
995.4
953,8
4227.2
20237.5
3055.5
837.7
24130.7.
23496.6
3424.5
996.0
27917.1
10786.3
3383.5
2065.3
2038.2
73607
1523.5
1386.0
62547
28174.0
3948.4
1040.3
33162.7
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER CHARGES
TOTAL LOCAL REVENUES
BORROWINGS
STATE GRANTS
FEDERAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVFNUES
16342.9
2688.9
21031.8
667.4
2157,7
287.5
24141,4
218.47.0
2989.0
24835.9
634.6
2109.0
357.0
27936.6
26225.6
2969402
3339.7
3749.6
29565. 3
33443.8
659.8
.
726.6
2501.7
2867.8
451.4
575.8
33178.1
37614.0
13.7
538.2
19.6
567.0
NET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
CUM SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
PROPERTY VALUATION
RESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
USED
UNUSED
COMMUNITY DFSCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DENSITY
DEPFNDENCY RATIO
PUBLIC SERVICES / CAPITA
EDUCATION AS % OF EXPEND
PROTECT7I1N AS
OF EXPND
O
STATE AID I FOR EDUCAT'N
PROPERTY TAX AS % OF REV
VALUATION PER CAPITA
VALUATION PER PUPIL
9259.6
.2754.9
1817.4
1659.6
622.8
1207.7
1128.5
5046.0
15.4
621.4
25
11954.2
14007.7
3990.8
5026. *
2216.2
2404.1
824.6
1834.4
1606.0
7370.6
32201.0
430.0
1092.5
37602.5
11,4
564.5
2516.6
3028.0
969.8
2338.3
1951.7
9173.8
39012.5
498b.9
1151.6
45144.4
35992.6
4216.4
40209.0
812.2
- 3413.5
731.0
45165.7
20.8
615.4
278714.4
56177.5
41807.2
310679.5
62356.9
351464.6
90097.1
376699.1
48.7
463133.5
47.2
10192407
523198.9
50.1
18835.0
9307.6
9527.4
23156.7
11066.5
12090.2
26159.9
11559.2
29784.7
12138.8
33960.0
12795.7
14600,8
17645.9
21164.3
51.4
5.1
87.4
393.6
33.8
5403
5.4
86.7
432.7
33.2
9.9
17.6
52.5
8529.1
31180.1
57.8
5.8
85.2
61.9
6.2
,83.9
520.3
-31.8
10.6
19.9
53.1
9625*8
35160.7
9.6
23,0
56.?
7326.7
27015.0
698U9.7
487.1
32.5
10.2
18.7
53.1
9045.7
33139.1
400924.3
78502.1
116266.0
595694.4
49.8
458?10.1
88108.2
132880.9
679199.2
53.0
66.1
6.6
82.4
590.3
31.0
11.1
21.0
53.8
10277,4
37350,9
PAGE -MnOIFICATION
30
15219.1
9821.2
2669.9
350608
1054.8
273?.9
2197.0
105?6.7
43728.5
5371.0
1225.5
50324,9
40089.3
4651.8
44741.2
884.2
3781.6
907.9
50315.0
-9.9
559.7
35
17200.2
6919.1
2973.2
4168.1
1193.5
3268.6
2559.5
12432.2
50714.4
6058,8
1305.6
58078.8
46717.9
5 106.9
51824.8
905.7
4255.4
1n93.7
58079.6
.8
648.7
40
18696.8
7826.8
3?16.0
4715.0
1303.7
3712.4
2857.2
10004.4
r6332.1
661403
1351.9
45
20039.1
8622.5
3447.3
5136.9
1407.6
4068.7
3126.9
15409.n
61257.8
7140.9
1439.0
64298.4
69837.7
52070.4
50
20859.9
9104.5
3604.8
5414.5
1477.9
4302.4
3305,2
16332.5
64441.7
7495.4
1481.0
73418.0
5519.0
56676.1
5899.5
97589.4
62575.6
842.0
4583.5
1281.8
64296.6
964.1
4827.1
69834.2
59598,9
6270.2
65869,1
944.4
4965.1
1650.5
73429.1
-1.8
647.3
.3.5
674.4
705.6
5?0301.0
97898.4
190887.3
769086.6
52.1
584063.3
107228.8
60A370.9
169378.4
860670.5
188027.6
38454,3
13616.2
24838.2
43033,5
14506.2
28527.3
69.9
7.0
80.9
625.9
30.2
11.6
21.7
53.9
11008.0
39882.2
72.8
7.3
79.4
696.5
29.6
11.9
21.9
54.6
11820.7
42873.8
54,3
1
4
1 15935.9
95P334.4
s.?
47616.7
15021.0
32595.7
74.9
7.5
78.1
752.1
29.1
12.2
21.6
5%.1
1?714.4
46341.7
1467.3
712537.9
123962.3
206636.0
1043136.?
54.3
52156.8
15988.4
~ 36168.5
76.P
7.6
77.1
803.9
28.7
12.3
21,1
55.4
13689.3
50263.1
11.6
776926.
131403.2
225308.6
1133678.0
52.6
56683.9
16459.3
40228.6
76.9
7.7
76.3
838.2
28.4
12.5
20.4
55,6
14746.5
54613.8
DATE -VERSION
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE
5/ 9/71
.3
INCOMING
P
T
L
X
90 +
I
--------------- 4
I
.1
I
I
--------------- 4
I
I
I
I
------------I
I
I
I
I
I
I
80 +
I
I
I
I
7O
50
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
-
2
--
MnOIFICATION
4
-----
+ -
PAGE
TECHNOLOGY
R = TOTAL REVENUES
* 1OTAL POPULATION
E a TOTAL EXPENDITURES
a PROPERTY TAX RATE
S a EDUCATION AS % OF EXPENDITURES
z PROPERTY TAX AS I OF REVENUE
A a STATE AID 1 FOR EDUCATION
a PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
*
COINCIDENT POINTS
100*
60
OF
INDUSTRY RUN
I
I
I
I
-
I
I
I
I
I
I
4---
--
4
--
4
I
I
4---
~JT~F~L
I
I
I
ra~~~JuL~
I
I
I
*
~t
P-7
40
I
I
I
I
I
I
304-4-i
20+
F~z
&ID.VNTACrE
FcR
10
2
P
. .I A
6
o
2
4
~
8I0 1
g~
4
1
8
2
36 3 40
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
4Ia
4
8 5
4
-
49
-
CONCLUSION
This thesis has presented an attempt to model an urban community using
non-rigorous relationships.
The model lacks the large number of informa-
tion linkages usually found in simulation models.
In some of the places
where they do exist, they produce fixed reactions to events, and then
Because the model was not based
only if thresholds have been reached.
on a specific town, it is not possible to validate this method by plugging
in the values of different variables for year X and then seeing if the
output corresponds with~ the reality of N-years hence.
Rather, one might
place aconfidence interval around specific variables and expect their
real world values to lie within the bounded region.
What is important
are the relative changes in the system variables and the causes of these
changes.
By this criteria, the model works; i.e., it produces reasonable
-output given the basic assumptions.
tive to new conditions.
But the model is remarkably insensi-
Nothing by itself seems to matter very much.
This result is partly due to the limitations of the model builder and
partly due to the nature of the beast.
Cities possess tremendous inertia.
Short of a catastrophe, they will continue down the same path for years.
The techniques employed in this model lie outside the mainstream of
modeling today.
complete.
table.
In light of this, the analysis presented herein is not
There are at least two areas where further work would beiprofi-
The most promising deals with aggregation.
was disaggregated into several age groups.
expenditures were not keyed to them.
specific expenditures.
employed in the model.
In the model, population
But for the most part, public
Nor did these age groups respond to
The other area is the improvement of the relationships
-
50
-
The most pressing problem faced b 1ocal governments today is revenue
ratsling.
Local governments suffer from their limited.tax bases.
Cities
and towns must compete with their neighbors both. with respect to the
services they offer and the taxes they levy.
If its tax base is: non-
existant, the town can not provice even the basic services its residents
require.
Only the state and federal governments can provide the revenue
that such towns need.
The model tends to ignore this problem because
Arimont is a reasonably well-off suburban bedroom community
rt contains
neither a mechanism for deciding when a community requires massive outside
financial support nor a mechanism to provide. it.
- 51 AP ENDIX A
AN ANALYSIS OF 40 CLTIES. AND TOWNS IN MASSACHUSETTS
In an attempt to measure the factors which influence the different
sectors of local government expenditures, the author used regression
analysis techniques.
The data base employed is presented in Table 4.
The following factors were measured simultaneously rather than individually-population, gross population density and equalized valuation per capita.
The last named was used as a proxy for community wealth.
(The regression
output can be found following Table 5. The observation order for the
lists of estimated values is identical with that in Table 4.)
The high values for the Student's-T statistic of the intercepts of
three of the four equations indicate that-there is some minimum level
of service that all governments must provide.
Wealth, as measured by
per-capita valuation, seems to be the single most important explanatory
variable.
The other two explanatory variables have varying effects,
depending on the expenditure examined.
It appears, however, that large
cities must spend large sums of money on services solely because of
their size.
The author used the coefficients estimated by the regressions to
predict government expenditures by the town of Arlington, Massachusetts.
The results are compared with the actual expenditures in Table 5.
TAZLE L
EXPENDITURES PROFILE OF 40 MASSACHUSETTS CITIES -AND TOWNS 1
I
1
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
CITY OR TOWN
aBOSTON
WORCESTER
SPRINGFIELD
NEo BEDFORD
FALL RIVER
QUINCY
LO4ELL
PITTSFIELD
BROOKLINE
EVERETT
SALEM
METHUEN
LEXINGTON
NOR.OOD
ATTLEBORO
CHELSEA
NORTHAMPTON
DANVERS
RANDOLPH
TH
ADAMS
I
I
a
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
POPULATIO N
I
(1965)
I
616326
180341
165520
100176
98198
87158
86535
56511
53608
434J0
40112
32466
31388
28978
28690
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
27098
27062
24764
1
a
21726
19605
19384
17127
15922
151p0
13b32
13809
11617
9707
7147
70a2
6b89
a
a
a
I
a
I
(PER
1.6
1
0.5
2.4
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
.I0.5
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.5
4.2
6.0
TOTAL LOCAL
I
EXPENDITURFS
PER CAPITA 2
EQUALIZED
VALUATION PER
I CAPITA (1969)
a-------------.
PROTECTION
PER
CAPITA
~
HTGHWAYS
PER CAPITA
EDUCATION
PER
CAPITA
78
119
562
3083
23
44
3255422
34
128
3468
41
336
25
105
18
88
42
3154
1
284
80
2546
43
I
275
14
4911
1'
425
51
19
131
22
125
a
3640
316
51
4955
41
I
22
367
147
467
68
1.
9290
31
129
30
8754
19.
127
a
379
45
5634
a
348
30
122
109
4251
a
251
34
28
266
1
7455
35
-17
491
405
13
1
6039
212
'37
-41
21
a
141
312
5193
68
15
a
3026
413
119
19
4989
I ~
308
155
34
I
5734
500
122
26
19
22
I
362
186
5017
35
3686
1
288
30
121
23
64
205
10
1
3818
32
6306
I
283
26
18
128
4710
32
a
16
290
160
P65
11924
1
321
20
22
68
33
)33
1
13230
512
8690
I
447
34
28
243
28
I
340
3443
386
-26
7417..
388
23
19
364
1
181
297
a
6?96
16
27
17
a
7100
386
213
24
294
22
163
3139
1
26
20
156
3062
a
25
279
297
I
11203
528
38
38
204
64
569
1
18848
120
14A77
57
467
258
1
36
I
9767
22
182
383
37
I
24
8992
162
318
25
3
134
1
3085
206
25
9
3957
264
1
176
22
194
15
12
I
2931
95
-----"------a...----------------I------------------I-------------- a--------------a
a
26
a
169
6262
363
36
70
1
a
a7
17
97
3670
1
1
20.6
7.8
2.3
3.0
22.3
1.2
2.8
3.4
1.5
1.5
0.4
0.9
I
I
-12.7
a
1
ACRE)
22.3
7.4
8.2
8.2
4.7?
8.3
10.1
2.2
a
a
a
I
HBRIDGE
I
DiTmOUTH
I
LUDLOw
I
SOMERSET
I.
FALMOUTH
LONGMEAUOw
I
AMESBURY
I
I AILBRAHAM
I GREAT RARRINGTON I
a
I WILLIAmSTOWN
I WINCHENDON
I
I ORANGE
6206
I
4463
I
I LINCOLN
I NANTUCKET
3714
I
I DOVER
I
3592
I MARION
I
3481
I WENHAM
3114
1945
I CLARKSRURG
I
1769
I BERKLEY
I
1706
I
I MILLVILLE
---------------------------48433
1 40 TOWN AVERAGE
I
101140
I STAND. DEVIATION I
I
I
I
I
I
I
DENSITY
I
BASED ON TABLES I AO!D II. APPENDIX I. 'STATF AID TO CITIES AND TOWNS IN MASSACHUSETTS'.
LEAGUE OF wOMEN VOTFRS OF MASSACHI'SFTTS. 1970.
2
ALL EXPENDITURES ARE FROM 1968 RUDGFTS; POPULATION FROM 1965 STATE CENSUS.
- 53 TABLE 5
ACTUAL AND ESTIMATED EXPENDITURES FOR ARLINGTON, MASS.
1965 Population
52,482
Area ---------------- 3517.5 acres
Valuation ----
$344,032,460.
Density --------------14.92 persons per acre
Valuation / Capita--$6555.25
CATAGORY
Total / Capita
ACTUAL
EXPENDITURE
ESTIMATED
,-EXPENDITURE
$500.48
405.67
Protection / Capita
43.98
51.18
Highways / Capita
29.02
22.31
.Education / Capita
147.78
138.17
DATE
JOB
PAGE
5/1 3/71
1
MlILTIVARIATE ANALYSIS UNIT
FAST RERFSSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
9 2500/B 3500/8 4500
ECONOMETRIC STATISTICAL SYSTEM
EQUATION I
EQUATION ID
1
I
DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS PUBLIC SERVICES PER
(P4)A
NUMBER OF VALID OBSERVATIONS a 40
REGRESSOR
COEFFICIENT.
C 1)
POPULATION
c 2)
POPULATION DENSITY
VALUATION PER CAPITA C 3)
INTERCEPT
.3661928E-03
3.322048
.1935028E-01
210.0396
STANDARD ERROR OF ESTIMATE a
Ic
36) ON
COEFFICIENT
2.810539
1.526558
6.672706
8.967018
STANDARD ERROR
OF,COEFFICIENT
.130?927E-03
2.176168
.2899915E-02
23.42357
63.90724
COEFFICIENTS OF MULTIPLE CORRELATION
0.7760
MULTIPLE R
0.6022*MULTIPLE R-SQ11ARE
0.7543
(CORRECTED)
R
0.5690
R-SQUARE (CORRECTED)
F-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF REGRESSION
18.1
3,
36) =
F(
DURBIN-RATSON STATISTIC = 1.6A
ESTIMATE OF AUlTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT x
0.1393
DECOMPOSITION OF VARIANCE OF THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE
SUM OF SQUARES
EXPLAINED
UNETPLAINEDL
TOTALS
6
DEGREFS
OF FREoOM
MEAN SOUARE
222589.0
147078.8
3
36
74196.33
4084,135
369617.9
39
9477.382
-------------.
PARTIAL
CORRELATION
0.4060
0.2346
0.7257
-4
DATE
JOB
PAGE
5/13/71
I
7
-55MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS UNIT
FAST REGRFSSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
R 2500/B 3500/8 4500
ECONOMETRIC STATISTICAL SYSTFM
EQUATION I
EQUATION In = I
LINEAR PEGPESSION
DEPENDENT VARIABLE IS
OBSERVATION
NUMBER
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-13
14
15
-16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
(
4) PUBLIC
SERVICES PER CAPITA
TRUF VALUE OF
ESTIMATF OF
RESIDUAL
C 4) PUBLIC SFRVICES PER CCP4) PURLIC SERVICES PER CAPI(TRIJE-EST)
562,000
422.000
336.000
284.000
275.000
425,000
316,000
367,000
467,000
379,000
348.000
251.000
491.000
405,000
312,000
413.000
308.000
500.000
362.000
288.000
205,000
283,000
290,000
321,000
512.000
447.000
386,000.
388,000
297.000
380.000
0
294.00
279,000
528.000
569,000
467,000
383,000
318,000
206,000
264,000
194,000
569,441
363,568
364.858
335,130
310.755
364,397
345,686
333.817
451,589
463.604
359.778
311,702
375.665
351.834
326,455
352.548
320.539
339.516
326.242
293,606
295,990
339.790
310.068
457.421
472,726
391.214
285.669
359,391
335,308
350,793
274,055
272,474
430.057
576,495
492,716
401,578
387.243
271.239
287,845
269.183
-7.44124
58.4315
-28.8588
-51.1303
-35.7553
60.6029
*29.6866
33.1827
15.4109
-84.6047
11. 7783
-60.7020
115.334
53,1659
-14.4556
60.4519
-12.5391
160.483
35,7578
-5.60637
-90.9901
*56.7908
-20.0686
*136.421
39.2738
55.7856
100,330
28,6087
-38.3082
29.2069
19,9440
6,52548
97.9427
-7,49558
-?5.7163
-18.5780
-69.2432
-65.P391
-23.8458
-75,1839
PERCENTAGF
RESIDUAL
(RESID/TRUFI
-1.3
13.8
-8.5
-18.0
-13.0
14.2
-9.3
9.0
3.2
-22.3
-3.
-24.3
23.4
13.1
-4.6
14.6
-4.0
32.0
9.8
-1.9
-44.3
-20.0
-6.9
-42.4
7.6
12.4
25.9
7.3
-12.8
7.6
6.7
2.3
18.5
-1.3
-5.
-4.8
-21.?
*31.6
*9.0
-38.7.
DEVIATION
RESIDUAL
(RFSID/STD ERR)
-0.11
0.91
-0.45
-0.80
-0.55
0.94
-0.46
0.51
0.24
-1.32
-0.18
-0.94
1.80
0.83
-0.22
0.94
-0.19
2.51
0.55
-0.08
-1.42
-0.88
-0.31
-2.13
0.61
0.87
1.56
0.44
-0.59
0.45
0.31
0.10
1v53
*0.11
-0.40
0.29
*1.08
1.02
-0.37
-1.17
DATE
JOB
PAGE
5/13/71
I
R 2500/B 3500/B 4500
ECONnMETRIC STATISTICAL SYSTEM
-516-
MilLTIVARIATE ANALYSIS UNIT
FAST RErRFSSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
EQUATION 2
EQUATION ID a I
DEPENDFNT VARIABLE IS PROTFCTION PER CAPIT ( 5)
NUMBER OF VALID OBSERVATIONS
a
40
COEFFICIENT
REGRESSOR
C 1)
POPULATION
C 2)
POPULATION DENSITY
VALUATION PER CAPITA C 3)
INTERCEPT
,5398905E-04
1,367088
*1858588E-02
15.76702
STANDARD ERROR OF FSTIMATE =
T(
36) ON
COEFFICIENT
2.263288
3.431299
3.500679
3.676639
STANDARD ERROR
OF COEFFICIENT
.2385425E-04
.3984173
.5309223E-03
4.288434
11.70026
COEFFICIFNTS OF MULTIPLE CORRELATION
0.7414
MULTIPLE P
0.5496
MULTIPLE R-SQUARE
0.7156
(CORRECTED)
R
0.5121
R-SQUARE (CORRECTED)
F-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF REGRESSION
14.6
36) =
3.
F(
DURBIN-hATSDN STATISTIC a 2.04
ESTIMATE OF AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT x -0.0219
DECOMPOSITION
OF
VARIANCE OF THE DEPENDENT VARIABLE
SUM OF SQUARES
EXPLAINED
UNEXPLAINEDL
TOTALS
8
DEGREES
OF FREEDOM
MEAN SQUARE
6015.510
4928.264
3
36
2005.170
136.8962
10943.77
39
280.6096
PARTIAL
CORRELATION
0.3369
0.4768
0.4842
E
I
OTE
JOB
PAGE
5/13/71
1
A 2500/B 3500/8 4500
ECONOMETPIC STATISTICAL SYSTEM
-57-
9
MILTIVARIATE ANALYSIS IINIT
FAST REGRFSSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
EQUATION 2
EQUIATIPN 10 a 1
LINEAR REGRESSION
DEPENDrNT VARIABLE IS C 5) PROTECTION PER CAPITA
OBSERVATION
NUMBER
ESTIMATE OF
TRUF VALUE OF
C 5) PROTECTInN PER CAPITA( 5) PROTECTION PER CAPITA
RESIDUAL
(TRuE-EST)
PERCENTAGF
RESIDUAL
(RESID/TRUr)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
18
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
is
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
. 32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
78.0000
44.0000
41.0000
42,0000
43.0000
51.0000
51.0000
41.0000
68.0000
30. 0000
45.0000
34.0000
35.0000
37,0000
41,0000
68.0000
34.0000
26,0000
35,0000
30.0000
32.0000
18.0000
3?.0000
22,0000
68,0000
34,0000
2A,0000
23,0000
16.0000
17.0000
2.6000
20.0000
38.0000
64,0000
36.0000
.37.0000
25,0000
3.00000
9.00000
15,0000
85,2465
41,6374
42,3020
38.3005
32,1760
40.8828
40,9989
30.9928
53.2770
62.4794
39.1146
28,5159
35.3810
34,4508
29.1969
53.3191
28,1704
31.6509
30,8594
25.7405
25.9586
29,0123
26.6364
43.3146
41.7672
35,9411
24.7476
31,0108
28.1907
29,6657
22.7S9.3
22.1710
37,4876
51.1577
43.3751
34.6283
33.4997
21,9326
23.4592
22. 0500
-7,24650
2.36257
*1,30203
3,69944
10,239
10.1171
10.0010
10.0071
14.7229
-32.4794
5.8537
5.48406
*.391025
2.54917
11.8030
14.6808
5,82955
-5.65094
4.14051
4.25943
6o04134
-11.0123
5.36354
-21.3146
26.2327
-1.94112
3.25231
-8.01086
-12.1907
-12.6657
-.2993A0
-2. 17100
.5123%9
12.4422
-7.37516
2.37164
-8.49971
-18.93?6
-14*4592
-7.05004
-9.2
5.3
-3.1
8.8
25.1
19.8
19.
24o4
21.6
-108.2
13.0
16.1
-1.0
6.8
28,7
21.5
17.1
-21.7
11,8
14.1
18.8
-611
16.7
-96.8
38.5
-5#7
11.6
-34.8
-76.1
-74.5
-1.3
-10.8
1.3
20.0
-20.4
6.4
-33.9
-631.0
-160.6
-47.0
DEVIATION
RESIDUAL
(RFSID/STO ERR)
-0.61
0.20
-0.11
0.31
0.92
0.86
0.85
0.85
1.25
-2.77
0.50
0.46
-0.03
0.21
1.00
1.25
0.49
-0.48
0.35
0.36
0.51
-0.94
0.45
-1.82
2.24
-0.16
0.27
-0.68
-1.04
'
-1.08
*0.02
-0.18
0.04
1.09
-0.63
0.20
-0.72
-1.61
-1.23
*0.60
- DATE
JOB
PAGE
5/13/7.1
10
1
MULTIVARIATE ANALYS-IS. UNIT
FAST REGRFSSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
B 2500/B 3500/8 4500
ECONOMETRIC STATISTICAL SYSTEM
EQUATION 3
EQUATION ID =
DEPENDFNT VARIABLE IS HIGHWAYS PER CAPITA
( 6)
NUMBER OF VALID OBSERVATIONS a 40
COEFFICIENT
REGRESSOR
( 1)
POPULATION
( 2)
POPULATION DENSITY
VALUATIDN PER CAPITA ( 3)
INTERCEPT
.3715477E-04
.4403793
.3435034E-02
4.410758-
STANDARD ERROR OF ESTIMATE =
T(
36) ON
COEFFICIENT
1.465542
-1.040011
6.087648
.9677517
STANDARD ERROR
OF COFFFICIENT
.25352?3E-04
.4234368
*56426?8E-03
4.557737
12.43501
COEFFICIENTS OF MULTIPLE CORRELATION
0.7225
MULTIPLE R
0.5221
MULTIPLE R-SQIJARE
-R
(CORRECTED)
0,6944
0.4823
R-SOUARE (CORRECTED)
F-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF REGRESSION
13.1
36) =
FC
3.
DUPRIN OATSON STATISTIC a 1.84
ESTIMATE OF AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT =
0,0786
DECOMPOSITION OF VARIANCE OF THE DEPENnENT VARIABLE
SUM OF SQUARES
EXPLAINED
UNEXPLAINFDS
TOTALS
DEGREFS
OF FREEDOM
ME-AN SQUARE
6082.436
5566,663
3
36
2027.478
154.6295
11649.10
39
298,6943
PARTIAt,
CORRELATION
0.2257
-0.16p2
0.6934
I"
- aATE
JOB
5/13/71
1
PAGE
-
R 2500/B 3500/R 4500
ECONOMETRIC STATISTICAL
-51--
It
HIILTIVARIATE ANALYSIS UNIT
FAST REGRrSSInN ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
SYSTEM
EQUATION 3
EQUATInN 10 x I
LINEAR REGPESSION
,DEPENOFNT VARIABLE IS C 6) HIGHWAYS PER CAPITA
OBSERVATION
NUMBER
1
2
3
4
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
TRUF VALUE OF
6) HIGHWAYS PER CAPITA
23.0000
34,0000
25. 0000
18,0000
140.0000
19,0000
22,0000
22,0000
31,0000
19,0000
30,0000
28,0000
17.0000
13,0000
21,0000
15,0000
19.0000
19.0000
22,0000
23,0000
10,0000
26.0000
16,0000
20.0000
33,0000
28,0000
26,0000
19,0000
27,0000
24.0000
26,0000
25,0000
38.0000
120,000
57.0000
22,0000
24,0000
25,0000
22,0000
12,0000
ESTIMATE OF
6) HIGHWAYS PER CAPITA
28,0827
19,0436
18,8799
15,3404
14.7506
20,8825
15.6863
22,5748
32,7238
27.0415
21,8047
19.2206
29,8764
2463328
22.5985
5.99852
22.0138
23,7748
20.9715
17,1463
17,5841
26,5143
20,7786
44.4615
50.1569
33.7184
16.0405
29.9493
26.1963
28,9582
15.3352
15.0358
42.8482
69,392
54. 1082
37.9236
35.1383
14,9741
17.9910
14.3020
RESIDUAL
(TRIJE-EST)
-5.08279
14.9563
6.1?001
2.65950
-. 750677
-1,88253
6.31361
-. 574875
-1.7?386
-8.04150
8,19523
8,77932
-12.8764
-11.33?8
-1.59852
9,00147
-3,01387
-4.77485
1.02849
5.A5360
-7.58419
-. 514346
"4.77866
-24.4615
-17.1569
-5,71845
9.95941
-10.9493
.803609
-4,95826
10.6647
9.9A412
-4,848?5
50.7607
2.89179
-15.9236
-11.1383
10.0258
4,00898
*2.30208
PERCENTAGF
RESIDUAL
(RESI0/TRUF)
nEVIATION
RESIDUAL
(RESID/STO ERR)
-22.0
43.9
2404
14,7
-5.3
-9,9
28.6
-2s6
-5.5
-42.3
27.3
31.S
-75,7
-87.1
-7.6
60.0
-15.8
-25.1
4.6
25.4
-75.8
-1.9
-29.8.
-122.3
-51.9
-20.4
38.3
-57.6
2.9
-20.6
41.0
39.8
-12.7
42, §
5.0-72.3
-46.4
40.1
18.2
-19,1
-0.40
1.20
0.49
0,21
-0.06
-0.15
0.50
-0.04
- 0.13
-0,64
0.65
0.70
-1.03
e0091
-0.12
0.72
-0.24
*0.38
0.08
0.47
-0.60
-0.04
*0,38
-1,96
-1.37
-0.45
0.80
-0.88
0.06
-0,39
0,85
0,80
-0.38
4.08
0.23
-1.28
-0.89
0.80
0,32
-0.18
ATE
i'R
PAGE
5/13/71
12
I1
Mt TIVARIATE ANALYSIS UNIT
FAST RECRESSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
2500/8 3500/9 4500
rCOnmETRIC STATISTICAL SYSTEM
-QUATION 4
FQUATIrN in =
1
DEPENDENT VA-RIABLE IS EDUCATION PER CAPITA C 7)
NUMBER OF VALID OBSERVATIONS a 40
COEFFICIENT
REGRESSOR
POPULATION
POPULATION DENSITY
VALUATION
PER CAPITA
C 1)
C 2)
C 3)
INTERCEPT
.6477615E-05
-3.104416
.8636370E-02
127.5385 -
STANDARD ERROR OF FSTIMATE a
36)
TC
ON
STANOARD ERROR
COEFFICIENT
OF COFFFICIENT
.5328568E-01
-1.528984
3.191989
5,835847
.1215638E-03
2.030378
.2705638F-02
21.85433
59.62584
COEFFICIFNTS OF MULTIPLE CORRELATION
0.5680
MULTIPLE R
0.3226
MULTIPLE R-SQUARE
0,5159
(CORRECTED)
R
0.2662
R-SQUARE (CORRECTED)
F-TEST FOR SIGNIFICANCE OF REGRESSION
5-.7
36) a
FC 3,
1.25
DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC a
ESTIMATE OF AIITDCORRELATION COEFFICIENT
DECOMPOSITION
nF
a
0.3634
VARIANCE OF THE DEPENDENT VARIARLE
SUM OF SQUARES
EXPLAINED
UNEXPLAINED
TOTALS
60968.79
127988.7
-- . 88 --.--188957.5
DEGREES
OF FREEDOM
3
-36
*^*-*-39
MEAN SQUARE
20322.93
3555.241
4845.064
PARTIAL
CORRELATION
0.0084
-0. 2349
0.4505
DATE
'JOR
PAGE
5/1 3/71
1
R 2500/B 3500/B 4500
ECONOMETRIC STATISTICAL SYSTEM
13
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS UNIT
rAST REGRFSSION ANALYSIS SUBSYSTEM
-6 1-
EQUATION 4
EQUATION ID a I
LINEAR REGRESSION
DEPENDFNT VARIABLE IS C 7) E DUCATION PFR CAPITA
OBSERVATION
NUMBER
ESTIMATE OF
TRUF VALUF OF
C 7) EDUCATION PER CAPITA ( 7) EDUCATION PER CAPITA
119.000
128.000
105.000
88.0000
80;0000
131.000
1?5.000
147.000
1?9.000
1?7.000
122.000
109.000
266.000
212.000
141 .000
119.000
155.000
122,000
186.000
121.000
64,0000
128.000
160.000
265.000
233,000
243,000
340,000
364.000
181. 000
213.000
163.000
156,000
297.000
204,000
258.000
182,000
162,000
134,000
176,000
95.0000
88.9516
133.917
133.233
129,855
135.683
144,890
128.212
163,961
168.715
139.612
15?.136
157.428
182,899
166.495
167.516
84.6677
167.002
168,388
160.574
154.836
155,979
180.744
165.473
220. 242
240.381
195.235
152.913
189.539
181.200
188.173
153.932
153.159
22?.829
289,973
251.433
210.734
203.27?
153,450
161.174
151.172
RESIDUAL
(TRUE-EST)
30.0483
-5.91790
-28.2330
-41.8557
-55.6838
-13.8905
-3.21206
-16.9610
-39.7157
-12.6122
-30.1364
-48.4282
83.1006
45.5049
-26.5164
34.3322
-12.0029
-46.3886
25.4259
-33.8365
*91.9794
-52.7448
-5.47313
44.7574
-7.38 127
47.7645
187.086
174.460
-.200546
24.8268
9.06778
2.84059
74.1702
-85.9735
6.56662
-28.7344
-41.2774
-19.4500
14.8255
-56.1725
PERCENTAGr
RESIDUAL
(RESID/TRUF)
25.2
-4.6
-26.8
-47.5
-69.6
-10.6
-2.5
-11.5
-30.7
-9,9
-24.7
-4494
31.2
21.4
-18.8
28.8
7.7
-38.0
13.6
-27.9
-143..7
nEVIATION
RESIDUAL
(RrSID/STD ERR)
0.50
-0.09
-0.47
-0.70
-0.93
-0.23
-0.05
-0.28
-0.66
-0.21
-0.50
-0.81
1.39
0.76
-0.44
-
0.57
-0.20
-0.77
0.42
-0.56
-1.54
-0.88
-0.09
0.75
-0.12
0.80
3.13
*41.2
-3.4
16.8
19.6
55.0
47.9
-0.1
11.6
5.5
1.8
24.9
-42.1
2.5
-15.7
-25.4
-14.5
8.4
-59.1
-
2.92
-0.00
0.41
0.15
0.04
1.24
-1.44
0.11
-0.48
-0.69
-0.32
0.24
-0.94
- 62 APVENDIX B
MULTIPLIER FUNCTIONS
The following pages depict the multiplier functions used in the
BASIC MODEL RUN.
(The declining birth rate multiplier is not included.)
The horizontal tails on either end of each multiplier lie beyond the
range of abscissa vAlues used in the model.
They are not assumptions
about the shape of these functions.
In the REVERSED HIGHWAY MULTIPLIER RUN, the same ordinate values
as the ones depicted here were used, but in reverse order.
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66APPENDIX C
RUNNING T[E MODEL
The model described in this thesis was written in FORTRAN-LV as,
implemented on the Burrough's B-3500 computer.
This is a variable-length
word machine which permits the user to select his own computational precision.
Integer arithmetic was performed at 7-place precision and floating point
arithmetic at 12-place (mantissa length).
the B-3500 is on program size.
The major restriction on using
In other implementations of the model, the
user may be able to store all data in core, rather than saving certain
results on disk for later access.
The program can be converted to other computers with the following
modifications:
1.)
SUBROUTINE ALPACK is an assembly language module which is brought
into the program at load time.
It may be dispensed with if FORMAT statement
numbers 911 and 912 in SUBROUTINE PLOTX are changed from "...12A8, A5..."
to "...lOlAl...".
2.)
SUBROUTINE UNIFRM is a random number generator which produces a
uniform distribution of numbers between 0.0 and 1.0.
may be substituted for it.
Any similar routine
-
67
-
APPENDIX D
OTHER MODEL RUNS
The following print-outs are from other variations on the basic
model which was discussed in the ma-in body of this thesis.
on each page indicate the subject of the particular run.
The titles
(N.B.: The
DEPARTING INDUSTRY RUN has several errors in its formulation.)
DATE -VERSION
3
PAGE
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TFCHNnLOGY
LFNGTHENFn DEBT AMORTIZATION PERIOD RON
5/ 9/71
1
--
MnDIFICATION
4
- (.,e10
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATION EXPENITURES
PROTECTION SERVICES
HIGHWAY EXPENDITURES
hATER ANU SANITATION
RECREATIOlN Atin PARKS
HOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUBLIC AUmINISTRATION
OTAER EXPENDITURES
TD0AL PUbLIC SERVICES
MANDATED COSTS
DEBT SERvICE
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
995.4
953.8
4227.2
2C237.5
3055.5
723.8
24016.8
1192.0
1116.6
4986.9
?3285.2
3405.6
831.3
?7522.1
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER CHARGES
TOTAL LOCAL REVENUES
BORPOh INGS
STATE GRANTS
FEDFRAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVFNUES
18229.0
2688.9
20917,9
667.4
2157.7
287.5
24030.5
21045.0
2972.5
P4017.5
631 *
2540.1
352,8
13.7
538.2
NET SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
CUM SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
PROPERTY VALUATION
- RESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
USED
UNUSED
COMMUNITY DESCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DENSITY
DEPENDENCY RATIO
PUBLIC SERVICES / CAPITA
EXPEND
EDUCATION AS %OF
PROTECTION AS I OF EXPNO
STATE AID I FOR EDUCAT'N
PROPERTY TAX AS I UF REV
VALUATION PER CAPITA
VALUATION PER PUPIL
8152.6
2328.4
1627,6
1402,6
550.0
9207.9
2725.7
1795.2
1642,0
618.9
15
10696.7
3334.4
2037.2
2008.7
730,4
1496.8
1365.9
6155.6
27825,5
3918.8
927.3
32671.6
20
11834.2
3910.6
2184.2
2355.8
816.5
1794,4
1581.7
7232.6
31710.0
4270,7
1022.8
37003,5
25
30
13859,3
4919.A
2479,5
?963.6
959.9
15078,2
5713.4
2633,2
3441.8
2284. 8
2678.7
2165.3
10342.5
43098.9
5326,1
1223.1
1919.9
8990.8
38377,4
4933,5
1118,6
44429,6
35
40
18611.7
7746.5
3180.3
4666.6
19993.3
8570.3
3414.1
20849.1
9117.5
5116.4
5404.5
49648.
63867.9
1519.8
69611.5
45479,9
S0902.4
55621.3
549?.8
5881.9
1045.8
129A.0
3-611 *8
1404.?
4048.1
2834,1
3111.5
13866.1
15314.?
60972.1
55875.2
6587.9
1409.8
34777.7
4176.3
38873.6
38954,1
804.5
43486.5
876,8
5072.9
50552,8
899.7
4387.9
4951.9
444,2
3?686.9
3975.3
716,3
44450.1
19.5
566,8
15.3
620.7
11.3
564,3
20.6
614.7
278714.4
56177,5
41807.2
376699.1
48.4
309152.4
62013.3
46372.9
417538,5
50.4
349111.5
397685,4
77805.0
59652.8
535143s2
53.5
454175.1
87271.2
68126,3
609572.6
57,1
18835.0
9869,6
8965.4
20876.9
11336.2
9540,7
23538.3
12644.7
10893.6
26757.2
13946,9
12810.3
30478.6
15254.1
15224.5
34534.6
16678,1
17856,5
38692,0
18152.1
20539.9
4287?.2
57.4
5.7
85.3
484.7
32.7
10.2
26.2
57.4
8200.4
30058.6
61.3
6.1
83.9
517.0
32.0
10,6
27.3
57.5
8724.9
31898.0
65.5
6.5
82.5
586.3
31.2
11,1
28.4
58.3
9312.3
33876,3
69.3
6.9
80.9
622.1
30.4
11.5
29.0
58.5
9969.3
36150,7
72,3
7.2
79.5
693.1
29.7
11,9
29.2
59.3
10699.4
38829,5
74.5
7.5
78.2
749.5
29.1
12.1
29.1
51.4
5.1
87.4
393.6
33.9
9.7
23.0
56,1
7326.7
27015.0
77541.6
54.0
5.4
86.8
431.2
33.5
9.9
25.3
56.6
7732.0
28264.1
3314 *
28614.9
654.8
2973.0
69267.7
52366.7
470765,9
53.7
50
17078.0
6818,0
2936.2
41o7 .2
1185,7
3217.7
2530,2
12259.3
50132,4
6018*4
1331.2
57481.9
28652.2
3716.3
32368.5
720.1
3361.2
564.9
37014.8
25300.2
45
4612.9
891.9
49638,2
-9,9
559.5
516184.5
97079.8
77427,7
690692.0
56,3
1078.4
57482.7
56395.2
838.0
5363,9
1269.0
63866.1
7119.6
61503.2
961.2
5685.4
1458.2)
69608.0
.8
647.8
*18
646.4
-3.5
673.4
580782.6
106514,1
87042.4
645267.7
115385,5
96790.2
8S7443.3
710267.5
773839.1
58.8
59,4
192?4.0
73648.1
60.0
11502.1
41932.7
123593.4
106540.1
940401.0
59.1
3573.1
1476.7
-429?.1
3297.4
1678 1.
64292.7
7483.9
I9 1 .7
73367.8
58638.9
6260.i
64899.
94?.9
9891.
1645.?
73378,.
11.0
704,6
775491.A
131241.A
116323.8
1023057.4
57.3
47020.1
20723.9
26296.2
5115?.9
21704.5
29448.d
76.0
7.6
77.1
80?,5
28.7
12.3
28.6
60.4
76.8
7.7
76,3
837.'
28.4
12,4
28.1
60.6
1?377.9
13328.
45443.6
49343,6
DATE -VERSInN
5/ 9/71
3
-
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNDLOGY
LFNGTHENEO DEBI AMORTIZATION PERIOD RUN
61-
PAGE
--
MonIFICATION
2
4
TOTAL POPULATION
L=
X
=
R a TOTAL REVENUES
E = TOTAL EXPENDITURES
S x EDUCATION AS i OF EXPENDITURES
PUbLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
A = STATE AID % FOR EDUCATION.
*
COINCIDENT PDINTS
PROPERTY TAX
PROPERTY TAX
RATE
AS % OF REVENUE
* -- - - - - -
100 + - -
*
- - -A-
-
-
-
+ -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
*
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
*
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
I.
90
-
-
+
*
-
-
-
- -
+
-
-- -4
--
4+-
4
X X
X
80 + -
-
-
-
-
-
+
X X
-
-
-
--
-
-
-
-
P
P P P
P P
60
-
+ -
IL L L L L L L L L L L *
~X
-
40 + -
I
P P P
.
I T T
T T -I
XI
X
-
-*E
X
IiSX
30 + -
X 5
4*
*
S S, S S S S S S S S S
-
P P P P P PP P
S* 4*
**A
I
*
-
X
-
3
S
- - - -
--
+-
*
-
4
I
4
X
--
X
X
- - - - - - -
L L to
T T
L L L L L
T* T T'T T.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- +
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
5*4
*
5
*SS*S
e*S S S S S S s S S S S
'I
S S S *
-4+
*
A
A A A A A A A A A 'A A I
A A A A A A A A A
I
*44
4
4***
I
A
4*
20 + - -
A
-
P
*I
*
-
+
X
IX
*
XX X X
P P P
- - -- X X - - + -.
L L * * * *
P P +
L L L L L L L ****L
T T
L L L *T *
I * *
T T T T
*
I
*
T T T T T T * X
I
*
x X
-4+
X X X
e * * I
-4
X
*
I
*
I
R
5
-
I
P P P P P
50 + P P P - - T T T
I
T T T T
I T
I.
X
P
I
I
I
P P
P
-
I
P P *4*
P P P
70 + -
X X-
X
-4
A
I IA A
-- -- -
- 5+
10 + - -
0
2
-4+
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
-
--
5/ 9/71
IN
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNnLOGY
ENLARGFD INDUSTRIAL TAX BASE RUN
3
-70*5
-rNDITURES
EDUrATION EXPENDITURES
PROTECTION SERVICES
10
15
20
25
8152.6
2328.4
1627.6
1402.6
550.0
995.4
953.8
4?27.2
20237.5
3055.5
837.7
24130.7
9207.9
2725.7
1795.2
1642.0
618.9
1192.0
1116,6
4986,9
?32A5.2
3405.6
909.7
27600.5
10696.7
3334.4
2037*2
2008.7
730.4
1496,8
1365*9
6155.6
27825.5
3918,8
971.8
32716.1
11834,2
3910.6
2184.2
2355.8
816.5
1794.4
1581.7
7232.6
31710.0
4270.7
1037.0
37017.7
2479.5
2963.6
959.9
2284.8
1919,9
8990.8
38377.4
4933.5
1105.8
44416,8
18633.5
2688.9
21322.3
1867.2
287.5
24144.4
21433.9
2972.5
?4406.4
631.1
2229.6
352.8
27620.0
25695.1
3314.7
29009.8
654.8
2622.6
444.2
32731.4
29039.5
3716.3
32755.8
720.1
2988,2
564.9
37029,1
35192.0
4176.3
39368.4
804.5
3548,1
716.3
44437.3
13.7
538.2
19.5
566,8
15.3
620.7
11.3
564,3
20.6
614.7
278714.4
56177.5
69678.6
404570.5
46. 1
309152.4
62013.3
77288,1
448453.8
47.8
349111.5
69287,7
87277.9
505677.1
50.8
397685.4
77805.0
99421.4
574911,8
50.5
454175.1
87271.2
4VAILABLE
ED.
20228.5
9307.6
iJSED-
1-0920.9
P2422.7
10108.2
12314,5
25283.9
10797,4
14486,5
28745.6
11522.5
17223,1
61.3
6,1
83.9
517.0
32.0
10.6
21.9
54.2
9373.2
34268,5
HIGHWAY EXPENDITURES
AATER
AND SANITATION
RECREATION AND PARKS
HOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
(THFR EXPENDITURES
TnTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
MANDATED COSTS
DERT SERVICE
ilTAL EXPENDITURES
13859.3
4919.6
PAGE -MnDIFICATION
30
15078.2
5713.4
2633.2
3441.8
1045.8
2678,7
2165.3
10342.5
43098.9
5326.1
1187.1
49612.1
35
40
1
4
45
50
17078.0
6818.0
2936.2
4107,2
1185.7
3217.7
2530.2
12259.3
50132.4
6018.4
1273.2
57424,0
18611.7
7746,5
318n.3
4666.6
1298.0
3671.8
?834.1
13866.1
55875.2
656?.9
1325.0
63783,1
19993.3
8570.3
3414.1
5116.4
1404,2
4048,1
3111.5
15314.2
60972.1
7119.6
1416.7
69508.5
20849,3
9117.8
3573.0
5404.5
1476,7
4292,0
3297.4
16281.5
64292.2
7483.9
1463,.
73239.2
45936,9
5138,6
5492.8
838.0
*799.0
1269.0
63781.4
56128,1
5881.9
62010.0
961.2
5075.6
1458.2
69505.0
59159.8
6260,6
65420,4
942.9
5241.7
1645.2
73250,2
-1.8
646.4
-3.5
673.4
11.0
704.6
VFINUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER CHARGES
TnTAL LOCAL REVENUES
bORROWINGS
STATE GRANTS
FEDFRAL GRANTS
TITAL REVENUES
. T SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
DEFICIT
COM SURPLUS OR
1ERTY VALUATION
4ESIDENTIAL
COMMERCIAL
INWISTRIAL
1AL PROPERTY VALUATION
'!A RATE (PER THOUSAND)
)ING
667.4
39290.6
4612.9
43903.5
876.8
3929.9891.9
49602.2
-9.9
559.5
5072,9
51069.8
899.7
4437.0
1078.4
57424.8
.8
647,8
56875.4
516184.5
97079.8
129046.
742310.4
52.9
580282.6
106514.1
145070,7
831867.4
55.2
32749.5
12286.9
,20462,6
37115.5
13189.7
73925.8
41593.4
14147.1
27446.3
a6098.5
14722,4
31376.1.
50571.4
15741.4
.34830.0
55030.3
16255.9
38774.5
65.5
6.5
82.5
586.3
31.2
11.1
23,0
54.9
10006,1
36400.4
* 69.3
6.9
72.3
7.2
79.5
693.1
29.7
11.9
23.9
55. A
11501.7
41741.3
74.5
7.5
78.2
749.5
29.2
12.1
23.7
56,4
76.0
7,6
77.1
802.5
28.8
12.3
23,3
56.7
13312.8
48875.9
76.8
7.,7
76,3
837,6
28.5
12.4
22.6
56.9
14338.3
53083.9
113543.8
654990.1
53.7
645267.7
710267.5
115385.5
123593,4
161316.9
177566.9
921970.1 1011427.6
55.7
55.5
775491.8
131241.8
193873.0
1100606.6
53.8
CAPACITY
UNITY DESCRIPTION
TnTAL POPIOATION
GROSS
DENSITY
DEPFNDENCY
RATIO
-U6LIC
SERVICES / CAPITA
t'lUCATION AS % OF EXPFND
R'tTECTION
AS
%
OF EXPND
NTATE AID I FOR EDUCAT'N
'UPERTY TAX AS I OF REV
vALUATION
PER CAPITA
-ALUATION PER PUPIL
.51.4
5.1
87.4
393.6
33.8
9,6
17.4
53.21
7868.8
29013.8
54.0
5,4
86.8
431.2
33.4
9,9
19.7
53.5
8304.5
30356.8
57.4
5.7
85.3
484,7
32.7
10.2
20,8
54.2
88u8.6
322b7.7
80.9
622.1
30.4
11.5
23.7
55.1
10714.4
38R52.4
1?367.7
45088,3
DATE --
5/ 9/,1)
:3
vERSION
PAGE -MODIFICATION
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
ENLARGED INDUSTRIAL TAX BASE RUN
71*-
-
P
T
L
x
= TOTAL POPULATION
= PROPERTY TAX RATE
= PROPFRTY TAX AS % OF RFVEN
= PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
100 + - - - - - -
+-.
" TOTAL REVENUES
E " TOTAL EXPENDITURES
UE
S = EDUCATION AS % OF EXPENDITURES
A = STATE AID % FOR EDUCATION
COINCI DENT POI NTS
- - - - + - - - - + - -
+ -
- - - + - *
+ -i
- - - + - -
-R
-
90 +
-
-
-
*
-
-
*
+
-
-
-
-
-
.
-
-
-
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
xx
I
80 + - - - -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
-
-
X
a
P P
-
P P P
-4+
P P P I
P P
I
I
P P
6 0 +-
P P P
- - - - - -
-
-
-4+
- -
--
-P
P
+
xxa xx
X X X X -
40 + - --
I
a
-
-
-
-
-
-
x
-
*
*
-
X
X
X
-
-
I
+
P P P P PP P P
i
I
-
X
a
*
*
*
I
I
*
L L L L ***L
I
T *T
T T *
T
*
*L
I T
La
L
L L L
T T T T T
I
a
*
R
+
X
X
xx
LLLLLL
P P P
X X
L L L L
i
T T
* L L L L . L L L L * * L L *T
IL L L L L L L L **
a
I
P P P P P
T T T X X T T T T
--T T T X X X T T -S0 + P PP
--*
*
-**
T TT T T
X X
I
*
x
x
I
IT T T
w
X +
XX
--
i
P P P
-
X
* P
xXX
P P P
-
--
70 +-------
*X
-.
*'E
-
-
-
-
+4 -
+I
I
a.-
Ix
I S S S S SS S s S S S S
I
310
--
--
--
+*---
+-
S
**S
S S S S S S S S S S
**- - - -
*
+
-
-
-
-
-
S S S
S S
S
s
S S S S S S S
a
a* a
2
aa
*
0 -+-
-
a
A A A AA
A
A A A A A A A A
- - - A A A A A A A A A
- - - - - - - A A A
I
S - - - -
-
-
-
-
+
S.S S s S S SSr S
a
a-
A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
A
I
A A A
IA A A A
1
0
2
.4
6 ,
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44A
6
48
S0
2
4
D.ATE --
5/
VERSION
9/71
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
DEPARTING INDUSTRY RUN
3
PAGE
1
--
MODIFICATION
4
-725
EXPENDITURES
EDUCATION EXPFNDITU2ES
PROTEC1TTN
SERVICES
HIG'nAY EXPENDITURES
mATFR AND SANITATION
RECREATION AND PARKS
HOSPITALS AND HEALTH
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
OTHER
EXPENDITURES
TOTAL PUBLIC SERVICES
MANDATED COSTS
DEBT SERVICE
TOTAL EXPENDITURES
REVENUES
PROPERTY TAXES
USER
CHARGES
TOTAL LOCAL REVENUES
FEDFRAL GRANTS
TOTAL REVFNUES
NET St'RPLUS OR DEFICIT
CUM SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
#ROPERTY
8152.6
2328.4
1627.6
1402.6
S50,0
7821.7
1975.8
1595.0
995.4
796.7
809.4
3674.9
953.8
4227.2
20237*5
3055.5
837.7
24130.7
18342.9
2688*9
21031.8
667.4
BORPOWINGS
STATE GRANTS
10
1190.2
513.1
18376.7
3074.1
887.4
?2338.3
16561.0
2530.7
19091.7
2157.7
287.5
537.3
2465.8
260.0
24144.4
22354.9
13.7
538.2
16.6
561.5
278714.4
56177. s
.2c1160.4
15
8316.7
2132.3
1724.6
1284.5
565.0
859.1
873.5
3968.1
19723.9
3133.8
904.4
23762.1
17729.7
?650.7
20360.5
523.7
2563.9
286,3
23774.4
20
8815. 0
2316.8
1798.2
1395.7
613.2
950.*0
949.1
4264.2
21102.6
25
10098.3
2719.8
2001.0
1638.4
707.7
1139.2
1114.1
4937 . 0
24355.6
30
10947.6
3052,6
2116.7
1838.9
767,8
1309,1
1250.5
5548.
26831.3
3299.1
922.8
3718.9
944.6
979,0
25324.6
29019.1
31789.5
18809.8
21692.3
3148,1
23683.6
2870.8
21680.7
556.3
2763.3
333. 1
25333.3
24940. 4
606.4
3194.5
393.3
"29034 . 6
3979.1
3446.3
27130.0
655.1
3518*6
478.5
31782. 1
35
45
12543.3
3655.2
2383,7
14065.8
2201.9
2600.0
989.2
1937.6
15737.0
5112.7
2912.4
3079,9
1111.0
2340.1
1768.0
2082.8
796A.0
9478.6
41854.5
5676.6
1121*2
48652.2
880.1
1604.2
1497.3
6695.5
31461.3
4530.1
1023.4
37014.8
a31S.9
7635.9
36280,4
5070.9
1051.1
42407.4
27680.6
3618.4
31698.9
A77.2
32245,6
4231.2
37227.6
36476.8
645.5
4050.3
4549.6
41917.4
766.a
5063.1
589.0
37015.3
729.2
8.8
560.2
15.5
598.4
-7.4
557.0
267605.*0 294328.7
327126.9
59206.5
414151.3
72156.1
12.2
604,7
40
.6
623.1
4740101
1.
622.2
4669.8
902,5
48649.5
50
17192.6
5980.1
3145.3
3602.5
1219,6
2763.9
2368.0
109818
47253.8
6212.0
1167.3
54633.1
42007,6
5196.6
47204.2
782.7
5545.8
1109.6
54642.3
-2.8
642.9
9.%
668.5
532454.1
88688.6
53245.0
674388.2
602949.8
96042.5
60295.0
761287.2
55.2
VALUATION
REST0ENTIAL
COM'ERCIAL
INDSTRIAL
TOTAL PROPERTY VALUATION
TAX RATE (PER THOUSAND)
41607.2
376699.1
48.7
47517.7
25116.0
49867.3
26760.5
29432,9
377855.1
419046,1
49.8
51.8
367135.1
65275.3
36713.5
469123.9
50.5
54093.5
32712,7
18835.0
9307.6
USED
UNUSEn
9527. *
COMMUNITY DFSCRIPTION
TOTAL POPULATION
GROSS DENSITY
527722.5
52.8
506230.8
54-.1
3?3794.2
51.1
34423?.8
51.5
16189.7
17211.6
18892.8
20952.3
23456.2
26386.1
38064.4
10049.4
1025,3.7
10495.9
10878.3
99811.5
33719.a
9860.1
11371.2
11679.4
6329,6
12457,4
7162,3
12970.4
8639.1
10456.4
12577.9
15014.9
18132.2
21262.0
25093.9
47.4
49.3
4.9
.51.4
5.1
87.4
46.0
PUBLIC SERvICES / CAPITA
393.6
EDUCATION AS I OF EXPENn
PROTECTION AS 2 OF EXPND
STATE Ali I FOR EOUCAT'N
PROPEPTY TAX AS 1 OF REV
33.8
399.7
35,0
8.8
32.6
57.5
7042.7
25476.9
DEPrNDENCY RATIO
VALUATION PER
CAPITA
VALUATION PER PUPIL
9.6
23.0
56.2
7326.7
21015.0
79994.5
46930.S
BONDING CAPACITY
AVAILABLE
4"9305.5
41015.1
4,6
89.0
45.9
.4.6
87.0
429.6
35.0
9.0
31.7
58.0
7498.4
27820.8
4,7
85.4
445.4
.34.8
9.1
32.1
57.8
7974.8
29821.5
84.0
493.6
34.8
9.4
33.1
58.3
8492.5
31612.4
51.8
5.2
82.3
518.4
34.4
9.6
34.2
58.3
9063.4
33525.3
54.4
5.4
80.6
577.9
33.9
9.934,9
59.1
9693.7
35750.6
57.4
5.7
78.9
631.8
33.2
10.2
35.2
59.9
1038;.9
18302,0
55.2
60.6
6.1
77.6
690.9
32.3
10.5
35.a
60.4
11133.1
41160.4
63.7
6.4
76.6
701.7
31.5
10.9
35,4
60.9
1 Q.95
44317,.9
MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF
DEPARTING INDUSTRY
5/ 9/71
DATE -VERSION
3
1~00 + - - - - - - -
P a TOTAL POPULATION
R = TOTAL REVENUES
T a PROPERTY TAX RATE
E a TOTAL EXPENDITURES
L a PROPERTY TAX AS % OF REVENUE
S z EDUCATInN AS I OF EXPENDITURES
X a PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA
A = STATE AID I FOR EDUCATION.
*
COINCIDENT POINTS
-4+
-I
90 +
PAGE -mnDIFICATION
TECHNOLOGY
RUN
+I
+I
+I
.-.- - - ----
..
I
80 + -
-
-
*
-
-
".
I
+
-I
+I
+I
+I
X
70 +
-
-
-
'-
-
-
-
-
X
+
X
-
-. +
I TI
X
60+--
I
- -- --+
+- - - - - - - - + - - - - L *
I
L L L L L L L L L L L L L L LI L L L L L L L L L LI L x L L L X
I
- - - - - -
I
iL
L L L LI
P P *T
P P P T - -P
50
T
I
T T
4 0 +---X
I
I
PPP
L L L L ***L
P P P
L L L L
1.
-I
X
P P P
I
T T
T T
T T T**
I X *P P TT TT T T T
T T T
-1
T
T T T T ***
T T T T
* P T T T
T
I*
- - + -T T T - - - T T T T - T-***
+----- *--+
P T T T T - - - - - - P
I
P P
x
P P
I
I
Xx
i
X X X X X X
I
I X X
I S S S S
I
I S S S-5 S S S S S I
S S S S S S S S S S ****
-lA
A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
X
- -+-
3
I
---
- -- -
a*
*
-
I . .
. .
I
A
*******S
-
I
--
--
--
I
+-
S S S s S S
s SI
- - - - - - - - +
PP
I
I
*
I
2 0 +--A
-
AA A A A A A A
S S S SI
. . ..-
...
LL.
E A
- - - - - - +
A
A
AI
0
2
4-6-8-10
1
0 +
-
-
-
-
-
-
X - -
+
12
14
16
18
20
22
24 '26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
2
4
-
74 -
AP ENDLX E
MODEL LrSTLRG
The following is a listing of the complete computer program used
to implement this model.
++
C
C
C
C
P9901A
75-
-
++
DAVID LAPIDES
SIZE ALPHA = 8, IN TEGER = 7, REAL = 12
SEGMENT SIMLX, vRI TX. PRNITX, PLOTX, CLOSE , DATE
20, RECORD
1 = 09901A. UNIT = DISK, AREA
FILE
5 = C9901A, UNIT = HEADER
FILE
6 = R9901A, UNIT = PRINTER
FILE
C
C
COMMON.
1
-
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
COMMON
COMMON
ALPHA
LOGICAL
REAL
AAAA
CHLD (50)
FREV (50)
s
SREV (50)
. OTR (50)
LISEC (50)
VALC (50)
PCEDU (50)
,
STAID (50)
/JNK/ IPAGE, IVER,
/PLT/ LINE (101) ,
APOP (50)
,9
OEBX (50)
,9
= 125, RANDOM
BOND (50)
DEPN (50)
LREV (50)
TNFT (50)
TPSX (50)
VIND (50)
XCAP (50)
TDEBT (50)
9
(50)
9
(50)
,9
(50)
,9
(50)
,9
(50)
(50) 9
UJBONb (50)
IMOD, IMO, ,IDA. IYR,
, JVAL
MAXX
INCM
TAXR
TOTX
VCOM
VT AX
PCREV
J1,
9
BORW (50)
,
MAND
(50)
*
TREV
VRES
(50)
(50)
,
,
9
9
,9
,9
9
,9
9
TDIFF (50)
J2,
J3,
,
N
LINE
PRNT
INCH
PLOT
, LREV
,
,
WRIT
MAND
M
C
C
900 FORMAT
(413, 3L1)
C
C
SELECT RUN TIME PARAMETERS
N, PRNT, PLOT,
READ (5, 900) J1. J2p J3
CALL CLOSE (.5,.2HFL)
ASSIGN 100 TO KK
ASSIGN 101 TO KK
IF (N ,GT. 0)
MODEL VERSION
IVER = 3
IMOD = 4
MAXX = 0
RETRIEVE TODAY'S DATE
***
CALL DATE (IMO, IDA, IYR)
SImULATION LOOP GO TO 99
IF (N..GT. 0)
N = 1 8
00 100
PERFORM SIMULATION
99
CALL SIML X (WRIT)
PRODUCE F XTRA PRINT-OUT
***
CALL WRITX
IF (WRTT)
***
PRnDUCE S TANDARD PRINT-OUT
CALL PRNT-X
IF (PRNT)
***
PRODUCF C HART
CALL PLOTX
IF (PLOT)
101)
GO TO KK, (100,
100 CONTINUE
*** END OF JOB
101 STOP
END
C *
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
WRIT
COMPILER
701 32
ASR03.?BF
3:13 PM
05/09/71
0 MIN 23 SEC FfR COMPILATION PASS
58 CARDS AT 149 CARDS PER MINUTE
714 DIGITS CODE, 25824 DIGITS COMMON,
100 DIGITS DATA,
.
000010 C
000020
000030
000040
000050
000060
000070
000080
000090
000100
000110
000120
-000130
000140
000150
000160
000170
000180
000190
000200
000210
000220
000230
000240
000250
000260
000270
000280
000290
000300
000310
000320
000330
000340
000350
000360
000370
000380
000390
000400
000410
0004?0
000430
000440
000450
000460
000470
000480
000490
000500
000510
000520
000530
000540
000550
000560
000570
SUBROUTINE SIMLX (WRIT)
C
COMMON
1
2
3
6
7
8
,
(50)
(50)
,
,
,
(50)
v DERX (50)
, INCH (50)
,
,
,
SREV
,
(50)
,
LRFV
TNFT
TOTX (50)
,
,
TPSX (50)
VIND (50)
,
*
XCAP
p APOP
(50)
TOTR (50)
9
USEC (50)
,
VALC (50)
PCEDU (50) p
STAID (50) ,
IPAGE, IVER,
APRT (5, 2)v
ADNS (5, 2)o
AREC (2, 2)p
4
BOND (50)
DFPN (50)
CHLD (50)
FREV (50)
AAAA
TAXR
VCOM- (50)
VTAX
(50)
(50)
RORW (50)
9
(50)
,
TREV (50)
VRES (50)
9
,
,
MAND
p
p
,
PCREV (50)
TDEBT (50)
TOIFF (50) v
180ND (50)
Tm4D
IMO, InA, IYR, J, J2, J3v N
COMMON /JNK/
AHLT (5, 2), ARDS (5, 2), ASNT (5, 2) ,
DIMENSION
2), AEDU (4, 2). AMSC (3D 2) ,
AGNR (4p
1
ABRT (2, 2)
2
FLAGI
, FLAG2
WRIT
9
LOGICAL
9
9
, MISC
INCH
9 HAND
LREV
REAL
MIG40
M
p
MIG35
MIG30
MIG25
1
MIG60
p MIG55
MIG50
2
MIG45
'9 MONEY
MIG99
3
MIG65
EQUIVALENCE (PERO4, GRT04), (PFR12, GRT12), (PER18, GRT18)
GRT35)
(PFR35,
EQUIVALENCF (PER25, GRT25), (PER30, GRT30),
EQtJIVALFNC F (PER40, GRT40), (PFR45, GRT45), (PER50, GRT50)
EQUIVALENCE (PEH55, GRT55), (PER60, GRT60), (PER65, GRT65)
EQUIVALENCF (PER99, GRT99.)
DATA APRT / 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 7.5, 9.5, 0.59 0.8,1.2, 1.6, 2.1 /
DATA AHLT / 2,0, 4.0, 6.0. 7.5, 9.5, 0.5, 0.7, 1.3. 1.8, 2.2 /
DATA ASNT / 2.0, 4.0, 6.0o 7.5, 9.5o 0.5, 0.8. 1.2, 1.6, 1.8 /
DATA AGNR / 4.0, 6,0, P.0, 9.5, 0.8, 1.2, 1.59 1.8 /
DATA ADNS / 5.0, 6.5. 7.4v 6.5. 9.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.0. -0.6, -1.2 /
1.00, 0.90o 0.80/
DATA APDS / 2.0, 3.5, 5.0, 7.5, 9.5. 1.25. 1.10,
/
1.7
/~
1.0,
0.6,
AMSC
8.0,
DATA
2.0, 5.0,
DATA AEDU / 0.20. 0.30, 0.35, 0.40, 0.9v 1.0, 1.1. 1,2/
DATA APEC / 0.20, 0.40, 0.8, 1,2 /
DATA APRT / 1.0, 50.0, 1.0, 0.9 /
DATA ZERO / 0,0 /
C
C
IPAGE = 0
C **
INITIALIZE EVERYTHING
K = 1, 50
10
DO
APOP (K) = ZERO
ZERO
BOND (K)
BORW (K) = ZFRO
CHLD (K) = ZERO
DERX (K) = ZERO
DEPN (K) = ZFRO
FREV (K) = ZERO
INCH (K) = ZERO
LREV ~(K) = ZERO
HAND (K) = ZFRO
SREV (K) = ZFRO
TAXR (K) = ZERO
TNET (K) = ZERO
TOTR (K) = ZERO
TOTX (K) = ZFRO
TPSX (K) = ZFRO
TREV (K) = ZFan
USEC (K) = ZERO
VALC (K) = ZERO
VCOM (K) = ZERO
VIND (K) = ZERO
VRES (K) = ZERO
~ '
.
000580
000590
000600
000610
000620
000630
000640
000650
000660
000670
000680
000690
000700
000710
000720
000730
000740
000750
000760
000770
000780
000790
000800
000810
000820
000830
000840
000850
000860
000870
000880
000890
000900
000910
000920
000930
000940
000950
000960
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
000970 C
000980
000990
001000
001010
001-020
001030
001040
001050
-001060
001070
001080
001090
001100
001110
001120
001130
001140
001150
001160
001170
001180
001190
001200
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
VTAX (K) = ZFRO
XCAP (K) = ZERO
PCFOU (K) = ZERO
PCPEV CK) = ZERO
STAID (K) = ZERO
TOERT (K) = ZERO
TDIFF (K) = ZERO
10 CONTINUE
C *** SET INITIAL CONDITIONS
j
0
.I
1
FLAGI = .T.
FLAG2 = .T.
AAAA = 49.6
TPOP = 50.0
APOP (1)
TPOP
TDFBT (1)
8000.0TDIFF (1)
500.0
RMAN = 56,0
RSCH= 575.0
RPRT = 41.5
RHLT = 17.5
RREC = 11,0
RROS = 30,0
RGNR = 17.0
RSNT = 25.0
RMSC = 75.0
RINC = 0.02
RBOR = 12.0
RSTA = 12.0
RFED = 5.0
RUSE = 50.0
RCQM = 3.50
RMUL = 60.0
RATE = 0.20
RINT = 0.04
RIN2 = -1.05
RMAX = 0305
RPAY = 20.0
SHRT = ZERO
VIN25 = 6300.0
VIN30 = 7000.0
VIN35 = 7500.0
VIN40 = 7800.0
V.IN45 = 8000.0
VIN50 = 8300.0
VIN55 = 8500.0
VIN60 = 8800.0
VIN65 = 8500.0
VIN99 = 6000,0
VMIND = 0.15
STSCHL = 1350.0
STROAD = 120.0
STVALC = 21500.0
ASSIGN 140 TO JJ
ASSIGN 175 TO KK
ASSIGN 164 TO LL
ASSIGN 291 TO MM
RPAY = 30.0
2)
.
IF (N
VMIND = 0.25
IF (N . F . 3)
ASSIGN 293 TO
IF (N F0. 4)
ASSIGN 163 TO
IF (N .FO. 5)
ASSIGN 120 TO
6)
IF (N J.
ASSIGN 130 TO
IF (N .EO. 7)
ABRT (2, 2) =
IF (N .EQ. 8)
RPAY
=
1.0 / RPAY
om,77.
MM
LL
JJ
JJ
1.0
001210
001220
001230
001240
001250
001260
001270
001280
001290
001300
001310
001320
001330
001340
001350
001360
001370
001380
001390
001400
001410
001420
001430
001440
001450
001460
001470
001480
001490
001500
001510
001520
001530
001540
001550
001560
001570
001580
001590
001600
001610
001620
001630
001640
001650
001660
001670
001680
001690
001700
001710
001720
001730
001740
001750
001760
001770
001780
001790
001800
001810
001820
001830
001840
001850
001860
C ***
C
C *
INITIAL VALUE FOR RANDOM NUiMRER 6ENE:RATOR
6
IX = 8361253
FIXED LAND AREA (IN THOUSA.D ACRES)
AREA = 10.0
DENS = TPOP / AREA
INITIALIZE POPULATION PARAMETERS
BRT18 = 0.0258
BRT25 = 0.0888
BRT30 = 0.0753
BRT35 = 0.0429
BRT40 = 0.0203
BRT45 = 0.0055
MIG25 = 0,01
MIG30 = 0.01
MIG35 = 0.01
MIG40 = 0.01
MIG45 = 0.01
MIG50 = 0.01
MIG55 = 0.01
0,01
MIG60
MIG65 = 0.01
MIG99 = 0.01
PERO4 = 0.111
PER12 = 0,158
PER18 = 0.098
PER25 = 0.076
PER30 = 0.061
PER35 = 0.067
PER40 = 0.070
PER45 = 0.065
PER5O = 0.061
PERS5 = 0.054
PER60 = 0,047
PER65 = 0,040
PER99 = 0.092
POPO4 = PERO4 * TPOP
POP12 = PER12 * TPOP
POP18 = PER18 * TPOP
POP25 = PER?5 * TPOP
POP30 = PER30 * TPOP
POP35 = PER35 * TPOP
POP40 = PER40 * TPOP
POP45 = PER45 * TPOP
POP50 = PERSO * TPOP
POP55
=
PER55
*
7
001870
001880
001890
001900
001910
001920
001930
001940
001950
001960
001970
001980
001990
002000
002010
002020
002030
002040
002050
002060
002070
002080
002090
002100
002110
002120
002130
002140
002150
002160
002170
002180
002190
002200
002210
002220
002230
002240
002250
002260
002270
002280
002290
002300
.-
-002310 C
TPnP
POP60 = PER60 * TPOi
POP65 = PER65 * TPOP
POP99 = PER99 * TPOP
GO TO 105
C *** FINISH UP THIS PFRIO0'S CALCULATIONS
= (PERO4 + PEP12 + PER18 + PFR99) / (PER25 + PER3o +
100 DEPN- ()
PEP35 + PER40
TAXR (I) = 1000.0
+ PER45 +
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
PFR50
+ PFR55 +
PER60 + PER65)
*
002320
002330
002340
002350
002360
100,0
k TAXR (1)
XCAP (I) = TPSX (I) / TPOP '
PCFDU (I) = SCHL / TOTX (I) * 100,0
PCREV (I) = (VRES (I) * TAXR (I)) / (TrTR (1) * 10,0)
STAID (I) = 100.0 * STFDUC
+ TNET (I)
TDI-FF (I) = TDIFF (I
UBrND (I) = ROND (I) - TOERT (1)
GO TO 101
RIT)
IF (.NOT.
WRITE (1=I) POPO4, POP12. POP18, PrP25, POP30, POP35, POP40,
PUP45, POP50, PUP55, PP60, POP65, POP99
I
SCHL, PROT, RflADo SANT# RFCR. HLTH, GNRL,
DENS'
101 WRITE (1=I+50)
MISCP ZERO, MONEY# STSCHL' STROAD
I
GO 10 300
IF (I .FQ. 50)
START CALCULATIONS FOR NFW PERIOD
C ***
C
C
C
C
C
002370 C
00?380 C
002390
002400
002410
002420
002430
002440
002450
00?460
002470
00?480
002490
002500
002510
002520
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C ***
C
***
002530
002540
002550
002560
002562
002564
002566
002570
002580
002590
002600
002610
002620
002630
002640
002650
002660
002670
002680
002690
002700
002710
002720
002730
002740
002750
002760
002770
002780
002790
= +1
ASSIGN 165 TO KK
RCOM = 1.01 * RCOH
RUSE = 1.01 * RUSE
RSTA = 1.01 * RSTA
RFED = 1.0? * RFED
ONE AND ONF-HALF PERCENT ANNUAL GROWTH IN INCOME
TEMP-= 1.015
VIN25 = TEMP * VIN25
VIN30 = TEMP * VIN30
VIN35 = TEMP * VIN35
VIN40 = TEMP * VIN40
VIN45 = TEMP * VIN45
VIN50 = TEMP * VIN50.
VIN60 = TEMP * VIN60
VIN65 = TEMP * VIN65VIN99 = TEMP * VIN99
STVALC = TEMP * STVALC
CALCULATE NUMBER OF A DIJLT.MIGRANTS
MIG99 * POP99
GRT99
HIG65 * POP65
GRT65
MIG60 * POP60
GRT60
GRT60 = GRT60.* TARLX (ADNS, 5, DENS)
IF (GRT60 .GT. ZERO)
GRT55 = MIG55 * POP55
GRT55 = GRT55 * TABLX (ADNS, 5p DENS)
IF (GRT55 .GT. ZERO)
POP50
*
MIG50
=
GRT50
GRT50 = GRT50 * TABLX (ADNS, 5v DENS)
IF (GRT50 .GT, ZERO)
GRT45 =
MIG45
*
POP45
IF (GRT45 .GT. ZERO)
GRT40 = MIG40 * POP40
IF (GRT40 .GT. ZERO)
GRT3S = MIG35 * POP35
IF (GRT35 .GT. ZERO)
GRT30 = MIG30 * PDP30
IF (GRT30 .GT. ZERO)
GRT25
= MIG25
*
= GRT45 * TABLX (ADNS, 5, DENS)
GRT40 = GRT40 * TABLX (ADNS, 5# DENS)
GRT35 = GRT35 * TABLX (ADNS, 5, DENS)
GRT30 = GRT30 * TABLX (ADlNS,
5v DENS)
P0P25
ZERO)
IF (GRT25 .GT,
GRT45
GRT25
= GRT25 * TARLX (ADNS, 5v DENS)
GRT60 + 0.273 * GRT55 + 0.441 *
GRT50 + 0.408 * GRT45 + 0.261 * GRT40 + 0.132 * GRT35
GRT12 = 0.013 * GRT60 + 0.092 * GRT55 + 0.238 * GRT50 + 0.452 *
GRT45 + 0,412 * GRT40 + 0.331 * GRT35 + 0.252 * GRT30 + 0. 163
1
2
* GRT25
GRT04 = 0.011 * GRT50 + 0.151 * GRT45 + 0.265 * GRT40 + 0.408 *
GRT35 + 0.362 * GRT30 + 0.276 * GRT25
1
C *** COMPUTF POPULATION -BREAKOOWNS FOR NEW PERIOD
TEMP = I
POP99
0.9286 * POP99 + 0.1803 * PUP65 + GRT99
*
POP60 + GRT65
0.7212 * POP65 +4 0,1866
POP65
*
+
PUP55 + GRT60
0.1911
PCIP60
0,7465 *
POP60
*
POP50 + GRT55
0.7642 * POP55 + 0.1943
POP55
*
PUP45 + GRT5O
0.7773 * POP50o + 0.1963
PO~P50
*
POP40 + GRT45
0.7854 * POP45 + 0.1976
POP45
0.7904 * POP40 + 0.1983 * POP35 + GRTA0
POP40
*
POP3n + GRT35
0.7932 * POp 35 + 0.1987
POP35
+
0.1665 * POP25 + GRT3n
0.7947 * PnP30
PuP30
*
POP18 + GRT25
POP25
0.8275 * POP?5 + 0.1660
+
0.1247 * POP12 + GRTI8
POP.18
0.8297 * POP88
*
POPO4 + GRT12
0.8731 * PfnP12 + 0.1982
POP12
0.7970 * POPo4 + 0.9753 * (8RT18 * POP18 + BRT25 * POP25 +
POPO4
BRT30 * POP30 + BRT35 * POP35 + BRT40 * POP40 + BRT45 * POP45)
1
* TARLX (A9RT, 2, TEMP) + GRT04
2
GRT18
=
0.012
*
GRT65 + 0,098 *
1
TPOP
1
C
***
PoPo4 + POP12 + POPib + POP25 + POP30 + POP35
POP45 + POP50 + POP55 + POP60 + POP65 + POP99
COMPUTE PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWNS
PERO4 = POPO4 / TPOP
+
POP40
+
002800
002810
002820
002830
002840
002850
002860
002870
002880
002890
002900
002910
002920
002930
.002940
002950
002960
002970
002980
002990
003000
003010
003020
003030
003040
003050
003060
003070
003080
003090
003100
003110
003120
003130
003140
003150
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
CC
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
(
PER12 = POP12 / TPOP
PER18 = POP18 / TPOR
PER25 = POP25 / TPOP
PER30 r POP30 / TPOP
PER35 r POP35 / TPOP
PER40 = POP40 / TPOP
PER45 = POP45 / TPaP
PER5O = POP50 / TPDP
PER55 = POP55 / TPOP
PER60 = POP60 / TPOP
PER65 = PDP65 / TPOP
PER99 = POP99 / TPOP
C *** COMPUTE GROSS POPULATION DENSITY
TPOP / AREA
DENS
APOP (I) = iPOP
REDUCE DEBT PRINCIPLE
C
TDFBT (I) = TDEBT- (J) * (1.0 - RPAY)
TOIFF (I) = TDIFF (J)
C *** SHORT TERM DEBT
SHRT = ZERO
GO TO 105
IF (TDIFF (I) .GE. ZERO)
SHRT = RIN2 * TDIFF (I)
TDIFF (I) = ZERO
C *** PROPERTY VALUE CALCULATIONS
105 MONEY = VIN25 * POP25 + VIN30 * POP30 + VIN35 * POP35 + VIN40 *
POP40 + VIN45 * POP45 + VIN50 * POP50 + VIN55 * POP55 + VIN60
S1
* POP60 + VIN65 * POP65 + VIN99 * POP99
2
VRES (1) = 1.1 * MONEY - 0.135 * VIN25 * POP25 + 0.035 * VIN65 *
POP65 + 0.135 * VIN99 * POP99
I
GO TO JJ. (120, 125, 130, 135. 140)
NEW INDUSTRY RUN
C *
120 IF (I .LT. 6)
GO TO 140
0.25
VMIND
1.02 * RSCH
RSCH
1.02 * RPRT
RPRT
RRDS
1.05 * RRDS
RHLT = 1.02 * RHLT
RSNT = 1,0? * RSNT
1.0? * RRFC
RREC
1.02 * RGNR
RGNR
1.01 * RMSC:
RMSC
19.0
RBOR
MIG25 = MI(25 + 0.007
MIG30 + 0.007
MIG30
MI.G35 = MIG35 + 0.007
MIG40 + 0.005
MIG40
MIG45 = MIG45 + 0.005
MIG50 = MIG50 + 0.003
MIG55 = MIG55 + 0.003
MIG60
MIG60 + 0.001
MIG65 + 0,001
MIG65
ASSIGN 125 TO JJ
GO TO 140
125 VMIND = VMIND + 0.01
GO TO 126
IF (I .GT. 7)
MIG25 = MIG25 - 0.006
MIG30 = MIG30 - 0.006
MIG35 = MIG35 - 0.006MIG40 = MIG40 - 0.004
MIG45 = MIG45 - 0.005
MIG50 = MIG50 - 0.003
MIG55 = MIG55 - 0.003
MIG60 = MIGbO - 0.001
MIG65 = MIGb5 - 0,001
GO TO 140
127, 129
140,
-126 IF (I - 9)
003160
003170
003180
003190
003200
003210
003220
003230
003240
003250
003260
003270
003280
003290
003300
003310
003320
003330
003340
003350
003360
003370
003380
003390
003400
003410
003420
003430
003440
003450
003460
003470
003480
003490
003500
003510
003520
003530
003540
003550
003560
003570
003580
003590
.003600
003610
003620
003630
003640
003650
003660
003670
003680
003690
003700
003710
003720
003730
003740
003750
003760
003770
003780
003790
003800
003810
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
127 RSCH = 0.98 * RSCH
RPRT = 0.98 * RPRT
RRDS = 0.96 * RRDS
RHLT = 0.98 * RHLT
RSNT = 0.98 * RSNT
RREC = 0.98 * RREC
RGNR = 0.98 i RGNR
RMSC = 0.99 * RMSC
RBOR = 12.0
GO TO 140
12.9 ASSIGN 140 TO JJ
GO TO 140
*** OLD INDUSTRY DEPARTING RUN
130 IF (I .LT. 6)
GO T0 140
VMIND = 0.10
MIG25 = MIG25 - 0.075
MIG30 = MIG30 - 0,075
MIG35 = HIC35 - 0.075
MIG40 = MIG40 - 0.065
MIG45 = MIG45 - 0,040
MIG50 = MIG50 - 0.040
MIG55 = MIG55 - 0,030
0.030
MIG60 = MIG60
MIG65 = MIG65 - 0.030
MIG99 = MIG99 - 0.007
VIN25 = 0.90.* VIN25
VIN30 = 0.93 * VIN30
VIN35 = 0.93 * VIN35
VIN40 = 0,93 * VIN40
VIN45 = 0.93 * VTN45
VIN50 = 0,93 * VIN50
VIN55 = 0,95 * VTN55
VIN60 = 0,95 * VIN60
VIN65 = 0.98 * VIN65
RCOM = 0.90 * RCOM
ASSIGN 135 TO JJ
GO TO 140
135 MIG25 = MIG25 + 0.0100
MIG30 = MIG30 + 0.0100MIG35 = MIG35 + 0.0100
MIG40 = MIG40 + 0.0093
MIG45 = MIG45 + 0.0060
MIG50 = MIG50 + 0.0060
MIG55 = MIG55 + 0.0047
MI.G60 = MIG60 + 0,0047
0.01)47
MIG65 = MIG65
MIG99 = MIG99 + 0.0013
GO TO 140
IF (I .LT. 12)
ASSIGN 140 TO JJ
COMPLETE PROPERTY VALUF CALCULATIONS
**
140 VIND (I) = VMIND * VRES (I)
FCOM = RMUL * TPOP
VCOM (I) = RCOM * FCOM / RATE***
CALCULATE TAX 8ASE AND BONOING CAPACITY
VTAX (T) = VRES (I) + VCOM (I) + VIND (I )
BOND (1) = RMAX * VTAX (I)
***
CALCULATE FSTIMATED PURLIC SERVICE COSTS
CHLD (1) = POP12 + POP18
PC2545 = PFR30 + PER35 + PFR40 + PER45
SCHL = RSCH * CHLD (I) * TABLX (AEDUP, 4. PC2545)
PROT = RPRT * TPOP * TAbLX (APRT. 5, DFN S)
ROAD = RROS * TPOP * TbHLX (ARbS, 5, DFN S)
SANT = RSNT * TPOP * TAbLX (ASJT. 5, DrN S)
HLTH = RHLT * TPOP * TARLX (AHLTt 5, DEN S)
GNRL = RGNR * TPOP * TAbLX (AGNR, 4, DEN S)
FN S)
MISC = RMSC * TPnP * TAbLX (AMSC, 3,
003820
003830
003840
003850
003860
003870
003880
003890
003900
003910
003920
003930
003940
003950
'003960
003970
003980
003990
004000
004010
0040?0
004030
004040
004050
004060
004070
004080
004090
004100
004110
004120
004130
004140
004150
004160
004170
004180
004190
004200
004210
004220
004230
004240
004250
-004260
004270
004280
004290
004300
004310
004320
004330
004340
004350
004360
004370
004380
004390
004400
004410
004420
004430
004440
004450
004460
004470
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
a RREC * TPOP * TABLX (AREC, 2, PC2545) TPSX (I) = SCHL + PROT + Rf AD + RECR + SANT + HLTH + GNRL +
CALCULATE GRANT S FROM STATE AND FEIlERAL GOVERNMENTS
VALC (1) = VTAX (I) / CHLD (I)
STEDUC =-1,O - 0.65 * VALC (1) / STVALC
- 1?a
0.15
IF (STEDUC .LT. 0.15)
STEDUC
IF (STEDUC .GT. 0.75)
STEDUC = 0.75
STSCHL = STEDUC * ((0.9 * SCHL) - STSCHL)
STROAD = 0.25 * ((0.4 * ROAD) - STROAD)
SREV (1) = STSC HL + STROAD + RSTA * TPnP
FRFV (1) = RFED * TPOP * TAbLX (AMSC, 3, DENS)
CALCULATE OTHER COSTS TO LOCAL GOVERNMFNT
MAND (1) = RMAN * TPOP
TEMP = MAND (J) - MAND (I)
IF-(TEMP .GE. ZERO)
MAND (I) = MAND (J) - 0.1 * TEMP
CALL UNIFRm (IX, TEMP)
TEMP = TEMP + TEMP - 1.0
B0Rvi () = (RBR-+ TEMP) * TPOP
AVAIL = BOND (1) - TDERT (I)
IF (BOPW (T) ,GT. AVAIL). RORW (I) = AVAIL
IF (AVAIL .LE. ZERO)
RORN (I) = ZERO
TDEt3T (I) = TOEBT (I) + BORi' (I)
DEBX (I) = TDEBT (I) * (RINT + RPAY) + SHRT
TOTX (1) = TPSX (1) + HAND (I) + DEBX (I)
CALCULATE USER CHARGES
USEC (1) = RUSE * TPOP
CALCULATE AMOUNT WHICH MUST BE RAISED FROM PRO PERTY TAX
TREV (1) = TOTX (I) - USEC () - BORW (I) - SR EV (I) - FREV
164)
GO TO LL, (163,
CALCULATE INCOME TAX RFVENUES
INCM (T) = RINC * MONEY
TRFV (C)
TREV (I) - INCM (1)
CALCULATE TAX RA TE
TAXR (1)
TREV (I) / VTAX (I)
TAX RATE MAY 8E EXCESSIVE
GO TO KK, (165
175p 180)
IF (CTAXR (I) / TAXR (J)) .LT. 1.05)
GO TO 175
FLAG2 = FLAG1
FLAGI = .F.
MIG25 = MIG25 - 0.004
MIG30 = MIG30 - 0.004
0.004
MIG35
MIG35
MIG40 = MIG40 - 0.003
MIG45
MIG45 - 0.003
0.002
MIG50
MIG50
MIG55"= MIG55 - 0.002
MIG60 - 0.001
MIG60
MIG65 = MI;65 - 0.001
SLASH EXPENDITURES
SCHL = 0.98 * SCHL
PROT = 0.98 * PROT
ROAD = 0.98 * ROAD
SANT = 0.98 * SANT
RECR = 0.98 * RECR
HLTH = 0,98 * HLTH
GNRL = 0.98 * GNRL
MISC = 0.98 * MISC
TPSX (I) = SCHL + PROT + ROAD + RECR + SANT + HLTH + GNRL +
ASSIGN 180 T.0 KK
RE-CALCULATE THE TAX RATE
IF (FLAG2)
GO TO 160
IF SECfNrD CONSECUTIVE HEFTY TAX INCREASE, SLASH EXPENDITURE
RSCH = 0.97 * RSCH
RPRT = 0.97 * RPRT
RRDS = 0.97 * RRDS
RSNT = 0.97 * RSNT
RECR
C *
C ***
160
C
*
C
*
C ***
163
C ***
164
C ***
165
C **
C **
C.***
MISC
-
(I)
MISC
RATES
004480
004490
004500
004510
004520
004530
004540
004550
004560
004570
004580
004590
004600
004610
Q04620
004630
004640
004650
004660
004670
004680
004690
004700
004710
004720
004730
004740
004750
004760
004770
004780
004790
004800
004810
004820
004830
004840
004850
004860
004870
004880
004890
004900
004910
004920
004930
004940
004950
004960
004970
004980
004990
005000
005010
005020
005030
005040
005050
005070
005080
005090
005100
005110
005120
005130
005140
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
RREC = 0.97
RHLT = 091
RGNR = 0.97
RMSC = 0.97
GO TO 160
C
***
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
***
RREC
RHLT
RGNR
RMSC
RESET FLAGS
175 FLAG1
C
*
*
*
*
.T.
RANDOMIZE
USER CHARGES
180 CALL UANIFRMI (IX, TEMP)
TEMP = TEMP - 0.5
USEC (I) = USEC (I) + TEMP * TPOP
*
COMPUTF ACTUAL REVENUES
TRFV (1) = TAXR (I) * VTAX (1)
LRFV (I) = TREV (I) + USEC (I) + INCH (I)
TOTR (I) = LREV (1) + qORoi (1)
+ SREV (I) + FREV (I)
**
DIFFERFNCE BETWEEN INCOME AND FXPENSES
DIFF = TOTR (I) - TOTX (I)
CHECK FOR SURPLUS- OR DEFICIT
*
IF (DIFF .GE. ZERO)
GO TO 290
*** DEFICIT, TRY TO COVER IT FROM RESERVES
IF (TDIFF (I) .LT. ZERO)
GD TO 250
TEMP = 0.75 * TDIFF (I)
IF ((TEMP + DIFF) .GT. ZERO)
GO TO 290
*
USE ONLY HALF OF RESERVES, TRY TO.BORRnW THE REST
TNET (1) = -0.5 * TOIFF (1)
DIFF = DIFF - TNET (I)
*
CHECK AVAILABLE BONDING CAPACITY
250 AVAIL = BOND (I) - TDERT (1)
GO TO 280
IF (AVAIL .LT. ZERO)
**
CALCULATE EXTRA DERT SERVICE TO COVER REMAINING DEFICIT
ADEBX
C *
C **
= DIFF
*
(RINT + RPAY)
CHFCK IF CAPACITY COVERS DEFICIT ANo EXTRA DEBT SERVICE
IF ((AVAIL + ADERX + DTFF) ,LT. ZERO)
GO TO 275
IT DOES, BORROW WHAT IS NEEDED
BORW
(J)
=
B0RW
(I)
+ DIFF
TOTR (T) = TOTR (I) + DIFF
DERX (I) = DEBX (I) 9 ADEBX
TNET (1) = TNET (I) + ADFEBX
TOTX (I) = TOTX (I) - ADEBXTDEBT (I) = TDEBT (I) + 'DIFF
GO TO 100
C *
INSUFFICIENT BONDING CAPACITY, USE IT ALL UP
275 ADFBX
AVAIL * (RINT + RPAY)
BORW (') = BORW (I) + AVAIL
DERX (I) = DEBX (I) + ADEBX
TNET (I) = TNET (I) -- ADFBX
TDFEBT (I) = BOND (I)
DIFF = DIFF + AVAIL
C *** NOTHING LEFT, SLASH EXPENDITURES AND RAISE TAXFS
280 SCHL = 0.95 * SCHL
PROT = 0.95 * PROT
ROAD = 0.95 * ROAD
SANT = 0.95 * SANT
RECR = 0.95 * RECR
HLTH = 0.95 * HLTH
GNRL = 0.95 * GNRL
MISC = 0.95 * MISC
TPSX CT) = SCHL +-PROT + ROAD + RECR + SANT + HLTH
MIG25. - 0.003
MIG25
0.003
MIG30
MIG30
MIG35
MIn35 - 0.003
MIG40 = lIG40 - 0.002
M1G45
MIG45
0.002
MIG50
=
MIG50
MIG55 = MIG55
MIG60 = MIG60
-
0.002.
0.001
0.001
-
+
GNRL
+
MISC
005150
005160
005170
005180
005190
005200
005210
005220
005230
-005240
005250
005260
005270
005280
005290
005300
005310
005320
005330
005340
005350
005360
005370
005380
005390
005400
005410
005420
005430
005440
005450
005460
005470
005480
005490
005500
005510
005520
005530
005540
005550
005560
005570
005580
005590
005600
005610
005620
005630
005640
005650
005660
005670
005680
005690
005700
005710
005720
005730
005740
005750
005760
005770
005780
005790
005800
-
Ao
-
C ***
290
291
C *
293
294
295
C *
300
- -4010161-
11
MIG65 = MIG65 - 0,001
ASSIGN 180 TO KK
GO TO 160
SURPLUS (OR SMALL DEFICIT) EXISTS
TNET (I) = DIFF.
Gf.TO 100
IF (DIFF .LE. ZERO)
GO TO MM, (291, 293, 294)
RSCH = 1.02 * RSCH
RPRT = 1.02 * RPRT
RRDS = 1,02 * RRDS
RSNT = 1.02 * RSNT
RHLT = 1.02 * RHLT
RREC = 1.0? * RREC
RGNR = 1.02 * RGNR
RMSC = 1,02 * RMSC
GO TO 295
SKYROCKETING PUBLIC SERVICE COSTS
IF (I .LT. 6) GO TO 291
ASSIGN 294 TO MM
RSCH = 1.08 * RSCH
RPRT = 1.07 * RPRT
RRDS = 1.05 * RRDS
RSNT = 1.06 * RSNT
RHLT = 1.06 * RHLT
RREC = 1.05 * R-REC
RGNR = 1.06 * RGNR
RMSC = 1.05 * RMSC
RMAN = 1.0? * RMAN
MIG25 = MIG25 + 0.0005
MIG30 = MIG30 + 0.0005
MIG35 = MIG35 + 0.0005
MIG40 = MIG40 + 0,0004
MIG45 = MIG45 + 0.0004
MIG50 = MIG50 + 0.0002
MIG55 = MIG55 + 0.0002
MIG60 = MIG60 + 0.0001
MIG65 = MIG65 + 0,0001
GO TO 100
RETURN TO MAIN PROGRAM
RETURN
END
CnMPILER
70132
ASRt3.2bF
3:15 PM
05/09/71
1 MIN 42 SFC FnR COMPILATION PASS
567 CARDS AT 331 CARDS PER MINUTE
4880 DIGITS DATA, 30432 DIGITS CflE. 24176 DIGITS COMMON.
f
. -1-
L
005810
005820
005830
005840
005850
005860
005870
005880
005890
005900
005910
005920
005930
005940
005950
005960
005970
005980
005990
006000
006010
006020
006030
006040
006050
006060
006070
006075
006080
006090
006100
006110
006120
006130
006140
006150
006160
006170
006180
006190
006200
I
FUNCTION TABLX (TBLE, NVAL,
XVAL)
C
DIMENSION
TRLF (NVAL,
2)
C
C
C
C
C
-
C
C
IF (XVAL .GT..TBLE (1, 1) ) GO TO 100
USE MINIMUM VALUF
TABLX = TBLE (1, 2)
RETURN
**
SEARCH FOR SMALLEST LARGE R VALUE
100 DO 105
I = 2, NVAL
105, 110, 115
IF (TBLE (1, 1) - XVA L)
105 CONTINUE
**
USE MAXIMUM VALUE
I = NVAL
*
USE CORRESPONDING TABLF V ALUE
110 TARLX = TBLE (I, 2)
RETURN
*** INTERPOLATE TO FIND VALUE
115 J = I - I
TEMPI = TBLE (J, 1)
TEMP2 = TBLE (J, 2)
-TABLX = (TRLE (1,2) - TEMP2) * (XVAL - TEMPI)
1
+ TEMP2
RETURN
END
05/09/71
3t15 PM
ASR#3.2BF
70132
0 MIN
4 SEC FOR COMPILATION PASS
27 CARDS AT 364 CARDS PER MINUTE
168 DIGITS DATA.
1456 DIGITS CODE,
* *
I.
COMPILER
/ (TBLECI,1)
-
TEMPI)
006210
006220
006230
006240
006250
006260
.006270
006280
006290
006300
006310
006320
006330
006340
006350
006360
006370
006380
006390
006400
006410
006420
006430
006440
006450
006460
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
SURROUTINE
WRITX
C
C OMMON
1
AAAA
CHLD
FREV
SREV
TOTR
2
3
4
DIMENSION
REAL
TEMP
INCH
9
(50)
(50)
(50)
(50)
(13)
,
APOP (50)
OERX (50)
INCM (50)
TAXR (50)
TOTX (50)
LREV
,9
9
9
9
t
BOND
DEPN
LREV
TNFT
TPSX
(50)
(50)
,9
BORW
(50)
,9
MAND
(50)
9
,9
(50)
9
(50)
(50)
,
MAND
C
C
19-24
,
0-4
13-18
5-12
YEAR POPULATION
910 FORMAT (54H0
55,
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
58H
I
60 PLUS)
60-64
21;-59
2
911 FORMAT (1H , 15, 14F9,l)
YEAR POPULATION DENSITY SCHOOL S PROTECTN HIGHWAYS S,
912 FORMAT (54H0
OTHER
TOTAL)
GENERAL
HEALTH
50HANITATN RECREATN
1
C
C
C ***
110
C **
115
120
C
125
(
130
KEY = 0
PRODUCE TABLE # 1
CALL HEADX
WRITE (6j 910)
I = 1, 50
Do 110
KEY = KEY + 1
13)
READ (1=KEY) (TEMP (J), J =t
J
WRITE (6, 911) I, APOP (I), (T EMP (J)
CONTINUE
PRODUCE TABLE # 2
CALL HFADX
910)
WRITE (6,
KEY = 0
I = 1, 50
DO 120
KEY = KEY + I
13)
READ (1=KEY) (TEMP (J), J =1
TPOP = APOP (I) / 100.0
J = 1. 13
DO 115
TEMP (J) = TEMP (J) / TPOP
CONTINUE
WRITE (6, 911) It APOP (I), (T EMP (J), J
CON T INtIfE
PRODUCE TABLE # 3
CALL HFADX
WRITE (6, 912)
I = 1, 50
DO 130
KEY = KEY + I
READ (1=KEY) (TEMP (J), J'= 1s 13)
TPOP = APOP (I)
TFMP (2) / CHLD (I)
TEMP (2)
3, 9
J
DO 125
TEMP (J) = TEMP (J) / TPOP
CONTINUE
TPSX (1) / TPOP
TEMP (10)
TEMP (11) / TPOP
TEmP (11)
TEMP (12) / CHLD C I)
TEMP (12)
TEMP (13).= TEMP (13) / TPOP
WRITE (6p 911) It TPOP, (TFMP (J), J = 19 13)
CONTINUE
RETURN
END
05/09/71
0 MIN
.,,70132
ASRr3.?BF
3115 PM
9 SEC FOR COMPILATION PASS.
COMPILER
= 1
13)
= 19 13)
006470
006480
006490
006500
006510
006520
006530
006540
006550
006560
006570
006580
006590
006600
006610
006620
006630
006640
006650
006660
006670
006680
006690
006700
006710
006720
006730
006740
006750
006760
006770
006780
006790
006800
006810
006820
006830
006840
006850
006860
006870
006880
006890
006900
006910
006920
006930
006940
006950
006960
006970
006980
006990
007000
007010
007020
007030
007040
007050
007060
61 CARDS AT 367 CARDS PER MINUTE
3054 DIGITS CODE.
988 DIGITS DATA,
12816 DI GITS COMMON.
SURROUTINE HFADX
C
COMMON
/JNK/
DIMENSION
ALPHA
DATA.T( 1,1),
DATA T(1,4),
DATA T(2,1),
DATA T(2,4),
DATA T(3,1),
DATA T(3,4),
DATA T(4,1),
DATA
T(4,4),
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
DATA
T(5,1),
T(5,4),
T(6,1),
T(6,4),
T(7,1),
T(7,4),
T(8,1),
T(8.4),
IMO, IDA#
IPAGE, IVER, IMOD
5)
T (8,
T
.
T(i,2), T(.1,3) / 8H
/ 8HRUN
T(1,5)
T(2,2), T(2,3) / 8HLENGTHFN,
T(2,5)
/ 8HTION PFR,
ENLA,
T(3,2), T(3,3) / 8H
T(3,5)
/ 8HTAX BASE.
INCRE,
T(4,2), T(4,3) / 8H
T (4,5)
/ 8HENDITURE,
p
T(5,2),-1(5,3) / 8H
T(5C5)
/ 8H TAX RUN.
,
T(6,3) / 8H
T(6,2),
v
T(6,5)
/ 8HRY RUN
0
T(7,2)' T(73) / 8H
T(7,5)
/ 8HTRY RUN ,
0
T(8.2). T(8.3) / 8H
T(8p5)
/ 8HATE RUN ,
IYRv J,
J3o N
J2.
8HC MODEL /
8H
BASI
8H
/
8HED DERT , 8HAMORTIZA/
8HIOD RUN /
8HRGFD IND* 8HUSTRIAL /
8H
RUN
/
8HASING PU, 8HBLIC EXP,
/
8HS RUN
8HMUNICIPA, 8HL INCOME/
8H
/
8H INCOMIN' 8HG INDUST/
8H
/
8H DEPARTI, 8HNG INDUS/
8H
/
8H BIRTH R/
8HCONSTANT,
8H
/
C
C
DATE -- , I2, 1H/, 12o IH/, 12o 25X# lOHMASSACHUSE,
900 FORMAT (12H1
26X, 9H PAGE -- r 13 /
27HTTS INST ITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
1
12H
VERS ION , 13' 29X, 5A8, 19X, 14H MODIFICATION , 13 /)
2
C
C
IPAGE = IPAGE + 1
WRITE (6. 900) IMO,
IMOD
1
RETURN
END
IDA,
IYR,
IPAGE,
IVER,
(T
(N,
I),
COMPILER
70 132
ASR#3.2BF
3115 PM
05/09/71
0 MIN 5 SEC FOR COMPILATION PASS
34 CARDS AT 343 CARDS PER MINUTE
160 DIGITS COMMON,
52? DIGITS CODE.
1044 DIGITS DATA.
I
1
5),
007070
007080
007090
007100
007110
007120
007130
007140
007150
007160
007170
007180
007190
007200
007210
007220
007230
007240
007250
007260
007270
007280
007290
007300
007310
007320
007330
007340
007350
007360
007370
007380
007390
SURROUTINE SORTX
(VAR. I YR)
-c
VAR (50)
SORT
DIMENSTON
LOGICAL
.
TYR (50)
C
C
100 J = 1
SORT = .F.
I = 2, 50
DO 110
IF (VAR (1) .LE. VAR
VARVAR = VAR (I)
IYRIYR = IYR (I)
VAR
(I)
=
VAR
(J))
GO TO
169
(J)
IYP (I) = IYR (J)
VAR (J) = VARVAR
IYR (J) = IYRIYR
SORT = .T.
109
J = J + I
110 CONTINUE
IF (SORT)
GO TO 100
RETURN
END
70132
ASR93.28F
3:15 PM
05/09/71
4 SEC FOR COMPILATION PASS
0 MIN
- 23 CARDS AT 333 CARDS PER MINUTE
936 DIGITS CODE.
118 DIGITS DATA,
COMPILER
007400
007410
007420
007430
007440
007450
007460
007470
007480
007490
007500
007510
007520
007530
007540
007550
007560
007570
007580
007590
007600
007610
SURROUTINE FINDX (AAAA,
IYR,
C
COMMON /PLT/
D I MENS 10 N
ALPHA
1
DATA
(50)
LINE
MAXX
COIN
II,
HA9
ADD. DIV)
# JVAL
MAXX
LINE (101)
AAAA
IPOINT, JYR,
TYR (50)
FILA
* HA
/ 8H*
,
,
FIL8
,
COIN
C
C
100 IF (IPOINT - JVAL )
101 FILA = HA
FIL8 = LINE (JYR)
IF (FILB ,GT. MAX 'X)
CUI N)
IF (FILB .EQ,
LINE (JYR) = FILA
GO
110 IF (II ,EQ, 50)
II = 1 + I
JYR = TYR (II)
.
IPOINT = (AAAA (I I)
GO TO 100
120 IPOINT =
125 RETURN
END
125,
101.
110
FILA = COIN
'FILA = COIN
TO 120
+ ADD) / DIV + 1,0
70132
CfMPILER
ASR#3,28F
3115 PM
05/09/71
5 SEC FOR COMPILATION PASS
.0 MIN
24 CARDS AT 275 CARDS PER MINUTE
1648 DIGITS COMMON.
792 DIGITS COD E,
132 DIGITS DATA,
007620
007630
007640
007650
007660
007670
007680
007690
007700
007710
007720
007730
007740
007750
007760
007770
007780
007790
007800
007810
00782-0
007830
007840
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
.90-SURROUTINE PRNTX
C
,9
BORw (50)
9
BOND (50)
APOP (50)
AAAA
9
9
DFPN (50)
OERX (50)
CHLD (50)
1
I
9
HAND (50)
LRFV (50)
(50)
TNCM
FREV (50)
2
,
9
TNET (50)
TAXR (50)
SREV (50)
3
9
9
TREV (50)
9
TPSX (50)
TUTX (50)
TOTR (50)
4
I
,9
VRES
(50)
VIND
(50)
VCOM (50)
USEC (50)
5
9
XCAP (50)
VIAX (50)
VALC (50)
6
) 9
TDIFF (50) ,
TDEBT (50
7
PCEDU (50 ) ,9 PCREV (50)
(50 ) ,9 tIbOND (50)
STAI
8
nlA, IYR, J , J2 , J3, N
COMMON /JNK/ I PAGE, IV ER, IMOD, IMO,
,
, T MIP4 (50)
TMP3 (50)
(50)
TMP2
TP1 (50)
DIMENSION
,
, T MP8 (50)
TMP7 (.50)
TMP6 (50)
TMP5 ( 5 0)
1
3)
R (40,
A (5j, 3)
2
A
ALPHA
v HAND
INCH
m LREV
REAL
8H
/
DATA A(1,1 ), A(1,2),- A(1,3) / 8HEXPENDIT, 8HURES
8H
/
DATA A(2,1 ), A(2,2), A(2,3) / 8HREVENUES, 8H
/
DATA AC3,1 ), A(3,2), A(3,3) / 8HPROPERTY, 8H VALUATI. 8HON
/
DATA AC4,1 ), A(4,2), A(4,3) / AHBONDTNG , 8HCAPACITY, 8H
/
8HY DESCRI, 8HPTION
DATA A(5#1 ), A(5,2), A(5,3) / 8HCOMMLNTT,
8HNDITURES/
8HION
EXPE,
EDUCAT,
8H
/
B(1,3)
B(1,2).
),
B5(1,1
DATA
/
8H
PROTEC, 8HTION SER, 8HVICES
DATA B(2,1 ), B(2,2)p B(2,3)/
/
8HVICES
SER,
8HBLIC
PU,.
"MTOTAL
/
b(3,3)
),
B(3,2),
DATA B(3#1
/
MANDAT, 8HED COSTS. 8H
DATA B(4,1 ), B(4,2). 2(4,3) / 8H
/
, 8H
DEBT S, 8HERVICE
DATA B(5#1 ), 8(5,2), 8(5,3) / 8H
/
DATA 8(6o1 ), B(6,2), 8(6,3) / 8HTOTAL FX, 8HPE1N4ITUR, 8HES
/
PROPFR, 8HTY TAXES. 8H
DATA B(7,1 ), B(7,2), b(7,3) / 8H
8H
/
v
C.
8HHARGES
USER
8H
),
8(8,2),
B(8,3)
/
DATA 8(891
/
(9,2), B(9,3) / 8HTOTAL LOP 8HCAL REVE, 8HNUES
DATA b1(9,1 ),
8H
/
8HINGS
RORRnW,
8H
DATA B(10, 1),b(10,2),B(10,3)/
8H
/
STATF , 8HGRANTS
8H
DATA B( 11. 1),B(11,2),B(11,3)/
/
FEDEPA, 8HL GRANTS, 8H
DATA B(12, 1 ),b(I?,2),E,(1?,3)/ PH
8H
/
,
8HVENUES
RE.
8HTOTAL
1),B(13,2),B(13,3)/
DATA B(13,
/
8H'ET SURPP 8HLUS OR D 8HFFICIT
DATA B(14, 1),B(14,2),5(14,3)/
/
D,
8HEFICIT
OR
8HLUS
SURP,
15,3)/
8HCUM
1),B(15,2),B(
8(15,
DATA
/
P 8H
8H, RESIOE, 8HNTTAL
DATA 8(16,
/
v 8H
COMMFR, 8HCTAL
DATA 6(17, 1),B(17,?),F(17,3)/ 8H
/
, 8H
TNDUST, 8HRIAL
DATA 8(18, 1),R(18,2).8(18,3)/ 8H
DATA B(19, I ), ( 19,2),p ( 19, 3)/ 8HTOTAL PR. 8HOPERTY V. 8HALUATION/
DAT.A BC20, 1),B(20,?).8(20,3)/ 8HTAX RATE. 8H (PER TH, 8HOUSAND) /
8H
/
DATA B(21, 1),8(21,2)-,b(21,3)/' 8HAVAILARLD 8HE
8H
8H
8HUSFD
DATA B(22p 1),B(22,2),B(22,3)/
8H
8H
/
DATA B(23, 1),.B(232)P(23,3)'# 8h1UNUSED
/
DATA B(24, 1),8(24,2) FB(2 ' 3)/ RHTOTAL PO, 8HPULATION,. 8H0
DEPENo , 8HENCY PAT. 8HIO
DATA 8(25, 1),R(25,2),B(25,3)/. 8H
DATA B(26, 1),H(26,2),P(26,3)/ AHPUJRLIC S, 8HERVICFS , 8H/ CAP I TA/
RHEDUCATTO, 8HN AS % 0, 8HF EXP FND/
DATA B(27, 1),B(27,?),bC27,3)/
DATA 6(28, 1)vB(28,?),B(28,3)/ 8HPROPERTY, 8H TAX AS 9 8HT OF REV/
/
DATA B(29, 1),8(29,2),B(29,3)/ 8HVALUATTO. 8HN PER CA' 8HPITA
LOCAL , 8HINCOME it 8HAXES
/
DATA B(30, 1),B(30,2),B(30,3)/ 8H
/
DATA B(31, 1 )sB(31 v2),B(31 ,3)/ 8HVALUATIOP 8HN PER PU. 8HPIL
8HITURES
/
HIGHWA, 8HY FXPFNU
DATA R(32, 1),8(32,2),b(32,3)/ RH
/
WATER , 8HANO SANI. 8HTATI0N
DATA B(33, 1),B(33,2),8(33,3)/ 8H
/
RECRFAP 8HTION AND. 8H PARKS
DATA H(34, 1),h(34,2),6(34,3)/ PH
/
HOSPTT, 8HALS AND , 8HHEALTH
DATA B(35, 1),B(35,2)pe(35,3)/ RH
PUPLIC, 8H AnMINIS, 8HTRATION /
DATA b(36, 1), 1(36,2),F:(36, 3)/1 PH
OTHER , 8HEXPFNOIT, 8HURFS
nAH
/
DATA B(37, I1 )B 37,?)2 ,b(37,p3)/
GROSS
6HDFNSITY , 8H
DATA b(38, 1),8(38,?),B(38,93)/ RH
DATA B(39, 1),B(39,2),B(39,3)/ 8HSTAiE AI, 8HD % FOR , 8HFDUCAT 'N/
DATA B(40, 1),B(40,2),B(40,3)/ 8HPROTECTI, 6HON AS % , 8HOF EXPND/
COMMON
C
007850
007860
007870
007880
007890
007900
007910
007920
007930
007940
007950
007960
007970
007980
007990
008000
008010
008020
008030
008040
008050
008060
008070
008080
008090
008100
008110
008120
008130
008140
008150
008160
008170
008180
008190
008200
008210
008220
008230
008240
008250
008260
008270
008280
008290
008300
008310
008320
008330
008340
008350
008360
008370
008380
008390
008400
008410
008420
008430
008440
008450
008460
008470
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
910 FORMAT
911 FOPMAT
912 FORMAT
(iHO,
(1 HO,
(1H
29X, 10T10)
5X, 3A8)
10 F1l,1)
7X, 3A~8
P
~c1t
-
C
C
C ***
RETRIEVE PRINT-OUT PARAMETFRS
Il = Ji
12 = -J2
13 = J3
C ***.CALCULATE NUMBER OF YEARS TO PRINT
I = (I? - Il + 13) / 13
C ***
THIS YIELDS
NPAGES = (I
C ***
NOW START PRODUCING OUTPUT
DO 150
1
1 NPAGES
- C ***
WRITE
PAGES
+ 9) /
PAGE
10
HEADINGS
CALL HFADX
14 = i1 + 9 * 13
IF (14 *GT. 12)
C ***
1
100
C
***
IF
C
C
C
14
= 12
J =
Its 14p 13)
EXPENSES
1, 3)
WRITE (6, 911) (A (1,J), J
14, 13
J = 11,
DO 100
READ (1=J+50) TEMP, TMPI (J), TMP2 (J)# TMP3 (J),
TMP4 (J), TMP5 (J)s T MP6 ( J)p TMP7 (J), TMP8 (J)
CONTINUE
Ii, 14,
1 . 3),
WRITE (6, 912) (B (1,J), J
(TMP1 (J),
J
I Ip 14,
1. 3),
WRITE (6, 912) (B (2,J), J
C TMP2 (J),
J
li 14,
WRITE (6, 91?) (B(32,J), J
J
1t 3),
(TMP3 (J),
WRITE (6, 91?) (B 33 J) p J
I Iv 14,
J
1
3),
(TMP4 (J),
1
WRITE (6, 912) (R 34.J), J
3),
I Ip 14,
(TMP5
J
(J),
J
I1, 14,
1, 3),
WRITE (6, 912)
( TMP6 (J),
J
(B(C35J),
WRITE (6, 912) (B(3 6 ,J), J
I1, 14,
1, 3),
J
(TMP7 (J),
(TMP8 (J),
14,
1
J
11,
3),
WRITE (6 912) (BC 37, J) J
I,
14,
1, 3), (TPSX (J),
WRITE (6 912) (B (3,J) , J
J
WRITE (6 912) (B (4,J), J
(MAND (J
I Ip 14,
1, 3),
J
WRITE (6, 912) (B (5,J), J
I,I
14,
1, 3),
(DEBX (J),
J
1. 3),
11,
WRITE (6, 912) (B (6pJ), J
14,
(TOTX (J),
J
REVENUES
WRITE (6. 911)
(A (2,J),
1, 3)
J
1s 3),
(TREV (J), J = It,
14,
WRITE (6, 912) (B (7,J). J
1, 3),
WRITE (6 912) ( B C6,J), J
(USEC (J),
J = I1. 14,
WRITE
(6,
(N
910)
.EQ.
(J,
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
5)
WRITE (6 912) (RC 30 J), J
1
WRITE (6, 912)
1
(9,J), J
1
WRITF (6, 912) (B 10,J), J
1
WRITE (6, 912) (R( 1 1J), J
1
WRITE (6, 912) (RC 12,J),
WRITE (6, 912) (BC 13vJ), J
1
SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
WRITE (6, 911)
WRITE (6, 912) (B(14. J) ,oJ = 1,
WRITE (6, 912) (8C15#J) ,pJ = 1,
PRnPERTY VALUATION
1
WRITF (6, 911) (A C3vJ) ,p J
1
WRITE (6, 912) (BC16,J) ,pJ
WRITE (6, 912) (BC17,J) ,oJ
1
1
WRITE (6o 912) (BC18 J) ,p J
WRITE (6, 912) (8(19,J) ,I J
1
WRITE (6p 912) (8(?0,J) ,pJ
1
BONDINr CAPACITY
WRITE (6v 911) (A (4,J) ,oJ
1.
WRITE (6s 912) (B(?1,J) ,pJ
1,
WRITE (6, 912) (B(22,J) ,pJ
1,
WRITE (6, 912) (R(23pJ) , J
1,
14,
14.
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
(TNET (J),
(TDIFF(J),
J = li1 14,
J = It, 14,
13)
13)
(VRES
(VCOM
(VIND
(VTAX
(TAXR
J
J
J
14,
14,
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
(INCH
3),
3),
3)
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
(LREV
(RORW
(SREV
(FREV
(TOTR
(J),
(J),
(J),
(J),
(J),
(J),
(J)
(J)
(J)
(J)
(J)
3)
3) , (BOND ( J)
3) , (TDEBT( J)
3) ,v (UBONDC J)
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
I
I
I
I
I
I
14,
14,
14,
14,
11
11
14,
14,
13)
13)
13)
13)
13)
11
11
11
14,
14,
14,
13)
13)
13)
I1
I1
11
14,
008480
008490
008500
008510
008520
008530
008540
008550
008560
008570
008580
008590
008600
008610
008620
008630
008640
008650
008660
008670
008680
008690
008700
008710
008720
008730
008740
008750
008760
008770
008780
008790
008800
008810
008820
008830
008840
008850
008860
008870
008880
008890
008900
008910
008920
008930
008940
008950
008960
008970
008980
008990
009000
009010
009020
009030
009040
009050
009060
009070
009080
009090
009100
009110
009120
009130
C'
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
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C
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C
C
C
C
C.
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C
C
C
C
C
COMMUNITY DESCR
WRITE (6, 911)
WRITE (6, 912)J = 11,
DO 140
APOP
TEMP
TMPI (J) =
THP2 (J)
TMP3 (J) =
CONTINUE
140
WRITE (6 912)
WRITE (6, 912)
91?)
WRITE (6s
WRITE (6, 912)
WRITE (6, 912)
WRITE (6, 912)
WRITE (6, 912)
WRITE (6, 912)
WRITE (6 v 912)
11 = I1 + 10 *
150 CONTINUE
RETURN
--END
IPT ION
(A- (5,J),
(R(?4, J),
14,
J
1,
a= J
3)
3),.
(APOP
(J),
j
I ,
14,
13)
13
(J)
TEMP / 10 ,0
IMF? (J) / TOTX
VTAX (J) / TEMP
(B(38,J),
(B(?5 J),
(8C26,J),
(B(27,J),
(B(40,J),
(B(39,J),
(B?8 J),
(RT29,J),
(B(31 vJ),
13
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
J
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
1,
(J)
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
3),
*
100.0
J
J
J
(PCEDU(J), J
J
(TMP2 (J),
J
(STAID(J)
(PCREV( J), J
J
(J),
(TMP3
(J), J
(VALC
(TMPI
(DEPN
(XCAP
(J),
(J)p
(J),
COMPILER
70132
ASR#3,28F
3 :16 PM
05/09/71
0 MIN 35 SEC FOR COMPILATION PASS
152 CARDS AT 255 CARDS PER MINUTE
10208 DIGITS DATA, 22578 DIGITS CODE, 24176 DIGITS COMMON.
II,
1*1'
11'
II,
Ils
II,
II'
II,
II,
14' 13)
14,. 13)
14,
13)
14,
13)
14,
13)
14,
13)
14,
13)
14,
13)
14,
13)
009140
009150
009160
009170
009180
009190
009200
009210
009220
009230
009240
009250
009260
009270
009280
009290
009300
009310
009320
009330
009340
009350
C
C
C
C
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C
C
C
C
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C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
4
6
009360
009370
PORK (50)
,
009360
BOND (50)
COMMON
APOP (50)
AAAA
,9
,9
,
009390
CHLD ( 50)
DFPN (50).
1
DEBX (50)
9
,
- 009400
MAND (50)
INCM (50)
2
FREV ( 50)
LREV (50)
009410
',
9
3
TNET (50)
TAXR (50)
SREV ( 50)
9
,9
009420
TRFV (50)
9
4
TOIR ( 50)
TPSX (50)
TOTX (50)
009430
,9
,9 VIND
VRES (50)
VCOM (50)
(50)
5
USEC (50)
,9
009440
6
XCAP (50)
VALC ( 50)
VTAX (50)
9
009450
7
PCREV (50 )
TOEBT (50) , TDIFF (50)
PCEDU (50)
9
009460
8
U6OND (50 )
1
STAD
(50)
009470
,
MAXX
JVAL
COTM MON /PLT/
LINE ( 101)
9
9
009480
IYRP (50)
IYRR (50)
IYRL (50)
IYRE ( 50)
DIMENS TON
9
009490
IYRA (50)
1
1YRT (50)
IYRX (50)
IYRS C50-)
,9
DASH
,
*
009500
BLNK
F1LB
ALPHA
LINE
009510
BARR
HEHRHLHP HSHTHXPHA
1
PLUSINC H
009520
MAND
REAL
LREV
009530
/
a 8HDATA
RLNK, DASH / 8H
/
009540
PARR, PLUS / 8 H I
,- 8H+
DATA
.009550
/
HE, HR, HL / 8HE
, 8HR
, 8HL
DATA
/
009560
* 8HS
HP, HS, HT / 8HP
,8HT
DATA
/ 8HX
009570
8HA
DATA
HX, HA
/
009580
009590
009600
910 FORMAT (HO,
009610
29X , 20HP = TOTAL POP ULATION, 16X, 18HR = TOTAL REVENUES /
009620
30X , 21HT = PROPER TY TAX RATE, 15X, 22HE
TOTAL EXPENDITUR ES/
2
009630
3
32hL = PROPER TY TAX AS % OF RFVENUE, 4X,
30X
009640
4
34H S = EDUCATION A S % OF EXPENOITURES /
009650
-5
30X , 30HX = PUBLIC SERVICES PER CAPITA, 6X,
009660
29H A =-STATE AID % FOR EDUCATION /
6
009670
9
21H* = COINCI nENT POINTS)
50X
t 8X, 15P 1X, 12A8, A5)
009680
911 FORMAT (1h
009690
912 FORMAT (IH , 14X, 12A8 , A5)
009700
913 FORMAT (1H , 14X, 1HO, 2514).
009710
009720
009730
*** CREATE SEPARATE ARRAYS OF YEARS FOR EACH VARIABLE
009740
J = 1
009750
I = 1 50
DO 100
009760
J = J + 2
009770
IYpE (I) = J
009780
IYRR (I)
J
009790
IYRL (I) = J
009800
IYRP (I) = J
009810
IYRS (I) = J
IYRT (I)
009820
J
IYRX (I)
J
009830
IYRA (I)
009840
J
100 CONTINUE
009850
009860
**
WRITE PAGE HEADING
009870
CALL HFADX
009880
WRITE (6. 910)
***
SORT EACH PAIR OF ARRAYS
009890
CALL.SnRTX (TOTX, IYRE)009900
009910
CALL SnRTX (TOTR, IYRR)
CALL SnRTX (XCAP, IYRX)
609920
CALL SnRTX (APOP, IYRP)
009930
009940
CALL SPRTX (TAXR, IYRT)
IYRS)
CALL SnRTX (PCEDUIJ
009950
009960
CALL SnRTX (PCREV, IYRL)
CALL SORTX (STAID# IYRA)
009970
**
INITIALIZE POINTERS FOP CHARTS
009980
SUBROUTINE PLOTX
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
. 11
mvm
..
,,
IE = 1I
IR = 1
IL = 1
IX = 1I
C ***
C **
108
(
C ***
110
112
115
116
C ***
C.***
C ***
C **
C
C
C
C
C
***
Ip
P
1
IS = 1
IT = 1
IA =
JYRE
TYRE (1)
JYPR
IYRR (1)
JYRL
IYRL (1)
JYRX
IYRX (1)
JYRP
IYRP (1)
JYRS
IYRS (1)
JYRT
IYRT (1)
JYRA
IYRA (1)
+0 1.0
(TTX (1) +- 1 C00 .0) / 2000.0
IEPT
(TOTR (1) + 1000,0) / 2000.0
1.0
IRPT
(XCAP (1) + 10,0) / 20.0 + 1.0
IXPT
(APOP (1) + .1.0) / 2.0 + 1.0
IPPI
+
1,,0) / 2.0 + 1.0
(TAXR
(1)
ITP I
(PCEDU
(1 ) +1.0) / 2.0 + 1.0
ISPT
(PCREV (1 ) + 1.0) / 2.0 + 1.0
ILPT
(STAID (1 ) + 1.0) / 2.0 + 1.0
IAPT
PLOT THE DIFFERENT VARIABLE S
IVAL = 100
I = 1, 51
DO 150
IVAL / 10 * 10
JVAL
IVAL)
Go TO 110
IF (JVAL .EQ,
FILL LINE WITH BLANKS
J = 2. 100
DO 108
LINE (J) = BLNK
CONTINUE
FILB = BARR
ASSIGN 142 TO KK
GO TO 115
FILL LINE WITH DASHES.
FILB = PLUS
ASSIGN 141 TO KK
K = 1
J = 2. 100, 2
DO 112
K = K + 2
= BLNK
LINE (J)
LINE (K) = DASH
.CONTINUE
20
DO 116 J = 1, 1'01
= FILB
LINE (J)
CONTINUE
JVAL = IVAL / 2 + 1
PLOT TOTAL EXPENDITURES
2000.0)
CALL FINDX (TUTX, IYRE, IEPT, -JYRE, IE, HE. 1000.0,
PLOT LOCAL RFVFNUES (AL L SOURCES)
CALL FINOX (TOTR, TYRR, IRPT, JYRR, YR. HR. 1000.0. 2000.0)
PLOT TOTAL PUBLIC SERVI CE EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA
CALL FINOX (XCAP, IYRX, IXPT, JYRX, IX, HX, 10.0, 20.0)
PLOT POPULATION
CALL FINDX (APOP, IYRP, IPPT, JYRP, IP, HP, 1.0, 2.0)
PLnT TAX RATE
1.0, 2.0)
CALL FINOX (TAXR, TYRT, ITPT, JYRT, IT. HT,
PLOT EnUCATION AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL EXPENDITURES
1.0. 2.0)
CALL FINDX (PCFOU, IYRS, ISPT, JYRS, IS, HS,
PLOT PROPERTY TAX AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL REVENUE
CALL FINDX (PCREV, IYRL, ILPT, JYRL, IL, HL, 1.0p 2.0)
PLOT STATE SCHOOL AID PERCENTAGE
CALL FINDX (STAID. IYRA, IAPT, JYRA, IAP HA. 1.0. 2.0)
CRUNCH LINF FOR QUICK I/ 0
009990
010000
010010
010020
010030
010040
010050
010060
010070
010080
010090
010100
010110
010120
010130
010140
010150
010160
010170
010180
010190
010200
010210
010220
010230
010240
010250
010260
010270
010280
010290
010300
010310
010320
010330
010340
010350
010360
010370
010380
010390
010400
010410
010420
010430
010440
010450
010460
010470
010480
010490
010500
010510
010520
010530
010540
010550
010560
010570
010580
010590
010600
010610
010620
010630
010640
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
CALL ALPACK (LINE, LINF, 101)
USF APPROPRI ATE WRITF STATEMENT
GO TO KK, (1 41, 142)
WRITE (6, 91 1) IVAL, (LINE (J), J = 1, 13)
141
GO TO 145
(LINE (J),
J = 1, 13)
WRITE (6, 91
142
C ***
DECREMENT IV
145
IVAL = IVAL
150 CONTIN LIE
C ***
END OF PLOT
WRITE (6, 913) (
I = 2. 50p 2)
RETURN
END
C ***
COMPILER
70132
ASR#3,?BF
*3116 PM
05/09/71
0 MIN'22 SEC FOR COMPILATInN PASS
143 CARDS AT 382 CARDS PER MINUTE
5012 DIGITS CODE, 25664 DIGITS COMMON,
4754 DIGITS DATA,
010650
010660
010670
010680
010690
010700
010710
010720
010730
010740
010750
010760
010770
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
- 96 B.IBLLOGRA 'HY
1.) Bogue, Donald J., "Principles of Demography",
New York (1969), selected tables.
John Wiley and Sons,
2.) Bradford, D.F., R.A. Malt and W.E. Oates, "The Rising Cost of Local
Public Services: Some Evidence and Reflections", National Tax Journal,
XXII, 2, June 1969, pp 185-202.
3.) Break, George F., "Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in the United
States", The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (1967).
4.) Forrester, Jay W., "Urban Dynamics", MIT Press, Cambridge (1969).
5.) Hamilton, H.R., S.E. Goldstone, et.al., "Systems Simulation For
Regional Analysis: An Application to River-Basin Planning", MIT Press,
Cambridge (1969).
6.) Kilbridge, M.D., R.P. O'Block and P.V. Teplitz, "A Conceptual
Framework for Urban Planning Models", Management Science, XV, 6,
February 1969, pp. 246-266.
7.) Lowry, Ira, "A Short Course in Model Design", P-3114, The RAND Corp.,
(1969)
8.), ----- "Seven Models for Urban Development:
Highway. Review Board, June 1967.
A Structural Comparison",
9.) Maxwell, James A., "Financing State and Local Governments", The
Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. (1969).
10.) Netzer, Dick, "Economics of the Property Tax", The Brookings Institution,
Washington, D.C. (1966).
11.) Weiss, Steve, "The Need for Change in State Public School Finance
Systems", New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
January/February 1970, pp. 3-22.
12.) "Financing State and Local Governments", Proceedings of the Monetary
Conference at Nantucket Island, Massachuesetts, Federal Reserve Bank of
Boston, 1970.
13.) "State Aid to Cities and Towns in Massachusetts", League of Women
Voters of Massachusetts (1970).
14.) "State Aid to Local Governments in Massachusetts", The First National
Bank of Boston, Municipal Securities Department (1969).
- 97 15.) The Annual Reports or Town Budgets from tie following Massachusetts
(unless otherwise noted) cities, and towns:
Town of Arlington, 1969
1970
Town of Brookline, 1969
City of Medford, 1970
City of Malden, 1970
City of Everett, 1969
City of Columbus, Georgia, 1970-71.