World Food Supply and Demand
for the Next Half-Century
Some Alternative Scenarios
Text extracted from
The World Food Problem
Leathers and Foster, 2004
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Apocalypse Now?
• Famine is one of the
Four Horsemen of the
Apocalypse
– (War, Famine, Pestilence, Death)
• What will the future be?
– Will the progress of the last 30
years continue?
– Or are we on the brink of
catastrophe?
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The 6 “P”s
• Major factors:
–
–
–
–
Population
Prosperity
Productivity
Pollution
• Interplay of these will
determine:
– Price of food
Jeffrey Sachs, Director of UN
Millennium Development Project
http://www.who.int/multimedia/wha55/jeffrey_sachs/sachs0003.jpg
• Humanity’s hope to influence
the future:
– Policy
Two Views of the Future
• Establishment view
– FAO
– World Bank
– International Food Price
Institute
– U.S. Department of
Agriculture
• Antiestablishment View
– David Pimentel, Cornell
University
– World Watch Institute
Per Pinstrup-Anderson, International
Food Price Research Institute
http://www.innovations-report.de/bilder_neu/4726_perpinan.jpg
Establishment View
• World Agriculture production
continues to grow
• World population growing more
slowly
• Income/person continues to grow
• Thus no catastrophic changes
• Confidence in technology of the
future
• Policies need to support progress
• Future generations will be more
prosperous
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Antiestablishment View
• Possibility of environmental catastrophe
–
–
–
–
Erosion
Land degradation
Water shortage for irrigation
Rising sea levels from global warming
• Continued slow yield growth
– Pessimistic about technology
• Sweeping policy changes needed
– Radical economic and political restructuring
• Future generations will suffer
– We are “eating the seed”
– Need radical reduction in consumption
http://vikkianderson.com/Tarot/MajorArcana.html
Establishment View Scenario
50 Years From Now
• Population 60% higher
• Average income will double
– Calories/capita will increase by 15%
– More meat
• Total food demand will increase
by 108%
• Total food supply will increase by
110%
Family meal, Brazil
– Ag land increases 13%
– Yields increase 86%
• Undernutrition will decline
– Incomes higher, prices lower
http://www.fmpsd.ab.ca/schools/df/Brazil/keatingfood.htm
If Assumptions Change
• If lower population growth:
– 74% increase in food
– 72% price decline!
• If higher population growth or
lower yield growth:
–
–
–
–
German Pastries
http://www.liebenau.net/szraaba/dorffaschzkz.htm
Demand rises faster than supply
Prices rise substantially
But incomes rise more than prices
Modest increase in calories/person
Antiestablishment View Scenario
50 Years From Now
• Same increase in population
(60%)
• Less increase in income (28%)
• Increase in per capita food
demand of 4%
• Total food demand increases 70%
• Total food supply will decline 6%
– 15% decrease in ag land
– Small increase in yields/hectare
Orphanage, Nicaragua
http://www.chrf.org/popup/images/nic1.jpg
• Price of food rises 110%
• Undernutrition increases
substantially
If Assumptions Change
• If population grows more rapidly
and income is stagnant
– Population increases 120%
– Income growth is 0
• Food prices increase 181%
• Calories/capita 2,256
– Lower than Africa today
• Widespread undernutrition
• If yields grow a little more strongly
– Catastrophe averted
– Slight decline in calories/person
http://membres.lycos.fr/speedyz/billets/images/malnutrition.jpg
Policy Agreement
• Reduce population growth rate
– Promote economic prosperity, health, and
education
• Invest in agricultural productivity
– Research, extension, credit, markets
• Protect soil and water resources
– Assign property rights
• Gives resource owners a stake in
environmental protection
• Encourage economic growth among
the poorest
Farmer, Zambia
http://www.fao.org/News/2001/img/zambia.jpg
– Macroeconomic policies, competitive
markets, human capital
The unfinished task
• “It is for us, the living,
to be dedicated to the
unfinished task”
– Abraham Lincoln
• Gettysburg Address
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