UNCTAD
Multi-Year Expert Meeting on Commodities
and Development 2013
Recent developments and new challenges in commodity markets, and policy
options for commodity-based inclusive growth and sustainable development
Room XXVI
Palais des Nations
Geneva, Switzerland
Food commodity markets – trends and future challenges
Boubaker Ben-Belhassen
Trade and Markets Division, FAO
20 MARCH 2013
This material has been reproduced in the language and form as it was provided. The views expressed are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD.
Food commodity markets –
trends and future challenges
Boubaker Ben-Belhassen
Trade and Markets Division, FAO
UNCTAD, 20 March 2013
Outline
• High vs. volatile prices –causes and effects
• Medium-term market outlook
• Key messages and future challenges
• AMIS –what and what not
2
FAO Food Price Index, 2002-2004=100
Food prices –FAO Food Price Index more
than doubled from 2002 to 2012
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Food Price Index
Cereals
Meat
Dairy
3
Why are food prices high and volatile?
Why prices are high
Market fundamentals – S&D
• Strong growth in demand:
emerging economies,
population growth, changing
diets, biofuels
• Weak growth in production:
slowdown in yield growth,
high petroleum prices,
natural resources constraints
(land, water)
• Low stocks
Why prices are volatile
• Production variability, due to
weather and climate change
• Increasing trade role by less
resilient regions/countries
• Low stock levels
• Growing links with energy
and financial markets
• Policy impacts and panic
• Macroeconomic factors
(exchange rates, interest
rates)
4
The importance of stocks, PQ space
Price
Without stocks
Demand for consumption
When stocks are low, prices
become very sensitive to shocks
in supply
Different impact
on prices
Market demand, inclusive of
storage
With stocks
Quantity
Source: Brian Wright
Equivalent shocks
5
Why food prices matter?
• Food security
• Agricultural development (uncertainty, suboptimal investment)
• Economic growth and development
• Macroeconomic stability (inflation, exchange
reserves, government budgets)
• Political and social stability
6
billion US$
Food imports bills –more than doubled for
developing countries since 2005
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
$427 billion
$235 billion
$200 billion
$75 billion
Developing countries
LIFDCs
7
A look at the current situation..
Cereal production,
utilization and stocks
Wheat production,
utilization and stocks
8
A look at the current situation..
Coarse grain production,
utilization and stocks
Rice production, utilization
and stocks
9
A look at the medium term..
• OECD-FAO Agricultural
Outlook, 2012 edition
• Integrated system of partial
equilibrium models of the
main food commodities
• Combining model-generated
projections and expert
knowledge
• Assumptions: population,
macroeconomics, policy, and
weather
10
World GDP growth assumptions –
a multispeed world
11
World population –rapidly populating cities
12
Per capita consumption growth –flat to falling
in developed countries, rising elsewhere
1.40
2000 = 1
1.35
1.30
N. America
1.25
W.Europe
1.20
N.Afr&ME
1.15
Asia
1.10
L. America
1.05
E.Europe&C.Asia
1.00
SSA
0.95
0.90
Index based on constant 2004-06 dollars
13
Shift in global consumption from staple foods to
value-added products continues
14
Global ethanol and biodiesel production to
almost double in the next decade
15
Agricultural production: growth to slow
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2011-20
All Agriculture
Production
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.6
1.7
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.5
2.6
1.7
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.2
1.8
Crops
Production
Livestock
Production
16
Agricultural production index
Growth dominated by Latin America, slowest is W. Europe
2
Index, 2000 = 1
1.8
1.6
1.4
W. Europe
L. America
MENA
SSA
N. America
1.2
1
E. Eur & C. Asia
Other Asia
0.8
0.6
17
Trade patterns: Latin America largest net
exporter, Asia largest net importer
Billions constant US, $2004-06
50
40
L.America
30
N.America
20
Other Asia
10
MENA
0
-10
SS Africa
-20
E.Europe&C.Asia
-30
W.Europe
-40
Oceania
-50
18
Real crop prices down from recent peaks,
but to stay on a higher plateau
19
Key messages
• Production growth slowing in developed countries, growing
faster in developing countries
• Consumption patterns changing rapidly
• Food security remains first concern
– Repeated price spike risks remain high
– International policy coherence is increasingly important
• Are we on track to feed the world?
– Higher and more volatile prices indicate need for change
– Investment in agriculture, higher productivity and sustainability are
the viable policy response
• Price incentives for investment in agriculture have increased
• Emerging Issues:
– Confidence in markets, market transparency, policy responses,
supply-side constraints, sustainability
20
How can we eradicate hunger?
• Link hunger eradication to poverty eradication
• Achieve sustainable intensification of agriculture (FAO’s
“Save and Grow” paradigm)
• Reduce food losses and waste
• Boost investment in agriculture
• Put smallholders at the centre of action
• Put in place effective food governance and trading
systems (policies and institutions)
• Build effective partnerships
• Create markets that are transparent, efficient and
inclusive
21
Thank you for your attention!
UN Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO)