Belize
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I.
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
(1)
OVERVIEW
1.
Belize's real GDP grew at an annual average rate of 7.2% between 1997 and 2003 in spite of
repeated adverse weather and varying market conditions. The macroeconomic policies that
underpinned such growth, however, appear to be unsustainable. Recent growth has been mostly due
to export increases and expansionary fiscal policies. The latter resulted in an expansion of the public
and publicly guaranteed debt to 90.4% of GDP. The current account deficit has fallen but remains
high and, because it has been financed mostly by official debt, it creates the risk of a balance-ofpayment crisis. Recent tightening of fiscal and monetary policy is thus appropriate in the short-run,
while further fiscal and structural reforms would help ensure the sustainability of macroeconomic
policies in the long-run.
(2)
RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
(i)
Structure of the economy
2.
Belize's total area comprises 22,963 square kilometres. Of these, an estimated 17% is arable.
Total population reached 273,000 in 2003, having expanded at an annual average rate of 2.9% since
1991 (Table I.1). In 2003, almost half of the population resided in urban areas; approximately 30%
was concentrated in the Belize District, thus making it the country’s largest district population wise.
The average age was 18.9 years in 2002. At 11.5 persons per square kilometre, population density is
the lowest in Central America, and in CARICOM, excluding Guyana and Suriname. Belize's
measured income per capita was US$3,646 in 2003 (Table I.1). In 2002, 33.5% of population and
24.5% of households lived below the poverty line, whilst 10.8% of the population was considered in
great poverty.1
Table I.1
Basic economic indicators, 1997-02
(BS$ million, US$, and per cent)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Current GDP (BZ$ million)
1,308.8
1,377.8
1,464.7
1,663.5
1,734.8
1,851.9
1,976.8
Current GDP (US$ million)
654.4
688.9
732.35
831.75
867.4
925.95
988.4
Per capita GDP (US$)
2,269
2,895
3,014
3,330
3,398
3,525
3,646
1,313.7
1,362.2
1,481.8
1,663.5
1,744.9
1,819.1
1,989.8
3.6
3.7
8.8
12.3
4.9
4.3
9.4
Private consumption
994.9
1,067.1
1,133.5
1,244.7
1,354.8
1,461.6
1,527.1
Public consumption
190.2
197.5
197.9
215.3
229.3
264.7
284.3
Capital formation (including changes in
inventories)
264.0
262.8
360.3
532.9
430.7
443.6
405.4
Exports
690.7
724.6
806.8
869.2
887.0
980.3
1,101.2
729.0
784.5
987.1
1,226.0
1,204.9
1,233.4
1,316.9
-101.9
-89.6
-46.8
27.6
37.8
-64.9
-24.3
I.
2003
GDP
GDP at 2000 constant prices (BZ$ million)
Real GDP, growth rate (%)
GDP by expenditure (BZ$ million)
Imports
Statistical discrepancy
Table I.1 (cont'd)
1
Central Statistical Office online information. Available at: http://www.cso.gov.bz. The poverty line
was estimated to be at an annual US$644 per capita.
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Trade Policy Review
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Income
314.5
368.3
418.3
431.8
413.4
498.1
n.a.
Expenditure
331.0
385.4
487.8
534.7
623.1
586.0
n.a.
Overall balance
-16.5
-17.1
-69.5
-102.9
-209.7
-87.9.
n.a.
III. Memo items
Population (million)
0.23
0.24
0.24
0.25
0.26
0.26
0.27
Net international reserves by the Central Bank
(US$ million)
55.9
42.3
70.1
122.0
110.9
111.2
81.7
Debt disbursement to Belize (US$ million)
47.0
32.4
45.6
204.7
109.9
241.1
251.6
7.2
4.7
6.2
24.6
12.7
26.0
25.5
30.7
33.2
33.8
43.1
68.0
75.2
84.0
4.7
4.8
4.4
5.2
7.9
8.1
8.5
II. Fiscal indicators (BZ$ million)
Public disbursement on external debt (as a
percentage of GDP)
External public debt servicing (US$ million)
External public debt servicing (as a percentage
of GDP)
n.a.
Not applicable.
Note:
Fiscal indicators are measured for the fiscal year of April-March of that year.
Source: Data provided by the Central Bank of Belize; IDB (2002), Belize Fiscal Study, September; and IMF (2002), Staff
Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation, Statistical Appendix.
3.
Services represent the biggest sector in the Belizean economy, accounting for about 59% of
GDP (Table I.2) (for national accounts purposes, services includes the public sector).2 Historically,
the two most important activities in Belize had been forestry and agriculture. Forestry declined
during the 1950s while agriculture has become the main non-service activity. Fishing, agriculture and
forestry account for a combined 14% of GDP. During 1997-03, the fishing sector grew at an annual
average of 26.5% in real terms whilst agriculture and forestry grew at an annual average of 4.5%.
Construction also experienced robust growth, at an annual average growth rate of 6.1%.
Table I.2
Structure of GDP 1997-03
(% of current GDP)
Agriculture and forestry
Fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity and water supply
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade, repairs
Hotels and restaurants
Transport, and communication
Financial intermediation (less financial services
measured indirectly)
Real estate, renting and business services
Community, social and personal services
General government services
Taxes less subsidies on products
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
12.5
2.4
0.5
9.6
3.4
4.0
15.3
3.1
8.4
11.5
2.8
0.5
9.4
3.7
3.7
15.4
3.4
8.3
11.6
3.4
0.5
9.0
3.2
4.0
16.1
3.6
8.7
11.1
3.7
0.5
9.6
3.4
5.0
16.3
3.5
8.5
9.6
3.4
0.5
9.0
3.5
4.7
16.6
3.9
9.2
9.3
3.4
0.5
8.5
3.3
4.7
16.3
3.7
10.1
9.2
5.0
0.5
8.2
3.1
3.9
16.0
4.0
9.3
2.3
7.0
6.8
10.5
14.1
2.6
6.6
6.8
10.7
14.7
3.2
6.8
6.6
10.4
12.8
3.9
5.9
6.1
9.9
12.5
3.3
6.5
6.1
10.1
13.7
3.3
6.7
5.9
10.0
14.2
3.8
7.0
6.1
10.3
13.8
Source: Data provided by the Central Bank of Belize.
4.
Belize is a small economy. Table I.3 summarizes some of the main indicators for small
2
Central Statistical Office.
Belize
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economies as estimated by the WTO Secretariat.3 Belize has a small territorial extension and
population. In terms of GDP, at least six CARICOM members have smaller economies than Belize.
Notwithstanding its small size, Belize's real GDP growth has been higher than in most other countries
in CARICOM or Central America.
Table I.3
Small economy indicators, 2000
Belize
Population '000
CARICOM
Central America
Small economies
240
41-7,959
240-11,385
32-1,369
Land area (sq. km.)
22,800
340-196,850
20,720-121,400
160-42,270
% share of trade in
GDP
55.2
24.1-102.9
24.7-60.6
21.9-106.5
GDP (PPP $ million)
1,346
268-11,677
1,346-43,501
268-13,780
Ave. GDP per capital
growth
2.7
-2.0-5.2
-1.6-1.1
-4.6-6.0
Volatility of GDP
4.6
3.6-8.3
2.4-5.0
1.6-9.4
0.006
0.002-0.055
0.006-0.115
0.001-0.083
Concentration of first
export item
31.8 (travel)
19.4 (sugar &
honey)
-72.9 (travel)
18.7 (coffee &
substitutes)
-32.9 (coffee &
substitutes)
17.4 (transport)
-72.9 (travel)
Transport costs c.i.f.f.o.b.
10.0%
10.0%-15.0%
10.0%-20.0%
1.4%-33.8%
Share in WTO trade
Note:
Apart from Belize's, all data represent ranges.
Only WTO members countries are considered.
CARICOM includes: St. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia,
Belize, Barbados, Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica and Haiti.
Central America includes: Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Belize, Costa Rica and Panama.
Average growth in GDP per capita refers to the years 1980-00 and is expressed in PPP (current international US$).
Small economies are defined as countries with a population less than 1.5 million. Belize is also part of this category.
First Export Items can be commodities or services.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2002 and WTO Secretariat.
5.
Trade is an important component of Belize's GDP (section (ii) below): imports supply most
of the manufactured products consumed. Belize's exports are relatively diversified by regional
standards but the authorities note that exports remain concentrated in traditional agricultural products
to preferential markets. Although transportation costs for Belize are amongst the lowest in both
CARICOM and Central America, and appear to have fallen over the last decade, the authorities
indicate that transportation rates have posed severe constraints on exports. Volatility of GDP in
Belize is one of the lowest in CARICOM but amongst the highest in Central America. Like other
countries in the region, Belize is vulnerable to the effects of natural disasters.
6.
The economy experienced solid growth as real GDP grew at an annual average of 7.2%
during 1997-03.4 All the available data place Belize's economy amongst the fastest growing in the
Western Hemisphere, although growth estimates from international organizations tend to be slightly
lower in some years.5 In this respect, the Belizean authorities have been making efforts to improve
the quality and timeliness of macroeconomic data, which until recently hindered the monitoring of
economic developments.
7.
Over 1997-03, economic activity was sustained by investment spending, with export growth
3
WTO documents WT/COMTD/SE/W/4, WT/COMTD/SE/W/5, WT/COMTD/SE/W/6.
Central Statistical Office.
5
See IMF (2002a), IMF (2004), (forthcoming), and ECLAC.
4
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Trade Policy Review
also playing a key role (Table I.1). The share of both private and public consumption in GDP has
remained relatively stable since 1997. After a slowdown in 2001 and 2002, preliminary data for 2003
indicate a strong recovery in real GDP growth, to 9.4%6, as exports reported a 20.4% real growth and
imports grew at a lower rate than the previous year. Both gross capital formation as well as
inventories continued to contract over 2000-03. The authorities note that in 2003, private
consumption contracted as a share in GDP while public consumption increased slightly.
(ii)
Production and employment
8.
According to the latest information available from the Labour Force Survey, Belize's labour
force grew at an annual average rate of 3.1% to 94,172 between 1997 and 2002.7 The participation
rate decreased slightly to 57.3 in 1999. The unemployment rate remained relatively high, fluctuating
between 12.5% and 14.3% during the same period.
9.
As noted, trade has an important role in Belize's economy: exports of goods and services as a
share of GDP, increased from 52.8% in 1997 to 55.7% in 2003; imports increased from 55.7% to
66.6% during the same period. Most of Belize's merchandise exports are agricultural products,
notably sugar, bananas, citrus products, and shrimp; several of Belize's main export products rely on
preferential access to the European Union or the United States (see Chapter I(3)(i) below, and
Chapter II(4)).
(iii)
Fiscal policy
10.
Belize's main policy objective is to reduce the level of poverty by half by 2015. The Ministry
of Finance is responsible for formulating and executing fiscal policy.8 In 2004, the Government
stated its intention to amend Belize's tax base and provide further exemptions from the sales tax to
some import products. Economic growth in the late 1990s came hand in hand with fiscal
expansionary policies (Table I.1). In particular, the Development Finance Corporation (DFC)
provided loans on favourable conditions for housing construction, small farmers, and professional
services. DFC financing, however, was greatly curtailed by the end of 2001 although it continued in
2003.
11.
Rapid growth in 2000 was associated with an increase in capital formation of 30.9% and in
public consumption of 7.3%, both significantly higher rates than in previous years (with the exception
of capital formation, which was 36.9% in 1999). Between 1998 and 2001, capital expenditure grew at
significantly higher rates than total fiscal revenues, an average of 39.5% compared with an average of
7.4% (Table I.4). In 2001, current expenditure grew at close to 20%, though revenues decreased by
4.3%. The share of revenues as a percentage of GDP remained stable during the 1997-01 period, at
25.8% on average. The sales tax and the business tax represented 37.6% of total revenue in 2001. No
fiscal data were available after 2001 but there are indications that in 2002 and 2003 revenue and
current expenditures by the Central Government remained constant relative to GDP, while capital
expenditures were reduced; thus, the overall balance should have fallen slightly.
12.
Belize's tax system collects around 22% of GDP although its tax base is narrowed by existing
export processing zones and commercial free zones.9 International trade generates approximately
36% of total fiscal revenue, which is equivalent to 8% of GDP. In 2001, the sales tax and import
duties generated the highest revenue with 5.1% and 3.7% of GDP respectively. Import duties and the
6
Other estimates of real GDP growth are substantially lower.
The Labour Force Survey is available online from the Central Statistical Office at: www.cso.gov.bz.
8
Central Bank of Belize (2003).
9
Inter-American Development Bank (2002).
7
Belize
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Revenue Replacement Duty (RRD) (see Chapter III(2)(iii)) are the two most important sources of
trade-related revenue as they generate approximately 16.9% and 16.5% of total recurrent revenues
respectively. Belize applies exemptions for certain products from either the sales tax, import duties,
RRD or the environmental tax (see Chapter III(2)(iv)).
Table I.4
Financial accounts of the Central Government, 1997-01
(US$ million)
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
157.2
184.2
209.1
215.9
206.7
249.0
144.4
152.5
167.0
168.1
187.1
205.8
126.1
133.0
127.5
148.0
165.6
180.0
27.9
33.0
32.3
38.1
38.6
39.5
Personal tax
13.5
10.9
6.6
9.1
10.5
10.8
Business income/business tax
11.7
19.7
24.2
27.5
27.3
26.3
2.6
2.5
1.5
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.3
52.8
53.7
44.4
54.9
58.5
56.8
38.0
37.1
-2.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
-
-
34.3
40.8
43.1
44.6
8.5
9.3
3.4
4.0
4.3
-
Revenue
Current revenue
Tax revenue
Income tax
Arrears
Taxes on property
Taxes on goods and services
Value Added Tax
Sales tax
Excise duty
6.3
7.2
8.8
9.9
11.1
11.2
Foreign trade
Other
44.6
45.5
49.8
53.9
67.1
82.5
Import duty
26.2
25.7
29.4
31.6
31.3
37.7
Revenue replacement duty
18.1
19.6
19.9
19.4
30.6
37.4
-
-
-
-
2.1
-
0.2
0.2
0.5
2.9
3.1
7.4
18.3
19.5
39.5
20.1
21.5
25.9
Licences
2.5
2.8
4.4
3.6
3.7
4.5
Rent and royalties
2.0
2.1
2.9
2.7
2.6
3.4
Ministries
5.8
5.8
8.9
9.2
9.1
8.8
Transfers
2.5
3.1
8.6
1.3
2.5
0.3
Other
5.5
5.8
14.7
3.3
3.6
8.9
Grants
12.8
31.7
42.1
47.8
19.6
9.5
Expenditure
165.5
192.7
243.9
267.4
311.6
293.0
Current expenditure
126.4
132.5
145.6
148.1
169.1
176.1
Capital expenditure
39.2
60.3
98.3
119.3
142.5
116.9
Gross surplus (revenue less expenditure)
-8.3
-8.5
-34.8
-51.5
-104.9
-44.0
-0.01
-0.01
-0.05
-0.06
-0.12
-0.02
Environment tax
Other
Non-tax revenue
Gross surplus as a percentage of GDP
Note:
The years represent fiscal years.
-
Zero.
Source: Data on expenditure provided by the Central Bank of Belize;
Development Bank.
and data on revenues from Inter-American
13.
During the 1990s, Belize implemented several tax reforms; chief amongst them was the
substitution of the value-added tax by a sales tax levied at the importer level in 1999.
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(iv)
Trade Policy Review
Monetary and exchange rate policy
14.
The legislation that governs the formulation and implementation of monetary policy in Belize
is the Central Bank of Belize Act, Cap. 262, 2003, and the Central Bank of Belize Act, Subsidiary
Law, Cap. 262, 2003. Under these, a fixed exchange rate of two Belizean dollars to one U.S. dollars,
is established.
15.
The Central Bank is defined as "an autonomous institution" with the objectives of promoting
the stability of the exchange rate and of "credit and exchange conducive to the growth of the
economy". The Central Bank's policy-making body is its Board of Directors, presided over by a
Chairman appointed by the Minister. The Central Bank acts as a financial intermediary on behalf of
the Government in any transaction, international commitment, agreement with international
institutions or administrative matter that it might engage in.
16.
The Central Bank's instruments of monetary policy are, in the following order: management
of reserve requirements by banks operating in Belize, control of interest rates, and control of credit.10
According to the authorities, the Central Bank has not used controls on either credit or interest rates
apart from setting a minimum interest rate of 4.5% on savings deposits. As at March 2004, the cash
reserve requirement was set at 6% across the board (see below) for demand, savings, and time
deposits. A secondary reserve requirement is maintained at 19% of approved liquid assets, including
cash reserves of 6% and the remainder consisting of assets that should be readily convertible into
cash, and treasury notes purchased with foreign currency. The Central Bank of Belize Act limits the
rise, or fall, in the reserve requirements at any time to 2% within a month and provides a 30-day
notice period. Changes in the secondary reserve requirement are limited to 5% in any 30-day period
and requires a 30-day notice period.
17.
Belize's main recurrent foreign exchange sources are agricultural exports and tourism; the
Central Bank may impose a surrender requirement to the sugar industry. The authorities note that
foreign exchange is restricted. In most cases, "the Central Bank rations its sales of foreign exchange
to commercial banks on an ad hoc basis", the exception being essential imports such as medicines and
fuel.11 Banks must have approval from the Central Bank to open an account in foreign denominations.
The authorities note that the Central Bank can revoke such approval if the need warrants. If an
account in a foreign denomination is opened outside an EPZ or a CFZ then only Belizean dollars can
be withdrawn.
18.
Belize's inflation rate has been historically low by international standards. Between 1997 and
2001 inflation averaged 0.1% and showed a marked deflationary tendency up to 1999 (Table I.5).
From 1998 to 2001, clothing and footwear experienced the sharpest decrease in prices, i.e. negative
3.6% average inflation, whilst transport and telecommunication and food and beverages remained
approximately constant. The authorities have attributed the control of the inflation rate to the pegged
exchange rate regime.12 As Belize imports most of the products that it consumes, the combination of
a pegged exchange rate with tariff reductions (see Chapter III(2)(iii)) has allowed recent trends in
world prices to underpin the low inflation experienced in recent years. Estimates show that the terms
of trade remained relatively stable in 2002 and 2003.
19.
Increased lending during 2000 and 2001 increased liquidity and contributed to an upsurge in
imports, which led to a decline in net international reserves during 2000-03 (Table I.1) and downward
pressure on the exchange rate. A parallel market in foreign exchange emerged, which the authorities
10
Central Bank of Belize online information. Available at: http://www.centralbank.org.bz.
IMF (2001).
12
IMF (2002a).
11
Belize
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tried to bring into the formal economy by creating the "Casas de Cambio" or foreign exchange
bureaux. Some portions of the parallel market remain unregulated. The spread between the official
and parallel exchange rates reached almost 15% in 2001 before the authorities legalized the Casas de
Cambios regime.13 The authorities note that the effect of the legalization was, however, short-lived
and the parallel market trading rate quickly rose significantly above the 7.5% ceiling set for the
Cambios by legislation.14
Table I.5
Main monetary indicators 1997-02
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
M1 money supply
186.0
206.1
255.1
M2 money supply
710.1
767.4
840.2
310.2
364.8
358.1
965.9
1,040.8
1,064
737.1
840.4
885.2
1,083.1
1,318.7
..
Deposit rate (annual average)a
6.63b
6.35b
5.80b
5.30
4.30
4.33
average)a
16.30b
16.48b
16.28b
15.98
15.40
14.82
1.03
-0.87
-1.21
0.61
1.16
..
2
2
2
2
2
2
104.2
104.5
101.6
106.6
105.0
..
92.2
100
87.5
78.2
76.6
..
Money and credit (BZ$ million)
Domestic
Interest
credita
ratesa
Lending rate (annual
Inflation
Consumer price index (average % change)
Exchange rate
Exchange rate, pegged (US$/BZ$)
Real effective exchange rate index (1995 =
Terms of trade (1998 =
100)b
..
Not available.
a
b
Weighted annual average.
IMF estimates.
100)b
Source: Data provided by the Central Bank of Belize and the IMF.
20.
The cost of credit decreased after 1998 although the spread remained relatively high
(Table I.5). In October 2002, cash reserve requirements had been harmonized across all deposits at
6%. Excess liquidity fell from US$60.9 million in December 2001 to US$25.6 million by the end of
November 2002. This mopped up excess liquidity in the system and thus eliminated some pressure
from the exchange rate. Although prior to this the real effective exchange rate had increased, in 2003
it experienced a reduction of over 5%. In 2003, net international reserves amounted to
US$81.7 million (Table I.1)
21.
Between 1997 and 2000, average interest rates decreased slightly, from 6.6% at the beginning
of 1997 to 5.0% at the end of 2000 on deposits, and from 16.1% to 15.8% on loans. Since 2000, these
averages have continued to decrease, to 4.5% and 14.5% by the end of 2002 for deposits and loans
respectively. Scarce access to long-term financing is seen as possibly the most important constraint
limiting Belize's growth and competitiveness in world markets (Chapter IV((5)(ii)).
13
IMF (2002a).
The regulation allows Casas de Cambios a maximum service fee of 6.5% on sales of foreign
currency. This, along with stamp duty of 1.25%, places a ceiling of 7.5% above the official exchange rate on
foreign exchange sales.
14
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(v)
Trade Policy Review
Balance of payments and external debt
22.
Expansionary fiscal policies have increased the current account deficit, which reached 21.5%
of GDP in 2001 but was reduced to 17.7% of GDP in 2002. The current account deficit grew
consistently from 1997 until 2001, with 2000 showing the greatest increase. Belize's trade balance
was also consistently negative during the period 1997-02. A significant increase in the deficit was
recorded in 2000 reflecting the expansion in fiscal policies the previous year. Over 1997-02, imported
goods grew faster than exports, which declined in 2001 reflecting the effects of hurricanes on exports
crops. The trade balance deficit reached 24.5% and 20.3% of GDP in 2001 and 2002, respectively.
23.
The service balance was consistently positive as tourist-related services continued to expand.
Transportation increased at an annual average rate of 26% between 1997 and 2002. Travel services
also expanded at an annual average rate of 6% during this period. Net current transfers declined from
2000 to 2002, to US$46.6 million or 5% of GDP.
24.
The capital and financial account was positive during 1997-02. During 1999-00, it increased
more than twofold as the financial account experienced significant growth while the capital account
remained small. Increases in direct investment and portfolio liabilities during 1999-00 underpinned
much of the growth in the financial account. Liabilities other than portfolio increased more than
fivefold in 2000. Direct investment and liabilities (portfolio and otherwise) together increased their
share of GDP from 3.7% in 1998 to 30.7% in 2000. The authorities note that the increase in liabilities
over this period was mostly attributed to the start of the mortgage securitization programme with the
bulk of monies received during 1999 and 2000, and an increase in external borrowings by the public
sector through loans and issuance of two external bonds in 2000.
25.
The deficit in the current account has been partly financed with the surplus generated through
both capital and financial account. The balance of payment showed a positive overall balance in
1999, when the finance account increased sharply (Table I.6). External borrowing was a significant
source of financing for the current account.
26.
Belize refinanced its external debt in part through a bond issue of US$125 million in 2001.
Belize issued further bonds in 2003 with additional guarantees for investors. These guarantees are
contained in the Collective Action Clauses (CACs), which Belize granted in 2003. In case of default,
before or after it takes place, qualified majorities or issuing governments may impose restructuring
conditions upon the rest of the bond holders. Also, a dispute settlement process is provided by the
CACs.15
27.
Belize also has a relatively high level of domestic debt. The Central Government's domestic
debt rose to US$64.7 million in 2003 after a decrease by -76% in 2002; this meant an increase from
1.7% of GDP to 6.7%.
28.
Public and publicly guaranteed external debt rose by 18.9% in 2002, to US$767.1 million,
equivalent to 82.8% of GDP. Total public external debt service amounted to US$174.4 million in
2002 (including US$99.2 million for debt refinancing), up from US$65.2 million in the previous year.
Since 2000, most of Belize's external debt has been serviced by private loan creditors, 85% of it in
2002. Dependency on bilateral and multilateral international creditors has been reduced since 1999;
in 2002, about half of total debt originated in bilateral and multilateral agencies and the rest was
through private suppliers. By the end of 2003, public and publicly guaranteed external debt stood at
US$891.8 million, or 90.4% of GDP. Public external debt service amounted to US$122.5 million
(including debt refinancing of US$38.5 million), a decrease of 30.0% from the year before.
15
ECLAC (2003).
Belize
WT/TPR/S/134
Page 9
Table I.6
Balance of payments, 1997-02
(US$ million)
Current account
Trade balance
Goods: exports f.o.b.
Goods: imports f.o.b.
Services: credit
Transportation
Travel
Other services
Services: debit
Transportation
Travel
Other services
Balance on goods & services
Income: credit
Compensation of employees
Investment income
Income: debit
Compensation of employees
Investment income
Balance on goods, services & income
Current transfers: credit
Current transfers: debit
Capital + financial accounts: net
Capital account
Capital account: credit
Capital account: debit
Financial account
Direct investment abroad
Direct investment in reporting economy
Portfolio investment assets
Portfolio investment liabilities
Financial derivatives
Other investment assets
Other investment liabilities
Net errors and omissions
Overall balance
Reserve assets (=increase)
a
1997a
1998a
1999
2000
2001
2002
-16.6
-80.8
199.9
280.8
140.6
5.7
96.5
38.4
-88.5
-35.8
-17.9
-34.8
-28.7
7.5
4.9
2.5
-30.9
-6.8
-24.1
-52.1
39.8
4.2
23.2
-3.4
0.0
-3.4
26.6
0.0
8.0
0.0
10.1
0.0
-0.1
8.5
-5.6
1.0
-1.0
-40.9
-99.7
194.4
294.0
145.5
5.8
101.0
38.7
-96.0
-36.4
-21.2
-38.4
-50.2
7.2
4.4
2.7
-36.3
-6.1
-30.2
-79.3
41.8
-3.4
17.1
-2.5
0.0
-2.5
19.6
0.0
13.5
0.0
12.5
0.0
-6.0
-0.4
8.4
-15.4
15.4
-73.9
-118.4
261.5
-379.9
153.7
8.5
105.6
39.5
-107.0
-29.9
-36.2
-41.0
-71.8
4.8
1.8
3.0
-46.5
-6.4
-40.0
-113.5
41.9
-2.3
99.7
3.3
4.5
-1.3
96.4
0.0
54.7
0.0
38.5
0.0
-14.6
17.7
1.5
27.2
-27.2
-165.5
-202.6
281.8
-484.4
159.1
10.8
117.1
31.2
-124.9
-37.3
-40.5
-47.2
-168.4
6.9
2.0
4.9
-63.7
-9.5
-54.2
-225.2
61.1
-1.3
206.7
-2.2
1.9
-4.1
208.9
0.0
23.3
0.0
113.1
0.0
-46.8
119.2
10.5
51.7
-51.7
-185.0
-211.7
269.1
-480.8
173.7
11.8
119.2
42.6
-121.2
-36.1
-40.8
-44.3
-159.2
8.3
2.0
6.3
-83.2
-12.7
-70.5
-234.2
51.0
-1.8
179.1
1.2
2.4
-1.3
177.9
0.0
59.9
0.0
-14.9
0.0
-3.9
129.0
3.2
-2.7
2.7
-164.3
-188.2
309.7
-497.9
183.4
18.1
129.3
35.9
-130.5
-37.5
-42.5
-50.5
-135.4
3.9
1.9
2.1
-79.4
-10.8
-68.7
-210.9
48.7
-2.1
156.1
11.4
12.6
-1.1
144.7
0.0
24.8
0.0
126.6
0.8
7.2
-14.7
2.7
-5.4
5.4
Prior to 1999 data were compiled using the methodology contained in the fourth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual
(BPM4). Starting from 1999, the recommendations of BPM5 are used.
Source: Data provided by the Central Bank of Belize.
(3)
MERCHANDISE TRADE AND INVESTMENT FLOWS
(i)
Composition and geographical distribution of trade16
29.
Primary products are of key importance in Belize's export basket (Chart I.1). Agricultural
products accounted for almost 80% of total merchandise exports in 2002. Three traditional products
represented about half of Belize's exports: sugar (21%), crustaceans (15%), and bananas (12%); total
manufactures were less than 20%. Within this latter category, clothing was the main export product
(9%) while the remaining items comprised mostly processed foods.
16
Due to the lack of consistency and reliability of trade statistics available for Belize, the detailed trade
estimates usually contained in Secretariat Reports are not presented here, and the analysis in this section is
limited to 2002.
WT/TPR/S/134
Page 10
Trade Policy Review
Chart I.1
Merchandise trade by product and by partner, 2002a
Per cent
(a) Merchandise trade by product
Exports
Machinery &
transport eqpt.
3.2%
Imports
Spirits
2.4%
Not specified
Other
1.5%
manuf.
Clothing 2.0%
9.1%
Not specified
10.7%
Sugar
20.7%
Food waste
2.0%
Food prep.
1.5%
Other
agriculture
11.7%
Other
manufactures
9.7%
Chemicals
4.0%
Manuf.
Agriculture
Clothing
3.0%
Mining
0.4%
Fuels
11.4%
Mining
Other
agriculture
11.1%
Crustaceans
14.6%
Agriculture
Fish
3.5%
Fruits
5.7%
Chemicals
9.1%
Machinery &
transport eqpt.
27.6%
Bananas
12.4%
Orange juice
11.0%
Other
mining
0.9%
Manufactures
Total: US$179.2 million
Other semi-manuf.
10.1%
Total: US$348.1 million
(b) Merchandise trade by partner
Exports
Imports
Other Asia
2.8%
Other Europe
4.3%
Ireland
2.3%
Others
1.7%
Other Asia
5.2%
Singapore
3.1%
Japan
6.5%
Japan
4.3%
Others
0.5%
Other Europe
2.4%
Asia
United States
37.3%
Asia
Other EU15
8.9%
United
Kingdom
26.5%
Europe
Other America
5.7%
Jamaica
3.4%
America
United States
46.7%
Canada
2.4%
Total: US$179.2 million
a
Trade data based on Belize's mirror statistics.
Source: UNSD, Comtrade database (SITC Rev.3).
Europe
America
United
Kingdom
5.9%
Other America
5.7%
El Salvador
2.2%
Guatemala
4.3%
Mexico
17.9%
Total: US$348.1 million
Belize
WT/TPR/S/134
Page 11
30.
Merchandise imports were dominated by manufactured goods, which represented almost 60%
of total imports in 2002. Machinery and transport equipment, especially spare parts, was the most
important item; fuels accounted for 11% of total imports. The authorities note that commodities not
elsewhere classified consisted mostly of imports for EPZs.
31.
While the Western Hemisphere was the major regional destination of Belizean products, the
largest individual trading partner was the United States, followed by the United Kingdom. Japan was
the third major destination of Belizean products. Europe, as a region, accounted for one third of
exports, while Asia reported 7% of total exports.
32.
In contrast, more than two thirds of Belize's imports came from the American continent. The
United States and Mexico were the first and second main suppliers. The European Union and Asia
each accounted for about 15% of Belize total merchandise imports. This highlights the dependency of
Belize's international trade flows on non-CARICOM countries, as noted by the authorities.
33.
In 2001, 49.7% of Belizean exports to the United States were carried out under the MFN
regime and the remaining 50.3% under preferential agreements (Chart I.2). Amongst these, exports
under CBI accounted for 77% of exports under preferential agreements and exports under CBTPA for
21%. Products exported under the GSP regime represented only 2% of all trade under preferential
agreements.
34.
In 2001, five products accounted for 93% of exports to the United States under preferential
agreements. Fruit juices were the most important, with more than 40%, followed by sugar (22%) and
track and ski suits (almost 19%). Melons represented less than 10%.
Chart I.2
Belize's exports to the United States by preferential agreement and
product, 2001
CBI (77.0%)
Per cent
Preferences (50.3%)
CBTPA (21.1%)
GSP (1.9%)
Fruit juices
42.7%
MFN
49.7%
Cane or beet sugar
22.0%
Track, ski suits
18.9%
Melons
9.7%
Others
6.7%
Note:
Shares of agreements and products refer to the total preferential agreement.
Source: Estimates by WTO Secretariat, based on U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), data
online at: http://dataweb.usitc.gov/scripts/INTRO.asp.
WT/TPR/S/134
Page 12
(ii)
Trade Policy Review
Foreign direct investment
35.
According to data from UNCTAD, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Belize
increased between 1997 and 2002 at a annual average rate of 15.7%. As a share of GDP, FDI rose
from 1.8% in 1997 to 2.7% in 2002. During the fiscal expansion and privatization of 1999, FDI
inflows increased more than threefold (Table I.7).
36.
The privatization of several stated-owned, or state-controlled agencies fuelled an increase in
FDI inflows during 1997-01, particularly in 1999 and 2001 when the sale of a majority interest in the
electricity and water companies to foreign investors more than doubled inflows. The purchase of the
citrus processing plants by the Commonwealth Development Corporation also took place in 1999.
FDI outflows by Belizean firms are quite small.
Table I.7
Foreign direct investment 1997-02
(US$ million)
FDI
inflowsa
% of gross capital formationa
FDI
outflowsa
% of gross capital
formationa
FDI inward stockc
% of GDP
FDI outward stockd
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
12
19
59.8
24.6
59.9
24.9b
9.2
14.7
32.8
10.3
27.3
12.8
0.1b
0.0
3.9
5.5
5.1
6.2
0.0b
3.0
4.2
2.8
2.6
0.0
..
..
..
269
310
362
11.5
8
6
33.2
43.1
54.1
..
..
..
47
55
64
18.2
9.1
6.5
8.9
10
11.8
Cross border merger and acquisitions sales
0
62
0
3
62
0
Cross border merger and acquisitions purchases
0
63
318
0
13
0
% of GDP
..
Not available.
a
b
c
d
Central Bank of Belize
Estimated.
Stock data are estimated by accumulating flows from 1970.
Stock data are estimated by accumulating flows from 1991.
Source: UNCTAD (2003), World Investment Report; and data provided by the Central Bank of Belize.
(4)
OUTLOOK
37.
The authorities anticipate that real GDP will expand at between 4.0% and 5.0% in 2004, as
exports increase by 4.0%. Output of all major domestic export crops is forecast to increase, while
livestock and basic grains should remain stable or expand in line with demand from the growing
tourist trade. Manufacturing, construction, and energy should contribute to growth as agri-processing
expands to cope with larger sugar and citrus crops, and major construction projects such as the
Challilo Dam continue. Cruise ship arrivals are expected to increase by 30% and stay-over tourist
arrivals by 4%. Both are expected to increase demand for transportation, hotels and restaurants, and
trade services.
38.
Some fiscal tightening was expected in 2004 in view of the Government’s stated commitment
to keep the deficit to within 3.0% of GDP. Toward this end, several new tax measures were to be
taken at the start of the year. The Government has also budgeted declines in capital expenditures for
2003/04 from the previous year.
39.
A 1.0% increase in the sales tax and the global shift towards higher rates for international
Belize
WT/TPR/S/134
Page 13
freight will put upward pressure on the cost of goods and services. Inflation should therefore be at or
above the 2003 level. The authorities stated that the Central Bank will also be maintaining a close
watch on general liquidity developments to forestall excessive credit expansion that could lead to
pressures on the exchange rate.