UNCTAD Secretary-General's Multi-Stakeholder
Meeting on Coffee
8 April 2009, Geneva
The way forward
by
Mr. John E Schluter
Café Africa, Nyon
"The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UNCTAD"
UNCTAD
Multi-Stakeholder Consultation on
Trade and Development Issues
relating to Coffee
The Way Forward
John E Schluter
Café Africa
1260 Nyon
8th April 2009
1
Projected World Demand est. at 1.75%
150
130
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
80
2015/16
90
2014/15
100
2013/14
110
2012/13
120
2011/12
World demand
2000 107,2 millions
2001 109,8 millions
2002 111,2 millions
2003 113,3 millions
2004 117,2 millions
2005 119,4 millions
2006 121,9 millions
2007 124,0 millions
2008 128,0 millions
1998/99
Million Bags
140
Coffee Year
2
Producer Stocks – 1960 - 2008
(000 bags)
100000
80000
60000
Stocks
in ‘000’s
of bags
40000
20000
05-06
02-03
99-00
96-97
93-94
90-91
87-88
84-85
81-82
78-79
75-76
72-73
69-70
66-67
63-64
60-61
0
%
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
Source: USDA/Ganes-Chase
05-06
02-03
99-00
96-97
93-94
90-91
87-88
84-85
81-82
78-79
75-76
72-73
69-70
66-67
63-64
60-61
Stocks as
%-age
of annual
consumption
3
Coffee – Overall Supply
Brazil & Vietnam - Share of Global Supply
100%
80%
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Other
60%
50%
40%
57/120 = 47%
47/110 = 42%
63/126 = 50%
53/119 = 44%
72/139 = 52%
Vietnam
Brazil
20%
0%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
4
Source: ICO
Coffee Exports 1977/78 – 2007/08
Africa v. World exports
NB: 2007 figures provisional
5
The impact of the price shocks on production
LIFFE month average futures Jan 1980-Oct
2008
Brazil
1994
2 frosts
In Brazil
End of
ICO
Quotas
200.00
Overproduction
150.00
100.00
50.00
Ju
l
O
ct
20
05
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
Ju
l
O
ct
20
00
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
19
95
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
19
90
Ap
r
0.00
19
80
Ap
r
Ju
l
O
ct
19
85
Ap
r
US cents per lb.
drought
date
Source: LIFFE
Refers to the London Robusta Sterling Contract up to March 1991
From April 1991, refers to the London Robusta Dollar Contract
1990’s - Liberalisation
of much of Africa’s
coffee sector
6
Impact of liberalisation!
Before liberalisation
The State took care of everything!
Seedlings, inputs supply, extension services
price stabilisation, financing, marketing
The system also provided protection
for farmer organisations/cooperatives
Grower
Exportation
FOB/FOT
7
The impact of liberalisation!
The State withdraws….
Grower
Exportation
FOB/FOT
8
The impact of liberalisation!
Private Sector
Export
Preparation and
Marketing
Grower
Exporter
FOB/FOT
9
Private Sector
Inputs &
credit
Research and
Seedling multiplication
Extension Services
Growers
Farmer
organisations
Export
processing
Exporter
FOB/FOT
Neither the private sector alone, nor the
Government alone, nor the NGO’s alone,
can solve the problems of the entire
sector. It requires a new basis of
cooperation, a SECTOR WIDE APPROACH
10
11
12
P.P.P.
To ensure sustainable production,
ie
People, Planet, Profit,
(social – environment – economic)
we need a strengthened
P.P.P.
ie
Public Private Partnership
13
14
15
The challenge of collaboration between the
Private and Public Sectors
Public Sector
• Guardianship
• Many priorities
• Different management
processes
• Political priorities for
available funding
• Human resource
management
• Institutions slow to adapt
to changing environment
• Competition between
Ministries
Private Sector
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Entrepreneurship
Too busy
Little or no spare capacity
Competition between
firms
Commercial funding
priorities
Constantly evolving
Feeling of « gamekeeper/poacher » !
Different perception of
time
16
Where does coffee belong?
• Coffee Board/ Coffee
Authority
• Ministry of Commerce
– Regulation, promotion
• Extension services
– One of many crops
• Research
– One of many crops
• Ministry of Agriculture
• Ministry of Research
and Development
17
The Uganda Model
Research & seedling
multiplication
Secretariat
Private Sector
Steering
Committee
(UCDA)
Grower
Producer
Organisations
Development
Partners
Exporter
FOB/FOT
Extension services
Inputs &
Credit
18
Water usage and population growth 1900 - 2003
19
Climate change
20
Why Coffee?
• Large number of small-holder
farmers(Jobin estimated 40 million people
in Africa derive at least part of their income from
coffee – 1992)
• Reach rural populations
• Rich diversity of germ-plasm
• Sustainability – good for
environment
• Contributing to M.D.G.’s
• Good inter-cropping potential
• Major foreign exchange earner
• Creating employment
21
The 3 Golden Rules
• Property
– Location
– Location
– Location
• Coffee
– Yield
– Yield
– Yield
22
Café Africa
Sharing a dynamic vision with
Africa’s coffee industry
Council of Reference
Café Africa
Association under Swiss Law
Management Committee
Cafe Africa
UK Trust
Café Africa Uganda
Board of Directors
Café Africa Uganda
Café Africa Tanzania
Board of Directors
Café Africa Tanzania
Café Africa - (??)
23
24
Preparing for the
incoming tide
¾Increased
consumption
¾Competiton for
water resources
¾Competition from
bio-fuels
¾Competition from
food crops
25
« The strongest principle
of growth lies in human
choice »
George Elliot
26