M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Space for Questions 1 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 2 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 3 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 4 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 5 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 6 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 MATH 141 Day 23 Lecture Notes 7 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Exam 3 Thursday, November 20 At this point, you know what to expect. Doors open around 7:45 AM Have calculator memory (not just RAM) cleared. 8 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 As you probably recognize from the exam review you've done, the hardest material on the exam is from Chapter 7 and Section 8­4. 9 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 10 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 (Can also use binompdf, which we will discuss in a minute.) 11 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook where November 18, 2014 trials = number of trials in the binomial experiment probability = probability of success value = number of successes you want 12 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Two useful calculator functions (TI­83): 13 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 We will actually use the calculator here. Formula: 14 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 15 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 16 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 n = number of trials p = probability of success 17 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Two useful calculator functions (TI­83): 1. binompdf(trials, probability, value) where trials = number of trials in the binomial experiment probability = probability of success value = number of successes you want gives the probability of having exactly x successes in n trials. 2. binomcdf(trials, probability, value) gives the probability of having at most 18 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 A light bulb company knows from its research that each lightbulb it produces has a probability of approximately 0.92 of being good. It is also known that the defectiveness of one lightbulb does not change the probability that any others are defective. In a shipment of 100, find the probability that... ...at most 90 are good. ...at least 90 are good. ...between 85 and 95 are good. 19 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 20 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 We want a number to say how much more "spread out" B is. 21 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 22 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 23 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 24 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Expected Value vs. Expected Net Gain A man buys a one­year life insurance policy for $100. If he dies during the year, his family will get $25,000. What is the expected value of the policy for the insurance company? 25 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 26 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 What you need to know about Variance and Standard Deviation: 1. they measure how "spread out" the variable is. 2. they can be calculated in a calculator or computer (and how to calculate them in a calculator or computer) 3. Variance = (Standard Deviation) 27 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Go to STAT: Edit Put entries for list in L1. Can use Mean, Median, StdDev commands. Newer calculators: Put entries for random variable in L1, put probabilities corresponding to these values in L2. Then use STAT:Calc:1­Var Stats. 28 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 29 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 30 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 31 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 32 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 33 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 34 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 Box A contains four white marbles and five black marbles. Box B contains three white marbles and six black marbles. An experiment consists of first selecting a marble at random from Box A. The marble is transferred to Box B and then a second marble is drawn from Box B. What is the probability that the first marble was white given that the second marble was white? 35 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 36 M141Day22LectureNotes (1).notebook November 18, 2014 37