#ONFRONTING #LIMATE #HANGE
IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
)MPACTS ON /UR #OMMUNITIES AND %COSYSTEMS
:+
:*
>ŽiÊ-Ì°Ê
œÃi«…Ê*>ˆ˜Ã
ˆ«ˆ}œ˜Ê
*>ˆ˜Ã
-Õ«iÀˆœÀÊ
ˆ}…>˜`Ã
/…Õ˜`iÀÊ>ÞÊ
*>ˆ˜Ã
>Ì>}>“ˆ
:-
>ŽiÊ-Õ«iÀˆœÀ
>«i>ÕÊ
*>ˆ˜Ã
œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê>ŽiÃÊ>˜`ʜÀiÃÌÃ
ˆ«ˆÃȘ}
>Ž
->ˆ˜ÌÊ
>ÕÀi˜Ì
ÕÀœ
iÊ
œÀ̅Ê
i˜ÌÀ>Ê
>À`ܜœ`ʜÀiÃÌÃ
>ŽiʈV
-œÕ̅i>ÃÌiÀ˜Ê
7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Ê/ˆÊ*>ˆ˜
ˆ}>˜
˜
ÕÀœ˜Ì>Àˆœ
Àˆi
-œÕ̅iÀ˜Ê
ˆV…ˆ}>˜É œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê
˜`ˆ>˜>Ê
>ÞÊ*>ˆ˜Ã
i
Àˆ
iÊ
>Ž
i˜ÌÀ>Ê
œÀ˜Ê
iÌÊ*>ˆ˜Ã
>ŽiÊ
"˜Ì>Àˆœ
>ÃÌiÀ˜Ê
œÀ˜Ê
iÌÊ*>ˆ˜Ã
:)
2 % 0 / 2 4
/ &
4HE 5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS AND
4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
ÀˆiÉ"˜Ì>Àˆœ
>ŽiÊ*>ˆ˜
œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê««>>V…ˆ>˜Ê
*>Ìi>ÕÊ>˜`Ê1«>˜`Ã
ÕÀœ˜ÉÀˆi
>ŽiÊ*>ˆ˜
!
œÀ̅i>ÃÌiÀ˜
ˆ}…>˜`Ã
#ONFRONTING
#LIMATE #HANGE
IN THE 'REAT
,AKES 2EGION
)MPACTS ON /UR
#OMMUNITIES AND %COSYSTEMS
02%0!2%$ "9
'EORGE 7 +LING
+ATHARINE (AYHOE
,UCINDA " *OHNSON
*OHN * -AGNUSON
3TEPHEN 0OLASKY
3COTT + 2OBINSON
"RIAN * 3HUTER
-ICHELLE - 7ANDER
$ONALD * 7UEBBLES
$ONALD 2 :AK
7)4( #/.42)"54)/.3 &2/-
2ICHARD , ,INDROTH
3USANNE # -OSER
-ARK , 7ILSON
!PRIL !
2%0 /24
/&
4HE 5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS AND
4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . # ! , ) & / 2 . ) !
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#ITATION +LING '7 + (AYHOE ," *OHNSON ** -AGNUSON 3 0OLASKY 3+
2OBINSON "* 3HUTER -- 7ANDER $* 7UEBBLES $2 :AK 2, ,INDROTH
3# -OSER AND -, 7ILSON #ONFRONTING #LIMATE #HANGE IN THE 'REAT
,AKES 2EGION )MPACTS ON OUR #OMMUNITIES AND %COSYSTEMS 5NION OF #ONCERNED
3CIENTISTS #AMBRIDGE -ASSACHUSETTS AND %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
7ASHINGTON $#
Ú 5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!LL RIGHTS RESERVED 0RINTED IN THE 5NITED 3TATES OF !MERICA
$ESIGNED BY
$' #OMMUNICATIONS !CTON -ASSACHUSETTS
WWWNONPROlTDESIGNCOM
0RINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER
#OPIES OF THIS REPORT ARE AVAILABLE FROM
5#3 0UBLICATIONS 4WO "RATTLE 3QUARE #AMBRIDGE -! n
4EL nn
)N #ANADA COPIES OF THE REPORT ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE
$AVID 3UZUKI &OUNDATION
OR ORDERS DAVIDSUZUKIORG
4HE REPORT AND ADDITIONAL TECHNICAL BACKGROUND INFORMATION ARE ALSO AVAILABLE AT
WWWUCSUSAORGGREATLAKES
#OVER 0HOTO #REDITS CLOCKWISE FROM TOP RIGHT
+ILLARNEY 0ROVINCIAL 0ARK /NTARIO PHOTOGRAPH BY #LAUDE 'RONDIN .IAGARA &ALLS
#ENTER FOR 'REAT ,AKES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES COURTESY OF -INN 3EA 'RANT 3LEEPING
"EAR $UNES .ATIONAL ,AKESHORE -ICHIGAN PHOTOGRAPH BY 2OBERT $E*ONGE COURTESY
OF -ICH 4RAVEL "UREAU AND -INN 3EA 'RANT #HICAGO )LLINOIS PHOTOGRAPH BY *OHN
* -AGNUSON &ARMSCAPE NEAR #HIPPEWA &ALLS 7IS PHOTOGRAPH BY 2ON .ICHOLS
COURTESY OF 53$! .ORTH 3TAR ,AKE -INN PHOTOGRAPH BY 2ICHARD &AULKNER
COURTESY OF %DGE OF THE 7ILDERNESS .ATIONAL 3CENIC "YWAY
II
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
4ABLE OF #ONTENTS
ÛÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ ˆ}ÕÀiÃ
ۈˆÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ œÝiÃ
ۈˆÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ />LiÃ
ۈˆˆ ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ VŽ˜œÜi`}i“i˜ÌÃ
£ ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ ÝiVṎÛiÊ-Փ“>ÀÞ
Ç ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ #HAPTER
££
)NTRODUCTION
2EGIONAL ,ANDSCAPES
(UMAN 'EOGRAPHY AND %CONOMY
(UMAN 0RESSURES ON %COSYSTEM (EALTH AND 3ERVICES
#HAPTER 4WO -Vi˜>ÀˆœÃʜvÊ
>˜}i\Ê*>ÃÌ]Ê
ÕÀÀi˜Ì]Ê>˜`ÊÕÌÕÀiÊ
ˆ“>Ìi
Ó£
/NE Ài>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ>˜`Ê*iœ«i\ÊÕÌÕ>Ê˜vÕi˜ViÊ>˜`Êi«i˜`i˜Vi
#LIMATE 4RENDS AND 6ARIABILITY IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
(ISTORICAL 2ECORDS OF #HANGE ,AKE 4EMPERATURE )CE #OVER AND 7ATER ,EVELS
7ATER 4EMPERATURES
$URATION AND %XTENT OF ,AKE )CE
,AKE 7ATER ,EVELS AND 3TREAM &LOWS
0ROJECTIONS OF &UTURE #LIMATE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
4EMPERATURE
0RECIPITATION %XTREME %VENTS AND 2UNOFF
-IGRATING #LIMATES
4HE 0OTENTIAL FOR 3URPRISE
#HAPTER 4HREE Vœœ}ˆV>Ê6Տ˜iÀ>LˆˆÌÞÊ̜Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i\ʵÕ>̈VÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
,AKE %COSYSTEMS
(IGHER ,AKE 4EMPERATURES
2EDUCED )CE #OVER
#HANGES IN ,AKE 7ATER ,EVELS
#HANGES IN ,AKE 0RODUCTIVITY
2IVER AND 3TREAM %COSYSTEMS
)MPACTS OF #HANGES IN (YDROLOGY
)MPACTS OF (IGHER 7ATER 4EMPERATURE
)MPACTS ON "IODIVERSITY AND &OOD 7EBS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
III
xÇ
#HAPTER &OUR Vœœ}ˆV>Ê6Տ˜iÀ>LˆˆÌÞÊ̜Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i\Ê/iÀÀiÃÌÀˆ>ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
ÈÇ
&ORESTED ,ANDSCAPES
$ISTRIBUTION AND 0RODUCTIVITY
)MPACTS ON &OREST )NSECTS
)MPACTS ON 7ILDLIFE
!GRICULTURAL ,ANDSCAPES
#LIMATE )MPACTS ON #ROPS
)MPACTS ON !GRICULTURAL 0ESTS
)MPACTS ON ,IVESTOCK
%CONOMIC #ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE AND %COLOGICAL #HANGES IN 4ERRESTRIAL 3YSTEMS
&ORESTS AND 7ILDLIFE
!GRICULTURE
2ECREATION AND 4OURISM
#HAPTER &IVE iï˜}Ê̅iÊ
>i˜}iÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i
IV
7ETLAND %COSYSTEMS
)MPACTS OF #HANGES IN (YDROLOGY
%COSYSTEM &UNCTIONING
)MPACTS ON "IODIVERSITY
&ISH 2ESPONSES TO #LIMATE #HANGE
#HANGES IN &ISH $ISTRIBUTION
#HANGES IN &ISH 0RODUCTIVITY
%CONOMIC #ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE AND %COLOGICAL #HANGES IN !QUATIC 3YSTEMS
7ATER ,EVELS 3HIPPING AND (YDROPOWER 'ENERATION
&ISHERIES
2EDUCING %MISSIONS BY 3ECTOR
%NERGY
4RANSPORTATION
7ASTE -ANAGEMENT
&ORESTRY AND !GRICULTURE
)NTEGRATED %MISSION 3TRATEGIES
-INIMIZING (UMAN 0RESSURES ON THE %NVIRONMENT
!IR 1UALITY )MPROVEMENTS
7ATER 1UALITY 0ROTECTION AND $EMAND3UPPLY -ANAGEMENT
5RBAN AND ,AND 5SE 0LANNING
(ABITAT 0ROTECTION AND 2ESTORATION
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-ANAGING THE )MPACTS OF #LIMATE #HANGE
&ISHERIES
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS 2ESOURCES AND 7ILDLIFE
!GRICULTURE
&ORESTRY
)NFRASTRUCTURE 0ROTECTION AND "UILT %NVIRONMENTS
(UMAN (EALTH
-EETING THE #HALLENGES
Ǚ
,iviÀi˜ViÃ
™ä
œ˜ÌÀˆLṎ˜}ÊÕ̅œÀÃ
™Ó
-ÌiiÀˆ˜}Ê
œ““ˆÌÌii
&IGURES
&IGURE 4HE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
&IGURE 3ATELLITE$ERIVED -APS 3HOWING ,AND #OVER AND 3OIL $RAINAGE
&IGURE 0OPULATION #HANGE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION n
&IGURE 4HE 7ORLDS 4HIRD,ARGEST %CONOMY
&IGURE 4HE #HANGING #HARACTER OF THE 2EGION
&IGURE A /BSERVED AND 0ROJECTED #HANGE IN !VERAGE $AILY 4EMPERATURE
&IGURE B /BSERVED AND 0ROJECTED #HANGE IN !VERAGE 0RECIPITATION
&IGURE (ISTORICAL 4RENDS IN %XTREME 2AINFALL %VENTS n
&IGURE #HANGE IN 4IMING OF ,AKE &REEZES AND 4HAWS
&IGURE A )CE #OVER $URATION ON ,AKE -ENDOTA 7ISCONSIN
&IGURE B +ITES ON )CE 7INTER &ESTIVAL ON ,AKE -ONONA 7ISCONSIN
&IGURE 0ROJECTED #HANGES IN 4EMPERATURE $URING 3UMMER AND 7INTER BY n
&IGURE 'ROWING 3EASON IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
&IGURE 0ROJECTED #HANGES IN 0RECIPITATION $URING 3UMMER AND 7INTER BY n
&IGURE 3EASONAL 0RECIPITATION #YCLE
&IGURE )NCREASED &REQUENCY OF (EAVY 2AINFALL %VENTS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
&IGURE 0RECIPITATION 3HIFTS 3IGNAL 4ROUBLE FOR &ARMERS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
V
&IGURE -IGRATING #LIMATE #HANGING 7INTERS AND 3UMMERS IN )LLINOIS AND -ICHIGAN
&IGURE )MPACTS ON ,AKE %COSYSTEMS
&IGURE A ,AKE 3TRATIlCATION AND THE $EVELOPMENT OF h$EAD :ONESv
&IGURE B ,AKE -ICHIGAN &ISH +ILL
&IGURE )MPACTS ON 3TREAM %COSYSTEMS
&IGURE )MPACTS ON 7ETLAND %COSYSTEMS
&IGURE A 3ONGBIRD $ECLINES %XPECTED
&IGURE B #LIMATE #HANGE )MPACTS ON 7ATERFOWL
&IGURE ,EOPARD &ROG IN 7ISCONSIN 7ETLAND
&IGURE 4EMPERATURE 'ROUPINGS OF #OMMON 'REAT ,AKES &ISH
&IGURE 7ATER 4EMPERATURE AND &ISH $ISTRIBUTION #HANGES
&IGURE 7ATER #HANGES !FFECT (YDROPOWER
&IGURE 4HE .ORTHERN &ORESTS
&IGURE A &OREST 0ESTS IN A #HANGING #LIMATE
&IGURE B 'YPSY -OTH ,ARVA &EEDING ON !SPEN ,EAF
&IGURE 2ANGE 3HIFTS OF THE #ANADIAN 4IGER 3WALLOWTAIL
&IGURE 6IRGINIA 0OSSUMS 2ANGE %XPANDING .ORTH
&IGURE -IXED )MPACTS FOR !GRICULTURE
&IGURE #LIMATE #HANGE AND !GRICULTURAL 0ESTS
&IGURE A 4EMPERATURE %XTREMES IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
&IGURE B #ONCERNS !BOUT )NSECTBORNE )NFECTIOUS $ISEASES
&IGURE #LIMATE #HANGE )MPACTS ON THE 4IMBER )NDUSTRY
&IGURE )MPACTS ON 3UMMER 2ECREATION
&IGURE -INNESOTA 7IND &ARM
&IGURE )LLINOIS &UEL #ELL "US
&IGURE A 4ORONTOS h'REENv #ITY (ALL
&IGURE B #APTURING -ETHANE 'AS FROM ,ANDlLL
&IGURE &IGURE A %COLOGICAL ,IMITS TO !DAPTATION IN !GRICULTURE )LLINOIS 3OIL
&IGURE B .ORTHERN -ICHIGAN 3OIL
&IGURE VI
-INIMIZING 3PRAWL
-ANAGING THE ,AKE AND 3TREAM )MPACTS OF #LIMATE #HANGE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
"OXES
4HE )NTERNATIONAL #ONSENSUS ON #LIMATE #HANGE
.ATURAL 6ARIABILITY ,ONG4ERM #HANGES AND THE #HALLENGE OF 0REDICTION
/N 4HIN )CE IN -ADISON
#LIMATE #HANGE AND h$EAD :ONESv IN ,AKE %RIE
#LIMATE AND "IRD $IVERSITY ON -ICHIGANS 5PPER 0ENINSULA
%XTREME %VENTS 0UBLIC (EALTH AND THE (UMAN %NVIRONMENT
(OW #ONlDENT #AN 7E "E !BOUT #LIMATE #HANGE )MPACTS ON 'REAT ,AKES %COSYSTEMS
4ORONTO ! ,EADER !MONG #ITIES IN 2EDUCING 'REENHOUSE 'AS %MISSIONS
4ABLES
4ABLE )CE #OVER %XPECTED TO $ECREASE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION
4ABLE 7ATER ,EVELS ,IKELY TO $ECREASE IN THE &UTURE AS SHOWN HERE FOR THE 'REAT ,AKES
#RYSTAL ,AKE 7ISCONSIN AND GROUNDWATER NEAR ,ANSING -ICHIGAN
4ABLE %XPECTED %FFECTS OF 7ARMER AND $RIER 3UMMER #LIMATE ON
,AKES AND 3UBSEQUENT )MPACTS ON !LGAL 0RODUCTIVITY
4ABLE )MPACTS OF #LIMATE #HANGE ON 3TREAM %COSYSTEMS
4ABLE )MPACTS OF #LIMATE #HANGE ON 7ETLAND %COSYSTEMS
4ABLE #HANGES /BSERVED 0REDICTED AND 0OSSIBLE IN THE 2ANGES OF &ISH 3PECIES
IN THE ,AKES AND 2IVERS OF THE 'REAT ,AKES "ASIN
4ABLE #LIMATE #HANGE )MPACTS ON &ISH %COLOGY AND #ONSEQUENCES FOR &ISHERIES
4ABLE 4OTAL 'REENHOUSE 'AS %MISSIONS BY 3TATE0ROVINCE AND 3ECTOR 4ABLE %XAMPLES OF !DAPTIVE -EASURES FOR -ITIGATING )MPACTS OF
#LIMATE #HANGE ON &ISHERIES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
VII
!CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
4HE AUTHORS THANK THE STEERING COMMITTEE OF THIS PROJECT AND ESPECIALLY ,OUIS 0ITELKA
FOR CONCEPTUAL GUIDANCE AND REVIEW OF THE REPORT -ARY "ARBER PAST HER CALL OF DUTY AT %3!
AND 0ETER &RUMHOFF FROM 5#3 PROVIDED LEADERSHIP FROM THE TWO SPONSORING ORGANIZATIONS
)N ADDITION WE APPRECIATE THE MORE THAN TWODOZEN INDIVIDUALS WHO PROVIDED SCIENTIlC
PEER REVIEW OF ALL OR PORTIONS OF EARLIER VERSIONS OF THIS REPORT /UR SINCERE THANKS FOR ENSUR
ING SCIENTIlC ACCURACY GO TO $AVID !LLAN "ENNET "RABSON !LEX "OSTON 3COTT "RIDGHAM
1UENTIN #HIOTTI 0ETER #URTIS %VAN $ELUCIA +IERAN $ONAGHY ,AURIE $RINKWATER 'ABE
&ILIPPELLI !NN . &ISHER 0IERRE 'OSSELIN $AVE 'RIGAL 'LENN 'UNTENSPERGEN $ANNY
(ARVEY "OB (ECKY *OAN +LAASSEN 4IM +RATZ 5RIEL $ +ITRON ! #ARL ,EOPOLD 3ARAH
-ARCHILDON 0AM -ATSON 0ATRICK * -ULHOLLAND ,E2OY 0OFF 4ERRY 2OOT )AN 2UTHERFORD
'ERRY 3COTT +RISTIN 3HRADER&RECHETTE "RENT 3OHNGEN AND 3COTT 3WINTON !NY REMAIN
ING ERRORS ARE OURS OF COURSE
-ANY INDIVIDUALS ALSO SUPPLIED DATA TECHNICAL INFORMATION AND COPIES OF PUBLISHED OR
FORTHCOMING RESEARCH PAPERS 4HANK YOU TO 2ICHARD !DAMS 6ICTOR " #ABALLERO 3TEVE
#LEMMER *EFF $EYETTE 'LENN 'UNTENSPERGEN +SHAMA (ARPANKAR 4OM (OLLENHORST
4IM *OHNSON -ICHELLE -ANION !LAN .OGEE *OHN 0ASTOR *EFF 0RICE !ARON 2APPAPORT
(AROLD 2ENNIE 0HIL 2YAN 0AUL 3TRODE .ORI 4ARUI AND -ICHAEL 7ARD )N ADDITION
+ENNETH +UNKEL SUPPLIED HISTORICAL CLIMATE DATA AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE CLIMATE CHAPTER
$AVID 6INER PROVIDED ACCESS TO (AD#- MODEL RESULTS AND -ICHAEL 7EHNER AND
*ERRY -EEHL PROVIDED ACCESS TO 0#- MODEL RESULTS
(ELP IN IDENTIFYING PRODUCING AND SUPPLYING GRAPHICS AND PHOTOGRAPHS CAME FROM !LEX
"OSTON 4ARYN #LARK 4IM $ANIEL 2OBERT $ARMODY #LAUDE 'RONDIN 3VENJA (ANSEN $AVE
(ANSON *AMES - (AYNES 4OM (OLLENHORST ,INDA (OLTHAUS $AVE (VIZDAK ,UCINDA
*OHNSON 4IM *OHNSON $ENISE +ARNS 'EORGE +LING -ARTY +ROELL 2OBERT -C,EESE *OHN
* -AGNUSON 3ARAH -ARCHILDON 2ON -OEN *OHN 0ASTOR *ULIA 0ETIPAS -ARIE 2EYNOLDS
,ARRY 2ICKER +EITH 3TEWART 0AUL 3TRODE $AVID 4AYLOR 3COTT ! 4HOM -ICHAEL 7ARD
-IKE 7ILLIAMS (EATHER 7EBB AND -INNESOTA 3EA 'RANT 6ANESSA 0ARKER'EISMAN HELPED
TREMENDOUSLY WITH lNDING AND CHOOSING BETWEEN GRAPHICS AND KEPT TRACK OF THEM ALL
4HE PRODUCTION OF THIS REPORT WAS MADE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GENEROUS SUPPORT OF 4HE
(ENRY ,UCE &OUNDATION )NC WITH ADDITIONAL FOUNDATION SUPPORT FROM THE *OHN $ AND
#ATHERINE 4 -AC!RTHUR &OUNDATION -ARBROOK &OUNDATION /AK &OUNDATION THE 6 +ANN
2ASMUSSEN &OUNDATION AND 7ALLACE 'LOBAL &UND 4HE 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS /FlCE OF THE
6ICE #HANCELLOR FOR 2ESEARCH AND THE )LLINOIS)NDIANA 3EA 'RANT 0ROGRAM /FlCE lNANCIALLY
SUPPORTED THE CLIMATE MODELING WORK 4HE $AVID 3UZUKI &OUNDATION 6ANCOUVER "RITISH
#OLUMBIA GENEROUSLY PROVIDED FUNDING FOR SOME WORK RELATED TO THE #ANADIAN PORTION
OF THE PROJECT 4HE REPORT WILL BE RELEASED UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE $3& IN /NTARIO
&INALLY WE COULD NOT HAVE COMPLETED THIS PROJECT WITHOUT 2HONDA +RANZ OF THE %COLOGICAL
3OCIETY OF !MERICA AND 3USANNE -OSER OF THE 5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS WHO
PERSISTENTLY AND PATIENTLY MANAGED THE PROJECT THROUGH ITS DIFFERENT PHASES
VIII
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
%XECUTIVE 3UMMARY
4
HE 'REAT ,AKES REGION OF THE 5NITED 3TATES AND #ANADA IS A LAND OF STRIKING GLACIAL LEGACIES
SPECTACULAR LAKES VAST WETLANDS FERTILE SOUTHERN SOILS AND RUGGED NORTHERN TERRAIN FORESTED
IN SPRUCE AND FIR )T IS ALSO HOME TO MILLION PEOPLE WHOSE ACTIONS CAN PROFOUNDLY AFFECT
THE REGIONS ECOLOGICAL BOUNTY AND THE LIFESUSTAINING BENEFITS IT PROVIDES .OW THAT THE WORLD
IS ENTERING A PERIOD OF UNUSUALLY RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVEN LARGELY BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES THAT RELEASE
HEATTRAPPING GREENHOUSE GASES INTO THE ATMOSPHERE THE RESPONSIBILITY FOR SAFEGUARDING OUR NATURAL
HERITAGE IS BECOMING URGENT
'ROWING EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CLIMATE OF THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION IS ALREADY CHANGING
% 7INTERS ARE GETTING SHORTER
% !NNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE GROWING WARMER
% 4HE DURATION OF LAKE ICE COVER IS DECREASING AS AIR AND WATER TEMPERATURES RISE
% (EAVY RAINSTORMS ARE BECOMING MORE COMMON
4HIS REPORT EXAMINES THESE TRENDS IN DETAIL AND DISCUSSES THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FUTURE 4HE CONSEQUENCES OF THESE CLIMATIC CHANGES WILL MAGNIFY THE IMPACTS OF ONGOING
HUMAN DISTURBANCES THAT FRAGMENT OR TRANSFORM LANDSCAPES POLLUTE AIR AND WATER AND DISRUPT NATURAL
ECOSYSTEMS AND THE VITAL GOODS AND SERVICES THEY PROVIDE #ONFRONTING #LIMATE #HANGE IN THE 'REAT
,AKES 2EGION EXPLORES THE POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE GOOD AND BAD FOR THE CHARACTER
ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT OF THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION DURING THE COMING CENTURY )T ALSO EXAMINES
ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN NOW TO HELP FORESTALL MANY OF THE MOST SEVERE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE
CHANGE FOR .ORTH !MERICAS HEARTLAND
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
%XECUTIVE 3UMMARY
ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ7…>ÌʈÃÊ̅iÊ
ˆŽiÞÊVˆ“>ÌiÊvÕÌÕÀiÊvœÀÊ
ÊÊÊÊÊÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜¶
)N GENERAL THE CLIMATE OF THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION WILL
GROW WARMER AND PROBABLY DRIER DURING THE TWENTY
FIRST CENTURY #LIMATE MODELS PREDICT THAT BY THE END
OF THE CENTURY TEMPERATURE IN THE REGION WILL WARM
BY TO —& TO —# IN WINTER AND BY TO —&
TO —# IN SUMMER .IGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO WARM MORE THAN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
EXTREME HEAT WILL BE MORE COMMON !NNUAL AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION LEVELS ARE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE BUT THE
SEASONAL DISTRIBUTION IS LIKELY TO VARY GREATLY INCREAS
ING IN WINTER AND DECREASING IN SUMMER /VERALL THE
REGION MAY GROW DRIER BECAUSE ANY INCREASES IN RAIN
OR SNOW ARE UNLIKELY TO COMPENSATE FOR THE DRYING
EFFECTS OF INCREASED EVAPORATION AND TRANSPIRATION IN
A WARMER CLIMATE 4HIS DRYING WILL AFFECT SURFACE AND
GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND SOIL MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
DECREASE BY PERCENT IN SUMMER )N ADDITION THE
FREQUENCY OF HOUR AND MULTIDAY DOWNPOURS AND
THUS FLOODING MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
4HESE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
WILL STRONGLY ALTER HOW THE CLIMATE FEELS TO US 7ITHIN
THREE DECADES FOR EXAMPLE A SUMMER IN )LLINOIS MAY
FEEL LIKE A SUMMER IN /KLAHOMA DOES TODAY "Y THE
END OF THE CENTURY AN )LLINOIS SUMMER MAY WELL FEEL
LIKE ONE IN EAST 4EXAS TODAY WHILE A -ICHIGAN SUM
MER WILL PROBABLY FEEL LIKE AN !RKANSAS SUMMER DOES
TODAY 2ESIDENTS IN 4ORONTO COULD EXPERIENCE A SHIFT
FROM A SOUTHERN /NTARIO SUMMER TO ONE THAT BY
MAY FEEL MORE LIKE ONE IN UPSTATE .EW 9ORK
AND BY THE END OF THE CENTURY MORE LIKE ONE IN
NORTHERN 6IRGINIA TODAY
ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ7…>Ìʓˆ}…ÌÊ̅iÃiÊ
V…>˜}iÃʓi>˜ÊvœÀÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ
ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ>˜`Ê̅iÊ}œœ`ÃÊ
ÊÊÊÊÊ>˜`ÊÃiÀۈViÃÊ̅iÞÊ«ÀœÛˆ`i¶Ê
>ŽiÃ
s ,AKE LEVELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN THE S
BUT DECLINES IN BOTH THE INLAND LAKES AND THE 'REAT
,AKES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FUTURE
s $ECLINES IN THE DURATION OF WINTER ICE ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE
s ,OSS OF WINTER ICE MAY BE A MIXED BLESSING FOR FISH
REDUCING WINTERKILL IN SHALLOW LAKES BUT ALSO JEOPAR
DIZING REPRODUCTION OF WHITEFISH IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
BAYS WHERE ICE COVER PROTECTS THE EGGS FROM WINTER
STORM DISTURBANCE
s 4HE DISTRIBUTIONS OF MANY FISH AND OTHER ORGANISMS
IN LAKES AND STREAMS WILL CHANGE #OLDWATER SPECIES
SUCH AS LAKE TROUT BROOK TROUT AND WHITEFISH
AND COOLWATER SPECIES SUCH AS NORTHERN PIKE AND
WALLEYE ARE LIKELY TO DECLINE IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE REGION WHILE WARMWATER SPECIES SUCH AS
SMALLMOUTH BASS AND BLUEGILL ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD
s )NVASIONS BY NATIVE SPECIES CURRENTLY FOUND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND INVASIONS OF WARM
WATER NONNATIVE SPECIES SUCH AS COMMON CARP WILL
BE MORE LIKELY INCREASING THE STRESS ON NATIVE PLANT
AND ANIMAL POPULATIONS IN THE REGION
s )N ALL LAKES THE DURATION OF SUMMER STRATIFICATION
WILL INCREASE ADDING TO THE RISK OF OXYGEN DEPLE
TION AND FORMATION OF DEEPWATER hDEAD ZONESv
FOR FISH AND OTHER ORGANISMS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
s ,OWER WATER LEVELS COUPLED WITH WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES MAY ACCELERATE THE ACCUMULATION OF
MERCURY AND OTHER CONTAMINANTS IN THE AQUATIC
FOOD CHAIN AND ULTIMATELY IN FISH
s -ANY FISH SPECIES SHOULD GROW FASTER IN WARMER
WATERS BUT TO DO SO THEY MUST INCREASE THEIR
FEEDING RATES )T REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER PREY
SPECIES AND THE FOOD WEB RESOURCES ON WHICH THEY
DEPEND WILL INCREASE TO MEET THESE NEW DEMANDS
-ÌÀi>“ÃÊ>˜`Ê7ȉ>˜`Ã
s %ARLIER ICE BREAKUP AND EARLIER PEAKS IN SPRING
RUNOFF WILL CHANGE THE TIMING OF STREAM FLOWS
AND INCREASES IN HEAVY RAINSTORMS MAY CAUSE
MORE FREQUENT FLOODING
s #HANGES IN THE TIMING AND SEVERITY
OF FLOOD PULSES ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE
SAFE BREEDING SITES ESPECIALLY FOR
AMPHIBIANS MIGRATORY SHOREBIRDS
AND WATERFOWL AND MAY CAUSE MANY
NORTHERN MIGRATORY SPECIES SUCH AS
#ANADA GEESE TO WINTER FURTHER
NORTH
s ,AND USE CHANGE AND HABITAT FRAGMENTATION
COMBINED WITH CLIMATE CHANGEINDUCED SHRINK
ING OF STREAMS AND WETLANDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THE
NUMBER AND TYPE OF REFUGIA AVAILABLE TO AQUATIC
ORGANISMS ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH LIMITED DISPERSAL
CAPABILITIES SUCH AS AMPHIBIANS AND MOLLUSKS
AS STREAMS AND WETLANDS SHRINK
œÀiÃÌÃ
s 4HE DISTRIBUTION OF FORESTS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AS
WARMER TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE EXTENT OF BOREAL
FORESTS TO SHRINK AND MANY FOREST SPECIES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD 4HE NEW FOREST COMPOSITION WILL
DEPEND ON THE ABILITY OF INDIVIDUAL SPECIES TO
COLONIZE NEW SITES AND THE PRESENCE OF BOTH
GEOGRAPHIC AND HUMAN BARRIERS TO MIGRATION
s )NCREASING ATMOSPHERIC #/ CON
CENTRATION IS LIKELY TO SPUR FOREST
GROWTH IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE
`i«ïœ˜Ê>˜`Ê
LONGTERM RESPONSE IS NOT CLEAR AT
`ii«‡Ü>ÌiÀʺ`i>`Ê
PRESENT )NCREASING GROUNDLEVEL
OZONE CONCENTRATIONS FOR EXAMPLE
✘iûÊ܈Êˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ
WILL PROBABLY DAMAGE FOREST TREES
ˆ˜Ê>Ê>Žið
POTENTIALLY OFFSETTING THE POSITIVE
s 2EDUCED SUMMER WATER LEVELS ARE
EFFECT OF #/
LIKELY TO DIMINISH THE RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER
s #ONTINUED DEPOSITION OF NITROGEN FROM THE
SUPPLIES CAUSE SMALL STREAMS TO DRY UP AND REDUCE
ATMOSPHERE MAY SPUR GROWTH IN FORESTS BUT THE
THE AREA OF WETLANDS RESULTING IN POORER WATER
LONGTERM CONSEQUENCES INCLUDE INCREASED NITRATE
QUALITY AND LESS HABITAT FOR WILDLIFE
POLLUTION OF WATERWAYS GROUNDWATER AND DRINK
s $ROUGHT AND LOWER WATER LEVELS MAY ULTIMATELY
ING WATER SUPPLIES
INCREASE ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION DAMAGE TO FROGS AND
s ,ONGDISTANCE MIGRATORY BIRDS SUCH AS SCARLET TAN
OTHER AQUATIC ORGANISMS ESPECIALLY IN CLEAR
AGERS WARBLERS THRUSHES AND FLYCATCHERS DEPEND
SHALLOW WATER BODIES
ON TREES AND CATERPILLARS FOR FOOD %SPECIALLY FOR
s 2IVER FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE COMMON AND
THOSE MIGRANTS WHO TIME THEIR MIGRATION BY DAY
EXTREME BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION OF MORE FREQUENT
LENGTH RATHER THAN BY WEATHER FOOD SOURCES MAY
RAINSTORMS WITH URBANIZATION AND OTHER LAND MAN
BE SEVERELY REDUCED WHEN THEY ARRIVE IN THE 'REAT
AGEMENT PRACTICES THAT INCREASE PAVEMENT AND
,AKES REGION
OTHER IMPERVIOUS SURFACES AND DEGRADE THE NATURAL
s 2ESIDENT BIRDS SUCH AS NORTHERN CARDINALS CHICKA
FLOODABSORBING CAPACITIES OF WETLANDS AND FLOOD
DEES AND TITMICE MIGHT BE ABLE TO BEGIN BREEDING
PLAINS 4HE RESULT COULD BE INCREASED EROSION
EARLIER AND RAISE MORE BROODS EACH SEASON (OW
ADDITIONAL WATER POLLUTION FROM NUTRIENTS PESTI
EVER INCREASING POPULATIONS OF RESIDENT SPECIES
CIDES AND OTHER CONTAMINANTS AND POTENTIAL
COULD FURTHER REDUCE THE FOOD AVAILABLE FOR MIGRA
DELAYS IN RECOVERY FROM ACID RAIN
TORY SONGBIRDS THAT BREED IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
ULTIMATELY REDUCING FOREST BIRD DIVERSITY IN THE
REGION
/…iÊÀˆÃŽÊœvʜÝÞ}i˜Ê
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
%XECUTIVE 3UMMARY
s 4HE GEOGRAPHIC RANGE OF FOREST PEST SPECIES SUCH AS
THE GYPSY MOTH IS LIKELY TO EXPAND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF FOOD PLANTS CHANGES
s #HANGES IN LEAF CHEMISTRY DUE TO #/ FERTILIZATION
ARE POSSIBLE REDUCING FOOD QUALITY FOR SOME ORGAN
ISMS 4HIS COULD CAUSE SOME LEAFEATING PESTS TO
EAT MORE AND COULD ULTIMATELY ALTER AQUATIC AND
TERRESTRIAL FOOD WEBS
s 7ARMER TEMPERATURES MAY IMPAIR LIVESTOCK
HEALTH IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AND A DRIER
SUMMER CLIMATE MAY REDUCE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF
PASTURE GRASSES
s /VERALL THE INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BOTH
CROP AND LIVESTOCK SECTORS WILL BE GREATLY MODERATED
BY TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES AND TRENDS IN MARKETS
(OWEVER INCREASING VARIABILITY IN THE CLIMATE IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE ECONOMIC RISKS FOR SMALLER FARMS
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
s %ARLIER STUDIES PREDICTED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WOULD
Vœ˜œ“ˆV]Ê-œVˆ>]Ê>˜`Êi>Ì…Ê“«>VÌÃÊ
BENEFIT OR ONLY MARGINALLY DISRUPT 'REAT ,AKES
s !S LAKE LEVELS DROP COSTS TO SHIPPING IN THE 'REAT
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY OVER THE NEXT YEARS
,AKES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE ALONG WITH COSTS OF
WITH WARMING AND INCREASED #/ FERTILIZATION
DREDGING HARBORS AND CHANNELS AND OF ADJUSTING
BOOSTING YIELDS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION
DOCKS WATER INTAKE PIPES AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE
.EWER CLIMATE PROJECTIONS USED IN THIS REPORT
/N THE OTHER HAND A LONGER ICEFREE SEASON WILL
HOWEVER SUGGEST A LESS FAVORABLE IMPACT ON AGRI
INCREASE THE SHIPPING SEASON
CULTURE LARGELY BECAUSE OF CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBU
s 3HORTER WARMER WINTERS WILL RESULT IN LOSSES IN
TION OF RAIN 7ETTER PERIODS ARE EXPECTED DURING
WINTER RECREATION SUCH AS SKIING ICE FISHING AND
TIMES THAT COULD DELAY HAR
SNOWMOBILING BUT MAY LENGTHEN
VEST OR PLANTING AND DRY
THE SEASON FOR WARMWEATHER REC
œÜiÀÊÃՓ“iÀÊÜ>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃÊ
SPELLS ARE PROJECTED DURING
REATION #HANGES IN RECREATIONAL
TIMES WHEN CROPS NEED WA
>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜Ê`ˆ“ˆ˜ˆÃ…Ê̅iÊ
FISHING HUNTING AND WILDLIFE VIEW
TER !S OPTIMAL AGRICULTURAL
ING MAY OCCUR AS THE DISTRIBUTION
ÀiV…>À}iʜvÊ}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀ]Ê
CLIMATES MOVE NORTHWARD
OF SPECIES SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND EASTWARD CROP YIELDS
V>ÕÃiÊÓ>ÊÃÌÀi>“ÃÊ̜Ê`ÀÞÊ
MAY BE LIMITED BY SOIL QUAL
s #LIMATE WARMING MAY LOWER
Õ«]Ê>˜`ÊÀi`ÕViÊ̅iÊ>Ài>Ê
ITY AND BE MORE VULNERABLE
HEATING COSTS IN WINTER BUT THAT
TO WEATHER EXTREMES SUCH AS
MAY BE OFFSET BY HIGHER COSTS FOR
œvÊÜȉ>˜`ð
FLOODS AND DROUGHTS
AIR CONDITIONING IN SUMMER
s 4HE LENGTH OF THE GROWING SEASON WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE SO THAT BY THE END OF THE CENTURY IT MAY
BE FOUR TO NINE WEEKS LONGER THAN OVER THE PERIOD
n
s #ROP LOSSES MAY INCREASE AS NEW PESTS AND DISEASES
BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE REGION AND AS WARMER
LONGER GROWING SEASONS FACILITATE THE BUILDUP OF
LARGER PEST POPULATIONS !LREADY THE RANGE OF THE
BEAN LEAF BEETLE A PEST OF SOYBEANS APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD
s /ZONE CONCENTRATIONS ALREADY REACH LEVELS
THAT DAMAGE SOYBEANS AND HORTICULTURAL CROPS
AND INCREASING CONCENTRATIONS MAY COUNTERACT
THE INCREASED PRODUCTION EXPECTED FROM #/
FERTILIZATION
s 7ATER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE 'REAT ,AKES ARE
ALREADY THE SUBJECT OF CONTENTIOUS DEBATE AND
PRESSURES FOR MORE WATER FOR IRRIGATION DRINKING
AND OTHER HUMAN USES MAY INTENSIFY THE CONFLICTS
AS WATER SHORTAGES DEVELOP
s $ECREASED WATER LEVELS COULD REDUCE HYDROPOWER
GENERATION IN THE REGION
s -ORE DAYS WITH HIGH HEAT MAY EXACERBATE THE
FORMATION OF DANGEROUS LEVELS OF OZONE /ZONE
AND OTHER AIR POLLUTANTS GENERATED BY COALFIRED
POWER PLANTS IN THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO EXACER
BATE ASTHMA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY DISEASES
s (EALTH RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREME HEAT ARE LIKELY
TO INCREASE WHILE COLDRELATED ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY
TO DECREASE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
ÊÊÊÊÊʜÜÊV>˜ÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌÃʜvÊ
̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê>``ÀiÃÃÊ̅iÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ
̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê>``ÀiÃÃÊ̅iÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ
ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊV…>i˜}iʜvÊ>ÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi¶
4HERE ARE PRUDENT AND RESPONSIBLE ACTIONS THAT CITI
ZENS AND POLICYMAKERS CAN TAKE NOW TO REDUCE THE
VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS AND SAFEGUARD THE ECONO
MY OF THE REGION IN THE FACE OF A CHANGING CLIMATE
4HESE ACTIONS REPRESENT THREE COMPLEMENTARY
APPROACHES
AS WELL AS AQUATIC HABITATS REDUCING URBAN SPRAWL
AND ATTENDANT HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND FRAGMENTA
TION RESTORING CRITICAL HABITATS AND PREVENTING
THE SPREAD OF INVASIVE NONNATIVE SPECIES
s !NTICIPATING AND PLANNING FOR THE IMPACTS OF
CHANGE TO REDUCE FUTURE
DAMAGE 4HIS MAY INCLUDE
/…iÀiÊ>ÀiÊ«ÀÕ`i˜ÌÊ>˜`Ê
A WIDE RANGE OF ADAPTATIONS
Ài뜘ÈLiÊ>V̈œ˜ÃÊ̅>ÌÊVˆÌˆâi˜ÃÊ FROM SHIFTS IN FISHERIES MAN
>˜`Ê«œˆVޓ>ŽiÀÃÊV>˜ÊÌ>ŽiʘœÜÊ AGEMENT AND FARMING ACTIVI
TIES TO CHANGES IN BUILDING
̜ÊÀi`ÕViÊ̅iÊÛՏ˜iÀ>LˆˆÌÞʜvÊ
CODES AND PUBLIC HEALTH MAN
AGEMENT PLANS TO PREPARE FOR
iVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ>˜`ÊÃ>vi}Õ>À`Ê̅iÊ
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
s 2EDUCING THE REGIONS CON
TRIBUTION TO THE GLOBAL
PROBLEM OF HEATTRAPPING
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
!LTHOUGH SOME WARMING
IS INEVITABLE AS A RESULT OF
HISTORICAL EMISSIONS OF
#/ MANY OF THE MOST
iVœ˜œ“ÞʜvÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°
DAMAGING IMPACTS CAN BE
AVOIDED IF THE PACE AND
#LIMATE CHANGE IS ALREADY
EVENTUAL SEVERITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE MODERATED
MAKING AN IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 'REAT
3TRATEGIES FOR REDUCING EMISSIONS INCLUDE INCREASING
,AKES REGION 7AITING TO BEGIN REDUCING EMISSIONS
ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION IN INDUSTRIES
OR TO PLAN FOR MANAGING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND HOMES BOOSTING THE USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
ONLY INCREASES THE EVENTUAL EXPENSE AND THE POTENTIAL
SOURCES SUCH AS WIND POWER IMPROVING VEHICLE FUEL
FOR IRREVERSIBLE LOSSES &ORTUNATELY MANY OF THE ACTIONS
EFFICIENCY REDUCING THE NUMBER OF MILES DRIVEN
THAT CAN BE TAKEN NOW TO PREVENT THE MOST DAMAGING
AVOIDING WASTE AND RECYCLING
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CAN ALSO PROVIDE IMMEDI
ATE COLLATERAL BENEFITS SUCH AS COST SAVINGS CLEANER AIR
s -INIMIZING HUMAN PRESSURES ON THE GLOBAL AND
AND WATER IMPROVED HABITAT AND RECREATIONAL OPPOR
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT TO REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY OF
TUNITIES AND ENHANCED QUALITY OF LIFE IN COMMUNITIES
ECOSYSTEMS AND VITAL ECOLOGICAL SERVICES TO CLIMATE
THROUGHOUT THE REGION
CHANGE 0RUDENT ACTIONS INCLUDE REDUCING AIR POL
LUTION PROTECTING THE QUALITY OF WATER SUPPLIES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
'REAT L AKES %COSYSTEMS AND 0EOPLE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#(!04%2
/NE
'REAT ,AKES %COSYSTEMS AND 0EOPLE
-UTUAL )NFLUENCE AND $EPENDENCE
4
HE UNIQUE WATERS AND LANDFORMS OF THE
INCREASED BY MORE THAN $& $# GROWING SEASONS
'REAT ,AKES REGION ARE A STRIKING LEGACY
HAVE LENGTHENED AND PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED BY
OF CLIMATES PAST &OR TWO AND A HALF MIL
TO PERCENT SINCE /THER INDICATORS THAT THE
LION YEARS MASSIVE ICE SHEETS ADVANCED
CLIMATE IS WARMING INCLUDE DOCUMENTED LOSSES IN THE
AND RETREATED ACROSS THE LAND SCOURING THE BEDROCK
EXTENT OF ALPINE GLACIERS SEA ICE AND SEASONAL SNOW
GOUGING OUT SPECTACULAR LAKE BASINS AND DEPOSIT
COVER
ING THE GEOLOGICAL FORERUNNERS OF THE SOILS THAT NOW
%VIDENCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT CLIMATE
NURTURE FORESTS FARMS AND GARDENS 4HE ECOSYSTEMS
CHANGE IS BEING DRIVEN BY INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CON
AND HUMAN ECONOMIES OF THE REGION LIKE THE LAND
CENTRATIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES MAINLY CARBON DIOXIDE
SCAPE ITSELF HAVE BEEN PROFOUNDLY SHAPED BY THIS
#/ BUT ALSO METHANE #( AND NITROUS OXIDE
CLIMATIC LEGACY .OW THE WORLD IS
./ 4HE MAIN REASON FOR THE
ENTERING ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLIMATE
BUILDUP OF THESE GASES IS THE BURNING
/…iÊÛ>ÃÌʓ>œÀˆÌÞÊ
CHANGE THIS TIME UNUSUALLY RAPID AND
OF FOSSIL FUELS THE CLEARING OF FORESTS
œvÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃÊ>ÀiÊ
DRIVEN LARGELY BY HUMAN ACTIVITIES THAT
AND OTHER ACTIVITIES OF A BURGEONING
RELEASE HEATTRAPPING GREENHOUSE GASES
HUMAN POPULATION 7ITHOUT MAJOR
˜œÜÊViÀÌ>ˆ˜Ê̅>ÌÊ
INTO THE ATMOSPHERE 4HE IMPACTS OF
SHIFTS IN GLOBAL POLICIES OR ENERGY TECH
̅iÊܜÀ`½ÃÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ
THIS CLIMATE CHANGE IN CONCERT WITH
NOLOGIES THESE CHANGES IN THE ATMO
OTHER HUMAN PRESSURES ON OUR LANDS
SPHERE WILL CONTINUE %VEN IF HUMAN
ˆÃÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}°
AND WATERS PROMISE TO ALTER THE
EMISSIONS WERE TO BE REDUCED DRAS
CHARACTER ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENT
TICALLY #/ ALREADY IN THE ATMO
OF THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION DURING THE TWENTYlRST
SPHERE WOULD TAKE DECADES TO DECAY ENSURING CONTINU
CENTURY %XAMINING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF FUTURE
ING IMPACTS ON THE CLIMATE FOR SEVERAL GENERATIONS
CLIMATE ON THE REGION IS THE PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT
,IFE ON EARTH HAS RARELY EXPERIENCED SHIFTS IN CLIMATE
4HE VAST MAJORITY OF SCIENTISTS ARE NOW CERTAIN
AS RAPID AS THOSE NOW IN PROGRESS AND IT IS UNCLEAR
THAT THE WORLDS CLIMATE IS CHANGING !VERAGE GLOBAL
WHETHER THE PLANTS ANIMALS AND ECOSYSTEMS ON WHICH
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING AND THE CURRENT RATE
HUMANS DEPEND CAN ADAPT QUICKLY ENOUGH 4HESE
EXCEEDS THE NORMAL RANGE OF TEMPERATURE SWINGS
FACTORS LEND ADDED URGENCY TO THE NEED TO ADDRESS
EXPERIENCED FOR AT LEAST THE LAST THOUSAND YEARS
BOTH THE CAUSES AND THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
4EMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
'REAT L AKES %COSYSTEMS AND 0EOPLE
,i}ˆœ˜>Ê>˜`ÃV>«iÃÊ
4
HE 'REAT ,AKES BASIN ENCOMPASSES MORE THAN
SQUARE MILES OF THE .ORTH !MERICAN
HEARTLAND AND CONTAINS THE LARGEST SINGLE CON
CENTRATION OF LIQUID FRESH
1,Ê£
/…iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
WATER ON THE PLANET 4HE
lVE 'REAT ,AKES THEM
SELVES COVER MORE THAN
SQUARE MILES AND
HOLD ABOUT PERCENT
OF THE WORLDS SUPPLY OF
FRESH WATER 4HE REGION
HOSTS NOT ONLY THE
LARGEST LAKE IN THE WORLD
,AKE 3UPERIOR AND THE
FOUR OTHER 'REAT ,AKES
%RIE (URON -ICHIGAN
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎÎ
AND /NTARIO BUT ALSO
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF
SMALLER LAKES STREAMS AND
1,ÊÓ
WETLANDS ±THE GREATEST
->ÌiˆÌi‡iÀˆÛi`Ê>«ÃÊ-…œÜˆ˜}Ê
>˜`Ê
œÛiÀÊ>˜`Ê-œˆÊÀ>ˆ˜>}i
CONCENTRATION OF SMALL
WATER BODIES IN THE
WORLD IN AN AREA OF THIS
SIZE &IGURE 4HIS REPORT FOCUSES
ON THE SIX 'REAT ,AKES
STATES )LLINOIS )NDIANA
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎÎ
-ICHIGAN -INNESOTA
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
/HIO AND 7ISCONSIN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PROVINCE OF /NTARIO AND PORTIONS OF .EW 9ORK AND
0ENNSYLVANIA WITHIN THE BOUNDARIES OF THE 'REAT
,AKES "ASIN &IGURE "ECAUSE OF THE WAY ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL STATISTICS ARE COLLECTED THIS REPORT WILL
SOMETIMES TALK ABOUT THE SIX 'REAT ,AKES STATES
PLUS /NTARIO
4HE GLACIAL HISTORY OF THE REGION CONSTRAINS AND
INmUENCES MOST ASPECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT 4HE
REPEATED GLACIATIONS THAT BEGAN MILLION YEARS AGO
ENDED WITH THE LAST ICE AGE WHICH COVERED THE ENTIRE
REGION AS FAR SOUTH AS THE /HIO 2IVER FROM TO
YEARS AGO 4HE ICE lNALLY RECEDED COMPLETELY
ABOUT YEARS AGO LEAVING THE MARK OF ITS PASSING
ON THE CURRENT LANDSCAPE #URRENT PATTERNS OF LAND
COVER AND LAND USE IN THE REGION &IGURE MIRROR
THE DISTRIBUTION OF SOILS AND SEDIMENTS LEFT BY THE
GLACIERS )N THE NORTHERN UPLAND REGION LOCATED ON
THE #ANADIAN 3HIELD THIN COARSETEXTURED SOILS SUP
PORT EXTENSIVE SPRUCE AND lR FORESTS 4HE COLD CLIMATE
AND RELATIVELY POOR SOILS HAVE DISCOURAGED DEVELOP
MENT OF LARGE POPULATION CENTERS AND THE ECONOMY
DEPENDS LARGELY ON TOURISM TIMBER AND MINING )N
THE LOWLAND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST DEEP AND
FERTILE SOILS COMBINED WITH A WARMER CLIMATE SUP
PORT A LARGE PROPORTION OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
FOR BOTH #ANADA AND THE 5NITED 3TATES ALONG WITH
REMNANT OAK AND HICKORY FORESTS AND PRAIRIE HABITAT
Փ>˜Êiœ}À>«…ÞÊ>˜`ÊVœ˜œ“Þ
-
ORE THAN MILLION PEOPLE LIVE IN THE
'REAT ,AKES STATES AND /NTARIO HALF OF
THEM WITHIN THE 'REAT ,AKES DRAINAGE
BASIN ITSELF AND THE POPULATION CONTINUES TO GROW
0OPULATION GREW BY PERCENT IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
STATES OVER THE PAST DECADE &IGURE AND PERCENT OVER THE SAME PERIOD IN /NTARIO -ANY
MAJOR CITIES ARE SITUATED ON THE SHORES OF THE 'REAT
,AKES INCLUDING "UFFALO #HICAGO #LEVELAND $ETROIT
(AMILTON -ILWAUKEE 4ORONTO AND 7INDSOR
4HE ECONOMY OF THE REGION IS LARGE AND DIVERSIlED
AND INCLUDES STRONG MANUFACTURING SERVICES INCLUD
ING TOURISM AND RECREATION AGRICULTURE FORESTRY AND
GOVERNMENT SECTORS &IGURE 2EGIONAL PRODUCTION
IN TOTALED NEARLY TRILLION 53 AN AMOUNT
THAT EXCEEDS THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF ANY
NATION EXCEPT THE 5NITED 3TATES AND *APAN
4HE 'REAT ,AKES REGION FORMS THE INDUSTRIAL HEART
LAND OF .ORTH !MERICA )N OVER PERCENT
OF THE VALUE OF MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS IN #ANADA
CAME FROM /NTARIO AND THE SIX 'REAT ,AKES STATES
CONTRIBUTE MORE THAN PERCENT OF TOTAL VALUE ADDED
4HE TERM GENERALLY MEANS THE ENHANCED VALUE OF A COMMODITY WHEN PROCESSED INTO A SECONDARY MORE VALUABLE PRODUCT OR SERVICE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
IN 53 MANUFACTURING %ARLY INDUSTRY RELIED UPON
RAW MATERIALS MINED OR HARVESTED IN THE REGION AND
LOWCOST SHIPPING ON THE LAKES )RON ORE FROM NORTH
ERN -INNESOTA FOR INSTANCE WAS SHIPPED DOWN THE
LAKES TO FEED THE GIANT STEEL MILLS OF 'ARY AND 0ITTS
BURGH )N RECENT YEARS THE ECONOMY HAS BECOME
MORE DIVERSIlED AND NO LONGER RELIES TO SUCH A LARGE
DEGREE ON STEEL AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURING AND OTHER
HEAVY INDUSTRY 4HE REGION REMAINS A MAJOR SHIPPING
CENTER HOWEVER AND FREIGHTERS PLY THE LAKES AND SEA
WAY CORRIDORS TO THE !TLANTIC /CEAN CARRYING GRAIN
SOYBEANS COAL IRON ORE AND OTHER GOODS AND COM
MODITIES WORTH BILLIONS OF DOLLARS FROM THE -IDWEST
AND #ANADA TO MARKETS WORLDWIDE 4HIS TRAFlC GEN
ERATES BILLION 53 IN YEARLY BUSINESS REVENUE
AND JOBS
4HE REGION ALSO FORMS PART OF THE AGRICULTURAL
HEARTLAND OF THE CONTINENT AND MORE THAN PERCENT
OF THE TOTAL VALUE OF 53 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IS GROWN
IN THE 'REAT ,AKES STATES 4HAT INCLUDES MORE THAN
PERCENT OF THE NATIONS CORN AND PERCENT OF
ITS SOYBEANS !GRICULTURAL HARVESTS ON THE #ANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BASIN REPRESENT NEARLY PERCENT OF THAT
NATIONS OUTPUT AND TOTAL FARM CASH RECEIPTS IN
/NTARIO EXCEED THOSE FROM ALL OTHER PROVINCES IN
#ANADA EXCEPT !LBERTA
!LTHOUGH FORESTRY CONTRIBUTES LESS TO THE REGIONAL
ECONOMY THAN INDUSTRY OR AGRICULTURE LOCALLY IMPOR
TANT FORESTRY SECTORS REMAIN &OR EXAMPLE THE FOREST
PRODUCTS INDUSTRY IN /NTARIO EMPLOYED MORE THAN
PEOPLE AND GENERATED RECEIPTS OF MORE THAN
BILLION #DN IN THE LATE S )N 7ISCONSIN
IN PULP PAPER WOOD PRODUCTS MANUFACTURING
AND OTHER FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES EMPLOYED WORKERS AND GENERATED MORE THAN BILLION 53
IN SHIPMENTS
4HE SERVICES SECTOR WHICH INCLUDES MANY TOURISM
RECREATION AND ENVI 1 , Ê Î
*œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê
>˜}iʈ˜Ê̅iÊ
RONMENTRELATED ENTER Ài>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜Ê­£™xäqÓä䣮
PRISES HAS GROWN IN
CREASINGLY IMPORTANT AND
IS NOW ONE OF THE LARGEST
ECONOMIC SECTORS IN THE
REGION 4HE 'REAT ,AKES
THEMSELVES REPRESENT THE
MAJOR RECREATION AND
TOURISM ATTRACTION IN
MIDDLE !MERICA )NDI
ANA $UNES .ATIONAL
,AKESHORE AND 3LEEPING
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎ{
"EAR $UNES .ATIONAL vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
,AKESHORE IN -ICHIGAN
EACH HOSTED MORE THAN 1 , Ê {
ONE MILLION VISITORS IN /…iÊ7œÀ`½ÃÊ/…ˆÀ`‡>À}iÃÌÊVœ˜œ“ÞÊ
­ˆ˜Êˆˆœ˜ÃʜvÊ1-ʜ>Àî
)N /NTARIO
PARKS FROM 0OINT 0ELEE TO
,AKE 3UPERIOR DREW MORE
THAN MILLION VISITORS
ALTOGETHER )N ADDITION
CROWDS OF SUMMER VACA
TIONERS mOCK TO THE MANY
SMALL INLAND LAKES OF
.ORTHERN -ICHIGAN
-INNESOTA /NTARIO AND
7ISCONSIN )N WINTER
TOO LARGE NUMBERS OF -iiÊ«>}iÊÎ{
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
VISITORS ARRIVE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR DOWNHILL AND CROSS
COUNTRY SKIING AND SNOWMOBILING -ORE THAN MILLION PEOPLE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES STATES PARTICIPATE
IN lSHING HUNTING OR WILDLIFE WATCHING &IGURE ACTIVITIES THAT BRING BILLION 53 IN SALES
ANNUALLY )N /NTARIO TRAVEL AND TOURISM BROUGHT
IN MORE THAN BILLION #DN IN Փ>˜Ê*ÀiÃÃÕÀiÃʜ˜ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Êi>Ì…Ê>˜`Ê-iÀۈViÃ
4
HE WELLBEING OF PEOPLE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
REGION DEPENDS ON THE HEALTHY FUNCTIONING
OF ECOSYSTEMS AND THE SERVICES THEY PROVIDE
3OME OF THESE SERVICES ARE EASILY VALUED BECAUSE THEY
ARE BOUGHT SOLD OR TRADED #LEARLY AGRICULTURE FOR
ESTRY TOURISM AND OUTDOOR RECREATION RELY DIRECTLY
ON THE VITALITY OF BOTH NATURAL AND MANAGED ECO
SYSTEMS AND THE PLANT AND ANIMAL COMMUNITIES THEY
HARBOR /THER ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES HAVE NOT BEEN
ASSIGNED ANY DIRECT ECONOMIC VALUE YET THEY SUPPLY
VITAL SUPPORT SERVICES SUCH AS AIR AND WATER PURIlCA
TION mOOD PROTECTION PEST CONTROL SOIL RENEWAL
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
'REAT L AKES %COSYSTEMS AND 0EOPLE
HABITAT AESTHETIC VALUES AND SUPPORT OF CULTURAL TRADI
PERCENT FROM NATURAL GAS AND PERCENT FROM COAL
TIONS ESPECIALLY FOR .ATIVE !MERICANS AND &IRST .ATIONS
4HE PACE OF LANDUSE CHANGE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
GROUPS &OREST BIRDS AND AMPHIBIANS FOR EXAMPLE
TO OUTSTRIP POPULATION GROWTH IN THE REGION THANKS TO
SERVE HUMANS BY DEVOURING INSECTS THAT WOULD OTHER
URBAN SPRAWL AND VACATION HOME DEVELOPMENT &ROM
1,Êx
WISE HARM PEOPLE FORESTS
TO THE POPULATION OF NORTHEASTERN )LLINOIS
/…iÊ
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê
>À>VÌiÀʜvÊ̅iÊ,i}ˆœ˜
AND CROPS !MPHIBIANS
GREW BY ONLY PERCENT WHILE RESIDENTIAL LAND CON
MAY BE ESPECIALLY IMPOR
SUMPTION INCREASED BY NEARLY PERCENT )N -ICHI
TANT AS CONSUMERS OF
GAN THE POPULATION IS PROJECTED TO GROW PERCENT
MOSQUITOES IN SMALL
BETWEEN AND BUT URBANIZED LAND MAY
EPHEMERAL WETLANDS
INCREASE TO PERCENT DURING THAT PERIOD )N /N
THAT LACK lSH
TARIO THE GREATER 4ORONTO AREA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
4HESE AND OTHER
ITS URBANIZED AREA BY PERCENT BY THE YEAR ECOLOGICAL SERVICES AND
-UCH OF THE LAND NOT TAKEN UP BY URBAN SPRAWL IS
THE ECOSYSTEMS AND SPE
GIVEN TO AGRICULTURE AND ALMOST HALF OF THE LAND IN
CIES THAT SUPPLY THEM
THE 'REAT ,AKES STATES HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO CROP
FACE INCREASING PRESSURE
lELDS PASTURES AND DAIRY FARMS
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎ{
NOT ONLY FROM HUMAN
#ONVERTING LAND FROM FOREST OR GRASSLAND TO FARMS
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGES
HOUSES SHOPPING MALLS OR FACTORIES NOT ONLY RESULTS
BUT FROM MANY DIRECT HUMAN DISTURBANCES AS WELL
IN OUTRIGHT LOSS OF HABITAT FOR PLANT AND ANIMAL SPECIES
4HESE INCLUDE LAND DEVELOPMENT AND LANDUSE CHANGE
BUT ALSO FRAGMENTS THE LANDSCAPE LEAVING ISLANDS OF
DISCHARGES OF POLLUTANTS INTO THE AIR AND WATER TIMBER
NATURAL HABITAT ISOLATED IN A SEA OF HUMAN DEVELOP
HARVESTING MINING INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE TOURISM
MENT 4HESE HABITAT REMNANTS MAY BE TOO SMALL AND
AND EVEN SHIPPING AN ACTIVITY RESPONSIBLE FOR INTRO
DEGRADED TO SUSTAIN HEALTHY PLANT AND ANIMAL POPULA
DUCING THE ZEBRA MUSSEL AND OTHER DAMAGING NON
TIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN ROADS FENCES AND OTHER HUMAN
NATIVE INVASIVE SPECIES INTO THE 'REAT ,AKES !S THE
STRUCTURES CREATE BARRIERS TO MIGRATION BETWEEN THEM
POPULATION OF THE REGION GROWS THESE DIRECT STRESSES
,ANDSCAPE FRAGMENTATION ALSO MAKES IT MORE DIFlCULT
WILL INCREASE SO TOO WILL THE REGIONS CONTRIBUTION TO
FOR SPECIES TO MIGRATE TO SUITABLE NEW HABITATS AS THE
CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND INDIRECTLY CLIMATE
CLIMATE SHIFTS
4HE SIX 'REAT ,AKES STATES USE AN ESTIMATED 5RBAN DEVELOPMENT GREATLY MODIlES LOCAL HYDROL
QUADRILLION "45S 0* OF ENERGY EACH YEAR
OGY AS WELL BY INCREASING THE EXTENT OF IMPERVIOUS SUR
/F THIS TOTAL MORE THAN FACES SUCH AS ROOFS AND PAVE
PERCENT COMES FROM BURNING
MENT AND DESTROYING NATURAL
Vœœ}ˆV>ÊÃiÀۈViÃÊ>˜`Ê̅iÊiVœ‡
FOSSIL FUELS PERCENT FROM
WETLANDS AND mOODPLAINS THAT
PETROLEUM PERCENT FROM
ÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ>˜`ÊëiVˆiÃÊ̅>ÌÊÃÕ««ÞÊ WOULD OTHERWISE ABSORB STORM
COAL AND PERCENT FROM NATU
RUNOFF AND RECHARGE GROUND
̅i“Êv>Viʈ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê«ÀiÃÃÕÀiÊ
RAL GAS %LECTRICITY PRODUCTION
WATERS )NCREASING IMPER
IN THIS PART OF THE 5NITED 3TATES
vÀœ“ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊ VIOUS SURFACES IN A WATERSHED
DEPENDS HEAVILY ON BURNING
BY TO PERCENT CAUSES A
Փ>˜Ê`ˆÃÌÕÀL>˜Við
COAL WHICH EMITS THE MOST
TO PERCENT INCREASE IN
CARBON PER "45 -ORE THAN
SURFACE RUNOFF 0AVED SUR
PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY IN THE SIX STATES IS GENERATED
FACES ALSO BEHAVE AS HEAT SINKS RAISING AIR AND STREAM
BY COALlRED POWER PLANTS )N CONTRAST TO THE 53
WATER TEMPERATURES 2EMOVING STREAMBANK TREES
STATES IN THE REGION /NTARIO ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
EXACERBATES THIS HEATING /VERALL THE IMPACTS OF
IS HIGHLY DIVERSIlED WITH PERCENT FROM COAL AND
CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND ON HUMAN
NATURAL GAS &OR ITS TOTAL ENERGY NEEDS /NTARIO CUR
WELLBEING IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION WILL BE STRONGLY
RENTLY USES 0* QUADRILLION "45S PER YEAR
MODIlED BY CHANGES IN POPULATION URBANIZATION
INCLUDING PERCENT FROM PETROLEUM PRODUCTS LAND USE AND POLICY AND MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#(!04%2
4W O
3CENARIOS OF #HANGE
0AST #URRENT AND &UTURE #LIMATE
4
WO MAJOR FACTORS THAT SHAPE THE REGIONS
GAIN AND LOSE HEAT MORE SLOWLY THAN THE SURROUNDING
CLIMATE ARE ITS LOCATION IN THE MIDDLE OF
LAND SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE LAKES TEND TO
THE .ORTH !MERICAN LAND MASS AND THE
BE WARMER THAN THE LAND DURING THE LATE FALL AND EARLY
PRESENCE OF THE 'REAT ,AKES 4HE MIDCON
WINTER #ONVERSELY LAKE WATER REMAINS MUCH COLDER
TINENT MIDLATITUDES LOCATION FAR FROM THE OCEANS CON
THAN THE SURROUNDING LAND IN THE LATE SPRING AND
TRIBUTES TO LARGE SEASONAL SWINGS IN AIR TEMPERATURE
SUMMER 4HIS PHENOMENON MODERATES AIR TEMPERA
BETWEEN WARM SUMMERS AND COLD WINTERS )N THE
TURES NEAR THE SHORES OF THE LAKES 4HE INmUENCE OF
WINTER BITTERLY COLD !RCTIC AIR
THE LAKES IS MOST EVIDENT ON THE
MASSES OCCASIONALLY MOVE SOUTH
/…iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ̅i“ÃiÛiÃÊ ÊÊ DOWNWIND SIDES WHERE IT HELPS
WARD INTO THE REGION AND THE
TO CREATE MICROCLIMATES SUCH
i«ÊVÀi>ÌiÊ՘ˆµÕiÊVˆ“>̈VÊ
POLAR JET STREAM IS OFTEN LOCATED
AS THE WINEGROWING REGIONS
NEAR OR OVER THE REGION 4HE
OF SOUTHWESTERN -ICHIGAN AND
vi>ÌÕÀiÃ]ÊÃÕV…Ê>Ãʏ>Ži‡ivviVÌÊ
RESULT IS FREQUENT STORM SYSTEMS
/NTARIO 0ERHAPS THE BESTKNOWN
؜Üv>ÃÊ>˜`ʓˆVÀœVˆ“>ÌiÃÊ ASPECT OF THE 'REAT ,AKES INmU
THAT BRING CLOUDY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND RAIN OR SNOW )N
ENCE DOWNWIND HOWEVER IS
Li˜ivˆVˆ>ÊvœÀÊ܈˜iÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}°
THE SUMMER A SEMIPERMANENT
hLAKEEFFECTv SNOWFALL $URING
HIGHPRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
THE LATE FALL AND WINTER COLD
SUBTROPICAL !TLANTIC PUMPS WARM HUMID AIR INTO THE
AIR MASSES SWEEP ACROSS THE WARMER LAKES PICKING
REGION PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
UP HEAT AND MOISTURE AND GENERATING EXTREME SNOW
'REAT ,AKES BASIN
STORMS ON THE LEE SIDES OF THE LAKES ! LAKEEFFECT
4HE 'REAT ,AKES THEMSELVES HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWSTORM IN DUMPED SEVEN FEET OF SNOW
IMPACT ON THE CLIMATE "ECAUSE LARGE BODIES OF WATER
IN "UFFALO OVER SEVERAL DAYS
ˆ“>ÌiÊ/Ài˜`ÃÊ>˜`Ê6>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
.
ATURAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ARE DRIVEN BY
MANY FACTORS INCLUDING CHANGES IN SOLAR
RADIATION REACHING THE %ARTH THE DIRECTION
AND INTENSITY OF OCEAN CURRENTS THAT GENERATE %L .I®O
AND ,A .I®A EVENTS NATURAL mUCTUATIONS IN GREEN
HOUSE GASES SUCH AS WATER VAPOR #/ AND OZONE AND
CHAOTIC INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE EARTHCLIMATE SYSTEM
4HE STATE OF THE SCIENCE ON CURRENTLY OBSERVED CLIMATE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
3CENARIOS OF #HANGE
/…iʘÌiÀ˜>̈œ˜>Ê
œ˜Ãi˜ÃÕÃʜ˜Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i
/
iʘÌiÀ}œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì>Ê*>˜iÊœ˜Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iÊ­*
®]ʍœˆ˜ÌÞÊiÃÌ>LˆÃ…i`ÊLÞÊ̅iÊ7œÀ`Ê
iÌiœÀœœ}ˆV>Ê"À}>˜ˆâ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê >̈œ˜ÃʘۈÀœ˜“i˜ÌÊ*Àœ}À>““i]Ê«iÀˆœ`ˆV>ÞÊ
>ÃÃi“LiÃʅ՘`Ài`ÃʜvÊ̅iÊܜÀ`½Ãʏi>`ˆ˜}ʘ>ÌÕÀ>Ê>˜`ÊÜVˆ>ÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃÊ̜Ê>ÃÃiÃÃÊ̅iÊÃÌ>ÌiʜvÊ
̅iÊ}œL>ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ>˜`ʅœÜʈÌʈÃÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}°Ê˜ÊˆÌÃÊÓää£Ê>ÃÃiÃÓi˜Ì]Ê̅iÊ*
ÊVœ˜VÕ`i`\ʺ/…iÀiʈÃÊ
˜iÜÊ>˜`ÊÃÌÀœ˜}iÀÊiۈ`i˜ViÊ̅>ÌʓœÃÌʜvÊ̅iÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʜLÃiÀÛi`ʜÛiÀÊ̅iʏ>ÃÌÊxäÊÞi>ÀÃʈÃÊ>ÌÌÀˆLÕÌ>LiÊ
̜ʅՓ>˜Ê>V̈ۈ̈iÃ]»Ê>˜`ʺ“œÃÌʜvÊ̅iʜLÃiÀÛi`ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʜÛiÀÊ̅iʏ>ÃÌÊxäÊÞi>ÀÃʈÃʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ʅ>ÛiÊLii˜Ê
`ÕiÊ̜Ê̅iʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê}Àii˜…œÕÃiÊ}>ÃÊVœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>̈œ˜Ã°»Ê/…iÊ*
ÊVœ˜VÕȜ˜Ãʅ>ÛiÊLii˜ÊÀiˆ˜vœÀVi`Ê
LÞÊÀiVi˜ÌÊ>ÃÃiÃÓi˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>ÌiÃ]ʈ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}Ê>ÊÓää£ÊÀi«œÀÌÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊ >̈œ˜>ÊV>`i“ÞʜvÊ
-Vˆi˜ViÃÊ>˜`Ê>ÊÓääÓÊ1-Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÊV̈œ˜Ê,i«œÀÌÊ«ÕLˆÃ…i`ÊLÞÊ̅iÊi«>À̓i˜ÌʜvÊ-Ì>Ìi°
7ˆÌ…ˆ˜Ê̅iÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆvˆVÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌÞ]ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ`ˆÃVÕÃȜ˜Ãʅ>ÛiʘœÜʓœÛi`ÊLiޜ˜`Ê̅iʵÕiÃ̈œ˜ÃÊ
ºÃÊ̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}¶»Ê>˜`ʺÀiʅՓ>˜ÃÊVœ˜ÌÀˆLṎ˜}¶»Ê̜ʺœÜʏ>À}iÊ܈Ê̅iÊV…>˜}iÃÊLiʈ˜ÊVœ“ˆ˜}Ê
`iV>`iö»Ê>˜`ʺ7…>Ìʈ“«>VÌÃÊ܈ÊÜiÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜ViÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi¶»Ê/…iÊ*
ÊVœ˜VÕ`i`Ê
̅>ÌÊ̅iÀiʈÃÊ>ʅˆ}…Ê«ÀœL>LˆˆÌÞʜvÊÈ}˜ˆvˆV>˜ÌÊ}œL>ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}i]ʈ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê“œÃÌÊ
«>ViÃ]Ê`ÕÀˆ˜}ÊVœ“ˆ˜}Ê`iV>`iðÊ-ˆ“ˆ>ÀÞ]Ê̅iÊ >̈œ˜>ÊV>`i“ÞʜvÊ-Vˆi˜ViÃÊÃÌÕ`ÞÊVœ˜VÕ`i`Ê̅>Ì]Ê
º…Õ“>˜‡ˆ˜`ÕVi`ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}Ê>˜`Ê>ÃÜVˆ>Ìi`ÊÃi>‡iÛiÊÀˆÃiÃÊ>ÀiÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÊ̅ÀœÕ}…Ê̅iÊ
ÌÜi˜ÌއvˆÀÃÌÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ°»Ê1˜iÃÃÊ«œˆVÞÊ>V̈œ˜ÃÊ>ÀiÊÌ>Ži˜Ê˜œÜ]Ê}œL>ÞÊ>ÛiÀ>}i`ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊVœÕ`Ê
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊvÀœ“ÊÓÊ̜ʣ£cʜÛiÀÊ̅iÊVœ“ˆ˜}ÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ]Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>ÌiÃÊ>˜`Ê
ÜÕ̅iÀ˜Ê
>˜>`>ÊVœÕ`ÊLiÊ>ÃʓÕV…Ê>ÃÊxäÊ«iÀVi˜ÌʓœÀiÊ̅>˜Ê̅ˆÃÊ>ÛiÀ>}i°
/…ˆÃÊÀi«œÀÌÊLՈ`ÃÊÕ«œ˜Ê>˜`ÊiV…œiÃʓ>˜ÞÊVœ˜VÕȜ˜ÃÊvÀœ“ÊÀiVi˜ÌÊÀi«œÀÌÃʜ˜ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ
ˆ“«>VÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÓÎÊ>˜`ʈ˜ÌÀœ`ÕViÃʘiÜÊ>˜>ÞÃiÃÊ>˜`Ê«ÀœiV̈œ˜ÃÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê̅iʓœÃÌÊ
ÀiVi˜ÌÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iʓœ`iÃ°
CHANGES AND THEIR CAUSES IS DESCRIBED IN THE BOX ABOVE
,OCALLY OR REGIONALLY NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY
CAN BE QUITE LARGE GENERATING YEARTOYEAR DIFFERENCES
OF SEVERAL DEGREES IN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE OR SWINGS
FROM VERY WET YEARS TO DROUGHTS #URRENT CLIMATE
TRENDS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION MAY STILL REmECT SOME
NATURAL VARIABILITY SEE BOX P ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE
STRONGLY INDICATES THAT HUMANDRIVEN CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE THE PRIMARY CAUSE FOR THE CLIMATE
SHIFTS NOW BEING OBSERVED WORLDWIDE
#LIMATE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION IS GENERALLY
HIGHLY VARIABLE ON TIME SCALES OF ONE TO SEVERAL YEARS
A FACT THAT MAKES IT MORE DIFlCULT TO DETECT LONGTERM
TRENDS (OWEVER CAREFUL ANALYSES OF DATA FROM THE
.ATIONAL #LIMATE $ATA #ENTER – AND THE
-IDWEST #LIMATE #ENTER – REVEAL SOME
SIGNIlCANT SHIFTS IN TEMPERATURE TOTAL PRECIPITATION
AND EXTREME EVENTS IN RECENT DECADES
s 4EMPERATURES OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES HAVE
RANGED FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
THAN AVERAGE )N THE PAST FOUR YEARS HOWEVER
ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED TO —&
TO —# WARMER THAN THE LONGTERM AVERAGE AND
UP TO —& —# ABOVE AVERAGE IN WINTER 4HIS RECENT
WARMING IS COMPARABLE IN MAGNITUDE TO WARM
PERIODS DURING THE S AND S &IGURE A
s 4HE PAST TWO DECADES HAVE SEEN THE HOTTEST MONTHS
IN RECORDED HISTORY ALTHOUGH EXTENDED HEAT WAVES
SEVEN DAYS OR LONGER HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY INFRE
QUENT SINCE THE S ! FEW EPISODES OF EXTREME
COLD OCCURRED IN THE S BUT MOST YEARS SAW
A LESSENING OF COLD WAVES
s 4HE LAST SPRING FREEZE HAS BEEN OCCURRING PROGRES
SIVELY EARLIER AND CURRENT DATES ARE APPROXIMATELY
ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
>ÌÕÀ>Ê6>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞ]ʜ˜}‡/iÀ“Ê
>˜}iÃ]Ê
>˜`Ê̅iÊ
>i˜}iʜvÊ*Ài`ˆV̈œ˜
ˆ“>ÌiÊV>˜ÊLiʅˆ}…ÞÊÛ>Àˆ>Li°ÊœÀÊ>Ê}ˆÛi˜ÊÞi>À]Ê̅iÊ>˜˜Õ>ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊV>˜ÊÛ>ÀÞÊLÞÊ
xcÊ­Îc
®ÊvÀœ“Ê̅iʏœ˜}‡ÌiÀ“Ê“i>˜Ê­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÈ>®°Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊÛ>ÀˆiÃÊiÛi˜Ê“œÀiÊÈ}˜ˆvˆV>˜ÌÞÊ
vÀœ“ÊÞi>ÀÊ̜ÊÞi>ÀÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÈL®°Ê
>ÌÕÀ>ÊÛ>Àˆ>̈œ˜Ãʈ˜ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ>ÀiÊVi>ÀÞÊÃÕLÃÌ>˜Ìˆ>]ÊLÕÌʜ˜iÊVÀˆÌˆV>ÊVœ“«>ÀˆÃœ˜ÊˆÃÊLiÌÜii˜ÊŜÀ̇ÌiÀ“Ê
Û>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞÊ>˜`Ê̅iʏœ˜}‡ÌiÀ“ÊV…>˜}iÃÊ̅>Ìʅ>ÛiʜVVÕÀÀi`ÊȘViÊ̅iʏ>ÃÌʈViÊ>}i°ÊÕÀˆ˜}Ê̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊÓä]äääÊ
Þi>ÀÃ]Ê̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ>Ài>ʅ>ÃÊV…>˜}i`Êi˜œÕ}…Ê̜Ê>ÌiÀÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜>Ê`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜ÊœvÊ
vœÀiÃÌÃ]Ê«À>ˆÀˆiÃ]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊÛi}iÌ>̈œ˜ÊÌÞ«iÃÊ`À>“>̈V>Þ]Ê>˜`Ê̅ˆÃÊV…>˜}iÊÜ>ÃÊ`ÀˆÛi˜ÊLÞÊ>ʙÊ̜ʣ£cÊ
­xÊ̜ÊÈc
®ÊV…>˜}iʈ˜ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi°Ê*ÕÌʈ˜Ê̅iÃiÊÌiÀ“Ã]Ê̅iÊVÕÀÀi˜ÌÊ«ÀœiV̈œ˜ÃÊvœÀÊ>ÊxÊ̜ÊÓäcÊ
­ÎÊ̜ʣ£c
®ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜Êˆ˜ÊiÃÃÊ̅>˜Ê£ääÊÞi>ÀÃÊŜՏ`ÊÀˆ˜}ÊLiÃʜvÊ>>À“°Ê
/…iÊV…>i˜}iʈ˜ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ«Ài`ˆV̈œ˜ÊˆÃÊ̜Ê`iÌiÀ“ˆ˜iÊ܅i̅iÀÊ̅iÀiÊ܈ÊLiʏœ˜}iÀ‡ÌiÀ“Ê
ÌÀi˜`Ãʈ˜ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiʜÀÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]Ê>˜`Ê܅i̅iÀÊ̅œÃiÊÌÀi˜`ÃÊ܈ÊLiÊ>VVœ“«>˜ˆi`ÊLÞÊ>ÊV…>˜}iÊ
ˆ˜ÊÛ>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞ°Ê-Vˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃʘœÜÊLiˆiÛiÊ܈̅ʅˆ}…ÊVœ˜vˆ`i˜ViÊ̅>ÌÊLœÌ…ÊV…>˜}iÃÊ܈ÊœVVÕÀ\ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ`>ˆÞÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>ÀiÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊÀˆÃiÊÅ>À«ÞʜÛiÀÊ̅iʘiÝÌÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÈ>®]Ê>˜`Ê>Ì…œÕ}…Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆ‡
Ì>̈œ˜ÊˆÃÊVÕÀÀi˜ÌÞʵՈÌiÊÛ>Àˆ>Li]Ê̅iÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvÊiÝÌÀi“iÊiÛi˜ÌÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÀ>ˆ˜Ã̜À“ÃÊ>˜`Ê`ÀœÕ}…ÌÃ
ˆÃʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ʈ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
1,ÊÈ
1,ÊÈ
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎÈ
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎÇ
"LÃiÀÛi`Ê>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÊ
ˆ˜ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ>ˆÞÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
­ÛiÀ>}i`Ê"ÛiÀʘ̈ÀiÊ,i}ˆœ˜®
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
S 'ROWING SEASONS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO LENGTH
EN IN THE PAST TWO DECADES
s "OTH SUMMER AND WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS GEN
ERALLY BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PAST THREE DECADES
MAKING THIS THE WETTEST PERIOD OF THE TWENTIETH
CENTURY &IGURE B (OWEVER WATER LEVELS IN THE
'REAT ,AKES WERE HIGHER DURING THE MID TO LATTER
"LÃiÀÛi`Ê>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÊ
ˆ˜ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ>ˆÞÊ*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê
­ÛiÀ>}i`Ê"ÛiÀʘ̈ÀiÊ,i}ˆœ˜®
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
NINETEENTH CENTURY INDICATING EVEN WETTER CON
DITIONS THEN
s /VER THE PAST FIVE DECADES THE FREQUENCY OF HOUR AND DAY INTENSE RAINFALL EVENTS WHICH RE
SULT IN FLOODING OF STREAMS AND RIVERS HAS BEEN FAIRLY
HIGH RELATIVE TO THE LONGTERM AVERAGE &IGURE # / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
3CENARIOS OF #HANGE
ˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê,iVœÀ`ÃʜvÊ
>˜}i\Ê
>ŽiÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]ÊViÊ
œÛiÀ]Ê>˜`Ê7>ÌiÀÊiÛiÃ
"
ECAUSE THE 'REAT ,AKES ARE CRITICALLY IMPORTANT
TO THE REGIONAL ECONOMY EXCELLENT RECORDS
HAVE BEEN KEPT OF VARIATIONS IN THEIR WATER
TEMPERATURE ICE COVER AND WATER LEVELS 4HESE LONG
TERM RECORDS HELP IN IDENTIFYING TRENDS THAT MAY
EXTEND INTO OR BE AMPLIlED IN THE FUTURE
1,ÊÇ
7>ÌiÀÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ
4HE KEY TRENDS OBSERVED FROM WATER TEMPERATURE
RECORDS OF THE 'REAT ,AKES AND OTHER INLAND LAKES
INCLUDE
ˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê/Ài˜`Ãʈ˜ÊÝÌÀi“iÊ
,>ˆ˜v>ÊÛi˜ÌÃÊ­£™Î£q£™™È®
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎx
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
1,Ên
>˜}iʈ˜Ê/ˆ“ˆ˜}ʜvÊ>ŽiÊ
ÀiiâiÃÊ>˜`Ê/…>ÜÃ
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎx
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
s )NCREASES IN NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPERATURES
AT FIVE OF SEVEN SITES IN
THE EASTERN 'REAT ,AKES
AREA HAVE LENGTHENED
THE PERIOD OF SUMMER
STRATIFICATION OF THE
LAKES BY ONE TO SIX DAYS
PER DECADE 3TRATIFICA
TION IS THE LAYERING AND
SEPARATION OF WARMER
SURFACE WATERS FROM
COOLER BOTTOM WATERS
A PHENOMENON THAT
PREVENTS TURNOVER AND
OXYGENATION OF BOTTOM
WATERS
s )NCREASINGLY WARMER
WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN SPRING
AND FALL OVER THE LAST
YEARS AND SUMMER
WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO INCREASED THOUGH
LESS DRAMATICALLY
s ,OCAL TRENDS IN
WATER TEMPERATURE COR
RELATE WITH TRENDS IN
GLOBAL MEAN AIR TEMPER
ATURE SUGGESTING THAT
CLIMATE CHANGES IN
THE 'REAT ,AKES MAY TRACK CHANGES IN GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE
ÕÀ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊÝÌi˜ÌʜvÊ>ŽiÊVi
3HIFTS IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKES
AND STREAMS ARE HIGHLY SENSITIVE INDICATORS OF CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 4HUS THEY CAN PROVIDE EARLY
SIGNS OF ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
#ONSISTENT HISTORICAL CHANGES IN ICE COVER HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE INLAND LAKES AND IN THE BAYS OF THE
'REAT ,AKES THEMSELVES
s &REEZEUP HAS BEEN OCCURRING LATER IN FALL AND
ICEOUT THE LOSS OF ICE COVER IN SPRING EARLIER IN
SPRING FOR THE PAST CENTURY &IGURE AND THE
RATES OF CHANGE HAVE BEEN GREATER IN THE PAST YEARS THAN OVER THE PRECEDING YEARS 2ECENTLY
THE FALL FREEZE HAS BEEN MOVING LATER BY DAYS
PER DECADE AND SPRING BREAKUP EARLIER BY DAYS
PER DECADE
s 2ECORDS OVER THE PAST TO YEARS CONSISTENT
LY SHOW SHORTER PERIODS OF ICE COVER SEE BOX P
s #HANGES IN ICE COVER FOR THE INLAND LAKES ARE
GREATEST IN -ICHIGAN -INNESOTA AND 7ISCONSIN
&IGURE )N .EW 9ORK AND /NTARIO LAKEEFFECT
SNOWFALL CAN DELAY ICE BREAKUP ALTHOUGH IT DOES
NOT INFLUENCE THE FALL FREEZE DATE )N THE 'REAT
,AKES THEMSELVES THE EXTENT OF ICE COVER HAS BEEN
HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM TO THE PRESENT WITH NO
LONGTERM TREND HOWEVER IN RECENT YEARS THE
'REAT ,AKES HAVE HAD LITTLE ICE COVER
s /CCURRENCES OF UNUSUALLY EXTENSIVE ICE COVER HAVE
DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS WHILE PERIODS OF GREATLY
REDUCED OR NO ICE COVER HAVE BECOME MORE FRE
QUENT )N THE WINTER OF – FOR EXAMPLE
A NUMBER OF INLAND .EW 9ORK LAKES WITH A HISTORY
OF ICE COVER DID NOT FREEZE
s 9EARTOYEAR VARIATIONS IN ICE COVER ARE ASSOCIATED
IN PART WITH LARGESCALE CLIMATE DRIVERS SUCH AS
%L .I®O THE .ORTH !TLANTIC /SCILLATION AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE !LEUTIAN LOW 4HESE DRIVERS CAN IN
TURN BE INFLUENCED BY THE BUILDUP OF HEATTRAPPING
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
"˜Ê/…ˆ˜ÊViʈ˜Ê>`ˆÃœ˜
/
œÕÃ>˜`ÃʜvÊۈÈ̜ÀÃÊ̜Ê>`ˆÃœ˜]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]ÊÃÌÀœi`ʜ˜Ê̅iÊ؜܇VœÛiÀi`ʈViʜvÊ>Žiʜ˜œ˜>Ê
ˆ˜Êi>ÀÞÊiLÀÕ>ÀÞÊÓääÓ]Êi˜œÞˆ˜}Ê}ˆ>˜ÌʎˆÌiÃÊÅ>«i`ʏˆŽiÊ«i˜}Ո˜Ã]ʏœLÃÌiÀÃ]ÊÃÌ>ÀÃ]Ê>˜`ÊiÛi˜Ê
V>̅i`À>Ê܈˜`œÜðÊÌÊÜ>ÃÊ̅iʈ˜ÌiÀ˜>̈œ˜>ÊˆÌiÃʜ˜ÊViÊviÃ̈Û>]Ê>Ê܈˜ÌiÀʅˆ}…ˆ}…Ìʈ˜Ê>`ˆÃœ˜Ê
>˜`Ê>ʓ>}˜iÌÊvœÀÊÃiÀˆœÕÃʎˆÌiÊvˆiÀÃÊvÀœ“Ê>ÀœÕ˜`Ê̅iÊܜÀ`°Ê/…>ÌÊÞi>À]ʅœÜiÛiÀ]Ê̅iʎˆÌiÃÊÜiÀiʘœÌÊ
vÞˆ˜}Ê>LœÛiÊ̅iˆÀÊÕÃÕ>ÊÈÌiʜ˜Ê̅iÊvÀœâi˜Ê>Žiʈ˜ÊvÀœ˜Ìʜvʜ˜œ˜>Ê/iÀÀ>Viʘi>ÀÊ̅iÊÃÌ>ÌiÊV>«ˆÌœ°Ê/…iÊ
ˆViÊ̅iÀiÊÀi“>ˆ˜i`Ê`>˜}iÀœÕÏÞÊ̅ˆ˜]Ê܈̅ʜ«i˜ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊŜ܈˜}ʘi>ÀÊ̅iÊŜÀi°Ê˜ÃÌi>`Ê̅iÊviÃ̈Û>Ê
>`Ê̜ÊLiʓœÛi`ÊÃiÛiÀ>Ê“ˆiÃÊ>ÀœÕ˜`Ê̅iʏ>ŽiÊ̜Ê>˜Ê>Ài>Ê܈̅ÊÃ>viÀʈVi°Ê
ViÊvˆÃ…iÀ“i˜]ʈViÊLœ>ÌiÀÃ]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊ܈˜ÌiÀÊÀiVÀi>̈œ˜ˆÃÌÃʜ˜Ê>`ˆÃœ˜½ÃÊvœÕÀʏ>ŽiÃÊÜiÀiʘœÌÊÜʏÕVŽÞÊ
̅>ÌÊ܈˜ÌiÀ°Ê/…iʈViLœ>ÌÊÀi}>ÌÌ>ʅ>`Ê̜ÊLiʓœÛi`ʜvvÊ>Žiʜ˜œ˜>ÊVœ“«iÌiÞ°Ê"˜Ê>ŽiÊi˜`œÌ>]Ê
̅iʏ>À}iÃÌʜvÊ̅iÊvœÕÀʏ>ŽiÃ]Ê܅iÀiʈViÊvˆÃ…iÀ“i˜Êˆ˜Ê̅iÊ£™näÃÊÜiÀiʏœ}}ˆ˜}ÊÇä]äääÊ̜ʣää]äääÊ
œÕÀÃÊi>V…Ê܈˜ÌiÀ]ʈViÊvˆÃ…ˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÃÊۈÀÌÕ>ÞÊiˆ“ˆ˜>Ìi`°Ê-˜œÜ“œLˆˆ˜}]ʈViLœ>̈˜}]Ê>˜`ÊΈˆ˜}ÊÜiÀiÊ
ȓˆ>ÀÞÊVÕÀÌ>ˆi`°
/…iÊ܈˜ÌiÀʜvÊÓä䣕ÓääÓÊ«ÀœÛˆ`iÃÊ>Ê}ˆ“«ÃiʜvÊ̅iÊvÕÌÕÀiÊvœÀÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌÃʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜]Ê
܅iÀiÊ̅iÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊiÝÌi˜ÌʜvʈViÊVœÛiÀʅ>ÛiÊLii˜Ê`iVˆ˜ˆ˜}ÊvœÀʓœÀiÊ̅>˜Ê>ÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ°Ê"˜Ê>ŽiÊ
i˜`œÌ>]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]Ê̅iÊ>ÛiÀ>}iÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvʈViÊVœÛiÀʅ>ÃÊ`iVÀi>Ãi`ÊvÀœ“Ê>LœÕÌÊvœÕÀʓœ˜Ì…Ãʈ˜Ê
̅iʓˆ`‡£nääÃÊ̜Ê>LœÕÌÊ̅Àiiʓœ˜Ì…ÃÊLÞÊ̅iʏ>ÌiÊ£™™äðΣÊ/…iÊiÝÌÀi“iÊV>“iʈ˜ÊÓä䣕ÓääÓ]Ê܅i˜Ê
>ŽiÊi˜`œÌ>ʅ>`Ê̅iÊŜÀÌiÃÌʈViÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœLÃiÀÛi`ÊȘViÊ£nxÎ\ʈViÊVœÛiÀʏ>ÃÌi`ʜ˜ÞÊÓ£Ê`>ÞÃÊ
­ˆ}ÕÀiʙ>®°Ê"˜Ê>Žiʜ˜œ˜>]Ê̜œ]Ê̅iʓi>˜Ê`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvʈViÊVœÛiÀʅ>ÃÊ`iVˆ˜i`ÊvÀœ“Ê££{Ê`>ÞÃʈ˜Ê
̅iÊ£nÇäÃÊ̜ÊnÓÊ`>ÞÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ£™™äðÊ
/…iÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜Õˆ˜}Ê`iVˆ˜iʈ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀʈViÊVœÛiÀÊ«œÀÌi˜`ÃÊ>ÊÃiÛiÀiÊVՏÌÕÀ>ÊňvÌÊvœÀÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜]Ê܅iÀiÊ
܈˜ÌiÀÊv՘ʜ˜ÊˆViʅ>Ãʏœ˜}ÊLii˜Ê>˜Êˆ˜Ìi}À>Ê«>ÀÌʜvÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌýÊÃi˜ÃiʜvÊ«>ViÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiʙL®°Ê7…ˆiÊ̅iÊ
՘vÀœâi˜Ê>ŽiÃÊ>ÀiÊ>VViÃÈLiʓœÃ̏ÞÊ̜ÊLœ>ÌiÀÃ]Ê̅iÊvÀœâi˜Ê>ŽiÃÊLiVœ“iÊ>Ê«>Þ}ÀœÕ˜`ÊvœÀÊ>]ÊvÀœ“Ê
v>“ˆˆiÃÊÜ>Žˆ˜}Ê`œ}ÃʜÀÊÎ>̈˜}Ê>˜`ÊV…ˆ`Ài˜Êvœ««ˆ˜}ʈ˜ÌœÊ̅iÊ؜ÜÊ̜ʓ>Žiʺ>˜}i»Êˆ“«Àˆ˜ÌÃÊ̜Ê
œLLވÃÌÃÊ܈̅ÊiÝÌÀ>Û>}>˜ÌʎˆÌiÃÊ>˜`ʈViÊÞ>V…ÌðʘÊVˆÌˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ>`ˆÃœ˜]Ê܅iÀiÊiÛi˜ÊˆViiÃÃÊ܈˜‡
ÌiÀÃÊܜՏ`ÊÀi“>ˆ˜ÊÜiÌÊ>˜`ÊVœ`]ʏœÃÌʈViÊ>V̈ۈ̈iÃÊ܈Ê˜œÌÊLiÊi>ȏÞÊÀi«>Vi`ÊLÞʜ̅iÀʜÕÌ`œœÀÊv՘°Ê
1,ʙ
ViÊ
œÛiÀÊÕÀ>̈œ˜Êœ˜Ê
>ŽiÊi˜`œÌ>]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜
1,ʙ
ˆÌiÃʜ˜ÊViÊ7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊiÃ̈Û>ÊÓääÓÊ
œ˜Ê>Žiʜ˜œ˜>]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜
-iiÊ«>}iÊΙ
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
-iiÊ«>}iÊÎn
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
3CENARIOS OF #HANGE
GREENHOUSE GASES 2ECENT ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT %L
.I®OS ARE BECOMING STRONGER AND THE INFLUENCE
OF %L .I®OS ON EARLIER ICE BREAKUP HAS INCREASED
IN RECENT YEARS
3HIFTS IN ICE COVER NOT ONLY SIGNAL A RESPONSE
TO CLIMATE CHANGE BUT ALSO DRIVE FURTHER ECOLOGICAL
SOCIAL AND CLIMATE IMPACTS 2EDUCED ICE COVER LEADS
TO GREATER EVAPORATION FROM OPEN WATER IN WINTER
WHICH CONTRIBUTES TO LOWER WATER LEVELS LOSS OF WINTER
RECREATION ON LAKES AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS DEPENDING ON AIR TEMPERATURE AND
WIND DIRECTION
>ŽiÊ7>ÌiÀÊiÛiÃÊ>˜`Ê-ÌÀi>“ʏœÜÃ
(ISTORICALLY WATER LEVELS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES HAVE BEEN
HIGHLY VARIABLE AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CLEAR TREND TOWARD
LOWER WATER LEVELS FROM TO THE PRESENT %VEN
THOUGH WATER LEVELS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES WERE VERY LOW
IN FOR INSTANCE LEVELS IN SEVERAL INLAND LAKES IN
7ISCONSIN ROSE DRAMATICALLY FROM TO LARGELY BECAUSE OF INCREASING SNOWFALL RISING GROUND
WATER LEVELS AND PRESUMED INCREASES IN GROUNDWATER
CONTRIBUTIONS )NDEED UNTIL THE LATE S THE
'REAT ,AKES THEMSELVES HAD EXPERIENCED THREE
DECADES OF EXTREMELY HIGH WATER LEVELS
7ATER LEVELS USUALLY RISE IN THE SPRING AS SNOWMELT
ENTERS THE LAKES AND DROP IN LATE SUMMER AND FALL AS
SURFACE WATER EVAPORATES AND THE WEATHER TURNS DRIER
$ESPITE A LACK OF OVERALL TRENDS IN WATER LEVEL THERE
HAVE BEEN TRENDS IN THE SEASONAL TIMING OF CHANGING
WATER LEVELS FROM THE S TO )N BOTH ,AKES
/NTARIO AND %RIE OVER THIS PERIOD THE SEASONAL RISES
AND FALLS OF WATER LEVEL ARE OCCURRING ONE MONTH
EARLIER THAN BEFORE WHILE IN ,AKE 3UPERIOR THE
MAXIMUM WATER LEVEL IS OCCURRING SLIGHTLY EARLIER IN
THE YEAR 4HESE TRENDS APPARENTLY RESULT FROM EARLIER
SNOWMELT AND EARLIER TAPERING OFF OF SUMMER RUNOFF
4HE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY SUMMER RAINSTORMS HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST YEARS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
REGION &IGURE P AND mOODING FROM THESE
DOWNPOURS WHICH SATURATE SOILS AND CAUSE RAPID
RUNOFF MAY BE INCREASING 4HE TREND TOWARD MORE
FREQUENT HEAVY RAINSTORMS APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED
mOODING IN SMALL AND MEDIUMSIZED STREAMS IN THE
CENTRAL 5NITED 3TATES FROM TO %VEN IF THE
CLIMATE TURNS DRIER IN THE FUTURE INCREASED mOODING OF
STREAMS AND EROSION OF LAKE SHORES IS LIKELY IF A GREATER
PROPORTION OF THE RAIN FALLS IN EXTREME STORM EVENTS
&LOODING IS ALSO EXACERBATED BY CONSTRUCTION OF ROADS
BUILDINGS AND OTHER IMPERVIOUS SURFACES THAT PREVENT
WATER FROM INlLTRATING THE SOIL
*ÀœiV̈œ˜ÃʜvÊÕÌÕÀiÊ
ˆ“>Ìiʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
&
OR MOST PEOPLE THE CRITICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE WILL BE THOSE THAT OCCUR AT LOCAL AND
REGIONAL SCALES 3OPHISTICATED GENERAL CIRCULA
TION MODELS '#-S OF THE %ARTHS CLIMATE SYSTEM ARE
THE BEST TOOLS FOR GLOBAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS 7HILE
MOST OF THESE MODELS AGREE ON FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES
FOR THE %ARTH AS A WHOLE REGIONAL PREDICTIONS ARE DIF
lCULT BECAUSE THE EXTRAPOLATION FROM LARGE TO LOCAL
SCALES IS NOT PRECISE !LSO THE MODELSIMULATED VARI
ABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE INCREASE AS THE AREA
UNDER CONSIDERATION GROWS SMALLER &OR THIS REASON
THE CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS PRESENTED IN THIS REPORT
RELY ON MULTIPLE APPROACHES !NALYSES OF REGIONAL
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROJECTIONS FROM
SEVERAL OF THE MOST UPTODATE '#-S HAVE BEEN
COMBINED WITH YEARS OF HISTORICAL DATA FROM
THE -IDWEST #LIMATE #ENTER TO SERVE AS A GUIDE
TO POSSIBLE FUTURE CHANGES
4HIS REPORT USES RESULTS FROM TWO OF THE LATEST
GENERATION OF '#-S THE 0ARALLEL #LIMATE -ODEL
0#- DEVELOPED FOR THE 53 $EPARTMENT OF %NERGY
AT THE 53 .ATIONAL #ENTER FOR !TMOSPHERIC 2ESEARCH
AND THE (AD#- MODEL DEVELOPED AT THE 5+
-ETEOROLOGICAL /FlCES (ADLEY #ENTRE FOR #LIMATE
-ODELING
-ODEL SIMULATIONS OF HUMANINDUCED
CLIMATE CHANGE MUST RELY ON SOME PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS
ABOUT HOW MUCH #/ THE WORLD WILL BE EMITTING IN
THE FUTURE 4HESE EMISSION SCENARIOS ARE IN TURN
&OR ADDITIONAL TECHNICAL BACKGROUND ON THE MODELS AND SCENARIOS USED IN THIS REPORT AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL MODELING RESULTS SEE
WWWUCSUSAORGGREATLAKES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
BASED ON ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT SUCH FACTORS AS
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND CONTINUED RELIANCE ON
FOSSIL FUELS 4HE CLIMATE ANALYSES IN THIS REPORT ARE
BASED ON MODEL RUNS USING SCENARIOS THAT SPAN THE
RANGE OF BUSINESSASUSUAL PROJECTIONS MADE BY AN
)0## SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSION SCENARIOS 4HE
HIGHEMISSION SCENARIO PROJECTS RAPID ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND CONTINUED DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS
WHILE THE LOWEMISSION SCENARIO FORESEES A MOVE
TOWARD CLEAN EFlCIENT TECHNOLOGIES AND SUSTAIN
ABLE ECONOMIES
#LIMATE MODELS OFTEN DIFFER CONSIDERABLY IN THEIR
SENSITIVITY THAT IS IN THE DEGREE OF WARMING THEY
PROJECT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASES IN ATMOSPHERIC GREEN
HOUSE GASES 7HEN COMPARED WITH THE FULL RANGE OF
CLIMATE MODELS THE (AD#-S SENSITIVITY LIES IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE RANGE WHILE THE 0#-S SENSITIVITY IS
LOW INDICATING THAT THE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS PRESENTED
IN THIS REPORT CAPTURE MUCH OF THE RANGE OF PLAUSIBLE
CLIMATE FUTURES FOR THIS REGION
OVER THE 'REAT ,AKES 1 , Ê £ ä
*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
WILL BE TO —& TO ÕÀˆ˜}Ê-Փ“iÀÊ>˜`Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊLÞÊ
—# LOWER THAN TEM ÓäÇäqÓ䙙ʭ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä]Ê
PERATURE INCREASES OVER ÛiÀ>}iÊvœÀʜ܇Ê>˜`ʈ}…‡“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
-Vi˜>ÀˆœÃ®
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
REGION -ICHIGAN NORTH
ERN -INNESOTA 7IS
CONSIN AND /NTARIO
&IGURE )N WINTER
THE GREATEST WARMING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
HIGHER LATITUDES 4HIS
WILL BE REVERSED FOR
SUMMER WITH THE GREAT
EST CHANGES OCCURRING -iiÊ«>}iÊÎn
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION )LLINOIS )NDIANA 1 , Ê £ £
ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê-i>ܘʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ
-INNESOTA AND /HIO >ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜Ê­£™ääqÓ£ää®
4HE SEASONAL CYCLE OF
TEMPERATURE OVER THE
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi
REGION IS ALSO PROJECTED
4EMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
TO SHIFT WITH SUMMER
THE NEXT CENTURY AND TO VARY SUBSTANTIALLY BY SEASON
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
"Y – BOTH MODELS PROJECT THAT SPRING AND
WINTER WARMING MORE
SUMMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION ARE
THAN SPRING AND FALL
LIKELY TO BE TO —& TO —# ABOVE CURRENT AVER
4HESE PROJECTED
AGES 0ROJECTIONS OF FALL AND WINTER TEMPERATURE CHANGE
CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DECADES ARE AMBIGUOUS WITH WARM
PATTERNS ARE CONSISTENT
ING NOT EVIDENT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY "Y
WITH RECENT TRENDS IN
THE END OF THE CENTURY HOWEVER SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERA
GROWING SEASON LENGTH
TURE INCREASES ARE EXPECTED IN ALL SEASONS &IGURE AND DATES OF lRST AND LAST -iiÊ«>}iÊΙ
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
4HE (AD#- MODEL PROJECTS THAT WINTER TEMPERA
FROST (ISTORICAL DATA SHOW
TURE INCREASES AVERAGED OVER THE PERIOD –
THAT THE LONGEST GROWING SEASONS OCCURRED IN THE S
WILL RANGE FROM TO —& TO —# IF THE LOWEMIS
&IGURE #OMPARED WITH THE TURN OF THE CENTURY
SION SCENARIO PREVAILS AND TO —& TO —# FOR
THE GROWING SEASONS TODAY ARE ABOUT ONE WEEK LONGER
THE HIGHEMISSION SCENARIO 3UMMER TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE LAST SPRING FROST HAS BEEN OC
ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE EVEN
CURRING EARLIER -ODEL PRO
MORE FOR THE HIGHEMISSION
JECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
˜ÊiÃÃÊ̅i˜Ê̅ÀiiÊ`iV>`iÃ]Ê
SCENARIO TO —& TO
LENGTH OF THE GROWING
—# BUT SLIGHTLY LESS FOR THE
ëÀˆ˜}Ê>˜`ÊÃՓ“iÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO
LOW SCENARIO TO —& TO
INCREASE AND BY THE END
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ OF THE CENTURY IT MAY BE
—#
7ARMING IS EXPECTED TO
̜ÊLiÊÎÊ̜Ê{cÊ­£°xÊ̜ÊÓc
®Ê>LœÛiÊ TO WEEKS LONGER THAN
VARY ACROSS THE REGION 4EM
THE – AVERAGE
VÕÀÀi˜ÌÊ>ÛiÀ>}ið
PERATURE INCREASES CENTERED
&IGURE 4HE DATE OF
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
3CENARIOS OF #HANGE
1,Ê£Ó
*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê
ÕÀˆ˜}Ê-Փ“iÀÊ>˜`Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊLÞÊ
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙ʭ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä]Ê
ÛiÀ>}iÊvœÀʜ܇Ê>˜`ʈ}…‡“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
-Vi˜>ÀˆœÃ®
LAST SPRING FROST IS
PROJECTED TO BE EARLIER
BY AS MUCH AS TO DAYS AND THE DATE OF
lRST AUTUMN FROST IS
PROJECTED TO BE LATER
BY UP TO DAYS
*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]Ê
ÝÌÀi“iÊÛi˜ÌÃ]Ê
>˜`Ê,՘œvv
"OTH THE LOW AND
HIGHEMISSION SCENARIOS
PROJECT THAT AVERAGE
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{ä
AVERAGE RISING TO vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
PERCENT BY THE END OF
1,Ê£Î
THE CENTURY &IGURE B
-i>ܘ>Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê
ÞViÊ
P #HANGES IN THE
­ˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê>Ãiˆ˜iÊ>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
SEASONAL PRECIPITATION
>˜}iÃ]Ê£ä‡>ÞÊ,՘˜ˆ˜}Êi>˜®Ê
CYCLE ARE LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER WITH WINTER AND
SPRING RAIN INCREASING
AND SUMMER RAIN DE
CREASING BY UP TO PERCENT 4HE LARGEST
PRECIPITATION INCREASES
DURING WINTER MONTHS
ARE EXPECTED AT HIGHER
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{£
LATITUDES AND UNDER THE
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
HIGHEREMISSION SCENARIO
&IGURE !LTHOUGH THIS MAY RESULT IN MORE SNOW
FALL WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
DECREASE IN THE AVERAGE DEPTH OF SNOW COVER DURING
THE WINTER )N SUMMER THE LARGEST DECREASES ARE EX
PECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION WHERE MOST AGRICULTURE IS CONCENTRATED 0RE
CIPITATION IS ALSO PROJECTED TO INCREASE DOWNWIND OF
THE 'REAT ,AKES PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE INmUENCE OF
THE LAKES ON LOCAL CONDITIONS UNDER WARMER TEMPERA
TURES 4OWARD THE END OF THE CENTURY SPRING AND FALL
MAY BE WETTER AND WINTER AND SUMMER DRIER ON
AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION RELATIVE TO TODAYS SEASONAL
PATTERNS &IGURE 4HE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY RAINSTORMS BOTH HOUR
AND MULTIDAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT CENTURY AND MAY DOUBLE BY &IGURES AND 4HE INTENSITY OF THESE EVENTS
MAY INCREASE THOUGH THIS IS ACCORDED A LOWER CON
lDENCE LEVEL AND WOULD BE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
RISK OF mOODING
0ERHAPS MOST IMPORTANT TO THE WELFARE OF THE
REGION WILL BE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER
DISTRIBUTION AND RESOURCES !S CLIMATE WARMS EVAPO
TRANSPIRATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE YEARROUND WITH
THE LARGEST RELATIVE INCREASES IN WINTER AND SPRING
%VAPOTRANSPIRATION IS SHORTHAND FOR THE PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATION FROM SOILS AND SURFACE WATERS AND TRANS
PIRATION OF MOISTURE FROM PLANTS BOTH OF WHICH RE
TURN WATER TO THE ATMOSPHERE 4HE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
PRECIPITATION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION GIVES AN INDI
/…iÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜Ã̜À“Ã]Ê
LœÌ…ÊÓ{‡…œÕÀÊ>˜`ʓՏ̈`>Þ]Ê܈Ê ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ
>“œÃÌÊViÀÌ>ˆ˜ÞÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÊ̜ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ
`ÕÀˆ˜}Ê̅iʘiÝÌÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞÊ>˜`ʓ>ÞÊ
`œÕLiÊLÞÊÓ£ää°
CATION OF HOW MUCH WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF INTO
STREAMS AND LAKES OR FOR RECHARGING GROUNDWATER SUP
PLIES /N AVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE END OF
THE CENTURY THE AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME OR PERHAPS INCREASE
FOR ALL SEASONS EXCEPT SUMMER )N SUMMER LESS RUNOFF
IS PREDICTED AND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION ,ARGE AREAS WHERE RUNOFF
IS REDUCED MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE -IDWEST DURING WIN
TER AND SUMMER AND IN THE CENTRAL 'REAT ,AKES REGION
DURING AUTUMN )N CONTRAST RUNOFF IS PROJECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION DURING SPRING AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN 'REAT ,AKES REGION DURING FALL
#HANGES IN THE AMOUNT OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
RUNOFF WILL ALSO AFFECT SOIL MOISTURE WHICH IS A KEY
FACTOR IN PLANT GROWTH AND SOIL PROCESSES 4HUS SOIL
MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE AS MUCH AS PER
CENT DURING WINTER IN SOME LOCALES BUT DECREASE RE
GIONALLY BY UP TO PERCENT IN SUMMER AND FALL RELA
TIVE TO THE n AVERAGE 4HIS SHIFT WILL FAVOR
CROPS AND ECOSYSTEMS THAT RELY ON RECHARGE OF WATER
LEVELS DURING THE WINTER MONTHS HOWEVER CROPS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
REQUIRING A CERTAIN LEVEL OF SUMMER RAINFALL AND SOIL
MOISTURE MAY COME UNDER SUBSTANTIAL STRESS AND
SOME WETLAND ECOSYSTEMS MAY DRY UP ENTIRELY
DURING SUMMERS
s "Y SOUTHERN /NTARIO SUMMERS MAY FEEL
MORE LIKE THOSE IN UPSTATE .EW 9ORK AND BY THE
END OF THE CENTURY SIMILAR TO THOSE IN NORTHERN
6IRGINIA TODAY
ˆ}À>̈˜}Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÃ
! DRAMATIC WAY OF VISUALIZING THE EFFECTS OF THESE
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS IS TO ESTIMATE WHERE /NTARIO AND
SELECTED 'REAT ,AKES STATES WILL HAVE hMOVEDv CLIMATI
CALLY OVER THE NEXT CENTURY 3UCH ANALYSES ARE LIMITED
OF COURSE TO AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND DO NOT CONSIDER
THE EXTREMES OR VARIABILITY IN PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES
4HEY ALSO DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT DIFFERENCES IN
MAJOR TOPOGRAPHICAL FEATURES FROM STATE TO STATE SUCH
AS THE !PPALACHIANS THE /ZARKS OR THE 'REAT ,AKES
4HAT SAID HERE ARE A FEW COMPARISONS BASED ON
PROJECTIONS OF SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION &IGURE /…iÊ*œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÊvœÀÊ-ÕÀ«ÀˆÃi
)N ADDITION TO THE GRADUAL LONGTERM TRENDS IN
CLIMATE JUST DISCUSSED IT
1,Ê£{
IS POSSIBLE THAT VERY ˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvÊi>ÛÞÊ,>ˆ˜‡
ABRUPT AND STRONG SHORT v>ÊÛi˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
TERM CHANGES IN CLIMATE
COULD OCCUR AS WELL !N
ABRUPT CHANGE IS ONE THAT
TAKES PLACE SO RAPIDLY AND
UNEXPECTEDLY WITHIN
YEARS TO DECADES THAT
HUMAN OR NATURAL SYS
TEMS HAVE DIFlCULTY ADAPT
ING !BRUPT CHANGES IN
PAST CLIMATE ARE WELL -iiÊ«>}iÊ{£
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
DOCUMENTED BY RECORDS
PRESERVED IN FOSSILS ICE 1 , Ê £ x
CORES AND LAKE SEDIMENTS *ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê-…ˆvÌÃÊ-ˆ}˜>Ê/ÀœÕLiÊ
0ATTERNS OF ABRUPT CHANGE vœÀÊ>À“iÀÃ
FROM GLACIAL TO INTER
GLACIAL PERIODS WERE COM
MON FOR EXAMPLE WITH
SUDDEN CHANGES IN THE
.ORTH !TLANTIC RAPIDLY
AFFECTING THE ENTIRE
.ORTHERN (EMISPHERE
INCLUDING THE 'REAT
,AKES REGION 4EMPER
ATURES SHOT UP BY AS -iiÊ«>}iÊ{Ó
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
MUCH AS —& —#
AND RAINFALL DOUBLED IN
1,Ê£È
A MATTER OF DECADES IN ˆ}À>̈˜}Ê
ˆ“>Ìi\Ê
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê
SOME REGIONS IN RE 7ˆ˜ÌiÀÃÊ>˜`Ê-Փ“iÀÃʈ˜Êˆ˜œˆÃÊ
SPONSE TO THE WARMING >˜`ʈV…ˆ}>˜Ê
OF .ORTH !TLANTIC SUR
FACE WATERS AFTER THE ICE
SHEETS MELTED
)N THE PAST ABRUPT
CHANGES OCCURRED MOST
OFTEN WHEN THE CLIMATE
SYSTEM WAS BEING FORCED
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{Ó
TO CHANGE RAPIDLY BY vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
s "Y A TYPICAL WINTER CLIMATE IN THE STATE
OF )LLINOIS CAN BE EXPECTED TO FEEL HOTTER AND DRIER
MUCH LIKE CURRENTDAY /KLAHOMA OR !RKANSAS
s "Y TODAYS -ICHIGAN WINTER CLIMATE IS
LIKELY TO BE REPLACED BY A CLIMATE SIMILAR TO THAT
IN /HIO TODAY
s 3UMMER CHANGES WILL APPEAR MORE QUICKLY "Y
)LLINOIS SUMMERS MAY RESEMBLE THOSE OF
/KLAHOMA OR !RKANSAS IN TERMS OF AVERAGE TEM
PERATURE AND RAINFALL (OWEVER BY THE END OF THE
CENTURY THE )LLINOIS SUMMER CLIMATE WILL GENERALLY
RESEMBLE THAT OF CURRENT EAST 4EXAS
s -ICHIGAN SUMMER WEATHER COULD BE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF /HIO IN A FEW DECADES WHILE BY THE END
OF THE CENTURY -ICHIGAN SUMMERS ARE LIKELY TO
RESEMBLE THOSE OF NORTHERN !RKANSAS TODAY
ÞÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ½ÃÊi˜`]ÊÃՓ“iÀÃʈ˜Ê ÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊÊ
ˆ˜œˆÃÊ܈Ê}i˜iÀ>ÞÊÀiÃi“LiÊ̅œÃiÊ
œvÊi>ÃÌÊ/iÝ>ÃÊ̜`>Þ]Ê܅ˆiʈV…ˆ}>˜Ê
ÃՓ“iÀÃÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ÊÀiÃi“LiÊ
̅œÃiÊÀŽ>˜Ã>ÃʘœÜÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜Við
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
3CENARIOS OF #HANGE
NATURAL FORCES SUCH AS METEOR IMPACTS OR MAJOR
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS .OW IT IS AGAIN FORCED TO CHANGE
RAPIDLY BUT BY A COMBINATION OF NATURAL AND HUMAN
FORCES ! RECENT REPORT ON ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE
CONCLUDED hGREENHOUSE WARMING AND OTHER HUMAN
ALTERATIONS OF THE EARTH SYSTEM MAY INCREASE THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE ABRUPT AND UNWELCOME REGION
AL OR GLOBAL CLIMATIC EVENTSv !BRUPT CHANGES IN
CLIMATE COULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS ON
THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION LEAVING EVEN LESS TIME FOR
SOCIETY THE ECONOMY AND NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS TO
ADAPT OR MITIGATE THE DAMAGE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#(!04%2
4HREE
%COLOGICAL 6ULNERABILITY TO #LIMATE
#HANGE !QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
4
HE 'REAT ,AKES REGION IS DISTINGUISHED BY
ITS ABUNDANT LAKES STREAMS AND WETLANDS
!LL OF THESE AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS WILL BE
AFFECTED IN SOME WAY BY THE DIRECT HUMAN
STRESSES AND HUMANDRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGES EXPLORED
IN #HAPTERS AND >ŽiÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
,
AKES IN THE REGION DIFFER WIDELY IN SIZE DEPTH
TRANSPARENCY AND NUTRIENT AVAILABILITY CHARAC
TERISTICS THAT FUNDAMENTALLY DETERMINE HOW
EACH LAKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE &IGURE
! WIDE VARIETY OF STUDIES HAVE FOCUSED ON THE
INLAND WATERS AND 'REAT ,AKES PROVIDING STRONG EVI
DENCE OF HOW THE WATERS HAVE CHANGED AND ARE LIKELY
TO CHANGE IN THE FUTURE
ˆ}…iÀÊ>ŽiÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ
7ARMER AIR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO INCREAS
ING WATER TEMPERATURES AND CHANGES IN SUMMER STRAT
IlCATION IN THE 'REAT ,AKES AND IN THE INLAND LAKES
AND STREAMS OF THE REGION %ARLIER MODEL STUDIES
PROJECT THAT SUMMER SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES IN
INLAND LAKES WILL INCREASE BY TO —& TO —#
0ROJECTIONS FOR DEEP WATER RANGE FROM A —& WARM
ING TO A COUNTERINTUITIVE —& COOLING 4HE RESPONSE
IN DEEP WATERS VARIES BECAUSE WARMING AIR TEMPERA
TURES CAN CAUSE A SMALL DEEP LAKE TO STRATIFY SOONER IN
SPRING AT A COOLER TEMPERATURE 0ROJECTED CHANGES IN
WATER TEMPERATURE WOULD BE EVEN GREATER USING THE
MORE RECENT CLIMATE SCENARIOS ON WHICH THIS REPORT IS
BASED ESPECIALLY BY /VERALL CHANGES IN TEM
PERATURE AND STRATIlCATION WILL AFFECT THE FUNDAMENTAL
PHYSICAL CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN LAKES
SEE BOX P (IGHER WATER TEMPERATURES FOR
EXAMPLE RESULT IN LOWER OXYGEN LEVELS
,OWER OXYGEN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALSO
PROMOTE GREATER MICRO 1 , Ê £ Ç
BIAL DECOMPOSITION AND “«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê>ŽiÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
SUBSEQUENT RELEASE OF
NUTRIENTS AND CONTAMI
NANTS FROM BOTTOM SEDI
MENTS 0HOSPHORUS RE
LEASE WOULD BE ENHANCED
AND MERCURY RELEASE AND
UPTAKE BY BIOTA WOULD
ALSO BE LIKELY TO INCREASE
/THER CONTAMINANTS
PARTICULARLY SOME HEAVY
METALS WOULD BE LIKELY
TO RESPOND IN A SIMILAR
FASHION (EAVY METALS
SUCH AS MERCURY BECOME
MORE SOLUBLE IN THE
ABSENCE OF OXYGEN /XY
GEN BINDS WITH THESE
ELEMENTS TO FORM IN
SOLUBLE COMPOUNDS THAT
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{Ó
SINK TO THE BOTTOM
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iÊ>˜`ʺi>`Ê<œ˜iûʈ˜Ê>ŽiÊÀˆiÊ
/
iÊv>ÊœvÊÓää£ÊLÀœÕ}…ÌÊÃÌ>À̏ˆ˜}Ê>˜`Ê`ˆÃVœÕÀ>}ˆ˜}ʘiÜÃÊ̜ÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌÃÊ>ÀœÕ˜`Ê>ŽiÊÀˆi°Ê
/iÃ̈˜}ÊÃÌ>̈œ˜Ãʈ˜Ê̅iʏ>Ži½ÃÊVi˜ÌÀ>ÊL>ȘÊÀi«œÀÌi`Ê̅iʓœÃÌÊÀ>«ˆ`ʜÝÞ}i˜Ê`i«ïœ˜Êˆ˜Ê˜i>ÀÞÊ
ÓäÊÞi>Àðʺ̽ÃʏˆŽiÊ}œˆ˜}ÊL>VŽÊ̜Ê̅iÊL>`ʜ`Ê`>ÞÃÊ܅i˜Ê>ŽiÊÀˆiÊÜ>ÃÊ`i>`]»Êœ˜iÊ>µÕ>̈VÊ
Lˆœœ}ˆÃÌÊ̜`Ê̅iÊ/œi`œÊ>`i°Ê/…iÊL>`ʜ`Ê`>ÞÃÊÜiÀiÊ̅iÊ£™ÈäÃÊ܅i˜Ê>ŽiÊÀˆiʅ>`ÊLii˜Ê>ÊLÕÌÊ
V…œŽi`Ê̜Ê`i>̅\ʓ>ÃÈÛiÊ«…œÃ«…œÀÕÃÊ«œṎœ˜Ê…>`ÊviÀ̈ˆâi`Ê>}>ÊLœœ“ÃÊ>˜`Ê̅iˆÀÊ`iV>ÞÊÜ>ÃÊÕȘ}Ê
Õ«Ê̅iÊ`ˆÃ܏Ûi`ʜÝÞ}i˜Ê˜ii`i`Ê̜ÊÃÕ««œÀÌÊvˆÃ…Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊ>µÕ>̈Vʏˆvi°Ê/…i˜]ʈ˜Ê£™ÇÓ]ʈ“«i“i˜‡
Ì>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ7>ÌiÀÊ+Õ>ˆÌÞÊ}Àii“i˜Ìʏi`Ê̜ÊLˆˆœ˜ÃʜvÊ`œ>ÀÃʈ˜Ê˜iÜÊÃiÜ>}iÊÌÀi>̓i˜ÌÊ
«>˜ÌÃ]ÊL>˜Ãʜ˜Ê«…œÃ«…>Ìiʏ>՘`ÀÞÊ`iÌiÀ}i˜Ì]ʘiÜÊv>À“ˆ˜}Ê«À>V̈ViÃÊ̅>ÌÊÀi`ÕVi`ÊviÀ̈ˆâiÀÊÀ՘œvv]Ê
>˜`ʜ̅iÀʓi>ÃÕÀiÃÊ̅>ÌÊ`À>Ã̈V>ÞÊVÕÌÊ«…œÃ«…œÀÕÃʈ˜«ÕÌÊ̜Ê>ŽiÊÀˆi°ÊÃÊ«…œÃ«…œÀœÕÃʏœ>`ˆ˜}Ê
`Àœ««i`]ÊÜÊ`ˆ`Ê̅iÊiÝÌi˜ÌÊ>˜`Ê`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ̅iÊÃՓ“iÀʺ`i>`Ê✘ið»Ê
1,Ê£n
>ŽiÊ-ÌÀ>̈wÊV>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊ
iÛiœ«“i˜Ìʜvʺi>`Ê<œ˜iû
7>ÃÊ̅iʓ>ÃÈÛiÊ`i>`Ê✘iʜvÊÓää£Ê>˜Ê>˜œ“>ÞʜÀÊ>Ê
ÌÀi˜`]ÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃÊ>˜`Ê«œˆVޓ>ŽiÀÃÊܜ˜`iÀi`¶Ê˜`Ê܅>ÌÊ
>`ÊV>ÕÃi`ʈÌÊ̅ˆÃÊ̈“i¶ÊÊVœ““ˆÌÌiiʜvÊ1-ÊVœ˜}ÀiÃÇ
“i˜ÊÌÀ>Ûii`Ê̜Ê̅iʏ>ŽiÊ̜ʈ˜ÛiÃ̈}>Ìi]Ê>˜`ÊÀiÃi>ÀV…iÀÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>ÌiÃÊ>˜`Ê
>˜>`>ʏ>՘V…i`Ê>ÊfÓʓˆˆœ˜Ê
ivvœÀÌÊ̜Êvˆ˜`Ê>˜ÃÜiÀðÊ/…iÊÃÕëiVÌi`ÊVՏ«ÀˆÌÃÊÀ>˜}i`Ê
vÀœ“ʜ✘iÊ`i«ïœ˜]Ê܅ˆV…Ê>œÜÃÊՏÌÀ>ۈœiÌʏˆ}…ÌÊ̜Ê
Ài>V…Ê`ii«iÀʈ˜ÌœÊ̅iÊÜ>ÌiÀÃ]Ê̜Ê̅iʈ˜Û>`ˆ˜}ÊâiLÀ>ʓÕÃÃiÃÊ
̅>ÌʘœÜʏˆ˜iÊ̅iʏ>ŽiÊLœÌ̜“Ê`œÜ˜Ê̜ʣääÊviiÌÊ­ÎäÊ
“iÌiÀî°ÊˆÃȘ}ÊvÀœ“Ê“œÃÌÊ`ˆÃVÕÃȜ˜Ã]ʅœÜiÛiÀ]ÊÜ>ÃÊ
̅iÊÀiVœ}˜ˆÌˆœ˜Ê̅>ÌÊ>ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ܈Ê“i>˜Ê
“œÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÊ>˜`ʏ>À}iÀÊ`i>`Ê✘iÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊvÕÌÕÀi°Ê
Ê`i>`Ê✘iʈÃÊ>˜Ê>Ài>ʜvÊÜ>ÌiÀpˆ˜Ê>ʏ>ŽiʜÀÊiÛi˜Êˆ˜Ê>Ê
«>ÀÌʜvÊ̅iʜVi>˜ÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊՏvʜvÊi݈VœÊœvvÊ̅iʓœÕ̅Ê
œvÊ̅iʈÃÈÃÈ««ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀp̅>ÌÊVœ˜Ì>ˆ˜ÃʘœÊœÝÞ}i˜Ê̜ÊÃÕ««œÀÌÊ
ˆvi°Êi>`Ê✘iÃÊvœÀ“Ê܅i˜ÊœÝÞ}i˜Êˆ˜Ê̅iÊÜ>ÌiÀʈÃÊVœ˜‡
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{Î
ÃՓi`ÊLÞʜÀ}>˜ˆÃ“Ã]ÊLÕÌÊ̅iÃiÊ✘iÃÊV>˜Êœ˜ÞÊ«iÀÈÃÌÊ
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
܅i˜Ê̅iÊÜ>ÌiÀʈÃʈ܏>Ìi`ÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊ>̓œÃ«…iÀiÊ>˜`Ê
̅ÕÃÊvÀœ“Ê>ÊÜÕÀViʜvʘiÜʜÝÞ}i˜°Ê/…ˆÃʈ܏>̈œ˜ÊœVVÕÀÃÊ
܅i˜ÊÜ>ÌiÀʈÃÊÃÌÀ>̈vˆi`p̅>ÌʈÃ]ʏ>ÞiÀi`Ê>˜`ÊÃi«>À>Ìi`Ê܈̅ÊÜ>À“iÀÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀÃÊ>V̈˜}Ê>ÃÊ>ʏˆ`Ê
œ˜Ê̜«ÊœvÊ̅iÊVœœiÀÊLœÌ̜“ÊÜ>ÌiÀÃ]ʈ܏>̈˜}Ê̅i“ÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊ>ˆÀÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊ£n>®°Ê
7…i˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊi˜`Ãʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê>˜`ÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀÃÊLiVœ“iÊvÀiiʜvʈVi]ʏ>ŽiÃÊÕÃÕ>ÞʓˆÝÊ
vÀœ“Ê̜«Ê̜ÊLœÌ̜“Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊi˜ÌˆÀiʏ>ŽiÊLiVœ“iÃÊÃ>ÌÕÀ>Ìi`Ê܈̅ʜÝÞ}i˜°Ê-œœ˜Ê>vÌiÀÊ̅ˆÃÊëÀˆ˜}ʓˆÝˆ˜}]Ê
œÜiÛiÀ]Ê̅iÊÃ՘ÊÜ>À“ÃÊ̅iÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀÃÊ>˜`ÊÃÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜ÊÃiÌÃʈ˜°Ê"˜ViÊ̅iʏ>ŽiʈÃÊÃÌÀ>̈vˆi`]Ê
œÝÞ}i˜ÊLi}ˆ˜ÃÊ̜Ê`iVÀi>ÃiÊ­…Þ«œÝˆ>®Êˆ˜ÊLœÌ̜“ÊÜ>ÌiÀÃ]Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊÀ>ViʈÃʜ˜Ê̜ÊÃiiÊ܅i̅iÀÊ>Ê̅iÊ
œÝÞ}i˜Ê܈ÊLiÊ`i«iÌi`Ê­>˜œÝˆ>®Ê>˜`Ê>Ê`i>`Ê✘iÊVÀi>Ìi`ÊLivœÀiÊ̅iʏ>ŽiÊ>}>ˆ˜Ê“ˆÝiÃÊvՏÞʈ˜Ê̅iÊ
>ÌiÊv>ÊœÀÊi>ÀÞÊ܈˜ÌiÀ°Ê/…iʓœÀiÊÀœÌ̈˜}ÊLˆœ“>ÃÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ`i>`Ê>}>iʈ˜Ê̅iÊÜ>ÌiÀ]Ê̅iʓœÀiʜÝÞ}i˜Ê
ˆÃÊVœ˜ÃՓi`°Ê˜ÊÀiVi˜ÌÊÞi>ÀÃ]ʜÝÞ}i˜ÊVœ˜ÃՓ«Ìˆœ˜Ê…>Ãʅ>`Ê̅iÊ>`Û>˜Ì>}iʈ˜Ê̅ˆÃÊÀ>ViÊLiV>ÕÃiÊ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
ŜÀÌiÀÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃʅ>Ûiʏi`Ê̜Êi>ÀˆiÀÊëÀˆ˜}ÊÃÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜Ê
ˆ˜Ê“>˜Þʏ>ŽiÃ]ʓi>˜ˆ˜}Ê̅>ÌÊ̅iʏ>ŽiÊLœÌ̜“ÊÀ՘ÃʜÕÌÊ
1,Ê£n
>ŽiʈV…ˆ}>˜ÊˆÃ…ʈ
œvʜÝÞ}i˜ÊiÛi˜Êܜ˜iÀʈ˜Ê̅iÊÃՓ“iÀ°ÊœÀÊiÝ>“«i]Ê
܈˜ÌiÀÃʜ˜Ê>ŽiÊÀˆiʅ>ÛiÊLii˜Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊŜÀÌiÀÊȘViÊ
̅iÊ £™ÈäÃ°Ê Ãœ]Ê ÀiVi˜ÌÊ ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÃÊ ˆ˜Ê ̅iÊ ˜i>À‡Ã…œÀiÊ
Ü>ÌiÀÊ Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ vœÀÊ vœÕÀÊ œvÊ Ì…iÊ vˆÛiÊ Ài>ÌÊ >ŽiÃÊ
ˆ˜`ˆV>ÌiÊ̅>ÌÊ̅iˆÀÊÃՓ“iÀÊÃÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜Ê«iÀˆœ`Ãʅ>ÛiÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊLÞʜ˜iÊ̜ÊÈÝÊ`>ÞÃÊ«iÀÊ`iV>`i°Óx
˜Ê>ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi]Ê̅iÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊÃՓ“iÀÊÃÌÀ>̈‡
vˆV>̈œ˜Ê ܈Ê ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ ˆ˜Ê >Ê ̅iÊ >ŽiÃÊ ˆ˜Ê ̅iÊ Ài}ˆœ˜°Ê
7>À“ˆ˜}ÊVœÕ`Ê>ÃœÊi>`Ê̜Ê>Ê«>À̈>Ê`ˆÃ>««i>À>˜ViʜvÊ
̅iÊv>Ê>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}Ê«iÀˆœ`ÃʜvÊVœ“«iÌiʓˆÝˆ˜}Ê̅>ÌÊ>ÀiÊ
ÌÞ«ˆV>ÊœvÊ>Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiðÊ/…ˆÃʓˆÝˆ˜}ÊÀiÃÕ««ˆiÃÊ
œÝÞ}i˜Ê>˜`ʘÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÃÊ̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊÜ>ÌiÀÊVœÕ“˜°Ê
˜Ê ̅iÊ v>]Ê Ì…iÊ vœÀ“iÀÞÊ Ü>À“Ê >˜`Ê L՜Þ>˜ÌÊ ÃÕÀv>ViÊ
Ü>ÌiÀÃÊVœœÊ>˜`Ê̅i˜ÊȘŽ]Ê`ÀˆÛˆ˜}ʓˆÝˆ˜}°Ê/…ˆÃʜVVÕÀÃÊ
œ˜ÞʈvÊ̅iÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀÃÊVœœÊ̜Ê̅iÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiʜvÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ`i˜ÃˆÌÞʭΙcʜÀÊ{c
®°xÓÊ>ŽiÊ"˜Ì>ÀˆœÊ
ˆÃÊ «>À̈VՏ>ÀÞÊ Ãi˜ÃˆÌˆÛiÊ ÌœÊ Ì…ˆÃÊ ivviVÌ°Ê 1˜`iÀÊ Ãœ“iÊ
Vˆ“>ÌiÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ]xÎʈÌÊܜՏ`ÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜Viʜ˜ÞÊ
>ÊȘ}i]ÊŜÀÌÊ«iÀˆœ`ʜvÊVœ“«iÌiʓˆÝˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê>ÌiÊ܈˜ÌiÀ]
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{Î
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
̅i˜Ê`ii«ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊܜՏ`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊÞi>À°Ê/…iÊ`ii«iÀÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ­ÕÀœ˜]Ê
ˆV…ˆ}>˜]Ê>˜`Ê-Õ«iÀˆœÀ®ÊܜՏ`ÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜ViÊ>Êȓˆ>ÀÊÃÕ««ÀiÃȜ˜ÊœvʓˆÝˆ˜}ʈ˜ÊܓiÊÞi>ÀÃ]Ê>œ˜}Ê܈̅Ê>Ê
È}˜ˆvˆV>˜ÌÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʜvÊ`ii«ÊÜ>ÌiÀðx{Ê œÊÃÕ««ÀiÃȜ˜ÊœvʓˆÝˆ˜}Ê܈ÊœVVÕÀʈ˜ÊÅ>œÜiÀÊLœ`ˆiÃʜvÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
ÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ>ŽiÊ-Ì°Ê
>ˆÀÊ>˜`Ê̅iÊÜiÃÌiÀ˜ÊL>ȘʜvÊ>ŽiÊÀˆi]ÊLiV>ÕÃiÊ̅iÀiÊ܈Ê>Ü>ÞÃÊLiÊÃÕvvˆVˆi˜ÌÊ܈˜`Ê
̜ÊÃ̈ÀÊ̅iÊi˜ÌˆÀiÊÜ>ÌiÀÊVœÕ“˜ÊvÀœ“Ê̜«Ê̜ÊLœÌ̜“°
˜Ê̅iÊi˜`]ʏœ˜}iÀÊÃÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜Ê«iÀˆœ`ÃÊ>˜`ÊÜ>À“iÀÊLœÌ̜“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ܈Êˆ˜VÀi>ÃiʜÝÞ}i˜Ê
`i«ïœ˜Êˆ˜Ê̅iÊ`ii«ÊÜ>ÌiÀÃʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃxxÊ>˜`Ê܈Êi>`Ê̜ÊVœ“«iÌiʏœÃÃʜvʜÝÞ}i˜Ê`ÕÀˆ˜}Ê
̅iʈVi‡vÀiiÊ«iÀˆœ`ʈ˜Ê“>˜Þʈ˜>˜`ʏ>ŽiÃʜvÊ>Ìʏi>ÃÌʓœ`iÀ>ÌiÊ`i«Ì…°xÈʘœÝˆ>ʜÀʅޫœÝˆ>ʈ˜Ê`ii«Ê
Ü>ÌiÀÃÊ܈Ê…>Ûiʘi}>̈Ûiʈ“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê“œÃÌʜvÊ̅iʜÀ}>˜ˆÃ“Ãʈ˜Ê̅iʏ>ŽiðÊ*iÀÈÃÌi˜ÌÊ`i>`Ê✘iÃÊ
V>˜ÊÀiÃՏÌʈ˜Ê“>ÃÈÛiÊvˆÃ…ÊŽˆÃ]Ê`>“>}iÊ̜ÊvˆÃ…iÀˆiÃ]Ê̜݈VÊ>}>ÊLœœ“Ã]Ê>˜`ÊvœÕ‡Ã“iˆ˜}]ʓÕÃÌއ
Ì>Ã̈˜}Ê`Àˆ˜Žˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊ£nL®°Ê
,i`ÕVi`ÊViÊ
œÛiÀÊ
%XTRAPOLATIONS FROM TO YEARS OF RECORDS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT ICE COVER WILL DECLINE IN THE
FUTURE (YDROLOGIC MODEL SIMULATIONS ALSO PREDICT
DRASTIC REDUCTIONS IN ICE COVER ON THE 'REAT ,AKES
AND ON INLAND WATERS IN THE FUTURE 4ABLE #HANGES
IN ICE COVER CREATE LARGE ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC
IMPACTS 3HORTER ICE COVER PERIODS FOR EXAMPLE CAN
BE A MIXED BLESSING FOR lSH 2EDUCED ICE WILL LESSEN
THE SEVERITY OF WINTER OXYGEN DEPLETION IN MANY SMALL
INLAND LAKES THUS SIGNIlCANTLY REDUCING WINTERKILL
IN MANY lSH POPULATIONS (OWEVER SMALL SPECIES
UNIQUELY ADAPTED TO LIVE IN WINTERKILL LAKES GO EXTINCT
LOCALLY WHEN PREDATORY lSHES ARE ABLE TO INVADE AND
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
PERSIST IN LAKES THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED WINTERKILL
2EDUCED ICE COVER ALSO ALLOWS GREATER STORM DISTUR
BANCE WHICH INCREASES EGG MORTALITY OF THE COMMER
CIALLY VALUABLE LAKE WHITElSH WHOSE EGGS INCUBATE
OVER WINTER ON THE BOTTOM OF 'REAT ,AKES BAYS
)NCREASES IN THE ICEFREE PERIOD EXTEND THE SHIPPING
SEASON ON THE 'REAT ,AKES BUT REDUCE ICE lSHING ICE
BOATING SKIING SNOWMOBILING AND WINTER FESTIVALS
SUCH AS 7ISCONSINS h+ITES ON )CEv SEE BOX P
USED IN THIS REPORT (AD#- SUGGEST EVEN GREATER
DECLINES IN LATE SUMMER WATER LEVELS BECAUSE THIS MODEL
PROJECTS HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SUMMER RAIN
FALL IN THE REGION THAN THE MODELS USED IN PREVIOUS
STUDIES (OWEVER THE ABSENCE OF LONGTERM TRENDS
IN THE HISTORIC 'REAT ,AKES WATER LEVELS RECORD AND
INCREASES IN WATER IN SOME INLAND AREAS OF 7ISCONSIN
SUGGEST THAT LAKE WATER LEVELS MAY NOT YET SHOW THE
DECLINE EXPECTED FROM LONGTERM CLIMATE CHANGE
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê>ŽiÊ7>ÌiÀÊiÛiÃÊ
#LIMATE SCENARIOS AND LAKE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY
PREDICTED LESS RUNOFF MORE EVAPORATION AND LOWER
WATER LEVELS IN BOTH LARGE AND SMALL LAKES IN THE REGION
4HE MOST RECENT HYDROLOGIC MODELS CONTINUE TO PRO
JECT LOWER LAKE AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN THE FUTURE
4ABLE DESPITE A LACK OF CLEAR TRENDS IN THE HISTORIC
RECORD 0REDICTIONS BASED ON ONE OF THE CLIMATE MODELS
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê>ŽiÊ*Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞ
4HE GROWTH OF ALGAE IN THE WATER AND ON LAKE BOTTOMS
IS CALLED PRIMARY PRODUCTION BECAUSE THESE PLANKTONIC
PLANTS FORM THE BASE OF THE FOOD WEB THAT NOURISHES
ANIMALS FROM ZOOPLANKTON TO lSH 0RIMARY PRODUC
TION IS CONTROLLED BY A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE
LIGHT OR THE PORTION OF THE ICEFREE YEAR WHEN LIGHT
IS AVAILABLE AND NUTRIENTS %XCESSIVE NUTRIENTS CAN
/Ê£ÊÊÊViÊ
œÛiÀÊÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊiVÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
>Ži
ÕÀÀi˜ÌÊ-ˆÌÕ>̈œ˜
>ŽiÃÊ-Õ«iÀˆœÀÊ
>˜`ÊÀˆiÊ­ÈÊL>Șî>
ÇÇÊ̜ʣ££Ê`>ÞÃÊ
œvʈViÊVœÛiÀ
iVÀi>ÃiʈViÊVœÛiÀÊ
vÀœ“Ê££•xnÊ`>ÞÃÊ
iVÀi>ÃiʈViÊVœÛiÀÊ
vÀœ“ÊÎΕnnÊ`>ÞÃÊ
>ŽiÊ-Õ«iÀˆœÀÊ
­ÎÊL>Șî>
œÊˆVi‡vÀiiÊ
܈˜ÌiÀÃ
˜VÀi>ÃiʈVi‡vÀiiÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ
vÀœ“Êä•{¯
˜VÀi>ÃiʈVi‡vÀiiÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ
vÀœ“Ê{•{x¯
>ŽiÊÀˆiÊ
­ÎÊL>Șî>
ӯʜvÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ
>ÀiʈViÊvÀii
ä•È£¯ÊœvÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ
>ÀiʈVi‡vÀiiÊ
{•™È¯ÊœvÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ
>ÀiʈVi‡vÀiiÊ
-“>Êˆ˜>˜`ʏ>ŽiÃL
H™ä•£ääÊ`>ÞÃÊ
œvʈViÊVœÛiÀ
iVÀi>ÃiʈViÊVœÛiÀÊLÞÊ{x•ÈäÊ`>ÞÃÊ܈̅Ê>Ê`œÕLˆ˜}Ê
œvÊ>̓œÃ«…iÀˆVÊ
"Ó
ÞÊÓäÎä
ÕÌÕÀiÊ-Vi˜>ÀˆœÃ
ÞÊÓä™ä
-œÕÀVi\Ê-iiʘœÌiÊÈ£°
/ÊÓÊÊÊ7>ÌiÀÊiÛiÃʈŽiÞÊ̜ÊiVÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê̅iÊÕÌÕÀiÊ­>ÃÊŜܘʅiÀiÊvœÀÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊÊ
Ê>ŽiÃ]Ê
ÀÞÃÌ>Ê>Ži]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]Ê>˜`Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀʘi>ÀÊ>ÃÌÊ>˜Ãˆ˜}]ʈV…ˆ}>˜®Ê
>ŽiʜÀÊ-ˆÌi
ÓʗÊ
"Ó
­À>˜}iʜvÊ·{ÊȓՏ>̈œ˜Ã®
ÓäÎäÊ
­À>˜}iʜvÊÓÊȓՏ>̈œ˜Ã®
Óä™äÊ
­À>˜}iʜvÊÓÊȓՏ>̈œ˜Ã®
>ŽiÊ-Õ«iÀˆœÀ
qä°ÓÎʓÊ̜Êqä°{Çʓ
qä°ä£Ê“Ê̜Êqä°ÓÓʓ
³ä°££Ê“Ê̜ÊqÊä°{Óʓ
>ŽiÊÕÀœ˜ÉˆV…ˆ}>˜
q䰙™Ê“Ê̜ÊqÓ°{nʓ
³ä°äxʓÊ̜Êqä°ÇÓʓ
³ä°ÎxʓÊ̜ÊqÊ£°Înʓ
ÀÞÃÌ>Ê>Ži]Ê
7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜
q£°äʓÊ̜Êq£°™Ê“
­ÓÊȓՏ>̈œ˜Ã®
ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀʘi>ÀÊ
>˜Ãˆ˜}]ʈV…ˆ}>˜
qä°ÈÊ̜ʳ䰣ʓ
-œÕÀVi\Ê-iiʘœÌiÊÈÓ°Ê``ˆÌˆœ˜>Ê`>Ì>ʜ˜Ê>ŽiʏiÛiÊ`iVˆ˜iÃÊV>˜ÊLiÊvœÕ˜`ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÌiV…˜ˆV>Ê>««i˜`ˆViÃ\Ê
ÌÌ«\ÉÉÜÜÜ°ÕVÃÕÃ>°œÀ}É}Ài>̏>ŽiÃÉ}V…>i˜}iÌiV…L>V°…Ì“
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
Ê
/ÊÎÊÊÊÝ«iVÌi`ÊvviVÌÃʜvÊ7>À“iÀÊ>˜`ÊÀˆiÀÊ-Փ“iÀÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
Êʜ˜Ê>ŽiÃÊ>˜`Ê-ÕLÃiµÕi˜Ìʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê}>Ê*Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞÊ
ˆ“>Ìi‡ÀˆÛi˜Ê
>˜}i
“«>VÌʜ˜Ê*Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜
œÃÌÊ-i˜ÃˆÌˆÛiÊ>ŽiÊ/Þ«i
˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜ÊLœÌ…ʈVi‡vÀiiÊ«iÀˆœ`Ê
>˜`ʓ>݈“Õ“ÊÃՓ“iÀÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi
˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜
œ`iÀ>Ìiʈ˜Ê>Ài>]Ê`i«Ì…]Ê
>˜`ʘÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÊVœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>̈œ˜
˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊÃՓ“iÀÊ
ÃÌÀ>̈wÊV>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ʏœÃÃʜvÊv>Ê̜«‡
̜‡LœÌ̜“Ê“ˆÝˆ˜}Ê«iÀˆœ`
iVÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜ÊV>ÕÃi`ÊLÞÊ
`iVÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê˜ÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÊÀi}i˜iÀ>̈œ˜ÊÀ>ÌiÃ
ii«Ê>˜`ʜˆ}œÌÀœ«…ˆVÊ
­˜ÕÌÀˆi˜Ì‡«œœÀÆÊi°}°]Ê
>ŽiÊ"˜Ì>Àˆœ®
ÀœÕ}…̇ˆ˜`ÕVi`Ê`iVÀi>ÃiÊ
ˆ˜Ê>ŽiÊÜ>ÌiÀÊۜÕ“i
˜ˆÌˆ>Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜]Ê
vœœÜi`ÊLÞÊ«Àœ}ÀiÃÈÛiÊ`iVÀi>ÃiÊ
>ÃÊ̅iʏ>ŽiʏiÛiÊ`iVˆ˜iÃ
-“>Ê>˜`ÊÅ>œÜ
ÀœÕ}…̇ˆ˜`ÕVi`Ê`iVÀi>ÃiÊ
ˆ˜Ê>˜˜Õ>Êˆ˜«ÕÌʜvʘÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÃÊ
­«…œÃ«…œÀÕîÊ>˜`Ê`ˆÃ܏Ûi`Ê
œÀ}>˜ˆVÊV>ÀLœ˜
iVÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜ÊÀiÃՏ̈˜}Ê
vÀœ“ʘÕÌÀˆi˜Ìʏˆ“ˆÌ>̈œ˜
-“>Ê>˜`ʜˆ}œÌÀœ«…ˆVÊ
LEAD TO EUTROPHICATION CAUSING INCREASED ALGAL GROWTH
INCLUDING NOXIOUS ALGAL BLOOMS AND DEGRADED WATER
QUALITY /N THE OTHER HAND DROPS IN PRIMARY PRODUC
TION CAN ULTIMATELY REDUCE lSH PRODUCTION IN A LAKE
2ESEARCH INDICATES THAT THE LONGER ICEFREE PERIODS
AND HIGHER SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE FUTURE WILL SPUR GREATER ALGAL GROWTH /THER
ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE HOWEVER MAY OFFSET THESE
PRODUCTIVITY GAINS #LOUDY DAYS CAN LOWER PRODUC
TIVITY BY MAKING LESS LIGHT AVAILABLE FOR ALGAL PHOTOSYN
THESIS #LOUD COVER HAS INCREASED IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
REGION RECENTLY BUT FUTURE TRENDS IN CLOUDINESS ARE
NOT CLEAR )NCREASED PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY COULD ALSO
BE LIMITED OR EVEN REVERSED BY A DECLINE IN AVAILABILITY
OF NUTRIENTS PRIMARILY NITROGEN AND PHOSPHORUS
NECESSARY FOR PLANT GROWTH 0REDICTED REDUCTIONS IN
RUNOFF AND A GENERAL DRYING OF WATERSHEDS DURING
SUMMER ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE THE AMOUNTS OF PHOSPHORUS
AND OTHER DISSOLVED MATERIALS THAT STREAMS CARRY INTO
LAKES &INALLY PROLONGED OR STRONGER STRATIlCATION
CAN ALSO LEAD TO LOWER PRIMARY PRODUCTION IN LAKES BY
PREVENTING THE MIXING THAT BRINGS NUTRIENTS FROM BOT
TOM WATERS AND SEDIMENTS UP INTO SURFACE WATERS
#HANGES IN THE SPECIES COMPOSITION OF ALGAE
AND IN SEASONAL PATTERNS OF BLOOMS ARE ALSO LIKELY
CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE %ARLIER ICEOUT THAW
OF LAKE ICE AND SPRING RUNOFF WILL SHIFT THE TIMING OF
THE SPRING ALGAL BLOOM AND EARLIER AND LONGER PERI
ODS OF SUMMER STRATIlCATION TEND TO SHIFT DOMINANCE
IN THE ALGAL COMMUNITY DURING THE GROWING SEASON
FROM DIATOMS TO INEDIBLE BLUEGREEN ALGAE )F CLIMATE
CHANGE CAUSES INEDIBLE NUISANCE SPECIES TO DOMINATE
ALGAL PRODUCTIVITY OR IF THE TIMING OF ALGAL PRODUCTION
IS OUT OF SYNCH WITH THE FOOD DEMANDS OF lSH THEN
ALL UPPER LEVELS OF THE FOOD CHAIN PARTICULARLY lSH
WILL SUFFER SEE BOX P
4HE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC PRO
DUCTIVITY WILL DIFFER AMONG LAKES 4ABLE SUMMARIZES
THE LIKELY OUTCOMES
,ˆÛiÀÊ>˜`Ê-ÌÀi>“ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
4
HE ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THAT WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST IMPACT ON STREAMS ARE WARMING
AIR TEMPERATURES AND GENERAL DRYING OF
WATERSHEDS ESPECIALLY DURING SUMMER AND AUTUMN
4HIS DRYING WILL RESULT FROM WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER RATES OF EVAPORATION DURING A LONGER ICE
FREE PERIOD 4HIS FUTURE SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH
PAST TRENDS TOWARD LONGER ICEFREE PERIODS EARLIER
SPRING STREAM mOWS AND MORE FREQUENT MIDWINTER
BREAKUPS AND ICE JAMS $ESPITE A GENERAL DRYING
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
/Ê{ÊÊʓ«>VÌÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʜ˜Ê-ÌÀi>“ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ
ˆ“>Ìi‡
ÀˆÛi˜Ê
>˜}i
ˆŽiÞʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê*…ÞÈV>Ê
>˜`Ê
i“ˆV>Ê*Àœ«iÀ̈iÃ
ˆŽiÞʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê
VœÃÞÃÌi“Ê*Àœ«iÀ̈iÃ
˜Ìi˜Ãˆvވ˜}ʜÀÊ
œ˜vœÕ˜`ˆ˜}Ê>V̜ÀÃ
>ÀˆiÀʈVi‡œÕÌÊ
>˜`Ê؜ÜʓiÌ
*i>ŽÊyʜÜÃʜVVÕÀÊi>ÀˆiÀ°
/…iÊ̈“ˆ˜}ʜvÊwÊÅÊ>˜`Ê
ˆ˜ÃiVÌʏˆviÊVÞViÃÊVœÕ`Ê
LiÊ`ˆÃÀÕ«Ìi`°
-˜œÜ“iÌʜVVÕÀÃÊi>ÀˆiÀÊ
>˜`Êv>ÃÌiÀʈ˜ÊÕÀL>˜Ê>Ài>ÃÊ
>˜`Ê܅iÀiÊVœ˜ˆviÀœÕÃÊvœÀiÃÌÊ
>ÀÛiÃÌʅ>ÃʜVVÕÀÀi`°
>LˆÌ>ÌÊ`iVÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜ÊiÝÌi˜Ì°Ê
“«iÀۈœÕÃÊÃÕÀv>ViÃÊ>˜`Ê
ˆ“«iÀۈœÕÃÊ܈ÃÊiÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊ
ÃÌÀi>“Ê`Àވ˜}Ê`ÕiÊ̜ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜Ê
ˆ˜Êˆ˜wʏÌÀ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊ
ÀiV…>À}i°
«…i“iÀ>ÊÃÌÀi>“ÃÊ`ÀÞÊ
i>ÀˆiÀʈ˜Ê̅iÊÃi>ܘ°Ê
>VŽÜ>ÌiÀÊ«œœÃÊ
iÝ«iÀˆi˜ViÊ>˜œÝˆ>Êi>ÀˆiÀ°
œÜiÀÊÃՓ“iÀÊ
Ü>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃ
œÀiʅi>`Ü>ÌiÀÊÃÌÀi>“ÃÊ
`ÀÞÆʓœÀiÊ«iÀi˜˜ˆ>ÊÃÌÀi>“ÃÊ
LiVœ“iʈ˜ÌiÀ“ˆÌÌi˜Ì°Ê
œ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>̈œ˜ÃʜvÊ`ˆÃ܏Ûi`Ê
œÀ}>˜ˆVÊV>ÀLœ˜Ê`iVÀi>Ãi]Ê
̅iÀiLÞÊÀi`ÕVˆ˜}ÊՏÌÀ>ۈœi̇
Ê>ÌÌi˜Õ>̈œ˜°Ê
ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊÀiV…>À}iÊ
ˆÃÊÀi`ÕVi`°
œÀiÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆ‡
Ì>̈œ˜Êˆ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊ
>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}Ê>˜`Ê
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
iÛiÃ
Þ`Àœœ}ˆVÊVœ˜˜iV̈œ˜ÃÊ
̜Ê̅iÊÀˆ«>Àˆ>˜Ê✘iÊ>ÀiÊ
Ài`ÕVi`°ÊÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊ
ÀiV…>À}iʈÃÊÀi`ÕVi`°
-«iVˆiÃÊ܈̅ÊÀiÃ̈˜}ʏˆviÊ
ÃÌ>}iÃʜÀÊÀ>«ˆ`ÊVœœ˜ˆâiÀÃÊ
`œ“ˆ˜>ÌiÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆið
-«Àˆ˜}Êyʜœ`ÃÊÀi>V…Ê
}Ài>ÌiÀʅiˆ}…ÌðÊ
œœ`«>ˆ˜Ê…>LˆÌ>ÌÊvœÀÊwÊÅÊ
>˜`ʈ˜ÛiÀÌiLÀ>ÌiÃÊ}ÀœÜðÊ
-ÕÀv>ViÊÀ՘œvvʈ˜VÀi>ÃiðÊ
Þ`Àœœ}ˆVÊVœ˜˜iV̈œ˜ÃÊ
܈̅ÊÜȉ>˜`Ãʈ˜VÀi>Ãi°
ÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÊ>˜`ÊÃi`ˆ“i˜ÌÊ
ÀiÌi˜Ìˆœ˜Ê`iVÀi>Ãi°Ê
*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊœVVÕÀÀˆ˜}Ê
܅i˜Ê܈ÃÊ>ÀiÊvÀœâi˜ÊÀiÃՏÌÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê…ˆ}…iÀÊÀ՘œvvÊ>˜`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃÊ
yʜœ`ʅiˆ}…Ì°
ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊÀiV…>À}iÊ
«œÌi˜Ìˆ>Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãið
7>À“iÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ
-ÌÀi>“Ê>˜`Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃʈ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
/…iÊÀ>ÌiÃʜvÊ`iVœ“«œÃˆÌˆœ˜Ê
>˜`ÊÀiëˆÀ>̈œ˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
˜ÃiVÌÃÊi“iÀ}iÊi>ÀˆiÀ°Ê
œÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÊ
i>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃ
*Àˆ“>ÀÞÊ>˜`ÊÃiVœ˜`>ÀÞÊ
«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê«iÀÊ՘ˆÌʜvÊ
Lˆœ“>ÃÃʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃÊ܅i˜Ê
˜ÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÃÊ>ÀiʘœÌʏˆ“ˆÌi`ÆÊ
œÜiÛiÀ]Ê̜Ì>Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê
VœÕ`Ê`iVÀi>ÃiʈvÊ>µÕ>̈VÊ
>LˆÌ>ÌÊÅÀˆ˜ŽÃÊ՘`iÀÊ
`ÀœÕ}…ÌÊVœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜Ã°
7œœ`ÞÊÀˆ«>Àˆ>˜ÊÛi}iÌ>̈œ˜Ê
V>˜ÊLÕvviÀÊÃÌÀi>“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiðÊ
>À}iÀÊyʜœ`ÃʜVVÕÀÊ
“œÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÞ°Ê
ˆÃ…Ê>˜`ʈ˜ÛiÀÌiLÀ>ÌiÊ
«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê`iVÀi>ÃiðÊ
“«iÀۈœÕÃÊÃÕÀv>ViÃʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ
À՘œvvÊ>˜`ÊÃÌÀi>“Êyʜܰ
ÀœÃˆœ˜Ê>˜`Ê«œÕÌ>˜ÌÊ
ˆ˜«ÕÌÃÊvÀœ“ÊÕ«>˜`Ê
ÜÕÀViÃʈ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
ˆÃ…Ê>˜`ʈ˜ÃiVÌʏˆviʅˆÃ̜ÀˆiÃÊ
>˜`Êvœœ`ÊÜiLÃÊ>ÀiÊ`ˆÃ‡
ÀÕ«Ìi`ÊLÞÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê
̅iʈ˜Ìi˜ÃˆÌÞ]Ê`ÕÀ>̈œ˜]Ê
>˜`ÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvÊyʜœ`ˆ˜}°
>˜˜iˆâi`ÊÃÌÀi>“ÃÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ«i>ŽÊyʜܰ
,՘œvvʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃÊÀi>̈ÛiÊ
̜ʈ˜wʏÌÀ>̈œ˜°
iÛ>Ìi`Ê
>̓œÃ«…iÀˆVÊ
"Ó
“«iÀۈœÕÃÊÃÕÀv>ViÃÊ>˜`Ê
LœÌ…ʘ>ÌÕÀ>Ê>˜`ʅՓ>˜‡
“>`iÊÀiÌi˜Ìˆœ˜ÊL>ȘÃÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊÜ>ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiðÊ
˜Ê>Ài>ÃÊ܈̅ʫœÀœÕÃÊ܈ÃÊ
>˜`Ê>V̈ÛiÊ}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊ
Vœ˜˜iV̈œ˜Ã]ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
iÝÌÀi“iÃÊ>ÀiÊÓ>iÀ°
*œÃÈLiÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜Êi>vÊ
ˆÌÌiÀʵÕ>ˆÌÞÊVœÕ`ʈ“«>VÌÊ
>µÕ>̈VÊvœœ`ÊÜiLð
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
MODEL PREDICTIONS FOR THE REGION ALSO SUGGEST THAT OVER
THE NEXT YEARS PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING
WINTER AND SPRING 4HIS COULD INCREASE THE MAGNITUDE
OF SPRING mOODS ESPECIALLY IF THE mOODS COINCIDE WITH
SNOWMELT WHEN SOILS ARE STILL FROZEN 3TREAM RESPONSES
TO THESE CLIMATEDRIVEN CHANGES WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS
THE REGION 4ABLE MAINLY BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN
THE RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF GROUNDWATER VERSUS SURFACE
WATER TO THEIR mOW PATTERNS $IRECT HUMAN DISTUR
BANCES SUCH AS REMOVING STREAMSIDE VEGETATION PAVING
OR DEVELOPING LAND CHANNELIZING STREAMS DEPOSITING
NITROGEN AND ACID FROM ACID RAIN DIVERTING WATER AND
INTRODUCING INVASIVE SPECIES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ALTER
THE WAY STREAM ECOSYSTEMS RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE
“«>VÌÃʜvÊ
>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊÞ`Àœœ}ÞÊ
(EAVY RAINFALL EVENTS AND mOODING ARE INCREASING
IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION SEE &IGURE P AND
PROJECTED INCREASES IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE EVENTS
MAY AMPLIFY THE RANGE OF CONDITIONS THAT MAKE mOOD
ING MORE LIKELY IN THE FUTURE SUCH AS STREAM CHANNEL
ING AND LANDUSE CHANGES THAT INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF
IMPERVIOUS SURFACES 4HE LIKELIHOOD OF mOODING WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH CHANGES IN LAND USE 3TREAMS IN THE
AGRICULTURAL AREAS ON lNETEXTURED SOILS AND mAT TOPO
GRAPHY AT THE EASTERN END OF ,AKE %RIE FOR INSTANCE
RISE QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO RAIN AND ARE LIKELY TO BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO INTENSE SUMMER STORMS
&LOODS EXERT THEIR GREATEST PHYSICAL INmUENCE BY
RESHAPING RIVER CHANNELS INUNDATING mOODPLAINS AND
MOVING LARGE WOODY DEBRIS AND SEDIMENTS &LOODING
CAN DEGRADE WATER QUALITY WHEN UNTREATED HUMAN
COMMERCIAL OR AGRICULTURAL WASTES OVERmOW FROM
TREATMENT FACILITIES OR WHEN SOILS ARE ERODED FROM
AGRICULTURAL lELDS TREATED WITH PESTICIDES AND FERTI
LIZERS (IGH WATER mOW ALSO DIMINISHES THE CAPACITY
OF A STREAM TO RECYCLE NUTRIENTS AND SEQUESTER SUS
PENDED OR DISSOLVED ORGANIC MATTER #HANNELIZED
URBAN AND AGRICULTURAL STREAMS HAVE LITTLE CAPACITY TO
RETAIN WATER AND THE ANTICIPATED INCREASES IN SPRING
RUNOFF BY THE END OF THE CENTURY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
HEIGHT OF SPRING mOODS AND LOWER NUTRIENT AND
SEDIMENT RETENTION IN THESE STREAMS
.OT ALL IMPACTS OF mOODING ARE NEGATIVE OF
COURSE !QUIFER RECHARGE IS ONE BENElT &LOODS ALSO
TRANSPORT lNE SEDIMENTS DOWNSTREAM INCREASING THE
QUALITY AND QUANTITY OF HABITAT FOR SOME lSH AND
INVERTEBRATES )N ADDITION SEVERAL IMPORTANT lSH
SPECIES MOVE UPSTREAM INTO THE 'REAT ,AKES TRIBU
TARIES TO REPRODUCE DURING SPRING STURGEON WALLEYE
AND WHITE SUCKER OR FALL STEELHEAD #HINOOK SALMON
AND BROOK TROUT CUED BY EITHER INCREASED mOW OR
DAY LENGTH !LTHOUGH CHANGES IN THE FREQUENCY AND
SEVERITY OF DISTURBANCES SUCH AS mOODS CAN DISRUPT
SOME AQUATIC COMMUNITIES MANY lSH AND INVERTE
BRATE SPECIES COEVOLVED WITH SEASONAL mOOD PULSES
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
1,Ê£™
EXPANDED HABITAT FOR “«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê-ÌÀi>“ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
SPAWNING AND NURSERY
SITES )N THE 'REAT ,AKES
REGION THESE SPECIES IN
CLUDE BASS CRAPPIE SUN
lSH AND CATlSH
!PART FROM EXTREME
EVENTS SUMMER RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE IN
THE FUTURE ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION
SEE &IGURE P
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{{
$RIER CONDITIONS WILL TRANS vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
LATE INTO LOWER SUMMER
STREAM mOW AND LESS STREAM HABITAT (EADWATER
STREAMS WHICH OFTEN MAKE UP MORE THAN PERCENT
OF THE RIVER MILES IN A WATERSHED ARE PROBABLY THE
MOST VULNERABLE OF ALL AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS UNDER
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS &IGURE $ROUGHT
EFFECTS CAN LEAD TO WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES DE
PLETED OXYGEN HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF CONTAMINANTS
AS WATER VOLUME DECLINES REDUCED TRANSPORT OF NU
TRIENTS AND ORGANIC MATTER AND DISRUPTION OF FOOD
WEBS 2EGIONS WITH INTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL PRODUC
TION ON lNE SOILS AND mAT TOPOGRAPHY SUCH AS THOSE
FOUND AT THE EASTERN END OF ,AKE %RIE WILL BE MOST
VULNERABLE TO EXTREME EVENTS AND REDUCED SUMMER
RAINFALL SINCE THEIR HYDROLOGY IS CONTROLLED LARGELY
BY SURFACE WATER )N SMALL STREAMS WHERE mOW COMES
PRIMARILY FROM SURFACE RUNOFF ONE STUDY PREDICTS THAT
PERCENT OF THE STREAMS WILL STOP mOWING IF ANNUAL
RUNOFF DECREASES BY PERCENT
/NE CONSEQUENCE OF PERIODIC DROUGHTS IS THAT
SULFATES AND ACIDITY ARE MOBILIZED DURING POSTDROUGHT
RAINS AND CAN DELIVER A STRONG ACID PULSE TO STREAMS
AND LAKES IN THE WATERSHED "ECAUSE OF THIS PHENOM
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
ENON CLIMATE WARMING MAY SLOW OR EVEN HALT THE
RECOVERY OF MANY ACIDSTRESSED AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS
3TREAMS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ACID RAIN INCLUDE THOSE
ON THE #ANADIAN SHIELD OF /NTARIO ALONG THE HIGHER
GRADIENT REACHES OF .EW 9ORK AND IN NORTHERN
-ICHIGAN -INNESOTA AND 7ISCONSIN
“«>VÌÃʜvʈ}…iÀÊ7>ÌiÀÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi
!CROSS THE WATERSHED STREAM TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE
LY MIRROR INCREASING AIR TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THE
WARMING MAY BE MODIlED BY SHADE FROM RIPARIAN
FORESTS AND OTHER VEGETATION AND BY WATER STORAGE
IN WETLANDS ,OCALLY COOL GROUNDWATER SEEPS WILL
PROVIDE SOME BUFFERING FOR STREAMS AGAINST WARMING
AIR TEMPERATURES 7ARMER WATER WILL AFFECT STREAM
ORGANISMS FROM PLANKTON TO INSECTS AND lSH lSH ARE
DISCUSSED BELOW )N RESPONSE TO WARMER WATERS SOME
INSECT SPECIES INCREASE GROWTH RATES EMERGE EARLIER
ARE SMALLER AT MATURITY ALTER THEIR SEX RATIOS OR REDUCE
FECUNDITY 0LANKTON PRODUCTIVITY TENDS TO INCREASE
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LONGER GROWING
SEASONS BUT REDUCTIONS IN WATER VOLUME COUPLED
/ÊxÊÊʓ«>VÌÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʜ˜Ê7ȉ>˜`ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ
ˆ“>Ìi‡
ÀˆÛi˜Ê
>˜}i
ˆŽiÞʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê
*…ÞÈV>Ê*Àœ«iÀ̈iÃ
ˆŽiÞʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
>ÀˆiÀʈVi‡œÕÌÊ
>˜`Ê؜ÜʓiÌ
7iÌÊ«iÀˆœ`ÃÊ>ÀiÊŜÀÌiÀ]Ê
iëiVˆ>Þʈ˜Êi«…i“iÀ>Ê
Üȉ>˜`ðÊ
>Ã̇`iÛiœ«ˆ˜}ʈ˜ÃiVÌÊ>˜`Ê>“«…ˆLˆ>˜Ê
ëiVˆiÃÊ>ÀiÊv>ۜÀi`]Ê>ÃÊ>ÀiÊëiVˆiÃÊ܈̅Ê
ÀiÃ̈˜}ÊÃÌ>}iðÊ
/…iÊ̈“ˆ˜}ʜvÊ>“«…ˆLˆ>˜Ê>˜`ʈ˜ÃiVÌʏˆviÊ
VÞViÃÊVœÕ`ÊLiÊ`ˆÃÀÕ«Ìi`°
œÜiÀÊÃՓ“iÀÊ
Ü>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃ
܏>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê
vÀ>}“i˜Ì>̈œ˜Ê܈̅ˆ˜Ê
Üȉ>˜`ÊVœ“«iÝiÃÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
i˜ÃÊÃ̜ÀiʏiÃÃÊV>ÀLœ˜°Ê
7>À“iÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ
>LˆÌ>ÌÊ>˜`ʓˆ}À>̈œ˜ÊVœÀÀˆ`œÀÃÊ>ÀiÊ
Ài`ÕVi`]Ê>ÃÊ>ÀiʅÞ`Àœœ}ˆVÊVœ˜˜iV̈œ˜ÃÊ̜Ê
Àˆ«>Àˆ>˜Ê✘iÃÊ>˜`Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊÀiV…>À}i°Ê
“iÀ}i˜ÌÊÛi}iÌ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊÅÀÕLÃÊ
`œ“ˆ˜>ÌiÊ«>˜ÌÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiðÊ
,i`ÕV̈œ˜Ãʈ˜Ê`ˆÃ܏Ûi`Ê
œÀ}>˜ˆVÊV>ÀLœ˜ÊÀiÃՏÌÊ
ˆ˜ÊiÃÃÊ>ÌÌi˜Õ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ
ՏÌÀ>ۈœi̇ÊÀ>`ˆ>̈œ˜°
“«…ˆLˆ>˜Ê>˜`ÊwÊÅÊÀi«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê
v>ˆÃʓœÀiʜvÌi˜Êˆ˜Ê`ÀÞÊÞi>ÀðÊ
Û>«œÀ>̈ÛiʏœÃÃiÃÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
/…iÊÀ>ÌiÃʜvÊ`iVœ“«œÃˆÌˆœ˜Ê
>˜`ÊÀiëˆÀ>̈œ˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê
i˜ÃÊ>˜`ÊLœ}ÃÊ
Ã̜ÀiʏiÃÃÊV>ÀLœ˜°
˜ÃiVÌÃÊi“iÀ}iÊi>ÀˆiÀ°Ê
˜Ìi˜Ãˆvވ˜}ʜÀÊ
œ˜vœÕ˜`ˆ˜}Ê6>Àˆ>LiÃ
-˜œÜ“iÌʜVVÕÀÃÊ
i>ÀˆiÀÊ>˜`Êv>ÃÌiÀʈ˜Ê
ÕÀL>˜Ê>Ài>ÃÊ>˜`Ê܅iÀiÊ
Vœ˜ˆviÀœÕÃÊvœÀiÃÌÊ
>ÀÛiÃÌʅ>ÃʜVVÕÀÀi`°
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê>˜`Ê
ÕÀL>˜Ê`iÛiœ«“i˜ÌÊ
iÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊvÀ>}‡
“i˜Ì>̈œ˜ÊivviVÌð
"À}>˜ˆÃ“ÃÊ܈̅ʫœœÀÊ`ˆÃ«iÀÃ>Ê
>LˆˆÌˆiÃÊLiVœ“iÊiÝ̈˜VÌ°
*Àˆ“>ÀÞÊ>˜`ÊÃiVœ˜`>ÀÞÊ«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê
«iÀÊ՘ˆÌʜvÊLˆœ“>ÃÃʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ܅i˜Ê
˜ÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÃÊ>ÀiʘœÌʏˆ“ˆÌi`°Ê
“«iÀۈœÕÃÊÃÕÀv>ViÃÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi°Ê
œÀiÊVœ“«ï̈œ˜ÊvÀœ“Ê
ˆ˜Û>ÈÛiÊëiVˆiÃʓ>ÞÊ
>VViiÀ>ÌiÊiÝ̈˜V̈œ˜Ã°
-«iVˆiÃÊ>ÌÊ̅iÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜ÊiÝÌi˜ÌÊ
œvÊ̅iÊÀ>˜}iÊLiVœ“iÊiÝ̈˜VÌ°
œÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÊ
i>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃ
iÛ>Ìi`Ê
>̓œÃ«…iÀˆVÊ
"Ó
7ȉ>˜`ÃÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜ÊiÝÌi˜Ì°Ê
>LˆÌ>ÌÊ>Ài>ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiðÊ
ÀœÕ˜`‡˜iÃ̈˜}ÊLˆÀ`Ãʓ>ÞÊ
LiʏœÃÌÊ`ÕÀˆ˜}Êyʜœ`ð
7ȉ>˜`ʏœÃÃiÃÊvÀœ“Ê
`iÛiœ«“i˜ÌÊÀi`ÕViÊ
yʜœ`ÊÃ̜À>}iÊV>«>VˆÌÞ°
*œÃÈLiÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜Êi>vʏˆÌÌiÀʵÕ>ˆÌÞÊ
VœÕ`ʈ“«>VÌÊ>µÕ>̈VÊvœœ`ÊÜiLð
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
WITH POSSIBLY INTERMITTENT mOW IN SMALLER STREAMS
SHOULD LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN OVERALL AQUATIC PRODUCTION
4HE EFFECTS OF INCREASING WATER TEMPERATURE WOULD
BE COMPOUNDED BY FOREST HARVEST ESPECIALLY OF CONI
FERS WHICH OPENS UP THE CANOPY AND PROMOTES EAR
LIER SNOWMELT .ORTHERN -ICHIGAN -INNESOTA 7IS
CONSIN AND WESTERN /NTARIO WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE
TO THIS PHENOMENON 5RBAN AREAS ALSO EXPERIENCE
EARLIER AND FASTER SNOWMELT THAN DO RURAL AREAS
7ARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE DECOM
POSITION AND NUTRIENT CYCLING IN STREAMS ALLOWING
MICROBES TO BREAK DOWN HUMAN AND AGRICULTURAL
WASTES INTO NUTRIENTS THAT FUEL GREATER PRIMARY PRODUC
TIVITY (OWEVER OTHER IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE SUCH
AS PROLONGED LOW mOWS COMBINED WITH HIGHER TEMP
ERATURES MAY LEAD TO OXYGEN DEPLETION WHICH WILL
SLOW DECOMPOSITION AND WASTEPROCESSING FUNCTIONS
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Êˆœ`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞÊ>˜`ʜœ`Ê7iLÃ
! WARMER CLIMATE WILL COMBINE WITH LANDUSE CHANGE
AND THE INTRODUCTION OF INVASIVE SPECIES TO POSE GREAT
THREATS TO AQUATIC BIODIVERSITY IN THE COMING CENTURY
.ATIVE PLANT AND ANIMAL SPECIES WILL DIFFER WIDELY IN
THEIR RESPONSES TO CHANGING STREAM TEMPERATURE AND
HYDROLOGY 3OME WILL RESPOND BY ADAPTING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES OR EXPANDING THEIR RANGES NORTHWARD
OR SEEKING REFUGE IN AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES AND
mOW PATTERNS REMAIN SUITABLE /THERS WILL DECLINE TO
EXTINCTION )NSECTS AND PLANTS THAT HAVE RESISTANT OR
MOBILE LIFE HISTORY STAGES LARVAE CYSTS SEEDS WILL
SURVIVE BETTER THAN OTHER ORGANISMS DURING REDUCED
WATER mOWS &ISH SPECIES PRESUMED TO BE AT HIGHER
RISK OF EXTINCTION ARE THOSE THAT HAVE SMALL GEOGRAPHIC
RANGES REQUIRE STEADY WATER mOWS OR SLACK WATER
HABITATS REPRODUCE AT AN OLDER AGE OR REQUIRE SPECIlC
FOODS /F lSH SPECIES IN 7ISCONSIN PERCENT
HAVE TWO OR MORE OF THE 1 , Ê Ó ä
ABOVE TRAITS INDICATING “«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê7ȉ>˜`ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
POTENTIAL SENSITIVITY TO
GLOBAL WARMING $ARTERS
AND SEA LAMPREYS ARE
AMONG THE SPECIES THAT
ARE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE
!NOTHER POTENTIAL
IMPACT ON STREAM FOOD
WEBS AND THE BIODIVERSITY
THEY SUPPORT COMES
DIRECTLY FROM INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC #/ LEVELS
3OME STUDIES INDICATE -iiÊ«>}iÊ{{
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
THAT PLANT LEAVES GROWN
UNDER ELEVATED #/ HAVE LOWER FOOD VALUE )F THESE
CHANGES IN LEAF CHEMISTRY TURN OUT TO BE SIGNIlCANT
THEY COULD SLOW MICROBIAL DECOMPOSITION OF PLANT
MATERIAL THAT FALLS INTO STREAMSˆA MAJOR SOURCE OF
ENERGY AND NUTRIENTS IN MANY AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMSˆ
AND ALSO REDUCE GROWTH AND SURVIVAL IN SOME STREAM
INSECTS THAT FEED ON THE LEAVES !NY SUCH IMPACTS
WOULD BE MAGNIlED UP THE FOOD CHAIN
7ȉ>˜`ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
"
ECAUSE OF LOW TOPOGRAPHY OR THE PRESENCE OF
IMPERVIOUS SOILS THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION HIS
TORICALLY HARBORED EXTENSIVE EXPANSES OF WET
LANDS PARTICULARLY IN THE PRAIRIE REGIONS OF -INNESOTA
AND )LLINOIS THE BOREAL REGIONS OF NORTHERN -INNESOTA
AND /NTARIO AND THE LOWLYING FRINGES OF ,AKE -ICHI
GAN &IGURE AND ,AKE %RIE INCLUDING THE 'REAT
"LACK 3WAMP IN WESTERN /HIO &OR MORE THAN A CEN
TURY HOWEVER THESE WETLANDS HAVE BEEN EXTENSIVELY
MODIlED OR DRAINED FOR URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION RESULTING IN TO PERCENT
LOSSES IN WETLAND AREA IN THE 'REAT ,AKES STATES AND
/NTARIO 4HESE LOSSES ARE ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
7ETLANDS NEAR THE 'REAT ,AKES OCCUR AS THREE
DISTINCT TYPES FRINGING COASTAL MARSHES THAT ARE DIRECT
LY IMPACTED BY LAKE LEVELS AND WAVE ACTION RIVERINE
WETLANDS THAT ARE PARTIALLY INmUENCED BY BOTH LAKE
AND RIVER AND PROTECTED LAGOONS OR BARRIER BEACH
SYSTEMS THAT ARE HYDROLOGICALLY CONNECTED TO THE LAKE
ONLY VIA GROUNDWATER 7HERE THEY HAVE NOT DISAP
PEARED COASTAL MARSHES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
BASIN PARTICULARLY ON ,AKE %RIE AND SOUTHERN ,AKE
/NTARIO HAVE BEEN EXTENSIVELY DIKED TO PROTECT THEM
FROM WATER LEVEL mUCTUATIONS #OASTAL WETLANDS SUCH
AS THOSE IN 3AGINAW "AY AND LARGE ESTUARIES SUCH AS
'REEN "AY ARE HOT SPOTS OF PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY BE
CAUSE NUTRIENTS AND SEDIMENTS FROM THROUGHOUT THE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
ˆ“>ÌiÊ>˜`ʈÀ`ʈÛiÀÈÌÞÊ
œ˜ÊˆV…ˆ}>˜½ÃÊ1««iÀÊ*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>Ê
"
˜iʜvÊ̅iʓœÃÌÊ«œ«Õ>ÀÊLˆÀ`‡Ü>ÌV…ˆ˜}Ê`iÃ̈˜>̈œ˜Ãʈ˜Ê̅iʈ`ÜiÃÌʈÃʈV…ˆ}>˜½ÃÊ1««iÀÊ
*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>]Ê>Ê`i˜ÃiÞÊvœÀiÃÌi`ʘiVŽÊœvʏ>˜`Ê̅>ÌÊÃÌÀiÌV…iÃÊÎn{ʓˆiÃÊi>ÃÌÊvÀœ“Ê̅iʘœÀ̅iÀ˜Ê
7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜ÊLœÀ`iÀʈ˜ÌœÊ̅iʅi>ÀÌʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>Žiðʏ̅œÕ}…Ê«>ÀÌÃʜvÊ̅iÊ«i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>ʏˆiÊ
v>À̅iÀʘœÀ̅Ê̅>˜Êœ˜ÌÀi>]Ê̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiʈÃʓœ`iÀ>Ìi`ÊLÞÊ>ŽiÃÊ-Õ«iÀˆœÀ]ʈV…ˆ}>˜]Ê>˜`ÊÕÀœ˜]Ê
܅ˆV…ÊVÀi>ÌiÊ>ÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕœÕÃÊ£]Çä䇓ˆiÊŜÀiˆ˜iÊ>ÀœÕ˜`Ê̅iÊ1««iÀÊ*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>°Ê/…ˆÃÊŜÀiˆ˜iÊ>˜`Ê̅iÊ
«i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>½ÃÊ£È]xääÊõÕ>ÀiʓˆiÃʜvʏ>À}iÞÊ՘vÀ>}“i˜Ìi`ÊvœÀiÃÌÊVœ˜Ì>ˆ˜Ê>ÊÀˆV…Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜvÊÌiÀÀiÃÌÀˆ>Ê
>˜`Ê>µÕ>̈Vʅ>LˆÌ>ÌÃÊ̅>ÌÊ«ÀœÛˆ`iÊÀivÕ}iÊvœÀʓœÀiÊ̅>˜ÊÎääÊLˆÀ`ÊëiVˆiðÊLœÕÌÊÓxÊ̜ÊÎäÊ«iÀVi˜ÌÊ>ÀiÊ
Þi>À‡ÀœÕ˜`ÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌÃÆÊ̅iÊÀiÃÌÊ>Àiʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊëiVˆiÃÊ̅>ÌÊ>ÀÀˆÛiʈ˜Ê̅iÊ1««iÀÊ*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>Êi>V…ÊëÀˆ˜}Ê
̜ÊLÀii`ʜÀÊi>V…Êv>Ê̜Ê܈˜ÌiÀ°ÊÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ܈Ê`ÀˆÛiÊVœ“«iÝÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê…>LˆÌ>Ì]ʵÕ>ˆÌÞ]Ê
>˜`Ê̈“ˆ˜}ʜvÊvœœ`ÊÀiÜÕÀViÃ]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊv>V̜ÀÃÊ̅>ÌÊ
1,ÊÓ£
-œ˜}LˆÀ`ÊiVˆ˜iÃÊÝ«iVÌi`
>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜Ê`ˆ“ˆ˜ˆÃ…ÊLˆÀ`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜ˜Ê̅iÊ1««iÀÊ
*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>ʈ˜Ê̅iÊvÕÌÕÀi°Ê>À`iÃÌʅˆÌÊ܈ÊLiÊ̅iÊ
“ˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊ>˜`Ê܈˜ÌiÀˆ˜}ÊëiVˆið
>LˆÌ>ÌÊV…>˜}iÃ]Ê«>À̈VՏ>ÀÞÊ̅iÊiÝ«iVÌi`ʘœÀ̅‡
Ü>À`ÊňvÌʜvÊLœÀi>ÊvœÀiÃÌÊëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊëÀÕViÊ>˜`Ê
vˆÀ]Ê܈Ê…>ÛiÊ«ÀœvœÕ˜`ʈ“«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊLˆÀ`ÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiðÊ
-«ÀÕVi]ÊvˆÀ]Ê>˜`ʅi“œVŽÊ>ÀiÊۈÌ>Ê̜Ê>ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ
ëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊVÀœÃÃLˆÃ]ÊÈΈ˜Ã]Ê}ÀœÃLi>ŽÃ]Ê>˜`Ê
LÀii`ˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÀLiÀÃÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÓ£>®°Ê/…iʘ>ÌÕÀiʜvÊ>Ê
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{x
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
«i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>Ê܈Ê>ÃœÊ“>ŽiʈÌʓœÀiÊ`ˆvvˆVՏÌÊvœÀÊ«>˜ÌÊ
Vœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiÃÊ̜ÊÀi뜘`ʵՈVŽÞÊ̜ÊV…>˜}iÃÊȘViÊ
̅iʏ>˜`ʈÃʈ܏>Ìi`ÊvÀœ“ÊÜÕÀViÃʜvʘiÜÊVœœ˜ˆÃÌðÊՓ>˜Ê>˜`‡ÕÃiÊV…>˜}iÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÃiVœ˜`‡…œ“iÊ
`iÛiœ«“i˜ÌÊ>˜`ʏœ}}ˆ˜}Ê܈Êˆ˜ÌiÀ>VÌÊ܈̅ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ̜ÊiÝ>ViÀL>Ìiʅ>LˆÌ>ÌʏœÃÃʜÀÊ`i}À>`>̈œ˜°
ʘՓLiÀʜvÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌÊLˆÀ`ÊëiVˆiÃʓˆ}…Ì]ʅœÜiÛiÀ]ÊLi˜ivˆÌÊvÀœ“ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}]ʈ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}ʓœVŽˆ˜}LˆÀ`Ã]Ê
V…ˆVŽ>`iiÃ]Êܜœ`«iVŽiÀÃ]Ê̈̓ˆVi]Ê>˜`ʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊV>À`ˆ˜>Ã°ÊœÀÊiÝ>“«i]ʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊV>À`ˆ˜>Ã]ÊV…ˆVŽ>‡
`iiÃ]Ê>˜`Ê̈̓ˆViʓˆ}…ÌÊLiÊ>LiÊ̜ÊÃÌ>ÀÌÊLÀii`ˆ˜}Êi>ÀˆiÀÊ>˜`ÊÀ>ˆÃiʓœÀiÊLÀœœ`ÃÊ܈̅ˆ˜Ê>ÊÃi>ܘÊ
̅>˜Ê̅iÞÊ`œÊ˜œÜ°™ÓʜÀiʈ“«œÀÌ>˜Ì]ÊÀi`ÕVi`Ê܈˜ÌiÀ‡Ài>Ìi`ʓœÀÌ>ˆÌÞʓˆ}…Ìʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ«œ«Õ>̈œ˜ÃÊ
œvÊ̅iÃiÊÞi>À‡ÀœÕ˜`ÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌðÊÌʓ>ÞÊ>ÃœÊi˜>LiÊܓiÊVœ`‡ˆ˜ÌœiÀ>˜ÌÊëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊ
>Àœˆ˜>Ê
ÜÀi˜Ê>˜`ÊÅ>À«‡Ã…ˆ˜˜i`ʅ>܎ÃÊ̜ÊiÝ«>˜`Ê̅iˆÀÊÀ>˜}iʘœÀ̅Ü>À`°™Î
/…iÊ«ÀœÃ«iVÌÃÊ>ÀiʏiÃÃÊÀœÃÞÊvœÀÊܘ}LˆÀ`ÃÊ̅>Ìʓˆ}À>ÌiÊ̜Ê̅iÊ1««iÀÊ*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>ÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊÌÀœ«ˆV>Ê
vœÀiÃÌÃʜvÊ
i˜ÌÀ>Ê>˜`Ê-œÕ̅ʓiÀˆV>Ê̜ÊLÀii`°Êœœ`ʓ>ÞÊLiÊÃV>ÀViÊ>œ˜}Ê̅iÊÀœÕÌiʈvÊÌÀiiÃʏi>vʜÕÌÊ
>˜`ʈ˜ÃiVÌÃʅ>ÌV…Êi>ÀˆiÀÊ̅>˜Ê˜œÀ“>Êˆ˜ÊÀi뜘ÃiÊ̜ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}°ÊœÀiÊۈÌ>Êˆ˜Ê̅iÊ1««iÀÊ*i˜ˆ˜ÃՏ>ʓ>ÞÊ
LiÊ>˜ÞÊV…>˜}iʈ˜Ê̅iÊëÀˆ˜}Êi“iÀ}i˜ViʜvÊ>µÕ>̈Vʈ˜ÃiVÌÃÊ>œ˜}Ê̅iÊŜÀiˆ˜iÊ>˜`ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÜȉ>˜`Ã]Ê
ȘViÊ̅ˆÃÊvÕÅʜvʈ˜ÃiVÌÃÊÃiÀÛiÃÊ>ÃÊ̅iÊ«Àˆ“>ÀÞÊvœœ`ÊÃÕ««ÞÊvœÀÊ>ÀÀˆÛˆ˜}ʓˆ}À>˜ÌðÊ
˜œÌ…iÀÊVœ˜ViÀ˜Ê>ÀˆÃiÃÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊv>VÌÊ̅>ÌÊ`ˆvviÀi˜ÌÊ«>ÀÌÃʜvÊ œÀ̅ʓiÀˆV>Ê>ÀiÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}Ê>˜`Ê܈Ê
«ÀœL>LÞÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÊ̜ÊÜ>À“Ê>ÌÊ`ˆvviÀi˜ÌÊÀ>ÌiðÊ-«Àˆ˜}ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃʈ““i`ˆ>ÌiÞÊ̜Ê̅iÊÜÕ̅ʜvÊ̅iÊ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
Ài>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê>ÀiÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʏiÃÃÊ̅>˜ÊëÀˆ˜}ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃʜLÃiÀÛi`ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÊˆÌÃiv°ÊvÊ̅iÃiÊ
>Ài>ÃÊ̜Ê̅iÊÜÕ̅ÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÊ̜ÊLiÊVœœiÀÊÀi>̈ÛiÊ̜Ê>Ài>ÃÊvÕÀ̅iÀʘœÀ̅]ʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊLˆÀ`Ãʓ>ÞÊv>ViÊ
>Ê`ˆi““>\Ê/…iÞʘii`Ê̜Ê>ÀÀˆÛiÊi>ÀˆiÀʜ˜Ê̅iˆÀʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊLÀii`ˆ˜}Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ã]ÊLÕÌʓ>ÞÊLiÊ՘>LiÊ
̜ʓˆ}À>ÌiÊLiV>ÕÃiÊvœœ`ÊÀiÜÕÀViÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊV>ÌiÀ«ˆ>ÀÃÊ>ÀiʘœÌÊÞiÌÊ>`iµÕ>ÌiÊ̜Ê>œÜÊ̅i“Ê̜Êv>ÌÌi˜Ê
Õ«ÊvœÀÊ̅iÊvˆ}…ÌÊvÀœ“Ê̅iˆÀʓœÀiÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜ÊÃÌ>}ˆ˜}Ê>Ài>ðʏÀi>`ÞÊܓiÊÜ>ÀLiÀÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊÞiœÜ‡
ÀՓ«i`ÊÜ>ÀLiÀÊÃii“Ê̜ÊLiÊ>ÀÀˆÛˆ˜}Êi>ÀˆiÀʜ˜Ê̅iˆÀÊ
1,ÊÓ£
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʓ«>VÌÃÊ
œ˜Ê7>ÌiÀvœÜ
LÀii`ˆ˜}Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ã]Ê>ÃÊiÝ«iVÌi`ʈvÊ̅iÞÊ>ÀiÊÀi뜘`‡
ˆ˜}Ê̜Êi>ÀˆiÀÊëÀˆ˜}Ã]Ê܅iÀi>Ãʜ̅iÀÊëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê
>ÃÊ̅iÊV…ˆ««ˆ˜}Êë>ÀÀœÜÊ>ÀiÊ>ÀÀˆÛˆ˜}ʏ>ÌiÀ]Ê«iÀ…>«ÃÊ
ˆ˜ÊÀi뜘ÃiÊ̜ÊVœ`iÀÊëÀˆ˜}Ãʈ““i`ˆ>ÌiÞÊ̜Ê̅iÊ
ÜÕ̅ʜvÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°™{
vÊܓiÊÞi>À‡ÀœÕ˜`ÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌÊLˆÀ`ÃÊ`œÊ̅ÀˆÛiÊ>˜`Ê
iÝ«>˜`ʈ˜Ê>ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi]Ê̅iˆÀÊÃÕVViÃÃʓ>ÞÊ
vÕÀ̅iÀÊÀi`ÕViÊ̅iÊvœœ`Ê>Û>ˆ>LiÊ̜ʫœ«Õ>̈œ˜ÃʜvÊ
“ˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊܘ}LˆÀ`ÃÊLÀii`ˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜]Êiëi‡
Vˆ>ÞʈvÊ̅iʺ«ÕÃi»Êœvʓˆ`ÃՓ“iÀʈ˜ÃiVÌÃʈÃÊ>ÃœÊ
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{x
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
Ài`ÕVi`°ÊœÀiÃÌÊLˆÀ`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃʈÃÊ
ˆ}…iÃÌʈ˜Ê˜œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê>Ài>ÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊ1««iÀÊ*i˜ˆ˜‡
ÃՏ>ʏ>À}iÞÊLiV>ÕÃiʜvÊ̅iʈ˜VÀi>Ãi`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜvʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊëiVˆiðÊ7>À“ˆ˜}Ê̅iÀivœÀiʓ>ÞÊÀi`ÕViÊ
vœÀiÃÌÊLˆÀ`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʈvÊviÜiÀÊÀiÜÕÀViÃÊ>ÀiÊ>Û>ˆ>LiÊ̜ʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊܘ}LˆÀ`ðÊ"˜iÊÃÌÕ`ÞÊ«ÀœiVÌÃÊ̅>ÌÊ
̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÊVœÕ`ʏœÃiʓœÀiÊ̅>˜Ê…>vʈÌÃÊÌÀœ«ˆV>Ê“ˆ}À>˜ÌÃ]Ê>Ì…œÕ}…ʘiÜÊLˆÀ`ÊëiVˆiÃÊ
Vœœ˜ˆâˆ˜}ÊvÀœ“ÊœÕÌÈ`iÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÊVœÕ`ÊVÕÌÊ̅iʘiÌʏœÃÃʈ˜ÊLˆÀ`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞÊ̜ÊәʫiÀVi˜Ì°Ê7>ÌiÀvœÜÊ
>ÀiÊ>ÃœÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜Ê`iVˆ˜i°Ê-ÌÕ`ˆiÃÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Êi>ÀˆiÀÊ>˜`ʓˆ`iÀÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊvœÀiV>ÃÌÃÊ̅>˜Ê̅œÃiÊÕÃi`Ê
ˆ˜Ê̅ˆÃÊÀi«œÀÌÊ«ÀœiVÌÊ£™Ê̜ÊΙʫiÀVi˜ÌÊ`iVˆ˜iÃʈ˜Ê`ÕVŽÊ˜Õ“LiÀÃÊLÞÊ̅iÊÓäÎäÃʈ˜ÊÀi뜘ÃiÊ̜ʏœÃÌÊ
LÀii`ˆ˜}Ê>˜`ʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞʅ>LˆÌ>ÌÃÊ>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊ`iVˆ˜iÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ>µÕ>̈VÊ«>˜ÌÃʜ˜Ê܅ˆV…Ê`ÕVŽÃÊvii`°™x
œÃÃʜvÊLˆÀ`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞÊ܈Ê…>ÛiÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVÊ>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊiVœœ}ˆV>ÊVœ˜ÃiµÕi˜ViðÊ7ˆ`ˆviÊÜ>ÌV…ˆ˜}p
«Àˆ˜Vˆ«>ÞÊLˆÀ`ÊÜ>ÌV…ˆ˜}pˆÃÊ>ÊfΰxÊLˆˆœ˜Ê­1-®Ê>ÊÞi>Àʈ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞʈ˜Ê˜œÀ̅iÀ˜ÊˆV…ˆ}>˜]ʈ˜˜iÜÌ>]Ê
>˜`Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜°Ê˜Ê>``ˆÌˆœ˜]ʅ՘̈˜}pˆ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÌiÀvœÜÊ…՘̈˜}pˆÃÊ>ÊfΰnÊLˆˆœ˜Ê­1-®Êˆ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÃiÊ̅ÀiiÊÃÌ>ÌiÃÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÓ£L®°ÊiÈ`iÃÊ̅iÃiÊ«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVʏœÃÃiÃ]Ê>Ê`iVˆ˜iʈ˜ÊLˆÀ`ÃÊ܈Ê
“i>˜Ê>ʏœÃÃʈ˜ÊiVœœ}ˆV>ÊÃiÀۈViÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÃii`Ê`ˆÃ«iÀÃ>Ê>˜`ʈ˜ÃiVÌÊVœ˜ÌÀœ°
WATERSHED ARE DEPOSITED THERE AND THESE SYSTEMS
SUPPORT RICH PLANT BIRD AND lSH COMMUNITIES
)NLAND WETLANDS ARE EVEN MORE DIVERSE AND RANGE
FROM ENTIRELY RAINDRIVEN SYSTEMS SUCH AS BOGS TO
RIPARIAN WETLANDS FED BY CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
SURFACE AND GROUND WATER "OGS AND FENS COVER
EXTENSIVE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN 'REAT ,AKES REGION
AND CONTAIN A WIDE VARIETY OF ACIDLOVING PLANTS
INCLUDING THE WIDELY KNOWN PITCHER PLANT
“«>VÌÃʜvÊ
>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊÞ`Àœœ}ÞÊ
!LL WETLAND TYPES ARE SENSITIVE TO ALTERATIONS IN
HYDROLOGY THAT ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY CLIMATE
CHANGE SUMMARIZED IN 4ABLE P ! WARMER
AND DRIER CLIMATE WILL THREATEN BOTH INLAND AND
COASTAL WETLANDS ALTHOUGH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
DURING WINTER AND SPRING AND INTENSE STORM EVENTS
MAY AT TIMES OFFSET THE GENERALLY DECREASED WATER
LEVELS 4HE LARGEST IMPACT SHOULD BE ON RAINFALL
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
DEPENDENT WETLANDS SINCE SYSTEMS THAT ARE LARGELY
BACTERIA IN WETLAND SOILS )NCREASED OXYGEN CONCENTRA
RECHARGED BY GROUND WATER ARE MORE RESISTANT TO
TIONS IN EXPOSED SOILS ESPECIALLY WHEN ACCOMPANIED
CLIMATEDRIVEN CHANGES 0ROJECTED DECLINES IN SUM
BY ACID PRECIPITATION MAY RELEASE OTHER METALS SUCH
MER RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
AS CADMIUM COPPER LEAD AND ZINC AND WETLANDS
THE REGION &IGURE P WILL ALSO CAUSE DRYING OF
DOWNSTREAM OF INDUSTRIAL EFmUENTS COULD FACE IN
PRAIRIE POTHOLES AND SIMILAR DEPRESSIONAL WETLANDS
CREASED RISK OF HEAVY METAL CONTAMINATION DURING
3OME IMPACTS WILL BE POSITIVE !LTHOUGH DROPPING
PERIODS OF LOW WATER
WATER LEVELS WILL CAUSE WETLANDS TO SHRINK NEW VEGETA
#ARBON STORED IN WETLAND SOILS MAY ALSO BE LOST TO
TION MAY COLONIZE FORMERLY OPENWATER HABITATS ON SOME
THE ATMOSPHERE IN A WARMER CLIMATE .ORTHERN PEAT
EXPOSED SHORELINES CREATING NEW TYPES OF HABITAT
LANDS SUCH AS THOSE FOUND IN -INNESOTA AND /NTARIO
)N WETLANDS FRINGING THE 'REAT ,AKES SHORELINE
FORM WHEN COLD TEMPERATURES AND WATERLOGGED SOILS
DAMAGE AND EROSION ARE LIKELY
LIMIT THE RATE OF DECOMPOSITION
TO DECREASE AS WATER LEVELS
OF CARBONRICH PLANT ORGANIC
ˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ܈ÊiÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊ MATTER 7ARMER TEMPERA
DROP
4HE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
TURES ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE THE
Փ>˜Ê`ˆÃÌÕÀL>˜ViÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ
CHANGE WILL OFTEN EXACERBATE
RATE OF ORGANIC MATTER DECOM
`Ài`}ˆ˜}Ê>˜`Êvˆˆ˜}]ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
CONTINUING DIRECT HUMAN DIS
POSITION AND ACCELERATE CARBON
TURBANCES SUCH AS DREDGING AND
RELEASE TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN
`ˆÛiÀȜ˜]Ê>˜`Ê«œṎœ˜°
lLLING WATER DIVERSION AND
THE FORM OF #/ #ARBON
POLLUTION !S DEMANDS FOR
RELEASE FROM WETLANDS IN THE
PUBLIC DRINKING WATER SUPPLIES AND IRRIGATION WATER
FORM OF METHANE WHICH IS TIMES MORE POTENT
INCREASE FOR EXAMPLE GROUNDWATER PUMPING MAY POSE
THAN #/ AS A GREENHOUSE GAS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE GREATEST THREAT TO EPHEMERAL WETLANDS !LSO THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER WATER LEVELS
SPREAD OF INVASIVE SPECIES SUCH AS PHRAGMITES PURPLE
2EDUCED STREAM mOW IN SUMMER WILL ALSO DECREASE
LOOSESTRIFE AND %URASIAN WATER MILFOIL POSES AN ADDED
THE AMOUNT OF DISSOLVED ORGANIC CARBON WASHED FROM
THREAT TO MANY WETLAND COMMUNITIES ESPECIALLY WHEN
LAND INTO SURFACE WATERS ,ESS DISSOLVED ORGANIC CAR
HABITAT OR ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES ARE DISRUPTED
BON RESULTS IN CLEARER WATER WHICH ALLOWS HIGHER DOSES
OF ULTRAVIOLET" RADIATION TO PENETRATE FURTHER THROUGH
VœÃÞÃÌi“Ê՘V̈œ˜ˆ˜}
THE WATER COLUMN /RGANISMS SUCH AS FROGS LIVING
7ETLANDS SERVE AS THE MAIN INTERFACE FOR MOVING
IN SHALLOW WATERS WILL BE AT GREATEST RISK BECAUSE 56"
NUTRIENTS POLLUTANTS AND SEDIMENTS FROM LAND TO
PENETRATION IS GENERALLY RESTRICTED TO THE TOP TWO TO
WATER $ECREASED RUNOFF FROM THE LAND PARTICULARLY IN
EIGHT INCHES OF THE SURFACE WATER )N DEEPER WATERS
SUMMER WILL DECREASE THE DEPOSITION OF MATERIAL FROM
ORGANISMS CAN lND REFUGE FROM THE HARMFUL
UPLANDS INTO WETLANDS 4HE MATERIAL THAT DOES ENTER
RADIATION
WETLANDS WILL BE RETAINED LONGER HOWEVER BEFORE HIGH
WATER PULSES mUSH IT DOWNSTREAM INTO LAKES AND RIVERS
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Êˆœ`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞ
!LTHOUGH DECOMPOSITION RATES WILL INCREASE WITH
7ETLAND PLANT AND ANIMAL COMMUNITIES ARE CONTIN
WARMER TEMPERATURES mUCTUATING WATER LEVELS COMBINED
UALLY ADAPTING TO CHANGING WATER LEVELS ALTHOUGH
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE THE
EXTREME EVENTS SUCH AS DROUGHT OR mOODING CAN RESULT
CAPACITY OF WETLANDS TO ASSIMILATE NUTRIENTS AND
IN PERSISTENT DISTURBANCE TO COMMUNITY STRUCTURE AND
HUMAN AND AGRICULTURAL WASTES
FUNCTIONS SUCH AS DECOMPOSITION RATES AND PRODUC
&LUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS AND SOIL MOISTURE ALSO
TIVITY #LIMATE WARMING IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME
INmUENCE THE RELEASE OF NUTRIENTS AND HEAVY METALS
WETLAND SPECIES TO SHIFT THEIR RANGES TO ACCOMMODATE
,OWER WATER LEVELS EXPOSE MORE ORGANIC WETLAND SOILS
THEIR HEAT TOLERANCES "ECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES IN BREED
TO OXYGEN WHICH MAY REDUCE EXPORTS OF MERCURY MER
ING HABITS AGE TO MATURITY OR DISPERSAL RATES SOME
CURY BINDS WITH OXYGEN AND IS IMMOBILIZED BUT ALSO
SPECIES ARE MORE VULNERABLE THAN OTHERS TO DISTURBANCE
MAY REDUCE THE BREAKDOWN OF NITRATE BY DENITRIFYING
AND CHANGE %ARLIER SPRING OR SUMMER DRYING OF
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
NÊ
œœÀʈ}ÕÀiÃ
Õ`ܘÊ>Þ
L>˜ÞÊ,ˆÛiÀ
"}œŽˆÊ,ˆÛiÀ
>ŽiÊ
ˆ«ˆ}œ˜
1,Ê£
ˆ«ˆ}œ˜Ê
,ˆÛiÀ
/…iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
" /,"
/…Õ˜`iÀÊ>ÞÊU
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊn
+1
>ŽiÊ-Õ«iÀˆœÀ
ՏÕ̅ÊU
->ՏÌÊ-Ìi°Ê>ÀˆiÊU
ii
˜Ê
À
ˆ}>˜
Þ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʓ>˜`>Ê7>ˆÌÉ
Ê
œ““Õ˜ˆV>̈œ˜Ã
>
Ê
"7
>˜
ˆÜ>ՎiiÊU
}ˆ
œÀ
Àœ˜
ÊÕ
Àii˜Ê>ÞÊU
Uʜ˜ÌÀi>
UÊ"ÌÌ>Ü>
-Ì°Ê>ÜÀi˜ViÊ,ˆÛiÀ
œÀ˜Ü>ÊU
UÊ>ÃÃi˜>
i
7-
" -
"ÌÌ>Ü>Ê,ˆÛiÀ
-Ì°Ê>ÀÞ¿ÃÊ,ˆÛiÀ
>Þ
-"/
ˆ˜}Ã̜˜ÊU UÊ
>«iÊ6ˆ˜Vi˜Ì
-Ì°Ê
>ˆÀÊ,ˆÛiÀ
>ŽiÊ-Ì°Ê
>ˆÀ
iÌÀœˆÌÊU
iÌÀœˆÌÊ,ˆÛiÀ
ˆV>}œÊU
/œi`œÊU
ˆV>}œÊ
>˜>
>ŽiÊ"˜Ì>Àˆœ
Ê/œÀœ˜ÌœÊU
>ÞÊ
ˆÌÞÊU
>ŽiʈV
i
>Ž
/…iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊL>ȘÊi˜Vœ“«>ÃÃiÃÊ
“œÀiÊ̅>˜ÊÎän]äääÊõÕ>ÀiʓˆiÃʜvÊ
̅iÊ œÀ̅ʓiÀˆV>˜Ê…i>À̏>˜`Ê>˜`Ê
Vœ˜Ì>ˆ˜ÃÊ̅iʏ>À}iÃÌÊȘ}iÊVœ˜Vi˜‡
ÌÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvʏˆµÕˆ`ÊvÀiÅÊÜ>ÌiÀʜ˜Ê̅iÊ
«>˜iÌ°ÊÌʈÃÊ>ʏ>˜`ʜvÊëiVÌ>VՏ>ÀÊ
>ŽiÃ]ÊÛ>ÃÌÊÜȉ>˜`Ã]ÊviÀ̈iÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜Ê
܈Ã]Ê>˜`ÊÀÕ}}i`ʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊÌiÀÀ>ˆ˜Ê
vœÀiÃÌi`ʈ˜ÊëÀÕViÊ>˜`ÊwÊÀ°Ê/…iÊÈäÊ
“ˆˆœ˜Ê«iœ«iÊ܅œÊˆÛiʅiÀiÊ>ÀiÊ
i>ۈÞÊVœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>Ìi`ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÜÕ̅]Ê
>˜`Ê̅iˆÀÊ>V̈œ˜ÃÊ«ÀœvœÕ˜`ÞÊ>vviVÌÊ
̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊiVœœ}ˆV>ÊLœÕ˜ÌÞÊ
>˜`Ê̅iʏˆvi‡ÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜ˆ˜}ÊLi˜iwÊÌÃÊ
ˆÌÊ«ÀœÛˆ`ið
i˜œ}>“ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀ
œ˜}Ê
>Ži
UÊ"ÃÜi}œ
ˆ>}>À>Ê
UÊ,œV…iÃÌiÀ
>Ã
7i>˜`Ê
>˜>
ˆ>}>À>Ê,ˆÛiÀ
UÊÕvv>œ
7Ê9",
Àˆi
iÊ
>Ž
UÊ
iÛi>˜`
*
ˆ˜ˆœÃÊ7>ÌiÀÜ>Þ
-96 ""
"-
-
Ê£\xÊäääÊäää
ä
ä
xä
£ää
Óx xä
£xä
Óää
Óxä Žˆœ“ˆiÃ
Çx £ää £Óx £xä £Çx “ˆiÃ
1,ÊÓ
->ÌiˆÌi‡iÀˆÛi`Ê>«ÃÊ-…œÜˆ˜}Ê
>˜`Ê
œÛiÀÊ>˜`Ê-œˆÊÀ>ˆ˜>}i
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊn
ÕÀÀi˜ÌÊ«>ÌÌiÀ˜ÃʜvÊÀi}ˆœ˜>Ê>˜`ÊVœÛiÀʓˆÀÀœÀÊ̅iÊ`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜ÊœvÊ܈ÃÊ>˜`Ê
Ãi`ˆ“i˜ÌÃʏivÌÊLÞÊÀi«i>Ìi`Ê}>Vˆ>̈œ˜°Ê/…iÊVœ`iÀÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ>˜`Ê̅ˆ˜]ÊVœ>ÀÃi‡ÌiÝÌÕÀi`Ê
܈ÃʜvÊ̅iÊ
>˜>`ˆ>˜Ê-…ˆi`ÊÃÕ««œÀÌÊiÝÌi˜ÃˆÛiÊLœÀi>ÊvœÀiÃÌÃ]Ê܅ˆiÊ̅iÊÜ>À“iÀÊ
Vˆ“>ÌiÊ>˜`Ê`ii«]ÊviÀ̈iÊ܈Ãʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃʏœÜ>˜`Ê>Ài>ÃÊÃÕ««œÀÌʓÕV…ÊœvÊ̅iÊ
>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜ÊvœÀÊLœÌ…Ê
>˜>`>Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>Ìið
-œÕÀVi\Ê>˜`ÊVœÛiÀʈ“>}iÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞÊ
œvʈÃÌÀˆLÕÌi`ÊV̈ÛiÊÀV…ˆÛiÊ
i˜ÌiÀÊ
­*Ê
®]Ê1--½ÃÊ,"-Ê>Ì>Ê
i˜ÌiÀ
-œˆÊ`À>ˆ˜>}iʈ“>}iÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ
-//-"É ,
-É >̈œ˜>Ê
>À̜}À>«…ÞÊ
>˜`Ê-Ê
i˜ÌiÀÉ1-É}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀiÊ
>˜`Ê}Àˆ‡œœ`Ê
>˜>`>
1--Ê Ê
"6,
-"Ê, ,"* 1,
" ,"1-Ê",-/
1"1-Ê",-/
8Ê",-/
,--É-,1
7/,
,/Ê-Ê-
,"
Ê ,Ê-1,
6,9Ê*"",
*"",
-"7/Ê*"",
",/9Ê7
7
,*
7/,
,/Ê-Ê-
ä
ä
£ää Óää
Îää
{ää
xää Žˆœ“iÌiÀÃ
xä £ää £xä Óää Óxä Îää Îxä “ˆiÃ
ä
ä
ä
£ää Óää Îää {ää xää ˆœ“iÌiÀÃ
£ää Óää
Îää
{ää
xää Žˆœ“iÌiÀÃ
xä £ää £xä Óää Óxä Îää Îxä “ˆiÃ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
£Ó]xää]äää
1,ÊÎ
*œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê
>˜}iʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ
>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜Ê­£™xäqÓä䣮Ê
*œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê­ˆ˜Ê“ˆˆœ˜Ã®
£ä]xää]äää
vÀœ“Ê«>}iʙ
ˆ˜œˆÃ
˜`ˆ>˜>
ˆV…ˆ}>˜
ˆ˜˜iÜÌ>
"…ˆœ
"˜Ì>Àˆœ
7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜
n]xää]äää
È]xää]äää
{]xää]äää
"ÛiÀÊ̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊ`iV>`i]Ê«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê}ÀiÜÊ
LÞÊ>˜Ê>ÛiÀ>}iʜvÊn°ÇÊ«iÀVi˜Ìʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ
>ŽiÃÊÃÌ>ÌiÃÊ>˜`Ê£Ó°ÓÊ«iÀVi˜Ìʈ˜Ê"˜Ì>Àˆœ°Ê
/…iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ>˜`ÊëiVˆiÃÊ
>Ài>`ÞÊv>Viʈ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê«ÀiÃÃÕÀiÊvÀœ“ʏ>˜`Ê
`iÛiœ«“i˜ÌÊ>˜`ÊÕÀL>˜ÊëÀ>܏]Ê>ˆÀÊ>˜`Ê
Ü>ÌiÀÊ«œṎœ˜]Ê>˜`ʘ>ÌÕÀ>ÊÀiÜÕÀViÊ
iÝÌÀ>V̈œ˜°Ê/…iÊ>V̈ۈ̈iÃʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê
«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê܈Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãiʅi>̇ÌÀ>««ˆ˜}Ê
i“ˆÃȜ˜Ã]Ê܅ˆV…]ʈ˜ÊÌÕÀ˜]Ê܈ÊiÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊ
i݈Ã̈˜}Êi˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì>ÊÃÌÀiÃÃið
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Êivi˜ÃiÊiÌiœÀœœ}ˆV>Ê->ÌiˆÌiÊ*Àœ}À>“Ê
­-*®Ê>˜`Ê "Ê->ÌiˆÌiÊ>˜`ʘvœÀ“>̈œ˜Ê-iÀۈViÃ
-œÕÀVi\Ê1-Ê`>Ì>ÊvÀœ“ÊÕÀi>ÕʜvÊVœ˜œ“ˆVʘ>ÞÈÃÊ­®ÆÊ
>˜>`ˆ>˜Ê`>Ì>ÊvÀœ“Ê"˜Ì>ÀˆœÊˆ˜ˆÃÌÀÞʜvʈ˜>˜Vi
Ó]xää]äää
£™xä
£™Èä
£™Çä
£™nä
£™™ä
Óäää
9i>À
1,Ê{
/…iÊ7œÀ`½ÃÊ/…ˆÀ`‡>À}iÃÌÊVœ˜œ“Þ
­ˆ˜Êˆˆœ˜ÃʜvÊ1-ʜ>Àî
vÀœ“Ê«>}iʙ
/…iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊiVœ˜œ“ÞʈÃʏ>À}iÊ>˜`Ê`ˆÛiÀÈwÊi`]Ê܈̅ÊÀi}ˆœ˜>Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê
ˆ˜ÊÓäääÊ̜Ì>ˆ˜}ʘi>ÀÞÊfÓÊÌÀˆˆœ˜Ê­1-®p>˜Ê>“œÕ˜ÌÊ̅>ÌÊiÝVii`ÃÊ̅iÊ}ÀœÃÃÊ
`œ“iÃ̈VÊ«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜ÊœvÊ>˜Þʘ>̈œ˜ÊiÝVi«ÌÊ̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>ÌiÃÊ>˜`Ê>«>˜°Ê
/…iÊÃiÀۈViÃÊÃiV̜À]ʈ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}Ê̜ÕÀˆÃ“Ê>˜`ÊÀiVÀi>̈œ˜>Ê>V̈ۈ̈iÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ
LˆÀ`Ü>ÌV…ˆ˜}]ʅ՘̈˜}]ÊLœ>̈˜}]Ê>˜`ÊΈˆ˜}]ʅ>ÃÊ}ÀœÜ˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ș}ÞÊ
ˆ“«œÀÌ>˜ÌÊ>˜`ʈÃʘœÜʜ˜iʜvÊ̅iʏ>À}iÃÌÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVÊÃiV̜ÀÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°
-œÕÀVi\ÊÕÀi>ÕʜvÊVœ˜œ“ˆVʘ>ÞÈÃÊ­Óäää®
/À>˜Ã«œÀÌ>̈œ˜
EÊ*ÕLˆVÊ1̈ˆÌˆiÃ
­£Îä]Î{™®
/À>`i
­ÓÇn]n{n®
œÛiÀ˜“i˜Ì
˜ÌiÀ«ÀˆÃiÃ
­£ÇÈ]x䙮
œ˜ÃÌÀÕV̈œ˜
­nÎ]xn{®
1,Êx
/…iÊ
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê
>À>VÌiÀÊ
œvÊ̅iÊ,i}ˆœ˜Ê
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£ä
ˆ˜>˜Vi]ʘÃÕÀ>˜Vi]
EÊ,i>ÊÃÌ>Ìi
­Ó™Ó]{ÓÇ®
-iÀۈViÃ
­Î{È]Î{Ó®
>˜Õv>VÌÕÀˆ˜}
­ÎnÎ]ÈÈÓ®
ˆ˜ˆ˜}
­x]ä™{®
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê-iÀۈViÃ]
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê-iÀ
œÀiÃÌÀ ʈň˜}
œÀiÃÌÀÞ]
­£n]™{n®
ˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ܈ÊÌÀ>˜ÃvœÀ“Ê̅iÊV…>À‡
>VÌiÀʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê>˜ÞÊ
LiœÛi`Ê«>ViÃ]Ê«Àˆâi`ÊëiVˆiÃ]ÊëiVˆ>Ê
>V̈ۈ̈iÃ]Ê>˜`Ê`iwʘˆ˜}ÊV…>À>VÌiÀˆÃ̈VÃÊ܈Ê
LiʏœÃÌʜÀÊ>ÌiÀi`°Ê/…iʓ>}˜ˆwÊVi˜ÌÊvœÀiÃÌÃÊ
>˜`Ê«ÀˆÃ̈˜iʏ>ŽiÃʜvʈV…ˆ}>˜]ʈ˜˜iÜÌ>]Ê
iÜÊ9œÀŽ]Ê>˜`Ê"˜Ì>Àˆœp>Ê…œ“iÊ̜Ê̅iÊ
Vœ““œ˜Êœœ˜p܈ÊLiÊ>ÌiÀi`Ê>ÃÊÌi“«iÀ‡
>ÌÕÀiÃÊÀˆÃiÊ>˜`Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê«>ÌÌiÀ˜ÃÊ
V…>˜}i°
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ÊÊÞi7ˆÀi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,ÊÇ
ˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê/Ài˜`Ãʈ˜ÊÝÌÀi“iÊ,>ˆ˜v>ÊÛi˜ÌÃÊ­£™Î£q£™™È®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£{
ÀiµÕi˜VÞÊ
˜VÀi>Ãi
£ää¯
xä¯
ä¯
/…iÊ«>ÃÌÊÎäÊÞi>ÀÃÊÜiÀiÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊÜiÌÌiÃÌʈ˜Ê̅iÊÓä̅ÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ°Ê"ÛiÀÊ̅ˆÃÊ«iÀˆœ`]ʅi>ÛÞÊÃՓ“iÀÊ`œÜ˜«œÕÀÃʅ>ÛiÊ>ÃœÊ
LiVœ“iʓœÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜Ì]ÊVœ˜ÌÀˆLṎ˜}Ê̜ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜Êyʜœ`ˆ˜}ʈ˜ÊÓ>‡Ê>˜`ʓi`ˆÕ“‡Ãˆâi`ÊÃÌÀi>“ðÊÝÌÀi“iÊÀ>ˆ˜Ã̜À“ÃÊV>˜Ê
ÃÜ>“«Ê“Õ˜ˆVˆ«>ˆÌˆiýÊÃiÜ>}iÊ>˜`ÊÃ̜À“Ü>ÌiÀÊV>«>VˆÌˆiÃ]ʈ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê̅iÊÀˆÃŽÃʜvÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ«œṎœ˜Ê>˜`ÊÜ>ÌiÀLœÀ˜iʈ˜viV̈œÕÃÊ
`ˆÃi>Ãiðʘʣ™™Î]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]ÊiÝÌi˜`i`ÊÀ>ˆ˜v>ÃÊ>˜`ÊÀ՘œvvʜÛiÀ܅i“i`ʈÜ>Վii½Ãʓ՘ˆVˆ«>Ê`Àˆ˜Žˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ«ÕÀˆwÊV>‡
̈œ˜ÊÃÞÃÌi“Ê>˜`ʏi`Ê̜Ê>ÊVÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆÕ“ÊœÕÌLÀi>Ž]ÊV>ÕȘ}Ê{äÎ]äääÊV>ÃiÃʜvʈ˜ÌiÃ̈˜>Êˆ˜iÃÃÊ>˜`Êx{Ê`i>̅ðÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê
,i«Àœ`ÕVi`Ê܈̅Ê
«iÀ“ˆÃȜ˜ÊvÀœ“Ê
՘ŽiÊiÌÊ>°Ê­£™™™®]Ê
œÕÀ˜>ÊœvÊ
ˆ“>Ìi
œÛÊ£
>ÃÌiÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
7iÃÌiÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
-…iÊ>Ži]Ê7
ˆÀÀœÀÊ>Ži]Ê 9
iVÊ£
1,Ên
>ŽiÊ*>Vˆ`]Ê 9
Àiiâi
>ŽiÊi˜`œÌ>]Ê7
"ÌÃi}œÊ>Ži]Ê 9
Àiiâi
>˜Ê£
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£{
iLÊ£
À>˜`Ê/À>ÛiÀÃiÊ>Þ]Ê>ŽiʈV…ˆ}>˜
>ÀÊ£
À>˜`Ê/À>ÛiÀÃiÊ>Þ]Ê>ŽiʈV…ˆ}>˜
Ài>ŽÕ«
>ŽiÊi˜`œÌ>]Ê7
>ÞÊ£
-VÕ}œ}Ê>Ži]Ê"
Ài>ŽÕ«
«ÀÊ£
-ˆ“VœiÊ>Ži]Ê"˜Ì>Àˆœ
-…iÊ>Ži]Ê7
>ŽiÊ*>Vˆ`]Ê 9
£n{Ó £nÈÓ £nnÓ £™äÓ £™ÓÓ £™{Ó £™ÈÓ £™nÓ ÓääÓ
£n{Ó £nÈÓ £nnÓ £™äÓ £™ÓÓ £™{Ó £™ÈÓ £™nÓ ÓääÓ
ÀiiâiÊ
œ˜}‡ÌiÀ“Ê`>Ì>
­näʜÀʓœÀiÊÞi>Àî
>ÃÌÊÓÊ`iV>`iÃ
>˜}iʈ˜Ê/ˆ“ˆ˜}Ê
œvÊ>ŽiÊÀiiâiÃÊ
>˜`Ê/…>ÜÃ
Ài>ŽÕ«
7iÃÌiÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃ
>ÃÌiÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃ
7iÃÌiÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃ
>ÃÌiÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃ
“i>˜r£°Ó
À>˜}irä°ÇÊ̜ÊÓ°x
>ŽiÊÃ>“«irx
“i>˜rä°Î
À>˜}ir‡ä°£Ê̜Êä°È
>ŽiÊÃ>“«irx
“i>˜rä°Ç
À>˜}ir‡ä°ÎÊ̜ÊÓ°™
>ŽiÊÃ>“«ir£Î
“i>˜rä°xÊ Ê
À>˜}iräÊ̜ʣ°x
>ŽiÊÃ>“«ir£Î
“i>˜rΰ{
À>˜}ir‡Ó°ÇÊ̜ʣΰx
>ŽiÊÃ>“«irÓ{
“i>˜rä°Î
À>˜}ir‡x°{Ê̜Êx°{
>ŽiÊÃ>“«irÓx
“i>˜rÓ°n
À>˜}ir‡£°£Ê̜ʣx°Ó
>ŽiÊÃ>“«irÎn
“i>˜rä°£Ê Ê
À>˜}ir‡Î°nÊ̜Ên°{
>ŽiÊÃ>“«irÎ{
,iVœÀ`ÃʜÛiÀÊ̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊ
näÊÞi>ÀÃÊVœ˜ÃˆÃÌi˜ÌÞÊ
ŜÜÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÃʜvʈViÊ
VœÛiÀʜ˜Êˆ˜>˜`ʏ>ŽiÃÊ
ŜÀÌi˜ˆ˜}]Ê>ÃÊv>Ê
vÀiiâiÃʜVVÕÀʏ>ÌiÀÊ>˜`Ê
ëÀˆ˜}Ê̅>ÜÃÊi>ÀˆiÀ°Ê
,i`ÕVi`ʈViÊVœÛiÀʏi>`ÃÊ
̜Ê}Ài>ÌiÀÊiÛ>«œÀ>̈œ˜Ê
vÀœ“Êœ«i˜ÊÜ>ÌiÀʈ˜Ê
܈˜ÌiÀ]ÊVœ˜ÌÀˆLṎ˜}Ê
̜ʏœÜiÀÊÜ>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃ°Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Êˆ˜>˜`ʏ>ŽiÊ
ˆViÊVœÛiÀÊ>ÀiÊ}Ài>ÌiÃÌʈ˜Ê
ˆV…ˆ}>˜]ʈ˜˜iÜÌ>]Ê
>˜`Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜°
-œÕÀVi\Ê>Ì>ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ/°Ê°Ê
>ÀŽ]Ê>˜`Ê°Ê°Ê>}˜Õܘ]Ê,°Ê°Ê
ÃÃi]Ê6°Ê
>À`]Ê°ÊÕÌÌiÀ]Ê*°Ê°Ê
-œÀ>˜˜œ]Ê>˜`Ê°Ê°Ê-ÌiÜ>ÀÌ
ÀiiâiÊ>˜`ÊLÀi>ŽÕ«ÊV…>˜}iʈ˜Ê`>ÞÃÊ«iÀÊ`iV>`i°Ê*œÃˆÌˆÛiÊV…>˜}iʈ˜`ˆV>ÌiÃÊ>ʏ>ÌiÀÊvÀiiâiÊ`>ÌiÊ>˜`Ê>˜Êi>ÀˆiÀÊLÀi>ŽÕ«Ê`>Ìi°Ê
i}>̈ÛiÊV…>˜}iʈ˜`ˆV>ÌiÃÊ>˜Êi>ÀˆiÀÊvÀiiâiÊ`>ÌiÊ>˜`ʏ>ÌiÀÊLÀi>ŽÕ«Ê`>Ìi°
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
1,ÊÈÊ
"LÃiÀÛi`Ê>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iʈ˜ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ>ˆÞÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
­ÛiÀ>}i`Ê"ÛiÀʘ̈ÀiÊ,i}ˆœ˜®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£Î
L܏ÕÌiÊ
>˜}iʈ˜Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ­c®
­Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä®
Óx
"LÃiÀÛi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]Ê
Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊ
Óä
7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊ­iVi“LiÀ]Ê>˜Õ>ÀÞ]ÊiLÀÕ>ÀÞ®
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]Ê
Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä]ÊvœÀÊ
̅iʏœÜ‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
£x
£ä
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]Ê
Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä]ÊvœÀÊ
̅iʅˆ}…‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
x
ä
"LÃiÀÛi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]Ê
£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜
‡x
࣊
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
Ó£ää
9i>À
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]Ê
£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]Ê
L>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê…ˆ}…‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ
Óx
L܏ÕÌiÊ
>˜}iʈ˜Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ­c®
­Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä®
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi]Ê
£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]Ê
L>Ãi`ʜ˜ÊœÜ‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ
Óä
-Փ“iÀʭ՘i]ÊՏÞ]ÊÕ}ÕÃÌ®
£x
£ä
x
ä
‡x
࣊
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
Ó£ää
9i>À
Ì…œÕ}…Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊVˆ“>ÌiʈÃʅˆ}…ÞÊÛ>Àˆ>Li]Ê>˜>ÞÃiÃʜvʅˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê`>Ì>ÊÀiÛi>Ê>Ê
ÀiVi˜ÌÊ>˜`ÊÈ}˜ˆwÊV>˜ÌÊňvÌʈ˜ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ­ivÌ®Ê>˜`Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê­Àˆ}…Ì®]ÊVœ˜ÃˆÃÌi˜ÌÊ
܈̅ʜÕÀÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê՘`iÀÃÌ>˜`ˆ˜}ʜvÊ>ÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi°ÊÞÊ̅iÊi˜`ʜvÊ̅iÊÓ£ÃÌÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ]Ê
>ÛiÀ>}iÊÃՓ“iÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>ÀiÊ«ÀœiVÌi`Ê̜ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊLÞÊxÊ̜ÊÓäœÊ­ÎÊ̜ʙœ
®°Ê/…ˆÃÊ
>À}iÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÀ>˜}iÊÀiyÊiVÌÃÊ̅iÊ`ˆvviÀi˜ViÊLiÌÜii˜Ê>ʏœÜ‡Ê>˜`Ê>ʅˆ}…‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ°ÊՓ>˜ÃÊV>˜ÊÀi`ÕViʅi>̇ÌÀ>««ˆ˜}Ê}>ÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ã]Ê܅ˆV…ÊܜՏ`ʅi«ÊŽii«Ê̅iÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ>ÌÊ̅iʏœÜiÀÊi˜`ʜvÊ̅iÊÀ>˜}i°Ê˜ÊLœÌ…ÊÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃ]Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ>˜˜Õ>Ê
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊÛ>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞÊLiÌÜii˜ÊÜiÌÊ>˜`Ê`ÀÞÊÞi>ÀÃÊ>ÀiÊ«ÀœiVÌi`Ê̜ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊψ}…̏ްÊ
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê7ÕiLLiÃ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,ÊÈ
"LÃiÀÛi`Ê>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iʈ˜ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ>ˆÞÊ*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê
­ÛiÀ>}i`Ê"ÛiÀʘ̈ÀiÊ,i}ˆœ˜®
*iÀVi˜Ì>}iÊ
>˜}iʈ˜Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê­¯®Ê
­Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£Î
£ää
"LÃiÀÛi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]ÊÀi>̈ÛiÊ̜Ê
£™È£q£™™äÊ
nä
7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊ­®
Èä
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]ÊÀi>̈ÛiÊ̜Ê
£™È£q£™™ä]ÊvœÀÊ̅iʏœÜ‡Ê
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
{ä
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]ÊÀi>̈ÛiÊ̜Ê
£™È£q£™™ä]ÊvœÀÊ̅iʅˆ}…‡Ê
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
Óä
ä
"LÃiÀÛi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]Ê£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘‡
˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜
‡Óä
‡{ä
‡Èä
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
Ó£ää
*iÀVi˜Ì>}iÊ
>˜}iʈ˜Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê­¯®Ê
­Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä®
9i>À
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ‡
>}iÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]Ê£ä‡Þi>ÀÊ
À՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]ÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê
œÜ‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜]Ê£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘‡
˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]ÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê…ˆ}…‡Ê
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
£ää
nä
-Փ“iÀÊ­®
Èä
{ä
Óä
ä
‡Óä
‡{ä
‡Èä
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
Ó£ää
9i>À
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
£nä
,>ÌiʜvʜÃÃr£™Ê`>ÞÃÊ«iÀÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ
,Órä°£Ç
1,ʙ
ViÊ
œÛiÀÊÕÀ>̈œ˜Êœ˜Ê
>ŽiÊi˜`œÌ>]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜
Þ`Àœœ}ˆVʓœ`iÃÊ«Ài`ˆVÌÊ`À>Ã̈VÊ
Ài`ÕV̈œ˜Ãʈ˜ÊˆViÊVœÛiÀʜ˜ÊLœÌ…Ê
̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ>˜`ʈ˜>˜`ÊÜ>ÌiÀðÊ
Àiiâi‡Õ«Ê…>ÃÊLii˜ÊVœ“ˆ˜}ʏ>ÌiÀÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊv>Ê>˜`ʈVi‡œÕÌÊi>ÀˆiÀʈ˜Ê̅iÊ
ëÀˆ˜}ÊvœÀÊ̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞÊ>˜`Ê>Ê
>v°Ê7…ˆiʈViÊVœÛiÀÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜Ê…>ÃÊ
`iVˆ˜i`ʜÛiÀÊ̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊnäÊÞi>ÀÃ]Ê
̅iʏ>ÃÌÊÓäÊÞi>ÀÃʅ>ÃÊÃii˜Ê̅iÊ
“œÃÌÊÀ>«ˆ`ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜°Ê>ŽiÊ
i˜`œÌ>]ʘi>ÀÊ>`ˆÃœ˜]Ê
7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]ʈÕÃÌÀ>ÌiÃÊ̅ˆÃÊÌÀi˜`°Ê
-œÕÀVi\ʜ…˜Ê°Ê>}˜Õܘ]Ê`>Ì>ÊvÀœ“Ê œÀ̅Ê
/i“«iÀ>ÌiÊ>ŽiÃÊ/,Ê`>Ì>L>Ãi]Ê
i˜ÌiÀÊvœÀÊ
ˆ“˜œœ}Þ]Ê1˜ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜvÊ7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜‡>`ˆÃœ˜
ViÊ
œÛiÀÊÕÀ>̈œ˜Ê­`>Þî
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£x
£xä
£Óä
™ä
Èä
Îä
˜˜Õ>ÊˆViÊVœÛiÀÊ
`ÕÀ>̈œ˜
ä
£nxäqx£
,i}ÀiÃȜ˜Êˆ˜i
£™ääqä£
Óä‡Þi>ÀÊ
À՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜
£™xäqx£
Óäääqä£
1,棊
*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÕÀˆ˜}Ê-Փ“iÀÊ>˜`Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊLÞÊÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê
­,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä]ÊÛiÀ>}iÊvœÀʜ܇Ê>˜`ʈ}…‡“ˆÃȜ˜Ê-Vi˜>ÀˆœÃ®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£Ç
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊ­®Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊvœÀʜÜʓˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê-Փ“iÀÊ­®Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊvœÀʜÜʓˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
xä
n°™
£È
xä
n°™
{n
Ç°n
£x
{n
Ç°n
£{
£Î
{È
È°Ç
£Ó
££
{{
x°È
£ä
™
{Ó
{°{
n
Ç
{ä
În
™x7
™ä7
nx7
nä7
ΰÎ
È
c
c
xä
£x
n°™
È°Ç
Ç°n
x°È
È°Ç
{°{
{ä
x°È
£È
£{
£Ó
£ä
™
{Ó
{°{
{ä
n
Ç
În
™x7
™ä7
nx7
nä7
ΰÎ
È
c
c
Çx7
n
Ç
ΰÎ
È
c
c
În
™ä7
nx7
nä7
Çx7
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊ­®Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊvœÀʈ}…Ê“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
££
{{
£ä
™
{Ó
™x7
£Î
{È
£Ó
££
{{
xä
n°™
{n
Ç°n
£x
{n
£{
£Î
{È
Çx7
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê-Փ“iÀÊ­®Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊvœÀʈ}…Ê“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
£È
£È
£x
£{
£Î
{È
È°Ç
£Ó
££
{{
x°È
£ä
™
{Ó
{°{
{ä
n
Ç
În
™x7
™ä7
nx7
nä7
ΰÎ
È
c
c
Çx7
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>ÀiÊ
iÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊÀˆÃiÊ
Å>À«ÞÊ̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ
̅iʘiÝÌÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞÊ>˜`Ê
̜ÊÛ>ÀÞÊÃÕLÃÌ>˜Ìˆ>ÞÊ
LÞÊÃi>ܘÊ>˜`Ê>VÀœÃÃÊ
̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀ]Ê
vœÀÊiÝ>“«i]Ê̅iÊ
}Ài>ÌiÃÌÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʈÃÊ
iÝ«iVÌi`Ê>Ìʅˆ}…iÀÊ
>̈ÌÕ`iÃ]Ê܅ˆiʈ˜Ê
ÃՓ“iÀ]Ê̅iÊ}Ài>ÌiÃÌÊ
V…>˜}iÃÊ܈ÊœVVÕÀÊ
œÛiÀÊ̅iÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜Ê
>˜`ÊÜiÃÌiÀ˜Ê«>ÀÌÃÊ
œvÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê/…iÊ
Ãi>ܘ>ÊVÞViʜvÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiʜÛiÀÊ
̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÊˆÃÊ>ÃœÊ
«ÀœiVÌi`Ê̜ÊňvÌ]Ê
܈̅ÊÃՓ“iÀ]Ê>˜`Ê̜Ê
>ʏiÃÃiÀÊiÝÌi˜ÌÊ܈˜ÌiÀ]Ê
Ü>À“ˆ˜}ʓœÀiÊ̅>˜Ê
ëÀˆ˜}Ê>˜`Êv>°ÊÞÊ
̅iʏ>ÃÌÊ̅ÀiiÊ`iV>`iÃÊ
œvÊ̅iÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ]ÊÌi“‡
«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜Ê
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊÃÕLÃÌ>˜Ìˆ>ÞÊ
ˆ˜Ê>ÊÃi>ܘðÊ
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê
7ÕiLLiÃ
1,ʙ
ˆÌiÃʜ˜ÊViÊ7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊiÃ̈Û>ÊÓääÓÊ
œ˜Ê>Žiʜ˜œ˜>]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£x
œ˜}iÀʈVi‡vÀiiÊ«iÀˆœ`Ãʓ>ÞÊiÝÌi˜`Ê̅iÊ
ň««ˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘʜ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊLÕÌÊ܈Ê
Ài`ÕViʈViÊwÊň˜}]ʈViÊLœ>̈˜}]ÊΈˆ˜}]Ê؜܇
“œLˆˆ˜}]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊ܈˜ÌiÀÊ>V̈ۈ̈iÃ]ÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ
̅iʺˆÌiÃʜ˜ÊVi»Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊviÃ̈Û>Êˆ˜Ê>`ˆÃœ˜°Ê
/…iÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜Õˆ˜}Ê`iVˆ˜iʈ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀʈViÊVœÛiÀÊ
̅ÕÃÊ«ÀiÃ>}iÃÊ>ÊÃiÛiÀiÊVՏÌÕÀ>ÊňvÌÊvœÀÊ̅iÊ
Ài}ˆœ˜]Ê܅iÀiÊ܈˜ÌiÀÊv՘ʜ˜ÊˆViʅ>Ãʏœ˜}ÊLii˜Ê
>˜Êˆ˜Ìi}À>Ê«>ÀÌʜvÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌýÊÃi˜ÃiʜvÊ«>Vi°Ê
œ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiÃÊ`i«i˜`i˜Ìʜ˜ÊÀiÛi˜ÕiÃÊvÀœ“Ê
Vœ`‡Üi>̅iÀÊ>V̈ۈ̈iÃÊVœÕ`ÊLiʅ>À`ʅˆÌÊLÞÊ
Ü>À“Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>˜`ʏiÃÃÊ؜ܰÊ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʜ…˜Ê°Ê>}˜Õܘ
1,Ê££
ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê-i>ܘʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
­"LÃiÀÛi`Ê>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÃ]Ê£™ääqÓ£ää®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£Ç
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊEÊ7ÕiLLiÃ
Óä
"LÃiÀÛi`ʏi˜}̅Ê
œvÊ>˜˜Õ>Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê
Ãi>ܘ
>ÌiʜvÊ>ÃÌÊÀœÃÌʈ˜Ê-«Àˆ˜}
ä
*ÀœiVÌi`ʏi˜}̅Ê
œvÊ>˜˜Õ>Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê
Ãi>ܘÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜ÊœÜ‡Ê
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
‡Óä
ՓLiÀʜvÊ>ÞÃ]Ê,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
œ“«>Ài`Ê܈̅Ê̅iÊ
Li}ˆ˜˜ˆ˜}ʜvÊ̅iÊÓä̅Ê
Vi˜ÌÕÀÞ]Ê̅iÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}Ê
Ãi>ܘÊ̜`>ÞʈÃÊ>LœÕÌÊ
œ˜iÊÜiiŽÊœ˜}iÀ]Ê
«Àˆ“>ÀˆÞÊLiV>ÕÃiÊ̅iÊ
>ÃÌÊëÀˆ˜}ÊvÀœÃÌÃʅ>ÛiÊ
Vœ“iÊi>ÀˆiÀ°Ê/…iʏi˜}̅Ê
œvÊ̅iÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘÊ
܈ÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÊ̜ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ
ÜÊ̅>ÌÊLÞÊ̅iÊi˜`ʜvÊ
̅ˆÃÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ]ʈÌʓ>ÞÊ
LiÊvœÕÀÊ̜ʘˆ˜iÊÜiiŽÃÊ
œ˜}iÀÊ̅>˜ÊœÛiÀÊ̅iÊ
«iÀˆœ`Ê£™È£q£™™ä°Ê
7…ˆiÊ>ÊÜ>À“iÀ]ʏœ˜}iÀÊ
}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘʓ>ÞÊ
ˆ“«ÀœÛiÊ>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê
«Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞ]ÊÃÕV…Ê
Vœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜Ãʓ>ÞÊ>ÃœÊ
v>VˆˆÌ>ÌiÊ̅iÊLՈ`իʜvÊ
>À}iÊ«iÃÌÊ«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ã°Ê
*ÀœiVÌi`ʏi˜}̅ʜvÊ
>˜˜Õ>Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>‡
ܘÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê…ˆ}…‡Ê
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
‡{ä
{ä
"LÃiÀÛi`ʏi˜}̅ʜvÊ
}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘ]Ê£ä‡
Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜
>ÌiʜvʈÀÃÌÊÀœÃÌʈ˜ÊÕÌՓ˜
*ÀœiVÌi`ʏi˜}̅ʜvÊ
}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘ]Ê£ä‡
Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]Ê
L>Ãi`ʜ˜ÊœÜ‡i“ˆÃ‡
Ȝ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
Óä
*ÀœiVÌi`ʏi˜}̅ʜvÊ
}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘ]Ê£ä‡
Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]Ê
L>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê…ˆ}…‡i“ˆÃ‡
Ȝ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
ä
‡Óä
i˜}̅ʜvÊÀœÜˆ˜}Ê-i>ܘ
ÓÓä
Óää
£nä
£Èä
£{ä
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
Ó£ää
9i>À
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
1,Ê£ÓÊ
*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊÕÀˆ˜}Ê-Փ“iÀÊ>˜`Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊLÞÊÓäÇäqÓ䙙
­,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™ä]ÊÛiÀ>}iÊvœÀʜ܇Ê>˜`ʈ}…‡“ˆÃȜ˜Ê-Vi˜>ÀˆœÃ®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£n
ÛiÀ>}iÊ>˜˜Õ>Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê“>Þʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊψ}…̏ÞÊLÞÊ̅iÊi˜`ʜvÊ̅iÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ]ÊLÕÌÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜>ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ
“>ÞÊ>VÌÕ>ÞÊLiVœ“iÊ`ÀˆiÀʜÛiÀ>ÊLiV>ÕÃiÊ>˜Þʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜ÊÀ>ˆ˜ÊœÀÊ؜ÜÊ>ÀiÊ՘ˆŽiÞÊ̜ÊVœ“«i˜Ã>ÌiÊvœÀÊ
̅iÊ`Àވ˜}ÊivviVÌÃʜvʈ˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊiÛ>«œÀ>̈œ˜Ê­vÀœ“Ê܈ÃÊ>˜`ÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀîÊ>˜`ÊÌÀ>˜Ã«ˆÀ>̈œ˜Ê­Àii>ÃiʜvÊ
“œˆÃÌÕÀiÊvÀœ“Ê«>˜Ìî°Ê-i>ܘ>Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊVÞViÃÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ÊLiʓœÀiÊiÝÌÀi“i]Ê܈̅Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊ>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}Ê
À>ˆ˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê>˜`ÊÃՓ“iÀÊÀ>ˆ˜Ê`iVÀi>Ș}ÊLÞÊÕ«Ê̜ÊxäÊ«iÀVi˜Ì°Ê/…iʏ>À}iÃÌÊÃՓ“iÀÊ`iVÀi>ÃiÃÊ>ÀiÊ
iÝ«iVÌi`ʜÛiÀÊ̅iÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜Ê>˜`ÊÜiÃÌiÀ˜Ê«>ÀÌÃʜvÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜]Ê܅iÀiʓœÃÌÊ>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀiʈÃÊVœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>Ìi`°Ê
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê7ÕiLLiÃ
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊ­®Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊvœÀʜÜʓˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
¯Ê
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê-Փ“iÀÊ­®Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊvœÀʜÜʓˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
¯Ê
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
xä
Çä
xä
Çä
Èä
Èä
{n
xä
{ä
{È
Îä
Óä
{{
£ä
ä
{Ó
{n
xä
{ä
{È
Îä
Óä
{{
£ä
ä
{Ó
࣊
࣊
{ä
‡Óä
{ä
‡Óä
‡Îä
‡Îä
În
¯
™x7
™ä7
nx7
nä7
În
Çx7
™x7
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê-Փ“iÀÊ­®Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊvœÀʈ}…Ê“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
¯Ê
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
xä
¯
™ä7
nx7
nä7
Çx7
ÓäÇäqÓ䙙Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÊ­®Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊvœÀʈ}…Ê“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ
¯Ê
>˜}iÊ,i>̈ÛiÊ̜ʣ™È£q£™™äÊÛiÀ>}i
Çä
xä
Çä
Èä
{n
xä
{ä
{È
Îä
Óä
{{
£ä
ä
{Ó
࣊
{ä
‡Óä
În
¯
Èä
{n
xä
{ä
{È
Îä
Óä
{{
£ä
ä
{Ó
࣊
{ä
‡Óä
‡Îä
™x7
™ä7
nx7
nä7
Çx7
‡Îä
În
¯
™x7
™ä7
nx7
nä7
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
Çx7
1,Ê£Î
-i>ܘ>Ê*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê
ÞViÊ
­ˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê>Ãiˆ˜iÊ>˜`Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê
>˜}iÃ]Ê£ä‡>ÞÊ,՘˜ˆ˜}Êi>˜®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£n
œ`ii`Ê`>ˆÞÊ
>ÛiÀ>}iÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆ‡
Ì>̈œ˜Ê>ÛiÀ>}i`Ê
œÛiÀÊ£™È£q£™™ä
x°x
>ˆÞÊÛiÀ>}iÊ*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê­““É`>Þ®
/…iÊ«ÀœiVÌi`ÊÃi>ܘ>Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>‡
̈œ˜ÊňvÌÃ]Ê܈̅Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊ>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}Ê
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê>˜`ÊÃՓ‡
“iÀÊÀ>ˆ˜Ê`iVÀi>Ș}]ÊÌÀ>˜Ã>Ìiʈ˜ÌœÊ
>ÊVˆ“>ÌiʜvʓœÀiÊiÝÌÀi“iðÊi>ÛÞÊ
`œÜ˜«œÕÀÃ]Êyʜœ`Ã]ʅi>ÌÊÜ>ÛiÃ]Ê
`ÀœÕ}…ÌÃ]Ê>˜`Ê̜À˜>`œiÃÊ>ÀiÊ
iÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊLiʓœÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜Ìʈ˜Ê>Ê
Ü>À“iÀÊܜÀ`]ʈ˜VÀi>Ș}ÊLÕÀ`i˜ÃÊ
œ˜Êi“iÀ}i˜VÞʓ>˜>}i“i˜Ì]Ê«ÕLˆVÊ
ܜÀŽÃ]Ê>˜`ʅi>Ì…ÊV>ÀiÊÃiÀۈViÃÊ>˜`Ê
iÝ>V̈˜}Ê>Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}Êwʘ>˜Vˆ>Ê̜Ê
œ˜Ê…œ“iœÜ˜iÀÃ]Ê}œÛiÀ˜“i˜ÌÃ]Ê
>˜`ÊLÕȘiÃÃiðʏˆ˜œˆÃʅ>ÃÊiÝ«iÀˆ‡
i˜Vi`Ê>ÊÃÌ>ÀŽÊ«ÀiۈiÜʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊvÕÌÕÀiÊ
ÃVi˜>ÀˆœÊ`ÕÀˆ˜}Ê̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊ£xÊÞi>ÀÃÊ
܈̅Ê>ÊÃiÛiÀiÊ`ÀœÕ}…Ìʈ˜Ê£™nn]ÊÌܜÊ
ˆÃÈÃÈ««ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀÊyʜœ`Ã]Ê>ÊÃiÛiÀiÊÀ>ˆ˜‡
Ã̜À“ʈ˜Ê
ˆV>}œÊˆ˜Ê£™™È]ÊÌܜÊ`i>`‡
Þʅi>ÌÊÜ>ÛiÃ]Ê>Ê£™™™Ê܈˜`‡Ã̜À“Ê
ˆ˜Êœœ“ˆ˜}̜˜]Ê>˜`ʘՓiÀœÕÃÊ
̜À˜>`œið
x
*ÀœiVÌi`Ê`>ˆÞÊ
>ÛiÀ>}iÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆ‡
Ì>̈œ˜]Ê>ÛiÀ>}i`Ê
œÛiÀÊ̅iÊ«iÀˆœ`Ê
ÓäÓxqÓäÎ{]ÊvœÀÊ
̅iʅˆ}…iÀʓˆ`‡Ê
À>˜}i‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ
{°x
{
*ÀœiVÌi`Ê`>ˆÞÊ
>ÛiÀ>}iÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆ‡
Ì>̈œ˜]Ê>ÛiÀ>}i`Ê
œÛiÀÊ̅iÊ«iÀˆœ`Ê
Óä™äqÓ䙙]ÊvœÀÊ
̅iʅˆ}…iÀʓˆ`‡Ê
À>˜}i‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ
ΰx
Î
Ó°x
Ó
, *, 9 1
1 1 -* "
/
"6 œ˜Ì
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê7ÕiLLiÃ
1,Ê£{
˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvÊi>ÛÞÊ,>ˆ˜v>ÊÛi˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£™
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê
7ÕiLLiÃ
Î
ÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvÊi>ÛÞÊ,>ˆ˜v>ÊÛi˜ÌÃÊ­Ài>̈ÛiÊ̜Ê>˜Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
œvʜ˜iÊiÛi˜ÌÉÞi>ÀÊ`ÕÀˆ˜}Ê̅iʅˆÃ̜ÀˆV>Ê«iÀˆœ`Ê£™ääqÓäää®
/…iʘiÝÌÊÃiÛiÀ>Ê
`iV>`iÃÊ܈Ê>“œÃÌÊ
ViÀÌ>ˆ˜ÞÊÃiiÊVœ˜‡
̈˜Õi`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜Ê
i>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>p
«iÀ…>«ÃÊ`œÕLˆ˜}Ê
LÞÊÓ£ääp܈̅Ê
œ˜}iÀÊ`ÀÞÊëiÃʈ˜Ê
LiÌÜii˜°Ê/…iʈ˜Ìi˜‡
ÈÌÞʜvÊiÝÌÀi“iÊÀ>ˆ˜‡
v>ÊiÛi˜ÌÃʓ>ÞÊ>ÃœÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi°Ê1«}À>`ˆ˜}Ê
Ü>ÌiÀÊVœ˜ÌÀœÊˆ˜vÀ>‡
ÃÌÀÕVÌÕÀiÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê
ˆÃ̜ÀˆV>ÊvÀiµÕi˜VˆiÃÊ
œvÊiÝÌÀi“iÊiÛi˜ÌÃÊ
܈Ê̅ÕÃÊLiʈ˜>`i‡
µÕ>Ìiʈ˜Ê>ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}Ê
ܜÀ`]ÊiëiVˆ>ÞÊ>ÃÊ
“œÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÊ`œÜ˜‡
«œÕÀÃʈ˜ÌiÀ>VÌÊ܈̅Ê
“œÀiʈ“«iÀۈœÕÃÊ
ÃÕÀv>ViðÊ
"LÃiÀÛi`ʜVVÕÀÀi˜ViÊ
œvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>ÊiÛi˜ÌÃÊ
L>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê>˜Ê>ÛiÀ>}iÊ
œvʜ˜iÊ«iÀÊÞi>À
­>®ÊÓ{qœÕÀÊÛi˜ÌÃ
Ó
*ÀœiVÌi`ʜVVÕÀÀi˜ViÊ
œvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃÊvœÀÊ̅iʏœÜiÀÊ
“ˆ`À>˜}i‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ
£
*ÀœiVÌi`ʜVVÕÀÀi˜ViÊ
œvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃÊvœÀÊ̅iʅˆ}…iÀÊ
“ˆ`À>˜}i‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ
Î
­L®ÊÇq>ÞÊÛi˜ÌÃ
"LÃiÀÛi`ÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞÊ
œvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃ]ÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜
Ó
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞÊ
œvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃÊvœÀÊ̅iʏœÜiÀÊ
“ˆ`À>˜}i‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ]ÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}Ê
“i>˜
£
ä
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
9i>À
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
Ó£ää
*ÀœiVÌi`ÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞÊ
œvʅi>ÛÞÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê
iÛi˜ÌÃÊvœÀÊ̅iʅˆ}…iÀÊ
“ˆ`À>˜}i‡i“ˆÃȜ˜Ê
ÃVi˜>Àˆœ]ÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}Ê
“i>˜
#OLOR &IGURES
1,Ê£È
ˆ}À>̈˜}Ê
ˆ“>Ìi\Ê
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÃÊ>˜`Ê-Փ“iÀÃʈ˜Êˆ˜œˆÃÊ>˜`ʈV…ˆ}>˜Ê
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£™
"Ê
ÕÀÀi˜Ì
ÕÀÀi˜Ì
ÞÊÓäÎä
ÞÊÓäÎä
ÞÊÓä™x
ÞÊÓä™x
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê7ˆ˜ÌiÀÃÊ­Ê>ÛiÀ>}i®Ê
ˆ˜Êˆ˜œˆÃÊ>˜`ʈV…ˆ}>˜Ê
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê-Փ“iÀÃÊ­Ê>ÛiÀ>}i®Ê
ˆ˜Êˆ˜œˆÃÊ>˜`ʈV…ˆ}>˜Ê
/…iÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ>˜`Ê«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê`iÃVÀˆLi`ʈ˜Ê̅ˆÃÊÀi«œÀÌÊ܈ÊÃÌÀœ˜}ÞÊ>ÌiÀÊ
œÜÊ̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊviiÃÊ̜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀiÈ`i˜ÌðÊ7ˆÌ…ˆ˜Ê̅ÀiiÊ`iV>`iÃ]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]Ê>ÊÃՓ“iÀÊ
ˆ˜Êˆ˜œˆÃʓ>ÞÊviiÊˆŽiÊ>ÊÃՓ“iÀʈ˜Ê"Ž>…œ“>Ê`œiÃÊ̜`>ÞÊ­Àˆ}…ÌÊ«>˜i®°ÊÞÊ̅iÊi˜`ʜvÊ̅iÊ
Vi˜ÌÕÀÞ]Ê>˜Êˆ˜œˆÃÊÃՓ“iÀʓ>ÞÊÜiÊviiÊˆŽiʜ˜iʈ˜Êi>ÃÌÊ/iÝ>ÃÊ̜`>Þ]Ê܅ˆiÊ>ʈV…ˆ}>˜ÊÃՓ“iÀÊ
܈Ê«ÀœL>LÞÊviiÊˆŽiÊ>˜ÊÀŽ>˜Ã>ÃÊÃՓ“iÀ°ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ܈˜ÌiÀÊVˆ“>ÌiÃÊ܈Êȓˆ>ÀÞÊňvÌÊ­ivÌÊ
«>˜i®]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊÃÌ>ÌiÃÊ>˜`Ê«ÀœÛˆ˜ViÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê܈ÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜ViÊVœ“«>À>LiÊV…>˜}iðÊ
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê7ÕiLLiÃ
1,棂
“«>VÌÃÊ
œ˜Ê>ŽiÊ
VœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÓ£
*ÀœiVÌi`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜ÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê>˜`ÊÀ՘œvvʈ˜Ê̅iÊëÀˆ˜}]ÊvœœÜi`ÊLÞÊ
>Ê`ÀˆiÀÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘÊ>˜`ʓœÀiÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê`ÕÀˆ˜}ʅ>ÀÛiÃÌÊ̈“iÃ]Ê܈Ê
VÀi>ÌiÊ>ÊV…>i˜}ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊÃVi˜>ÀˆœÊvœÀÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊv>À“iÀðÊ
-…ˆvÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ̈“ˆ˜}ʜvÊ«>˜Ìˆ˜}Ê>˜`ʅ>ÀÛiÃÌ]ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜ÊˆÀÀˆ}>̈œ˜]Ê
>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊ>`ÕÃ̓i˜ÌÃʓ>ÞÊLiÊÀiµÕˆÀi`Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}ið
œÀ̅iÀ˜Êˆ˜˜iÜÌ>½ÃÊ*ˆ˜iÊ>ŽiʈÃʜ˜iʜvʓ>˜ÞÊ̅>ÌÊ`œÌÊ
̅iÊ>˜`ʜvÊ£ä]äääÊ>ŽiðÊ/…ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê̅iÃiʏ>ŽiÃÊ
`ˆvviÀÊ܈`iÞÆÊi>V…ʏ>Ži½ÃÊ՘ˆµÕiÊV…>À>VÌiÀˆÃ̈VÃÊ܈Ê`iÌiÀ“ˆ˜iÊ
œÜʈÌÊ܈ÊLiÊ>vviVÌi`ÊLÞÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}i°Ê˜Ê}i˜iÀ>]ʅœÜ‡
iÛiÀ]ÊÜ>À“iÀÊ>ˆÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ʏi>`Ê̜ʈ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê
Ü>ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ]Ê܅ˆV…]ʈ˜ÊÌÕÀ˜]ÊV>˜ÊœÜiÀÊÜ>ÌiÀʏiÛiÊ>˜`Ê
œÝÞ}i˜ÊVœ˜Ìi˜Ì°Ê/…iÃiÊVœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜Ãʓ>ÞÊ>VViiÀ>ÌiÊ̅iÊ>VVՇ
“Տ>̈œ˜ÊœvʓiÀVÕÀÞÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊVœ˜Ì>“ˆ˜>˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ>µÕ>̈VÊ
vœœ`ÊV…>ˆ˜Ê>˜`]ÊՏ̈“>ÌiÞ]ʈ˜ÊwÊÅ°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê
œÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ̅iÊ1˜ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜvʈ˜˜iÜÌ>
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê>ÀÀÞÊ,ˆVŽiÀ]Ê,ʓ>}iÃ
1,Ê£x
*ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê-…ˆvÌÃÊ-ˆ}˜>Ê/ÀœÕLiÊvœÀÊ>À“iÀÃÊ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊ£™
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,Ê£n
>ŽiÊ-ÌÀ>̈wÊV>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊiÛiœ«“i˜Ìʜvʺi>`Ê<œ˜iûÊ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÓÓ
-«Àˆ˜}
-Փ“iÀ
Ü>À“
1,Ê£n
Ü>À“iÀ
>ŽiʈV…ˆ}>˜ÊˆÃ…ʈ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÓÎ
"ÝÞ}i˜
ÛiÀÞÊÜ>À“
-ÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜ÊLi}ˆ˜Ã\ÊÊ
Ü>À“ÊÃÕÀv>Viʏ>ÞiÀʜvÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
`iÛiœ«ÃʜÛiÀÊVœœiÀ]Ê`ii«iÀÊ
Ü>ÌiÀÃÆÊÃÕÀv>ViÊVÕÀÀi˜ÌÃÊ>ÀiÊ
VÕÌʜvvÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊ`ii«iÀÊÜ>ÌiÀÃÊ
>˜`ÊV>˜˜œÌÊÃÕ««ÞÊ̅i“Ê܈̅Ê
>̓œÃ«…iÀˆVʜÝÞ}i˜
-ÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜Êˆ˜Ìi˜ÃˆvˆiÃ\
/…iÊÃÕÀv>Viʏ>ÞiÀÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÃÊ
̜ÊÜ>À“Ê܅ˆi]ʈ˜Ê̅iÊ`ii«‡
iÃÌÊÜ>ÌiÀ]Ê̅iʜÝÞ}i˜ÊiÛiÊ
`Àœ«ÃÊ>ÃʈÌʈÃÊ>LÜÀLi`ÊLÞÊ
̅iÊLœÌ̜“ÊÃi`ˆ“i˜ÌÃ
>ÌiÊ-Փ“iÀ
>
Vœ`Ê܈̅ÊäÓ
Vœ`Ê܈̅Ê
`iVÀi>Ș}ÊäÓ
Vœ`Ê܈̅Ê
œÜiÃÌʏiÛiÊœvÊäÓ
"ÝÞ}i˜
-ÌÀ>̈vˆV>̈œ˜Ê«i>ŽÃ\
¼i>`Ê✘i½ÊvœÀ“ÃÊ>ÃÊ
œÜʜÝÞ}i˜ÊiÛiÃÊëÀi>`Ê
̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊ`ii«ÊÜ>ÌiÀÃ
/ÕÀ˜œÛiÀ\ÊÃÊ̅iÊÃÕÀv>ViÊ
>ÞiÀÊVœœÃ]Êv>Ê܈˜`ÃÊ
}i˜iÀ>ÌiÊVÕÀÀi˜ÌÃÊ̅>ÌÊ>ÀiÊ
ÃÌÀœ˜}Êi˜œÕ}…Ê̜ÊV>ÀÀÞÊ
œÝÞ}i˜Ê̜Ê̅iÊLœÌ̜“Ê
Ü>ÌiÀÃÊ>˜`ÊÀiÌÕÀ˜Ê̅iˆÀÊ
œÝÞ}i˜ÊiÛiÃÊ̜ʘœÀ“>
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʜ…˜Ê°Ê>}˜Õܘ
-œÕÀVi\Ê>Ãi`ʜ˜Êˆ˜vœÀ“>̈œ˜Ê«ÀœÛˆ`i`ÊLÞÊÀˆ>˜Ê-…ÕÌiÀ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʓ>˜`>Ê7>ˆÌÉÊ
œ““Õ˜ˆV>̈œ˜Ã
ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìiʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃÊ̅iÊ`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊÃՓ“iÀÊÃi«>À>̈œ˜ÊœvÊÕ««iÀÊ>˜`ʏœÜiÀÊÜ>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃÊ
­Ž˜œÜ˜Ê>ÃÊÃÌÀ>̈wÊV>̈œ˜®Êˆ˜Ê̅iÊ`ii«Ê>ŽiðÊ/…ˆÃ]ʈ˜ÊÌÕÀ˜]ʓ>ŽiÃÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÊ>˜`ʏ>À}iÀʺ`i>`Ê✘iûp
>Ài>ÃʜvÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ`i«iÌi`ʜvʜÝÞ}i˜Ê>˜`Ê՘>LiÊ̜ÊÃÕ««œÀÌʏˆvip“œÀiʏˆŽiÞ°Ê*iÀÈÃÌi˜ÌÊ`i>`Ê✘iÃÊV>˜Ê
ÀiÃՏÌʈ˜Ê̜݈VÊ>}>ÊLœœ“Ã]ÊvœÕ‡Ã“iˆ˜}]ʓÕÃÌއÌ>Ã̈˜}Ê`Àˆ˜Žˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÌiÀ]Ê`>“>}iÊ̜ÊwÊÅiÀˆiÃ]Ê>˜`Ê
“>ÃÈÛiÊwÊÅʎˆÃpÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÃii˜Ê…iÀiʜ˜Ê̅iÊŜÀiÃʜvÊÀii˜Ê>Þ]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Êˆ˜ÊÓä䣰Ê>ŽiÊÀˆiÊ
ÀiVi˜ÌÞÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜Vi`Ê>ʏ>À}iÊ>˜`Ê՘iÝ«iVÌi`Ê`i>`Ê✘iÊi«ˆÃœ`iʈ˜ÊÓä䣰Ê
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
1,Ê£™
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê-ÌÀi>“ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÓÇ
7>À“iÀÊ>ˆÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>˜`Ê`ÀˆiÀÊVœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜ÃÊ܈ÊÌÀ>˜Ã>Ìiʈ˜ÌœÊœÜiÀÊÃՓ‡
“iÀÊÃÌÀi>“ÊyʜÜÊ>˜`ʏiÃÃÊÃÌÀi>“Ê…>LˆÌ>Ì°Êi>`Ü>ÌiÀÊÃÌÀi>“Ã]ÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iʈÌ̏iÊ
ˆ>“ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀʈ˜Ê"…ˆœ]ÊVœ“«ÀˆÃiÊ>««ÀœÝˆ“>ÌiÞÊÇxÊ«iÀVi˜ÌʜvÊ̅iÊÀˆÛiÀʓˆiÃʈ˜Ê
>ÊÜ>ÌiÀÅi`Ê>˜`Ê>ÀiÊ«ÀœL>LÞÊ̅iʓœÃÌÊÛՏ˜iÀ>LiʜvÊ>Ê>µÕ>̈VÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ
՘`iÀÊ̅iÃiÊVœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜Ã°Ê7>À“iÀÊÜ>ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ]ʅˆ}…iÀÊVœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>̈œ˜ÃÊ
œvÊVœ˜Ì>“ˆ˜>˜ÌÃÊ>ÃÊÜ>ÌiÀÊۜÕ“iÊ`iVˆ˜iÃ]Ê>˜`ÊÀi`ÕVi`ÊÌÀ>˜Ã«œÀÌʜvʘÕÌÀˆi˜ÌÃÊ
>˜`ʜÀ}>˜ˆVʓ>ÌÌiÀÊVœ“Lˆ˜iÊ̜ÊV>ÕÃiÊ`ˆÃÀի̈œ˜ÃʜvÊ>µÕ>̈VÊvœœ`ÊÜiLðÊ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʈŽiÊ7ˆˆ>“Ã]Ê"…ˆœÊi«>À̓i˜ÌʜvÊ >ÌÕÀ>Ê,iÜÕÀViÃ
1,ÊÓÓÊ
1,ÊÓä
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê7ȉ>˜`ÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
iœ«>À`ÊÀœ}ʈ˜Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Ê
7ȉ>˜`Ê
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊә
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊxÎ
>ÀˆiÀʈViÊLÀi>ŽÕ«Ê>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}ÊÀ՘œvv]ʓœÀiʈ˜Ìi˜ÃiÊyʜœ`ˆ˜}]Ê>˜`ʏœÜiÀÊÃՓ“iÀÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
iÛiÃʓi>˜ÊÌÀœÕLiÊvœÀÊÜȉ>˜`ÃÊ>˜`Ê̅iÊëiVˆiÃÊ̅>ÌÊ`i«i˜`ʜ˜Ê̅i“°Ê*œœÀiÀÊÜ>ÌiÀʵÕ>ˆÌÞÊ
>˜`ʏiÃÃʅ>LˆÌ>ÌÊvœÀÊ܈`ˆviÊ̅Ài>Ìi˜ÊœÀˆVœ˜Ê>ÀÅʈ˜Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]Ê>ʏ>À}iʈ˜>˜`ÊV>ÌÌ>ˆÊ“>ÀÅÊ
̅>Ìʅ>ÃÊLii˜Ê`iÈ}˜>Ìi`Ê>ʺ}œL>Þʈ“«œÀÌ>˜ÌÊLˆÀ`Ê>Ài>»Ê>˜`ʈÃʅœ“iÊ̜Ê`ÕVŽÃ]ÊVÀ>˜iÃ]Ê
iÀœ˜Ã]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊŜÀiLˆÀ`ðÊ>À}i]Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈ÛiÊVœ>ÃÌ>ÊÜȉ>˜`ÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ->}ˆ˜>ÜÊ>Þ]Ê
ˆV…ˆ}>˜Ê>ÀiʘœÌÊiÝi“«ÌÊvÀœ“ÊÀˆÃŽ]ÊLÕÌÊ̅iÊÓ>iÀ]ʈ܏>Ìi`]ÊÀ>ˆ˜v>‡`i«i˜`i˜Ìʈ˜>˜`Ê
Üȉ>˜`ÃÊ>ÀiÊ«ÀœL>LÞʓœÃÌÊ̅Ài>Ìi˜i`ÊLÞÊ̅iÊ«ÀœiVÌi`ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}ið
Ài`}ˆ˜}Ê>˜`Êwʏˆ˜}ÊvœÀÊ`iÛiœ«“i˜Ì]Ê
Ü>ÌiÀÊ`ˆÛiÀȜ˜]Ê>˜`Ê«œṎœ˜Ê>Ài>`ÞÊ
̅Ài>Ìi˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊÜȉ>˜`ðÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
V…>˜}iÊ܈ÊiÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊ̅iÃiÊ̅Ài>ÌðÊ
ÃʜÛiÀ>ÊÜ>ÌiÀʵÕ>ˆÌÞÊ>˜`ʵÕ>˜ÌˆÌÞÊ
`ˆ“ˆ˜ˆÃ…iÃÊi«…i“iÀ>ÊÜȉ>˜`Ã]Ê̅iÊ
Ài«Àœ`ÕV̈ÛiÊÃÕVViÃÃʜvÊvÀœ}ÃÊ>˜`Ê
“>˜ÞÊÃ>>“>˜`iÀÃÊ܈ÊLiÊ̅Ài>Ìi˜i`°Ê
/…iʏiœ«>À`ÊvÀœ}ʅˆ`ˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê̅ˆÃÊ«…œÌœÊ
“>ÞÊLiʏÕVŽˆiÀÊ̅>˜ÊܓiÆÊ>Ì…œÕ}…Ê
̅iÊÜȉ>˜`Ãʅœ“iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊ`iVˆ˜ˆ˜}Ê
ëiVˆiÃʓ>ÞÊ`ÀÞÊÕ«]Ê̅iʏiœ«>À`ÊvÀœ}Ê
>ÃÊܓiʺL>VŽÕ«»Ê…>LˆÌ>ÌÊ>œ˜}Ê
>ŽiŜÀið
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê
,Þ>˜Ê>}iÀÌÞ]Ê1-ʈÅÊ
EÊ7ˆ`ˆviÊ-iÀۈVi
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʜ…˜Ê°Ê>}˜Õܘ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,ÊÓ£
-œ˜}LˆÀ`ÊiVˆ˜iÃÊÝ«iVÌi`
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÎä
ˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊܘ}LˆÀ`ÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊ
iÛi˜ˆ˜}Ê}ÀœÃLi>Ž]Ê«ˆVÌÕÀi`]Ê>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ
̜Ê`iVˆ˜iʈ˜Ê̅iʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊvœÀiÃÌÃÊ>ÃÊ
̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iðʏ̅œÕ}…ÊܓiÊ
ÀiÈ`i˜ÌÊLˆÀ`ÊëiVˆiÃʓ>ÞÊLi˜iwÊÌÊ
>˜`ʘiÜÊëiVˆiÃʓ>ÞÊi˜ÌiÀÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜]Ê
>ÊәʫiÀVi˜ÌʘiÌʏœÃÃʈ˜ÊvœÀiÃÌÊLˆÀ`Ê
`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʈÃÊ«ÀœiVÌi`°Ê-ÕV…Ê>Ê`iVˆ˜iÊ
>ÃœÊ“i>˜ÃÊ>ʏœÃÃʈ˜ÊiVœœ}ˆV>ÊÃiÀ‡
ۈViÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÃii`Ê`ˆÃ«iÀÃ>Ê>˜`ʈ˜ÃiVÌÊ
Vœ˜ÌÀœ]Ê>˜`Ê>Ê«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÞÊÈ}˜ˆwÊV>˜ÌÊ
œÃÃÊ̜Ê̅iÊiVœ˜œ“ˆiÃʜvʘœÀ̅iÀ˜Ê
ˆV…ˆ}>˜]ʈ˜˜iÜÌ>]Ê>˜`Ê7ˆÃ‡
Vœ˜Ãˆ˜]Ê܅iÀiÊLˆÀ`ÊÜ>ÌV…ˆ˜}ʈÃÊ>Ê
“Տ̈Lˆˆœ˜‡`œ>Àʈ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞ°
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê>ÛiÊi˜Ži]Ê
1-ʈÅÊEÊ7ˆ`ˆviÊ-iÀۈVi
1,ÊÓ£
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʓ«>VÌÃÊ
œ˜Ê7>ÌiÀvœÜÊ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊΣ
7>ÌiÀvœÜÊ>ÀiÊ>ÃœÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜Ê
`iVˆ˜iÊ܈̅Ê>ÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi°Ê
œ˜ÃiÀÛ>̈ÛiÊiÃ̈“>ÌiÃÊ«ÀœiVÌÊ>Ê
£™Ê̜ÊΙʫiÀVi˜ÌÊ`iVˆ˜iʈ˜Ê`ÕVŽÊ
˜Õ“LiÀÃÊLÞÊ̅iÊÓäÎäÃʈ˜ÊÀi뜘ÃiÊ
̜ʏœÃÌÊLÀii`ˆ˜}Ê>˜`ʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊ
>LˆÌ>ÌÃ]Ê>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊ`iVˆ˜iÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ
>µÕ>̈VÊ«>˜ÌÃʜ˜Ê܅ˆV…Ê`ÕVŽÃÊ
vii`°Ê՘̈˜}ʈÃÊ>ÊfΰnÊLˆˆœ˜Ê­1-®Ê
ˆ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞʈ˜ÊˆV…ˆ}>˜]ʈ˜˜iÜÌ>]Ê
>˜`Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]Ê>˜`ʈÃÊ>Ê«œ«Õ>ÀÊ
œÕÌ`œœÀÊ>V̈ۈÌÞÊ̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊ
Ài}ˆœ˜°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê/ˆ“Ê>˜ˆi]Ê"…ˆœÊ
i«>À̓i˜ÌʜvÊ >ÌÕÀ>Ê,iÜÕÀViÃ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
1,ÊÓÎ
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÀœÕ«ˆ˜}ÃʜvÊ
œ““œ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃʈÅÊ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊxÎ
Îx
œ˜}˜œÃiÊ
7…ˆÌiÊ
>À
>ÃÃ
7…ˆÌiÊ Õi}ˆ
*iÀV
>À«
Îä
ÀœÜ˜Ê
Տ…i>`
ÀiÅÜ>ÌiÀÊ
ÀՓ
*ÀiviÀÀi`Ê/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ­Â
®
Óx
7>iÞi
Óä
,>ˆ˜LœÜÊ
/ÀœÕÌ
£x
ÀœÜ˜Ê
/ÀœÕÌ
i܈vi
ä
œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê
*ˆŽi
>ÀÀiÊ
>ÌvˆÃ
9iœÜÊ
Տ…i>`
-“>“œÕ̅Ê
>ÃÃ
*Փ«Žˆ˜Ãii`
7…ˆÌiÊ
-ÕVŽiÀ
,œVŽÊ
>ÃÃ
œœ
œ`i˜Ê
-…ˆ˜iÀ
œ`
ÕÀLœÌ
ˆ˜œœŽÊ
->“œ˜
x
7…ˆÌiÊ
À>««ˆi
œ`vˆÃ
ˆââ>À`Ê
-…>`
7…ˆÌivˆÃ
£ä
>VŽÊ
À>««ˆi
9iœÜÊ
*iÀV
œ…œÊ
->“œ˜
>ŽiÊ
/ÀœÕÌ
->Õ}iÀ
>À«Ê
-ÕVŽiÀ
“iÀ>`Ê
-…ˆ˜iÀ
7>À“
,>ˆ˜LœÜÊ
-“iÌ
>ŽiÊ
iÀÀˆ˜}
œ““œ˜ÊwÊÅÊëiVˆiÃʜvÊ̅iÊ
Ài>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÊV>˜ÊLiÊ}ÀœÕ«i`Ê
̜}i̅iÀÊLÞÊ̅iˆÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ«Àiv‡
iÀi˜ViÃ]ÊV>i`ʺ̅iÀ“>Ê}Ո`ð»Ê˜Ê
̅iÊÃV…i“>̈VʏivÌ]Ê̅iÊVœœÀi`Ê
L>ÀÃʈ`i˜ÌˆvÞÊ̅iʓi`ˆ>˜ÊÛ>ÕiÊ
œvÊ̅iÊ«ÀiviÀÀi`ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊvœÀÊ
̅iÊëiVˆiÃʏˆÃÌi`ʈ˜Êi>V…Ê}Ո`°Ê˜Ê
̅iÊ}À>«…ÊLiœÜ]Ê̅ˆÃÊȓՏ>̈œ˜Ê
vœÀʈ˜˜iÜÌ>ʈ˜>˜`ʏ>ŽiÃʭ܈̅Ê
>Ê
"ÓÊ`œÕLˆ˜}®ÊŜÜÃÊ̅>ÌÊVœ`‡
Ü>ÌiÀÊëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>Ãʏ>ŽiÊ>˜`Ê
LÀœœŽÊÌÀœÕÌʓ>ÞÊ`iVˆ˜iÊ`À>“>‡
̈V>Þʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê
œœ‡Ü>ÌiÀÊ
ëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iʓÕΈiÊ>˜`Ê
Ü>iÞiÊ>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊÜ>À“‡Ü>ÌiÀÊ
ëiVˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊLÕi}ˆÊ>˜`ÊÓ>‡
“œÕ̅ÊL>ÃÃÊ܈ÊۈiÊ̜ÊÌ>ŽiÊ̅iˆÀÊ
«>Vi°Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜Ê
>˜`Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞʜvÊwÊÅÊëiVˆiÃÊ܈Ê
>vviVÌÊ̅iʘi>ÀÞÊ£äʓˆˆœ˜Ê>˜}iÀÃÊ
܅œÊwÊÅÊ̅iÃiÊÜ>ÌiÀðÊ
-œÕÀVi\Ê>Ãi`ʜ˜Êˆ˜vœÀ“>̈œ˜Ê«ÀœÛˆ`i`ÊLÞÊÀˆ>˜Ê-…ÕÌiÀ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʓ>˜`>Ê7>ˆÌÉÊ
œ““Õ˜ˆV>̈œ˜Ã
£ää
1,ÊÓ{
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊxx
-œÕÀVi\Ê>Ì>ÊvÀœ“Ê-Ìiv>˜ÊiÌÊ>°Ê­£™™x®
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌÃ\ʏÕi}ˆÊ­Ü>À“ÊÜ>ÌiÀ®]Ê
œÕ}Ê-Ì>““ÆÊÕΈiÊ­VœœÊÜ>ÌiÀ®]ʜ…˜Ê
°Ê>}˜ÕܘÆÊÀœœŽÊ/ÀœÕÌÊ­Vœ`ÊÜ>ÌiÀ®]Ê
iÀ>`Ê
°ÊÕV…iÀ
œœ‡7>ÌiÀ
ˆÃ…iÃ
Çx
>˜}iʈ˜Ê/…iÀ“>Ê>LˆÌ>ÌÊ­¯®
7>ÌiÀÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ>˜`Ê
ˆÃ…ʈÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜Ê
>˜}iÃ
7>À“‡7>ÌiÀ
ˆÃ…iÃ
xä
ä
‡xä
‡Çx
‡£ää
i>ÀÊ>ŽiÃ
Àii˜Ê>ŽiÃ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
œ`‡7>ÌiÀ
ˆÃ…iÃ
1,ÊÓx
7>ÌiÀÊ
>˜}iÃÊvviVÌÊÞ`Àœ«œÜiÀ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊxÈ
Þ`Àœ«œÜiÀÊ>VVœÕ˜ÌÃÊvœÀÊ>“œÃÌÊÓxÊ«iÀVi˜ÌÊ
œvÊ̅iÊiiVÌÀˆVˆÌÞÊ}i˜iÀ>Ìi`ʈ˜Ê"˜Ì>Àˆœ]Ê>˜`Ê
̅iʜÃiÃÊ ˆ>}>À>Ê*>˜Ìʈ˜Ê iÜÊ9œÀŽÊˆÃÊ>ÃœÊ>Ê
È}˜ˆwÊV>˜ÌÊ}i˜iÀ>̜À°ÊiVÀi>Ãi`ÊÜ>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃÊ
VœÕ`ÊÀi`ÕViÊÀi}ˆœ˜>Ê…Þ`Àœ«œÜiÀÊ}i˜iÀ>̈œ˜Ê
LÞÊ>ÊVœ˜ÃiÀÛ>̈ÛiÊiÃ̈“>ÌiʜvÊ£xÊ«iÀVi˜ÌÊLÞÊ
Óäxä°Ê*ÀœiVÌi`Ê`ÀˆiÀÊÃՓ“iÀÃÊÃÕ}}iÃÌÊ̅>ÌÊ̅iÊ
«ÀiÃÃÕÀiÊ̜ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊÜ>ÌiÀÊiÝÌÀ>V̈œ˜ÊvœÀʈÀÀˆ}>‡
̈œ˜]Ê`Àˆ˜Žˆ˜}]Ê>˜`ʜ̅iÀʅՓ>˜ÊÕÃiÃÊ܈Ê}ÀœÜÊ
܈̅ˆ˜Ê̅iÊL>Ș]Ê>“«ˆvވ˜}Ê̅iÊ>Ài>`ÞÊVœ˜‡
Ìi˜ÌˆœÕÃÊ`iL>ÌiʜÛiÀÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ܈̅`À>Ü>ÃÊ
vÀœ“Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>Žið
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê
œÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ̅iÊ
i˜ÌiÀÊvœÀÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ>˜`Ê
µÕ>̈VÊ-Vˆi˜ViÃ
1,ÊÓÇ
œÀiÃÌÊ*iÃÌÃʈ˜Ê>Ê
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê
ˆ“>Ìi
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊx™
œ`Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ`iÌiÀ“ˆ˜iÊ̅iʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊiÝÌi˜ÌÊ
œvÊܓiÊ`>“>}ˆ˜}ÊvœÀiÃÌÊ«iÃÌðÊÞ«ÃÞʓœÌ…à «ˆVÌÕÀi`Ê
œvÊܓiÊ`>“>}ˆ˜}ÊvœÀiÃÌÊ«iÃÌðÊÞ«ÃÞʓœÌ…ñ
iÀiÊ>Ãʏ>ÀÛ>Êvii`ˆ˜}ʜ˜Ê>˜Ê>ëi˜Êi>vÊ>˜`Ê>ÃÊ>`ՏÌÃ
iÀiÊ>Ãʏ>ÀÛ>Êvii`ˆ˜}ʜ˜Ê>˜Ê>ëi˜Êi>vÊ>˜`Ê>ÃÊ>`ՏÌñ
`ivœˆ>ÌiʓœÀiʅ>À`ܜœ`ÊvœÀiÃÌÃÊ̅>˜Ê>˜Þʜ̅iÀʈ˜ÃiVÌʈ˜Ê
œÀ̅ʓiÀˆV>°ÊÃÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊÜ>À“]Ê̅iÃiʈ˜ÃiVÌÃÊ܈Ê>“œÃÌÊ
ViÀÌ>ˆ˜ÞÊLiVœ“iʓœÀiÊ܈`iÞÊiÃÌ>LˆÃ…i`Ê̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊ
Ài}ˆœ˜°Ê/…iÊv>Ìiʜvʜ̅iÀʈ˜ÃiVÌÃÊ>˜`Ê«>̅œ}i˜ÃʈÃʅ>À`iÀÊ
̜ʫÀi`ˆVÌÊ`ÕiÊ̜ÊVœ“«ˆV>Ìi`ʈ˜ÌiÀ>V̈œ˜ÃÊLiÌÜii˜Ê̅iÊ
ˆ˜ÃiVÌÃ]Ê«>˜ÌÃ]Ê>˜`ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iðÊ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʜ…˜Ê°Ê…i˜Ì]Ê1-ʜÀiÃÌÊ-iÀۈVi]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvʜÀiÃÌÀÞʓ>}iÃ
1,ÊÓÇ
Þ«ÃÞʜ̅Ê>ÀÛ>Êii`ˆ˜}Ê
œ˜Êëi˜Êi>v
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê,ˆVŽÊˆ˜`ÀœÌ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
1,ÊÓÈ
/…iÊ œÀ̅iÀ˜ÊœÀiÃÌÃ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊxÇ
"˜Ì>ÀˆœÊ>˜`Ê̅iʘœÀ̅iÀ˜Ê«>ÀÌÃʜvʈV…ˆ}>˜]ʈ˜˜iÜÌ>]Ê
>˜`Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Ê>ÀiÊÃ̈Ê`œ“ˆ˜>Ìi`ÊLÞÊvœÀiÃÌÃʜvÊëÀÕVi]Ê
i“œVŽ]Ê>˜`ÊwÊÀ°Ê7>À“iÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ܈ÊˆŽiÞÊV>ÕÃiÊ
̅iÊiÝÌi˜ÌʜvÊLœÀi>ÊvœÀiÃÌÃÊ̜ÊÅÀˆ˜ŽÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊvœÀiÃÌÊ
ëiVˆiÃÊ̜ʓœÛiʘœÀ̅Ü>À`Ê՘iÃÃʅˆ˜`iÀi`ÊLÞʏ>ŽiÃ]Ê
՘ÃՈÌ>LiÊ܈Ã]ʜÀÊ`iÛiœ«“i˜Ì°Ê˜VÀi>Ș}Ê>̓œÃ«…iÀˆVÊ
Vœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>̈œ˜ÃʜvÊ
"Ó >˜`ʘˆÌÀœ}i˜Ê>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ÊëÕÀÊ
vœÀiÃÌÊ}ÀœÜ̅ʈ˜Ê̅iÊŜÀÌÊÌiÀ“]ÊLÕÌʈ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê}ÀœÕ˜`‡
iÛiÊœâœ˜iÊ>˜`ʅˆ}…iÀÊÀˆÃŽÊœvÊvœÀiÃÌÊwÊÀiÃÊVœÕ`Ê`ˆ“ˆ˜ˆÃ…Ê
œ˜}‡ÌiÀ“ÊvœÀiÃÌʅi>Ì…Ê>˜`Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞ°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʜ…˜Ê*>Ã̜À
1,ÊÓn
,>˜}iÊ-…ˆvÌÃʜvÊ̅iÊ
>˜>`ˆ>˜Ê
/ˆ}iÀÊ-Ü>œÜÌ>ˆÊ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊx™
˜ÃiVÌÊÀ>˜}iÃʓ>ÞÊňvÌÊ>ÃÊ̅iˆÀʅœÃÌÊÌÀiiÃÊ
“ˆ}À>Ìiʈ˜ÊÀi뜘ÃiÊ̜ÊVˆ“>Ìi°Ê/…iÊÀ>˜}iÊ
œvÊ̅iÊ
>˜>`ˆ>˜Ê̈}iÀÊÃÜ>œÜÌ>ˆ]ÊvœÀÊ
iÝ>“«i]ʈÃʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ÊÀiÌÀ>VÌʘœÀ̅Ü>À`Ê>ÃÊ
œ˜iʜvʈÌÃÊ«ÀiviÀÀi`ʅœÃÌÃ]Ê>ëi˜]Ê`ˆÃ>««i>ÀÃÊ
vÀœ“Ê̅iÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê,ˆVŽÊˆ˜`ÀœÌ
1,Êә
6ˆÀ}ˆ˜ˆ>Ê*œÃÃՓ½ÃÊ
,>˜}iÊÝ«>˜`ˆ˜}Ê œÀÌ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈä
,i`ÕVi`Ê܈˜ÌiÀʓœÀÌ>ˆÌÞʜvʘՈÃ>˜ViÊ
“>““>ÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÀ>VVœœ˜Ã]ÊÎ՘ŽÃ]Ê>˜`Ê
«œÃÃՓÃ]Ê«ˆVÌÕÀi`ʅiÀi]ÊVœÕ`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ
̅iˆÀʜÛiÀ>Ê>L՘`>˜Vi]Ê«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÞÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê«Ài`>̈œ˜Êœ˜Ê}ÀœÕ˜`‡˜iÃ̈˜}Ê
ܘ}LˆÀ`ÃÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊÛՏ˜iÀ>LiÊ«ÀiÞ°Ê
7…ˆÌi‡Ì>ˆi`Ê`iiÀʓˆ}…ÌÊ>ÃœÊLi˜iwÊÌÊvÀœ“Ê
Vˆ“>ÌiÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}]Ê܅ˆiʓœœÃi]Ê>Ài>`ÞÊ
˜i>ÀÊ̅iˆÀÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜Ê}iœ}À>«…ˆVʏˆ“ˆÌ]Ê
VœÕ`ÊLiʅ>À“i`ÊLœÌ…ÊLÞÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}Ê
>˜`ÊLÞÊ}Ài>ÌiÀÊ`i˜ÃˆÌÞʜvÊ`iiÀ°
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê*œˆ˜ÌÊ*iiiÊ >̈œ˜>Ê*>ÀŽ]Ê*>ÀŽÃÊ
>˜>`>
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,ÊÎä
ˆÝi`ʓ«>VÌÃÊvœÀÊ}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈ£
6>ÃÌÊwÊi`ÃʜvÊ܅i>Ì]ÊVœÀ˜]Ê>˜`ÊÜÞLi>˜Ã]Ê`>ˆÀÞÊv>À“Ã]Ê
>˜`ÊvÀՈÌʜÀV…>À`ÃÊ>ÀiÊ>ÃʓÕV…Ê>Ê«>ÀÌʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ
>˜`ÃV>«iÊ>ÃʈÌÃÊvœÀiÃÌÃÊ>˜`ʏ>Žiðʈ}…iÀÊ
"ÓÊVœ˜Vi˜ÌÀ>‡
̈œ˜ÃÊ>˜`Ê>ʏœ˜}iÀÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘʓ>Þʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ>}ÀˆVՏ‡
ÌÕÀ>Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌްʜÜiÛiÀ]Ê̅iÃiÊ«ÀœÃ«iVÌÃÊÃii“ʏiÃÃÊ
v>ۜÀ>LiÊ̅>˜Ê«ÀœiVÌi`ʈ˜Ê«ÀiۈœÕÃÊÃÌÕ`ˆiÃÊ܅i˜Ê`>“>}iÊ
ˆÃÊv>V̜Ài`ʈ˜ÊvÀœ“ÊiÝÌÀi“iÊÜi>̅iÀÊiÛi˜ÌÃ]Ê«iÃÌÃ]Ê>˜`Ê
}ÀœÕ˜`‡iÛiÊœâœ˜i°Ê"ÛiÀ>]ÊÌiV…˜œœ}ˆV>Ê>`Û>˜ViÃÊ>˜`Ê
ÌÀi˜`Ãʈ˜Ê“>ÀŽiÌÃÊ܈Ê“œ`iÀ>ÌiÊ̅iʈ˜yÊÕi˜ViʜvÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ
V…>˜}iʜ˜ÊLœÌ…ÊVÀœ«ÃÊ>˜`ʏˆÛiÃ̜VŽ°ÊÊÜ>À“iÀÊ>˜`ʓœÀiÊ
Û>Àˆ>LiÊVˆ“>Ìi]ʅœÜiÛiÀ]Ê܈ÊˆŽiÞʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ̅iÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVÊ
ÀˆÃŽÃÊvœÀÊÓ>iÀÊv>À“Ã]ÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ̅iʜ˜iÊ«ˆVÌÕÀi`ʅiÀiʈ˜Ê
*i˜˜ÃޏÛ>˜ˆ>]Ê>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊvœÀÊv>À“ˆ˜}ÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiÃp
>ÌiÀˆ˜}Ê̅iÊV…>À>VÌiÀʜvÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊÀÕÀ>Ê>˜`ÃV>«ið
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê1-
1,ÊΣ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iÊ>˜`Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê*iÃÌÃ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈÓ
Àœ«ÊœÃÃiÃÊ>˜`Ê«iÃ̈Vˆ`iÊÕÃiʓ>Þʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ>ÃÊ«iÃÌÃÊ
>˜`Ê`ˆÃi>ÃiÃÊLiVœ“iÊ>ÊLˆ}}iÀÊ«ÀœLi“ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê
Ài>`ÞÊ̅iÊÀ>˜}iʜvÊ̅iÊLi>˜Êi>vÊLiȉi]Ê>ÊÜއ
Li>˜Ê«iÃÌ]ÊÃii“ÃÊ̜ÊLiÊňv̈˜}ʘœÀ̅Ü>À`Ê>ÃÊ܈˜ÌiÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊÀˆÃi°Ê/…iÊÕÀœ«i>˜ÊVœÀ˜ÊLœÀiÀ]Ê«ˆV‡
ÌÕÀi`ʅiÀi]ʓ>ÞÊ>ÃœÊLiʓœÛˆ˜}ÊLiޜ˜`ʈÌÃÊVÕÀÀi˜ÌÊ
˜œÀ̅iÀ˜Êˆ“ˆÌʈ˜ÊœÜiÀÊ7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Ê>˜`Ê«Àœ`ÕVˆ˜}Ê
“Տ̈«iÊ}i˜iÀ>̈œ˜ÃÊ«iÀÊÞi>À°Ê"̅iÀʈ˜ÃiVÌÊ«iÃÌÃÊ
“>ÞÊLiʏˆ“ˆÌi`ÊLÞÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}i°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê
i“Ãœ˜Ê1˜ˆÛiÀÈÌÞq1-Ê
œœ«iÀ>̈ÛiÊÝÌi˜ÃˆÛiÊ
-ˆ`iÊ-iÀˆiÃ]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvʜÀiÃÌÀÞʓ>}iÃ
1,ÊÎÎ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê̅iÊ/ˆ“LiÀÊ
˜`ÕÃÌÀÞ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈx
>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊvœÀiÃÌÊëiVˆiÃÊ>˜`Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊwÊÀiÊ>˜`Ê
ˆ˜ÃiVÌÊÀˆÃŽÃÊÃÕ}}iÃÌÊ>`>«Ì>̈œ˜Ê܈ÊLiʘii`i`ʈ˜Ê̅iÊ
vœÀiÃÌÀÞʈ˜`ÕÃÌÀްʏ̅œÕ}…ʈÌÊVœ˜ÌÀˆLÕÌiÃʏiÃÃÊ̜Ê̅iÊ
Ài}ˆœ˜>ÊiVœ˜œ“ÞÊ̅>˜Ê“>˜Õv>VÌÕÀˆ˜}ʜÀÊ>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi]Ê
vœÀiÃÌÀÞÊÀi“>ˆ˜ÃʏœV>Þʈ“«œÀÌ>˜Ì°Ê/…iÊvœÀiÃÌÊ«Àœ`ÕVÌÃÊ
ˆ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞʈ˜Ê"˜Ì>Àˆœ]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]Êi“«œÞÃʙä]äääÊ
«iœ«iÊ>˜`Ê}i˜iÀ>ÌiÃÊf£xÊLˆˆœ˜Ê­
`˜®Êi>V…ÊÞi>À°Ê
˜Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]Ê̅iʈ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞÊi“«œÞÃÊÇ{]äääÊܜÀŽiÀÃÊ
>˜`Ê}i˜iÀ>ÌiÃʓœÀiÊ̅>˜Êf£nÊLˆˆœ˜Ê­1-®°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê1-ʜÀiÃÌÊ-iÀۈVi]Ê-Õ«iÀˆœÀÊ >̈œ˜>ÊœÀiÃÌ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#OLOR &IGURES
Çx
"LÃiÀÛi`ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃÉÞi>ÀÊ
œ˜Ê܅ˆV…Ê“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
iÝVii`i`Ê̅ÀiŜ`
/ʀʙäcÊÉÊÎÓc
Èä
*ÀœiVÌi`ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃÉÞi>Àʜ˜Ê
܅ˆV…Ê“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ܈Ê
iÝVii`Ê̅ÀiŜ`]ÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê̅iÊ
œÜ‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
ՓLiÀʜvÊ>ÞÃÉ9i>Àʜ˜Ê7…ˆV…Ê
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÝVii`ÃÊ/…ÀiŜ`
{x
Îä
*ÀœiVÌi`ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃÉÞi>Àʜ˜Ê
܅ˆV…Ê“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ܈Ê
iÝVii`Ê̅ÀiŜ`]ÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê̅iÊ
ˆ}…‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
£x
Çx
"LÃiÀÛi`ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃʜ˜Ê܅ˆV…Ê
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊiÝVii`i`Ê
̅ÀiŜ`]Ê£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜
/ʀʙÇcÊÉÊÎÈc
Ê
Èä
*ÀœiVÌi`ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃʜ˜Ê܅ˆV…Ê
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ܈ÊiÝVii`Ê
̅iÊ̅ÀiŜ`]Ê£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]Ê
L>Ãi`ʜ˜ÊœÜ‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
{x
Îä
*ÀœiVÌi`ʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃʜ˜Ê܅ˆV…Ê
“>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ܈ÊiÝVii`Ê
̅iÊ̅ÀiŜ`]Ê£ä‡Þi>ÀÊÀ՘˜ˆ˜}ʓi>˜]Ê
L>Ãi`ʜ˜Ê…ˆ}…‡i“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÃVi˜>Àˆœ
£x
ä
£™ää
£™Óx
£™xä
£™Çx
Óäää
ÓäÓx
Óäxä
x
Ó£ää
9i>À
1,ÊÎÓ
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÝÌÀi“iÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
­ ՓLiÀʜvÊ/…ÀiŜ`ÊÝVii`>˜ViÃÊ«iÀÊ
9i>ÀÊp/…ÀiŜ`Ã\Ê>ˆÞÊ>݈“Õ“Ê
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiʜvʙäcÉÎÓc
Ê>˜`ʙÇcÉÎÈc
®
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈÎ
/…iʘՓLiÀʜvʅœÌÊ`>ÞÃʈÃÊ«ÀœiVÌi`Ê̜ʈ˜VÀi>Ãi]Ê܈̅ÊÞi>ÀÃʏ>ÌiÀʈ˜Ê̅iÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞÊ
iÝ«iÀˆi˜Vˆ˜}Ê{äʜÀʓœÀiÊ`>ÞÃÊiÝVii`ˆ˜}ʙä$Ê­ÎÓ$
®°ÊœÀʅՓ>˜Ê…i>Ì…]Ê>˜ÊiÛi˜Ê
}Ài>ÌiÀÊVœ˜ViÀ˜ÊˆÃÊ̅iÊ«ÀœiVÌi`Ê`À>“>̈Vʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜ÊiÝÌÀi“iʅi>ÌÊ`>ÞðÊ>À`iÃÌʅˆÌÊ
܈ÊLiʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊVˆÌˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>Ãʈ˜˜i>«œˆÃÉ-Ì°Ê*>ՏʜÀÊ/œÀœ˜Ìœ]Ê܅iÀiÊiÝÌÀi“iÞʅˆ}…Ê
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>ÀiʘœÜÊÀ>Ài]Ê>Ì…œÕ}…Ê“œÀiÊÜÕ̅iÀÞÊVˆÌˆiÃÊ>ÀiʘœÌÊiÝi“«Ì°ÊœÀiÊ
̅>˜ÊÇääÊ«iœ«i]ʓœÃ̏ÞÊ«œœÀÊ>˜`Êi`iÀÞ]Ê`ˆi`ʈ˜Ê̅iÊ£™™xÊ
ˆV>}œÊ…i>ÌÊÜ>Ûi°Ê
7>À˜ˆ˜}ÊÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ>˜`ÊiÝÌÀ>Ê«ÕLˆVʅi>Ì…Ê>ÌÌi˜Ìˆœ˜ÊV>˜Ê…i«Ê“ˆÌˆ}>Ìiʅi>ÌÊ`ˆÃ>ÃÌiÀðÊ
-œÕÀVi\Ê>ޅœiÊ>˜`Ê7ÕiLLiÃ
1,ÊÎÓÊ
œ˜ViÀ˜ÃÊLœÕÌʘÃiV̇LœÀ˜iÊ
˜viV̈œÕÃʈÃi>ÃiÃ
1,ÊÎ{
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈ{
/…iʜVVÕÀÀi˜Viʜvʓ>˜Þʈ˜viV̈œÕÃÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÃʈÃÊ
ÃÌÀœ˜}ÞÊÃi>ܘ>]ÊÃÕ}}iÃ̈˜}Ê̅>ÌÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ«>ÞÃÊ
>ÊÀœiʈ˜ÊÌÀ>˜Ã“ˆÃȜ˜°ÊÕÌÕÀiÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊÀ>ˆ˜v>]Ê
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃ]Ê>˜`ʏ>˜`ÊÕÃiÊVœÕ`Êi˜VœÕÀ>}iÊ}Ài>ÌiÀÊ
Ài«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜ÊœÀÊÃÕÀۈÛ>ÊœvÊ`ˆÃi>Ãi‡V>ÀÀވ˜}Ê̈VŽÃʜÀÊ
“œÃµÕˆÌœiðʜÀÊiÝ>“«i]ÊÀi}ˆœ˜>ÊœÕÌLÀi>ŽÃʜvÊ-Ì°Ê
œÕˆÃÊi˜Vi«…>ˆÌˆÃ]ÊÌÀ>˜Ã“ˆÌÌi`ÊLÞʓœÃµÕˆÌœ]ʅ>ÛiÊ
Lii˜Ê>ÃÜVˆ>Ìi`Ê܈̅ÊiÝÌi˜`i`Ê«iÀˆœ`ÃʜvÊÌi“«iÀ‡
>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>LœÛiÊnx$ʭә$
®Ê>˜`ʏˆÌ̏iÊÀ>ˆ˜v>p̅iÊ
ˆŽiÞÊ«>ÌÌiÀ˜ÊœvÊÃՓ“iÀÃʈ˜Ê>ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ÊܜÀ`°
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê1-Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê,iÃi>ÀV…Ê-iÀۈVi
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê-Փ“iÀÊ,iVÀi>̈œ˜
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÈÈ
/…iÊÜ>À“‡Üi>̅iÀÊÀiVÀi>̈œ˜ÊÃi>ܘÊ܈ÊˆŽiÞʏi˜}̅i˜]ʅi«ˆ˜}Ê̜ʜvvÃiÌʏœÃÃiÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊÀiVÀi>̈œ˜°ÊœÜiÀʏ>ŽiʏiÛiÃ]ʅœÜiÛiÀ]Ê܈Ê“i>˜Ê“œÀiÊ>}}À>Û>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê
iÝ«i˜ÃiÊvœÀÊLœ>ÌiÀÃÊ>˜`ʓ>Àˆ˜>ʜ«iÀ>̜ÀÃ]Ê>˜`ÊVœÕ`ʈ“«>VÌÊÃÕV…Ê«œ«Õ>ÀÊÛ>V>‡
̈œ˜Ê`iÃ̈˜>̈œ˜ÃÊ>ÃʜœÀÊ
œÕ˜ÌÞ]Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜]Ê-ii«ˆ˜}Êi>ÀÊ՘iÃ]ʈV…ˆ}>˜]Ê>˜`Ê
*Ì°Ê*iii]Ê"˜Ì>Àˆœ°ÊÊÛ>ÀˆiÌÞʜvÊVˆ“>ÌiÊv>V̜ÀÃÊ܈Êˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ̅iÊÀˆÃŽÊœvÊÜ>ÌiÀÊVœ˜Ì>“‡
ˆ˜>̈œ˜]ÊvœÀVˆ˜}ʓœÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌÊLi>V…ÊVœÃˆ˜}Ãp>ÊÈÌÕ>̈œ˜Ê̅>Ìʅ>ÃÊ>Ài>`ÞÊÀ>ˆÃi`Ê
Vœ˜ViÀ˜ÃÊ>LœÕÌʅՓ>˜Ê…i>Ì…]ʵÕ>ˆÌÞʜvʏˆvi]Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVÊۈ>LˆˆÌÞʜvÊ
ŜÀiˆ˜iÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiðÊ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê,œ`˜iÞÊ°Ê,œÕ܅œÀÃÌ]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvʈV…ˆ}>˜Ê/À>ÛiÊÕÀi>Õ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,ÊÎx
ˆ˜˜iÜÌ>Ê7ˆ˜`Ê>À“
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇä
,i`ÕVˆ˜}ʅi>̇ÌÀ>««ˆ˜}Êi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ܈Ê…i«ÊϜÜÊ
`œÜ˜Ê̅iÊÀ>ÌiÊ>˜`Ê`iVÀi>ÃiÊ̅iÊÃiÛiÀˆÌÞʜvÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ
V…>˜}i]Ê̅ÕÃÊvœÀiÃÌ>ˆ˜}Ê̅iÊܜÀÃÌʜÕÌVœ“iðʘ‡
VÀi>Ș}Êi˜iÀ}ÞÊivwÊVˆi˜VÞÊ>˜`Ê̅iÊ>“œÕ˜ÌʜvÊi˜iÀ}ÞÊ
«Àœ`ÕVi`ÊvÀœ“ÊÀi˜iÜ>LiÊ«œÜiÀÊÜÕÀViÃÊ܈ÊÀi`ÕViÊ
i“ˆÃȜ˜Ã°Êˆ˜˜iÜÌ>ʈÃÊ>Ài>`ÞÊ̅iʘ>̈œ˜½ÃÊ̅ˆÀ`‡Ê
>À}iÃÌÊ܈˜`Ê«œÜiÀÊ«Àœ`ÕViÀ]Ê>˜`ʘiÜÊ܈˜`Ê«ÀœiVÌÃÊ
>ÀiÊ՘`iÀÜ>Þʈ˜Êˆ˜œˆÃ]ʈV…ˆ}>˜]Ê iÜÊ9œÀŽ]Ê>˜`Ê
"˜Ì>Àˆœ°ÊÊ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê7>ÀÀi˜ÊÀiÌâ]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ"É ,
1,ÊÎÈ
ˆ˜œˆÃÊÕiÊ
iÊÕÃ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇ£
˜œÌ…iÀÊÈ}˜ˆwÊV>˜ÌÊÜÕÀViʜvÊ
"ÓÊi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃʈÃÊ̅iÊÌÀ>˜Ã«œÀÌ>̈œ˜Ê
ÃiV̜À°Ê˜VÀi>Ș}Ê>Õ̜ÊvÕiÊivwÊVˆi˜VÞ]ʈ˜ÌÀœ`ÕVˆ˜}ʅÞLÀˆ`Ê>˜`]Ê
iÛi˜ÌÕ>Þ]ÊvÕiÊViÊV>ÀÃ]Ê`iÛiœ«ˆ˜}ʏœÜ‡V>ÀLœ˜ÊvÕiÃ]Ê>˜`ÊÀi`ÕVˆ˜}Ê
̅iʘՓLiÀʜvʓˆiÃÊ`ÀˆÛi˜ÊV>˜Êވi`ÊÈ}˜ˆwÊV>˜ÌÊLi˜iwÊÌðÊ/…iÊ
Þ`Àœ}i˜ÊvÕiÊVi‡«œÜiÀi`ÊLÕÃÊ«ˆVÌÕÀi`ʏivÌÊÜ>ÃÊÌiÃÌi`ÊvœÀÊ
̅ÀiiÊÞi>ÀÃʈ˜Ê>Ê
ˆV>}œÊ`i“œ˜ÃÌÀ>̈œ˜Ê«ÀœiVÌÊ>˜`Êi“ˆÌÃʜ˜ÞÊ
Ü>ÌiÀÊÛ>«œÀ°Ê/…iÊ*iœÀˆ>]ʏˆ˜œˆÃÊLÕÃÊyÊiiÌʈ˜VÕ`iÃÊ>ÊVœÀ˜‡`iÀˆÛi`Ê
i̅>˜œ‡«œÜiÀi`ÊLÕÃ]Êi“ˆÌ̈˜}ÊVœ˜Ãˆ`iÀ>LÞʏiÃÃÊ
"ÓÊ̅>˜Ê
}>܏ˆ˜iʜÀÊ`ˆiÃi°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ÊÀˆVÊ1˜}iÀ]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ̅iʜÞViʜ՘`>̈œ˜
£Ê“ˆˆœ˜Ê̜˜ÃÊ7>ÃÌi‡ˆ˜‡*>ViÊ­7*®ÊrÊ£°£Ê7ʜÀÊÈä]äääʓ“ÌÕÉÞÀ
>˜`ʈÃÊiµÕˆÛ>i˜ÌÊ̜
™]ÈääÊV>ÀÃÊÌ>Ži˜ÊœvvÊ̅iÊÀœ>`ʜÀÊ
£Î]äääÊ>VÀiÃʜvÊvœÀiÃÌÃÊ«>˜Ìi`ʜÀÊ
Ó£äÊÀ>ˆV>ÀÃʜvÊVœ>Ê˜œÌÊÕÃi`ʜÀÊ
£ää]äääÊL>ÀÀiÃʜvʜˆÊ˜œÌÊÕÃi`
1,ÊÎÇ
/œÀœ˜Ìœ½ÃÊ
ºÀii˜»Ê
ˆÌÞÊ>
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇÓ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ʜÃiÊ
->˜ÊÕ>˜]Ê
ˆÌÞʜvÊ/œÀœ˜Ìœ
/œÀœ˜Ìœ]Ê
>˜>`>½Ãʏ>À}iÃÌÊVˆÌÞ]ʈÃÊÌÀՏÞÊ>ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ܏Ṏœ˜Ãʏi>`iÀ°Ê"˜iʜvÊ̅iÊwÊÀÃÌʏœV>Ê}œÛiÀ˜‡
“i˜ÌÃÊܜÀ`܈`iÊ̜ʓ>ŽiÊۜÕ˜Ì>ÀÞÊVÕÌÃʈ˜Ê…i>̇ÌÀ>««ˆ˜}Ê}>ÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ã]Ê̅iÊVˆÌÞÊÀi`ÕVi`ʈÌÃÊ
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊLÞÊÈÇÊ«iÀVi˜ÌʜÛiÀÊiˆ}…ÌÊÞi>ÀÃp̅ÀiiÊ̈“iÃʈÌÃʜÀˆ}ˆ˜>Ê}œ>Êˆ˜Ê…>vÊ̅iÊ̈“i°Ê/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ
ˆ“«ÀœÛi`Ê̅iÊi˜iÀ}ÞÊivwÊVˆi˜VÞʜvÊVˆÌÞÊLՈ`ˆ˜}ÃÊ>˜`ÊÃÌÀiȉˆ}…ÌÃ]ÊÃ܈ÌV…i`Ê̜Ê>ÌiÀ˜>̈ÛiÊvÕiÃÊ
vœÀʈÌÃÊÛi…ˆViÊyÊiiÌ]Ê`iÛiœ«i`ÊVi>˜Ê«œÜiÀÊÜÕÀViÃ]ÊVÀi>Ìi`Ê}>À`i˜Ãʜ˜Ê̜«ÊœvÊ̅iʘiÜÊ
ˆÌÞÊ
>Ê­ivÌ®]Ê>˜`ÊV>«ÌÕÀi`ʏ>˜`wʏÊ}>ÃÊvœÀÊÕÃiʈ˜Ê«œÜiÀÊ«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê­Àˆ}…Ì®°Ê/…iʏ>ÌÌiÀÊ>V…ˆiÛi`Ê
>À}iÊi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜ÃÊ܅ˆiÊ}i˜iÀ>̈˜}ÊfÓ°xʓˆˆœ˜Ê­
`˜®Êˆ˜Ê>˜˜Õ>Êˆ˜Vœ“iÊvœÀÊ̅iÊVˆÌÞ°
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
1,ÊÎÇÊ
>«ÌÕÀˆ˜}Ê
i̅>˜iÊ>ÃÊ
vÀœ“Ê>˜`wʏ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇÓ
-œÕÀVi\Ê1-Ê*Ê­Óä䣮°Ê
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê>ۈ`Ê*>À‡
ܘÃ]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ ,
#OLOR &IGURES
1,ÊÎn
ˆ˜ˆ“ˆâˆ˜}Ê-«À>܏
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇ{
1ÀL>˜Ê>˜`ÊÀÕÀ>Ê>˜`‡ÕÃiÊ«>˜˜ˆ˜}ÊV>˜ÊÀi`ÕViÊëÀ>܏]Ê܅ˆV…Ê
«ÀiÛi˜ÌÃʅ>LˆÌ>ÌÊ`iÃÌÀÕV̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊvÀ>}“i˜Ì>̈œ˜]ÊÀi`ÕViÃʈ“‡
«iÀۈœÕÃÊÃÕÀv>ViÃÊ̅>ÌÊVœ˜ÌÀˆLÕÌiÊ̜Êyʜœ`ˆ˜}]ÊVÕÌÃʓ՘ˆVˆ«>Ê
ëi˜`ˆ˜}ʜ˜ÊÃiÀۈViÃ]ʓœ`iÀ>ÌiÃÊ̅iʏœÃÃʜvÊÛ>Õ>LiÊv>À“‡
>˜`]Ê>˜`ÊÀi`ÕViÃʅi>̇ÌÀ>««ˆ˜}Ê}>ÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊvÀœ“ÊVœ““ÕÌiÀÊ
ÌÀ>vwÊV°ÊÊÃÕVViÃÃvՏÊVˆÛˆVÊV>“«>ˆ}˜Êˆ˜ÊÀ>˜`Ê,>«ˆ`Ã]ʈV…ˆ‡
}>˜]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]ʅ>ÃÊÀiÃՏÌi`ʈ˜ÊVœ“«Ài…i˜ÃˆÛiʏ>˜`‡ÕÃiÊ
«œˆVÞÊÀivœÀ“ðʈ˜ˆ“ˆâˆ˜}ÊëÀ>܏ʈÃʜ˜iÊÃÌÀ>Ìi}ÞÊ̜ʓˆ˜ˆ‡
“ˆâiÊ«ÀiÃÃÕÀiʜ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã]Ê܅ˆV…Ê܈Ê
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ̅iˆÀÊÀiȏˆi˜Viʈ˜Ê̅iÊv>ViʜvÊ>ÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}ÊVˆ“>Ìi°
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ÊÀi}œÀÊiVŽ]Êi`iÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ"˜Ì>ÀˆœÊ >ÌÕÀ>ˆÃÌÃ
1,Ê{ä
>˜>}ˆ˜}Ê̅iÊ>ŽiÊ>˜`Ê-ÌÀi>“Ê“«>VÌÃÊ
œvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇÇ
˜ÌˆVˆ«>̈˜}Ê>˜`Ê«>˜˜ˆ˜}ÊvœÀÊ̅iʈ“«>VÌÃʜvÊV…>˜}iÊ܈Ê…i«ÊÀi`ÕViÊ
vÕÌÕÀiÊ`>“>}iÊ>˜`ÊiÝ«i˜Ãi°ÊÃʏ>ŽiʏiÛiÃÊ`Àœ«]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]ÊVœÃÌÃÊ>˜`Ê
>â>À`ÃÊ̜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊň««ˆ˜}Ê܈Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãi]Ê>˜`Ê«ÀÕ`i˜Ìʓ>˜>}iÀÃʈ˜Ê
̅ˆÃʈ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞÊ܈Ê…>ÛiÊ̜Ê>`>«ÌÊLÞÊ`Ài`}ˆ˜}ʅ>ÀLœÀÃÊ>˜`ÊV…>˜˜iÃʓœÀiÊ
vÀiµÕi˜ÌÞ]Ê>`ÕÃ̈˜}Ê`œVŽÃ]Ê>˜`Ê>ÃÃiÃȘ}ÊV…>˜}iÃÊ̜ÊÜ>ÌiÀʈ˜Ì>ŽiÊ«ˆ«ið
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\ÊiÀÀÞʈiˆVŽˆ]ÊVœÕÀÌiÃÞʜvÊ1-ÊÀ“ÞÊ
œÀ«Ãʜvʘ}ˆ˜iiÀÃÊ
1,ÊΙ
Vœœ}ˆV>Êˆ“ˆÌÃÊ̜Ê`>«Ì>̈œ˜Êˆ˜Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi\ʏˆ˜œˆÃÊ-œˆ
vÀœ“Ê«>}iÊÇÈ
iV>ÕÃiʓœÃÌʅi>̇ÌÀ>««ˆ˜}Ê}>ÃiÃÊÀi“>ˆ˜Êˆ˜Ê̅iÊ>̓œÃ«…iÀiÊvœÀʓ>˜ÞÊ`iV>`iÃ]ÊÜVˆiÌÞÊ
“ÕÃÌÊ«Ài«>ÀiÊ̜ʓ>˜>}iÊvÕÌÕÀiʈ“«>VÌÃÊ̅>ÌÊV>˜˜œÌÊLiÊ>ۜˆ`i`°ÊÕÌÊiÛi˜Ê>`>«Ì>̈œ˜Ê
ˆ˜ÊÀi>̈ÛiÞÊÀˆV…ÊVœÕ˜ÌÀˆiÃʏˆŽiÊ̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>ÌiÃÊ>˜`Ê
>˜>`>Ê܈ÊˆŽiÞÊLiÊVœ˜ÃÌÀ>ˆ˜i`Ê
LÞÊVÀˆÌˆV>ÊiVœœ}ˆV>Êˆ“ˆÌðÊ/…iÊ«…œÌœÊœ˜Ê̅iʏivÌÊŜÜÃÊ>ÊÀՓ“iÀÊ܈]Ê«œœÀÞÊ`À>ˆ˜i`]Ê
`>ÀŽ‡VœœÀi`Ê܈ÊÌÞ«ˆV>ÊœvÊ̅iÊ«À>ˆÀˆiÃʜvʏˆ˜œˆÃ]Ê܅ˆiÊ̅iÊ«…œÌœÊLiœÜÊŜÜÃÊ>Ê>Ž>Î>Ê
܈>ÊÃ>˜`Þ]Ê>Vˆ`ˆV]ÊÀ>«ˆ`ÞÊ«iÀ“i>LiÊ܈ÊÌÞ«ˆV>ÊœvʘœÀ̅iÀ˜ÊˆV…ˆ}>˜°ÊÌ…œÕ}…Ê
œ«Ìˆ“>Ê>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>ÊVˆ“>ÌiÃÊ>ÀiÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊňvÌʘœÀ̅Ü>À`Ê>˜`Êi>ÃÌÜ>À`]ÊViÀÌ>ˆ˜Ê
VÀœ«ÃÊV>˜˜œÌÊLiÊ}ÀœÜ˜ÊVœ“«ï̈ÛiÞʜ˜Ê˜œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê܈Ã]ʜÀÊ̅iˆÀÊވi`Ãʓ>ÞÊLiʏˆ“ˆÌi`Ê
LÞÊ܈ÊµÕ>ˆÌÞ°
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê,œLiÀÌÊ>À“œ`Þ]Ê
1˜ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜvʏˆ˜œˆÃ
ÊÊÊ°
1,ÊΙ
œÀ̅iÀ˜ÊˆV…ˆ}>˜Ê-œˆ
*…œÌœÊ
Ài`ˆÌ\Ê1-]Ê ,
-]Ê,Ê
-œˆÊ-ÕÀÛiÞÊ"vvˆVi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
EPHEMERAL WETLANDS FOR EXAMPLE WILL THREATEN REPRO
DUCTIVE SUCCESS OF CERTAIN SPECIES SUCH AS WOOD FROGS
AND MANY SALAMANDERS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
&IGURE )N TIMES OF DROUGHT WHEN INDIVIDUAL WETLANDS ARE
ISOLATED FROM ONE ANOTHER DEEP WETLANDS SERVE AS A
SAFE HAVEN OR hREFUGIAv FOR PLANTS AND ANIMALS UNTIL
WATER LEVELS ARE RESTORED IN DRIEDOUT WETLANDS ,OSS
OF THESE REFUGIA DURING LONGER OR MORE SEVERE DROUGHTS
WILL THREATEN POPULATIONS OF AMPHIBIANS AND OTHER
LESSMOBILE SPECIES ,ANDSCAPE FRAGMENTATION EXACER
BATES THIS SITUATION LEAVING REFUGIA SCARCER AND MORE
ISOLATED
7ETLAND LOSS AND DEGRADATION ALSO THREATEN TO
DRIVE THE YELLOWHEADED BLACKBIRD LOCALLY EXTINCT IN
THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION 4HIS SONGBIRDS HABITAT IS
RESTRICTED TO A SMALL SUBSET OF MARSHES THAT HAVE SUIT
ABLE VEGETATION IN ANY GIVEN YEAR AS A RESULT OF mUCTU
ATIONS IN WATER LEVEL ,ANDUSE CHANGES HAVE GREATLY
REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF SUITABLE HABITAT AND FURTHER
CHANGES IN WATER LEVELS CAUSED BY INCREASES IN SPRING
RAIN OR SUMMER DRYING COULD RENDER REMAINING
MARSHES UNUSABLE SEE BOX P
&INALLY MOST AQUATIC BIRDS IN THE REGION DEPEND
UPON SEASONAL mOOD PULSES AND GRADUAL DROPS IN
WATER LEVELS #HANGES IN THE TIMING AND SEVERITY OF
THE mOOD PULSE WILL AFFECT THE AVAILABILITY OF SAFE BREED
ING SITES FOR BIRDS AND 1 , Ê Ó Ó
AMPHIBIANS -IDSUMMER iœ«>À`ÊÀœ}ʈ˜Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Ê7ȉ>˜`
hSPIKEv FLOODS FOR EX
AMPLE CAN FLOOD BIRD
NESTS IN SMALL WETLANDS
AND ATTRACT PREDATORS
SUCH AS RACCOONS TO AREAS
WHERE BIRDS AND AMPHI
BIANS BREED #HANGES IN
THE TIMING OF THE SPRING
MELT ALSO GREATLY ALTER
MIGRATORY PATHWAYS AND -iiÊ«>}iÊ{{
TIMING #ANADA GEESE vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
WHICH FORMERLY WINTERED
IN mOCKS OF HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS IN SOUTHERN
)LLINOIS NOW MAINLY WINTER IN 7ISCONSIN AND FURTHER
NORTH IN )LLINOIS 4HE AVAILABILITY OF SEASONAL MUD
mATS FOR MIGRATORY SHOREBIRDS AND ENDANGERED
BEACHNESTING SPECIES SUCH AS THE PIPING PLOVER
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE DRYING OR LOSS OF WETLANDS
ˆÃ…Ê,i뜘ÃiÃÊ̜Ê
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i
4
HE BODY TEMPERATURE OF A lSH IS ESSENTIALLY
EQUAL TO THE TEMPERATURE OF THE WATER IN
WHICH IT LIVES AND EACH SPECIES HAS A CHARAC
TERISTIC PREFERRED TEMPERATURE 2ATES OF FOOD CONSUMP
TION METABOLISM AND GROWTH RISE SLOWLY AS THE PREFER
RED TEMPERATURE IS APPROACHED FROM BELOW AND DROP
RAPIDLY AFTER IT IS EXCEEDED UNTIL REACHING ZERO AT THE
LETHAL TEMPERATURE #OMMON SPECIES OF lSH CAN BE
GROUPED ACCORDING TO THEIR PREFERRED TEMPERATURES
INTO hGUILDSv &IGURE &ISH WILL RESPOND STRONGLY
TO CHANGES IN WATER VOLUME WATER mOW AND WATER
TEMPERATURES EITHER BY SHIFTS IN DISTRIBUTION OR IN
OVERALL PRODUCTIVITY
>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊˆÃ…ʈÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜
)NDIVIDUAL lSH ACTIVELY SELECT AND RAPIDLY CHANGE
LIVING AREAS BASED ON SUITABLE TEMPERATURES OXYGEN
CONCENTRATIONS AND FOOD AVAILABILITY #OLDWATER lSH
ACTIVELY AVOID TEMPERATURES THAT EXCEED THEIR PREFER
RED TEMPERATURE BY TO —& TO —# DEPENDING
ON THE SPECIES AND SEEK OUT REFUGES PROVIDED BY SOURCES
OF COOLER WATER SUCH AS GROUNDWATER OR SEEPAGE AREAS
AND HEADWATER STREAMS 0HYSICAL CONSTRAINTS SUCH
AS DRAINAGE PATTERNS WA
TERFALLS AND LANDLOCKED 1 , Ê Ó Î
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÀœÕ«ˆ˜}ÃÊ
AREAS PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN œvÊ
œ““œ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃʈÃ
DETERMINING THE BOUN
DARIES OF A SPECIES RANGE
AND THE RATE AT WHICH IT
MAY RESPOND TO CHANGING
CONDITIONS &OR EXAMPLE
TEMPERATURE CONSTRAINTS
PREVENTED WHITE PERCH
FROM THE !TLANTIC COAST
FROM INVADING ,AKE /N
TARIO UNTIL THE S
4HEN A SERIES OF WARM
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{È
WINTERS OVER A YEAR vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
PERIOD PERMITTED THIS SPECIES TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
(UDSON 2IVER AND %RIE BARGE CANAL AND INTO ,AKE /NTARIO
BY 4ABLE SUMMARIZES THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF lSH SPECIES
IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
0OPULATIONS LIVING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SPECIES RANGE
OFTEN EXHIBIT GREATER YEARTOYEAR VARIATION IN ABUN
DANCE THAN POPULATIONS LIVING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
RANGE 4HUS WHEN A SOUTHERN BOUNDARY RETRACTS NORTH
WARD POPULATIONS WITH HISTORICALLY STABLE ABUNDANCES
MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE 0OPULATIONS LIVING AT THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RANGE TEND TO EXHIBIT LOWER GROWTH
RATES AND GREATER SENSITIVITY TO EXPLOITATION 4HUS WHEN
A NORTHERN BOUNDARY EXTENDS NORTHWARD POPULATIONS
NEAR THE OLD BOUNDARY MAY BECOME LESS SENSITIVE TO
EXPLOITATION AND EXHIBIT MORE STABLE ABUNDANCE
-ANY STUDIES HAVE FORECAST A POTENTIAL NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF SMALLMOUTH BASS A
TYPICAL WARMWATER SPECIES THAT IS NATIVE TO THE SOUTH
ERN PART OF THE 'REAT ,AKES BASIN 2ECENT WORK
INDICATES THAT THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT EXPANSION
COULD INCLUDE LOCAL EXTIRPATION OF MANY NATIVE MIN
NOWS AND NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON NATIVE TOP PREDATORS
PARTICULARLY LAKE TROUT IN NEWLY INVADED LAKES
4HESE lNDINGS CLEARLY DEMONSTRATE THE ECOLOGICAL
DISRUPTIONS THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS
COLDWATER SPECIES DISAPPEAR AND WARM AND COOLWATER
SPECIES VIE TO TAKE THEIR PLACE IN A WARMER WORLD
4HESE DISRUPTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE COMPOUNDED BY
INVASIONS OF NONNATIVE ORGANISMS MANY OF WHICH ARE
CAPABLE OF TOTALLY RESTRUCTURING EXISTING FOOD CHAINS
AND CAUSING SIGNIlCANT CONSEQUENCES FOR NATIVE lSH
COMMUNITIES 4HE ZEBRA MUSSEL AND %UROPEAN CARP
INVASIONS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION ARE PERHAPS THE
BEST EXAMPLES OF SUCH MAJOR DISRUPTIVE EVENTS #LIMATE
WARMING IS LIKELY TO PERMIT ZEBRA MUSSELS AND COM
MON CARP TO EXPAND THEIR EXISTING RANGES NORTHWARD
IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
!S NOTED EARLIER HIGHER SUMMER SURFACE WATER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SUMMER ANOXIA IN DEEPER
WATERS MAY LEAD TO GREATER RELEASE OF MERCURY FROM
SEDIMENTS 4HAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER MERCURY LEVELS
IN lSH WHICH WOULD HARM NOT ONLY lSH POPULATIONS
BUT HUMAN CONSUMERS AS WELL
/ÊÈÊÊÊ
>˜}iÃÊ"LÃiÀÛi`]Ê*Ài`ˆVÌi`]Ê>˜`Ê*œÃÈLiʈ˜Ê̅iÊ,>˜}iÃÊ
ÊʜvʈÅÊ-«iVˆiÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ>ŽiÃÊ>˜`Ê,ˆÛiÀÃʜvÊ̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ>Ș
ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜>Ê
>˜}iÃ
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê-«iVˆiÃ
ÝÌi˜Ãˆœ˜Ê>ÌÊ
˜œÀ̅iÀ˜Êˆ“ˆÌ
*iÀV…]ÊÓ>“œÕ̅ÊL>ÃÃ\Ê*Ài`ˆVÌi`ÊÎä䇓ˆiÊiÝÌi˜Ãˆœ˜ÊœvÊi݈Ã̈˜}ÊLœÕ˜`>ÀÞÊ
>VÀœÃÃÊ
>˜>`>Ê܈̅ÊÇcʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê“i>˜Ê>˜˜Õ>Ê>ˆÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀi>
-“>“œÕ̅ÊL>ÃÃ]ÊV>À«\Ê*Ài`ˆVÌi`ÊÎä䇓ˆiÊiÝÌi˜Ãˆœ˜ÊœvÊi݈Ã̈˜}ÊLœÕ˜`>ÀÞÊ
ˆ˜Ê"˜Ì>ÀˆœÊ܈̅ʙcʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê“i>˜Ê>˜˜Õ>Ê>ˆÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiL
ˆ˜˜œÜÃÊ­nÊëiVˆiî]ÊÃ՘wÊÅiÃÊ­ÇÊëiVˆiî]ÊÃÕVŽiÀÃÊ­ÎÊëiVˆiî]Ê̜«“ˆ˜˜œÜÃÊ
­ÎÊëiVˆiî\Ê*Ài`ˆVÌi`ÊiÝÌi˜Ãˆœ˜Êˆ˜ÌœÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊL>ȘʫœÃÈLiÊ܈̅ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}V
,iÌÀ>V̈œ˜Ê>ÌÊ
ÜÕ̅iÀ˜Êˆ“ˆÌ
7…ˆÌiwÊÅ]ʘœÀ̅iÀ˜Ê«ˆŽi]ÊÜ>iÞi\Ê*Ài`ˆVÌi`ÊÀiÌÀ>V̈œ˜ÊLiV>ÕÃiʜvʘœÀ̅Ü>À`Ê
ňvÌʈ˜ÊÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>LiÊވi`ÃÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ÊÀiÃՏÌÊvÀœ“ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}i`
>ŽiÊÌÀœÕÌÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊVœ`‡Ü>ÌiÀÊëiVˆiÃ\Ê,iÌÀ>V̈œ˜Ê«Ài`ˆVÌi`ʈ˜ÊÓ>Êňi`ʏ>ŽiÃÊ
>ÌÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜Êˆ“ˆÌÊLiV>ÕÃiʏœÜiÀÊ"ÓʏiÛiÃÊ܈ÊÅÀˆ˜ŽÊ`ii«‡Ü>ÌiÀÊÀivÕ}iÃÊvÀœ“Ê
«Ài`>̈œ˜Êˆ˜ÊÃՓ“iÀi
ÀœœŽÊÌÀœÕÌ\Ê,iÌÀ>V̈œ˜Ê«Ài`ˆVÌi`ÊvœÀÊÃÌÀi>“ÃÊ>ÌʏœÜiÀÊiiÛ>̈œ˜ÃÊ̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ
̅iÊÜÕ̅iÀ˜Êi`}iʜvÊ̅iÊÀ>˜}iÊLiV>ÕÃiʜvÊiÝ«iVÌi`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ü>ÌiÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃv
>ÀÀˆiÀÊÀii>ÃiÊ>˜`Ê
À>˜}iÊiÝ«>˜Ãˆœ˜
7…ˆÌiÊ«iÀV…\Ê"LÃiÀÛi`ʈ˜Û>Ȝ˜Ê>˜`ÊëÀi>`Ê̅ÀœÕ}…ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊL>ȘÊ܅i˜Ê£™{äÃÊ
Ü>À“ˆ˜}ʜvÊÕ`ܘÊ,ˆÛiÀÊ>˜`ÊÀˆiÊL>À}iÊV>˜>ÊÜ>ÌiÀÃÊivviV̈ÛiÞÊÀi“œÛi`Ê̅iÀ“>Ê
L>ÀÀˆiÀÊ>˜`Ê«iÀ“ˆÌÌi`Ê>VViÃÃ}
-ÌÀˆ«i`ÊL>ÃÃ\Ê*Ài`ˆV̈œ˜Ãʈ˜`ˆV>ÌiÊ̅>ÌÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}ʓ>ÞÊ«iÀ“ˆÌÊ̅ˆÃÊëiVˆiÃÊ̜ʈ˜Û>`iÊ
̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊL>ȘÊ>˜`Ê̅ÕÃÊiÝ«>˜`ʈÌÃÊÀ>˜}iÊi>ÃÌÜ>À`
-œÕÀViÃ\Ê-iiʘœÌiÊ£Ó£°
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊˆÃ…Ê*Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞ
7ITHIN A LAKE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF A lSH POPULATION
IS RELATED TO THE AMOUNT OF SUITABLE LIVING SPACE THAT
IS THE VOLUME OF THERMALLY SUITABLE WATER 3TUDIES OF
WALLEYE LAKE TROUT AND WHITElSH HAVE DEMONSTRATED
THAT THE ABUNDANCE AND PRODUCTIVITY OF lSH INCREASE
WITH INCREASED TIME SPENT AT THE OPTIMAL TEMPERATURE
4HERE IS ALSO A TRADEOFF BETWEEN THE POSITIVE EFFECT OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON lSH PRODUCTION AND THE NEGA
TIVE EFFECT OF LOWER LAKE LEVELS DUE TO DRYING &OR
EXAMPLE GIVEN A SCENARIO WHERE ANNUAL AIR TEMPERA
TURE RISES —& —# AND LAKE DEPTH DROPS FEET DATA
FROM .ORTH !MERICAN LAKES SUGGEST THAT lSH PRODUC
TION WILL DECREASE IN LAKES WITH A MEAN DEPTH OF FEET OR LESS AND INCREASE IN LAKES WITH A MEAN DEPTH
GREATER THAN FEET
0RODUCTION OF SEVERAL SPECIES OF SPORT lSH LAKE
TROUT WALLEYE AND PIKE AND COMMERCIALLY HARVESTED
lSH WHITElSH IN THE REGION CURRENTLY VARIES WITH THE
AMOUNT OF THERMALLY SUITABLE HABITAT &IGURE 0REDICTIONS ARE THAT CLIMATE WARMING WILL GREATLY
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF THERMALLY SUITABLE HABITAT FOR
LAKE TROUT IN MANY INLAND LAKES 4HIS WOULD EFFEC
TIVELY ELIMINATE LAKE TROUT FROM ALMOST ALL SHALLOW
LAKES IN THE REGION BECAUSE OF hSUMMERKILLv A LETHAL
COMBINATION OF HIGH SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASED OXYGEN IN BOTTOM WATERS 4HIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER WORK THAT PREDICTED COLDWATER
lSH LIVING IN LARGE COLD 1 , Ê Ó {
LAKES WILL BE THE MOST 7>ÌiÀÊ/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
SECURE AGAINST THE NEGA >˜`ʈÅʈÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜Ê
>˜}iÃ
TIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
)N CONTRAST OTHER STU
DIES PREDICT LESS WINTERKILL
OF WARM AND COOLWATER
FISH LIVING IN SHALLOW
INLAND LAKES BECAUSE
SHORTER PERIODS OF ICE
COVER WOULD ELIMINATE
WINTER OXYGEN DElCITS
-OST NORTHERN LAKES ARE
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{È
LIKELY TO DEVELOP MORE vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
SUITABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
WALLEYE A TYPICAL COOLWATER SPECIES IN /NTARIO
(OWEVER A FEW SOUTHERN LAKES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
LESS SUITABLE WITH SUMMER TEMPERATURES REACHING
LEVELS TOO WARM FOR OPTIMAL GROWTH
Vœ˜œ“ˆVÊ
œ˜ÃiµÕi˜ViÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜`ÊVœœ}ˆV>Ê
>˜}iʈ˜ÊµÕ>̈VÊ-ÞÃÌi“Ã
7>ÌiÀÊiÛiÃ]Ê-…ˆ««ˆ˜}]Ê
>˜`ÊÞ`Àœ«œÜiÀÊi˜iÀ>̈œ˜
ECREASES IN WATER LEVELS HAVE BROAD IMPLICA
TIONS FOR BOTH ECOLOGICAL AND HUMAN SYSTEMS
IN AND AROUND THE LARGE LAKES 3HIP CLEAR
ANCE IN CHANNELS AND HARBORS IS REDUCED REQUIRING
SHIPS TO CARRY LESS WEIGHT IN ORDER TO RIDE HIGHER IN
THE WATER 4HE 'REAT ,AKES #ARRIERS !SSOCIATION ESTI
MATES THAT WITH A ONEINCH DROP IN LAKE LEVEL A FOOT SHIP LOSES TONS OF CARGO CAPACITY !N EARLIER
ASSESSMENT BASED ON MILDER PROJECTIONS OF WARMING
FOUND THAT SHIPPING COSTS COULD INCREASE BY TO PERCENT AS A RESULT OF LOWER LAKE LEVELS ! POTENTIAL
COUNTER TO THIS NEGATIVE IMPACT IS THAT REDUCED ICE COVER
WILL LENGTHEN THE SHIPPING SEASON ON THE 'REAT ,AKES
3TEPPEDUP DREDGING OF CHANNELS AND HARBORS
IS OFTEN USED TO INCREASE SHIP CLEARANCE IN TIMES OF
LOW WATER INCURRING BOTH DIRECT ECONOMIC COSTS AND
$
ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS 4HE DIRECT COSTS OF DREDGING
COULD EXCEED MILLION 53 ANNUALLY "UT
DREDGING OFTEN STIRS UP BURIED POLLUTANTS WHICH MAY
IMPOSE ADDITIONAL COSTS ON SOCIETY 4HE ESTIMATED
COSTS FOR A FOUR TO EIGHTFOOT DROP IN WATER LEVEL
RANGE FROM MILLION TO MILLION 53 AND
THE PRICE FOR EXTENDING WATER SUPPLY PIPES DOCKS
AND STORMWATER OUTFALLS TO THE NEW WATERLINE WOULD
ADD ANOTHER MILLION TO MILLION 53
$ECREASED WATER LEVELS COULD REDUCE HYDROPOWER
GENERATION BY AS MUCH AS PERCENT BY AN ES
TIMATE THAT IS LIKELY TO BE CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE IT WAS
BASED ON OLDER CLIMATE MODELS (YDROPOWER ACCOUNTS
FOR ALMOST PERCENT OF THE ELECTRICITY GENERATED IN
/NTARIO WHILE IN THE 5NITED 3TATES SIGNIlCANT
HYDROPOWER IS GENERATED AT THE -OSES .IAGARA 0LANT
IN .EW 9ORK 3TATE &IGURE $EMAND FOR MORE
HYDROPOWER WILL BE CREATED IN THE FUTURE BY THE NEED
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
!QUATIC %COSYSTEMS
/ÊÇÊÊÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊˆÃ…ÊVœœ}ÞÊ>˜`Ê
œ˜ÃiµÕi˜ViÃÊvœÀʈÅiÀˆiÃ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊˆÃ…ÊVœœ}ÞÊ
œ˜ÃiµÕi˜ViÃÊvœÀʈÅiÀˆiÃ
>˜}iʈ˜ÊœÛiÀ>ÊwÊÅʫÀœ`ÕV̈œ˜Êˆ˜Ê>Ê«>À̈VՏ>ÀÊ
>µÕ>̈VÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“Ê
>˜}iʈ˜ÊÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>Liʅ>ÀÛiÃÌÃÊvœÀÊ>ÊwÊÅʫœ«Õ>̈œ˜ÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“
>˜}iʈ˜ÊÀi>̈ÛiÊ«Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞʜvʈ˜`ˆÛˆ`Õ>ÊwÊÅÊ
«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ãʈ˜Ê>Ê«>À̈VՏ>ÀÊ>µÕ>̈VÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“
>˜}iʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>̈ÛiʏiÛiÃʜvÊiÝ«œˆÌ>̈œ˜Ê̅>ÌÊV>˜Ê
LiÊÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>LÞÊ`ˆÀiVÌi`Ê>}>ˆ˜ÃÌÊ̅iÊwÊÅʫœ«Õ>̈œ˜ÃÊ
œvÊ̅iÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“Ê
>À}i‡ÃV>iÊňvÌÃʈ˜Ê}iœ}À>«…ˆVÊ`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜Ê
œvÊëiVˆiÃ
>˜}iʈ˜Ê“ˆÝÌÕÀiʜvÊëiVˆiÃÊ̅>ÌÊV>˜ÊLiÊÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>LÞÊ
>ÀÛiÃÌi`Ê܈̅ˆ˜Ê>ÊëiVˆwÊVÊ}iœ}À>«…ˆVÊ>Ài>
>˜}iʈ˜ÊœV>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ«ÀœwÊÌ>LiÊwÊň˜}Ê}ÀœÕ˜`Ã
-“>‡ÃV>iÊňvÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊë>̈>Ê`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜Ê
œvʓi“LiÀÃʜvÊ>ÊëiVˆwÊVÊ«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê
TO REDUCE #/ EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELlRED POWER
PLANTS !S HYDROPOWER OPPORTUNITIES DECLINE IN THE
'REAT ,AKES REGION PRESSURE MAY INCREASE TO BUILD
SUCH PROJECTS ELSEWHERE SUCH AS IN THE *AMES "AY
REGION
7ATER WITHDRAWALS FROM THE 'REAT ,AKES ARE
1,ÊÓx
ALREADY SUBJECT TO CONTEN
7>ÌiÀÊ
>˜}iÃÊvviVÌÊÞ`Àœ«œÜiÀ
TIOUS DEBATE AND POLITICAL
LEADERS IN THE REGION HAVE
OPPOSED FURTHER WITHDRAW
ALS ESPECIALLY FOR WATER TO
BE SHIPPED OUT OF THE BASIN
'IVEN PROJECTIONS FOR DRIER
SUMMERS IN THE REGION
PRESSURE TO INCREASE WATER
EXTRACTION FOR IRRIGATION
DRINKING AND OTHER USES
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{Ç
WILL GROW EVEN WITHIN THE
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
BASIN /NE STUDY FOUND THAT
THE SYNERGISTIC EFFECTS OF PREDICTED DECREASES IN RUNOFF
AND INCREASES IN IRRIGATION COULD BE DEVASTATING TO
THE REGIONS STREAMS
ˆÃ…iÀˆiÃ
#LIMATEDRIVEN CHANGES IN lSH POPULATIONS AND COM
MUNITIES WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF IMPACTS ON EXISTING
lSHERIES 4ABLE -OST OF THESE IMPACTS WILL STEM
FROM TWO MECHANISMS THE SUSTAINABLE HARVEST
OF lSH WILL RISE AND FALL WITH SHIFTS IN OVERALL AQUATIC
PRODUCTIVITY AND SUSTAINABLE HARVESTS FROM A
>˜}iʈ˜ÊÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>Liʅ>ÀÛiÃÌÊvœÀÊ̅iÊ«œ«Õ>̈œ˜
>˜}iʈ˜ÊivwÊVˆi˜VÞʜvÊwÊň˜}Ê}i>À]ʏi>`ˆ˜}Ê̜ÊV…>˜}iÊ
ˆ˜ÊÃÕÃÌ>ˆ˜>LiʏiÛiÃʜvÊwÊň˜}ÊivvœÀÌ
SPECIlC POPULATION IN A SPECIlC LOCATION MAY INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OR FALL TO ZERO DEPENDING ON HOW NEW
CLIMATE CONDITIONS AND SPECIESSPECIlC TEMPERATURE
NEEDS INTERACT
4HE COMMERCIAL lSHING SECTOR IN THE REGION IS RELA
TIVELY SMALL ,ANDED CATCHES IN THE LATE S WERE
VALUED AT ABOUT MILLION 53 INCLUDING MIL
LION TAKEN BY #ANADIAN lSHERS AND MILLION TAKEN
BY 53 lSHERS -OST OF THE COMMERCIAL CATCH IN #ANADA
COMES FROM ,AKE %RIE AND THAT IN THE 5NITED 3TATES
FROM ,AKE -ICHIGAN
)N CONTRAST THE RECREATIONAL lSHING SECTOR IS QUITE
LARGE IN BOTH COUNTRIES )N THE S MILLION
RECREATIONAL ANGLERS SPENT BILLION 53 ON lSHING
IN 53 WATERS AND MILLION ANGLERS SPENT BILLION
#DN ON lSHING IN #ANADIAN WATERS 4HESE ANGLERS
SPENT ABOUT MILLION lSHING DAYS ON THE 'REAT ,AKES
ALONE NOT COUNTING lSHING ON INLAND LAKES RIVERS
AND STREAMS ,ARGE CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION AND
PRODUCTIVITY OF lSH SPECIES IN THE REGION WILL SIGNIl
CANTLY IMPACT THE NEARLY MILLION ANGLERS THAT
ACTIVELY lSH THESE WATERS
4HESE DOLLAR lGURES DO NOT REmECT THE FULL VALUE OF
CEREMONIAL AND ARTISANAL lSHERIES PRACTICED BY .ATIVE
!MERICANS AND &IRST .ATIONS IN MANY SETTLEMENTS SCAT
TERED THROUGHOUT THE 'REAT ,AKES BASIN &ISHING PLAYS
AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE TRADITIONAL SOCIAL STRUCTURES
OF THESE COMMUNITIES A ROLE THAT DElES EASY QUANTI
lCATION AND WILL NOT BE REmECTED IN COST ACCOUNTINGS
OF IMPACTS THAT ARE BASED PURELY ON MARKET MEASURES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#(!04%2
&OUR
%COLOGICAL 6ULNERABILITY TO #LIMATE
#HANGE 4ERRESTRIAL %COSYSTEMS
œÀiÃÌi`Ê>˜`ÃV>«iÃ
4
HE DISTRIBUTION OF FOREST TYPES IN THE 'REAT
,AKES REGION IS CONTROLLED BY A PATTERN OF IN
CREASING RAINFALL AS ONE MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST AND COLDER TEMPERATURE AS ONE MOVES SOUTH TO
NORTH 4HESE CLIMATIC GRADIENTS GAVE RISE TO FORESTS
DOMINATED BY OAKS AND HICKORIES IN THE SOUTHERN 'REAT
,AKES REGION NORTHERN HARDWOOD FORESTS COMPOSED
OF SUGAR MAPLE !MERICAN BEECH AND !MERICAN BASS
WOOD FARTHER NORTH AND BOREAL FORESTS DOMINATED
BY WHITE SPRUCE AND BALSAM lR IN THE NORTHERNMOST
PORTION OF THE REGION &IGURE )N THE DRIER WESTERN
PART OF THE REGION CLOSED CANOPY FORESTS GIVE WAY TO
SCATTERED SAVANNAS CONSISTING OF BUR OAK AND MIXED
PRAIRIE GRASSES
(UMAN LANDUSE DECISIONS HAVE RESHAPED MUCH OF
WHAT CLIMATE SOILS AND GEOLOGY WROUGHT /N DROUGHT
PRONE SOILS FREQUENT WILDlRES ONCE MAINTAINED CONIF
EROUS FORESTS COMPOSED OF WHITE AND RED PINE IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION 4HESE WERE LARGELY
ELIMINATED BY INTENSIVE TIMBER HARVESTS DURING THE
LATE S )N THE SOUTHERN 'REAT ,AKES REGION LARGE
AREAS OF FERTILE SOILS ONCE IN FOREST COVER HAVE BEEN IN
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FOR ALMOST YEARS -AJOR
AREAS STILL DOMINATED BY FORESTS LIE MOSTLY IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF -ICHIGAN -INNESOTA AND 7ISCON
SIN AND IN /NTARIO WHERE CLIMATIC AND SOIL CONDITIONS
ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR AGRICULTURE &ORESTS CURRENTLY
OCCUPY PERCENT OF THE TOTAL LAND AREA IN THE 53
'REAT ,AKES STATES AND PERCENT OF THE LAND AREA
IN /NTARIO
ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜Ê>˜`Ê*Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞ
4REE SPECIES HAVE BEEN MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE SINCE THE END OF THE LAST
ICE AGE SOME YEARS AGO 4HE PACE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT CENTURY HOWEVER
AND THE ABILITY OF FOREST TREES TO MIGRATE IN RESPONSE
WILL DEPEND NOT ONLY ON THEIR OWN TRAITS SUCH AS
WHETHER THEIR SEEDS ARE DISPERSED ON THE WIND OR BY
ANIMALS AND NATURAL GEOGRAPHIC BARRIERS SUCH AS THE
'REAT ,AKES BUT ALSO ON HUMAN LANDUSE DECISIONS
'EOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN
1,ÊÓÈ
SOIL MOISTURE AND TEXTURE /…iÊ œÀ̅iÀ˜ÊœÀiÃÌÃ
WILL ALSO PUT STRONG CON
STRAINTS ON THE MOVEMENT
OF PLANT SPECIES AND THE
COMPOSITION OF FUTURE
FORESTS IN ANY GIVEN LOCA
TION
7ARMER TEMPERA
TURES AND A LONGER GROW
ING SEASON ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD -iiÊ«>}iÊ{n
MOVEMENT OF MANY FOREST vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
4E R R E S T R I A L % C O S Y S T E M S
SPECIES AND A GENERAL DECLINE IN THE EXTENT OF BOREAL
NUTRIENTPOOR SOIL %LEVATED #/ COULD ALSO ACCEL
FORESTS IN THE REGION .ORTHERN CONIFERS SUCH AS
ERATE THE PACE OF FOREST SUCCESSION SPEEDING UP THE
WHITE PINE AND HEMLOCK ARE LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED TO
RATE AT WHICH hPIONEER SPECIESv SUCH AS ASPEN WHICH
ISOLATED POPULATIONS OR LOST COMPLETELY FROM SOUTHERN
COLONIZE SITES FOLLOWING DISTURBANCES SUCH AS TIMBER
)LLINOIS )NDIANA AND /HIO 4REE AND PRAIRIE GRASS
HARVESTING OR lRE GIVE WAY TO SPECIES SUCH AS MAPLE
SPECIES IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE REGION ARE LIKELY
THAT ESTABLISH IN THE SHADE OF THE PIONEERING TREES
TO MOVE EASTWARD ESPECIALLY IF WARMER TEMPERATURES
-APLE TREES GROWN UNDER ELEVATED #/ BECOME MORE
RESULT IN MORE FREQUENT DRYING OUT OF SOILS OR EVEN
TOLERANT OF SHADE AND INCREASE THEIR GROWTH RATE &ASTER
DROUGHTS IN THEIR CURRENT RANGE
FOREST DEVELOPMENT COULD SHORTEN THE HARVEST ROTATION
0RIOR TO WIDESPREAD lRESUPPRESSION EFFORTS DUR
FOR ASPEN MANAGED FOR lBER PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHERN
ING THE TWENTIETH CENTURY lRE WAS AN IMPORTANT AGENT
PARTS OF THE REGION
SHAPING THE COMPOSITION AND DISTRIBUTION OF FORESTS
!NOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD BOOST FOREST GROWTH AND
IN THE REGION &IRES SWEPT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PRODUCTIVITY IS THE AVAILABILITY OF NITROGEN A KEY PLANT
FORESTS EVERY TO YEARS MAINTAINING NEARLY NUTRIENT (UMAN ACTIVITIES INCLUDING THE FOSSIL FUEL
PERCENT OF THE LAND AREA AS YOUNG RECENTLY BURNED
BURNING THAT IS HELPING TO DRIVE CLIMATE CHANGE HAVE
FOREST STANDS 3URFACE lRES THAT CONSUMED DEAD LEAVES
ALMOST DOUBLED THE AMOUNT OF NITROGEN ENTERING FORESTS
AND TWIGS LYING ON THE GROUND WERE COMMON IN
VIA RAIN SNOW AND DRY AIRBORNE PARTICLES -UCH OF
HARDWOOD FORESTS GROWING ON MOIST SOILS WHEREAS
THE EXCESS NITROGEN FALLING ON FORESTS IS DEPOSITED AS
SEVERE CANOPYCONSUMING lRE OFTEN
NITRATE WHICH IS RAPIDLY TAKEN UP BY
DESTROYED RED AND JACK PINE FOREST ON
SOIL MICROORGANISMS AND EVENTUALLY
œÀiÃÌÊ}ÀœÜ̅ÊVœÕ`Ê
DRY SANDY SOIL &IRE HISTORY STUDIES
MADE AVAILABLE TO FERTILIZE PLANT
HAVE SHOWN THAT OVER THE PAST GROWTH )N THIS WAY FORESTS FUNC
«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÞÊ}iÌÊ>Ê
YEARS lRE WAS MORE FREQUENT DURING
TION AS hLIVING lLTERSv PREVENTING
LœœÃÌÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊÀˆÃiÊ
PERIODS OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND
NITRATE FROM LEACHING INTO GROUND
LOW PRECIPITATION WHICH SUGGESTS
ˆ˜Ê>̓œÃ«…iÀˆVÊ
"Ó° WATER STREAMS AND LAKES WHERE IT
FOREST lRE FREQUENCY IS LIKELY TO IN
BECOMES A POLLUTANT 4HIS lLTERING
CREASE AS THE CLIMATE TURNS WARMER AND
CAPACITY MAY BE EXCEEDED IN THE LONG
SUMMERS BECOME DRIER )N FACT AS A RESULT OF THE
TERM BUT IN THE SHORT TERM EXTRA NITROGEN FROM THE
PROJECTED HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER SUMMER
ATMOSPHERE COULD ENHANCE THE ABILITY OF FOREST TREES
PRECIPITATION MODELS SUGGEST DECREASED SOIL MOISTURE
TO GROW FASTER IN RESPONSE TO RISING ATMOSPHERIC #/
DURING SUMMER AND AUTUMN
WHICH WOULD NOT ONLY
/ZONE HOWEVER MAY COUNTER THE GROWTHENHANC
INCREASE THE lRE RISK BUT ALSO LIMIT FOREST GROWTH IN
ING POTENTIAL OF BOTH #/ AND NITROGEN 'ROUNDLEVEL
DRIER AREAS FOR MORE WEEKS PER SUMMER )N WETTER
CONCENTRATIONS OF OZONE ARE INCREASING ESPECIALLY
AREAS FOREST GROWTH IS RARELY WATER LIMITED 4HE
DOWNWIND OF MAJOR URBAN AREAS IN THE REGION %LEV
RESPONSE TO CHANGING SOIL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INTERACT
ATED OZONE CONCENTRATIONS CAN DAMAGE TREE LEAVES
WITH CHANGES IN lRE FREQUENCY SINCE FORESTS IN DRIER
DAMPING GROWTH AND RENDERING TREES MORE VULNERABLE
AREAS ARE MORE lREPRONE
TO INSECT PESTS AND DISEASES 3USCEPTIBILITY TO OZONE
&OREST GROWTH COULD POTENTIALLY GET A BOOST FROM
DAMAGE VARIES AMONG TREE SPECIES AND ALSO AMONG
THE RISE IN ATMOSPHERIC #/ THAT IS HELPING TO DRIVE
DIFFERENT INDIVIDUALS WITHIN A SPECIES %XPERIMENTS
CLIMATE CHANGE #/ ACTS AS A PLANT FERTILIZER AND
THAT EXPOSED YOUNG ASPEN PAPER BIRCH AND SUGAR
NATIVE TREES GROWN EXPERIMENTALLY IN ELEVATED #/
MAPLE TO BOTH #/ AND OZONE INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY
HAVE SHOWN INCREASED GROWTH 4REMBLING ASPEN AN
SMALL INCREASES IN OZONE CAN ELIMINATE THE GROWTH
ECOLOGICALLY AND ECONOMICALLY IMPORTANT TREE IN THE
ENHANCING EFFECTS OF ELEVATED #/
REGION COULD INCREASE ITS GROWTH TO PERCENT AS
.O ONE CAN YET PREDICT EXACTLY HOW CHANGES IN
#/ LEVELS RISE !SPEN FORESTS ON FERTILE SOIL WILL EXPERI
TEMPERATURE MOISTURE lRE #/ NITROGEN AND OZONE
ENCE GREATER GROWTH ENHANCEMENT THAN THOSE ON
WILL INTERACT OVER THE COMING DECADES TO ALTER THE
&OR ADDITIONAL CLIMATE MODELING RESULTS AND OTHER TECHNICAL INFORMATION SEE WWWUCSUSAORGGREATLAKES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION OF FORESTS 4HE UNCERTAINTY
STEMS IN PART FROM THE CENTURIESLONG LIFESPAN OF FOREST
TREES %VEN MULTIYEAR EXPERIMENTS SUBJECTING SAPLINGS
TO ENHANCED LEVELS OF #/ CANNOT DETERMINE FOR
EXAMPLE WHETHER THE FASTER GROWTH MEANS TREES WILL
ACTUALLY GROW LARGER OR WILL SIMPLY REACH THE SAME SIZE
FASTER THAN TREES GROWING AT CURRENT #/ LEVELS !ND
NO STUDIES HAVE ATTEMPTED TO LOOK AT ALL THE INTERACT
ING HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS THAT WILL SHAPE
THE FATE OF FUTURE FORESTS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
“«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊœÀiÃÌʘÃiVÌÃ
)NSECTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SHIFT BOTH THE MAGNITUDE
AND DIRECTION OF PLANT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
4HROUGH THEIR ROLES AS HERBIVORES POLLINATORS AND
DECOMPOSERS INSECTS INmUENCE PRIMARY PRODUCTION
COMMUNITY COMPOSITION NUTRIENT CYCLING AND SUC
CESSIONAL PROCESSES IN THE FORESTS 4HE FATE OF ANY PAR
TICULAR INSECT SPECIES IN A CHANGED CLIMATE IS DIFlCULT
TO PREDICT YET SOME GENERAL TRENDS CAN BE FORESEEN
4HE NORTHERN LIMIT OF SOME DEVASTATING FOREST
PESTS SUCH AS THE GYPSY MOTH IS CURRENTLY DETERMINED
BY COLD WINTER TEMPERATURES AND THESE INSECTS WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME MORE WIDELY ESTABLISHED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION IN A WARMER CLIMATE &IGURE
)NSECT RANGES MAY ALSO SHIFT AS THEIR HOST TREES
MIGRATE IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE &OR EXAMPLE THE RANGE
OF THE EASTERN TIGER SWALLOWTAIL IS LIKELY TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD COINCIDENT WITH EXPANSION OF THE RANGE OF ITS
PREFERRED HOST THE TULIP TREE 3IMULTANEOUSLY THE RANGE
OF THE #ANADIAN TIGER SWALLOWTAIL WILL RETRACT NORTHWARD
AS ITS PREFERRED HOST ASPEN DISAPPEARS FROM THE SOUTHERN
'REAT ,AKES REGION &IGURE #LIMATIC CHANGES THAT ALTER THE SYNCHRONY BETWEEN
KEY INSECTS DESIRABLE AND UNDESIRABLE AND THEIR HOST
PLANTS COULD MARKEDLY AFFECT FOREST ECOSYSTEMS 3EVERAL
OF THE MOST DAMAGING PESTS IN THE REGION SUCH AS THE
FOREST TENT CATERPILLAR GYPSY MOTH AND SPRUCE BUD
WORM ARE SPRINGFEEDING INSECTS WHOSE EMERGENCE IS
CLOSELY SYNCHRONIZED WITH THE BUDBREAK OF THEIR HOSTS
!LTHOUGH BOTH INSECT EMERGENCE AND BUDBREAK ARE
CONTROLLED BY TEMPERATURE IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
CLIMATE WARMING WILL ALTER BOTH PROCESSES AT THE SAME
RATE !SYNCHRONY BY AS LITTLE AS A WEEK COULD MARKEDLY
ALTER INSECT lTNESS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OUTBREAKS
4HE ACTIVITY OF INSECT PREDATORS AND PARASITOIDS THAT
PREY ON INSECT PESTS IS ALSO CONTROLLED BY TEMPERATURE
AND HOW WARMER CLIMATES WILL ALTER THEIR EFFECTIVENESS
AS NATURAL ENEMIES IS VIRTUALLY UNKNOWN 0OLLINATION
SERVICES ARE ANOTHER CRITICAL INSECTPLANT INTERACTION
THAT COULD BE DISRUPTED IF CLIMATE CHANGE DECOUPLES
THE TIMING OF mOWERING AND POLLINATOR ACTIVITY
)N ADDITION TO CLIMATE CHANGES BOTH ELEVATED
ATMOSPHERIC #/ AND
1,ÊÓÇ
ELEVATED OZONE ARE LIKE œÀiÃÌÊ*iÃÌÃʈ˜Ê>Ê
>˜}ˆ˜}Ê
ˆ“>Ìi
LY TO AFFECT INSECTS VIA
CHANGES IN HOST QUALITY
4HE LEAVES OF PLANTS
GROWN UNDER ENRICHED
#/ TYPICALLY ARE RE
DUCED IN FOOD VALUE THAT
IS LOWER IN PROTEIN AND
HIGHER IN UNPALATABLE
COMPOUNDS SUCH AS TAN
NINS ,EAFCHEWING -iiÊ«>}iÊ{Ç
INSECTS FED THIS MATERIAL vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
GENERALLY EAT MORE TO
COMPENSATE FOR LOW PRO 1 , Ê Ó n
,>˜}iÊ-…ˆvÌÃʜvÊ̅iÊ
TEIN LEVELS 4HEY ALSO >˜>`ˆ>˜Ê/ˆ}iÀÊ-Ü>œÜÌ>ˆ
EXPERIENCE SLOWER DEVEL
OPMENT AND REDUCED
GROWTH EFFICIENCY 7HETHER THIS PHENOM
ENON WILL RESULT IN GREATER
DEFOLIATION OF FORESTS IS
UNKNOWN BECAUSE AL
THOUGH INDIVIDUAL INSECTS
MAY EAT MORE OVERALL
INSECT POPULATION DENSI
TIES MIGHT DECLINE %LEV -iiÊ«>}iÊ{n
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
ATED OZONE CONCENTRA
TIONS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAN ALSO CHANGE PLANT
CHEMISTRY )N TREMBLING ASPEN OZONE EXPOSURE COM
PROMISES PRODUCTION OF THE MAJOR CHEMICAL DEFENSE
COMPOUNDS LEADING TO IMPROVED PERFORMANCE BY
FOREST TENT CATERPILLARS
$ESPITE NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES IT IS CLEAR THAT
COMING CHANGES WILL NOT AFFECT ALL PLANTS INSECTS AND
THEIR NATURAL ENEMIES UNIFORMLY 4HE lTNESS OF SOME
WILL IMPROVE WHILE THAT OF OTHERS WILL DETERIORATE 3HIFTS
IN INSECT POPULATION AND COMMUNITY DYNAMICS WILL
FEED BACK TO AFFECT HOW FORESTS OF THE REGION FUNCTION
AS RESPONDERS TO AND MODULATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
4E R R E S T R I A L % C O S Y S T E M S
ARE MOST ABUNDANT IN ASPEN FORESTS MIGHT BE ESPE
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê7ˆ`ˆvi
CIALLY LIKELY TO SHIFT THEIR RANGES TO THE NORTH )NDEED
/NE IMPORTANT ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATION OF FOREST CHANGE
THE FAILURE OF EFFORTS TO REINTRODUCE RUFFED GROUSE TO
IS THE POSSIBLE DEGRADATION OF MIGRATORY CORRIDORS FOR
PARTS OF THEIR HISTORICAL RANGE IN )LLINOIS MIGHT BE
ANIMALS ! WIDE GAP OF LARGELY AGRICULTURAL LANDS EXISTS
PARTLY A RESULT OF CHANGING FOREST CONDITIONS CAUSED
BETWEEN THE EXTENSIVE TROPICAL FORESTS OF #ENTRAL AND
BY CLIMATE CHANGE AS WELL AS HUMAN LAND USE
3OUTH !MERICA AND FORESTS IN THE NORTHERN 'REAT ,AKES
#LIMATE WARMING MAY ALSO BENElT SOME RESIDENT
WHERE MANY MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS SUCH AS SCARLET
MAMMALS SUCH AS WHITETAILED
TANAGERS WARBLERS THRUSHES mY
DEER WHICH ARE ALREADY EXPERI
À>}“i˜Ì>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê
CATCHERS AND VIREOS BREED 4HIS GAP
ENCING RECORD HIGH POPULATIONS
IS ACTUALLY WIDER THAN THE PORTION
̅iÊ`ˆÃÀի̈œ˜ÊV>ÕÃi`Ê
IN THE REGION AND ARE SEVERELY
OF THE 'ULF OF -EXICO THAT MANY OF
ALTERING FOREST GROWTH WITH THEIR
LÞÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ܈Ê
THESE TROPICAL MIGRANTS MUST CROSS
BROWSING 2EDUCED WINTER MOR
4HE NETWORKS OF WOODED STREAMS
ˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ̅iʜ««œÀÌՇ
TALITY DURING MILDER WINTERS MIGHT
WOODLOTS AND EVEN URBAN FORESTS
EXACERBATE THIS DAMAGE TO FORESTS
˜ˆÌˆiÃÊvœÀÊiݜ̈VÊëiVˆiÃÊ
THAT DOT THE AGRICULTURAL PORTIONS OF
-OOSE WHICH ARE ALREADY NEAR
THIS GAP ARE CRITICAL STOPOVER AND
̜ʈ˜Û>`iÊvœÀiÃÌÃ]ÊvÕÀ̅iÀÊ THEIR SOUTHERN GEOGRAPHIC LIMIT
REFUELING SITES FOR THE MIGRANTS
IN THE REGION COULD BE NEGATIVELY
ÃÌÀiÃȘ}ʘ>̈ÛiÊëiVˆið
#LIMATEDRIVEN SHIFTS IN THE TIMING
IMPACTED BOTH BY WARMING AND
OF TREE LEAFOUT SEED PRODUCTION
BY THE INCREASING DENSITY OF DEER $EER CARRY THREE
AND INSECT EMERGENCE HOWEVER MAY THROW THESE
PARASITESˆBRAINWORM LIVER mUKE AND WINTER TICKˆ
WOODED REMNANTS OUT OF SYNC WITH THE BIRDS ARRIVAL
THAT SEVERELY STRESS MOOSE
#URRENTLY FOR INSTANCE MIGRATING SONGBIRDS
2EDUCED WINTER MORTALITY OF OMNIVOROUS MAM
GATHER IN OAK TREES IN LARGE NUMBERS DURING SPRING
MALS SUCH AS RACCOONS POSSUMS AND SKUNKS COULD
MIGRATION TO CONSUME CATERPILLARS THAT ATTACK THE OAKS
INCREASE THEIR OVERALL ABUNDANCE POTENTIALLY INCREAS
DURING LEAFOUT A SITUATION MUTUALLY BENElCIAL TO THE
ING PREDATION ON GROUNDNESTING SONGBIRDS AND
TREES AND THE BIRDS "UT LEAFOUT OF TREES AND HATCH
OTHER VULNERABLE PREY &IGURE ING OF CATERPILLAR EGGS IS CLOSELY TIED TO TEMPERATURE
4HE BENElTS OF WARMING FOR SOME RESIDENT MAM
AND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
1,Êә
MALS AND BIRDS COULD BE COUNTERED BY POTENTIAL CHANGES
EARLIER AS THE CLIMATE
6ˆÀ}ˆ˜ˆ>Ê*œÃÃՓ½ÃÊ
,>˜}iÊÝ«>˜`ˆ˜}Ê œÀÌ
IN THE DYNAMICS OF WILDLIFE DISEASES OR INCREASED WIN
WARMS "ECAUSE MANY
TER SURVIVAL OF PATHOGENS AND INSECT VECTORS 3UCH
BIRDS MIGRATE IN RESPONSE
EFFECTS WOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN NORTHERN SPECIES
TO DAY LENGTH RATHER
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN EXPOSED TO OR EVOLVED DEFENSES
THAN TEMPERATURE SOME
AGAINST DISEASES FROM WARMER LATITUDES
SONGBIRDS MAY ARRIVE
#LIMATE CHANGE WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH FOREST
FROM THE TROPICS WELL
FRAGMENTATION PARTICULARLY IN HEAVILY AGRICULTURAL
AFTER THE SPRING mUSH
AREAS TO CREATE GREATER STRESS ON MANY BREEDING BIRDS
OF INSECTS THAT ACCOM
AND SOME REPTILES AND AMPHIBIANS 4HE IMPACT WILL
PANIES LEAFOUT 4HE
BE MOST SEVERE ON RELATIVELY IMMOBILE SPECIES RESTRICT
SAME PHENOMENON MAY
ING THEIR ABILITY TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO COLONIZE NEWLY
APPLY TO THE mUSH OF
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{n
SUITABLE PATCHES OR ESCAPE NEWLY INHOSPITABLE CLIMATES
SPRING INSECTS COMING
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
/N THE OTHER HAND SOME PREDATORS THAT ALREADY THRIVE
OUT OF WETLANDS THAT ARE
IN FRAGMENTED HABITATS WILL BENElT FROM WARMING
VITAL TO MANY MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS 5NLIKE MIGRANTS
2AT SNAKES FOR EXAMPLE ARE MORE ACTIVE IN WARMER
HOWEVER SOME YEARROUND RESIDENT BIRDS MAY BENElT
TEMPERATURES IN FRAGMENTED HABITATS WHERE THEY ARE
FROM WARMING A PHENOMENON THAT COULD FURTHER
EXPOSED DIRECTLY TO SUNLIGHT ON THE FOREST EDGE
STRESS MIGRATORY BIRDS SEE BOX P
3OME OF THESE PREDATORS WILL ALSO MOVE NORTH
0OPULAR GAMEBIRDS SUCH AS RUFFED GROUSE WHICH
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
INCREASING THE STRESSES ON NESTING BIRDS 3NAKES ARE
DOMINANT NEST PREDATORS SOUTH OF THE #ORN "ELT BUT
ARE ACTUALLY AN ENDANGERED SPECIES IN #ANADA WHERE
THEY DEPEND HEAVILY UPON EDGE HABITATS
&RAGMENTATION AND THE DISRUPTION CAUSED BY CLIMATE
CHANGE WILL ALSO INCREASE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON
NATIVE SPECIES TO INVADE FORESTS PUTTING FURTHER PRES
SURES ON NATIVE SPECIES
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê>˜`ÃV>«iÃ
4
HE SIX 'REAT ,AKES STATES CONTAIN MILLION
ACRES OF FARMLAND AND SEND MORE THAN BILLION 53 IN PRODUCTS TO MARKET !GRICUL
TURAL PRODUCTION FROM MILLION ACRES OF FARMLAND
IN /NTARIO IS VALUED AT BILLION #DN )N GENERAL
LIVESTOCK IS MORE IMPORTANT IN THE NORTHERN AREAS
-INNESOTA 7ISCONSIN WESTERN /NTARIO WHILE ROW
CROPS DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN AREAS !LL OF THE 'REAT
,AKES STATES RANK IN THE TOP FOR THE VALUE OF DAIRY
PRODUCTS AND CROPS SOLD NATIONALLY &IGURE 4HE
REGION ALSO RANKS HIGH IN PRODUCTION OF HORTICULTURAL
CROPS AND FRESH MARKET PRODUCTS FROM VEGETABLES
TO FRUIT
#ROP PRODUCTION IN THE REGION IS PRIMARILY RAINFED
AND WEATHER IS THE MOST IMPORTANT UNCONTROLLED FACTOR
INmUENCING CROP PRODUCTION 0RODUCTION CAN BE
HARMED BY HEAT STRESS PESTS OZONE EXTREME WEATHER
EVENTS SUCH AS RAINS THAT DELAY PLANTING OR HARVEST
AND BELOWNORMAL PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING
CRITICAL STAGES OF PLANT GROWTH SEE &IGURE P
(ISTORICAL INmUENCES OF WEATHER ON YIELDS ARE DIFlCULT
TO SEPARATE FROM THE INmUENCES OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND
CULTURAL IMPROVEMENTS WHICH HAVE DRAMATICALLY IN
CREASED YIELDS OVER THE PAST CENTURY BUT HAVE ALSO
LED TO A TRANSFORMATION AND IN SOME CASES IMPOVERISH
MENT OF THE 'REAT ,AKES REGIONAL LANDSCAPE
ˆ“>Ìiʓ«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê
Àœ«Ã
-OST PREDICTIONS FROM LARGESCALE SIMULATIONS SUGGEST
THAT WHILE CLIMATE CHANGE IS LIKELY TO SHIFT CROP PRODUC
TION PATTERNS THE REGIONS AGRICULTURAL CAPACITY IS UN
LIKELY TO BE SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED OVER THE NEXT CENTURY
)NDEED YIELD INCREASES OF TO PERCENT FOR MANY
CROPS HAVE BEEN PROJECTED BASED ON EARLIER CLIMATE
MODELS PROJECTING LESS WARMING ALTHOUGH THESE STUDIES
CONCLUDED THAT TROPICAL OR WARMSEASON CROPS SUCH
AS CORN MAY INCREASE LESS THAN SOYBEANS AND WHEAT
!NOTHER RECENT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT SOYBEAN BIOMASS
COULD INCREASE BY PERCENT AND SOYBEAN YIELD BY
PERCENT 3UCH PREDICTIONS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCER
TAIN HOWEVER BECAUSE THE STRENGTH AND EVEN DIRECTION
OF CROP RESPONSES CAN SHIFT WITH DIFFERENT CLIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIOS 5NLESS TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY
WARM BEYOND CROP GROWTH THRESHOLDS FACTORS OTHER
THAN CLIMATE CHANGE WILL
1,ÊÎä
HAVE AS GREAT OR GREATER ˆÝi`ʓ«>VÌÃÊvœÀÊ}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
INFLUENCE ON TRENDS IN
AGRICULTURE 4HESE FACTORS
INCLUDE REGIONAL POPU
LATION GROWTH ACCESS TO
RESOURCES INCLUDING EMERG
ING TECHNOLOGY AND MAR
KET mUCTUATIONS
0RODUCERS MAY TAKE
NO COMFORT IN PREDICTIONS
FOR hAVERAGEv RESPONSES OF
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{™
CROP YIELDS TO VARIOUS vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS
!VERAGES MASK SITETOSITE AND INCREASING YEARTOYEAR
VARIABILITY IN YIELD WHICH AT THE FARM LEVEL TRANSLATES
TO HIGHER RISK /NE STUDY OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARI
ABILITY ON FARMLEVEL RISK OF CROP FAILURE IN )LLINOIS AND
7ISCONSIN FOUND NOT SURPRISINGLY THAT RISK EXPOSURE
WAS GREATER FOR SMALLER FARMS AND VARIED REGIONALLY
AND AMONG CROPS 3UCH IMPACTS ON VARIABILITY AND
RISK ARE LIKELY TO REINFORCE THE TREND TOWARD INCREAS
ING FARM SIZE AND INDUSTRIALIZATION OF AGRICULTURE
IN THE REGION
-ODELS RUN AT SMALLER SCALES CONSISTENTLY SHOW
THAT THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING CLIMATE WILL VARY ACROSS
THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION /PTIMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TYPICALLY BRINGING
THE GREATEST BENElTS TO -ICHIGAN -INNESOTA 7ISCON
SIN AND EASTERN /NTARIO 3HIFTS IN THE DISTRIBUTION
OF AGRICULTURE MAY BE CONSTRAINED IN NORTHERN AREAS
BY THIN AND ACIDIC SOILS SEE &IGURE P )F MORE
INTENSIVE PRODUCTION MOVES UPWARD FROM THE SOUTH
ERN EDGE OF THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION ONTO SHALLOWER
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
4E R R E S T R I A L % C O S Y S T E M S
COARSER TEXTURED SOILS
EARLIER PLANTING DATES COULD INCREASE SOYBEAN YIELD
IN THE NORTHERN AREAS
UP TO PERCENT ABOVE CURRENT LEVELS IN THE CENTRAL
CHEMICALS AND NUTRIENTS
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION )N THE SOUTHERN
USED TO INCREASE SOIL FER
AREAS COMPARATIVELY SMALL YIELD INCREASES TO
TILITY MAY INCREASINGLY
PERCENT OR SMALL DECREASES n TO n PERCENT
RUN OFF INTO AQUATIC
WERE PREDICTED 7HEAT YIELDS MAY ALSO INCREASE
SYSTEMS !GRICULTURE IS
APPROXIMATELY PERCENT AS A RESULT OF #/ FERTILI
CURRENTLY A CHIEF SOURCE
ZATION HOWEVER INCREASES RESULTING FROM EARLIER PLANT
FOR CHEMICAL CONTAMINA
ING DATES MIGHT BE LIMITED BECAUSE THEY OVERLAP THE
TION OF GROUND AND SUR
GROWING SEASON OF A PREVIOUS CROP
FACE WATERS BUT THERE
#/ FERTILIZATION MAY ALSO INmUENCE CROP YIELD
-iiÊ«>}iÊ{™
HAS BEEN LITTLE INVESTIGA
IN INDIRECT WAYS )NITIAL RESULTS FROM A LARGESCALE EX
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
TION OF HOW REDISTRIBU
PERIMENT THAT BEGAN IN #HAMPAIGN )LLINOIS IN TION OF AGRICULTURE IN
SHOWED AS EXPECTED THAT ELEVATED #/ ENHANCED
A CHANGING CLIMATE MAY INTERACT WITH THIS PROBLEM
SOYBEAN YIELDS 4HE RESULTS ALSO INDICATED THAT ELEV
/NE RECENT STUDY PROJECTED INCREASES IN PRODUC
ATED #/ INCREASED THE WATER USE EFlCIENCY OF THE
TION THANKS TO A LONGER GROWING SEASON AND WARMER
SOYBEAN PLANTS A RESPONSE THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
TEMPERATURES BUT THAT STUDY RELIED ON A MODEL THAT
REDUCE CROP WATER REQUIREMENTS AND REDUCE THE mUX
PREDICTS PRECIPITATION TRENDS THAT ARE MUCH MORE FAVOR
OF WATER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE
ABLE FOR CROP PRODUCTION THAN THIS REPORT ASSUMES
/ZONE CONCENTRATIONS CAN COUNTER POSITIVE TRENDS
9IELD TRENDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL SHORT OF THOSE PREDICTIONS IF
IN CROP YIELDS JUST AS IN FOREST PRODUCTIVITY )N ADDI
SUMMER RAINFALL DECREASES AS SUGGESTED BY THE CLIMATE
TION TO URBAN SOURCES OF OZONE IN THE REGION AGRICUL
SCENARIOS USED IN THIS REPORT SEE &IGURES AND TURAL APPLICATION OF FERTILIZERS CAN CAUSE LOCAL PEAKS IN
P 4HESE SCENARIOS PROJECT WETTER PERIODS OCCUR
OZONE LEVELS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO INCREASE
RING DURING TIMES THAT COULD DELAY HARVEST OR PLANTING
OZONE FORMATION !LREADY REGIONAL OZONE CONCENTRA
AND DRY SPELLS DURING TIMES WHEN CROPS DEMAND WATER
TIONS FREQUENTLY REACH LEVELS THAT DAMAGE CROPS
!S MODELS IMPROVE AND INCLUDE FACTORS SUCH AS EXTREME
AND OZONE EXPOSURE IS CREDITED WITH CAUSING ALONE
WEATHER EVENTS OR THE INmUENCE OF PESTS THEY ARE LIKELY
OR IN COMBINATION WITH OTHER POLLUTANTS ABOUT TO PRODUCE LESS FAVORABLE OUTCOMES FOR AGRICULTURE
PERCENT OF THE AIR POLLUTION–BASED CROP LOSSES /ZONE
THAN HAVE BEEN PREDICTED
DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
TO DATE
CAUSE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
vÌiÀÊv>V̜Àˆ˜}ʈ˜ÊiÝÌÀi“iÊÜi>̅iÀÊ
4HE COMPLEXITY OF
LOSSES IN SOYBEAN YIELDS
AGRICULTURAL RESPONSES TO
OF TO PERCENT IN
iÛi˜ÌÃʜÀÊ̅iʈ˜vÕi˜ViʜvÊ«iÃÌÃ]Ê̅iÊ
CLIMATE CHANGE IS HIGH
THE -ISSISSIPPI AND /HIO
«ˆVÌÕÀiÊvœÀÊ>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀiʈÃʏiÃÃÊv>ۜÀ>LiÊ
LIGHTED BY AN INTEGRATED
VALLEYS 3IMILAR LOSSES
ASSESSMENT THAT FOCUSED
ARE PROJECTED FOR HORTI
̅>˜Ê«ÀiۈœÕÃÊ«Ài`ˆV̈œ˜ÃÊÃÕ}}iÃÌi`°
ON lVE UPPER -IDWEST
CULTURAL CROPS WHICH
STATES )LLINOIS )NDIANA
ARE AT LEAST AS SENSITIVE
-ICHIGAN /HIO AND 7ISCONSIN 4RENDS IN SOUTH
TO OZONE DAMAGE AS SOYBEANS
ERN AREAS OF /NTARIO WOULD BE EXPECTED TO RESEMBLE
THOSE PROJECTED FOR -ICHIGAN 4HE ASSESSMENT PREDICT
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê*iÃÌÃ
ED MEAN INCREASES IN CORN YIELD OF PERCENT BUT THE
7ARMING TEMPERATURES MAY INmUENCE PEST AND
RANGE OF BOTH INCREASES IN SOME NORTHERN AREAS DISEASE INCIDENCE IN SEVERAL WAYS &IRST WARMER AND
TO PERCENT AND DECREASES IN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
SHORTER WINTERS WILL ALLOW MORE SOUTHERLY PESTS SUCH
n PERCENT WAS LARGE 4HE LARGEST CORNYIELD DECREASES
AS CORN EARWORMS AND FALL ARMYWORMS TO EXPAND
WERE PROJECTED FOR WESTERN )LLINOIS )N ADDITION
THEIR RANGE NORTHWARD )NDEED SUCH A SHIFT ALREADY
THE ASSESSMENT PREDICTED THAT #/ FERTILIZATION AND
APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING WITH BEAN LEAF BEETLES WHICH
1,ÊΣ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iÊ>˜`Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê*iÃÌÃ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
ÝÌÀi“iÊÛi˜ÌÃ]Ê*ÕLˆVÊi>Ì…]Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊ
Փ>˜Ê˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì
ÝÌÀi“iÊiÛi˜ÌÃÊÃÕV…Ê>Ãʅi>ÛÞÊ`œÜ˜«œÕÀÃ]Êvœœ`Ã]ʅi>ÌÊÜ>ÛiÃ]Ê`ÀœÕ}…ÌÃ]Ê̜À˜>`œiÃ]Ê>˜`Ê
؜ÜÃ̜À“ÃÊ>ÀiÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ʫ>ÞÊ>Ê}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÀœiʈ˜Ê>ÊÜ>À“iÀÊܜÀ`°Ê/…ˆÃÊ܈Ê«ÕÌʈ˜VÀi>Ș}Ê
LÕÀ`i˜Ãʜ˜Êi“iÀ}i˜VÞʓ>˜>}i“i˜Ì]Ê«ÕLˆVÊܜÀŽÃ]Ê>˜`ʅi>Ì…ÊV>ÀiÊÃiÀۈViÃÊ>˜`ÊiÝ>VÌÊ>Ê
}ÀœÜˆ˜}Êvˆ˜>˜Vˆ>Ê̜ÊvÀœ“Ê}œÛiÀ˜“i˜ÌÃ]ÊLÕȘiÃÃiÃ]Ê>˜`ʅœ“iœÜ˜iÀðʏˆ˜œˆÃʅ>ÃÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜Vi`ÊÊ
Ê
>ÊÃÌ>ÀŽÊ«ÀiۈiÜʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊvÕÌÕÀiÊÃVi˜>ÀˆœÊ`ÕÀˆ˜}Ê̅iÊ«>ÃÌÊ£xÊÞi>ÀÃÊ܈̅Ê>ÊÃiÛiÀiÊ`ÀœÕ}…Ìʈ˜Ê£™nn]Ê
ˆÃÈÃÈ««ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀÊvœœ`ˆ˜}ʈ˜Ê£™™Î]Ê>Ê£™™xʅi>ÌÊÜ>Ûi]Ê>ÊÃiÛiÀiÊÀ>ˆ˜Ã̜À“ʈ˜Ê
ˆV>}œÊˆ˜Ê£™™È]Ê>Ê
£™™Èʅi>ÌÊÜ>Ûi]Ê>Ê£™™™Ê܈˜`Ã̜À“ʈ˜Êœœ“ˆ˜}̜˜]Ê>˜œÌ…iÀʈÃÈÃÈ««ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀÊvœœ`ʈ˜ÊÓääÓ]Ê
>˜`ʘՓiÀœÕÃÊ̜À˜>`œiÃÊ>˜`ÊÃiÛiÀiÊÃ̜À“ð{ä
/…iÊ`ˆÃÀի̈œ˜ÃÊ>˜`ʏœÃÃiÃÊÜVˆiÌÞÊv>ViÃÊÜiÀiÊ`À>“>̈V>ÞÊ
`i“œ˜ÃÌÀ>Ìi`Ê `ÕÀˆ˜}Ê Ì…iÊ ÀiVœÀ`‡LÀi>Žˆ˜}Ê Ó{‡…œÕÀÊ
1,ÊÎÓ
/i“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊÝÌÀi“iÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ,i}ˆœ˜
À>ˆ˜Ã̜À“Ê̅>ÌʜVVÕÀÀi`ʜ˜ÊՏÞÊ£Çq£n]Ê£™™È]ʈ˜ÊÜÕ̅Ê
ˆV>}œ°Ê …ˆV>}œÊ >˜`Ê Ó£Ê ÃÕLÕÀLÃÊ iÝ«iÀˆi˜Vi`Ê v>ÅÊ
vœœ`ˆ˜}Ê̅>ÌÊLÀœŽiÊÀi}ˆœ˜>ÊÀiVœÀ`ÃÊ>˜`ʎˆi`ÊÈÝÊ«iœ«i]Ê
`>“>}i`ÊÎx]äääʅœ“iÃ]Ê>˜`ÊV>ÕÃi`ÊiÛ>VÕ>̈œ˜ÊœvʓœÀiÊ
̅>˜Ê {]ÎääÊ «iœ«i°Ê œÃÃiÃÊ >˜`Ê ÀiVœÛiÀÞÊ VœÃÌÃÊ Ài>V…i`Ê
fÈ{xÊ “ˆˆœ˜Ê ­1-®]Ê “>Žˆ˜}Ê Ì…>ÌÊ Ãˆ˜}iÊ Ã̜À“Ê ˆ˜œˆÃ½Ê
ÃiVœ˜`ʓœÃÌÊVœÃ̏ÞÊÜi>̅iÀÊ`ˆÃ>ÃÌiÀʜ˜ÊÀiVœÀ`Ê>vÌiÀÊ̅iÊ
£™™ÎʈÃÈÃÈ««ˆÊ,ˆÛiÀÊvœœ`°Ê˜Ê>`>Vi˜ÌÊÀÕÀ>Ê>Ài>Ã]Êvœœ`Ê
-iiÊ«>}iÊxä
`>“>}iÊ̜ÊVÀœ«ÃÊVœÃÌÊv>À“iÀÃÊfÈÇʓˆˆœ˜Ê­1-®°£ÈÇ
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
"̅iÀÊV…>˜}iÃÊ̅>ÌÊ܈Êˆ“«>VÌʅՓ>˜Ê…i>Ì…Ê>˜`Êi˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì>ÊµÕ>ˆÌÞÊ>ÀiÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜ʈ˜VÕ`iÊ
̅iÊvœœÜˆ˜}\Ê
˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜ÊiÝÌÀi“iʅi>ÌÊ>˜`ʅi>ÌÊÜ>ÛiÃ
/…iʘՓLiÀʜvʅœÌÊ`>ÞÃʈÃÊ«ÀœiVÌi`Ê̜ʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê̅ÀœÕ}…ÊÓ£ääÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊ
ÎÓ>®]Ê܈̅ʓ>˜ÞÊÞi>ÀÃÊiÝ«iÀˆi˜Vˆ˜}Ê{äʜÀʓœÀiÊ`>ÞÃÊiÝVii`ˆ˜}ʙäcÊ­ÎÓc
®ÊLÞÊ̅iʏ>ÃÌÊviÜÊ`iV>`iÃÊ
œvÊ̅iÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ°Ê"vÊ}Ài>ÌiÀÊVœ˜ViÀ˜ÊvœÀʅՓ>˜Ê…i>Ì…ʈÃÊ̅iÊ«ÀœiVÌi`ʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê`>ÞÃÊÀi>V…ˆ˜}Ê£ä{cÊ
­{äc
®ÊœÀʓœÀi°Ê˜Ê̅iÊÕ««iÀÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃ]Ê̅iʈ“«>VÌÃÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ÊLiÊ}Ài>ÌiÃÌʈ˜ÊÕÀL>˜Ê>Ài>Ã]Êiëi‡
Vˆ>Þʈ˜ÊVˆÌˆiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊ/œÀœ˜ÌœÊœÀʈ˜˜i>«œˆÃÉ-Ì°Ê*>ՏÊ܅iÀiÊiÝÌÀi“iÞʅˆ}…ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ
>ÛiʅˆÃ̜ÀˆV>ÞÊLii˜ÊÀ>Ài°ÊÊÀiVi˜Ìʅi>Ì…ʈ“«>VÌÃÊÃÌÕ`ÞÊvœÀÊ̅iÊ/œÀœ˜Ìœ‡ ˆ>}>À>ÊÀi}ˆœ˜ÊvœÕ˜`Ê̅>ÌÊ
̅iÊVÕÀÀi˜ÌʘՓLiÀʜvÊ`>ÞÃÊ܈̅ʓ>݈“Õ“ÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>LœÛiÊnÈcÊ­Îäc
®ÊVœÕ`Ê`œÕLiÊLÞÊ̅iÊ
ÓäÎäÃÊ>˜`ÊÃÕÀ«>ÃÃÊxäÊ`>ÞÃÊLÞÊ̅iÊÓänäðÊ/…iÊ>˜˜Õ>Ê…i>̇Ài>Ìi`Ê`i>̅ÊÀ>ÌiʜvÊ£™Ê«iÀÊÞi>Àʈ˜Ê
/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ>œ˜iÊVœÕ`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ£ä‡Ê̜Ê{ä‡vœ`]Ê`i«i˜`ˆ˜}ʜ˜Ê̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊÃVi˜>ÀˆœÃÊÕÃi`°£ÈnÊ"˜Ê̅iÊ
œÌ…iÀʅ>˜`]ÊVœ`‡Ài>Ìi`ʅi>Ì…ÊÀˆÃŽÃÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜Ê`iVˆ˜iʜÛiÀÊ̈“iʈvÊ̅iÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞʜvÊiÝÌÀi“iÊ
Vœ`ÊÜi>̅iÀÊ«iÀˆœ`ÃÊ`ÕÀˆ˜}Ê܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ`iVÀi>Ãið
Ê«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÊLœœÃÌÊ̜Ê>ˆÀÊ«œṎœ˜Ê
ˆ}…iÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃʓ>ÞÊi˜…>˜ViÊ̅iÊvœÀ“>̈œ˜Êœvʜ✘iÊ>˜`Ê>ÃœÊˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ`i“>˜`ÊvœÀÊiiVÌÀˆVˆÌÞÊ
vœÀÊÃՓ“iÀÊ>ˆÀ‡Vœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜ˆ˜}]Ê̅iÀiLÞÊLœœÃ̈˜}Êi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃʜvÊ>ˆÀÊ«œÕÌ>˜ÌÃÊ̅>ÌÊV>˜ÊiÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊ
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
4E R R E S T R I A L % C O S Y S T E M S
ÀiëˆÀ>̜ÀÞÊ`ˆÃi>Ãi°Ê-ÌÕ`ˆiÃÊÕȘ}ʜ`iÀÊVˆ“>Ìiʓœ`iÃʈ˜`ˆV>ÌiÊ̅>ÌÊÜi>̅iÀÊVœ˜`ˆÌˆœ˜ÃÊVœ˜`ÕVˆÛiÊ
̜ʅˆ}…ʜ✘iÊ>ÀiʏˆŽiÞÊ̜ʜVVÕÀʓœÀiʜvÌi˜ÊLÞÊ̅iÊi˜`ʜvÊ̅iÊVi˜ÌÕÀÞ°£È™Ê˜`ii`]Ê̅iʘՓLiÀʜvʅœÌÊ
`>ÞÃÊVœ˜`ÕVˆÛiÊ̜ʅˆ}…ʜ✘iʓˆ}…Ìʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÊLÞÊxÊ̜ʣääÊ̈“iÃÊ«ÀiÃi˜ÌʏiÛiÃÊvœÀÊiÌÀœˆÌ°Ê iÜiÀÊ
Vˆ“>Ìiʓœ`iÃÊ«Ài`ˆVÌÊiÛi˜Ê…ˆ}…iÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>˜`Ê̅ÕÃÊ}Ài>ÌiÀÊiÝ>ViÀL>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ>ˆÀÊ«œṎœ˜°
7>ÌiÀʵÕ>ˆÌÞÊV…>˜}iÃ
ˆ“>Ìi‡Ài>Ìi`ÊÀˆÃŽÃÊ̜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜½ÃÊÜ>ÌiÀÊÃÕ««Þʈ˜VÕ`iÊ«œÌi˜Ìˆ>Êˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜Ê˜ˆÌÀ>ÌiÊ«œṎœ˜]Ê
˜ÕˆÃ>˜ViÊ>}>ÊLœœ“Ã]Ê«iÃ̈Vˆ`iÊÀiÈ`ÕiÃÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀÊ̜݈˜ÃÊÃ̜Ài`ʈ˜Ê>ŽiÊ>˜`ÊÀˆÛiÀÊÃi`ˆ“i˜ÌÃ]Ê>˜`Ê̅iÊ
ëÀi>`ʜvÊ«>À>È̈VÊ>˜`Ê«>̅œ}i˜ˆVʓˆVÀœœÀ}>˜ˆÃ“ðÊ
1,ÊÎÓ
œ˜ViÀ˜ÃÊLœÕÌʘÃiVÌLœÀ˜iÊ
˜viV̈œÕÃʈÃi>ÃiÃ
œÀÊiÝ>“«i]ÊܓiÊÜ>ÌiÀLœÀ˜iʈ˜viV̈œÕÃÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÃÊ
ÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊVÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆœÃˆÃʜÀÊ}ˆ>À`ˆ>ÈÃʓ>ÞÊLiVœ“iÊ
VÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆœÃˆÃ
VÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆœÃˆÃʜÀÊ}ˆ>À`ˆ>ÈÃʓ>ÞÊLiVœ“iÊ
“œÀiÊvÀiµÕi˜ÌʜÀÊ܈`iëÀi>`ʈvÊiÝÌÀi“iÊÀ>ˆ˜Ã̜À“ÃÊ
œVVÕÀʓœÀiʜvÌi˜°£ÇäÊ"˜iʜvÊ̅iÊLiÃÌʎ˜œÜ˜ÊiÝ>“«iÃÊ
œvÊ>ÊVÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆÕ“ÊœÕÌLÀi>ŽÊœVVÕÀÀi`ʈ˜ÊˆÜ>Վiiʈ˜Ê
VÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆÕ“
VÀޫ̜ëœÀˆ`ˆÕ“ÊœÕÌLÀi>ŽÊœVVÕÀÀi`ʈ˜ÊˆÜ>Վiiʈ˜Ê
£™™ÎÊ>vÌiÀÊ>˜ÊiÝÌi˜`i`Ê«iÀˆœ`ʜvÊÀ>ˆ˜v>Ê>˜`ÊÀ՘œvvÊ
œÛiÀ܅i“i`Ê̅iÊVˆÌÞ½ÃÊ`Àˆ˜Žˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ«ÕÀˆvˆV>̈œ˜Ê
ÃÞÃÌi“Ê>˜`ÊV>ÕÃi`Ê{äÎ]äääÊV>ÃiÃʜvʈ˜ÌiÃ̈˜>Êˆ˜iÃÃÊ
>˜`Êx{Ê`i>̅ð£Ç£ÊˆÜ>Վii½ÃÊ`Àˆ˜Žˆ˜}ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
œÀˆ}ˆ˜>ÌiÃʈ˜Ê>ŽiʈV…ˆ}>˜°
*œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜ÊÛiV̜ÀLœÀ˜iÊ
ˆ˜viV̈œÕÃÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÊÀˆÃŽÃ
-iiÊ«>}iÊxä
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
i˜Vˆ˜}ÊÌÀ>˜Ã“ˆÃȜ˜°
/…iʜVVÕÀÀi˜Viʜvʓ>˜Þʈ˜viV̈œÕÃÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÃʈÃÊÃÌÀœ˜}ÞÊ
Ãi>ܘ>]ÊÃÕ}}iÃ̈˜}Ê̅>ÌÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ«>ÞÃÊ>ÊÀœiʈ˜Êˆ˜vÕ‡
Ê-̰ʜՈÃÊi˜Vi«…>ˆÌˆÃʜÕÌLÀi>ŽÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊÀi}ˆœ˜]ÊvœÀÊiÝ>“«i]ʅ>ÛiÊ
£ÇÓ
Lii˜Ê>ÃÜVˆ>Ìi`Ê܈̅ÊiÝÌi˜`i`Ê«iÀˆœ`ÃʜvÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>LœÛiÊnxcʭәc
®Ê>˜`ʏˆÌ̏iÊÀ>ˆ˜v>°£ÇÎÊ-œ“iÊ
ÛiV̜ÀLœÀ˜iÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊޓiÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiʜÀ]ʓœÀiÊÀiVi˜ÌÞ]Ê7iÃÌÊ ˆiÊi˜Vi«…>ˆÌˆÃʅ>ÛiÊiÝ«>˜`i`Ê
܈`iÞÊ>VÀœÃÃÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê7…ˆiÊ̅ˆÃÊëÀi>`ʈÃÊ>ÌÌÀˆLÕÌi`ʏ>À}iÞÊ̜ʏ>˜`ÊÕÃiÊV…>˜}iÃ]ÊvÕÌÕÀiÊV…>˜}iÃÊ
ˆ˜ÊÀ>ˆ˜v>ÊœÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊVœÕ`Êi˜VœÕÀ>}iÊ}Ài>ÌiÀÊÀi«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜ÊœÀÊÃÕÀۈÛ>ÊœvÊ̅iÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÊÛiV̜ÀÃ]Ê
܅ˆV…Ê>ÀiÊ̈VŽÃÊ>˜`ʓœÃµÕˆÌœiÃ]ÊÀiëiV̈ÛiÞÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÎÓL®°£ÇÓ
NOT ONLY FEED ON SOYBEANS BUT ALSO SERVE AS VECTORS FOR
A VIRUS THAT CAUSES DISEASE IN SOYBEANS 3ECOND WARMING
WILL INCREASE THE RATE OF INSECT DEVELOPMENT AND THE
NUMBER OF GENERATIONS THAT CAN BE COMPLETED EACH
YEAR CONTRIBUTING TO A BUILDUP OF PEST POPULATIONS
%XTENDED GROWING SEASONS ARE LIKELY TO ALLOW THE
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF SOME PESTS WITH MULTIPLE
GENERATIONS PER YEAR SUCH AS A RACE OF %UROPEAN CORN
BORER NOW LIMITED TO SOUTHERN 7ISCONSIN AND FURTHER
SOUTH &IGURE P )NCREASED PESTS MAY ALSO DRIVE
FARMERS TO USE MORE PESTICIDES OR RELATED CHEMICALS
PLACING AN ADDITIONAL BURDEN ON WATER QUALITY
4HE DECLINE IN THE FOOD VALUE OF PLANT LEAVES
UNDER INCREASING #/ WILL ALSO INTERACT IN COMPLEX
WAYS WITH A WARMING CLIMATE TO AFFECT BOTH PLANTS
AND INSECTS &OR EXAMPLE ONE STUDY FOUND THAT
WARMING ACCELERATED INSECT DEVELOPMENT TO SUCH AN
EXTENT THAT THE LARVAE COULD NOT FEED LONG ENOUGH TO
COMPENSATE FOR THE POORER QUALITY OF THE FOLIAGE
“«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊˆÛiÃ̜VŽ
#LIMATE CHANGE WILL AFFECT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
INDIRECTLY THROUGH INmUENCES ON FORAGE QUANTITY AND
QUALITY AND DIRECTLY THROUGH INmUENCES ON ANIMAL
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
PHYSIOLOGY OR FACILITY REQUIREMENTS $IRECT IMPACTS
INCLUDE WARMER SUMMER TEMPERATURES THAT SUPPRESS
APPETITE AND DECREASE WEIGHT GAIN IN ANIMALS &OR
EXAMPLE A ƒ& ƒ# INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE IS PROJECT
ED TO REDUCE ANIMAL PRODUCTIVITY BY PERCENT FOR
BEEF AND DAIRY OPERATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
5NITED 3TATES ALTHOUGH OTHER STUDIES PREDICT ONLY
PERCENT LOSSES (IGHER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
REDUCE STOCKING RATES ON PASTURES AND CAN REDUCE
MILK QUALITY BY REDUCING FORAGE QUALITY AND STRESSING
ANIMALS !NY EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS SUCH AS HEAT
WAVES DROUGHTS AND BLIZZARDS HAVE SEVERE EFFECTS
ON LIVESTOCK HEALTH ALTHOUGH INTENSIVELY MANAGED
LIVESTOCK OPERATIONS ARE BETTER ABLE TO BUFFER THE
EFFECTS OF EXTREME EVENTS
.EGATIVE IMPACTS ON 1 , Ê Î Î
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʓ«>VÌÃÊ
FORAGE AND GRASSLAND œ˜Ê̅iÊ/ˆ“LiÀʘ`ÕÃÌÀÞ
PRODUCTIVITY AND FORAGE
QUALITY CAN RESULT FROM
SUMMER DROUGHT STRESS OR
EXTREME WINTER WEATHER
/NE STUDY PREDICTS THAT
WARMER FALL TEMPERATURES
WILL REDUCE FALL HARDENING
OF FORAGE CROPS RENDERING
THEM LESS HARDY DURING
THE WINTER !DDITION
ALLY THERE WILL BE LESS PRO -iiÊ«>}iÊ{™
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
TECTION BY SNOW COVER
Vœ˜œ“ˆVÊ
œ˜ÃiµÕi˜ViÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜`ÊVœœ}ˆV>Ê
>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê/iÀÀiÃÌÀˆ>Ê-ÞÃÌi“Ã
œÀiÃÌÃÊ>˜`Ê7ˆ`ˆvi
OMMERCIAL FORESTRY IS A SUBSTANTIAL INDUSTRY
IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION AND SIGNIl
CANT FOREST PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES EXIST IN /N
TARIO AND ALL 'REAT ,AKES STATES EXCEPT )LLINOIS &IGURE
#LIMATE WARMING WILL DRIVE CHANGES IN FOREST
EXTENT AND IN THE TYPES OF TREES FOUND IN VARIOUS PARTS
OF THE REGION $URING THE TRANSITION HOWEVER WHILE
TREES ILLSUITED TO NEW CLIMATE CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
BETTERSUITED SPECIES ARE TAKING HOLD FOREST PRODUC
TIVITY AND FOREST INDUSTRIES MAY SUFFER
#HANGES IN THE TYPES OF TREES IN THE FOREST MAY
ALSO BE JARRING TO MANY RESIDENTS SENSE OF PLACE 3HIFTS
FROM BOREAL lR TO HARDWOOD FORESTS IN THE NORTHERN
'REAT ,AKES REGION COULD OCCUR IN THE LIFETIME OF
CURRENT RESIDENTS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING THE CHAR
ACTER OF THESE LOCATIONS 7HILE A hSENSE OF PLACEv IS
FELT STRONGLY BY MANY PEOPLE IT IS HARD TO ASSIGN IT
A DOLLAR VALUE EQUIVALENT TO DOLLAR VALUES FOR CHANGES
IN HARVESTABLE TIMBER
#HANGES IN FOREST COMPOSITION AND EXTENT WILL
ALSO AFFECT WILDLIFE AND THE RECREATIONAL INDUSTRY THAT
HAS GROWN UP AROUND HARVESTING OR WATCHING WILDLIFE
!PPROXIMATELY MILLION ADULTS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES
STATES PARTICIPATE IN BIRD WATCHING OR OTHER WILDLIFE
VIEWING AND ANOTHER MILLION HUNT $ECLINES IN
BIRD SPECIES WOULD HAVE DIRECT ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
#
IN TERMS OF HUNTING OR BIRD WATCHING AS WELL AS IN
DIRECT CONSEQUENCES THROUGH LOSS OF THE BIRDS SERVICES
IN CONTROLLING INSECTS AND OTHER PESTS 4HE LOSS OF
GOOSE HUNTING FROM SOUTHERN )LLINOIS WHERE MORE
THAN A MILLION GEESE ONCE WINTERED HAS SERIOUSLY
AFFECTED THE ECONOMY OF ONE OF THE POOREST REGIONS
OF THAT STATE
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
7HETHER CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BE ECONOMICALLY
ADVANTAGEOUS OR HARMFUL FOR 'REAT ,AKES FARMERS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN (OTTER DRIER SUMMER CONDITIONS
WITH MORE FREQUENT DROUGHTS AS PREDICTED IN THIS
REPORT COULD DISRUPT PRODUCTION ALTHOUGH INCREASED
#/ FERTILIZATION COULD BOOST YIELDS OF SOME CROPS
4HE FATE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION WILL ALSO DEPEND
UPON HOW CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTS THE VARIABILITY AND
PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER PATTERNS %XTREME EVENTS
SUCH AS SEVERE STORMS LATE SPRING OR EARLY FALL FROSTS
AND DROUGHT ALL DEPRESS PRODUCTIVITY
!PART FROM EXTREME EVENTS CROP FARMERS CAN
ADAPT TO MODERATE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE OR PRECI
PITATION IF SUCH CHANGES CAN BE PREDICTED +NOWING
THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER OR WARMER
AND WETTER WILL ALLOW FARMERS TO PLANT CROP VARIETIES
BETTER SUITED TO SUCH CONDITIONS )F THERE IS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER FARMERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
4E R R E S T R I A L % C O S Y S T E M S
CHOOSE THE RIGHT VARIETIES FOR CONDITIONS THAT ACTUALLY
OCCUR LEADING TO A MUCH GREATER RISK OF LOSS 4HUS THE
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ANNUAL CROPS IN THE
'REAT ,AKES REGION APPEAR TO DEPEND MORE ON PREDIC
TABILITY AND VARIABILITY OF WEATHER PATTERNS THAN THE
CHANGE IN OVERALL AVER
1,ÊÎ{
AGES 'REATER CLIMATE
“«>VÌÃʜ˜Ê-Փ“iÀÊ,iVÀi>̈œ˜
VARIABILITY IS MORE PROB
LEMATIC FOR PERENNIAL
CROPS SUCH AS FRUIT TREES
AND VINEYARDS WHERE
ADJUSTMENTS CANNOT BE
MADE AS FREQUENTLY AND
LONGTERM INVESTMENTS
ARE AT RISK
#LIMATE CHANGES
MAY ALSO AFFECT PROD
-iiÊ«>}iÊxä
UCTION COSTS )F DRIER
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
SUMMER CONDITIONS AND
INCREASED DROUGHT PREVAIL INVESTMENTS IN IRRIGATION
MAY BECOME NECESSARY 3UCH A SHIFT WOULD IMPOSE
COSTS DIRECTLY ON FARMERS AND INCREASE TENSIONS OVER
WATER ALLOCATIONS 7ITHOUT IRRIGATION HOWEVER AGRI
CULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CAN DROP SHARPLY DURING DROUGHT
&OR EXAMPLE A DROUGHT REDUCED 53 CORN
PRODUCTION BY PERCENT
)NCREASED SOIL EROSION AND RUNOFF OF AGRICULTURAL
WASTES ARE LIKELY IF THE FREQUENCY OF mOODING INCREASES
'REATER EROSION WOULD INCREASE OFFSITE COSTS OF SEDI
MENTS WHICH ARE ALREADY ESTIMATED AT MILLION
53 FOR THE LAKE STATES OF -ICHIGAN -INNESOTA
AND 7ISCONSIN AND MILLION 53 FOR THE #ORN
"ELT STATES OF )LLINOIS )NDIANA )OWA -ISSOURI AND
/HIO
7HATEVER THE OVERALL OUTCOME CERTAIN GROUPS
MAY GAIN AT THE EXPENSE OF OTHERS &OR EXAMPLE IF
CLIMATE CHANGE TENDS TO INCREASE PRODUCTION RESULTING
PRICE DECLINES MAY HELP CONSUMERS BUT HURT PRODU
CERS 2EGIONAL PRODUCERS WILL DO BETTER IF CLIMATE
CHANGE LOWERS PRODUCTIVITY ELSEWHERE RESULTING IN
LOWER SUPPLY AND HIGHER PRICES BUT DOES LITTLE TO
CHANGE THEIR OWN PRODUCTIVITY )N AN ERA OF EXPANDING
GLOBAL TRADE HOWEVER PRICES TO FARMERS AND COSTS TO
CONSUMERS IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION MAY BE INmU
ENCED MORE BY HOW DROUGHT OR RAIN IS PLAYING OUT
IN CROP lELDS HALF A WORLD AWAY THAN BY HARVESTS
AT HOME
,iVÀi>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê/œÕÀˆÃ“
4RAVEL AND TOURISM BROUGHT IN BILLION 53 IN
REVENUE IN THE 'REAT ,AKES STATES IN AND BILLION #DN IN /NTARIO IN 4HE MOST CERTAIN
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BE ON WINTER SPORTS
ACTIVITIES 7ARM WINTER TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE SNOW
MEAN RED INK FOR SKI AREAS OR AT LEAST INCREASED COSTS
FOR SNOWMAKING #OMMUNITIES AND BUSINESSES DEPEN
DENT ON REVENUES FROM CROSSCOUNTRY OR DOWNHILL
SKIING SNOWMOBILING OR ESPECIALLY ICE lSHING COULD
BE HARD HIT 3OME OF THESE COMMUNITIES AND BUSI
NESSES HOWEVER WILL MAKE UP THE LOSS BY EXPANDING
WARM WEATHER TOURISM AND RECREATION &IGURE # / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#(!04%2
&IVE
-EETING THE #HALLENGES
OF #LIMATE #HANGE
4
HIS REPORT HAS HIGHLIGHTED A VARIETY OF
CHALLENGES THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION WILL FACE
AS CLIMATE CHANGE MAGNIlES THE PRESSURES
IMPOSED BY A GROWING HUMAN POPULATION
ON THE REGIONS ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES
-ANY OF THE IMPACTS EXPLORED HERE ARE NOT INEVITABLE
4HE NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE CAN IN SOME
CASES BE MINIMIZED OR AVOIDED 4HIS CHAPTER EXAMINES
ACTIONS THAT PEOPLE AND POLICYMAKERS CAN TAKE NOW
TO REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY OF ECOSYSTEMS AND VITAL
ECOLOGICAL SERVICES AND TO SAFEGUARD THE ECONOMY AND
WELLBEING OF THE HUMAN POPULATION OF THE REGION
4HREE OVERLAPPING APPROACHES ARE NEEDED TO MEET
THE CHALLENGES POSED BY A CHANGING CLIMATE 4HE lRST
IS TO REDUCE THE REGIONS CONTRIBUTION TO THE GLOBAL
PROBLEM OF HEATTRAPPING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
3OME WARMING IS ALREADY INEVITABLE BECAUSE HISTORICAL
EMISSIONS OF #/ WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARMING
EFFECT FOR DECADES NEVERTHELESS MANY OF THE MOST
EXTREME OUTCOMES FOR THE REGION CAN BE AVOIDED IF
THE PACE AND EVENTUAL SEVERITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE
DAMPED -ANY SCIENTISTS AGREE THAT ULTIMATELY WORLD
WIDE EMISSIONS OF HEATTRAPPING GASES NEED TO BE RE
DUCED SIGNIlCANTLY IN ORDER TO AVOID DANGEROUS CHANGES
IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM 4HE SOONER THESE REDUCTIONS
ARE BEGUN THE LOWER THE COST OF MAKING NECESSARY
CHANGES AND DEALING WITH POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS
3ECOND MINIMIZING HUMAN PRESSURES ON THE GLOBAL
AND LOCAL ENVIRONMENT NOW WILL LESSEN THE SEVERITY OF
FUTURE IMPACTS AND REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY OF ECO
SYSTEMS TO FURTHER STRESSES FROM CLIMATE &INALLY ANTI
CIPATING AND PLANNING FOR THE IMPACTS OF CHANGE THROUGH
BOTH SHORTTERM ADJUSTMENTS AND LONGTERM ADAPTA
TIONS WILL HELP TO REDUCE FUTURE DAMAGE 4HE COST OF
THESE ADJUSTMENTS AND ADAPTATIONS SERVE AS AN ADDI
TIONAL INCENTIVE TO SLOW CLIMATE CHANGE BY REDUCING
THE EMISSIONS OF HEATTRAPPING GASES AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE
!LTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTIONS
OF SPECIlC CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE REGION WE
HAVE MUCH GREATER CONlDENCE IN THE GENERAL PREDIC
TIONS FOR CHANGE SEE BOX P %VEN WHERE UNCER
TAINTY REMAINS TAKING ACTIONS NOW TO REDUCE EMIS
SIONS AND MINIMIZE THREATS TO ECOSYSTEMS IS THE
PRUDENT AND RESPONSIBLE COURSE 7AITING TO BEGIN
REDUCING EMISSIONS OR TO PLAN FOR MANAGING THE
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ONLY INCREASES THE EVENTUAL
EXPENSE AND URGENCY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF IRREVERSIBLE
LOSSES &URTHERMORE MANY ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN
NOW PROVIDE IMMEDIATE COLLATERAL BENElTS SUCH AS
COST SAVINGS CLEANER AIR AND WATER OR IMPROVED
QUALITY OF LIFE IN OUR COMMUNITIES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-EETING THE #HALLENGES OF #LIMATE #HANGE
,i`ÕVˆ˜}ʓˆÃȜ˜ÃÊLÞÊ-iV̜À
2
EDUCING EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES AND
THUS THE RATE AND EVENTUAL SEVERITY OF CLIMATE
CHANGE COULD FORESTALL MANY OF THE WORST
OUTCOMES 3OME EMISSION REDUCTION MEASURES CAN
BE IMPLEMENTED WITH NO NET COST /THERS INVOLVE NET
COSTS BUT WILL ALSO STIMULATE NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVEL
OPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH JOBS AND OPPORTUNITIES
.ONE OF THE 'REAT ,AKES STATES CURRENTLY HAS
MANDATORY GREENHOUSE GAS REGISTRIES ALTHOUGH 7IS
CONSIN IS DEVELOPING ONE BUT /NTARIO AND ALL THE
STATES EXCEPT -ICHIGAN HAVE INVENTORIES OF THEIR GREEN
HOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOR 4ABLE P /VERALL
œÜÊ
œ˜wÊ`i˜ÌÊ
>˜Ê7iÊiÊLœÕÌÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iÊ
“«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊVœÃÞÃÌi“öÊ
/…iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ>ÃÃՓ«Ìˆœ˜ÃÊ̅>ÌÊ՘`iÀˆiÊ̅iÊ>ÃÈ}˜“i˜ÌʜvÊVœ˜vˆ`i˜ViʏiÛiÃIʈ˜VÕ`i\
%
>˜Êˆ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜Ê>ˆÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiʜvÊxÊ̜ʣÓ$Ê­ÎÊ̜ÊÇ$
®Êˆ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊ>˜`ÊxÊ̜ÊÓä$Ê­ÎÊ̜ʣ£$
®Êˆ˜ÊÊ
Ê
ÃՓ“iÀÊ­…ˆ}…ÊVœ˜vˆ`i˜Vi®°
%
>ÊVœ˜VÕÀÀi˜Ìʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜ÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃÊ>˜`ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜Ãʈ˜ÊˆViÊVœÛiÀʜ˜Ê>Ê>ŽiÃÊ­…ˆ}…Ê
Vœ˜vˆ`i˜Vi®°
%
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜Êˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊ>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}]ÊLÕÌÊ`iVˆ˜iÃʈ˜ÊÃՓ“iÀÊ>˜`Ê>ÕÌՓ˜]Ê«Àœ`ÕVˆ˜}ʓœÃÌÊ
˜œÌ>LÞÊ>Ê}i˜iÀ>Ê`Àވ˜}ʈ˜Ê̅iÊÜÕ̅ÜiÃÌÊ«>ÀÌʜvÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°Ê˜ÊÀi뜘Ãi]ʏiÛiÃʜvÊÃÕÀv>ViÊÜ>ÌiÀ]Ê
}ÀœÕ˜`ÊÜ>ÌiÀ]Ê>˜`Ê܈Ê“œˆÃÌÕÀiÊ>ÀiÊiÝ«iVÌi`Ê̜Ê`Àœ«Êˆ˜ÊÃՓ“iÀÊ­“i`ˆÕ“ÊVœ˜vˆ`i˜Vi®°
%
>ÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜Õi`ʈ˜VÀi>Ãiʈ˜ÊiÝÌÀi“iÊÀ>ˆ˜ÊiÛi˜ÌÃʏ>Ã̈˜}ÊvÀœ“ÊÓ{ʅœÕÀÃÊ̜ÊÇÊ`>ÞÃÊ̅>ÌÊVœÕ`ÊV>ÕÃiÊÊ
Ê
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi`Êvœœ`ˆ˜}Ê­“i`ˆÕ“ÊVœ˜vˆ`i˜Vi®°
/…iÊ«ÀœiVÌi`ʈ“«>VÌÃÊ>ÀiÊۈiÜi`Ê>}>ˆ˜ÃÌÊ̅iÊL>VŽ`Àœ«ÊœvÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜Õi`ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜Ê«œ«Õ>̈œ˜]Ê
ÕÀL>˜ˆâ>̈œ˜]Ê>˜`ʏ>˜`ÃV>«iÊvÀ>}“i˜Ì>̈œ˜Ê>VÀœÃÃÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°ÊœÀÊiÝ>“«i]ÊÕÀL>˜ˆâ>̈œ˜Ê܈Êˆ˜VÀi>ÃiÊ
̅iÊ>Ài>ʜvÊ«>Ûi“i˜ÌÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀʈ“«iÀۈœÕÃÊÃÕÀv>ViÃʈ˜ÊÜ>ÌiÀÅi`Ã]Ê܅ˆV…ʈ˜ÊVœ“Lˆ˜>̈œ˜Ê܈̅Ê
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi`ʏˆŽiˆ…œœ`ʜvÊiÝÌÀi“iÊ`œÜ˜«œÕÀÃÊ܈ÊÀiÃՏÌʈ˜Ê“œÀiÊvœœ`ˆ˜}°Ê
œ˜wÊ`i˜ViÊiÛiÃI
*œÌi˜Ìˆ>Ê“«>VÌÃÊ
œ˜ÊÀi>ÌÊ>ŽiÃÊ
VœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
ˆ}…Ê
œ˜wÊ`i˜Vi
i`ˆÕ“Ê
œ˜wÊ`i˜Vi
VÀœÃÃÊ
Ê-ÞÃÌi“Ã
-ˆ}˜ˆwÊV>˜ÌÊ>ÌiÀ>̈œ˜ÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê̅iÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ̅>ÌÊÜiÊ
viiÊ>ÃÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ>˜`Ê
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊV…>˜}iÃ
iVÀi>Ãiʈ˜ÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“Ê
ÃiÀۈViÃÊ`ÕiÊ̜Ê}Ài>ÌiÀÊ
Û>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞʈ˜Ê>ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜`ÊiVœœ}ˆV>Ê`ÀˆÛiÀÃ
œ˜}iÀÊ}ÀœÜˆ˜}ÊÃi>ܘÃ
>ÀˆiÀÊyʜÜiÀˆ˜}]Ê
LÀii`ˆ˜}]Ê>˜`Ê
i“iÀ}i˜ViʜvÊLˆœÌ>Ê
̅>ÌÊÕÃiÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ
À>̅iÀÊ̅>˜Ê`>Þʏi˜}̅Ê
>ÃÊ>ÊVÕi
ÌiÀi`Ê«Àœ`ÕV̈ۈÌÞÊ>˜`Ê
`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜ÊœvÊ>ÊÛ>ÀˆiÌÞʜvÊ
œÀ}>˜ˆÃ“Ã
œÜiÀÊ
œ˜wÊ`i˜Vi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
*œÌi˜Ìˆ>Ê“«>VÌÃÊ
ˆ}…Ê
œ˜wÊ`i˜Vi
i`ˆÕ“Ê
œ˜wÊ`i˜Vi
œÜiÀÊ
œ˜wÊ`i˜Vi
µÕ>̈VÊ
VœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊÜ>ÌiÀÊ
Ìi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi>ÌÊ
>ŽiÃ]ʈ˜>˜`ʏ>ŽiÃ]ÊÃÌÀi>“Ã]Ê
>˜`ÊÜȉ>˜`Ã
iVÀi>Ãi`ÊÜ>ÌiÀʏiÛiÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê>Ê>µÕ>̈Vʅ>LˆÌ>ÌÃ]Ê
iëiVˆ>Þʈ˜ÊÃՓ“iÀ
˜VÀi>Ãi`Ê
ՏÌÀ>ۈœiÌÊ
À>`ˆ>̈œ˜Ê`>“>}iÊ
̜ʜÀ}>˜ˆÃ“Ãʈ˜Ê
Å>œÜ‡Ü>ÌiÀÊ
>LˆÌ>ÌÃ
iVÀi>ÃiÃʈ˜ÊˆVi‡VœÛiÀÊ
`ÕÀ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊiÝÌi˜Ì
-…ˆvÌÃÊ̜Êi>ÀˆiÀʈVi‡œÕÌÊ`>ÌiÃÊ
>˜`ÊëÀˆ˜}ʓiÌ
ÌiÀi`Ê̈“ˆ˜}ʜvʅÞ`Àœœ}ˆVÊ
yʜÜÃÆʈ˜VÀi>Ãi`ÊÛ>Àˆ>LˆˆÌÞÊ
ˆ˜Ê̈“ˆ˜}]ÊvÀiµÕi˜VÞ]Ê>˜`Ê
`ÕÀ>̈œ˜ÊœvÊ`ˆÃÌÕÀL>˜ViÃ
ÌiÀi`Ê`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜ÃʜvÊ
VÕÀÀi˜ÌÊwÊÅÊëiVˆiÃÊ>˜`Ê
œÌ…iÀÊ>µÕ>̈VʜÀ}>˜ˆÃ“ÃÆÊ
ˆ˜VÀi>Ãi`ʈ˜Û>Ȝ˜ÃÊLÞÊ
˜œ˜˜>̈ÛiÊëiVˆiÃ
/iÀÀiÃÌÀˆ>Ê
VœÃÞÃÌi“Ã
ÌiÀi`Ê«>˜ÌÊ`ˆÃÌÀˆLṎœ˜]Ê
ˆ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}ʘœÀ̅iÀ˜Ê
“œÛi“i˜ÌʜvÊvœÀiÃÌÊëiVˆiÃÊ
,>˜}iÊňvÌÃʈ˜Êˆ˜ÃiVÌÃ]Ê
ˆ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}ÊiÝ«>˜Ãˆœ˜ÃʜvÊ
vœÀiÃÌÊ>˜`Ê>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Ê«iÃÌÊ
ëiVˆiÃÊ­i°}°]Ê}Þ«ÃÞʓœÌ…ÃÊ
>˜`ÊLi>˜Êi>vÊLiȉiî
“«>VÌÃʜ˜ÊVÀœ«Ê>˜`Ê
ˆÛiÃ̜VŽÊÃiV̜ÀÃÊ­³ÊœÀʕ®Ê
܈ÊLiʓœ`iÀ>Ìi`ÊLÞÊ
ÌiV…˜œœ}ˆV>Ê>`Û>˜ViÃÊ>˜`Ê
ÌÀi˜`Ãʈ˜Ê“>ÀŽiÌÊÃiV̜ÀÃ
Փ>˜Ê“«>VÌÃ
-…œÀÌiÀ]ÊÜ>À“iÀÊ܈˜ÌiÀÃÊ
܈ÊÀiÃՏÌʈ˜ÊœÃÃiÃʈ˜Ê܈˜ÌiÀÊ
ÀiVÀi>̈œ˜ÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊΈˆ˜}]ʈViÊ
wÊň˜}]Ê>˜`Ê؜ܓœLˆˆ˜}ÆÊ
«œÃÈLÞʏœ˜}iÀÊÃi>ܘÊvœÀÊ
Ü>À“‡Üi>̅iÀÊÀiVÀi>̈œ˜
˜VÀi>Ãi`Êyʜœ`ˆ˜}Ê
vÀœ“ÊVˆ“>ÌiÊ
ˆ˜ÌiÀ>V̈œ˜ÃÊ܈̅Ê
ÕÀL>˜ˆâ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ʏ>˜`Ê
“>˜>}i“i˜ÌÊ«À>V̈ViÃ
iVÀi>Ãi`ÊÃ>viÊ
LÀii`ˆ˜}ÊÈÌiÃÊvœÀÊ
>“«…ˆLˆ>˜Ã]ʓˆ}À>̜ÀÞÊ
ŜÀiLˆÀ`Ã]Ê>˜`Ê
Ü>ÌiÀvœÜÊ
ÌiÀi`Ê̈“ˆ˜}Ê>˜`Ê
iÝÌi˜Ìʜvʓˆ}À>̈œ˜ÊvœÀÊ
Ü>ÌiÀvœÜ
-…œÀ̇ÌiÀ“ʈ˜VÀi>ÃiÃÊ
ˆ˜ÊvœÀiÃÌÊ}ÀœÜ̅ÊvÀœ“Ê
"ÓÊviÀ̈ˆâ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê
˜ˆÌÀœ}i˜Ê`i«œÃˆÌˆœ˜ÆÊ
œ˜}‡ÌiÀ“Ê}ÀœÜ̅Ê
Ài뜘ÃiÃÊ>ÀiÊ՘Vi>ÀÊ
œÜiÀi`Êvœœ`Ê
>Û>ˆ>LˆˆÌÞÊ̜ʓˆ}À>˜ÌÊ
LˆÀ`Ã]ÊiëiVˆ>ÞÊ
̅œÃiÊ̅>ÌÊ̈“iÊ̅iˆÀÊ
“ˆ}À>̈œ˜ÊLÞÊ`>ޏi˜}̅Ê
À>̅iÀÊ̅>˜ÊÜi>̅iÀ
˜VÀi>Ãi`Ê
ÛՏ˜iÀ>LˆˆÌÞʜvÊ
VÀœ«Êވi`ÃÊ̜Ê
Üi>̅iÀÊiÝÌÀi“iÃÊ
>ÃÊ«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê
ňvÌÃʘœÀ̅Ü>À`]Ê
>Ü>ÞÊvÀœ“Ê«Àˆ“iÊ
«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê>Ài>Ã
Àœ«Êވi`Ãʈ˜Ê̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜Ê
Û>ÀÞÊvÀœ“Ê«œÃˆÌˆÛiʈ˜Ê
˜œÀ̅iÀ˜Ê̜ʘi}>̈Ûiʈ˜Ê
ÜÕ̅iÀ˜Ê>Ài>ÃÊLiV>ÕÃiÊ
œvÊÌi“«iÀ>ÌÕÀiÊ>˜`Ê
«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈œ˜ÊV…>˜}iÃ
˜VÀi>Ãi`ʅi>Ì…Ê
ÀˆÃŽÃÊvÀœ“ÊÀiëˆÀ>̜ÀÞÊ
`ˆÃi>Ãi]ʅi>̇Ài>Ìi`Ê
“œÀLˆ`ˆÌÞʜÀʓœÀÌ>ˆÌÞ]Ê
iÝÌÀi“iÊÜi>̅iÀÊiÛi˜ÌÃ]Ê
>˜`ʈ˜viV̈œÕÃÊ`ˆÃi>ÃiÊ
iVÀi>Ãi`ʅi>Ì…ÊÀˆÃŽÃÊ
vÀœ“ÊVœ`‡Ài>Ìi`Ê
“œÀLˆ`ˆÌÞʜÀʓœÀÌ>ˆÌÞ
IÊ º
œ˜vˆ`i˜Vi»ÊÀiviÀÃÊ̜Ê̅iʏiÛiÊœvÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆvˆVÊViÀÌ>ˆ˜ÌÞÊ>˜`ʈÃÊL>Ãi`ʜ˜ÊiÝ«iÀÌÊ՘`iÀÃÌ>˜`ˆ˜}Ê>˜`ÊÊ Ê
Õ`}“i˜ÌʜvÊVÕÀÀi˜Ìʈ˜vœÀ“>̈œ˜ÊÃÕ««œÀ̈˜}Ê̅iʏˆŽiÞÊiVœœ}ˆV>Êˆ“«>VÌÃʜvÊ̅iÊVˆ“>Ìi‡Ài>Ìi`ÊÊ Ê
V…>˜}iÃÊ`iÃVÀˆLi`Ê>LœÛi°Ê
œ˜vˆ`i˜ViʈÃʘœÌÊÀi>Ìi`Ê̜Ê̅iÊ`i}ÀiiʜvÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“ÊÛՏ˜iÀ>LˆˆÌÞʜÀÊ̅iÊ
Ài>̈ÛiÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVʜÀÊÜVˆ>Êˆ“«œÀÌ>˜ViʜvÊ>Ê«œÌi˜Ìˆ>Êˆ“«>VÌ°ÊʺœÜiÀ»ÊVœ˜vˆ`i˜ViʏiÛiÊ`œiÃʘœÌÊ
ˆ“«ÞÊ̅>ÌÊ̅iÊV…>˜}iʈÃÊ՘ˆŽiÞʜÀÊ̅>ÌÊ̅iʈ“«>VÌÊ܈ÊLiÊÓ>°
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-EETING THE #HALLENGES OF #LIMATE #HANGE
/ÊnÊÊÊ/œÌ>ÊÀii˜…œÕÃiÊ>ÃʓˆÃȜ˜ÃÊLÞÊ-Ì>ÌiÉ*ÀœÛˆ˜ViÊ>˜`Ê-iV̜ÀÊ­£™™ä®
/œÌ>ÊÊ­ˆ˜Êˆˆœ˜ÊiÌÀˆVÊ/œ˜ÃʜvÊ
>ÀLœ˜ÊµÕˆÛ>i˜Ìp/
®ÊvœÀÊ£™™äÊ-Ì>ÌiÉ*ÀœÛˆ˜Vi­>®
-
/",Ê
9
"
*
7
" /
˜iÀ}ÞʇÊ,iÈ`i˜Ìˆ>Ê
È°™
Ó°È
Ó°£
n°x
x°È
È°Ó
Ó°È
{°™­L®
˜iÀ}ÞʇÊ
œ““iÀVˆ>Ê
ΰ{
£°{
£°{
È°x
Ó°n
롊
£°Î
Ó°x
˜iÀ}Þʇʘ`ÕÃÌÀˆ>Ê
£{°Ç
£x°Ó
Ó°Î
{°x
£x°Ç
£È°n
ΰÎ
££°{
˜iÀ}ÞʇÊ/À>˜Ã«œÀÌÊ
£x°nÊ
££°Ó
Ç°Ó
ÓÓ°x
£x°Ó
£x°{
È°È
£Î°£
˜iÀ}ÞʇÊ1̈ˆÌÞÊ
£x°ÇÊ
Óx°È
Ç°™
£™°£
룡{
Ó{°Ó
n°™
Ç°£
I
I
I
I
I
I
ÊIÊ
I
˜iÀ}ÞʇÊ"̅iÀÊ
‡Ó°Î£
£°ä
ä°x
£°Ó
È°Î
I
ä°n
ÊI
/œÌ>Ê˜iÀ}ÞÊ
xÈ°È
xÇ°ä
Ó£°Î
ÈÓ°Î
ÇÈ°™
Èn°Î
Óΰ{
Ι
7>ÃÌiÊ
È°™
£°Ç
£°Ó
££°È
££°Î
ΰÈ
䰙
Ó
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀiÊ
Ó°Î
£°n
Ó°x
䰙
£°Ç
ΰÎ
Ó°x
ΰÎ
˜`ÕÃÌÀÞÊ
ä°Î
£°ä
I
䰙
ä°È
ä°Ç
ä°£
{°£
>˜`Ê1ÃiÊ
ä°äÓ
‡ä°{
‡Ó°{
I
‡£°È
ä°£
ä°Ó
ä°Î
ÈÈ°£
È£°Î
ÓÓ°x
Çx°Ç
nn°™
ÇÈ°ä
ÓÇ°£
{n°Ç
x°n
££°ä
x°£
{°Ó
n°Ó
È°{
x°x
{°n
˜iÀ}ÞʇÊÝ«œÀÌi`ʏiVÌÀˆVˆÌÞÊ
/"/Ê
*,Ê
*/Ê
­V®
-œÕÀViÃ\Ê-iiʘœÌiÊ£nÓ°Ê
œÌiÃ\ʘÊ>ÃÌiÀˆÃŽÊ­I®Êˆ˜`ˆV>ÌiÃÊ̅>ÌÊÊi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊvÀœ“Ê̅ˆÃÊÃiV̜ÀÊÜiÀiÊâiÀœ]ʈ˜Ãˆ}˜ˆwÊV>˜Ì]ʜÀʘœÌÊÀi«œÀÌi`°
­>®Ê1-Ê>˜`Ê
>˜>`ˆ>˜Êʈ˜Ûi˜ÌœÀÞʓi̅œ`œœ}ˆiÃʘœÌʘiViÃÃ>ÀˆÞÊVœ“«>À>LiÆʘœÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ãʈ˜vœÀ“>̈œ˜Ê>Û>ˆ>LiÊvœÀÊ
­L®Ê,iÈ`i˜Ìˆ>Ê>˜`Ê>}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀ>Êi˜iÀ}ÞÊÕÃiÊVœ“Lˆ˜i`ʈ˜Ê
>˜>`ˆ>˜Êʈ˜Ûi˜ÌœÀÞ
­V®ÊÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ãʈ˜Ê/
Ê«iÀʓˆˆœ˜Ê«œ«Õ>̈œ˜°ÊÛiÀ>}iÊ«iÀÊV>«ˆÌ>Êi“ˆÃȜ˜Ãʈ˜Ê£™™xʈ˜Ê̅iÊ1-ÊÜ>ÃÊÈ°ÈÊ>˜`ʈ˜Ê
>˜>`>ÊÜ>ÃÊÈ°ä°Ê
ÊÊÊÊÊ
>˜>`ˆ>˜Ê«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê`>Ì>ÊvÀœ“Ê£™™£°Ê
EMISSIONS HAVE INCREASED IN EVERY STATE AND PROVINCE
SINCE BUT THESE INVENTORIESˆWHILE NOT ALWAYS
PERFECTLY ACCURATEˆOFFER A STARTING POINT TO IDENTIFY
OPPORTUNITIES FOR REDUCING THE OUTPUT OF HEATTRAPPING
GASES )N FACT #ANADA IN RATIlED THE +YOTO
0ROTOCOL AND MADE A COMMITMENT TO REDUCE COUNTRY
WIDE EMISSIONS BY ABOUT PERCENT BELOW LEVELS
BY n
1,ÊÎx
&AR AND AWAY THE
ˆ˜˜iÜÌ>Ê7ˆ˜`Ê>À“
MAJOR SOURCES OF EMIS
SIONS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION ARE THE UTILITIES
AND TRANSPORTATION SEC
TORS FOLLOWED BY ENERGY
USE IN THE INDUSTRIAL SEC
TOR EMISSIONS FROM LAND
lLLS AND WASTE INCINERA
TORS AND OTHER LOCALLY
IMPORTANT SOURCES SUCH
AS COMMERCIAL AGRICUL
-iiÊ«>}iÊx£
TURAL OR RESIDENTIAL SEC
TORS 4HERE ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION REDUCTIONS
IN ALL THESE SECTORS -OREOVER CHANGES IN FORESTRY
PRACTICES AND AGRICULTURAL SOIL MANAGEMENT OFFER THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDUCING EMISSIONS AND SEQUESTERING
CARBON A PROCESS THAT CAN BE THOUGHT OF AS hNEGATIVE
EMISSIONSv
˜iÀ}Þ
/PPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN THE ENERGY
SECTOR INCLUDE
s )NCREASING ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND CONSERVATION IN
INDUSTRY AND BY CONSUMERS USING BOTH TECHNOLOG
ICAL AND BEHAVIORAL CHANGES
s )NCREASING THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY PRODUCED FROM
RENEWABLE POWER SOURCES SUCH AS WIND SOLAR AND
ORGANIC WASTES
s 3WITCHING FROM CARBONINTENSIVE ENERGY SOURCES
SUCH AS COAL TO NATURAL GAS AND BIOFUELS
s !CHIEVING MORE EFFICIENT FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION
OF ELECTRICITY
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
3EVERAL 'REAT ,AKES STATES AND /NTARIO CURRENTLY
/À>˜Ã«œÀÌ>̈œ˜
EMPLOY SOME OF THESE STRATEGIES AND CAN SERVE AS MODELS
/PPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN THE TRANS
FOR OTHERS )N )NDIANA FOR EXAMPLE THE )NDUSTRIAL
PORTATION SECTOR INCLUDE
%NERGY %FlCIENCY &UND PROVIDES ZEROINTEREST LOANS
s )NCREASING THE EFlCIENCY OF CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES
TO INCREASE THE ENERGY EFlCIENCY OF MANUFACTURING
s )NTRODUCING HYBRID AND FUEL CELL CARS
PROCESSES -INNESOTA AND 7ISCONSIN HAVE ESTAB
s $EVELOPING LOWCARBON FUELS SUCH AS ETHANOL
LISHED TARGETS AND TIMETABLES FOR INCREASING ELECTRICITY
s 2EDUCING THE NUMBER OF MILES DRIVEN IN PART
PRODUCTION FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY AND TOGETHER WITH
THROUGH ANTISPRAWL PLANNING AND BETTER PUBLIC
)LLINOIS AND .EW 9ORK ARE ALSO lNANCING INVESTMENTS
TRANSPORTATION
1,ÊÎÈ
IN RENEWABLE ENERGY AND EFlCIENCY FOR HOMES AND
&UEL ECONOMY #!&% ˆ˜œˆÃÊÕiÊ
iÊÕÃ
BUSINESSES
STANDARDS ARE SET AT THE
-OST 'REAT ,AKES STATES HAVE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE
NATIONAL LEVEL 7HILE
WIND ENERGY RESOURCES -INNESOTA IS ALREADY THE THIRD
THE 5NITED 3TATES HAS
LARGEST WIND POWER PRODUCER IN THE NATION &IGURE
HAD MANDATORY STAN
AND NEW WIND PROJECTS ARE BEING BUILT IN )LLINOIS
DARDS IN PLACE SINCE THE
-ICHIGAN .EW 9ORK AND IN /NTARIO )LLINOIS
OIL CRISES OF #AN
HAS THE TECHNICAL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PERCENT OF
ADA CURRENTLY HAS ONLY A
ITS ELECTRICITY NEEDS BASED ON USAGE FROM ITS
VOLUNTARY FUEL EFlCIEN
WIND RESOURCES AND PERCENT FROM ITS BIOENERGY
CY INITIATIVE AND LEVELS
RESOURCES
MIMIC THOSE IN THE -iiÊ«>}iÊx£
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
! RECENT STUDY SHOWS /NTARIO CAN PRACTICALLY
5NITED 3TATES 2AISING
AND ECONOMICALLY REDUCE ENERGY WASTE AND GENERATE
THE #!&% STANDARD OVER THE NEXT YEARS TO MILES
ENOUGH GREEN ENERGY FOR THE PROVINCE TO PHASE OUT
PER GALLON FOR NEW CARS AND LIGHTTRUCKS WOULD TAKE
ALL lVE OF ITS COALlRED POWER PLANTS 4HE APPROACH
ADVANTAGE OF THE TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR TECHNO
WOULD INVOLVE DEMANDSIDE MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS
LOGICAL INNOVATION AND COULD SAVE 53 DRIVERS BILLIONS
THAT INCREASE ENERGY EFlCIENCY SHIFT SUBSIDIES AWAY
OF DOLLARS AT THE FUEL PUMP WHILE REDUCING MILLIONS
FROM FOSSIL FUELnDERIVED ENERGY TOWARD SUPPORT OF
OF TONS OF HEATTRAPPING GASES SMOGFORMING POLLUT
RENEWABLE ENERGY AND REFORM ELEC
ANTS AND OTHER TOXIC EMISSIONS
TRICITY PRICES TO REmECT THEIR REAL
ˆ˜˜iÜÌ>Ê>˜`Ê7ˆÃVœ˜Ãˆ˜Ê !LTHOUGH THE FEDERAL %NERGY 0OLICY
COST TO HUMAN HEALTH AND THE EN
!CT OF REQUIRED STATE GOVERN
vˆ˜>˜Viʈ˜ÛiÃ̓i˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê
VIRONMENT
MENT mEETS TO PURCHASE ALTERNA
$EVELOPING THESE ALTERNATIVE
Ài˜iÜ>LiÊi˜iÀ}ÞÊ>˜`Ê
TIVE FUEL VEHICLES FEW STATE GOVERN
ENERGY RESOURCES PROMISES A NUM
ivvˆVˆi˜VÞÊvœÀʅœ“iÃÊ>˜`Ê MENTS ACTUALLY FULlLL THIS REQUIRE
BER OF BENElTS ! STUDY BY THE %N
MENT !N EXCEPTION IS -INNE
LÕȘiÃÃið
VIRONMENTAL ,AW AND 0OLICY #EN
SOTA WHICH HAS DEVELOPED STATE
TER EXAMINED THE IMPACTS OF VEHICLE mEET EFlCIENCY STANDARDS
PERCENT USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE 53 STATES OF THE
)NDIANA ENCOURAGES THE BUILDING OF ALTERNATIVE FUELING
REGION BY )T FOUND THAT #/ EMISSIONS COULD
SITES THROUGH ITS !LTERNATIVE &UEL 6EHICLE )NFRASTRUCTURE
BE CUT IN HALF WHILE INCREASING ELECTRICITY COSTS BY
0ROGRAM &IGURE ONLY PERCENT IN AND PERCENT IN %VEN AT LOCAL SCALES TRAVELREDUCTION STRATEGIES
!DDITIONAL BENElTS WOULD INCLUDE REDUCING AIR EMIS
INCLUDING RIDESHARE TELECOMMUTING BICYCLE AND
SIONS OF SULFUR DIOXIDE AND NITROGEN OXIDES CREATING
PEDESTRIAN PROGRAMS TRANSIT PROMOTION AND PARKING
NEW JOBS AND GENERATING BILLION 53
MANAGEMENT CAN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BENElTS SUCH AS
IN ADDITIONAL INCOME
EMISSION REDUCTIONS HEALTHIER AIR AND HIGHER QUALITY
OF LIFE ,ARGE CITIES WITH HEAVY COMMUTER TRAFlC
SUCH AS #HICAGO $ETROIT AND 4ORONTO ARE PARTICU
LARLY AMENABLE TO SUCH IMPROVEMENTS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-EETING THE #HALLENGES OF #LIMATE #HANGE
/œÀœ˜Ìœ\ÊÊi>`iÀʓœ˜}Ê
ˆÌˆiÃÊ
ˆ˜Ê,i`ÕVˆ˜}ÊÀii˜…œÕÃiÊ>ÃʓˆÃȜ˜Ã
7
ˆiʘ>̈œ˜Ã]ÊÃÌ>ÌiÃ]Ê>˜`Ê«ÀœÛˆ˜ViÃÊVœ˜Ìˆ˜ÕiÊ̜Ê`iL>ÌiÊ̅iÊiVœ˜œ“ˆVÊ܈Ã`œ“ÊœvÊÀi`ÕVˆ˜}Ê
}Àii˜…œÕÃiÊ}>ÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ã]ʎiÞÊVˆÌˆiÃÊ>VÀœÃÃÊ œÀ̅ʓiÀˆV>ʅ>ÛiÊÌ>Ži˜Ê̅iʏi>`ʈ˜ÊŜ܈˜}Ê
̅>ÌÊVÕÌ̈˜}ÊV>ÀLœ˜Êi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊV>˜Ê˜œÌʜ˜ÞÊÃ>ÛiÊi˜iÀ}ÞÊLÕÌÊ>ÃœÊ}i˜iÀ>ÌiÊÀiÛi˜Õi°Ê"˜iÊ
œvÊ̅iÊvˆÀÃÌʏœV>Ê}œÛiÀ˜“i˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊܜÀ`Ê̜ÊVœ““ˆÌÊ̜ÊۜÕ˜Ì>ÀÞÊVÕÌÃʈ˜Ê}Àii˜…œÕÃiÊ}>ÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ã]Ê>˜`Ê
œ˜iʜvÊ̅iʓœÃÌÊÃÕVViÃÃvՏ]ʈÃÊ/œÀœ˜Ìœ°Ê˜Ê£™™ä]Ê
>˜>`>½Ãʏ>À}iÃÌÊVˆÌÞÊVœ““ˆÌÌi`Ê̜Ê>Ê}œ>ÊœvÊÀi`ÕVˆ˜}ʈÌÃÊ
i“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊÓäÊ«iÀVi˜ÌÊLiœÜÊ£™nnq£™™äʏiÛiÃÊLÞÊÓääx°ÊÞÊ£™™n]Ê/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ…>`Ê>Ài>`ÞÊiÝVii`i`ʈÌÃÊ
ÓääxÊ}œ>Ê“œÀiÊ̅>˜Ê̅ÀiiÊ̈“iÃʜÛiÀ]Ê>V…ˆiۈ˜}Êi“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜ÃʜvÊÈÇÊ«iÀVi˜ÌÊLiœÜÊ£™™äÊ
iÛiÃ°Ê/…>ÌÊÀi«ÀiÃi˜ÌÃÊ>Ê`Àœ«ÊvÀœ“ÊÓ°Îʓˆˆœ˜Ê̜˜ÃʜvÊV>ÀLœ˜Ê`ˆœÝˆ`iÊÀii>Ãi`ʈ˜ÌœÊ̅iÊ>̓œÃ«…iÀiÊ
̜ÊÇÈx]äääÊ̜˜ÃÊÀii>Ãi`]ʜ˜iʜvÊ̅iʏ>À}iÃÌÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜ÃÊ>V…ˆiÛi`Ê>˜Þ܅iÀiʈ˜Ê
>˜>`>°
/œÀœ˜ÌœÊÕÃi`Ê>Ê܈`iÊÀ>˜}iʜvʓi>ÃÕÀiÃÊ̜Ê>V…ˆiÛiʈÌÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ê}œ>Ã\ʈ“«ÀœÛˆ˜}Ê̅iÊi˜iÀ}ÞÊivvˆVˆi˜VÞʜvÊ
VˆÌÞÊLՈ`ˆ˜}ÃÊ>˜`ÊÃÌÀiȉˆ}…ÌÃÊ­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÎÇ>®]ʈ“«ÀœÛˆ˜}Êi˜iÀ}ÞÊivvˆVˆi˜VÞÊ>˜`ÊÃ܈ÌV…ˆ˜}Ê̜Ê>ÌiÀ˜>̈ÛiÊ
vÕiÃÊvœÀʈÌÃÊÛi…ˆViÊviiÌ]Ê«ÀœVÕÀˆ˜}Ê>˜`Ê`iÛiœ«ˆ˜}ʺ}Àii˜»Ê«œÜiÀÊÜÕÀViÃ]Ê>˜`ÊV>«ÌÕÀˆ˜}ʏ>˜`vˆÊ
}>ÃiÃÊvœÀÊÕÃiʈ˜Ê«œÜiÀÊ«Àœ`ÕV̈œ˜Ê­ˆ}ÕÀiÊÎÇL®°Ê/…iÊ
1,ÊÎÇ
ˆÌÞÊ>]Ê/œÀœ˜Ìœ
>ÌÌiÀÊÃÌÀ>Ìi}Þ]ʈ˜Êv>VÌ]Ê«Àœ`ÕVi`Ê̅iÊ}Ài>ÌiÃÌÊÀi`ÕV‡
̈œ˜Êˆ˜Êi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ>˜`Ê>ÃœÊ}i˜iÀ>ÌiÃÊfÓ°xʓˆˆœ˜Ê
­
`˜®Êˆ˜ÊÞi>ÀÞʈ˜Vœ“iÊvœÀÊ̅iÊVˆÌްʏ̅œÕ}…Êi˜iÀ}ÞÊ
ivvˆVˆi˜VÞʓi>ÃÕÀiÃÊÀiÃՏÌi`ʈ˜Ê“ÕV…ÊÓ>iÀÊi“ˆÃ‡
Ȝ˜ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜Ã]Ê̅iÞÊÃ>ÛiÊ̅iÊVˆÌÞÊf£äʓˆˆœ˜Ê
­
`˜®Êˆ˜Êi˜iÀ}ÞÊVœÃÌÃÊi>V…ÊÞi>À°
/œÊ…i«Ê«>ÞÊvœÀÊ̅iÊ«Àœ}À>“Ê>˜`Êi`ÕV>ÌiÊ̅iÊ«ÕLˆVÊ
>LœÕÌʈÌÃÊ}œ>Ã]Ê̅iÊVˆÌÞʈ˜Ê£™™£ÊVœ˜ÌÀˆLÕÌi`ÊfÓÎÊ
“ˆˆœ˜Ê­
`˜®Êˆ˜ÊÀiÛi˜ÕiÃÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊÃ>iʜvÊVˆÌÞÊ«Àœ«‡
-iiÊ«>}iÊx£
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
1,ÊÎÇ
/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ-…œÜÃÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ-œṎœ˜ÃÊ
i>`iÀň«
iÀÌÞÊ̜ÊÃiÌÊÕ«Ê̅iÊ/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ̓œÃ«…iÀˆVÊ՘`Ê­/®°Ê
7…ˆiʓ>˜ÞÊVˆÌˆiÃÊ>ÀœÕ˜`Ê̅iÊܜÀ`ʅ>ÛiÊVœ““ˆÌÌi`Ê
̜Ê}Àii˜…œÕÃiÊ}>ÃÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜Ã]Ê/œÀœ˜ÌœÊÀi“>ˆ˜ÃÊ̅iÊ
œ˜Þʜ˜iÊ̅>Ìʅ>ÃÊVÀi>Ìi`Ê>˜Êˆ˜`i«i˜`i˜ÌÊ>}i˜VÞÊ̜Ê
v՘`ÊÃÕV…Ê«ÀœiVÌðÊ/‡Ã«œ˜ÃœÀi`Ê«ÀœiVÌÃÊ̜Ê`>ÌiÊ
>ÛiÊvˆ˜>˜Vi`Êi“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜ÃʜvʓœÀiÊ̅>˜Ê
ÓÓx]äääÊ̜˜Ã]ÊÃ>Ûi`Ê̅iÊVˆÌÞÊfÓ°Çʓˆˆœ˜Ê­
`˜®Ê>Ê
Þi>Àʈ˜Êi˜iÀ}ÞÊ>˜`ʓ>ˆ˜Ìi˜>˜ViÊVœÃÌÃ]Ê>˜`ʍՓ«‡
ÃÌ>ÀÌi`ʜÀ}>˜ˆâ>̈œ˜ÃÊÃÕV…Ê>ÃÊÀii˜f>ÛiÀ]ÊÀii˜iÃÌÊ
ˆÌÞ]Ê̅iÊ/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ,i˜iÜ>LiʘiÀ}ÞÊ
œœ«iÀ>̈Ûi]Ê>˜`Ê
̅iʏ>VŽÊ
ÀiiŽÊ,i}ˆœ˜>Ê/À>˜Ã«œÀÌ>̈œ˜Ê>˜>}i‡
“i˜ÌÊÃÜVˆ>̈œ˜°Ê“œ˜}ʈÌÃʜ̅iÀʈ˜ˆÌˆ>̈ÛiÃ]Ê/Ê
>ÃœÊ…œ`ÃÊ>˜Ê>˜˜Õ>Ê-“œ}Ê-Փ“ˆÌÊ>˜`Êv՘`ÃÊÃÌÕ`ˆiÃÊ
-iiÊ«>}iÊx£
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
œ˜ÊÌÀ>˜Ã«œÀÌ>̈œ˜Ê>˜`ÊÓ>ÀÌÊ}ÀœÜ̅ʈÃÃÕiðÊ/Ê
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
LiˆiÛiÃÊ̅>ÌÊ/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ…>ÃÊ̅iÊ«œÌi˜Ìˆ>Ê̜Ê>V…ˆiÛiÊ>˜œÌ…iÀÊΣʫiÀVi˜ÌÊi“ˆÃȜ˜ÊÀi`ÕV̈œ˜ÃÊLiÌÜii˜Ê
£™™nÊ>˜`ÊÓä£ä°£™£
œÀiÊ̅>˜ÊxääÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiÃÊܜÀ`܈`i]ʈ˜VÕ`ˆ˜}Ê£ääʈ˜Ê̅iÊ1˜ˆÌi`Ê-Ì>ÌiÃ]ʅ>Ûiʍœˆ˜i`Ê/œÀœ˜ÌœÊ
>ÃÊ«>À̈Vˆ«>˜ÌÃʈ˜Ê̅iÊ
ˆÌˆiÃÊvœÀÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ*ÀœÌiV̈œ˜Ê
>“«>ˆ}˜ÊœvÊ̅iʘÌiÀ˜>̈œ˜>Ê
œÕ˜VˆÊvœÀʜV>Ê
˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì>Ê˜ˆÌˆ>̈ÛiðÊ/œ}i̅iÀÊ̅iÃiʏœV>ÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiÃ]Ê܅ˆV…ÊVœiV̈ÛiÞÊ>VVœÕ˜ÌÊvœÀÊnÊ
«iÀVi˜ÌʜvÊ}œL>Ê}Àii˜…œÕÃiÊ}>ÃÊi“ˆÃȜ˜Ã]Ê>ÀiʘœÌʜ˜ÞÊVÕÌ̈˜}Ê̅iˆÀÊi“ˆÃȜ˜ÃÊ>˜`Ê«ˆœ˜iiÀˆ˜}Ê
VœÃ̇ivviV̈ÛiÊÃÌÀ>Ìi}ˆiÃÊvœÀÊÀi`ÕVˆ˜}Ê̅iˆÀʈ“«>VÌʜ˜Ê̅iÊ}œL>ÊVˆ“>Ìi]ÊLÕÌÊ>ÃœÊÃiÌ̈˜}ÊiÝ>“«iÃÊ
vœÀʘ>̈œ˜ÃÊ̜ÊvœœÜ°Ê
7>ÃÌiÊ>˜>}i“i˜Ì
/PPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION REDUCTION IN THE WASTE
MANAGEMENT SECTOR INCLUDE
s 7ASTE AVOIDANCE
s 7ASTE RECOVERY AND RECYCLING INCLUDING USE OF
WASTE FOR BIOMASS ENERGY
s #APTURE OF METHANE EMISSIONS
!GAIN SEVERAL 'REAT ,AKES STATES AND /NTARIO HAVE
PROGRAMS THAT COULD BE EMULATED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION )NDIANA FOR EXAMPLE HAS A 2ECYCLING -ARKET
$EVELOPMENT 0ROGRAM THAT AIMS TO BOOST RECYCLING
RATES AND THE PURCHASE OF RECYCLED PRODUCTS )N METHANE
RECAPTURE /NTARIOS #ITY OF 7ELLAND ,ANDlLL 'AS
2ECOVERY 0ROGRAM CURRENTLY COLLECTS AND DESTROYS
MORE THAN TONS OF METHANE PER YEARˆTHE
EQUIVALENT OF TAKING CARS OFF THE ROAD
œÀiÃÌÀÞÊ>˜`Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
/PPORTUNITIES FOR EMISSION AVOIDANCE AND CARBON
CAPTURE IN FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURAL LAND USE INCLUDE
s &OREST PROTECTION
s 2EFORESTATION OR AFFORESTATION
s 3USTAINABLE SOIL MANAGEMENT TO INCREASE CARBON
SEQUESTRATION
&ORESTRY OPPORTUNITIES MAY BE PARTICULARLY RELEVANT IN
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH OTHER AREAS
COULD ALSO BENElT &OR EXAMPLE -INNESOTAS 2E,EAF
0ROGRAM PROMOTES AND FUNDS THE PLANTING AND MAIN
TENANCE OF TREES AS A MEANS TO STORE CARBON AND SAVE
ENERGY 3EVERAL OTHER FOREST CARBON SEQUESTRATION
PROJECTS ARE UNDER WAY IN )NDIANA /HIO AND /NTARIO
)N 7ISCONSIN SEVERAL PROJECTS ON LAND OWNED OR
MANAGED BY 4HE .ATURE #ONSERVANCY ARE FUNDED
BY UTILITIES NEEDING TO OFFSET #/ EMISSIONS -AIN
TAINING AND INCREASING URBAN TREE COVER IS BECOMING
MORE IMPORTANT BOTH FOR STORING CARBON AND FOR
REDUCING THE URBAN hHEAT ISLANDv EFFECT THAT INTEN
SIlES SUMMER HEAT
)N THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR NUMEROUS STUDIES HAVE
SHOWN THAT CERTAIN BEST PRACTICES IN SOIL MANAGEMENT
SUCH AS NO TILL LOW INPUT AND USE OF COVER CROPS CAN
ENHANCE SHORTTERM SOIL CARBON SEQUESTRATION )N ADDI
TION THE %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY SUPPORTS
SEVERAL PROGRAMS THAT CAN REDUCE METHANE EMISSIONS
FROM LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK WASTES SUCH AS THE
!G34!2 0ROGRAM AND THE 2UMINANT ,IVESTOCK
%FlCIENCY 0ROGRAM
˜Ìi}À>Ìi`ʓˆÃȜ˜Ê-ÌÀ>Ìi}ˆiÃ
3EVERAL STATES IN THE REGION HAVE COMPREHENSIVE
CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLANS !LL WILL REQUIRE STRONG
SUPPORT FOR IMPLEMENTATION HOWEVER AND NONE
SPECIlES REDUCTION TARGETS BY CERTAIN DATES 3IMILARLY
AT LEAST !MERICAN MUNICIPALITIES IN THE REGION HAVE
COMMITTED THEMSELVES TO LOCAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS
THROUGH THE )NTERNATIONAL #ITIES FOR #LIMATE 0ROTEC
TION #AMPAIGN )N /NTARIO MORE THAN MUNICI
PALITIES PARTICIPATE IN THE 0ARTNERS FOR #LIMATE 0ROTEC
TION PROGRAM OF THE &EDERATION OF #ANADIAN -UNI
CIPALITIES SEE BOX OPPOSITE
!NOTHER POSSIBLE STRATEGY FOR REDUCING EMISSIONS
COSTEFFECTIVELY IS THROUGH CARBON CREDITS AND TRADING
4HE 53 LEADER IN DEVELOPING VOLUNTARY CARBONTRADING
STRATEGIES IS THE #HICAGO #LIMATE %XCHANGE )N
#ANADA THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENTS 4RADABLE 0ERMITS
7ORKING 'ROUP HAS SET UP A PROTOTYPE TRADING SYS
TEM IN /NTARIO WHICH COULD BE ADAPTED IN THE FUTURE
TO INCLUDE HEATTRAPPING GASES )N ANTICIPATION OF
THIS UTILITIES HAVE BEGUN TO PURCHASE EMISSIONREDUC
TION CREDITS FROM ELSEWHERE TO OFFSET THEIR OWN #/
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-EETING THE #HALLENGES OF #LIMATE #HANGE
1,ÊÎn
EMISSIONS 4HUS TIMELY
RESEARCH AND DEVELOP
MENT ACTIVITIES COULD
POSITION THE 'REAT
,AKES REGION AS A LEADER
IN THE EMERGING CARBON
TRADING MARKET 0RINCI
PLES GUIDING EFFECTIVE
EMISSIONS TRADING HAVE
YET TO BE DEVELOPED IN
BOTH THE 5NITED 3TATES
-iiÊ«>}iÊxÓ
AND #ANADA )N GEN
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
ERAL EFFECTIVE EMISSIONS
TRADING SYSTEMS SHARE SEVERAL TRAITS !T MINIMUM THEY
ARE FAIR BY REWARDING LEADERS RATHER THAN LAGGARDS
THEY ARE COSTEFFECTIVE AND THEY LEAD TO ACTUAL EMIS
ˆ˜ˆ“ˆâˆ˜}Ê-«À>܏
SION REDUCTIONS THROUGH ABSOLUTE PROGRESSIVELY
LOWERED CAPS ON EMISSIONS
3CIENTIlC EVIDENCE DEMONSTRATES THAT THE MOST
DESIRABLE APPROACHES TO REDUCING EMISSIONS NOT ONLY
ACHIEVE REAL CLIMATE BENElTS BUT ALSO AVOID EXACERBAT
ING OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS 0OLICYMAKERS HAVE
TO AGREE ON PRINCIPLES THAT DElNE BEST PRACTICES SUCH
AS THE FOLLOWING &IRST THE RESULTS OF EMISSIONS REDUC
TION EFFORTS ARE EASILY VERIlED AND ENSURE THAT CARBON
IS STORED PERMANENTLY 3ECOND EMISSION REDUCTION
APPROACHES GO BEYOND STANDARD PRACTICES AND EXISTING
REGULATIONS 4HIRD PROJECTS MUST MINIMIZE AND
ACCOUNT FOR LEAKAGE OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE PROJECT
MAY SIMPLY DISPLACE EMISSIONS ELSEWHERE &INALLY
FORESTBASED PROJECTS FOR CLIMATE SHOULD ENHANCE
AND NOT DETRACT FROM BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION
ˆ˜ˆ“ˆâˆ˜}ÊՓ>˜Ê*ÀiÃÃÕÀiÃʜ˜Ê̅iʘۈÀœ˜“i˜Ì
2
SIGNIlCANT UTILITY SAVINGS REDUCTIONS IN ENERGY USE
AND POLLUTION AN EXPANDED TRANSIT SERVICE AND BIKE
PATH NETWORK GREATER TREE COVER AND REDUCED AIR
POLLUTION
ˆÀÊ+Õ>ˆÌÞʓ«ÀœÛi“i˜ÌÃ
!IR POLLUTANTS SUCH AS OZONE DAMAGE THE NATURAL
ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS HUMAN HEALTH AND CROPS 3TRAT
EGIES TO REDUCE HEATTRAPPING GAS EMISSIONS WHETHER
FROM COALlRED POWER PLANTS OR COMMUTER TRAFlC
HAVE THE ANCILLARY BENElT OF REDUCING AIR POLLUTION
)N /NTARIO ALONE AIR POLLUTION CLAIMS THE LIVES OF AN
ESTIMATED PEOPLE A YEAR AND COSTS THE MEDICAL
SYSTEM ABOUT BILLION #DN ANNUALLY ACCORDING
TO AN ANALYSIS BY THE /NTARIO -EDICAL !SSOCIATION
2ECOGNIZING THIS PROBLEM THE CITY OF -ISSISSAUGA IN
SOUTHERN /NTARIOS INDUSTRIAL AND COMMUTER BELT ES
TABLISHED IN THE -ISSISSAUGA !IR 1UALITY !DVISORY
#OMMITTEE WHICH IMPLEMENTED A COMPREHENSIVE AIR
QUALITY IMPROVEMENT PLAN 4HE RESULTS HAVE INCLUDED
7>ÌiÀÊ+Õ>ˆÌÞÊ*ÀœÌiV̈œ˜Ê
>˜`Êi“>˜`É-Õ««ÞÊ>˜>}i“i˜Ì
0ROTECTING GROUND AND SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES AS WELL
AS THE ECOLOGICAL QUALITY OF AQUATIC HABITATS AND THE
SPECIES THAT LIVE IN THEM OFFERS BENElTS FOR HUMAN
HEALTH AND WELLBEING IN THE WATERRICH 'REAT ,AKES
REGION 7ATER MANAGEMENT AND CONSERVATION EFFORTS
ALSO INCREASE THE RELIABILITY OF SUPPLIES FOR ECONOMIC
SECTORS AND INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON STEADY AVAILABIL
ITY OF HIGHQUALITY WATER +EY WATER QUALITY IMPROVE
MENTS THAT NEED TO BE MORE WIDELY IMPLEMENTED IN
CLUDE EFFORTS TO UPGRADE SEWER AND SEPTIC SYSTEMS AND
TO CONTAIN NONPOINT POLLUTION FROM ROADS FARMLAND
AND OTHER DISPERSED SOURCES -ANY SMALLER 'REAT
,AKES COMMUNITIES STILL HAVE SEWER OUTmOW SYSTEMS
THAT RELEASE UNTREATED SEWAGE AND INDUSTRIAL WASTE
DIRECTLY INTO SURFACE WATER BODIES DURING STORM EVENTS
THAT OVERWHELM THE CAPACITY OF LOCAL WATER TREATMENT
FACILITIES )F THE FREQUENCY OF HEAVY RAIN EVENTS INCREASES
IN THE FUTURE THAT WILL INCREASE THE URGENCY OF TECH
NOLOGICAL UPGRADES TO THESE SYSTEMS TO PREVENT WATER
EDUCING OR MINIMIZING HUMAN PRESSURES ON
THE ENVIRONMENT OFTEN RESULTS IN LONGTERM
ECONOMIC BENElTS THAT OUTWEIGH THE INITIAL
COST 4HESE BENElTS INCLUDE mOOD PROTECTION HUMAN
HEALTH BENElTS FROM WATER AND AIR PURIlCATION IM
PROVED AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTRY PRODUCTIVITY WATER
SUPPLY SECURITY SAFEGUARDING OF HABITAT FOR NATIVE
PLANTS AND ANIMALS AESTHETIC BENElTS AND RECREATION
AL OPPORTUNITIES 4HE FOLLOWING ARE KEY STRATEGIES FOR
REDUCING HUMAN STRESSES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
AND FOODBORNE DISEASES AND ALSO TO PROTECT PEOPLE
FROM ILLNESSES CONTRACTED DURING RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
SUCH AS SWIMMING BOATING AND lSHING
7ATER SUPPLY CONCERNS IN THE REGION CAN BE AD
DRESSED BY DEVELOPING MORE EFFECTIVE WATERCONSERVA
TION STRATEGIES FOR USE DURING SUMMER MONTHS AND IN
WATERINTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL AND INDUSTRIAL OPERATIONS
! MORE CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE CONCERNING FUTURE WATER
SUPPLIES INVOLVES SCHEMES TO DIVERT WATER TO USERS OUT
SIDE THE BASIN 3UCH DIVERSIONS WOULD HAVE SIGNIlCANT
ECOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE 'REAT
,AKES BASIN AND POTENTIALLY CREATE LEGAL POLICY AND
PROCEDURAL CONmICTS WITHIN THE REGION
1ÀL>˜Ê>˜`Ê>˜`Ê1ÃiÊ*>˜˜ˆ˜}Ê
5RBAN AND RURAL LAND USE PLANNING CAN REDUCE SPRAWL
WHICH IN TURN REDUCES GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM
COMMUTER TRAFlC 2EDUCING SPRAWL HAS ADDED BENElTS
OF PREVENTING HABITAT DESTRUCTION AND FRAGMENTATION
REDUCING OR AT LEAST CONTAINING THE AREA OF IMPERVIOUS
SURFACES THAT CONTRIBUTE TO mOODING REDUCING MUNIC
IPAL SPENDING ON SERVICES AND DECREASING THE LOSS
OF VALUABLE FARMLAND &IGURE )N 'RAND 2APIDS
-ICHIGAN WHICH IS QUICKLY BECOMING THE POSTERCHILD
OF THE NATIONS GROWING ANTISPRAWL MOVEMENT A CIVIC
CAMPAIGN LED TO COMPREHENSIVE LANDUSE POLICY RE
FORMS INCLUDING PRESERVATION OF CONNECTED OPEN LANDS
AND NATURAL AREAS ESTABLISHMENT OF COMPACT BUSINESS
CENTERS SERVED BY MASS TRANSIT AND ESTABLISHMENT OF
BOUNDARIES ON EXTENDING WATER AND SEWER SERVICES
>LˆÌ>ÌÊ*ÀœÌiV̈œ˜Ê>˜`Ê,iÃ̜À>̈œ˜
2EHABILITATION OF WOODED RIPARIAN BUFFER STRIPS RES
TORATION OF mOODPLAIN FORESTS WETLAND PRESERVATION
AND RESTORATION AND REDUCTION OF THE EXTENT OF IM
PERVIOUS SURFACES ARE STRATEGIES THAT HELP TO MAIN
/ʙÊÊÝ>“«iÃʜvÊ`>«ÌˆÛiÊi>ÃÕÀiÃÊvœÀʈ̈}>̈˜}ʓ«>VÌÃÊ
ʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}iʜ˜ÊˆÃ…iÀˆiÃÊ
`>«Ì>̈œ˜Ê
-ÌÀ>Ìi}Þ
œœÃiÉ
>˜}i\
œV>̈œ˜
1Ãi
,i`ÕViʜÃÃiÃ\
*ÀiÛi˜ÌÊivviVÌ
œ`ˆvÞÊivviVÌ
-«iVˆwÊVÊ"«Ìˆœ˜
ˆ“ˆÌ>̈œ˜Ã
˜VœÕÀ>}iÊwÊÅiÀÃÊ̜ʓœÛiÊwÊň˜}Ê
}ÀœÕ˜`ÃÊ>ÃʏœV>̈œ˜ÃʜvÊ«ÀiviÀÀi`ÊwÊÅÊ
>LˆÌ>ÌÊV…>˜}i
œÃÌÊÃ̜VŽÃʜvÊ`iÈÀ>LiÊwÊÅÊëiVˆiÃÊ>ÀiÊ
i>ۈÞÊiÝ«œˆÌi`Ê>Ài>`Þ
Ý«œˆÌÊ«ÀiۈœÕÏÞÊ՘ÕÃi`ʜÀÊ՘`iÀÕÃi`Ê
ÀiÜÕÀViÃÊ
œV>Ê>µÕ>̈VÊiVœÃÞÃÌi“ÃÊ܈ÊLiVœ“iÊ
}i˜iÀ>ÞʜÛiÀiÝ«œˆÌi`Ê>ÃÊ̅iÊvœVÕÃʜvÊ
wÊÅiÀÃÊiÝÌi˜`ÃÊ̜Ê>ÊiÛiÃʜvÊ̅iÊvœœ`ÊÜiLÊ
œÌÊ«œÃÈLi
À̈wÊVˆ>ÞÊ>VViiÀ>Ìiʘ>ÌÕÀ>ÊÀ>ÌiÃʜvÊ
À>˜}iÊiÝÌi˜Ãˆœ˜ÊvœÀÊÜ>À“‡Ü>ÌiÀÊëiVˆiÃ
>ÀiiÃÃÊ>V̈œ˜ÃÊ܈ÊiÝ>ViÀL>ÌiÊ«ÀœLi“Ã
,i`ÕViʈ“«>VÌÃÊvÀœ“ʜ̅iÀÊ>}i˜ÌÃÊ
œvÊÃÌÀiÃÃÆÊ«>À̈VՏ>ÀÞÊÀiiÛ>˜ÌÊvœÀÊ
wÊÅiÀˆiÃʏœV>Ìi`ʈ˜Ê>Ài>Ãʜvʅˆ}…Ê…Õ“>˜Ê
«œ«Õ>̈œ˜Ê`i˜ÃˆÌÞ
,iÈÃÌ>˜ViÊ̜ʏˆ“ˆÌÊ`iÃÌÀÕV̈ÛiÊi˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì>Ê
ˆ“«>VÌÃʜvʈ˜`ÕÃÌÀÞÊ>˜`ʜ̅iÀʅՓ>˜Ê
>V̈ۈ̈iÃ
,i“œÛiÊ«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÊL>ÀÀˆiÀÃÊ̜ʓˆ}À>̈œ˜Ê
>˜`ÊÀ>˜}iÊiÝÌi˜Ãˆœ˜Ê
VVi«ÌʜÃÃiÃ\
-…>ÀiʏœÃÃ
Êi>ÀʏœÃÃ
œ“«i˜Ã>̈œ˜Éˆ˜ÃÕÀ>˜ViÊ«Àœ}À>“ÃÊ
vœÀÊwÊÅiÀÃ
œÊ˜œÌ…ˆ˜}Ê̜ÊÃ>ÛiÊëiVˆiÃʜÀÊÃ̜VŽÃ
-ÕV…Ê>V̈œ˜ÃÊ«ÀœÛˆ`iʜ˜ÞÊŜÀ̇
ÌiÀ“Ê“ˆÌˆ}>̈œ˜]ʈvÊ̅iÊ«ÀiVˆ«ˆÌ>̈˜}Ê
i˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì>ÊV…>˜}iÃÊ>ÀiÊ«iÀ“>˜i˜Ì
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-EETING THE #HALLENGES OF #LIMATE #HANGE
TAIN AND RESTORE VALUABLE HABITAT IMPROVE RECREATION
AL EXPERIENCES AND PROVIDE VITAL HUMAN SERVICES SUCH
AS WATER PURIlCATION AND mOOD CONTROL 'IVEN THE
ALREADY LARGE THREAT TO 'REAT ,AKES BIODIVERSITY FROM
INVASIVE SPECIES IT IS ALSO VITAL TO CONTINUE TO IMPLEMENT
STRONG PROTECTION AGAINST INVASIVE AQUATIC AND TERRES
TRIAL ORGANISMS /NE EXAMPLE IS THE 'REAT ,AKES
WIDE EFFORT TO CONTAIN THE SPREAD AND EXPANSION
OF NONNATIVE %URASIAN WATER MILFOIL AN IMPORTED
WATERWEED THAT FORMS THICK SMOTHERING MATS IN LAKES
AND STREAMS DEPLETING OXYGEN AND CROWDING OUT
NATIVE PLANTS )NVASIVE SPECIES SUCH AS WATER MILFOIL
ARE LIKELY TO EXACERBATE PROBLEMS CREATED BY A WARM
ING CLIMATE ESPECIALLY IN SHALLOW LAKES AND WETLANDS
>˜>}ˆ˜}Ê̅iʓ«>VÌÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i
%
VEN IF OUR SOCIETIES REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ARE
SUCCESSFUL IN RELIEVING HUMAN PRESSURES ON
ECOSYSTEMS AND MINIMIZING CLIMATE CHANGE BY
REDUCING EMISSIONS CLIMATE CHANGES ALREADY IN PROGRESS
WILL CONTINUE FOR DECADES OR MORE "ECAUSE OF THIS
SOCIETY MUST BEGIN PLANNING AND PREPARING TO MANAGE
FUTURE IMPACTS THAT CANNOT BE AVOIDED ! ROBUST STRAT
EGY IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY OR EVEN UNPREDICTABIL
ITY IS ONE THAT WILL BE mEXIBLE ENOUGH TO FARE WELL
UNDER A WIDE RANGE OF
1,ÊΙ
POSSIBLE OUTCOMES 4HE
Vœœ}ˆV>Êˆ“ˆÌÃÊ̜Ê`>«Ì>̈œ˜Ê
ˆ˜Ê}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
SECTIONS BELOW DESCRIBE
SOME hNO REGRETSv AC
TIONS THAT MAY BE TAKEN
TO MANAGE THE IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
THE 'REAT ,AKES ECONO
MY PEOPLES AND EN
VIRONMENT
ˆÃ…iÀˆiÃ
4HE HISTORIES OF ABOR
-iiÊ«>}iÊxÓ
IGINAL COMMERCIAL AND
vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
SPORT lSHERIES PROVIDE
MANY EXAMPLES OF THE ADAPTABILITY OF lSHERS 7HEN
TRADITIONALLY EXPLOITED STOCKS FAIL EFFORT IS QUICKLY
REDIRECTED AND lSHING METHODS ARE ADJUSTED TO OTHER
STOCKS AND SPECIES ,IKEWISE AS REGIONAL WATERS WARM
lSHERIES MAY BE ABLE TO ADAPT TO A NEW MIX OF lSH
SPECIES 4HIS DOES NOT MEAN HOWEVER THAT INDIVIDUAL
lSHERS OR SPECIlC lSHING COMMUNITIES WILL NECESSARILY
AVOID SERIOUS NEGATIVE EFFECTS IN PART BECAUSE HABITS
AND CULTURAL PREFERENCES ARE TYPICALLY SLOW TO CHANGE
4ABLE P
%FFECTIVE ADAPTATION WILL LIKELY INVOLVE REALLOCATION
OF HARVEST FROM ADVERSELY AFFECTED POPULATIONS SUCH
AS LAKE TROUT IN SOUTHERN INLAND LAKES TO POPULATIONS
THAT ARE POSITIVELY AFFECTED SUCH AS WALLEYE IN NORTHERN
WATERS AND SMALLMOUTH BASS THROUGHOUT THE BASIN
(OWEVER THE lSH COMMUNITY MAY FACE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRUCTURING WHILE PRODUCTIVITY AND WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN TRANSITION 4HIS TRANSITIONAL STAGE
MAY CREATE GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN DETERMINING SUSTAINABLE
HARVESTS OF ANY lSH SPECIES !LSO BOTH lSHERMEN AND
CONSUMERS HAVE PREFERENCES FOR PARTICULAR SPECIES THAT
MAY BE DIFlCULT TO CHANGE AND MAY PROLONG EXPLOITA
TION OF POPULATIONS THAT SHOULD BE PROTECTED /VERALL
ROBUST lSHERIES MANAGEMENT SHOULD BE GUIDED BY
SOME BASIC PRINCIPLES INCLUDING
s -AINTAINING EXPLOITATION RATES AT LEVELS THAT INCLUDE
A SAFETY MARGIN BASED ON HISTORICAL UNCERTAINTIES
IN FISH STOCKS
s 2EDUCING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF OTHER HUMAN
STRESSORS SUCH AS ACIDIFICATION AND HABITAT DESTRUCTION
s )NITIATING CONCERTED EFFORTS TO REDUCE OVERINVEST
MENT IN A FISHERY THAT CAN EXPLOIT CERTAIN SPECIES
AT UNSUSTAINABLE RATES
s %NSURING THAT NO PRACTICE APPLIED FOR A SHORT TIME
COULD PRODUCE EXTREME OUTCOMES
µÕ>̈VÊVœÃÞÃÌi“Ã]Ê,iÜÕÀViÃ]Ê>˜`Ê7ˆ`ˆvi
4O HELP SUSTAIN AQUATIC RESOURCES AND ECOSYSTEMS
EFFORTS SHOULD FOCUS ON PROTECTING RIPARIAN ZONES
OF RIVERS EXISTING WETLANDS AND HEADWATER STREAMS
GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS AND LAKES 0ROTECTING AND
REVEGETATING RIPARIAN ZONES FOR EXAMPLE CAN YIELD A
LARGE RETURN ON INVESTMENT IN TERMS OF REDUCING DAM
AGES AND ECONOMIC LOSSES FROM mOODING AND IMPROV
ING WATER QUALITY .ATIVE SPECIES CHOSEN FOR SUCH PROJ
ECTS SHOULD BE EVALUATED IN TERMS OF THEIR SUITABILITY
FOR A WARMER CLIMATE AND THEIR ABILITY TO WITHSTAND
FREQUENT mOODS AND DROUGHTS 4O BOOST THE CHANCES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
FOR WETLAND SURVIVAL EFFORTS CAN BE INITIATED TO INCREASE
CHANGE &INALLY AN INDIRECT IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
WATER RETENTION IN WETLANDS AND TO RESTORE OR MAINTAIN
OFTEN IGNORED INVOLVES THE INmUENCE THAT CHANGES ON
CONNECTIONS BETWEEN WETLANDS AND LAKES OR RIVERS
THE FARM WILL HAVE ON LOCAL FARMING COMMUNITIES
)NCREASING WATER CONSERVATION AND REDUCING HUMAN
4HESE IMPACTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THE
DEMANDS FOR WATER ARE VITAL GOALS
CHARACTER OF RURAL LANDSCAPES
THAT CAN BE ACHIEVED THROUGH
ACROSS THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
ˆ“>ÌiÊV…>˜}iÊ܈Ê>vviVÌÊ
CHANGES IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN
ˆ˜`ˆÛˆ`Õ>Êv>À“ÃÊ>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊ
HOUSEHOLDS FARMS AND INDUS
œÀiÃÌÀÞ
TRIES 7ATER MANAGEMENT POLICIES
œV>Êv>À“ˆ˜}ÊVœ““Õ˜ˆÌˆiÃ]Ê 4HE FOLLOWING APPROACHES MAY
CAN ALSO BE REVIEWED TO INSURE
HELP FORESTRY OPERATIONS IN THE
«œÌi˜Ìˆ>ÞÊV…>˜}ˆ˜}Ê̅iÊ
THAT THEY ARE ADEQUATE AND mEX
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 'REAT
IBLE ENOUGH TO MEET THE LONG
V…>À>VÌiÀʜvÊÀÕÀ>Ê>˜`ÃV>«iÃÊ ,AKES REGION ADJUST TO A WARMER
TERM CHALLENGES OF A CHANGING
AND POTENTIALLY DRIER CLIMATE
>VÀœÃÃÊ̅iÊÀi}ˆœ˜°
AND POTENTIALLY DRIER CLIMATE
s 3HIFTING SPECIES AND GENETIC
&INALLY AN EFFECTIVE STRATEGY
VARIETIES OF TREES AS WELL AS
FOR SUSTAINING HABITATS AND WILDLIFE POPULATIONS WILL
FORESTRY PRACTICES TO INCREASE WATER USE EFFICIENCY
BENElT FROM ACTIVE PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION
OF TREES
OF DEVELOPMENT REGULATIONS DESIGNED TO MINIMIZE
s )MPROVING SOIL MANAGEMENT SPACING AND TREE
LANDSCAPE FRAGMENTATION 0RESERVING OR RESTORING
ROTATION LENGTH TO ENHANCE THE SUCCESS OF FORESTS
MIGRATION CORRIDORS ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE WILL ALLOW
UNDER NEW OR VARIABLE CLIMATE PATTERNS
SPECIES TO MOVE TO MORE SUITABLE CLIMATES AND WILL
s -OVING TOWARD GREATER PRODUCTION OF SAW TIMBER
ALSO HELP TO SUSTAIN POPULATIONS OF NATIVE PLANTS
AND LESS PULP PRODUCTION WHICH WILL HELP SEQUESTER
AND ANIMALS THAT ARE LARGE AND GENETICALLY DIVERSE
CARBON IN LONGLIVED PRODUCTS
ENOUGH TO COPE WITH FUTURE DISTURBANCES
s #REATING BIOLOGICALLY DIVERSE RATHER THAN SINGLE
SPECIES TREE PLANTATIONS TO ENHANCE AND HASTEN SPECIES
}ÀˆVՏÌÕÀi
DISPERSAL TO MORE SUITABLE NEW RANGES
-ANY FACTORS OTHER THAN CLIMATE WILL HEAVILY INmU
s )NVESTING MORE IN PREVENTION MANAGEMENT AND
ENCE THE EASE WITH WHICH AGRICULTURE IN THE REGION
CONTAINMENT OF LARGE
1,Ê{ä
ADAPTS TO FUTURE CHANGES AND ALSO THE DIRECTION THAT
FOREST FIRES ESPECIALLY >˜>}ˆ˜}Ê̅iÊ>ŽiÊ>˜`Ê-ÌÀi>“Ê
ADAPTATION TAKES &IGURE 4YPICALLY ASSESSMENTS
DURING DRY PERIODS “«>VÌÃʜvÊ
ˆ“>ÌiÊ
>˜}i
OF AGRICULTURES CAPACITY TO ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
WHILE DEVELOPING IM
PRODUCE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE PREDICTIONS BECAUSE THEY
PROVED FIRE MANAGE
ASSUME THAT FARMERS ACCUSTOMED TO HAVING TO MAKE
MENT STRATEGIES FOR RELA
ADJUSTMENTS EVERY SEASON HAVE THE ABILITY TO SHIFT
TIVELY SMALL FIRES
PLANTING TIMES CROP VARIETIES FERTILIZER INPUTS IRRIGA
-ANY OF THE BEST PRAC
TION METHODS AND OTHER FACTORS TO OPTIMIZE PRODUC
TICES COMMON IN SUSTAIN
TION 3UCH ASSESSMENTS ALSO POINT OUT THAT CHANGES
ABLE FORESTRY TODAY COULD
IN TECHNOLOGY AVAILABILITY OF RESOURCES SUBSIDIES AND
HELP ENSURE THE RESILIENCE
MANAGEMENT POLICIES AS WELL AS CLIMATE WILL AFFECT
OF BIOLOGICALLY DIVERSE
BOTH TRENDS IN CROP YIELDS AND SHIFTS IN NATIONAL AND
-iiÊ«>}iÊxÓ
FORESTS AND HABITAT PRO vœÀÊvՏ‡ÃˆâiÊVœœÀʈ“>}iʜvÊ̅ˆÃÊwÊ}ÊÕÀi
GLOBAL MARKETS 5SUALLY MISSING FROM THESE ASSESSMENTS
TECTION FOR BIRDS AND
HOWEVER ARE THE COSTS OF ADAPTATION AND CHANGE THAT
OTHER WILDLIFE UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE STRESSES 0ARTI
INDIVIDUAL FARMERS MUST BEAR AND THE DIFFERING IM
CULARLY IMPORTANT ARE ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES THAT RETAIN
PACTS ON SMALL VERSUS LARGE FARMS /N THE FARM MAN
MANAGEMENT mEXIBILITY IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
AGEMENT CHOICES IN A CHANGING CLIMATE WILL BE GOV
TOGETHER WITH IMPROVED LAND USE PLANNING AND PEST
ERNED NOT ONLY BY FARMERS TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS
MANAGEMENT !S IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR HOW
AND RESOURCES BUT ALSO BY THEIR ABILITY AND DESIRE TO
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-EETING THE #HALLENGES OF #LIMATE #HANGE
EVER MANY MARKETRELATED AND INDUSTRYWIDE CHANGES
OCCURRING NATIONALLY AND GLOBALLY WILL AFFECT THE ECON
OMIC VIABILITY TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES AND PRODUC
TIVITY OF FORESTRY IN THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
˜vÀ>ÃÌÀÕVÌÕÀiÊ*ÀœÌiV̈œ˜Ê
>˜`ÊՈÌʘۈÀœ˜“i˜ÌÃÊ
0EOPLE HAVE TRADITIONALLY RESPONDED TO CLIMATE VARI
ABILITY AND WEATHER EXTREMES BY SHIELDING THEMSELVES
THROUGH BOTH STRUCTURAL MEASURES SUCH AS BULKHEADS
ALONG SHORELINES LEVEES IN mOODPLAINS OR DREDGING OF
LAKES &IGURE P AND NONSTRUCTURAL MEASURES
INCLUDING INSURANCE COVERAGE WARNING SYSTEMS EMER
GENCY MANAGEMENT PLANS AND LAND USE PLANNING
4HESE SAME TOOLS CAN HELP SOCIETY ADAPT TO CLIMATE
CHANGE ALTHOUGH MANY CURRENT APPLICATIONS FAIL TO
INCLUDE THE NECESSARY LONGTERM PERSPECTIVE OR EVEN
AN AWARENESS OF CLIMATE CHANGE &OR EXAMPLE WHEN
LEVEES AND OTHER STRUCTURES ARE BEING UPGRADED OR
REPLACED IT MAY BE INADEQUATE TO ENGINEER REPLACE
MENTS BASED SOLELY ON HISTORICAL FREQUENCIES OF EX
TREME EVENTS OR WATERLEVEL mUCTUATIONS #OMPLE
MENTARY STRATEGIES MAY BE NEEDED BECAUSE OF CURRENT
TRENDS IN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY INCLUDING EVER MORE
EXPENSIVE COVERAGE AND WITHDRAWAL FROM HIGHRISK AREAS
&OR EXAMPLE PROGRESSIVE RELOCATION OF HOMES AND
BUSINESSES OUT OF THE MOST HAZARDOUS AREAS AND OTHER
IMPROVEMENTS IN ZONING PLANNING AND BUILDING CODES
CAN AVOID CREATING GREATER VULNERABILITY AND LIABILITY
IN THE FUTURE
Փ>˜Êi>Ì
#OORDINATED HEALTH MANAGEMENT PLANS THAT SPECIl
CALLY TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CHANGING PATTERNS OF DISEASE
THREATS IN A WARMER CLIMATE WILL BE VITAL IN MANAGING
FUTURE HEALTH RISKS AS SUGGESTED IN A RECENT REPORT ON
ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR THE 4ORONTO.IAGARA REGION
!S THE FREQUENCY OR INTENSITY OF EXTREME HEAT EVENTS
INCREASES EARLIER FORECASTING BETTER PUBLIC EDUCATION
EFFORTS AND ASSISTANCE DIRECTED AT ELDERLY LOWINCOME
AND OTHER HIGHRISK POPULATIONS WILL BE NEEDED %ARLIER
WARNINGS DURING PERIODS OF INCREASED GROUNDLEVEL AIR
POLLUTION COULD ALSO HELP THE ELDERLY AND PEOPLE WITH
PREEXISTING RESPIRATORY CONDITIONS REDUCE THEIR EXPO
SURE 0UBLIC EDUCATION CAN HELP PEOPLE REDUCE THEIR
RISK OF EXPOSURE TO MANY VECTORBORNE DISEASES IN THE
REGION INCLUDING ,YME DISEASE %ASTERN EQUINE EN
CEPHALITIS AND 7EST .ILE ENCEPHALITIS BY MODIFYING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY CLOTHING OR HOUSING
/BVIOUSLY LIMITING CONSTRUCTION OF HOUSES IN
mOOD PLAINS AND IMPROVING HOUSING CONSTRUCTION
STANDARDS COULD REDUCE RISK OF mOOD DAMAGE INJURIES
AND DEATHS )N GENERAL INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS
THAT MAINTAIN OR IMPROVE SANITATION SEWAGE TREAT
MENT WASTE DISPOSAL STORMWATER DRAINAGE AND
WATER SUPPLY WILL ALL HELP REDUCE HEALTH RISKS
iï˜}Ê̅iÊ
>i˜}iÃ
'
LOBAL WARMING IS UNDER WAY AND ALREADY
CAUSING CHANGES TO OUR ENVIRONMENT -UCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT SPECIlC ECOLOGI
CAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES THAT A WARMER CLIMATE WITH
DRIER SUMMERS WILL BRING TO THE 'REAT ,AKES REGION
BUT IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE IMPACTS WILL MAGNIFY IN IM
PORTANCE IN THE FUTURE 4HIS KNOWLEDGE PROVIDES NO
EXCUSE FOR INACTION OR FATALISM HOWEVER BECAUSE INNO
VATIVE AFFORDABLE AND PRUDENT SOLUTIONS ARE AVAILABLE
TO HELP REDUCE THE SEVERITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBALLY
INCREASE THE HEALTH AND RESILIENCE OF ECOLOGICAL AND
ECONOMIC SYSTEMS VITAL TO THE REGION AND BEGIN PLAN
NING AND PREPARING NOW TO ADAPT TO THOSE FUTURE
CHANGES THAT CANNOT BE AVOIDED "Y ACTING NOW WE
CAN PROTECT THE RICH NATURAL HERITAGE VIBRANT ECONO
MY AND WELLBEING OF PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES IN
.ORTH !MERICAS HEARTLAND
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
2EFERENCES
53 #ENSUS "UREAU #ENSUS 7ASHINGTON
$# $EPARTMENT OF #OMMERCE
3TATISTICS #ANADA 0OPULATION DATA FOR /NTARIO
FROM TO 0ROVIDED BY /NTARIO -INISTRY
OF &INANCE 4ORONTO /NT
4HORP 3 2 2IVERS AND 6 0EBBLES )MPACTS
OF #HANGING ,AND 5SE 3TATE OF THE ,AKES %COSYSTEM
#ONFERENCE 3/,%# BACKGROUND PAPER !NN
!RBOR -ICH 'REAT ,AKES #OMMISSION AND "URLINGTON
/NT %NVIRONMENT #ANADA !VAILABLE ON THE %0!
WEBSITE AT WWWEPAGOVGLNPOSOLECLANDUSEINDEXHTM
3TATISTICS #ANADA -ANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS
PROVINCES AND TERRITORIES !VAILABLE ON THE 3TATISTICS
#ANADA WEBSITE AT WWWSTATCANCAENGLISH0GDB
MANUFHTM
53 #ENSUS "UREAU 3TATISTICAL !BSTRACT OF THE
5NITED 3TATES 4ABLE -ANUFACTURESˆ3UMMARY
BY 3TATE 7ASHINGTON $# 53 #ENSUS "UREAU
!LLARDICE $2 AND 3 4HORP ! #HANGING
'REAT ,AKES %CONOMY %CONOMIC AND %NVIRONMENTAL
,INKAGES 0APER PRESENTED AT THE 3TATE OF THE ,AKES
%COSYSTEM #ONFERENCE #HICAGO )LL 53 %NVIRON
MENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY
53 $EPARTMENT OF !GRICULTURE %CONOMIC
2ESEARCH 3ERVICE 3TATE &ACTS 6ALUE OF RECEIPTS $EPARTMENT OF !GRICULTURE 7ASHINGTON $#
3TATISTICS #ANADA #ENSUS OF !GRICULTURE 'ROSS
&ARM 2ECEIPTS AND %XPENSES 0ROVINCES /TTAWA /NT
-INISTRY OF !GRICULTURE &OOD AND 2URAL !FFAIRS !VAIL
ABLE FROM 3TATISTICS #ANADA WEBSITE AT WWWSTATCAN
CAENGLISH0GDBECONAHTM
/NTARIO )NVESTMENT 3ERVICE 4HE (EART OF .ORTH
!MERICAS &OREST )NDUSTRY !VAILABLE AT WWWONTARIOCOM
INDUSTRYFORESTRYASP !CCESSED ON &EBRUARY 53 #ENSUS "UREAU !NNUAL 3URVEY OF -ANU
FACTURES 'EOGRAPHIC !REA 3TATISTICS 7ASHINGTON
$# $EPARTMENT OF #OMMERCE
4RAVEL )NDUSTRY !SSOCIATION OF !MERICA )MPACT
OF 4RAVEL ON 3TATE %CONOMIES !VAILABLE ON THE 4)!!
WEBSITE AT WWWTIAORG0UBSPUBSASP0UBLICATION)$
.ATIONAL 0ARK 3ERVICE .ATIONAL 0ARK 3ERVICE
3TATISTICAL !BSTRACT $ENVER #OL 3TATISTICAL
/FlCE 53 $EPARTMENT OF THE )NTERIOR !VAILABLE
ON THE .03 WEBSITE AT WWWNATURENPSGOVSTATS
ABSTPDF
/NTARIO 0ARKS /NTARIO 0ROVINCIAL 0ARKS
3TATISTICS 0UB .O #!/. .2 / 4ORONTO
/NT 1UEENS 0RINTER
0ARKS #ANADA 0ARKS #ANADA !TTENDANCE
n TO n !VAILABLE ON THE #OMMUNICA
TION #ANADA WEBSITE AT DSPPSDCOMMUNICATIONGCCA
#OLLECTION2%PDF
53 &ISH AND 7ILDLIFE 3ERVICE .ATIONAL
3URVEY OF &ISHING (UNTING AND 7ILDLIFE!SSOCIATED
2ECREATION 7ASHINGTON $# 53 &ISH AND 7ILDLIFE
3ERVICE !VAILABLE ON THE 53 #ENSUS WEBSITE AT
WWWCENSUSGOVPRODPUBSFHWNATPDF
/NTARIO -INISTRY OF 4OURISM AND 2ECREATION 4OURISM %XPENDITURES IN /NTARIO BY /RIGIN n
!VAILABLE ON THE /-42 WEBSITE AT WWW
TOURISMGOVONCAENGLISHTOURDIVRESEARCHPDF
EXPENDITURESORIGINEPDF
53 %NERGY )NFORMATION !DMINISTRATION 3TATE %NERGY $ATA 2EPORT 7ASHINGTON $#
53 %NERGY )NFORMATION !DMINISTRATION
.ATURAL 2ESOURCES #ANADA #ANADAS %MISSIONS
/UTLOOK !N 5PDATE /TTAWA /NT !NALYSIS AND
-ODELING 'ROUP .ATIONAL #LIMATE #HANGE 0ROCESS
!VAILABLE ON THE .ATURAL 2ESOURCES #ANADA WEBSITE
AT WWWNRCANGCCAESCEOOUTLOOKPDF
3EE 4HORPE ET AL IN REFERENCE "LAUSTEIN !2 $" 7AKE AND 70 3OUSA !MPHIBIAN DECLINES *UDGING STABILITY PERSISTENCE
AND SUSCEPTIBILITY OF POPULATIONS TO LOCAL AND GLOBAL
EXTINCTIONS #ONSERVATION "IOLOGY n
'IBBS *0 $ISTRIBUTION OF WOODLAND
AMPHIBIANS ALONG A FOREST FRAGMENTATION GRADIENT
,ANDSCAPE %COLOGY n
0AUL -* AND *, -EYER 3TREAMS IN THE
URBAN LANDSCAPE !NNUAL 2EVIEW OF %COLOGY AND
3YSTEMATICS n
!RNOLD #, AND #* 'IBBONS )MPERVIOUS
SURFACE COVERAGE 4HE EMERGENCE OF A KEY ENVIRON
MENTAL CONDITION !MERICAN 0LANNERS !SSOCIATION
*OURNAL n
'ALLI &* 4HERMAL )MPACTS !SSOCIATED 7ITH
5RBANIZATION AND 3TORMWATER -ANAGEMENT "EST -AN
AGEMENT 0RACTICES 7ASHINGTON $# 7ASHINGTON
#OUNCIL OF 'OVERNMENTS
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
+ABAT 0 ET AL EDS IN PRESS 6EGETATION 7ATER (UMANS
AND THE #LIMATE ! .EW 0ERSPECTIVE ON AN )NTERACTIVE
3YSTEM ! SYNTHESIS OF THE )'"0 #ORE 0ROJECT "IO
SPHERIC !SPECTS OF THE (YDROLOGICAL #YCLE 'LOBAL
#HANGEˆ4HE )'"0 3ERIES .EW 9ORK 3PRINGER
0IELKE 3R 2! ET AL 4HE INmUENCE OF LANDUSE
CHANGE AND LANDSCAPE DYNAMICS ON THE CLIMATE SYSTEM
2ELEVANCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY BEYOND THE RADI
ATIVE EFFECT OF GREENHOUSE GASES 0HILOSOPHICAL 4RANS
ACTIONS OF THE 2OYAL 3OCIETY ,ONDON 3PECIAL 4HEME
)SSUEn
+UNKEL +% ET AL !N EXPANDED DIGITAL
DAILY DATABASE FOR CLIMATIC RESOURCES APPLICATIONS
IN THE -IDWESTERN 5NITED 3TATES "ULLETIN OF THE
!MERICAN -ETEOROLOGICAL 3OCIETY n
-C#ORMICK -* AND ' , &AHNENSTIEL 2ECENT CLIMATIC TRENDS IN NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 3T ,AWRENCE 'REAT ,AKES
,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
7YNNE 2( ET AL 3ATELLITE MONITORING OF
LAKE ICE BREAKUP ON THE ,AURENTIAN 3HIELD n
0HOTOGRAMMETRIC %NGINEERING AND 2EMOTE 3ENSING n
"ENSON " 4 +RATZ AND * -AGNUSON 6ARI
ABILITY AND EXTREME EVENTS IN LONGTERM LAKE AND RIVER
ICE PHENOLOGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 0APER
PRESENTED AT THE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA !NNUAL -EETING -ADISON 7IS
-AGNUSON IN NOTE )NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE #LIMATE #HANGE 4HE 3CIENTIlC "ASIS 4ECHNICAL
REPORT #AMBRIDGE 5+ #AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS
-AGNUSON IN NOTE -ORTSCH ,$ !SSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON THE 'REAT ,AKES SHORELINE WETLANDS
#LIMATE #HANGE n
53 'LOBAL #HANGE 2ESEARCH 0ROGRAM 53
.ATIONAL !SSESSMENT OF THE 0OTENTIAL #ONSEQUENCES OF
#LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE 7ASHINGTON $#
53 #LIMATE #HANGE 3CIENCE 0ROGRAM53 'LOBAL
#HANGE 2ESEARCH 0ROGRAM !VAILABLE ON THE
53'#20 WEBSITE AT WWWUSGCRPGOVUSGCRPNACC
-AGNUSON ** 3IGNALS FROM ICE COVER TRENDS
AND VARIABILITY )N &ISHERIES IN A #HANGING #LIMATE
.! -C'INN ED "ETHESDA -D !MERICAN &ISHERIES
3OCIETY PP n !VAILABLE ON THE !&3 WEBSITE AT
WWWlSHERIESORGPUBLICATIONSCATBOOKSXSHTML
3HUTER "* #+ -INNS AND . ,ESTER #LI
MATE CHANGE FRESHWATER lSH AND lSHERIES #ASE STUDIES
FROM /NTARIO AND THEIR USE IN ASSESSING POTENTIAL IMPACTS
)N &ISHERIES IN A #HANGING #LIMATE .! -C'INN ED
"ETHESDA -D !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY PP n
+ING *2 "* 3HUTER AND !0 :IMMERMAN 4HE RESPONSE OF THE THERMAL STRATIlCATION OF 3OUTH
"AY ,AKE (URON TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY #ANADIAN
*OURNAL OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCE n
+ING *2 "* 3HUTER AND !0 :IMMERMAN 3IGNALS OF CLIMATE TRENDS AND EXTREME EVENTS IN THE
THERMAL STRATIlCATION OF MULTIBASIN ,AKE /PEONGO
#ANADIAN *OURNAL OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCE n
2OBERTSON $- 2( 7YNNE AND 79" #HANG
)NmUENCE OF %L .I®O ON LAKE AND RIVER ICE
COVER IN THE .ORTHERN (EMISPHERE FROM n
6ERHANDLUNGEN DER )NTERNATIONALEN 6EREINIGUNG FÓR
,IMNOLOGIE n
,OFGREN "- ET AL %VALUATION OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON 'REAT ,AKES WATER RESOURCES BASED ON
CLIMATE SCENARIOS OF TWO '#-S *OURNAL OF 'REAT
,AKES 2ESEARCH n
-AGNUSON ** ET AL IN PRESS 7ISCONSIN WATERS
AND CLIMATE (ISTORICAL CHANGES AND POSSIBLE FUTURES
4RANSACTIONS OF THE 7ISCONSIN !CADEMY OF 3CIENCES
!RTS AND ,ETTERS
3OUSOUNIS 0* AND *- "ISANZ 0REPARING FOR
A #HANGING #LIMATE 4HE 0OTENTIAL #ONSEQUENCES OF
#LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE 'REAT ,AKES /VERVIEW
'REAT ,AKES 2EGIONAL !SSESSMENT 'ROUP !NN !RBOR
-ICH 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN !VAILABLE ON THE 'REAT
,AKES 2EGIONAL #LIMATE #HANGE !SSESSMENT WEBSITE
AT WWWGEOMSUEDUGLRAASSESSMENTASSESSMENTHTML
,ENTERS *$ ,ONGTERM TRENDS IN THE SEASONAL
CYCLE OF 'REAT ,AKES WATER LEVELS *OURNAL OF 'REAT
,AKES 2ESEARCH n
+UNKEL +% + !NDSAGER AND $2 %ASTERLING
,ONGTERM TRENDS IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENTS OVER .ORTH !MERICA *OURNAL OF #LIMATE n
!RNELL . ET AL (YDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES
)N #LIMATE #HANGE )MPACTS !DAPTATION AND
6ULNERABILITY 2EPORT BY 7ORKING 'ROUP )) FOR THE
)0## #AMBRIDGE 5+ #AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY
0RESS PP n
3HUTER ET AL IN NOTE 'ITAY ( ET AL %COSYSTEMS AND THEIR GOODS
AND SERVICES )N #LIMATE #HANGE )MPACTS !DAP
TATION AND 6ULNERABILITY 2EPORT BY 7ORKING 'ROUP
)) FOR THE )0## #AMBRIDGE 5+ #AMBRIDGE
5NIVERSITY 0RESS PP n
-AGNUSON ** ET AL ,AKE AND RIVER ICE AS
A POWERFUL INDICATOR OF PAST AND PRESENT CLIMATES
6ERHANDLUNGEN DER )NTERNATIONALEN 6EREINIGUNG FÓR
,IMNOLOGIE n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
,ETTENMAIER $0 ET AL 7ATER RESOURCES IMPLI
CATIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING ! 53 REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
#LIMATIC #HANGE n
(ONDZO - AND -' 3TEFAN 2EGIONAL
WATER TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS OF LAKES SUBJECTED
TO CLIMATE CHANGE #LIMATIC #HANGE n
#HANGNON 3! AND +% +UNKEL #LIMATE
RELATED mUCTUATIONS IN -IDWESTERN mOODING *OURNAL
OF 7ATER 2ESOURCES 0LANNING AND -ANAGEMENT $IVISION
n
3TEFAN (' ET AL 3IMULATED LONGTERM TEM
PERATURE AND DISSOLVED OXYGEN CHARACTERISTICS OF LAKES
IN THE NORTHCENTRAL 53 AND ASSOCIATED lSH HABITAT
LIMITS ,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
+ARL 42 ET AL )NDICES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
FOR THE 5NITED 3TATES "ULLETIN OF THE !MERICAN
-ETEROLOGICAL 3OCIETY n
-AGNUSON ** ET AL 0OTENTIAL EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON AQUATIC SYSTEMS ,AURENTIAN 'REAT
,AKES AND 0RECAMBRIAN 3HIELD 2EGION )N &RESHWATER
%COSYSTEMS AND #LIMATE #HANGE IN .ORTH !MERICA !
2EGIONAL !SSESSMENT #% #USHING ED .EW 9ORK
*OHN 7ILEY 3ONS PP n
+UNKEL +% 2! 0IELKE *R AND 3! #HANGNON
4EMPORAL mUCTUATIONS IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE
EXTREMES THAT CAUSE ECONOMIC AND HUMAN HEALTH IMPACTS
! REVIEW "ULLETIN OF THE !MERICAN -ETEOROLOGICAL
3OCIETY n
)NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE 3PECIAL 2EPORT ON %MISSIONS 3CENARIOS ! REPORT BY THE
)NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE #AM
BRIDGE 5+ #AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS
7UEBBLES $* AND + (AYHOE #LIMATE #HANGE
! 2EAL )SSUE WITH 2EAL #ONCERNS FOR THE -IDWEST
0ROCEEDINGS OF THE )NTERNATIONAL #ONFERENCE ON
#LIMATE #HANGE AND %NVIRONMENTAL 0OLICY .OVEMBER
n 5RBANA )LL 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS AT
5RBANA#HAMPAIGN !VAILABLE ON THE CONFERENCE
WEBSITE AT WWWACEUIUCEDUP%2%CONFERENCEPAPERS
-C#ORMICK IN NOTE 3CHERTZER 7- AND !- 3AWCHUK 4HERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE LOWER 'REAT ,AKES IN A WARM YEAR
IMPLICATIONS FOR OCCURRENCE OF HYPOLIMNION ANOXIA
4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
(ILL $+ AND ** -AGNUSON 0OTENTIAL EFFECTS
OF GLOBAL CLIMATE WARMING ON THE GROWTH AND PREY
CONSUMPTION OF 'REAT ,AKES lSH 4RANSACTIONS OF THE
!MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
(ONDZO - AND (' 3TEFAN 4HREE CASE STUDIES
OF LAKE TEMPERATURE AND STRATIlCATION RESPONSE TO WARMER
CLIMATE 7ATER 2ESOURCES 2ESEARCH n
"OYCE &- ET AL 2ESPONSE OF THE THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF ,AKE /NTARIO TO DEEP COOLING WATER
WITHDRAWALS AND TO GLOBAL WARMING *OURNAL OF 'REAT
,AKES 2ESEARCH n
#ROLEY 4% (YDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON THE ,AURENTIAN 'REAT ,AKES 4RENDS IN
(YDROLOGY n
,ANG # - ,EUENBERGER * 3CHWANTER AND 3 *OHNSEN
—# RAPID TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN #ENTRAL
'REENLAND YEARS AGO 3CIENCE n
-C#ORMICK -* 0OTENTIAL CHANGES IN THERMAL
STRUCTURE AND CYCLE OF ,AKE -ICHIGAN DUE TO GLOBAL
WARMING 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES
3OCIETY n
$OLLAR ., ET AL #HEMICAL FRACTIONATION
OF METALS IN WETLAND SEDIMENTS )NDIAN $UNES .ATIONAL
,AKESHORE %NVIRONMENTAL 3CIENCE AND 4ECHNOLOGY n
0ERKINS 3- '- &ILIPPELLI AND #* 3OUCH !IRBORNE TRACE METAL CONTAMINATION OF WETLAND SEDI
MENTS AT )NDIANA $UNES .ATIONAL ,AKESHORE 7ATER
!IR AND 3OIL 0OLLUTION n
9U :# AND (% 7RIGHT 2ESPONSE OF INTERIOR
.ORTH !MERICA TO ABRUPT CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS IN THE
.ORTH !TLANTIC REGION DURING THE LAST DEGLACIATION
%ARTH3CIENCE 2EVIEWS n
"ODALY 2! ET AL -ERCURY CONCENTRATIONS
IN lSH RELATED TO SIZE OF REMOTE #ANADIAN SHIELD LAKES
#ANADIAN *OURNAL OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES
n
9EDILER ! AND * *ACOBS 3YNERGISTIC EFFECTS
OF TEMPERATUREOXYGEN AND WATERmOW ON THE ACCUMU
LATION AND TISSUE DISTRIBUTION OF MERCURY IN CARP
#YPRINUS CARPIO , #HEMOSPHERE n
.ATIONAL 2ESEARCH #OUNCIL #OMMITTEE ON !BRUPT
#LIMATE #HANGE !BRUPT #LIMATE #HANGE
)NEVITABLE 3URPRISES 7ASHINGTON $# .ATIONAL
!CADEMY 0RESS
!LLEY 2" AND 05 #LARK 4HE DEGLACIATION
OF THE .ORTHERN (EMISPHERE ! GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE !NNUAL
2EVIEW OF %ARTH AND 0LANETARY 3CIENCES n
+ALFF * ,IMNOLOGY )NLAND 7ATER %COSYSTEMS
4ORONTO /NT 0RENTICE (ALL
"OYCE ET AL IN NOTE #ROLEY IN NOTE #ROLEY IN NOTE 0EETERS & ET AL -ODELING YEARS OF HISTORICAL
TEMPERATURE PROlLES IN A LARGE CENTRAL %UROPEAN LAKE
,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
"LUMBERG !& AND $- $I4ORO %FFECTS OF
CLIMATE WARMING ON DISSOLVED OXYGEN CONCENTRATIONS
IN ,AKE %RIE 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES
3OCIETY n
3TEFAN (' 8 &ANG AND *' %ATON 3IMU
LATED lSH HABITAT CHANGES IN .ORTH !MERICAN LAKES
IN RESPONSE TO PROJECTED CLIMATE WARMING 4RANSACTIONS
OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
!SSEL 2! )MPLICATIONS OF #/ GLOBAL
WARMING ON 'REAT ,AKES ICE COVER #LIMATE #HANGE
n
0EETERS ET AL IN NOTE 'ERTEN $ AND 2 !DRIAN %FFECTS OF CLIMATE
WARMING .ORTH !TLANTIC /SCILLATION AND %L .I®O
3OUTHERN /SCILLATION ON THERMAL CONDITIONS AND
PLANKTON DYNAMICS IN .ORTHERN (EMISPHERIC LAKES
4HE 3CIENTIlC 7ORLD *OURNAL n
"ELTAOS 3 AND 43 0ROWSE #LIMATE IMPACTS
ON EXTREME ICEJAM EVENTS IN #ANADIAN RIVERS
(YDROLOGICAL 3CIENCES n
+NOX *# !GRICULTURAL INmUENCE ON LAND
SCAPE SENSITIVITY IN THE 5PPER -ISSISSIPPI 2IVER 6ALLEY
#ATENA n
,OFGREN ET AL IN NOTE *ACKSON $! AND .% -ANDRAK #HANGING
lSH BIODIVERSITY PREDICTING THE LOSS OF CYPRINID BIO
DIVERSITY DUE TO GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE !MERICAN
&ISHERIES 3OCIETY 3YMPOSIUM n
"ROWN 27 AND 77 4AYLOR &ACTORS
AFFECTING THE RECRUITMENT OF ,AKE 7HITElSH IN TWO
AREAS OF NORTHERN ,AKE -ICHIGAN *OURNAL OF 'REAT
,AKES 2ESEARCH n
,OFGREN ET AL IN NOTE 2ICHARDS 20 -EASURES OF mOW VARIABILITY
AND A NEW mOWBASED CLASSIlCATION OF 'REAT ,AKES
TRIBUTARIES *OURNAL OF 'REAT ,AKES 2ESEARCH n
!DAMS 2- "( (URD AND * 2EILLY !GRICULTURE AND 'LOBAL #LIMATE #HANGE ! 2EVIEW
OF )MPACTS TO 53 !GRICULTURAL 2ESOURCES !RLINGTON
6A 0EW #ENTER ON 'LOBAL #LIMATE #HANGE
53 %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY !GRI
CULTURE AND THE %NVIRONMENT 4HE 0ROBLEM OF .ON
POINT 3OURCE 0OLLUTION 7ASHINGTON $# %0!
%0! &B
-ORTSCH , ET AL #LIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
ON THE HYDROLOGY OF THE 'REAT ,AKES3T ,AWRENCE
SYSTEM #ANADIAN 7ATER 2ESOURCES *OURNAL n
A ,OFGREN ET AL IN NOTE B 3TEFAN (' AND 8 &ANG 3IMULATED CLIMATE
CHANGE EFFECTS ON ICE AND SNOW COVERS ON LAKES IN
A TEMPERATE REGION #OLD 2EGIONS 3CIENCE AND
4ECHNOLOGY n
(AMILTON $0 4+ +RATZ AND "" 7ALLACE IN
PRESS (EAT mUXES ICE COVER AND THERMAL REGIME IN
#RYSTAL ,AKE 7ISCONSIN ,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY
-UNN ., AND *, -EYER (ABITATSPECIlC
SOLUTE RETENTION IN TWO SMALL STREAMS !N INTERSITE
COMPARISON %COLOGY n
3OUSOUNIS AND "ISANZ IN NOTE 7ALLACE *" *2 7EBSTER AND *, -EYER )NmUENCE OF LOG ADDITIONS ON PHYSICAL AND BIOTIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF A MOUNTAIN STREAM #ANADIAN *OURNAL
OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES n
&EE %* ET AL %FFECTS OF LAKE SIZE ON PHYTO
PLANKTON PHOTOSYNTHESIS #ANADIAN *OURNAL OF &ISHERIES
AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES n
2EGIER (! *! (OLMES AND $ 0AULY )NmU
ENCE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES ON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS
!N INTERPRETATION OF EMPIRICAL DATA 4RANSACTIONS OF
THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
$!NGELO $* *2 7EBSTER AND %& "ENlELD -ECHANISMS OF STREAM PHOSPHORUS RETENTION !N
EXPERIMENTAL STUDY *OURNAL OF THE .ORTH !MERICAN
"ENTHOLOGICAL 3OCIETY n
-ULHOLLAND 0* ET AL 0HOSPHORUS SPIRALING
IN A WOODLAND STREAM 3EASONAL VARIATIONS %COLOGY
n
,OFGREN ET AL IN NOTE "OYCE ET AL IN NOTE *UNK 7* 0" "AYLEY AND 2% 3PARKS 4HE mOOD PULSE CONCEPT IN RIVERmOODPLAIN SYSTEMS
#ANADIAN 3PECIAL 0UBLICATIONS OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC
3CIENCES n
3PARKS 2% *# .ELSON AND 9 9IN .ATURAL
IZATION OF THE mOOD REGIME IN REGULATED RIVERS 4HE
CASE OF THE UPPER -ISSISSIPPI 2IVER"IO3CIENCE
"IO3CIENCE n
!DAMS -3 47 -EINKE AND 4 + +RATZ 0RIMARY PRODUCTIVITY IN THREE NORTHERN 7ISCONSIN
LAKES n 6ERHANDLUNGEN DER )NTERNATIONALEN
6EREINIGUNG FÓR ,IMNOLOGY n
-AGNUSON ET AL IN NOTE 3CHINDLER $7 ET AL 4HE EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC
WARMING ON THE PROPERTIES OF BOREAL LAKES AND STREAMS
AT THE %XPERIMENTAL ,AKES !REA NORTHWESTERN /NTARIO
,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
3PARKS 2% .EED FOR ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT
OF LARGE RIVERS AND THEIR mOODPLAINS "IOSCIENCE n
%RMAN .! AND $# %RMAN 3PRING PERMA
NENCE 4RICHOPTERA SPECIES RICHNESS AND ROLE OF DROUGHT
*OURNAL OF +ANSAS %NTOMOLOGICAL 3OCIETY n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
,ADLE - AND *!" "ASS 4HE ECOLOGY OF A
SMALL CHALK STREAM AND ITS RESPONSE TO DRYING DURING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS !RCHIV FÓR (YDROBIOLOGIE n
,EOPOLD ," -' 7OLMAN AND *0 -ILLER &LUVIAL 0ROCESSES IN 'EOMORPHOLOGY 3AN &RANCISCO
#ALIF 7( &REEMAN
-EYER *, AND *" 7ALLACE ,OST LINKAGES AND
LOTIC ECOLOGY 2EDISCOVERING SMALL STREAMS )N %COLOGY
!CHIEVEMENT AND #HALLENGE THE ST 3YMPOSIUM OF THE
"RITISH %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY -# 0RESS .* (UNTLY
AND , ,EVIN EDS -ALDEN -ASS "LACKWELL 3CIENCE
,AKE 03 $ISTURBANCE PATCHINESS AND
DIVERSITY IN STREAMS *OURNAL OF THE .ORTH !MERICAN
"ENTHOLOGICAL 3OCIETY n
'OLLADAY 37 ET AL (YDROLOGIC AND GEOMOR
PHIC CONTROLS ON SUSPENDED PARTICULATE ORGANIC MATTER
CONCENTRATIONS AND TRANSPORT IN )CHAWAYNOCHAWAY
#REEK 'EORGIA !RCHIV FÓR (YDROBIOLOGIE n
-ILLER !- AND 37 'OLLADAY %FFECTS OF
SPATES AND DRYING ON MACROINVERTEBRATE ASSEMBLAGES
OF AN INTERMITTENT AND A PERENNIAL PRAIRIE STREAM
*OURNAL OF THE .ORTH !MERICAN "ENTHOLOGICAL 3OCIETY
n
(OGG )$ AND $$ 7ILLIAMS 2ESPONSE OF
STREAM INVERTEBRATES TO A GLOBALWARMING THERMAL REGIME
AN ECOSYSTEMLEVEL MANIPULATION %COLOGY n
-ORIN ! AND . "OURASSA -ODáLES EMPIRIQUES
DE LA PRODUCTION ANNUELLE ET DU RAPPORT 0"
DINVERT£BR£S BENTHIQUES DEAU COURANTE #ANADIAN
*OURNAL OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES n
3HUTER "* AND ++ )NG &ACTORS AFFECTING
THE PRODUCTION OF ZOOPLANKTON IN LAKES #ANADIAN
*OURNAL OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES n
6ERRY %3 &OREST HARVESTING AND WATER 4HE
,AKE 3TATES EXPERIENCE 7ATER 2ESOURCES "ULLETIN n
0ALMER -! ET AL ,INKAGES BETWEEN AQUATIC
SEDIMENT BIOTA AND LIFE ABOVE THE SEDIMENTS AS POTEN
TIAL DRIVERS OF BIODIVERSITY AND ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES
"IO3CIENCE n
"IO3CIENC
0OFF ., ET AL 'LOBAL CHANGE AND STREAM
lSH DIVERSITY )N 'LOBAL "IODIVERSITY IN A #HANGING
%NVIRONMENT 3CENARIOS FOR THE ST #ENTURY &3 #HAPIN
))) /% 3ALA AND % (UBER3AANWALD EDS .EW 9ORK
3PRINGER6ERLAG PP n
(AX #, AND 37 'OLLADAY &LOW DISTUR
BANCE OF MACROINVERTEBRATES INHABITING SEDIMENTS AND
WOODY DEBRIS IN A PRAIRIE STREAM !MERICAN -IDLAND
.ATURALIST n
0OWER -! &LOODS FOOD CHAINS AND ECO
SYSTEM PROCESSES IN RIVERS )N ,INKING 3PECIES AND
%COSYSTEMS #' *ONES AND *( ,AWTON EDS .EW
9ORK #HAPMAN AND (ILL PP n
0OFF ., 7HAT DISTURBANCES CAN BE PREDIC
TABLE ! PERSPECTIVE ON THE DElNITION OF DISTURBANCE
IN STREAMS *OURNAL OF THE .ORTH !MERICAN "ENTHOLOGICAL
3OCIETY n
$E6ITO +* AND !2 (ILL 3ULFATE DYNAMICS
IN RELATION TO GROUNDWATERSURFACE WATER INTERACTIONS
IN HEADWATER WETLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN #ANADIAN
3HIELD (YDROLOGICAL 0ROCESSES n
$ILLON 0* ,! -ALOT AND - &UTTER %FFECT
OF %L .I®ORELATED DROUGHT ON THE RECOVERY OF ACIDIlED
LAKES %NVIRONMENTAL -ONITORING AND !SSESSMENT n
7ARREN &* ET AL %FFECT OF DROUGHT ON
HYDROLOGY AND SULPHATE DYNAMICS IN A TEMPERATE
SWAMP (YDROLOGICAL 0ROCESSES n
-OHSENI / 42 %RICKSON AND (' 3TEFAN 3ENSITIVITY OF STREAM TEMPERATURES IN THE 5NITED 3TATES
TO AIR TEMPERATURES PROJECTED UNDER GLOBAL CLIMATE
SCENARIOS 7ATER 2ESOURCES 2ESEARCH n
0ILGRIM *- 8 &ANG AND (' 3TEFAN 3TREAM
TEMPERATURE CORRELATIONS WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN -IN
NESOTA )MPLICATIONS FOR CLIMATE WARMING *OURNAL OF
THE !MERICAN 7ATER 2ESOURCES !SSOCIATION n
-ILLER AND 'OLLADAY IN NOTE ,INDROTH 2, ET AL #ONSEQUENCES OF ELEVATED
CARBON DIOXIDE AND OZONE FOR FOLIAR CHEMICAL COMPOSI
TION AND DYNAMICS IN TREMBLING ASPEN 0OPULUS
TREMULOIDES AND PAPER BIRCH "ETULA PAPYRIFERA
TREMULOIDES
%NVIRONMENTAL 0OLLUTION n
4UCHMAN .# ET AL %LEVATED ATMOSPHERIC
#/ LOWERS LEAF LITTER NUTRITIONAL QUALITY FOR STREAM
ECOSYSTEM FOOD WEBS 'LOBAL #HANGE "IOLOGY n
#OTRUFO -& AND 0 )NESON %LEVATED #/
REDUCES lELD DECOMPOSITION RATES OF "ETULA PENDULA
2OTH LEAF LITTER /ECOLOGIA n
/STROFSKY -, 2ELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
CHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AUTUMNSHED LEAVES AND
AQUATIC PROCESSING RATES *OURNAL OF THE .ORTH
!MERICAN "ENTHOLOGICAL 3OCIETY n
4UCHMAN ET AL IN NOTE 4UCHMAN .# ET AL IN PRESS .UTRITIONAL QUALITY
OF LEAF DETRITUS ALTERED BY ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC #/
%FFECTS ON DEVELOPMENT OF MOSQUITO LARVAE
&RESHWATER "IOLOGY
4UCHMAN .# ET AL IN PRESS %LEVATED ATMOSPHERIC
#/ ALTERS LEAF LITTER NUTRITIONAL QUALITY FOR STREAM
ECOSYSTEMS !N IN SITU LEAF DECOMPOSITION STUDY
(YDROBIOLOGIA
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-ITSCH 7* AND *' 'OSSELINK EDS 7ETLANDS RD ED .EW 9ORK *OHN 7ILEY 3ONS
+EOUGH *2 ET AL (YDROGEOMORPHIC FACTORS
AND ECOSYSTEM RESPONSES IN COASTAL WETLANDS OF THE
'REAT ,AKES 7ETLANDS n
"RADLEY ., ET AL 0HENOLOGICAL CHANGES
REmECT CLIMATE CHANGE IN 7ISCONSIN 0ROCEEDINGS OF
THE .ATIONAL !CADEMY OF 3CIENCES n
"ROWN *, 3( ,I AND . "HAGABAT ,ONG
TERM TREND TOWARD EARLIER BREEDING IN AN !MERICAN
BIRD ! RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING )N 0ROCEEDINGS OF
THE .ATIONAL !CADEMY OF 3CIENCE n
3CHNEIDER 3( AND 4, 2OOT EDS 7ILDLIFE
2ESPONSES TO #LIMATE #HANGE .ORTH !MERICAN #ASE
3TUDIES 7ASHINGTON $# )SLAND 0RESS
2OOT 4, !TLAS OF 7INTERING .ORTH !MERICAN
"IRDS #HICAGO )LL 5NIVERSITY OF #HICAGO 0RESS
3TRODE 0 5NPUBLISHED DATA FROM A STUDENT AT
5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS AT 5RBANA#HAMPAIGN
0RICE *4 AND 4, 2OOT %FFECTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON BIRD DISTRIBUTIONS AND MIGRATION PATTERNS
)N 0REPARING FOR A #HANGING #LIMATE 4HE 0OTENTIAL
#ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE
'REAT ,AKES /VERVIEW 'REAT ,AKES 2EGIONAL !SSESS
MENT 'ROUP 3OUSOUNIS 0* AND *- "ISANZ EDS !NN
!RBOR -ICH 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN PP n
"RAZNER *# ET AL !SSESSING THE ECOLOGICAL
IMPORTANCE OF COASTAL WETLANDS IN A LARGE LAKE CONTEXT
6ERHANDLUUGEN DER )NTERNATIONALEN 6EREINIGUNG FÓR
4HEORETISCHE UND !NGEWANDTE ,IMNOLOGY n
*UDE $* AND * 0APPAS &ISH UTILIZATION OF
'REAT ,AKES COASTAL WETLANDS *OURNAL OF 'REAT ,AKES
2ESEARCH n
+EOUGH ET AL IN NOTE ,A"AUGH *7 ET AL #HANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC
CIRCULATION PATTERNS AFFECT MIDCONTINENT WETLANDS
SENSITIVE TO CLIMATE ,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
-ORTSCH ,$ AND &( 1UINN #LIMATE
CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR THE 'REAT ,AKES "ASIN ECOSYSTEM
STUDIES ,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
"RIDGHAM 3$ ET AL %COSYSTEM CONTROL OVER
TEMPERATURE AND ENERGY mUX IN NORTHERN PEATLANDS
%COLOGICAL !PPLICATIONS n
-ORTSCH AND 1UINN IN NOTE "RINSON -- #HANGES IN THE FUNCTIONING
OF WETLANDS ALONG ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENTS 7ETLANDS
n
0OIANI +! 7# *OHNSON AND 4'& +ITTEL 3ENSITIVITY OF PRAIRIE WETLAND TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE
AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION CHANGES 7ATER 2ESOURCES
"ULLETIN n
#HAO 0 'REAT ,AKES WATER RESOURCES #LIMATE
CHANGE IMPACT ANALYSIS WITH TRANSIENT '#- SCENARIOS
*OURNAL OF !MERICAN 7ATER 2ESOURCES !SSOCIATION n
1UINN &( IN PRESS ,AKE %RIE WATER LEVEL mUC
TUATIONS #URRENT PERSPECTIVES )N ,AKE %RIE AT THE
-ILLENIUM #HANGES 4RENDS AND 4RAJECTORIES **(
#IBOROWSKI ET AL EDS 4ORONTO /NT #ANADIAN
3CHOLARS 0RESS )NC
!DAMUS 02 ET AL 7ETLAND %VALUATION 4ECH
NIQUE 7%4 ) ,ITERATURE 2EVIEW AND %VALUATION
2ATIONALE 7ETLANDS 2ESTORATION 0ROGRAM 4ECHNICAL
2EPORT 720$% 7ATERWAYS %XPERIMENT 3TATION
6ICKSBURG -ISS 53 !RMY #ORPS OF %NGINEERS
0ATTERSON .* AND 4( 7HILLANS (UMAN
INTERFERENCE WITH NATURAL WATER LEVEL REGIMES IN THE
CONTEXT OF OTHER CULTURAL STRESSES ON 'REAT ,AKES WET
LANDS )N #OASTAL ,AKES 7ETLANDS (( 0RINCE AND
&- $)TRI EDS #HELSEA -ICH ,EWIS 0UBLISHERS
PP n
7ILCOX $! 7ETLAND AND AQUATIC MACRO
PHYTES AS INDICATORS OF ANTHROPOGENIC HYDROLOGIC
DISTURBANCE .ATURAL !REAS *OURNAL n
'ALATOWITSCH 3- ./ !NDERSON AND 0$ !SCHER
)NVASIVENESS OF WETLAND PLANTS IN TEMPERATE
.ORTH !MERICA 7ETLANDS n
'RIGAL $& )NPUTS AND OUTPUTS OF MERCURY
FROM TERRESTRIAL WATERSHEDS ! REVIEW %NVIRONMENTAL
2EVIEW n
-ASTALERZ - ET AL !NTHROPOGENIC ORGANIC
MATTER IN THE 'REAT -ARSH OF THE )NDIANA $UNES
.ATIONAL ,AKESHORE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS )NTERNATIONAL
*OURNAL OF #OAL 'EOLOGY n
'ORHAM % .ORTHERN PEATLANDS 2OLE IN THE
CARBON CYCLE AND PROBABLE RESPONSES TO GLOBAL WARMING
%COLOGICAL !PPLICATIONS n
"RIDGHAM 3$ ET AL 0OTENTIAL FEEDBACKS OF
NORTHERN WETLANDS ON CLIMATE CHANGE "IO3CIENCE n
5PDEGRAFF + ET AL 2ESPONSES OF #/ AND #(
EMISSIONS FROM PEATLANDS TO WARMING AND WATER TABLE
MANIPULATIONS %COLOGICAL !PPLICATIONS n
-ORRIS $0 AND "2 (ARGREAVES 4HE ROLE
OF PHOTOCHEMICAL DEGRADATION OF DISSOLVED ORGANIC
CARBON IN REGULATING THE 56 TRANSPARENCY OF THREE
LAKES ON THE 0OCONO 0LATEAU ,IMNOLOGY AND
/CEANOGRAPHY n
!NKLEY '4 ET AL !SSESSMENT OF THE RISK
OF SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION TO AMPHIBIANS ) $OSE
DEPENDENT INDUCTION OF HINDLIMB MALFORMATIONS IN
THE NORTHERN LEOPARD FROG 2ANA
2ANA PIPIENS
PIPIENS %NVIRON
MENTAL 3CIENCE AND 4ECHNOLOGY n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
+IESECKER *- !2 "LAUSTEIN AND ,+ "ELDEN
#OMPLEX CAUSES OF AMPHIBIAN POPULATION
DECLINES .ATURE n
0ETERSON '3 ET AL !SSESSMENT OF THE RISK
OF SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION TO AMPHIBIANS )) )N SITU
CHARACTERIZATION OF EXPOSURE IN AMPHIBIAN HABITATS
%NVIRONMENTAL 3CIENCE AND 4ECHNOLOGY n
$IAMOND 3! ET AL !SSESSMENT OF THE RISK
OF SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION TO AMPHIBIANS )))
0REDICTION OF IMPACTS IN SELECTED NORTHERN -ID
WESTERN WETLANDS %NVIRONMENTAL 3CIENCE AND
4ECHNOLOGY n
,A"AUGH ET AL IN NOTE -ULHOLLAND 0* ET AL %FFECTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
5NITED 3TATES AND THE 'ULF OF -EXICO (YDROLOGICAL
0ROCESSES n
0OIANI +! ET AL #LIMATE CHANGE AND
NORTHERN PRAIRIE WETLANDS 3IMULATIONS OF LONGTERM
DYNAMICS ,IMNOLOGY AND /CEANOGRAPHY n
'IBBS IN NOTE 3KELLY $ + 0OND DRYING PREDATORS AND THE
DISTRIBUTION OF 0SEUDACRIS TADPOLES #OPEIA n
7ERNER % 0ERSONAL COMMUNICATION WITH
'EORGE +LING 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN *ANUARY
'IBBS *0 )MPORTANCE OF SMALL WETLANDS
FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF LOCAL POPULATIONS OF WETLAND
ASSOCIATED ANIMALS 7ETLANDS n
-AGNUSON ** ," #ROWDER AND 0! -EDVICK
4EMPERATURE AS AN ECOLOGICAL RESOURCE
!MERICAN :OOLOGIST n
-EISNER *$ 0OTENTIAL LOSS OF THERMAL HABITAT
FOR BROOK TROUT DUE TO CLIMATIC WARMING IN TWO
SOUTHERN /NTARIO STREAMS 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN
&ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
*OHNSON 4" AND $/ %VANS 3IZEDEPENDENT
WINTER MORTALITY OF YOUNGOFTHE YEAR WHITE PERCH
#LIMATE WARMING AND INVASION OF THE ,AURENTIAN 'REAT
,AKES 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY
n
-YERS 2! 7HEN DO ENVIRONMENT
RECRUITMENT CORRELATIONS WORK 2EVIEWS IN &ISH "IOLOGY
AND &ISHERIES n
3HUTER ET AL IN NOTE -INNS #+ AND *% -OORE 0REDICTING THE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SPATIAL PATTERN OF
FRESHWATER lSH YIELD CAPABILITY IN EASTERN #ANADIAN
LAKES #LIMATIC #HANGE n
3HUTER "* AND *2 0OST #LIMATE POPU
LATION VIABILITY AND THE ZOOGEOGRAPHY OF TEMPERATE
lSHES 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY
n
*ACKSON AND -ANDRAK IN NOTE 6ANDER :ANDEN -* *- #ASSELMAN AND *"
2ASMUSSEN 3TABLE ISOTOPE EVIDENCE FOR THE
FOOD WEB CONSEQUENCES OF SPECIES INVASIONS IN LAKES
.ATURE n
-AC)SAAC (* 4# 2OBBINS AND -! ,EWIS "IOLOGICAL INVASIONS OF AQUATIC HABITATS IN %UROPE AND
THE 'REAT ,AKES -ODELING SHIPS BALLAST WATER AS
INVASION THREATS TO THE 'REAT ,AKES #ANADIAN *OURNAL
OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES n
'RIGAL IN NOTE A 3HUTER AND 0OST IN NOTE B -INNS #+ AND *% -OORE &ACTORS
LIMITING THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF /NTARIOS FRESHWATER
lSHES 4HE ROLE OF CLIMATE AND OTHER VARIABLES
AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
)N #LIMATE #HANGE AND .ORTHERN &ISH 0OPULATION
2* "EAMISH ED #ANADIAN 3PECIAL 0UBLICATION
IN &ISHERIES AND !QUATC 3CIENCES /TTAWA
/NT .2# 2ESEARCH 0RESS PP n
C -ANDRAK .% 0OTENTIAL INVASION OF
THE 'REAT ,AKES BY lSH SPECIES ASSOCIATED WITH
CLIMATIC WARMING *OURNAL OF 'REAT ,AKES 2ESEARCH
n
D -INNS AND -OORE IN NOTE E 3CHINDLER $7 ET AL %FFECTS OF CLIMATIC
WARMING ON THE LAKES OF THE CENTRAL BOREAL FOREST
3CIENCE n
3CHINDLER ET AL IN NOTE 3TEFAN ET AL IN NOTE 3TEFAN ET AL IN NOTE F -EISNER *$ IN NOTE G *OHNSON AND %VANS IN NOTE H #OUTANT ## 4EMPERATUREOXYGEN
HABITAT FOR FRESHWATER AND COASTAL STRIPED BASS IN
A CHANGING CLIMATE 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN
&ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
#HRISTIE '# AND (! 2EGIER -EASURES
OF OPTIMAL THERMAL HABITAT AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO
YIELDS FOR FOUR COMMERCIAL lSH SPECIES #ANADIAN
*OURNAL OF &ISHERIES AND !QUATIC 3CIENCES n
-ATUSZEK *% %MPIRICAL PREDICTIONS OF lSH
YIELDS OF LARGE .ORTH !MERICAN LAKES 4RANSACTIONS OF
THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
3CHLESINGER $! AND (! 2EGIER #LIMATIC
AND MORPHOEDAPHIC INDICES OF lSH YIELDS FROM NATURAL
LAKES 4RANSACTIONS OF THE !MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY
n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-AGNUSON ** *$ -EISNER AND $+ (ILL 0OTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE THERMAL HABITAT OF 'REAT ,AKES
lSH AFTER GLOBAL CLIMATE WARMING 4RANSACTIONS OF THE
!MERICAN &ISHERIES 3OCIETY n
-AGNUSON ** AND "4 $E3TASIO 4HERMAL
NICHE OF lSHES AND GLOBAL WARMING )N 'LOBAL 7ARM
ING )MPLICATIONS FOR &RESHWATER AND -ARINE &ISH #-
7OOD AND $' -C$ONALD EDS #AMBRIDGE 5+
#AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS PP n
,INDEBERG *$ AND '- !LBERCOOK #LIMATE
CHANGE AND 'REAT ,AKES SHIPPINGBOATING )N 0REPARING
FOR A #HANGING #LIMATE 4HE 0OTENTIAL #ONSEQUENCES
OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE 'REAT ,AKES /VER
VIEW 'REAT ,AKES 2EGIONAL !SSESSMENT 'ROUP 0*
3OUSOUNIS AND *- "ISANZ EDS !NN !RBOR 5NIVERSITY
OF -ICHIGAN PP n !VAILABLE ON THE 'REAT ,AKES
2EGIONAL #LIMATE #HANGE !SSESSMENT WEBSITE AT
WWWGEOMSUEDU GLRA0$&?lLES
2EGIONAL3UMMARY&?72%3?&BOATINGPDF
.ATIONAL !SSESSMENT 3YNTHESIS 4EAM #LIMATE
#HANGE )MPACTS ON THE 5NITED 3TATES 4HE 0OTENTIAL
#ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE .EW
9ORK #AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS
%HEART *7 AND $7 4ORNIL ,OWmOW
FREQUENCY EXACERBATION BY IRRIGATION WITH DRAWLS IN
THE AGRICULTURAL -IDWEST UNDER VARIOUS CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIOS 7ATER 2ESOURCE 2ESEARCH n
$EPARTMENT OF &ISHERIES AND /CEANS #ANADA SURVEY OF RECREATIONAL lSHING IN #ANADA )N
%CONOMIC AND #OMMERCIAL !NALYSIS 2EPORT /TTAWA
/NT &ISHERIES AND /CEANS #ANADA PPn
/NTARIO -INISTRY OF .ATURAL 2ESOURCES /VERVIEW OF /NTARIOS &ORESTS !VAILABLE AT ONTARIOSFO
RESTSMNRONCAFORESTOVERVIEWCFM
53 $EPARTMENT OF !GRICULTURE &OREST 3ERVICE &OREST )NVENTORY !NALYSIS !VAILABLE ON THE 53&3
WEBSITE AT WWWNCRSFSFEDUS !CCESSED
&EBRUARY $AVIS -" 1UATERNARY HISTORY OF DECIDUOUS
FORESTS OF EASTERN .ORTH !MERICA AND %UROPE !NNALS
OF THE -ISSOURI "OTANICAL 'ARDEN n
$AVIS -" ET AL $ISPERSAL VERSUS CLIMATE
%XPANSION OF &AGUS AND 4SUGA INTO THE 5PPER 'REAT
,AKES REGION 6EGETATION n
(E (3 $* -LADENOFF AND 42 #ROW ,INKING AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL AND A LANDSCAPE MODEL
TO STUDY FOREST SPECIES RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
%COLOGICAL -ODELING n
%HMAN *, ET AL !N INTEGRATED ')3 AND
MODELING APPROACH FOR ASSESSING THE TRANSIENT RESPONSE
OF FORESTS OF THE SOUTHERN 'REAT ,AKES REGION TO A
DOUBLED #/ CLIMATE &OREST %COLOGY AND -ANAGEMENT
n
#LARK *3 ET AL %FFECTS OF (OLOCENE CLIMATE
CHANGE ON THE # GRASSLANDWOODLAND BOUNDARY IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 53! %COLOGY n
(EINSELMAN -, &IRE IN THE VIRGIN FORESTS
OF THE "OUNDARY 7ATERS #ANOE !REA -INNESOTA
1UATERNARY 2ESEARCH n
"ARNES "6 $2 :AK 3 $ENTON AND 3( 3PURR
EDS &OREST %COLOGY TH EDITION .EW 9ORK
*OHN 7ILEY 3ONS
#LARK *3 %FFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON lRE
REGIME IN NORTHWESTERN -INNESOTA .ATURE n
#LARK *3 &IRE AND CLIMATE CHANGE DURING THE
LAST YEARS IN NORTHWESTERN -INNESOTA %COLOGICAL
-ONOGRAPHS n
:AK $2 ET AL !TMOSPHERIC #/ SOIL.
AVAILABILITY AND ALLOCATION OF BIOMASS AND NITROGEN BY
0OPULUS TREMULOIDES %COLOGICAL !PPLICATIONS n
:OGG '0 ET AL -ICROBIAL IMMOBILIZATION
AND THE RETENTION OF ANTHROPOGENIC NITRATE IN NORTHERN
HARDWOOD FORESTS %COLOGY n
"ROADMEADOW -3* AND 3" *ACKSON 'ROWTH
RESPONSES OF 1UERCUS PETRAEA &RAXINUS EXCELSIOR AND
0INUS SYLVESTRIS TO ELEVATED CARBON DIOXIDE OZONE AND
WATER SUPPLY .EW 0HYTOLOGY n
+ULL / ET AL 0HOTOSYNTHETIC RESPONSES OF
ASPEN CLONES TO SIMULTANEOUS EXPOSURES OF OZONE AND
#/ #ANADIAN *OURNAL OF &OREST 2ESEARCH n
7ILLIAMS $7 AND !- ,IEBHOLD &OREST
DEFOLIATORS AND CLIMATIC CHANGE 0OTENTIAL CHANGES IN
SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF OUTBREAKS OF WESTERN SPRUCE
BUDWORM ,EPIDOPTERA
,EPIDOPTERA 4ORTRICIDAE
4ORTRICIDAE AND GYPSY MOTH
,EPIDOPTERA
,EPIDOPTERA ,YMANTRIIDAE
,YMANTRIIDAE %NVIRONMENTAL
%NTOMOLOGY n
"EZEMER 4- AND 4( *ONES 0LANTINSECT
HERBIVORE INTERACTIONS IN ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC #/
1UANTITATIVE ANALYSES AND GUILD EFFECTS /IKOS n
,INDROTH 2, #ONSEQUENCES OF ELEVATED ATMO
SPHERIC #/ FOR FOREST INSECTS )N #ARBON $IOXIDE
0OPULATIONS AND #OMMUNITIES # +šRNER AND &! "AZZAZ
EDS 3AN $IEGO #ALIF !CADEMIC 0RESS PP n
"EZEMER AND *ONES IN NOTE #OVIELLA # AND *4 4RUMBLE %FFECTS OF
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC #/ ON INSECTPLANT INTER
ACTIONS #ONSERVATION "IOLOGY n
,INDROTH IN NOTE +OPPER "* AND 2, ,INDROTH %FFECTS
OF ELEVATED CARBON DIOXIDE AND OZONE ON THE PHYTO
CHEMISTRY OF ASPEN AND PERFORMANCE OF AN HERBIVORE
/ECOLOGIA n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
+ENDEIGH 3# "IRD 0OPULATIONS IN %AST #ENTRAL
)LLINOIS &LUCTUATIONS 6ARIATIONS AND $EVELOPMENT
OVER A (ALF#ENTURY )LLINOIS "IOLOGICAL -ONOGRAPHS
#HAMPAIGN )LL 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS 0RESS
0E®UELAS * AND ) &ILELLA 2ESPONSES TO A
WARMING WORLD 3CIENCE n
'RABER *7 AND 22 'RABER &EEDING RATES
OF WARBLERS IN SPRING #ONDOR n
(UNTER !& AND -* ,ECHOWICZ &OLIAGE
QUALITY CHANGES DURING CANOPY DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
NORTHERN HARDWOOD TREES /ECOLOGIA n
4UCKER #* ET AL (IGHER NORTHERN LATITUDE
NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX AND GROWING
SEASON TRENDS FROM TO )NTERNATIONAL
*OURNAL OF "IOMETEOROLOGY n
"OTH # AND -% 6ISSER !DJUSTMENT TO
CLIMATE CHANGE IS CONSTRAINED BY ARRIVAL DATE IN A
LONGDISTANCE MIGRANT BIRD .ATURE n
0ETERSON 2 0ERSONAL COMMUNICATION WITH
9VONNE "ASKIN 2OLF 0ETERSON IS A PROFESSOR OF WILD
LIFE ECOLOGY AT -ICHIGAN 4ECHNOLOGICAL 5NIVERSITY
"LOVIN$EMERS ' AND 0* 7EATHERHEAD 4HERMAL ECOLOGY OF BLACK RAT SNAKES %LAPHE OBSOLETA
IN A THERMALLY CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT %COLOGY n
.ATIONAL !GRICULTURAL 3TATISTICS 3ERVICE #ENSUS OF !GRICULTURE !VAILABLE ON THE 53$!
WEBSITE AT WWWNASSUSDAGOVCENSUS
3TATISTICS #ANADA IN NOTE !NDRESEN *! ET AL 7EATHER IMPACTS ON
MAIZE SOYBEAN AND ALFALFA PRODUCTION IN THE 'REAT
,AKES REGION n !GRONOMY *OURNAL n
2OBESON 3- )NCREASING GROWINGSEASON
LENGTH IN )LLINOIS DURING THE TH CENTURY #LIMATE
#HANGE n
4HOMPSON ,- #LIMATE CHANGE WEATHER
VARIABILITY AND CORN PRODUCTION !GRONOMY *OURNAL
n
!DAMS 2- ET AL %CONOMIC EFFECTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON 53 AGRICULTURE )N %FFECTS OF
#LIMATE #HANGE ON THE 53 %CONOMY 2 -ENDELSOHN
AND * .EUMANN EDS .EW 9ORK #AMBRIDGE
5NIVERSITY 0RESS PP n
)NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE
#LIMATE #HANGE 4HE 3CIENTIlC "ASIS
3UMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS #AMBRIDGE 5+
#AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS
2EILLY * ET AL !GRICULTURE 4HE 0OTENTIAL
#ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE FOR
THE 5NITED 3TATES )N 53 .ATIONAL !SSESSMENT OF THE
0OTENTIAL #ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND
#HANGE 53 'LOBAL #HANGE 2ESEARCH 0ROGRAM .EW
9ORK #AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS PP n
!INSWORTH %! ET AL ! METAANALYSIS OF
ELEVATED #/ EFFECTS ON SOYBEAN 'LYCINE MAX
PHYSIOLOGY GROWTH AND YIELD 'LOBAL #HANGE "IOLOGY
n
-AVROMATIS 4 AND 0$ *ONES #OMPARISON
OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS CONSTRUCTION
METHODOLOGIES FOR IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES
!GRICULTURAL AND &OREST -ETEOROLOGY n
!DAMS ET AL IN NOTE 0FEIFER 2! ET AL #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND
&ARM ,EVEL 2ISK )N %FFECTS OF #LIMATE #HANGE AND
6ARIABILITY ON !GRICULTURAL 0RODUCTIVITY /#
$OERING ))) ET AL EDS "OSTON -ASS +LUWER
!CADEMIC 0UBLISHERS PP n
"OOTSMA ! AND $- "ROWN 2ISK
!NALYSIS OF #ROP (EAT 5NITS !VAILABLE FOR #ORN AND
/THER 7ARM3EASON #ROPS IN /NTARIO !GRICULTURE
AND !GRIFOOD #ANADA TECHNICAL BULLETIN %
/TTAWA /NT #ENTER FOR ,AND AND "IOLOGICAL
2ESOURCES 2ESEARCH
"OOTSMA ! ! SUMMARY OF SOME RESULTS OF
RESEARCH ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON AGRICULTURE IN EASTERN #ANADA #ONFERENCE
PROCEEDINGS FROM #LIMATE #HANGE AND !GRICULTURE
IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION 4HE 0OTENTIAL )MPACTS
AND 7HAT 7E #AN $O ! WORKSHOP HELD -ARCH AT -ICHIGAN 3TATE 5NIVERSITY IN %AST ,ANSING
!VAILABLE ON THE -35 WEBSITE AT WWWGEOMSUEDU
GLRAWORKSHOPAGRIWORKSHPREPORTBOOTSMAHTM
%COLOGICAL 3TRATIlCATION 7ORKING 'ROUP !
.ATIONAL %COLOGICAL &RAMEWORK FOR #ANADA /TTAWA
/NT !GRICULTURE AND !GRIFOOD #ANADA !VAILABLE
ON THE !!&# WEBSITE AT SISAGRGCCACANSIS
PUBLICATIONSECOSTRATINTROHTML
+EYES * *R ET AL %COLOGICAL 5NITS OF THE
%ASTERN 5NITED 3TATES &IRST !PPROXIMATION !TLANTA
'A 53 $EPARTMENT OF !GRICULTURE &OREST 3ERVICE
"OOTSMA IN NOTE $OERING /# ))) *# 2ANDOLPH * 3OUTHWORTH
AND 2! 0FEIFER EDS %FFECTS OF #LIMATE
#HANGE AND 6ARIABILITY ON !GRICULTURAL 0RODUCTION
3YSTEMS "OSTON -ASS +LUWER !CADEMIC 0UBLISHERS
3OUTHWORTH * ET AL #ONSEQUENCES OF
FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CLIMATE
VARIABILITY ON MAIZE YIELDS IN THE -IDWESTERN 5NITED
3TATES !GRICULTURE %COSYSTEMS AND %NVIRONMENT n
!DAMS 2- !GRICULTURE FORESTRY AND
RELATED BENElTS OF AIR POLLUTION CONTROL !MERICAN
*OURNAL OF !GRICULTURAL %CONOMICS n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
(ECK 77 ET AL !SSESSMENT OF CROP LOSSES
FROM OZONE *OURNAL OF THE !IR 0OLLUTION #ONTROL
!SSOCIATION n
4URNPENNY *2 ET AL )NTEGRATED MODELS
OF LIVESTOCK SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE STUDIES 4WO
INTENSIVE SYSTEMS 'LOBAL #HANGE "IOLOGY n
4INGEY $4 ET AL %FFECT OF /ZONE ON #ROPS
)N 4ROPOSPHERIC /ZONE (UMAN (EALTH AND !GRICUL
TURAL )MPACTS $* -C+EE ED "OCA 2ATON &L ,EWIS
0UBLISHERS PP n
"OOTSMA IN NOTE #HANGNON AND +UNKEL IN NOTE #HANGNON 3! 2ECORD mOODPRODUCING RAIN
STORMS OF n *ULY IN THE #HICAGO METROPOLI
TAN AREA ))) )MPACTS AND RESPONSES TO THE mASH
mOODING *OURNAL OF !PPLIED -ETEOROLOGY n
#HIOTTI 1 ) -ORTON AND ! -AAROUF 4OWARDS
AN !DAPTATION !CTION 0LAN #LIMATE #HANGE AND
(EALTH IN THE 4ORONTO.IAGARA 2EGION ! REPORT BY
0OLLUTION 0ROBE &OUNDATION FOR %NVIRONMENT #ANADA
AND (EALTH #ANADA 4ORONTO /NT 0OLLUTION 0ROBE
#HIOTTI ET AL IN NOTE 3OUSOUNIS 0* #0* 3COTT AND -, 7ILSON 0OSSIBLE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON OZONE IN THE 'REAT
,AKES REGION 3OME IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPIRATORY ILLNESS
*OURNAL OF 'REAT ,AKES 2ESEARCH n
7ILSON -, AND 0* 3OUSOUNIS 1UALITY
OF ,IFE (UMAN (EALTH )N 0REPARING FOR A #HANGING
#LIMATE 4HE 0OTENTIAL #ONSEQUENCES OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY
AND #HANGE 0* 3OUSOUNIS AND *- "ISANZ EDS !NN
!RBOR -ICH 4HE 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN 0RESS PP
n
"RYANT #2 ET AL !DAPTATION IN #ANADIAN
AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATIC CHANGE AND VARIABILITY #LIMATIC
#HANGE n
!DAMS ET AL IN NOTE !DAMS 2- "( (URD AND * 2EILLY IN NOTE 53 %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY IN NOTE 2IBAUDO -/ 2EGIONAL %STIMATES OF /FFSITE
$AMAGES FROM 3OIL %ROSION )N 4HE /FF3ITE #OSTS
OF 3OIL %ROSION 0ROCEEDINGS OF A SYMPOSIUM HELD IN
-AY 4% 7ADDELL ED 7ASHINGTON $#
4HE #ONSERVATION &OUNDATION PP n
.ATURAL 2ESOURCES #ANADA IN NOTE 53 %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY %0!
3TATE 'REENHOUSE %MISSION )NVENTORIES !VAILABLE ON
THE %0! WEB SITE AT YOSEMITEEPAGOVOARGLOBALWARMING
NSFCONTENT%MISSIONS3TATEHTML
3TATISTICS #ANADA #ENSUS !NALYSIS 3ERIESˆ
! 0ROlLE OF THE #ANADIAN 0OPULATION 7HERE 7E ,IVE
!VAILABLE ON THE 3TATISTICS #ANADA WEBSITE AT GEODEPOT
STATCANCA$ISS(IGHLIGHTS(IGHLIGHTS?ECFM
#URRIERO &# ET AL !NALYSIS OF THE ASSOCIATION
BETWEEN EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND WATERBORNE DISEASE
OUTBREAKS IN THE 5NITED 3TATES n !MERICAN
*OURNAL OF 0UBLIC (EALTH n
4ERRY $ # 'UINN AND - .EW 3TATE AND
,OCAL .ET 'REENHOUSE 'AS %MISSIONS 2EDUCTION
0ROGRAMS #ASE 3TUDIES !RLINGTON 6A 0EW #ENTER
ON 'LOBAL #LIMATE #HANGE !VAILABLE ON THE 0EW
#ENTER WEBSITE AT WWWPEWCLIMATEORGSTATESINDEXCFM
2OSE *" ET AL #LIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
IN THE 5NITED 3TATES 0OTENTIAL IMPACTS ON WATER AND
FOODBORNE DISEASES CAUSED BY MICROBIOLOGIC AGENTS
%NVIRONMENTAL (EALTH 0ERSPECTIVES 3UPPLn
!MERICAN #OUNCIL FOR AN %NERGY%FlCIENT %CONOMY
3UMMARY TABLE OF PUBLIC BENElT PROGRAMS
AND ELECTRIC UTILITY RESTRUCTURING !VAILABLE ON THE
!#%%% WEBSITE AT WWWACEEEORGBRIEFSMKTABLHTM
'UBLER $* ET AL #LIMATE VARIABILITY AND
CHANGE IN THE 5NITED 3TATES 0OTENTIAL IMPACTS ON
VECTOR AND RODENTBORNE DISEASES %NVIRONMENTAL
(EALTH 0ERSPECTIVES 3UPPLn
-ONATH 40 AND 4& 4SAI 3T ,OUIS %NCE
PHALITIS ,ESSONS LEARNED FROM THE LAST DECADE !MERICAN
*OURNAL OF 4ROPICAL -EDICINE AND (YGIENE 3n3
#OVIELLA AND 4RUMBLE IN NOTE !DAMS 2- ET AL %FFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE !N INTERPRETIVE REVIEW #LIMATE
2ESEARCH n
(ANSON *$ "" "ACKER AND 2- "OURDON #OMPARISON OF THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIOS ON RANGELAND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
!GRICULTURAL 3YSTEMS n
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS 2ENEWABLE
%NERGY 3TANDARDS AT 7ORK IN THE 3TATES #AMBRIDGE
-ASS 5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS !VAILABLE ON
THE 5#3 WEBSITE AT WWWUCSUSAORGCLEAN?ENERGY
RENEWABLE?ENERGYPAGECFMPAGE)$
!MERICAN 7IND %NERGY !SSOCIATION 7IND %NERGY 0ROJECTS 4HROUGHOUT THE 5NITED 3TATES
!VAILABLE AT WWWAWEAORGPROJECTSINDEXHTML
/NTARIO 0OWER 'ENERATION 'REEN 0OWER 'OOD
FOR "USINESS 'OOD FOR THE 0LANET !VAILABLE ON THE
/NTARIO 0OWER 'ENERATION WEBSITE AT WWWOPGCOM
ENV#OMM%?GREEN0OWERASP
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS 2ENEWING
)LLINOIS #AMBRIDGE -ASS 5NION OF #ONCERNED
3CIENTISTS !VAILABLE ON THE 5#3 WEBSITE AT WWW
UCSUSAORGPUBLICATIONCFMPUBLICATION)$
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
%LWELL # AND % 2OTENBERG 'REEN 0OWER
/PPORTUNITIES FOR /NTARIO 6ANCOUVER "# $AVID
3UZUKI &OUNDATION AND 4ORONTO /NT #ANADIAN
)NSTITUTE FOR %NVIRONMENTAL ,AW AND 0OLICY
!NDERSON $ 2 'RANT AND # 2OLFE 4AKING
#REDIT #ANADA AND THE 2OLE OF 3INKS IN )NTERNATIONAL
#LIMATE .EGOTIATIONS 6ANCOUVER "# $AVID 3UZUKI
&OUNDATION AND 7EST #OAST %NVIRONMENTAL ,AW
%NVIRONMENTAL ,AW 0OLICY #ENTER 2EPOWER
ING THE -IDWEST 4HE #LEAN %NERGY $EVELOPMENT
0LAN FOR THE (EARTLAND -INNEAPOLIS -INN %,0#
&RUMHOFF 0# $# 'OETZE AND ** (ARDNER ,INKING 3OLUTIONS TO #LIMATE #HANGE AND "IODIVERSITY
,OSS 4HROUGH THE +YOTO PROTOCOLS #LEAN $EVELOPMENT
-ECHANISM "RIElNG PAPER #AMBRIDGE -ASS 5NION
OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS
&EDERATION OF #ANADIAN -UNICIPALITIES &ORM
ING A 2EGIONAL 4RANSIT 3YSTEM IN THE 2EGION OF 7ATER
LOO 7ATERLOO /NTARIO !VAILABLE ON THE &#- WEBSITE
AT WWWFCMCASCEPCASE?STUDIESTRANSPORTATION
WATERLOO?TRANS?SUMHTM
4ORONTO !TMOSPHERIC &UND 4ORONTO !TMO
SPHERIC &UND TH ANNUAL REPORT 4ORONTO /NT
4ORONTO !TMOSPHERIC &UND !VAILABLE ON THE 4!&
WEBSITE AT WWWCITYTORONTOONCATAF
4ORONTO !TMOSPHERIC &UND -OVING "EYOND
+YOTO 4ORONTOS %MISSION 2EDUCTIONS n
AND THE &UTURE /UTLOOK !VAILABLE ON THE 4!&
WEBSITE AT WWWCITYTORONTOONCATAFREPORTSHTM
)NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE ,AND 5SE ,AND5SE #HANGE AND &ORESTRY )0## SPECIAL
REPORT #AMBRIDGE 5+ #AMBRIDGE 5NIVERSITY 0RESS
"URTRAW $ AND - 4OMAN 4HE "ENElTS OF
2EDUCED !IR 0OLLUTANTS IN THE 53 &ROM 'REENHOUSE
'AS -ITIGATION 0OLICIES !VAILABLE ON THE 2ESOURCES FOR
THE &UTURE WEBSITE AT WWWRFFORGISSUE?BRIEFS
SUMMARIESCCBRFHTM
/NTARIO -EDICAL !SSOCIATION 4HE )LLNESS #OSTS
OF !IR 0OLLUTION IN /NTARIO 4ORONTO /NT /NTARIO
-EDICAL !SSOCIATION
&EDERATION OF #ANADIAN -UNICIPALITIES ,ANDlLL
'AS 2ECOVERY AND 5TILIZATION 4ORONTO /NTARIO
!VAILABLE ON THE &#- WEBSITE AT WWWFCMCASCEP
CASE?STUDIESWASTE?MANAGEMENTTORONTO?WASTE?SUMHTM
&EDERATION OF #ANADIAN -UNICIPALITIES !IR
1UALITY !DVISORY #OMMITTEE -ISSISSAUGA /NTARIO
!VAILABLE ON THE &#- WEBSITE AT WWWFCMCASCEP
CASE?STUDIESAIR?QUALITYMISSISSAUGA?AIR?SUMHTM
2ABE "' 'REENHOUSE AND 3TATEHOUSE 4HE
%VOLVING 3TATE 'OVERNMENT 2OLE IN #LIMATE #HANGE
!RLINGTON 6A 0EW #ENTER ON 'LOBAL #LIMATE
#HANGE !VAILABLE ON THE 0EW #ENTER WEBSITE AT
WWWPEWCLIMATEORGPROJECTSSTATES?GREENHOUSECFM
'REEN #OMMUNITIES !SSOCIATION 2URAL 7ATER
3TEWARDSHIP !VAILABLE ON THE '#! WEBSITE AT
WWWGCACAWATERHTM
53 %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY 4HE
!G34!2 0ROGRAM !VAILABLE ON THE %0! WEBSITE AT
WWWEPAGOVAGSTAR
53 %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY 4HE
2UMINANT ,IVESTOCK %FlCIENCY 0ROGRAM 2,%0
!VAILABLE ON THE %0! WEBSITE AT WWWEPAGOVRLEP
)NTERNATIONAL #OUNCIL OF ,OCAL %NVIRONMENTAL )NITIA
TIVES #ITIES FOR #LIMATE 0ROTECTION #AMPAIGN
53 0ARTICIPANTS !VAILABLE ON THE )#,%) WEBSITE AT
WWWICLEIORGUSPARTICIPANTSCFM
&EDERATION OF #ANADIAN -UNICIPALITIES 0ARTNERS
FOR #LIMATE 0ROTECTION 0ARTICIPANTS !VAILABLE ON THE
&#- WEBSITE AT WWWFCMCASCEPSUPPORT0#0PCP?
PARTICIPANTSHTM
#HICAGO #LIMATE %XCHANGE 4HE #HICAGO
#LIMATE %XCHANGE WEBSITE AT WWWCHICAGOCLIMATEX
COMHTMLABOUTHTML
.ATIONAL 2OUND 4ABLE ON THE %NVIRONMENT AND THE
%CONOMY #ANADA 0ROGRESS ON 'REENHOUSE
'AS %MISSIONS 4RADING !VAILABLE ON THE .24%%
WEBSITE AT WWWNRTEETRNEECA%MISSIONS4RADINGEN
OVERVIEW?COUNTRIES?#ANADAHTM
-ICHIGAN ,AND 5SE )NSTITUTE ,IQUID GOLD RUSH
#ITIZENS CALL FOR LEGISLATIVE ACTION "EULAH -ICH -ICHIGAN
,AND 5SE )NSTITUTE !VAILABLE FROM THE -,5) WEBSITE
AT WWWMLUIORGPUBLICATIONSASP
3CHNEIDER + !CTING AS A REGION TO TAME
SPRAWL 'RAND 2APIDS LEADS THE WAY IN -ICHIGAN
'REAT ,AKES "ULLETIN n
'REAT ,AKES )NFORMATION .ETWORK %URASIAN
7ATERMILFOIL IN THE 'REAT ,AKES 2EGION !VAILABLE ON
THE ',). WEBSITE AT WWWGREATLAKESNETENVTmORA
FAUNAINVASIVEMILFOILHTML
'LEICK 0( ET AL 4HE 0OTENTIAL #ONSE
QUENCES OF #LIMATE 6ARIABILITY AND #HANGE ON THE
7ATER 3ECTOR ! REPORT OF THE .ATIONAL 7ATER !SSESS
MENT 'ROUP FOR THE 53'#20 /AKLAND #ALIF 0ACIlC
)NSTITUTE FOR 3TUDIES IN $EVELOPMENT %NVIRONMENT
AND 3ECURITY
,EWANDOWSKI * AND $ 3CHIMMELPFENNING %CONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR 53 AGRI
CULTURE !SSESSING RECENT EVIDENCE ,AND %CONOMICS
n
$ALE 6( ET AL #LIMATE CHANGE AND FOREST
DISTURBANCE "IO3CIENCE n
)RLAND ,# ET AL !SSESSING SOCIOECONOMIC
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 53 FORESTS WOOD PRODUCT
MARKETS AND FOREST RECREATION "IO3CIENCE n
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#ONTRIBUTING !UTHORS
iœÀ}iʏˆ˜} THE LEAD AUTHOR OF THIS REPORT IS A PROFESSOR
OF BIOLOGY IN THE $EPARTMENT OF %COLOGY AND %VOLUTIONARY
"IOLOGY AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN (IS AREAS OF SPECIAL
IZATION INCLUDE LIMNOLOGY THE STUDY OF LAKES AND STREAMS
CLIMATE CHANGE BIOGEOCHEMISTRY AND ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE (E
HAS RESEARCH PROGRAMS THAT STUDY THE FUNCTIONING OF AQUATIC
ECOSYSTEMS IN THE !RCTIC THE TROPICS AND THE TEMPERATE ZONE
$R +LING RECEIVED A .ATIONAL !CADEMY OF 3CIENCES 2ESEARCH
)NVESTIGATOR AWARD AND A 5NITED .ATIONS 3ASAKAWA #ERTIFI
CATE OF -ERIT AND HE IS A .ATIONAL 3CIENCE &OUNDATION 0RESI
DENTIAL &ACULTY &ELLOW AND A FELLOW OF THE !!!3 (E HAS
PARTICIPATED IN OVER INTERNATIONAL PANELS REVIEW BOARDS
AND CONFERENCES HELD BY .3& .2# AND 5.%3#/ MANY
OF WHICH INVOLVED ISSUES OF GLOBAL CHANGE $R +LING RECEIVED
HIS 0H$ IN FROM $UKE 5NIVERSITY
>̅>Àˆ˜iÊ>ޅœi IS AN INDEPENDENT RESEARCH CONSULTANT
SPECIALIZING IN THE SCIENCEPOLICY INTERFACE (ER AREAS OF EX
PERTISE INCLUDE THE IMPACT OF HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON CLIMATE
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND CONTROL POLICIES AND NUMERICAL
MODELING OF THE EARTHATMOSPHERE SYSTEM -S (AYHOE
RECEIVED HER -3 IN !TMOSPHERIC 3CIENCES FROM THE 5NIVER
SITY OF )LLINOIS AT 5RBANA#HAMPAIGN (ER CLIENTS AND COLLAB
ORATORS SPAN A WIDE RANGE OF GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE AGEN
CIES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER INCLUDING %NVIRONMENT
#ANADA THE %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION !GENCY THE .ATIONAL
2OUND 4ABLE ON %NERGY THE %NVIRONMENT THE /NTARIO
-INISTRY OF %NERGY THE %NVIRONMENT AND THE $EPART
MENT OF %NERGY 2ECENTLY SHE HAS BEEN FUNDED BY THE
)LLINOIS)NDIANA 3EA 'RANT THROUGH THE 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS
TO EVALUATE PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE 'REAT
,AKES AREA 3HE PROVIDED THE ANALYSES OF HISTORICAL CLIMATE
DATA AND FUTURE MODEL PROJECTIONS USED AS THE BASIS OF
IMPACT ASSESSMENTS THROUGHOUT THE REPORT
ÕVˆ˜`>ʜ…˜Ãœ˜ IS THE !SSOCIATE $IRECTOR OF THE #ENTER
FOR 7ATER AND THE %NVIRONMENT .ATURAL 2ESOURCES 2ESEARCH
)NSTITUTE 5NIVERSITY OF -INNESOTA $ULUTH (ER RESEARCH
FOCUSES ON QUANTIFYING THE EFFECTS OF LAND USE AND GEOLOGY
ON HABITAT AND BIOTA IN WETLANDS AND STREAMS !NOTHER
RESEARCH EMPHASIS INCLUDES THE DEVELOPMENT OF INDICATORS OF
STREAM AND WETLAND ECOSYSTEM CONDITIONS USING AMPHIBIANS
INVERTEBRATES AND FISH AS FOCAL SPECIES !S A LANDSCAPE AND
AQUATIC ECOLOGIST SHE HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN RESEARCH AND DIS
CUSSIONS ABOUT THE CAUSAL FACTORS OF FROG MALFORMATIONS OVER
THE PAST FIVE YEARS 4HE MAJORITY OF HER WORK HAS TAKEN PLACE
IN THE -IDWESTERN 5NITED 3TATES AND IN THE 'REAT ,AKES "ASIN
WITH A PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES )N
THIS REPORT SHE CONTRIBUTED TO SECTIONS ABOUT LAND USE PATTERNS
AND CONFOUNDING EFFECTS OF HUMAN DISTURBANCES ON ECOSYS
TEMS AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AS WELL AS SECTIONS ON THE
ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS ON RIVERS WETLANDS AND AMPHIBIANS $R
*OHNSON RECEIVED HER 0H$ FROM -ICHIGAN 3TATE 5NIVERSITY
AND HAS WORKED IN HER CURRENT POSITION AT THE .ATURAL
2ESOURCES 2ESEARCH )NSTITUTE SINCE ,ˆV…>À`ʈ˜`ÀœÌ… IS 0ROFESSOR OF %COLOGY IN THE $EPART
MENT OF %NTOMOLOGY AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF 7ISCONSIN-ADISON
(IS RESEARCH INTERESTS INCLUDE THE IMPACTS OF GLOBAL ENVIRON
MENTAL CHANGE EG ELEVATED CARBON DIOXIDE TROPOSPHERIC
OZONE AND 56 RADIATION ON PLANTS AND PLANTFEEDING INSECTS
$R ,INDROTH RECEIVED HIS 0H$ IN ECOLOGY FROM THE 5NIVER
SITY OF )LLINOIS5RBANA FOLLOWED BY AN .3& 0OSTDOCTORAL
&ELLOWSHIP AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF 7ISCONSIN )N HE
RECEIVED A &ULBRIGHT 3ENIOR 2ESEARCH 3CHOLAR AWARD TO STUDY
THE IMPACTS OF ENHANCED 56 RADIATION IN .EW :EALAND $R
,INDROTH HAS SERVED ON THE EDITORIAL BOARDS OF SEVERAL JOUR
NALS IN ECOLOGY AND ON GRANT REVIEW PANELS FOR THE .ATIONAL
3CIENCE &OUNDATION AND 53 $EPARTMENT OF !GRICULTURE
)N THIS REPORT HE CONTRIBUTED TO SECTIONS DEALING WITH
INSECT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE
œ…˜Ê°Ê>}˜Õܘ IS AN %MERITUS 0ROFESSOR OF :OOLOGY AND
PAST $IRECTOR OF THE #ENTER FOR ,IMNOLOGY AT THE 5NIVERSITY
OF 7ISCONSIN-ADISON (IS RESEARCH INTERESTS ARE IN LONG
TERM REGIONAL ECOLOGY FISH AND FISHERIES ECOLOGY AND THE
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON INLAND WATERS
BIODIVERSITY AND INVASIONS (E PLAYED A LEAD ROLE IN THE LAKES
AND STREAMS PORTIONS OF THE AND !SSESSMENTS BY
)NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE #HANGE (E HAS SERVED
ON THE 3CIENCE !DVISORY "OARDS OF THE )NTERNATIONAL *OINT
#OMMISSION ON 7ATER 1UALITY AND THE 'REAT ,AKES &ISHERIES
#OMMISSION (E SERVED ON THE /CEAN 3TUDIES "OARD OF THE
.ATIONAL 2ESEARCH #OUNCIL AND HAS CHAIRED SEVERAL #OMMIT
TEES FOR .2# $R -AGNUSON HAS AUTHORED MORE THAN PUBLICATIONS AND FIVE BOOKS AND WAS 0RINCIPAL )NVESTIGATOR
OF THE .ORTH 4EMPERATE ,AKES ,ONG4ERM %COLOGICAL
2ESEARCH 3ITE (E EARNED HIS 0H$ FROM 5NIVERSITY OF "RIT
ISH #OLUMBIA #ANADA IN ZOOLOGY WITH A MINOR IN OCEANO
GRAPHY )N THIS REPORT HE CONTRIBUTED TO SECTIONS ON LAKES
ICE WETLANDS FISHERIES AND SOLUTION STRATEGIES
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
-ÕÃ>˜˜iʜÃiÀ IS STAFF SCIENTIST FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AT THE
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS (ER CURRENT WORK FOCUSES ON
PROVIDING SOUND SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION TO SUPPORT POLICY
MAKING ON CLIMATE CHANGE (ER RESEARCH INTERESTS INCLUDE
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON COASTAL AREAS ENVIRONMENTAL HAZ
ARDS THE HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE INTER
ACTION BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY $R -OSER RECEIVED HER
0H$ IN 'EOGRAPHY FROM #LARK 5NIVERSITY 7ORCESTER -ASS
AND COMPLETED A TWOYEAR POSTDOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP AT
(ARVARDS +ENNEDY 3CHOOL OF 'OVERNMENT BEFORE JOINING
5#3 /VER THE LAST YEARS SHE HAS PARTICIPATED IN REVIEWS OF
%0!S 'LOBAL #HANGE 0ROGRAMS THE 53 'LOBAL #HANGE
2ESEARCH 0ROGRAM AND ITS SUCCESSOR THE #LIMATE #HANGE
3CIENCE 0ROGRAM AS WELL AS OF VARIOUS CHAPTERS OF )0## AND
53 .ATIONAL !SSESSMENT REPORTS )N THIS REPORT SHE CONTRI
BUTED TO SECTIONS DEALING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON
URBAN AREAS HUMAN HEALTH AND SOLUTIONS STRATEGIES
-Ìi«…i˜Ê*œ>ÃŽÞ HOLDS THE &ESLER,AMPERT #HAIR IN
%COLOGICAL%NVIRONMENTAL %CONOMICS AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF
-INNESOTA (E IS A FACULTY MEMBER OF THE $EPARTMENT OF
!PPLIED %CONOMICS AND OF THE $EPARTMENT OF %COLOGY %VO
LUTION AND "EHAVIOR AND IS ALSO CODIRECTOR OF 'RADUATE
3TUDIES FOR THE #ONSERVATION "IOLOGY 0ROGRAM (E RECEIVED
HIS 0H$ IN ECONOMICS FROM THE 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN IN
(E IS CURRENTLY SERVING AS A MEMBER OF THE %NVIRON
MENTAL %CONOMICS !DVISORY #OMMITTEE OF 53 %0!S 3CIENCE
!DVISORY "OARD AS A MEMBER ON A .ATIONAL 2ESEARCH #OUNCIL
#OMMITTEE ON !SSESSING AND 6ALUING 3ERVICES OF !QUATIC AND
2ELATED 4ERRESTRIAL %COSYSTEMS AND AS #O#HAIR FOR #ORE
0ROJECT $EVELOPING THE 3CIENCE OF #ONSERVATION AND 3US
TAINABLE 5SE OF "IODIVERSITY FOR $)6%23)4!3 (IS RESEARCH
INTERESTS INCLUDE BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION AND ENDANGERED
SPECIES POLICY INTEGRATING ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
GAME THEORY APPLICATIONS TO NATURAL RESOURCE USE COMMON
PROPERTY RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION (E RECENTLY
EDITED A BOOK ENTITLED 4HE %CONOMICS OF "IODIVERSITY #ONSERVA
TION )N THIS REPORT HE CONTRIBUTED TO SECTIONS ON THE ECONO
MIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SOLUTIONS
-VœÌÌÊ,œLˆ˜Ãœ˜ IS A PROFESSOR IN THE $EPARTMENT OF !NI
MAL "IOLOGY AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS (IS RESEARCH INTERESTS
INCLUDE THE EFFECTS OF FOREST FRAGMENTATION ON MIGRATORY BIRDS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE BREEDING SEASON -OST OF HIS RECENT WORK
HAS BEEN IN THE -IDWESTERN 5NITED 3TATES BUT HE HAS ALSO
WORKED EXTENSIVELY IN THE .EOTROPICS AND IN .ORTH !MERICAN
GRASSLANDS AND SCRUBLANDS (IS STUDENTS ALSO WORK ON EFFECTS
OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TIMING OF MIGRATION AND ON
THE EFFECTS OF HYDROLOGY ON BIRDS OF FLOODPLAIN FORESTS $R
2OBINSON HAS ALSO BEEN INVOLVED IN DEVELOPING MANAGEMENT
PLANS FOR GRASSLAND AND FOREST RESERVES $R 2OBINSON RECEIVED
HIS 0H$ FROM 0RINCETON 5NIVERSITY !S OF -AY HE
WILL BE MOVING TO THE &LORIDA -USEUM OF .ATURAL (ISTORY
5NIVERSITY OF &LORIDA WHERE HE WILL BE THE +ATHERINE
/RDWAY #HAIR OF %COSYSTEM #ONSERVATION )N THIS REPORT
HE CONTRIBUTED TO SECTIONS ON THE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE ON WILDLIFE
Àˆ>˜Ê-…ÕÌiÀ IS A RESEARCH SCIENTIST WITH THE /NTARIO -INIS
TRY OF .ATURAL 2ESOURCES AND ADJUNCT PROFESSOR IN THE $EPART
MENT OF :OOLOGY 5NIVERSITY OF 4ORONTO (IS RESEARCH HAS
FOCUSED ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF FRESHWATER FISH AND
PARTICULARLY ON THE ROLE OF WEATHER IN GENERATING SHORTTERM
VARIATION IN ABUNDANCE AND THE ROLE OF CLIMATE IN SHAPING
BOUNDARIES OF SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS (E HAS WORKED ON POPULA
TIONS OF SMALLMOUTH BASS WALLEYE AND LAKE TROUT IN THE
'REAT ,AKES AND IN THE SMALLER LAKES OF !LGONQUIN 0ARK (E
HAS AUTHORED OVER PAPERS IN THE PEER REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC
LITERATURE AND IS A MEMBER OF THE "OARD OF 4ECHNICAL %XPERTS
OF THE 'REAT ,AKES &ISHERIES #OMMISSION $R 3HUTER WORKED
ON THE LIMNOLOGY AND FISHERIES SECTIONS OF THIS REPORT
ˆV…iiÊ7>˜`iÀ IS AN ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR IN THE 5NIVERSITY
OF )LLINOIS $EPARTMENT OF .ATURAL 2ESOURCES AND %NVIRON
MENTAL 3CIENCES WHERE SHE TEACHES ABOUT SOIL ECOLOGY COM
POSITION AND PROCESSES AND ADVISES BOTH GRADUATE AND UNDER
GRADUATE STUDENTS 3HE HAS SERVED AS THE #HAIR OF THE .ORTH
#ENTRAL 2EGION #OMMITTEE ON 3OIL /RGANIC -ATTER AND
"IOCHEMISTRY ON 53$!.2) 2EVIEW 0ANELS FOR 3OIL "IOLOGY
AND "IOCHEMISTRY AND -ANAGED %COSYSTEMS AND HAS PARTICI
PATED AS AN EXPERT ON TEAMS EVALUATING LONGTERM AGRICUL
TURAL STUDIES 3HE IS AN !SSOCIATE %DITOR FOR THE 3OIL 3CIENCE
3OCIETY OF !MERICA 333! *OURNAL AND NOW SERVES ON THE
COMMITTEE FOR THE 3PECIAL 0UBLICATION 3OIL #ARBON -ANAGE
MENT 'UIDE AS WELL AS THE !D (OC #OMMITTEE ON 'LOBAL
%NHANCEMENT OF 3OIL /RGANIC -ATTER $R 7ANDER RECEIVED
HER 0H$ IN IN !GRONOMY3OIL 3CIENCE FROM THE /HIO
3TATE 5NIVERSITY )N THIS REPORT SHE CONTRIBUTED SECTIONS
ON AGRICULTURAL RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND POTENTIAL
MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
>ÀŽÊ7ˆÃœ˜ IS CURRENTLY $IRECTOR OF THE 'LOBAL (EALTH
0ROGRAM AND !SSOCIATE 0ROFESSOR OF %PIDEMIOLOGY AT THE
5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN WHERE HIS RESEARCH AND TEACHING COVER
THE BROAD AREA OF ECOLOGY AND EPIDEMIOLOGY OF INFECTIOUS
DISEASES !FTER EARNING HIS DOCTORAL DEGREE FROM (ARVARD 5NI
VERSITY IN HE WORKED AT THE 0ASTEUR )NSTITUTE IN $AKAR
3ENEGAL n WAS ON THE FACULTY AT THE 9ALE 5NIVERSITY
3CHOOL OF -EDICINE n AND THEN JOINED THE 5NIVERSITY
OF -ICHIGAN $R 7ILSONS RESEARCH ADDRESSES THE ENVIRON
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
MENTAL DETERMINANTS OF ZOONOTIC AND ARTHROPODBORNE
DISEASES THE EVOLUTION OF VECTORHOSTPARASITE SYSTEMS AND
THE ANALYSIS OF TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS (E IS AN AUTHOR OF
MORE THAN JOURNAL ARTICLES BOOK CHAPTERS AND RESEARCH
REPORTS AND HAS SERVED ON NUMEROUS GOVERNMENTAL ADVISORY
GROUPS CONCERNED WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND INFECTIOUS
DISEASE EPIDEMIOLOGY (E RECENTLY SERVED AS A MEMBER OF
THE .2# PANEL ON #LIMATE %COSYSTEMS )NFECTIOUS $ISEASES
AND (UMAN (EALTH AND THE )/- PANEL ON %MERGING -ICRO
BIAL 4HREATS IN THE ST #ENTURY (E CONTRIBUTED TO THE
HEALTH IMPACTS SECTIONS AND SOLUTIONS IN THIS REPORT
œ˜>`Ê7ÕiLLià IS (EAD OF THE $EPARTMENT OF !TMO
SPHERIC 3CIENCES AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS AND 0ROFESSOR
IN THAT DEPARTMENT AS WELL AS IN THE $EPARTMENT OF %LECTRICAL
AND #OMPUTER %NGINEERING (IS RESEARCH HAS EMPHASIZED
THE DEVELOPMENT AND USE OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO STUDY THE CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL PROCESSES THAT
DETERMINE ITS STRUCTURE (E IS THE AUTHOR OF OVER SCIENTIFIC
ARTICLES AND DIRECTS A NUMBER OF RESEARCH PROJECTS TO IMPROVE
OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPACTS THAT HUMANMADE AND
NATURAL TRACE GASES MAY BE HAVING ON THE %ARTHS CLIMATE
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND OZONE (E DEVELOPED THE CON
CEPT OF /ZONE $EPLETION 0OTENTIALS
0OTENTIALS±
±USED
±
USED IN MOST POLICY
MAKING TO PROTECT THE OZONE LAYER EG THE -ONTREAL
0ROTOCOL AND ITS AMENDMENTS±AND
±AND IS COAUTHOR OF AN
±
ANALOGOUS CONCEPT 'LOBAL 7ARMING 0OTENTIALS CURRENTLY
USED TO DESCRIBE GREENHOUSE GASES AND THEIR POTENTIAL
EFFECTS ON CLIMATE $R 7UEBBLES HAS LED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERAL NEW RESEARCH CENTERS AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF )LLINOIS
INCLUDING A CENTER ON THE REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON THE -IDWEST (E IS A LEAD AUTHOR ON A NUMBER OF INTER
NATIONAL ASSESSMENTS RELATED TO STRATOSPHERIC OZONE AND
CLIMATE CHANGE $R 7UEBBLES LED THE ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THIS REPORT
$ONALD :AK IS A PROFESSOR IN THE 3CHOOL OF .ATURAL 2E
SOURCES AND %NVIRONMENT AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN
(IS RESEARCH FOCUSES ON THE FUNCTION OF SOIL MICROBIAL COM
MUNITIES IN THE BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING OF CARBON AND NITRO
GEN IN TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS (E AND SEVERAL COLLEAGUES
HAVE ESTABLISHED LARGESCALE FIELD EXPERIMENTS TO INVESTIGATE
THE INFLUENCES OF RISING ATMOSPHERIC #/ AND / ON FORESTS
IN THE UPPER 'REAT ,AKES 4HEY ALSO HAVE INITIATED LONG
TERM EXPERIMENTS TO STUDY THE INFLUENCE OF ATMOSPHERIC
NITROGEN DEPOSITION ON FOREST IN THE REGION $R :AK SERVES
ON THE EDITORIAL BOARDS OF %COLOGY %COLOGICAL -ONOGRAPHS
AND 3OIL 3CIENCE 3OCIETY OF !MERICA (E RECEIVED HIS 0H$
DEGREE FROM -ICHIGAN 3TATE 5NIVERSITY CONDUCTED POST
DOCTORAL RESEARCH AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF -INNESOTA AND HAS
BEEN A 0ROFESSOR AT THE 5NIVERSITY OF -ICHIGAN SINCE $R :AK CONTRIBUTED TO SECTIONS ON FOREST AND FORESTRY
IMPACTS AS WELL AS IMPACTS ON OTHER TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS
IN THIS REPORT
3TEERING #OMMITTEE
! NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE PROVIDED GUIDANCE AND OVERSIGHT TO ENSURE THE
SCIENTIlC REVIEW AND INTEGRITY OF THE REPORT 4HE 3TEERING #OMMITTEE MEMBERS WERE
À°ÊœÕˆÃÊ°Ê*ˆÌiŽ> #HAIR !PPALACHIAN ,ABORATORY
5NIVERSITY OF -ARYLAND #ENTER FOR %NVIRONMENTAL 3CIENCE &ROSTBURG -D
À°Ê>ÀÞÊ>ÀLiÀ %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA 7ASHINGTON $#
À°Ê
ÀˆÃ̜«…iÀʈi` #ARNEGIE )NSTITUTION OF 7ASHINGTON $EPARTMENT OF 0LANT "IOLOGY 3TANFORD #ALIF
À°Ê*iÌiÀÊ
°ÊÀՓ…œvv 5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS #AMBRIDGE -ASS
À°ÊiœvvÊi> #OLUMBIA 5NIVERSITY 'RADUATE 3CHOOL OF "USINESS .EW 9ORK .9
À°ÊiÀÀÞÊiˆœ -ARINE "IOLOGICAL ,ABORATORIES 7OODS (OLE -ASS
À°ÊÕ`ÞÊiÞiÀ 5NIVERSITY OF 'EORGIA )NSTITUTE OF %COLOGY !THENS 'A
À°Ê7ˆˆ>“Ê-V…iȘ}iÀ $UKE 5NIVERSITY .ICHOLAS 3CHOOL OF THE %NVIRONMENT $URHAM .#
À°Ê-ÌiÛi˜Ê-V…˜iˆ`iÀ 3TANFORD 5NIVERSITY $EPARTMENT OF "IOLOGICAL 3CIENCES AND THE
)NSTITUTE FOR )NTERNATIONAL 3TUDIES 3TANFORD #ALIF
# / . & 2/ . 4 ) . ' # , ) - !4 % # ( ! . ' % ) . 4 ( % ' 2 % !4 , ! + % 3 2 % ' ) / .
5NION OF #ONCERNED 3CIENTISTS s 4HE %COLOGICAL 3OCIETY OF !MERICA
#ONFRONTING
#LIMATE #HANGE
IN THE 'REAT
,AKES 2EGION
)MPACTS ON /UR
#OMMUNITIES AND %COSYSTEMS
/…iÊ1˜ˆœ˜ÊœvÊ
œ˜ViÀ˜i`Ê-Vˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃʈÃÊ>ʘœ˜Ê«ÀœwÊÌÊ
«>À̘iÀň«ÊœvÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃÊ>˜`ÊVˆÌˆâi˜ÃÊVœ“ÊLˆ˜Êˆ˜}Ê
Àˆ}ʜÀʜÕÃÊ ÃVˆi˜ÌˆwÊVÊ >˜>ÞÈÃ]Ê ˆ˜˜œÛ>̈ÛiÊ «œÊˆÊVÞÊ
`iÛiœ«“i˜ÌÊ >˜`Ê ivviV̈ÛiÊ VˆÌˆâi˜Ê >`ÊۜÊV>ÊVÞÊ
̜Ê>V…ˆiÛiÊ«À>VÊ̈ÊV>Êi˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜Ì>ÊÜʏÕÊ̈œ˜Ã°Ê
ÃÌ>LˆÃ…i`ʈ˜Ê£™È™]ÊÜiÊÃiiŽÊ̜Êi˜ÊÃÕÀiÊ̅>ÌÊ>Ê
«iœÊ«iÊ …>ÛiÊ Vi>˜Ê >ˆÀ]Ê i˜iÀ}ÞÊ >˜`Ê ÌÀ>˜ÃÊ«œÀʇ
Ì>Ê̈œ˜]Ê>ÃÊÜiÊ>ÃÊvœœ`Ê̅>ÌʈÃÊ«ÀœÊ`ÕVi`ʈ˜Ê>ÊÃ>viÊ
>˜`ÊÃÕÃÊÌ>ˆ˜Ê>Liʓ>˜Ê˜iÀ°Ê7iÊÃÌÀˆÛiÊvœÀÊ>ÊvÕÌÕÀiÊ
̅>ÌʈÃÊvÀiiÊvÀœ“Ê̅iÊ̅Ài>ÌÃʜvÊ}œL>ÊÜ>À“ˆ˜}Ê
>˜`ʘÕVi>ÀÊÜ>À]Ê>˜`Ê>Ê«>˜iÌÊ̅>ÌÊÃÕ««œÀÌÃÊ>Ê
ÀˆV…Ê`ˆÛiÀÈÌÞʜvʏˆvi°Ê-œÕ˜`ÊÃVˆi˜ViÊ}Ո`iÃʜÕÀÊ
ivÊvœÀÌÃÊ̜ÊÃiVÕÀiÊV…>˜}iÃʈ˜Ê}œÛÊiÀ˜Ê“i˜ÌÊ«œ‡
ʈÊVÞ]ÊVœÀ«œÀ>ÌiÊ«À>V̈ViÃÊ>˜`ÊVœ˜ÊÃՓÊiÀÊV…œˆViÃÊ
̅>ÌÊ܈Ê«ÀœÌiVÌÊ>˜`ʈ“«ÀœÛiÊ̅iʅi>Ì…ÊœvʜÕÀÊ
i˜ÛˆÀœ˜“i˜ÌÊ }œL>Þ]Ê ˜>ÊÌ ˆœ˜Ê> ÊÞÊ >˜`Ê ˆ˜Ê
Vœ“Ê“ÕʘˆÊ̈iÃÊ̅ÀœÕ}…œÕÌÊ̅iÊ1˜ˆÌÊi`Ê-Ì>ÌiðʘÊ
ŜÀÌ]Ê1
-ÊÃiiŽÃÊ>Ê}Ài>ÌÊV…>˜}iʈ˜Ê…Õʓ>˜ÊˆÊÌÞ½ÃÊ
ÃÌiÜÊ>À`Êň«ÊœvÊ̅iÊi>À̅°Ê
/…iÊ1˜ˆœ˜ÊœvÊ
œ˜ViÀ˜i`Ê-Vˆi˜ÌˆÃÌÃ
/ܜÊÀ>Ì̏iÊ-µÕ>Ài]Ê
>“LÀˆ`}i]ÊÊäÓÓÎn‡™£äx
*…œ˜i\ÊȣLJx{LJxxxÓÊUÊ>Ý\ÊȣLJnÈ{‡™{äx
‡“>ˆ\ÊÕVÃJÕVÃÕÃ>°œÀ}ÊUÊ7iL\ÊÜÜÜ°ÕVÃÕÃ>°œÀ}
œÕ˜`i`Ê ˆ˜Ê £™£x]Ê Ì…iÊ Vœœ}ˆV>Ê -œVˆiÌÞÊ œvÊ
“iÀʈÊV>Ê­-®ÊˆÃÊ>ÊÃVˆi˜ÌˆwÊV]ʘœ˜Ê«ÀœwÊÌʜÀÊ}>ʇ
˜ˆÊâ>Ê̈œ˜Ê ÜˆÌ…Ê “œÀiÊ Ì…>˜Ê Ç]äääÊ «ÀœÊviÃÊȜ˜Ê>Ê
“i“ÊL iÀÃ°Ê /…ÀœÕ}…Ê ˆÌÃÊ Ài«œÀÌÃ]Ê œÕÀʘ >Ã]Ê
“i“LiÀň«ÊÀiÊÃi>ÀV…]Ê>˜`ÊiÝ«iÀÌÊÌiÃ̈“œ˜ÞÊ
̜Ê
œ˜}ÀiÃÃ]Ê-ÊÃiiŽÃÊ̜ʫÀœÊ“œÌiÊ̅iÊÀiÇ
«œ˜ÃˆLiÊ >«Ê«ˆÊV>Ê̈œ˜Ê œvÊ iVœÊœ}ʈÊV>Ê `>Ì>Ê >˜`Ê
«Àˆ˜ÊVˆÊ«iÃÊ ÌœÊ Ì…iÊ ÃœṎœ˜Ê œvÊ i˜ÊۈÊÀœ˜Ê“i˜ÊÌ>Ê
«ÀœLi“ð
/…iÊVœœ}ˆV>Ê-œVˆiÌÞʜvʓiÀˆV>
£ÇäÇÊÊ-ÌÀiiÌÊ 7]Ê-Ìi°Ê{ää]Ê7>ň˜}̜˜]Ê
ÊÓäääÈ
*…œ˜i\ÊÓäӇnηnÇÇÎÊUÊ>Ý\ÊÓäӇnηnÇÇx
‡“>ˆ\ÊiÃ>…µJiÃ>°œÀ}ÊUÊ7iL\ÊiÃ>°Ã`ÃV°i`Õ