Energy Scenarios for Cape Town
EXPLORING THE IMPLICATIONS OF DIFFERENT ENERGY FUTURES FOR THE CITY
Energy Research Centre
National LTMS: Two Scenarios frame the choice for South Africa
1,800
1,600
Growth without Constraints
1,200
1,000
THE GAP
Current Development
Plans
800
600
400
Required by Science
200
7
20
30
20
33
20
36
20
39
20
42
20
45
20
48
20
2
4
20
2
1
20
2
8
20
1
5
20
1
2
20
1
9
20
0
6
20
0
3
20
0
Mt CO 2 -equivalent
1,400
Energy Growth into the Future
Energy consumption for ‘Business as Usual’ is expected to almost quadruple by 2050
Greenhouse Gas Emissions into the Future
Greenhouse gas emissions associated with the ‘Business as Usual’ energy growth is untenable given the national and international pressures to reduce carbon emissions.
KEY ISSUE : PROCEEDING ALONG A BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO HAS SIGNIFICANT RISKS
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Higher energy expenditure for the city’s occupants Vulnerability to power price hikes
Inefficient economy
Fewer jobs taken advantage of in the energy sector A vulnerability to a carbon constrained future
Susceptible to oil price rises (‘End of cheap oil’)
Peak Electricity vulnerability Energy Demand will
Loss of competitive advantage as a green city quadruple by 2050 if
current energy demand
growth continues
What do we do? Energy interventions and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Business as
usual
Optimum Energy
Future
1
Electricity efficiency
2
Transport efficiency
3
Renewable electricity supply
Optimum Energy Future interventions do not compromise energy service delivery.
Total End User Expenditure for Scenarios Optimum Energy Future results in similar overall energy expenditure (incl. massive transport infrastructure investments) than Business as Usual without compromising energy service delivery.
A HIGH RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN JOBS CREATED Job creation
Business as Usual
Optimum Energy Future
Municipal Waste
0 123,231 Solar Thermal Elec
0 23,078 280,397 844,967 (long‐term)`
Wind
SOLAR WATER HEATERS: A solar water heater mass rollout New Nuclear
320 1,667 programme to reach 50% of the City’s houses (approx 0.5 New Fossil Base
0 0 million systems) would create 10,200 job‐years over the next New mid and peak
4,858 3,873 Existing Hydro
4,891 4,451 10 years and be economically beneficial to the citizens and the Existing mid and peak
454 429 economy.
Existing Base
Existing Nuclear
Total jobs from generation
0 0 499 286 291,418 1,001,981 SWHs
799,828 Energy Efficiency
11,329 TOTAL ALL
291,418 1,813,138 Increase in costs for Business as Usual (R5bn)
Increase in costs for Optimum Energy Future (R2.5bn)
1
EFFICIENCY: ALMOST ALL ELECTRICITY EFFICIENCY INTERVENTIONS ARE FINANCIALLY SENSIBLE AND PAY THEMSELVES BACK, LEADING TO A MORE EFFICIENT ECONOMY
Mid‐hi inc residential
Commercial
Low‐inc residential
The bars represent cumulative net savings (i.e. considering capital costs and electricity savings) of electricity efficiency interventions.
Govt
ELECTRICITY TARIFF DESIGN WILL NEED TO CHANGE IN FUTURE TO PROMOTE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND AT THE SAME TIME TO PRESERVE THE CITY’S REVENUE BASE
• Electricity tariffs currently promote more sales, not efficiency
• City revenue dependent on electricity sales
• Different tariffs can generate needed revenue and promote efficiency ‐
termed ‘decoupling’ – de‐linking increasing income by increasing consumption.
Electricity
Water
Sanitation
Solid waste
Rates & general
2 TRANSPORT: Transport resource intensity
Urban sprawl…
Less dense
More dense
The need to Densify the City
Densification of the city is expected to result
in significant reductions in expenditure to
service the population with adequate public
transport. (and also other service
infrastructure – storm water, water,
electricity)
ZAR 10 billion
saved
ZAR 40 billion
saved
3 Renewables: Electricity supply mix
BUSINESS AS USUAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MIX?
Wind
New Coal Existing Coal OPTIMUM ENERGY FUTURE ELEC SUPPLY MIX
Solar Thermal
Wind
New Coal Existing Coal The Optimum Energy Future interventions
Sector
Residential Interventions Efficient lighting
Efficient water heating (solar water heaters or heat pumps)
Commercial
Efficient Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Industrial
Local Government
Freight Transport Passenger Transport Electricity Supply Mix
Efficient water heating
Efficient lighting
Efficient motors Efficient HVAC Efficient lighting Buildings: efficient lighting Buildings: efficient HVAC Efficient street lighting
LED traffic lights
Fleet fuel efficiency Freight from road to rail Hybrid and electric private vehicles
Public transport vehicle efficiency
Modal shift from private to public transport Renewable energy in mix
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