SMART Electricity Planning
a healthy, modern, affordable electricity supply for all
Presentation on the
SMART Electricity Planning report.
And EU’s nearly Zero Energy Buildings.
To The
By Robert Fischer, Programme Manager Policy &
Research at Project 90 by 2030.
Representing the Electricity Governance Initiative
of South Africa (EGI-SA).
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Overview
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Project 90 by 2030.
Electricity Governance Initiative of South Africa (EGI-SA).
Challenges we face.
SMART Electricity Planning – Report Summary.
Electricity / Energy Demand / IEP-draft.
Electricity Supply : IRP2010 / SMART.
Evolution of the energy performance requirements in
buildings.
• CoCT – Electricity Tariffs vs Solar PV LCOE.
• Conclusion: Many questions…many opportunities…
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Project 90 by 2030
We envision a world that sustains humanity, where people are valued
and earth systems are preserved.
Our four work areas:
• Policy and Research (EGI-SA, SMART, Energy Caucus)
• Youth Programme (Project 90 clubs, young leaders programme)
• Community Partnership Programme - SMART Communities Training
• Communications (website, social-media, newsletter, etc.)
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Electricity Governance Initiative of SA (EGI-SA)
EGI-SA partner organisations (July 2013):
groundWork
environmental justice action
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Electricity Governance Initiative of SA (EGI-SA)
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Challenges we face:
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Global and local economic uncertainties
Unemployment and other socio-economic challenges
Only 75% of households have access to grid electricity
Local impacts on environment and people: AMD, air
pollution.
• Climate change.
• How will a 4°C warmer
world look like?
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Source: NASA, IPCC
Challenges we face:
• Is “Keeping the lights on” enough?
• Eskom’s challenges to build new generation
• Eskom’s challenges to maintain existing generation
(Unplanned outages = 5,700MW, Mon 12-Aug-13)
Source: Eskom, SYSTEM STATUS BULLETIN No. 166
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Electricity Governance Initiative of SA (EGI-SA)
SMART Electricity Planning
report
Aim: Fast-tracking our transition to a
healthy, modern, affordable electricity
supply for all.
Authors
• Dr Yvette Abrahams, Gender and Climate Change (Gender cc)
• Robert Fischer, Project 90 by 2030
• Brenda Martin, Project 90 by 2030
• Liziwe McDaid, SAFCEI, Green Connection
Research
Saul Roux, City of Cape Town, Liziwe McDaid, SAFCEI, Green Connection, Dr Yvette Abrahams,
Gender and Climate Change (Gender CC), Nthabiseng Mohlakoana, Gender and Climate Change
(Gender CC), Jesse Burton, Energy Research Centre, UCT. Louise Tait, Energy Research Centre,
UCT, Peter Atkins, Credible Carbon, UCT, Robert Fischer, Project 90 by 2030 Brenda Martin, Project
90 by 2030, Dr Hin Wah Li, Project 90 by 2030, Gray Maguire, Project 90 by 2030
Peer reviewers
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Electricity
Governance
Initiative of SA
IRP 2010 Analysis
Demand forecast
Energy efficiency
No price elasticity
Big build
Supply
Development
economics
projected: 2.9%
MYPD3: 1.9%
4% by 2030
12%/15% by 2015
How electricity users respond to
increased tariffs
Locking into inflexible, centralised options
Nuclear and coal, solar and wind
Job creation, social & enviro impacts
...widely disregarded in IRP2010
Electricity for who?
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Electricity
Governance
Initiative of SA
5 times
cheaper to
save than
to build!
SMART Demand
How inefficient is our current energy system?
Primary to Final Energy > 70% losses.
Primary to End Use Energy > 85% losses.
Can we be SMARTer than this?
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Electricity
Governance
Initiative of SA
SMART Demand
Energy Demand (TWh)
2010 2020 2030
IRP2010 – SO-Moderate:
SMART Track:
SMART Intrepid:
SMART Max:
258
340
258
299
258
299
258
285
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
EE
4%
382 16%
346 24%
330 27%
439
Drivers: GDP-growth, Population-growth
SMART ELECTRICITY
* SATIM: South African Energy
Model
in TIMES, by UCT/ERC
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
IEP-draft – Final Energy Demand
IEP
2010: 100%
2030:
IEP +35%
IRP +70%
2050:
IEP +125%
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
SNAPP / Electricity Supply
Energy
Research
Centre,
UCT
Electricity
Governance
Initiative of SA
Sustainable
National
Accessible
Power
Planning
Available at: http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/Snapp/snapp.htm
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
SMART Supply – SMART Investment
Electricity
Governance
Initiative of SA
Investment required (based on IRP2010 cost data):
IRP2010: R910bn
SMART Track: R749bn SMART Intrepid: R560bn
IRP2010
SMART: No nuclear, less coal, more solar
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Game changers
Energy Efficiency / Own- and Co-generation
• Efficient supply: Eskom coal old: 28% / Eskom coal new: 34% / Germany coal new: 46%
• Industries: Some have achieved 10%, further 25%-35% potential (Eskom’s CEO Brian
Dames in M&G, 26th April 2013)
• Co-generation (combined heat and power – CHP) potential by 2030 up to 17% or
15GW from total electricity demand (IEA) – much will depend on natural gas.
• Commerce and Residential: SANS10400:XA / nZEB – near Zero Energy Building.
Renewable Energy:
• CSP, Solar PV (large scale and rooftop PV, BIPV), Wind, Hydro, etc.
• Waste2Energy, Biomass, Biogas, SWH, etc.
• Power to Gas; storage options (large-scale, small-scale mobile and stationary)
Natural Gas:
• Contributes less to climate change as compared to coal, especially when focus of use is
in co-generation.
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
European Nearly Zero Energy Buildings Conference
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) requires
EU Member States to build nearly Zero Energy Buildings (nZEB)
from 2019 for public sector and from 2021 for all new buildings.
• http://www.wsed.at:
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Evolution of the energy performance
requirements in buildings
Where are we in
South Africa:
SANS10400:XA
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Evolution of the energy performance
requirements in buildings, examples.
In South Africa:
300kWh/m2a
A PLUS-Energy house
in Berlin.
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Evolution of the energy performance
requirements in buildings
Source: Proceedings from WSED2013
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
CoCT’s electricity tariffs vs Solar PV LCOE
Domestic
0-600kWh: 125 (142.50)c/kWh
>600kWh: 152 (173.28)c/kWh
Large Power Users (LV)
En.charge: 58.47(66.66)c/kWh
Residential SSEG
Cons.: 88.82 (101.25)c/kWh
Gen.: 46.04 (52.49)c/kWh
Large Power Users (MV)
En.charge: 54.35(61.96)c/kWh
SPU1 (>1000kWh/m)
En.charge: 111.52(127.13)c/kWh
Solar PV (LCOE):
Ground mounted: 85.66c/kWh
Rooftop: 68.70c/kWh
SPU2 (<1000kWh/m)
En.charge: 174.38(198.79)c/kWh
(Eskom, presented at UCT/ERC, 4th July
2013)
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
Conclusion:
Many questions…and many opportunities…
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Do we wait until Eskom delivers?
Do we accept a slower economic development due to lack of electricity?
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How do we maximise job creation through Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy?
How can we allow, encourage and assist ALL to actively participate in the electricity
sector?
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Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management – implement NEES and continue
ambitiously with EEDSM.
Short- to mid-term supply options; including:
• CSP, Solar PV, Wind, Hydro, Imports, Natural gas, etc.
• Waste2Energy, Biomass, Biogas, rooftop-Solar PV, etc.
• Own-, co- and tri-generation: Combined Heating/Cooling and Power.
There is no silver bullet, but there are many opportunities to:
Fast-track the transition to a healthy, modern, affordable electricity supply for all.
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa
SMART Electricity Planning
a healthy, modern, affordable electricity supply for all
Thank you!
http://www.90x2030.org.za/
Electricity
Governance
Initiative of SA
http://www.egi-sa.org.za/smart/
SMART ELECTRICITY
Planning and building a modern infrastructure for South Africa