28/07/2011 Rogo puzzle How can the Operational Research Society support teachers of Decision Maths? Louise Orpin – Education Officer, The Operational Research Society www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk Rogo puzzle Rogo - the New Puzzle Game • Rogo is a completely new, fun, puzzle that uses adding and problem-solving skills. • The object is to collect the biggest score possible using a given number of steps in a loop around a grid. The best possible score for a puzzle is given with it, so you can easily check that you have solved the puzzle. Rogo puzzles can also include forbidden squares, which must be avoided in your loop. Rogo is a puzzle based on the Travelling Salesperson Problem • Rogo is a special case of the TSP. To start with, you are limited in the distance you can travel by the number of steps or squares you can use. Secondly you can’t go to all the destinations, so you need to choose which ones to visit. Thus it is a “subset selection” TSP. And the destinations have different reward values (the numbers in the squares), so it is a www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk “Prize-collecting, subset selection TSP.” 28/07/2011 1 The O.R. Society Example of a Rogo puzzle • The Operational Research (O.R.) Society is the professional membership body of the Operational Research community. • The O.R. Society provides training, conferences, publications and information to those working in Operational Research (O.R.). Good score = 11 • The Society encourages its members to continue their professional development through accreditation which enables members to certify their achievements in their job. Best score = 14 A great teaching resource • Visit the Rogo website, www.rogopuzzle.co.nz, for more information on Rogo, teaching tips and puzzles for your class! • The Society also promotes O.R. in education and business, and as a career. • The Society organises an annual careers fair in November at the University of Birmingham where students can meet O.R. employers. 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 2 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 3 1 28/07/2011 Operational Research (O.R.) Operational Research (O.R.) O.R. is the discipline of applying appropriate, often advanced, analytical methods to help make better decisions. • • • • • • • Operational Research (O.R.) methods were developed during the Second World War as analysts undertook a number of crucial projects that aided the war effort. Provides information for decision makers Structures problems to aid understanding Wide-ranging in application and technique Provides tools for experimenting with potential scenarios Measures performance Optimises the use of limited resources 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk • After the war it soon became evident that O.R. techniques could be applied to similar problems in industry. • O.R. techniques such as network analysis, linear programming, scheduling, Game theory and Decision theory are studied in Decision Maths. 4 Why study Decision Maths 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 5 How can the Society help? • It provides useful background for studying O.R., business, computer sciences, electronics, statistics (and even some maths courses). • Better examples for how to teach the techniques? • More problems for students to practise on once they have learnt the technique? • It is probably the most widely used branch of maths in the “real world”. • Resources showing the techniques used in real life? • It is an area of Maths that many students will meet when they go into work. 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 6 • More help to show the point of studying Decision Maths? 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 7 2 28/07/2011 O.R. in the ‘real world’ What is O.R. video • O.R. is maths applied to help solve many everyday problems faced by businesses and organisations. The following companies use O.R. techniques that are studied in Decision Maths to help make better decisions ... • A video production showcasing a wide range of real life O.R. applications. • O.R. has a very positive influence on the success of an organisation. – Unipart Rail – Critical Path Analysis – Virgin Media – Integer Programming – Steer Davies Gleave & Emirates Stadium – Network Flows • Many more examples of O.R. in everyday life at www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk • Web link for video is www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk/learn/flash/flash_video.htm • OR Insight – Isle of Wight Library Service & TSP 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 8 28/07/2011 www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk 9 3 A GUIDE TO OPERATIONAL RESEARCH MAKING A REAL DIFFERENCE IT’S ALL AROUND US AND CAN BE FOUND IN JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WE DO WHAT IS IT? OPERATIONAL RESEARCH: THE SCIENCE OF BETTER “ OPERATIONAL RESEARCH IS VITAL TO OUR BUSINESS. IT’S CRITICAL IN HELPING US UNDERSTAND HOW WE CAN IMPROVE AND HOW WE CAN BE MORE SUCCESSFUL IN WHAT ARE VERY COMPETITIVE MARKETS. CHRIS DALE SITE MANAGER CROWN PAINTS “ CONTENTS O.R. INTRODUCTION O.R. IN TRANSPORT O.R. IN MANUFACTURING O.R. IN SPORT O.R. IN GOVERNMENT O.R. IN SUPPLY CHAINS O.R. EDUCATION FOR A CAREER 2 OPERATIONAL RESEARCH (O.R.) THE SECRET OF BETTER DECISION MAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD In a nutshell, O.R. is the discipline of applying appropriate, often advanced, analytical methods to help make better decisions. By using techniques such as problem structuring methods (sometimes known as ‘soft O.R.’) and mathematical modelling to analyse complex situations, O.R. gives executives the power to make more effective decisions and build more productive organisations. O.R. is all around us and can be found in just about everything we do. It forms the building blocks for our every day world – from buying a flight to queueing for our weekly groceries. It helps save lives, improves sporting events, drives business and government. Without O.R. the modern world we take for granted wouldn’t exist. This is not maths in theory but maths in the real world making a real difference. THIS GUIDE WILL SHOW YOU HOW O.R. HELPS This booklet describes some examples of O.R. being used to help solve real-world problems. GETTING THE NUMBERS RIGHT CAN MAKE PASSENGERS MORE SATISFIED WITH THE SERVICE AND MILLIONS OF POUNDS WORTH OF DIFFERENCE TO THE BUSINESS [Full story page 4] 3 O.R. IN TRANSPORT NEVER BEFORE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE OR PRODUCTS NEEDED TO BE MOVED AROUND THE WORLD. AS PASSENGERS AND CONSUMERS WE EXPECT EVERYTHING TO RUN SMOOTHLY WHETHER WE ARE FLYING ON HOLIDAY OR TRAVELLING TO SCHOOL, UNIVERSITY OR WORK. At British Airways, getting the numbers right can make passengers more satisfied with the service as well as making millions of pounds worth of difference to the business. As with all airlines, British Airways’ staff have to be ‘rostered’ to take into account things like number of hours they work per shift, minimum rest periods between flights, breaks at home but they also need to make sure crews spend as much time as possible working in the air. Research gets involved in a whole “ Operational range of decisions here at BA. Starting with the whole booking process where O.R. is involved in helping to set the ticket prices and calculate the seat availability through to the flights logistics on the day. O.R. has a massive part to play in a whole range of day to day decisions. You get the opportunity to be involved in a whole different range of aspects of an airline… a whole different range of problems. One day you could be looking at something that is very short term, very tactical and the next day or the next week you could be looking at something strategic for twenty years time. Neil Cottrell Head of Fleet Planning British Airways 4 “ TICKET PRICING There’s one challenge that every airline faces: Seats on any flight are perishable – once the plane has taken off, there is no possibility of selling any empty seats. This being so, it pays an airline to fill a seat, even at a very low fare, rather than have it take off empty. But obviously it isn’t viable to sell every seat at a low price, so a ‘model’ has to be found for selling seats at different prices. The real skill comes in working out how many tickets to sell at each fare. Ideally, on any flight, the airline would first like to see how many people are willing to pay the highest price, sell as many tickets as possible to them, then sell as many as possible at the next highest price, and so on, filling up any remaining seats at the cheapest price. Unfortunately they can’t do it that way because the kind of people who are willing to pay the higher fares often want to book at the last minute. So the airline usually sells the cheaper tickets first and holds back some places at the higher prices. The problem is knowing how many seats to hold back. This is where the airline uses O.R. By observing the day to day variations in the number of high priced tickets sold, the number of seats that need to be reserved to give high fare passengers the best chance of being able to get on the flight can be estimated. In addition the profile of bookings – how bookings come in over time - is monitored on a continuous basis, compared with the typical profile for the flight, and the number of seats held back is adjusted according to whether bookings are heavier or lighter than the typical profile. To do all this accurately and in such a way as to produce the best achievable results is difficult, and calls for some sophisticated ‘Yield Management’ analysis, which the O.R. model provides. 5 O.R. IN MANUFACTURING Operational Research is often at the heart of what makes a business run efficiently. In a manufacturing plant, everything must be planned and timed precisely to avoid bottlenecks. At Crown Paints there are literally hundreds of different colours made and well over a hundred varieties of paint. So knowing what colours can be made where and when and how many of each variety will be needed is crucial to the success of the business. people built a model of the plant that allows “ O.R. us to understand better the complexities of the manufacturing process by breaking down a complex problem, to make it very visual. O.R. is vital to our business. It’s critical in helping us understand how we can improve and how we can be more successful in what are very competitive markets. “ Chris DALE Site Manager Crown Paints 6 SIMULATION MODEL The simulation model in some ways looks like a computer game. It allows managers to visualise exactly where any problems might occur. It’s like a map of the plant which shows all the tanks, the mixers and all the different routings and filling areas. The model starts running and as soon as it hits the start time the process begins in the premix and the manufacturing areas. The batch that was made earlier can be seen running through into the plant and going into the filling line. It’s possible to see the batches run through a step by step process until they reach the filling line and the filled cans are shown moving through into the warehouse. In a paint manufacturing plant there are a huge number of variables – hundreds of colours, varieties and can sizes – and the simulation model allows managers to structure the problem, visualise it and understand what is really happening. This piece of software allows the company to schedule production more efficiently and helps them to run the plant and use the people more effectively. 7 O.R. IN SPORT The world of sport isn’t an obvious place where Operational Research might be used. Yet, many of our much loved activities rely on O.R. – in fact, without O.R. some of the games we know and love wouldn’t be recognisable. For example, in limited-overs cricket, when weather interrupts play, an O.R. model – the Duckworth Lewis method – is used to calculate the fairest run target for the team batting second. O.R. is also behind football’s Actim Index stats that help calculate the best player in each position. O.R. had a big part to play in the design of the magnificent Emirates Stadium in North London – home of Arsenal F.C. Operational Research was used to help make the running of the site on match days safe and efficient. imagine a match day situation… “ Just when you arrive at the station O.R. starts to feature immediately. You get off the train, people marshal you toward the stadium. That part of the process has already got O.R. taken into account, trying to find the safest way for you to move. Then when you reach the stadium, the number of turnstiles, for example, will have been determined by an O.R. technique – so O.R.’s really important to everything about this stadium. The design of this stadium is obviously magnificent. It’s a sixty thousand capacity stadium and without a simulation model of people moving in and out you’d never know whether during a match situation if there was a fire, for example, if those people could be evacuated safely within the eight minute guide line. “ Danielle Czauderna Principal Consultant STEER DAVIES GLEAVE 8 FORMULA 1 In the exciting world of Formula 1 racing, split second decisions are often the difference between success and failure. Often these decisions rely on mathematical models, developed by skilled O.R. experts. think the first thing we’ll see with the direct “ Iapplication of O.R. with the race strategy is the fuel load. Estimating competitor’s fuel load and when they’e going to stop and when we are going to hit traffic during a race and when it’s good to go in for a pit stop and tyre degradation… these are all estimations we need to do as the race develops. I strongly believe that O.R. has a greater role to play in F1 for the future… “ Israel Vieira F1 Team Race Strategy Mathematical Modeller 9 O.R. IN GOVERNMENT Central government is the biggest business in Britain and, to help government, O.R. gets involved in just about everything that affects our day to day lives. The Prime Minister has his own team of advisors that works in 10 Downing Street but they rely on information that comes to him from every one of the government departments. One of the roles in providing an O.R. service at the centre of government is to ‘quality assure’ the analysis and evidence that gets sent to the PM so he knows that what he’s looking at is accurate, timely and effective. Whatever the issue – whether working out the most efficient way of treating us when we’re ill, policing our streets and improving transport networks or even what is taught in the classroom, an operational researcher helps monitor government performance and finds the most effective ways of putting policy into practice. passionate about maths and you want “ Iftoyou’re make a difference, the Government O.R. Service gives you the perfect opportunity to solve problems… to solve puzzles… and actually improve the quality of life right the way across the public agenda. If your analysis can make a differenceand make the right decision and improve the effectiveness then the country’s going to be a better place overall. Tony O’Connor CBE Chair Government O.R. Service 10 “ Helping to run the National Health Service is a major task for the analysts in the Government O.R. Service. In a hospital, for example, using O.R. techniques can literally be the difference between life and death. One of the really big things that hospitals have to think about is how long patients stay – so, therefore, how many beds and how many wards and doctors you have to have look after them. really important for us to get as far as we can “ It’s the right capacity for the patients who are going to come through the doors so that we can give the treatment that they need when they need it. Patients, when they are referred by their GP, go either into A and E or Out Patients and enter a series of queues. One of the things that we really have to do – and something we’ve been working very hard on – is getting those queues as short as we can. And making sure we don’t have any bottle necks in our system. Therefore, we need queueing theory and other O.R. techniques to help us make sure we get that right. “ Dr Trudi Kemp Interim Director of Strategic Development St George’s Hospital 11 O.R. IN SUPPLY CHAINS We all expect the things we want and need to be readily available. That means shelves to be always stocked and deliveries to arrive on time. This is what is known as the ‘supply chain’ of a business and O.R. techniques lie at the very heart of getting this process to function efficiently. At WaverleyTBS, one of the UK’s leading distribution companies, O.R. is key to the forecasting process. take a mathematical forecast of sales going “ We forward and then we use that forecast to order stock from suppliers. That stock then comes into these warehouses where we manage, store and deliver stock from here to end customers. Once the forecast has been created we then have teams of people who order stock against that forecast with the suppliers and they manage that stock into the warehouses. We then use O.R. mathematical models to work out manning levels, to control our costs in the operation and, more importantly, manage the space as our warehouses only have a finite capacity. 12 Bob Wigglesworth Director Waverly TBS “ O.R AND THE SUPPLY CHAIN Sales in large grocery retailers in the UK follow a weekly cycle – more is sold on Fridays and Saturdays than on other days of the week. So, on Thursdays and Fridays their distribution centres supplying stores have to work very hard. In fact, they often have to employ temporary staff and sub-contract trucks to cope with the peaks. Truck-loads of products received from suppliers have to be broken down into store orders and delivered to the stores. O.R. people analyse sales patterns and develop replenishment policies. One major retailer detected irregularity in suppliers’ production schedules which led to either too much or too little product being available for delivery to the warehouse. This situation, caused by the ‘bullwhip effect’, resulted in poor customer satisfaction due to the unavailability of products. O.R. was used in the construction of a simulation model of the replenishment system. The model helped the retailer to alter the replenishment rules to incorporate a feedback system to their suppliers. The model also showed that the distribution workload could be spread more evenly over the whole week for certain products by smoothing the sales cycle. The simulation led to the implementation of a small change to the replenishment algorithms, resulting in considerable smoothing of daily variability. The company trialled the new replenishment model for three months in a single store, it proved so successful that the implementation rolled out across the entire UK business. As a result, the savings achieved by not having to employ temporary staff in the distribution centres and subcontract transport ran into millions of pounds per year. Crucially, service levels improved as distribution centres could keep up with demand, while stock was directed where needed rather than too much being held in stores. 13 O.R. EDUCATION FOR A CAREER If you are interested in a career in operational research take a look at the interesting University Degree courses that are the best route into the profession. A list of universities offering degrees in O.R. can be found at www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk are many different academic paths into “ There operational research although most people tend to have undergraduate degrees with mathematics, statistics, O.R., computer science or management content. Specialist Master’s degrees in O.R. and related subjects are also available. Students will also learn a number of O.R. techniques such as computer simulation, optimisation, queueing theory, inventory control, and problem structuring methods to name but a few. You’ll also get a good balance between the theoretical work and an appreciation of the application of these techniques, and this will be through case studies and projects which might involve working with a company on a real world problem. “ 14 Paul Harper Professor of Operational Research Cardiff University “ IF YOU’RE PASSIONATE ABOUT MATHS AND YOU WANT TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE, THE GOVERNMENT O.R. SERVICE GIVES YOU THE PERFECT OPPORTUNITY TO SOLVE PROBLEMS... to solve puzzles... AND ACTUALLY IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF LIFE RIGHT THE WAY ACROSS THE PUBLIC AGENDA. WITH THE HELP OF YOUR O.R. ANALYSIS, THE COUNTRY’S GOING TO BE A BETTER PLACE OVERALL. TONY O’CONNOR, CBE CHAIR GOVERNMENT O.R. SERVICE “ 15 THE SECRET OF BETTER DECISION MAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD IN A NUTSHELL, OPERATIONAL RESEARCH (O.R.) IS THE DISCIPLINE OF APPLYING APPROPRIATE, OFTEN ADVANCED, ANALYTICAL METHODS TO HELP MAKE BETTER DECISIONS. By using techniques such as problem structuring methods (sometimes known as ‘soft O.R.’) and mathematical modelling to analyse complex situations, O.R. gives executives the power to make more effective decisions and build more productive organisations. O.R. is all around us and can be found in just about everything we do. It forms the building blocks for our every day world – from buying a flight to queueing for our weekly groceries. It helps save lives, improves sporting events, drives business and government. Without O.R. the modern world we take for granted wouldn’t exist. This is not maths in theory but maths in the real world – making a real difference. IF YOU’D LIKE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT O.R., VISIT WWW.LEARNABOUTOR.CO.UK You’ll find: E xamples of O.R. helping to solve real-world problems O.R. problems for you to solve Details of Universities offering degrees in O.R. Careers in O.R. A video of O.R. in action SEYMOUR HOUSE, 12 EDWARD STREET, BIRMINGHAM B1 2RX UK. TEL: +44 (0)121 233 9300 www.theorsociety.com Original Article Look, here comes the library van! Optimising the timetable of the mobile library service on the Isle of Wight Tanutr Rienthonga, Andrew Walkerb and Tolga Bektas¸a,* a School of Management and Centre for Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems (CORMSIS), University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK. b Isle of Wight Council, Library HQ, 5 Mariners Way, Cowes, Isle of Wight PO31 8DP, UK. *Corresponding author. Abstract This article describes an approach taken to optimise the timetable of the mobile library service operating on the Isle of Wight. The mobile library visits over 90 communities on the island, offering books, DVDs, videos and CDs, and operates on a periodic timetable. The optimisation problem is formulated as a multiple travelling salesmen model with additional time-balancing constraints on route durations. The article also shows ways in which data required for the model, in particular travel times, were gathered, and discusses practical issues arising in pre-processing the data to fit the purposes of the case study. The model is used to produce an improved timetable over the current one that implies driving time reductions of up to 25 per cent and yields routes that are better balanced in terms of time spent on the visits made each day. The model is also used to test various scenarios differing with respect to the number of locations visited and days over which the service operates. OR Insight (2011) 24, 49–62. doi:10.1057/ori.2010.17; published online 26 January 2011 Keywords: multiple travelling salesman problem; routing; integer programming; optimisation Received November 2010; accepted November 2010 after one revision & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight www.palgrave-journals.com/ori/ Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Rienthong et al Introduction The Isle of Wight Council’s Library Service serves a population of around 140 000, and among unitary authorities is in the top quartile for visits and issues. The service has a stock of just under a quarter of a million books and issues close to 1 million books, CDs, DVDs and videos every year. There are currently 28 000 active borrowers out of a population of 140 000, but the service is also used for its internet-based services, access to other council services and for a wide variety of enquiries. The Isle of Wight Council’s Library Services has 11 branches providing service for Bembridge, Brighstone, Cowes, East Cowes, Freshwater, Newport, Niton, Ryde, Sandown, Shanklin and Ventnor. The main library is the Lord Louis Library located in Newport. Figure 1 shows a map of the Isle of Wight and the main centres of population on the island. The Council also provides additional library services, namely the Mobile Library Service that visits locations on the island where there are no static libraries, and the Home Library Service that delivers to the homes of people who are unable to visit their local library because of being housebound. In addition, they also have a delivery van in order to provide facilities for library branches, pre-school, mid-school and services for each of the island’s three prisons. The mobile library service offers services to locations where there are no libraries. The mobile service operates on a 3-week timetable. Over weeks Figure 1: A map of the Isle of Wight. Source: Contains Ordnance Survey data r Crown copyright and database rights 2010. 50 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Look, here comes the library van one and two, communities in towns, villages and rural areas are visited. In week three, it provides service to shelter housing residents. The mobile library currently serves 98 locations over a 3-week period consisting of 38 locations in week one, 42 locations in week two and 18 locations in week three. Over the 3 weeks, the mobile library spends around 93 hours and makes about 282.5 miles in travelling around the island. This time is a combination of driving and service times. The Isle of Wight Library Service is currently undertaking a review of their mobile and home library service provision in terms of route revision, vehicle suitability, service provision and staffing. The aim of the review is to maintain the delivery of the high-quality service to customers, but at a significantly reduced cost. The main objective of this article is to develop alternative timetables for the Mobile Library to improve and enhance the service on the Isle of Wight in terms of both the total mileage and the time spent on the routes. Through the use of mathematical modelling and optimisation, this article will first show how the current schedule can be improved. The model will also be used to generate alternative timetables with differing characteristics. The article will describe how travel time data, required as an input to the proposed model, were collected, and will discuss some practical issues arising in pre-processing the data to fit to the needs of the case study. More specifically, we will show that travel times as estimated through an online map database needed to be modified before being used in the model. The next section describes the modelling and optimisation approach for the problem and discusses the requirements for data collection and processing. Modelling and Optimisation The first part of this section provides a detailed description of the current practice and discusses data requirements. The second part presents a formal definition of the problem and describes the model used to produce the new timetables. Description of the current practice and data collection The mobile library service visits 98 locations on the island over a time horizon of 16 days, and this timetable is repeated throughout the year. Tours start daily from the Library Headquarters (HQ) located in Cowes and return to the same location at the end of each day. To give the reader an idea of the existing & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 51 Rienthong et al Table 1: Summary statistics for the timetable in use Day Distance (miles) Scheduled travel time (hours) Service time Total time Week 1 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 26.0 12.5 17.1 20.6 16.6 12.6 2:45 1:55 2:30 3:00 2:00 0:45 2:25 4:45 2:30 4:25 4:20 4:00 5:10 6:40 5:00 7:25 6:20 4:45 Week 2 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 25.4 25.6 19.9 9.00 20.1 7.3 2:50 2:40 2:20 2:10 2:40 0:20 2:40 3:15 2:55 3:40 4:30 4:00 5:30 5:55 5:15 5:50 7:10 4:20 Week 3 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 28.5 8.9 13.8 18.3 Off-road (Admin day) 2:55 3:35 2:15 4:00 2:10 3:30 2:15 3:00 6:30 6:15 5:40 5:15 Total 282.5 35:30 — 93:00 timetable in place, we first present some detailed statistics in Table 1 as to the total distance traversed by the mobile library, as well as the associated travel and service times for each day. The service time for each location is dependent on its population. These data are extracted from the current schedule and a summary is presented in Figure 2. As Figure 2 shows, there are 16 locations with service times of up to 10 min and 39 locations with service time of around 20 min. Of the remaining locations, there are 38 with service times ranging between 30 and 80 min. Finally, only four of the locations visited have service times higher than 100 min, with the maximum being 4 hours (240 min). There are two fundamental sets of data required for this study: (i) driving times between every pair of locations, and (ii) location durations (service times) at each location visited. The latter was readily available from the existing timetable as is as shown in Figure 2. The former set was collected using an online map database (Google Maps, 2010). This meant that (992–99)/2 ¼ 4851 individual distances were manually entered and the corresponding estimated driving times were extracted using the postcodes 52 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Look, here comes the library van 40 Number of locations 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Service time (minutes) Figure 2: Histogram showing the spread of the service times for the 98 locations. Table 2: Discrepancies between the collected data and the existing schedule Week 1 Friday PO31 PO30 PO30 PO30 PO30 PO30 PO30 PO30 PO30 8PD 3JT 4AA 3LH 4EH 4LD 4JD 5ST 5RQ Location Library HQ Shorwell Limerstone Yafford Hulverstone Brook Calbourne Kinchington Rd Marlborough Rd Driving time from the previous location Data from the online map Data from the actual schedule — 0:21 0:03 0:02 0:08 0:01 0:08 0:10 0:01 — 0:30 0:05 0:05 0:20 0:05 0:20 1:20a 0:05 a includes 1-hour lunch break. available to us, yielding a 99 99 travel time matrix. However, when these driving times given by the online database were compared with those available in the schedule, some discrepancies were found. Table 2 shows these discrepancies in greater detail for a section of a particular route. A closer look at the above-mentioned discrepancy revealed that the mobile library bus was driving slower than an average car, owing to its size, and hence required higher travel times. The figures presented in Table 1 and the rest of the timetable indicated that the scheduled travel times were about twice as & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 53 Rienthong et al Table 3: An overall summary of the current timetable Total driving time (hours) based on online map data Total driving time based on the actual schedule Total service time Week 1 (6 days) Week 2 (6 days) Week 3 (4 days) 13:38 10:43 8:20 12:55 13:00 9:35 22:25 21:00 14:05 Total (16 days) 32:31 35:30 57:30 much as the estimations given through the online database. To reflect this difference, we have multiplied all elements of the 99 99 driving time matrix by two and used this revised data set in the computations. We note that the modification performed on the data set will not affect the resulting tours as all elements are magnified by the same amount. However, the modification yields a better estimation of the actual times spent travelling, and therefore will have an impact on the resulting schedules and the way in which they would be implemented. A tabulated summary of the current timetable in terms of driving and service times is given in Table 3. In this table, we present statistics for the total driving time with respect to two sources; one is based on the data collected through the online database, and the other based on the actual schedule of the mobile library service. These figures are presented under columns two and three in Table 3. The total service time remains constant for each location for which there is only one set of statistics, and these are presented in the last column of Table 3. Formal definition of the problem and the optimisation model The problem of finding an optimal timetable for the mobile library service corresponds to distributing the set of 98 locations to be visited over 3 weeks. The first 2 weeks comprise 12 days including Saturdays but not Sundays, whereas the third week is only 4 days long. The problem also involves finding, for each day, the order in which the locations will be visited. In other words, the problem involves finding the optimal routes to traverse in each day. An additional aspect of the problem involves balancing the total time spent in each day by the service, including the travel time from one location to another and service time at each location. Routing problems have long been studied in the literature. The Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) is a well-known member of this class of problems, which consists of finding a lowest-cost tour among a set of cities such that each 54 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Look, here comes the library van city is visited exactly once and the tour starts from and ends at a so-called ‘depot’ or a ‘home’ node (see Laporte, 1992, 2010 for overviews). In our study, the routing problem of the mobile library is modelled using an extension of the TSP named as the multiple Travelling Salesman Problem (mTSP). The mTSP consists of finding routes for m salesmen who all depart from and return to a depot such that each city is visited exactly once and that the total length of the m tours formed is minimised. There are several variations of the mTSP, ranging from those with single to multiple depots, and those with additional restrictions such as bounds on the number of cities visited (Bektas¸, 2006). In our context, each of the m tours in the mTSP corresponds to one of the 16 days to be planned for and each tour itself will yield the order of the locations in a tour to be visited on the corresponding day. The model used in this study is in the form of a 0–1 mixed integer linear programming formulation. We denote the number of locations by n and the number of days to plan for by m. The set N ¼ {1, 2, y, n} is the index set of all locations (or nodes) to be visited in which ‘home’ (that is, Library HQ) is represented by node 1. The remaining indices correspond to the 98 locations to be visited. Cij represents the driving time from location i to location j (iaj) in minutes. The service time spent in a given location iAN is represented by Si. The total time spent on a tour is composed of the driving time and service times spent at each of the locations. As for the balancing aspect of the problem, an upper bound of T minutes is imposed on the total time spent by the mobile library service on each day. Similarly, it is required that the service spends at least a lower bound of L minutes every day. Under this definition, the more the values of L and T approach one another, the more balanced the resulting tours will be. The proposed model makes use of a binary variable Xij that takes the value 1 if the service travels from location iAN to location jAN, and 0 otherwise. An additional (continuous) variable Vi is defined to represent the arrival time of the service at node iAN. The model is presented below. Minimise n X n X Cij Xij i¼1 j¼1 Subject to n X X1j ¼ m; ð1Þ Xj1 ¼ m; ð2Þ j¼2 n X j¼2 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 55 Rienthong et al n X Xij ¼ 1 j ¼ 2; . . . ; n; ð3Þ Xij ¼ 1 i ¼ 2; . . . ; n; ð4Þ i¼1 n X j¼1 Vi Vj þ ðT þ Cij þ Si ÞXij þ ðT Cij Sj ÞXji pT Vi þ ðCi1 þ Si ÞXi1 pT i ¼ 2; . . . ; n; Vi ðL Ci1 Si ÞXi1 X0 Vi C1i X1i X0 i ¼ 2; . . . ; n; i ¼ 2; . . . ; n; Vi C1i X1i þ TX1i pT Xij 2 f0; 1g i; j ¼ 2; . . . ; n; i 6¼ j; ð5Þ ð6Þ ð7Þ ð8Þ i ¼ 2; . . . ; n; ð9Þ i; j ¼ 2; . . . ; n; i 6¼ j: ð10Þ In the model presented above, constraints (1) and (2) ensure that the timetable of the mobile library service covers m days, with each tour starting and ending at the Library HQ (node 1). Constraints (3) and (4) ensure that each location appears exactly once in any tour, that is, it is visited only once over the planning horizon of m days. Constraint (5) is used to prevent sub-tours, which are tours that are formed within the locations not connected to Library HQ. These constraints also help to define the variables Vi in such a way that if the service visits location j immediately after visiting location i, then the arrival time in location j will be equal to the arrival time in location i added to the service time in location i and the travel time between these two nodes. Constraints (6), (7), (8) and (9) are used to guarantee that the total time spent on each tour is between L and T minutes. The above model is an extension of the standard mTSP model found in the literature (see, for example, Kara and Bektas¸, 2006). As far as we are aware, constraints (6), (7), (8) and (9) used to balance the routes in terms of travel time are the novel features of this model. 56 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Look, here comes the library van Results It is well known that routing problems are difficult to solve optimally, and that heuristics offer reasonably good solutions within relatively short computation times (see, for example, Salhi and Currie, 2009). However, it is not the intention of this article to describe a new solution method for the model but rather to make use of the proposed model in obtaining solutions that improve upon the current practice. To this end, we used GUROBI version 3.0.1 (Gurobi Optimization, 2010), a state-of-the-art optimiser for solving the proposed model. All experiments were conducted on a 2.4 GHz MacBook. The model (1)–(10) was coded using the parameters of the current timetable and run on a pre-defined set of scenarios generated in consultation with the Isle of Wight Library HQ in line with their review. Further details on the scenarios generated and the associated results are given below. Scenario 1 This scenario is based on the current timetable with n ¼ 99 locations (including the Library HQ) and m ¼ 16 service days covering 3 weeks. After consultation with the mobile library service driver and Library Services, and in line with the current timetable, it was decided to set L and T equal to 4 hours (240 min) and 6.30 hours (390 min), respectively, for this scenario. The optimiser for the corresponding model was run for over 10 hours and a summary of the resulting solution is shown in Table 4. As can be seen from Table 4, the new timetable produced through the proposed model results in a total driving time of 26 hours and 39 min. This is an improvement of 8 hours and 51 min over the current timetable, translating into a time saving of 25 per cent. If the comparisons are made on the basis of data obtained from the online map, then the corresponding time reduction is 5 hours and 52 min. Scenario 2 Scenario 2 will look at the case where mobile library locations within a 2-mile radius of the main libraries Newport, Ryde, Cowes, Freshwater, Sandown and Ventnor are not included in the model. The assumption here is that these locations would be served by the respective main libraries, rather than by the mobile library. Without such locations, the number of locations reduces to n ¼ 72. Given the reduced number of locations, we run the model for two cases with m ¼ 16 and m ¼ 12 days, respectively, where the latter corresponds to 2 weeks. The reason for testing the m ¼ 12 case is due to the decreased number of locations to be visited. For this scenario, it was decided to increase L to 5 hours (300 min), but keep T same at 6.30 hours (390 min). & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 57 Rienthong et al Table 4: Summary statistics for the new timetable produced under Scenario 1 Day Scheduled travel time (hours) Service time Total time Week 1 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 2:08 2:08 1:23 1:12 1:30 1:46 3:15 4:00 2:45 4:20 2:50 3:00 5:23 6:08 4:08 5:32 4:20 4:46 Week 2 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday 2:15 0:28 2:08 1:40 1:36 2:18 3:45 3:45 3:20 4:50 3:20 4:00 6:00 4:13 5:28 6:30 4:56 6:18 Week 3 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday 1:48 1:00 2:13 1:06 Total Off-road (Admin day) 4:10 3:05 4:05 3:00 26:39 — 5:58 4:05 6:18 4:06 84:09 Table 5: The summary table for Scenario 2 with m=16 Current time table based on actual schedule Current time table based on online data Scenario 2 (16 days) a Total driving time Time savings Total service timea Time savings 35:30 5:04 57:30 18:45 32:31 8:03 57:30 18:45 40:34 — 36:45 — Service times do not include lunch breaks. For the case with m ¼ 16 days, the optimisation engine was run for around 23 hours on the model. We present a summary of the resulting solution in Table 5. Table 5 shows a comparison between the current timetable and the new one with 72 locations and 16 days. It is interesting to note that the total driving time in this scenario is longer than that of the current timetable, with the reason being the locations that were removed lead to an increased distance between locations. However, the increase in the driving time is compensated 58 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Look, here comes the library van Table 6: The summary table for Scenario 2 with m=12 Current time table based on actual schedule Current time table based on online data Scenario 2 (12 days) Total driving time (hours) Time savings Total service timea Time savings 35:30 14:08 57:30 18:45 32:31 11:09 57:30 18:45 21:22 — 36:45 — a Service times do not include lunch breaks. by the reduction in total service time as shown in the last column of Table 5. When the changes in total driving and service times are combined, it can be seen that the new scenario results in a significant reduction of the overall time spent by the mobile library service for the 72 locations. The second case of Scenario 2 is where the number of service days is reduced from 16 days to 12 days while all other parameters remain fixed. The optimisation in this case was run for 24 hours and a summary of the results are presented in Table 6. Table 6 shows that the total driving time is significantly lower than that of the current timetable when the services operates on a periodic timetable of 12 days, rather than 16 to serve the 72 locations. The savings in driving time combined with the reduction in the total service time shows that a 2-week-, rather than a 3-week-, long timetable results in much less time to be spent in driving and servicing the locations. Scenario 3 This scenario aims to create a new timetable that will remove all locations within a 2-mile radius of every main library on the Isle of Wight, namely Newport, Ryde, Cowes, Freshwater, Sandown, Ventnor, Bembridge, East Cowes, Shanklin, Brighstone and Niton. This implies a reduction in the total number of locations from 99 to 59, with 40 locations removed. The number of service days in this case is set equal to 12 days while all other parameters remain constant. The optimisation process for the model corresponding to Scenario 3 was run for around 2 hours. A summary of the results are presented in Table 7. As can be seen from Table 7, the total driving time for Scenario 3 is around 27 hours, which implies a reduction of 8 hours and 23 min over the current timetable based on the actual schedule and a reduction of 5 hours 24 min over the current timetable based on online data. Further reductions in the total service time can be seen in the last column of Table 7, which is due to the number of reduced locations. & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 59 Rienthong et al Table 7: The summary table for scenario 2 with m=12 Total driving time (hours) Time savings Total service timea Time savings 35:30 8:23 57:30 26:50 32:31 5:24 57:30 26:50 27:07 — 30:40 — Current time table based on actual schedule Current time table based on online data Scenario 3 a Service times do not include lunch breaks. Summary and Comparisons An important aspect of the model proposed in this study is its feature of balancing the workload (as measured by the daily time spent by the service) over a number of days, in addition to minimising the total travel time of the mobile library service. Table 8 presents a general comparison between the current timetable and the three scenarios tested in terms of the total driving time. This table also presents, in the last row, the standard deviation (SD) for each scenario, as well as that of the current timetable, as an indicator of how ‘balanced’ the new solutions are. The figures given in Table 8 clearly show that Scenario 1, which is an optimised version of the current timetable, produces a more balanced set of routes as indicated by the reduced standard deviation. The table also shows that, should Scenario 2 be adopted, then a 12-day time period results in a better balanced set of routes with an even smaller SD than that of Scenario 1. Conclusions This article described a practical routing problem that arises in producing a timetable for the mobile library service on the Isle of Wight. A mathematical model in the form of an integer programming formulation is proposed for the problem that not only minimises the total driving time spent by the service, but also balances the time spent on the routes each day. The model can be generated easily and fed into an off-the-shelf optimiser to produce practical solutions. The model could easily be used by practitioners, and is flexible enough to be adapted to their own needs. Using the proposed model, we were able to produce a new timetable for the mobile library service, which not only reduced the driving time requirements of up to 25 per cent, but also helped to better balance the route durations by reducing the SD of the set of routes by around 17 per cent. We also tested several scenarios looking at a reduced number of locations and days, and investigated the impacts of these changes on the total driving and service time. 60 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 Look, here comes the library van Table 8: Summary table comparing the current timetable with three scenarios with regard to the driving time (in minutes) Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day Day SD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Current timetable Scenario 1 Scenario 2 (m=16) Scenario 2 (m=12) Scenario 3 198 100 114 154 144 100 136 116 123 60 140 68 184 78 100 138 128 128 83 72 90 106 135 28 128 100 96 138 108 60 133 66 150 156 102 196 188 198 208 136 201 168 135 68 152 140 160 76 102 113 126 106 106 98 154 146 129 118 68 76 — — — — 176 104 142 158 150 176 172 100 145 160 68 76 — — — — 38.43 31.98 42.62 25.30 38.63 One (expected) challenge encountered in this research was the difficulty of solving the model to optimality. As mentioned in the previous section, the time to run the models for the four scenarios varied from 2 hours to 24 hours. The respective optimality gaps for Scenarios 1, 2 (with m ¼ 16), 2 (with m ¼ 12) and 3 were 28.4 per cent, 40.1 per cent, 12.4 per cent and 29.5 per cent, respectively, which shows the difficulty of obtaining optimal solutions within reasonable amount of computational time. The quoted statistics on the optimality gaps shows the need for theoretical developments in solving these types of problems to optimality in efficient and effective ways. This is especially the case for modelling and solving more complex library delivery operations (Apte and Mason, 2006). One observation we made in our experimentation is that the solution of the proposed model becomes much more difficult with increasing lower bound L on the travel time. However, the produced solutions were good enough for practical purposes of this research and showed improvement over the current practice. Acknowledgement This research was based on a summer project organised jointly by the four MSc programmes run by the Centre of Operational Research, Management Science and Information Systems (CORMSIS) at the University of Southampton and & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62 61 Rienthong et al carried out in collaboration with the Isle of Wight Council. At the time of completing this research, the first author was an MSc student at the University of Southampton. The authors thank Astrid Davies and Dr Ian Rowley for helping to set up the project, and the Editor-in-Chief for his constructive comments on the article. About the Authors Tanutr Rienthong holds a Bachelor’s degree in Management Sciences, 2008, from Kasetsart University, Thailand; and holds a Master’s degree in Management Science and Finance at the University of Southampton, 2009 to 2010. Andrew Walker has worked as a public library manager since graduating from Oxford University in 1981. Following several posts in London boroughs, Andrew moved to the Isle of Wight in 1990. He is now employed as the Development Librarian in charge of library operations, encompassing staffing, building maintenance, mobile vehicles and performance monitoring. Tolga Bektas¸ is a lecturer in Management Science at the University of Southampton and the Director of the MSc in Business Analytics and Management Sciences at the School of Management. He has a BSc (1998), MSc (2000) and PhD (2005) in Industrial Engineering, and postdoctoral research experience at the University of Montreal. His research interests are in discrete optimisation with applications to vehicle routeing, service network design, and freight transportation and logistics. 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(2010) A concise guide to the travelling salesman problem. Journal of the Operational Research Society 61: 35–40. Salhi, S. and Currie, R.H. (2009) Heuristics are here to help your online vehicle scheduling. OR Insight 22: 88–104. 62 & 2011 Operational Research Society Ltd 0953-5543 OR Insight Vol. 24, 1, 49–62