ALTERNATIVE ELECTRICAL ENERGY SOURCES FOR MAINE W.J. Jones M. Ruane Appendix B CONSERVATION P. Carpenter S. Raskin W.J. Jones R. Tabors Prepared for the Central Maine Power Company. Report No. MIT-EL 77-010 MIT Energy Laboratory December 1977 This appendix is one of thirteen volumes; the remaining volumes are as follows: A. Conversion of Biomass; C. Geothermal Energy Conversion; D. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion; E. Fuel Cells; F. Solar Energy Conversion; G. Conversion of Solid Wastes; H. Storage of Energy; I. Wave Energy Conversion; J. Ocean and Riverine Current Energy Conversion; K. Wind Energy Conversion, and L. Environmental Impacts. _ I ____ I II 11 _11_9__ _ II_ I I_ C _ _ _ _ II Acknowledgments Initial literature reviews and drafts of the various technical appendices were prepared by the following people: Appendix Conversion of Biomass - C. Glaser, M. Ruane Appendix Conservation - P. Carpenter, W.J. Jones, S. Raskin, R. Tabors Appendix Geothermal Energy Conversion - A. Waterflow Appendix Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion - M. Ruane Appendix Fuel Cells - W.J. Jones Appendix Solar Energy Conversion - J. Geary, W.J. Jones Appendix Conversion of Solid Wastes - M. Ruane Appendix Storage of Energy - M. Ruane Appendix Wave Energy Conversion - J. Mays Appendix Ocean and Riverine Current Energy Conversion - J. Mays Appendix Wind Energy Conversion - T. Labuszewski Appendix L Environmental Impacts - J. Gruhl Numerous people shared reports and data with us and provided comments on the draft material. We hope that everyone has been acknowledged through the references in the technical sections, but if we missed anyone, thank you! Ms. Alice Sanderson patiently weathered out many drafts and prepared the final document with the assistance of Ms. Dorothy Merlin. _ _ _ _ I _I _ P_ I _ _ _I _CC I _slCII_ Preface The Energy Laboratory of the Mass. Inst. of Tech. was retained by the Central Maine as possible Power Company to evaluate several technologies alternatives to the construction of Sears (a 600 MWe coal fired generating plant scheduled Island #1 for startup in 1986). This is an appendix to Report MIT-EL 77-010 which presents the results of the study for one of the technologies. The assessments were made on the basis that a technology should be: 1) an alternative to a base -load power generation facility. electric Base- load is defined as ability to furnish up to a rated capacity output 2) not restricted for 6570 hours per year. to a single plant. It may be several plants within the state of Maine. The combined output, when viewed in isolation, must be a separate, "standalone" source of power. 3) available to deliver energy by 1985. APPENDIX B INCREASED CONSERVATION Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION B-1 1.1 Discussion - General B-1 1.2 Definition of Conservation and Motivation for Same B-1 Reduction of Energy (Btu) Consumption B-1 1.2.2 "Dirty Fuels" B-1 1.2.3 Vulnerability of Supply B-2 1.2.4 Balance of Payments B-2 1.2.5 Cost B-2 1.2.6 Conservation of Oil B-2 1.3 Scope of Paper B-2 1.4 Problems in the Implementation of Conservation B-2 1.5 Actions/Measures to Result in Conservation B-3 1.6 Assessment of Conservation Measures B-4 1.6.1 Evaluation B-4 1.6.2 Effectiveness B-4 1.6.3 "Turn-around-Time" B-4 1.6.4 Political and Administrative Feasibility B-5 1.7 2.0 1.2.1 B-5 Comment ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSERVATION POTENTIAL IN MAINE B-6 2.1 B-7 Residential Sector 2.1.0 Base Residential Demand Characteristics and Methodology B-7 2.1.1 Heating and Cooling B-8 2.1.2 Lighting and Home Appliances B-8 2.1.3 Residential Electric Energy Conservation B-8 Measures 2.1.3.1 Heating and Cooling 2.1.3.1.1 Improved Thermal Integrity B-15 B-15 2.1.3.2 Heating System Thermostat Setback B-15 2.1.3.3 Set-up Air Conditioner Thermostat B-15 2.1.3.4 Air Conditioner Tune-up B-15 2.1.3.5 Efficiency Improvements in New Air Conditioners B-15 2.1.3.6 Improve Lighting Efficiencies B-15 2.1.3.7 Setback of Electric Water Heater Thermostats B-16 2.1.3.8 Reduce Hot Water Use B-16 2.1.3.9 Improvement in Hot Water Heater Efficiency 2.1.3.10 2.1.3.11 B-16 Improvement in Efficiencies of Refrigerators and Freezers B-16 Summary B-16 i Page 2.1.4 22.1.5 2.2 2.3 Results of Implementation of Potential Residential Conservation Measures B-18 2.1.4.1 B-18 Heating and Cooling Conclusions (Residential Sector) CCommercial Sector B-20 22.2.1 Introduction B-20 22.2.2 ASHRAE 90-75 Standard (Effects of Implementation) B-20 22.2.3 Retrofit and New Construction B-21 2.2.3.1 Building Envelope B-21 2.2.3.2 Building Systems B-22 2.2.3.3 Self Imposed Actions B-26 2.2.3.4 Conservation Targets B-27 22.2.4 Conservation Potential in Maine B-31 22.2.5 Commercial Overview and Conclusions B-31 Industrial Sector B-36 2.3.1 Introduction B-36 2.3.2 Energy Consumption B-36 2.3.3 Conservation Activities B-36 2.3.4 Energy Conservation Projections for the Industrial Sector in Maine 2.3.4.1 Introduction 2.3.4.2 Electrical Energy Coefficients, B-47 Impact of Electrical Energy B-50 Conservation 2.3.5 B-40 B- 40 Maine/USA 2.3.4.3 3.0 B-19 Government Program B-50 Electrical Energy Conservation, Summary and Conclusions B-55 3.1 Introduction B-55 3.2 Savings B-55 3.3 Conclusions B-56 Technical [lote A B-58 References and Bibliography B-68 ii LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Consumption of Electricity Estimated End-Use in percent, Maine B-14 F B-17 2.2 Thermostat Set Back, 2.3 Progress Toward 1980 EPCA Goals B-51 2.4 Paper Industry Status B-53 2.5 Report of the American Paper Institute B-54 11 1 h 1: LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1977 and 1985 2.1 Maine Housing Inventory 2.2 Maine Heating and Cooling Saturations B-9 by Housing Type (1977 and 1985) B-10 (Percent of all units) 2.3 Maine Applicance Saturations by End-Use B-ll (Fraction of Housing inventory) 2.4 Average Annual Consumption per "Appliance" B-12 by End-Use 2.5 Maine Residential Electricity Consumption B-13 by End-Use 2.6 Improved Thermal Integrity Options for B-15 Saving Energy in Maine 2.7 Energy Savings Resulting from Conservation 2.8 Savings as a Result of Insulation Retrofit B-16 Measures B-18 Program 2.9 Present Levels of Weatherization 2.10 Potential Savings from Conservation and Home Appliances for Lighting 2.11 B-18 Measures Impact of ASHRAE 90-75 Standard on Northeastern B-20 Commercial Buildings 2.12 Possible Reductions in Energy Consumption - 2.13 Possible Reduction in Energy Consumption - Prototypical N.E. Retail Store/ASHRAE 90 N.E. School Building/ASHRAE 90 Building Design Conservation 2.15 Potential Savings in Commercial Sector Energy Consumption--New Construction 1979 Energy Conservation Factors for Residential B-25 Building Use and Operation B-26 Conservation Measures 2.19 Possible Energy Conservation 2.20 Electricity 2.21 Summary of Commercial Sector Measures Savings in the CommercialSector B-27 B-28 B-30 Electricity-Saving Targets 2.22 B-23 B-24 and Commercial Buildings 2.18 B-21 Systems and Equipment Conservation Measures 2.17 B-21 B-22 2.14 2.16 B-19 Estimated Savings from Restricting Retail B-30 Hours 2.23 Summaryof Estimated Potential 2.24 Commercial Floorspace in Maine Alternative Conservation iv Savings from Scenarios B-31 B-32 LIST OF TABLES (continued) Table 2.25 Page Northeast Electrical Energy Requirements Per Square Foot of Commercial Space 2.26 Commercial Electrical Energy Consumption 2.27 Commercial Sector 2.28 Estimated 1985 Savings from Alternative in New England and Maine B-33 Electrical Energy Consumption in Maine Conservation Scenarios in Maine 2.29 B-34 B-35 Distribution of Energy Consumption within the Manufacturing Sector: 1971 2.30 Net Energy Consumption per Dollar of Value 2.31 Electrical Energy per Dollar of Value Added Added 1954 - 1990 KWh/S Value Added 1967-1990 2.32 Historical and Projected Energy Requirements 2.33 Maine Manufacturing Sectors 1954 - 1990 B-37 B-38 B-39 B-41 KWh Consumption per $ Value of Shipments 2.34 B-33 B-45 Six Major Manufacturing Energy Users 1967 Comparison of Value Added to Value of Shipments ($xlO9) 2.35 Coefficients Compared to the National Average 2.36 B-46 Industrial Sector Electrical Energy Consumption 1974, 1985 2.37 Maine Electrical Energy Conservation Scenario 2.38 Targets for B-48 B-49 ercentage Improvements in Energy Efficiency 2.39 B-46 Maine Manufacturing Electrical Energy B-50 Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvements as of Dec. 1976 B-52 v 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Discussion - General Until recently, the energy content and efficiencies of processes, equipment, procedures, and consuming devices have been determined almost exclusively by consideration of the following: a) Is it technically feasible? b) Is there a demand? c) At what level of production, use and price will it become economically attractive? At last, we are asking "How much do we need?" a question that has no definite answer. Any answer will depend on the assumptions made about our standards of living, personal mobility, economics, GNP, sources of food and materials, possible technological developments, and, of course, military security. Traditionally, conservation has been virtually ignored or dismissed in works dealing with energy. As recently as 1972, a major U.S. financial institution released the following: "Analysis of the uses of energy reveals little scope for major to the nation's economy and its standard of living...The great utilized for essential purposes...There are some minor uses of regarded as strictly non-essential but their elimination would savings." reduction without harm bulk of the energy is energy that could be not permit any significant (Chase Manhattan Bank, 1972) Forecasts of the Energy Research and Development Administration and the Federal Energy Administration, however, suggest that overall energy consumption can be reduced as much as 30% and that this reduction may be obtainable by the adoption of existing end-use technologies that are more energy-efficient. The newly formed Department of Energy has been charged with the responsibility for the development of conservation programs to reduce demand below current levels. Discussion of the opportunities for "energy conservation" requires public agreement as to: a) establishment of objective(s) b) agreement as to which one(s) are our concern c) consensus as to the "proper" methodology for implementation d) continuous evaluation, so as to optimize desired results while minimizing untoward consequences. 1.2 Definition of Conservation and Motivation for Same Why should we conserve? What do we hope to accomplish by conservation? A listing of reasons suggest how very different the meanings of the term "energy conservation" can assume and, hence, the variations in acceptable methodologies and consequences. do so? Why do we want to At what cost in money or inconvenience are we willing to brook various energy conser- vation measures? 1.2.1 Reduction of Energy (Btu) Consumption Is it, for example, because energy (Btu) consumption threatens to damage the planet (by melting the ice caps or interfering with the protective function of the upper atmosphere)? Then energy consumption in terms of gross Btu must be addressed: 1.2.2 "Dirty Fuels" Is it the consumption of energy derived from a particular fuel(s) or a source(s) that results in undesirable environmental impact? concern with specific environmental impact: B-1 Solutions might properly include primary i Improved extraction. processing, consumption and/or waste disposal of the particular fuel(s); ii Switching from those pollution-causing fuel(s) to others which are less polluting. 1.2.3 'ulnerability of Supply Is it that the U.S.A. reserve/resources of particular fuels are finite? If so, good husbandry might be for the U.S.A. to increase imports and to defer use of domestic supply for emergencies at some time in the future when foreign sources are no longer available. 1.2.4 Balance of Payments Is it prudent, because of economic considerations, to reduce importation of fuels to the point where balance of payments is favorable or acceptable to our economy? Conservation under this premise could be defined as a "re-adjustment" of our consumption patterns and fuel choices with secondary concern of environmental impact. 1.2.5 Cost Are the quantum increases in petroleum prices, and subsequent increase in prices of alternatives due to increased competition for them, sufficient cause and justification for energy conservation? Increases in the productivity of energy are then required for purely economic reasons. Husbandry of particular fuels or conservation for reasons of national security or environmental impact are not then primary considerations. 1.2.6 Conservation of Oil A consideration that is really an extension of 1.2.4 (Balance of Payments), but can be considered separately, is the concept that conservation is defined as the reduction of consumption of oil and in particular, reduction of imports of oil. One way would be to switch from petroleum as a source of energy to electricity derived from coal, nuclear materials or solar derived sources. 1.3 Scope of Paper We will examine the opportunities for the reduction of the consumption of electricity in Maine (not by switching to other forms of energy) to determine if by 1986 electricity demand per capita will have been reduced. 1.4 Problems in the Implementation of Conservation In our study of how energy conservation can be accomplished, we have had to consider the following questions and suggested answers: a) What "drives" the individual consumer, commercial organization, or industry? b) Can those driving forces, once identified and fully understood, be reached and manipulated with the facility of an organ ("fundamental frequency." "overtones," "loudness," and "harmony," etc.) so as to "steer" the economy as desired? Improper and uninformed manipulation will result in economic and social discord. c) What constraints exist as far as laws, customs or beliefs (domestic and worldwide) and what rreversibilities in degree of government participation, interference, and financial support are involved? d) Who has the responsibility and authority to influence the levels of energy consumption in the several sectors? If an energy conservation measure or action is cost-effective, and obviously so, it will probably be adopted. The basic driving forces have not been identified nor have they been tested to determine the degree of effectiveness and the undersirable "side effects" of each. B-2 __ I Without this information we will not be able to steer the forces and control their various intensities for maximum effectiveness and a minimum of "damage". Government activity in relation to the determination of targets and control of energy consumption in those areas is considered by some to constitute another encroachment upon civil liberties. If this is a valid or possible hazard the American people must be made aware of the potential so that they establish the necessary safeguards. Once "made aware" of an energy issue, it is the public that then decides what it It Is the "informed consent" that is will permit the "government" to do about it. granted to specific groups who have the necessary authority and confidence of the public to influence the levels of energy consumption. There are countless users of energy using countless quantities of energy in countless ways. Even though a standard, known energy-consuming device (car, home, appliance, etc.) may have a measurable energy consumption data sheet on the "shipping platform," the end-use energy consumption data will be different for each unit. There are, to be sure, "classes" but the resultant numbers derived from classification into "groups" are broad estimates. There are less than ten principal internal combustion, surface transportation vehicle manufacturers in the United States. It was "relatively" easy to enact legislation that could result in the increasing of miles-per-gallon performance of automobiles. The laws are simple and compliance is easy to monitor. It is also "relatively" easy to enact legislation, operating through the avenues of federal loan guarantee programs or building codes, to result in all new housing construction to comply with particular, and well-defined lifetime energy costs. It is not at all easy to enact legislation that would result in householders maintaining thermostats below and/or above certain values. It is not at all easy to enact legislation that will result in humans turning off lights when not needed. 1.5 Actions/Measures to Result in Conservation Every conservation measure involves the four following considerations: a) technical feasibility b) economic viability c) social acceptability d) political possibility There are three kinds of actions that can be used to induce people to adopt energy conservation measures: a. b. Exhortation: Policy" Advisory/informational policies (educational, labeling) Incentive/disincentive type actions ("carrot" and "stick",-subsidies and taxes). c. Proscriptive: Mandatory/regulatory policies (prohibition of use of certain equipment, building codes). Of all three, exhortation has proven to be the least effective. temporary response. There is only Speed limits are ignored, thermostats are reset to pre-embargo levels, etc. Common to all three is uncertainty in identification, prediction, and sometimes measurements of: a. The degree to which people will respond to a given action, even a mandatory one. B-3 b. The length of time between initiation of the measure and detectable response, There are existing stocks of appliances which will have to "run a normal life" before replacement. The lifetime of the existing stocks are different so that retirement is complex and extends over a time period, c. The overall supply perturbations and possible movements of consumers from each form of energy to others. d. The interactions between domestic and world energy supply, demand, policies, and technological, social, economic, and political developments. The major problem then, is to convince the public that there are energy supply and demand issues, that these issued have to be addressed and that in the area of energy conservation there may be actions or measures which will be expensive and/or inconvenient. The success of energy conservation measures will be dependent on how much the public perceives each requested action is valid or credible, 1.6 Assessment of Conservation Measures 1.6.1 Evaluation A program for the assessment of strategies and methods for conserving energy should be designed so as to produce a broad gauge appraisal of alternative methods for controlling or moderating the consumption of energy. This task, to identify those sectors, technologies, and policy changes, required specification of a set of evaluation criteria, Any recommended change in policy or new technical development must be evaluated in terms of its overall effect on society, including; i standard analysis of measurable economic costs nd benefits, including long-run consequences, and ii environmental effects, both favorable and unfavorable, Furthermore, the analysis should treat these outcomes as uncertain, as they always are, and present the range of possible first-and higher-order effects along with some Judgment as to relative likelihood, 1.6.2 Effectiveness This is a measure of how much energy might be conserved by a particular technological change or revision in public policy, i Effectiveness is a combination of; the overall magnitude of the category of energy consumption affected (home heating may be more energy consuming than refrigeration so should receive prime attention) ii the amount of change in energy consumption to the particular changes contemplated (the introduction of increased home insulation will yield greater energy savinas per household in Vermont or Texas than it will in Hawaii) iii responsiveness to normal market forces and to policy developments apart from those directed specifically to energy conservation (e,g., environmental laws, policy changes), 1.6.3 "Turn-around-Time" This is a close corollary of the effectiveness criterion, The "turn-around-time" is the length of the period between the initiation of an action or measure and when the reduction of consumption of energy becomes noticeable or significant, B-4 Some technological applications, policy changes, and practices may yield rapid reductions in energy. Otheres may take many years to yield significant changes. 1.6.4 Political and Administrative Feasibility A complete assessment must consider the steps necessary to implement particular conservation measures and the relative likelihood that they can actually be carried out successfully. The existence of a favorable economic and environmental assessment does not mean it can actually be adopted. Furthermore, a decision to adopt a particular measure does not necessarily guarantee that it will be carried out as originally intended. A great deal depends on the orientation and capacity of the existing and potential agencies that will be involved in the details of implementation. 1.7 Summary Comment In the absence of comprehensive evaluation of response to conservation activities on the part of government agencies, we have found that the real world does not permit an accurate prediction and quantification of the amount of energy that can be saved or the time scale and schedule of the savings. Conservation will be the result of interactive decisions of millions of individuals and thousands of industries, and hundreds of political units (federal, state, local). We can only identify the potentials and make crude estimated of what might happen if one were to initiate a conservation action or measure, The government agencies must initiate the procedure, once having judged that something might be feasible, of making trial start and observing the results. a In order to establish its effectiveness and minimize damage they must be prepared to continue, modify, or cancel the action or measure as time passes and situations alter. B-5 2.0 ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSERVATION POTENTIAL IN MAINE The potential for electrical energy conservation in the United States, and more specifically in the state of Maine, is difficult to estimate, There have been extensive studies completed to date by the Federal Energy Administration and others which report on the potential for savings in fuels, Within certain sectors there have been studies completed to estimate electrical energy savings by specific end-use such as appliances in the household and, to a lesser degree, in commercial and industrial establishments, The summary study which follows is divided into four major sectors; residential, industrial, commercial, and electric utility. For each sector, a review of available literature on electrical energy conservation was undertaken, In addition; for the residential, industrial, and commercial sectors, there is a projection of electrical consumption in the State of Maine to 1985 and an estimate of the level of electrical energy conservation possible in that sector. It should be noted at the outset that only limited information was available for conservation potential in manufacturing and the electrical utility sectors. To date the majority of the nationally oriented analyses of electric energy conservation potential have focused on the residential or household sector, with limited additional analyses completed in the commercial and industrial areas, Companies, individually, have analyzed their energy requirements and many have initiated conservation measures There is no collation of the results of the several individual actions. The state of Maine has recently completed a comprehensive energy study, This plan charts the history of energy consumption for the state and dwells, in summary form only, upon the relevance of electrical energy conservation in the state, While the study focused strongly on the potential for total energy savings in the major sectors, little attention was paid to the potential for saving of electricity, The executive summary of the referenced report which describes the scenarios follows. It can be seen that these options pay little attention to electric energy conservation; Transportation - Conservation projections'for the transportation sector are based on increased fuel economics mandated by Federal law, and an increasing proportion of smaller automobiles, Residential - Conservation in the residential sector is based on two criteria, First, it is assumed that all new housing will be built to a minimum standard of energy efficiency. And, second, it is also assumed that some existing housing will be winterized to improve their energy efficiency, Commercial - The amount of conservation which can be expected from the commercial sector will come mainly from reductions in lighting and heating, with some conservation also through operation changes which will reduce energy consumption, Industrial - Since the embargo of 1973-74, industries in Maine have significantly reduced their energy use. By improving efficiencies in their operations and installing new equipment, this trend is expected to continue, Miscellaneous - The amount of energy conservation possible through conservation activities in addition to those listed above is not readily quantifiable, It is possible that electric powered automobiles may increase in number so that they will have to be considered as a significant consumer of electricity (for recharging of batteries). This eventuality has not been addressed in this paper but should not be ignored in studies that may be made five years from now. B-6 The analysis which follows reflects the work of the Maine Energy Planning Office, the Electric Power Research Institute, the Federal Energy Administration, the Energy Research and Development Administration and others in attempting to quantify the potential for electric energy consumption and conservation in the state of Maine. 2.1 Residential Sector 2.1.0 DemandCharacteristics Base Residential and Methodology The consumption of electricity in Maine since 1950 has shown the most significant and dramatic gain among the residential terms..."residential (12.6% of the total in 1974...". electricity consumption increased steadily from 6.2 x 1012 Btu* demand) in 1950 to 26.6 x 1012Btu (34.0% of the total) residential Residential energy sources in both absolute and relative energy consumption as a fraction remainedfairly constantsince 1950 at approximately of the total 25-30 percent. consumption has But in absolute terms, the residential consumption of energy in Maine increased 58 percent between 1950 and 1974. Since the demand for any energy source is a derived demand (one does not demand electricity per se, one demands that which the electricity operates) it is necessary to analyze the residential demand for electricity by end use category. The methodology employed in this analysis is represented by the following equation: = RE i H S. * E. 1 i 1 where REi = residential electricity consumption by end use i. H = total Maine housing inventory Si = saturation (as percent of housing inventory) for end use i Fi = unit energy demand for end use i This simple relationship functions well when one analyzes appliance consumption, but not as well when space heating is considered due to significant variations in heating system and requirements by housing type. To make predictions it is thus necessary to predict the future housing stock mix. Fortunately, a computerized simulation model of this type has been developed by Richard Daifuku at the Brookhaven National Laboratory and later implemented at the New England Energy Management Information System (NEEMIS) of the Energy Laboratory of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for each New England state3 . In addition to pro- jecting housing demand by housing type, age and fuel type, the model predicts fuel demand for each housing type based on engineering relationships within prototypical residences. This structure allows one to modify the state's residence characteristics (insulation levels, storm doors, storm windows and weatherstripping levels) to determine potential effects of these measures on fuel consumption. The results of this analysis for Maine are discussed in detail later. The remainder of of residential this section will describe the current and future (1985) characteristics electricity consumption in Maine in terms of the end use categories: heating and cooling, lighting and home appliances. B-7 2.1.1 Heating and Cooling In Table 2.1 are listed the current and predicted Maine housing inventory by housing type (single-family detached (SFD); single-family attached (SFA); multi-family low rise (MFLR); multi-family high rise (MFHR); and mobile homes), year built and heating system fuel type. Notice that the heating systems in the current and future inventory are predominantly oilburning. Also, an insignificant number of electrically heated homes were constructed in Maine prior to 1964. 1977 and 1985. heated. The total housing inventory is projected to grow by 9 percent between Thirty-eight 3 percent of the new homes are projected to be electrically The proportion of all homes that employ electric heating systems and central air conditioning are presented in Table 2.2. 2.1.2 Lighting and Home Appliances Saturations and unit consumption demands for lighting and home appliances are indicated in Tables 2.3 and 2.4 respectively. The projection of appliance saturation to 1985 is based 12 on past national trends as reported in current issues of the periodical "Merchandising Week"' and by the Central Maine Power Saturation Survey, 19762. It is of course impossible to predict, especially for one state, appliance saturation with great accuracy given the uncertain effects of fuel and materials prices, tastes and technological change. It is felt that the approach used provided a good balance between historical trends and good judgment. The results of the Daifuku base case analysis and of the implementation of the equation presented earlier are shown in Table 2.5. Notice that the percent share of electricity to space heating is predicted to increase relative to all other categories. The total consumption figures correspond very well to the predictions made by the Maine Office of Energy Resources. These numbers do not reflect transmission line loss since they are included as consumption at the point of use. Figure 2.1 presents these results in diagrammatical form. 2.1.3 Residential Electric Energy Conservation Measures This section describes specific physical actions that could be taken by a homeowner, home builder or appliance manufacturer to reduce the amount of electric energy that would normally be used in a given household function. This discussion constitutes a review of the existing residential energy conservation literature as specifically applied to electric energy. The demand for electric energy in the residential sector can be conveniently divided into three end-use categories: space heating and cooling, lighting, and home appliances. The home appliance category is dominated by water heaters, kitchen ranges, televisions, refrigerators, food freezers, and clothes dryers. Potential conservation measures exist within each category. Some of the measures can be taken only as a result of voluntary homeowner action, others can be mandated by government action. stock. Some apply only to new houses or appliances, others can affect the existing Deliberately excluded from this discussion are energy conservation measures that save fuel other than electricity, and measures which are capital-intensive such as the introduction of solar energy systems and the substitution of, or augmentation by, heat pumps for electric resistance heating units. These latter measures may be partially viable alternatives but they are not likely to make contributions in Maine for several years. B-8 TABLE 2.1 MAINE HOUSING INVENTORY 1977 and 1985 1977 INVENTORY (xlOOO UNITS) SFD · CATEGORY 1965-1977 1965-1977 1965-1977 1940-1965 1940-1965 Pre-1940 Pre-1940 ELEC OIL GAS OIL GAS OIL GAS TOTAL SFA MFLR MFHR ROBILE 9 19 0 3 9 0 2 2 0 0 5 20 57 1 8 0 4 0 1 21 3 37 1 14 0 2210 58 22 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0 0 0 4 25 __ TOTAL INVENTORY 319 1985 INVENTORY (xlOOO UNITS) CATEGORY 1977-1985 1977-1985 1977-1985 1965-1977 ELEC OIL GAS ELEC 1965-1977 OIL 1965-1977 GAS 1940-1965 OIL SFD SFA MFLR MFHR MOBILE 6 6 8 0 1 3 0 112 32 0 0 3 9 2 2 0 0 0 0 54 1 5 4 14 0 9 19 1 3 1940-1-965 GAS 0 Pre-1940 Pre-1940 OIL 116 0 25 0 0 0 12 0 GAS 3 1 0 0 TOTAL 222 54 24 4 TOTAL INVENTORY 348 SFD - single family detached SFA - single family attached MFLR - multiple family low rise MFHR - multiple family high rise (from Daifuku, 1974) 3-9 0 0 0 0 0 0 D '{ 44 TABLE 2.2 MAINE HEATING AND COOLING SATURATIONS BY HOUSING TYPE (1977 and 1985) (Percent of all units) CENTRAL A/C SFD SFA MFLR MFHR MOBILE 1977 .005 .002 .006 .008 .004 1985 .020 .008 .024 .082 .016 SFA MFLR ELECTRIC HEATING SYSTEM SFD MFHR MOBILE .19 1977 .04 .05 .09 .00 1985 .06 .11 .12 .00 (from Daifuku, 1974) SFD - single family detached SFA - single family attached MFLR - multiple family low rise MFHR - multiple family high rise B-10 27. ALL UNITS .05 .10 TABLE 2.3 MAINE APPLICANCE SATURATIONS BY END USE (FRACTION OF HOUSING INVENTORY) END USE 1977 1985 LIGHTING 1.00 1.00 AIR CONDITIONING (ROOM) .11(a) .17(b) ELECTRIC WATER HEATING .46(e) .54(d) ELECTRIC COOKING .67(c) .79(d) DISHWASHING .24(a) .32(d) CLOTHES WASHING .68(a) .83(d) CLOTHES DRYING .46(c) .55(d) COLOR TELEVISION .53(a) .70(d) BLACK & WHITE TELEVISION .62(a) .46(e) FOOD FREEZING;! .35(c) .42(d) OTHER REFRIGERATION 1.00 1.00 SOURCES: (a) Central Maine Power ('b) Linear Extrapolation Based on 1965-1976 Central Maine Power Saturation Data (c) Based on U.S. Census Data for Maine, 1970 (d) Growth to 1977 and 1985 derived by applying national annual saturation growth rate as reported in June 1976 issue of Merchandising (e) Assumes color televisions displace black and white televisions B-11 TABLE 2.4 AVERAGE ANNUAL CONSUMPTION PER "APPLIANCE" BY END USE 'Consumption KWh e 'END USE LIGHTING 937 AIR CONDITIONING (ROOM) 820 ELECTRIC WATER HEATING (a) 5446 ELECTRIC COOKING 1084 OTHER DISHWASHING 381 CLOTHES WASHING 103 CLOTHES DRYING 996 COLOR TELEVISION 498 BLACK & WHITE TELEVISION 380 FOOD FREEZING 141 REFRIGERATION 132 Note: (a) Brookhaven National Lab, for New England Weighted by Housing Type for New England Region B-12 TABLE 2.5 MAINE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY END USE .(AT6 POINT OF USE) (10 Btu equivalent kwhe) (no Conservation) % 1977 HEATING CENTRAL COOLING LIGHTING 1985 % 1,180,552 12.4 2,094.968 17.0 5,118 0.1 8,530 0.1 1,020,800 10.7 1,113,600 9.0 98,252 1.0 165,648 1.3 3,228,280 33.9 4,134,240 33.6 COOKING 790,801 8.3 1,017,204 8.3 DISHWASHER 100,772 1.1 144,768 1.2 76,034 0.8 101,094 0.8 498,916 5.2 650,760 5.2 AIR CONDITIONING WATER HEAT-ING WASHING MACHINE DRYER COLORTV 298,588 3.1 412,345 3.4 BLACK & WHITETV 257,114 2.7 208,104 1.7 FREEZER 531,326 5.6 693,216 5.7 15.1 1,566,000 12.7 100.0 12,310,477 REFRIGERATOR TOTAL - -1,435,500 9,513,053 (Heating & Cooling from Daifuku, 1977) The remainder as adopted from reference P. Carpenter of M.I.T. B-13 by 100.0 IG 1977 1985 Figure 2.1 Consumption of Electricity Estimated End-Use in percent, Maine B-14 2.1.3.1 Heating and Cooling 2.1.3.1.1 Improved Thermal Integrity Weatherization actions that improve the thermal integrity sulation of the house include increased in- in the roof, floors, and walls, and the installation of storm windows doors, and weather- stripping. The Maine Energy Conservation Workshop at Harvard University in June, 19.77 (Maine Enersy Conservation Workshop, 1977) indicated that the following options (Table 2.6) would be the most appropriate means of saving energy through improved thermal integrity: Table 2.6 IMPROVED THERMAL INTEGRITY OPTIONS FOR SAVING ENERGY IN MAINE Option Level 1. Weatherstripping 100% of windows 2. Storm windows 100% of windows and doors 3. Storm doors 100% of doors 4. Wall insulation R-ll (3-1/4 inches) 5. Floor insulation R-19 (6 inches) 6. Ceiling insulation R-19 (6 inches) R-30 (9 inches) R- 38 (12 inches) In this analysis, the third ceiling insulation option (R-33, 12 inches) is used in combination with the five other option levels identified above. 2.1.3.2 Heating System Thermostat Setback For the purposes of this analysis, we assume a setback of 4F 0 and a setback of 12 F during eight hours of the night. during sixteen hours of the day While it is not known precisely what thermostat settings predominate in Maine, national experience indicates normal inside house daytime temperatures of 72-750 F during the heating season. Thus, the measures above would indicate setbacks to 68-710 F du- ring the day and 60-630 F during the night. 2.1.3.3 Set-up Air Conditioner Thermostat This analysis evaluates the potential savings from a central air conditioner thermostat set-up of 6F, from 72 to 780 F. 2.1.3.4 Air Conditioner Tune-up This measure involves an annual tune-up of central air-conditioning installations by a professional maintenance person. 2.1.3.5 Efficiency Improvements in New Air Conditioners The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (Moyers, 1973) estimates that the average energy efficiency ratio (EER) of room air conditioners is approximately 6.5 Btu/watt-hour. This discussion will assume that this average EER value can be raised by one-third to 8.7 Btu/watt-hour. 2.1.3.6 Improve Lighting Efficiencies There are currently many energy-efficient electric lamps on the market which provide higher light levels for the same electrical input as incandescent lamps. While these new lamps tend to have a higher initial cost, their longer lifetimes and lower operating costs make them reasonable dollar and energy conservation options to the homeowner. lamp fixtures with fluorescent lamp fixtures. It is possible to replace many incandescent It should be emphasized that simply turning off lights or the use of more efficient lamps in the winter season does not save appreciable amounts of energy since the entire energy input to the lamp is discharged into the living area as heat, heat which an electric or other type of space heating system need not provide. The implementation of these measures in the summer season, however, is a reasonable energy conservation measure. B-15 2.1.3.7 Setback of Electric Water Heat Thermostats As in measures 2.1.3.2 and 2.1.3.3, thermostat setback on domestic water heaters can be implemented by the homeowner without capital outlay. We assume a setback of 20 °F, e.g., from 140 down to 1200 F. 2.1.3.8 Reduce Hot Water Use This measure has both energy and water conservation advantages. This study evaluates the savings based on a reduction in use of one-third. 2.1.3.9 Improvement in Hot Water Heater Efficiency Electric water heaters are estimated to be 79% efficient at point of use. through poor tank insulation. Most losses occur Redesign of water heaters to provide added insulation could save substantial amounts of electricity. 2.1.3.10 Improvement in Efficiencies of Refrigerators and Freezers Large electricity savings appear to be possible through improved refrigerator and freezer design. Existing products of this type on the market vary in efficiency by a factor of two. standards will help the consumer identify the most efficient unit. Product labeling Some of the potential design changes (MIT-CPA, 1974) include: a.. Change from single to polyphase motors, thereby increasing motor efficiency fro.,65 tO 75i b. Change insulation from fiberglass to polyurethane; c. Use condenser turbine in lieu of resistance heaters. 2.1.3.11 Summary The assumed energy savings and sources for each of these conservation measures (as described above) are indicated in Table 2.7. Of course, the exact savings depend on the "penetration" into the sector of each measure, climatic, economic, and other conditions. as moderate potentials. These values should be considered Measure 2.1.3.1 (improved thermal integrity) is not includedin the table since savings from this measure were determined specifically for Maine through the use of a computerized simulation model (to be discussed in the results section). Savings from measure 2.1.3.2, heating system thermostat setback, is described by the relationship between local climate and the size of the setback shown in Figure 2.2. Table 2.7 ENERGY SAVINGS RESULTING FROM CONSERVATION MEASURES Measure Savings, Percent 2.1.3.2 Heating Thermostat Setback (1) 2.1.3.3 A/C Thermostat Set-up (2) 6 2.1.3.4 A/C Tune-up (2) 5 2.1.3.5 Improve A/C Efficiencies (3) 2.1.3.6 Improve Lighting Efficiencies (3) 2.1.3.7 Water Heater Thermostat Setback (2) 25 2.1.3.8 Reduce Hot Water Use (2) 27 2.1.3.9 Improve Water Heater Efficiency (2) 10 2.1.3.10 Improve Efficiency of Refrigerators and Freezers (2) 20 25 5 50 (1) See Figure 2.2, A Weighted Averaqe of Daytime and Night. (2) From Dole, 1975. (3) From Lee, 1975. B-16 nv 2000 80 3000 60 4000 5000 4. C 6000 U I 7000 0. 8000 ) C W 9000 40 C a) C (A U, 20 . 5 Thermostat Set Back, °F Figure 2.2 Minimum savings of heating energy obtainable by means of: thermostat set-back throughout heating season as function of heating degree days from (Dole,1975) B-17 Maine 2.1.4 Results of Implementation of Potential Residential Conseryation Measures 2.1.4.1 Heating and Cooling Table 2.8 describes the potential savings from the thermal integrity program described earlier. It is interesting to note that, for all intents and purposes, 100% of the electrically heated homes in Maine have their full complement of storm doors, storm windows, and weatherstripping (Maine Energy Conservation Workshop, 1977). Present levels of weatherization in Maine are indicated in Table 2.9. The savings indicated result solely from improved home insulation, installed to the levels suggested earlier. The fact that most electrically heated homes are so well fitted can be attributed to the fact that electricity costs have been such that home weatherization has made great economic sense in Maine. Table 2.8 SAVINGS AS A RESULT OF INSULATION RETROFIT PROGRAM (10 KWhe) Heating Cooling (Central) 1977 1985 245 212 2 2 0.0029 0. 029 from (Daifuku, 1977) Table2.9 PRESENT LEVELSOF WEATHERIZATION Prototype Category Structural Category Ceilings Wall Floor WeatherInsulation Insulation Insulation Stripping (R-Value) (R-Value) (R-Value) (% of units) Storm Windows (% of units) SFD Storm Doors (% of units) 1965-77 e 1965-77 d 1940-65 d 1940-65 m pre-1940 du pre-1940 mu pre-1940 di pre-1940 mi 19 19 11 11 0 0 7 7 11 11 7 7 0 0 1 1 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 1965-77 e 1965-77 d 1940-65 d pre-1940 du pre-1940 mu pre-1940 di 19 19 11 0 0 7 11 11 7 0 0 1 11 6 0 0 0 0 100 30 30 30 30 30 100 80 80 80 80 80 100 80 80 80 80 80 MFLR 1965-77 e 1965-77 d 1940-65 d pre-1940 du pre-1940 di 19 19 11 0 7 11 11 7 0 1 11 6 0 0 0 100 30 30 30 30 100 80 80 80 80 100 80 80 80 80 8 0 0 30 59 80 11 11 7 7 11 11 100 30 100 s0 100 50 SFA MFHR 1965-77 d MH electric fossil e = electrical d = oil m = gas du = oil uninsulated SFD - singlefamilydetached SFA = singlefamilyattached MFLR- multiple familylow rise MFHR- multiple familyhighrise mu = oas uninsulated di = oil insulated mi = gas insulated Source:MaineEnergyConservation Workshop, (1977) B-18 Table 2.10 indicates the potential savings for each suggested conservation measure for 1985. One should hesitate to conclude that total savings can be obtained by adding up the individual values since some measures may be mutually exclusive (such as water heater thermostat setback and reduced hot water use). It is clear, however, that at least 25% of total i985.residential electricity con- sumption could be conserved if these measures were implemented. Table 2.10 POTENTIAL SAVINGS FROM CONSERVATION MEASURES FOR LIGHTING AND HOME APPLIANCES Measure 1985 Savings 106 Btu 106 KWhe 418,994 123 2. Heating Thermostat Setback 3. A/C Thermostat 4. A/C Tune-up 426 0.12 5. Improve A/C Efficiencies 41,412 12.1 6. Improve Lighting Efficiencies 55,680 16.3 7. Water Heating 8. Reduce Hot Water Use 9. Improve Water Heater Efficiency 10. Set-up Thermostat 512 Setback 0.15 1,033,560 302 1,116,245 327 (164) 41.432 12.1 1,129,608 379.7 ImproveEfficiency of Refrigerators and Freezers 2.1.5 Conclusions (Residential Sector) If we assume that the effects of reduced hot water use are diluted by 50% due to the other water heater measures and include in Table 2.10 the potential savings shown in Table 2.8 then total electrical energy savings in the residential sector in Maine in 1985 would (could is a much more exact word) be greater than 4.0 x 1012 Btu input or 1.2 x 109 KWhe. This represents a power plant with a capacity of 186 MWe operating on an 0.75 capacity factor. We caution, however, that these savings are estimates. We have absolutely no way of estima- ting how much, in fact, will be accomplished in the way of energy conservation. There are several reasons for the "softness": a. First, these calculated savings are in error by the same 1974) and the amount introduced by the MIT/NEEMIS modification. amount of the data base (Daifuku, These errors can be determined only by more "field tests." b. Secondly, they are theoretical potential savings if all new housing were according to a minimum energy-consumption-based code and all appliances were energy-efficient. c. "Turn-around time" permits realization of savings only over a period of time beginning some time after the enactment of the measure or action. d. Many potential savings are achievable only through strongly enforced mandatory regulations over the whole USAand then only if the public agrees with the government's perception of an "energy crisis." e. The increase in cost of electricity over the past (post-oil ready resulted in some space and hot water heating thermostat setback. embargo)years mayhave alThe original 740 F and 0 140 F upper limits may now in Maine, on an average, have been reduced from 74°F to 720 F, and from 1400 F to 1300 F. If so, the savings calculated by the state and federal governments, and by this report, may be high. B-19 2.2 Commercial Sector 2.2.1 Introduction The commercial sector represents a wide range of unrelated activities, among them retail stores, office buildings, hotels and motels, recreational facilities and warehouses. building type used in this study are as follows: The definitions of office buildings, retail buildings, schools and educational facilities, hospitals and health centers, and others. Although this category covers a diverse set of activities, the categorization allows for identification of alternative conservation measures common to buildings within that group. The sections discuss the findings of several studies of commercial sector energy and, where available, electrical energy conservation opportunities. 2.2.2 ASHRAE 90-75 Standard (Effects of Implementation) The ASHRAE 90-75 Standard (hereafter called ASHRAE 90) refers to those building standards released in August, 1975 by the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration, and Air Conditioning Engineers. These standards, if implemented in new construction, could save energy. These measures include: minimum thermal performance criteria decreased ventilation rates increased equipment insulation and efficiency Maine has developed its own building standards, incorporating some of the standards of ASHRAE 90. Table 2.11 identifies the energy reductions, both in total energy consumed and in electricity, if ASHRAE 90 were implemented in newly constructed commercial buildings. Table 2.11 IMPACT OF ASHRAE 90-75 STANDARD ON NORTHEASTERN COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS (percent reduction) All Energy Electricity Office Buildings 61.5 35.3 Retail Stores 41.6 33.0 School Buildings 45.6 27.3 (For a typical northeastern office building, those components that typically use electricity experienced the following energy use reductions:) Cooling 38.2% Auxiliaries* 37.2% Fans 60.2% Lighting & Power 29.1% (from Arthur D. Little Inc., 1975) *Includes hot water, chilled water, condenser pumps, cooling tower fans, and toilet exhaust fans. None of the indicated reductions equal or exceed the overall energy reduction in the building. In the overall building, the four energy end-uses (cooling, auxiliaries, fans, lighting and power) comprise 57.2% of total energy used in the ASHRAE 90 modified office building versus 34.1% in the conventional office building When the ASHRAE 90 was applied to a proto-typical retail store, an average reduction of 40.1% resulted. A northeastern retail store is estimated to reduce energy consumption by 41.6% The actual energy requirements were significantly higher for the ASHRAE 90 modified retail store, 68.5% higher in the northeast proto-typical retail store (where consumption is estimated to be 162.3 Btu per square B-20 foot) than in the northeast proto-typical office buildings (where consumption is estimated to be 96.3 Btu per square foot). For the proto-typical northeastern retail store, those components that typically use electricity experienced the following energy use reductions as listed in Table 2.12. Table 2.12 POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION - PROTOTYPICAL N.E. RETAIL STORE/ASHRAE 90 Cooling 9.8% Auxiliary* 33.3% Fans 42.6% Lighting & Power 31.5% *Includes hot water, chilled water, condenser pumps, cooling tower fans, and toilet exhaust fans. (from Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1975) A reduction in energy use by fans, which consume approximately one-third of the enerqv requirements per square foot of retail space, is higher than the reduction in the overall building. This is indi- cative of a strong contribution by this change that will reduce electrical energy demand. The average annual reduction in overall energy requirements of the proto-typical school building due to the application of ASHRAE 90 was found to be 48.2%. In the Northeast, a school building could decrease its consumption by 45.6% by instituting ASHRAE 90. In those school building end-use sectors which typically are run by electricity, energy-use reductions were estimated to be as shown in Table 2.13. Table 2.13 POSSIBLE REDUCTION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION - N.E. SCHOOL BUILDING/ASHRAE 90 Cooling 44.8% Auxiliaries* 55.3% Fans 33.3% Lighting & Power 19.9% *Includes hot water, chilled water, condenser pumps, cooling tower fans, and toiler exhaust fans. (from Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1975) 2.2.3 Retrofit and New Construction In general, there are three prime areas in which a commercial building can obtain optimum energy use through conservation. self-imposed actions. They are the building envelope, the building systems, and the The first two may be implemented through engineering design, while the third involves the human element. 2.2.3.1 Building Envelope The exterior or shell design of a building and the material with which the building is made determine the building's resistance to heat gain or loss. efficiency of the building include: Some factors influencing the energy glass area, insulation in walls and roofs, exterior solar shading (air conditioning), solar enhancement (heating), building orientation and/or landscaping. Unless the building is an all-electric space-heated building, changing the characteristics of the building through retrofitting or in new construction design would not significantly reduce electricity demand. As can be seen in Table 2.14 which follows, the potential effect of implementing energy conservation measures in the building envelope would have little net effect on energy consumption. B-21 Table 2.14 .BUILDING DESIGN CONSERVATION MEASURES Conservation Measure ·Proxy for Maximum Sector Response Reduce window area A 25 percent reduction of window area in new buildings from 26 percent Use insulating glass A 50 percent introduction of insulating (double) glass in both new and existing buildings Install external shades and/or filtering glass A year-round 25 percent reduction in solar flux Increased insulation A reduction of 0.1 in the current industry average U factor in new building walls, no retrofit Building orientation A change from random orientation in 50 percent of new structures to an optimum orientation Net new construction Energy conservation Potential (percent) Electricity Fossil Fuel Retrofit potential (Percent of new) 14 (1) 16 1 , 100 100 7 1 \ I', (from Salter, et al., 1976, p.40) 2.2.3.2 Building Systems Building systems consist of the mechanical and electrical components utilized in a structure for heating, air conditioning, water heating, lighting, and other services. The design of the systems and selection of the mode of operation will greatly influence the energy use within a building. ASHRAE 90 has attempted to set standards that would minimize energy use in newly constructed office buildings. Electrical energy conservation measures that could be instituted in old buildings could include: Electric Heat Pumps --used in connection with resistance heating heat, pumps can potentially reduce the overall electric energy used for heat System Design -- potential savings of 5 to 30 percent resulting from the application of this technique as a result of the following approaches: Eliminate simultaneous heating and cooling of a room or zone Reduce required heating and cooling capacities by proper structure design Design systems for optimum efficiency Cool with outside air whenever possible Select efficiently operating equipment Select light levels and sources that reduce energy consumption Higher Electric Efficiency Ratings (EER) -- improved air condition EER can reduce energy consumption during the cooling cycle in a building by 20% or better. More Efficient Light Fixtures -- eight-foot fluorescent tubes which emit the same level of light at a cost of 60 watts versus the standard 80 watts of two each four-foot lamps. Table 2.15 summarizes the potential electrical and fossil fuel savings expected in newly constructed commercial buildings in 1979. B-22 () 4J a) E aS- cr -- < -- -- r- C) U-r-r- U) 0 0 oL Oo o o Ln 4J E 0 U) E4 rcLJ O r.- a O '- 0 4 -A 0 OO LO 00 O · r -c U) r0 _to C LU) ooa-, 0 0000 LO - C LO NC' c- 4-) 0000 ra LU 0 00 !- O ) 00 - U) a! 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(,LU) a) 3 c C Ln M X SO 44a 0 C= > L V)t n AO 4,) L L LL ', r3).- CL 0)LU c Cl) Z LU r 'F.L U.- . 0 I r-4- o- C o >- 0 4 C =( C +._ - u a) O 3 F *X Eo - O 4x O a(D- .C. 4-0o a) _c4 4 - C): OCO c,-- · )a) v) 0. a >4-- u 4-C C *,-C . r- )4, S. 4 Q)r4S- > '- U 4. *- a W 4 >O 0O,--1 S- C (a . 4 r' 0 ' :3c U L, 4-r - E- - ) C- a. c. q.) - U LS a 4i - ). --Unr ..Oa) C - v) ur ,). - 0_ ) -oU -Q 0 a) 4- 4-) 0-S. rCL a) 34 C a OU - 4o.J - a ' 4--- ^ c - 0 >, o -. 4 E Z ( - o >,- ,) O0 O 0 SS- 44-) C U l) tLn - 4.' 0o C4C ' '-a C00 - U 0 SO 4 OO U 3 4 5-. 0D a N I CC a) a) C)(- --to a) 3 rU a) l L -* 1 CLt1) L _ "N a *C U QnC UQa) .4 3 )-- 4 O 4-C C' O O 0 ")? -r* vtfl U ) C'm -. 0u O- X r'C ar-- ) a) r V-u) - C O c 0 IC _ CI a) C- o T c 0) 0 4 to U:a. 4 C IS . C o c - B-24 C4-3 O 0) -' v tu' n c sU a) c0 .) q S. >a 3 2 In the final draft of the FEA Project Independence Blueprint, energy conservation factors for four buildings representing four geographical regions were assessed (see Table 2.17). Each index represents the probable average energy consumption achieved for energy conservation (defined as those performance guidelines specified in (1) HUD's New Minimum Property Standard, and (2) Design and Evaluation Criteria for Energy Conservation in New Buildings) across all new and existing buildings within the same category. These energy savings are the sum of electrical and fossil fuel savings, thus they do not represent except in only a very crude fashion potential electrical energy savings. Table 2.17 Energy Conservation Factors for Residential and Commercial Buildings Note: Combined fossil fuel and electricity (1970 = 1.00) Existing Buildings New Construction Office Buildings Lighting Auxiliary Equipment Space Heating Cooling Hot Water Heating .80 .95 .78 .82 .95 .50 .90 .60 .53 .90 Retail Establishments Lighting Auxiliary Equipment Space Heating Cooling Hot Water Heating .70 .95 .76 .76 .95 .50 .90 .50 .54 .90 Schools, Educational Lighting Auxiliary Equipment Space Heating Cooling Hot Water Heating .80 .95 .79 .81 .95 .50 .90 .50 .59 .90 Hospitals Lighting Auxiliary Equipment Space Heating Cooling Hot Water Heating .80 .95 .84 .91 1.00 .60 .90 .60 .67 .90 (from Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1974, p. 156) B-25 2.2.3.3 Self Imposed Actions Self-imposed actions include temperature control within the building, mode of equipment operation, and operational hours of the building. Savings from reducing lighting loads, operating hours, increasing temperatures during cooling cycles and night setback of thermostats during unoccupied hours and weekends may reduce energy consumption by as much as 40 percent. Twenty percent has been selected as the average savings which can be realized by this method (National Petroleum Council, 1975, p. 53). similar energy conservation alternatives. Rand Corp., estimated similar savings from Potential savings in electricity and direct fossil fuel are shown as a percent of the total building energy use of each fuel (see Table 2.18). The single largest potential savings could be in reducing lighting use (see Table 2.19). Table 2.18 Building Use and Operation Conservation Measures Conservation Measure Net New Construction Energy Conservation Potential (Percent) Fossil Proxy for Maximum Sector Response Electricity Fuel 33 Retrofit Potential (Percent of New) (19) 100 4 32 100 An average of 5 to 12 percent savings estimated by the FPC "Guidelines for Energy Conservation for Immediate Implementation," January 1974 8 8 100 Operation Schedule (including Automated Control) A 10 percent reduction in equipment "on time" 3 1 100 Reduced ventilation (and infiltration) A 50 percent reduction in both new and old buildings 8 100 Reduce decorative and outdoor lighting A 1 percent sector energy reduction rIJ 100 Lighting reduction A 50 percent reduction in sector lighting energy from an assumed base of 10.4 kwh/sg ft (2.7W/sg ft on 44 percent schedule to 2.0 W/sg ft on 30 percent schedule) Internal temperature control A 6 degree increase in cooling thermostat setting and a 6 degree decrease in heating thermostat setting Equipment maintenance and feedback control 2 I - negligible demand because heat contribution from lighting is ( ) - increase in energy reduced (from Salter, et al., 1976, p. 40) B-26 Table 2.19 POSSIBLE ENERGY CONSERVATION MEASURES Life-Cycle Cost Savings (Percent) First Cost Savings (Percent) 34 38 30 34 36 29 27 27 28 19 23 20 22 6 29 -2 13 -9 51 53 51 49 38 43 43 17 12 Energy Savings (Percent) Measure Reduce the light level from full to half for the Reheat system Absorption system Electic system With full light, substitute the economy system for the Reheat system Absorption system Electric system With half light and the economy system for the 1 Reheat system Absorption system Electric system I UIill 2.2.3.4 a I c , t W., mLoV, 1 I - Conservation Targets In the report, Residual Oil Shortfall and Electricity Conservation in New England, an extensive survey of commercial sector industries and associations was completed in order to identify conservation targets (Harbridge House, Inc., 1974, pp. III-33 to III-37). Representatives of different commercial activities acquainted with electricity conservation were contacted and asked to identify percentage savings that could be attained without undue dislocation. summarized these interviews. Table 2.20 Although this list is not exhaustive (some sources provided unsatisfactory responses or refused to give information), it does include a broad range of commercial activities, the target savings associated with these activities, and the measures necessary to obtaining these savings. Notably, lighting and climate control tended to be the universally recommended methods for electricity conservation within the commercial sector. Table 2.21 summarized the commercial sector electricity targets. In addition, the Harbridge House report evaluated the four-day work week and change in school and retail store operating schedules. The calculated average monthly net savings from a four day work week program, 250 million KWh, are outweighed by an annual loss in personal income of about 6.3 billion dollars, a cut in production of almost 20%, and ultimately, perhaps some plant closures. Similarly, energy savings accruing from restricting school hours would be offset by alternative activities pursued during closings, for example, incremental lighting, cooking, television and so forth. B-27 Table 2.20 ELECTRICITY SAVINGS IN THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR Percentage Savings Savings Sources OFFICE BUILDINGS Recircuit lighting systems Minimize lighting at night Lower heat thermostat Minimize lighting during day Raise air conditioner thermostat Add screening and shading to reduce heat loss Daytime cleaning 15-20 American Consulting Engineering Council 20 American Institute of Architects 20 Hotel Sales Management Association American Hotel Trade Association Executives HOTELS/LODGINGS Turn off excess lighting Regulate heat and air conditioning Eliminate vibrating beds Eliminate sunlamps Reduce heat in banquet halls Eliminate spotlighting American Hotel and Motel Association RETAIL AND PERSONAL SERVICES Supermarkets Reduce lighting Cover refrigerating unit at night-20% savings Reduce heat Install heat recovery systems Reduce use of power tools 20 15 National Association of Food Chains Star Market, Office of Energy Coordinator Shopping Centers Reduce mall (open or enclosed) lighting-20-23% Reduce parking lot lighting-15% Reduce store interior lighting-20% Reduce display window lighting-20% Lower heat thermostat-9% 20-33 International Council of Shopping Centers Laundromats/Dry Cleaners Reduce lighting Reduce water temperature from 1400 to 1200 Improve insulation Use fluorescent instead of incandescent lighting 10 International Fabric Care Institute RECREATIONAL FACILITIES Amusement Parks Lower wattage on lights Lower or eliminate air conditioning Use timers on advertising signs 20-25 International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions Ice Skating Rinks Lower room temperature at indoor rinks Reduce lighting-use it only at night 20 Ice Skating Institute of America 5 Roller Skating Rink Operators of America Roller Skating Rinks Minimal use of electricity Table 2.20 continued on next page B-28 Table 2.20 (continued) Percentage Savings Sources Mbvie Theaters Turn on outdoor marquee after dark Eliminate matinees Use fluorescent lighting Limit indoor lighting Minimize lighting for cleaning 20 National Association of Theater Owners 20-25 National Club Association 5-20 Federal Power Commission, Office of Chief Engineer 5-10 International Grocers Association 5-10 American Association of School Administrators 10 Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Department of Occupational Education 0-5 American Library Association 7-8 U.S. General Services Administration 5-10 National Parking Association Country Clubs Eliminate electric golf carts Minimize outdoor lighting Wholesale/Warehousing Eliminate cross-ventilation inside warehouses Reduce lighting Public Schools Reduce lighting in classrooms Turn off lights in unused or little-used areas Reduce security lighting Lower water temperature in gymnasium showers Raise air conditioning thermostats Libraries Lower heat thermostat Reduce lighting Government Buildings (see Office Buildings Parking Garages Remove nonessential lighting Cut back entrance lighting Eliminate space heating Minimize lighting of outdoor advertising signs (from Harbridge House, Inc., 1974, pp. I-33 to III-37) B-29 Table 2.21 SUMMARY OF COMMERCIAL SECTOR ELECTRICITY-SAVING TARGETS Targets (as percents) Sector Office Buildings 15-20 Hotels/Lodgings 20 Retail and Personal Services 15-20 Public Schools and Libraries 5-10 Private Schools and Universities 15-20 Other 10 (from Harbridge House, Inc., 1974, p. III-38) Restricting retail hours is a conservation measure similar to the previous one. Institu- tion of this conservation alternative was found to save about 1.3 million kilowatt-hours per hour of closing. 1975). Table 2.22 exhibits the costs and benefits of such a program (Harbridge House, Inc., The retail cutback option appears to be a reasonable and manageable solution from a technical point of view. In light of current efforts to institute 12 hours per day, 7 days per week, hours for all types of retail stores, it is unlikely that it would be accepted by the buying public and the merchants. Table 2.22 ESTIMATED SAVINGS FROM RESTRICTING RETAIL HOURS New England Retail Sector Consumption: 6+ billion KWh's per year Employment : 730,000 Sales : $26 billion Savings per month (millions of KWH's) Est. Loss in Wages (millions of $) Est. Loss in Personal Income (millions of $) Open 2 Hours Later (Monday-Saturday) 67 60 120 No Tuesday Operation 57 40 80 10 Percent 33 25 50 20 Percent 66 60 120 30 Percent 99 100 200 Cut Hours (from Harbridge House, Inc., 1974, p. III-16) B-30 Table 2.23 summarizes the estimated potential savings that can be accrued from instituting selected energy conservation measures. The general consensus seems to indicate commercial structures could save approximately 20% of the energy used, half or more of which could be electricity savings. (For absolute numbers see Table 2.27). It is hypothesized that the Maine commercial sector could accrue savings in the same realm. Table 2.23 Summary of Estimated Potential Savings from Alternative Conservation Scenarios (percent) ASHRAE 90-75 Standard Harbridge House, Inc. Interagency Task Force on Energy Conserv. Salter et al Office Buildings 35.3 15-20 26.9 NA Retail Stores 33.0 15-20 35.4 NA School Buildings 27.3 10-15 28.0 NA Hospitals NA 10e 22.9 NA Other NA 10 27.0 NA ALL NA 25.1 45 NA: e: NA Not available Estimated (from Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1975; Harbridge House, Inc., 1974; Interagency Task Force on Energy Conservation, 1975; and Salter, et al., 1976 2.2.4 Conservation Potential in Maine The test of the value of any energy conservation measure instituted in the commercial sector is the extent to which it will curtail future energy consumption. The potential energy savings accruing to the Maine commercial businesses was determined based on estimates of commercial floor space and unit demands (BTU per square foot of floor space). Estimates of floor space inventories were based on statistics compiled by the F.W. Dodge Division of McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company and Brookhaven National Laboratory. Energy demands per unti area for each building type in New England found in the report (Lee, 1976) were used. The disaggregated electrical energy demands are essentially the product of these two. 2.2.5 Commercial Overview and Conclusions Since few historical and current regional data have been published on commercial floor space, the 1972 commercial inventory was developed by regionalizing an inventory of commercial floor space for New England developed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Lee, 1976). The office building inventory was regionalized by using total number of employees in finance, insurance, and real estate businesses. distribution. Regional distribution of retail inventory was based on the personal income School, hospital and miscellaneous commercial floor space inventory was distributed according to the size of the population. In projecting new construction 1985 projections were shared in the same fashion as previously noted, using earnings and personal income forecasts from OBERS projection (U,S. Water Resources Council, 1975) and Bureau of Census Series E population forecasts U.S. Bureau of Census, 1974). Forecasts of all hospitals, schools, and miscellaneous commercial office space were assumed to grow at national rates of 3.4% per year, 3.0% per year, and 3.6% per year, respectively Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1974). B-31 These projections exclude conversions from oil and gas to electric-based energy consumption of existing floor space. be all-electric. However, the figures assume that all new growth in floor space will (See Table 2.24). The unit demands (Btu/ft2) in the commercial sector (see Table 2.25) were originally derived for the Northeast in the Project Independence Task Force Report: Residential and Commercial Energy Use Patterns, 1970-]990 (Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1974), and subsequently disaggregated by using population weighted annual heating degree days (Lee, 1976). The values assume a specific building design and energy system characteristics (Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1974) and are probably best regarded as prototypical, not average, values. Projections based on these unit demands are uncertain because of the wide variation in energy consumption per square foot between similar buildings with comparable systems. In forecasting future demand, these figures are reduced to These reductions imply no major changes in technology or lifestyle. reflect conservation impacts. Between 1965 and 1975, New England electricity sales to commercial customers grew by 9.4% per year, from sales of 8.2 billion KWh to 20.0 billion KWh, while Maine sales to the customers grew 9.9% per year. From 1964 to 1974, Maine electricity commercial sales growth averaged 10.5% per year reflecting increased lighting level, exhibits, air-conditioning, and some penetration made by electric space heating. :Table2.24 COMMERCIALFLOOR SPACE IN MAINE (106 Square Feet) .1975 1985 Electric Based Building Type Total Electric Based Offices 10.5 3.2 18.5 11.2 Retail 18.0 5.5. 27.9 15.4 Schools 24.0 7.5 32.0 15.5 Hospitals 10.0 3.1 14.0 7.1 Other 25.0 7.7 36.0 18.7 87.8 27.0 128.4 67.9 Total Source: (A.D. Little, 1974) B-32 Total Table 2.25 NORTHEAST ELECTRICAL ENERGY REQUIREMENTS PER SQUARE FOOT OF COMMERCIAL SPACE Building Type Space Heating, Offices Air Conditioning_ Lighting & .... _ _Miscel1 aneous 165 9.6 31.6 Retai1 92 10.8 34.0 Schools 146 8.5 27.2 Hospitals 176 12.0 71.3 92 10.8 31.6 Other (from Lee, 1976, p.26) The slower sales growth (4.1% per year) between 1972 and 1975 are reflective of the Mideast oil embargo and the self-imposed energy conservation measures which reduced commercial energy consumption. (See Table 2.26.) Table 2.27 summarizes 1985 electrical energy consumption by the commercial sector in Maine. Total 1985 electrical energy consumed by the commercial sector will be 11.6 trillion Btu's without any conservation measures. However, if energy conservation measures discussed are imposed, electricity savings will approach 10% for new construction and as much as 28% if existing structures are retrofitted in addition to new construction standards. Thus savings accruing from institution of conservation measures in the commercial sector of Maine could be as much as 3.3 trillion Btu's (see Table 2.28). Table 2.26 COMMERCIAL ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NEW ENGLANDAND MAINE (millions kilowatt hours) Energv Consumption Energv Consumtion Year New Maine Year New England Mai ne England 1963 7116 440 1970 14643 970 1964 7610 472 1971 16103 1081 1965 8191 526 1972 17710 1200 1966 8984 587 1973 19424 1284 1967 9876 724 1974 18904 1287 1968 12155 788 1975 20043 1354 1969 13146 866 (from Electric Council of New England, 1976) B-33 I E. c- <1<, ; -J) CD C4 c~r- Ec' < 0 cn 'P o> U n o o i-~~~~o 1-0.~~~~r LO O0 0 :z~~~ci =C /IM 4~~~t c M .-E( ac M _ ) - D 0 =~~~~~~~~~~~~~ . NZ=:Zu - ¢ t--. G- s~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~f _ cc dC C/ s ~~~~ 44% C- _0 :O :~~~~~ C/3 0) .0 OLLJ~~~~~ 'a - 1. - i-,C UC- T o z o C CTa 'a U wv (i3. 1 J LA ' - I'D co a_ ~3 n N %D M" r _~. ,_ 0-. LO )a c:~.-~ ~ ~-c,~ ~ - O4- C ~ ¢0 0 o ,~-,-CO ." -0M ~ ~ ~ ~~ , c D '.~ .M C) o C C~j u CD -4O C\J C'Q £ I o .. co 0'~~~L 0 3) Q L)7.Cr) c m 'o 'o t C/ n0 4*_>c O CIJ ~.' LA M '-o CO cc L CD Cul r- 0 Ln N- > > N. nJ (D 01au a J- r 0' ) 0)s > 'M 4 X SIT (a 20 k'0 0~ ko : .0 LA (: LO- o '.3 0 ke", 0~~'. 1-. 0) CV) __ CO L."3 M C/sj U U·0 B-34 ~V1 0~1 .0 > ~ 4D'--- ,~2.; 2 .0f. 4 S$ -c: *0 - 0 # S..) 4T a 4 4 tUj ' O U (AOS Ž1.. S- LO I) _m 4- US0),> S- LC ) Uc - > >~~~~~ e t r 0'0 o >. a 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~( 'P '.-. 00)0 'P t C,0 US co',-' Lo .=o o r'~~ ,u000 a t333 000 , C,CClO o C) C- 00O o _ ,- x -o C-- ., u.I~~~~I .,..I LLJ~~~~L I.U~~~~ .. C ,, 0 ILU c" ~l_(..>r r_) GO Co ~~~~~~~~_ A_ LA __ - 4- 'O 0 03 0'3 - Le ~~~~~~or ._ M .- . I---J ()C)Li O LA a= CDc ._ 31 ray I.LD~ -- C *, O0 C/) · l M- ' 0< 0,w - E 0 lao 4 4)04 toM Lu "LJ LU I-~ ,--- 4-V _:c C Table 2.28 ESTIMATED 1985 SAVINGS FROM ALTERNATIVE CONSERVATION SCENARIOS IN MAINE (109 Btu) Building Type Imi pl ement ASI-RAE 90 Apply Harbridge House Targets Implement ADL Conservation Measures Implement Salter Conservation Measures Offices 580 245 621 NA Retail 445 202 746 NA Schools 397 147 789 NA Hospitals NA 1306 422 NA Other NA 148 679 NA NA 848 3257 3137 TOTAL NA: Not available B-35 2.3 Industrial Sector 2.3.1 Introduction "In 1971 the manufacturing sector consumed 16.1 quadrillion Btu or roughly 27.9% of total U.S. energy requirements. The distribution of energy consumption within the manufacturing sector is heavily weighted for the primary products industry: 1, food; 2, paper; 3, chemical; 4, petroleum; 5, stone, clay and glass; and 6, primary metals. The six industries accounted for over 83% of the energy consumed within the manufacturing sector in 1971 or 23.2% of total U.S. requirements." (From Federal Energy Administration, 1974, pp. 1,2) The industrial sector in the United States consumes roughly 42% of all electrical energy generated in the U.S. Of this, 42% (the six most energy-intensive manufacturing industries) consume 66% (28% of the total electrical energy consumed in the United States -- see Table 2.29). Most attention on energy conservation both of fuels and of electricity has focused on these six energy-intensive manufacturing industries. Per dollar of value added the energy-intensive industries, excluding food processing, account for 173 MBtu's as compared with only .016 MBtu's per value added for other industries. Five industries alone account for roughly 14¢ of energy for every dollar of value added in the Industrial sectors. energy of all other industries combined. In addition, they consume twice the electrical (From Federal Energy Administration, 1974). Electrical generation in the United States for industrial purposes has undergone a dramatic change since the mid-1950's. In 1954 only 75% of the total energy used by industries in the United States was purchased from power companies and 15% was selfgenerated either from on-site turbines or from on-site use of waste materials for electric power generation. Between 1954 and 1971 the proportion of on-site generated decreased by 25% to less than 14%. Estimates by the Edison Electric Institute have indicated that this proportion is likely to drop to 9% by the turn of the century. 2.3,2 Energy Consumption Tables 2.30 and 2.31 show both the total energy consumption per dollar of value added for the six major energy-consuming sectors and the consumption of electrical energy kilowatt hours per dollar of value added (KWh/$V.A.). As will be discussed in greater detail in the analysis of conservation potential for manufacturing in Maine, the projected levels of savings for fossil fuels is relatively high while for electrical consumption is much less. 2.3,3 Conservation Activities In general, within the industrial sector, electrical energy consumption is the smaller of the total energy requirements when compared with fossil fuel consumption. As a result, much of the attention of the Federal Government, as well as industrial groups, has focused on the conservation of fossil energy rather than upon the conservation of electrical energy. With this is mind, therefore, major conservation activities for electrical energy may be listed as the following: 1. A reversal of the trend away from on-site electric power generation on the part of large-scale industrial establishments. a) Two-thirds of the heat generated in an electric power plant has to be dissipated into the air or water (lakes, rivers, ocean). transported for more than a few miles. ing processes. This heat cannot be economically Many industries use heat in their manufactur- On-site electrical generation would permit use of a portion of the B-36 ______ Table 2.29 Distribution of Energy Consumption within the Manufacturing Sector: 1971 Purchased Fuels Purchased Fuels and Electricity Six Energy Intensive Manufacturing Industries BTU % BTU % (1) Food and Kindred Products 809 5.6 920 5.7 (2) Paper & Allied Products 1196 8.3 1315 8.2 (3) Chemicals & Allied Products 2443 17.0 2783 17.3 (4) Petroleum & Coal Products 2377 20.0 2956 18.4 (5) Store, Clay & Glass Products 1291 9.0 1367 8.5 (6) Primary Metals Industries 3613 25.2 4030 25.1 12220 85.1 13371 83.2 Other Manufacturing 2109 14.7 2714 16.9 Total Manufacturing 14329 Total of Six 99.811 _/ Failure to sum to 100% due to rounding error. (from Federal Energy Administration, 1974, p. 3) B-37 16085 100.1/ Table 2.30 NET ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER DOLLAR OF VALUE ADDED 1954 - 1990 (MBTU/S Value Added) 1954 All Manufacturing Six High Energy Consuming Industries 70.29 161.65 1958 1962 1967 1971 1975 1977 1980 1985 1990 69.79 65.10 56.36 52.86 48.70 46.67 43.94 42.18 38.29 156.02 147.65 132.23 128.04 118.71 114.91 107.49 101.30 93.3Z Food & Kindred Products 47.46 31.98 27.68 26.96 26.29 26.31 26.47 Paper & Allied Products 126.07 133.67 124.53 118.49 115.80 98.61 97.20 94.31 88.43 81.15 Chemicals & Allied Products 160.44 144.60 124.78 110.32 93.20 92.70 84.02 80.53 72.76 Petroleum & Coal Prod. 552.04 544.47 521.62 471.59 451.00 397.36 389.48 373.55 373.79 370.57 Stone, Clay & Glass Products 176.41 16J.44 152.16 147.49 146.60 132.22 124.35 119.55 111.12 105.90 Primary Metals Industries 224.98 245.10 236.47 204.20 212.66 195.70 187.90 177.90 165.90 154.50 Total All Other 16.73 38.96 15.79 35.78 28.81 16.104 14.10 (from Federal Energy Administration, 1974, p. 26) B-38 95.70 13.60 13.60 13.601 13.60 13.60 13.60 Table 2.31 ELECTRICAL ENERGY PER DOLLAR OF VALUE ADDED KWh/$ Value Added 1967-1990 1967 1971 1977 1980 1985 1990 .91 1.22 .92 .89 .91 .91 Paper 2.64 3.07 3.79 3.90 3.82 3.78 Chemicals 4.08 3.43 3.46 3.28 3.37 3.19 Petroleum 2.92 3.53 3.07 3.01 3.12 3.32 Stone, etc 2.36 2.4 2.57 2.70 2.64 2.48 Metals 5.48 5.86 6.12 6.24 6.24 6.3 SIX TOTAL Food Primary 3.1 3.31 3.26 3.24 3.76 3.22 Other .8 .88 .88 .88 .88 .88 TOTAL 1.62 1.65 1.64 1.82 1.61 Source: 1.7 Calculated from (FEA/PI) B-39 reject heat. If, at the factory, the required heat was normally generated by burning fuel (coal, oil, gas) the savings would be fuel savings. If the required heat were made with electricity, the result would be conservation of fuel and generated electricity. b) "Co-generation," the term that refers to the generation of electricity and use of the normally rejected heat, may not involve maximum generation of electricity per unit of fuel (for technical reasons) but the overall conversion of energy in the primary fuel to useful purposes can be increased by about 100% (from 33 to 66% conversion efficiency of the energy in the fuel). 2. A significant aspect of the operation of any industry under a situation of inexpensive energy prices is a general attitude which allows equipment to continue to run when operators are not present, to have lighting in excess of requirements for the job and in periods when lighting is not required. to Save Energy". The paper industry has distributed a publication, "21 Ways (American Paper Institute, 1973). This pamphlet suggests a number of means for energy conservation, only two of which apply to decrease in electrical consumption. These are: lighting. curtailment of lighting loads and use of photocells for control of exterior In addition to the 21 suggestions, FEA has added seven additional conservation measures, none of which apply to the conservation of electrical energy by large-scale manufacturing concerns, (from Federal Energy Administration, pp. 5-17). The IEEE Spectrum, in June of 1974, listed 54 potential savings to heating and cooling, none of which directly affected electrical consumption and then listed 22 items which would reduce the lighting load in 42 process-related and transport industries -- only 8 of which pertain to electrical conservation, and those were primarily in the area of "good housekeeping." (From IEEE Spectrum, 1977, pp. 68-69) 3. The paper industry is a major industry in Maine. For that reason we have discussed, in much greater detail, the conservation opportunities in that industry. See also Technical Note A to this paper. As a general summary, it has to be stated that there is limited experience with capturing largescale energy savings in the consumption of electricity in the industrial sector. Experience, sufficient in depth and scope to enable one to offer suggestions as to conservation of electricity without detailed first-hand knowledge of each manufacturing plant, is lacking. Equipment, processes (many of which are company secrets), etc., differ from building to building within a plant and from plant to plant of a single company. Savings can be obtained but only by "in-house" knowledgeable personnel. 2.3.4 Energy Conservation Projections for the Industrial Sector in Maine 2.3.4.1 Introduction The 1973 ADL Study (ADL 1975) of New England energy consumption which has been used in this analysis as a base showed little if any decrease in electrical energy consumption per dollar of shipments from 1977 to 1985 (see Tables 2.32 and 2.33 for a complete listing of energy consumption coefficients). The ADL study, Raskin (NEEMIS) investigations, Central Maine Power Production reports and the study of FEA/Project Independence (FEA/PI) are the principal sources for analysis of electrical energy savings potential in the industrial sector in Maine. B-40 ) Cr- O co zO t- N - - co - co C ) C) cO Cn n- N cN CO 'O -o CO COLO N CD r) C- O C\ C O Co O IN CM 4 .n o -n C N N oC N- Co . Co CO )D ml- o c ,.- .C cn C ¢) CO %zi- Mo CM- CO cN CO r-. 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O) (0 C) C) _ ~0 0-' o ,- O INrt c ,C) O C) C f- CD C) CO co r"" (0 CN -) ( ,- - N 00 C(N 0 - -C,- ( r- (0 ) C(J (0 C) OD LO ' -, 0s 0;i Cn C,o (I r- C CM C) LO (N C) co -('J r Ia2 c' O C)-.f GO :(O -O' ,- r- ., r. O~ ) r'--' C',d I'~ - N dIc(J Cn co C) c o" (, ,' ~(VC ) , C r- 'IC CO 't C) L0 - C) - C~ -.- CJ Cd (N CY) ,r- oh 0 Ln C) (N-0 "*n CY) LO - - - (NJ j C ',, N CL 00 C) n CD r- o m O m r- 4, Ln c4r- JJ I C)Oj cc C -U C) , v- 1h' -- L*.- I - ) O (0 Ln cr 4) *rn _ U- LI <C . ) LI- n a,-r 3, - C) S) M E:3 Vo 4c- - 0 -°4 -'-- E -C) J -C)-,-Co O (NJ : CC O S. ,- -rE23 a) S-i 2 CA , C 4-) 2 0z C)J la 2: , J - ,- B-44 U *- N,-c) L ) w 2 CJC -I-wC)*U - 2,- CC) Li FI LL ;4 *,- c) - C )-_ _ _- .-j ,- L LL w c O N- a .3 m ' 0 LU i-.-- C2 4- o S. '4- Table 2.33 Maine Manufacturing Sectors KWh Consumption per $ Value of Shipments SIC Title of Sector 1974 1980 1985 20* 22 23 .28 Food and Kindred Products Textile Mill Products .74 Apparel and Other Textile .26 Products Lumber and Wood Products .65 Furniture and Fixtures .60 Paper and Allied Products 2.03 1.52 Printing and Publishing Chemicals and Allied Products 1.72 Petroleum and Coal Products 0 Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products .35 Leather and Leather .32 Products Stone, Clay, and Glass 2.92 Products .23 Primary Metal Industries Fabricated Metal Products 2.44 Machinery, Except .12 Electrical Electric and Electronic Equipment 1.70 .50 Transportation Equipment Instruments and Related 0 Produ cts Miscellaneous Manufacturinc Industries and Ornance .27 and Accessories .28 .81 .28 .81 .26 .67 .57 2.03 1.60 .26 .67 .37 2.03 1 .60 1.72 1.72 0 0 24 25 26* 27 28* 29* 30 31 32* 33* 34 35 36 37 38 39 .35 .35 .38 .38 2.92 .26 2.44 2.92 .27 2.55 .12 .12 1.70 .55 1.70 .57 0 0 * Major energy-consuming sectors (from Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1975) (Contains no inflation factor (constant 1974 dollars) B-45 .27 .27 Table 2.34 Six Major Manufacturing Energy Users 1967 9) Comparison of Value Added to Value of Shipments ($xlO SIC Value of 2 Shipments Value Addedl 20 26 28 29 32 33 26.62 9.76 23.55 5.42 8.33 19.98 VA/VS .28 93.77 17.82 '3.32 26.99 15.16 23.10 .55 .91 .20 .55 .87 1 Source: FEA/!PI 2 Commerce, 1-0, 1974 Table 2.35 Maine Mfgr Electrical Energy Coefficients Compared to the National Average SIC 20 26 28 29 32 33 KWh/$ Value of Shipments 1980 19772 2 19741 1 U.S. Maine U.S. Maine .28 2,03 1.72 2.92 .23* .26 2.03 3.15 .61 1.41 5.32 .28 2,03 1 72 2.92 .26* .25 2.15 2.99 .6 1.49 5.43 1985 Maine 1 .28 2.03 1.72 2.92 .27* U.S .26 2.10 3.09 .62 1.65 5.48 *?ote: given other sources such as Central Maine Power, this coefficient appears low. A more reasonable estimate for Maine appears to be 1.3 to 1.5 1 2 from Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1975 iote: Relationship of value added by sector to value of shipments per sector as seen in Table 2.15 for 1967 have been assumed constant over time. B-46 In an effort to reconcile the coefficients derived in each of those studies it was necessary to benchmark the relationship between value added and value of shipments for the major energy-consuming sectors. The results of this effort are shown in Table 2.34. Assuming a constant relationship between Value added and Value of Shipments over time (1977 to 1985) allows for the conversion of U.S. electrical energy coefficients, measured in KJh/$Value Added to 'Lh/$Value of Shipments. Table 2.35 shows the results of this conversion when compared to the ADL projections for Maine. 2.3.4.2 Electrical Energy Coefficients, Maine/USA Comparison of the electrical energy coefficients for Maine and for the U.S. demonstrate a number of points concerning electrical energy consumption for the state. In SIC 20, Food and kindred products, the similarity of the two sets of coefficients reinforce the initial hypothesis that despite the heterogeneity of the sector, the fact that food processing occurs relatively evenly, guarantees a similarity in coefficients across the United States. In SIC 26, Paper and Allied Products, shows a nearly identical pattern to that for the United States. SIC 28, Chemicals represents a sector for which there appears no consistent data set for 1974. Raskin reports no consumption while ADL shows 429 x 106 KWh. 38.1 x 106 KWh. Central Maine Power reports The analyses which follow assume a value for Maine as a whole double that supplied by CMP. This gives a KWh/$Value of Shipments coefficient in tables 2.33 and 2.35 of 1.72, less than that for the U. S. Given the extreme heterogeneity of this sector, this appears a good assumption. SIC 32, Stone, Clay and Glass is again a highly heterogeneous sector whose energy requirements vary widely within the sector. Maine required more electrical energy than the average for the United States in SIC 32. SIC 33, Primary Metals appears as an error in the ADL study. The coefficients reported are considerably lower for Maine than for the United States as a whole. In addition, utilizing figures provided for sales to this sector by Central Maine Power, it would appear that a more likely coefficient would be less than that of the United States but on the order of 1.3 to 1.5 KWH/$Value of Shipments. Given the apparently small projected change in electrical energy consumption in manufacturing, and the divergence of Maine consumption coefficients from those of the United States as a whole, the following scenario was developed to analyze the potential energy conservation savings in electrical consumption in 1980 and 1985/6 in Maine. SIC 20: Electrical energy consumption/$Value of Shipments would be reduced to that of the United States. SIC 28: Electrical energy consumption/$Value of Shipments in Maine would be reduced by the same proportion as was projected in the FEA/PI study for the United States, i.e., down 5% from 1974 in 1980 and down 3% from 1974 in 1985. SIC 26: Maintain the electrical energy consumption coefficients at the level projected in the ADL study, i.e., do not allow for increased levels of purchased electrical energy at the expense of self-generated energy. SIC 32: Maintain a constant level of consumption per unit of shipments, i.e., do not show an increase as is indicated in the total U.S. figures. SIC 33: Hold constant at the 1974 value as calculated in the ADL study, i.e., do not allow to increase as projected by both ADL and FEA/PI. Other sectors: Hold constant as in the ADL study. B-47 Table 2.36 INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1974, 1985 By SIC (KWh x 106) 1974 1974 1980 2 ADL Corrected 1985 ADL Corrected 1985 SIC State of Maine * 20 124.3 216.o2 105.7 199. 216.5 162.7 22 138.8 164.8 107.9 194.8 172.2 166.1 23 14.7 11.9 L4 129.9 141.3 2i 9.1 7.4 b CMP 19.5 a 21.6 90.8 22. CMP 30.0 204.4 218.2 139.8 12.6 8.3 16.6 2054.5 1217.5 10.da * 26 72.8 1546.0 790.9 1833.0 Z7 78.4 11.j 2.1 134.6 148 .8 100.3 118.9 58.7 * 28 b 428.7 _ c 38.1a 5.2a * Z9 3.2 8.0 30 34.3 63.8 31.9 63. 84.0 49.1 31 135.5 93.4 69.6 137.1 18.1 106 .4 * 32 77 74.5 65.3 107.8 105.1 100.5 * 33 11.5 29.3 39.7 20.8 34 128.4 36.0 13.5 a 53.7 a 191.1 106.2 82.7 35 7.4 38.1 5.4 13.9 16.7 8.3 63.7 55.6 164. 200.1 J.6 41.4a 66 68.2 63.7 2.8 4.6 3860.2 2325.3 3U ,5. 37 411.9 33 39 TOTAL 6.1 2.9 149;. 7 2431. 3 3.0 3J31. 36 J1 -I ,10.5 * Six iajor energy c,)s,.lers in .S. - 85' of total U.S. energy consumption. a. ;ioconsumption reriorted by Annual Sirvey of Manufacturers, 1974 or Discrepancy in igures - see Raskin b. Probable Error; in (A.D. Little, 1975) c. Assumed value for calculation of Table 2.33 and 2.35 was double value of CMP or 76.2 x 106 K'in Notes: 1. Calculated from A.D. Little, Inc., 1975 N.B.Discrepancy for sector 26, Paper and Allied Products, and for Chemicals and Allied Products. Note that if one adds Paper and subtracts Chemicals, i.e, 1495.7 + (1546-72.8)-428.7=2540.2 or roughly the Raskin (Note 2) figure. Source: 2. Raskin, Susan K., "Manufacturing Industries Energy Requirements in New England and the 1United States". MIT-NEEMIS-77-008TR, April, 1977, as adapted from U.S. Bureau of Census, Annual Survey of Manufacturers, 1974 (GPO) 3. Central Maine Power, Uniform Statistical Report Year Ended Dec. 31, 1974, page E-15. 4. Assumed 4%/annum compound growth Power (1974 to 1985). Allocation to sectors CMP production -- (Weak assumption but given sources such as Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1975 B-48 rate as given by Central Maine completed in proportion to 1974 unreliability of other projected this appears only option). Table 2.37 Maine Electrical Enerqy Conservation Scenario 1980 ADL 1 199 1833. 100.3 20 26 28 - 29 Conserv 2 175 1833. 100.3 - 107.8 29.3 107,8 25.9 TOTAL OF SIX 2269.4 2241.4 Other 1261.6 1261.6 3531.0 3503.6 32 33 - ADL 1985 Conserv 216.5 2054.5 118.9 201 2054.5 118.9 15.5 0 0 0 3.4 105.1 39.7 105.1 33.8 0 5.9 27.4 2534.7 2513.3 21.4 1325.6 1325.6 0 3860.2 3838.9 (1%) 24 0 0 0 (1%) from corrected ADL 1980, 1985 Table 2.36 Source: 2 Conservation Scenario summarized: a. Food (SIC 20): will be reduced equal to FEA/P.I. averager protection for U.S. (see Table b. Paper (SIC 26): Maintain Maine projected level c. Chemicals (SIC 28): maintain at Maine level d. Stone (SIC 32): Hold constant - no increase as would be indicated by U.S. figures. e. Primary Metals (SIC 33): Hold at ADL projected 1974 level. f. Other Sectors assumed ADL projections of consumption coefficients. B-49 2.3.4.3 Impact of Electrical Energy Conservation The above scenario was then used to project the impact of electrical energy conservation in the industrial sector to 1980 and 1985 as compared with the Base Case (ADL) and Central Maine Power, Table 2.36. Table 2.37 presents the results of the projection of electrical energy conservation in the industrial sector in Maine for 1980 and 1985. As can be seen using the above scenario, the impact of electrical energy conservation in the six largest energy-consuming industries is minimal though one might anticipate a range about the values shown in Table II which would take into account conservation efforts in the other industrial sectors. It should be pointed out, however, that the focus of the federal energy conservation plans in the industrial sector has centered strongly on primary fuels and not upon electricity. In addition, given the level of primary fuels consumption, the use and purchase of electricity in the industrial sector represents a relatively small segment of the total. Few of the energy conservation policies put forth at present focus attention on electrical energy conservation in manufacturing. 2.3.5 Government Program The U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Department of Energy have initiated, and are funding, programs to accelerate energy conservation in industry. materials handling and substitution circulated through conventional they may transmit energy are beiny invesiydtea channels and, in addition, Processes, equipment and ana improved. Information is the trade organizations are funded so conservation information as directly as possible to the members whom they represent. Progress is monitored under the Voluntary Industrial Program which entered a new phase with the enactment by Congress of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA). Under the U.S. Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) guidelines, major energy-consuming firms, in industries for which efficiency improvement targets have been set by the DOE (FEA), are required to report on their energy efficiency and conservation goals (Ref. 32). for These targets, ercentage improvements in energy efficiency by 1980 are listed in Table 2.38. TABLE 2.38 SIC No. Industry Chemicals and Allied Products Primary Metal Industries Petroleum and Coal Products Stone, Clay and Glass Products Paper and Allied Products Food and Kindred Products Fabricated Metal Products Transportation Equipment Machinery, Except Electrical Textile Mill Products Source: 28 33 29 32 26 20 34 37 35 22 1980 Net Target 14% 9 12 16 20 12 24 16 15 22 U.S. Department of Energy, 1977 The progress as of December 1976 towards the 1980 goals as illustrated in Fig. 2.3 and listed in Table 2.39. B-50 Progress Towards 1980 EPCA Goals Perceni t J"%^' 3U Target EN Progress 25 24 22 20 20 15 16 16 II 15 _ \ I 14 12 12.25 12 16.8 12.2 10 N. _ 9.1 / 9.3 9 7.'@ 7.3 5 n v 3.75 3.8 K - SIC . 28 K 33 V - - -- K . l-l 29 32 |- 26 Figure 2.3 Source: 11.2 \,,, 11.4 U.S. Department of Energy, 1977 B-51 N -. \ .- .. 20 34 - -- 37 --- - 35 22 TABLE 2.39 Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvements as of Dec. 1976 SIC Code Percentage of Enerqv Efficiency Improvement Industry 28 Chemicals and Allied Products ...... 9.1 33 Primary Metal Industries ........... 3.8 29 Petroleum and Coal Products ........ 12.2 32 Stone, Clay and Glass Products ..... 7.3 26 Paper and Allied Products .......... 9.3 20 Food and Kindred Products .......... 11.4 34 Fabricated Metal Products .......... 3.75 37 Transportation Equipment ........... 12.25 35 Machinery, Except Electrical ....... 16.8 22 Textile Mill Products .............. 11.2 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, 1977 B-52 An analysis of the Paper and Allied Products Industry performance is illustrated in Fig. 2.4 and 2.5. The data indicate that while overall btu/ton of product decreased, the energy mix has also altered. Natural gas use has decreased in the proportion contributed by it, but purchased electricity (and oil and coal) have increased their proportions. Percent r DU r-- II 1972 :...1976 40 43.3 .''. '.'...: .'. ........... J............. 38.2,,,,,, ..... :... . . __ 36.3 ' ''' ' . .' *."''' #' """. '''o .:'" -& -%;t'' ,:1 :,' .,. ,. . ' .: ''.,'. . '..'......'.· "''.:''.''' ' ..·'..·....· ........ ' o· :.'' ''.`'-'--'--2* ........ · .· .· . .· .· . .. ..........` ..... .. .. .. .... . . ..... ... ..... .......... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . · . . ·. · . . . . 30 __ ''';"'· ' ' 0'........ ''''''''''''''''''''" '·.·'~~~~~':::..·... . . ..... ;:·:·:·. .·.·:·:. . .. 20 . .. . .. .. ,'' *'s* _ .. 18.4 h£'''Lw ..-''-''-" ......... r.. .,.,. , .......,....--..- . ... i.iiii / ~4 iii.iiiiiiii ......... ::::':'·.: i':' . .:::::::: ".:: :":.: ::::::::::: :',-':,'.'::¥-.': .:.:.:.:.:.:..- ............. .,... .. ..... ''......'..'.' . :.::: :.:::.. ... '...,'..... ......... .'..','..:"-.'.' 28. ... ..... .... -.·.· ·.. .. ...................· . .::., ....' ..'. ... : ,:' ..*....... ~'' ... .... , ::. r::::::::::::.:::::::: ...- ...:-:...:.. .-.' . . . . . . '. '. '. . '. . . . ..-. . . . . . .. = 'Xq ;:!.!.i!: F:::: . .:.:::. ..: ·,-.,::. : ... : ... ......... :·. · · ·- ·. . .·-. . . . . .. . 9.6 10 F. . ...... .X. X. . . .. . . . ... .. . . . . 4 ... i? 11:: i:::~:1 · -%:i~i~i~i~i i 'i::iiii :::::::::;.:.':: .:!:!:. . iii.i :: .... ::::ii:.::::: .. . .:.:.:.:::::::::::: .... . ... .. ... . .. j: 1"'''' .........:.. .:.:.::.:..:.. .,.,. '''""'"'" .. .. . . . . ... ... .. .. . . . . . . . . · I. . . ... . . .. .. . .. ... . . . . . I:. ·. . ·. ·. . ·. ·. ·. . ·. ·.. . . . . . . . . . . .~ . . . .. . .I . ::.:::.::: .,,.,.:-:- ··.. ~~" . . .. . ::: :::::::: .. Fuel Oil Coal Figure 2.4 Paper Industry Status Source: ::::::: .. ........... . .. . . . l.............. · · i. .. Purchased Electricity . . U. S. Department of Energy, 1977 B-53 . Natural Gas Energy Efficiency Table* Production 1972 (106 tons) 54.231 Btu's (1015 Fossil Fuels & Purchased Electricity) Ratio 1976 56.806 1.0313 (106 Btu's/ton) 19.017 0.9801 17.253 Percent Improvemznt Over Base Year Base Year 9.3 Recent Energy Trends Energy obtained from waste products such as hogged fuel and bark increased from an estimated 1i.6 percent of total energy consumed in 1972 to 44.9 percent affe-cted the industry's energy efficiency, for example: Capacity utilization was 94.2 percent during in 1972 and 90.2 percent 1976. in 1976. Other factors This decreased the potential energy efficiency by an estimated 2.3 percent. Environmental control energy requirements were determined by a National Council for Air and Stream Improvement (NCASI) survey taken in 1976. These figures indicated a decrease in energy efficiency due to these controls of 0.8 percent. Energy Fuel Purchased Electricity Purchased Steam Coal Residual Fuel Oil Distillate Fuel Oil LPG Natural Gas Use 1972 1976 % % 7.3 1.7 17.4 36.6 1.6 0.2 36.3 9.6 1.6 18.4 41.8 1.5 0.1 28.4 (1.1) 100.0 (1.6) 100.0 Other Purchased 0.2 Energy Sold Total Background Information The American Paper Institute's (API) energy reporting system receives monthly reports from 365 pulp, paper and paperboard mills operated by 111 companies around the nation. In 1976 these mills accounted for 85 percent of U.S. paper, paperboard and dried pulp production. * The energy data reflects only that reported and is not adjusted to represent all industry production as in previous reports. Figure 2.5 Report of the American Paper Institute Source: U.S. Department of Energy, 1977 B-54 3.0 ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSERVATION, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 3.1 Introduction The principal focii of the U.S. energy conservation policy appear to be: reduction of oil imports and to encourage switching from oil and natural gas to coal as the primary fuel forms whenever possible. These national energy conservation goals may meet at the expense of an increase in the consumption of electricity. That is, using electricity, derived from coal, nuclear, hydro, etc., to accomplish things that have hitherto been done by the direct use of oil or natural' gas in a process. Whereas the total amount of electricity consumed may increase, there is no absolute reason why the amount of end-use electricity per unit of goods or services cannot be reduced. It is believed that reduction can be obtained without a noticeable affect on life-style by increasing energy productivity. The reduction, however, is not easy to accomplish. Energy production may be traced back to a few hundred producers who may be influenced by a'few government actions or inactions. Energy consumption decisions, on the other hand, are made by millions of individuals, tens of thousands of industries and businesses, and thousands of political units. The oil embargo of 1973-74 and the rapid increase in prices of all forms of energy have done much to cause reductions in energy consumption in the maintenance of comfort, production and use of materials, equipments and in the provision of services. The U.S. national policy, with some notable exceptions, is based primarily on a procedure of persuasion and conviction rather than by conscription and compulsion. Automobile mileage standards and appliance efficiency ratings are examples of-the few exceptions to the policy. Our calculations and projections of possible electrical energy savings do not take into account any of the above mentioned constraints. is probable". They are based on "what is possible" not "what "What is probable" is left for the reader to speculate for probability depends upon the readers' vision of the course of complex and intertwined world and domestic events in which reason and idealism play unimportant parts. Nationalism, pride and strange alliances will influence energy supply, demand and policies. 3.2 Savings In the residential sector, as detailed in Section 2.1.5, we calculated that an estimated 4.0 x 1012 Btu input or 1.2 x 109 kWhe (in electricity) might be possibly saved in 1985 in Maine. factor. The output of a power plant with a capability of 186 MWe operating on a 0.75 capacity The comments associated with this projection are repeated below. They apply, for the most part, to the commercial and industrial sectors as well. We caution, however, that these savings are estimates. We have absolutely no way of estimating how much, in fact, will be accomplished in the way of energy conservation. There are several reasons for the "softness": a. First, these calculated savings are in error by the same amount of the data base (Daifuku, 1974) and the amount introduced by the MIT/NEEMIS modification. These errors can be determined only by more "field tests." b. Secondly, they are theoretical potential savings if all new housing were according to a minimum energy-consumption-based code and all appliances were energy-efficient. B-55 c. "Turn-around time" permits realization of savings only over a period of time beginning some time after the enactment of the measure or action. d. Many potential savings are achievable only through strongly enforced mandatory regulations over the whole USA and then only if the public agrees with the government's perception of an "energy crisis." e. The increase in cost of electricity over the past (post-oil embargo) years may have already resulted in some space and hot water heating thermostat setback. The original 74°F and 1400F upper limits may now in Maine, on an average, have been reduced from 740F to 72 F, 0 and from 140°F to 130 F. If so, the savings calculated by the state and federal governments, and by this report, may be high. In the conclusions for commercial sector, 2.2.3.4, projected possible savings are summarized in Table 2.28. An examination of the details, listed in Table 2.20, reveals that they can be a result only of "hard" decisions on the part of the U.S. Government and acceptance by commercial operators and the general public. The reader has to judge for him or her self which of the actions or measures is likely to be enacted by the government, implemented by the sector operators and accepted by the public. The industrial sector in Maine appears in many ways to be relatively conserving of electrical energy. The stone and paper industries have goals for overall energy conservation which may include switching from one energy form (oil, gas) to electricity. For these reasons, electrical energy conservation in the industrial sector in Maine is not likely to have a major impact on projected levels of consumption of electricity in the state. 3.3 Conclusions Many of the potential energy conservation actions and measures considered for the three sectors, residential, commercial and industrial, have been put into effect already. The "easy", "inexpensive", "quick pay-out" ones have been exploited; the "harder" "long term pay-out" ones will require considerable time in order to be adopted. The projected energy savings, estimated for each of the three sectors, can be obtained only by mandatory nation-wide actions on the part of the Federal government, something which may be desirable from one point of view, but politically difficult from another. In addition, "hardships" are perceived or imagined to be part of energy conservation. Before many of the measures or actions become acceptable, they will have to be borne equally, by all. This is difficult, if not acceptable. The various geographical actions of the U.S. have different energy supply and demand situations, a result of climate, proximity to fuel resources, and industrial activity. The principal barrier to energy conservation is the absence of mandatory regulations, regulations that will be difficult to enact under present public understanding of the energy situation. There is both reluctance to and resistance against the use of legislation (regulation) to force conservation, particularly when it "appears" that energy, although not quite as cheap as it used to be, is still abundant (with the possible exception of natural gas) in all forms. B-56 We can only recommend that theoretical projections and actual occurrences be closely monitored by the electrical utility industry and regulatory boards so that the capacity to supply electricity not be characterized by either expensive, excessive, surplus or intolerable inadequacy. B-57 TECHNICAL NOTE A PAPER INDUSTRY The four major paper and paper board products are newsprint, containers, and folding boxboard. writing paper. corrugated During the period 1962-73, annual U.S. production products increased an average compound rates between 4.5 - 6.7% annually. of these Projections on a national basis for 1973 - 1980 range between 2.7 - 5.0%. Figures 1 through 5 detail the U.S. averages of the flow of paper and paperboard pro- duction and energy input. Nationally, of the bark removed from roundwood was assumed burned in bark/combination o.5,; boilers to product steam and power used in mill operations. The combustible bark produces 10.5 MMBTU of gross heating value for every ton of bark burned. Electrical energy required to manufacture paper and paperboard is principally associated with drives for the paper machines, stock preparation, and waterpumping. requirements for paper Electrical energy machines are estimated to be 300 - 400 kw per ton of product. The estimated distribution is as follows: TABLE TNA-1 Electrical Energy Requirements for Manufacturing of Paper Products Newspr i n t 300 kwh/ton Writin 350 kwh/ton Paper Linerboard 325 kwh/ton (medium) Folding Boxboard 375 kwh/ton Note: much of the material in this section is adapted from: The DATA BASE/Potential for Conservation in Nine Selected Industries; FEA. June 1974. The output from the paper/paperboard machine is raw paper, often called "jumbo roll". The processing of this bulk output into finished paper products is called "converting" in the paper industry. For most consumer products, e.g. tissues, sanitary napkins, paper towels, and sometimesbags, writing paper tablets, reamsof typing paper, etc.. converting operations are not generally performed at the mill. Instead, they are located close to the markets. Data concerning cost of the primary energy used in producting each of the selected paper products for 1970 were available and are reproduced in Tables TNA-2 through TNA-4. Similar data for post embargo (1973-74) conditions could not be foJrd. As can be seen, the primary energy cost as a percentage of products price is close for all four products and hence the impact o energy cost increases should be reasonably similar on all finurproducts. Observations The data shown are for U.S. averages. or coal vary between plants. In the South and parts of the West, for earrple, gas constitutes a very sizeable proportion whereas in In 1971, t'iEgenertiQn over 50% of aine it is practically negligible. the total primary energy consumption in the case of newsprint, was for of purchased electri,:energy. content of the newsprint Proportions of primary energy type, natural gas, oil This high percentage is due to the high ground wood Groundwood pulping is very electric energy intensive. B-58 In additicn, the tylical newsprint mill purchases aproximately 80%of its electric energy requirements. The mills for the other products, in addition to nrut requ-ring as much el2ctri. energy, internally generae a highe, propo;tiri of their electric energy ;i-ed;. purchased to internally generated electric Theratio of energy is depicted for each of the paper; products in Figures TNA-1 through TNA-4. CONSERVATION OF THE NET ENERGY CONTENT Perhaps the first way to conserve energy on a national fuel value of the paper products themselves. paper products it produces. basis would be to make use of the Maine uses a very, very small proportion of the The products are distributed throughout the U.S. The end products are discarded after use. The gross heat of combustion of paper products is approximately 15.96 MMBTU per ton, the equivalanet of about 3 barrels of oil. With the hypothetical recovery of fuel value, the net primary energy consumed per ton of each of the paper products would be reduced as shown in Table 3, a calculation that can only be viewed from the standpoint of concern U.S. situation. with the overall The state of Maine can make its contribution, the estimated amount in recoverable Btus could be based on population. However, the end effect, reduction in the demand for electricity, is very hard to determine and that which we can estimate is of no value in planning energy sources. INCREASE IN ENERGY REQUIREMENTS Trends which may increase energy consumption per ton of product include: 1. The trend towards relatively more bleached products and the simultaneous trend towards higher average brightness of the bleached products. operation. Bleaching is a highly energy intensive For example, in the production of SBS folding boxboard, approximately 16% of the total primary energy consumption is attributable to bleaching. 2. disposal. Increased emphasis on air and water pollution abatement as well as solid waste In particular, the operation of electrostatic precipitators wastewater treatment facilities are energy intensive. For example, in the case of SBS folding boxboard, it is estimated that approximately 3.8% of additional primary energy consumption will be needed by the average integrated mill to meet the various future air and water pollutant emission requirements. DECREASE IN ENERGY REQUIREMENTS Trends which may decrease energy consumption per ton of product include: 1. Continued increase in kraft pulping as a fraction of total pulping due to increased demand for stronger and brighter products. process than other chemical and groundwood pulping. Kraft pulping is a less energy-consuming Kraft pulping increased its share of total pulp from 56% in 1958 to 69% in 1972 and the trend is expected to continue. 2. Continued increase in the ration of sawmill residue to groundwood used in pulping. Use of sawmill residue eliminated the energy, largely electrical, required for debarking and chipping. For example, in the case of the integrated mill for SBS folding boxboard, the primary energy savings in a shift from 100% per ton. sawmill residue would be approximately 0.9 MMBTU For the average 1971 case considered in this study, roundwood constituted 66% of the total pulpwood requirements for this product. For the total pulping operations in the U.S., the ratio of roundwood to residue used in pulping was 94:6 in 1950 and 63:35 in 1971. Projections for the lumber industry indicate an annual compound rate of growth of 4% from 1970 to 1980, and projections for the paper/paperboard industry indicate an annual compound rate growth of 3.6% over the same period. sawmill residue. This indicates the relative availability of more In addition, it is expected that the percentage recovery and use of saw- mill residue by pulpmills will increase. B-59 3. Anticipated reversal of the downward trend in relative use of waste (secondary) to virgin fiber as a result of environmental, and possibly economic, pressures to increase fiber resource recovery. The total primary energy consumed per ton of virgin newsprint was estimated to be 21.95 MMBTU in 1971. It is estimated that the production of one ton of recycled newsprint made from deinked waste newspapers would consume about 19.5 MMBTU resulting in a savings of approximately 7 in primary energy consumption. Note, however, that on the basis of gross energy consumed, the virgin newsprint mill consumes approximately 28.1 MMBTU per ton. This gross energy consumption includes the fuel value of the wood by-products fired in the pulping operations. On this basis, approximately 31% of gross energy consumption is saved in shifting from virgin to deinked newsprint. CONCLUSION a. There are opportunities for energy conservation in the paper and paperboard industry in Maine. b. The savings must be evaluated against pay-back period for necessary capital invest- ments. c. Energy consumption can also increase as a result of pollution abatement measures. d. Energy savings that ight be enjoyed within the paper and paperboard industry could be removed if plans for burning of wood residue for the generation of electricity for sale to the public are implemented. The question is, which would result in the greater benefit for Maine? B-60 ___.__ Table TNA-2 Cost of Total Primary Energy Used to Produce One Ton of Each Selected Paper Product in the U.S. Primary Energy Cost $/Ton Newsprint Writing Paper Corrugated Containers SBS Folding Boxboard Sales Price $/Ton ;(46) Primary Energy as Percent of Sales Price 7.94 11.02 150 245 5.3 4.5 10.20 207 4.9 9.99 200 5.0 B-61 Table TNA-3 PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF TOTAL MMBTU OF PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR PRODUCTION OF THE SELECTED PAPER PRODUCTS IN THE U.S. IN 1971 TYPE PRIMARY ENERGY Coal WRTTING NEWSPRINT PAPER CORRUGATED CONTAINERS SBS FOLDING BOXBOARD 6.6 19.3 25.8 17.1 Refined Oil Products 12.8 27.8 26.5 25.8 Natural Gas 13.5 23.5 42.6 40.6 Derivative Fuel Products (1.2) Primary Fuels for PurchasedElectric Energy TOTAL 67.1 29.4 6.3 16.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION MMBTU/TON 21.89 24.47 B-62 21.74 21.85 Table TNA-4 Maximum Potential Decrease in Total Primary Energy Required for Production Due to Energy Recovery from Discarded Products Total Primary Energy Consumption MMBTU/Ton Gross Heat of Combustion MMBTU/Ton Minimum Primary Energy Consumption Newsprint 21.95 15.86 6.09 Writing 24.47 15.86 8.61 21.74 15.86 5.88 21.90 15.86 6.04 Paper Corrugated Containers SBS Folding Boxboard B-63 a) r4-) O eo 0. 3 C) c -0 S4-) aLA: S- . .d ) O w o -)) 4-)C J-r O t-* C- a, C) . 0 .- W ---:~~;~wlor~uurI r_ f :D I- I-_I'4- O - .r ci 0 Cl) O LiI C L-A. - nJ 4O F_ S- W tL -LLC ' I CaY) Z L_ C) s- CL LL *- 0 C - --- - :-E~·C -- I.. .v. 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I- c r r __co ()m co rI- _. ('4 cn c ULr CL) ts '". 4 .- C Li.nCO co (1 :3 =C) -< z I F LL < c~- a, Lii w 8"z ' sr;F sr u o :~ LJ Ld Z C, S.dU F 4-i 5= $--I (#) A iI A I I I I I · d II C Co tI I20 I-- - C_ C) tn o C> Z; t- LU .:' CD C. 4a) (U -0 C) 'C I : 0 C-) It) <J C\) C-) 0 C3 C.) *C) 04) 4,I : ,_ 412 4., a Vf) w C) a, 0 - C( . .,C) C- CD , - cJ . c) C_3 ', 0\ 0 i- I-)C (U ¢. t-r C0 V. C 0 LA S.. I- I-:- 4: n: .f .f.: :3 CIL B-66 9) .o V) C: 0) 0C C) 4Z: ,, 0C) 4-' .,. .4) 4-, 4- . . ¢:1 (U 4- (IIk .t _L4 C 4- ( r-,. C . a. C) ': C 1 :. -. cLL ,) to u LI .- co CL g r·O) _ S> 4- Ct 4 a. o(0C O L L O 0( c r. c cr _ - , 0 tJI ZI :m::.c -- r - ' _s I-C)ol c: I r.. JI o -I J C- O ( C,) 'zI- 0 -ruaranurrucrwrle .*. co -I--ruL C) cy o C C L . K raft Pulping Lquor W Z C LU V)F F z O ->-Oe-C) 9879 MBTU V) CD0C J D r1 o 0(Ut cn -:) e) I- w .U.C) U a) o u- t F- 4. U VL ) o0 z °Z C> . = _ F~LL V)L1 iC)-LgLLJ od. CIO LI) X LO D. CY) C> 0o o0. to L4C-) an UACl oN LLI Of -t.,~, -, ,1'' , .. = . (- r . A ~ I C * C- * 4.) : . i U~j Fu w U Ol-O c03LLJ WoLU z t. 0w0 o 0I--C) C. (( ., I- - I*~ 0 Lu _ I- F-HYw -4 oSZ CD W Ii~~J I C (A u:j· 'L. L1-4 _, C.) - . C- C: '-4 _, _ _ _ -r--- C A l _ _ - Fi. r-_ t- o tn- I o Co M r- (C (9 C) i-. Lt. r- cCF% f- t... C) (A A, 5-oO L0 o ol C) " O 4- QJ , 4 ._CJI U (3 C: t. 0 (.j B-67 . (I) '/ .,C :'> o .O C) II. d) C: to *D C,) a LLJ 4-) 4J.' <-- cn V? C) (C) LI C u ON 0 (t VC) j_, IfI : .r ;, V.-- J / / }V i / '- Vl 4.0 REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 1. Brainard, J., H. Davitian, et al., A Perspective on the Energy Future of the Northeast United States, National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems, Brookhaven National Laboratory, June 1976. 2. Central Maine Power Co., Appliance Saturation Survey, 1976. 3. Daifuku, Richard, Simulation Model of Residential Space Heating and Central Air Conditioning in New England Disaggregated by State 1970-2000, Technical Report NEEMIS-MIT-77-003TR, February 1977. 4. Dole, Stephen H., Energy Use and Conservation in the Residential Sector: A Regional Analysis, Rand Corp., Santa Monica, California, June 1975. 5. Energy Conservation Project Report, Newsletter of the Energy Conservation Project, Environmental Law Institute, Washington,D.C., No. 4, January 1976. 6. Jurgen, Ronald K., "What to Tell Your Neighbors," IEEE Spectrum, June 1974, pp. 62-69. 7. Kurish, James B., Eric Hurst, Residential Energy Use Models for the Nine U.S. Census Divisions, Oak Ridge National Lab, ORNL/CON-11, April 1977. 8. Lee, John, Energy Supply and Demand in the Northeast United States, 1972, Brookhaven National Lab, Energy Policy Analysis Group, Department of Applied Science, Informal Report, September 1975. 9. Maine Energy Conservation Workshop, Energy Conservation in Maine: Weatherization Improvements to the Existing Housing Stock, Department of City and Regional Planning, Harvard University, June 1977. 10. Tolley, G.S., C.W. Upton, V.S. Hastings, Electric Energy Availability and Regional Growth, Ballinger Publishing Co., Cambridge, Mass., 1977 11. Maine Office of Energy Resources, Maine Comprehensive .Eergy Plan, 1976, Vol. I, p. 1-6. 12. "Merchandising Week", Billboard Publications, Rye, N.Y., N.Y. 10036. 13. Central Maine Power Saturation Survey, 1976. 14. Moyers, J.C., The Room Air Conditioner as an Energy Consumer, ORNL-EP-59, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, October 1973. 15. Center for Policy Alternatives, "Productivity of Servicing Consumer Durables", MIT, 1974 16. American Paper Institute, "21 Ways to Save Energy," pamphlet distributed to member firms in October, 1973. B-68 17. Arthur D. Little, Inc., An Impact of ASHRAE Standard 90-75, Energy Conservation in New Building Design, report to the Federal Energy Administration, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Mass., December, 1975. 18. Arthur D. Little, Inc., "Residential and Commercial Energy Use Patterns 1972-1990" (Volume I) in Federal Energy Administration Project Independence Blueprint Final Task Force Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., November 1974. 19. Arthur D. Little, Inc., Supply and Demand Projections of the New England's Energy Requirements, New England Regional Commission, Boston, Mass., October, 1975. 20. Electric Council of New England, Electric Utility Industry in New England Statistical Bulletin 1975. 21. Electric Council of New England, Bedford, Mass., 1976. Energy Conservation Project Report, Newsletter of the Energy Conservation Project, Environmental Law Institute, Washington, D.C., No. 4, January 1976. 22. Federal Energy Administration, Project Independence Task Force Report, "Energy Conservation in the Manufacturing Sector 1954-1990," U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., Nov., 1974. 23. Harbridge House, Inc., Residual Oil Shortfall and Electricity Conservation in New England, prepared for New England Regional Commission, Harbridge House, Inc., Boston, 24. Mass., February 1974. Lee, John, Future Residential and Commercial Energy Demand in the Northeast, (BNL Northeast Energy Perspectives Study) prepared for the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, N.Y., March 1976. 25. Maine Energy Conservation Workshop, Energy Conservation in Maine Weatherization Improvements to the Existing Housing, Department of City and Regional Planning, Harvard University, June 1977. 26. National Petroleum Council, Committee on Energy Conservation, Potential for Energy Conservation in the United States: 1979-1985, National Petroleum Council, Washington, D.C., August 1975. 27. Salter, R.G., R.L. Petruschell, and K.A. Wolf, Energy Conservation in Nonresidential Buildings, prepared for National Science Foundation, Rand Corp., Santa Monica; California, October 1976. 28. Tolley, G.S., C.W. Upton, V.S. Hastings, Electric Energy Availability and Regional Growth, Ballinger Publishing Co., Cambridge, Mass., 1977 29. U.S. Department of Commerce, Input-Output Structure of the U.S. Economy, 1967 (Vol. 1) U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1974. B-69 30. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1976, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1976 31. U.S. Water Resources Council, 1972 OBERS Projections: Economic Activity in the U.S., Vol. 1 and Vol. 4, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1974. 32. U.S. Department of Energy/U.S. Department of Commerce "Voluntary Industrial Energy Conservation" Progress Report 5, July 1977., Office of Business Assistance Programs, Office of Conservation and Solar Applications, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., 20585. B-70 ____