Developing regional collaboration in river basin management in response to climate change WORKSHOP: 16-17 October 2014 Pan Pacific Sonargaon Hotel Dhaka, Bangladesh Background The Public Sector Linkage Program (PSLP) - funded by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade - aims to develop regional collaboration in South Asia river-management based on identification of mutual benefits among riparian states that are susceptible to impacts of climate change and human development on Himalayan-sourced rivers. Climate change will affect flows in major rivers, which support the well being of more than a billion people in South Asia. But impacts will vary regionally due to changes in rainfall and the rates of snow and glacial melts. Australia n Malaysia n South Africa n Italy n Similarly, demand for water is increasing with population and with changing water consumption patterns in major South Asian cities and with increasing irrigation needs for agriculture. There is therefore a need to identify shared strategies for managing both supply and deman to avoid water resources shortages and regional conflict. Bangladesh draws more than 90 percent of its water from trans-boundary river systems. The Teesta River supports the livelihoods of more than 20 million Bangladeshis, but demand for water - and barrages on the river - are threatening the viability of this water resource. This workshop addressed the Teesta River basin - a water resource shared by India and Bangladesh. India CRICOS provider: Monash University 00008C Proceedings Official Opening THE HONOURABLE ANISUL ISLAM MAHMUD, MP Honourable Minister, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Bangladesh is a country among the most exposed to climate change. As a low country with a large coastline, it is particularly exposed to sea-level rise and the catastrophic impacts of cyclones and storm surge on its populous coastal communities. It is also exposed, more than most countries, to the devastating impacts of extreme floods in the wet season and prolonged droughts in the dry season. With climate change and wide spread poverty, Bangladesh must make the best use of its resources to adapt and prosper. River basins transcend national and state boundaries. Rivers are essential to provide life-saving water and to support agricultural and emerging industrial economies. Increasing demand for water - for agriculture, hydro-electricity, and other forms of power generation - are creating conditions of extreme scarcity in some areas. Dams upstream affect the well-being of communities down-stream. They also affect vital ecosystem services including water quality. This in turn affects the health, well-being and prosperity of Bangladeshis. How will the some 30 major dams that are planned for the Teesta affect dry season water availability for those downstream regions which have traditionally depended on water from the Teesta? What mutual benefits can be identified that can encourage a collaborative response between India and Bangladesh in water resource management? As one example, the provision of dry season flows to Bangladeshi farmers can improve agricultural production for tradeable commodities to India. This will improve the economic and social well-being of both countries. Maintenance of forested riparian areas in India will reduce sedimentation, improve water quality and support vital ecosystem services important to both countries. This workshop will focus on the identification of mutual benefits in the context of changes to climate, demography, land use, and geopolitics. A large number of Bangladeshi stakeholders are represented and many are presenting at this workshop. The challenge is before us. It is bigger than just one country and a regional collaborative solution is required. A collaborative approach is needed, particularly in responding to climate change, to urbanisation, and to demography in the region. I am pleased to note that Monash University is collaborating with a number of regional stakeholders among those states which depend on Himalayan-sourced rivers. These states include Nepal, Pakistan, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh. It has chosen the Teesta River along with the Indus and the Koshi as exemplifying contested trans-boundary rivers important in the regional economy of South Asia. The Teesta is a glacially fed river responsive to rainfall in the Indian state of Sikkim. It joins the Brahmaputra in Bangaldesh and is a vital source of water for the dry northern regions of Bangladesh. India and Bangaldesh have extensive plans for hydropower and irrigation. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute Introduction DR PAUL MCSHANE Monash University, Australia Common problems preventing regional collaboration in river basin management include: Construction of cascade dams in Sikkim include more than 30 major hydropower projects. Planned water sharing between India and Bangladesh has been postponed. Here we focus on the identification of mutual benefits to encourage regional co-operation. • poor communication and co-ordination among agencies responsive to water resource management Governance and management issues: the Teesta • activities of upstream states will affect the utility of downstream states • climate change requires a co-ordinated approach among and within states. DR DOUGLAS HILL Department of Geography, University of Otago, New Zealand We apply two approaches in encouraging regional collaboration in river basin management: • user-friendly integrated models to explore consequences of alternative policy actions and of likely climate change scenarios • knowledge management for co-ordinating information exchange among agencies and stakeholders The Teesta Basin has been chosen as an exemplar river basin (along with the Koshi Basin) for South Asia. It is a contested water resource - shared between India and Bangladesh. Both India and Bangladesh have further plans for hydropower and for irrigation. This creates problems, particularly for the downstream riparian Bangladesh in managing dry season flows. But the Teesta does not present as a bilateral management issue. Within India, state issues - particularly West Bengal - dominate and can frustrate regional collaboration. Bangladesh draws more than 90 percent of its water from trans-boundary river systems. It is dependent on effective collaboration with neighbouring states. More generally, water availability in South Asia has declined by at least 70 percent since 1950. The Teesta supports the livelihoods of more than 20 million Bangladeshis. The Himalayas provide water and support ecosystem services including provisioning (e.g. food, fresh water), regulating (e.g. climate), supporting (e.g. soil, ground water, nutrients) and cultural services (e.g. recreation, religion). Regional co-operation in river basin management has been made difficult because of: • a shift from supply-side management to adaptive management • securitisation, sovereignity, and national politics • governance and due process • participation and transparency • climate change and uncertainty Historically the predominant approach to water infrastructure in South Asia has overwhelmingly focused on the supply side with engineered solutions, top-down bureaucracy and a technocratic consultation process. The emergence of integrated water resource management (IWRM) has encouraged a shift towards demand management including recognition of ecosystem services and benefit sharing mechanisms. The Teesta Basin presents multi-scalar issues with international (India/ Bangladesh) and intranational (Sikkim-Paschim Bangla) issues. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute Collusion between state governments (India) and private sector companies accompany piecemeal and ad-hoc planning. Disputes over the Teesta reflect India’s construction of the Gazaldoba Barrage upstream of Dalia and reduction of flow to Bangladesh in the dry season. A change in the culture of water resource management needs to occur to facilitate effective and co-operative regional planning. Further to this, release of water during the wet season can cause floods and bank erosion. The Joint River Commission recognised in 2005 that ‘lean season flows’ in the Teesta will not meet the needs of both countries and sharing should be based on shared sacrifices. In 2011, the two countries were poised to sign agreements on the Teesta, but the Chief Minister of West Bengal did not agree to the proposed allocation of 50 percent of the river’s water. Water security and India-Bangladesh challenges and opportunities MAJOR GENERAL MD ABDUR RASHID (Retd) Climate change is a complex phenomenon that affects human life - politics, economiccs, migration, human rights, development, trade and health. Climate Change can trigger conflict - instability that may appear as a cause of humanitarian disasters and consequences are not restricted by the political boundaries. Read the full paper: http://www.monash.edu/ sustainability-institute/assets/documents/ programs-initiatives/natural-resourcesmanagement/majorgeneralrashidpapernrm.pdf Teesta water sharing agreement and Bangladesh-India relations SUFIA KHANOM Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Bangladesh Water security issues facing the Teesta River reflect increasing demand for water - principally for agriculture. The Teesta is a perennial rain and snow fed river. More than 300 glacial lakes are located in the Sikkim HImalayas feeding the Teesta. Concerns over glacial retreat with climate change reflect concerns that decreasing flows to Bangladesh will worsen. There are other uses including planned hydropower dams in Sikkim, the Teesta Barrage in West Bangal for irrigation, and potential interlinking of the Teesta to supply water to India. As water is a state issue in India, the Indian Government could not proceed without further consultations with the West Bengal government. Discussions between the two countries have largely been technical in nature with little discussion of social and ecological issues or stakeholder concerns. Civil society engagement has also been very limited. Sikkim has considerable scope for development of tourism, horticulture, and floriculture. It is therefore likely that water demand in Sikkim will continue to rise at the expense of downstream flows to Bangladesh. Relations among countries in South Asia has been historically difficult with histories of armed conflict. As demand for water grows, tension and potential conflict will continue to develop. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ Trans-national dialogue towards effective co-basin management of trans-boundary rivers: learnings from the Brahmaputra river basin. SAFA FANAIAN South Asia Consortium for Interdisciplinary Water Resource Studies (SaciWATERs), Hyderabad, India Trans-boundary river issues in South Asia are characterised by: • gross inequalities in the temporal and spatial distribution of water between countries • governance is marred by deep-seated distrust, political tensions and histories of armed conflict • problems compounded by floods, droughts and earthquakes • treaties largely state-centric, technocratic, exclusionary, and nationalistic hydropolitical viewpoints • ecological alterations, resource degradation and socio-ecological disruptions largely neglected The Brahmaputra river basin exemplifies many of the issues above. It is a contiguous ecological unit spreading across four states: China, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh as a lower riparian, is dependent on the management interventions of the upstream countries. Negotiations and developments are largely formed by virtue of position bargaining. China and Inida take a lead role. The river basin dynamics have not been looked at holistically in discussions among riparian states. A track three approach (involving civil society organisations) offers scope to depoliticise many of the issues that frustrate effective collaboration among riparian states. Challenges include bringing people together, particularly with track two (government agency) communication. The Teesta Basin, which involves only two riparian states, may offer an example of effective co-operation and trans-boundary river basin management. Working towards improved resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region (Nepal, China, Bangladesh, Indian and Australia) DR LANCE HEATH Australian National University, Australia This integrated collaborative project seeks to take a source-to-sink approach to managing climate change risks. A primary aim is to develop a set of transferrable processes and options for identifying local appropriate adaptation responses that fascilitate and improve resilience and adaptive capacity building. Different tools and methodologies will apply depending on location and circumstances (e.g. urban versus rural). Our work commenced in the Jhiku Khola watershed, part of the Koshi River Basin located in Nepal (Panchkhal). Field surveys, site visits and participatory workshops have yielded data and information that has allowed local adaptive strategies to be identified that are principally aligned to water resource management in potential extended dry seasons. This work links with the parallel Monash University study that is examining regional collaboration across national boundaries for the Koshi River Basin. Both studies engage systemic models to interrogate causal factors influencing water and agricultural production. Both studies engage research and policy agencies in riparian states/ countries to improve understanding of climate change and the consequences for sustainable development in vulnerable regions. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ WORKSHOP SESSION: 17 Oct 2014: Developing a knowledge management framework for the Teesta River Basin Facilitated by: DR JEREMY AARONS Monash Sustainability Institute & Caulfield School of Information Technology, Monash University, Australia In this workshop, session participants divided into three small groups. Each group looked at water resource management decision-making for the Teesta River Basin at different levels. The aim of the session was to complete details on how information relevant to water resource management in the Teesta is collected and shared. The session also began mapping the information flows between key decision-making bodies. Each group was asked to document: i. key decision-making bodies relevant to the Teesta River Basin; ii. sources of data and information used in decision-making for the Teesta; and iii. how decision-making bodies share data and information for co-ordination and co-operation. Together the outputs of these three groups feed into the development of a Knowledge Management Framework for the Teesta River Basin, in this case providing detail on decision-making as it pertains mainly to Bangladesh-based agents involved with the Teesta. This initial work will thus need to be supplemented by further exploration of the national level and national-local linkages from an Indian perspective. This activity provides a starting point for developing a more detailed Knowledge Management Framework for the Teesta - a broad systems-level conceptual model of the decision-making space within which key decisions relating to river basin management are made. The first group looked at the trans-national level, investigating trans-boundary co-operation and knowledge sharing between key decision-making bodies in Bangladesh and india. The second group explored national level co-operation and knowledge sharing among Bangladeshi organisations and agencies (government and other key players). The third group explored the linkages from Bangladeshi national level agencies down through the district level to the community level. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ GROUP 1: TRANS-BOUNDARY (BANGLADESH-INDIA) CO-OPERATION AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING This group identified the key players in trans-boundary dialogue and cooperation for the Teesta River Basin. In terms of political cooperation and coordination the key formal body is the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), established in 1972 to forge cooperation between Bangladesh and India on river management. The JRC membership includes political appointees as well as engineers and other technical experts and advisers (e.g. involving Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology and the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati). The JRC facilitates formal data sharing (e.g. hydrological data) between its Bangladesh and Indian counterparts and has played a key role in negotiating treaties between Bangladesh and India, including the pending Teesta River agreement. Other key players in trans-boundary coordination include the respective Bangladesh and Indian government ministries, including the Ministers of Water, Agriculture, Environment, Fisheries and Public Health. Within Bangladesh, key bodies include the Bangladesh Water Resources Planning Organisation (WARPO) under the Ministry of Water Resources, which is responsible for nationwide water resources planning. It also includes the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), the which is responsible for implementing national water policy and managing flood control, drainage and irrigation projects. Within India, the state ministries of West Bengal and Sikkim also play important decision-making roles in regional water policy, irrigation, urban development and health. West Bengal as the lower riparian region that directly borders Bangladesh tends to have a higher stake in trans-national negotiations acting with “more concerns and a louder voice”. West Bengal is also significant as the location of the Teesta Barrage Project. Sikkim as the upper riparian region has less at stake in trans-national dialogue and thus tends to be more relaxed with respect to trans-boundary water resource negotiations. A range of technical knowledge institutions in both Bangladesh and India are involved in data gathering, research and analysis and provide technical input and advice to major policy-making and decision-making bodies: • The bilateral India and Bangladesh Joint Technical Committee (JTC) collects hydro-morphological data and has a mandate that includes data collection, database management and data-sharing responsibilities • The Centre for Environmental and Geographical Information Services (CEGIS) in Bangladesh is a public trust under the Bangladesh Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR). CEGIS provides advice, consulting and training services, and develops software and data systems - including GIS systems, satellite and remote-sensing data, hydrological and river morphology data, and a range of river modelling tools. • The Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) conducts research and provides technical expertise to key decision-making bodies in the area of water resource and flood management. • The India Institute of Technology Guwahati (IIT-G) located is Assam, India, is a research institution that also provides technical expertise including data provision and analysis. • Other Indian universities involved in research, hydrological, geological, and geographical work that provide technical input and data for decision-making bodies including Sikkim University, the University of North Bengal, and Jadavpur Univerrsity (Kolkota). • The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) - an independent, not-for-profit, research institute based in New Dehli conducts research focused on energy, environment, and sustainable development. It also provides technical advice and support to key decision making bodies. TERI develops climate change models exploring issues such as glacial melt and is also working in the Koshi River Basin (shared by India and Nepal) www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ The group also identified non-government organisation and donor agencies that operate at the trans-boundary level and may influence policy development and contribute to knowledge generation, and information and data sharing. The group noted that the importance of donor agencies in influencing research and policy development is often under-acknowledged as they are often missed in stakeholder analyses. Key donor agencies identified included: • The World Bank (WB) who provide support for development programs, including irrigation infrastructure such as barrages and dams. They may also influence national policy. • The Asian Development Bank (ADB) • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) • The South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI), a partnership between The World Bank and the governments of Australia, UK and Norway. SAWI aims to ‘support countries to improve and deepen trans-boundary dialogue, enhance the basin and water resources knowledge base, strengthen water institutions, and support investments that lead to sustainable, fair and inclusive development’. Key international NGO’s involved in the Teesta River Basin include the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) who provide policy-level information and data, and the Asia Foundation. GROUP 2: NATIONAL LEVEL COOPERATION AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING (BANGLADESH) The second group explored cooperation and knowledge sharing among national level Bangladeshi agencies and organisations - including government agencies and other key players. This group identified many of the same players as the first group. However, they explored the roles of these groups in data sharing and national policy setting in more detail. The main Bangladesh government ministry for water resource management is the Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), under which sit key-policy making bodies, including: • The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), which collects daily water-level data down to the district level. It also coordinates data on the Teesta Barrage and other water infrastructure. • The Water Resource Planning Organisation (WARPO), which is responsible for water resource planning. • The River Research Institute (RRI), based in Faridpur. It conducts physical modelling of rivers (e.g. for operation of the Teesta Barrage) and provides research services, training and advice on river bank protection, flood control, irrigation and drainage structures. The Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) also plays a key role in water resource policy. This is particularly through the Department of Agricultural Extension, which is responsible for agricultural coverage and production data sets for all of Bangladesh, including the Teesta Basin. The MoA also administers the Soil Resources Development Institute (SRDI). SRDI collates national soil data sets and is responsible for land-use information and agricultural manuals. Closely connected to the MoA is the Barind Multipurpose Development Authority (BMDA). This is a statutory body responsible for irrigation and agricultural use of water in the northern regions of Bangladesh (the Barind Tract). The BMDA can provide agricultural data for this region, including surface water resources and irrigation. A number of government-supported trustee bodies undertake research and provide data, modelling and technical services for water resource decision-makers. These are autonomous bodies with government representation on their governing boards. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ They include: • The Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) Bangladesh. This group undertakes modelling and provides GIS data for water resource management. CEGIS are also involved in setting data standards and are generally open and flexible with data sharing. • The Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) provide technical services, including data and decision-support systems relating to flood control, flood forecasting, irrigation and drainage, river morphology, salinity and sediment transport. IMW also provide services for Environmental Impact Assessments. • • The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) and the World Bank (WB) produce a set of Bangladesh Poverty Maps in collaboration with BBS. These maps, updated every few years, document poverty intensity, market accessibility and education levels down to Upazilla (subdistrict) levels. • The South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI) does not generate its own data but collates available data into knowledge-bases and conducts data analysis (e.g. spatial data analysis for GBM products). Universities involved in research and data collection relevant to water resource management include: The Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) is an autonomous public • multi-disciplinary organisation that conducts policy oriented research on development issues. BIDS generates and provides socio-economic data for development planning and policy use. • Other organisations that can provide relevant data for water resource management include: • The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), which provides national census data, including household data on income and expenditure. The data is collected every ten years, with the last census held in 2011. BBS can provide raw data for research and policy purposes. • The Bangaldesh Meteorological Department (BMD), which provides daily meteorological data, including temperature, rainfall and seismology data. • The Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB) affiliated with the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources. It provides geographical data relevant to dams, canals and other water infrastructure. • The Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organisation (SPARRSO) can provide remote sensing and satellite data. The Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) at Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), which undertakes flood management research. Dhaka University and the University of Rajshahi, who conduct socio-economic research and generate data that can input into policy development for water resource management. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ GROUP 3: NATIONAL-DISTRICT-LOCAL DATA SOURCES AND LINKAGES (BANGLADESH) These sources include: This group explored linkages from national level agencies in Bangladesh down to the community level. They began by outlining the levels of governance in Bangladesh and then identifying forms of data and data sources relevant at each level. • Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) socioeconomic, demographic, macroeconomic etc. • Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) - weather data such as temperature and rainfall at the local, district and national levels The levels of government from national to village are: • National Government of Bangladesh --> Division Level --> Zila Parishad (District Level Administration) --> Upazila Parishad (Sub-District Level Council) --> Union Parishad (Village Level Council) Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), who collect some data at the local village level, providing downloadable data on flood, river erosion and ground water. • Department of Environment (DoE), which provides environmental data, but not much at the local level • Department of Fisheries, which collects local level data on fish production and fish biodiversity. The smallest rural administrative and local government units in Bangladesh are the Union Parishad. At this local level there are field officers working directly with people in communities who collect primary data using methods such as focus group discussions. For example, the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) operates at all levels from the Division down to Union Parishad level. It has extensive field offices in local regions. DAE collect and can provide data on irrigation and production down to the local level. In general, coverage of local-level data by individual researchers is very small. Most government data sources in Bangladesh only operate and generate data down to the Upazila (sub-district) level. In general they do not have grass-roots level data. NGOs also operate and collect data at the local level, working on issues such as local climate change, agriculture and local livelihoods. Data is usually collected through a local field office, then brought together by project officers before being compiled and synthesised by a head office into analysis and subsequent policy recommendation (for example, for input into the Bangladesh National Adaptation Programme of Action and the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009). NGOs operating down to the local level in Bangladesh, include: • WorldFish • Concern Universal • Pali Karma-Sahayak Foundation • Young Power in Social Action • BRAC Bangladesh • International Rice Research Institute www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ Knowledge management for collaborative river basin management in response to climate change ABSTRACT BY DR JEREMY AARONS Monash Sustainability Institute & Caulfield School of Information Technology, Monash University, Australia This project aims to develop a draft knowledge management framework that builds on assembled knowledge and information (including traditional wisdom). It adopts a multi-disciplinary approach, including socio-economic information and local, indigenous knowledge. Development of the framework involves mapping available information (including traditional wisdom, hydrological models, regional climate models, land-use patterns, and agriculture), and docomenting information sharing pathways (or identification of barriers to information exchange) among responsive agencies. Project outcomes include: i. Strengthened capacity among agencies representing riparian states in a knowledge management approach to collaboration and coordination; and ii. Improved information exchange, resulting in a shared understanding of sustainable water resource management strategies. We define Knowledge Management as the systematic approach to collecting, sharing and integrating knowledge to inform policy and support decision making: providing the right knowledge to the right people at the right time. Our knowledge management approach to river basin management focuses on the identification of benefit sharing as this is considered to be the best way of encouraging regional collaboration in river basin management. Current efforts in benefit sharing demonstrate that there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach. Each approach needs to be tailored to the context and involve a unique mix of interventions. We adopt an evidence-based approach, which involves building a benefit sharing framework from the bottom-up based on the best available knowledge (and including all relevant stakeholders). Our approach initially focuses on cooperation for data and information sharing, including the establishment of knowledge networks and trans-boundary capacity building. The aim is to build collaborative frameworks for benefit sharing based on cooperation, negotiation, and mutual agreement - incorporating shared information infrastructure (such as data systems, GIS, decision support tools and warning systems), and systems for monitoring, evaluation, review and improvement. For the Teesta River Basin, establishing an effective knowledge management framework for benefit sharing ultimately involves three components: 1. Governance arrangements, including high-level leadership and coordination, regional cooperation and an improved overarching legal and regulatory environment. Developing this involves undertaking an analysis of current governance arrangements, exploring the possibility of a basin-wide governance system, and developing means for strengthening diplomatic relations between riparian states. 2. Data and information infrastructure, including a unified data system (knowledge base), data sharing arrangements, targeted decision-support and new integrated tools and technologies. Building this into the framework requires undertaking a data and information audit, establishing a basin-wide data governance system, and coordination process between key stakeholders, and data integration into an accessible knowledge base. 3. A framework for stakeholder participation for developing integrated solutions. This will involve primary decision-makers (such as governments); key stakeholders (such as NGOs, industry, and water user groups); mutli-disciplinary experts (such as social and physical science, engineering, economics and law), as well as local, traditional and community-based participation. This requires the establishment of formal coordinating bodies and forums; informal networks and communities of practice; communication, education and capacity building; developing bottom-up participatory processes for community involvement in policy; and program development. www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ Systemic modelling for the Teesta River Basin DR TERRY CHAN Monash University, Australia We use Bayesian networks to integrate biophysical and socioeconomic issues relevant to river basin management. We aim to provide realistic and simplified systemic overviews that policy makers can use to evaluate the consequences of various policy interventions (e.g. water resource allocation strategies) or of climate change (e.g. on agriculture). Bayesian networks are useful because they are: • based on conceptual cause-effect links; • relatively simple to build and simplify complexity; • graphically based so they can be used by a range of stakeholders; • quantitative, allowing prioritisation; • able to use sparse data; • able to combine different sources of data (e.g. expert opinion, modelled data, field data); • explicitly include uncertainty; and • flexible and can be changed and updated easily. We have started this process for the Koshi River Basin. We now extend our modelling to the Teesta Basin. Researchers with regional expertise in multiple disciplines as well as local field experience were involved in a facilitated group discussion around the Teesta River Basin and how systemic modelling could add value to other work in this basin. Initial group brainstorming elicited what local stakeholders value and want to improve, preserve and protect in the Teesta River Basin; what the threats are to these values; and how these threats occur. water for irrigation, as this is the primary focus of the region. A secondary focus was water-related ‘beneficiaries/ equity’ and ‘environmental flows’ for ecosystems in the river channel. Two focus groups then developed preliminary conceptual models (see Figures 1 and 2) around ‘water for irrigation’, adding and connecting what were thought to be the main variables influencing that central value. For each of those secondary variables, the main variables that influenced them were then added and connected, and so on outward. This included cross linkages with existing variables as new variables were added. At each stage, the other values, hazards, threats (see Table 1), and management actions and adaptations previously discussed were considered. It was emphasised that models are simplifications of reality and there is no one right way to model such a complex system. Both networks emphasised the importance of both surface and groundwater irrigation, and the differences between these. They also emphasised the importance of accounting for crop types and agricultural factors. Specific factors relating to use of groundwater were also replicated in both conceptual models, including groundwater quality and the economics of energy costs (for pumping). Limited time meant a number of factors were not satisfactorily linked in to the conceptualisations (e.g. see floating variables in Figure 2). Next steps will include ongoing communication with participants for iterative development of these conceptual models. From the shortlist of values (see Table 1), the primary focus for future work was decided to be www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ TABLE 1: Group discussion for systemic understanding of the Teesta River Basin VALUES What do the stakeholders value? What do they want to improve, preserve or protect? THREATS What are the threats to this/ these values? • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Equitable/ fair allocation of water Water for irrigation/ irrigated agriculture Water for hydropower Environmental flows to preserve the life of the river Transit/ transport Productivity (E.g. Hh net income) Livelihoods Char livelihoods Provisional services Regulatory services Habitat Flood control Reliability Quality Fisheries Sediment Salinity (not as significant in Teesta) Public health, health services Erosion Groundwater table/ piezo levels Household domestic use of water Sanitation Subsistence agriculture Flood recession agriculture Cultural meanings and value (especially upper reaches, Sikkim) Beneficiaries/ equity • • • • • • • • • Changing climate and rainfall Environmental degradation Pollution/ contamination (where groundwater irrigation occurs) Poor governance Changing support, economics around tube wells Changing economics around diesel (current subsidies) Reliance on historic surface water irrigation system Lack of community capital for pumps Over-extraction of groundwater Conflict Social stress River engineering projects: diversion/ interlinking, power infrastructure www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ FIGURE 1: www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute/ FIGURE 2 Supported by: For more information, contact: Dr Paul McShane Chief Research Officer Office location: MSI, Building 74, Clayton Telephone: +61 3 9902 0739 Email: paul.mcshane@monash.edu www.monash.edu/sustainability-institute