How Might the Financial Crisis Impact Tourism in Maine?
Harold Daniel Associate Professor, Marketing
Maine Business School
Director, University of Maine System Center for Tourism Research & Outreach
Potential Competitive Opportunity
Trial/Retrial Opportunity
206 T
~
Y
Marketing Theory Tells Us:
Assuming a Satisfactory Product, the Greatest Opportunity to
Improve Sales is by Increasing Trial
~
Is Maine Tourism entering a Time for More Easily Attracting
Trial/Retrial Because of Economizing Tourists?
Maine
Mass
New
Hampshire
Vermont
New
Brunswick
Nova
Scotia
(598)
(598)
(598)
(598)
(598)
(598)
%
%
%
%
%
%
Trial: Ever Visited
47.2
47.3
39.6
39.0
25.3
27.9
Adopted: Favorite
Destination
15.4
13.4
11.0
9.5
12.0
16.1
Conversion
.326
.283
.278
.244
.474
.578
This could be a very good time to invest in Product to encourage Conversion.
2
Potential Competitive Opportunity
Capitalize as Other States Struggle
206 T
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Y
Product – Improving Ours
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Improve Existing Product to Enhance Competitiveness
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Innovate Now – Develop and Introduce New Tourism Products
Promotion & Advertising – Increasing Mind Share for Maine
~
If Possible: Maintain Our Investments in Promotion & Advertising
Now while Other States may be Reducing Theirs
~
If Not: More Efficiently Use Budgets to Support Visitation by Key
Market Segments
~
Target Media Investments with the Right Message to the Right Market
{
~
But what is the Right Message? For Which Market?
Take Advantage of Increased Value offered by Media
Invest in Tourism to Support Its Contribution to the State’s Budget.
Plant the seeds now for Capitalizing on the Recovery.
3
Age
206 T
Y
Base: Overnight Marketable Trips
More Likely to
Have Assets
Exposed
Average Maine Visitor tends to be …
•Older
•More Highly Educated
•Have Higher Income
Less Likely to
Have Assets
Exposed
Average Age
Maine
46.1
U.S. Norm
44.5
Source: Longwoods International 2006
4
Potential Outcomes
206 T
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Y
Could visitor mix/composition evolve?
~
~
Fewer Middle-Aged & Younger Visitors
~
These Households Will Likely Cut Major Expenses
~
More Exposed to the Stock Market
~
More Likely to be Threatened by Job Loss
More Older, Upscale Visitors
~
Less Exposed to the Stock Market
~
Less Likely to be Threatened by Job Loss
~
More Discretionary Time and Cash
~
Maine: A potential Alternative Destination for longer, more
expensive vacations deferred
5
Research Strategy
206 T
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Y
Assumptions
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Need for Rapid Information
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Need for Information at Low Cost
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Reactions to Financial/Economic Crises are similar among
Winter and Summer Tourists
Two Quick Projects
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Better Understanding Our Markets
~
~
Qualitative Research Among Tourism Stake Holders
Understanding how Our Markets are Coping Now,
Implications for Future Leisure Travel Behavior
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Quantitative Research Among Winter Tourists
6
Research Strategy
Better Understanding Our Markets
206 T
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Y
Qualitative Research Among Tourism Stake Holders
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Targeted Investigation
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Group Interviews w/ Operators in Lodging, Restaurants,
Attractions, Transportation
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Safe Environment (avoid their competitors)
~
Points of Investigation
{
Operations Assessment:
How are your operations doing now? Why?
{
Market Segments They See in Their Operations:
Who is visiting now? How are your customers now
different from your customers a year ago?
Are different market segments apparent to you? How?
How do they seem to be reacting to market crises?
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Research Strategy
Understanding how Our Markets are Coping Now,
Implications for Future Leisure Travel Behavior
206 T
~
Y
Quantitative Research
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Collect Data from Winter Tourists On Site in Maine
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Events & Venues
{
~
~
Alpine Skiing, Cross Country Skiing, Snowmobiling,
Snowshoeing, Dog Sledding
Importance of Leisure Travel Characteristics
~
Can we identify Market Segments?
~
Is there a Cost Segment? Value Segment?
Are They Changing Their Leisure Travel Behavior?
~
If so, How?
{
Eliminating Trips?
{
Shortening Trip Duration?
{
Down Scaling Accommodations?
8
206 T
Y
What have we missed? What
other questions should be
considered?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
9