Overview of Solar Photovoltaic Markets
and Technology
A short course presented at Cornell University
March 28, 2006
Charles Korman
Chief Technologist, Solar Energy
GE Global Research Center
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Energy and the evolution of global culture
Smalley’s Pyramide
10 Greatest Global Issues
Human Development Index
From Richard Smalley, Rice University
Global Environment
• The Weather Makers (How man is changing the climate and what it means
for life on Earth - Tim Flannery
• Field Notes from a Catastrophe (Man, nature, and climate change – Elizabeth
Kolbert
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Greenhouse gases from hydrocarbon power
generation
Equivalent Stock of Energy Source
Sources of energy
U.S. DOE Roadmap
Annual Energy Supply from the Sun
Uranium
Natural
Gas
Oil
Coal
Annual
Energy
Demand
Fraunhofer
Institute
From
Fraunhofer
Institute
DOE/NREL
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Photovoltaic markets
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PV market segments
On-Grid
Remote Industrial
Pictue
Cathodic Protection
Communications
119
66.3
Consumer Electronic
Water Pumping
17
10 %
Residential 10 %Commercial
969
408
dog
24
Remote Habitat
10 %
Home lighting,
portable electronics
Utility
10 %
Village
85
Home
34
Facility
13
66.3
Transportation
Signals/Signage
21
Remote Mobile
RV, Auto, Boat
Outdoor Lighting
19
12
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Solar industry growth and drivers
• Record 53% worldwide growth … 5-Year
CAGR 42%, fueled by Germany’s 75¢/kWh,
20-year feed-in-tariff program
By Application
1GW = $7B in ’04
1,200
1,000
Grid
Off Grid
$8.0
Consumer
$ Billion
$7.0
• Projected 5 year CAGR of 20-30% may be
constrained due to Si feedstock shortage
$5.0
$B
MW
$6.0
800
$4.0
600
$3.0
400
$2.0
200
$1.0
0
$0.0
'00
2,000
'01
'02
'03
By Geography
1,800
Europe
Japan
1,600
'04
20% per annum
composite growth
MW
• US…. New 30% Federal Tax Credit will drive
significant demand
• Feed-in-tariff introduced in Spain based on
German model … Italy debating adoption
• S.Korea … 20% capital subsidy and
72¢/kWh buyback program. Samsung,
Hyundai entering the game
North America
ROW
1,400
• China, Thailand pursuing ambitious targets
for Solar
40% per annum composite growth
1,200
• European demand grew 91% in 2004
1,000
800
Japan continues to grow without
subsidies since solar is competitive with
retail COE at $0.26/kWhr
600
400
200
0
'00
'01
'02
'03
'06
'07
'05
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Global solar resource
kWhr/m2
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U.S. solar resource
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Solar energy potential – U.S.
Solar resources in the U.S. can potentially supply a substantial portion of residential building
energy needs
U.S. Solar Resources
California:
• 2,190 kW-hr/m2-yr
solar irradiation
• 210 kW-hr/m2-yr
delivered AC
• 7,340 kW-hr/yr for 35m2
system (3500Wdc peak)
SOA, 14% PV Module
Southern California:
8,200 kW-hr/year electricity
usage for an average
single-family home
High
NY
CA
NV
IL
Low
NC
AZ
SC
NM
GA
TX
FL
Highlighted states have
growing trends in
population movement.
Housing demographics through the end of the decade show that 60% of new homes are being
built in Sunbelt states and states having good solar resources.
2.5 million new single-family homes per year, that can potentially be
fitted with PV roofing, by the end of the decade!
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Solar spectrum
UV
Visible
Infrared
AM1.5 Î 1000 W/m2
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Solar cell spectral response
How a solar cell works
1000 W/m2
2200 kW-hr/m2-year
Ir
92%
AR coating
p-n diode
junction
0.7 V
32 mA/cm 2
Io
It
n-Si
eh+
p-Si
77%
A
eh
+
A single junction silicon solar cell has a maximum entitlement
of 29%
Earthscan
Concept of a tandem cell is to optimize absorption of
specific
solar bands
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Solar cell types
Electrode (+)
Electrolyte Solution
Electrode (-)
Electric
Contacts
TCO/AR coating
Graded a-Si layer
mono, multi, or molded
Si substrate
Graded a-Si layer
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Silicon feedstock
• The solar industry now consumes 50% of the world’s supply of silicon feedstock
• Silicon feedstock spot price has risen 3x in the past year from $28/Kg to >$90/Kg
Thin film
A-Si, CdTe, CIGS
(7%)
80
Ribbon/sheet Si
(4%)
Shortfall in
silicon supply
over the next
three years will
constrain CAGR to
25%
70
1
Mono
crystalline Si
(33%)
Multi
crystalline Si
(56%)
Silicon Production (kMT)
60
50
%
45
–
GR
A
C
ge
era
v
4a
-’0
0
‘0
40
Total
Si
30
20
Silicon available for
solar industry
10
0
Silicon consumed
by semiconductor industry
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: CSFB Strategies Unlimited. Solar Buzz. GE Energy Solar Tech.
1 Solar silicon consumption discounted 5% per year for productivity gains
Silicon feedstock production is a high margin business … CM=50% at $40/kg (LTC Price)
On average 12 Metric Tons produces 1 MW of Solar Power = $4M of module revenue
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Semiconductor basics
Intrinsic Si crystalline structure
Optical absorption is governed by
the bandgap
Impurity doping of silicon
Silicon p-n junction
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Material characteristics that
determine solar cell
performance
200 micron wafer thickness
Efficiency dependence on resistivity
Thin film characteristics
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PV solar cell
1. Charge separation
2. Recombination loss
3. Transmission loss
4. Reflection and shading
Crystalline silicon solar cell
V = VD
I = -ID = =Io (eqV/(m x kT) –1)
Earthscan
p-n diode characteristic
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PV solar cell characteristics
V = VD
I = -ID = =Io (eqV/(m x kT) –1)
Solar Cell Terminal Voltage
V
V
Diode Voltage
VD
V
Temperature Voltage
kT
V
Solar Cell Terminal Current
I
A
Diode Current
ID
A
Saturation Current
Io
A
Photocurrent
Iph
A
Current through parallel R
Ip
A
Diode Factor
M
Coefficient of Photocurrent
Co
m2/V
Solar Irradiance
G
W/m2
Parallel Resistance
RP
Ohm
Series Resistance
RS
Ohm
Equivalent circuit diagram (dark)
V = VD
Iph = co X G
I = pph – ID
Earthscan
Equivalent
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diagram (light)
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Equivalent circuit
I = Iph – ID - IP
Ip = Vd/Rp =(V + I X Rs)/(Rp)
Fill Factor (FF) =
(VMPP x IMPP)/ (VOC x ISC) =
PMPP / VOC x ISC
FF = Area A / Area B
Earthscan
Single diode solar cell model
Area A
Area B
Solar cell characteristic and power curve
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Solar PV value chain
Silicon
Ingots/wafers
Cells/modules
Components
Installation/
Integration
Silicon wafer
casting
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Silicon solar cell process
Surface Texturing
- reduces surface reflection
- uniform ‘velvet’ surface
Belt Diffusion
Multicrystalline cell with
screen printed contacts
Continuous Contact Strip
Contact Print/Fire
Monocrystalline cells
with AR coatings
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Designer cell
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Dupont PV cell printing materials
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Silicon cell power losses
•Gridlines and busbars
influence shading
•Antireflection coating
influences reflection
•Wafer thickness influences
recombination
Practical (design influenced)
losses in a silicon
solar cell
A silicon solar cell has a theoretical top end efficiency of 29%
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PV module
String of 3, 3.4W 6-in x 6-in GE solar cells
GE 130W Module
(4x9 strings)
Strong dependence of
current on light intensity
Voltage has a weaker
dependence on light intensity
Voltage is more dependent on
temperature
Earthscan
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Silicon PV module packaging
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Dupont PV module materials
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Dupont PV module materials
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Silicon PV module reliability
DOE Solar Program Review Meeting, 2003
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Silicon cell performance projections
Ingots/Wafer thickness and Cell Efficiency
[μm]
320
320
300
270
15,0%
220
14,0%
14,5%
2003
2004
240
15,5%
200
16,0%
180
170
17,0%
16,5%
170
160
120
2005
2006
Ingots/Wafer thickness (μm)
2007
2008
2009
[Efficiency in %
20%
19%
17,5% 18%
17%
16%
15%
14%
13%
150
12%
11%
10%
2010
Cell efficiency (in percent)
Estimated Silicon consumption in g/Wp and
potential Module Production [MWp]
16
14
4.000
14,0
12,0
12
10
11,0
8
6
4
1.200
1.318
3.125
10,0
1.600
9,0
1.889
2.588
8,0
8,5
7,5
744
2
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
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4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
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Thin film technology
Yearly Energy Output per Unit Area (kW-hr/m2)
C-Si
‘A’
C-Si
‘B’
C-Si
‘C’
mc-Si
‘X’
mc-Si
‘Z’
CIS
a-Si
‘U”
a-Si
‘V’
CdTe
202
243
192
203
187
177
136
111
131
8-9%
6%
4-5%
7%
11-14%
9-12%
from J.A. del Cueto; NREL, 2003
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Thin film energy generation
Amorphous Si vs.
Crystalline Si module
Amorphous Si thin film device structure
- pin diode consists of three separate
thin a-Si films
- a thin conductive oxide on the glass
serves as a window
Earthscan
Amorphous Si vs. crystalline Si I-V characteristic
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NREL Technology Efficiency Map
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PV Characteristics
Parameter
Module Efficiency
2003 (2008)
Lifetime in Years
2003 (2008)
Stability
Thermal Coefficient
(% per 10 degrees C)
Environmental
Issues
2008 High-Volume,
Module
Manufacturing
Cost1
Other
Thin Films
Si Wafer
Mono x-Si
15% (16.5%)
25 (25)
Other
Organic
Poly x-Si
Molded Si
A-Si**
CdTe
CIGS
Sliver
13% (14.5%)
7% (11%)
6% (6.5%)
8% (10%)
9% (11.5%)
12% (15%*)
3 – 5% (4-5%)
25 (25)
25 (25)
20 (20)
20 (20)
15 (20)
Silicon/pack.
<1 (10)
-20%
None
None
silicon
UV, Chemical
Field Proven
Field Proven
Field Proven
>5%
>5%
>5%
-2%
-2%
-6%
-5%
-?%
No major
concerns
No major
concerns
No major
concerns
Silane
(mfg)
Cadmiun (Cd)
Perception
Se (Mfg),
Minimal Cd
No major
concerns
None known to
date
$2.60/W
Reaching
$2/Wp Limit
Reaching
$1.60/Wp
Limit
Quality vs.
Speed
Limited
$1.00/Wp Limit
with Fast
Process
$1.25/Wp Limit
with Slower
Process
$1.70/Wp Limit
Uses Less
Silicon
Low Efficiency
Results in $2.10
– 2.70/Wp Limit
Poor
Efficiency
limits
Potential
Issues:
• Sealing
• Long term
back contact
stability
• Flexible
• Issues:
Packaging
Complex proc.
Issues:
• Conductivity
• Scale-up
• Stability
Square cells
→ good area
fill factor
High
performanc
e cells >20%
Square cells
→ good area
fill factor.
Highest
performance
cells at 17%
Square cells.
Lowest cost
wafer molded
in place.
Seamless
back contact
module.
Issues:
• Scale up
• Sealing
• Long term
stability
Key
* Undemonstrated in 2008.
** Stabilized.
1 Includes labor, plant overhead, materials. Excludes corporate overhead (SG&A, R&D of ~1.25 factor). Data in 2003 $.
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Favorable
Neutral
Unfavorable
Navigant
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Solar Technology Technology
Bets are being made on solar cell technologies that can achieve the highest level of
performance while using the least amount of silicon
Generation 1
$0.20/W
Silicon wafers
- monocrystalline
- multicrystalline
- ribbon
$0.50/W
* Molded Silicon Wafer
$1.00/W
Generation 2
50
Next
Generation
Generation 3
Solar Efficiency (%)
Thin Films
- amorphous silicon
- cadmium telruride
- CIS, CIGS
- crystal Silicon Film
- organic
60
Tandem ideas, hot elect.
hot electron
10
Generation 2
5
* Nanostructured Solar Cell
40
30
20
15
GE
Nanaostructured
Solar Cell
GE Molded
Wafers
$1.50/W
$2.00/W
Single Junction Limit
Si Industry
Median
$3.00/W
Generation 1
Best Si
Commercial
Thin Film
Industry
Median
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Solar Cell Cost ($/m2)
Solar CellDue
Technology
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Molded Silicon Wafer
Novel, IP Protected Wafer Making Process
- Low Cost Direct Approach – no sawing
- Tolerant of impurities in the Feedstock
- Solar Cell Efficiency 2% below Cast
- Better Cost Structure ($/W)
R&D Presently Funded by Government ($10M)
- NIST ATP for Solar Grade Silicon
EBIC scan
showing
additional
current in
uppermost
layer
High Rate “Powder-to-Wafer” Production
- greater than 1 meter per minute
- capitalization less than $100K per MW (factor of ten)
Post-processing of Silicon Film
(creation of a high performance ‘denuded zone’ near the surface)
- DOE for Commercial Product Development
Wireless
Backplane
Laminate
Product demonstrations in the field
- after three years, no reported failures
OK Produce - Fresno, CA
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Nanostructured Solar Cells
Opportunity for breakthrough technology
Nanorod Array Architecture
Top,
Transparent
Contact
Metal
Nanoparticles
≥ 20µm
QuantumSplitting
Phosphors
300 nm
600 nm
Low Cost Substrate
(Glass, Metal Foil)
Dielectric Films
(SiOx, Si-N,
Polymer, etc.)
Bottom
Contact
Multi-Bandgap
Nanowire
Nanorod Density
≥ 1012/cm2
700 nm
350 nm
Quantum-Splitting Phosphor
Detail
Silicon Nanowire Project
Advantages
• Low (insignificant) material cost
• Multiple bandgaps for UV/IR absorption
• High mobility and lifetime
• Multiple absorption mechanisms
• Low defect density interfaces (heteroj)
• Integration with low cost substrates
• Roll-to-roll manufacturing
Si nanowires grown at GRC by low cost CVD techniques
Goal is 20% efficiency at thin film material cost
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Fluorescent Concentrator
Make PV roofing invisible to the customer
Silicon response
1. Plastic tile shape a match to
roofing material
2. Dyes incorporated into plastic
shift portion of solar spectrum
to better match silicon response
3. 6x concentrated light is
transferred to a single edge
reducing the area of silicon
needed
Project is run out of GRC-Munich with
support from the Bavarian government.
The technical goal in 2005 is to
demonstrate feasibility of a 5% total
system efficiency at a cost of $1.70/W or
less
Use of plastic materials and processes will allow reproduction of any roof style.
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Bifacial sliver solar cells
Solar cells produced by the anisotropic wet-etching of ‘grooves’ into a silicon wafer.
Increases power entitlement by up to 20x through increased surface area.
Grooves
wet-etched into
4–6 in. wafer
1–2
mm
Silicon Wafer
Heavy contact
diffusions
Base
contact
<100 µm
• Up to 1000 solar cells per wafer, each 50 microns in profile
• Up to 63 Watts per wafer vs. 3–4 Watts for standard silicon process
• Lowest silicon utilization in the industry (<2g/W)
Solar Windows
Illumination
Flexible Solar Roofing
Textured and
passivated emitter
Emitter contact
Slivers
1–2 mm
Silicon Sliver Illumination
50 µm
What’s the Difference?
GE 100W
Module
Sliver 90W
Module
Cost
Efficient
Module
Production
(< $1.70
per Watt)
vs.
Addresses Broadest
Array of Products
36, 6 in.
Solar Cells
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5, 6 in.
Solar Cells
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PV Building Integrated Technology
Commercially available, easily installable, integrated building elements are the keys to
success.
New PV technologies
that can Integrated
with other Building
elements (Windows,
Skylights, Roffs etc.)
High throughput, low
cost manufacturing
The Solaire-Battery Park City
•
•
•
•
• High
efficiency
• Flexible
• Rugged
One-of-a-kind custom designs
Complex installations with high material/ labor costs
Special handling and other installation issues
Poor aesthetics/integration
Integration into existing building elements
Solar
Windows
Solar
Skylights
Integrated building
elements for
commercial and
residential
projects
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Solar Roofing Products
• High LEEDS score for sustainability
• Ease of installation and low
commissioning cost
• Standard components
• Differentiating product
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GE Building Integrated Photovoltaics
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GE Building Integrated Photovoltaics
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Flexible Roofing
Frito-Lay Division of Pepsico reroofed with Solar Integrated Technologies’ SR2001 system on four
facilities in 2003. The 67,000 sq. ft. roof, atop their Distribution Center in Torrance, California, is
designed to generate a 100 kW, approximately 186,000 kilowatt hours per year of clean electricity.
Frito-Lay’s new solar electric roof is comprised of 1 1/2 inches of polyisocyanurate, 1/4 inch of
DenDeck, 60 mil Sarnafil single-ply membrane and 70 modules installed over an existing cap sheet,
built-up gravel roof. A wireless Ethernet monitoring system captures load information and evaluates
system performance
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PV Systems
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GE ENERGY SOLAR TECHNOLOGY
PV System
Basics
• Reclaimed mono c-Si wafers
• Sourced multi c–Si wafers, cells
• 25-30MW total capacity
• Cell, module, system sales
Solar cell
Multi-string
Inverter
Solar Module
• 5-in, 6-in mono c-Si
• GEPV-200, GEV-173
• 6-in multi c-Si
• GEPV-100/130
Energy Meter
(one-year)
• 3.6kVA, 94% inverter
Packaged Systems
California:
• 210 kW-hr/m2-yr
delivered AC
• GEPV-55 (Gecko)
• 7,340 kW-hr/yr for 35m2
system (3500Wdc peak)
U.S. Solar Resources
High
• 80% of avg. electricity
NY
CA
NV
IL
NC
AZ
SC
NM
GA
TX
FL
California:
• 2,190 kW-hr/m2-yr
solar irradiation
Low
Highlighted states have
growing trends in
population movement.
Hawaii:
There is only a 25% variation in insolation 3500W GE Installation at Ladera Ranch
43 /
most of the United Sates
• 2,490 kW-hr/m Project
-yr across
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solar irradiation
March 24, 2006
2
General
Electric
Proprietary
Information
General
Electric
PV Coursework
Zero Energy Home
GE is in the unique position of being able to provide all of the advanced technologies needed for the homes of the future.
GE’s Integrated
PV Roofing
provided in kit form and
pre-wired, can be easily
installed by standard
trades
GE’s Photovoltaic Panels
generate enough power for
peak-shifting (reduces peak
power to <1kW) and
blend in seamlessly
with roofing
GE’s Dimmable
Fluorescent/CFL
Lighting products
save energy today;
future solid state
(LED/OLED) lighting
products will operate
directly from DC PV
sources and save even
more energy.
Utility
Demand Side
Management
Objective
Met with
GE’s Energy Star
Appliance
lineup provide world
leadership energy
saving features
Ladera Range, CA
GE’s Energy Efficient
Mortgage provides a
GE’s High Reliability
Inverter supports multiple PV
financial incentive for investing
in a Zero-Energy Home
GE’s
GE’s Load
Scheduling
and Control.
array strings and can be in-wall
flush mounted
NRPS Digital Net Meter provides two-way communication with the utility
Project
Moon wirelessly
Technicalwith
Dueload
Diligence
and
interfaces
scheduling and control systems.
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Electric
Proprietary
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GE /
March 24, 2006
Cost of Electricity Roadmap
Installation
Wdc
system
Installation
Capital Cost $/
CM
$9
$/Wdc
$0.45
$8
$/Wdc w/rebates
$0.40
$7
CA COE
$0.35
$6
$5
NY COE
29.5%
margin
$0.30
CA COE w/rebates
NY COE w/ rebates
$0.25
$4
$0.20
$3
$0.15
$2
$0.10
$1
$0.05
$0.00
$0
2006
?
Future
inverter
BOS
<$4.50/W
module
CM
Balance of
System
Inverter
<$3.00/W
cell
CM
wafer
Wafer/Cell
silicon
Module
2006
?
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Electric
PV Coursework
Future
45 /
GE /
March 24, 2006
$/kWh
Cost of Electricity
$8.00/W Installed System Price
PV Residential Customer Value Story
Case Study: California Residential Installation
Current 2006 Process vs. Future GE Model
PV Component Costs
Customer Cost
?
$8.00/W
$4.25/W
$31,500.
$14,875.
$2,598.
$1,227.
$13,280.
$8,750.
15% CA Tax Rebate
$2,365.
$1,102.
Energy Bill Rebate
$2,000.
$2,000.
$13,388
$4.250
Cost of 3600W Sys
Sales Tax
CEC Rebate
GE Gecko installation at Ladera Ranch, CA
’05
Net System Cost
Monthly Payment
-$42.88
15 year, 6% NC lone
Energy Displacement.
$73.44
Tax Recovery @28%
$14.67
Payback
Cash Flow
11 Years
7 Years
+$44.85
Positive Cash Flow from Day 1
GE PV Community
Premier Homes, Sacramento, CA
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GE /
March 24, 2006
“Peak power at peak hours”
Project Moon Technical Due Diligence
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Electric
Proprietary
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General
Electric
PV Coursework
47 /
GE /
March 24, 2006
PV Eco-communities
Standardized, multifunctional building components make eco-communities possible,
which can have tremendous impacts on U.S. energy resources and security.
Everyone
Benefits
Architects:
Can easily spec. energy
system from widely
available commercial
products
Contractors/
Developers:
Easily installable
integrated building
products. Can claim tax
credits and has unique
discriminator for homes
Consumer:
Quality installation of
technologies that provide
long-term benefits.
Government:
Wide proliferation of
technologies that have
lasting positive impact
on U.S energy
use/security
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Electric
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GE /
March 24, 2006
Application Specific Module Packages
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Electric
PV Coursework
49 /
GE /
March 24, 2006
GE Building Integrated Products
Project Moon Technical Due Diligence
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Electric
PV Coursework
50 /
GE /
March 24, 2006