Streetbites from the media perspective An American invention: Venture capitalists! Streetbites from the media perspective Venture capitalists grow balance sheets that show promise! See textbook pages 5-6 for related content on this story. Videos for Module 3, Unit 1-of-2 (TOTAL: 9@84’10”) o Streetbite on venture capital (9:25) TD: Open book.pdf to chapter 3. Scroll backwards through the pages of end of chapter 2 answers to exercises and be sure students know these are here. Scroll back to the last example of chapter 2 on balance sheet dynamics: If NewRE = $30,000 then SE & Cash, the two residual line items on the balance sheet, “automatically” adjust so that the bottom line left equals bottom line right! Now in the TOC click to the Venture Capital streetbite. Year Number of companies Average per company ($ millions) Sum of venture capital financing ($ millions) 1 1,471 1.95 2,862 2 1,279 1.79 2,285 3 1,415 2.54 3,593 4 1,209 3.20 3,868 5 1,239 3.39 4,200 6 1,901 4.04 7,683 7 2,656 4.36 11,582 8 3,250 4.66 15,160 9 4,203 5.11 21,473 10 5,684 9.68 54,995 11 8,208 12.96 106,391 12 4,691 8.76 41,082 13 3,028 6.99 21,155 Sum and/or average 40,234 / 3,095 7.4 296,329 / 22,795 TABLE 3.3 Venture capital financing Source: National Venture Capital Association, www.nvca.org/ffax.html, Snapshot of a dozen years circa 2003. Lessons about the Structure of Finance 1. Venture capital firms take an equity stake in the company. That is, when the venture capitalist lends money they actually purchase shares directly from the company. The venture capitalist is not pursuing a fixed interest rate of return. Instead, they expect the stockholders equity and hence the stock price eventually to rise in value. 2. The company may have reached its debt capacity as far as bank loans go, yet venture capital still may be available. Banks tend to rely on historical records for lending decisions, whereas venture capitalists look toward the future. “Seed investing” occurs for companies that are at very early stages before there is a real product. Venture capitalists also invest in rapidly growing companies in their “expansion stage.” And sometimes venture capitalists invest in “later stage” companies that are on the verge of going public. In rare occasions, too, venture capitalists may invest in companies that already are publicly traded. 3. Venture capitalists are activists. They use their experience to help managers of growing companies make sound decisions about strategic marketing, planning, and development. Venture capitalists are like farmers who love to grow successful companies. They are entrepreneurs first and financiers second. 4. Venture capitalists grow the company but eventually intend to liquidate their equity stake. The average venture capital investment lasts between 4 and 7 years. The different ways that the venture capitalist liquidates the investment include: (a) the venture capitalist sells the stock back to the company at a negotiated repurchase price; (b) the company is taken-over or merges with an established company and the venture capitalist swaps their equity for cash or acquiring-company stock; (c) the company goes public and the venture capitalist sells their equity through an IPO; (d) the company goes bankrupt or reorganizes and the venture capitalist’s stock becomes worthless. Number of U.S. Number of ventureU.S. IPOs backed IPOs -1-2- Year Average venture-backed offer size ($ millions) -3- Average venturebacked postoffer value ($ millions) -4- 1 537 131 35.9 159.1 2 329 75 48.3 224.5 3 480 233 76.4 493.0 4 354 226 93.3 470.5 5 88 35 82.6 383.4 6 94 22 86.8 373.6 Sum and/or average 1,882 722 70.6 350.7 TABLE 3.4 Venture-backed initial public offerings Source: National Venture Capital Association, www.nvca.org , Circa 2003. About 38% of all companies going public received venture capital financing before the IPO. Lessons about the Structure of Finance Column 3, “offer size”, is the amount of financing that the company raises by selling stock during the IPO. Column 4, “post offer value”, is the amount the stock is worth one-day later in secondary market trading. The huge gap between offer size and post offer value suggests that venture capitalists grow companies in which public markets have a lot of interest. The gap suggests, too, that these companies underprice their stock during the IPO and leave a lot of money on the table! Other important non-bank sources of financing for young companies include the Small Business Administration (read about “small business investment companies” at www.sba.gov/INV/overview.html) and angel investors. http://www.birminghamangels.com/ for example) Lessons about the Structure of Finance Chapter 3, Unit 1 of 2 Forecast financing needs and growth Lessons about the Structure of Finance Find how to forecast financing needs, discover ratios that push the flows this way and that way. See textbook pages 108-123 for readings relevant to this unit. Videos for Module 3, Unit 1-of-2 (TOTAL: 9@84’10”) o Streetbite on venture capital (9:25) o Forecasting surpluses or deficits with cash (9:08) o Motivation and example for balance sheet forecasting (12:03) [Example 2] o EFN focuses on changes in TA and (TL + SE) (7:54) [EFN5a] o EFN with a target asset turnover (9:46) [EFN6] o Natural growth rate dynamics - overview (3:48) o Natural growth rate dynamics - g_internal (12:58) o The internal growth rate and ROR (9:55) [GR2b] o EFN with a target profit margin (9:13) [EFN2bm] Discussion from the textbook BA4am Find 2nd year’s cash flow in two-period venture capitalist model The Company balance sheet for year 2525 shows Total assets of $3,300 financed by Debt of $600 and Stockholders’ equity of $2,700 . There are 190 shares outstanding at year-end 2525. The company plans to obtain venture capital by selling 80 additional shares at their current book value to a venture capitalist. The company agrees to repurchase the shares at year-end 2527 at a price equal to 138% of that year’s book value. For year 2526 the company forecasts sales of $17,820 , a net profit margin (= net income sales) of 7.40%, and a dividend payout ratio (= dividends net income) of 20%. Assume debt remains unchanged. For year 2527, sales should be higher by 15% but the net profit margin and payout ratio should remain constant. Also, assume that debt remains unchanged. How much total cash flow (dividends plus repurchase price) does the venture capitalist receive at year-end 2527? ANSWER: A ; CLUES: Net Income2526 = $1,319 ; Venture financing2525 = $1,137 ; repurchase price = $31.20 a. $2,586 b. $2,351 c. $1,943 d. $1,766 e. $2,137 Lessons about the Structure of Finance Growth is just like many other phenomena: there can be too much as well as too little. The table below illustrates that company growth rates vary widely. Corporation Name AOL-Time Warner, Inc. AT&T Corporation Exxon Mobil Corporation Ford Motor Company General Electric Company General Motors Corp. IBM Microsoft Corporation Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Walt Disney Company %∆ Total assets 93% 67 %∆ %∆ %∆ %∆ Annual net dividend stock sales income / share price 46% 66% 0% 102% 7 -2 0 -8 2 -1 -4 3 -9 18 3 8 n.a. 7 15 9 1 53 25 4 12 3 4 24 16 4 6 9 10 40 21 -15 15 8 9 0 22 7 23 6 35 33 41 -21 TABLE 3.1 Growth rates for selected variables of American corporate icons. Each number is the annual average percentage change in the respective variable for a three year historical snapshot. DEFINITION 3.1 Surplus and shortfall Management should forecast future financing needs long before funds are needed. When forecast sources of funds forecast uses of funds surplus then the company expects a . deficit or shortfall When the company forecasts a surplus then management is in the fortunate position of debating prudent uses of surplus funds. Conversely, when the company faces an expected shortfall then management must take strategic action to avoid financial misfortune. Lessons about the Structure of Finance Section 1. Financial forecasting 1.A. Cash budgeting Frequency of cash budget determines discriminatory power for finding surplus or shortfall (e.g., monthly cash budget cannot find weekly shortfalls) FF30 nxq FF30 Cash budgeting discriminatory power for frequency True or false: A monthly cash budget can determine whether the company expects a surplus or deficit for the entire month but is incapable of determining external financing needs during any particular week. a. True b. False FORMULA 3.1 External financing needs EFN is a positive number when expected uses of cash exceed expected sources. expected External expected Total liab ilities Financing Total assets & Stockholders' Needs equity When EFN is positive, there are insufficient funds to finance the company’s expected assets and the company should arrange additional financing to cover the shortfall. A negative EFN, conversely, implies a surplus — the company expects to have more than enough financing to support expected assets. EFN1b Static EFN with average age of inventory change; word choices EXAMPLE 2 Find EFN in a static setting Suppose a company’s balance sheet looks as follows: Cash Inventory PP&E Total Assets Company Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities $ 100 $ 200 Current Liabilities 400 350 Long term Debt 500 450 Stockholders’ Equity $1,000 $1,000 Total Liabilities & Equity Also suppose that Sales equal $2,500 and that Cost-of-goods sold equal $1,875. The company realizes that if they cut by 30 days the length of time that inventory stays on the shelf before sold, and all else remains the same, the company reduces the amount of inventory required. If the company proceeds with this inventory policy change, what is the effect on external financing needs? Lessons about the Structure of Finance SOLUTION The definition from table 2.5 for the “average age of inventory” is: average 365 x ( Balance Sheet Inventory) age of inventory ( AnnualCost of goodssold ) 365 x $400 $1,875 77.8 days Reducing by 30 the number of days that inventory remains on the shelf lowers the average age of inventory to 47.8 days. Set average age of inventory to 47.8 and hold cost-of-goods-sold the same as before at $1,875. Solve for the new balance sheet Inventory as: 47.8 days 365 x ( Balance Sheet Inventory) $1,875 Balance Sheet Inventory $245 The balance sheet after the policy change lists Inventory at $245. The original balance sheet lists Inventory at $400. This policy change decreases the amount of inventory that the company keeps on hand. So far, we deduce the following: Forecast Company Balance Sheet (Preliminary) Assets Liabilities Cash $ 100 $ 200 Current Liabilities Inventory 245 350 Long term Debt PP&E 500 450 Stockholders’ Equity Total $845 $1,000 Total Liabilities & Equity Assets Note that the above bottom-lines cannot remain unequal even for a second! expected External expected Total liab ilities Financing Needs Total assets & Stockholder' s equity = $845 $1,000 = $155 Lessons about the Structure of Finance EFN < 0 means surplus!! What the final balance sheet looks like depends on how the surplus is used! Increase assets to 1000 or decrease liabilities to 845, what to do? Add one more fact to make this problem: EFN1b Static EFN with average age of inventory change; word choices Company sales equal $48,000 for the year ending December 31, the costs-of-goods sold (cgs) equal 80% of sales, and the inventory was replaced about every 76 days (inventory turnover in days = 365 inventory turnover ratio; inventory turnover ratio = annual cgs Inventory balance). The Company is considering a change in their inventory ordering policy. As a result, they believe that sales would remain constant in the forthcoming year, yet the length of time that inventory stays on the shelf would change by 38 days (shelf time increases). If the financing rate for inventories is 16% per year, what is the effect on their annual inventory financing costs? { CLUES: Inventory original = 7996 ; Inventory new = 11993} a. The policy change results in additional annual costs of $556 b. The policy change results in additional annual savings of $640 c. The policy change results in additional annual costs of $736 d. The policy change results in additional annual savings of $736 e. The policy change results in additional annual costs of $640 B2. Forecasting external financing needs when internal financing is available Given the sales forecast, the basic procedure for finding EFN is given below: (1) Forecast the Total assets required for sustaining desired future sales. Most likely, use a financial ratio to link future sales with specific asset categories and then estimate Total assets. (2) Forecast the future Total liabilities & Stockholders’ equity that you expect to accumulate. There are 3 reasons these might change from current values: a. Some liabilities such as Payables often increase spontaneously and proportionately with Sales b. Stockholders’ equity increases because expected Sales creates New retained earnings c. Pre-commitments might cause Notes and Long term debt to change. Otherwise, these should remain constant for forecasting. (3) Compute EFN as the difference between expected Total assets from step 1 and expected Total liabilities & Stockholders’ equity from step 2. A summary formula for this general procedure is: FORMULA 3.2 External financing needs, concise version Let ΔA equal the change in Total assets (that is, At – At-1 ) expected throughout the next period, let ΔL equal the forecast change in spontaneous liabilities, and let Rt equal the forecast internal financing from New retained earnings. The company must arrange for financing during period t equal to EFNt, where: EFNt = ΔA – ΔL – Rt Lessons about the Structure of Finance EFN2bm Find EFN given sales growth and changing net profit margin Find below the Company’s financial statements for year 2525. $375 $870 $3,000 $4,245 Balance Sheet, 12/31/2525 Income, 1/1 – 12/31/2525 Cash & securities $715 Current liabilities Sales $25,500 Inventory $1,230 Debt total costs $25,200 PP&E $2,300 Stockholders’ equity net income $300 Total assets $4,245 dividends $170 new retained earnings $130 For 2526 the company plans 12.70% sales growth. They plan to hold constant the asset turnover (salestotal assets) and payout ratio (=dividendsnet income). They plan to increase Current Liabilities spontaneously with sales, while holding Debt constant. Suppose the company decides to institute cost-cutting measures that should increase the net profit margin (=net income sales) by 2.20% above its value of year 2525. Given the above plan, how much external financing is needed for year 2526? ANSWER: A ; CLUES: Net Income2526 = $970 a. $28 b. $25 c. $23 d. $19 e. $21 Lessons about the Structure of Finance PANEL A: Status Quo for year 2525 Balance Sheet, 12/31/2525 Income Statement, 1/1 to 12/31/2525 400 Debt (D) Sales $3,000 . 600 Equity (SE) total expenses 2,850 Total (A) $1,000 Liabilities & Net Income 150 $1,000 Equity Dividends 60 New Retained Earnings (R) 90 PANEL D: End-of-year financial ratios 12/31/2525 12/31/2526 status quo growth @ ginternal asset turnover ratio: (sales total assets) 12/31/2526 growth @ gsustainable net profit margin: (net income sales) payout ratio: (dividends net income) debt-to-equity ratio: (debt Stockholders’ equity) TABLE 3.2 Natural growth rate dynamics FORMULA 3.3 The internal growth rate A company with constant asset turnover ratio, net profit margin, and dividend payout ratio that relies exclusively on internal financing grows at the “internal growth rate”: g internal Rt At Rt (retention ratio)(ROA) 1 (retention ratio)(ROA) (retention ratio)(ROA) when ROA when ROA Net income t Total assets t Net income t Total assets t1 The variables R and A denote New retained earnings and Total assets, respectively. The “ROA” is the return-on-assets. Lessons about the Structure of Finance Derivation of formula 3.3 assumes that the following ratios are constant: asset turnover ratio; net profit margin; and dividend payout ratio. PANEL B: Effect on year 2526 of growth at rate ginternal Balance Sheet, 12/31/2526 Income Statement, 1/1 to 12/31/2526 400 Debt (D) Sales . Equity (SE) total expenses Total (A) Liabilities & Net Income Equity Dividends New Retained Earnings (R) GR4 Find TA next year given components for ginternal Find below the company’s income statement. Income, 1/1 - 12/31/2525 Sales $20,000 Total costs $18,900 Net income $1,100 Dividends $460 New retained earnings $640 Total assets at 12/31/2525 equal $3,770 . If the company is growing at their internal growth rate, what are Total assets at 12/31/2526? a. $6,044 b. $4,541 c. $5,494 d. $4,995 e. $4,128 EXERCISES 3.2 8. Find below the Company’s financial statements for year 2525. Balance Sheet, 12/31/2525 $360 Current assets $960 Debt $2,500 PP&E $1,900 Stockholders’ equity $2,860 Total assets $2,860 Income, 1/1 – 12/31/2525 Sales $13,200 total costs $12,600 Net income $600 Dividends $220 New retained earnings $380 For 2526 the asset turnover (=SalesTotal assets), net profit margin (=Net income Sales), payout ratio (=DividendsNet income) and price-to-earnings ratio (now 14.3) will be constant. The number of shares outstanding is 100. The firm seeks maximum growth by relying exclusively on retained earnings; external financing will be zero. For the shareholder that buys a share at year-end 2525 and holds the stock through year-end 2526, what is the rate of return? ©GR2a,b ANSWER: We find the rate of return to equity as the increase in market capitalization plus total dividends (the rate of return to one share is identical to the rate of return to all equity; this approach works when no shares are issued). Market capitalization at year-end 2525 equals $8,580 (= 14.3 x $600). Apply formula 3.3a and find that ginternal equals 15.32% (= $380 / ($2,860 – $380)). Because of constant ratios Lessons about the Structure of Finance find that Net income2526 equals $692 (= $600 x (1 + .1532)). Market capitalization at year-end 2526 becomes $9,895 (= 14.3 x $692). Dividends2526 equals $254 (= $220 x (1 + .1532)). The stockholder rate of return therefore equals 18.28% (= ($9,895 + $254 – $8,580 ) / $8,580)). Lessons about the Structure of Finance