An Assessment of the
State’s Labor Force
Demand and Supply
2007 – 2017

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Background for the report
Share data from the report
Gain your input on policy focus areas and implications
– How should our state respond to the findings in terms of future policy development and state-level action?

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Led by the Commission’s Policy Research and
Assessment Committee (PRAC)
Commissioned quantitative research of the state’s workforce and economic conditions
– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce
– Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
Utilized multiple data sources
Validated data across multiple stakeholders prior to writing report

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Analyze labor market demand and supply trends and forecasts 2007-2017
Determine the appropriate geographic units for study
Assess education and workforce system gaps in meeting labor market demand
Identify most critical policy challenges and opportunities

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2007-17 labor market demand and supply projections for NC and subregions
Key issues likely to arise IF current trends continue and no major economic shifts occur
Provides facts to help guide policy choices

The Project Authors
John P. Metcalf - Sr. Partner Community Strategic Planning
CSW is a national private non-profit consulting firm based in Ann
Arbor, Michigan, founded in 1991 ( www.skilledwork.org
)
Mission: Re-imagine everything about work and learning in the global economy to have a competitive workforce advantage.
Dr. Kenneth Poole
– President, Center for Regional
Economic Competitiveness
CREC is a national non-profit affiliated with George Mason
University and ACCRA —the Council for Community &
Economic Research based in Arlington, Virginia, established in
2000 ( www.creconline.org
)
Mission: Promote knowledge-based regional economic development efforts

1.
2.
3.
4.
Traditional manufacturing continues to shed jobs as part of an on-going economic transition
Traditional “middle jobs” — those that paid a family-sustaining wage and required minimal formal education or training — are disappearing as part of this transition
New job creation is concentrating in certain fast-growing metropolitan areas
Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering from the economic transformation

5.
6.
7.
8.
Future prosperity depends on achieving higher educational attainment levels for all citizens
Impending baby-boom retirements will exacerbate an emerging skills gap among experienced, skilled workers
High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but not all, of this skills gap
Low-skill in-migrants present both opportunities and challenges in meeting the state’s workforce needs

Facts and Figures That
Support The Trends

2005 Population Estimates
Piedmont: 5.3 million
Coast: 2.4 million
Mountains: 1.1 million
*Source: Estimate based on 2000
Census and 2004 data from AGS
Demographics
1
26
40
2
3
77
4
85
5
40
6
85
7
8
95
40
10
9
95
11
12
3
4
1
2
5
6
Asheville
Hickory
Charlotte
Winston-Salem
Greensboro
Durham
7
8
9
10
11
12
Raleigh
Fayetteville
Rocky Mount
Wilmington
Greenville
New Bern
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
0
Miles
70
Mountain region
Piedmont region
Coastal region

The Golden Crescent Provides The State’s Economic Engine
Metropolitan and Micropolitan Areas
(est. 2007)
Winston-Salem, NC
Greensboro-
High Point, NC
Durham, NC
Burlington, NC
Rocky Mount, NC
Raleigh-Cary, NC
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-
Newport News, VA-NC
Hickory-Morganton-
Lenoir, NC
Asheville, NC
600K
200K
50K
Industry Employment
Source: Regional Dynamics
Charlotte-Gastonia-
Concord, NC-SC
Fayetteville, NC
Goldsboro, NC
Greenville, NC
Jacksonville, NC
Wilmington, NC
Metropolitan Area
*Employment for North Carolina counties only
**Only metropolitan areas identified
Micropolitan Area
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

Projected Population Growth, 2007 to 2017
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
7.8%
U.S.
10.2%
3.9%
14.5%
2.3%
4.4%
7.3%
17.5%
7.0%
North
Carolina
Advantage
West
Charlotte Eastern
Region
Northeast
Source: AGS Demographics
Piedmont
Triad
Research
Triangle
Southeast

The State’s Traditional Manufacturing Industries
Will Likely Shed More Workers
NC Industry
Tobacco Processing
Textiles
Apparel
Furniture and Wood Products
Select Traditional Industries
Source: Regional Dynamics
2007
8,189
74,617
26,152
99,121
208,079
2017
5,218
47,670
10,661
107,520
171,070
Emp. Change
2007-17 % Change
-2,970
-26,947
-36%
-36%
-15,491
8,399
-37,010
-59%
8%
-18%
These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs

NC’s Industry Employment Trends
Natural Resources and Minerals
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Transportation & Utilities
Information
FIRE
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Government
2007
2017
Projected Employment*
2007 = 5,152,000
2017 = 5,851,000
0% 2%
*Includes Pvt, Farm, Govt & Proprietors
4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Percent of Total Industry Employment

1%
0%
-1%
4%
3%
2%
Disadvantaged Regions Are Growing Slower
Than The Rest Of The State
Labor Force Growth and Employment Growth,
2000 to 2005
Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005
7%
6%
5.1%
6.4%
North Carolina
Metro
Micro
Rural
4.7% 5%
3.4%
1.5%
2.9%
1.8%
-0.1%
Labor Force Growth 2000 to 2005 Employment Growth 2000 to 2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Region
United States
North Carolina
METRO Area Counties
MICRO Area Counties
RURAL Area Counties
NC Mountains
NC Piedmont
NC Coast
Source: Regional Dynamics
Total Est.
Employment 2007
179,670,548
5,152,411
Est. Net New
Employment 2007-17
30,284,512
698,247
Average Earnings
2007
$44,815
$39,953
3,840,922
969,766
341,723
570,821
3,290,455
1,291,135
573,283
91,029
33,934
70,917
474,831
152,498
$42,784
$32,836
$27,944
$31,561
$43,075
$35,706

North Carolina
Educational Band
Advanced Degree
4-year College Degree
Tech-Some Post
GED Some Experience
GED/Entry
Below GED
Total
Source: Regional Dynamics
“Success Favors The Prepared Mind”
NTHS
NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required
Education (Est. 2007 and 2017)
Emp 2007
160,572
687,536
386,614
801,703
1,263,563
1,732,747
5,032,734
Net New Jobs
(07-17)
36,560
134,808
89,452
58,980
88,085
276,598
684,484
Average Earnings
2007
$83,785
$77,005
$46,774
$42,952
$34,123
$24,405
$40,598
% Total Emp
(2007)
3.2%
13.7%
7.7%
15.9%
25.1%
34.4%
100.0%
% New Jobs
(07-17)
5.3%
19.7%
13.1%
8.6%
12.9%
40.4%
100.0%

35%
Educational Attainment In the US and North Carolina (est. 2007)
Total Population
30%
US
NC
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Advanced Degree 4 Year Degree Associate degree Some college, no degree
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics
High school graduate/GED
Less Than HS
Diploma

A Divide In the Economy and the Labor Force
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
USA
NC
Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017
‘New Middle’
Jobs
‘Disappearing’
Traditional Middle Jobs
0%
Advanced
Degree
4-year College
Degree
Tech-Some Post GED Some
Experience
NC Net New Jobs Total = 690K
Education Band
GED/Entry Below GED

In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges & Opportunities
Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill 10,091
Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill 2,194
Asheville
Goldsboro
Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir
71
45
558
Rocky Mount
Wilmington
-143
-393
Fayetteville
Greensboro-Winston-Salem-
High Point
Greenville
-462
-946
-1,157
Source: US Census Bureau
-3,000 -1,500 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000
Net Number of Young, Single, College Educated In-migrants (1995-2000)

In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges & Opportunities
Hispanic Population
Density, 1990

In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges & Opportunities
Hispanic Population
Density, 2000

Changes in Workforce Demands
To Replace Retiring Work ers
To Fill Projected Net New Jobs
Total Change in Workforce Demand
Changes in Workforce Supply
New Young NC Talent
In-Migrants, aged 18-54 (assuming all join labor mark et)
Total Change in Workforce Supply
Annual Talent Shortage*
Annual Number
*Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census Bureau,
UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to
2017 Regional Dynamics
60,795
69,825
130,620
91,253
26,760
118,013
-12,607

State of the North
Carolina Workforce

As you listened to the report’s trends, reviewed the policy focus areas and related policy implications and questions:
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What is your reaction to the policy implications and questions of the six focus areas?
Within each focus area, are there specific policy issues you think we should address or emphasize?
Have we missed anything you consider a significant policy issue?
Your thoughts and opinions!!!

 PRAC forms four (4) policy workgroups to develop policy recommendations for the Commission’s and
Governor’s consideration based on report and forum feedback
– Coordination of the policy workgroups
 Gain stakeholder input
 Refine policy questions
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Develop potential policy solutions
Delivery recommendations to the Commission by July

The Policy Workgroups’ Focus
 Valuing Education and Life-long learning
– improving educational attainment
 Changing Industry
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– Middle Jobs Loss (grow sectors and sector strategies)
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Geographic Disparities
Vast Despair of the Coastal and Mountain Regions Compared to the
Piedmont (overcoming the two North Carolinas)
Rural, small town, and urban
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Changing Workforce Demographics baby boomer retirements and in-migration of low-skilled workers)
PowerPoint on www.nccommerce.com

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Paul Combs
– Chair of the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee
– combsjp@bellsouth.net
Heidi Stieber
–
–
–
–
Staff for the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee hstieber@nccommerce.com
– 919.715.6658
John Metcalf
– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce (CSW) jmetcalf@skilledwork.org
704-814-8999
Ken Poole
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–
Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness (CREC) kpoole@c2er.org
703-522-4980, ext. 16