Collaborative Design & Development of Petroleum Sector Performance Indicators (PSI) A research project of the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) (January 2007) PSI Purpose & Objectives • Find common language for policy debate • Create capacity for factbased discourse • Integrate multiple and disparate data sources • Reflect multiplicity of dimensions: supply, demand, efficiency, trade, prices, carbon emissions • Find key measures of sector performance • Provide perspective: – – – – For U.S. and World Reserves & production GDP and economics Structure of markets • Track transportation sector performance: fuels & alternatives PSI Drivers – Undefined political terminology: • ‘energy independence” “oil addiction” – Inadequate measures of performance: • “reduce imports from volatile Middle-east” – Highly complex market structure • Physical trade a fraction of total trade – Dispersed and variably accessible data: • EIA, IEA, private industry – Fragmented and non-comparable data: • On global fuel economy, alternative vehicles and fuels Roots of Energy Independence Policies • “Let us unite in a major new endeavor that in this bicentennial era we can appropriately call ‘Project Independence.” Richard M. Nixon, 7 November 1973 • “We must wage a simultaneous three-front campaign against recession, inflation and energy dependence.” Gerald Ford, 13 January 1975 • “Our decision about energy will test the character of the American people, and the ability of the President to govern this nation. This effort will b the moral equivalent of war.” Jimmy Carter, 18 April 1977 Supply • Over 100 nations produce oil • Over 80 nations export oil • Estimates of NOC-controlled proved reserves range from 60% to 90% • Surplus world production capacity in 2006 remains exclusive to Saudi Arabia World Energy Production Quadrillion BTU 400 Other Hydro Nuclear 1% 6% 6% 3% Natural Gas Liquids 300 36% Crude Oil 200 24% Natural Gas 100 24% Coal 0 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, 2003 Global Proved Reserves (Top 30 = 1.2 Trillion Barrels) Exxon/Mobil 1.0% Europe NOCs 1.0% BP 0.9% Chevron 0.9% ConocoPhillips 0.6% Shell 0.5% Asia NOCs 2.1% Africa NOCs 6.6% Russia NOCs 6.8% Investor owned oil reserves are roughly 4% of global total Saudi Arabia 25.0% Latin America NOCs 9.8% Oman 0.3% Qatar 1.4% Iran 13.1% UAE 9.3% Kuwait 9.7% Iraq 10.9% Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006. http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390 World Crude Oil Production 90 80 Million Barrels per Day Other 70 Russia 60 Asia 50 South America Canada/Mexico 40 United States 30 Europe Africa 20 Persian Gulf 10 1970 Note: Includes condensates. 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: EIA International Petroleum Monthly, World Oil Production. http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html World Crude Oil Production (2005 World Total=78.3 MMB/D) Egypt 1% India 1% Ecuador 1% Colombia 1% Australia 1% Syria 0% Gabon 0% Argentina Malaysia 1% 1% Other 8% Saudi Arabia 12% Oman 1% Qatar 1% Indonesia 1% Angola 2% Russia 12% Libya Brazil 2% 2% States 7% UK 2% Algeria 2% North Sea 6% Iraq 2% UAE 3% Canada 3% Kuwait 3% Venezuela 3% Nigeria Norway 3% 3% Mexico 4% China 5% Iran 5% Note: Includes condensates. Source: EIA International Energy Outlook, 2006 http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html World Oil Surplus Production Capacity 6.0 Million Barrels per Day 5.0 4.0 Other OPEC Iran 3.0 Venezuela Kuwait 2.0 United Arab Emirates Iraq 1.0 Saudi Arabia 0.0 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2006 U.S. Crude Oil Production and Campbell’s Forecasts of Production 7,000 Actual 6,000 5,000 1996 Forecast 4,000 1991 Forecast 3,000 2,000 1,000 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0 1990 Thousand Barrels/Day 8,000 Source: USGS, McCabe, 2005 World Crude Oil Replenishment 1189 Billion Barrels 1,200 949 1,000 800 600 U.S. 400 World 200 21 68 155 29 0 1947 Reserves 1948-04 Production 2005 Reserves Source: EIA Petroleum Navigator, Crude Oil Production and Crude Oil Proved Reserves; University of Texas-Austin, Center for Energy Economics. World Crude Oil Distillation Capacity Million Barrels per Day 90 80 China 70 India 60 Asia & Oceania 50 Eurasia Middle East 40 Africa 30 Central & South America 20 Europe 10 North America 0 Source: EIA International Energy Annual, World Petroleum Data. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iea2004/table36.xls World Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (2006) Australia 1% Thailand 1% Egypt Turkey 1% 1% United Arab Emirates 1% Belgium 1% Ukraine 1% Kuwait 1% All Other 18% United States 20% China 7% Indonesia 1% Taiwan 1% Netherlands 1% Russia 6% Japan 5% Spain 1% India Italy 3% 3% Venezuela 2% Singapore 2% Iran 2% Mexico 2% Brazil 2% United Kingdom France 2% 2% Korea, South 3% Germany 3% Saudi Arabia Canada 2% 2% Source: EIA International Energy Annual, World Petroleum Data. http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iea2004/table36.xls Oil Consumption • • • • • • • World consumption: 84 million barrels/day U.S. consumption: 21 million barrels/day U.S. oil expenditures: ~$800 billion/year U.S. oil expenditures: 3% of GDP Global trade in oil: ~50 million barrels/day Value of U.S. imports: ~$250 billion/year U.S. oil imports: ~34% of trade imbalance Million Barrels per Day World Crude Oil Consumption 90 India 80 China 70 Asia & Oceania Ex China, India Africa 60 50 Eurasia 40 20 Central & South America Middle East 10 Europe 30 0 North America Sources: 1970-1979: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Database; 1980-2004: EIA International Petroleum Monthly http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls Crude Oil Trade Movements (Imports) 60 Million Barrels per Day 50 Rest of World 40 Europe USA 30 Japan 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006. http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390 Crude Oil Trade Movements (Exports) 60 USA 50 Million Barrels per Day Rest of World Europe* 40 Mexico Canada Asia Pacific 30 North Africa West Africa South & Central America 20 Former Soviet Union Middle East 10 0 1980 1985 * - European export data not available prior to 1993. 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006. http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6842&contentId=7021390 Petroleum Imports • U.S. imports: 13.7 million barrels/day • U.S. imports rose by 2.2 million barrels/day between 2002 and 2005 • In same period, Chinese imports rose by 1.8 million barrels/day, and • Indian imports rose by 0.45 million barrels/day U.S. Dependence on Oil Imports (As Percentage of Total Oil Consumption) Nixon Administration (1974) Ford Administration (1976) Carter Administration (1980) Reagan Administration (1988) Bush Administration (1992) Clinton Administration (2000) Bush Administration (2005) 37% 42% 41% 43% 46% 58% 66% Sources: EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.xls; EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Product Supplied for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_cons_psup_dc_nus_mbblpd_a.xls. U.S. Oil Imports by Source (2005) Indonesia Libya Qatar 0% UAE 0% 0% 0% All Other Non-OPEC 11% Argentina Netherlands 1% Colombia Canada 1% 16% Brazil 1% 1% Norway 2% Kuwait 2% Mexico Ecuador 12% 2% U.S. Virgin Islands 2% United Kingdom 3% Russia 3% Angola 3% Saudi Arabia 11% Algeria 3% Iraq 4% Nigeria 8% Venezuela 11% Source: U.S. Imports by Country of Origin, EIA Petroleum Navigator U.S. Oil Imports by Source 16.0 Eurasia Million Barrels per Day 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 Asia & Oceania Africa Middle East 6.0 4.0 Central & South America 2.0 North America 0.0 Europe Source: EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Imports by Country of Origin, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm U.S. Petroleum Product Imports by Source 4.0 Million Barrels per Day 3.5 Eurasia 3.0 Asia & Oceania 2.5 Europe 2.0 North America Central & South America 1.5 Africa 1.0 Middle East 0.5 0.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: EIA Petroleum Navigator, U.S. Petroleum Products Imports by Country of Origin, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/xls/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_EPP0_im0_mbblpd_a.xls Million Barrels per Day U.S. Imports of Petroleum Products by Type 4.0 Asphalt and Road Oil 3.5 Jet Fuel 3.0 2.5 Liquified Petroleum Gases Other Products 2.0 Residual Fuel Oil 1.5 Unfinished Oils 1.0 0.5 Motor Gasoline Blending Components Motor Gasoline 0.0 Distillate Fuel Oil Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, Petroleum Imports by Type, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/stb0503.xls Petroleum Trade Values • • • • Global Trade in oil: ~50 million barrels/day Value of global trade: ~$1 trillion/year Value of U.S. oil trade: $250 billion Oil share of U.S. trade imbalance: 34% U.S. Import and Export Trade Values 1,800 1,600 Billion Nominal Dollars 1,400 1,200 Petroleum Exports 1,000 Petroleum Imports Total Merchandise Exports 800 Total Merchandise Imports 600 400 200 0 1974 1980 1986 1992 Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, petroleum preparations, liquefied propane and butane, and other mineral fuels. 1998 2004 Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, Merchandise Trade Value. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/overview.html U.S. Trade Balances 100 0 Billion Nominal Dollars -100 -200 Petroleum Balance -300 Non-Energy Balance -400 Total Merchandise Balance -500 -600 -700 -800 1974 1980 1986 Note: Petroleum includes crude oil, petroleum preparations, liquefied propane and butane, and other mineral fuels. 1992 1998 2004 Source: EIA Monthly Energy Review, Merchandise Trade Value. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/overview.html 1.40 10% 1.20 9% 8% 1.00 7% 6% 5% 0.80 0.60 4% 3% 0.40 2% 1% 0.20 0.00 1970 Percent of GDP Billion 2000$ / Day U.S. Oil Expenditures 0% 1975 1980 Oil Expenditures 1985 1990 1995 2000 Oil Expenditures as % of GDP Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005 Gasoline Share of Total U.S. Consumption Expenditures 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Source: NIPA Intensity of Oil Consumption • U.S. oil consumption per unit of GDP declined by 42% between 1980 and 2004 • EU-15 oil consumption/GDP declined by 39% in the same period • U.S. per capita oil consumption decreased by 5.5% between 1980 and 2004 • EU-15 per capital oil consumption decreased by 4.2% in the same period • Total U.S. oil consumption increased by 22% between 1980 and 2004 U.S. and EU-15 Oil Consumption per unit GDP and per Capita 30 1.4 Barrels / Person 1.0 20 0.8 15 0.6 10 0.4 5 Barrels / Thousand 2000$ 1.2 25 EU15 Per Capita Oil Consumption U.S. Per Capita Oil Consumption EU15 Oil Intensity U.S. Oil Intensity 0.2 0 0.0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Sources: EIA International Energy Annual 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base, April 26, 2005; International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2006 Edition. U.S. Oil Consumption and Oil Intensity per unit GDP 25 1.2 20 1.0 0.8 15 0.6 10 0.4 5 0.2 0.0 Million Barrels per Day Barrels / Thousand 2000$ 1.4 0 1980 1988 U.S. Oil Intensity 1996 2004 U.S. Crude Oil Consumption Sources: EIA International Energy Annual 2004, http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Population Division, International Programs Center, International Data Base, April 26, 2005; International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, 2006 Edition; EIA International Petroleum Monthly http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table12.xls. Strategic & Commercial Stocks • OECD government-controlled emergency oil stocks: 1.5 billion barrels • OECD commercial stocks held for strategic purposes: 2.7 billion barrels • U.S. strategic petroleum reserve: 688 million barrels • U.S. heating oil reserve: 2.0 million barrels World Crude Oil Strategic Stocks (Government Controlled) 4,500 4,000 Millions of Barrels 3,500 3,000 Germany Other OECD Europe 2,500 2,000 United States South Korea* France 1,500 Japan 1,000 500 0 * Data prior to 1984 not available. ** As of July 2006. Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Data http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/merquery/mer_data.asp?table=T11.03 Million Barrels World Crude Oil Strategic Stocks 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 United States France Germany Government-Controlled Other OECD Europe Industry Japan South Korea China India Planned Capacity Expansion Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Data; Medley Global Advisors Oil Brief “China: Stealth SPR Build,” 10/26/2006; Alexander’s Gas and Oil Connections “India to Build up Storage of Crude Oil” 9/21/2004. U.S. Total Oil Stocks & Strategic Petroleum Reserves 1,600 1,400 Million Barrels 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 Commercial Oil Stocks Strategic Home Heating Oil Reserves 1990 1995 2000 2005 Strategic Petroleum Reserves Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2005 and http://www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/heatingoil/index.html Oil Markets & Prices • Trade in oil is global and integrated • Physical & financial markets: – Global transactions valued at ~$2.5 trillion/year • Physical transactions: ~$167 billion • Futures transactions: ~$299 billion • Over the Counter (OTC) transactions 3-5 fold larger than physical/futures trade World Petroleum Market Structure Asia Europe/Africa Americas Partials Tapis Saudi Grades Nymex WTI Spot WTI Argentina Brazil Columbia Ecuador Peru Venezuela ICE WTI Spot Mars ICE Brent Forward Brent Dated Brent East Coast Canadian Partials Brent Spot LLS OTC Term Minas Partials Dubai UAE Grades Spot Dubai Nigerian, Angolan Grades Futures Term Tapis Saudi Grades P Plus WTI Canadian Grades Australian Grades Mexican Grades Egyptian Grades Oman Dubai Avg. Indonesian Grades Iranian Grades Kuwaiti Grades Saudi Grades Yemeni Grades Libyan, Syrian, Iranian, Algerian Grades Mexican Grades Chinese, Vietnamese Grades Spot Urals Saudi Grades Qatari Grades Physical Definitions: ICE – Intercontinental Exchange; OTC – Over the counter; WTI – West Texas Intermediate; Partials – an artificial unit of 25,000 barrels of Oman and Dubai crude; Dated Brent – cargoes with specific loading dates; TAPIS – a crude oil field in Malaysia that serves the same trading purpose as WTI. Source: ESAI Physical and Financial Oil Markets (ESAI) $2,500 $2,000 $Billion $1,500 Total physical crude Total futures WTI crude $1,000 Notional OTC Trade $500 $- Source: ESAI U.S. Crude Oil Prices 60 Dollars per Barrel 50 40 Nominal 30 2005 Dollars 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005, Crude Oil Domestic First Purchase Prices. Gasoline and Ethanol Wholesale Prices, January 2000 – September 2005 $3.00 Dollars per Gallon $2.50 $2.00 Ethanol $1.50 No-Lead $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Source: Axxis/ACE Transportation sector • Oil consumption – U.S. per capita consumption tracks fuel economy – U.S. per capita consumption nearly double EU-15 per capita consumption • U.S. on-road fuel economy largely unchanged since 1981 • Alternative fuels capability – U.S. AFV fleet approaching 600,000 units – U.S. ethanol production capacity ~ 3.9 billion gallons U.S. Energy Consumption by Sector 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Trillion BTU Transportation Industrial 25,000 Commercial 20,000 Residential Electric Power 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005P Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, Energy Consumption by Sector Transport as Share of Oil Consumption (2003) Australia/New Zealand, 75% U.S., 67% OECD Europe, 56% Brazil, 53% Africa, 53% Canada, 51% Other Non-OECD Asia, 50% Mexico, 49% Other Central and South America, 47% Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 41% Russia, 40% South Korea, 40% Middle East, 39% Japan, 38% China, 36% India, 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2006 http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ieosector.html 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Fuel Economy (MPG) Barrels / Person U.S. - EU-15 Actual On-Road New Vehicle Fuel Economy and Per Capita Oil Consumption U.S. Oil Consumption per Capita (Barrels per Year) EU-15 Oil Consumption per Capita (Barrels per Year) U.S. On Road Fuel Economy (MPG) Source: EIA MPG - Converted to CAFÉ Test Cycle Comparison of Projected Fuel Economy Standards 60 55 Japan 50 EU 45 40 35 Australia Canada China 30 25 U.S. 20 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Adapted from An and Sauer, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, December 2004. Gallons of Gasoline Consumed per Vehicle U.S. Annual Gasoline Consumption per Passenger Vehicle 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Note: Data includes gasoline consumed by Motorcycles, Passenger Vehicles, and Other 2-Axle 4-Tire Vehicles. 1960-94: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics Summary to 1995, http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/summary95/index.html, as of July 28, 2000, table VM-201A. 1995-2004: BTS National Transportation Statistics, Fuel Consumption by Mode of Transportation in Physical Units, http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_05.html and http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/excel/table_01_11.xls. U.S. AFV Fleet Composition 600,000 Number of Vehicles 500,000 LNG 400,000 M85 Electricity 300,000 E85 CNG 200,000 LPG 100,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Estimated Number of Alternative-Fueled Vehicles – EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/datatables/aft1-13_03.html. U.S. Vehicle Fleet and Fuel Flexible Vehicle Fleet 250 240 Millions of Vehicles 230 220 AFV Vehicles Non-AFV Vehicles 210 200 190 180 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P Source: Estimated Number of Alternative-Fueled Vehicles – EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/alternate/page/datatables/aft1-13_03.html; Total U.S. Fleet – USDOT BTS, http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_11.html. Ethanol Production Capacity 4.5 4 3.5 Billion Gallons 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Renewable Fuels Association, http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#A World Ethanol Production 16.0 14.0 South America 12.0 Billion Gallons Africa North and Central America 10.0 Other 8.0 Asia and Oceania China 6.0 Europe Brazil 4.0 United States 2.0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 Source: Renewable Fuels Association, Ethanol Industry Outlook 2005-2007. U.S. Motor Gasoline Consumption Ethanol Production Capacity 160 140 Billion Gallons 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 Motor Gasoline Consumption 1995 2000 2005P Ethanol Production Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb0513c.html Petroleum Sector Emissions • Petroleum sector SOx emissions: 2.2 Million Short Tons • Petroleum sector NOx emissions: 9.7 Million Short Tons • Petroleum sector CO2 emissions: 2.6 Billion Metric Tons • Transportation sector CO2 emissions: 1.9 Billion Metric Tons Source: EIA Environmental Indicators, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/ptb1203.html and EPA National Emissions Inventory, http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/trends/ U.S. CO2 Emissions from Oil 100% 90% 2.50 80% 70% 2.00 60% 50% 1.50 40% 1.00 30% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 CO2 Emissions from Oil CO2 Emissions from Transportation Sector Oil Use Percent of Total U.S. Energy CO2 Emissions Sources: EIA, International Petroleum (Oil) Consumption http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html; EIA, Environment http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/historical_co2.xls 2004 Share of Total CO2 Emissions Billion Metric Tons CO2 / Year 3.00 PSI Development • • • • • • • • • • • DOE/EIA CATO Brookings Institution National Defense University Harvard/JFK School Stanford University Oak Ridge National Laboratory Columbia University Duke University Johns Hopkins University/SAIS Council on Foreign Relations • • • • • • World Resources Institute University of Texas-Austin/CEE Resources for the Future International Monetary Fund CSIS Institute for International Economics • Colorado School of Mines • Rand Corporation • University of California/Berkeley Contact Information Vito Stagliano David Rosner National Commission on Energy Policy 1250 “I” St., NW Suite 350 Washington, DC 20005 Phone: 202-637-0400 vstagliano@energycommission.org drosner@energycommission.org www.energycommission.org