ENERGY:
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Dr. Ron Lembke
Hot, Flat, and Crowded



Hot: Climate Change
Flat: Technology and
Bandwidth
Crowded: More people, who
want to live like us
THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY
International Energy Outlook, 2011, US Energy
Information Admistration, eia.gov
EIA Demand Scenarios
http://www.eia.gov/conf_pdfs/Monday/Sweetnam_eia.pdf
THE SUPPLY OF ENERGY
Hubbert’s Peak
• M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels”
(Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum
Institute, Washington, DC, 1956),
Causality or Correlation?
Where does our oil come from?
US Oil Imports, US EIA
UK, 2.5%
Brazil, 2.6% Ecuador, 1.9%
Virgin Islands,
2.5%
Angola, 3.8%
Kuwait, 2.0%
Iraq, 4.0%
Canada, 24.2%
Colombia, 3.6%
Russia, 6.0%
Mexico, 12.2%
Algeria, 4.9%
Nigeria,
9.8%
Saudi Arabia,
10.5%
Venezuela,
9.5%
When is the Peak? 2004 data
Different Scenarios
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cf
m?id=38&t=6
The Price of energy
Gas Prices 1990-2012
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
Data: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Price of Liquids
Liquid
Wine
Coffee
Coors Light
Big Gulp
milk
Gasoline
Light Sweet Crude
Price
$20
$1.90
$0.75
$1.75
$3.50
$4.50
$100
ounces $/gallon $/cup
25.4
12
12
32
128
128
5,376
$ 100.79
$ 20.27
$
8.00
$
7.00
$
3.50
$
4.50
$
2.38
6.3
1.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.1
The Price of Fuel
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
EIA Predicted Price of Crude Oil, 2011
Death Valley, April 2012
25
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Cents / kwh
NV Electricity Prices
30
1989-2009 prices
LR on 20yrs Data
R2 = 0.907
LR on 10yrs Data
R2 = 0.938
20
15
10
5
0
Elect. Price Data: EIA, 20y Rsq=0.91, 10y Rsq=0.94
Where Does it Come From?
Proven Oil Reserves, CIA Factbook
300,000,000,000
250,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
150,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
United States
China
Qatar
Kazakhstan
Nigeria
Libya
Russia
Venezuela
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Canada
Saudi Arabia
0
United Arab…
50,000,000,000
US Coal Reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=coal_reserves
Pinion Pine Power Plant

DOE Clean Coal
Air-blown Integrated Gasification
Combined Cycle
 $335.9m, half DOE, half SPP
 New gasification method
 New desulfurization method

Carbon Capture & Sequestration



Porous rock formations
Small scale tests
Expensive – lose 30% of electricity gained
 So
make more electricity – It’s CARBON FREE!
 There are other pollutants

What if it gets out?
 Natural
gas stays safely underground
Solar Resources
Geothermal Resources
Wind Resources
Renewables’ Share growing
US Energy Sources
What we use it for
Summary

Demand for energy is going to increase significantly
 Growing
populations
 Rising standards of living

Supply of energy not increasing as fast
 Global
oil supplies are finite
 Peak oil is likely coming in next 40 years
 Alternative energy sources