The Census in American History…
Margo Anderson
History & Urban Studies
Univ. of Wisconsin Milwaukee
53201
margo@uwm.edu
The Census in American History…
• A story of
success…
Mostly…. And
how census
takers in the
past dealt
with the
inevitable
bumps in the
road….
The Census is a ….
• Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in
American political life…
• Rare:
– The 2010 Census is the 23rd in 220 years.
– By comparison we’ve had 44 presidents, and 56
presidential elections. The 111th Congress is
currently in session.
The Census is a ….
• Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in
American political life…
• Repeated:
– Successfully every ten years since 1790, despite
wars, including the Civil War, economic crises,
political turmoil.
The Census is a ….
• Rare, Repeated, Unobtrusive event in American
political life…
• Unobtrusive:
– Most people outside this building don’t remember the
last one, the one before that, the one before that…
– Do you remember where you were on April 1, 2000,
April 1, 1990?
– Compare that to September 11, 2001, or November
22, 1963, or December 7, 1941?
The Census also is….Janus faced
• It always looks both
backwards to where the
country has been and
forward to where it’s
going
– in methods and the
questions asked,
– the results,
– and most clearly in the
reapportionment and
redistricting of political
power each decade
Outline of the Talk
• Census History: constitutional origins and
functions
• Demographic history of US and implications of
growth and change on the political system
• Administrative and Organizational History
• Episodes in the past relevant to current issues.
I. Building the American State
8
9
Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3
• Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned
among the several States which may be included
within this Union, according to their respective
Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the
whole Number of free Persons, including those bound
to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians
not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual
Enumeration shall be made within three Years after
the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States,
and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in
such Manner as they shall by Law direct.
Importance of the Census
• The United States was the first
nation in the history of the world to
take a regular population census and
use it to allocate seats in a national
assembly according to population.
11
Importance of the Census
• The U.S. has had one of the most demographically
dynamic and diverse populations in the history of the
world.
• The combination of the census as mechanism to
adjust power and resources each decade, in
conjunction with the demographic dynamism and
diversity, made the census and the statistical system
truly central to the functioning of the society and
state
12
Importance of the Census
• Dynamism is measured by patterns of population
growth and change
• Diversity involves geographic diversity, group
diversity, and different rates of change for different
parts of the country, and among the groups.
• Hence three levels
– Numerical growth
– Geographic diversity
– Racial and ethnic diversity
13
Numerical Growth
From 3.9 million to 309 million:
Growth
• 13 states have become 50 states.
• House of Representatives grew from 65 to 435
members.
• The average congressional district after the 2010
Census will be larger than the total population of any
of the original 13 states in 1790.
• Growth has been differential: some states and local
areas lose while others gain.
15
Population Growth, 1790-2000
Population (millions)
300
250
UK
200
FR
150
US
100
50
0
Year
Admitting States to the Union
17
Growth in the Size of the House of
Representatives
18
Differential Population Growth: New
York State Population and House
Delegation, 1790-2010
19
Projected Changes in House Seats
after 2010
20
Geographic Diversity
Geographic Diversity:
Westward Expansion
22
Geographic Diversity:
The First Gerrymander, 1812
23
Racial and Ethnic Diversity
Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page
Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171)
Click to see Table
Click to see Census 2000 Brief
http:/www.census.gov
http://census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/white_a.pdf
http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-4.pdf
Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page
Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171)
Click to see Table
Click to see Census 2000 Brief
http://www.census.gov/
http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/black_a.pdf
http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-5.pdf
Click to see Census Bureau Web Home Page
Click to see Redistricting Info (PL-94-171)
Click to see Table
Click to see Census 2000 Brief
http://www.census.gov/
http://www.census.gov/clo/www/redistricting.html
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/atlas/his_lat.pdf
http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-3.pdf
Civil War Demographic Map
Administrative and Organizational
History
Administrative History of the Census,
1790-1902
• From 1790 to 1902, a temporary agency in the
Department of State (1790-1840) or Interior (1850-1902).
• From 1790-1870 the US marshals and their assistants
served as the field staff.
• Over the years, Congress added the collection of
agricultural, manufacturing, mortality, disability statistics
to the decennial.
• A very large administrative operation during the census
period, but administrative discontinuity.
• Congress considered proposals for a permanent census
office but did not act on them until 1902.
31
Early Administrative Leadership
• State Department Era: Informal process, a
“Clerk” appointed by the Secretary
• Interior Department Era:
– A Superintending Clerk (1850-1870) position defined
in statute, appointed by the Secretary
– A Superintendent of the Census (1880-1900) defined
in statute, appointed by the President and confirmed
by the Senate
• Administration of the Census was originally a
young man’s job…
James D.B. Debow,
Appointed, 1853, at Age 33
Francis Amasa Walker,
Appointed, 1869, at Age 29
Appointed in 1849, at Age 36
Technical Innovations in Census Taking
• 1850: The individual level census and the first full scale
tabulation office in Washington
• 1890: Hollerith cards introduced machine tabulation of
the census results
• 1930s: The Bureau sampling to measure unemployment
• 1940: The Bureau introduced sampling into the
decennial census
• 1940s: Statistical methods used for coverage
measurement estimates, a modified demographic
analysis
• 1950: UNIVAC computer processing of the census results
34
Technical innovations…
• 1960: FOSDIC (film optic sensing device for
input to computers) to replace keypunching
• 1960s: First PUMS files available
• 1970: Mail census
• 1980s: Building the TIGER/MAF system
• 2000s: Introduction of ACS (American
Community Survey)
35
Problems of Census Administration
• The Constitutional language is silent on how
to administer the census and how to
apportion Congress.
• From Article 1, Section 2, Paragraph 3:
– The actual Enumeration shall be made within
three Years after the first Meeting of the
Congress of the United States, and within every
subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as
they shall by Law direct.
Problems of Census Administration
• The growth of the country and recognition of
the importance of the census led Congress,
the political parties, the President, and the
public scrutinize the census…..
• And to search for ways to take the census to
support their political agenda
Solutions to the Problems…
• Statutory language defining the census and its
methods
• The development of the science of statistics
and survey research
• The growing administrative expertise of
census officials
• The development of professional communities
to articulate best practices
Example of Statutory Definition of
Positions for Superintendent, Clerks,
Copyists and “Computers,” 1879
Example of Statutory Definition of
Field Supervisors, 1879
Dilemmas…
• But….what if new issues arose?
• Or there was no clear scientific solution?
• Or if the political winds were simply too strong
to resist?
• Thus…the Bumps in the Road….
Examples of Bumps in the Road…
• The Emergence of the Confidentiality
Standard
• Addressing Fraudulent Enumeration and Error
• Dueling Science
• Manipulating Bureau Leadership
I. The Emergence of the Confidentiality
Standard
• Nineteenth century
census practice posted
the individual schedules
in the local area as a
check on accuracy and
completely
• By the mid nineteenth
century, the public
began to raise
objections.
First Efforts at Setting the Standard
• Controlling
Census Field
Staff, 1880
Confronting Ambiguities
• After 1903, the permanent Census Office found
itself faced with requests for individual level data
from other agencies with the Department of
Commerce and Labor.
• President Theodore Roosevelt’s political agenda
involved “trust busting” – investigating and
prosecuting corporations violating federal law.
• Question: Should census manufacturing returns
be available to the Bureau of Corporations,
another agency within the Department, charged
with “trust busting”?
Confronting Ambiguities
• Census officials resisted, and found that the
Secretary was not pleased. As Walter Willcox’
recalled:
– “And, unless my memory or my information is at fault,
when the secretary [of Commerce and Labor] directed
that the census schedules of manufacturing
establishments should be open to the inspection of
officials belonging to another bureau within the same
department (the Bureau of Corporations) and the
director [of the Census Bureau] refused to obey this
order of his superior, because of the pledge of secrecy
under which the information had been obtained, the
matter was debated in the cabinet and the decision
reached that the information on these schedules should
not be so used by the government….”
Result of the Controversy
• Census officials
convinced Congress
to include statutory
language in the 1910
Census law protecting
individual level
returns of
manufacturing and
commerce.
Result of the Controversy
• Edward Dana Durand,
1910 Census Director,
initiated the first
Presidential Census
Proclamation which
included a pledge that
census responses could
not be used for
“taxation, regulation or
investigation.”
Result of the Controversy
• But…
• …the Bureau suffered bureaucratically, as
plans for the agency to become the central
statistical agency failed.
II. Fraudulent Enumerations, 1910
Solving the Problems of Fraudulent
Enumeration
• From 1790-1900, the
temporary census office
had limited resources to
resolve obviously flawed
census results
• The officials knew such
results existed, such as
Omaha’s 1890 count.
Fixing the Problem in Tacoma
• In 1910, the agency had
the capacity to challenge
fraudulent results and
weather the political
storm
• Tacoma was recounted.
• They did not yet have the
tools the measure error…
III. The 1920 Census and Apportionment
• Congress decided in 1910 to stop increasing
the size of the House each decade
• The 1920 Census apportionment was a zero
sum game
• Congress failed to pass a reapportionment law
• Rural interests claimed the results were wrong
• “Scientists” could not agree on an
apportionment method
Major Fractions vs. Equal Proportions
Major Fractions
• First proposed in 1840 by
Daniel Webster
• Used through 1910
• Espoused by Walter Willcox,
former Chief Statistician,
and in the 1920s, Professor
at Cornell
Equal Proportions
• First proposed by Joseph
Hill, Chief Statistician, 1911
• Espoused by Edward V.
Huntington, Professor of
Mathematics at Cornell.
Walter Willcox
Edward V. Huntington
Apportionment Methods
• Huntington convinced a National Academy of Sciences
panel to support equal proportions
• Congress developed an automatic apportionment
trigger to go into effect after the 1930 census, using
“the last method,” which was major fractions
• After the 1940 Census, the results of the two methods
differed.
– Major fractions gave the 435th seat to MI, a Republican
state.
– Equal Proportions gave the 435th seat to AR, a Democratic
state.
Apportionment Methods
• Congress rewrote the 1929 statute to
mandate equal proportions. The method has
been used ever since.
• The best current analysis of apportionment
methods, Balinski and Young’s Fair
Representation,” argues that the method is
biased in favor of small states.
Bias in Apportionment Methods
IV. Influencing the Director … and the
Census
• The statutory requirement of a presidential
appointment and senate confirmation of the
Census Director has remained since 1879.
• As a result, when the administration changes, the
incumbent Census Director resigns.
• As the appointment appears on the presidential
agenda, the census and the ongoing strength of
the statistical system vie with political concerns of
the administration and Congress.
Appointing the Director
• All political parties evaluate the appointment
in political terms.
– Republican example:
• Setting policy with a newly appointed Census Director
in the Nixon administration, 1969
– Democratic example of an intraparty change:
• Replacing William Lane Austin with J.C Capt in the
Roosevelt administration, 1939-1941
Nixon Administration, 1969
Nixon Administration
Roosevelt Administration
Director, 1933-1941
Director, 1941-1949
Careers of Austin and Capt
William Lane Austin
• 1871: Born, Scott County,
MS
• 1897-98, BA and law
degree from U. of
Mississippi
• 1900: Appointed clerk in
Census Office
• 1917: Appointed chief
statistician for agriculture
• 1933: Appointed Census
Director
• 1941: Reached mandatory
retirement age
J.C. Capt
• 1888, Born, Hays County, TX
• 1905-07, Attended Baylor
University
• 1917-1919, Served in Army in
WWI, discharged as Captain
• 1919-1930, private sector
• 1933-34, Field Rep, TX Relief
Commission
• 1934, Appted to FERA,
continued in WPA
• 1939: Appted Special Asst. to
Director, Census Bureau
• 1941: Appointed Census
Director
The Replacement…
• Austin’s Limitations from White House
Perspective (1939)
– Insufficiently attuned to the New Deal agenda,
electoral issues, and the 1940 Census
– Insufficiently attuned to the looming threat of
world war
The Problem: Patronage and the
Upcoming Election
• December 24, 1938: Harry Hopkins appointed
Secretary of Commerce
• July 20, 1939: Secretary Hopkins wrote a “PERSONAL
AND CONFIDENTIAL” (emphasis in original)
memorandum to Undersecretary Edward J. Noble:
– “I want Austin to report directly to me on the 1940 census
and in my absence he should clear any points with Willard
Thorp,” (Assistant Secretary of Commerce and head of the
Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce).
• July 26, 1939: J. C. Capt appointed as a Confidential
Assistant to the Director, Census Bureau
Patronage and the 1940 Census
• Sept. 26, 1939: David Niles (Special Asst to Hopkins) to Missy Le
Hand, FDR’s secretary:
– “The problem I have ... has to do with Mississippi. The President last
week talked with Under Secretary Noble about some of these Census
matters, but ... he [i.e., Noble] is not familiar with these political
nuances. The Mississippi appointments to the Census are further
complicated by the fact that Director Austin of the Census is a devoted
supporter and follower of Senator Pat Harrison. Austin comes from
Mississippi and to him a Democrat is a Democrat, regardless. Austin,
furthermore is not a New Dealer. He has been in the Census Bureau
since 1900 and is a nice old guy ... but whom I have to watch because
he has made promises to those who are not friendly to the President.
I finally had to tell Austin that a few weeks ago that appointments to
the Census were not the province of the Congress but are to be
determined by the President and Secretary Hopkins for whom we are
working.”
Problem: The Census and National
Defense
• September 26, 1939, Niles to LeHand:
– Hopkins wanted to ask the President, “whether
there were any new questions that the President
might want included in the Census questionnaire
because of the war situation. “
– Niles concluded with the comment, “It is not clear
how we could legally use that information
because of the statutes under which the Census
operates.”
The Census and National Defense
• September 26, 1939: Department of Justice
developed draft legislation to amend the Census
Act to permit individual level census data to be
acquired by Naval Intelligence, Military
Intelligence, and the FBI for “national defense.”
• December, 1939: Draft Legislation transmitted to
Census Bureau. Austin opposed it.
• March 1940: Legislation withdrawn.
Transition to Capt
• January 1941: Austin reached mandatory
retirement age and retired.
• February – May 1941: Search for a new
Director.
• January 17, 1941: James Rowe (FDR aide):
“Capt is the man all the Democrats want”
• The White House choice: J.C. Capt
Transition to Capt
• February 20, 1941: Rowe to FDR summarizing the functions of the
Census Director post (“technical competence, administrative ability, and
capacity of contact, particularly with the Congress”)… Capt “is the man
Harry Hopkins is to speak to you about, Harry brought him over ... to
handle the political patronage ... did a splendid job ... [so that] the
Senators and the Congressmen are all for him ... He is intelligent and
capable. Unfortunately, he has no professional background or
standing in his profession. He has absolutely no statistical
background.”
• February 24, 1941, Washington Post, “Census Post Fight,” Capt was
“reported to have the inside track to succeed ... Austin as Census
director, but a hot scramble for the job persists. Capt is a Texan ... [and]
most members of the Texas congressional delegation have urged his
appointment. Capt ... worked for WPA before Harry Hopkins gave him
the Census job. He has done plenty of favors for members of Congress
as he handled Census patronage in the field.”
Summary of Recommendations for Census Director,
by Source of Recommendation, February to April 1942
Recommendation
All sources
Academics
Others
All
recommendations
50
21
29
J.C. Capt
17
0
17
Others
27
15
12
Professional criteria
6
6
0
Appointment
• April 22, 1941: FDR nominated Capt as Census
Director
• April 25, 1941: Capt to FDR thanking the President
for nominating him as Director
• May 13, 1941: Nomination approved unanimously
and without discussion by Senate
• May 21, 1941: Capt took office and wrote to Niles:
“a little while ago I took the oath of office as
Director, Bureau of the Census . ...”
• He told Niles that he was the person “who has
done more than any other person towards placing
me where I now stand.”
Lessons and Conclusions
• Resources:
– Census History website and staff
– Scholarly and popular historical accounts
– Oral history, biography, and the administrative
record
Lessons and Conclusions
• Historical analogies can provide useful
information for current practice
• Historical context can help explain current
practices and orient policy makers facing
decisions
• Historical narratives permits thought exercises to
consider how to examine decisions
• Thank you….for more information, email
margo@uwm.edu