The State of the Church
in Minnesota
1990-2000
Dave Olson
www.TheAmericanChurch.org
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
1
This is a Sample Presentation
It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the
Christian church in Minnesota, and what the complete “State
of the Church in Minnesota” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is
to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and
discuss together the missional challenges in Minnesota that
the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is
available for immediate download at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
2
In 1996,
polls taken immediately after the Presidential election
revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted,
when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the
Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation
in activities that create acceptability within their social
group.
For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have
reported that around 45% of Americans attend church
every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual
attendance counts have shown that the
percentage of people attending church on any
given weekend is much lower than was previously
thought.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
3
The Intent
of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two
key questions:
“How Many People Really Attend Church in
Minnesota Every Week?”
“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or
Backwards in Influence in Minnesota?”
As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of
factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in
Minnesota will begin to take shape.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
4
This study
uses weekend church attendance as a more
reliable and more immediate snapshot of
Christian influence than membership. The
following map shows the percentage of the
population attending a Christian church on any
given weekend in all 50 states in 2000.
Minnesota has an attendance percentage
(23.2%) that is higher than the average for the
nation (18.7%).
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
5
Percentage of Population Attending a Christian
Church on any Given Weekend 2000
11.8%
14.0%
NH
WA
17.5%
11.2%
13.2%
29.4%
MT
23.2%
ND
ME
VT
MN
14.5%
OR
14.4%
11.4%
24.6%
28.0%
ID
14.0%
NY
WI
SD
20.6%
WY
20.3%
CA
20.3%
15.2%
UT
IL
CO
22.7%
KS
AZ
21.7%
IN
WV
22.1%
MO
OK
NM
22.7%
NC
TN
25.0%
28.6% 16.0%
DC
DE
17.7%
MD
23.3%
SC
26.7%
MS
TX
18.0%
VA
KY
AR
19.1%
CT
NJ
17.4%
21.5%
22.0%
17.8%
16.0%
OH
23.5%
14.3%
17.2%
PA
IA
3.1%
NV
RI
20.5%
24.7%
NE
14.8%
20.1%
MI
23.8%
9.7%
MA
15.5%
26.9%
AL
23.3%
GA
29.4%
LA
15.1%
AK
15.1%
13.4%
HI
0.0% to 14.4%
14.4% to 17.5%
17.5% to 20.6%
20.6% to 23.5%
23.5% to 29.4%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
FL
6
The Next Map
shows the percentage of the population
attending a Christian church on any given
weekend in 2000 for each county in
Minnesota.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
7
31.0%
23.7%
Kittson
Roseau
31.9%
Lake Of The Woods
34.6%
Marshall
24.3%
Koochiching
25.8%
16.5%
Pennington
35.3%
26.3%
23.1%
Beltrami
Cook
Red Lake
Polk
15.4%
21.1%
22.5%
Saint Louis
Clearwater
Lake
20.3%
Itasca
27.8%
28.2%
Norman
Mahnomen
22.5%
Hubbard
27.3%
20.6%
16.1%
Becker
Clay
Cass
33.8%
28.2%
28.2%
21.9%
18.9%
Aitkin
Carlton
24.9%
Wadena
Crow Wing
Otter Tail
Wilkin
33.3%
26.0%
36.9%
34.5%
26.2%
Stevens
Pope
Kanabec
Benton
29.0%
36.9%
16.7%
16.5%
Stearns
Sherburne
32.6%
Big Stone
Swift
30.7%
27.9%
Lac Qui Parle
Chippewa
28.1%
25.0%
Kandiyohi
Meeker
31.2%
35.0%
Yellow Medicine
Renville
33.8%
26.6%
Lincoln Lyon
Sibley
22.0%
31.9%
Brown
43.4%
35.0%
Pipestone
Murray
18.4%
Chisago
16.9%
22.4%
22.7%
22.2%
Hennepin RamseyWashington
23.7%
McLeod Carver
23.1%
30.6%
Scott
36.8%
Redwood
Isanti
Anoka
23.2%
Wright
31.3%
2000 Percentage of
the Population at
Worship in Christian
Churches on any
Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest
Maroon = Middle
Beige = Highest
17.1%
24.6%
Traverse
Minnesota Counties
18.0%
Pine
Morrison
Douglas
Grant
32.7%
Todd
29.2%
Mille Lacs
29.9%
22.7%
Nicollet Le Sueur
17.8%
Dakota
23.3%
26.7%
Rice
Goodhue
33.7%
Wabasha
30.8%
43.2%
26.2%
28.3%
29.4%
31.9%
Blue Earth 31.2% Steele
Cottonwood
Dodge Olmsted
Watonwan
Waseca
38.8%
39.0%
29.7%
Rock
Nobles
Jackson
26.9%
Winona
© 34.1%
2004 by
David
T. Olson
26.1%
30.0%
30.3%
36.2%
Fillmore
MartinSample
Not for
Public
UseHouston
Faribault -Freeborn
Mower
36.8%
0.0% to 24.6%
24.6% to 30.8%
30.8% to 44.4%
8
The Next 2 Maps
show the population numbers for each county
in Minnesota. The first map shows the
population of each county. The second map
shows the growth or decline in population for
each county from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
9
5,285
16,338
Kittson
Roseau
4,522
Lake Of The Woods
10,155
Marshall
14,355
Koochiching
13,584
39,650
Pennington
4,299
31,369
5,168
Beltrami
Cook
Red Lake
Polk
200,528
8,423
11,058
Saint Louis
Clearwater
Lake
43,992
Itasca
7,442
5,190
Norman
Mahnomen
18,376
Hubbard
30,000
51,229
27,150
Becker
Clay
Cass
13,713
57,159
7,138
15,301
31,671
Aitkin
Carlton
55,099
Wadena
Crow Wing
Otter Tail
Wilkin
22,330
24,426
4,134
6,289
32,821
Grant
Douglas
10,053
11,236
Todd
26,530
Mille Lacs
14,996
31,712
Morrison
Pine
Kanabec
Minnesota Counties
34,226
Traverse
Benton
133,166
Pope
Stevens
64,417
Stearns
5,820
31,287
Sherburne
11,956
Big Stone
Swift
41,203
22,644
Kandiyohi
Meeker
8,067
13,088
Lac Qui Parle
Chippewa
McLeod
Yellow Medicine
6,429
Lincoln
25,425
Lyon
Wright
17,154
Renville
15,356
16,815
Redwood 26,911
Brown
2000 Population at
Blue = Lowest
Maroon = Middle
Beige = Highest
Chisago
298,084
Anoka
89,986
34,898
11,080
Isanti
41,101
1,116,200
Hennepin
511,035
201,130
RamseyWashington
70,205
Carver89,498
Scott
355,904
Dakota
Sibley
29,771 25,426
56,665
Nicollet Le Sueur
Rice
44,127
Goodhue
21,610
Wabasha
33,680
12,167
55,941
17,731 124,277
11,876 Blue Earth 19,526 Steele
Cottonwood
Dodge Olmsted
Watonwan
Waseca
9,895
9,165
Pipestone
Murray
9,721
20,832
11,268
Rock
Nobles
Jackson
49,985
Winona
©16,181
200432,584
by David
T. 21,122
Olson 19,718
38,603
Martin Sample
Freeborn
FillmoreUse
- Not for
Faribault
MowerPublic
Houston
21,802
0 to 20,000
20,000 to 100,000
100,000 to 1,116,201
10
Complete Presentation has
Map of 2000 Population
Growth for Each County
The Next 2 Slides
show the ethnicity of Minnesota in 1990 and
2000. The third slide shows the growth or
decline in the percentage of the population
for each ethnic group.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
12
1990 Ethnicity of Minnesota
Asian
2%
Non-Hispanic White
Hispanic
1%
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic Black
2%
Asian
Non-Hispanic White
95% T. Olson
© 2004 by David
Sample - Not for Public Use
13
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 2000 Ethnicity
Minnesota 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's
Percentage of the Population
156.8%
160.0%
140.0%
120.0%
87.5%
100.0%
87.4%
80.0%
60.0%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
-6.1%
-20.0%
Non-Hispanic White
Non-Hispanic Black
Hispanic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Asian
15
The Next Graph
shows the attendance numbers for the churches in
Minnesota in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the
growth of Evangelical churches and the decline of
Mainline and Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as
overall worship attendance has remained quite
stable, the population has grown. A more reliable
standard for evaluating increasing or declining
influence is the percentage of the population
attending church on any given weekend, shown in
the second graph.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
16
Minnesota Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000
1,200,000
1,132,317
1,141,876
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
443,699
400,000
324,823
361,524
359,838
429,332
347,061
200,000
© 2004 by David T. Olson
2000 Total
1990 Total
2000 Catholic
1990 Catholic
2000 Mainline
1990 Mainline
2000 Evangelical
1990 Evangelical
-
Complete Presentation has
Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship
Percentage by Category
The Next Graph
is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the
population at churches in each category in
2000. The “Absent” category indicates the
percentage of the population that is not
worshipping at a Christian church on any
given weekend. The second graph shows the
percentage gain or decline for each category
in Minnesota in 1990 and 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
19
Minnesota 2000 Weekly Worship Attendance
Evangelical
7%
Mainline
7%
Catholic
9%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Absent
Absent
77%
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Minnesota - Change in Worship Attendance as a Percentage of Population 1990-2000
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-10.3%
-10.0%
-14.2%
-13.9%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Total
The 3 Next Charts
show the relative strength of the 8 major
denominational groups in Minnesota. The Pie
Chart shows how much Lutherans and
Catholics predominate in Minnesota. The
second and third charts show that all groups
have declined with the exception of the
Baptists, the 3 Sisters and the Pentecostals.
(The 3 Sisters are 3 similar evangelical denominations originally from Sweden, the Baptist General Conference,
the Evangelical Free Church and the Evangelical Covenant Church.)
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
22
Complete Presentation has
Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by
Denominational Families
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Attendance by Denominational
Families
1990 & 2000 Increase or Decrease in Percentage of the Population
in a Christian Church on any Given Weekend by Denominational Family
40.0%
30.9%
30.0%
20.0%
24.5%
18.2%
Baptist
Methodist
10.0%
Lutheran
Reformed
3 Sisters
0.0%
Pentecostal
Catholic
Other
-10.0%
-10.5%
-14.0%
-13.9%
-18.5%
-20.0%
-22.3%
-30.0%
Baptist
Methodist
Lutheran
Reformed
3 Sisters
Pentecostal
Catholic
Other
The Next Chart
shows the 1990 & 2000 average church
attendance by group for both this state and
the nation. The second chart shows the 1990
& 2000 population per church for this state
and the nation. Among states in 2000,
Arkansas has the lowest population per
church with 411 people per church, Utah is
the highest at 4,586 people per church.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
26
1990 & 2000 Minnesota Average Church Attendance
900
794 794
800
700
578 588
600
500
1990 Minnesota
2000 Minnesota
1990 US Average
400
2000 US Average
300
205 207
200
152 163
172 175
158 156
124 131
112 115
100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Total
27
Complete Presentation has
Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000
Population per Church
for State and Nation
The Next 3 Maps
show the attendance percentages for the
Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Minnesota in 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
29
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
for each County
7.4%
5.1%
15.1%
Roseau
Kittson
Lake Of The Woods
12.8%
Marshall
9.8%
Koochiching
8.5%
Pennington
20.7%
9.6%
5.2%
3.2%
Beltrami
Cook
Red Lake
Polk
5.7%
2.4%
6.5%
Saint Louis
Clearwater
Lake
9.0%
Itasca
5.9%
19.2%
Norman
Mahnomen
8.0%
Hubbard
10.0%
6.6%
3.5%
Becker
Clay
Cass
8.0%
9.2%
Wadena
5.8%
8.8%
5.7%
6.5%
Aitkin
Carlton
Crow Wing
Otter Tail
Wilkin
7.2%
12.1%
4.1%
Grant
12.1%
Todd
9.8%
Pine
Morrison
Douglas
8.1%
6.7%
Stevens
Pope
Kanabec
Benton
20.5%
10.0%
3.7%
7.1%
Stearns
Isanti
Sherburne
7.1%
Big Stone
Swift
4.3%
Kandiyohi
4.7%
3.6%
Lac Qui Parle
Chippewa
5.9%
Yellow Medicine
8.8%
10.7%
Lincoln Lyon
Meeker
8.1%
McLeod
8.4%
Renville
5.5%
Sibley
6.6%
10.0%
Redwood
13.7%
Brown
6.9%
13.0%
Pipestone
Murray
Wright
4.9%
Chisago
7.6%
Anoka
9.2%
6.2%
2000 Percentage of
the Population at
Worship in Catholic
Churches on any
Given Sunday
Blue = Lowest
Maroon = Middle
Beige = Highest
3.4%
15.6%
Traverse
Minnesota Counties
5.3%
Mille Lacs
19.7%
7.4%
9.8%
9.1%
Hennepin RamseyWashington
9.0%
Carver
14.3%
Scott
12.1%
Nicollet Le Sueur
8.4%
Dakota
9.0%
6.1%
Rice
Goodhue
15.5%
Wabasha
12.4%
4.7%
9.5%
8.9%
9.6%
8.6%
Blue Earth 12.1% Steele
Cottonwood
Dodge Olmsted
Watonwan
Waseca
6.3%
13.7%
8.4%
7.0%
Rock
Nobles
Jackson
Martin
12.8%
Winona
©12.7%20044.9%by David
T.6.0%
Olson15.5%
11.8%
Fillmore Use
Freeborn
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- Not Mower
for Public
Faribault
Houston
0.0% to 6.7%
6.7% to 9.6%
9.6% to 21.7%
32
The Next Map
shows the growth or decline in the percentage
of the population attending a Christian church
on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for
each county. 9 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 78 counties declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
33
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Christian Church Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
The Next 3 Maps
show the growth or decline of attendance percentages
for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in
each county in Minnesota between 1990 and 2000.
For evangelicals, 34 counties grew in attendance
percentage, while 53 counties declined. For mainline
churches, 5 counties grew in attendance percentage,
while 82 counties declined. For Catholics, 22 counties
grew in attendance percentage, while 65 counties
declined.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
35
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Evangelical Attendance
Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
Complete Presentation has
State Map of 1990 - 2000
Mainline Attendance Percentage
Increase or Decline
for each County
26.0%
69.1%
Kittson
Roseau
-9.3%
Lake Of The Woods
-36.8%
Marshall
6.0%
Koochiching
16.2%
-9.6%
Pennington
32.4%
-12.5%
-27.5%
Beltrami
Cook
Red Lake
Polk
-42.0%
-40.9%
-13.3%
Saint Louis
Clearwater
Lake
30.9%
Itasca
-36.6%
63.0%
Norman
Mahnomen
-12.6%
Hubbard
-16.0%
Becker
-2.7%
Clay
-37.9%
Cass
-17.9%
-15.6%
-22.3%
-13.7%
-32.7%
Aitkin
Carlton
-16.1%
Wadena
Crow Wing
Otter Tail
Wilkin
-28.5%
-13.8%
-38.7%
Todd
-6.4%
-8.6%
Grant
Douglas
Pine
Morrison
-16.4%
Kanabec
Benton
-12.3%
Stevens
-24.2%
Pope
Isanti
Sherburne
Swift
-19.8%
Lac Qui Parle
-13.1%
-20.0%
Kandiyohi
-11.0%
Chippewa
Meeker
-13.5%
10.5%
McLeod
Yellow Medicine
-21.5%
-25.9%
-15.5%
Lincoln Lyon
-3.4%
-17.2%
-1.0%
Hennepin RamseyWashington
3.3%
Carver
12.0%
-15.9%
Scott
Dakota
-22.2%
Renville
Chisago
Anoka
-2.2%
Wright
-13.6%
-16.2%
-19.1%
Big Stone
Sibley
-20.1%
Redwood -11.1%
-14.0%
-21.5%
-11.7%
2.6%
Rice
Goodhue
Nicollet Le Sueur
Brown
4.7%
Pipestone
-1.9%
Murray
-11.3%
Cottonwood
Watonwan
10.3%
4.5%
Rock
Nobles
Jackson
Blue Earth
-2.6%
Wabasha
5.0%
-5.7%
11.0%
41.8%
1990 - 2000 Growth
or Decline in Percentage
of the Population at
Worship in Catholic
Churches on any
Given Sunday
-15.7%
-29.3%
Stearns
2.2%
Minnesota Counties
-32.7%
-29.0%
Traverse
-24.5%
Mille Lacs
-27.0%
-6.9% Steele
45.9%
-5.5%
Dodge Olmsted
2.6%
Winona
© 2004
by
David
T. Olson
-5.1%
-25.0%
8.5%
6.9%
-5.3%
Martin
Fillmore
Sample
Not for
Public
UseHouston
Faribault - Freeborn
Mower
-0.2%
Waseca
Decline
Growth
38
The Final Chart
shows the net gain in the number of churches
in Minnesota in the past decade. There was a
net loss of 26 churches. However, 667
churches were needed to keep up with
population growth from 1990 - 2000.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
39
Increase in Number of Churches in Minnesota Between 1990 & 2000
700
667
600
500
400
300
200
100
79
0
-65
-38
-26
-100
Evangelical
Mainline
Catholic
Total Gain
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
Increase Needed to
Maintain 1990 Ratio of
Churches to
Population
40
The State of the Church in
Minnesota . . .



Church attendance is highest in the southwest part of
Minnesota and declines as to the northeast.
While church attendance has grown for only the
Evangelicals, the percentage of the population
attending church has been declining for all three
groups. This has resulted in a 10% loss in the statewide percentage of the population that attended church
between 1990 and 2000.
A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient
net gain in the number of churches in Minnesota. Six
hundred and ninety-three additional churches needed
to have been started in the previous decade to
compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
41
For More Information . . .



Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for
additional information on the American Church.
12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm
The complete Minnesota Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMN20.htm

The Complete Minneapolis/St. Paul Powerpoint presentation is available at
http://www.theamericanchurch.org/me/met45.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Minnesota and Twin Cities Powerpoints) is
available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MN0.htm
© 2004 by David T. Olson
Sample - Not for Public Use
42
Information on the
Information







The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend
can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who
showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest
that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline.
Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The
Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been
included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled.
African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches.
This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the
average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on
the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as
accurate an estimate as possible.
Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches
than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the
1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along
with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches.
In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making
numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from
1/3rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar
dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located.
Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size
nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study.
This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular
attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a
simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of
Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other
religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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This Presentation
is based on a nationwide study of American church
attendance, as reported by churches and denominations.
The database currently has average worship attendances
for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual
churches.
It also uses supplementary information (actual membership
numbers correlated with accurate membership to
attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other
denominational and independent churches. All told,
accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox
Christian churches.1
1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and
perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and
increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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44
For More Information . . .


Presentations such as this are available for the largest
100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the
nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to
show what is happening in the American church.
Presentations are available either by direct download,
CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org
for ordering information.
To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at
DaveTOlson@aol.com.
© 2004 by David T. Olson
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45