Meeting 4/5/15

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President
Vice-President
Director of Technology
Director of Marketing
Director of Group Simulations
Director of Finance
Director of Outside Events
Director of Research
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Payroll jobs increased by a mere 126,000 in
March, significantly below the 247,000 which
was expected
 Private payrolls increased by 129,000 below the
240,000
 March increase much lower than January and
February numbers
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Average hourly earnings rose by .3 percent,
marginally above analyst expectations.
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Personal income growth was moderately
healthy, posing a gain of .3 percent
Wages and salaries component increased
.6%, larger than in the prior months
Might have been boosted by increases in the
minimum wage
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Biotech Sector down 5% for the week (Although
Friday saw 2%+ in gains)
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Gilead (GILD) observed a “potentially fatal reaction”
for patients that used its Hepatitis C drugs
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Gilead’s drugs have been so successful that this news
“threatened investor confidence” in the entire Biotech
sector
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Gilead is currently trading at 13.7 times earnings vs
current 50 P/E for Sector
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Value (Low P/E):
 Truly undervalued/under-recognized by Market
 Peak earnings – low growth ahead (value trap!)
 Distressed/Turnaround Security (Buffett:
“Turnarounds rarely work…”)
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Growth (High P/E):
 Company has more growth potential and…
 RISK: The more growth priced into stock; the higher
the chance of that growth not materializing (or at
least not to the market’s expectations)
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Spector of Interest Rate hike
Lowered rates in Japan and Eurozone
strength in US economy vs abroad
More expensive dollar and cheaper foreign
currencies
Ex. Dollar buys .91 Euros vs previous .7-.8 for
last 5 years
 Equal < depreciation in other currencies against
US dollar
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Viewpoint: Europe Manufacturer (example)
 Buying US goods: More Expensive
 Selling to US companies (raw materials, etc.): Easier
since Euro goods are cheaper
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Viewpoint: US Manufacturers (example)
 Buying US goods vs Euro: More expensive
 Buying Euro goods: Less expensive
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US Imports will increase; exports will decrease;
potentially affecting US economy adversely…
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Important to understand supply chain!!!
Winners:
 Euro Manufacturers selling to US Companies
 Euro companies buying Euro goods
 US companies buying Euro Goods (raw materials, etc.)
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Losers:
 US companies selling to other US companies that sell goods
abroad
 US companies that rely on US made goods (as opposed to Euro
goods)
 Euro companies that sell only to Euro markets (missed
opportunity)
 US companies that sell goods to foreign markets
(conglomerates, etc.)
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3G Capital and Berkshire Hathaway teamed
up to create a new company through the
merger of H.J. Heinz Co. and The Kraft Foods
Group.
Will Create the 3rd largest food producer in
the U.S. and 5th largest in the world.
Deal is valued around $45 billion.
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Shareholders of Heinz will hold a 51% stake in
the new company, including 3G and
Berkshire.
The remaining 49% will go towards Kraft
Shareholders.
In addition, the Kraft shareholders will
receive a one time dividend of $16.50/share.
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Heinz derives 60% of sales outside of North
America, 25% of which comes from emerging
markets. Kraft derives 98% of sales from the
North America.
However, due to previous agreements with
Mondelez, Kraft can’t bring Velveeta, Planters
or Lunchable brands international.
Expected to have $1.5 in cost synergies,
largely due to a larger volume in sales.
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