Two Theories about Congress
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In Congress, Pork Stays on Menu
(Washington Post headline)
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Can Congress pass legislation that is in the
public interest?
 Fiorina– purposive theories
 Bessette- serious lawmakers
What skills or attributes do we
want in a President?
The Impossible Presidency?
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We want presidents who are
 Powerful, but we place limits on power
 Kind and caring/ruthless and cunning
 Common person/ Hero or visionary
 Above politics/master politician
 Unify nation/make tough decisions
 Have vision thing/responsive to will of people
President- Great Expectations
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Economy
World peace
Education
Environment
Health care
Morality
Heating oil prices
Vision thing
Many Roles for President
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Chief of State
Manager of the Economy
Chief Executive
Commander-in-Chief
Chief Diplomat
Chief Legislator
Chief of the Party
World Leader
Presidential Power
Empirical Question
 How powerful is the president?
 Normative Question
 How powerful should the president be?
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Methods of Presidential
Candidate Selection
Caucus System (1789 -1830’s)
 National Convention (since 1830’s)
 Primary Elections (Present)
 Frontloading
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Implications of Primaries
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Weakens gatekeeper role for parties (Buchanan,
Forbes, Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson)
Gives power to ideological activists
Different type of candidate running (McCain)
Diminish electability (Gays in military, Private
school in SC)
Hurt governability (read my lips)
popular mandate from people, not Party
 New Democrat, compassionate conservative
National Elections
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Electoral College
 Election strategy
 Partisan Lock
 Disenfranchisement
 False mandates
 Clinton in 1992 43% of vote, 68.8% of EC
 Chance of a Misfire?
97.6%
96.4%
90.8%
87.3%
83.6%
90.3%
84.9%
80.5%
79.1%
76.4%
75.1%
9.7%
55.9%
52.9%
58.8%
55.3%
50.6%50.7%
50.1%
53.4%
43.4%
67.7%
53.5%52.4%
50.4%
49.3% 48.1%
Winner % of Popular Vote
Winner % of District System
Average
2000 R
1996 D
1984 R
1980 R
43.0%
1976 D
1964 D
1960 D
1956 R
1952 R
49.7%
45.5%
61.0%
68.8% 68.4%
64.4%
60.0%
1992 D
61.1%
56.3%
1972 R
57.4%
1968 R
1%
69.2%
1988 R
82.2%
86.4%
Winner % of Unit System
1968
1972
1976
1980
1988
1992
1996
2000 Battleground States
Presidential Elections
Long
 Expensive
 Discourages good candidates?
 Potential source of Power?
 Predictions for 2000
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Constitutional Basics
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Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70.
Engergy in the Executive
 one person office
 elected for a fixed term
 national constituency
 Vague formal powers from Constitution
Evolution of the Presidency
1800-1933 Period of Congressional
Supremacy
 Main federal policies were very
individualized or particularistic
 E.g. -roads or canals, tariffs for particular
industries
 President is chief clerk
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The Modern Presidency
Great Depression, 38% unemployment
 More interventionist role for government
 Entitlement programs like SS, farm
supports, right to organize create
 Political constituency for Pres power
 Organizational basis for Pres power
 Media=Direct link betw Pres and people
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Hallmarks of the Modern
Presidency
Increased Popular Linkage with Public
 Going Public
 Presidential Selection
 Increased institutional powers
 Creation of Institutional Presidency
 War-making
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Presidential Approval
Going Public Strategy
 Gallup Poll since 1948
 “Do you approve or disapprove of the
way ___ is handling his job as president”
 Why the Framers would be horrified
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Public Approval of President
Honeymoon
 General decline
 Economy
 Rally events and scandals
 Beyond Presidential Control
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Does PopularitySuccess?
Eisenhower and Bush– popular presidents
 Nixon and Ford– unpopular presidents
 Clinton’s uneven record
 Truman, “A man who is influenced by the
polls or is afraid to make decision which
may make him unpopular is not a man to
represent the welfare of the country”
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Institutional Presidency
Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants
 Brownlow Committee
 “The president needs help”
 President not Congress should be in charge
of executive branch
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Implications of Instit. Pres
Radical change in system of government?
 Increased presidential control of policy
making and centralization of the decision
making
 Increases potential for screw ups
 Iran Contra
 Reduced accountability
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Ranking Post WW II Presidents
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Good/Great
 Truman
 Eisenhower
 JFK
– LBJ
– Reagan
– Clinton
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Bad/Failures
 Nixon
 Ford
 Carter
 Bush
World’s Greatest Clerkship
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Neustadt, 1960 Presidential Power
 power of president do not flow from
literary reading of constitution
 "The conditions that promote his
leadership in form, preclude a guarantee
of leadership in fact."
 “presidential power is power to persuade”
Informal Powers
Professional reputation
 Electoral results
 Bargaining
 Carrot and the stick
 Marshalling public opinion (going public)
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Presidential War-making
Madison-- the power to declare war is fully
and exclusively vested in the legislature
 Congress- declare war
 Pres C-in C
 Two Presidencies Thesis
 War Powers Resolution
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Presidential Power- 2 views
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It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to
do anything that the needs of the nation demanded
unless such action was forbidden by the
Congress." T. Roosevelt
"The President [may] assume just about as much
power as he is capable of handling." JFK
The president can exercise no power which cannot
be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific
grant of power .. either in the federal constitution
or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined
residuum of power which he can exercise because
it seems to him to be in the public interest.
Normative Question
FDR, JFK, Savior model- 1950s and 60s
 LBJ, Nixon Satan model, or Imperial
Presidency
 Ford, Carter Sampson model
 Reagan– partisan presidency
 Neustadt vs. Miroff
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Barber on Presidential Character
Voters should ask 2 questions
1. How much energy does the president
invest in his presidency
2. Relatively speaking, does he seem to
experience his political life as happy or sad
Positive
Negative
Active
Jefferson,
FDR, JFK,
Truman,
Ford, Bush
Carter,
Clinton
Adams,
Wilson,
Hoover,
LBJ, Nixon
Passive
Madison,
Taft,
Harding,
Reagan
Washington
Coolidge,
Eisenhower
Limits of Barber’s theory
No basis in psychology or Personality
theory
 Easy to apply? Aren’t all candidates
energetic?
 Healthy political personality is no predictor
of political success
 Book of the Week
 David Maraniss; First in His Class
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