Global Burden of Disease: An Introduction Designing Strategies for Neglected Disease Research Jan 20, 2009 Law 284.26, Public Policy 290, 190 Kirk R. Smith Professor of Global Environmental Health What is health? • “Health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity.” – First of nine principles on first page of World Health Organization Constitution adopted in NYC in July 1946 by 61 nations – “spiritual well-being” added in 1999 by World Health Assembly, which at that time had 191 member states • http://www.ldb.org/iphw/whoconst.htm How would this be operationalized for the following common queries? • What is the total impact of disease and injury in the population? -- the overall target for public health interventions? – Which diseases are most important for which groups? – Are things getting better or worse? • How do we compare the impacts of different risk factors and potential interventions that affect different populations? – For example, what is the burden of disease from environmental factors? – How does the impact of tobacco smoking compare to that from air pollution? Environmental Health Effects • Example of results from outdoor air pollution studies – – – – – – – – – – – – Asthma attacks Missing workdays Missing school days Days with cough Emergency room visits Hospital admissions Physician visits Medication use Daily death rate Lung function Self-reported health status Etc. • How can these be compared across time, cities, countries, age groups, sectors (e.g., transport versus power plants), etc.? • Let alone compared with the health impacts from completely different risk factors, such as water pollution, lead exposure, high cholesterol, unsafe sex, etc.? Ultimate Measure of Ill-health? • Death is most common – Easy to determine – Commonly tabulated • Severe problems as a measure – Everyone dies – Health never achieved – Age is clearly important • Deaths + Illness = ? Combined Measure • What else to use? – Money? Are you kidding? – Is used in legal and other realms, but not appropriate for public health • Most fundamental deprivation is loss of time: – Same potential life length shared by all humans – The degree to which a person does not achieve this life length is a measure of ill-health – Can be used for disabilities, as well, but need to weight relative severity of disabilities as well as tabulate their duration Health Adjusted Life Years HALY • Basically the number of fully healthy life years lost to a particular disease or risk factor. • Considers the age at which the disease or death occurs and the duration and severity of any disability created. Global Burden of Disease Database • Developed at Harvard University originally for the World Bank • Extended greatly in the mid-1990s and now adopted by the World Health Organization – Updated database published on web each year and summarized in World Health Report • Dozens of countries now have NBDs • Even states (provinces) and cities have them, including SF and LA Need for a C4 Database in Health (Which we have had in many other fields for long periods) • Combined mortality and morbidity • Complete – Much of the world unrepresented in past databases – Many important disabilities unaccounted • Consistent definitions of disease states • Coherent – Deaths by disease need to add to total • By age and sex • Match with demographic stats – No natural discipline, i.e. no import stats from the afterlife tabulating how many died of what Just having coherence in mortality is valuable Global Deaths in 2002 Total Global Deaths in 2002: 57 million 25 LDCs 20 MDCs Total Population LDCs – 4.78 billion MDCs – 1.45 billion 15 Million Deaths 10 5 0 0-4 5-14 15-29 30-44 Age Groups 45-59 60-69 70+ Disability Adjusted Life Year The DALY, a kind of HALY • Principle #1: The only differences in the rating of a death or disability should be due to age and sex, not to income, culture, location, social class. • Principle #2: Everyone in the world has right to best life expectancy in world • DALY = YLL + YLD – Years of Lost Life (due to mortality) – Years Lost to Disability (due to injury & illness) Years of Lost Life: Examples Age at Death 0 1 5 15 25 35 50 80 100 100 Female 82.5 81.8 78.0 68.0 58.2 48.4 34.0 8.9 2.0 Male 80.0 79.5 75.4 65.4 55.5 45.6 31.0 7.5 1.5 What is Meant by “Disability?” • Impairment: Symptoms at organ level, e.g., broken leg • Disability: Objective alteration of behavior or performance at the individual level, e.g., cannot walk • “Handicap”: Changed interaction with others at the social/environmental level, e.g., cannot work • http://www.disabilityhelper.com/DisabilityImpairment-Handicap.htm Schema for Assessing Non-fatal Health Outcomes Disease Impairment Disability “Handicap” Polio Paralyzed legs Inability to walk Unemployed Brain injury Mild mental retardation Difficulty learning Social isolation Whom do you ask to determine disability weights? • • • • • • • Patient Family Caregiver Used in GBD Health professional Public health experts Public at large Insurance companies and lawyers (court cases) When do you ask? 1.0 Reported Disability Weight Accident Time Classes of Disability Weights, with examples 1: 0-0.02 2: 0.02-0.12 3: 0.12-0.24 4: 0.24-0.36 5: 0.36-0.5 6: 0.5-0.7 7: 0.7-1.00 Vitiligo on face Diarrhea, sore throat Radius fracture in stiff cast Below the knee amputation Down syndrome, COPD Unipolar depression, tetanus Psychosis, quadriplegia Top Ten Causes of Disability in 15-44 year olds (2000) Percent of Total YLDs Male Unipolar depression Alcohol disorders Schizophrenia Bipolar depression Fe-Deficiency anaemia Hearing loss Road traffic HIV/AIDS Drug use COPD Obstructed labor Chlamydia Abortion Panic disorder Female 13.9 18.6 10.1 5 4.8 5 4.4 4.2 5.4 4.1 3.6 3.8 3.2 2.5 3 2.6 4 3.3 3.1 2.8 Sample DALY Calculations Diseases A and B • A. 100,000 children are stricken for 1 week with a disability weighting of 0.3; 2% die at 1 year old. • B. 100,000 adults are stricken for 2 years with a disability weighting of 0.6; 20% die at 80 years old. • A: YLL (= 2000 x 80) + YLD (=100k x (7/365) x 0.3) = 160,000 + 575 = 160,600 • B: YLL (= 20,000 x 8) + YLD (=100k x 2 x 0.6) = 160,000 + 120,000 = 280,000 Global Burden of Disease Database World Health Organization Being completely updated 2007-2009 Occam's Razor • “One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything” • Occam's razor is a logical principle attributed to the 14th Century philosopher William of Occam (or Ockham). The principle states that one should not make more assumptions than the minimum needed. This principle is often called the Principle of Parsimony The DALY Passes Occam’s razor criterion, because it reveals something different from deaths Deaths 12.4% 12.3% 9.2% 7.1% 5.3% 4.4% 3.8% DALYs 5.3% (4) 3.8% (7) 3.1% (9) 6.6% (1) 6.1% (3) 6.2% (2) 4.2% (6) ? - Depression 0.03% 5.3 % (5) 1 – Cancer 2 - Heart 3 - Stroke 4 - ARI 5 - HIV 7 – Perinatal 8 - Diarrhea Examples of Using a C4 database: World DALYS Lost (2000) Pop Deaths Deaths million million per 1000 DALYs DALYs million Per Death LDCs 4693 43.3 9.2 1256 29.0 MDCs 1352 12.4 9.2 216 17.4 World 6045 55.7 9.2 1472 26.4 Impact of Development on Women and Children W & C share of Pop W & C share of DALYs 66% 71% Western Europe 60% 49% World 67% South Asia 65% Children under 15 years in 2000 2000 Heart (Ischaemic) Cancer Stroke A RI HIV COPD Perinatal Diarrhea TB World Deaths in 2000 Child Cluster Road Traf f ic 0 5 10 Pe r ce nt of Total 15 Child Cluster Diseases: the World’s Largest Scandal • 1.4 million children • Rates in LDCs are thousands of times those in MDCs (Africa = 4700x that of W. Europe) • Vaccine coverage in Africa went from 60% in 1990 to 46% in 1999 • Has stayed at 70% in South Asia for many years Total Global Deaths in <5y Measles T etanus Pertussis Diphtheria Poliomyelitis 777000 309000 296000 3400 675 Relative Risks between Poor Africa and USA • Chance of woman dying in childbirth: 400 times greater • Child dying of diarrhea: 400 times • Of pneumonia: 500 times • Of measles: 4000 times • Similar in South Asia (India, Bangladesh, etc) 2000 ARI Perinatal HIV Depres s ion The major disease targets for public health interventions in the world today Cancer Diarrhea Heart (Is chaem ic) Child Clus ter Malnutrition Stroke Almost all Women & Children Road Traffic Malaria TB Maternal World DALYs in 2000 COPD Congenital 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 Percent of Total 5.0 6.0 7.0 2000 2000 2000 Cancer Heart (Ischaemic) Stroke COPD North America - Deaths ARI Diabetes Dementia 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Percent of Total 20.0 25.0 2000 2000 North America - DALYs 2000 Cancer Depres s ion Heart (Is chaem ic) Alcohol Stroke Road Traffic The major disease targets for public health interventions in the USA Dem entia Diabetes COPD Hearing los s Os teoarthritis 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Percent of Total 10.0 12.0 14.0 DALD/capita 2000 0 50 100 150 200 Very poor Africa 222 Poor Africa 178 Poor Eastern Med 118 107 Poor South Asia All Men 92 Former USSR 90 Poor Latin America 86 All Women 86 Middle income South Asia 67 Eastern Europe 67 China + 59 Middle income Eastern Med 59 North America Japan, Australia + Global 75 Middle income Latin America Western Europe 250 52 47 39 Disability Adjusted Lost Days = DALY x 365 600 DALDs Per Capita by Age Group 2000 500 Annual loss per person 400 300 Selected World Regions 200 100 0 0-4 5-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Very poor Africa 548 57 174 264 191 193 218 212 Poor South Asia 307 44 75 80 114 157 169 159 Poor Latin America 198 34 74 75 93 120 140 160 Middle Income East Asia 146 24 44 43 67 107 139 158 North America 35 14 51 43 58 87 110 111 Western Europe 29 11 39 33 48 79 98 110 Japan/Australia 32 13 31 27 41 59 75 91 The Classic Epidemiological Transition Infectious Diseases NonCommunicable Diseases Time CVD Cancer Disease Categories • I - Traditional, Communicable – Infectious, maternal, perinatal, nutritional • II - Modern, Non-communicable – Cancer, heart, neuro-psychiatric, chronic lung, diabetes, congenital • III - Injuries, Non-Transitional – Unintentional • Motor vehicle, poisoning, falls, fire, drowning – Intentional • Suicide, violence, war Classic Epi Transition • I. Infectious diseases decline during development • II. Chronic disease rise during development • III. Injuries show no pattern during development and are thus “non-transitional” Empirical Test of the Epi Tranistion • Does it hold up to examination using the first C4 database? • Classic epidemiologic transition only deals with mortality, thus here termed the “Mortality Transition” • “Epidemiologic Transition” here applied to same evaluation using DALYs Epidemiological Transition - Age Adjusted Income Group Low 168 Lower Middle 46 Upper Middle 111 32 High 9 World 120 87 50 37 28 25 12 98 0 129 112 100 150 29 200 250 300 DALYs per thousand I - "Infectious" II - "Chronic" III - Injuries 350 400 Epi Transition: Updated • In terms of actual age-adjusted impact on populations, all classes of disease decline during development – I. Declines dramatically at every level – II. Declines slowly, but with little decline seen across middle income regions – III. Declines in a similar way to II and thus is not “nontransitional” • Better to be rich for all major types of ill-health, although there are exceptions for individual diseases Comparison of GBD Estimates for 2005 with GBD for 1990 • • • • • • • Population: 5.3/6.4 billion (+21%) Deaths: 50/64 million (+28%) DALYs: +7% DALYS/capita: -11% I = 44/38.5%; II = 41/48.9%; III = 15/12.5% WHO Databases Changes in Important Diseases: 1990-2005 What is happening with each? • • • • • • • Diarrhea: 7.3/3.9% (-42% in absolute terms) ARI: 8.5/5.9% (-25%) Malaria: 2.3/2.3% (-6%) Lung Cancer: 0.65/0.8% (+32%) TB: 2.8/2.1% (-18%) HIV: 0.8/5.6% (7.4 times as much) Depression: 4.7/5.8 (+29%) WHO Databases Can we reach public health? • Is there a absolute value of health (lost DALYs) beyond which society does not have an obligation to exceed? • Is there a cost per unit improvement in health ($ per DALY) above which society does not benefit from further expenditure? Global Burden of Disease from Top 10 Risk Factors plus se le cte d othe r risk factors Underweight Unsafe sex Blood pressure 4.9 million deaths/y Tobacco Alcohol Unsafe water/sanitation Child cluster vaccination* Cholesterol Lack of Malaria control* Indoor smoke from solid fuels Environmental Risk Factors Overweight Occupational hazarads (5 kinds) Road traffic accidents* Physical inactivity Lead (Pb) pollution Urban outdoor air pollution Climate change World Health Reports – 2002, 2001 0% 2% 4% 6% Percent of All DALYs in 2000 8% 10% Entry into GBD databases • Best single modern book covering the GBD and CRA ideas, methods, and results, but without full detail and sophistication/complexity: Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors, (Lopez, Mathers, Ezzati, Jamison, Murray) Oxford University and World Bank Presses, 2006. 475 pp. Fully downloadable at http://www.dcp2.org/pubs/GBD which also has links to data used in the book. • Best single page to find GBD data divided by world regions defined in several ways (WHO regions, World Bank regions, income groups etc.) for 2004. http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/2004_report_updat e/en/index.html • For projections to 2030 and links to dozens of other publications, see http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/en/index.html • The full set of background materials and pubs of the previous (2004) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) covering 26 major risk factors, environmental and other: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/cra/en/index.html • Full databases for the previous CRA study: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/risk_factors/en/inde x.html • Description of the GBD/CRA 2005 Revisions now underway: http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GBD_2005_study/ en/index.html Kirk R. Smith krksmith@berkeley.edu http://ehs.sph.berkeley.edu/krsmith/ Thank you.